Child morbidity and mortality associated with alternative policy responses to the economic crisis in Brazil: A nationwide microsimulation study

Strategies for expanding vaccination coverage in children in Brazil: systematic literature review

OBJECTIVES

to identify the strategies found in the literature for increasing vaccination coverage among children in Brazil. It is justified mainly by the current scenario of falling vaccination coverage.

METHODS

systematic literature review. The search was carried out in the Pubmed (MEDLINE), Embase and Scopus databases, following the PRISMA guidelines.

RESULTS

initially, 4,824 results were returned. In the end, 6 studies were included for narrative synthesis using the SWiM methodology. Of these, 50% dealt with studies related to the Bolsa Família Program (PBF). The others explored strategies for approaching parents directly, Rapid Vaccination Monitoring (MRV) and the Community Health Agents Program (PACS). The PBF did not guarantee compliance with the conditionality of keeping vaccinations up to date. The MRV and PACS are effective strategies, especially because they allow active search for absentees.

CONCLUSIONS

we conclude that more publications are needed on strategies to increase vaccination coverage among children in Brazil.

The mitigating effect of social protection on undernourishment during economic downturns: A longitudinal study of 46 low- and middle-income countries over the last two decades

BACKGROUND

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of economic downturns on the Prevalence of Undernourishment (PoU). Our study aimed to evaluate the impact of Social Protection and Labor Programs (SPL) on PoU in 46 LMICs from 2001 to 2019, and to estimate SPL mitigating effects during economic downturns.

METHODS

This cohort study used a multi-country ecological design with two-ways fixed effects multivariable linear regression models, adjusted for relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and contextual variables. Interaction terms between economic downturns and SPL were used to evaluate SPL mitigating effects.

FINDINGS

Our study cohort displayed an average 15.30% PoU and 34.34% SPL coverage in the initial year, contrasting with 8.58% PoU and 43.81% SPL coverage in the final year. A 10% SPL coverage was associated with a 0.51% PoU reduction (95%CI: 0.04-0.99) across all countries and 0.78% reduction within the poorest subgroup. SPL have been able to prevent an estimated 1.01 billion (95% UI: 0.16-1.86) cases of undernourishment over the study period in the 46 LMICs. Economic downturns were associated with a 4.55% PoU increase (95% CI: 1.28-7.81) in all countries, and a 6.06% PoU increase in the poorest subgroup. High SPL coverage during the downturns had significant mitigating effects, reducing an overall 1.17% PoU for every 10% SPL coverage in all countries, and 1.81% PoU in the poorest nations.

INTERPRETATION

Amid the ongoing multiple global crises, expanding the coverage of social protection could effectively mitigate the potential increases in undernourishment during economic downturns, contributing to the achievement of nutrition-related Sustainable Development Goals in LMICs.

The Role of Race in Deaths of Despair in Brazil: Is it a White People Problem?

BACKGROUND

A new paradigm has been discussed regarding the impact of economic cycles on the mortality pattern from specific causes. These causes are called deaths of despair, and they selectively impact specific demographic groups. Also, low- and middle-income countries are most affected due to their economic and social instability. In this sense, the objective of study was to compare the magnitude of disparity in deaths from despair according to sex, age, and race in Brazil.

METHODS

We performed Poisson regression modeling to estimate the magnitude of the association between sex, age group, race, and deaths from despair. Also, we estimated the relationship of time as a proxy of economic crisis phase and deaths of despair.

RESULTS

We found an association between mortality from despair and male sex (PR = 6.15, 95%CI 6.09-6.22); emphasis on the age groups from 40 to 49 years old (PR = 2.45, 95% CI 2.41-2.48) and 50 to 59 years old (PR = 2.39, 95% CI 2.36-2.43); and brown (PR = 1.21, 95% CI 1.20-1.22) and black race (PR = 1.36, 95% CI 1.34-1.37).

CONCLUSIONS

The present study preliminarily presents the effect of the economic crisis and mortality in the population, with demographic differences. Association with race was opposite to that verified in the original study in the USA, which suggests that this variable should be analyzed in the light of structural context.

Access to medicines, the Unified Health System, and intersectional injustices

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence of general and public access to prescription drugs in the Brazilian population aged 15 or older in 2019, and to identify inequities in access, according to intersections of gender, color/race, socioeconomic level, and territory.

METHODS

We analyzed data from the 2019 National Health Survey with respondents aged 15 years or older who had been prescribed a medication in a healthcare service in the two weeks prior to the interview (n = 19,819). The outcome variable was access to medicines, subdivided into general access (public, private and mixed), public access (via the Unified Health System - SUS) for those treated by the SUS, and public access (via the SUS) for those not treated by the SUS. The study's independent variables were used to represent axes of marginalization: gender, color/race, socioeconomic level, and territory. The prevalence of general and public access in the different groups analyzed was calculated and the association of the outcomes with the aforementioned axes was estimated with odds ratios (OR) using logistic regression models.

RESULTS

There was a high prevalence of general access (84.9%), when all sources of access were considered, favoring more privileged segments of the population, such as men, white, and those of high socioeconomic status. When only the medicines prescribed in the SUS were considered, there was a low prevalence (30.4% access) that otherwise benefited marginalized population segments, such as women, black, and people from low socioeconomic backgrounds.

CONCLUSIONS

Access to medicines through the SUS proves to be an instrument for combating intersectional inequities, lending credence to the idea that the SUS is an efficient public policy for promoting social justice.

The rise in mortality due to intentional self-poisoning by medicines in Brazil between 2003 and 2022: relationship with regional and global crises

In recent years, suicide rates in Brazil have increased, but little is known about the temporal behavior and characteristics of suicides due to intentional self-poisoning by medicines. The aim of the present study was to provide an overview of sociodemographic characteristics and place of death related to suicide due to intentional self-poisoning by medicines, to evaluate the trend of mortality rates in Brazil between 2003 and 2022, and its relationship with regional and global crises. Ecological time series study with data from the Mortality Information System of the Brazilian Ministry of Health, related to individuals aged 10 years and over, who committed suicides due to intentional drug overdose, in the period from 2003 to 2022. The analyses were performed in the R environment in RStudio. Between 2003 and 2022, there was a predominance of deaths in women (55.5%), individuals aged 30-49 years (47.2%), of White race/color (53.2%), occurring in health facilities (67.0%), using drugs or unspecified substances (40.4%); a higher concentration in the southern region (22.8%) and a positive trend in mortality rates due to intentional drug overdose, especially from 2016 onwards. A rise of 264% was observed in the comparison of 2022 and 2003. A peculiar sociodemographic profile was observed in the victims of intentional self-poisoning by medicines and a positive temporal trend in mortality rates, especially in a period marked by regional and global crises.

Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis

BACKGROUND

Latin American and Caribbean countries are dealing with the combined challenges of pandemic-induced socicoeconomic stress and increasing public debt, potentially leading to reductions in welfare and health-care services, including primary care. We aimed to evaluate the impact of primary health-care coverage on child mortality in Latin America over the past two decades and to forecast the potential effects of primary health-care mitigation during the current economic crisis.

METHODS

This multicountry study integrated retrospective impact evaluations in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico from 2000 to 2019 with forecasting models covering up to 2030. We estimated the impact of coverage of primary health care on mortality rates in children younger than 5 years (hereafter referred to as under-5 mortality) across different age groups and causes of death, adjusting for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health-care factors, with fixed-effects multivariable negative binomial models in 5647 municipalities with an adequate quality of vital statistics. We also performed several sensitivity and triangulation analyses. We integrated previous longitudinal datasets with validated dynamic microsimulation models and projected trends in under-5 mortality rates under alternative policy response scenarios until 2030.

FINDINGS

High primary health-care coverage was associated with substantial reductions in post-neonatal mortality rates (rate ratio [RR] 0·72, 95% CI 0·71-0·74), toddler (ie, aged between 1 year and <5 years) mortality rates (0·75, 0·73-0·76), and under-5 mortality rates (0·81, 0·80-0·82), preventing 305 890 (95% CI 251 826-360 517) deaths of children younger than 5 years over the period 2000-19. High primary health-care coverage was also associated with lower under-5 mortality rates from nutritional deficiencies (RR 0·55, 95% CI 0·52-0·58), anaemia (0·64, 0·57-0·72), vaccine-preventable and vaccine-sensitive conditions (0·70, 0·68-0·72), and infectious gastroenteritis (0·78, 0·73-0·84). Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation response strategy implemented in the period 2020-30 that increases primary health-care coverage could reduce the under-5 mortality rate by up to 23% (RR 0·77, 95% CI 0·72-0·84) when compared with a fiscal austerity response, and this strategy would avoid 142 285 (95% CI 120 217-164 378) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico.

INTERPRETATION

The improvement in primary health-care coverage in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico over the past two decades has substantially contributed to improving child survival. Expansion of primary health-care coverage should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health effects of the current economic crisis and to achieve Sustainable Development Goals related to child health.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Evaluating social protection mitigation effects on HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis through a mathematical modelling study

The global economic downturn due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and worldwide inflation surge may have a profound impact on poverty-related infectious diseases, especially in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this work, we developed mathematical models for HIV/AIDS and Tuberculosis (TB) in Brazil, one of the largest and most unequal LMICs, incorporating poverty rates and temporal dynamics to evaluate and forecast the impact of the increase in poverty due to the economic crisis, and estimate the mitigation effects of alternative poverty-reduction policies on the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB up to 2030. Three main intervention scenarios were simulated-an economic crisis followed by the implementation of social protection policies with none, moderate, or strong coverage-evaluating the incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB. Without social protection policies to mitigate the impact of the economic crisis, the burden of HIV/AIDS and TB would be significantly larger over the next decade, being responsible in 2030 for an incidence 13% (95% CI 4-31%) and mortality 21% (95% CI 12-34%) higher for HIV/AIDS, and an incidence 16% (95% CI 10-25%) and mortality 22% (95% CI 15-31%) higher for TB, if compared with a scenario of moderate social protection. These differences would be significantly larger if compared with a scenario of strong social protection, resulting in more than 230,000 cases and 34,000 deaths from AIDS and TB averted over the next decade in Brazil. Using a comprehensive approach, that integrated economic forecasting with mathematical and epidemiological models, we were able to show the importance of implementing robust social protection policies to avert a significant increase in incidence and mortality from AIDS and TB during the current global economic downturn.

Current and Projected Mortality and Hospitalization Rates Associated With Conditional Cash Transfer, Social Pension, and Primary Health Care Programs in Brazil, 2000-2030

Importance

The health outcomes of increased poverty and inequalities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have been substantially amplified as a consequence of converging multiple crises. Brazil has some of the world's largest conditional cash transfer (Programa Bolsa Família [PBF]), social pension (Beneficio de Prestacão Continuada [BPC]), and primary health care (Estratégia de Saúde da Família [ESF]) programs that could act as mitigating interventions during the current polycrisis era of increasing poverty, slow or contracting economic growth, and conflicts.

Objective

To evaluate the combined association of the Brazilian conditional cash transfer, social pension, and primary health care programs with the reduction of morbidity and mortality over the last 2 decades and forecast their potential mitigation of the current global polycrisis and beyond.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a longitudinal ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models (adjusted for relevant socioeconomic, demographic, and health care variables) integrating the retrospective analysis from 2000 to 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. Participants included a cohort of 2548 Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019, projected from 2020 to 2030. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023.

Exposure

PBF coverage of the target population (those who were poorest) was categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%). ESF coverage was categorized as null (0), low (0.1%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), and consolidated (70.0%-100%). BPC coverage was categorized by terciles.

Main outcomes and measures

Age-standardized, all-cause mortality and hospitalization rates calculated for the entire population and by age group (<5 years, 5-29 years, 30-69 years, and ≥70 years).

Results

Among the 2548 Brazilian municipalities studied from 2004 to 2019, the mean (SD) age-standardized mortality rate decreased by 16.64% (from 6.73 [1.14] to 5.61 [0.94] deaths per 1000 population). Consolidated coverages of social welfare programs studied were all associated with reductions in overall mortality rates (PBF: rate ratio [RR], 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96]; ESF: RR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.93-0.94]; BPC: RR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.91-0.92]), having all together prevented an estimated 1 462 626 (95% CI, 1 332 128-1 596 924) deaths over the period 2004 to 2019. The results were higher on mortality for the group younger than age 5 years (PBF: RR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.85-0.90]; ESF: RR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.87-0.93]; BPC: RR, 0.84 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]), on mortality for the group aged 70 years and older, and on hospitalizations. Considering a shorter scenario of economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of PBF, BPC, and ESF to proportionally cover the newly poor and at-risk individuals was projected to avert 1 305 359 (95% CI, 1 163 659-1 449 256) deaths and 6 593 224 (95% CI, 5 534 591-7 651 327) hospitalizations up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity scenarios that would reduce the coverage of these interventions.

Conclusions and relevance

This cohort study's results suggest that combined expansion of conditional cash transfers, social pensions, and primary health care should be considered a viable strategy to mitigate the adverse health outcomes of the current global polycrisis in LMICs, whereas the implementation of fiscal austerity measures could result in large numbers of preventable deaths.

Undernutrition, and overweight and obesity: the two faces of malnutrition in Brazil, analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to analyse the global burden of disease attributable to undernutrition and high body mass index (BMI) in Brazil and its 27 states, as well as its association with the socio-demographic index (SDI) from 1990 to 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

This is an epidemiological time-series study.

METHODS

This study analysed the undernutrition and high BMI estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study conducted from 1990 to 2019 for Brazil and its states, using the following metrics: absolute number of deaths, standardised mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This study also analysed the correlation between the percentage variation of mortality rates and SDI.

RESULTS

A decrease in the number of deaths (-75 %), mortality rate (-75.1 %), and DALYS (-72 %) attributable to undernutrition was found in Brazil and in all regions. As regarding the high BMI, an increase in the number of deaths was found (139.6 %); however, the mortality rate (-9.7) and DALYs (-6.4 %) declined in all regions, except in the North and Northeast regions, which showed an increase. A strong correlation was identified between undernutrition and high BMI with SDI.

CONCLUSION

Our study observed a double burden of malnutrition in Brazil, with a reduction in the burden of diseases due to malnutrition in Brazil and variation in the burden due to high BMI according to the socioeconomic status of the region. Public policies are necessary in order to guarantee the human right to a healthy and sustainable diet, together with food and nutrition security and a diminishing of social inequality.

[Temporal trend in the prevalence of malnutrition in children under five assisted by the Brazilian Income Transfer Program (2008-2019)]

This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of malnutrition in children aged under five years assisted by the Brazilian Income Transfer Program from 2008 to 2019, by exploring regional inequalities and seeking to determine the impact of the economic and political crises aggravated in 2014, and the government's adherence to fiscal austerity policies on the trend. The analyses were performed using aggregated data from infants (0-23 months) and preschoolers (24-59 months), extracted from the Brazilian Food and Nutritional Surveillance System (SISVAN) assisted by the Brazilian Income Transfer Program (n = 34,272,024). Trends were analyzed using generalized linear models with age-specific mixed effects (negative binomial distribution and log linkage function). The regional inequalities were analyzed based on the grouping of Federative Units according to the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the influence of crises and austerity policies on the prevalence of malnutrition by the interaction between "year" and "crisis" (2008-2013 vs. 2014-2019). There was a reduction in the prevalence of child malnutrition until mid-2013, when the trends became stationary for preschoolers and upward for infants. There was also a higher risk of malnutrition in Federative Units with medium- and high-social vulnerability, when compared to those with low-social vulnerability. The inflection points in the trends corroborate the hypothesis that the political and economic crises, and the governmental responses to these crises, negatively impacted the nutritional status of children in poverty and extreme poverty in Brazil.

Population Prevalence of Trachoma in Nine Rural Non-Indigenous Evaluation Units of Brazil

PURPOSE

To assess the contemporary prevalence of trachoma in Brazil's non-indigenous population, surveys of those thought to be at greatest risk of disease were conducted.

METHODS

Rural census tracts of non-indigenous population from nine mesoregions were selected to compose the survey evaluation units (EUs) by considering previously endemic municipalities at greatest risk of trachoma. In each of the nine EUs, we conducted a population-based prevalence survey. Every resident of selected households aged ≥ 1 year was examined for trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) and trachomatous trichiasis (TT). Additionally, data were collected on household-level access to water, sanitation, hygiene (WASH) and education.

RESULTS

A total of 27,962 individuals were examined across nine EUs. The age-adjusted TF prevalence in 1-9-year-olds was <5% in each EU. The age- and gender-adjusted prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in ≥15-year-olds was <0.2% in eight EUs; in one EU, it was 0.22%. The median number of households surveyed per EU with access to an improved drinking water source within a 30-minute roundtrip of the house was 66%. School attendance was >99% of surveyed children.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of TF was well below the target for elimination as a public health problem in all EUs. Because EUs surveyed were selected to represent the highest-risk non-indigenous areas of the country, TF prevalence is unlikely to be ≥5% in non-indigenous populations elsewhere. In one EU, the prevalence of TT was above the target threshold for elimination. Further investigation and possibly improvement in TT surgical provision are required in that EU.

Infant mortality in the municipality of São Paulo: trend and social inequality (2006-2019)

OBJECTIVE

Considering the published evidence on the impact of recent economic crises and the implementation of fiscal austerity policies in Brazil on various health indicators, this study aims to analyze how the trend and socio-spatial inequality of infant mortality behaved in the municipality of São Paulo from 2006 to 2019.

METHODS

This is an ecological study with a temporal trend analysis that was developed in municipality of São Paulo, using three residence area strata differentiated according to their social vulnerability following the 2010 São Paulo Social Vulnerability Index. Infant mortality rate, as well as neonatal, and post-neonatal mortality rates, were calculated for each social vulnerability stratum, each year in the period, and for the first and last three triennia. Temporal trends were analyzed by the Prais-Winsten regression model and inequality magnitude, by rate ratios.

RESULTS

We found a decline in infant mortality rate and its components from 2006 to 2015, greater in the stratum with low social vulnerability and in the post-neonatal period when compared to the neonatal one. This decline ended in 2015, stagnating in the next period (2016-2019). Our analysis of infant mortality inequality across social vulnerability stratum showed a significant increase from the initial to the final triennia in the analyzed period; rate ratios increased from 1.36 to 1.48 in the high stratum (compared to the low social vulnerability stratum), and from 1.19 to 1.32 between the medium and low social vulnerability strata.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed stagnation of infant mortality rate decline in 2015 and the increase in socio-spatial inequality point to the urgent need to reformulate current public policies to reverse this situation and reduce inequalities in the risk of infant death.

The combined effect of social pensions and cash transfers on child mortality: evaluating the last two decades in Brazil and projecting their mitigating effect during the global economic crisis

Background

The world is currently experiencing multiple economic crises due to the COVID-19 pandemic, war in Ukraine, and inflation surge, which disproportionately affect children, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We evaluated if the expansion of Social Assistance, represented by Social Pensions (SP) and Conditional Cash Transfers (CCT), could reduce infant and child mortality, and mitigate excess deaths among children in Brazil, one of the LMICs most affected by these economic crises.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective impact evaluation in a cohort of Brazilian municipalities from 2004 to 2019 using multivariable fixed-effects negative binomial models, adjusted for relevant demographic, social, and economic factors, to estimate the effects of the SP and CCT on infant and child mortality. To verify the robustness of the results, we conducted several sensitivity and triangulation analyses, including difference-in-difference with propensity-score matching. These results were incorporated into dynamic microsimulation models to generate projections to 2030 of various economic crises and Social Assistance scenarios.

Findings

Consolidated coverage of SP was associated with significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates, with a rate ratio (RR) of 0.843 (95% CI: 0.826-0.861) and 0.840 (95% CI: 0.824-0.856), respectively. Similarly, CCT consolidated coverages showed RRs of 0.868 (95% CI: 0.842-0.849) and 0.874 (95% CI: 0.850-0.899) for infant and child mortality, respectively. The higher the degree of poverty in the municipalities, the stronger the impact of CCT on reducing child mortality. Given the current economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of SP and CCT could avert 148,736 (95% CI: 127,148-170,706) child deaths up to 2030, compared with fiscal austerity measures.

Interpretation

SP and CCT programs could strongly reduce child mortality in LMICs, and their expansion should be considered as an effective strategy to mitigate the impact of the current multiple global economic crises.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Grant_Number:INV-027961. Medical Research Council(MRC-UKRI),Grant_Number:MC_PC_MR/T023678/1.

Impact of cash transfer programs on birth and child growth outcomes: systematic review

To investigate the impact of cash transfer (CTs) on birth outcomes, including birth weight, low birth weight and prematurity, as well as child physical growth were included, as assessed by anthropometric indices in children under five years of age. Searching was performed using the PubMed/Medline, Embase, LILACS, Cochrane Library, Scopus and Web of Science databases. Quantitative observational, experimental and quasi-experimental. Eleven studies were included in the review. The majority (81.8%) were carried out in low-and middle-income countries and most involved conditional CTs (63.6%). Four were clinical trials and seven were observational studies. Conditional CTs were found to be associated with a reduction in height-for-age (-0.14; 95%CI -0.27, -0.02); (OR 0.85; 95%CI 0.77-0.94); (OR = 0.44; 95%CI 0.19-0.98), a significantly reduced chance of low weight-for-age (OR = 0.16; 95%CI -0.11-0.43), low weight-for-height (OR = -0.68; 95%CI -1.14, -0.21), and low weight-for-age (OR = 0.27; 95%CI 0.10; 0.71). Unconditional CTs were associated with reduced birth weight (RR = 0.71; 95%CI 0.63-0.81; p < 0.0001) and preterm births (RR = 0.76; 95%CI 0.69-0.84; p < 0.0001). Conditional CTs can positively influence birth outcomes and child growth.

Evaluation and Forecasting Analysis of the Association of Conditional Cash Transfer With Child Mortality in Latin America, 2000-2030

Importance

Latin America has implemented the world's largest and most consolidated conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs during the last 2 decades. As a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, poverty rates have markedly increased, and a large number of newly low-income individuals, especially children, have been left unprotected.

Objective

To evaluate the association of CCT programs with child health in Latin American countries during the last 2 decades and forecast child mortality trends up to 2030 according to CCT alternative implementation options.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a multicountry, longitudinal, ecological design with multivariable negative binomial regression models, which were adjusted for all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables, integrating the retrospective impact evaluations from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, with dynamic microsimulation models to forecast potential child mortality scenarios up to 2030. The study cohort included 4882 municipalities from Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico with adequate quality of civil registration and vital statistics according to a validated multidimensional criterion. Data analysis was performed from September 2022 to February 2023.

Exposure

Conditional cash transfer coverage of the target (lowest-income) population categorized into 4 levels: low (0%-29.9%), intermediate (30.0%-69.9%), high (70.0%-99.9%), and consolidated (≥100%).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were mortality rates for those younger than 5 years and hospitalization rates (per 1000 live births), overall and by poverty-related causes (diarrheal, malnutrition, tuberculosis, malaria, lower respiratory tract infections, and HIV/AIDS), and the mortality rates for those younger than 5 years by age groups, namely, neonatal (0-28 days), postneonatal (28 days to 1 year), infant (<1 year), and toddler (1-4 years).

Results

The retrospective analysis included 4882 municipalities. During the study period of January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019, mortality in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico decreased by 7.8% in children and 6.5% in infants, and an increase in coverage of CCT programs of 76.8% was observed in these Latin American countries. Conditional cash transfer programs were associated with significant reductions of mortality rates in those younger than 5 years (rate ratio [RR], 0.76; 95% CI, 0.75-0.76), having prevented 738 919 (95% CI, 695 641-782 104) child deaths during this period. The association of highest coverage of CCT programs was stronger with poverty-related diseases, such as malnutrition (RR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.31-0.35), diarrhea (RR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.40-0.43), lower respiratory tract infections (RR, 0.66, 95% CI, 0.65-0.68), malaria (RR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.93), tuberculosis (RR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.48-0.79), and HIV/AIDS (RR, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.28-0.37). Several sensitivity and triangulation analyses confirmed the robustness of the results. Considering a scenario of moderate economic crisis, a mitigation strategy that will increase the coverage of CCTs to protect those newly in poverty could reduce the mortality rate for those younger than 5 years by up to 17% (RR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.80-0.85) and prevent 153 601 (95% CI, 127 441-180 600) child deaths by 2030 in Brazil, Ecuador, and Mexico.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this cohort study suggest that the expansion of CCT programs could strongly reduce childhood hospitalization and mortality in Latin America and should be considered an effective strategy to mitigate the health impact of the current global economic crisis in low- and middle-income countries.

Is primary health care worth it in the long run? Evidence from Brazil

This paper assesses whether Brazilian primary health care is worth it in the long-run by estimating the accumulated costs and benefits of its flagship, the Family Health Strategy program (ESF). We employ an alternative strategy centered on years of exposure to the program to incorporate its dynamics. We also account for the program's heterogeneity with respect to the remuneration of ESF health teams and the intensity of coverage across Brazilian municipalities, measure by the number of people assisted by each ESF team, on average. To address heterogeneity in professional earnings, this paper employs, for the first time, a dataset containing the remuneration of professionals allocated to all ESF teams nationwide. The benefits are measured by the avoided deaths and hospitalizations due to causes sensitive to primary care. Results suggest that the net monetary benefit of the program is positive on average, with an optimum time of exposure of approximately 16 years. Significant heterogeneities in cost-benefit results were found since costs outweigh benefits in localities where the coverage is low intensive. On the other hand, the benefits outweigh the costs by 22.5% on average in municipalities with high intensive coverage.

What is the impact of national public expenditure and its allocation on neonatal and child mortality? A machine learning analysis

BACKGROUND

Understanding the impact of national public expenditure and its allocation on child mortality may help governments move towards target 3.2 proposed in the 2030 Agenda. The objective of this study was to estimate the impacts of governmental expenditures, total, on health, and on other sectors, on neonatal mortality and mortality of children aged between 28 days and five years.

METHODS

This study has an ecological design with a population of 147 countries, with data between 2012 and 2019. Two steps were used: first, the Generalized Propensity Score of public spending was calculated; afterward, the Generalized Propensity Score was used to estimate the expenditures' association with mortality rates. The primary outcomes were neonatal mortality rates (NeoRt) and mortality rates in children between 28 days and 5 years (NeoU5Rt).

RESULTS

The 1% variation in Int$ Purchasing Power Parity (Int$ PPP) per capita in total public expenditures, expenditure in health, and in other sectors were associated with a variation of -0.635 (95% CI -1.176, -0.095), -2.17 (95% CI -3.051, -1.289) -0.632 (95% CI -1.169, -0.095) in NeoRt, respectively The same variation in public expenditures in sectors other than health, was associates with a variation of -1.772 (95% CI -6.219, -1.459) on NeoU5Rt. The results regarding the impact of total and health public spending on NeoU5Rt were not consistent.

CONCLUSION

Public investments impact mortality in children under 5 years of age. Likely, the allocation of expenditures between the health sector and the other social sectors will have different impacts on mortality between the NeoRt and the NeoU5Rt.

Temporal trends of morbidities, and risk and protective factors for noncommunicable diseases in elderly residents in Brazilian capitals

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trends of prevalence of morbidities, risk and protection factors for noncommunicable diseases in elderly residents in Brazilian capitals between 2006 and 2021.

METHODS

A time series study with data from the Surveillance System of Risk and Protective Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Inquiry. The variables analyzed were: high blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, overweight, obesity, consumption of alcoholic beverages, soft drinks, fruits and vegetables, and the practice of physical activity. Prais-Winsten regression and Interrupted Time Series from 2006 to 2014 and 2015 to 2021 were used.

RESULTS

From 2006 to 2021, for the total elderly population, there was an increase in diabetes (19.2 to 28.4%), alcohol consumption (2.5 to 3.2%), overweight (52.4 to 60.7%) and obesity (16.8 to 21.8%), and a reduction in the prevalence of smokers (9.4 to 7.4%) and in soft drink consumption (17 to 8.7%). By the interrupted series, between 2015 and 2021, there was stability in the prevalence of diabetes, female smokers, overweight among men, obesity in the total and male population, and soft drink consumption.

CONCLUSION

Over the years, there have been changes and worsening in the indicators analyzed, such as an increase in diabetes, alcohol consumption, overweight, and obesity, which reinforces the importance of continuous monitoring and sustainability programs to promote the health, especially in the context of economic crisis, austerity, and COVID-19 pandemic.

Model Choice for Quantitative Health Impact Assessment and Modelling: An Expert Consultation and Narrative Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Health impact assessment (HIA) is a widely used process that aims to identify the health impacts, positive or negative, of a policy or intervention that is not necessarily placed in the health sector. Most HIAs are done prospectively and aim to forecast expected health impacts under assumed policy implementation. HIAs may quantitatively and/ or qualitatively assess health impacts, with this study focusing on the former. A variety of quantitative modelling methods exist that are used for forecasting health impacts, however, they differ in application area, data requirements, assumptions, risk modelling, complexities, limitations, strengths, and comprehensibility. We reviewed relevant models, so as to provide public health researchers with considerations for HIA model choice.

METHODS

Based on an HIA expert consultation, combined with a narrative literature review, we identified the most relevant models that can be used for health impact forecasting. We narratively and comparatively reviewed the models, according to their fields of application, their configuration and purposes, counterfactual scenarios, underlying assumptions, health risk modelling, limitations and strengths.

RESULTS

Seven relevant models for health impacts forecasting were identified, consisting of (i) comparative risk assessment (CRA), (ii) time series analysis (TSA), (iii) compartmental models (CMs), (iv) structural models (SMs), (v) agent-based models (ABMs), (vi) microsimulations (MS), and (vii) artificial intelligence (AI)/machine learning (ML). These models represent a variety in approaches and vary in the fields of HIA application, complexity and comprehensibility. We provide a set of criteria for HIA model choice. Researchers must consider that model input assumptions match the available data and parameter structures, the available resources, and that model outputs match the research question, meet expectations and are comprehensible to end-users.

CONCLUSION

The reviewed models have specific characteristics, related to available data and parameter structures, computational implementation, interpretation and comprehensibility, which the researcher should critically consider before HIA model choice.

Economic burden of depression in Brazil: a cost-of-illness study based on productivity losses and healthcare costs between 2010 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Depression is disabling disorder and cause functional impairments, and high costs for the health and social security system.

OBJECTIVE

The direct and indirect costs of depression from the societal perspective were estimated for the period 2010 to 2018.

METHODS

This cost-of-illness study in adults is based on prevalence, with a top-down approach, from the societal perspective. Direct (hospital and outpatient) and indirect (absenteeism) costs were included. Data were extracted from the Hospital and Outpatient Information Systems and the National Social Security Institute.

RESULTS

The cost of depression was Int$ 2,288,511,607.39 in the analyzed period, with an average annual cost of Int$ 254,279,067.49. From 2014 to 2018, had a sharp and persistent decrease in the cost of depression (-44.24%), mainly in indirect costs (-55.83%). In the period investigated, indirect costs represented 74.85% of the total cost. Over time, outpatient surpassed hospital cost. In 2017 and 2018, outpatient costs represented 43.22% and 39.57% of total costs. In all the years and cost components analyzed, women predominated.

CONCLUSIONS

Depression is a disease with a high economic burden for the healthcare system. Investments are still needed, such as higher coverage of services, multidisciplinary teams, and training of health professionals for psychosocial care.

Distributive conflict: analysis of the Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care (PMAQ-AB) in two Brazilian northeastern capitals

Este artigo analisa a execução do PMAQ-AB a partir de sua contextualização em um cenário político nacional de profundas transformações, desde o reformismo fraco que promoveu lenta extensão de direitos até o contrarreformismo forte da restauração neoliberal. Para debater os elementos relacionados ao trabalho e às disputas pela distribuição dos recursos públicos, foi realizado estudo de caso com trabalhadores, gestores e conselheiros de saúde em duas capitais do nordeste brasileiro. Os resultados evidenciam o acirramento do conflito distributivo e o resultado desfavorável aos trabalhadores no contexto pós-golpe parlamentar de 2016. As dinâmicas locais expõem processos de contração salarial e individualização das relações de trabalho e a reafirmação da meritocracia como justificativa ideológica da precarização. A isso, trabalhadores se contrapõem pela reafirmação de sua condição coletiva de classe, em favor de benefícios derivados do PMAQ, como recomposição salarial para todos.

Distributive conflict: analysis of the Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care (PMAQ-AB) in two Brazilian northeastern capitals

This article analyzes the implementation of the Program for Improving Access and Quality of Primary Care (PMAQ-AB) in the context of a national political scenario of deep transformations, from the weak reformism that promoted slow extension of rights to the strong counter-reformism of neoliberal restoration. It is a case study with health workers, managers, and counselors in two capital cities in northeastern Brazil, discussing matters of work and distributive disputes of public resources. Results show the intensification of these conflicts in health and the unfavorable outcome for workers after the parliamentary coup in 2016 political context. Local dynamics expose the wage contraction and individualization of labor relations and the reassertion of meritocracy as an ideological ground for precariousness. Workers oppose this, reaffirming their collective class condition, favoring the benefit derived from PMAQ for fully regaining their group wages.

Characteristics and temporal trends of mortality rates in children and adolescents in Mato Grosso and Brazil, 2009-2020

OBJECTIVE

to analyze the characteristics and temporal trend of mortality rates in the population aged 5 to 14 years in Mato Grosso state and in Brazil, from 2009 to 2020.

METHODS

this was an ecological time-series study, based on data taken from the Mortality Information System. Descriptive and trend analyses were performed, using the joinpoint regression model and calculating the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

RESULTS

in Brazil and in Mato Grosso state, deaths were predominantly male, preventable and due to external causes. A falling trend was identified for Brazil (5-9 years AAPC: -2.9; 95%CI -4.3;-1.6 and 10-14 years AAPC: -2.5; 95%CI -3.3;-1.8), while a stationary trend was found in Mato Grosso (5-9 years AAPC: -2.0; 95%CI -5.6;1.7 and 10-14 years AAPC: -0.1; 95%CI -5.9;6.1).

CONCLUSION

the stable trend of mortality at high levels demands urgent interventions to reduce it.

Prevalência de exposição às situações de violência em estudantes adolescentes brasileiros

Objetivo: descrever e comparar os indicadores de exposição a situações de violência por estudantes adolescentes segundo sexo, tipo de escola e unidades federadas, em 2015 e 2019. Métodos: estudo transversal, descritivo com dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde do Escolar. Foram descritas e comparadas as prevalências e respectivos intervalos de confiança de 95% (IC95%) dos indicadores de exposição às situações de violência envolvendo adolescentes. Resultados: referiram ter faltado a escola: por insegurança no trajeto 11,6% (IC95%:11,1;12,1); por insegurança na escola 10,8% (IC95%:10,3;11,2); maiores prevalências foram nas meninas e estudantes de escolas públicas. Dentre os indicadores do estudo: a prevalência de escolares que estiveram envolvidos em briga com luta física foi de 10,6% (IC95%:10,2;11,0), em briga com utilização de arma de fogo 2,9% (IC95%:2,7;3,1); uso de arma branca 4,8% (IC95%:4,5;5,1), destes a maioria eram meninos, que estudavam em escolas públicas. Relataram ter sofrido acidente ou agressão no último ano 18,2% (IC95%:17,7;18,7), 21,0% (IC95%:20,5;21,6) foram agredidos pela mãe/pai/responsável e a maioria oriundos de escolas particulares. Ocorreu melhorias nos seguintes indicadores entre 2015 e 2019: envolver em briga com arma de fogo, 6,4% (IC95%: 5,6;7,2) em (2015) para 2,9% (IC95%:2,7;3,1) (2019); envolver-se em briga com arma branca: de 7,9% (IC95%:7,0;8,8) (2015) para 4,8% (IC95%:4,5;5,1) em (2019). Conclusão: os adolescentes estão expostos a violências no âmbito escolar ou comunitária, além de sofrerem violências no ambiente intrafamiliar/doméstico. Essas instituições deveriam ser capazes de garantir a proteção e o desenvolvimento saudável e seguro do adolescente.

The COVID-19 pandemic and changes in eating habits of Brazilian adolescents

Introduction

The social distancing imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic influenced lifestyle and modified dietary patterns. Our objective was to evaluate the consumption of fruits and vegetables (FV), and ultra-processed foods (UPF), before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify the sociodemographic factors associated.

Methods

This study used data from the "Convid Adolescents", a survey on health behaviors that were collected through an online questionnaire self-completed by 9.470 adolescents between 12 and 17 years of age during the pandemic in Brazil in 2020. Individuals were invited to participate through a chain-sampling procedure called "virtual snowballing". Information about FV, and UPF consumption before and during the pandemic period were reported. The independent variables used were sex, age group, race/color of skin, kind of school, education level of the mother, region of Brazil, financial difficulties during the pandemic, food insecurity, and social restrictions. Logistic regression models were used.

Results

There was a reduction in the low consumption of FV (83.5% to 80.3%) and there was no significant difference in the high consumption of UPF (38.9% to 38.1%) before and during the pandemic. The incidence of low consumption of FV and high consumption of UPF during the pandemic was 20% and 13.8%, respectively. Girls, private school adolescents, who reported having food insecurity and financial difficulties during the pandemic were the most affected subgroups.

Conclusions

Despite little change in the prevalence of FV and UPF consumption before and during the pandemic, the incidence of high consumption of UPF and low FV consumption was high, and it identified in specific population subgroups.

Planetary health and health education in Brazil: Facing inequalities

Brazil has the world's fifth-largest population and seventh-largest economy. However, it also has many inequalities, especially in health education, which impacts health sector services. Thus, this article aims to describe the situation of planetary health and health education in Brazil, identifying how current policies support the cause of planetary health. This study had a qualitative approach characterised as exploratory research based on an integrative review and documentary research. The results show that, in recent decades, there have been positive improvements to achieve collective and planetary health, which advocates empathy and pro-environmental and humanitarian attitudes. However, the pursuit of planetary health in Brazil is being influenced by various challenges, ranging from the need for a sound policy framework to provisions of education and training on planetary health. Based on the need to address these deficiencies, the paper suggests some measures which should be considered as part of efforts to realise the potential of planetary health in the fifth largest country in the world.

Care actions for newborns and factors associated with longitudinality in the follow-up care in the neonatal period: Care actions for the newborn

As newborns are highly vulnerable, they require essential care for adequate child development. This study aimed to assess the care provided to newborns during the first 28 days of life and identify factors associated with adequate care. This was a longitudinal study conducted with 415 mothers and full-term newborns from 4 public maternity hospitals in Natal, Brazil, in 2019. Assistance, socioeconomic, and demographic data were collected 3 times: 48 hours, 7 days, and 28 days after birth. Pearson's chi-square and Poisson regression tests were used with a confidence interval of 95%. Most mothers were between 20 and 29 years old (46.5%), had a high school or higher education (65.3%), a partner (79%), an income of ≤ 1 minimum wage (64, 6%), and were multiparous (62.9%). A total of 29 actions performed in maternity hospitals and 11 in primary healthcare were evaluated. Among the first, 8 (27.6%) were satisfactory; 11 (37.9%), partially satisfactory; and 10 (34.5%), unsatisfactory. In primary care, 2 actions (18.2%) were considered satisfactory; 3 (27.3%) partially satisfactory; and 6 (54.5%) unsatisfactory. In the multivariate analysis of the composite indicators related to adequacy of care, women undergoing vaginal delivery, those who are multiparous, and maternity hospitals at usual risk were associated with better adequacy of care indicators (P ≤ .05). Maternity hospitals accredited to the Baby-Friendly Hospital Initiative had lower chances of the adequacy of promotion to exclusive breastfeeding. The sample loss rate was 13.7% in the first week and 16.6% at the end of the study period. There was inadequacy in the performance of care actions for newborns regarding access and comprehensiveness of care. These weaknesses highlight the need for reassessing skills and coordinating actions in the child's healthcare network.

Changes in the Infant Mortality Rate in Twin Towns of Brazil: An Ecological Study

BACKGROUND

The infant mortality rate (IMR) is a proxy of the living and health conditions of a given population, which allows us to assess the risk of death for children under one year. Although there is, in general, a reduction in infant mortality in Brazil little is known about this indicator in the regions and cities located on the international borders of the Brazilian territory and the changes that occurred in the face of the migratory impact of the Americas in the period from 1996 to 2020. The objectives of this study are to assess IMR in Brazilian Twin Cities (municipalities that are located on the border with a large influx of people) and its social determinants over time.

METHODS

This is an ecological study, whose units of analysis were the Brazilian Twin Cities, between 1996 and 2020, based on data on births and deaths in children under one year, available in the public vital information system in Brazil. Data were identified by the city in which the infant death occurred in addition to the mother's primary city of residence. Correlation measurements were performed to test the associations of the IMR means between the independent variables.

RESULTS

The Twin Cities (Bonfim, Tabatinga, Pacaraima, Porto Murtinho, Cáceres, Foz do Iguaçu, Santo Antônio do Sudoeste e Dionísio Cerqueira) had higher numbers of infant deaths per place of occurrence than the number of deaths per place of maternal residence. The Northern Twin Cities exhibited the highest IMRs. Cities in the Midwest region showed variability. In the South region, most cities showed low rates. A positive correlation was identified with the Gini index with r = 0.67 and a negative correlation with the Municipal Human Development Index indicator of r= -0.70.

CONCLUSIONS

The averages of IMRs in the Twin Cities were higher than in their States. In recent years, there has been an upward trend in infant mortality in these cities.

Barreto M. The impact of social drivers, conditional cash transfers and their mechanisms on the mental health of the young; an integrated retrospective and forecasting approach using the 100 million Brazilian Cohort: A study protocol

Background

Physical, emotional, and social changes, including exposure to poverty, abuse, or violence, increases youth vulnerability to mental illness. These factors interfere with development, limit opportunities, and hamper achievement of a fulfilling life as adults. Addressing these issues can lead to improved outcomes at the population level and better cost-effectiveness for health services. Cash transfer programs have been a promising way to address social drivers for poor mental health. However, it is still unclear which pathways and mechanisms explain the association between socioeconomic support and lower mental illness among youth. Therefore, we will evaluate the effect of social drivers on youth mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide, test mechanisms and pathways of a countrywide socioeconomic intervention, and examine the timing of the intervention during the life course.

Methods

We will combine individual-level data from youth national hospitalization, mental health disorders and attempted suicide, suicide registries and notifications of violence, with large-scale databases, including “The 100 Million Brazilian Cohort”, over an 18-year period (2001–2018). Several approaches will be used for the retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations, such as Regression Discontinuity Designs, Propensity Score Matching and difference-in-differences, combined with multivariable regressions for cohort analyses. We will run multivariate regressions based on hierarchical analysis approach to evaluate the association between important social drivers (mental health care, demographic and economic aspects) on mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide among youth. Furthermore, we will perform microsimulations to generate projections regarding how mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide trends will be in the future based on the current state, and how BFP implementation scenarios will affect these trends.

Discussion

The results of this project will be of vital importance to guide policies and programs to improve mental health and reduce mental health-related hospitalizations and suicide in youth. It will provide information to improve the effectiveness of these programs worldwide. If cash transfers can decrease mental health problems among youth and reduce suicide.

Excess tuberculosis cases and deaths following an economic recession in Brazil: an analysis of nationally representative disease registry data

BACKGROUND

In 2019, tuberculosis incidence and mortality in Brazil were 46 and 3·3 per 100 000 population, respectively, and the country has reported rising tuberculosis case rates since 2016, following an economic crisis beginning in mid-2014. We aimed to estimate the number of excess tuberculosis cases and deaths during the recession period, and assessed potential causes.

METHODS

In this multi-level regression modelling study, we extracted tuberculosis case notifications from Brazil's National Notifiable Disease Information System (known as SINAN), and tuberculosis deaths from the Mortality Information System (known as SIM), for all ages. We fitted mixed-effects regression models estimating trends in these outcomes-stratified by sex, age group, and state-during the pre-recession period (Jan 1, 2010-Dec 31, 2014). We calculated excess cases and deaths between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2019 (the recession period) as the difference between reported values and a counterfactual of continued pre-recession trends. We examined the relationship between excess cases and possible explanatory factors using ordinary least squares regression. We tested the robustness of our findings to alternative model specifications related to the pre-recession period and criteria for defining tuberculosis deaths.

FINDINGS

We estimated 22 900 excess tuberculosis cases (95% uncertainty interval 18 100-27 500) during 2015-19. By 2019, reported cases were 12% (10-13) higher than predicted by historical trends. 54% (44-66) of excess cases occurred among 20-29-year-old men. In this group, reported cases in 2019 were 30% (25-36) higher than predicted. Excess cases were positively associated with an increasing fraction of cases among incarcerated individuals (p=0·001) and higher unemployment (p=0·04) at the state level. Estimated excess deaths for 2015-19 were not statistically significant from 0 (-600 [-2100 to 1000]). These results were robust to alternative definitions of the pre-recession period and criteria for defining tuberculosis deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Tuberculosis cases in Brazil rose substantially in 2015-19 during the recession, largely affecting young men. This increase seems to be linked to increasing tuberculosis transmission among incarcerated populations. Rising tuberculosis case rates threaten tuberculosis control in Brazil, and highlight the threat posed by prison-based tuberculosis transmission.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Overall mortality trends in Greece during the first period of austerity and the economic crisis (2009-2015)

OBJECTIVES

The economic crisis and the resulting austerity in Greece led to a drastic reduction in healthcare spending, which has been assumed to have impacted people's health. This paper discusses official standardized mortality rates in Greece between 2000 and 2015.

METHODS

This study was designed to analyze population-level data and collected data from the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Eurostat, and the Hellenic Statistics Authority. Separate linear regression models were developed for the periods before and after the crisis and were compared.

RESULTS

Standardized mortality rates do not support a previously reported assumption of a specific and direct negative effect of austerity on global mortality. Standardized rates continued to decrease linearly, and their correlation to economic variables changed after 2009. Total infant mortality rates show an overall rising trend since 2009, but the interpretation is unclear because of the reduction in the absolute number of deliveries.

CONCLUSIONS

The mortality data from the first six years of the financial crisis in Greece and the decade that preceded do not support the assumption that budget cuts in health are related to the dramatic worsening of the overall health of the Greek people. Still, data suggest an increase in specific causes of death and the burden on a dysfunctional and unprepared health system that is working in an overstretched manner trying to meet needs. The dramatic acceleration of the aging of the population constitutes a specific challenge for the health system. HIPPOKRATIA 2022, 26 (3):98-104.

COVID-19—What Price Do Children Pay? An Analysis of Economic and Social Policy Factors

Numerous studies have addressed the indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for children such as social isolation or increases in reported child maltreatment. Research on the economic and sociopolitical consequences is scarce as they can only be evaluated with a time lag. To improve our understanding of future, long-term developments in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, we gathered findings from the still unexploited empirical literature on the aftermath of earlier pandemics, epidemics, and other infectious disease outbreaks. On top of this, we scrutinized research on past economic crises to interpret the link between changes in the economy and the health of children. Many of the side effects of battling the spread of the current pandemic, such as school closures, the stigma of infection, or conflicts about vaccines, are not novel and have already been documented in connection with previous infectious disease outbreaks. Results highlight that changes in the financial situation of families and socio-political challenges affect the situation and daily routine of children and youth in the long term. In consequence, the already pronounced socioeconomic inequalities will likely further increase. On top of this, due to reduced revenues, child protective services are likely to face challenges in the availability of human and financial resources.

Effects of the economic recession on suicide mortality in Brazil: interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES

to analyze trends in suicide rates in Brazil in the period before and after the start of the economic recession.

METHODS

interrupted time series research using national suicide data recorded in the period between 2012 and 2017 with socioeconomic subgroups analyses. Quasi-Poisson regression model was employed to analyze trends in seasonally adjusted data.

RESULTS

there was an abrupt increase in the risk of suicide after economic recession in the population with less education (12.5%; RR = 1.125; 95%CI: 1.027; 1.232) and in the South Region (17.7%; 1.044; 1.328). After an abrupt reduction, there was a progressive increase in risk for the black and brown population and for those with higher education. In most other population strata, there was a progressive increase in the risk of suicide.

CONCLUSIONS

the Brazilian economic recession caused different effects on suicide rates, considering social strata, which requires health strategies and policies that are sensitive to the most vulnerable populations.

Admissions due to ambulatory care-sensitive conditions (ACSC): an analysis based on socio-demographic characteristics, Brazil and regions, 2010 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the temporal trend of hospital admissions due to Ambulatory Care-Sensitive Conditions (ACSC) in Brazil per sex, region, cause and age group, from 2010 to 2019.

METHODS

This is an ecological study based on the temporal trend of ACSC rates. Standardized rates were analyzed in a simple linear regression and a generalized linear model (GLM) Gamma. The percentage change was also checked over three periods: 2010-2014, 2015-2019 and 2010-2019.

RESULTS

There was a reduction in hospital admission rates between 2010 and 2019 for Brazil: 124.3/10,000 inhab. to 88.2/10,000 inhab. among women (-29.0%) and 119.0/10,000 inhab. to 88.2/10,000 inhab. (-25.9%) among men in all regions. The decrease was more prominent between 2010-2014 (-17.7%) and (-17.8%) than between 2015-2019 (-.2%) and (-5.9%) for females and males, respectively. The milder decline in the period from 2015 to 2019 was more noticeable among age groups 0-4y and 5-19y in all regions. As for the causes, most ICD-10 diseases had a downward trend, the more expressive ones being gastroenteritis (-60%); however, an increase was seen in cerebrovascular diseases among women (11.2%) and men (17.1%), and angina (15% %) and skin infections (56.1%) among men.

CONCLUSION

There was a significant drop in ACSC rates in the period analyzed, especially for age groups 0-4y and 5-19y. The rates had a milder drop from 2015 to 2019, a period of austerity and economic crisis.

Associations among diet costs, food prices and income: Elasticities of risk and protection food groups for cardiometabolic diseases in Sao Paulo, Brazil (2003-2015)

Background: Economic dimension comprises important determinants of food choices, particularly income and prices. Aim: Identification of the influence of food prices and diet costs on the consumption of food groups considered protection and risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. Methods: Food groups classification follows the proposal of "What we eat in America?" from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), adapted to Latin America. Data on food consumption from the Health Survey of Sao Paulo (2003, 2008, and 2015), representative at population level, was used. Log-linear regressions were estimated for food groups, controlling for endogeneity through augmented regression-test Results: Results showed increase in prices per calorie of whole grains and red meat from 2003-2015 and a decrease in prices per calorie of fruits, vegetables, beans, legumes, oilseeds and fish/seafood. Food groups had price elasticities between -0.01 and -1.6, i.e., decrease in consumption associated with increase in prices. Results showed statistically significant effects of substitution and complementarity, particularly substitution between sweetened beverages and fruits (2003, β = 0.606; 2008: β = 0.683; 2015, β = 0.848), complementarity between nuts and seeds and whole grains (2003, β = -0.646; 2008, β = -0.647; 2015,β = -0.901), and vegetables and processed meat (2003, β = -1.379; 2015, β = -1.685). Conclusion: Findings of the study represent relevant evidence for design strategies towards the adoption of healthier diets, particularly through subsidies to protection food groups, promoting lower prices and higher diet quality. The evidence may be useful for policymakers and researchers in fields of nutrition and health in diverse countries worldwide, especially due to absence of robust evidence in literature.

Primary care experiences among Brazilian adults: Cross-sectional evidence from the 2019 National Health Survey

Objectives

The Brazilian Family Health Strategy (FHS) is strongly associated with better health system performance, but there are no nationally-representative data examining individual-level primary care experiences in the country. Here, we examine reports of primary care experiences among adults with different forms of healthcare coverage (FHS, “traditional” public health posts, and private health plans).

Methods

Data are from the 2019 National Health Survey that included a shortened version of the Primary Care Assessment Tool (PCAT). PCAT questions were administered to a subsample of randomly-selected adults who had a doctor visit within the past 6 months and sought care in a primary care setting (9677 respondents). We used linear regression to examine the association between type of healthcare coverage and PCAT scores adjusted for sex, age, socioeconomic status, health status, geographic region and state of residence.

Results

Primary care experiences in the sample of Brazilians who had a doctor visit 6 months prior to the survey averaged a modest PCAT score of 57 out of 100. Regression models show that users of the FHS had superior primary care experiences, but with large variations across Brazilian regions and states. Individuals selected to respond to the PCAT questions were more likely to be female, older, and poorer, and to be in worse health than the general population.

Conclusions

Brazil’s FHS is associated with modest, but higher-reported primary care experiences than both traditional public health posts and those who have a private health plan. Future iterations of the PCAT module could enhance generalizability by including individuals who had a doctor visit in the past 12 (instead of 6) months.

Education-related health inequities in noncommunicable diseases: an analysis of the Brazilian National Health Survey, 2013 and 2019

This study assesses changes in the prevalence and distribution of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and related risk factors among Brazilian adults from the 2013 and 2019 Brazilian National Health Surveys (PNS). It is based on the hypothesis that deteriorating socioeconomic conditions over this period would lead to increased NCDs among the least advantaged populations. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios by education category and three inequality measures - the slope index of inequality (SII), the relative index of inequality (RII), and population attributable fraction (PAF) - for obesity, hypertension, arthritis, asthma, cancer, depression, diabetes, heart disease, having any chronic condition, and multimorbidity by survey year. We also estimated the 27 Brazilian Federative Units RII and prevalence rates for diabetes and multimorbidity per year and plotted the RII against prevalence by year. Results showed that all NCDs increased over the period observed, ranging from an 8% increase in the adjusted prevalence of arthritis to a 24% increase in the adjusted prevalence of obesity. Measures of inequality showed that most conditions exhibited significant educational inequities in both 2013 and 2019. However, on average, education-based inequities did not significantly change between the two periods. Considering the deterioration of the socioeconomic conditions of most Brazilians, the erosion of social protections, and the continuing economic, political, and health crises occurring in the nation, we observed an urgent need for discussion about the best way to adopt equity-promoting health policies and programs and action to reduce socioeconomic and geographic inequalities in NCDs throughout the country.

Morbidade hospitalar de crianças menores de cinco anos em um município brasileiro de fronteira

Objetivo: descrever as causas de hospitalização de crianças menores de cinco anos e os fatores associados às internações evitáveis em município brasileiro de tríplice fronteira. Método: estudo transversal, de morbidade hospitalar, com coleta de dados em prontuários, no hospital público de referência para atendimento pediátrico em município de tríplice fronteira entre Brasil, Paraguai e Argentina, no período de maio de 2017 a abril de 2018. As hospitalizações foram classificadas em evitáveis e não evitáveis. As variáveis independentes foram: diagnóstico médico; sexo; idade; período de internação; desfecho e país de residência. Foram estimadas as razões de prevalência bruta e ajustada pelo modelo de regressão log-binomial para verificar a associação entre a variável dependente, internações evitáveis e as variáveis independentes. Resultados: ocorreram 758 hospitalizações, sendo 45,1% consideradas evitáveis. As principais causas de internação foram as doenças do aparelho respiratório (42,8%), o grupo de causas indefinidas (13,8%) e as doenças infecciosas e parasitárias (10%). As hospitalizações evitáveis estiveram associadas com a faixa etária menor de um ano, maior tempo de internação e com o desfecho alta para casa. Conclusão: as internações evitáveis foram responsáveis por quase metade das hospitalizações, em sua maioria, por doenças do aparelho respiratório, sendo associadas em menores de um ano, maior tempo de hospitalização e melhor desfecho. Esses achados sugerem a necessidade de fortalecer as ações da Atenção Primária à Saúde por meio de investimento financeiro adequado para reduzir as hospitalizações desnecessárias.

Premature mortality due to four main non-communicable diseases and suicide in Brazil and its states from 1990 to 2019: A Global Burden of Disease Study

INTRODUCTION

The goal of reducing the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) requires close monitoring. Our objective is to characterize the decline of premature NCD mortality in Brazil based on Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) Study 2019 estimates.

METHODS

We used GBD 2019 data to estimate death rates of the four main NCDs - cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, diabetes, and chronic respiratory diseases. We estimated the unconditional probability of death between ages 30 to 69, as recommended by the World Health Organization, as well as premature crude- and age-standardized death rates and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost for these conditions. We also estimated trends in suicide (self-harm) death rates.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2019, the age-standardized unconditional probability of premature death declined -1.4%/year (UI: -1.7%;-1.0%) . Age-standardized death rates declined -1.5%/year (UI: -1.9%; -1.2%), and crude death rates -0.6%/year (UI: (-1.0%; -0.2%). Level of development correlated strongly with the rate of decline, with greatest declines occurring in the Southeast, Center West and South regions. Age-standardized mortality from self-harm declined, most notably in the elderly.

CONCLUSIONS

Premature mortality due to the main NCDs has declined from 1990 in Brazil, although at a diminishing rate over time. The unconditional probability of death and the age-standardized mortality rate produced similar estimates of decline for the four main NCDs, and mirror well decline in mortality from all NCDs. Declines, especially more recent ones, fall short of the international goals. Strategic public health actions are needed. The challenge to implement them will be great, considering the political and economic instability currently faced by Brazil.

Evolution of the quality of prenatal care in the primary network of Brazil from 2012 to 2018: What can (and should) improve?

The article describes the temporal evolution of prenatal quality indicators in the primary health care network in Brazil and investigates regional differences. This study used data from the external evaluation of Brazil's National Program for Improving Primary Care Access and Quality (PMAQ) with health teams participating in Cycles I, II and III of the Program, carried out respectively in 2012, 2013/14 and 2017/18. The number of visits, physical examination procedures, guidelines and request for laboratory tests were investigated. There was a positive evolution for tests-HIV, syphilis, blood glucose and ultrasound, and for all tests, guidance on feeding and weight gain of the baby and examination of the oral cavity. The indicators that performed the worst were: performance of tetanus vaccine, six or more visits, receiving guidance on exclusive breastfeeding and care for the newborn, and the procedures-all, measurement of uterine height, gynecological exam and cervix cancer prevention. These changes had a varied behavior between the regions of the country.

Contribution of primary care expansion to Sustainable Development Goal 3 for health: a microsimulation of the 15 largest cities in Brazil

OBJECTIVES

As middle-income countries strive to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it remains unclear to what degree expanding primary care coverage can help achieve those goals and reduce within-country inequalities in mortality. Our objective was to estimate the potential impact of primary care expansion on cause-specific mortality in the 15 largest Brazilian cities.

DESIGN

Microsimulation model.

SETTING

15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Simulated populations.

INTERVENTIONS

We performed survival analysis to estimate HRs of death by cause and by demographic group, from a national administrative database linked to the Estratégia de Saúde da Família (Family Health Strategy, FHS) electronic health and death records among 1.2 million residents of Rio de Janeiro (2010-2016). We incorporated the HRs into a microsimulation to estimate the impact of changing primary care coverage in the 15 largest cities by population size in Brazil.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Crude and age-standardised mortality by cause, infant mortality and under-5 mortality.

RESULTS

Increased FHS coverage would be expected to reduce inequalities in mortality among cities (from 2.8 to 2.4 deaths per 1000 between the highest-mortality and lowest-mortality city, given a 40 percentage point increase in coverage), between welfare recipients and non-recipients (from 1.3 to 1.0 deaths per 1,000), and among race/ethnic groups (between Black and White Brazilians from 1.0 to 0.8 deaths per 1,000). Even a 40 percentage point increase in coverage, however, would be insufficient to reach SDG targets alone, as it would be expected to reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases by 20% (vs the target of 33%), and communicable diseases by 15% (vs 100%).

CONCLUSIONS

FHS primary care coverage may be critically beneficial to reducing within-country health inequalities, but reaching SDG targets will likely require coordination between primary care and other sectors.

Tendência temporal (2008-2018) da prevalência de excesso de peso em lactentes e pré-escolares brasileiros de baixa renda

Resumo O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a tendência temporal da prevalência de excesso de peso (EP) em crianças menores de cinco anos assistidas pelo Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) entre 2008 e 2018. O painel de dados foi baseado nos relatórios de estado nutricional do Sistema de Vigilância Alimentar e Nutricional (SISVAN) (n=30.574.118) e analisado por meio de modelos de regressão joinpoint específicos para idade (lactentes e pré-escolares) e macrorregião. Ainda, calculou-se a cobertura do SISVAN para o PBF e a representatividade nacional, segundo projeção censitária. Na década analisada, o EP em lactentes reduziu de 11,9% (11,8; 12,0 IC95%) para 8,5% (8,4; 8,6 IC95%) (-3,6%/ano [-5,1; -2,0 IC95%]); quanto aos pré-escolares, a prevalência EP aumentou em 3,1%/ano (2,0; 4,2 IC95%) até 2015, seguida por uma retração até 2018 (-6,4%/ano [-10,1; -2,6 IC95%]). Em ambos os grupos etários, a região Norte apresentou a menor prevalência em toda série histórica e a Nordeste o pior desempenho no controle do EP infantil. A cobertura do SISVAN no PBF foi elevada e a representatividade dos dados variou entre 13,9% (Sul) e 42,2% (Nordeste). Apesar da prevalência estar acima do esperado, após 2014, identificou-se redução linear no EP em lactentes e desaceleração na taxa de crescimento nos pré-escolares.

Internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária (ICSAP): uma análise segundo características sociodemográficas, Brasil e regiões, 2010 a 2019

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a tendência temporal das internações por condições sensíveis à atenção primária (ICSAP) no Brasil, por sexo, regiões, causas e faixas etárias, no período de 2010 a 2019. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo ecológico baseado na tendência temporal das taxas de ICSAP. Foram analisadas as taxas padronizadas segundo regressão linear simples e modelo linear generalizado (MLG) gama. Observou-se também a variação percentual em três períodos: 2010–2014, 2015–2019 e 2010–2019. Resultados: Ocorreu redução nas taxas de internação entre 2010 e 2019 para Brasil: 124,3/10.000 hab. para 88,2/10.000 hab. em mulheres (-29,0%) e 119,0/10.000 hab. para 88,2/10.000 hab. (-25,9%) em homens, em todas as regiões. A queda foi maior entre 2010 e 2014 (-17,7% e -17,8%) do que entre 2015 e 2019 (-9,2% e -5,9%) — valores para sexo feminino e masculino, respectivamente. Esse declínio menor no período de 2015 a 2019 foi mais perceptível entre as faixas de zero a quatro anos e de cinco a 19 anos em todas as regiões. Quanto às causas, foi verificada redução para maioria dos códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID-10), mais expressiva para gastroenterites (-60%), entretanto tiveram aumento doenças cerebrovasculares entre mulheres (11,2%) e homens (17,1%) e angina (15%%) e infecções da pele (56,1%) entre homens. Conclusão: Ocorreu importante queda das taxas de ICSAP no período analisado, especialmente para as faixas etárias de zero a quatro e de cinco a 19. As taxas tiveram menor queda entre 2015 e 2019, período de austeridade e crise econômica.

Efeitos da recessão econômica na mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil: análise com séries temporais interrompidas

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar as tendências nas taxas de suicídio no Brasil, no período antes e depois do início da recessão econômica. Métodos: estudo de séries temporais interrompidas utilizando dados nacionais de suicídio registrados no período entre 2012 e 2017 com análises por subgrupos socioeconômicos. Modelo de regressão quasi-Poisson foi empregado para analisar as tendências dos dados ajustados sazonalmente. Resultados: observou-se aumento abrupto no risco de suicídio após recessão econômica na população com menor escolaridade (12,5%; RR = 1,125; IC95%:1,027; 1,232) e na Região Sul (17,7%; 1,044; 1,328). Após redução abrupta, ocorreu aumento progressivo no risco para a população de pretos e pardos e na de maior escolaridade. Na maioria dos demais estratos populacionais, verificou-se aumento progressivo no risco de suicídio. Conclusões: a recessão econômica brasileira produziu efeitos diferentes nas taxas de suicídio, considerando os estratos sociais, o que demanda estratégias de saúde e políticas sensíveis às populações mais vulneráveis.

Advances and weaknesses of the work process of the oral cancer care network in Brazil: A latent class transition analysis

OBJECTIVE

To analyse the provision of oral cancer (OC) care services in the Dental Specialties Centers (Centros de Especialidades Odontológicas-CEO) in Brazil and identify changes over two cycles of external evaluation of the Program for the Improvement of Access and Quality-PMAQ, in 2014 and 2018.

METHOD

This is a nationwide panel ecological study, including 916 CEO. Data from interviews with managers and dentists of the CEO were used, including variables related to training on OC, clinical protocols, biopsies, referral for diagnosis and treatment, and registration of users with OC. We carried out Latent Transition Analysis (LTA) to identify patterns (latent status LS) of service adequacy and work processes' changes between the two assessment cycles. We tested models with three, four, and five LS, selecting the one with the best conceptual interpretability and good model fit parameters. Data from the LS were plotted on choropleth and hotspots maps in Brazil allowing us to identify areas with the better or worse provision of specialized OC services.

RESULTS

The model with four LS was chosen. The four LS were named: 1.'Most indicators inadequate for OC care' (the worst); 2. 'Most indicators suitable for OC care' (the best); 3. 'CEO with a poor relation with Primary Health Care (PHC) services'; and 4. 'CEO with a poor relation with tertiary hospital services'. The comparison of the LS transition between the two cycles revealed that 419 (45.7%) CEO remained in the same LS (1→1, 3→4, 2→2); 228 (24.9%) switched to a worse status (2→1, 2→4, 3→1) and 269 (29.4%) switched to a better LS (1→2, 1→4, 3→2). While the majority of the CEO improved, we identified a decline of 17.8% in those who reported performing biopsies and 18.3% in the number of CEO that had hospitals for referring confirmed OC cases. Almost all Brazilian states had CEO that improved the work process. The Southeast and South regions had the highest percentage of CEO with the better work process in both cycles. Hotspots showed areas concentrating improvements in the work process in the Northeast region. However, some hotspots in the North revealed some CEO where the work process deteriorated or remained unsatisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS

There are regional inequities in the provision of OC care in CEO. Most services improved their work process or remained stable. However, the biopsies and the referral to hospital care for confirmed cases declined, indicating that CEO need to improve planning and care provision to reduce OC morbimortality.

Time trends and social inequalities in child malnutrition: nationwide estimates from Brazil's food and nutrition surveillance system, 2009-2017

OBJECTIVE

In Brazil, national estimates of childhood malnutrition have not been updated since 2006. The use of health information systems is an important complementary data source for analysing time trends on health and nutrition. This study aimed to examine temporal trends and socio-demographic inequalities in the prevalence of malnutrition in children attending primary health care services between 2009 and 2017.

DESIGN

Time trends study based on data from Brazil's Food and Nutrition Surveillance System. Malnutrition prevalence (stunting, wasting, overweight and double burden) was annually estimated by socio-demographic variables. Prais-Winsten regression models were used to analyse time trends. Annual percent change (APC) and 95 % CI were calculated.

SETTING

Primary health care services, Brazil.

PARTICIPANTS

Children under 5 years old.

RESULTS

In total, 15,239,753 children were included. An increase in the prevalence of overweight (APC = 3·4 %; P = 0·015) and a decline in the prevalence of wasting (-6·2 %; P = 0·002) were observed. The prevalence of stunting (-3·2 %, P = 0·359) and double burden (-1·4 %, P = 0·630) had discrete and non-significant reductions. Despite the significant reduction in the prevalence of undernutrition among children in the most vulnerable subgroups (black, conditional cash transfer's recipients and residents of poorest and less developed areas), high prevalence of stunting and wasting persist alongside a disproportionate increase in the prevalence of overweight in these groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed pattern in stunting (high and persistent prevalence) and increase in overweight elucidate setbacks in advances already observed in previous periods and stresses the need for social and political strategies to address multiple forms of malnutrition.

Prevalence and factors associated with intimate partner violence against adult women in Brazil: National Survey of Health, 2019

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the prevalence and factors associated with intimate partner violence against adult women in Brazil.

METHODS

Quantitative cross-sectional epidemiological study using the database of the National Survey of Health 2019. The prevalence in the last 12 months and crude and adjusted prevalence ratios of intimate partner violence were calculated, stratified by sociodemographic characteristics.

RESULTS

Intimate partner violence was reported by 7.60% of Brazilian women aged from 18 to 59 years, with higher prevalence among younger women (8.96%), black women (9.05%), those with lower education level (8.55%) and low income (8.68%). After adjusted analysis, the age groups of 18-24 years old (PRadj: 1.41) and 25-39 years old (PRadj: 1.42) and income lower than one minimum wage (PRadj: 1.55) remained associated with intimate partner violence.

CONCLUSIONS

Intimate partner violence was associated with younger and poorest women. This result points to the need to develop intersectoral policies, especially those aimed at reducing social inequalities and at the coping with intimate partner violence among adult women.

Sexual behaviors and condom use in the Brazilian population: analysis of the National Health Survey, 2019

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this research was to describe the sexual behaviors and condom use in the Brazilian population.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional, descriptive study, which used data from 88,531 individuals aged 18 years old or older, who answered the second edition of the National Health Survey carried out in 2019. Prevalence was estimated with the respective 95% confidence intervals for each sexual behavior indicator and condom use according to gender, age, race/skin color, educational level, and region of residence.

RESULTS

The majority of the Brazilian population has had sexual intercourse at some point in their lives (93.9%). Mean age of initiation was 17.3 years. Prevalence of consistent condom use was only 22.8%, being even lower among women (20.9%). Moreover, 59% of the population reported not having used a condom in the past 12 months, the main reason being trusting their partner (73.4%). The use of health services to obtain condoms was only 10.7%. It was observed that women, individuals with a higher age group, less education, and income had worse results in relation to the analyzed indicators, in addition to regional disparities.

CONCLUSION

Low prevalence of condom use was observed in the Brazilian population. In addition, important socioeconomic and demographic disparities were observed, pointing out the need to revisit, strengthen and expand public policies in the sexual and reproductive health field in order to prevent risky sexual behaviors and promote condom use, including double protection.