Time to evolve? Potential evolutionary responses of fraser river sockeye salmon to climate change and effects on persistence

Global warming is projected to lead to increased freshwater growth potential and changes in pace of life in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

Global warming has been implicated in widespread demographic changes in Atlantic salmon Salmo salar populations, but projections of life-history responses to future climate change are lacking. Here, we first exploit multiple decades of climate and biological data from the Burrishoole catchment in the west of Ireland to model statistical relationships between atmospheric variables, water temperature, and freshwater growth of juvenile Atlantic salmon. We then use this information to project potential changes in juvenile growth and life-history scheduling under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios from 1961 to 2100, based on an ensemble of five climate models. Historical water temperatures were well predicted with a recurrent neural network, using observation-based atmospheric forcing data. Length-at-age was in turn also well predicted by cumulative growing degree days calculated from these water temperatures. Most juveniles in the Burrishoole population migrated to sea as 2-year-old smolts, but our future projections indicate that the system should start producing a greater proportion of 1-year-old smolts, as increasingly more juveniles cross a size-based threshold in their first summer for smoltification the following spring. Those failing to cross the size-based threshold will instead become 2-year-old smolts, but at a larger length relative to 2-year-old smolts observed currently, owing to greater overall freshwater growth opportunity. These changes in age- and size-at-seaward migration could have cascading effects on age- and size-at-maturity and reproductive output. Consequently, the seemingly small changes that our results demonstrate have the potential to cause significant shifts in population dynamics over the full life cycle. This workflow is highly applicable across the range of the Atlantic salmon, as well as to other anadromous species, as it uses openly accessible climate data and a length-at-age model with minimal input requirements, fostering improved general understanding of phenotypic and demographic responses to climate change and management implications.

Reliability of trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR) for enumerating Pacific salmon

As Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) decline across much of their range, it is imperative to further develop minimally invasive tools to quantify population abundance. One such advancement, trans-generational genetic mark-recapture (tGMR), uses parentage analysis to estimate the size of wild populations. Our study examined the precision and accuracy of tGMR through a comparison to a traditional mark-recapture estimate for Chilkat River Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) in Southeast Alaska. We examined how adult sampling location and timing impact tGMR by comparing estimates derived using samples collected in the lower river mainstem to those using samples obtained in upriver spawning tributaries. Results indicated that tGMR estimates using a representative sample of mainstem adults were most concordant with, and 3% more precise than, the traditional mark-recapture estimate for this stock. Importantly, the timing and location of adult sampling were found to impact abundance estimates, depending on what proportion of the population dies or moves to unsampled areas between downriver and upriver sampling events. Additionally, we identified potential sources of bias in tGMR arising from violations of key assumptions using a novel individual-based modeling framework, parameterized with empirical values from the Chilkat River. Simulations demonstrated that increased reproductive success and sampling selectivity of older, larger individuals, introduced negative bias into tGMR estimates. Our individual-based model offers a customizable and accessible method to identify and quantify these biases in tGMR applications (https://github.com/swrosenbaum/tGMR_simulations). We underscore the critical role of system-specific sampling design considerations in ensuring the precision and accuracy of tGMR projects. This study validates tGMR as a potentially useful tool for improved population enumeration in semelparous species.

Assortative mating for reproductive timing affects population recruitment and resilience in a quantitative genetic model

Quantitative models that simulate the inheritance and evolution of fitness-linked traits offer a method for predicting how environmental or anthropogenic perturbations can affect the dynamics of wild populations. Random mating between individuals within populations is a key assumption of many such models used in conservation and management to predict the impacts of proposed management or conservation actions. However, recent evidence suggests that non-random mating may be underestimated in wild populations and play an important role in diversity-stability relationships. Here we introduce a novel individual-based quantitative genetic model that incorporates assortative mating for reproductive timing, a defining attribute of many aggregate breeding species. We demonstrate the utility of this framework by simulating a generalized salmonid lifecycle, varying input parameters, and comparing model outputs to theoretical expectations for several eco-evolutionary, population dynamic scenarios. Simulations with assortative mating systems resulted in more resilient and productive populations than those that were randomly mating. In accordance with established ecological and evolutionary theory, we also found that decreasing the magnitude of trait correlations, environmental variability, and strength of selection each had a positive effect on population growth. Our model is constructed in a modular framework so that future components can be easily added to address pressing issues such as the effects of supportive breeding, variable age structure, differential selection by sex or age, and fishery interactions on population growth and resilience. With code published in a public Github repository, model outputs may easily be tailored to specific study systems by parameterizing with empirically generated values from long-term ecological monitoring programs.

Decadal Trends in the Migration Phenology of Diadromous Fishes Native to the Burrishoole Catchment, Ireland

Migration is an important ecological trait that allows animals to exploit resources in different habitats, obtaining extra energy for growth and reproduction. The phenology (or timing) of migration is a highly heritable trait, but is also controlled by environmental factors. Numerous studies have reported the advancement of species life-events with climate change, but the rate and significance of such advancement is likely to be species specific, spatially variable and dependent on interactions with population and ecosystem changes. This is particularly true for diadromous fishes which are sentinels of change in both freshwater and marine domains, and are subject to considerable multiple stressors including overfishing and habitat degradation. Here, we describe trends in the migration phenology of three native Irish migratory fishes over half a century, Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar), brown trout (Salmo trutta) and European eel (Anguilla anguilla). The trends were derived from daily counts of 745,263 fish moving upstream and downstream through the fish traps of the Burrishoole catchment, an internationally important monitoring infrastructure allowing a full census of migrating fish. We found that the start of the seaward migration of eel has advanced by one month since 1970. The commencement of the salmon smolt migration has advanced by one week, although the rest of the migration, and the entirety of the trout smolt run has remained stable. The beginning of the upstream migration of trout to freshwater has advanced by 20 days, while the end of the run is more than one month later than in the 1970’s. The greatest phenological shift has been in the upstream migration of adult salmon, with at least half of migrating fish returning between one and two months earlier from the marine environment compared to the 1970’s. The earlier return of these salmon is coincident with reduced marine survival and decreasing body size, indicating considerable oceanic challenges for this species. Our results demonstrate that the impacts of climate change on the phenology of diadromous fish are context-dependent and may interact with other factors. The mobilization of long-term datasets are crucial to parse the ecological impacts of climate change from other anthropogenic stresses.

How riparian and floodplain restoration modify the effects of increasing temperature on adult salmon spawner abundance in the Chehalis River, WA

Stream temperatures in the Pacific Northwest are projected to increase with climate change, placing additional stress on cold-water salmonids. We modeled the potential impact of increased stream temperatures on four anadromous salmonid populations in the Chehalis River Basin (spring-run and fall-run Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, coho salmon O. kisutch, and steelhead O. mykiss), as well as the potential for floodplain reconnection and stream shade restoration to offset the effects of future temperature increases. In the Chehalis River Basin, peak summer stream temperatures are predicted to increase by as much as 3°C by late-century, but restoration actions can locally decrease temperatures by as much as 6°C. On average, however, basin-wide average stream temperatures are expected to increase because most reaches have low temperature reduction potential for either restoration action relative to climate change. Results from the life cycle models indicated that, without restoration actions, increased summer temperatures are likely to produce significant declines in spawner abundance by late-century for coho (-29%), steelhead (-34%), and spring-run Chinook salmon (-95%), and smaller decreases for fall-run Chinook salmon (-17%). Restoration actions reduced these declines in all cases, although model results suggest that temperature restoration alone may not fully mitigate effects of future temperature increases. Notably, floodplain reconnection provided a greater benefit than riparian restoration for steelhead and both Chinook salmon populations, but riparian restoration provided a greater benefit for coho. This pattern emerged because coho salmon tend to spawn and rear in smaller streams where shade restoration has a larger effect on stream temperature, whereas Chinook and steelhead tend to occupy larger rivers where temperatures are more influenced by floodplain connectivity. Spring-run Chinook salmon are the only population for which peak temperatures affect adult prespawn survival in addition to rearing survival, making them the most sensitive species to increasing stream temperatures.

Host-pathogen-environment interactions predict survival outcomes of adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) released from fisheries

Incorporating host-pathogen(s)-environment axes into management and conservation planning is critical to preserving species in a warming climate. However, the role pathogens play in host stress resilience remains largely unexplored in wild animal populations. We experimentally characterized how independent and cumulative stressors (fisheries handling, high water temperature) and natural infections affected the health and longevity of released wild adult sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in British Columbia, Canada. Returning adults were collected before and after entering the Fraser River, yielding marine- and river-collected groups, respectively (N = 185). Fish were exposed to a mild (seine) or severe (gill net) fishery treatment at collection, and then held in flow-through freshwater tanks for up to four weeks at historical (14°C) or projected migration temperatures (18°C). Using weekly nonlethal gill biopsies and high-throughput qPCR, we quantified loads of up to 46 pathogens with host stress and immune gene expression. Marine-collected fish had less severe infections than river-collected fish, a short migration distance (100 km, 5-7 days) that produced profound infection differences. At 14°C, river-collected fish survived 1-2 weeks less than marine-collected fish. All fish held at 18°C died within 4 weeks unless they experienced minimal handling. Gene expression correlated with infections in river-collected fish, while marine-collected fish were more stressor-responsive. Cumulative stressors were detrimental regardless of infections or collection location, probably due to extreme physiological disturbance. Because river-derived infections correlated with single stressor responses, river entry probably decreases stressor resilience of adult salmon by altering both physiology and pathogen burdens, which redirect host responses toward disease resistance.

Thermal sensitivity and flow-mediated migratory delays drive climate risk for coastal sockeye salmon

Climate change is subjecting aquatic species to increasing temperatures and shifting hydrologic conditions. Understanding how these changes affect individual survival can help guide conservation and management actions. Anadromous Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.) in some large river systems are acutely impacted by the river temperatures and flows encountered during their spawning migrations. However, comparatively little is known about drivers of en route mortality for salmon in smaller coastal watersheds, and climate impacts may differ across watersheds and locally adapted salmon populations. To understand the effects of climate on the survival of coastal sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka; hísn in Haíɫzaqv), we tagged 1785 individual fish with passive integrated transponders across four migration seasons in the Koeye River—a low-elevation watershed in coastal British Columbia—and tracked them during their relatively short migration (∼13 km) from river entry to spawning grounds. Overall, 64.7% of sockeye survived to enter the spawning grounds, and survival decreased rapidly when water temperatures exceeded 15 °C. The best-fitting model included an interaction between river flow and temperature, such that temperature effects were worse when flows were low, and river entry ceased at the lowest flows. Results revealed temperature-mediated mortality and migration delays from low water that may synergistically reduce survival among sockeye salmon returning to coastal watersheds.

Population genomics for wildlife conservation and management

Biodiversity is under threat worldwide. Over the past decade, the field of population genomics has developed across nonmodel organisms, and the results of this research have begun to be applied in conservation and management of wildlife species. Genomics tools can provide precise estimates of basic features of wildlife populations, such as effective population size, inbreeding, demographic history and population structure, that are critical for conservation efforts. Moreover, population genomics studies can identify particular genetic loci and variants responsible for inbreeding depression or adaptation to changing environments, allowing for conservation efforts to estimate the capacity of populations to evolve and adapt in response to environmental change and to manage for adaptive variation. While connections from basic research to applied wildlife conservation have been slow to develop, these connections are increasingly strengthening. Here we review the primary areas in which population genomics approaches can be applied to wildlife conservation and management, highlight examples of how they have been used, and provide recommendations for building on the progress that has been made in this field.

Documentation of en route mortality of summer chum salmon in the Koyukuk River, Alaska and its potential linkage to the heatwave of 2019

This paper documents a mass en route mortality event of adult summer chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) returning to the Koyukuk River, Alaska in the Yukon River basin. In response to reports from local communities, a small team of researchers (including the author) surveyed ca. 275 km of river on July 26 and 27, 2019 and counted 1,364 dead salmon. Although the total magnitude of mortality is unknown, counts from the survey certainly represent only a small fraction of the true number of fish that died. We sampled 73 carcasses to confirm death occurred prematurely prior to complete maturation and spawning, and to quantify sex and length. Visual inspection revealed a substantial fraction exhibited patterns of fungal growth consistent with secondary infections of skin lesions caused by the ubiquitous natural bacterial pathogen Flavobacterium columnare. Water temperatures during the survey averaged 17.1°C and the water was approximately 85% saturated with oxygen (ca. 8.5 mg/L), which likely contributed to the stress for upstream migrants. Evidence suggests size-selective en route mortality as female migrants that died were 2% and male migrants 5% shorter than individuals that survived to their spawning grounds on Henshaw Creek. This translates to very strong estimates of natural selection using standardized selection differentials, yet it is unclear whether selection acts on body size directly or indirectly through correlated phenotypic traits such as run timing. The mortality event likely underpins the below average returns of summer chum salmon to the Koyukuk River in 2019, suggesting an impact on spawner abundance. The future consequences of this, or potentially increasingly frequent, en route mortality events for population productivity and the extent to which genetic adaptation or adaptive phenotypic plasticity of migration behavior may facilitate persistence of these populations is unknown.

Snake River sockeye and Chinook salmon in a changing climate: Implications for upstream migration survival during recent extreme and future climates

In 2015, the Pacific marine heat wave, low river flows, and record high water temperatures in the Columbia River Basin contributed to a near-complete failure of the adult migration of endangered Snake River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka, NOAA Fisheries 2016). These extreme weather events may become the new normal due to anthropogenic climate change, with catastrophic consequences for endangered species. Existing anthropogenic pressures may amplify vulnerability to climate change, but these potential synergies have rarely been quantified. We examined factors affecting survival of endangered sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and threatened Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) as they migrated upstream through eight dams and reservoirs to spawning areas in the Snake River Basin. Our extensive database included histories of 17,279 individual fish that migrated since 2004. A comparison between conditions in 2015 and daily temperatures and flows in a regulated basin forced by output from global climate models showed that 2015 did have many characteristics of projected future mean conditions. To evaluate potential salmon responses, we modeled migration timing and apparent survival under historical and future climate scenarios (2040s). For Chinook salmon, adult survival from the first dam encountered to spawning grounds dropped by 4-15%, depending on the climate scenario. For sockeye, survival dropped by ~80% from their already low levels. Through sensitivity analyses, we observed that the adult sockeye migration would need to shift more than 2 weeks earlier than predicted to maintain survival rates typical of those seen during 2008-2017. Overall, the greater impacts of climate change on adult sockeye compared with adult Chinook salmon reflected differences in life history and environmental sensitivities, which were compounded for sockeye by larger effect sizes from other anthropogenic factors. Compared with Chinook, sockeye was more negatively affected by a history of juvenile transportation and by similar temperatures and flows. The largest changes in temperature and flow were projected to be upstream from the hydrosystem, where direct mitigation through hydrosystem management is not an option. Unfortunately, Snake River sockeye have likely lost much of their adaptive capacity with the loss of the wild population. Further work exploring habitat restoration or additional mitigation actions is urgently needed.

Glacier Retreat and Pacific Salmon

Glaciers have shaped past and present habitats for Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) in North America. During the last glacial maximum, approximately 45% of the current North American range of Pacific salmon was covered in ice. Currently, most salmon habitat occurs in watersheds in which glacier ice is present and retreating. This synthesis examines the multiple ways that glacier retreat can influence aquatic ecosystems through the lens of Pacific salmon life cycles. We predict that the coming decades will result in areas in which salmon populations will be challenged by diminished water flows and elevated water temperatures, areas in which salmon productivity will be enhanced as downstream habitat suitability increases, and areas in which new river and lake habitat will be formed that can be colonized by anadromous salmon. Effective conservation and management of salmon habitat and populations should consider the impacts of glacier retreat and other sources of ecosystem change.

Resurgence of an apex marine predator and the decline in prey body size

Recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide have heightened concerns for their potential impacts on global fisheries. While predator-induced reductions in prey abundance have been documented, trait-mediated changes in life-history characteristics are rarely considered. Here we provide a striking example of the impact of a resurging apex marine predator on a commercially important fish species through changes in prey life-history traits. We find that widespread declines in the body size of Chinook salmon over the past 50 y can be explained by intensified predation by growing populations of resident killer whales that selectively feed on large Chinook salmon, thus revealing a potential conflict between salmon fisheries and marine mammal conservation objectives.

In light of recent recoveries of marine mammal populations worldwide and heightened concern about their impacts on marine food webs and global fisheries, it has become increasingly important to understand the potential impacts of large marine mammal predators on prey populations and their life-history traits. In coastal waters of the northeast Pacific Ocean, marine mammals have increased in abundance over the past 40 to 50 y, including fish-eating killer whales that feed primarily on Chinook salmon. Chinook salmon, a species of high cultural and economic value, have exhibited marked declines in average size and age throughout most of their North American range. This raises the question of whether size-selective predation by marine mammals is generating these trends in life-history characteristics. Here we show that increased predation since the 1970s, but not fishery selection alone, can explain the changes in age and size structure observed for Chinook salmon populations along the west coast of North America. Simulations suggest that the decline in mean size results from the selective removal of large fish and an evolutionary shift toward faster growth and earlier maturation caused by selection. Our conclusion that intensifying predation by fish-eating killer whales contributes to the continuing decline in Chinook salmon body size points to conflicting management and conservation objectives for these two iconic species.

Conservation and Management of Salmon in the Age of Genomics

Salmon were among the first nonmodel species for which systematic population genetic studies of natural populations were conducted, often to support management and conservation. The genomics revolution has improved our understanding of the evolutionary ecology of salmon in two major ways: (a) Large increases in the numbers of genetic markers (from dozens to 10⁴-10⁶) provide greater power for traditional analyses, such as the delineation of population structure, hybridization, and population assignment, and (b) qualitatively new insights that were not possible with traditional genetic methods can be achieved by leveraging detailed information about the structure and function of the genome. Studies of the first type have been more common to date, largely because it has taken time for the necessary tools to be developed to fully understand the complex salmon genome. We expect that the next decade will witness many new studies that take full advantage of salmonid genomic resources.

Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Co-inheritance of sea age at maturity and iteroparity in the Atlantic salmon vgll3 genomic region

Co-inheritance in life-history traits may result in unpredictable evolutionary trajectories if not accounted for in life-history models. Iteroparity (the reproductive strategy of reproducing more than once) in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) is a fitness trait with substantial variation within and among populations. In the Teno River in northern Europe, iteroparous individuals constitute an important component of many populations and have experienced a sharp increase in abundance in the last 20 years, partly overlapping with a general decrease in age structure. The physiological basis of iteroparity bears similarities to that of age at first maturity, another life-history trait with substantial fitness effects in salmon. Sea age at maturity in Atlantic salmon is controlled by a major locus around the vgll3 gene, and we used this opportunity demonstrate that these two traits are co-inherited around this genome region. The odds ratio of survival until second reproduction was up to 2.4 (1.8-3.5 90% CI) times higher for fish with the early-maturing vgll3 genotype (EE) compared to fish with the late-maturing genotype (LL). The L allele was dominant in individuals remaining only one year at sea before maturation, but the dominance was reversed, with the E allele being dominant in individuals maturing after two or more years at sea. Post hoc analysis indicated that iteroparous fish with the EE genotype had accelerated growth prior to first reproduction compared to first-time spawners, across all age groups, whereas this effect was not detected in fish with the LL genotype. These results broaden the functional link around the vgll3 genome region and help us understand constraints in the evolution of life-history variation in salmon. Our results further highlight the need to account for genetic correlations between fitness traits when predicting demographic changes in changing environments.

Thermal exposure of adult Chinook salmon and steelhead: Diverse behavioral strategies in a large and warming river system

Rising river temperatures in western North America have increased the energetic costs of migration and the risk of premature mortality in many Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) populations. Predicting and managing risks for these populations requires data on acute and cumulative thermal exposure, the spatio-temporal distribution of adverse conditions, and the potentially mitigating effects of cool-water refuges. In this study, we paired radiotelemetry with archival temperature loggers to construct continuous, spatially-explicit thermal histories for 212 adult Chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) and 200 adult steelhead (O. mykiss). The fish amassed ~500,000 temperature records (30-min intervals) while migrating through 470 kilometers of the Columbia and Snake rivers en route to spawning sites in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Spring- and most summer-run Chinook salmon migrated before river temperatures reached annual highs; their body temperatures closely matched ambient temperatures and most had thermal maxima in the lower Snake River. In contrast, many individual fall-run Chinook salmon and most steelhead had maxima near thermal tolerance limits (20–22 °C) in the lower Columbia River. High temperatures elicited extensive use of thermal refuges near tributary confluences, where body temperatures were ~2–10 °C cooler than the adjacent migration corridor. Many steelhead used refuges for weeks or more whereas salmon use was typically hours to days, reflecting differences in spawn timing. Almost no refuge use was detected in a ~260-km reach where a thermal migration barrier may more frequently develop in future warmer years. Within population, cumulative thermal exposure was strongly positively correlated (0.88 ≤ r ≤ 0.98) with migration duration and inconsistently associated (-0.28 ≤ r ≤ 0.09) with migration date. All four populations have likely experienced historically high mean and maximum temperatures in recent years. Expected responses include population-specific shifts in migration phenology, increased reliance on patchily-distributed thermal refuges, and natural selection favoring temperature-tolerant phenotypes.

Simulated juvenile salmon growth and phenology respond to altered thermal regimes and stream network shape

It is generally accepted that climate change will stress coldwater species like Pacific salmon. However, it is unclear what aspect of altered thermal regimes (e.g., warmer winters, springs, summers, or increased variability) will have the greatest effect, and what role the spatial properties of river networks play. Thermally diverse habitats may afford protection from climate change by providing opportunities for aquatic organisms to find and use habitats with optimal conditions for growth. We hypothesized that climate-altered thermal regimes will change growth and timing of life history events such as emergence or migration but that changes will be moderated in topologically complex stream networks where opportunities to thermoregulate are more readily available to mobile animals. Because climate change effects on populations are spatially variable and contingent upon physiological optima, assessments of risk must take a spatially explicit approach. We developed a spatially-structured individual based model for Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in which movement decisions and growth were governed by water temperature and conspecific density. We evaluated growth and phenology (timing of egg emergence and smolting) under a variety of thermal regimes (each having a different minimum, rate of warming, maximum, and variability) and in three network shapes of increasing spatial complexity. Across networks, fish generally grew faster and were capable of smolting earlier in warmer scenarios where water temperatures experienced by fish were closer to optimal; however, growth decreased for some fish. We found that salmon size and smolt date responded more strongly to warmer springs and summers than to warmer winters or increased variability. Fish in the least complex network grew faster and were ready to smolt earlier than fish in the more spatially complex network shapes in the contemporary thermal regime; patterns were similar but less clear in warmer thermal regimes. Our results demonstrate that network topology may influence how fish respond to thermal landscapes, and this information will be useful for incorporating a spatiotemporal context into conservation decisions that promote long-term viability of salmon in a changing climate.

Sperm in hot water: direct and indirect thermal challenges interact to impact on brown trout sperm quality

Climate change alters the thermal habitat of aquatic species on a global scale, generating novel environmental challenges during all life stages, including reproduction. Changes in water temperature profoundly influence the performance of ectothermic aquatic organisms. This is an especially crucial issue for migratory fish, because they traverse multiple environments in order to reproduce. In externally fertilizing migratory fish, gametes are affected by water temperature indirectly, within the reproductive organ in which they are produced during migration, as well as directly, upon release into the surrounding medium at the spawning grounds. Both direct (after release) and indirect (during production) thermal impacts on gamete quality have been investigated, but never in conjunction. Here, we assessed the cumulative influence of temperature on brown trout, Salmo trutta, sperm quality during sperm production (male acclimation temperature) as well as upon release (sperm activation water temperature) on two consecutive dates during the brown trout spawning season. Early in the season, warm acclimation of males reduced their fertilization probability (lower sperm velocity) when compared with cold-acclimated males, especially when the activation water temperature was also increased beyond the thermal optimum (resulting in a lower proportion of motile sperm with lower velocity). Later in the season, sperm quality was unaffected by acclimation temperature and thermal sensitivity of sperm was reduced. These results give novel insights into the complex impacts of climate change on fish sperm, with implications for the reproduction and management of hatchery and wild trout populations in future climate scenarios.

Evosystem Services: Rapid Evolution and the Provision of Ecosystem Services

Evolution is recognized as the source of all organisms, and hence many ecosystem services. However, the role that contemporary evolution might play in maintaining and enhancing specific ecosystem services has largely been overlooked. Recent advances at the interface of ecology and evolution have demonstrated how contemporary evolution can shape ecological communities and ecosystem functions. We propose a definition and quantitative criteria to study how rapid evolution affects ecosystem services (here termed contemporary evosystem services) and present plausible scenarios where such services might exist. We advocate for the direct measurement of contemporary evosystem services to improve understanding of how changing environments will alter resource availability and human well-being, and highlight the potential utility of managing rapid evolution for future ecosystem services.

Capture severity, infectious disease processes and sex influence post-release mortality of sockeye salmon bycatch

Bycatch is a common occurrence in heavily fished areas such as the Fraser River, British Columbia, where fisheries target returning adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) en route to spawning grounds. The extent to which these encounters reduce fish survival through injury and physiological impairment depends on multiple factors including capture severity, river temperature and infectious agents. In an effort to characterize the mechanisms of post-release mortality and address fishery and managerial concerns regarding specific regulations, wild-caught Early Stuart sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were exposed to either mild (20 s) or severe (20 min) gillnet entanglement and then held at ecologically relevant temperatures throughout their period of river migration (mid-late July) and spawning (early August). Individuals were biopsy sampled immediately after entanglement and at death to measure indicators of stress and immunity, and the infection intensity of 44 potential pathogens. Biopsy alone increased mortality (males: 33%, females: 60%) when compared with non-biopsied controls (males: 7%, females: 15%), indicating high sensitivity to any handling during river migration, especially among females. Mortality did not occur until 5-10 days after entanglement, with severe entanglement resulting in the greatest mortality (males: 62%, females: 90%), followed by mild entanglement (males: 44%, females: 70%). Infection intensities of Flavobacterium psychrophilum and Ceratonova shasta measured at death were greater in fish that died sooner. Physiological indicators of host stress and immunity also differed depending on longevity, and indicated anaerobic metabolism, osmoregulatory failure and altered immune gene regulation in premature mortalities. Together, these results implicate latent effects of entanglement, especially among females, resulting in mortality days or weeks after release. Although any entanglement is potentially detrimental, reducing entanglement durations can improve post-release survival.

Major histocompatibility complex diversity is positively associated with stream water temperatures in proximate populations of sockeye salmon

Local adaptation to heterogeneous environments generates population diversity within species, significantly increasing ecosystem stability and flows of ecosystem services. However, few studies have isolated the specific mechanisms that create and maintain this diversity. Here, we examined the relationship between water temperature in streams used for spawning and genetic diversity at a gene involved in immune function [the major histocompatibility complex (MHC)] in 14 populations of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) sampled across the Wood River basin in south-western Alaska. The largest influence on MHC diversity was lake basin, but we also found a significant positive correlation between average water temperature and MHC diversity. This positive relationship between temperature and MHC diversity appears to have been produced by natural selection at very local scales rather than neutral processes, as no correlation was observed between temperature and genetic diversity at 90 neutral markers. Additionally, no significant relationship was observed between temperature variability and MHC diversity. Although lake basin was the largest driver of differences in MHC diversity, our results also demonstrate that fine-scale differences in water temperature may generate variable selection regimes in populations that spawn in habitats separated by as little as 1 km. Additionally, our results indicated that some populations may be reaching a maximum level of MHC diversity. We postulate that salmon from populations in warm streams may delay spawning until late summer to avoid thermal stress as well as the elevated levels of pathogen prevalence and virulence associated with warm temperatures earlier in the summer.

Evaluation of the Copepod Eurytemora affinis Life History Response to Temperature and Salinity Increases

Anissa Souissi, Sami Souissi, and Jiang-Shiou Hwang (2016) Zooplankton and particularly copepods have a key role in the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. However, the mechanisms involved in the physiological responses of copepods to temperature and salinity increases are little understood, and the role of plasticity involved in facing environmental changes has rarely been demonstrated experimentally. In this study, the copepod Eurytemora affinis, widely distributed in the northern hemisphere, was selected as a biological model to test the effect of a 4°C temperature increase at two salinities. In addition to the optimal salinity (15 psu), a stressful condition of salinity 25 psu was also verified. Copepods from the Seine estuary were acclimated in laboratory to their optimal temperature of 15°C at salinity 15 PSU and then they were acclimated during several generations to their upper thermal limit (20°C) at two salinities (15 and 25 PSU), after which the temperature was raised by 4°C. This experiment revealed that after long-term acclimation and under unlimited food conditions, E. affinis maintained good fitness at 20°C and at both optimal and stressful salinities. After temperature increase to 24°C, the population remained viable but copepod size was significantly decreased as well as female's fecundity. The decrease of fitness was accentuated under the additional stressful condition of salinity 25 psu. This study demonstrated that the mechanisms of response to temperature and salinity increases (i.e. global warming) are complex, and should be investigated through experimental studies that consider acclimation and multigenerational factors. Our results will enrich the development of Individual-Based Models (IBMs) capable to test the role of microevolution and plasticity of E. affinis in the framework of future climate scenarios.

Conservation physiology of animal migration

Migration is a widespread phenomenon among many taxa. This complex behaviour enables animals to exploit many temporally productive and spatially discrete habitats to accrue various fitness benefits (e.g. growth, reproduction, predator avoidance). Human activities and global environmental change represent potential threats to migrating animals (from individuals to species), and research is underway to understand mechanisms that control migration and how migration responds to modern challenges. Focusing on behavioural and physiological aspects of migration can help to provide better understanding, management and conservation of migratory populations. Here, we highlight different physiological, behavioural and biomechanical aspects of animal migration that will help us to understand how migratory animals interact with current and future anthropogenic threats. We are in the early stages of a changing planet, and our understanding of how physiology is linked to the persistence of migratory animals is still developing; therefore, we regard the following questions as being central to the conservation physiology of animal migrations. Will climate change influence the energetic costs of migration? Will shifting temperatures change the annual clocks of migrating animals? Will anthropogenic influences have an effect on orientation during migration? Will increased anthropogenic alteration of migration stopover sites/migration corridors affect the stress physiology of migrating animals? Can physiological knowledge be used to identify strategies for facilitating the movement of animals? Our synthesis reveals that given the inherent challenges of migration, additional stressors derived from altered environments (e.g. climate change, physical habitat alteration, light pollution) or interaction with human infrastructure (e.g. wind or hydrokinetic turbines, dams) or activities (e.g. fisheries) could lead to long-term changes to migratory phenotypes. However, uncertainty remains because of the complexity of biological systems, the inherently dynamic nature of the environment and the scale at which many migrations occur and associated threats operate, necessitating improved integration of physiological approaches to the conservation of migratory animals.

Aerobic scope increases throughout an ecologically relevant temperature range in coho salmon

Aerobic scope (AS) has been proposed as a functional measurement that can be used to make predictions about the thermal niche of aquatic ectotherms and hence potential fitness outcomes under future warming scenarios. Some salmonid species and populations, for example, have been reported to exhibit different thermal profiles for their AS curves such that AS peaks around the modal river temperature encountered during the upriver spawning migration, suggesting species- and population-level adaptations to river temperature regimes. Interestingly, some other salmonid species and populations have been reported to exhibit AS curves that maintain an upwards trajectory throughout the ecologically-relevant temperature range rather than peaking at a modal temperature. To shed further light on this apparent dichotomy, we used adult coho salmon (Onchorhynchus kisutch) to test the prediction that peak AS coincides with population-specific, historically experienced river temperatures. We assessed AS at 10°C and 15°C, which represent a typical river migration temperature and the upper limit of the historically experienced temperature range, respectively. We also examined published data on AS in juvenile coho salmon in relation to new temperature data measured from their freshwater rearing environments. In both cases, AS was either maintained or increased modestly throughout the range of ecologically relevant temperatures. In light of existing evidence and the new data presented here, we suggest that when attempting to understand thermal optima for Pacific salmon and other species across life stages, AS is a useful metric of oxygen transport capacity but other thermally-sensitive physiological indices of performance and fitness should be considered in concert.

The potential impacts of migratory difficulty, including warmer waters and altered flow conditions, on the reproductive success of salmonid fishes

Climate change and urbanisation of watercourses affect water temperatures and current flow velocities in river systems on a global scale. This represents a particularly critical issue for migratory fish species with complex life histories that use rivers to reproduce. Salmonids are migratory keystone species that provide substantial economical value to ecosystems and human societies. Consequently, a comprehensive understanding of the effects of environmental stressors on their reproductive success is critical in order to ensure their continued abundance during future climatic change. Salmonids are capital breeders, relying entirely on endogenous energy stores to fuel return migration to their natal spawning sites and reproduction upon arrival. Metabolic rates and cost of transport en-route increase with temperature and at extreme temperatures, swimming is increasingly fuelled anaerobically, resulting in an oxygen debt and reduced capacity to recover from exhaustive exercise. Thermally challenged salmonids also produce less viable gametes, which themselves are affected by water temperature after release. Passage through hydrological barriers and temperature changes both affect energy expenditure. As a result, important energetic tradeoffs emerge between extra energy used during migration and that available for other facets of the reproductive cycle, such as reproductive competition and gamete production. However, studies identifying these tradeoffs are extremely sparse. This review focuses on the specific locomotor responses of salmonids to thermal and hydrological challenges, identifying gaps in our knowledge and highlighting the potential implications for key aspects of their reproduction.

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco-evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco-evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco-evo PVA using individual-based models with individual-level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype-phenotype mapping to model emergent population-level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco-evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.

Observable impairments predict mortality of captured and released sockeye salmon at various temperatures

Migrating adult sockeye salmon frequently encounter commercial and recreational fishing gear, from which they may be landed, escape or be intentionally released. In this experiment, migratory adult sockeye salmon were exposed to simulated capture-release in fresh water, including 3 min of exhaustive exercise and 60 s of air exposure at three ecologically relevant water temperatures (13, 16 and 19°C) to understand how thermal and capture-release stressors may interact to increase mortality risk. Water temperature and sex were the factors that best predicted 24 and 48 h survival, with females in the warmest temperature group experiencing the greatest mortality. Capture-release treatment including air exposure was associated with equilibrium loss and depressed ventilation rates at release; the probability of fish surviving for 24 h after simulated capture-release was >50% if the duration of equilibrium loss was <2 min or ventilation frequency was >1 breath s(-1). Higher haematocrit and plasma lactate as well as lower mean cell haemoglobin concentration and plasma sodium and chloride 30 min after simulated capture-release were also significant predictors of 24 h survival. Together, the results demonstrate that simple observations that are consistent with physiological disturbance can be used as predictors for post-release short-term survival for sockeye salmon. The markedly higher post-stressor mortality observed in females demonstrates that managers should consider sex-specific variation in response to different fisheries interactions, particularly in the face of climate change.

Relative contributions of neutral and non-neutral genetic differentiation to inform conservation of steelhead trout across highly variable landscapes

Mounting evidence of climatic effects on riverine environments and adaptive responses of fishes have elicited growing conservation concerns. Measures to rectify population declines include assessment of local extinction risk, population ecology, viability, and genetic differentiation. While conservation planning has been largely informed by neutral genetic structure, there has been a dearth of critical information regarding the role of non-neutral or functional genetic variation. We evaluated genetic variation among steelhead trout of the Columbia River Basin, which supports diverse populations distributed among dynamic landscapes. We categorized 188 SNP loci as either putatively neutral or candidates for divergent selection (non-neutral) using a multitest association approach. Neutral variation distinguished lineages and defined broad-scale population structure consistent with previous studies, but fine-scale resolution was also detected at levels not previously observed. Within distinct coastal and inland lineages, we identified nine and 22 candidate loci commonly associated with precipitation or temperature variables and putatively under divergent selection. Observed patterns of non-neutral variation suggest overall climate is likely to shape local adaptation (e.g., potential rapid evolution) of steelhead trout in the Columbia River region. Broad geographic patterns of neutral and non-neutral variation demonstrated here can be used to accommodate priorities for regional management and inform long-term conservation of this species.

Basin-scale phenology and effects of climate variability on global timing of initial seaward migration of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Migrations between different habitats are key events in the lives of many organisms. Such movements involve annually recurring travel over long distances usually triggered by seasonal changes in the environment. Often, the migration is associated with travel to or from reproduction areas to regions of growth. Young anadromous Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) emigrate from freshwater nursery areas during spring and early summer to feed and grow in the North Atlantic Ocean. The transition from the freshwater ('parr') stage to the migratory stage where they descend streams and enter salt water ('smolt') is characterized by morphological, physiological and behavioural changes where the timing of this parr-smolt transition is cued by photoperiod and water temperature. Environmental conditions in the freshwater habitat control the downstream migration and contribute to within- and among-river variation in migratory timing. Moreover, the timing of the freshwater emigration has likely evolved to meet environmental conditions in the ocean as these affect growth and survival of the post-smolts. Using generalized additive mixed-effects modelling, we analysed spatio-temporal variations in the dates of downstream smolt migration in 67 rivers throughout the North Atlantic during the last five decades and found that migrations were earlier in populations in the east than the west. After accounting for this spatial effect, the initiation of the downstream migration among rivers was positively associated with freshwater temperatures, up to about 10 °C and levelling off at higher values, and with sea-surface temperatures. Earlier migration occurred when river discharge levels were low but increasing. On average, the initiation of the smolt seaward migration has occurred 2.5 days earlier per decade throughout the basin of the North Atlantic. This shift in phenology matches changes in air, river, and ocean temperatures, suggesting that Atlantic salmon emigration is responding to the current global climate changes.

Natural variation and the capacity to adapt to ocean acidification in the keystone sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

A rapidly growing body of literature documents the potential negative effects of CO2 -driven ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms. However, nearly all this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, neglecting the role of adaptation. Rapid evolution can alter demographic responses to environmental change, ultimately affecting the likelihood of population persistence, but the capacity for adaptation will differ among populations and species. Here, we measure the capacity of the ecologically important purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to adapt to OA, using a breeding experiment to estimate additive genetic variance for larval size (an important component of fitness) under future high-pCO2 /low-pH conditions. Although larvae reared under future conditions were smaller than those reared under present-day conditions, we show that there is also abundant genetic variation for body size under elevated pCO2 , indicating that this trait can evolve. The observed heritability of size was 0.40 ± 0.32 (95% CI) under low pCO2 , and 0.50 ± 0.30 under high-pCO2 conditions. Accounting for the observed genetic variation in models of future larval size and demographic rates substantially alters projections of performance for this species in the future ocean. Importantly, our model shows that after incorporating the effects of adaptation, the OA-driven decrease in population growth rate is up to 50% smaller, than that predicted by the 'no-adaptation' scenario. Adults used in the experiment were collected from two sites on the coast of the Northeast Pacific that are characterized by different pH regimes, as measured by autonomous sensors. Comparing results between sites, we also found subtle differences in larval size under high-pCO2 rearing conditions, consistent with local adaptation to carbonate chemistry in the field. These results suggest that spatially varying selection may help to maintain genetic variation necessary for adaptation to future OA.

Impacts of climate change on avian populations

This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the 'population robustness to climate change.' The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.

Provenance matters: thermal reaction norms for embryo survival among sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka populations

Differences in thermal tolerance during embryonic development in Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka were examined among nine populations in a controlled common-garden incubation experiment. Forcing embryonic development at an extreme temperature (relative to current values) of 16° C, representing a future climate change scenario, significantly reduced survival compared to the more ecologically moderate temperature of 10° C (55% v. 93%). Survival at 14° C was intermediate between the other two temperatures (85%). More importantly, this survival response varied by provenance within and between temperature treatments. Thermal reaction norms showed an interacting response of genotype and environment (temperature), suggesting that populations of O. nerka may have adapted differentially to elevated temperatures during incubation and early development. Moreover, populations that historically experience warmer incubation temperatures at early development displayed a higher tolerance for warm temperatures. In contrast, thermal tolerance does not appear to transcend life stages as adult migration temperatures were not related to embryo thermal tolerance. The intra-population variation implies potential for thermal tolerance at the species level. The differential inter-population variation in thermal tolerance that was observed suggests, however, limited adaptive potential to thermal shifts for some populations. This infers that the intergenerational effects of increasing water temperatures may affect populations differentially, and that such thermally mediated adaptive selection may drive population, and therefore species, persistence.

Contrasting effects of climate change in continental vs. oceanic environments on population persistence and microevolution of Atlantic salmon

Facing climate change (CC), species are prone to multiple modifications in their environment that can lead to extinction, migration or adaptation. Identifying the role and interplay of different potential stressors becomes a key question. Anadromous fishes will be exposed to both river and oceanic habitat changes. For Atlantic salmon, the river water temperature, river flow and oceanic growth conditions appear as three main stressing factors. They could act on population dynamics or as selective forces on life-history pathways. Using an individual-based demo-genetic model, we assessed the effects of these factors (1) to compare risks of extinction resulting from CC in river and ocean, and (2) to assess CC effects on life-history pathways including the evolution of underlying genetic control of phenotypic plasticity. We focused on Atlantic salmon populations from Southern Europe for a time horizon of three decades. We showed that CC in river alone should not lead to extinction of Southern European salmon populations. In contrast, the reduced oceanic growth appeared as a significant threat for population persistence. An increase in river flow amplitude increased the risk of local extinction in synergy with the oceanic effects, but river temperature rise reduced this risk. In terms of life-history modifications, the reduced oceanic growth increased the age of return of individuals through plastic and genetic responses. The river temperature rise increased the proportion of sexually mature parr, but the genetic evolution of the maturation threshold lowered the maturation rate of male parr. This was identified as a case of environmentally driven plastic response that masked an underlying evolutionary response of plasticity going in the opposite direction. We concluded that to counteract oceanic effects, river flow management represented the sole potential force to reduce the extinction probability of Atlantic salmon populations in Southern Europe, although this might not impede changes in migration life history.