4Flu - an individual based simulation tool to study the effects of quadrivalent vaccination on seasonal influenza in Germany

Comparison of Post-Vaccination Cellular Immune Response in Patients with Common Variable Immune Deficiency

BACKGROUND

The problem of identifying vaccine-specific T-cell responses is still a matter of debate. Currently, there are no universal, clearly defined, agreed upon criteria for assessing the effectiveness of vaccinations and their immunogenicity for the cellular component of immunity, even for healthy people. But for patients with inborn errors of immunity (IEI), especially those with antibody deficiencies, evaluating cellular immunity holds significant importance.

AIM

To examine the effect of one and two doses of inactivated adjuvanted subunit influenza vaccines on the expression of endosomal Toll-like receptors (TLRs) on the immune cells and the primary lymphocyte subpopulations in patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

During 2018-2019, six CVID patients received one dose of a quadrivalent adjuvanted influenza vaccine; in 2019-2020, nine patients were vaccinated with two doses of a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine. The proportion of key lymphocyte subpopulations and expression levels of TLRs were analyzed using flow cytometry with monoclonal antibodies.

RESULTS

No statistically significant alterations in the absolute values of the main lymphocyte subpopulations were observed in CVID patients before or after vaccination with the different immunization protocols. However, after vaccination, a higher expression of TLR3 and TLR9 in granulocytes, monocytes, and lymphocytes was found in those patients who received two vaccine doses rather than one single dose.

CONCLUSION

This study marks the first instance of using a simultaneous two-dose vaccination, which is associated with an elevated level of TLR expression in the immune cells. Administration of the adjuvanted vaccines in CVID patients appears promising. Further research into their impact on innate immunity and the development of more effective vaccination regimens is warranted.

Exploring the impact of population ageing on the spread of emerging respiratory infections and the associated burden of mortality

BACKGROUND

Increasing life expectancy and persistently low fertility levels have led to old population age structures in most high-income countries, and population ageing is expected to continue or even accelerate in the coming decades. While older adults on average have few interactions that potentially could lead to disease transmission, their morbidity and mortality due to infectious diseases, respiratory infections in particular, remain substantial. We aim to explore how population ageing affects the future transmission dynamics and mortality burden of emerging respiratory infections.

METHODS

Using longitudinal individual-level data from population registers, we model the Belgian population with evolving age and household structures, and explicitly consider long-term care facilities (LTCFs). Three scenarios are presented for the future proportion of older adults living in LTCFs. For each demographic scenario, we simulate outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 and a novel influenza A virus in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 and distinguish between household and community transmission. We estimate attack rates by age and household size/type, as well as disease-related deaths and the associated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost.

RESULTS

As the population is ageing, small households and LTCFs become more prevalent. Additionally, families with children become smaller (i.e. low fertility, single-parent families). The overall attack rate slightly decreases as the population is ageing, but to a larger degree for influenza than for SARS-CoV-2 due to differential age-specific attack rates. Nevertheless, the number of deaths and QALY losses per 1,000 people is increasing for both infections and at a speed influenced by the share living in LTCFs.

CONCLUSION

Population ageing is associated with smaller outbreaks of COVID-19 and influenza, but at the same time it is causing a substantially larger burden of mortality, even if the proportion of LTCF residents were to decrease. These relationships are influenced by age patterns in epidemiological parameters. Not only the shift in the age distribution, but also the induced changes in the household structures are important to consider when assessing the potential impact of population ageing on the transmission and burden of emerging respiratory infections.

Expression of Toll-like Receptors on the Immune Cells in Patients with Common Variable Immune Deficiency after Different Schemes of Influenza Vaccination

BACKGROUND

for the first time, the effect of one and two doses of adjuvanted influenza vaccines on toll-like receptors (TLRs) in patients with common variable immunodeficiency (CVID) was studied and compared (primary vaccination with one vs. two doses, primary vs. repeated vaccination).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Six patients received one dose of quadrivalent adjuvanted influenza vaccine during the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 influenza seasons, and nine patients with CVID received two doses of trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine during 2019-2020. Expression of TLRs was measured by flow cytometry.

RESULTS

The expression of toll-like receptors in patients with CVID was noted both with repeated (annual) administration of the influenza vaccine and in most cases was accompanied by an increase in the proportion of granulocytes (TLR3 and TLR9), lymphocytes (TLR3 and TLR8), and monocytes (TLR3 and TLR9). When carried out for the first time as a simultaneous vaccination with two doses it was accompanied by an increase in the proportion of granulocytes, lymphocytes expressing TLR9, and on monocytes-TLR3 and TLR9.

CONCLUSION

in CVID patients, the use of adjuvanted vaccines is promising, and research on the influence of the innate immunity and more effective regimens should be continued.

Immunogenicity and safety of inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine compared with the trivalent vaccine for influenza infection: an overview of systematic reviews

BACKGROUND

Influenza infection is a highly preventable transmissible viral disease associated with mild upper respiratory symptoms and more severe conditions such as lethal pneumonia. Studies have shown that a broader spectrum influenza vaccine could reduce influenza's burden of disease in low- and middle-income countries. A considerable number of systematic reviews reported that quadrivalent influenza vaccines are considered more effective compared to trivalent vaccines, hence, there is a need for an overview in order to synthesize the current evidence pertaining to the comparison between quadrivalent and trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to summarize the evidence from systematic reviews that investigated the immunogenicity and safety of the Influenza's inactivated quadrivalent vaccine (QIV) compared to the trivalent vaccine (TIV), in the general population.

METHODS

We searched articles up to December 2022 at: Web of Science, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Cochrane Library, and SCOPUS. The search strategy was conducted following the PICO model. We included systematic reviews comparing the primary outcomes of immunogenicity (seroprotection rate and seroconversion rate) and adverse events using risk ratios. The AMSTAR 2 and ROBIS were used for quality assessments, and GRADE was used for evidence certainty assessments.

FINDINGS

We included five systematic reviews, totalling 47,740 participants. The Quadrivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine (QIV) exhibited enhanced immunogenicity in the context of B-lineage mismatch when compared to the Trivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine (TIV). While the safety profile of QIV was found to be comparable to that of TIV, the QIV showed a higher incidence of solicited local pain among children and adolescents, as well as an increased frequency of local adverse events within the adult population.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that the QIV provides a superior immunogenicity response compared to the TIV in all age groups evaluated, especially when a lineage mismatch occurred. The safety of QIV was considered similar to the TIV, with no serious or systemic solicited or unsolicited adverse events; tough pain at the injection site was greater for QIV. We recommend caution owing to the high risk of bias in the selection process and no protocol registration.

Estimating fine age structure and time trends in human contact patterns from coarse contact data: The Bayesian rate consistency model

Since the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), large-scale social contact surveys are now longitudinally measuring the fundamental changes in human interactions in the face of the pandemic and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here, we present a model-based Bayesian approach that can reconstruct contact patterns at 1-year resolution even when the age of the contacts is reported coarsely by 5 or 10-year age bands. This innovation is rooted in population-level consistency constraints in how contacts between groups must add up, which prompts us to call the approach presented here the Bayesian rate consistency model. The model can also quantify time trends and adjust for reporting fatigue emerging in longitudinal surveys through the use of computationally efficient Hilbert Space Gaussian process priors. We illustrate estimation accuracy on simulated data as well as social contact data from Europe and Africa for which the exact age of contacts is reported, and then apply the model to social contact data with coarse information on the age of contacts that were collected in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic from April to June 2020 across five longitudinal survey waves. We estimate the fine age structure in social contacts during the early stages of the pandemic and demonstrate that social contact intensities rebounded in an age-structured, non-homogeneous manner. The Bayesian rate consistency model provides a model-based, non-parametric, computationally tractable approach for estimating the fine structure and longitudinal trends in social contacts and is applicable to contemporary survey data with coarsely reported age of contacts as long as the exact age of survey participants is reported.

Comparisons in the Health and Economic Assessments of Using Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccines: A Systematic Literature Review

OBJECTIVES

Seasonal influenza vaccines protect against 3 (trivalent influenza vaccine [IIV3]) or 4 (quadrivalent influenza vaccine [IIV4]) viruses. IIV4 costs more than IIV3, and there is a trade-off between incremental cost and protection. This is especially the case in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) with limited budgets; previous reviews have not identified studies of IIV4-IIV3 comparisons in LMICs. We summarized the literature that compared health and economic outcomes of IIV4 and IIV3, focused on LMICs.

METHODS

We systematically searched 5 databases for articles published before October 6, 2021, that modeled health or economic effects of IIV4 versus IIV3. We abstracted data and compared findings among countries and models.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight studies fit our selection criteria; 10 included LMICs. Most studies (N = 31) reported that IIV4 was cost-saving or cost-effective compared with IIV3; we observed no difference in health or economic outcomes between LMICs and other countries. Based on cost differences of influenza vaccines, only one study compared coverage of IIV3 with IIV4 and reported that the maximum IIV4 price that would still yield greater public health impact than IIV3 was 13% to 22% higher than IIV3.

CONCLUSIONS

When vaccination coverage with IIV4 and IIV3 is the same, IIV4 tends to be not only more effective but more cost-effective than IIV3, even with relatively high price differences between vaccine types. Alternatively, where funding is limited as in most LMICs, higher vaccine coverage can be achieved with IIV3 than IIV4, which could result in more favorable health and economic outcomes.

A Comparison of Etiology, Pathogenesis, Vaccinal and Antiviral Drug Development between Influenza and COVID-19

Influenza virus and coronavirus, two kinds of pathogens that exist widely in nature, are common emerging pathogens that cause respiratory tract infections in humans. In December 2019, a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged, causing a severe respiratory infection named COVID-19 in humans, and raising a global pandemic which has persisted in the world for almost three years. Influenza virus, a seasonally circulating respiratory pathogen, has caused four global pandemics in humans since 1918 by the emergence of novel variants. Studies have shown that there are certain similarities in transmission mode and pathogenesis between influenza and COVID-19, and vaccination and antiviral drugs are considered to have positive roles as well as several limitations in the prevention and control of both diseases. Comparative understandings would be helpful to the prevention and control of these diseases. Here, we review the study progress in the etiology, pathogenesis, vaccine and antiviral drug development for the two diseases.

Incorporating human dynamic populations in models of infectious disease transmission: a systematic review

Background

An increasing number of infectious disease models consider demographic change in the host population, but the demographic methods and assumptions vary considerably. We carry out a systematic review of the methods and assumptions used to incorporate dynamic populations in infectious disease models.

Methods

We systematically searched PubMed and Web of Science for articles on infectious disease transmission in dynamic host populations. We screened the articles and extracted data in accordance with the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA).

Results

We identified 46 articles containing 53 infectious disease models with dynamic populations. Population dynamics were modelled explicitly in 71% of the disease transmission models using cohort-component-based models (CCBMs) or individual-based models (IBMs), while 29% used population prospects as an external input. Fertility and mortality were in most cases age- or age-sex-specific, but several models used crude fertility rates (40%). Households were incorporated in 15% of the models, which were IBMs except for one model using external population prospects. Finally, 17% of the infectious disease models included demographic sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

We find that most studies model fertility, mortality and migration explicitly. Moreover, population-level modelling was more common than IBMs. Demographic characteristics beyond age and sex are cumbersome to implement in population-level models and were for that reason only incorporated in IBMs. Several IBMs included households and networks, but the granularity of the underlying demographic processes was often similar to that of CCBMs. We describe the implications of the most common assumptions and discuss possible extensions.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination of Older Adults with an MF59-Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Compared to Other Available Quadrivalent Vaccines in Germany

Enhanced quadrivalent influenza vaccines that include an adjuvant (aQIV) or a high dose of antigen (QIV-HD), which stimulate a stronger immune response in older adults than the standard vaccine (QIVe), are now approved. The objective of this research is to compare available vaccines and determine the cost-effectiveness of immunizing persons aged 65 years and above with aQIV compared to QIVe and QIV-HD in Germany. A compartmental transmission model calibrated to outpatient visits for influenza in Germany was used to predict the number of medically attended infections using the three vaccines. The rates of hospitalizations, deaths, and other economic consequences were estimated with a decision tree using German data where available. Based on meta-analysis, the rVE of −2.5% to 8.9% for aQIV versus QIV-HD, the vaccines are similar clinically, but aQIV is cost saving compared to QIV-HD (unit cost of EUR 40.55). All results were most sensitive to changes in vaccine effectiveness. aQIV may be cost-effective compared to QIVe depending on the willingness to pay for additional benefits in Germany. As aQIV and QIV-HD are similar in terms of effectiveness, aQIV is cost saving compared to QIV-HD at current unit prices.

Safety and immunogenicity of a quadrivalent, inactivated, split-virion influenza vaccine (IIV4-W) in healthy people aged 3-60 years: a phase III randomized clinical noninferiority trial

Background

A quadrivalent split influenza vaccine IIV4-W against both influenza A and B viruses is urgently needed.

Methods

To evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of IIV4-W in people aged 3–60 years, 2400 participants recruited in a double-blind phase III trial and were randomly assigned to the IIV4-W, TIV1 and TIV2 groups. The immunogenicity indicators were measured at 28 days postvaccination and for 180 days for safety follow-up.

Results

Adverse events (AEs) occurred in 162 (20.28%), 116 (14.55%) and 123 (15.41%) participants in the IIV4-W, TIV1 and TIV2 groups, respectively. All these AEs were mild and self-limiting, and no serious AEs related to the vaccines were observed. IIV4-W elicited a non-inferior immune response for matched strains (the lower limit of 95% CI for GMT ratio >0.67, for SCR and SPR difference >-10%) and superior immune response for the additional B strains (the lower limit of 95% CI for GMT ratio >1.5, for SCR difference >10%) versus TIVs. The lower limit of the 95% confidence interval of the GMT increase fold, the seroconversion rate and the seroprotection rate exceeded 2.5, 40% and 70% for the four strains in IIV4-W respectively.

Conclusions

IIV4-W was noninferior to the TIV-matched strains and was superior to the additional B strain. IIV4-W was safe in the participants and elicited high antibody titers.

Cost-utility analysis of increasing uptake of universal seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) in children aged 6 months and older in Germany

Seasonal influenza causes many cases and related deaths in Europe annually, despite ongoing vaccination programs for older adults and people at high-risk of complications. Children have the highest risk of infection and play a key role in disease transmission. Our cost-utility analysis, based on a dynamic transmission model, estimated the impact of increasing the current vaccination coverage with inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany to all (healthy and high-risk) children under 5 years of age (40% uptake), or under 18 years (40% uptake), or only high-risk children under 18 years (90% uptake). Eight influenza complications were modeled, hospitalization and death rates were based on age and risk status. All three vaccination strategies provided more health benefits than the existing vaccination situation, reducing influenza cases, complications, hospitalizations and deaths across the entire population. The strategy targeting all children under 5 years was highly cost-effective (€6/quality-adjusted life-year gained, payer perspective). The other strategies were cost saving from the payer and societal perspectives. The vaccination strategy targeting all children under 18 years was estimated to provide the most health benefits (preventing on average 1.66 million cases, 179,000 complications, 14,000 hospitalizations and 3,600 deaths due to influenza annually) and the most cost savings (annually €20.5 million and €731.3 million from payer and societal perspectives, respectively). Our analysis provides policy decision-makers with evidence supporting strategies to expand childhood influenza vaccination, to directly protect children, and indirectly all other unvaccinated age groups, in order to reduce the humanistic and economic burden on healthcare systems and society.

Development of Lentiviral Vectors Pseudotyped With Influenza B Hemagglutinins: Application in Vaccine Immunogenicity, mAb Potency, and Sero-Surveillance Studies

Influenza B viruses (IBV) cause respiratory disease epidemics in humans and are therefore components of seasonal influenza vaccines. Serological methods are employed to evaluate vaccine immunogenicity prior to licensure. However, classical methods to assess influenza vaccine immunogenicity such as the hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI) and the serial radial hemolysis assay (SRH), have been proven to have many limitations. As such, there is a need to develop innovative methods that can improve on these traditional assays and provide advantages such as ease of production and access, safety, reproducibility, and specificity. It has been previously demonstrated that the use of replication-defective viruses, such as lentiviral vectors pseudotyped with influenza A hemagglutinins in microneutralization assays (pMN) is a safe and sensitive alternative to study antibody responses elicited by natural influenza infection or vaccination. Consequently, we have produced Influenza B hemagglutinin-pseudotypes (IBV PV) using plasmid-directed transfection. To activate influenza B hemagglutinin, we have explored the use of proteases in increasing PV titers via their co-transfection during pseudotype virus production. When tested for their ability to transduce target cells, the influenza B pseudotypes produced exhibit tropism for different cell lines. The pseudotypes were evaluated as alternatives to live virus in microneutralization assays using reference sera standards, mouse and human sera collected during vaccine immunogenicity studies, surveillance sera from seals, and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against IBV. The influenza B pseudotype pMN was found to effectively detect neutralizing and cross-reactive responses in all assays and shows promise as an effective and versatile tool in influenza research.

Cost-effectiveness of the cell-based quadrivalent versus the standard egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine in Germany

BACKGROUND

Standard influenza vaccines are produced using egg-based manufacturing methods. Through the process, the resulting egg-adapted viral strains may differ from the selected vaccine strain. Cell-derived influenza vaccine manufacturing prevents egg-adaptation of the antigen which can improve vaccine effectiveness. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent cell-derived influenza vaccine (QIVc) versus an egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVe) in preventing seasonal influenza from German societal and payer perspectives.

METHODS

Adapted version of the individual-based dynamic 4Flu transmission model was combined with a decision-tree to calculate the impact of QIVc versus QIVe on influenza over 20 seasons in Germany. Egg-adaptation, resulting in lower effectiveness of QIVe versus QIVc towards the H3N2 influenza strain, is sourced from a US retrospective study and assumed in 100% (base case) or 55% (conservative scenario) of years. Influenza-related probabilities of outpatient visits, hospitalizations, productivity loss, and mortality, with associated (dis)utilities/costs, were extracted from literature. Costs and outcomes were discounted 3.0%/year.

RESULTS

Replacing QIVe with QIVc in subjects aged ≥ 9 years can annually prevent 167,265 symptomatic cases, 51,114 outpatient visits, 2,091 hospitalizations, and 103 deaths in Germany. The annual number of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) increased by 1,628 and healthcare costs decreased by €178 M from societal perspective. From payer perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €2,285 per QALY. Scenario analyses confirmed results robustness.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of QIVc compared to QIVe, in the German Immunization Program, could significantly prevent outpatient visits and hospitalizations and would enable substantial savings from a societal perspective.

Assessment of Immunogenicity of Adjuvanted Quadrivalent Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Healthy People and Patients With Common Variable Immune Deficiency

Background: Recent addition to vaccines of adjuvants has been actively used to enhance the immunogenicity. However, the use of adjuvants for the development of quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (QIV) is currently limited. The aim of this study was to examine immunogenicity of adjuvanted QIV in healthy people and patients with primary immune deficiency—common variable immune deficiency (CVID).

Methods: In total before the flu season 2018–2019 in the study were involved 32 healthy volunteers aged 18–52 years and 6 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of CVID aged 18–45 years. To evaluate antibody titers 21 days after vaccination against the influenza A and B strains a hemagglutination inhibition assay (HI) was used.

Results: In healthy volunteers adjuvanted QIV has proved its immunogenicity to strains A/H1N1, A/H3N2, B/Phuket and B/Colorado in seroprotection (90, 97, 86, and 66%, respectively), seroconversion (50, 60, 52, and 45%, respectively), GMR (6.2, 5.7, 4.2, and 3.4, respectively). Statistically significant differences in the level of all criteria were revealed between groups of healthy and CVID patients regardless of the virus strain. Most patients with CVID showed an increase in post-vaccination antibody titer without reaching conditionally protective antibody levels.

Conclusion: Immunization with single dose of adjuvanted QIV with decreased amount of hemagglutinin protein to all virus strains due to the use of azoximer bromide forms protective immunity in healthy people, but in patients with CVID the search for new vaccination schemes is the subject of further investigations, as well as the effectiveness of boosterization with adjuvant vaccines.

Assessing direct and indirect effects of pediatric influenza vaccination in Germany by individual-based simulations

Children have a high burden of influenza and play a central role in spreading influenza. Routinely vaccinating children against influenza may, thus, not only reduce their disease burden, but also that of the general population, including the elderly who frequently suffer severe complications. Using the published individual-based tool 4Flu, we simulated how pediatric vaccination would change infection incidence in Germany. Transmission of four influenza strains was simulated in 100,000 individuals with German demography and contact structure. After initialization with the recorded trivalent influenza vaccination coverage for 20 years (1997-2016), all vaccinations were switched to quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV). Scenarios where vaccination coverage of children (0.5-17-year-old) was increased from the current value (4.3%) to a maximum of 10-60% were compared to baseline with unchanged coverage, averaging results of 1,000 pairs of simulations over a 20-year evaluation period (2017-2036). Pediatric vaccination coverage of 10-60% annually prevented 218-1,732 (6.3-50.5%) infections in children, 204-1,961 (2.9-28.2%) in young adults and 95-868 (3.1-28.9%) in the elderly in a population of 100,000 inhabitants; overall, 34.1% of infections in the total population (3.7 million infections per year in Germany) can be prevented if 60% of all children are vaccinated annually. 4.4-4.6 vaccinations were needed to prevent one infection among children; 1.7-1.8 were needed to prevent one in the population. Enhanced pediatric vaccination prevents many infections in children and even more in young adults and the elderly.

Modelling the optimal target age group for seasonal influenza vaccination in Japan

BACKGROUND

In Japan, the current influenza vaccination programme is targeting older individuals. On the other hand, epidemics of influenza are likely to be mainly driven by children. In this study, we consider the most cost-effective target age group for a seasonal influenza vaccination programme in Japan.

METHODS

We constructed a deterministic compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with data from the 2012/13 to 2014/15 influenza seasons in Japan. Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used for parameter estimation. Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted from public health care payer's perspective.

RESULTS

A scenario targeting children under 15 was expected to reduce the number of cases 6,382,345 compared to the current strategy. A scenario targeting elderly population (age over 49 years) was expected to reduce the number of cases 693,206. The children targeted scenario demonstrated negative ICER (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio) value. On the other hand, elderly targeted scenario demonstrated higher ICER value than the willingness to pay (50,000 USD/QALY).

CONCLUSIONS

A vaccination programme which targets children under 15 is predicted to have much larger epidemiological impact than those targeting elderly.

[Seasonal flu vaccination for older people: Evaluation of the quadrivalent vaccine. Positioning report]

Influenza is a significant health problem, particularly in those persons susceptible to having associated complications, older people, children less than 2 years, patients with chronic diseases, immunocompromised patients, and pregnant women. But influenza also has a large impact on the health system, with an increase in the healthcare demand and a spectacular increase in outpatient visits, overloading the emergency and hospital services. During epidemic outbreaks, the hospital admission rates of people over 65 years are at a maximum, and the mortality notified for the 2017/2018 influenza season was 960 deaths. The seasonal anti-influenza vaccine is the method with a better cost-effective ratio of primary prevention of influenza, reducing associated respiratory diseases, the number of hospital admissions, and deaths in high risk individuals, as well as work absenteeism in adults. In the last few years, influenza B has received little attention in the scientific literature, although in the periods between epidemics influenza B can be one of the main causes of seasonal epidemics, causing considerable morbidity and mortality and an increase in costs. The quadrivalent vaccine has a second-line immunological protection against influenza B, and according to a critical review of the scientific literature, it provides wider protection without affecting immunogenicity of the other three vaccine strains common to the trivalent and tetravalent vaccine. The quadrivalent vaccine is cost-effective in reducing the number of influenza cases, and is always a worthwhile intervention, with a significant cost saving for the health system and for society, by reducing the hospital admission rates and mortality associated with the complications of influenza. Supplement information: This article is part of a supplement entitled 'Seasonal flu vaccination for older people: Evaluation of the quadrivalent vaccine' which is sponsored by Sanofi-Aventis, S.A.

Dynamics of Zika virus outbreaks: an overview of mathematical modeling approaches

BACKGROUND

The Zika virus was first discovered in 1947. It was neglected until a major outbreak occurred on Yap Island, Micronesia, in 2007. Teratogenic effects resulting in microcephaly in newborn infants is the greatest public health threat. In 2016, the Zika virus epidemic was declared as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). Consequently, mathematical models were constructed to explicitly elucidate related transmission dynamics.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

In this review article, two steps of journal article searching were performed. First, we attempted to identify mathematical models previously applied to the study of vector-borne diseases using the search terms "dynamics," "mathematical model," "modeling," and "vector-borne" together with the names of vector-borne diseases including chikungunya, dengue, malaria, West Nile, and Zika. Then the identified types of model were further investigated. Second, we narrowed down our survey to focus on only Zika virus research. The terms we searched for were "compartmental," "spatial," "metapopulation," "network," "individual-based," "agent-based" AND "Zika." All relevant studies were included regardless of the year of publication. We have collected research articles that were published before August 2017 based on our search criteria. In this publication survey, we explored the Google Scholar and PubMed databases.

RESULTS

We found five basic model architectures previously applied to vector-borne virus studies, particularly in Zika virus simulations. These include compartmental, spatial, metapopulation, network, and individual-based models. We found that Zika models carried out for early epidemics were mostly fit into compartmental structures and were less complicated compared to the more recent ones. Simple models are still commonly used for the timely assessment of epidemics. Nevertheless, due to the availability of large-scale real-world data and computational power, recently there has been growing interest in more complex modeling frameworks.

DISCUSSION

Mathematical models are employed to explore and predict how an infectious disease spreads in the real world, evaluate the disease importation risk, and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. As the trends in modeling of infectious diseases have been shifting towards data-driven approaches, simple and complex models should be exploited differently. Simple models can be produced in a timely fashion to provide an estimation of the possible impacts. In contrast, complex models integrating real-world data require more time to develop but are far more realistic. The preparation of complicated modeling frameworks prior to the outbreaks is recommended, including the case of future Zika epidemic preparation.

Simulation studies to assess the long-term effects of Japan's change from trivalent to quadrivalent influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Since 2013/2014, the WHO has been recommending quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) to prevent seasonal influenza. In 2015, Japan replaced trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) by QIV. We used computer simulations to calculate how this impacted the epidemiology and to assess its cost-effectiveness.

METHODS

We simulated the seasonal transmission of the four influenza strains A(H1N1), A(H3N2), B/Yamagata and B/Victoria with the individual-based simulation tool 4Flu, using official demographic data and Japanese contact patterns. The model considered maternal protection, immunity boosting, new drift variants and different immunity durations for naturally acquired and vaccination-derived immunity. Starting with the 2015/16 season, simulations were evaluated for 20 years, using either TIV or QIV with the reported vaccination coverage. Costs and years of life saved (YOLSs) were calculated and discounted at 2%, using 2015 as base year.

RESULTS

QIV annually prevents on average 548 influenza cases (4.7% of cases which occur when using TIV; 11.9% of influenza B), 1.62 hospitalizations and 0.078 deaths per 100,000 individuals. In Japan's population of 125.35 million, annually 915.06 YOLYs are gained by QIV and 107.52 million USD are saved (societal perspective) [corrected]. From payer perspective, the ICER is 3698 USD/YOLS.

CONCLUSIONS

QIV is cost-effective (payer perspective) or even cost-saving (societal perspective) in Japan.

Quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (VaxigripTetra™)

INTRODUCTION

VaxigripTetra™ (IIV4; Sanofi Pasteur) is a quadrivalent split-virion influenza vaccine approved in Europe in 2016 for individuals ≥ 3 years of age. IIV4 builds on the well-established record of the trivalent split-virion influenza vaccine (Vaxigrip®). Areas covered: This literature review summarizes the rationale for developing quadrivalent influenza vaccines and discusses the phase III clinical trial results supporting the immunogenicity, safety, and tolerability of IIV4. Expert commentary: IIV4 is immunogenic and well tolerated. Adding a second B strain to the trivalent split-virion influenza vaccine provides a superior immune response for the additional strain but does not reduce the immune response for the three other strains or negatively affect the safety profile. By offering broader protection against co-circulating influenza B lineages, IIV4 has the potential to further reduce influenza-related morbidity and mortality beyond that achieved with trivalent vaccines.

A systematic review of the health economic consequences of quadrivalent influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs) contain antigens derived from an additional influenza type B virus as compared with currently used trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). This should overcome a potential reduced vaccine protection due to mismatches between TIV and circulating B viruses. In this study, we systematically reviewed the available literature on health economic evaluations of switching from TIV to QIV. Areas covered: The databases of Medline and Embase were searched systematically to identify health economic evaluations of QIV versus TIV published before September 2016.A total of sixteen studies were included, thirteen cost-effectiveness analyses and three cost-comparisons. Expert commentary: Published evidence on the cost-effectiveness of QIV suggests that switching from TIV to QIV would be a valuable intervention from both the public health and economic viewpoint. However, more research seems mandatory. Our main recommendations for future research include: 1) more extensive use of dynamic models in order to estimate the full impact of QIV on influenza transmission including indirect effects, 2) improved availability of data on disease outcomes and costs related to influenza type B viruses, and 3) more research on immunogenicity of natural influenza infection and vaccination, with emphasis on cross-reactivity between different influenza B viruses and duration of protection.

A review of the value of quadrivalent influenza vaccines and their potential contribution to influenza control

The contribution of influenza B to the seasonal influenza burden varies from year-to-year. Although 2 antigenically distinct influenza B virus lineages have co-circulated since 2001, trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs) contain antigens from only one influenza B virus. B-mismatch or co-circulation of both B lineages results in increased morbidity and mortality attributable to the B lineage absent from the vaccine. Quadrivalent vaccines (QIVs) contain both influenza B lineages. We reviewed currently licensed QIVs and their value by focusing on the preventable disease burden. Modeling studies support that QIVs are expected to prevent more influenza cases, hospitalisations and deaths than TIVs, although estimates of the case numbers prevented vary according to local specificities. The value of QIVs is demonstrated by their capacity to broaden the immune response and reduce the likelihood of a B-mismatched season. Some health authorities have preferentially recommended QIVs over TIVs in their influenza prevention programmes.

Direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination

BACKGROUND

After vaccination, vaccinees acquire some protection against infection and/or disease. Vaccination, therefore, reduces the number of infections in the population. Due to this herd protection, not everybody needs to be vaccinated to prevent infections from spreading.

METHODS

We quantify direct and indirect effects of influenza vaccination examining the standard Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) model as well as simulation results of a sophisticated simulation tool which allows for seasonal transmission of four influenza strains in a population with realistic demography and age-dependent contact patterns.

RESULTS

As shown analytically for the simple SIR and SIRS transmission models, indirect vaccination effects are bigger than direct ones if the effective reproduction number of disease transmission is close to the critical value of 1. Simulation results for 20-60% vaccination with live influenza vaccine of 2-17 year old children in Germany, averaged over 10 years (2017-26), confirm this result: four to seven times as many influenza cases are prevented among non-vaccinated individuals as among vaccinees. For complications like death due to influenza which occur much more frequently in the unvaccinated elderly than in the vaccination target group of children, indirect benefits can surpass direct ones by a factor of 20 or even more than 30.

CONCLUSIONS

The true effect of vaccination can be much bigger than what would be expected by only looking at vaccination coverage and vaccine efficacy.

Is the impact of childhood influenza vaccination less than expected: a transmission modelling study

BACKGROUND

To reduce the burden of severe influenza, most industrialized countries target specific risk-groups with influenza vaccines, e.g. the elderly or individuals with comorbidities. Since children are the main spreaders, some countries have recently implemented childhood vaccination programs to reduce overall virus transmission and thereby influenza disease in the whole population. The introduction of childhood vaccination programs was often supported by modelling studies that predicted substantial incidence reductions. We developed a mathematical transmission model to examine the potential impact of childhood influenza vaccination in Germany, while also challenging established modelling assumptions.

METHODS

We developed an age-stratified SEIR-type transmission model to reproduce the epidemic influenza seasons between 2003/04 and 2013/14. The model was built upon German population counts, contact patterns, and vaccination history and was fitted to seasonal data on influenza-attributable medically attended acute respiratory infections (I-MAARI) and strain distribution using Bayesian methods. As novelties we (i) implemented a stratified model structure enabling seasonal variability and (ii) deviated from the commonly assumed mass-action-principle by employing a phenomenological transmission rate.

RESULTS

According to the model, by vaccinating primarily the elderly over ten seasons 4 million (95% prediction interval: 3.84 - 4.19) I-MAARI were prevented which corresponds to an 8.6% (8.3% - 8.9%) reduction compared to a no-vaccination scenario and a number-needed-to-vaccinate (NNV) to prevent one I-MAARI of 37.1 (35.5 - 38.7). Additional vaccination of 2-10 year-old children at 40% coverage would have led to an overall I-MAARI reduction of 17.8% (17.1 - 18.7%) mostly due to indirect effects with a NNV of 20.7 (19.6 - 21.6). When employing the traditional mass-action-principle, the model predicted a more than 3-fold higher I-MAARI reduction (55.6%) due to childhood vaccination.

CONCLUSION

In Germany, the introduction of routine childhood influenza vaccination could considerably reduce I-MAARI among all age-groups and improve the NNV. However, the predicted impact is much lower compared to previous studies, which is primarily caused by our phenomenological approach to modelling influenza virus transmission.

Cost-Utility of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in Germany, Using an Individual-Based Dynamic Transmission Model

BACKGROUND

Seasonal influenza infection is primarily caused by circulation of two influenza A strain subtypes and strains from two B lineages that vary each year. Trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) contains only one of the two B-lineage strains, resulting in mismatches between vaccine strains and the predominant circulating B lineage. Quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes both B-lineage strains. The objective was to estimate the cost-utility of introducing QIV to replace TIV in Germany.

METHODS

An individual-based dynamic transmission model (4Flu) using German data was used to provide realistic estimates of the impact of TIV and QIV on age-specific influenza infections. Cases were linked to health and economic outcomes to calculate the cost-utility of QIV versus TIV, from both a societal and payer perspective. Costs and effects were discounted at 3.0 and 1.5 % respectively, with 2014 as the base year. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Using QIV instead of TIV resulted in additional quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and cost savings from the societal perspective (i.e. it represents the dominant strategy) and an incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) of €14,461 per QALY from a healthcare payer perspective. In all univariate analyses, QIV remained cost-effective (ICUR <€50,000). In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, QIV was cost-effective in >98 and >99 % of the simulations from the societal and payer perspective, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This analysis suggests that QIV in Germany would provide additional health gains while being cost-saving to society or costing €14,461 per QALY gained from the healthcare payer perspective, compared with TIV.

Influence of social contact patterns and demographic factors on influenza simulation results

Background

The demographic composition and the frequency and nature of social contacts may affect the spread of influenza virus in a population, resulting in distinct age-dependent immunity patterns. As demography and social contact rates differ strongly between European countries, this may impact infection incidence and vaccine effectiveness and thus limit the extent to which conclusions derived from observations in one country can be generalized to others. In the current study, we aimed to decipher the impact of social contact patterns and demographic factors on simulation results and, thus, to determine to what extent vaccination results can be generalized.

Methods

We simulated the transmission of four influenza strains (A(H1N1), A(H3N2), B/Victoria, B/Yamagata) in Belgium, Finland, Germany, GB, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Poland, using the simulation tool 4Flu. Individuals were connected in a dynamically evolving age-dependent contact network based on the POLYMOD study.

Results

When averaged over 20 years, simulation results without vaccination ranged from annually 20,984 (Germany) to 31,322 infections (Italy) per 100,000 individuals. QIV annually prevented 1758 (Poland) to 7720 infections (Germany) per 100,000. Variability of prevented cases remained high when the country-specific vaccination was replaced by unified coverage, but was reduced considerably if the same demography was used for all countries, or even more so when the same contact matrix was used.

Conclusions

Contact matrix and demography strongly influence the age-dependent incidence of influenza and the success of vaccination. Projecting simulation results from one country to another can, therefore, lead to erroneous results.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-016-1981-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Cost-effectiveness of seasonal quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccination in the United States: A dynamic transmission modeling approach

Trivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV3s) protect against 2 A strains and one B lineage; quadrivalent versions (IIV4s) protect against an additional B lineage. The objective was to assess projected health and economic outcomes associated with IIV4 versus IIV3 for preventing seasonal influenza in the US. A cost-effectiveness model was developed to interact with a dynamic transmission model. The transmission model tracked vaccination, influenza cases, infection-spreading interactions, and recovery over 10 y (2012–2022). The cost-effectiveness model estimated influenza-related complications, direct and indirect costs (2013–2014 US$), health outcomes, and cost-effectiveness. Inputs were taken from published/public sources or estimated using regression or calibration. Outcomes were discounted at 3% per year. Scenario analyses tested the reliability of the results. Seasonal vaccination with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to reduce annual influenza cases by 1,973,849 (discounted; 2,325,644 undiscounted), resulting in 12–13% fewer cases and influenza-related complications and deaths. These reductions are predicted to translate into 18,485 more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) accrued annually for IIV4 versus IIV3. Increased vaccine-related costs ($599 million; 5.7%) are predicted to be more than offset by reduced influenza treatment costs ($699 million; 12.2%), resulting in direct medical cost saving annually ($100 million; 0.6%). Including indirect costs, savings with IIV4 are predicted to be $7.1 billion (5.6%). Scenario analyses predict IIV4 to be cost-saving in all scenarios tested apart from low infectivity, where IIV4 is predicted to be cost-effective. In summary, seasonal influenza vaccination in the US with IIV4 versus IIV3 is predicted to improve health outcomes and reduce costs.

The Clinical Impact and Cost Effectiveness of Quadrivalent Versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccination in Finland

BACKGROUND

Trivalent influenza vaccines encompass one influenza B lineage; however, predictions have been unreliable on which of two antigenically distinct circulating lineages will dominate. Quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccines contain strains from both lineages. This analysis assesses the cost effectiveness of switching from trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination (TIV) in Finland to quadrivalent vaccination, using inactivated (QIV) or live-attenuated (Q-LAIV) vaccines.

METHODS

A transmission model simulated the dynamics of influenza infection while accounting for indirect (herd) protection. Prior distributions for key transmission parameters were repeatedly sampled and simulations that fitted the available information on influenza in Finland were recorded. The resulting posterior parameter distributions were used in a probabilistic sensitivity analysis in which economic parameters were sampled, simultaneously encompassing uncertainty in the transmission and economic parameters. The cost effectiveness of a range of trivalent and quadrivalent vaccine policies over a 20-year time horizon was assessed from both a societal and payer perspective in 2014 Euros.

RESULTS

The simulated temporal incidence pattern of symptomatic infections corresponded well with case surveillance data. A switch from the current TIV to Q-LAIV in children (2 to <18 years) and to QIV in other ages was estimated to annually avert approximately 76,100 symptomatic infections (95 % range 36,700-146,700), 11,500 primary care consultations (6100-20,000), 540 hospitalisations (240-1180), and 72 deaths (32-160), and was cost-saving relative to TIV (€374 million averted [€161-€752], in 2014 Euros, discounted at 3 %). This scenario had the highest probability of being the most cost-effective scenario considered.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis demonstrates that quadrivalent vaccination is expected to be highly cost effective, reducing the burden of influenza-related disease.

Immunogenicity and safety of inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine in adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

BACKGROUND

A quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes two A strains (A/H1N1, A/H3N2) and two B lineages (B/Victoria, B/Yamagata). The presence of both B lineages eliminate potential B lineage mismatch of trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) with the circulating strain.

METHODS

Electronic database searches of Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CCRCT), Scopus and Web of Science were conducted for articles published until June 30, 2015 inclusive. Articles were limited to randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in adults using inactivated intramuscular vaccine and published in English language only. Summary estimates of immunogenicity (by seroprotection and seroconversion rates) and adverse events outcomes were compared between QIV and TIV, using a risk ratio (RR). Studies were pooled using inverse variance weights with a random effect model and the I(2) statistic was used to estimate heterogeneity.

RESULTS

A total of five RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. For immunogenicity outcomes, QIV had similar efficacy for the three common strains; A/H1N1, A/H3N2 and the B lineage included in the TIV. QIV also showed superior efficacy for the B lineage not included in the TIV; pooled seroprotection RR of 1.14 (95%CI: 1.03-1.25, p=0.008) and seroconversion RR of 1.78 (95%CI: 1.24-2.55, p=0.002) for B/Victoria, and pooled seroprotection RR of 1.12 (95%CI: 1.02-1.22, p=0.01) and seroconversion RR of 2.11 (95%CI: 1.51-2.95, p<0.001) for B/Yamagata, respectively. No significant differences were found between QIV and TIV for aggregated local and systemic adverse events within 7days post-vaccination. There were no vaccine-related serious adverse events reported for either QIV or TIV. Compared to TIV, injection-site pain was more common for QIV, with a pooled RR of 1.18 (95%CI: 1.03-1.35, p=0.02).

CONCLUSION

In adults, inactivated QIV was as immunogenic as seasonal TIV, with equivalent efficacy against the shared three strains included in TIV, and a superior immunogenicity against the non-TIV B lineage.

Immunogenicity and safety of a cell culture-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine in adults: A Phase III, double-blind, multicenter, randomized, non-inferiority study

Quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVs), which include both B lineage strains, are expected to provide broader protection than trivalent influenza vaccines (TIVs). The non-inferiority, immunogenicity, and safety of a cell culture-based investigational QIVc and 2 TIVs (TIV1c, TIV2c), in adults (≥18 y), were evaluated in this Phase III, double-blind, multicenter study. A total of 2680 age-stratified subjects were randomized (2:1:1) to receive 1 dose of QIVc (n = 1335), TIV1c (n = 676), or TIV2c (n = 669). TIV1c (B/Yamagata) and TIV2c (B/Victoria) differed only in B strain lineage. The primary objective was to demonstrate non-inferiority of the hemagglutinin-inhibition antibody responses of QIVc against TIVc, 22 d post-vaccination. Secondary objectives included the evaluation of immunogenicity of QIVc and TIVc in younger (≥18 - <65 y) and older (≥65 y) adults. Hemagglutinin inhibition assays were performed at days 1 and 22. Solicited local and systemic adverse events (AEs) were monitored for 7 d post-vaccination, and unsolicited AEs and serious AEs until day 181. QIVc met the non-inferiority criteria for all 4 vaccine strains and demonstrated superiority for both influenza B strains over the unmatched B strain included in the TIV1c and TIV2c, when geometric mean titers and seroconversion rates with TIVc were compared at day 22. Between 48%-52% of subjects experienced ≥1 solicited AE, the most common being injection-site pain and headache. Serious AEs were reported by ≤1% of subjects, none were vaccine-related. The results indicate that QIVc is immunogenic and well tolerated in both younger and older adults. The immunogenicity and safety profiles of QIVc and TIVc were comparable at all ages evaluated.

Public health and economic impact of seasonal influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines compared to trivalent influenza vaccines in Europe

Influenza B strains represent on average 23% of all circulating strains in Europe and when there is a vaccine mismatch on B strains, additional influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths as well as substantial additional costs are observed. The objective was to estimate the public health and economic impact of seasonal influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) compared to trivalent influenza vaccines (TIV) in Europe (EU).

Based on data from 5 EU countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) during 10 influenza seasons from 2002 to 2013, epidemiological and associated economic outcomes were estimated for each season for the actual scenario where the TIV was used, and for a hypothetical scenario where QIV could have been used instead.

By using QIV, this study estimated that for the 5 EU countries, an additional 1.03 million (327.9/100,000 inhabitants) influenza cases, 453,000 (143.9/100,000) general practitioners consultations, 672,000 (213.1/100,000) workdays lost, 24,000 (7.7/100,000) hospitalizations and 10,000 (3.1/100,000) deaths could have been avoided compared to the use of TIV over the 10-seasons-period. This study estimates that QIV can be of economic value since from a societal perspective 15 million Euros would have been saved on general practitioners consultations (14 million Euros from third-party payer perspective), 77 million on hospitalizations (74 million Euros from third-party payer perspective) and 150 million Euros on workdays lost, across the 5 EU countries.

In conclusion, the present study estimates that, compared to TIV, QIV may result in a substantial decrease in epidemiological burden and in influenza-related costs.

Assessment of potential public health impact of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine in Thailand

BACKGROUND

Each year, an influenza B strain representing only one influenza B lineage is included in the trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3); a mismatch between the selected lineage and circulating viruses can result in suboptimal vaccine effectiveness. We modeled the added potential public health impact of a quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4) that includes strains from both influenza B lineages compared to IIV3 on influenza-associated morbidity and mortality in Thailand.

METHODS

Using data on the incidence of influenza-associated hospitalizations and deaths, vaccine effectiveness, and vaccine coverage from the 2007-2012 influenza seasons in Thailand, we estimated rates of influenza-associated outcomes that might be averted using IIV4 instead of IIV3. We then applied these rates to national population estimates to calculate averted illnesses, hospitalizations, and deaths for each season. We assumed that the influenza B lineage included in IIV3 would provide a relative vaccine effectiveness of 75% against the other B lineage.

RESULTS

Compared to use of IIV3, use of IIV4 might have led to an additional reduction ranging from 0·4 to 14·3 influenza-associated illnesses per 100 000 population/year, <0·1 to 0·5 hospitalizations per 100 000/year, and <0·1 to 0·4 deaths per 1000/year. Based on extrapolation to national population estimates, replacement of IIV3 with IIV4 might have averted an additional 267-9784 influenza-associated illnesses, 9-320 hospitalizations, and 0-3 deaths.

CONCLUSION

Compared to use of IIV3, IIV4 has the potential to further reduce the burden of influenza-associated morbidity and mortality in Thailand.

Trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccination effectiveness in Australia and South Africa: results from a modelling study

BACKGROUND

A modelling study was conducted to determine the effectiveness of trivalent (TIV) and quadrivalent (QIV) vaccination in South Africa and Australia.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to determine the potential benefits of alternative vaccination strategies which may depend on community-specific demographic and health characteristics.

METHODS

Two influenza A and two influenza B strains were simulated using individual-based simulation models representing specific communities in South Africa and Australia over 11 years. Scenarios using TIV or QIV, with alternative prioritisation strategies and vaccine coverage levels, were evaluated using a country-specific health outcomes process.

RESULTS

In South Africa, approximately 18% fewer deaths and hospitalisations would be expected to result from the use of QIV compared to TIV over the 11 modelled years (P = 0·031). In Australia, only 2% (P = 0·30) fewer deaths and hospitalisations would result. Vaccinating 2%, 5%, 15% or 20% of the population with TIV using a strategy of prioritising vulnerable age groups, including HIV-positive individuals, resulted in reductions in hospitalisations and mortality of at least 7%, 18%, 57% and 66%, respectively, in both communities.

CONCLUSIONS

The degree to which QIV can reduce health burden compared to TIV is strongly dependent on the number of years in which the influenza B lineage in the TIV matches the circulating B lineages. Assuming a moderate level of B cross-strain protection, TIV may be as effective as QIV. The choice of vaccination prioritisation has a greater impact than the QIV/TIV choice, with strategies targeting those most responsible for transmission being most effective.

Available influenza vaccines: immunization strategies, history and new tools for fighting the disease

The main public health strategy for containing influenza-related disease is annual vaccination, which is recommended for the elderly and others belonging to risk-factor categories, who present the highest morbidity and mortality, as reported by the World Health Organization (WHO) Recommendations. The availability of different influenza vaccine formulations makes the choice of the best immunization strategy a challenge for stakeholders and public health experts. Heterogeneity in at-risk categories included in national influenza vaccine recommendations still exists, in particular among European countries. Broader consensus is expected, which should positively impact on influenza vaccination coverage. The availability of quadrivalent vaccines, containing both influenza B lineages, offers the potential to improve protection by overcoming the drawbacks of wrongly predicting which B lineage will predominate in a given year.

Quadrivalent influenza vaccine: a new opportunity to reduce the influenza burden

Influenza illness is caused by influenza A and influenza B strains. Although influenza A viruses are perceived to carry greater risk because they account for the majority of influenza cases in most seasons and have been responsible for influenza pandemics, influenza B viruses also impose a substantial public health burden, particularly among children and at-risk subjects. Furthermore, since the 2001-2002 influenza season, both influenza B lineages, B/Victoria-like viruses and B/Yamagata-like viruses have co-circulated in Europe. The conventional trivalent influenza vaccines have shown a limited ability to induce effective protection when major or minor mismatches between the influenza B vaccine component and circulating strains occur. For this reason, the inclusion of a second B strain in influenza vaccines may help to overcome the well-known difficulties of predicting the circulating B lineage and choosing the influenza B vaccine component. Two quadrivalent influenza vaccines, a live-attenuated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (Q/LAIV) and a split inactivated quadrivalent influenza vaccine (I/QIV), were first licensed in the US in 2012. Since their introduction, models simulating the inclusion of QIV in influenza immunization programs have demonstrated the substantial health benefits, in terms of reducing the number of influenza cases, their complications and mortality. In the near future, evaluations from simulation models should be confirmed by effectiveness studies in the field, and more costeffectiveness analyses should be conducted in order to verify the expected benefits.