Importation and early local transmission of COVID-19 in Brazil, 2020

SARS-CoV-2 shedding, infectivity, and evolution in an immunocompromised adult patient

This study aimed to provide further insight into the evolutionary dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 by analyzing the case of a 40-year-old man who had previously undergone autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation due to a diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. He developed a persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection lasting at least 218 days and did not manifest a humoral immune response to the virus during this follow-up period. Whole-genome sequencing and viral cultures confirmed a persistent infection with a replication-positive virus that had undergone genetic variation for at least 196 days after symptom onset.

Spatiotemporal transmission of SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020-2021 in Pernambuco-Brazil

SARS-CoV-2 virus emerged as a new threat to humans and spread around the world, leaving a large death toll. As of January 2023, Brazil is among the countries with the highest number of registered deaths. Nonpharmacological and pharmacological interventions have been heterogeneously implemented in the country, which, associated with large socioeconomic differences between the country regions, has led to distinct virus spread dynamics. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in the Pernambuco state (Northeast Brazil) throughout the distinct epidemiological scenarios that unfolded in the first 2 years of the pandemic. We generated a total of 1,389 new SARS-CoV-2 genomes from June 2020 to August 2021. This sampling captured the arrival, communitary transmission, and the circulation of the B1.1, B.1.1.28, and B.1.1.33 lineages; the emergence of the former variant of interest P.2; and the emergence and fast replacement of all previous variants by the more transmissible variant of concern P.1 (Gamma). Based on the incidence and lineage spread pattern, we observed an East-to-West to inner state pattern of transmission, which is in agreement with the transmission of more populous metropolitan areas to medium- and small-size country-side cities in the state. Such transmission patterns may be partially explained by the main routes of traffic across municipalities in the state. Our results highlight that the fine-grained intrastate analysis of lineages and incidence spread can provide actionable insights for planning future nonpharmacological intervention for air-borne transmissible human pathogens.IMPORTANCEDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, Brazil was one of the most affected countries, mainly due its continental-size, socioeconomic differences among regions, and heterogeneous implementation of intervention methods. In order to investigate SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in the state of Pernambuco, we conducted a spatiotemporal dispersion study, covering the period from June 2020 to August 2021, to comprehend the dynamics of viral transmission during the first 2 years of the pandemic. Throughout this study, we were able to track three significant epidemiological waves of transmission caused by B1.1, B.1.1.28, B.1.1.33, P.2, and P.1 lineages. These analyses provided valuable insights into the evolution of the epidemiological landscape, contributing to a deeper understanding of the dynamics of virus transmission during the early years of the pandemic in the state of Pernambuco.

Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents.

METHOD

An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters.

RESULTS

Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15-19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI95%[MPV]: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI95%[MPV]: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region.

CONCLUSION

The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.

Understanding SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein clusters and their impact on immunity of the population from Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil

SARS-CoV-2 genome underwent mutations since it started circulating within the human population. The aim of this study was to understand the fluctuation of the spike clusters concomitant to the population immunity either due to natural infection and/or vaccination in a state of Brazil that had both high rate of natural infection and vaccination coverage. A total of 1725 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, were retrieved from GISAID and subjected to cluster analysis. Immunoinformatics were used to predict T- and B-cell epitopes, followed by simulation to estimate either pro- or anti-inflammatory responses and to correlate with circulating variants. From March 2020 to June 2022, the state of Rio Grande do Norte reported 579,931 COVID-19 cases with a 1.4% fatality rate across the three major waves: May-Sept 2020, Feb-Aug 2021, and Jan-Mar 2022. Cluster 0 variants (wild type strain, Zeta) were prevalent in the first wave and Delta (AY.*), which circulated in Brazil in the latter half of 2021, featuring fewer unique epitopes. Cluster 1 (Gamma (P.1 + P.1.*)) dominated the first half of 2021. Late 2021 had two new clusters, Cluster 2 (Omicron, (B.1.1.529 + BA.*)), and Cluster 3 (BA.*) with the most unique epitopes, in addition to Cluster 4 (Delta sub lineages) which emerged in the second half of 2021 with fewer unique epitopes. Cluster 1 epitopes showed a high pro-inflammatory propensity, while others exhibited a balanced cytokine induction. The clustering method effectively identified Spike groups that may contribute to immune evasion and clinical presentation, and explain in part the clinical outcome.

The increase in SARS-CoV-2 lineages during 2020-2022 in a state in the Brazilian Northeast is associated with a number of cases

SARS-CoV-2 has caused a high number of deaths in several countries. In Brazil, there were 37 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 700,000 deaths caused by the disease. The population size and heterogeneity of the Brazilian population should be considered in epidemiological surveillance due to the varied tropism of the virus. As such, municipalities and states must be factored in for their unique specificities, such as socioeconomic conditions and population distribution. Here, we investigate the spatiotemporal dispersion of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages and their dynamics in each microregion from Sergipe state, northeastern Brazil, in the first 3 years of the pandemic. We analyzed 586 genomes sequenced between March 2020 and November 2022 extracted from the GISAID database. Phylogenetic analyses were carried out for each data set to reconstruct evolutionary history. Finally, the existence of a correlation between the number of lineages and infection cases by SARS-CoV-2 was evaluated. Aracaju, the largest city in northeastern Brazil, had the highest number of samples sequenced. This represented 54.6% (320) of the genomes, and consequently, the largest number of lineages identified. Studies also analyzed the relationship between mean lineage distributions and mean monthly infections, daily cases, daily deaths, and hospitalizations of vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. For this, a correlation matrix was created. Results revealed that the increase in the average number of SARS-CoV-2 variants was related to the average number of SARS-CoV-2 cases in both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals. Thus, our data indicate that it is necessary to maintain epidemiological surveillance, especially in capital cities, since they have a high rate of circulation of resident and non-resident inhabitants, which contributes to the dynamics of the virus.

Rural populations facilitated early SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission in Missouri, USA

In the United States, rural populations comprise 60 million individuals and suffered from high COVID-19 disease burdens. Despite this, surveillance efforts are biased toward urban centers. Consequently, how rurally circulating SARS-CoV-2 viruses contribute toward emerging variants remains poorly understood. In this study, we aim to investigate the role of rural communities in the evolution and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the early pandemic. We collected 544 urban and 435 rural COVID-19-positive respiratory specimens from an overall vaccine-naïve population in Southwest Missouri between July and December 2020. Genomic analyses revealed 53 SARS-CoV-2 Pango lineages in our study samples, with 14 of these lineages identified only in rural samples. Phylodynamic analyses showed that frequent bi-directional diffusions occurred between rural and urban communities in Southwest Missouri, and that four out of seven Missouri rural-origin lineages spread globally. Further analyses revealed that the nucleocapsid protein (N):R203K/G204R paired substitutions, which were detected disproportionately across multiple Pango lineages, were more associated with urban than rural sequences. Positive selection was detected at N:204 among rural samples but was not evident in urban samples, suggesting that viruses may encounter distinct selection pressures in rural versus urban communities. This study demonstrates that rural communities may be a crucial source of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and transmission, highlighting the need to expand surveillance and resources to rural populations for COVID-19 mitigation.

Genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 from Uttar Pradesh, India

The various strains and mutations of SARS-CoV-2 have been tracked using several forms of genomic classification systems. The present study reports high-throughput sequencing and analysis of 99 SARS-CoV-2 specimens from Western Uttar Pradesh using sequences obtained from the GISAID database, followed by phylogeny and clade classification. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that Omicron lineages BA-2-like (55.55%) followed by Delta lineage-B.1.617.2 (45.5%) were predominantly circulating in this area Signature substitution at positions S: N501Y, S: D614G, S: T478K, S: K417N, S: E484A, S: P681H, and S: S477N were commonly detected in the Omicron variant-BA-2-like, however S: D614G, S: L452R, S: P681R and S: D950N were confined to Delta variant-B.1.617.2. We have also identified three escape variants in the S gene at codon position 19 (T19I/R), 484 (E484A/Q), and 681 (P681R/H) during the fourth and fifth waves in India. Based on the phylogenetic diversification studies and similar changes in other lineages, our analysis revealed indications of convergent evolution as the virus adjusts to the shifting immunological profile of its human host. To the best of our knowledge, this study is an approach to comprehensively map the circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains from Western Uttar Pradesh using an integrated approach of whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. These findings will be extremely valuable in developing a structured approach toward pandemic preparedness and evidence-based intervention plans in the future.

Early response to COVID-19 in Brazil: The impact of a targeted approach to suspected cases and on epidemiological surveillance efforts

Background

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) entered Brazil before travel restrictions and border closures were imposed. This study reports the characteristics of suspected and confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases among symptomatic international travelers in Brazil and their contacts.

Methods

The REDCap platform developed by the Brazilian Ministry of Health was analyzed to identify and investigate suspected cases of COVID-19 recorded during the period January 1 to March 20, 2020. The impact of Brazil's targeted approach to suspected cases from specific countries on epidemiological surveillance efforts during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic were analyzed.

Results

Based on molecular RT-PCR tests, there were 217 (4.2%) confirmed, 1030 (20.1%) unconfirmed, 722 (14.1%) suspected, and 3157 (61.6%) non-investigated cases among travelers returning from countries included on the alert list for surveillance, as defined by the Ministry of Health. Among the 3372 travelers who went to countries not included on the alert list, there were 66 (2.0%) confirmed, 845 (25.3%) unconfirmed, 521 (15.6%) suspected, and 1914 (57.2%) non-investigated cases. A comparison of the characteristics of confirmed cases returning from alert and non-alert countries did not reveal a statistically significant difference in symptoms. Almost half of the hospitalized travelers with known travel dates and hospitalization status (53.6%) were inbound from countries not included on the alert list, and RT-PCR tests were reported for only 30.5%.

Conclusions

Policies adopted at entry points to contain the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil were not ideal. An analysis of the early response shows that surveillance of travelers, including testing strategies, data standards, and reporting systems, was insufficient.

Dynamics of Early Establishment of SARS-CoV-2 VOC Omicron Lineages in Minas Gerais, Brazil

Brazil is one of the nations most affected by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The introduction and establishment of new virus variants can be related to an increase in cases and fatalities. The emergence of Omicron, the most modified SARS-CoV-2 variant, caused alarm for the public health of Brazil. In this study, we examined the effects of the Omicron introduction in Minas Gerais (MG), the second-most populous state of Brazil. A total of 430 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) samples from November 2021 to June 2022 from Belo Horizonte (BH) city were sequenced. These newly sequenced genomes comprise 72% of all previously available SARS-CoV-2 genomes for the city. Evolutionary analysis of novel viral genomes reveals that a great diversity of Omicron sublineages have circulated in BH, a pattern in-keeping with observations across Brazil more generally. Bayesian phylogeographic reconstructions indicate that this diversity is a product of a large number of international and national importations. As observed previously, São Paulo state is shown as a significant hub for viral spread throughout the country, contributing to around 70% of all viral Omicron introductions detected in MG.

COVID-19 in Latin America: A Snapshot in Time and the Road Ahead

Since its initial detection in Brazil in February 2020, SARS-CoV-2 and the associated COVID-19 pandemic have continued to devastate Latin America. Specific comorbidities, as well as sociodemographic and lifestyle factors that may be more prevalent in underserved areas, have been identified as risk factors for COVID-19 infection or associated adverse outcomes. Dynamics of infections and deaths in Latin America have varied by country and temporally, as has SARS-CoV-2 variant prevalence; however, more recently, the Delta and subsequent Omicron variants have become ubiquitous. Successful pandemic responses have involved robust infection mitigation measures, testing, and smart deployment of healthcare resourcing. While in some Latin American countries up to 90% of the population is fully vaccinated (i.e., 2 doses) against COVID-19, other countries have failed to reach the World Health Organization's 70% target. Continued focus on comprehensive surveillance, strategies to maximize vaccine availability and uptake, and mitigation of collateral damage on other aspects of public health and social services are critical for managing the COVID-19 pandemic. This review summarizes the COVID-19 experience in Latin America, including epidemiology and vaccination. Key learnings and future considerations for the ongoing pandemic response are also discussed.

A traveling SARS-CoV-2 laboratory as part of a pandemic response among vulnerable Brazilian populations

BACKGROUND

Brazil has been dramatically hit by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and is a world leader in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. Additionally, the largest country of Latin America has been a continuous source of SARS-CoV-2 variants and shows extraordinary variability of the pandemic strains probably related to the country´s outstanding position as a Latin American economical and transportation hub. Not all regions of the country show sufficient infrastructure for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and genotyping which can negatively impact the pandemic response.

METHODS

Due to this reason and to disburden the diagnostic system of the inner São Paulo State, the Butantan Institute established the Mobile Laboratory (in Portuguese: LabMovel) for SARS-CoV-2 testing which started a trip of the most important "hotspots" of the most populous Brazilian region. The LabMovel initiated in two important cities of the State: Aparecida do Norte (an important religious center) and the Baixada Santista region which incorporates the port of Santos, the busiest in Latin America. The LabMovel was fully equipped with an automatized system for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis and sequencing/genotyping. It also integrated the laboratory systems for patient records and results divulgation including in the Federal Brazilian Healthcare System.

RESULTS

Currently,16,678 samples were tested, among them 1,217 from Aparecida and 4,564 from Baixada Santista. We tracked the delta introductio in the tested regions with its high diversification. The established mobile SARS-CoV-2 laboratory had a major impact on the Public Health System of the included cities including timely delivery of the results to the healthcare agents and the Federal Healthcare system, evaluation of the vaccination status of the positive individuals in the background of exponential vaccination process in Brazil and scientific and technological divulgation of the fieldwork to the most vulnerable populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has demonstrated worldwide the importance of science to fight against this viral agent and the LabMovel shows that it is possible to integrate researchers, clinicians, healthcare workers and patients to take rapid actions that can in fact mitigate this and other epidemiological situations.

Cross-sectional study for COVID-19-related mortality predictors in a Brazilian state-wide landscape: the role of demographic factors, symptoms and comorbidities

OBJECTIVE

The Brazilian state of Paraná has suffered from COVID-19 effects, understanding predictors of increased mortality in health system interventions prevent hospitalisation of patients. We selected the best models to evaluate the association of death with demographic characteristics, symptoms and comorbidities based on three levels of clinical severity for COVID-19: non-hospitalised, hospitalised non-ICU ward and ICU ward.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey using binomial mixed models.

SETTING

COVID-19-positive cases diagnosed by reverse transcription-PCR of municipalities located in Paraná State.

PATIENTS

Cases of anonymous datasets of electronic medical records from 1 April 2020 to 31 December 2020.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The best prediction factors were chosen based on criteria after a stepwise analysis using multicollinearity measure, lower Akaike information criterion and goodness-of-fit χ² tests from univariate to multivariate contexts.

RESULTS

Male sex was associated with increased mortality among non-hospitalised patients (OR 1.76, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.11) and non-ICU patients (OR 1.22, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.43) for symptoms and for comorbidities (OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.25, and OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.52, respectively). Higher mortality occurred in patients older than 35 years in non-hospitalised (for symptoms: OR 4.05, 95% CI 1.55 to 10.54; and for comorbidities: OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.24 to 7.27) and in hospitalised over 40 years (for symptoms: OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.08 to 6.87; and for comorbidities: OR 2.66, 95% CI 1.22 to 5.79). Dyspnoea was associated with increased mortality in non-hospitalised (OR 4.14, 95% CI 3.45 to 4.96), non-ICU (OR 2.41, 95% CI 2.04 to 2.84) and ICU (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.72) patients. Neurological disorders (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.35 to 3.46), neoplastic (OR 3.22, 95% CI 1.75 to 5.93) and kidney diseases (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.36 to 3.35) showed the majority of increased mortality for ICU as well in the three levels of severity jointly with heart disease, diabetes and CPOD.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of the predictor's assessment for the implementation of public healthcare policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, mainly to understand how non-pharmaceutical measures could mitigate the virus impact over the population.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Variants of Concern in Vaccination Model City in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil

From a country with one of the highest SARS-CoV-2 morbidity and mortality rates, Brazil has implemented one of the most successful vaccination programs. Brazil's first model city vaccination program was performed by the CoronaVac vaccine (Sinovac Biotech) in the town of Serrana, São Paulo State. To evaluate the vaccination effect on the SARS-CoV-2 molecular dynamics and clinical outcomes, we performed SARS-CoV-2 molecular surveillance on 4375 complete genomes obtained between June 2020 and April 2022 in this location. This study included the period between the initial SARS-CoV-2 introduction and during the vaccination process. We observed that the SARS-CoV-2 substitution dynamics in Serrana followed the viral molecular epidemiology in Brazil, including the initial identification of the ancestral lineages (B.1.1.28 and B.1.1.33) and epidemic waves of variants of concern (VOC) including the Gamma, Delta, and, more recently, Omicron. Most probably, as a result of the immunization campaign, the mortality during the Gamma and Delta VOC was significantly reduced compared to the rest of Brazil, which was also related to lower morbidity. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed the evolutionary history of the SARS-CoV-2 in this location and showed that multiple introduction events have occurred over time. The evaluation of the COVID-19 clinical outcome revealed that most cases were mild (88.9%, 98.1%, 99.1% to Gamma, Delta, and Omicron, respectively) regardless of the infecting VOC. In conclusion, we observed that vaccination was responsible for reducing the death toll rate and related COVID-19 morbidity, especially during the gamma and Delta VOC; however, it does not prevent the rapid substitution rate and morbidity of the Omicron VOC.

Seroprevalence, Prevalence, and Genomic Surveillance: Monitoring the Initial Phases of the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic in Betim, Brazil

The COVID-19 pandemic has created an unprecedented need for epidemiological monitoring using diverse strategies. We conducted a project combining prevalence, seroprevalence, and genomic surveillance approaches to describe the initial pandemic stages in Betim City, Brazil. We collected 3239 subjects in a population-based age-, sex- and neighborhood-stratified, household, prospective; cross-sectional study divided into three surveys 21 days apart sampling the same geographical area. In the first survey, overall prevalence (participants positive in serological or molecular tests) reached 0.46% (90% CI 0.12–0.80%), followed by 2.69% (90% CI 1.88–3.49%) in the second survey and 6.67% (90% CI 5.42–7.92%) in the third. The underreporting reached 11, 19.6, and 20.4 times in each survey. We observed increased odds to test positive in females compared to males (OR 1.88 95% CI 1.25–2.82), while the single best predictor for positivity was ageusia/anosmia (OR 8.12, 95% CI 4.72–13.98). Thirty-five SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sequenced, of which 18 were classified as lineage B.1.1.28, while 17 were B.1.1.33. Multiple independent viral introductions were observed. Integration of multiple epidemiological strategies was able to adequately describe COVID-19 dispersion in the city. Presented results have helped local government authorities to guide pandemic management.

Genomic assessment of quarantine measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 importation and transmission

Mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from international travel is a priority. We evaluated the effectiveness of travellers being required to quarantine for 14-days on return to England in Summer 2020. We identified 4,207 travel-related SARS-CoV-2 cases and their contacts, and identified 827 associated SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Overall, quarantine was associated with a lower rate of contacts, and the impact of quarantine was greatest in the 16-20 age-group. 186 SARS-CoV-2 genomes were sufficiently unique to identify travel-related clusters. Fewer genomically-linked cases were observed for index cases who returned from countries with quarantine requirement compared to countries with no quarantine requirement. This difference was explained by fewer importation events per identified genome for these cases, as opposed to fewer onward contacts per case. Overall, our study demonstrates that a 14-day quarantine period reduces, but does not completely eliminate, the onward transmission of imported cases, mainly by dissuading travel to countries with a quarantine requirement.

Identification of Leishmania species by next generation sequencing of hsp70 gene

Leishmaniasis is a major public health problem worldwide. Although next generation sequencing technology has been widely used in the diagnosis of infectious diseases, it has been scarcely applied in identification of Leishmania species. The aim of this study was to compare the efficiency of MinION™ nanopore sequencing and polymerase chain reaction restriction fragment length polymorphism in identifying Leishmania species. Our results showed that the MinION™ sequencer was able to discriminate reference strains and clinical samples with high sensitivity in a cost and time effective manner without the prior need for culture.

Impact of computational approaches in the fight against COVID-19: an AI guided review of 17 000 studies

SARS-CoV-2 caused the first severe pandemic of the digital era. Computational approaches have been ubiquitously used in an attempt to timely and effectively cope with the resulting global health crisis. In order to extensively assess such contribution, we collected, categorized and prioritized over 17 000 COVID-19-related research articles including both peer-reviewed and preprint publications that make a relevant use of computational approaches. Using machine learning methods, we identified six broad application areas i.e. Molecular Pharmacology and Biomarkers, Molecular Virology, Epidemiology, Healthcare, Clinical Medicine and Clinical Imaging. We then used our prioritization model as a guidance through an extensive, systematic review of the most relevant studies. We believe that the remarkable contribution provided by computational applications during the ongoing pandemic motivates additional efforts toward their further development and adoption, with the aim of enhancing preparedness and critical response for current and future emergencies.

Absence of neutralizing antibodies against the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant in convalescent sera from individuals infected with the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus or its Gamma variant

OBJECTIVES

The aim of the present study was to evaluate if neutralizing antibody responses induced by infection with the SARS-CoV-2 strain that was dominant at the beginning of the pandemic or by the Gamma variant was effective against the Omicron variant.

METHODS

Convalescent sera from 109 individuals, never exposed to a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine, who had mild or moderate symptoms not requiring hospitalization following either a documented SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain infection or a Gamma variant infection, were assayed for in vitro neutralizing antibody activity against their original strains and the Omicron variant.

RESULTS

Following an infection with the ancestral strain, 56 (93.3%), 45 (77.6%) and 1 (1.7%) serum sample were positive for neutralizing antibodies against the ancestral, Gamma variant, and Omicron variant, respectively. After infection with the Gamma variant, 43 (87.8%) and 2 (4.1%) sera were positive for neutralizing antibodies against the Gamma and Omicron variants, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Neutralizing antibodies generated following mild or moderate infection with the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain or the Gamma variant are not protective against the Omicron variant.

Tracking the emergence of disparities in the subnational spread of COVID-19 in Brazil using an online application for real-time data visualisation: A longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Brazil is one of the countries worst affected by the COVID-19 pandemic with over 20 million cases and 557,000 deaths reported by August 2021. Comparison of real-time local COVID-19 data between areas is essential for understanding transmission, measuring the effects of interventions, and predicting the course of the epidemic, but are often challenging due to different population sizes and structures.

METHODS

We describe the development of a new app for the real-time visualisation of COVID-19 data in Brazil at the municipality level. In the CLIC-Brazil app, daily updates of case and death data are downloaded, age standardised and used to estimate the effective reproduction number (Rt ). We show how such platforms can perform real-time regression analyses to identify factors associated with the rate of initial spread and early reproduction number. We also use survival methods to predict the likelihood of occurrence of a new peak of COVID-19 incidence.

FINDINGS

After an initial introduction in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro states in early March 2020, the epidemic spread to northern states and then to highly populated coastal regions and the Central-West. Municipalities with higher metrics of social development experienced earlier arrival of COVID-19 (decrease of 11·1 days [95% CI:8.9,13.2] in the time to arrival for each 10% increase in the social development index). Differences in the initial epidemic intensity (mean Rt ) were largely driven by geographic location and the date of local onset.

INTERPRETATION

This study demonstrates that platforms that monitor, standardise and analyse the epidemiological data at a local level can give useful real-time insights into outbreak dynamics that can be used to better adapt responses to the current and future pandemics.

FUNDING

This project was supported by a Medical Research Council UK (MRC-UK) -São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) CADDE partnership award (MR/S0195/1 and FAPESP 18/14389-0).

Characteristics and Factors Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Individuals That Attended Referral Hospitals from Southern Region of Bahia State, Brazil: A Surveillance Network Retrospective Study

In December 2019, a novel coronavirus was detected in Wuhan, China, and rapidly spread worldwide. In Brazil, to date, there have been more than 20,000,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 550,000 deaths. The purpose of the current study was to determine the clinical and epidemiological profile of the population affected by COVID-19 that have attended referral hospitals in Southern region of Bahia State, to better understand the disease and its risk factors in order to enable more appropriate conduct for patients. An observational, descriptive, cross-sectional, exploratory study was conducted using secondary data collected from the Laboratório de Farmacogenômica e Epidemiologia Molecular, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz (LAFEM/UESC). Chi-squared and Fisher's exact tests were applied to determine the association between clinical symptoms and laboratory results, and to identify risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. A total of 3135 individuals with suspected severe respiratory illness were analyzed and 41.4% of them tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Male individuals and having comorbidities were risk factors significantly associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection (OR = 1.17 and OR = 1.37, respectively). Interestingly, being a healthcare professional was a significantly protective factor (OR = 0.81, p < 0.001). Our findings highlight the importance of routinely testing the population for early identification of infected individuals, and also provide important information to health authorities and police makers to improve control measures, management, and screening protocols.

SARS-CoV-2 in a stream running through an underprivileged, underserved, urban settlement in São Paulo, Brazil: A 7-month follow-up

COVID-19 pandemic has led to concerns on the circulation of SARS-CoV-2 in the environment, its infectivity from the environment and, the relevance of transmission via environmental compartments. During 31 weeks, water samples were collected from a heavily contaminated stream going through an urban, underprivileged community without sewage collection. Our results showed a statistically significant correlation between cases of COVID-19 and SARS in the community, and SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the water. Based on the model, if the concentrations of SARS-CoV-RNA (N1 and N2 target regions) increase 10 times, there is an expected increase of 104% [95%CI: (62-157%)] and 92% [95%CI: (51-143%)], respectively, in the number of cases of COVID-19 and SARS. We believe that differences in concentration of the virus in the environment reflect the epidemiological status in the community, which may be important information for surveillance and controlling dissemination in areas with vulnerable populations and poor sanitation. None of the samples were found infectious based cultures. Our results may be applicable globally as similar communities exist worldwide.

Atypical Prolonged Viral Shedding With Intra-Host SARS-CoV-2 Evolution in a Mildly Affected Symptomatic Patient

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is caused by a respiratory virus with a wide range of manifestations, varying from asymptomatic to fatal cases, with a generally short outcome. However, some individuals present long-term viral shedding. We monitored 38 individuals who were mildly affected by the SARS-CoV-2 infection. Out of the total studied population, three (7.9%) showed atypical events regarding the duration of positivity for viral RNA detection. In one of these atypical cases, a previously HIV-positive male patient presented a SARS-CoV-2 RNA shedding and subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) detected from the upper respiratory tract, respectively, for 232 and 224 days after the onset of the symptoms. The SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.28 lineage, one of the most prevalent in Brazil in 2020, was identified in this patient in three serial samples. Interestingly, the genomic analyses performed throughout the infectious process showed an increase in the genetic diversity of the B.1.1.28 lineage within the host itself, with viral clearance occurring naturally, without any intervention measures to control the infection. Contrasting widely spread current knowledge, our results indicate that potentially infectious SARS-CoV-2 virus might be shed by much longer periods by some infected patients. This data call attention to better adapted non-pharmacological measures and clinical discharge of patients aiming at preventing the spread of SARS-CoV-2 to the population.

The clinical course of hospitalized moderately ill COVID-19 patients is mirrored by routine hematologic tests and influenced by renal transplantation

Several studies of patients with COVID-19 have evaluated biological markers for predicting outcomes, most of them retrospectively and with a wide scope of clinical severity. We followed a prospective cohort of patients admitted in hospital wards with moderate COVID-19 disease, including those with a history of kidney transplantation, and examined the ability of changes in routine hematologic laboratory parameters to predict and mirror the patients' clinical course regarding the severity of their condition (classified as critical vs. non-critical) and in-hospital mortality or hospital discharge. Among the 68 patients, 20 (29%) were kidney transplanted patients (KT), and they had much higher mortality than non-kidney transplanted patients in this cohort (40% X 8.3%). Lymphocytes, neutrophils and neutrophils/lymphocytes ratio (NLR) at admission and platelets as well as the red blood cells parameters hemoglobin, hematocrit, and RDW by the time of hospital discharge or death clearly differentiated patients progressing to critical disease and those with clinical recovery. Patients with deteriorating clinical courses presented elevated and similar NLRs during the first week of hospitalization. However, they were dramatically different at hospital discharge, with a decrease in the survivors (NLR around 5.5) and sustained elevation in non-survivors (NLR around 21). Platelets also could distinguish survivors from non-survivors among the critical patients. In conclusion, routine hematologic tests are useful to monitor the clinical course of COVID-19 patients admitted with moderate disease. Unexpectedly, changes in hematologic tests, including lymphopenia, were not predictive of complicated outcomes among KT recipients.

Epidemiological dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 VOC Gamma in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The emergence and widespread circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variants of concern (VOCs) or interest impose an enhanced threat to global public health. In Brazil, one of the countries most severely impacted throughout the pandemic, a complex dynamics involving variants co-circulation and turnover events has been recorded with the emergence and spread of VOC Gamma in Manaus in late 2020. In this context, we present a genomic epidemiology investigation based on samples collected between December 2020 and May 2021 in the second major Brazilian metropolis, Rio de Janeiro. By sequencing 244 novel genomes through all epidemiological weeks in this period, we were able to document the introduction and rapid dissemination of VOC Gamma in the city, driving the rise of the third local epidemic wave. Molecular clock analysis indicates that this variant has circulated locally since the first weeks of 2021 and only 7 weeks were necessary for it to achieve a frequency above 70 per cent, consistent with rates of growth observed in Manaus and other states. Moreover, a Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction indicates that VOC Gamma spread throughout Brazil between December 2020 and January 2021 and that it was introduced in Rio de Janeiro through at least 13 events coming from nearly all regions of the country. Comparative analysis of reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) cycle threshold (Ct) values provides further evidence that VOC Gamma induces higher viral loads (N1 target; mean reduction of Ct: 2.7, 95 per cent confidence interval = ± 0.7). This analysis corroborates the previously proposed mechanistic basis for this variant-enhanced transmissibility and distinguished epidemiological behavior. Our results document the evolution of VOC Gamma and provide independent assessment of scenarios previously studied in Manaus, therefore contributing to the better understanding of the epidemiological dynamics currently being surveyed in other Brazilian regions.

Insights on the SARS-CoV-2 genome variability: the lesson learned in Brazil and its impacts on the future of pandemics

Since the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 spread in Brazil, few studies have been published analysing the variability of viral genome. Herein, we described the dynamic of SARS-CoV-2 strains circulating in Brazil from May to September 2020, to better understand viral changes that may affect the ongoing pandemic. Our data demonstrate that some of the mutations identified are currently observed in variants of interest and variants of concern, and emphasize the importance of studying previous periods in order to comprehend the emergence of new variants. From 720 SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences, we found few sites under positive selection pressure, such as the D614G (98.5 %) in the spike, that has replaced the old variant; the V1167F in the spike (41 %), identified in the P.2 variant that emerged from Brazil during the period of analysis; and I292T (39 %) in the N protein. There were a few alterations in the UTRs, which was expected, however, our data suggest that the emergence of new variants was not influenced by mutations in UTR regions, since it maintained its conformational structure in most analysed sequences. In phylogenetic analysis, the spread of SARS-CoV-2 from the large urban centres to the countryside during these months could be explained by the flexibilization of social isolation measures and also could be associated with possible new waves of infection. These results allow a better understanding of SARS-CoV-2 strains that have circulated in Brazil, and thus, with relevant infomation, provide the potential viral changes that may have affected and/or contributed to the current and future scenario of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Thyroid Hormone Levels During Hospital Admission Inform Disease Severity and Mortality in COVID-19 Patients

Background: Illness severity in patients infected with COVID-19 is variable. Methods: Here, we conducted an observational, longitudinal, and prospective cohort study to investigate serum thyroid hormone (TH) levels in adult COVID-19 patients, admitted between June and August 2020, and to determine whether they reflect the severity or mortality associated with the disease. Results: Two hundred forty-five patients [median age: 62 (49-75) years] were stratified into non-critical (181) and critically ill (64) groups. Fifty-eight patients (23.6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 41 (16.7%) died. Sixteen (6.5%) exhibited isolated low levels of free triiodothyronine (fT3). fT3 levels were lower in critically ill compared with non-critical patients [fT3: 2.82 (2.46-3.29) pg/mL vs. 3.09 (2.67-3.63) pg/mL, p = 0.007]. Serum reverse triiodothyronine (rT3) was mostly elevated but less so in critically ill compared with non-critical patients [rT3: 0.36 (0.28-0.56) ng/mL vs. 0.51 (0.31-0.67) ng/mL, p = 0.001]. The univariate logistic regression revealed correlation between in-hospital mortality and serum fT3 levels (odds ratio [OR]: 0.47; 95% confidence interval [CI 0.29-0.74]; p = 0.0019), rT3 levels (OR: 0.09; [CI 0.01-0.49]; p = 0.006) and the product fT3 × rT3 (OR: 0.47; [CI 0.28-0.74]; p = 0.0026). Serum thyrotropin, free thyroxine, and fT3/rT3 values were not significantly associated with mortality and severity of the disease. A serum cutoff level of fT3 (≤2.6 pg/mL) and rT3 (≤0.38 ng/mL) was associated with 3.46 and 5.94 OR of mortality, respectively. We found three COVID-19 mortality predictors using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC score): serum fT3 (AUC = 0.66), rT3 (AUC = 0.64), and the product of serum fT3 × rT3 (AUC = 0.70). Non-thyroidal illness syndrome (fT3 < 2.0 pg/mL) was associated with a 7.05 OR of mortality ([CI 1.78-28.3], p = 0.005) and the product rT3 × fT3 ≤ 1.29 with an 8.08 OR of mortality ([CI 3.14-24.2], p < 0.0001). Conclusions: This prospective study reports data on the largest number of hospitalized moderate-to-severe COVID-19 patients and correlates serum TH levels with illness severity, mortality, and other biomarkers to critical illness. The data revealed the importance of early assessment of thyroid function in hospitalized patients with COVID-19, given the good prognostic value of serum fT3, rT3, and fT3 × rT3 product. Further studies are necessary to confirm these observations.

Temporal spread and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the second pandemic wave in Brazil

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus‐2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) pandemic spread rapidly and this scenario is concerning in South America, mainly in Brazil that presented more than 21 million coronavirus disease 2019 cases and 590 000 deaths. The recent emergence of novel lineages carrying several mutations in the spike protein has raised additional public health concerns worldwide. The present study describes the temporal spreading and evolution of SARS‐CoV2 in the beginning of the second pandemic wave in Brazil, highlighting the fast dissemination of the two major concerning variants (P.1 and P.2). A total of 2507 SARS‐CoV‐2 whole‐genome sequences (WGSs) with available information from the country (Brazil) and sampling date (July 2020–February 2021), were obtained and the frequencies of the lineages were evaluated in the period of the growing second pandemic wave. The results demonstrated the increasing prevalence of P.1 and P.2 lineages in the period evaluated. P.2 lineage was first detected in the middle of 2020, but a high increase occurred only in the last trimester of this same year and the spreading to all Brazilian regions. P.1 lineage emerged even later, first in the North region in December 2020 and really fast dissemination to all other Brazilian regions in January and February 2021. All SARS‐CoV‐2 WGSs of P.1 and P.2 were further separately evaluated with a Bayesian approach. The rates of nucleotide and amino acid substitutions were statistically higher in P.1 than P.2 (p < 0.01). The phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that P.2 gradually spread in all the country from September 2020 to January 2021, while P.1 disseminated even faster from December 2020 to February 2021. Skyline plots of both lineages demonstrated a slight rise in the spreading for P.2 and exponential growth for P.1. In conclusion, these data demonstrated that the P.1 (recently renamed as Gamma) and P.2 lineages have predominated in the second pandemic wave due to the very high spreading across all geographic regions in Brazil at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021.

In Brazil, P.1 (Gamma) and P.2 lineages have predominated in the second pandemic wave.

The Bayesian approach showed very high spreading for both lineages across all geographic regions at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021.

P.2 increased only in the last trimester of 2020 and the spreading to all Brazilian regions.

P.1 (Gamma) emerged even later with fast dissemination to all Brazilian regions in January and February 2021.

Fundamental evolution of all Orthocoronavirinae including three deadly lineages descendent from Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses: SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) emerged in humans in 2002. Despite reports showing Chiroptera as the original animal reservoir of SARS-CoV, many argue that Carnivora-hosted viruses are the most likely origin. The emergence of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in 2012 also involves Chiroptera-hosted lineages. However, factors such as the lack of comprehensive phylogenies hamper our understanding of host shifts once MERS-CoV emerged in humans and Artiodactyla. Since 2019, the origin of SARS-CoV-2, causative agent of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), added to this episodic history of zoonotic transmission events. Here we introduce a phylogenetic analysis of 2006 unique and complete genomes of different lineages of Orthocoronavirinae. We used gene annotations to align orthologous sequences for total evidence analysis under the parsimony optimality criterion. Deltacoronavirus and Gammacoronavirus were set as outgroups to understand spillovers of Alphacoronavirus and Betacoronavirus among ten orders of animals. We corroborated that Chiroptera-hosted viruses are the sister group of SARS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 and MERS-related viruses. Other zoonotic events were qualified and quantified to provide a comprehensive picture of the risk of coronavirus emergence among humans. Finally, we used a 250 SARS-CoV-2 genomes dataset to elucidate the phylogenetic relationship between SARS-CoV-2 and Chiroptera-hosted coronaviruses.

COVID-19 pandemic and the answer of science: a year in review

The world is looking forward to a prompt response by the scientific community in order to overcome the first pandemic of the 21st century. This study aimed to provide an overview of scientific output on COVID-19 during its first year. We assembled information regarding 60,830 articles related to COVID-19 indexed in the WoS database from January 24 to December 13, 2020. Only 4 countries accounted for about 60% of the articles (USA, China, Italy, and England) and 12 countries accounted for about 95% of the world scientific output on COVID-19 (USA, China, Italy, England, India, Canada, Germany, Spain, Australia, Brazil, Iran, and Turkey). 25 research centers around the world contributed with more than 500 papers on COVID-19. Papers were scattered throughout 6,133 journals, with 12 journals with > 250 articles. 20 articles (0.03%) have already received more than the 1,000 citations. The response of the scientific endeavor to this acute global public health emergency has been fast and robust. The overview provided by the analysis of the scientific response to the pandemic may contribute to further studies aiming to evaluate the impact and changes in the scientific endeavor for the next years in light of the forthcoming new world framework.

Assessment of initial SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the most affected districts in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil

Background

São Paulo city has been one of the regions most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Frequent asymptomatic and oligosymptomatic infections and poor access to diagnostic tests make serosurveys crucial to monitor the magnitude of the epidemic and to inform public health policies, such as vaccination plans.

Objectives

To estimate, early in the epidemic, the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in adults living in the six most affected districts in São Paulo city, and to assess potential associated risk factors.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional population-based survey of 1,152 households randomly selected from 72 census tracts. During the period May 4–12, 2020, 463 participants completed a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics and history of symptoms in the past two weeks, and provided a blood sample. Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was the outcome of interest and was estimated based on results of two immunoassays, Maglumi SARS-CoV-2 chemiluminescence assay Immunoglobulin (Ig) M (IgM) and IgG, and Roche electrochemiluminescence assay total Ig. Serum samples reactive to either assay were considered positive.

Results

Weighted overall seroprevalence was 6% (95%CI 3.9–8.3%). No association was observed between seropositivity and sex, age group or education level. Participants who reported black and brown skin color showed a 2.7 fold higher prevalence than people with white skin (p = 0.007). Among the 30 seropositive individuals, 14 (46.6%) reported no COVID-19 compatible symptoms in the past two weeks.

Conclusion

This study represents the first assessment of SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the city of São Paulo and 6% is the baseline estimate of a series of population-based seroprevalence surveys. Serological screening using sound serological assays is the key tool to monitoring temporal and geographic changes in the spread of the virus through an important epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. Ultimately, it may inform prevention and control efforts.

Genetics of COVID-19

OBJECTIVE

This narrative, non-systematic review provides an update on the genetic aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and its interactions with the human genome within the context of COVID-19. Although the main focus is on the etiology of this new disease, the genetics of SARS-CoV-2 impacts prevention, diagnosis, prognosis, and the development of therapies.

DATA SOURCE

A literature search was conducted on MEDLINE, BioRxiv, and SciELO, as well as a manual search on the internet (mainly in 2019 and 2020) using the keywords "COVID-19," "SARS-CoV-2," "coronavirus," "genetics," "molecular," "mutation," "vaccine," "Brazil," "Brasil," and combinations of these terms. The keywords "Brazil" and "Brasil" were used to find publications that were specific to the Brazilian population's molecular epidemiology data. Articles most relevant to the scope were selected non-systematically.

DATA SYNTHESIS

A number of publications illustrate an expanding knowledge on the genetics and genomics of SARS-CoV-2 and its implications for understanding COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowledge of the SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence permits an in-depth investigation of the role its proteins play in the pathophysiology of COVID-19, which in turn will be enormously valuable for understanding the evolutionary, clinical, and epidemiological aspects of this disease and focusing on prevention and treatment.

Incidence of Reported Flu-Like Syndrome Cases in Brazilian Health Care Workers in 2020 (March to June)

Health care workers (HCWs) are at an increased risk of being exposed to COVID-19. This study aimed to characterize flu-like syndrome cases (FS) in HCWs notified in Brazil and compare them with FS cases in the general community (GC). In the Brazilian protocol, FS corresponds to a suspected case of COVID-19. The manuscript analyzed cases of FS in five Brazilian states, estimating the incidence rates of cases of FS and clinical and epidemiological characteristics. Registered cases (March to June 2020) totaled about 1,100,000 cases of FS. HCWs represented 17% of the registers, whose incidence was 20.41/100 vs. 2.15/100 in the GC. FS cases in HCWs concentrated the highest percentages in the age group of 30 to 49 years (65.15%) and among the nursing staff (46.86%). This study was the first interstate evaluation in Brazil to estimate suspected cases of FS by COVID-19 in HCWs. In order to control the spread of viral respiratory infections in HCWs, including COVID-19, it is necessary to review the management of health information to identify who they are, how many they are, and to what situations these workers are most frequently exposed, as well as in what professions they have. This information can guide specific, practical, and far-reaching actions.

Assessing the nationwide impact of COVID-19 mitigation policies on the transmission rate of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

COVID-19 is now identified in almost all countries in the world, with poorer regions being particularly more disadvantaged to efficiently mitigate the impacts of the pandemic. In the absence of efficient therapeutics or large-scale vaccination, control strategies are currently based on non-pharmaceutical interventions, comprising changes in population behavior and governmental interventions, among which the prohibition of mass gatherings, closure of non-essential establishments, quarantine and movement restrictions. In this work we analyzed the effects of 707 governmental interventions published up to May 22, 2020, and population adherence thereof, on the dynamics of COVID-19 cases across all 27 Brazilian states, with emphasis on state capitals and remaining inland cities. A generalized SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model with a time-varying transmission rate (TR), that considers transmission by asymptomatic individuals, is presented. We analyze the effect of both the extent of enforced measures across Brazilian states and population movement on the changes in the TR and effective reproduction number. The social mobility reduction index, a measure of population movement, together with the stringency index, adapted to incorporate the degree of restrictions imposed by governmental regulations, were used in conjunction to quantify and compare the effects of varying degrees of policy strictness across Brazilian states. Our results show that population adherence to social distance recommendations plays an important role for the effectiveness of interventions and represents a major challenge to the control of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries.

Genomics and epidemiology of the P.1 SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020 despite previously high levels of infection. Genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021 revealed the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern. Lineage P.1 acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K, and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 (angiotensin-converting enzyme 2) receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around mid-November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.7- to 2.4-fold more transmissible and that previous (non-P.1) infection provides 54 to 79% of the protection against infection with P.1 that it provides against non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness.

Dissemination and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in the early pandemic phase in South America

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic spread rapidly and this scenario is concerning in South America, mainly in Brazil with more than seven million cases of infection. Three major pandemic lineages/clades could be identified along with SARS-CoV-2 dissemination (G, GR, and GH) in the Americas. These clades differ according to their genomic characteristics, virulence, and spreading times. The present study describes the main clades and the respective temporal spreading analyses based on SARS-CoV-2 whole-genome sequences (WGS) from South America, obtained in the early pandemic phase (from March 1 to May 31 in 2020). SARS-CoV-2 WGSs with available information from country and year of sampling were obtained from different countries and the main clades were identified and analyzed independently with a Bayesian approach. The results demonstrated the prevalence of clades GR (n = 842; 54.6%), G (n = 529; 34.3%), and GH (n = 171; 11.1%). The frequencies of the clades were significantly different between South American countries. Clade G was the most prevalent in Ecuador, Suriname, and Uruguay, clade GR in Argentina, Brazil, and Peru, and clade GH in Colombia. The phylodynamic analysis indicated that all these main lineages increased viral spreading from February to early March and after an evolutionary stationary phase was observed. The decrease observed in the virus dissemination was directly associated to the reduction of social movement after March. In conclusion, these data demonstrated the current predominance of clades G, GR, and GH in South America because of the early dissemination of them in the first pandemic phase in South America.

Disparity between scientific accomplishment and biotechnology availability in Brazil

Despite being among the world's leaders in scientific output, Brazil ranks 66th among countries in the production of reagents and supplies needed for state-of-the-art scientific analyses. The production of needed reagents and equipment for experimental analyses and patient diagnostics is sorely lacking within Brazil and explicit in this pandemic period caused by SARS-CoV-2. A significant fraction of resources from Brazilian funding agencies is now being transferred to companies in other countries for the purchase of essential scientific-related products. Is this sustainable? Therefore it is necessary to draw the attention of all the world and Brazilian society about this situation.

Higher risk of death from COVID-19 in low-income and non-White populations of São Paulo, Brazil

INTRODUCTION

Little evidence exists on the differential health effects of COVID-19 on disadvantaged population groups. Here we characterise the differential risk of hospitalisation and death in São Paulo state, Brazil, and show how vulnerability to COVID-19 is shaped by socioeconomic inequalities.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study using hospitalised severe acute respiratory infections notified from March to August 2020 in the Sistema de Monitoramento Inteligente de São Paulo database. We examined the risk of hospitalisation and death by race and socioeconomic status using multiple data sets for individual-level and spatiotemporal analyses. We explained these inequalities according to differences in daily mobility from mobile phone data, teleworking behaviour and comorbidities.

RESULTS

Throughout the study period, patients living in the 40% poorest areas were more likely to die when compared with patients living in the 5% wealthiest areas (OR: 1.60, 95% CI 1.48 to 1.74) and were more likely to be hospitalised between April and July 2020 (OR: 1.08, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.12). Black and Pardo individuals were more likely to be hospitalised when compared with White individuals (OR: 1.41, 95% CI 1.37 to 1.46; OR: 1.26, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.28, respectively), and were more likely to die (OR: 1.13, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.19; 1.07, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.10, respectively) between April and July 2020. Once hospitalised, patients treated in public hospitals were more likely to die than patients in private hospitals (OR: 1.40%, 95% CI 1.34% to 1.46%). Black individuals and those with low education attainment were more likely to have one or more comorbidities, respectively (OR: 1.29, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.39; 1.36, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.45).

CONCLUSIONS

Low-income and Black and Pardo communities are more likely to die with COVID-19. This is associated with differential access to quality healthcare, ability to self-isolate and the higher prevalence of comorbidities.

Whole-genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 reveals the detection of G614 variant in Pakistan

Since its emergence in China, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread worldwide including Pakistan. During the pandemic, whole genome sequencing has played an important role in understanding the evolution and genomic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Although an unprecedented number of SARS-CoV-2 full genomes have been submitted in GISAID and NCBI, data from Pakistan is scarce. We report the sequencing, genomic characterization, and phylogenetic analysis of five SARS-CoV-2 strains isolated from patients in Pakistan. The oropharyngeal swabs of patients that were confirmed positive for SARS-CoV-2 through real-time RT-PCR at National Institute of Health, Pakistan, were selected for whole-genome sequencing. Sequencing was performed using NEBNext Ultra II Directional RNA Library Prep kit for Illumina (NEW ENGLAND BioLabs Inc., MA, US) and Illumina iSeq 100 instrument (Illumina, San Diego, US). Based on whole-genome analysis, three Pakistani SARS-CoV-2 strains clustered into the 20A (GH) clade along with the strains from Oman, Slovakia, United States, and Pakistani strain EPI_ISL_513925. The two 19B (S)-clade strains were closely related to viruses from India and Oman. Overall, twenty-nine amino acid mutations were detected in the current study genome sequences, including fifteen missense and four novel mutations. Notably, we have found a D614G (aspartic acid to glycine) mutation in spike protein of the sequences from the GH clade. The G614 variant carrying the characteristic D614G mutation has been shown to be more infectious that lead to its rapid spread worldwide. This report highlights the detection of GH and S clade strains and G614 variant from Pakistan warranting large-scale whole-genome sequencing of strains prevalent in different regions to understand virus evolution and to explore their genetic diversity.

Genomics and epidemiology of a novel SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus, Brazil

Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Manaus, Brazil, resurged in late 2020, despite high levels of previous infection there. Through genome sequencing of viruses sampled in Manaus between November 2020 and January 2021, we identified the emergence and circulation of a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern, lineage P.1, that acquired 17 mutations, including a trio in the spike protein (K417T, E484K and N501Y) associated with increased binding to the human ACE2 receptor. Molecular clock analysis shows that P.1 emergence occurred around early November 2020 and was preceded by a period of faster molecular evolution. Using a two-category dynamical model that integrates genomic and mortality data, we estimate that P.1 may be 1.4-2.2 times more transmissible and 25-61% more likely to evade protective immunity elicited by previous infection with non-P.1 lineages. Enhanced global genomic surveillance of variants of concern, which may exhibit increased transmissibility and/or immune evasion, is critical to accelerate pandemic responsiveness.

Spatial dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyse the dynamics of spatial dispersion of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Brazil by correlating them to socioeconomic indicators. This is an ecological study of COVID-19 cases and deaths between 26 February and 31 July 2020. All Brazilian counties were used as units of analysis. The incidence, mortality, Bayesian incidence and mortality rates, global and local Moran indices were calculated. A geographic weighted regression analysis was conducted to assess the relationship between incidence and mortality due to COVID-19 and socioeconomic indicators (independent variables). There were confirmed 2 662 485 cases of COVID-19 reported in Brazil from February to July 2020 with higher rates of incidence in the north and northeast. The Moran global index of incidence rate (0.50, P = 0.01) and mortality (0.45 with P = 0.01) indicate a positive spatial autocorrelation with high standards in the north, northeast and in the largest urban centres between cities in the southeast region. In the same period, there were 92 475 deaths from COVID-19, with higher mortality rates in the northern states of Brazil, mainly Amazonas, Pará and Amapá. The results show that there is a geospatial correlation of COVID-19 in large urban centres and regions with the lowest human development index in the country. In the geographic weighted regression, it was possible to identify that the percentage of people living in residences with density higher than 2 per dormitory, the municipality human development index (MHDI) and the social vulnerability index were the indicators that most contributed to explaining incidence, social development index and the municipality human development index contributed the most to the mortality model. We hope that the findings will contribute to reorienting public health responses to combat COVID-19 in Brazil, the new epicentre of the disease in South America, as well as in other countries that have similar epidemiological and health characteristics to those in Brazil.

Clinical Characteristics and Mortality Profile of COVID-19 Patients Aged less than 20 years Old in Pernambuco - Brazil

COVID-19 in children and adolescents has low frequency, severity, and fatality rate all over the world. A cross-sectional study was conducted to assess the epidemiological and clinical aspects of COVID-19 in patients younger than 20 years in Pernambuco (Brazil), with cases confirmed by reverse-transcriptase–PCR SARS-CoV-2 between 13 February and June 19, 2020, reported on information systems. Data regarding age (< 30 days, 1–11 months, 1–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–19 years), gender, color/race, symptoms, pregnancy or puerperium, comorbidities, hospitalization, and death were investigated. Fatality rate and mortality coefficient were calculated, and a multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to determine if gender, age, and comorbidities were factors associated with death. Of 682 pediatric cases, 52.8% were female, with a mean age of 9 ± 7.2 years. The most frequent symptoms were fever (64.4%), cough (52.4%), and respiratory distress (32.4%). Hospitalization was reported in 46.2% of cases, mainly among neonates (80.3%) and infants (73.8%). Thirty-eight deaths were notified, and a fatality rate of 5.6% (95% CI: 3.9–7.3) was found, with higher fatality rates among neonates 11.5% (7 of 61) and 9.5% (8 of 84) infants. The mortality coefficient was 10.9 per 100,000 inhabitants < 1 year of age, whereas comorbidities (Odds ratio [OR] = 14.13, 95% CI: 6.35–31.44), age < 30 days (OR = 5.17, 95% CI: 1.81–14.77), and age 1–11 months (OR = 3.28, 95% CI: 1.21–8.91) were independent factors associated with death. The results demonstrate the vulnerability of neonates and infants with severe conditions, need hospitalization, and high fatality rate, indicating the necessity to adapt public health policies for these age-groups.

Evolutionary Dynamics and Dissemination Pattern of the SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.33 During the Early Pandemic Phase in Brazil

A previous study demonstrates that most of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) Brazilian strains fell in three local clades that were introduced from Europe around late February 2020. Here we investigated in more detail the origin of the major and most widely disseminated SARS-CoV-2 Brazilian lineage B.1.1.33. We recovered 190 whole viral genomes collected from 13 Brazilian states from February 29 to April 31, 2020 and combined them with other B.1.1 genomes collected globally. Our genomic survey confirms that lineage B.1.1.33 is responsible for a variable fraction of the community viral transmissions in Brazilian states, ranging from 2% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Pernambuco to 80% of those from Rio de Janeiro. We detected a moderate prevalence (5-18%) of lineage B.1.1.33 in some South American countries and a very low prevalence (<1%) in North America, Europe, and Oceania. Our study reveals that lineage B.1.1.33 evolved from an ancestral clade, here designated B.1.1.33-like, that carries one of the two B.1.1.33 synapomorphic mutations. The B.1.1.33-like lineage may have been introduced from Europe or arose in Brazil in early February 2020 and a few weeks later gave origin to the lineage B.1.1.33. These SARS-CoV-2 lineages probably circulated during February 2020 and reached all Brazilian regions and multiple countries around the world by mid-March, before the implementation of air travel restrictions in Brazil. Our phylodynamic analysis also indicates that public health interventions were partially effective to control the expansion of lineage B.1.1.33 in Rio de Janeiro because its median effective reproductive number (R e ) was drastically reduced by about 66% during March 2020, but failed to bring it to below one. Continuous genomic surveillance of lineage B.1.1.33 might provide valuable information about epidemic dynamics and the effectiveness of public health interventions in some Brazilian states.

Early Transmission Dynamics, Spread, and Genomic Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 in Panama

We report an epidemiologic analysis of 4,210 cases of infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 and genetic analysis of 313 new near-complete virus genomes in Panama during March 9-April 16, 2020. Although containment measures reduced R0 and Rt, they did not interrupt virus spread in the country.

Genotype-phenotype correlation identified a novel SARS-CoV-2 variant possibly linked to severe disease

The geographic location and heterogeneous multi‐ethnic population of Dubai (United Arab Emirates; UAE) provide a unique setting to explore the global molecular epidemiology of SARS‐CoV‐2 and relationship between different viral strains and disease severity. We systematically selected (i.e. every 100th individual in the central Dubai COVID‐19 database) 256 patients by age, sex, disease severity and month to provide a representative sample of laboratory‐confirmed COVID‐19 patients (nasopharyngeal swab PCR positive) during the first wave of the UAE outbreak (January to June 2020). Sociodemographic and clinical data were extracted from medical records and full SARS‐CoV‐2 genome sequences extracted from nasopharyngeal swabs were analysed. Older age was significantly associated with COVID‐19‐associated hospital admission and mortality. Overweight/obese or diabetic patients were 3–4 times more likely to be admitted to hospital and intensive care unit (ICU). Sequencing data showed multiple independent viral introductions into the UAE from Europe, Iran and Asia (29 January–18 March), and these early strains seeded significant clustering consistent with almost exclusive community‐based transmission between April and June 2020. Majority of sequenced strains (N = 60, 52%) were from the European cluster consistent with the higher infectivity rates associated with the D614G mutation carried by most strains in this cluster. A total of 986 mutations were identified in 115 genomes, 272 were unique (majority were missense, n = 134) and 20/272 mutations were novel. A missense (Q271R) and synonymous (R41R) mutation in the S and N proteins, respectively, were identified in 2/27 patients with severe COVID‐19 but not in patients with mild or moderate disease (0/86; p = .05, Fisher's Exact Test). Both patients were women (51–64 years) with no significant underlying health conditions. The same two mutations were identified in a healthy 37‐year‐old Indian man who was hospitalized in India due to COVID‐19. Our findings provide evidence for continued community‐based transmission of the European strains in the Dubai population and highlight new mutations that might be associated with severe disease in otherwise healthy adults.

Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread rapidly in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state in northern Brazil. The attack rate there is an estimate of the final size of the largely unmitigated epidemic that occurred in Manaus. We use a convenience sample of blood donors to show that by June 2020, 1 month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, 44% of the population had detectable immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies. Correcting for cases without a detectable antibody response and for antibody waning, we estimate a 66% attack rate in June, rising to 76% in October. This is higher than in São Paulo, in southeastern Brazil, where the estimated attack rate in October was 29%. These results confirm that when poorly controlled, COVID-19 can infect a large proportion of the population, causing high mortality.

Modelling the impact of contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic

OBJECTIVES

With the declining numbers of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, social distancing measures have gradually been lifted. However, the risk of a surge in the number of cases cannot be overlooked. Even with the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as restrictions on mass gatherings, wearing of masks, and complete or partial closure of schools, other public health measures may help control the epidemic. We aimed to evaluate the impact of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic regardless of the use of diagnostic testing.

METHODS

We developed a mathematical model that includes isolation of symptomatic individuals and tracing of contacts to assess the effects of the contact tracing of symptomatic individuals on the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo.

RESULTS

For a selection efficacy (proportion of isolated contacts who are infected) of 80%, cases and deaths may be reduced by 80% after 60 days when 5000 symptomatic individuals are isolated per day, each of them together with 10 contacts. On the other hand, for a selection efficacy of 20%, the number of cases and deaths may be reduced by approximately 40% and 50%, respectively, compared with the scenario in which no contact-tracing strategy is implemented.

CONCLUSION

Contact tracing of symptomatic individuals may potentially be an alternative strategy when the number of diagnostic tests available is not sufficient for massive testing.

SARS-CoV-2 reinfection caused by the P.1 lineage in Araraquara city, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Reinfection by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-COV-2) has been reported in many countries, suggesting that the virus may continue to circulate among humans despite the possibility of local herd immunity due to massive previous infections. The emergence of variants of concern (VOC) that are more transmissible than the previous circulating ones has raised particular concerns on the vaccines effectiveness and reinfection rates. The P.1 lineage was first identified in December 2020 in Manaus city and is now globally spread. We report the first case of reinfection of SARS-CoV-2 caused by the P.1 variant outside of Manaus. The potential of these new variants to escape naturally and vaccine- induced immunity highlights the need for a global vigilance.

Quarantine and the risk of COVID-19 importation

Using a stochastic model, we assess the risk of importation-induced local transmission chains in locations seeing few or no local transmissions and evaluate the role of quarantine in the mitigation of this risk. We find that the rate of importations plays a critical role in determining the risk that case importations lead to local transmission chains, more so than local transmission characteristics, i.e. strength of social distancing measures (NPI). The latter influences the severity of the outbreaks when they do take place. Quarantine after arrival in a location is an efficacious way to reduce the rate of importations. Locations that see no or low-level local transmission should ensure that the rate of importations remains low. A high level of compliance with post-arrival quarantine followed by testing achieves this objective with less of an impact than travel restrictions or bans.

The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic in Minas Gerais, Brazil: insights from epidemiological data and SARS-CoV-2 whole genome sequencing

The recent emergence of a coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019, has had major public health and economic consequences. Although 61,888 confirmed cases were reported in Brazil by 28 April 2020, little is known about the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in this country. To better understand the recent epidemic in the second most populous state in southeast Brazil - Minas Gerais (MG) - we sequenced 40 complete SARS-CoV-2 genomes from MG cases and examined epidemiological data from three Brazilian states. Both the genome analyses and the geographical distribution of reported cases indicate for multiple independent introductions into MG. Epidemiological estimates of the reproductive number (R) using different data sources and theoretical assumptions suggest the potential for sustained virus transmission despite a reduction in R from the first reported case to the end of April 2020. The estimated date of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Brazil was consistent with epidemiological data from the first case of a returned traveller from Lombardy, Italy. These findings highlight the nature of the COVID-19 epidemic in MG and reinforce the need for real-time and continued genomic surveillance strategies to better understand and prepare for the epidemic spread of emerging viral pathogens..

Modelling the test, trace and quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Testing for detecting the infection by SARS-CoV-2 is the bridge between the lockdown and the opening of society. In this paper we modelled and simulated a test-trace-and-quarantine strategy to control the COVID-19 outbreak in the State of São Paulo, Brasil. The State of São Paulo failed to adopt an effective social distancing strategy, reaching at most 59% in late March and started to relax the measures in late June, dropping to 41% in 08 August. Therefore, São Paulo relies heavily on a massive testing strategy in the attempt to control the epidemic.

Two alternative strategies combined with economic evaluations were simulated. One strategy included indiscriminately testing the entire population of the State, reaching more than 40 million people at a maximum cost of 2.25 billion USD, that would reduce the total number of cases by the end of 2020 by 90%. The second strategy investigated testing only symptomatic cases and their immediate contacts – this strategy reached a maximum cost of 150 million USD but also reduced the number of cases by 90%.

The conclusion is that if the State of São Paulo had decided to adopt the simulated strategy on April the 1st, it would have been possible to reduce the total number of cases by 90% at a cost of 2.25 billion US dollars for the indiscriminate strategy but at a much smaller cost of 125 million US dollars for the selective testing of symptomatic cases and their contacts.