The allometry of host-pathogen interactions

Multi-scaling allometry in human development, mammalian morphology, and tree growth

Various animal and plant species exhibit allometric relationships among their respective traits, wherein one trait undergoes expansion as a power-law function of another due to constraints acting on growth processes. For instance, the acknowledged consensus posits that tree height scales with the two-thirds power of stem diameter. In the context of human development, it is posited that body weight scales with the second power of height. This prevalent allometric relationship derives its nomenclature from fitting two variables linearly within a logarithmic framework, thus giving rise to the term "power-law relationship." Here, we challenge the conventional assumption that a singular power-law equation adequately encapsulates the allometric relationship between any two traits. We strategically leverage quantile regression analysis to demonstrate that the scaling exponent characterizing this power-law relationship is contingent upon the centile within these traits' distributions. This observation fundamentally underscores the proposition that individuals occupying disparate segments of the distribution may employ distinct growth strategies, as indicated by distinct power-law exponents. We introduce the innovative concept of "multi-scale allometry" to encapsulate this newfound insight. Through a comprehensive reevaluation of (i) the height-weight relationship within a cohort comprising 7, 863, 520 Japanese children aged 5-17 years for which the age, sex, height, and weight were recorded as part of a national study, (ii) the stem-diameter-height and crown-radius-height relationships within an expansive sample of 498, 838 georeferenced and taxonomically standardized records of individual trees spanning diverse geographical locations, and (iii) the brain-size-body-size relationship within an extensive dataset encompassing 1, 552 mammalian species, we resolutely substantiate the viability of multi-scale allometric analysis. This empirical substantiation advocates a paradigm shift from uni-scaling to multi-scaling allometric modeling, thereby affording greater prominence to the inherent growth processes that underlie the morphological diversity evident throughout the living world.

Identifying life-history patterns along the fast-slow continuum of mammalian viral carriers

Life-history traits have been identified as major indicators of mammals' susceptibility and exposure to viruses due to evolutionary constraints that link life-history speed with species' ecology and immunity. Nonetheless, it is unclear where along the fast-slow continuum of mammalian life-history lies the greatest diversity of host species. Consequently, life-history patterns that govern host-virus associations remain largely unknown. Here we analyse the virome of 1350 wild mammals and detect the characteristics that drive species' compatibility with different groups of viruses. We highlight that mammals with larger body size and either very rapid or very slow life histories are more likely to carry different groups of viruses, particularly zoonotic ones. While some common life-history patterns emerge across carriers, eco-evolutionary characteristics of viral groups appear to determine association with certain carrier species. Our findings underline the importance of incorporating both mammals' life-history information and viruses' ecological diversity into surveillance strategies to identify potential zoonotic carriers in wildlife.

Infection burdens and virulence under heat stress: ecological and evolutionary considerations

As a result of global change, hosts and parasites (including pathogens) are experiencing shifts in their thermal environment. Despite the importance of heat stress tolerance for host population persistence, infection by parasites can impair a host's ability to cope with heat. Host-parasite eco-evolutionary dynamics will be affected if infection reduces host performance during heating. Theory predicts that within-host parasite burden (replication rate or number of infecting parasites per host), a key component of parasite fitness, should correlate positively with virulence-the harm caused to hosts during infection. Surprisingly, however, the relationship between within-host parasite burden and virulence during heating is often weak. Here, we describe the current evidence for the link between within-host parasite burden and host heat stress tolerance. We consider the biology of host-parasite systems that may explain the weak or absent link between these two important host and parasite traits during hot conditions. The processes that mediate the relationship between parasite burden and host fitness will be fundamental in ecological and evolutionary responses of host and parasites in a warming world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Leukocyte allometries in birds are not affected by captivity

Body size affects many traits, but often in allometric, or disproportionate ways. For example, large avian and mammalian species circulate far more of some immune cells than expected for their size based on simple geometric principles. To date, such hypermetric immune scaling has mostly been described in zoo-dwelling individuals, so it remains obscure whether immune hyper-allometries have any natural relevance. Here, we asked whether granulocyte and lymphocyte allometries in wild birds differ from those described in captive species. Our previous allometric studies of avian immune cell concentrations were performed on animals kept for their lifetimes in captivity where conditions are benign and fairly consistent. In natural conditions, infection, stress, nutrition, climate, and myriad other forces could alter immune traits and hence mask any interspecific scaling relationships between immune cells and body size. Counter to this expectation, we found no evidence that immune cell allometries differed between captive and wild species, although we had to rely on cell proportion data, as insufficient concentration data were available for wild species. Our results indicate that even in variable and challenging natural contexts, immune allometries endure and might affect disease ecology and evolution.

Patterns of virus growth across the diversity of life

Although viruses in their natural habitats add up to less than 10% of the biomass, they contribute more than 90% of the genome sequences [1]. These viral sequences or 'viromes' encode viruses that populate the Earth's oceans [2, 3] and terrestrial environments [4, 5], where their infections impact life across diverse ecological niches and scales [6, 7], including humans [8-10]. Most viruses have yet to be isolated and cultured [11-13], and surprisingly few efforts have explored what analysis of available data might reveal about their nature. Here, we compiled and analyzed seven decades of one-step growth and other data for viruses from six major families, including their infections of archaeal, bacterial and eukaryotic hosts [14-191]. We found that the use of host cell biomass for virus production was highest for archaea at 10%, followed by bacteria at 1% and eukarya at 0.01%, highlighting the degree to which viruses of archaea and bacteria exploit their host cells. For individual host cells, the yield of virus progeny spanned a relatively narrow range (10-1000 infectious particles per cell) compared with the million-fold difference in size between the smallest and largest cells. Furthermore, healthy and infected host cells were remarkably similar in the time they needed to multiply themselves or their virus progeny. Specifically, the doubling time of healthy cells and the delay time for virus release from infected cells were not only correlated (r = 0.71, p < 10-10, n = 101); they also spanned the same range from tens of minutes to about a week. These results have implications for better understanding the growth, spread and persistence of viruses in complex natural habitats that abound with diverse hosts, including humans and their associated microbes.

Fast-lived Hosts and Zoonotic Risk

Because most emerging human pathogens originate in mammals, many studies aim to identify host traits that determine the risk of sourcing zoonotic outbreaks. Studies regularly assert that 'fast-lived' mammal species exhibiting greater fecundity and shorter lifespans tend to host more zoonoses; however, the causes of this association remain poorly understood and they cover a range of immune and nonimmune mechanisms. We discuss these drivers in the context of evolutionary ecology and wildlife-human interactions. Ultimately, differentiating these mechanisms will require linking interspecific variation in life history with immunity, pathogen diversity, transmissibility, and zoonotic risk, and critical data gaps currently limit our ability to do so. We highlight sampling and analytical frameworks to address this gap and to better inform zoonotic reservoir prediction.

The impacts of body mass on immune cell concentrations in birds

Body mass affects many biological traits, but its impacts on immune defences are fairly unknown. Recent research on mammals found that neutrophil concentrations disproportionately increased (scaled hypermetrically) with body mass, a result not predicted by any existing theory. Although the scaling relationship for mammals might predict how leucocyte concentrations scale with body mass in other vertebrates, vertebrate classes are distinct in many ways that might affect their current and historic interactions with parasites and hence the evolution of their immune systems. Subsequently, here, we asked which existing scaling hypothesis best-predicts relationships between body mass and lymphocyte, eosinophil and heterophil concentrations-the avian functional equivalent of neutrophils-among more than 100 species of birds. We then examined the predictive power of body mass relative to life-history variation, as extensive literature indicates that the timing of key life events has influenced immune system variation among species. Finally, we ask whether avian scaling patterns differ from the patterns we observed in mammals. We found that an intercept-only model best explained lymphocyte and eosinophil concentrations among birds, indicating that the concentrations of these cell types were both independent of body mass. For heterophils, however, body mass explained 31% of the variation in concentrations among species, much more than life-history variation (4%). As with mammalian neutrophils, avian heterophils scaled hypermetrically (b = 0.19 ± 0.05), but more steeply than mammals (approx. 1.5 ×; 0.11 ± 0.03). As such, we discuss why birds might require more broadly protective cells compared to mammals of the same body size. Overall, body mass appears to have strong influences on the architecture of immune systems.

The uneasy coexistence of predators and pathogens

Disease and predation are both highly important in ecology, and pathogens with multiple host species have turned out to be common. Nonetheless, the interplay between multi-host epidemics and predation has received relatively little attention. Here, we analyse a model of a predator-prey system with disease in both prey and predator populations and determine reasonable parameter values using allometric mass scaling relations. Our analysis focuses on the possibility of extinction events rather than the linear stability of the model equations, and we derive approximate relations for the parameter values at which we expect these events to occur. We find that if the predator is a specialist, epidemics frequently drive the predator species to extinction. If the predator has an additional, immune prey species, predators will usually survive. Coexistence of predator and disease is impossible in the single-prey model. We conclude that for the prey species, carrying a pathogen can be an effective weapon against predators, and that being a generalist is a major advantage for a predator in the event of an epidemic affecting the prey or both species.

Integrating data mining and transmission theory in the ecology of infectious diseases

Our understanding of ecological processes is built on patterns inferred from data. Applying modern analytical tools such as machine learning to increasingly high dimensional data offers the potential to expand our perspectives on these processes, shedding new light on complex ecological phenomena such as pathogen transmission in wild populations. Here, we propose a novel approach that combines data mining with theoretical models of disease dynamics. Using rodents as an example, we incorporate statistical differences in the life history features of zoonotic reservoir hosts into pathogen transmission models, enabling us to bound the range of dynamical phenomena associated with hosts, based on their traits. We then test for associations between equilibrium prevalence, a key epidemiological metric and data on human outbreaks of rodent-borne zoonoses, identifying matches between empirical evidence and theoretical predictions of transmission dynamics. We show how this framework can be generalized to other systems through a rubric of disease models and parameters that can be derived from empirical data. By linking life history components directly to their effects on disease dynamics, our mining-modelling approach integrates machine learning and theoretical models to explore mechanisms in the macroecology of pathogen transmission and their consequences for spillover infection to humans.

Chaos in disease outbreaks among prey

Epidemics are highly unpredictable, and so are real-world population dynamics. In this paper, we examine a dynamical model of an ecosystem with one predator and two prey species of which one carries a disease. We find that the system behaves chaotically for a wide range of parameters. Using the allometric mass scaling of animal and disease lifetimes, we predict chaos if (a) the disease is infectious enough to persist, and (b) it affects the larger prey species. This provides another example of chaos in a Lotka-Volterra system and a possible explanation for the apparent randomness of epizootic outbreaks.

Metabolic theory of ecology successfully predicts distinct scaling of ectoparasite load on hosts

The impacts of parasites on hosts and the role that parasites play in ecosystems must be underlain by the load of parasites in individual hosts. To help explain and predict parasite load across a broad range of species, quantitative theory has been developed based on fundamental relationships between organism size, temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we elaborate on an aspect of that 'scaling theory for parasitism', and test a previously unexplored prediction, using new data for total ectoparasite load from 263 wild birds of 42 species. We reveal that, despite the expected substantial variation in parasite load among individual hosts, (i) the theory successfully predicts the distinct increase of ectoparasite load with host body size, indicating the importance of geometric scaling constraints on access to host resources, (ii) ectoparasite load appears ultimately limited by access-not to host space-but to host energy, and (iii) there is a currency-dependent shift in taxonomic dominance of parasite load on larger birds. Hence, these results reveal a seemingly new macroecological pattern, underscore the utility of energy flux as a currency for parasitism and highlight the promise of using scaling theory to provide baseline expectations for parasite load for a diversity of host species.

Host phylogenetic distance drives trends in virus virulence and transmissibility across the animal-human interface

Historically, efforts to assess 'zoonotic risk' have focused mainly on quantifying the potential for cross-species emergence of viruses from animal hosts. However, viruses clearly differ in relative burden, both in terms of morbidity and mortality (virulence) incurred and the capacity for sustained human-to-human transmission. Extending previously published databases, we delineated host and viral traits predictive of human mortality associated with viral spillover, viral capacity to transmit between humans following spillover and the probability of a given virus being zoonotic. We demonstrate that increasing host phylogenetic distance from humans positively correlates with human mortality but negatively correlates with human transmissibility, suggesting that the virulence induced by viruses emerging from hosts at high phylogenetic distance may limit capacity for human transmission. Our key result is that hosts most closely related to humans harbour zoonoses of lower impact in terms of morbidity and mortality, while the most distantly related hosts-in particular, order Chiroptera (bats)-harbour highly virulent zoonoses with a lower capacity for endemic establishment in human hosts. As a whole, our results emphasize the importance of understanding how zoonoses manifest in the human population and also highlight potential risks associated with multi-host transmission chains in spillover. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Deciphering the effect of food availability, growth and host condition on disease susceptibility in a marine invertebrate

Food provisioning influences disease risk and outcome in animal populations in two ways. On the one hand, unrestricted food supply improves the physiological condition of the host and lowers its susceptibility to infectious disease, reflecting a trade-off between immunity and other fitness-related functions. On the other hand, food scarcity limits the resources available to the pathogen and slows the growth and metabolism of the host on which the pathogen depends to proliferate. Here, we investigated how food availability, growth rate and energetic reserves drive the outcome of a viral disease affecting an ecologically relevant model host, the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas We selected fast- and slow-growing animals, and we exposed them to high and low food rations. We evaluated their energetic reserves, challenged them with a pathogenic virus, monitored daily survival and developed a mortality risk model. Although high food levels and oyster growth were associated with a higher risk of mortality, energy reserves were associated with a lower risk. Food availability acts both as an enabling factor for mortality by increasing oyster growth and as a limiting factor by increasing their energy reserves. This study clarifies how food resources have an impact on susceptibility to disease and indicates how the host's physiological condition could mitigate epidemics. Practically, we suggest that growth should be optimized rather than maximized, considering that trade-offs occur with disease resistance or tolerance.

Applying allometric scaling to predator-prey systems

In population dynamics, mathematical models often contain too many parameters to be easily testable. A way to reliably estimate parameters for a broad range of systems would help us obtain clearer predictions from theory. In this paper, we examine how the allometric scaling of a number of biological quantities with animal mass may be useful to parameterize population dynamical models. Using this allometric scaling, we make predictions about the ratio of prey to predators in real ecosystems, and we attempt to estimate the length of animal population cycles as a function of mass. Our analytical and numerical results turn out to compare reasonably to data from a number of ecosystems. This paves the way for a wider usage of allometric scaling to simplify mathematical models in population dynamics and make testable predictions.

Virulence of Melissococcus plutonius and secondary invaders associated with European foulbrood disease of the honey bee

European foulbrood is a globally distributed brood disease affecting honey bees. It may lead to lethal infections of larvae and, in severe cases, even to colony collapse. Lately, a profound genetic and phenotypic diversity was documented for the causative agent Melissococcus plutonius. However, experimental work on the impact of diverse M. plutonius strains on hosts with different genetic background is completely lacking and the role of secondary invaders is poorly understood. Here, we address these issues and elucidate the impact and interaction of both host and pathogen on one another. Moreover, we try to unravel the role of secondary bacterial invasions in foulbrood‐diseased larvae. We employed in vitro infections with honey bee larvae from queens with different genetic background and three different M. plutonius strains. Larvae infection experiments showed host‐dependent survival dynamics although M. plutonius strain 49.3 consistently had the highest virulence. This pattern was also reflected in significantly reduced weights of 49.3 strain‐infected larvae compared to the other treatments. No difference was found in groups additionally inoculated with a secondary invader (Enterococcus faecalis or Paenibacillus alvei) neither in terms of larval survival nor weight. These results suggest that host background contributes markedly to the course of the disease but virulence is mainly dependent on pathogen genotype. Secondary invaders following a M. plutonius infection do not increase disease lethality and therefore may just be a colonization of weakened and immunodeficient, or dead larvae.

Null expectations for disease dynamics in shrinking habitat: dilution or amplification?

As biodiversity declines with anthropogenic land-use change, it is increasingly important to understand how changing biodiversity affects infectious disease risk. The dilution effect hypothesis, which points to decreases in biodiversity as critical to an increase in infection risk, has received considerable attention due to the allure of a win-win scenario for conservation and human well-being. Yet some empirical data suggest that the dilution effect is not a generalizable phenomenon. We explore the response of pathogen transmission dynamics to changes in biodiversity that are driven by habitat loss using an allometrically scaled multi-host model. With this model, we show that declining habitat, and thus declining biodiversity, can lead to either increasing or decreasing infectious-disease risk, measured as endemic prevalence. Whether larger habitats, and thus greater biodiversity, lead to a decrease (dilution effect) or increase (amplification effect) in infection prevalence depends upon the pathogen transmission mode and how host competence scales with body size. Dilution effects were detected for most frequency-transmitted pathogens and amplification effects were detected for density-dependent pathogens. Amplification effects were also observed over a particular range of habitat loss in frequency-dependent pathogens when we assumed that host competence was greatest in large-bodied species. By contrast, only amplification effects were observed for density-dependent pathogens; host competency only affected the magnitude of the effect. These models can be used to guide future empirical studies of biodiversity-disease relationships across gradients of habitat loss. The type of transmission, the relationship between host competence and community assembly, the identity of hosts contributing to transmission, and how transmission scales with area are essential factors to consider when elucidating the mechanisms driving disease risk in shrinking habitat.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Behavioural phenotypes predict disease susceptibility and infectiousness

Behavioural phenotypes may provide a means for identifying individuals that disproportionally contribute to disease spread and epizootic outbreaks. For example, bolder phenotypes may experience greater exposure and susceptibility to pathogenic infection because of distinct interactions with conspecifics and their environment. We tested the value of behavioural phenotypes in larval amphibians for predicting ranavirus transmission in experimental trials. We found that behavioural phenotypes characterized by latency-to-food and swimming profiles were predictive of disease susceptibility and infectiousness defined as the capacity of an infected host to transmit an infection by contacts. While viral shedding rates were positively associated with transmission, we also found an inverse relationship between contacts and infections. Together these results suggest intrinsic traits that influence behaviour and the quantity of pathogens shed during conspecific interactions may be an important contributor to ranavirus transmission. These results suggest that behavioural phenotypes provide a means to identify individuals more likely to spread disease and thus give insights into disease outbreaks that threaten wildlife and humans.

Modelling the effects of phylogeny and body size on within-host pathogen replication and immune response

Understanding how quickly pathogens replicate and how quickly the immune system responds is important for predicting the epidemic spread of emerging pathogens. Host body size, through its correlation with metabolic rates, is theoretically predicted to impact pathogen replication rates and immune system response rates. Here, we use mathematical models of viral time courses from multiple species of birds infected by a generalist pathogen (West Nile Virus; WNV) to test more thoroughly how disease progression and immune response depend on mass and host phylogeny. We use hierarchical Bayesian models coupled with nonlinear dynamical models of disease dynamics to incorporate the hierarchical nature of host phylogeny. Our analysis suggests an important role for both host phylogeny and species mass in determining factors important for viral spread such as the basic reproductive number, WNV production rate, peak viraemia in blood and competency of a host to infect mosquitoes. Our model is based on a principled analysis and gives a quantitative prediction for key epidemiological determinants and how they vary with species mass and phylogeny. This leads to new hypotheses about the mechanisms that cause certain taxonomic groups to have higher viraemia. For example, our models suggest that higher viral burst sizes cause corvids to have higher levels of viraemia and that the cellular rate of virus production is lower in larger species. We derive a metric of competency of a host to infect disease vectors and thereby sustain the disease between hosts. This suggests that smaller passerine species are highly competent at spreading the disease compared with larger non-passerine species. Our models lend mechanistic insight into why some species (smaller passerine species) are pathogen reservoirs and some (larger non-passerine species) are potentially dead-end hosts for WNV. Our techniques give insights into the role of body mass and host phylogeny in the spread of WNV and potentially other zoonotic diseases. The major contribution of this work is a computational framework for infectious disease modelling at the within-host level that leverages data from multiple species. This is likely to be of interest to modellers of infectious diseases that jump species barriers and infect multiple species. Our method can be used to computationally determine the competency of a host to infect mosquitoes that will sustain WNV and other zoonotic diseases. We find that smaller passerine species are more competent in spreading the disease than larger non-passerine species. This suggests the role of host phylogeny as an important determinant of within-host pathogen replication. Ultimately, we view our work as an important step in linking within-host viral dynamics models to between-host models that determine spread of infectious disease between different hosts.

Body size and meta-community structure: the allometric scaling of parasitic worm communities in their mammalian hosts

In this paper we derive from first principles the expected body sizes of the parasite communities that can coexist in a mammal of given body size. We use a mixture of mathematical models and known allometric relationships to examine whether host and parasite life histories constrain the diversity of parasite species that can coexist in the population of any host species. The model consists of one differential equation for each parasite species and a single density-dependent nonlinear equation for the affected host under the assumption of exploitation competition. We derive threshold conditions for the coexistence and competitive exclusion of parasite species using invasion criteria and stability analysis of the resulting equilibria. These results are then used to evaluate the range of parasites species that can invade and establish in a target host and identify the 'optimal' size of a parasite species for a host of a given body size; 'optimal' is defined as the body size of a parasite species that cannot be outcompeted by any other parasite species. The expected distributions of parasites body sizes in hosts of different sizes are then compared with those observed in empirical studies. Our analysis predicts the relative abundance of parasites of different size that establish in the host and suggests that increasing the ratio of parasite body size to host body size above a minimum threshold increases the persistence of the parasite population.

Viral pathogen production in a wild grass host driven by host growth and soil nitrogen

Nutrient limitation is a basic ecological constraint that has received little attention in studies on virus production and disease dynamics. Nutrient availability could directly limit the production of viral nucleic acids and proteins, or alternatively limit host growth and thus indirectly limit metabolic pathways necessary for viral replication. In order to compare direct and indirect effects of nutrient limitation on virus production within hosts, we manipulated soil nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) availability in a glasshouse for the wild grass host Bromus hordeaceus and the viral pathogen Barley yellow dwarf virus-PAV. We found that soil N additions increased viral concentrations within host tissues, and the effect was mediated by host growth. Specifically, in statistical models evaluating the roles of host biomass production, leaf N and leaf P, viral production depended most strongly on host biomass, rather than the concentration of either nutrient. Furthermore, at low soil N, larger plants supported greater viral concentrations than smaller ones, whereas at high N, smaller plants supported greater viral concentrations. Our results suggest that enhanced viral productivity under N enrichment is an indirect consequence of nutrient stimulation to host growth rate. Heightened pathogen production in plants has important implications for a world facing increasing rates of nutrient deposition.

Resources, mortality, and disease ecology: Importance of positive feedbacks between host growth rate and pathogen dynamics

Resource theory and metabolic scaling theory suggest that the dynamics of a pathogen within a host should strongly depend upon the rate of host cell metabolism. Once an infection occurs, key ecological interactions occur on or within the host organism that determine whether the pathogen dies out, persists as a chronic infection, or grows to densities that lead to host death. We hypothesize that, in general, conditions favoring rapid host growth rates should amplify the replication and proliferation of both fungal and viral pathogens. If a host population experiences an increase in mortality, to persist it must have a higher growth rate, per host, often reflecting greater resource availability per capita. We hypothesize that this could indirectly foster the pathogen, which also benefits from increased within-host resource turnover. We first bring together in a short review a number of key prior studies which illustrate resource effects on viral and fungal pathogen dynamics. We then report new results from a semi-continuous cell culture experiment with SHIV, demonstrating that higher mortality rates indeed can promote viral proliferation. We develop a simple model that illustrates dynamical consequences of these resource effects, including interesting effects such as alternative stable states and oscillatory dynamics. Our paper contributes to a growing body of literature at the interface of ecology and infectious disease epidemiology, emphasizing that host abundances alone do not drive community dynamics: the physiological state and resource content of infected hosts also strongly influence host-pathogen interactions.

Infectious disease transmission and behavioural allometry in wild mammals

Animals' social and movement behaviours can impact the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, especially for pathogens transmitted through close contact between hosts or through contact with infectious stages in the environment. Estimating pathogen transmission rates and R0 from natural systems can be challenging. Because host behavioural traits that underlie the transmission process vary predictably with body size, one of the best-studied traits among animals, body size might therefore also predict variation in parasite transmission dynamics. Here, we examine how two host behaviours, social group living and the intensity of habitat use, scale allometrically using comparative data from wild primate, carnivore and ungulate species. We use these empirical relationships to parameterize classical compartment models for infectious micro- and macroparasitic diseases, and examine how the risk of pathogen invasion changes as a function of host behaviour and body size. We then test model predictions using comparative data on parasite prevalence and richness from wild mammals. We report a general pattern suggesting that smaller-bodied mammal species utilizing home ranges more intensively experience greater risk for invasion by environmentally transmitted macroparasites. Conversely, larger-bodied hosts exhibiting a high degree of social group living could be more readily invaded by directly transmitted microparasites. These trends were supported through comparison of micro- and macroparasite species richness across a large number of carnivore, primate and ungulate species, but empirical data on carnivore macroparasite prevalence showed mixed results. Collectively, our study demonstrates that combining host behavioural traits with dynamical models of infectious disease scaled against host body size can generate testable predictions for variation in parasite risk across species; a similar approach might be useful in future work focused on predicting parasite distributions in local host communities.

Interactions between social structure, demography, and transmission determine disease persistence in primates

Catastrophic declines in African great ape populations due to disease outbreaks have been reported in recent years, yet we rarely hear of similar disease impacts for the more solitary Asian great apes, or for smaller primates. We used an age-structured model of different primate social systems to illustrate that interactions between social structure and demography create 'dynamic constraints' on the pathogens that can establish and persist in primate host species with different social systems. We showed that this varies by disease transmission mode. Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) require high rates of transmissibility to persist within a primate population. In particular, for a unimale social system, STIs require extremely high rates of transmissibility for persistence, and remain at extremely low prevalence in small primates, but this is less constrained in longer-lived, larger-bodied primates. In contrast, aerosol transmitted infections (ATIs) spread and persist at high prevalence in medium and large primates with moderate transmissibility;, establishment and persistence in small-bodied primates require higher relative rates of transmissibility. Intragroup contact structure - the social network - creates different constraints for different transmission modes, and our model underscores the importance of intragroup contacts on infection prior to intergroup movement in a structured population. When alpha males dominate sexual encounters, the resulting disease transmission dynamics differ from when social interactions are dominated by mother-infant grooming events, for example. This has important repercussions for pathogen spread across populations. Our framework reveals essential social and demographic characteristics of primates that predispose them to different disease risks that will be important for disease management and conservation planning for protected primate populations.

Quantifying T lymphocyte turnover

Peripheral T cell populations are maintained by production of naive T cells in the thymus, clonal expansion of activated cells, cellular self-renewal (or homeostatic proliferation), and density dependent cell life spans. A variety of experimental techniques have been employed to quantify the relative contributions of these processes. In modern studies lymphocytes are typically labeled with 5-bromo-2'-deoxyuridine (BrdU), deuterium, or the fluorescent dye carboxy-fluorescein diacetate succinimidyl ester (CFSE), their division history has been studied by monitoring telomere shortening and the dilution of T cell receptor excision circles (TRECs) or the dye CFSE, and clonal expansion has been documented by recording changes in the population densities of antigen specific cells. Proper interpretation of such data in terms of the underlying rates of T cell production, division, and death has proven to be notoriously difficult and involves mathematical modeling. We review the various models that have been developed for each of these techniques, discuss which models seem most appropriate for what type of data, reveal open problems that require better models, and pinpoint how the assumptions underlying a mathematical model may influence the interpretation of data. Elaborating various successful cases where modeling has delivered new insights in T cell population dynamics, this review provides quantitative estimates of several processes involved in the maintenance of naive and memory, CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell pools in mice and men.

Linking the antigen archive structure to pathogen fitness in African trypanosomes

Systems that generate antigenic variation enable pathogens to evade host immune responses and are intricately interwoven with major pathogen traits, such as host choice, growth, virulence and transmission. Although much is understood about antigen switching at the molecular level, little is known about the cross-scale links between these molecular processes and the larger-scale within and between host population dynamics that they must ultimately drive. Inspired by the antigenic variation system of African trypanosomes, we apply modelling approaches to our expanding understanding of the organization and expression of antigen repertoires, and explore links across these scales. We predict how pathogen population processes are determined by underlying molecular genetics and infer resulting selective pressures on important emergent repertoire traits.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.

Developmental allometry and paediatric malaria

WHO estimates that 80% of mortality due to malaria occurs among infants and young children. Though it has long been established that malaria disproportionately affects children under age five, our understanding of the underlying biological mechanisms for this distribution remains incomplete. Many studies use age as an indicator of exposure, but age may affect malaria burden independently of previous exposure. Not only does the severity of malaria infection change with age, but the clinical manifestation of disease does as well: younger children are more likely to suffer severe anaemia, while older children are more likely to develop cerebral malaria. Intensity of transmission and acquired immunity are important determinants of this age variation, but age differences remain consistent over varying transmission levels. Thus, age differences in clinical presentation may involve inherent age-related factors as well as still-undiscovered facets of acquired immunity, perhaps including the rates at which relevant aspects of immunity are acquired. The concept of "allometry" - the relative growth of a part in relation to that of an entire organism or to a standard - has not previously been applied in the context of malaria infection. However, because malaria affects a number of organs and cells, including the liver, red blood cells, white blood cells, and spleen, which may intrinsically develop at rates partly independent of each other and of a child's overall size, developmental allometry may influence the course and consequences of malaria infection. Here, scattered items of evidence have been collected from a variety of disciplines, aiming to suggest possible research paths for investigating exposure-independent age differences affecting clinical outcomes of malaria infection.

Persistence of canine distemper virus in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem's carnivore community

Canine distemper virus (CDV) is an acute, highly immunizing pathogen that should require high densities and large populations of hosts for long-term persistence, yet CDV persists among terrestrial carnivores with small, patchily distributed groups. We used CDV in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem's (GYE) wolves (Canis lupus) and coyotes (Canis latrans) as a case study for exploring how metapopulation structure, host demographics, and multi-host transmission affect the critical community size and spatial scale required for CDV persistence. We illustrate how host spatial connectivity and demographic turnover interact to affect both local epidemic dynamics, such as the length and variation in inter-epidemic periods, and pathogen persistence using stochastic, spatially explicit susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered simulation models. Given the apparent absence of other known persistence mechanisms (e.g., a carrier or environmental state, densely populated host, chronic infection, or a vector), we suggest that CDV requires either large spatial scales or multi-host transmission for persistence. Current GYE wolf populations are probably too small to support endemic CDV. Coyotes are a plausible reservoir host, but CDV would still require 50000-100000 individuals for moderate persistence (> 50% over 10 years), which would equate to an area of 1-3 times the size of the GYE (60000-200000 km2). Coyotes, and carnivores in general, are not uniformly distributed; therefore, this is probably a gross underestimate of the spatial scale of CDV persistence. However, the presence of a second competent host species can greatly increase the probability of long-term CDV persistence at much smaller spatial scales. Although no management of CDV is currently recommended for the GYE, wolf managers in the region should expect periodic but unpredictable CDV-related population declines as often as every 2-5 years. Awareness and monitoring of such outbreaks will allow corresponding adjustments in management activities such as regulated public harvest, creating a smooth transition to state wolf management and conservation after > 30 years of being protected by the Endangered Species Act.

Scaling aspects of lymphocyte trafficking

We consider the long lived pool of B and T cells that recirculate through blood, tissues and the lymphatic system of an animal with body mass M. We derive scaling rules (allometric relations) for: (1) the rate of production of mature lymphocytes, (2) the accumulation of lymphocytes in the tissues, (3) the flux of lymphocytes through the lymphatic system, (4) the number of lymph nodes, (5) the number of lymphocytes per clone within a lymph node, and (6) the total number of lymphocytes within a lymph node. Mass-dependent aspects of immune learning and of the immunological self are shown to be not very significant. Our treatment is somewhat heuristic and aims at combining immunological data with recent progress in biological scaling.