Increased avian diversity is associated with lower incidence of human West Nile infection: observation of the dilution effect

Lower Bird Evenness and Diversity Are Associated With Higher Usutu Prevalence in Culex pipiens Mosquitoes

INTRODUCTION

The mosquito-transmitted Usutu virus has spread in the last few years, becoming endemic in several areas of Europe, such as in the southern French region of the Camargue. Our aim was to study the relationships between the presence of the viral agent in Culex mosquitoes and the structure of bird communities in the context of the dilution effect.

METHODS

We carried out mosquito and bird censuses in several selected localities across a land-use gradient and screened mosquito pools for flaviviruses. We focused on exploring how host bird diversity, richness, abundance and evenness were associated with Usutu detection in Cx. pipiens.

RESULTS

Usutu virus was detected in seven pools of Cx. pipiens, and phylogenetic analysis identified Usutu lineage Africa 3, confirming its circulation. The probability of detection in mosquitoes is associated with areas with lower bird evenness and diversity but higher bird abundance and richness and higher Cx. pipiens abundances.

CONCLUSIONS

Bird evenness was the variable with the greatest explanatory power, being negatively related to the probability of detecting Usutu in Cx. pipiens, supporting a dilution effect. These results will help us better understand the relationships between bird community structure and the risk of Usutu mosquito-borne disease.

The Spread of the Mosquito-Transmitted West Nile Virus in North America and Europe

West Nile virus (WNV) disease, a mosquito-transmitted Flavivirus infection, represents a substantial public health research interest. This virus was unknown in the Western hemisphere until it was introduced in 1999 into an immunologically naïve population. WNV caused an epizootic and epidemic in New York City. The infection then swept over North America, causing mass mortality in birds and cumulatively 60,000 human cases, half of whom were hospitalised, mostly with neurological symptoms. The virus closely resembled a goose virus isolated in Israel in 1998. Mosquitoes of the genus Culex were identified as the insect viral vectors. WNV can infect more than 300 bird species, but in the US, the American robin (Turdus migratorius) represented the ecologically most important bird viral reservoir. Mosquito-to-mosquito viral transmission might amplify the viral spread, and iatrogenic WNV transmission was also observed, leading to the screening of blood products. Compared with African WNV isolates, the New York WNV isolate NY99 showed a mutation in the nonstructural protein NS3 that increased its virulence in birds and was also observed in WNV outbreaks from Romania in 1996 and from Russia in 1999. During its spread across the US, NY99 acquired a mutation in the envelope gene E that favoured viral infection in the insect vector. Europe reported 1200 annual WNV cases in 2024, with a focus in Mediterranean countries, but a northward spread of the infection to Germany and The Netherlands was also noted. Global warming is likely to affect the geographical distribution of vector-borne infections such that people living in temperate climate areas might be increasingly exposed to these infections. Therefore, research on temperature effects on WNV transmission by Culex mosquitoes has become a recent focus of research. Pertinent climate aspects of WNV infections are retraced in the present review.

Usutu virus, an emerging arbovirus with One Health importance

Usutu virus (USUV, Flaviviridae) is an emerging arbovirus that has led to epizootic outbreaks in birds and numerous human neuroinvasive disease cases in Europe. It is maintained in an enzootic cycle with Culex mosquitoes and passerine birds, a transmission cycle that is shared by West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV), two flaviviruses that are endemic in the United States. USUV and WNV co-circulate in Africa and Europe, and SLEV and WNV co-circulate in North America. These three viruses are prime examples of One Health issues, in which the interactions between humans, animals, and the environments they reside in can have important health impacts. The three facets of One Health are interwoven throughout this article as we discuss the mechanisms of flavivirus transmission and emergence. We explore the possibility of USUV emergence in the United States by analyzing the shared characteristics among USUV, WNV, and SLEV, including the role that flavivirus co-infections and sequential exposures may play in viral emergence. Finally, we provide insights on the importance of integrated surveillance programs as One Health tools that can be used to mitigate USUV emergence and spread.

Effect of epidemic diseases on wild animal conservation

Under the background of global species extinction, the impact of epidemic diseases on wild animal protection is increasingly prominent. Here, we review and synthesize the literature on this topic, and discuss the relationship between diseases and biodiversity. Diseases usually reduce species diversity by decreasing or extinction of species populations, but also accelerate species evolution and promote species diversity. At the same time, species diversity can regulate disease outbreaks through dilution or amplification effects. The synergistic effect of human activities and global change is emphasized, which further aggravates the complex relationship between biodiversity and diseases. Finally, we emphasize the importance of active surveillance of wild animal diseases, which can protect wild animals from potential diseases, maintain population size and genetic variation, and reduce the damage of diseases to the balance of the whole ecosystem and human health. Therefore, we suggest that a background survey of wild animal populations and their pathogens should be carried out to assess the impact of potential outbreaks on the population or species level. The mechanism of dilution and amplification effect between species diversity and diseases of wild animals should be further studied to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for human intervention measures to change biodiversity. Most importantly, we should closely combine the protection of wild animals with the establishment of an active surveillance, prevention, and control system for wild animal epidemics, in an effort to achieve a win-win situation between wild animal protection and disease control.

Mosquito community composition shapes virus prevalence patterns along anthropogenic disturbance gradients

Previously unknown pathogens often emerge from primary ecosystems, but there is little knowledge on the mechanisms of emergence. Most studies analyzing the influence of land-use change on pathogen emergence focus on a single host-pathogen system and often observe contradictory effects. Here, we studied virus diversity and prevalence patterns in natural and disturbed ecosystems using a multi-host and multi-taxa approach. Mosquitoes sampled along a disturbance gradient in Côte d'Ivoire were tested by generic RT-PCR assays established for all major arbovirus and insect-specific virus taxa including novel viruses previously discovered in these samples based on cell culture isolates enabling an unbiased and comprehensive approach. The taxonomic composition of detected viruses was characterized and viral infection rates according to habitat and host were analyzed. We detected 331 viral sequences pertaining to 34 novel and 15 previously identified viruses of the families Flavi-, Rhabdo-, Reo-, Toga-, Mesoni- and Iflaviridae and the order Bunyavirales. Highest host and virus diversity was observed in pristine and intermediately disturbed habitats. The majority of the 49 viruses was detected with low prevalence. However, nine viruses were found frequently across different habitats of which five viruses increased in prevalence towards disturbed habitats, in congruence with the dilution effect hypothesis. These viruses were mainly associated with one specific mosquito species (Culex nebulosus), which increased in relative abundance from pristine (3%) to disturbed habitats (38%). Interestingly, the observed increased prevalence of these five viruses in disturbed habitats was not caused by higher host infection rates but by increased host abundance, an effect tentatively named abundance effect. Our data show that host species composition is critical for virus abundance. Environmental changes that lead to an uneven host community composition and to more individuals of a single species are a key driver of virus emergence.

Environmental Change, Changing Biodiversity, and Infections-Lessons for Kidney Health Community

There is a direct and accelerating connection between ongoing environmental change, the unprecedented decline in biodiversity, and the increase in infectious disease epidemiology worldwide. Rising global temperatures are threatening the biodiversity that underpins the richness and diversity of flora and fauna species in our ecosystem. Anthropogenic activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, rapid urbanization, and expanding population are the primary drivers of environmental change resulting in biodiversity collapse. Climate change is influencing the emergence, prevalence, and transmission of infectious diseases both directly and through its impact on biodiversity. The environment is gradually becoming more suitable for infectious diseases by affecting a variety of pathogens, hosts, and vectors and by favoring transmission rates in many parts of the world that were until recently free of these infections. The acute effects of these zoonotic, vector and waterborne diseases are well known; however, evidence is emerging about their role in the development of chronic kidney disease. The pathways linking environmental change and biodiversity loss to infections impacting kidney health are diverse and complex. Climate change and biodiversity loss disproportionately affect the vulnerable and limit their ability to access healthcare. The kidney health community needs to contribute to the issue of environmental change and biodiversity loss through multisectoral action alongside government, policymakers, advocates, businesses, and the general population. We describe various aspects of the environmental change effects on the transmission and emergence of infectious diseases particularly focusing on its potential impact on kidney health. We also discuss the adaptive and mitigation measures and the gaps in research and policy action.

Malaria Risk Drivers in the Brazilian Amazon: Land Use-Land Cover Interactions and Biological Diversity

Malaria is a prevalent disease in several tropical and subtropical regions, including Brazil, where it remains a significant public health concern. Even though there have been substantial efforts to decrease the number of cases, the reoccurrence of epidemics in regions that have been free of cases for many years presents a significant challenge. Due to the multifaceted factors that influence the spread of malaria, influencing malaria risk factors were analyzed through regional outbreak cluster analysis and spatio-temporal models in the Brazilian Amazon, incorporating climate, land use/cover interactions, species richness, and number of endemic birds and amphibians. Results showed that high amphibian and bird richness and endemism correlated with a reduction in malaria risk. The presence of forest had a risk-increasing effect, but it depended on its juxtaposition with anthropic land uses. Biodiversity and landscape composition, rather than forest formation presence alone, modulated malaria risk in the period. Areas with low endemic species diversity and high human activity, predominantly anthropogenic landscapes, posed high malaria risk. This study underscores the importance of considering the broader ecological context in malaria control efforts.

Comparison of West Nile Virus Disease in Humans and Horses: Exploiting Similarities for Enhancing Syndromic Surveillance

West Nile virus (WNV) neuroinvasive disease threatens the health and well-being of horses and humans worldwide. Disease in horses and humans is remarkably similar. The occurrence of WNV disease in these mammalian hosts has geographic overlap with shared macroscale and microscale drivers of risk. Importantly, intrahost virus dynamics, the evolution of the antibody response, and clinicopathology are similar. The goal of this review is to provide a comparison of WNV infection in humans and horses and to identify similarities that can be exploited to enhance surveillance methods for the early detection of WNV neuroinvasive disease.

Analysis of trapped mosquito excreta as a noninvasive method to reveal biodiversity and arbovirus circulation

Emerging and endemic mosquito-borne viruses can be difficult to detect and monitor because they often cause asymptomatic infections in human or vertebrate animals or cause nonspecific febrile illness with a short recovery waiting period. Some of these pathogens circulate into complex cryptic cycles involving several animal species as reservoir or amplifying hosts. Detection of cases in vertebrate hosts can be complemented by entomological surveillance, but this method is not adapted to low infection rates in mosquito populations that typically occur in low or nonendemic areas. We identified West Nile virus circulation in Camargue, a wetland area in South of France, using a cost-effective xenomonitoring method based on the molecular detection of virus in excreta from trapped mosquitoes. We also succeeded at identifying the mosquito species community on several sampling sites, together with the vertebrate hosts on which they fed prior to being captured using amplicon-based metabarcoding on mosquito excreta without processing any mosquitoes. Mosquito excreta-based virus surveillance can complement standard surveillance methods because it is cost-effective and does not require personnel with a strong background in entomology. This strategy can also be used to noninvasively explore the ecological network underlying arbovirus circulation.

Epidemiology and Clinical Manifestation of West Nile Virus Infections of Equines in Hungary, 2007-2020

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emerging pathogen in Hungary, causing severe outbreaks in equines and humans since 2007. The aim of our study was to provide a comprehensive report on the clinical signs of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) in horses in Hungary. Clinical details of 124 confirmed equine WNND cases were collected between 2007 and 2019. Data about the seasonal and geographical presentation, demographic data, clinical signs, treatment protocols, and disease progression were evaluated. Starting from an initial case originating from the area of possible virus introduction by migratory birds, the whole country became endemic with WNV over the subsequent 12 years. The transmission season did not expand significantly during the data collection period, but vaccination protocols should be always reviewed according to the recent observations. There was not any considerable relationship between the occurrence of WNND and age, breed, or gender. Ataxia was by far the most common neurologic sign related to the disease, but weakness, behavioral changes, and muscle fasciculation appeared frequently. Apart from recumbency combined with inappetence, no other clinical sign or treatment regime correlated with survival. The survival rate showed a moderate increase throughout the years, possibly due to the increased awareness of practitioners.

Scanning the solutions for the sustainable supply of forest ecosystem services in Europe

Forests are key components of European multifunctional landscapes and supply numerous forest ecosystem services (FES) fundamental to human well-being. The sustainable provision of FES has the potential to provide responses to major societal challenges, such as climate change, biodiversity loss, or rural development. To identify suitable strategies for the future sustenance of FES, we performed a solution scanning exercise with a group of transdisciplinary forest and FES experts from different European regions. We identified and prioritized fifteen major challenges hindering the balanced provision of multiple FES and identified a series of potential solutions to tackle each of them. The most prominent challenges referred to the increased frequency and impacts of extreme weather events and the normative mindset regarding forest management. The respective solutions pointed to the promotion of forest resilience via climate-smart forestry and mainstreaming FES-oriented management through a threefold strategy focusing on education, awareness raising, and networking. In a subsequent survey, most solutions were assessed as highly effective, transferable, monitorable, and with potential for being economically efficient. The implementation of the solutions could have synergistic effects when applying the notion of leverage points. Seven emerging pathways towards the sustainable supply of FES have been identified. These pathways build on each other and are organized based on their potential for transformation: (1) shifting forest management paradigms towards pluralistic ecosystem valuation; (2) using integrated landscape approaches; (3) increasing forest resilience; (4) coordinating actions between forest-related actors; (5) increasing participation in forest planning and management; (6) continuous, open, and transparent knowledge integration; and (7) using incentive-based instruments to support regulating and cultural FES. These pathways can contribute to the implementation of the new EU Forestry Strategy to support the balanced supply of multiple FES.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-022-01111-4.

Ranavirus Amplification in Low-Diversity Amphibian Communities

In an era where emerging infectious diseases are a serious threat to biodiversity, epidemiological patterns need to be identified, particularly the complex mechanisms driving the dynamics of multi-host pathogens in natural communities. Many amphibian species have faced unprecedented population declines associated with diseases. Yet, specific processes shaping host-pathogen relationships within and among communities for amphibian pathogens such as ranaviruses (RV) remain poorly understood. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive study of RV in low-diversity amphibian communities in north-western Canada to assess the effects of biotic factors (species identity, species richness, abundance) and abiotic factors (conductivity, pH) on the pathogen prevalence and viral loads. Across 2 years and 18 sites, with communities of up to three hosts (wood frog, Rana sylvatica; boreal chorus frog, Pseudacris maculata; Canadian toad, Anaxyrus hemiophrys), we observed that RV prevalence nearly doubled with each additional species in a community, suggesting an amplification effect in aquatic, as well as terrestrial life-history stages. Infection intensity among infected wood frogs and boreal chorus frogs also significantly increased with an increase in species richness. Interestingly, we did not observe any effects of host abundance or abiotic factors, highlighting the importance of including host identity and species richness when investigating multi-host pathogens. Ultimately, only such a comprehensive approach can improve our understanding of complex and often highly context-dependent host-pathogen interactions.

Ecological and environmental factors affecting transmission of sylvatic yellow fever in the 2017-2019 outbreak in the Atlantic Forest, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Yellow fever virus (YFV) is an arbovirus that, despite the existence of a safe and effective vaccine, continues to cause outbreaks of varying dimensions in the Americas and Africa. Between 2017 and 2019, Brazil registered un unprecedented sylvatic YFV outbreak whose severity was the result of its spread into zones of the Atlantic Forest with no signals of viral circulation for nearly 80 years.

METHODS

To investigate the influence of climatic, environmental, and ecological factors governing the dispersion and force of infection of YFV in a naïve area such as the landscape mosaic of Rio de Janeiro (RJ), we combined the analyses of a large set of data including entomological sampling performed before and during the 2017-2019 outbreak, with the geolocation of human and nonhuman primates (NHP) and mosquito infections.

RESULTS

A greater abundance of Haemagogus mosquitoes combined with lower richness and diversity of mosquito fauna increased the probability of finding a YFV-infected mosquito. Furthermore, the analysis of functional traits showed that certain functional groups, composed mainly of Aedini mosquitoes which includes Aedes and Haemagogus mosquitoes, are also more representative in areas where infected mosquitoes were found. Human and NHP infections were more common in two types of landscapes: large and continuous forest, capable of harboring many YFV hosts, and patches of small forest fragments, where environmental imbalance can lead to a greater density of the primary vectors and high human exposure. In both, we show that most human infections (~ 62%) occurred within an 11-km radius of the finding of an infected NHP, which is in line with the flight range of the primary vectors.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, our data suggest that entomological data and landscape composition analyses may help to predict areas permissive to yellow fever outbreaks, allowing protective measures to be taken to avoid human cases.

Pathogens and disease vectors/hosts monitoring in aquatic environments: Potential of using eDNA/eRNA based approach

Infectious diseases are spreading in to previously unreported geographical regions, and are reappeared in regions 75 or 100 years after their last reported case, as a result of environmental changes caused by anthropogenic activities. A pathogen, vector/host monitoring methodology is therefore indispensable in identifying potential transmission sites, providing early warnings and evaluating the human health risks of these infectious diseases in a given area. Recently, environmental DNA (eDNA) and environmental RNA approach (eRNA) have become widespread in monitoring organisms in the environment due to advantages like lower cost, time, and labour requirements. However, eDNA/eRNA based monitoring of pathogens and vectors/hosts using aquatic samples is limited to very few studies. In this review, we summarized the currently available eDNA/eRNA based human and non-human pathogens and vectors/hosts detection studies in aquatic samples. Species-specific shedding, transport, and decay of eDNA/eRNA in aquatic environments which is essential in estimating the abundance of pathogen, vectors/host in focus is also summarized. We also suggest the usage of eDNA/eRNA approach in urban aquatic samples like runoff in identifying the disease vectors/hosts inhabiting in locations which are not accessible easily.

Integrating Spatiotemporal Epidemiology, Eco-Phylogenetics, and Distributional Ecology to Assess West Nile Disease Risk in Horses

Mosquito-borne West Nile virus (WNV) is the causative agent of West Nile disease in humans, horses, and some bird species. Since the initial introduction of WNV to the United States (US), approximately 30,000 horses have been impacted by West Nile neurologic disease and hundreds of additional horses are infected each year. Research describing the drivers of West Nile disease in horses is greatly needed to better anticipate the spatial and temporal extent of disease risk, improve disease surveillance, and alleviate future economic impacts to the equine industry and private horse owners. To help meet this need, we integrated techniques from spatiotemporal epidemiology, eco-phylogenetics, and distributional ecology to assess West Nile disease risk in horses throughout the contiguous US. Our integrated approach considered horse abundance and virus exposure, vector and host distributions, and a variety of extrinsic climatic, socio-economic, and environmental risk factors. Birds are WNV reservoir hosts, and therefore we quantified avian host community dynamics across the continental US to show intra-annual variability in host phylogenetic structure and demonstrate host phylodiversity as a mechanism for virus amplification in time and virus dilution in space. We identified drought as a potential amplifier of virus transmission and demonstrated the importance of accounting for spatial non-stationarity when quantifying interaction between disease risk and meteorological influences such as temperature and precipitation. Our results delineated the timing and location of several areas at high risk of West Nile disease and can be used to prioritize vaccination programs and optimize virus surveillance and monitoring.

Ecologic Determinants of West Nile Virus Seroprevalence among Equids, Brazil

Among 713 equids sampled in northeastern Brazil during 2013-2018, West Nile virus seroprevalence was 4.5% (95% CI 3.1%-6.3%). Mathematical modeling substantiated higher seroprevalence adjacent to an avian migratory route and in areas characterized by forest loss, implying increased risk for zoonotic infections in disturbed areas.

Morphometric Patterns and Blood Biochemistry of Capybaras (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris) from Human-Modified Landscapes and Natural Landscapes in Brazil

The capybara, Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, is the largest extant rodent of the world. To better understand the correlation between size and body mass, and biochemical parameters of capybaras from areas with different degrees of anthropization (i.e., different food supplies), we sampled free-ranging capybaras from areas of natural landscapes (NLs) and human-modified landscapes (HMLs) in Brazil. Analyses of biometrical and biochemical parameters of capybaras showed that animals from HMLs were heavier (higher body mass) than those from NL, a condition possibly related to fat deposit rather than body length, as indicated by Body Condition Index (BCI) analyses. Biochemical parameters indicated higher serum levels of albumin, creatine kinase, cholesterol, fructosamine and total protein among capybaras from HMLs than from NLs; however, when all adult capybaras were analyzed together only cholesterol and triglycerides were positively correlated with body mass. We propose that the biochemical profile differences between HMLs and NLs are related to the obesity condition of capybaras among HMLs. Considering that heavier animals might live longer and reproduce more often, our results could have important implications in the population dynamics of capybaras among HMLs, where this rodent species is frequently represented by overgrowth populations that generate several levels of conflicts with human beings.

A field test of the dilution effect hypothesis in four avian multi-host pathogens

The Dilution Effect Hypothesis (DEH) argues that greater biodiversity lowers the risk of disease and reduces the rates of pathogen transmission since more diverse communities harbour fewer competent hosts for any given pathogen, thereby reducing host exposure to the pathogen. DEH is expected to operate most intensely in vector-borne pathogens and when species-rich communities are not associated with increased host density. Overall, dilution will occur if greater species diversity leads to a lower contact rate between infected vectors and susceptible hosts, and between infected hosts and susceptible vectors. Field-based tests simultaneously analysing the prevalence of several multi-host pathogens in relation to host and vector diversity are required to validate DEH. We tested the relationship between the prevalence in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) of four vector-borne pathogens-three avian haemosporidians (including the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium and the malaria-like parasites Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon) and West Nile virus (WNV)-and vertebrate diversity. Birds were sampled at 45 localities in SW Spain for which extensive data on vector (mosquitoes) and vertebrate communities exist. Vertebrate censuses were conducted to quantify avian and mammal density, species richness and evenness. Contrary to the predictions of DEH, WNV seroprevalence and haemosporidian prevalence were not negatively associated with either vertebrate species richness or evenness. Indeed, the opposite pattern was found, with positive relationships between avian species richness and WNV seroprevalence, and Leucocytozoon prevalence being detected. When vector (mosquito) richness and evenness were incorporated into the models, all the previous associations between WNV prevalence and the vertebrate community variables remained unchanged. No significant association was found for Plasmodium prevalence and vertebrate community variables in any of the models tested. Despite the studied system having several characteristics that should favour the dilution effect (i.e., vector-borne pathogens, an area where vector and host densities are unrelated, and where host richness is not associated with an increase in host density), none of the relationships between host species diversity and species richness, and pathogen prevalence supported DEH and, in fact, amplification was found for three of the four pathogens tested. Consequently, the range of pathogens and communities studied needs to be broadened if we are to understand the ecological factors that favour dilution and how often these conditions occur in nature.

Are environmental pollution and biodiversity levels associated to the spread and mortality of COVID-19? A four-month global analysis

On March 12th, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. The collective impact of environmental and ecosystem factors, as well as biodiversity, on the spread of COVID-19 and its mortality evolution remain empirically unknown, particularly in regions with a wide ecosystem range. The aim of our study is to assess how those factors impact on the COVID-19 spread and mortality by country. This study compiled a global database merging WHO daily case reports with other publicly available measures from January 21st to May 18th, 2020. We applied spatio-temporal models to identify the influence of biodiversity, temperature, and precipitation and fitted generalized linear mixed models to identify the effects of environmental variables. Additionally, we used count time series to characterize the association between COVID-19 spread and air quality factors. All analyses were adjusted by social demographic, country-income level, and government policy intervention confounders, among 160 countries, globally. Our results reveal a statistically meaningful association between COVID-19 infection and several factors of interest at country and city levels such as the national biodiversity index, air quality, and pollutants elements (PM10, PM2.5, and O3). Particularly, there is a significant relationship of loss of biodiversity, high level of air pollutants, and diminished air quality with COVID-19 infection spread and mortality. Our findings provide an empirical foundation for future studies on the relationship between air quality variables, a country's biodiversity, and COVID-19 transmission and mortality. The relationships measured in this study can be valuable when governments plan environmental and health policies, as alternative strategy to respond to new COVID-19 outbreaks and prevent future crises.

Individual, household and environmental factors associated with arboviruses in rural human populations, Brazil

Landscape change is one of the foremost drivers of the emergence of infectious diseases. Exploring demographic, household and environmental conditions under which infectious diseases occur may inform strategies to prevent disease emergence in human populations. We collected blood samples from 523 humans and explore factors for arbovirus emergence in Bahia, Brazil. The overall arbovirus seroprevalence was 65.2%, with the genus Flavivirus most prevalent (64.4%). Based on monotypic reactions, the population had contact with five arbovirus: Dengue 3, Ilheus, Oropouche, Caraparu and Eastern equine encephalitis virus. To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting exposure to Oropouche, Caraparu and Eastern equine encephalitis virus in human populations in Bahia, Northeast of Brazil. The best model fit demonstrated that household and environmental variables were more predictive of the risk of arbovirus exposure than demographic variables. The presence of forest and free-living monkeys in the areas close to the communities had a protective effect for the human population (i.e. lower seroprevalence). The dilution effect is considered as one explanation for this finding. These results highlight the important ecological role of wildlife-friendly agriculture.

Temporal and Spatial Blood Feeding Patterns of Urban Mosquitoes in the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico

Simple Summary

Understanding the biodiversity of urban ecosystems is critical for management of invasive and pest species, conserving native species, and disease control. Mosquitoes (Culicidae) are ubiquitous and abundant in urban ecosystems, and rely on blood meals taken from vertebrates. We used DNA from freshly blood-fed mosquitoes to characterize the diversity of vertebrate host species in the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico. We collected two mosquito species that fed on a variety of vertebrates. Culex quinquefasciatus fed on 17 avian taxa (81.2% of blood meals), seven mammalian taxa (17.9%), and one reptilian taxon (0.85%). Aedes aegypti blood meals were from a less diverse group, with two avian taxa (11.1%) and three mammalian taxa (88.9%) identified. Domestic chickens dominated the blood meals of Cx. quinquefasciatus, both temporally and spatially, and no statistically significant shift from birds to mammals was detected. The species we detected from the mosquito blood meals provided a snapshot of the vertebrate community in the San Juan Metropolitan Area, most of which were domestic species. However, we also identified a variety of native and nonnative wild species. These results add knowledge about potential ecological factors that impact vector-borne disease management in urban habitats.

Abstract

Urban ecosystems are a patchwork of habitats that host a broad diversity of animal species. Insects comprise a large portion of urban biodiversity which includes many pest species, including those that transmit pathogens. Mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) inhabit urban environments and rely on sympatric vertebrate species to complete their life cycles, and in this process transmit pathogens to animals and humans. Given that mosquitoes feed upon vertebrates, they can also act as efficient samplers that facilitate detection of vertebrate species that utilize urban ecosystems. In this study, we analyzed DNA extracted from mosquito blood meals collected temporally in multiple neighborhoods of the San Juan Metropolitan Area, Puerto Rico to evaluate the presence of vertebrate fauna. DNA was collected from 604 individual mosquitoes that represented two common urban species, Culex quinquefasciatus (n = 586) and Aedes aegypti (n = 18). Culex quinquefasciatus fed on 17 avian taxa (81.2% of blood meals), seven mammalian taxa (17.9%), and one reptilian taxon (0.85%). Domestic chickens dominated these blood meals both temporally and spatially, and no statistically significant shift from birds to mammals was detected. Aedes aegypti blood meals were from a less diverse group, with two avian taxa (11.1%) and three mammalian taxa (88.9%) identified. The blood meals we identified provided a snapshot of the vertebrate community in the San Juan Metropolitan Area and have potential implications for vector-borne pathogen transmission.

Transdisciplinary Research Priorities for Human and Planetary Health in the Context of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Human health and wellbeing and the health of the biosphere are inextricably linked. The state of Earth's life-support systems, including freshwater, oceans, land, biodiversity, atmosphere, and climate, affect human health. At the same time, human activities are adversely affecting natural systems. This review paper is the outcome of an interdisciplinary workshop under the auspices of the Future Earth Health Knowledge Action Network (Health KAN). It outlines a research agenda to address cross-cutting knowledge gaps to further understanding and management of the health risks of these global environmental changes through an expert consultation and review process. The research agenda has four main themes: (1) risk identification and management (including related to water, hygiene, sanitation, and waste management); food production and consumption; oceans; and extreme weather events and climate change. (2) Strengthening climate-resilient health systems; (3) Monitoring, surveillance, and evaluation; and (4) risk communication. Research approaches need to be transdisciplinary, multi-scalar, inclusive, equitable, and broadly communicated. Promoting resilient and sustainable development are critical for achieving human and planetary health.

Comparative Pathology of West Nile Virus in Humans and Non-Human Animals

West Nile virus (WNV) continues to be a major cause of human arboviral neuroinvasive disease. Susceptible non-human vertebrates are particularly diverse, ranging from commonly affected birds and horses to less commonly affected species such as alligators. This review summarizes the pathology caused by West Nile virus during natural infections of humans and non-human animals. While the most well-known findings in human infection involve the central nervous system, WNV can also cause significant lesions in the heart, kidneys and eyes. Time has also revealed chronic neurologic sequelae related to prior human WNV infection. Similarly, neurologic disease is a prominent manifestation of WNV infection in most non-human non-host animals. However, in some avian species, which serve as the vertebrate host for WNV maintenance in nature, severe systemic disease can occur, with neurologic, cardiac, intestinal and renal injury leading to death. The pathology seen in experimental animal models of West Nile virus infection and knowledge gains on viral pathogenesis derived from these animal models are also briefly discussed. A gap in the current literature exists regarding the relationship between the neurotropic nature of WNV in vertebrates, virus propagation and transmission in nature. This and other knowledge gaps, and future directions for research into WNV pathology, are addressed.

Bats and COVID-19: villains or victims?

Abstract Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, bats are being pointed as responsible for its origin, even without solid scientific evidence. In this opinion piece, we discuss the most updated information on bats and COVID-19 and argue that bats should not be blamed for a disease they are not responsible for. Bats should be seen not as dangerous animals but, instead, as sources of several scientific insights useful for human health.

Hantavirus infection and biodiversity in the Americas

Species diversity has been proposed to decrease prevalence of disease in a wide variety of host-pathogen systems, in a phenomenon labeled the dilution effect. This phenomenon was first proposed and tested for vector-borne diseases but was later extended to directly transmitted parasite systems such as hantavirus. Though there seems to be clear evidence for the dilution effect in some hantavirus/rodent systems, the generality of this hypothesis remains debated. In the present meta-analysis, we examined the evidence supporting the dilution effect for hantavirus/rodent systems in the Americas. General linear models employed on data from 56 field studies identified the abundance of the reservoir rodent species and its relative proportion in the community as the only relevant variables explaining the prevalence of antibodies against hantavirus in the reservoir. Thus, we found no clear support for the dilution effect hypothesis for hantavirus/rodent systems in the Americas.

Land-Use Change Alters Host and Vector Communities and May Elevate Disease Risk

Land-use change has transformed most of the planet. Concurrently, recent outbreaks of various emerging infectious diseases have raised great attention to the health consequences of anthropogenic environmental degradation. Here, we assessed the global impacts of habitat conversion and other land-use changes on community structures of infectious disease hosts and vectors, using a meta-analysis of 37 studies. From 331 pairwise comparisons of disease hosts/vectors in pristine (undisturbed) and disturbed areas, we found a decrease in species diversity but an increase in body size associated with land-use changes, potentially suggesting higher risk of infectious disease transmission in disturbed habitats. Neither host nor vector abundance, however, changed significantly following disturbance. When grouped by subcategories like disturbance type, taxonomic group, pathogen type and region, changes in host/vector community composition varied considerably. Fragmentation and agriculture in particular benefit host and vector communities and therefore might elevate disease risk. Our results indicate that while habitat disturbance could alter disease host/vector communities in ways that exacerbate pathogen prevalence, the relationship is highly context-dependent and influenced by multiple factors.

Models and Surveillance Systems to Detect and Predict West Nile Virus Outbreaks

Over the past 20 yr, many models have been developed to predict risk for West Nile virus (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) disease in the human population. These models have aided our understanding of the meteorological and land-use variables that drive spatial and temporal patterns of human disease risk. During the same period, electronic data systems have been adopted by surveillance programs across much of the United States, including a growing interest in integrated data services that preserve the autonomy and attribution of credit to originating agencies but facilitate data sharing, analysis, and visualization at local, state, and national scales. At present, nearly all predictive models have been limited to the scientific literature, with few having been implemented for use by public-health and vector-control decision makers. The current article considers the development of models for spatial patterns, early warning, and early detection of WNV over the last 20 yr and considers some possible paths toward increasing the utility of these models for guiding interventions.

Predicting West Nile virus transmission in North American bird communities using phylogenetic mixed effects models and eBird citizen science data

BACKGROUND

West Nile virus (WNV) is a mosquito-transmitted disease of birds that has caused bird population declines and can spill over into human populations. Previous research has identified bird species that infect a large fraction of the total pool of infected mosquitoes and correlate with human infection risk; however, these analyses cover small spatial regions and cannot be used to predict transmission in bird communities in which these species are rare or absent. Here we present a mechanistic model for WNV transmission that predicts WNV spread (R0) in any bird community in North America by scaling up from the physiological responses of individual birds to transmission at the level of the community. We predict unmeasured bird species' responses to infection using phylogenetic imputation, based on these species' phylogenetic relationships with bird species with measured responses.

RESULTS

We focused our analysis on Texas, USA, because it is among the states with the highest total incidence of WNV in humans and is well sampled by birders in the eBird database. Spatio-temporal patterns: WNV transmission is primarily driven by temperature variation across time and space, and secondarily by bird community composition. In Texas, we predicted WNV R0 to be highest in the spring and fall when temperatures maximize the product of mosquito transmission and survival probabilities. In the most favorable months for WNV transmission (April, May, September and October), we predicted R0 to be highest in the "Piney Woods" and "Oak Woods & Prairies" ecoregions of Texas, and lowest in the "High Plains" and "South Texas Brush County" ecoregions. Dilution effect: More abundant bird species are more competent hosts for WNV, and predicted WNV R0 decreases with increasing species richness. Keystone species: We predicted that northern cardinals (Cardinalis cardinalis) are the most important hosts for amplifying WNV and that mourning doves (Zenaida macroura) are the most important sinks of infection across Texas.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite some data limitations, we demonstrate the power of phylogenetic imputation in predicting disease transmission in heterogeneous host communities. Our mechanistic modeling framework shows promise both for assisting future analyses on transmission and spillover in heterogeneous multispecies pathogen systems and for improving model transparency by clarifying assumptions, choices and shortcomings in complex ecological analyses.

Risk factors associated with sustained circulation of six zoonotic arboviruses: a systematic review for selection of surveillance sites in non-endemic areas

Arboviruses represent a significant burden to public health and local economies due to their ability to cause unpredictable and widespread epidemics. To maximize early detection of arbovirus emergence in non-endemic areas, surveillance efforts should target areas where circulation is most likely. However, identifying such hotspots of potential emergence is a major challenge. The ecological conditions leading to arbovirus outbreaks are shaped by complex interactions between the virus, its vertebrate hosts, arthropod vector, and abiotic environment that are often poorly understood. Here, we systematically review the ecological risk factors associated with the circulation of six arboviruses that are of considerable concern to northwestern Europe. These include three mosquito-borne viruses (Japanese encephalitis virus, West Nile virus, Rift Valley fever virus) and three tick-borne viruses (Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever virus, tick-borne encephalitis virus, and louping-ill virus). We consider both intrinsic (e.g. vector and reservoir host competence) and extrinsic (e.g. temperature, precipitation, host densities, land use) risk factors, identify current knowledge gaps, and discuss future directions. Our systematic review provides baseline information for the identification of regions and habitats that have suitable ecological conditions for endemic circulation, and therefore may be used to target early warning surveillance programs aimed at detecting multi-virus and/or arbovirus emergence.

Rat-borne diseases at the horizon. A systematic review on infectious agents carried by rats in Europe 1995-2016

To investigate the spectrum of rat-borne pathogens circulating in Europe a systematic review spanning across 55 European countries during the years 1995-2016 was performed. The study surveyed viruses, bacteria, macroparasites and unicellular eukaryotes (protozoa). Fifty-three different infectious agents, all with zoonotic potential, were reported to be carried by commensal rats; 48 by the brown rat (Rattus norvegicus) and 20 by the black rat (R. rattus). There was a tendency for rural areas to harbour more rat-borne microbes than urban areas regarding the brown rat, but the opposite could be observed for the black rat. The study clearly indicated that an improved surveillance on wild rats is needed in Europe, and further indicated the pathogens and geographical areas where the major focus is required. For example, six zoonotic microbes seemed to be clearly more geographically widespread in Europe than others; virulent or resistant E. coli, pathogenic Leptospira spp., Hymenolepis diminuta, H. nana, Capillaria hepatica and Toxoplasma gondii.

Biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in naturally assembled communities

Approximately 25 years ago, ecologists became increasingly interested in the question of whether ongoing biodiversity loss matters for the functioning of ecosystems. As such, a new ecological subfield on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning (BEF) was born. This subfield was initially dominated by theoretical studies and by experiments in which biodiversity was manipulated, and responses of ecosystem functions such as biomass production, decomposition rates, carbon sequestration, trophic interactions and pollination were assessed. More recently, an increasing number of studies have investigated BEF relationships in non-manipulated ecosystems, but reviews synthesizing our knowledge on the importance of real-world biodiversity are still largely missing. I performed a systematic review in order to assess how biodiversity drives ecosystem functioning in both terrestrial and aquatic, naturally assembled communities, and on how important biodiversity is compared to other factors, including other aspects of community composition and abiotic conditions. The outcomes of 258 published studies, which reported 726 BEF relationships, revealed that in many cases, biodiversity promotes average biomass production and its temporal stability, and pollination success. For decomposition rates and ecosystem multifunctionality, positive effects of biodiversity outnumbered negative effects, but neutral relationships were even more common. Similarly, negative effects of prey biodiversity on pathogen and herbivore damage outnumbered positive effects, but were less common than neutral relationships. Finally, there was no evidence that biodiversity is related to soil carbon storage. Most BEF studies focused on the effects of taxonomic diversity, however, metrics of functional diversity were generally stronger predictors of ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, in most studies, abiotic factors and functional composition (e.g. the presence of a certain functional group) were stronger drivers of ecosystem functioning than biodiversity per se. While experiments suggest that positive biodiversity effects become stronger at larger spatial scales, in naturally assembled communities this idea is too poorly studied to draw general conclusions. In summary, a high biodiversity in naturally assembled communities positively drives various ecosystem functions. At the same time, the strength and direction of these effects vary highly among studies, and factors other than biodiversity can be even more important in driving ecosystem functioning. Thus, to promote those ecosystem functions that underpin human well-being, conservation should not only promote biodiversity per se, but also the abiotic conditions favouring species with suitable trait combinations.

Evolutionary and ecological insights into the emergence of arthropod-borne viruses

The emergence of arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) is of global concern as they can rapidly spread across countries and to new continents as the recent examples of chikungunya virus and Zika virus have demonstrated. Whereas the global movement patterns of emerging arboviruses are comparatively well studied, there is little knowledge on initial emergence processes that enable sylvatic (enzootic) viruses to leave their natural amplification cycle and infect humans or livestock, often also involving infection of anthropophilic vector species. Emerging arboviruses almost exclusively originate in highly biodiverse ecosystems of tropical countries. Changes in host population diversity and density can affect pathogen transmission patterns and are likely to influence arbovirus emergence processes. This review focuses on concepts from disease ecology, explaining the interplay between biodiversity and pathogen emergence.

Competent Hosts and Endemicity of Multi-Host Vector-Borne Diseases

In this paper, we propose a method to study a general vector-host mathematical model in order to explain how the changes in biodiversity could influence the dynamics of vector-borne diseases. We find that under the assumption of frequency-dependent transmission, i.e., the assumption that the number of contacts is diluted by the total population of hosts, the presence of a competent host is a necessary condition for the existence of an endemic state. In addition, we obtain that in the case of an endemic disease with a unique competent and resilient host, an increase in its density amplifies the disease.

West Nile virus transmission and human infection risk in Veneto (Italy): a modelling analysis

An intensified and continuous West Nile virus (WNV) spread across northern Italy has been observed since 2008, which caused more than one hundred reported human infections until 2016. Veneto is one of the Italian regions where WNV is considered endemic, and the greatest intensity of circulation was observed during 2013 and 2016. By using entomological data collected across the region in those years, we calibrated a temperature-driven mathematical model through a Bayesian approach that simulates the WNV infection in an avian population with seasonal demography. We considered two alternative routes of life cycle re-activation of the virus at the beginning of each vector breeding season: in the first one the virus is maintained by infected birds, in the other by diapausing mosquitoes previously infected. Afterwards, we computed seasonal risk curves for human infection and quantified how they translate into reported symptomatic cases. According to our results, WNV is more likely to be re-activated each year via previously infected mosquitoes. The highest probability of human infection is expected to occur in August, consistently with observations. Our epidemiological estimates can be of particular interest for public health authorities, to support decisions in term of designing efficient surveillance plans and preventive measures.

Biodiversity and human health: mechanisms and evidence of the positive health effects of diversity in nature and green spaces

INTRODUCTION

Natural environments and green spaces provide ecosystem services that enhance human health and well-being. They improve mental health, mitigate allergies and reduce all-cause, respiratory, cardiovascular and cancer mortality. The presence, accessibility, proximity and greenness of green spaces determine the magnitude of their positive health effects, but the role of biodiversity (including species and ecosystem diversity) within green spaces remains underexplored. This review describes mechanisms and evidence of effects of biodiversity in nature and green spaces on human health.

SOURCES OF DATA

We identified studies listed in PubMed and Web of Science using combinations of keywords including 'biodiversity', 'diversity', 'species richness', 'human health', 'mental health' and 'well-being' with no restrictions on the year of publication. Papers were considered for detailed evaluation if they were written in English and reported data on levels of biodiversity and health outcomes.

AREAS OF AGREEMENT

There is evidence for positive associations between species diversity and well-being (psychological and physical) and between ecosystem diversity and immune system regulation.

AREAS OF CONCERN

There is a very limited number of studies that relate measured biodiversity to human health. There is more evidence for self-reported psychological well-being than for well-defined clinical outcomes. High species diversity has been associated with both reduced and increased vector-borne disease risk.

GROWING POINTS

Biodiversity supports ecosystem services mitigating heat, noise and air pollution, which all mediate the positive health effects of green spaces, but direct and long-term health outcomes of species diversity have been insufficiently studied so far.

AREAS TIMELY FOR RESEARCH

Additional research and newly developed methods are needed to quantify short- and long-term health effects of exposure to perceived and objectively measured species diversity, including health effects of nature-based solutions and exposure to microbiota.

An Integrative Eco-Epidemiological Analysis of West Nile Virus Transmission

West Nile disease, caused by the West Nile virus (WNV), is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease affecting humans and horses that involves wild birds as amplifying hosts. The mechanisms of WNV transmission remain unclear in Europe where the occurrence of outbreaks has dramatically increased in recent years. We used a dataset on the competence, distribution, abundance, diversity and dispersal of wild bird hosts and mosquito vectors to test alternative hypotheses concerning the transmission of WNV in Southern France. We modelled the successive processes of introduction, amplification, dispersal and spillover of WNV to incidental hosts based on host-vector contact rates on various land cover types and over four seasons. We evaluated the relative importance of the mechanisms tested using two independent serological datasets of WNV antibodies collected in wild birds and horses. We found that the same transmission processes (seasonal virus introduction by migratory birds, Culex modestus mosquitoes as amplifying vectors, heterogeneity in avian host competence, absence of 'dilution effect') best explain the spatial variations in WNV seroprevalence in the two serological datasets. Our results provide new insights on the pathways of WNV introduction, amplification and spillover and the contribution of bird and mosquito species to WNV transmission in Southern France.

Does the impact of biodiversity differ between emerging and endemic pathogens? The need to separate the concepts of hazard and risk

Biodiversity is of critical value to human societies, but recent evidence that biodiversity may mitigate infectious-disease risk has sparked controversy among researchers. The majority of work on this topic has focused on direct assessments of the relationship between biodiversity and endemic-pathogen prevalence, without disentangling intervening mechanisms; thus study outcomes often differ, fuelling more debate. Here, we suggest two critical changes to the approach researchers take to understanding relationships between infectious disease, both endemic and emerging, and biodiversity that may help clarify sources of controversy. First, the distinct concepts of hazards versus risks need to be separated to determine how biodiversity and its drivers may act differently on each. This distinction is particularly important since it illustrates that disease emergence drivers in humans could be quite different to the general relationship between biodiversity and transmission of endemic pathogens. Second, the interactive relationship among biodiversity, anthropogenic change and zoonotic disease risk, including both direct and indirect effects, needs to be recognized and accounted for. By carefully disentangling these interactions between humans' activities and pathogen circulation in wildlife, we suggest that conservation efforts could mitigate disease risks and hazards in novel ways that complement more typical disease control efforts.This article is part of the themed issue 'Conservation, biodiversity and infectious disease: scientific evidence and policy implications'.

Avian species diversity and transmission of West Nile virus in Atlanta, Georgia

Background

The dilution effect is the reduction in vector-borne pathogen transmission associated with the presence of diverse potential host species, some of which are incompetent. It is popularized as the notion that increased biodiversity leads to decreased rates of disease. West Nile virus (WNV) is an endemic mosquito-borne virus in the United States that is maintained in a zoonotic cycle involving various avian host species. In Atlanta, Georgia, substantial WNV presence in the vector and host species has not translated into a high number of human cases.

Methods

To determine whether a dilution effect was contributing to this reduced transmission, we characterized the host species community composition and performed WNV surveillance of hosts and vectors in urban Atlanta between 2010 and 2011. We tested the relationship between host diversity and both host seroprevalence and vector infection rates using a negative binomial generalized linear mixed model.

Results

Regardless of how we measured host diversity or whether we considered host seroprevalence and vector infection rates as predictor variables or outcome variables, we did not detect a dilution effect. Rather, we detected an amplification effect, in which increased host diversity resulted in increased seroprevalence or infection rates; this is the first empirical evidence for this effect in a mosquito-borne system.

Conclusions

We suggest that this effect may be driven by an over-abundance of moderately- to poorly-competent host species, such as northern cardinals and members of the Mimid family, which cause optimal hosts to become rarer and present primarily in species-rich areas. Our results support the notion that dilution or amplification effects depend more on the identities of the species comprising the host community than on the absolute diversity of hosts.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-017-1999-6) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mosquitoes of the Caatinga: 1. Adults stage survey and the emerge of seven news species endemic of a dry tropical forest in Brazil

The Caatinga is the least known Brazilian biome in terms of the diversity of Culicidae. No systematic study of the diversity or ecology of the mosquitoes of this biome is available, despite the importance of vector diseases in Brazil. The present study addressed the mosquito biodiversity in the Caatinga biome by sampling adult populations. Specimens were sampled monthly from March 2013 to September 2014 in a Caatinga conservation unit located in the Brazilian semiarid zone. Mosquito collections were carried out in Shannon traps from late afternoon to early evening, and manual aspiration was used to capture diurnal species as well. A total of 4,692 mosquitoes were collected. The most dominant and constant species were all undescribed species belonging to the genera Wyeomyia and Runchomyia, which together represented 80% of the specimens. The most abundant species of epidemiological importance was Haemagogus (Con.) leucocelaenus. The abundance of mosquitoes was positively associated with the relative humidity and temperature recorded during the month preceding the collection date. In the Caatinga, the diversity of adult mosquitoes was associated with the availability (quantity and diversity) of natural larval habitats found in the different phytophysiognomies of the biome, which vary according to temperature and humidity. The number of species unknown to science reflects the levels of endemism that exist in the study area, and reinforces the need to further taxonomic investigation in the biome.

Climatic, ecological, and socioeconomic factors associated with West Nile virus incidence in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.A

The integrated effects of the many risk factors associated with West Nile virus (WNV) incidence are complex and not well understood. We studied an array of risk factors in and around Atlanta, GA, that have been shown to be linked with WNV in other locations. This array was comprehensive and included climate and meteorological metrics, vegetation characteristics, land use / land cover analyses, and socioeconomic factors. Data on mosquito abundance and WNV mosquito infection rates were obtained for 58 sites and covered 2009-2011, a period following the combined storm water - sewer overflow remediation in that city. Risk factors were compared to mosquito abundance and the WNV vector index (VI) using regression analyses individually and in combination. Lagged climate variables, including soil moisture and temperature, were significantly correlated (positively) with vector index as were forest patch size and percent pine composition of patches (both negatively). Socioeconomic factors that were most highly correlated (positively) with the VI included the proportion of low income households and homes built before 1960 and housing density. The model selected through stepwise regression that related risk factors to the VI included (in the order of decreasing influence) proportion of houses built before 1960, percent of pine in patches, and proportion of low income households.

Disease and Human/Animal Interactions

Understanding pathogen exchange among human, wildlife, and livestock populations, and the varying ecological and cultural contexts in which this exchange takes place, is a major challenge. The present review contextualizes the risk factors that result from human interactions with livestock, companion animals, animal exhibits, wildlife through nature-based tourism, and wildlife through consumption. Given their phylogenetic relatedness to humans, primates are emphasized in this discussion; primates serve as reservoirs for several human pathogens, and some human pathogens can decimate wild primate populations. Anthropologists must play a central role in understanding cultural variation in attitudes toward other species as well as perceived risks when interacting with animals. I argue that the remediation of emerging infectious diseases will be accomplished primarily through human behavioral changes rather than through efforts in pathogen discovery. Given the history of human interactions with wildlife, candid discussions on zoonotic diseases will be increasingly important for our combined survival.

Development and validation of a climate-based ensemble prediction model for West Nile Virus infection rates in Culex mosquitoes, Suffolk County, New York

Background

West Nile Virus (WNV) is an endemic public health concern in the United States that produces periodic seasonal epidemics. Underlying these outbreaks is the enzootic cycle of WNV between mosquito vectors and bird hosts. Identifying the key environmental conditions that facilitate and accelerate this cycle can be used to inform effective vector control.

Results

Here, we model and forecast WNV infection rates among mosquito vectors in Suffolk County, New York using readily available meteorological and hydrological conditions. We first validate a statistical model built with surveillance data between 2001 and 2009 (m09) and specify a set of new statistical models using surveillance data from 2001 to 2012 (m12). This ensemble of new models is then used to make predictions for 2013–2015, and multimodel inference is employed to provide a formal probabilistic interpretation across the disparate individual model predictions. The findings of the m09 and m12 models align; with the ensemble of m12 models indicating an association between warm, dry early spring (April) conditions and increased annual WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes.

Conclusions

This study shows that real-time climate information can be used to predict WNV infection rates in Culex mosquitoes prior to its seasonal peak and before WNV spillover transmission risk to humans is greatest.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1720-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The diversity-disease relationship: evidence for and criticisms of the dilution effect

The dilution effect, that high host species diversity can reduce disease risk, has attracted much attention in the context of global biodiversity decline and increasing disease emergence. Recent studies have criticized the generality of the dilution effect and argued that it only occurs under certain circumstances. Nevertheless, evidence for the existence of a dilution effect was reported in about 80% of the studies that addressed the diversity-disease relationship, and a recent meta-analysis found that the dilution effect is widespread. We here review supporting and critical studies, point out the causes underlying the current disputes. The dilution is expected to be strong when the competent host species tend to remain when species diversity declines, characterized as a negative relationship between species' reservoir competence and local extinction risk. We here conclude that most studies support a negative competence-extinction relationship. We then synthesize the current knowledge on how the diversity-disease relationship can be modified by particular species in community, by the scales of analyses, and by the disease risk measures. We also highlight the complex role of habitat fragmentation in the diversity-disease relationship from epidemiological, evolutionary and ecological perspectives, and construct a synthetic framework integrating these three perspectives. We suggest that future studies should test the diversity-disease relationship across different scales and consider the multiple effects of landscape fragmentation.

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10-15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems.