Ambient temperature and cardiovascular mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Mechanistic insights into the cardiovascular effects of acute heat exposure: A multi-omics analysis based on a randomized crossover trial

Heat exposure has been identified as a significant contributory factor in the development of cardiovascular diseases, but the biological mechanisms are not yet fully elucidated. We conducted a randomized crossover trial in healthy adults in Shanghai, China. Each subject was alternatively exposed to moderate temperature (22 °C) and elevated temperature (32 °C) in a chamber for 2 h in random order. Blood pressure (BP) and arterial stiffness were measured before and after each exposure session. Genome-wide DNA methylation, untargeted serum proteomics, metabolomics, and 15 targeted serum biomarkers were analyzed. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze the data. The pathway enrichment was performed at the ingenuity pathway analysis platform. The network-based xMWAS analysis was further conducted. A total of 30 participants (15 males and 15 females) completed the trial, with an average age of 21.7 ± 1.5 years. Heat exposure was associated with higher pulse wave velocity (4.4 %, 95 % CI: 0.2, 6.8), augmentation index normalized to 75 bpm heart rate (190.7 %, 95 % CI: 19.0, 362.3) and reflection magnitude (35.9 %, 95 % CI: 12.3, 59.5). Exposure to heat was significantly associated with changes in 2 biomarkers on systemic inflammation, 2 on oxidative stress, 1 on coagulation, 2 on lipid metabolism, and 2 on atherosclerotic alterations. Multi-omics analyses indicated heat-induced perturbations in pathways were mostly related to systemic inflammation, oxidative stress, coagulation, and lipid metabolism disorder. Acute heat exposure might impair cardiovascular function and promote multiple adverse biological processes, especially those related to atherosclerosis progression and increase of plaque instability.

Conceptualizing myocardial contractility as an emergent property that characterizes myocardial contraction

Myocardial contractility (MC) is a fundamental concept that is widely used to describe the cardiac muscles' mechanical function, yet its definitions in textbooks and literature are vague, inconsistent, and often contradictory. In this article, we categorize these many issues into five groups and conducts a conceptual analysis to redefine MC from a broader, more comprehensive perspective. We propose a functional, three-domain framework of MC consisting of capacity/resource, adaptability, and ability (force (F) and/or velocity (V) generated during muscle contraction), emphasizing the dynamic, non-linear interactions among the three domains and their clinical significance. Specifically, we highlight how interventions targeting MC may produce non-linear effects, suggesting a shift toward optimizing resource use rather than maximizing outputs (i.e., F and/or V of myocardial contraction, the outputs of the ability domain), which could potentially reduce the complications of positive inotropic interventions. We also discuss the implications of several new conceptual developments as the byproducts of the three-domain MC framework. Additionally, we identify system-level emergent properties of MC briefly, including contraction efficiency, circadian rhythm-dependence, temperature-dependence, and history-dependence, with implications for cardiac muscle research, exercise training, and clinical decision-making. The three-domain functional framework of MC resolves the inconsistencies in definitions, differentiates MC from cardiac performance, and offers a structured perspective for facilitating both experimental studies and therapeutic strategies.

Sex differences in the impact of extreme heat on cardiovascular disease outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Climate change is intensifying extreme heat events, posing significant risks to cardiovascular health. While sex differences in heat vulnerability have been observed, the evidence remains inconsistent. This systematic review and meta-analysis examined sex-specific associations between extreme heat exposure and cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes over the past decade.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Embase, and Scopus for studies published between 2004 and 2024 that reported sex-stratified cardiovascular outcomes associated with heat exposure following the PRISMA guidelines. The quality of the evidence was evaluated following the Navigation Guide Criteria. Random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to calculate pooled relative risk ratios (RRR) comparing males to females for studies addressing incremental temperature increase. Heat wave studies were synthesized narratively due to methodological heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Of 6126 articles, 79 met inclusion criteria (62 in meta-analysis, 17 in narrative synthesis), primarily from East Asia, Europe, and North America. A 1 °C temperature increase was associated with elevated cardiovascular risks for both sexes. The pooled relative risk ratio (RRR) comparing males to females was 1.008 [1.002-1.014] for mortality, suggesting slightly higher female vulnerability, but not for morbidity (RRR 0.996 [0.987-1.004]). Significant heterogeneity was noted (Mortality I² = 50.3%, Morbidity I² = 70.3%). Heat wave studies showed inconsistent sex-specific impacts across populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Females showed marginally higher vulnerability to heat-related cardiovascular mortality compared to males, while no significant sex differences were observed for morbidity outcomes. Future research should focus on understanding these mechanisms and developing sex-specific interventions.

Effect modifiers of the temperature-mortality association for general and older adults population of Brazil's metropolitan areas

Ambient temperature effect on mortality varies between places and populations, suggesting the existence of effect modifiers for this association. This study analyzes the influence of geographic, urban, and socioeconomic factors on the ambient temperature effect on non-accidental mortality in the general and older adults population of Brazilian metropolitan areas, and on that associated with circulatory, respiratory, and other mortality in older adults. Effects of this association were estimated for each group in 42 locations using a generalized additive model combined with the nonlinear distributed lag model. A meta-analysis was then performed to estimate the effects at the national and regional levels. Meta-regression determined the influence of effect modifiers. Estimated relative risks of the temperature-mortality association varied between locations in the Brazilian territory. Heat effects on non-accidental mortality at the national level were 1.09 (95%CI: 1.04-1.15) and 1.13 (95%CI: 1.07-1.20) for the General and Older Adult groups, respectively. Cold effects were 1.26 (95%CI: 1.21-1.32) and 1.30 (95%CI: 1.24-1.36) for the General and Older Adult groups, respectively. We observed a greater effect of cold than heat in both groups. For all causes of death, effects of heat and cold were greater in the Southeast and South Brazil. Amplitude of the mean temperature was the factor that best explained the heterogeneity between locations, followed by latitude, income and schooling. Hence, implementing adaptive measures to reduce the ambient temperature effects on mortality depends on the profile of each location.

Exploring the effect of a sweltering environment on the risk of death from cardiovascular diseases

Background

A substantial body of research has demonstrated a notable impact of hot temperatures on mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). However, a paucity of studies has addressed the influence of sweltering conditions on CVD mortality.

Objective

To investigate the effect of sweltering conditions on mortality from CVD among permanent residents of Huizhou City, using the temperature-humidity index (THI) as an indicator.

Methods

This study employs descriptive statistics, distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and general algebraic modeling system (GAMs) with the THI as an indicator in order to examine the impact of sweltering conditions on the mortality of CVD among permanent residents of Huizhou City.

Results

Sweltering conditions increase the risk of death from CVDs and have a cumulative lag effect. The greater the THI, the more pronounced the increase in mortality, and after a certain range, the mortality rate from CVDs increases significantly, and the effect is gender-specific. The lag effect generally peaks in 2-3 days, and the lag effect of stroke mortality is longer and deeper than that of coronary heart disease (CAD) mortality.

Conclusion

Sweltering increased the mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Huizhou city, so we should pay attention to public health intervention strategies under sweltering.

A Review of the Links Between Work and Heart Disease in the 21st Century

This review explores the multifaceted exposures in the workplace that contribute to cardiovascular diseases (CVD), including physical, ergonomics, chemical, biological, psychosocial, and emerging occupational hazards. These well-documented occupational hazards have long been linked to heart disease. Exposures arising from these hazards present significant concerns for worker health and safety. Moreover, heat stress is an emerging and increasingly pervasive threat, exacerbated by climate change, particularly in outdoor, high-exposure industries like agriculture and construction. While the epidemiological links between heat and CVD are well established, there is a critical gap in research on the physiological impacts of heat on workers' cardiovascular health. In particular, migrant workers are especially vulnerable to these occupational hazards, particularly in the absence of targeted, equitable interventions. As global temperatures rise, addressing these occupational exposures is important for protecting the cardiovascular health of the workforce and the expanding field of occupational cardiology.

The impact of temperature on non-typhoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter infections: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of epidemiological evidence

BACKGROUND

As temperatures rise, the transmission and incidence of enteric infections such as those caused by Salmonella and Campylobacter increase. This study aimed to review and synthesise the available evidence on the effects of exposure to ambient temperatures on non-typhoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter infections.

METHODS

A systematic search was conducted for peer-reviewed epidemiological studies published between January 1990 and March 2024, in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science databases. Original observational studies using ecological time-series, case-crossover or case-series study designs reporting the association between ambient temperature and non-typhoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter infections in the general population were included. A random-effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) per 1 °C temperature increase, and further meta regression, and subgroup analyses by climate zone, temperature metrics, temporal resolution, lag period, and continent were conducted. The Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework was used to assess the quality and strength of evidence. The study protocol was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO).

FINDINGS

Out of 3472 results, 44 studies were included in this systematic review encompassing over one million cases each of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections. Geographically, the 44 studies covered 27 countries across five continents and most of the studies were from high income countries. The meta-analysis incorporated 23 Salmonella studies (65 effect estimates) and 15 Campylobacter studies (24 effect estimates). For each 1 °C rise in temperature, the risk of non-typhoidal Salmonella and Campylobacter infections increased by 5% (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.04-1.06), and 5% (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.04-1.07%), respectively, with varying risks across different climate zones. The overall evidence was evaluated as being of "high" quality, and the strength of the evidence was determined to be "sufficient" for both infections.

INTERPRETATION

These findings emphasise the relationship between temperature and the incidence of Salmonella and Campylobacter infections. It is crucial to exercise caution when generalising these findings, given the limited number of studies conducted in low and middle-income countries. Nevertheless, the results demonstrate the importance of implementing focused interventions and adaptive measures, such as the establishment of localised early warning systems and preventive strategies that account for climatic fluctuations. Furthermore, our research emphasises the ongoing need for surveillance and research efforts to monitor and understand the changing dynamics of temperature-related enteric infections in the context of climate change.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council Discovery Projects grant (ARC DP200102571) Program.

Planetary boundaries transgressions: A review on the implications to public health

This literature review systematically examines the impacts of violating planetary boundaries from 2009 to 2023, emphasizing the implications for human health. Planetary boundaries define safe operational limits for Earth's systems, and their transgression poses significant threats to environmental stability and public health. This paper reviews extensive research on the health effects of breaches in these boundaries, including climate change, biodiversity loss, freshwater use, and aerosol loading. The review integrates findings from numerous studies, providing a critical overview of health impacts across various global regions. The analysis underscores the intricate links between planetary boundaries breaching impacts, highlighting urgent policy and governance challenges. The study's outcomes aim to inform policymakers, businesses, and communities, promoting sustainable development and resilience in the face of escalating global challenges.

Heat exposure impacts on urban health: A meta-analysis

The escalating health risks posed by warm weather in urban areas have become a pressing global public health issue. This study undertakes a meta-analysis to evaluate the impact of warm weather on health in urban settings. We comprehensively searched PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science for literature published before September 6, 2023, evaluating evidence quality using the Navigation Guide Criteria. We included original studies utilizing high temperatures or heatwaves as exposure metrics and employing observational designs. A meta-analysis was carried out to assess the relative risk (RR) of the association between high temperatures (or heatwaves) and disease outcomes. Out of 12,893 studies identified, 188 met the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Results demonstrate a statistically significant association between a 1 °C temperature increase and a 2.1 % elevation in disease-related mortality (RR 1.021 [95 % CI 1.018-1.023]), alongside a 1.1 % increase in morbidity (RR 1.011 [95 % CI 1.007-1.016]). Heatwaves also showed associations with increased total mortality (RR 1.224 [95 % CI 1.186-1.264]) and morbidity (RR 1.038 [95 % CI 1.010-1.066]). Subgroup analyses for diseases, sex, age, climatic zones, countries, and time periods consistently indicated heightened disease-related mortality and morbidity linked to high temperatures. Notably, China's urban population faced an elevated mortality risk (RR 1.027 [95 % CI 1.018-1.036]) compared to other countries (RR 1.021 [95 % CI 1.019-1.024]). Mortality associated with high temperatures after 2007 (RR 1.022 [95 % CI 1.015-1.029]) was higher than before 2007 (RR 1.017 [95 % CI 1.013-1.021]), reflecting increased health risks as the global warming accelerates. Our findings underscore the positive association between rising temperatures and/or heatwaves and adverse health outcomes in urban populations. The widespread exposure to high temperatures amplifies health risks across various diseases, demographics, climates, and countries, with potential exacerbation under ongoing global warming. Further research is imperative to delineate factors influencing altered heat exposure impacts.

Long-term exposure to air pollution, greenness and temperature and survival after a nonfatal myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the impact of environmental exposures on mortality risk after a myocardial infarction (MI).

OBJECTIVE

The goal of this study was to evaluate associations of long-term temperature, air pollution and greenness exposures with mortality among survivors of an MI.

METHODS

We used data from the US-based Nurses' Health Study to construct an open cohort of survivors of a nonfatal MI 1990-2017. Participants entered the cohort when they had a nonfatal MI, and were followed until death, loss to follow-up, end of follow-up, or they reached 80 years old, whichever came earliest. We assessed residential 12-month moving average fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2), satellite-based annual average greenness (in a circular 1230 m buffer), summer average temperature and winter average temperature. We used Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for potential confounders to assess hazard ratios (HR and 95% confidence intervals). We also assessed potential effect modification.

RESULTS

Among 2262 survivors of a nonfatal MI, we observed 892 deaths during 19,216 person years of follow-up. In single-exposure models, we observed a HR (95%CI) of 1.20 (1.04, 1.37) per 10 ppb NO2 increase and suggestive positive associations were observed for PM2.5, lower greenness, warmer summer average temperature and colder winter average temperature. In multi-exposure models, associations of summer and winter average temperature remained stable, while associations of NO2, PM2.5 and greenness attenuated. The strength of some associations was modified by other exposures. For example, associations of greenness (HR = 0.88 (0.78, 0.98) per 0.1) were more pronounced for participants in areas with a lower winter average temperature.

CONCLUSION

We observed associations of air pollution, greenness and temperature with mortality among MI survivors. Some associations were confounded or modified by other exposures, indicating that it is important to explore the combined impact of environmental exposures.

Climate change effects in older people's health: A scoping review

BACKGROUND

Climate change has serious consequences for the morbidity and mortality of older adults.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the effects of climate change on older people's health.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted following the Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines and the PRISMA-ScR checklist. Quantitative research and reports from organizations describing the effects of climate change on older people were selected.

RESULTS

Sixty-three full-text documents were selected. Heat and air pollution were the two factors that had the most negative effects on cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality in older people. Mental health and cognitive function were also affected.

CONCLUSIONS

Climate change affects several health problems in older individuals, especially high temperatures and air pollution. Nursing professionals must have the necessary skills to respond to the climate risks in older adults. More instruments are required to determine nursing competencies on climate change and the health of this population group.

PATIENT OF PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION

No patient or public contribution.

"Unravelling the impacts of climatic heat events on cardiovascular health in animal models"

Climate change has led to an increase in high ambient temperatures, causing extreme heat events worldwide. According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), July 2023 marked a historic milestone as the Earth reached its hottest recorded temperature, precisely hitting the critical threshold of 1.5 °C set by the Paris Agreement. This distressing development led to a stark warning from the United Nations, signaling the dawn of what they call "an era of global boiling". The increasing global temperatures can result in high heat stress which leads to various physiological and biochemical alterations in the human body. Given that cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality globally, heat events exacerbate this public health issue. While clinical and in-vitro studies have suggested a range of pathophysiological and biochemical mechanisms underlying the body's response to heat stress, the complex nature of organ-system level interactions makes precise investigation challenging. To address this knowledge gap effectively, the use of animal models exposed to acute or chronic heat stress can be invaluable. These models can closely replicate the multifaceted effects observed in humans during heat stress conditions. Despite extensive independent reviews, limited focus has been shed on the high heat-induced cardiovascular complications and their mechanisms, particularly utilizing animal models. Therefore, in this comprehensive review, we highlight the crucial biomarkers altered during heat stress, contributing significantly to various CVDs. We explore potential mechanisms underlying heat-induced cardiovascular dysfunction and damage, delving into various animal models. While traditional rodent models are commonly employed, we also examine less conventional models, including ruminants, broilers, canines, and primates. Furthermore, we delve into various potential therapeutic approaches and preventive measures. These insights hold significant promise for the development of more effective clinical interventions against the effects of heat stress on the human cardiovascular system.

Rising trend and regional disparities of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient low temperature, 1990-2019: An analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Previous studies on the effect of global warming on the global burden of disease have mainly focussed on the impact of high temperatures, thereby providing limited evidence of the effect of lower temperatures.

Methods

We adopted a three-stage analysis approach using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. First, we explored the global burden of disease attributable to low temperatures, examining variations by gender, age, cause, region, and country. Second, we analysed temporal trends in low-temperature-related disease burdens from 1990 to 2019 by meta-regression. Finally, we fitted a mixed-effects meta-regression model to explore the effect modification of country-level characteristics.

Results

In 2019, low temperatures were responsible for 2.92% of global deaths and 1.03% of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), corresponding to a death rate of 21.36 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 18.26, 24.73) and a DALY rate of 335 (95% UI = 280, 399) per 100 000 population. Most of the deaths (85.12%) and DALYs (94.38%) attributable to low temperatures were associated with ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. In the last three decades, we observed an upward trend for the annual number of attributable deaths (P < 0.001) and a downward trend for the rates of death (P < 0.001) and DALYs (P < 0.001). The disease burden associated with low temperatures varied considerably among regions and countries, with higher burdens observed in regions with middle or high-middle socio-demographic indices, as well as countries with higher gross domestic product per capita and a larger proportion of ageing population.

Conclusions

Our findings emphasise the significance of raising public awareness and prioritising policies to protect global population health from the adverse effects of low temperatures, even in the face of global warming. Particular efforts should be targeted towards individuals with underlying diseases (e.g. cardiovascular diseases) and vulnerable countries or regions (e.g. Central Asia and central Europe).

Exposure to Concurrent Heatwaves and Ozone Pollution and Associations with Mortality Risk: A Nationwide Study in China

BACKGROUND

Concurrent extreme events are projected to occur more frequently under a changing climate. Understanding the mortality risk and burden of the concurrent heatwaves and ozone (O 3 ) pollution may support the formulation of adaptation strategies and early warning systems for concurrent events in the context of climate change.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the mortality risk and excess deaths of concurrent heatwaves and O 3 pollution across 250 counties in China.

METHODS

We collected daily mortality, meteorological, and air pollution data for the summer (1 June to 30 September) during 2013-2018. We defined heatwaves and high O 3 pollution days, then we divided the identified days into three categories: a) days with only heatwaves (heatwave-only event), b) days with only high O 3 pollution (high O 3 pollution-only event), and c) days with concurrent heatwaves and high O 3 pollution (concurrent event). A generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson regression was used to estimate the risk of mortality associated with extreme events for each county. Then we conducted a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the county-specific estimates to derive the overall effect estimates. We used mixed-effects meta-regression to identify the drivers of the heterogeneity. Finally, we estimated the excess death attributable to extreme events (heatwave-only, high O 3 pollution-only, and concurrent events) from 2013 to 2020.

RESULTS

A higher all-cause mortality risk was associated with exposure to the concurrent heatwaves and high O 3 pollution than exposure to a heatwave-only or a high O 3 pollution-only event. The effects of a concurrent event on circulatory and respiratory mortality were higher than all-cause and nonaccidental mortality. Sex and age significantly impacted the association of concurrent events and heatwave-only events with all-cause mortality. We estimated that annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events were 6,249 in China from 2017 to 2020, 5.7 times higher than the annual average excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events from 2013 to 2016. The annual average proportion of excess deaths attributed to the concurrent events in the total excess deaths caused by three types of events (heatwave-only events, high O 3 pollution-only events, and concurrent events) increased significantly in 2017-2020 (31.50%; 95% CI: 26.73%, 35.53%) compared with 2013-2016 (9.65%; 95% CI: 5.67%, 10.81%). Relative excess risk due to interaction revealed positive additive interaction considering the concurrent effect of heatwaves and high O 3 pollution.

DISCUSSION

Our findings may provide scientific basis for establishing a concurrent event early warning system to reduce the adverse health impact of the concurrent heatwaves and high O 3 pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP13790.

Hourly Heat Exposure and Acute Ischemic Stroke

Importance

Previous studies have demonstrated the associations of daily high temperature with hospitalizations and mortality from ischemic stroke, but the hourly association of ambient heat and acute ischemic stroke (AIS) onset has been rarely examined.

Objectives

To evaluate the association between hourly high ambient temperature and the onset of AIS.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted using a nationwide registry that collects data from more than 200 stroke centers in China. Participants were adult patients with AIS who were hospitalized in the warm seasons between January 1, 2019, and December 31, 2021.

Exposures

Hourly temperature and single-hour temperature exposure lag up to 24 hours before the AIS onset (lag 0 hours to lag 24 hours).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcome was onset of AIS. Associations between hourly mean temperatures and AIS onset were analyzed using conditional logistic regression integrated with the distributed lag nonlinear model. Stratification analyses were applied to examine potential association modifiers. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the robustness of the results.

Results

A total of 82 455 patients with AIS (mean [SD] age, 65.8 [11.9] years; 52 267 males [63.4%]) were included in the final analysis. A monotonically increasing risk of AIS onset was associated with higher temperatures. The excess AIS risk occurred immediately at lag 0 hours and persisted for 10 hours. Compared with the reference temperature (12.1 °C), the cumulative odds ratio (OR) over lag 0 to 10 hours of AIS onset associated with extremely high temperature (33.3 °C) was 1.88 (95% CI, 1.65-2.13) nationwide. The exposure-response curve was steeper in the north than in the south (OR, 1.80 [95% CI, 1.53-2.11] vs 1.57 [95% CI, 1.31-1.87]). The ORs were greater for males and patients with a history of dyslipidemia or atrial fibrillation, but the differences were not significant.

Conclusions and Relevance

Results of this study suggest that hourly heat exposure is associated with increased risk of AIS onset. This finding may benefit the formulation of public health strategies to reduce cerebrovascular risk associated with high ambient temperature under global warming.

Countrywide analysis of heat- and cold-related mortality trends in the Czech Republic: growing inequalities under recent climate warming

BACKGROUND

Only little is known about trends in temperature-mortality associations among the most vulnerable subgroups, especially in the areas of central and eastern Europe, which are considered major climatic hotspots in terms of heatwave exposure. Thus, we aimed to assess trends in temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic by sex, age and cause of death, and to quantify the temporal evolution of possible inequalities.

METHODS

We collected daily time series of all-cause (1987-2019) and cause-specific (1994-2019) mortality by sex and age category, and population-weighted daily mean 2-metre temperatures for each region of the Czech Republic. We applied a quasi-Poisson regression model to estimate the trends in region-specific temperature-mortality associations, with distributed lag non-linear models and multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to derive average associations across the country. We then calculated mortality attributable to non-optimal temperatures and implemented the indicator of sex- and age-dependent inequalities.

RESULTS

We observed a similar risk of mortality due to cold temperatures for men and women. Conversely, for warm temperatures, a higher risk was observed for women. Results by age showed a clear pattern of increasing risk due to non-optimum temperatures with increasing age category. The relative risk (RR) related to cold was considerably attenuated in most of the studied subgroups during the study period, whereas an increase in the RR associated with heat was seen in the overall population, in women, in the age category 90+ years and with respect to respiratory causes. Moreover, underlying sex- and age-dependent inequalities experienced substantial growth.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest ongoing adaptation to cold temperatures. Mal/adaptation to hot temperatures occurred unequally among population subgroups and resulted in growing inequalities between the sexes and among age categories.

Time-series analysis of temperature variability and cardiovascular emergency department visits in Atlanta over a 27-year period

BACKGROUND

Short-term temperature variability, defined as the temperature range occurring within a short time span at a given location, appears to be increasing with climate change. Such variation in temperature may influence acute health outcomes, especially cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Most research on temperature variability has focused on the impact of within-day diurnal temperature range, but temperature variability over a period of a few days may also be health-relevant through its impact on thermoregulation and autonomic cardiac functioning. To address this research gap, this study utilized a database of emergency department (ED) visits for a variety of cardiovascular health outcomes over a 27-year period to investigate the influence of three-day temperature variability on CVD.

METHODS

For the period of 1993-2019, we analyzed over 12 million CVD ED visits in Atlanta using a Poisson log-linear model with overdispersion. Temperature variability was defined as the standard deviation of the minimum and maximum temperatures during the current day and the previous two days. We controlled for mean temperature, dew point temperature, long-term time trends, federal holidays, and day of week. We stratified the analysis by age group, season, and decade.

RESULTS

All cardiovascular outcomes assessed, except for hypertension, were positively associated with increasing temperature variability, with the strongest effects observed for stroke and peripheral vascular disease. In stratified analyses, adverse associations with temperature variability were consistently highest in the moderate-temperature season (October and March-May) and in the 65 + age group for all outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that CVD morbidity is impacted by short-term temperature variability, and that patients aged 65 and older are at increased risk. These effects were more pronounced in the moderate-temperature season and are likely driven by the Spring season in Atlanta. Public health practitioners and patient care providers can use this knowledge to better prepare patients during seasons with high temperature variability or ahead of large shifts in temperature.

Using a novel strategy to identify the clustered regions of associations between short-term exposure to temperature and mortality and evaluate the inequality of heat- and cold-attributable burdens: A case study in the Sichuan Basin, China

BACKGROUND

Few studies have focused on the spatially clustered regions in the association between short-term exposure to temperature and mortality, which is important for identifying high-susceptibility population and enhancing the prevention of high/low temperatures. Previous studies have explored the association inequality, but no study has evaluated the inequalities of temperature-attributable burdens, which may be more meaningful for reducing temperature-related regional inequality.

METHODS

Taking the Sichuan Basin (SCB), an economically imbalanced area with high humidity and four distinctive seasons, as an example, we used a novel multi-stage strategy to investigate the two issues. First, distributed lag nonlinear models were independently constructed to obtain the county-level associations between daily temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality. Then, an estimation-error-based spatial scan statistic was used to detect the association-clustered regions. Third, multivariate meta-regression incorporating the identified clustered regions and socioeconomic and natural factors was used to obtain stable county-specific associations, based on which the heat- and cold-attributable deaths were mapped and their inequalities were evaluated using concentration indices and Lorenz curves.

RESULTS

On average, a U-shaped temperature-mortality association was examined. A significantly association-clustered region was detected (P = 0.017), in which heat and cold temperatures presented significantly stronger associations than those in the non-clustered region, particularly for heat temperatures. The cold-attributable deaths (3.5%) were substantially more than the heat-attributable deaths (0.5%). Both presented severe inequalities over counties. Significant temperature-attributable inequalities were also found over per-capital public budget, urbanization rate, employment rate and per-capital GDP. The directions of inequalities over GDP and urbanization rate were opposite between heat and cold temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis provided the first evidence about the clustering of temperature-mortality associations and the inequality of cold- and heat-attributable burdens. Significantly association-clustered regions and heavy temperature-attributable inequalities were found in the SCB. Rural people bore heavier cold-attributable but less heat-attributable mortality risk than urban people, suggesting that different policies should be designed to reduce the temperature-attributable inequalities for heat and cold temperatures and different regions. This novel strategy can provide an interesting new perspective in the association between environmental exposure and human health.

Association between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality in the subtropics

Hazardous thermal conditions resulting from climate change may play a role in cardiovascular disease development. We chose the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) as the exposure metric to evaluate the relationship between thermal conditions and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen, China. We applied quasi-Poisson regression non-linear distributed lag models to evaluate the exposure-response associations. The findings suggest that cardiovascular mortality risks were significantly increased under heat and cold stress, and the adverse effects of cold stress were stronger than heat stress. Referencing the 50th percentile of UTCI (25.4°C), the cumulative risk of cardiovascular mortality was 75% (RRlag0-21 =1.75, 95%CI: 1.32, 2.32) higher in the 1st percentile (3.5°C), and 40% (RRlag0-21=1.40, 95%CI: 1.09, 1.80) higher in the 99th percentile (34.1°C). We observed that individuals older than 65 years were more vulnerable to both cold and heat stress, and females were identified as more susceptible to heat stress than males. Moreover, increased mortality risks of hypertensive disease and cerebrovascular disease were observed under cold stress, while heat stress was related to higher risks of mortality for hypertensive disease and ischemic heart disease. We also observed a stronger relationship between cold stress and ischemic heart disease mortality during the cold season, as well as a significant impact of heat stress on cerebrovascular disease mortality in the warm season when compared to the analysis of the entire year. These results confirm the significant relationship between thermal stress and cardiovascular mortality, with age and sex as potential effect modifiers of this association. Providing affordable air conditioning equipment, increasing the amount of vegetation, and establishing comprehensive early warning systems that take human thermoregulation into account could all help to safeguard the well-being of the public, particularly vulnerable populations, in the event of future extreme weather.

The built environment and cardiovascular disease: an umbrella review and meta-meta-analysis

AIMS

To provide a comprehensive overview of the current evidence on objectively measured neighbourhood built environment exposures in relation to cardiovascular disease (CVD) events in adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We searched seven databases for systematic reviews on associations between objectively measured long-term built environmental exposures, covering at least one domain (i.e. outdoor air pollution, food environment, physical activity environment like greenspace and walkability, urbanization, light pollution, residential noise, and ambient temperature), and CVD events in adults. Two authors extracted summary data and assessed the risk of bias independently. Robustness of evidence was rated based on statistical heterogeneity, small-study effect, and excess significance bias. Meta-meta-analyses were conducted to combine the meta-analysis results from reviews with comparable exposure and outcome within each domain. From the 3304 initial hits, 51 systematic reviews were included, covering 5 domains and including 179 pooled estimates. There was strong evidence of the associations between increased air pollutants (especially PM2.5 exposure) and increased residential noise with greater risk of CVD. Highly suggestive evidence was found for an association between increased ambient temperature and greater risk of CVD. Systematic reviews on physical activity environment, food environment, light pollution, and urbanization in relation to CVD were scarce or lacking.

CONCLUSION

Air pollutants, increased noise levels, temperature, and greenspace were associated with CVD outcomes. Standardizing design and exposure assessments may foster the synthesis of evidence. Other crucial research gaps concern the lack of prospective study designs and lack of evidence from low-to-middle-income countries (LMICs).

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO: CRD42021246580.

Cardiovascular disease burden attributable to non-optimal temperature: analysis of the 1990-2019 global burden of disease

AIMS

Extreme temperatures are increasingly experienced as a result of climate change. Both high and low temperatures, impacted by climate change, have been linked with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Global estimates on non-optimal temperature-related CVD are not known. The authors investigated global trends of temperature-related CVD burden over the last three decades.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The authors utilized the 1990-2019 global burden of disease methodology to investigate non-optimal temperature, low temperature- and high temperature-related CVD deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally. Non-optimal temperatures were defined as above (high temperature) or below (low temperature) the location-specific theoretical minimum-risk exposure level or the temperature associated with the lowest mortality rates. Analyses were later stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI) and world regions. In 2019, non-optimal temperature contributed to 1 194 196 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 963 816-1 425 090) CVD deaths and 21 799 370 (95% UI: 17 395 761-25 947 499) DALYs. Low temperature contributed to 1 104 200 (95% UI: 897 783-1 326 965) CVD deaths and 19 768 986 (95% UI: 16 039 594-23 925 945) DALYs. High temperature contributed to 93 095 (95% UI: 10 827-158 386) CVD deaths and 2 098 989 (95% UI: 146 158-3 625 564) DALYs. Between 1990 and 2019, CVD deaths related to non-optimal temperature increased by 45% (95% UI: 32-63%), low temperature by 36% (95% UI: 25-48%), and high temperature by 600% (95% UI: -1879-2027%). Non-optimal temperature- and high temperature-related CVD deaths increased more in countries with low income than countries with high income.

CONCLUSION

Non-optimal temperatures are significantly associated with global CVD deaths and DALYs, underscoring the significant impact of temperature on public health.

The Impact of Heat Waves on Health Care Services in Low- or Middle-Income Countries: Protocol for a Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Heat waves significantly impact ecosystems and human health, especially that of vulnerable populations, and are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Besides being directly related to climate-sensitive health outcomes, heat waves have indirectly increased the burden on our health care systems. Although the existing literature examines the impact of heat waves and morbidity, past research has mostly been conducted in high-income countries (HICs), and studies on the impact of heat waves on morbidity in low- or middle-income countries (LMICs) are still scarce.

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents the protocol for a systematic review that aims to provide evidence of the impact of heat waves on health care services in LMICs.

METHODS

We will identify peer-reviewed studies from 3 online databases, including the Web of Science, PubMed, and SCOPUS, published from January 2002 to April 2023, using the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines. Quality assessment will be conducted using the Navigation Guide checklist. Key search terms include heatwaves, extreme heat, hospitalization, outpatient visit, burden, health services, and morbidity.

RESULTS

This systematic review will provide insight into the impact of heat waves on health care services in LMICs, especially on emergency department visits, ambulance call-outs, hospital admissions, outpatient department visits, in-hospital mortality, and health care operational costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this review are anticipated to help policymakers and key stakeholders obtain a better understanding of the impact of heat waves on health care services and prioritize investments to mitigate the effects of heat waves in LMICs. This entails creating a comprehensive heat wave plan and ensuring that adequate infrastructure, capacity, and human resources are allocated in the health care sector. These measures will undoubtedly contribute to the development of resilience in health care systems and hence protect the health and well-being of individuals and communities.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42022365471; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=365471.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/44702.

Machine learning analysis and risk prediction of weather-sensitive mortality related to cardiovascular disease during summer in Tokyo, Japan

Climate-sensitive diseases developing from heat or cold stress threaten human health. Therefore, the future health risk induced by climate change and the aging of society need to be assessed. We developed a prediction model for mortality due to cardiovascular diseases such as myocardial infarction and cerebral infarction, which are weather or climate sensitive, using machine learning (ML) techniques. We evaluated the daily mortality of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (CEV) in Tokyo and Osaka City, Japan, during summer. The significance of delayed effects of daily maximum temperature and other weather elements on mortality was previously demonstrated using a distributed lag nonlinear model. We conducted ML by a LightGBM algorithm that included specified lag days, with several temperature- and air pressure-related elements, to assess the respective mortality risks for IHD and CEV, based on training and test data for summer 2010-2019. These models were used to evaluate the effect of climate change on the risk for IHD mortality in Tokyo by applying transfer learning (TL). ML with TL predicted that the daily IHD mortality risk in Tokyo would averagely increase by 29% and 35% at the 95th and 99th percentiles, respectively, using a high-level warming-climate scenario in 2045-2055, compared to the risk simulated using ML in 2009-2019.

The effect of ambient temperature and risk of cardiovascular disease hospitalization in China: a meta-analysis

The effect of ambient temperature on relative risk (RR) of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is different in China than in other countries due to the different geographical environment, climate the different inter- and intra-individual characteristics of the population within China. It is therefore important to integrate information to evaluate the impact of temperature on RR of CVD in China. We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the effect of temperature on RR of CVD. The Web of Science, Google Scholar, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure databases were searched back to 2022 and nine studies were included in the study. The Cochran Q test and I2 statistics were used to assess heterogeneity, while Egger's test was used to assess publication bias. The pooled estimated size of the relationship between ambient temperature and CVD hospitalization in the random effect model was 1.2044 (95%CI: 1.0610-1.3671) for the cold effect and 1.1982 (95%CI: 1.0166-1.4122) for the heat effect. The Egger's test showed a potential publication bias for the cold effect, whereas there was no apparent publication bias for the heat effect. There is a significant effect of ambient temperature on RR of CVD for both the cold effect and heat effect. The effect of socioeconomic factors should be considered more thoroughly in future studies.

Influence of heliogeophysical and climatic factors on the cardiovascular system: a literature review

Despite many years of studying the influence of climatic and heliogeophysical factors on the human body, many issues remain unresolved. On the one hand, this is due, to the diversity and complexity in the study of the natural factors themselves, and on the other hand, to the ambiguous influence of the latter on various functional body systems of the studied groups; these groups, in turn, are heterogeneous depending on the studied problem, and, in addition, different statistical methods are not always applied correctly. The review presents an analysis of modern data reflecting the influence of heliogeophysical and climatic factors on the human cardiovascular system. According to the literature, the most significant of the climatic and heliogeophysical factors are such environmental parameters as temperature, atmospheric pressure, and solar activity. Above factors was found to have a strong influence on cardiovascular system, which is expressed in the development stroke, myocardial infarction and sudden coronary death. Changes in external environment parameters increased the number of calls from the population to emergency services, and their impact on the urban and rural population differed. At the same time, the delay in a cardiovascular event with a change in ambient temperature ranged from 1 to 3 days. Solar anomalies and related indices caused an increase in the number of myocardial infarctions and strokes 1-2 days after the anomalies, while an increase in the number of hypertensive crises was noted 3 days before these anomalies. There is a J-shaped relationship between temperature changes and the risk of cardiovascular events, and a V-shaped relationship between atmospheric pressure and mortality from coronary events with a minimum of mortality at an atmospheric pressure of 760 mm Hg. It has also been shown that diabetes mellitus, male sex and older age were significant factors that increase the risk of cardiovascular events with changing weather conditions.

Effect of Temperature on Emergency Ambulance Call-Outs for Cardiovascular Causes: A Scoping Review

Climate change has increased interest in the effects of the thermal environment on cardiovascular health. Most studies have focused on mortality data. However, pre-hospital care data are better able to evaluate these effects, as they can register the full spectrum of the disease in real time. This scoping review aims to synthesize the epidemiological evidence regarding the effects of the thermal environment on cardiovascular morbidity in the pre-hospital setting, evaluated through ambulance calls. A staged literature search was performed using the PubMed database for the period between 1st January 2000 and 30th March 2023, using the MeSH terms "Weather" AND "Emergency Medical Services". A total of 987 publications were identified that examined the correlation between the thermal environment and ambulance call-outs for cardiovascular causes. The studies were mostly ecological time series, with significant variability in the methodological aspects employed. An increase in the number of ambulance call-outs has been observed in association with low temperatures, both for overall cardiovascular pathologies and for certain pathological subtypes. For high temperatures, no effect has been observed in overall call-outs, although an increase has been observed during heat waves. The demand for ambulances for cardiac arrests is increased by both low and high temperatures and during heat waves. Ambulance call-outs for cardiovascular causes increase with low temperatures and heat waves, with no significant increase in the overall demand associated with high temperatures. Ambulance call-outs for cardiac arrests are the only subtype that is increased by high temperatures.

A systematic review of the effects of cold exposure on pathological cardiac remodeling in mice

Exposure to cold promotes cardiac remodeling, characterized by deleterious effects on structure and function, contributing to increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases. The mechanisms associated with these changes are poorly understood. This review gathers the literature data on the main alterations and mechanisms associated with the adverse cardiac structural and functional remodeling induced by cold exposure in mice. Original studies were identified by searching PubMed, Scopus, and Embase databases from January 1990 to June 2022. This systematic review was conducted in accordance with the criteria established by PRISMA and registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022350637). The risk of bias was evaluated by the SYRCLE. Eligible studies included original papers published in English that evaluated cardiac outcomes in mice submitted to short- or long-time cold exposure and had a control group at room temperature. Seventeen original articles were included in this review. Cold exposure induces pathological cardiac remodeling, characterized by detrimental structural and functional parameters, changes in metabolism and autophagy process, and increases in oxidative stress, inflammation, and apoptosis. In addition, Nppa, AT1_A, Fbp3, BECN, ETA, and MT, appear to play fundamental roles in regulating cardiac remodeling. We suggest that strategies that seek to minimize the CVD risk and adverse effects of cold exposure should target these agents.

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to high ambient temperature across climate zones: methodological framework with a case study

BACKGROUND

With high temperature becoming an increasing health risk due to a changing climate, it is important to quantify the scale of the problem. However, estimating the burden of disease (BoD) attributable to high temperature can be challenging due to differences in risk patterns across geographical regions and data accessibility issues.

METHODS

We present a methodological framework that uses Köppen-Geiger climate zones to refine exposure levels and quantifies the difference between the burden observed due to high temperatures and what would have been observed if the population had been exposed to the theoretical minimum risk exposure distribution (TMRED). Our proposed method aligned with the Australian Burden of Disease Study and included two parts: (i) estimation of the population attributable fractions (PAF); and then (ii) estimation of the BoD attributable to high temperature. We use suicide and self-inflicted injuries in Australia as an example, with most frequent temperatures (MFTs) as the minimum risk exposure threshold (TMRED).

RESULTS

Our proposed framework to estimate the attributable BoD accounts for the importance of geographical variations of risk estimates between climate zones, and can be modified and adapted to other diseases and contexts that may be affected by high temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

As the heat-related BoD may continue to increase in the future, this method is useful in estimating burdens across climate zones. This work may have important implications for preventive health measures, by enhancing the reproducibility and transparency of BoD research.

Association between ambient temperature and cause-specific cardiovascular disease admissions in Japan: A nationwide study

BACKGROUND

Substantial evidence suggests that non-optimal temperatures can increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and morbidity; however, limited studies have reported inconsistent results for hospital admissions depending on study locations, which also lack national-level investigations on cause-specific CVDs.

METHODS

We performed a two-stage meta-regression analysis to examine the short-term associations between temperature and acute CVD hospital admissions by specific categories [i.e., ischemic heart disease (IHD), heart failure (HF), and stroke] in 47 prefectures of Japan from 2011 to 2018. First, we estimated the prefecture-specific associations using a time-stratified case-crossover design with a distributed lag nonlinear model. We then used a multivariate meta-regression model to obtain national average associations.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 4,611,984 CVD admissions were reported. We found cold temperatures significantly increased the risk of total CVD admissions and cause-specific categories. Compared with the minimum hospitalization temperature (MHT) at the 98^th percentile of temperature (29.9 °C), the cumulative relative risks (RRs) for cold (5^th percentile, 1.7 °C) and heat (99^th percentile, 30.5 °C) on total CVD were 1.226 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.195, 1.258] and 1.000 (95% CI: 0.998, 1.002), respectively. The RR for cold on HF [RR = 1.571 (95% CI: 1.487, 1.660)] was higher than those of IHD [RR = 1.119 (95% CI: 1.040, 1.204)] and stroke [RR = 1.107 (95% CI: 1.062, 1.155)], comparing to their cause-specific MHTs. We also observed that extreme heat increased the risk of HF with RR of 1.030 (95% CI: 1.007, 1.054). Subgroup analysis showed that the age group ≥85 years was more vulnerable to these non-optimal temperature risks.

CONCLUSIONS

This study indicated that cold and heat exposure could increase the risk of hospital admissions for CVD, varying depending on the cause-specific categories, which may provide new evidence to reduce the burden of CVD.

Changes in tropospheric air quality related to the protection of stratospheric ozone in a changing climate

Ultraviolet (UV) radiation drives the net production of tropospheric ozone (O3) and a large fraction of particulate matter (PM) including sulfate, nitrate, and secondary organic aerosols. Ground-level O3 and PM are detrimental to human health, leading to several million premature deaths per year globally, and have adverse effects on plants and the yields of crops. The Montreal Protocol has prevented large increases in UV radiation that would have had major impacts on air quality. Future scenarios in which stratospheric O3 returns to 1980 values or even exceeds them (the so-called super-recovery) will tend to ameliorate urban ground-level O3 slightly but worsen it in rural areas. Furthermore, recovery of stratospheric O3 is expected to increase the amount of O3 transported into the troposphere by meteorological processes that are sensitive to climate change. UV radiation also generates hydroxyl radicals (OH) that control the amounts of many environmentally important chemicals in the atmosphere including some greenhouse gases, e.g., methane (CH4), and some short-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Recent modeling studies have shown that the increases in UV radiation associated with the depletion of stratospheric ozone over 1980-2020 have contributed a small increase (~ 3%) to the globally averaged concentrations of OH. Replacements for ODSs include chemicals that react with OH radicals, hence preventing the transport of these chemicals to the stratosphere. Some of these chemicals, e.g., hydrofluorocarbons that are currently being phased out, and hydrofluoroolefins now used increasingly, decompose into products whose fate in the environment warrants further investigation. One such product, trifluoroacetic acid (TFA), has no obvious pathway of degradation and might accumulate in some water bodies, but is unlikely to cause adverse effects out to 2100.

Effects of high temperatures and heatwaves on dengue fever: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Studies have shown that dengue virus transmission increases in association with ambient temperature. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the effect of both high temperatures and heatwave events on dengue transmission in different climate zones globally.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, and Web of Science from January 1990 to September 20, 2022. We included peer reviewed original observational studies using ecological time series, case crossover, or case series study designs reporting the association of high temperatures and heatwave with dengue and comparing risks over different exposures or time periods. Studies classified as case reports, clinical trials, non-human studies, conference abstracts, editorials, reviews, books, posters, commentaries; and studies that examined only seasonal effects were excluded. Effect estimates were extracted from published literature. A random effects meta-analysis was performed to pool the relative risks (RRs) of dengue infection per 1 °C increase in temperature, and further subgroup analyses were also conducted. The quality and strength of evidence were evaluated following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology framework. The review protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO).

FINDINGS

The study selection process yielded 6367 studies. A total of 106 studies covering more than four million dengue cases fulfilled the inclusion criteria; of these, 54 studies were eligible for meta-analysis. The overall pooled estimate showed a 13% increase in risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.13; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11-1.16, I2 = 98.0%) for each 1 °C increase in high temperatures. Subgroup analyses by climate zones suggested greater effects of temperature in tropical monsoon climate zone (RR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.11-1.51) and humid subtropical climate zone (RR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.15-1.25). Heatwave events showed association with an increased risk of dengue infection (RR = 1.08; 95% CI: 0.95-1.23, I2 = 88.9%), despite a wide confidence interval. The overall strength of evidence was found to be "sufficient" for high temperatures but "limited" for heatwaves. Our results showed that high temperatures increased the risk of dengue infection, albeit with varying risks across climate zones and different levels of national income.

INTERPRETATION

High temperatures increased the relative risk of dengue infection. Future studies on the association between temperature and dengue infection should consider local and regional climate, socio-demographic and environmental characteristics to explore vulnerability at local and regional levels for tailored prevention.

FUNDING

Australian Research Council Discovery Program.

Association of Ambient Temperature with Mortality in Resident and Multiethnic Transient Populations in a Desert Climate, 2006-2014

BACKGROUND

Although the association between ambient temperature and mortality in local populations is evident, this relationship remains unclear in transient populations (e.g., due to immigration, mass gatherings, or displacement). The holy city of Mecca annually shelters two populations comprising its residents and the transitory Hajj pilgrims (>2 million people from >180 countries). Both live side by side in a hot desert climate, rendering the development of evidence-based heat-protective measures challenging.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to characterize the ambient temperature-mortality relationship and burden for the Mecca resident and Hajj transient populations, which have distinct levels of adaptation to ambient temperature.

METHODS

We analyzed daily air temperature and mortality data for Mecca residents and pilgrims over nine Hajj seasons between 2006 and 2014, using a fitted standard time-series Poisson model. We characterized the temperature-mortality relationship with a distributed lag nonlinear model with 10 d of lag. We determined the minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and attributable deaths for heat and cold for the two populations.

RESULTS

The median average daily temperature during the Hajj seasons was 30°C (19°C-37°C). There were 8,543 and 10,457 nonaccidental deaths reported during the study period among Mecca residents and pilgrims, respectively. The MMT was 2.5°C lower for pilgrims in comparison with the MMT for Mecca residents (23.5°C vs. 26.0°C). The temperature-mortality relationship shape varied from inverted J to U shape for the Mecca and pilgrim populations, respectively. Neither hot nor cold temperatures had a statistically significant association with mortality in Mecca residents. In contrast, for pilgrims, elevated temperatures were associated with significantly high attributable mortality of 70.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 62.8, 76.0]. The effect of heat on pilgrims was immediate and sustained.

DISCUSSION

Our findings indicate that pilgrims and Mecca residents exposed to the same hot environmental conditions exhibited distinct health outcomes. This conclusion suggests that a precision public health approach may be warranted to protect against high environmental temperature during mass gatherings of diverse populations. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9838.

Risk factors for heat-related illnesses during the Hajj mass gathering: an expert review

Human exposure to a hot environment may result in various heat-related illnesses (HRIs), which range in severity from mild and moderate forms to life-threatening heatstroke. The Hajj is one of the largest annual mass gatherings globally and has historically been associated with HRIs. Hajj attracts over two million Muslim pilgrims from more than 180 countries to the holy city of Makkah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Several modifiable and non-modifiable factors render Hajj pilgrims at increased risk of developing HRIs during Hajj. These include characteristics of the Hajj, its location, population, and rituals, as well as pilgrims' knowledge of HRIs and their attitude and behavior. Makkah is characterized by a hot desert climate and fluctuating levels of relative humidity. Pilgrims are very diverse ethnically and geographically, with different adaptations to heat. Significant proportions of the Hajj population are elderly, obese, and with low levels of fitness. In addition, many have underlying health conditions and are on multiple medications that can interfere with thermoregulation. Other factors are inherent in the Hajj and its activities, including crowding, physically demanding outdoor rituals, and a high frequency of infection and febrile illness. Pilgrims generally lack awareness of HRIs, and their uptake of preventive measures is variable. In addition, many engage in hazardous behaviors that increase their risk of HRIs. These include performing rituals during the peak sunshine hours with no sun protection and with suboptimal sleep, nutrition, and hydration, while neglecting treatment for their chronic conditions. HRIs preventive plans for Hajj should incorporate measures to address the aforementioned factors to reduce the burden of these illnesses in future Hajj seasons. Lessons from the Hajj can be used to inform policy making and HRIs preventive measures in the general population worldwide.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of cold exposure and cardiovascular disease outcomes

Background

Cold exposure has been considered an essential risk factor for the global disease burden, while its role in cardiovascular diseases is still underappreciated. The increase in frequency and duration of extreme cold weather events like cold spells makes it an urgent task to evaluate the effects of ambient cold on different types of cardiovascular disease and to understand the factors contributing to the population's vulnerability.

Methods

In the present systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Scopus, and Cochrane. We included original research that explored the association between cold exposure (low temperature and cold spell) and cardiovascular disease outcomes (mortality and morbidity). We did a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the relative risk (RR) of the association between a 1°C decrease in temperature or cold spells and cardiovascular disease outcomes.

Results

In total, we included 159 studies in the meta-analysis. As a result, every 1°C decrease in temperature increased cardiovascular disease-related mortality by 1.6% (RR 1.016; [95% CI 1.015–1.018]) and morbidity by 1.2% (RR 1.012; [95% CI 1.010–1.014]). The most pronounced effects of low temperatures were observed in the mortality of coronary heart disease (RR 1.015; [95% CI 1.011–1.019]) and the morbidity of aortic aneurysm and dissection (RR 1.026; [95% CI 1.021–1.031]), while the effects were not significant in hypertensive disease outcomes. Notably, we identified climate zone, country income level and age as crucial influential factors in the impact of ambient cold exposure on cardiovascular disease. Moreover, the impact of cold spells on cardiovascular disease outcomes is significant, which increased mortality by 32.4% (RR 1.324; [95% CI 1.2341.421]) and morbidity by 13.8% (RR 1.138; [95% CI 1.015–1.276]).

Conclusion

Cold exposure could be a critical risk factor for cardiovascular diseases, and the cold effect varies between disease types and climate zones.

Systematic Review Registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO, identifier: CRD42022347247.

Abnormal ambient temperature change increases the risk of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: A systematic review and meta-analysis of exposure types, risk, and vulnerable populations

BACKGROUND

There is growing evidence in support of a short-term association between ambient temperature and cardiac arrest attacks that is a serious manifestation of cardiovascular disease and has a high incidence and low survival rate. However, it remains unrecognized about the hazardous temperature exposure types, exposure risk magnitude, and vulnerable populations.

OBJECTIVES

We comprehensively summarize prior epidemiological studies looking at the short-term associations of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) with various temperature exposures among different populations.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Web of Science databases from inception to October 2021 for eligible English language. Temperature exposure was categorized into three types: heat (included high temperature, extreme heat, and heatwave), cold (included low temperature and extreme cold), and temperature variation (included diurnal temperature range and temperature change between two adjacent days). Meta-analysis weighted by inverse variance was used to pool effect estimates.

RESULTS

This study included 15 studies from 8 countries, totaling around 1 million OHCA events. Extreme heat and extreme cold were significantly associated with an increased risk of OHCA, and the pooled relative risks (RRs) were 1.071 [95 % confidence interval (CI): 1.019-1.126] and 1.662 (95%CI: 1.138-2.427), respectively. The risk of OHCA was also elevated by heatwaves (RR = 1.248, 95%CI: 1.091-1.427) and more intensive heatwaves had a greater effect. Notably, the elderly and males seemed to be more vulnerable to the effects of heat and cold. However, we did not observe a significant association between temperature variation and the risk of OHCA (1.005, 95%CI: 0.999-1.012).

CONCLUSION

Short-term exposure to heat and cold may be novel risk factors for OHCA. Considering available studies in limited regions, the temperature effect on OHCA should be urgently confirmed in different regions.

Stock volatility and hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease: results from the National Insurance Claims for Epidemiological Research (NICER) study

BACKGROUND

The association between stock volatility and cardiovascular diseases (CVD) was described during the 2008 Global Stock Market Crash; however, whether the finding in an occasional stock market crash is spurious remains unclear.

METHODS

A time-series design was used to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to daily returns of two major indices and daily hospital admissions for CVD and its subtypes based on claims data from the National Insurance Claims for Epidemiological Research (NICER) study covering 174 major cities in China. The average percentage change in daily hospital admissions for cause-specific CVD per 1% change in daily index returns was calculated because the Chinese stock market policy limits its change by 10% of the previous day's closing price. A Poisson regression in a generalised additive model was used to assess the city-specific association; then, overall national estimations were pooled by random-effects meta-analysis.

FINDINGS

Totally 8,234,164 hospital admissions for CVD were recorded during 2014-2017. Points of the Shanghai closing indices ranged from 1991·3 to 5166·4. A U-shaped association was observed between daily index returns and CVD admissions. Changes of 1% in daily returns of the Shanghai index corresponded to 1·28%(95%CI: 1·04%-1·53%), 1·25%(0·99%-1·51%), 1·42%(1·13%-1·72%), and 1·14%(0·39%-1·89%) increases in hospital admissions for total CVD, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, or heart failure on the same day, respectively. Similar results were observed for the Shenzhen index.

INTERPRETATION

Stock market volatility is associated with an increased CVD admission.

FUNDING

Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2020YFC2003503) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (81973132, 81961128006).

Mortality Risk Related to Heatwaves in Dezful City, Southwest of Iran

BACKGROUND

We aimed to evaluate the impact of heatwaves on daily deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes in the city of Dezful in Iran from 2013 to 2019.

METHOD

We collected daily ambient temperature and mortality and defined 2 types of heatwaves by combining daily temperature ⩾90th in each month of the study period or since 30 years with duration ⩾2 and 3 days. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to study the association between each type of heatwave definition, and deaths due to non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory causes with lags up to 13 days.

RESULTS

There was no discernible correlation in this area, despite the fact that heatwaves raised the risk of death from cardiovascular causes and lowered the risk from respiratory causes. On the other hand, the risk of total non-accidental mortality on days with the heatwaves is significantly higher than normal days. In main effects, the heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, Cumulative Excess Risk (CER) in lag_0-2 was 10.4 and in second heatwave definition, CER values in lag_{0, 0-2, and 0-6} were 12.4, 29.2, and 38.8 respectively). Also, in added effects, heatwaves have a significant relationship with the risk of total non-accidental mortality (in the first heatwave definition, CER in lag_{0 and 0-2} were 1.79 and 4.11 and in the second heatwave definition, CER values in lag_{0, 0-2, and 0-6} were 7.76, 18.35 and 24.87 respectively). In addition, heatwaves appeared to contribute to a cumulative excess risk of non-accidental death among the male group as well as the older adults.

CONCLUSION

However, the results showed that heatwaves could have detrimental effects on health, even in populations accustomed to the extreme heat. Therefore, early warning systems which monitor heatwaves should provide the necessary warnings to the population, especially the most vulnerable groups.

Influences of temperature and humidity on cardiovascular disease among adults 65 years and older in China

Background

The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) on the current aging society in China is substantial. Climate change, including extreme temperatures and humidity, has a detrimental influence on health. However, epidemiological studies have been unable to fully identify the association between climate change and CVD among older adults. Therefore, we investigated the associations between temperature and relative humidity and CVD among older adults in China.

Methods

We used cohort data from the China Longitudinal Health and Longevity Survey (CLHLS) conducted in 2002, 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018. A total of 39,278 Chinese adults 65 years and older participated in the analyses. The average annual temperatures and relative humidity during 2001 and 2017 (before the survey year) at the city level in China were used as the exposure measures. We selected patients with hypertension, heart disease, and stroke to create a sample of CVD patients. The associations between temperature and relative humidity and CVD were analyzed using the generalized estimation equation (GEE) model. Covariates included sociodemographic factors, health status, lifestyle, and cognitive function.

Results

The average annual temperature was negatively correlated with the prevalence of CVD. Every 1°C increase in the average annual temperature reduced the rates of hypertension by 3% [odds ratio (OR): 0.97; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.96-0.97], heart disease by 6% (OR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.92-0.95), and stroke by 5% (OR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.94-0.97). The results of the analyses stratified by sex, urban/rural residence, and educational level were robust. The average annual relative humidity was inversely associated with the likelihood of CVD among older adults. Every 1% increase in the average annual relative humidity reduced the rates of hypertension by 0.4% (OR: 0.996; 95% CI: 0.99-1.00), heart disease by 0.6% (OR: 0.994; 95% CI: 0.99-1.00), and stroke by 0.08% (OR: 0.992; 95% CI: 0.98-1.00). However, the effects were more obvious with higher humidity levels (>70).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest that higher temperatures and relative humidity may reduce the risk of CVD among older adults.

Bayesian Approach to Disease Risk Evaluation Based on Air Pollution and Weather Conditions

BACKGROUND

Environmental factors such as meteorological conditions and air pollutants are recognized as important for human health, where mortality and morbidity of certain diseases may be related to abrupt climate change or air pollutant concentration. In the literature, environmental factors have been identified as risk factors for chronic diseases such as ischemic heart disease. However, the likelihood evaluation of the disease occurrence probability due to environmental factors is missing.

METHOD

We defined people aged 51-90 years who were free from ischemic heart disease (ICD9: 410-414) in 1996-2002 as the susceptible group. A Bayesian conditional logistic regression model based on a case-crossover design was utilized to construct a risk information system and applied to data from three databases in Taiwan: air quality variables from the Environmental Protection Administration (EPA), meteorological parameters from the Central Weather Bureau (CWB), and subject information from the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD).

RESULTS

People living in different geographic regions in Taiwan were found to have different risk factors; thus, disease risk alert intervals varied in the three regions.

CONCLUSIONS

Disease risk alert intervals can be a reference for weather bureaus to issue health warnings. With early warnings, susceptible groups can take measures to avoid exacerbation of disease when meteorological conditions and air pollution become hazardous to their health.

Associations Between Extreme Temperatures and Cardiovascular Cause-Specific Mortality: Results From 27 Countries

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide. Existing studies on the association between temperatures and cardiovascular deaths have been limited in geographic zones and have generally considered associations with total cardiovascular deaths rather than cause-specific cardiovascular deaths.

METHODS

We used unified data collection protocols within the Multi-Country Multi-City Collaborative Network to assemble a database of daily counts of specific cardiovascular causes of death from 567 cities in 27 countries across 5 continents in overlapping periods ranging from 1979 to 2019. City-specific daily ambient temperatures were obtained from weather stations and climate reanalysis models. To investigate cardiovascular mortality associations with extreme hot and cold temperatures, we fit case-crossover models in each city and then used a mixed-effects meta-analytic framework to pool individual city estimates. Extreme temperature percentiles were compared with the minimum mortality temperature in each location. Excess deaths were calculated for a range of extreme temperature days.

RESULTS

The analyses included deaths from any cardiovascular cause (32 154  935), ischemic heart disease (11 745 880), stroke (9 351 312), heart failure (3 673 723), and arrhythmia (670 859). At extreme temperature percentiles, heat (99th percentile) and cold (1st percentile) were associated with higher risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause, ischemic heart disease, stroke, and heart failure as compared to the minimum mortality temperature, which is the temperature associated with least mortality. Across a range of extreme temperatures, hot days (above 97.5th percentile) and cold days (below 2.5th percentile) accounted for 2.2 (95% empirical CI [eCI], 2.1-2.3) and 9.1 (95% eCI, 8.9-9.2) excess deaths for every 1000 cardiovascular deaths, respectively. Heart failure was associated with the highest excess deaths proportion from extreme hot and cold days with 2.6 (95% eCI, 2.4-2.8) and 12.8 (95% eCI, 12.2-13.1) for every 1000 heart failure deaths, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Across a large, multinational sample, exposure to extreme hot and cold temperatures was associated with a greater risk of mortality from multiple common cardiovascular conditions. The intersections between extreme temperatures and cardiovascular health need to be thoroughly characterized in the present day-and especially under a changing climate.

Analysis of the heat- and cold-related cardiovascular mortality in an urban mediterranean environment through various thermal indices

During the last decades the effects of thermal stress on public health have been a great concern worldwide. Thermal stress is determined by air temperature in combination with other meteorological parameters, such as relative humidity and wind speed. The present study is focused on the Mediterranean city of Thessaloniki, Greece and it aims to explore the association between thermal stress and mortality from cardiovascular diseases, using both air temperature and other thermal indices as indicators. For that, an over-dispersed Poisson regression function was used, in combination with distributed lag non-linear models, in order to capture the delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature. Our results revealed a reverse J-shaped exposure-response curve for the total population and females and a U-shaped association for males. In all cases examined, the minimum mortality temperature was identified around the 80th percentile of each distribution. It is noteworthy that despite the fact that the highest risks of cardiovascular mortality were estimated for exposure to extreme temperatures, moderate temperatures were found to cause the highest burden of mortality. On the whole, our estimations demonstrated that the population in Thessaloniki is more susceptible to cold effects and in regard with gender, females seem to be more vulnerable to ambient thermal conditions.

Ability to adapt to seasonal temperature extremes among atrial fibrillation patients. A nation-wide study of hospitalizations in Israel

BACKGROUND

In recent years, temperature fluctuations and adverse weather events have become major concerns, influencing overall mortality and morbidity. While the association between extreme temperatures and atrial fibrillation (AF) has been supported by research, there is limited evidence on the ability of AF patients to adapt to the changing temperatures. We explored this question among AF patients in Israel featured by extreme temperature conditions.

METHODS

We examined the association between exposure to extreme temperatures and hospitalizations related to AF in a nationwide cohort in Israel. A case-crossover design with a distributed nonlinear model (DLNM) was applied to assess possible effects of temperature fluctuations during each season. We considered the 7 days prior to the event as the possible window period.

RESULTS

During 2004-2018 we recorded a total of 54,909 hospitalizations for AF. Low temperatures in winter and high in summer adversely affected AF-related hospitalizations. The effect recorded for the first few weeks of each season was of higher magnitude and decreased or faded off completely as the seasons progressed (OR in winter: from 1.14, 95%CI 0.98, 1.32 to 0.90, 95%CI: 0.77, 1.06;OR in summer: from 1.95, 95%CI: 1.51, 2.52 to 1.22, 95%CI: 0.90, 1.65). Patients living in the south region and patients with low socioeconomic status were more susceptible to extreme temperatures.

CONCLUSIONS

Although extreme hot and cold temperatures are associated with an increased risk of hospitalization for AF, the patients are likely to adapt to temperature change over the course of the first weeks of the season.

Effects of long-term average temperature on cardiovascular disease hospitalizations in an American elderly population

BACKGROUND

Short-term exposure to high or low temperatures is associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Less is known about effects of long-term exposure to high or low temperatures. Prolonged exposure to high or low temperatures might contribute to pathophysiological mechanisms, thereby influencing the development of diseases. Our aim was to evaluate associations of long-term temperature exposure with cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospitalizations.

METHODS

We constructed an open cohort consisting of all fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, aged ≥65, living in the contiguous US from 2000 through 2016 (∼61.6 million individuals). We used data from the 4 km Gridded Surface Meteorological dataset to assess the summer (June-August) and winter (December-February) average daily maximum temperature for each year for each zip code. Cox-equivalent Poisson models were used to estimate associations with first CVD hospitalization, after adjustment for potential confounders. We performed stratified analyses to assess potential effect modification by sex, age, race, Medicaid eligibility and relative humidity.

RESULTS

Higher summer average and lower winter average temperatures were associated with an increased risk of CVD hospitalization. We found a HR of 1.068 (95% CI: 1.063, 1.074) per IQR increase (5.2 °C) for summer average temperature and a HR of 1.022 (95% CI: 1.017, 1.028) per IQR decrease (11.7 °C) for winter average temperature. Positive associations of higher summer average temperatures were strongest for individuals aged <75 years, Medicaid eligible, and White individuals. Positive associations of lower winter average temperatures were strongest for individuals aged <75 years and Black individuals, and individuals living in low relative humidity areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Living in areas with high summer average temperatures or low winter average temperatures could increase the risk of CVD hospitalizations. The magnitude of the associations of summer and winter average temperatures differs by demographics and relative humidity levels.

Global spatiotemporal trends of cardiovascular diseases due to temperature in different climates and socio-demographic index regions from 1990 to 2019

With the rapidly changing climate, assessing the global trends of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) attributed to high and low temperatures in different climate zones and under varying socio-demographic levels is crucial for regulations, preparation, intervention, and clinical practice for CVD. Our study included 204 countries with global CVD data ranging from 1990 to 2019. We obtained the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR); disability-adjusted life rate of CVD attributed to high, low, and non-optimal temperatures; and socio-demographic index (SDI) data from the Global Health Data Exchange. We also downloaded the temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit. These 204 countries were divided into five climate zones and five SDI levels according to the annual average temperature data and SDI in 2019. The temporal trends of CVD burden attributed to high, low, and non-optimal temperatures were estimated by using the cubic regression spline and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM). The total burden of temperature-related CVD has been declining in the last 30 years. However, the burden of CVD attributed to high temperature showed an increasing trend. Among different climate regions, the ASMRs of CVD attributed to high temperature were the highest in the tropical regions, followed by subtropical regions, and the lowest in the boreal regions. In the past 30 years, the burden of CVD attributed to high temperatures has shown a significant increasing trend, while declining trends are observed for non-optimal and low temperatures. The CVD burden attributed to high temperatures is particularly pronounced in warmer and low-SDI regions with an increasing trend of CVD burden due to high temperature.

The Impact of Ambient Temperature on Cardiorespiratory Mortality in Northern Greece

It is well-established that exposure to non-optimum temperatures adversely affects public health, with the negative impact varying with latitude, as well as various climatic and population characteristics. This work aims to assess the relationship between ambient temperature and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, in Northern Greece. For this, a standard time-series over-dispersed Poisson regression was fit, along with a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM), using a maximum lag of 21 days, to capture the non-linear and delayed temperature-related effects. A U-shaped relationship was found between temperature and cardiorespiratory mortality for the overall population and various subgroups and the minimum mortality temperature was observed around the 65th percentile of the temperature distribution. Exposure to extremely high temperatures was found to put the highest risk of cardiorespiratory mortality in all cases, except for females which were found to be more sensitive to extreme cold. It is remarkable that the highest burden of temperature-related mortality was attributed to moderate temperatures and primarily to moderate cold. The elderly were found to be particularly susceptible to both cold and hot thermal stress. These results provide new evidence on the health response of the population to low and high temperatures and could be useful to local authorities and policy-makers for developing interventions and prevention strategies for reducing the adverse impact of ambient temperature.

Associations of ambient temperature with mortality for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke and the modification effects of greenness in Shandong Province, China

BACKGROUND

Evidence is scant on the relative and attributable contributions of ambient temperature on stroke subtypes mortality. Few studies have examined modification effects of multiple greenness indicators on such contributions, especially in China. We quantified the associations between ambient temperature and overall, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality; further examined whether the associations were modified by greenness.

METHODS

We conducted a multicenter time-series analysis from January 1, 2013 to December 31, 2019. we adopted a distributed lag non-linear model to evaluate county-specific temperature-stroke mortality associations. We then applied a random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific effects. Attributable mortality was calculated for cold and heat, defined as temperatures below and above the minimum mortality temperature (MMT). Finally, We conducted a multivariate meta-regression to determine associations between greenness and stroke mortality risks for cold and heat, using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), soil adjusted vegetation index (SAVI), and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) as quantitative indicators of greenness exposure.

RESULTS

In the study period, 138,749 deaths from total stroke were reported: 86,873 ischemic and 51,876 hemorrhagic stroke. We observed significant W-shaped relationships between temperature and stroke mortality, with substantial differences among counties and regions. With MMT as the temperature threshold, 17.16 % (95 % empirical CI, 13.38 %-19.75 %) of overall, 20.05 % (95 % eCI, 16.46 %-22.70 %) of ischemic, and 12.55 % (95 % eCI, 5.59 %-16.24 %) of hemorrhagic stroke mortality were attributable to non-optimum temperature (combining cold and heat), more mortality was caused by cold (14.94 %; 95 % eCI, 11.57 %-17.34 %) than by heat (2.22 %; 95 % eCI, 1.54 %-2.72 %). Higher levels of NDVI, SAVI and EVI were related to mitigated effects of non-optimum temperatures-especially heat.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to non-optimum temperatures aggravated stroke mortality risks; increasing greenness could alleviate that risks. This evidence has important implications for local communities in developing adaptive strategies to minimize the health consequences of adverse temperatures.

Emergency Department Visits and Summer Temperatures in Bologna, Northern Italy, 2010-2019: A Case-Crossover Study and Geographically Weighted Regression Methods

The aim of the study is to evaluate the association between summer temperatures and emergency department visits (EDVs) in Bologna (Italy) and assess whether this association varies across areas with different socioeconomic and microclimatic characteristics. We included all EDVs within Bologna residences during the summers of 2010-2019. Each subject is attributed a deprivation and a microclimatic discomfort index according to the residence. A time-stratified case-crossover design was conducted to estimate the risk of EDV associated with temperature and the effect modification of deprivation and microclimatic characteristics. In addition, a spatial analysis of data aggregated at the census block level was conducted by applying a Poisson and a geographically weighted Poisson regression model. For each unit increase in temperature above 26 °C, the risk of EDV increases by 0.4% (95%CI: 0.05-0.8). The temperature-EDV relationship is not modified by the microclimatic discomfort index but rather by the deprivation index. The spatial analysis shows that the EDV rate increases with deprivation homogeneously, while it diminishes with increases in median income and microclimatic discomfort, with differences across areas. In conclusion, in Bologna, the EDV risk associated with high temperatures is not very relevant overall, but it tends to increase in areas with a low socioeconomic level.

Extreme cold weather and circulatory diseases of older adults: A time-stratified case-crossover study in jinan, China

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate the acute effect of extreme cold weather on circulatory disease mortality of older adults in Jinan, with individual and regional-scale characteristics as subgroup analyses to further identify vulnerable populations.

METHODS

This study contained the death data of Jinan from 2011 to 2020 (Nov-Mar). A time-stratified case-crossover method was used to estimate the effects of extreme cold weather and lags 0-8 days, controlling for holiday and relative humidity. To evaluate the impact of different durations and thresholds of extreme cold weather, we considered 4 cold day and 12 cold wave definitions RESULTS: Our results showed an increase in circulatory disease deaths under several definitions. The number of older adults died of circulatory diseases totaled 92,119 during the study period. In the definitions of cold day, the maximum significant effect ranging from 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03,1.14) to 1.13 (95% CI: 1.04,1.24) and appeared on Lag5 or Lag6. In the definitions of cold wave, the maximum significant effect ranging from 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.12) to 1.14 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.25). The cold effect is mainly attributable to cold day rather than an added effect related to the duration. Our research confirmed that extreme cold weather had a stronger impact on women [maximum effects with an OR of 1.21 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.36) in P1, 1.19 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.36) in M12)], and the effect gradient increased with age.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support the evidence on the impact of extreme cold weather on circulatory disease mortality and provide a basis for policymakers to select target groups to develop policies and reduce the public health burden.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on changes in temperature-sensitive cardiovascular and respiratory disease mortality in Japan

Some cardiovascular and respiratory diseases are triggered by changes in ambient temperature or extremes of temperature. This study aimed to clarify the changes in mortality associated with temperature-sensitive diseases in Japan during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used data from three major cities (Sapporo City, Tokyo 23 wards, and Osaka City) from 2010 to 2019 to determine disease mortality rates and monthly mean temperatures from April to December. If the pandemic had not occurred in 2020, the results showed that temperature-sensitive disease death counts would have increased from 324 to 980, based on a 95% confidence interval estimated from the past 10 years in Sapporo (19-56% increase in actual deaths from 2020), from 651 to 2,653 in Tokyo (10-39% increase), and from 235 to 1,343 in Osaka (8-48% increase). Analyses of meshed population data during the COVID-19 pandemic indicated that inhibiting people's behaviour and outdoor mobility, especially in older men, caused a decrease in mortality.

Compound Risk of Air Pollution and Heat Days and the Influence of Wildfire by SES across California, 2018-2020: Implications for Environmental Justice in the Context of Climate Change

Major wildfires and heatwaves have begun to increase in frequency throughout much of the United States, particularly in western states such as California, causing increased risk to public health. Air pollution is exacerbated by both wildfires and warmer temperatures, thus adding to such risk. With climate change and the continued increase in global average temperatures, the frequency of major wildfires, heat days, and unhealthy air pollution episodes is projected to increase, resulting in the potential for compounding risks. Risks will likely vary by region and may disproportionately impact low-income communities and communities of color. In this study, we processed daily particulate matter (PM) data from over 18,000 low-cost PurpleAir sensors, along with gridMET daily maximum temperature data and government-compiled wildfire perimeter data from 2018-2020 in order to examine the occurrence of compound risk (CR) days (characterized by high temperature and high PM2.5) at the census tract level in California, and to understand how such days have been impacted by the occurrence of wildfires. Using American Community Survey data, we also examined the extent to which CR days were correlated with household income, race/ethnicity, education, and other socioeconomic factors at the census tract level. Results showed census tracts with a higher frequency of CR days to have statistically higher rates of poverty and unemployment, along with high proportions of child residents and households without computers. The frequency of CR days and elevated daily PM2.5 concentrations appeared to be strongly related to the occurrence of nearby wildfires, with over 20% of days with sensor-measured average PM2.5 > 35 μg/m3 showing a wildfire within a 100 km radius and over two-thirds of estimated CR days falling on such days with a nearby wildfire. Findings from this study are important to policymakers and government agencies who preside over the allocation of state resources as well as organizations seeking to empower residents and establish climate resilient communities.