Effect of Antigenic Drift on Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in the United States-2019-2020

Seasonal influenza vaccine performance and the potential benefits of mRNA vaccines

Influenza remains a public health threat, partly due to suboptimal effectiveness of vaccines. One factor impacting vaccine effectiveness is strain mismatch, occurring when vaccines no longer match circulating strains due to antigenic drift or the incorporation of inadvertent (eg, egg-adaptive) mutations during vaccine manufacturing. In this review, we summarize the evidence for antigenic drift of circulating viruses and/or egg-adaptive mutations occurring in vaccine strains during the 2011-2020 influenza seasons. Evidence suggests that antigenic drift led to vaccine mismatch during four seasons and that egg-adaptive mutations caused vaccine mismatch during six seasons. These findings highlight the need for alternative vaccine development platforms. Recently, vaccines based on mRNA technology have demonstrated efficacy against SARS-CoV-2 and respiratory syncytial virus and are under clinical evaluation for seasonal influenza. We discuss the potential for mRNA vaccines to address strain mismatch, as well as new multi-component strategies using the mRNA platform to improve vaccine effectiveness.

Relative Vaccine Effectiveness of Cell- vs Egg-Based Quadrivalent Influenza Vaccine Against Test-Confirmed Influenza Over 3 Seasons Between 2017 and 2020 in the United States

Background

Influenza vaccine viruses grown in eggs may acquire egg-adaptive mutations that may reduce antigenic similarity between vaccine and circulating influenza viruses and decrease vaccine effectiveness. We compared cell- and egg-based quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIVc and QIVe, respectively) for preventing test-confirmed influenza over 3 US influenza seasons (2017-2020).

Methods

Using a retrospective test-negative design, we estimated the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of QIVc vs QIVe among individuals aged 4 to 64 years who had an acute respiratory or febrile illness and were tested for influenza in routine outpatient care. Exposure, outcome, and covariate data were obtained from electronic health records linked to pharmacy and medical claims. Season-specific rVE was estimated by comparing the odds of testing positive for influenza among QIVc vs QIVe recipients. Models were adjusted for age, sex, geographic region, influenza test date, and additional unbalanced covariates. A doubly robust approach was used combining inverse probability of treatment weights with multivariable regression.

Results

The study included 31 824, 33 388, and 34 398 patients in the 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 seasons, respectively; ∼10% received QIVc and ∼90% received QIVe. QIVc demonstrated superior effectiveness vs QIVe in prevention of test-confirmed influenza: rVEs were 14.8% (95% CI, 7.0%-22.0%) in 2017-2018, 12.5% (95% CI, 4.7%-19.6%) in 2018-2019, and 10.0% (95% CI, 2.7%-16.7%) in 2019-2020.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated consistently superior effectiveness of QIVc vs QIVe in preventing test-confirmed influenza over 3 seasons characterized by different circulating viruses and degrees of egg adaptation.

Trivalent mRNA vaccine-candidate against seasonal flu with cross-specific humoral immune response

Seasonal influenza remains a serious global health problem, leading to high mortality rates among the elderly and individuals with comorbidities. Vaccination is generally accepted as the most effective strategy for influenza prevention. While current influenza vaccines are effective, they still have limitations, including narrow specificity for certain serological variants, which may result in a mismatch between vaccine antigens and circulating strains. Additionally, the rapid variability of the virus poses challenges in providing extended protection beyond a single season. Therefore, mRNA technology is particularly promising for influenza prevention, as it enables the rapid development of multivalent vaccines and allows for quick updates of their antigenic composition. mRNA vaccines have already proven successful in preventing COVID-19 by eliciting rapid cellular and humoral immune responses. In this study, we present the development of a trivalent mRNA vaccine candidate, evaluate its immunogenicity using the hemagglutination inhibition assay, ELISA, and assess its efficacy in animals. We demonstrate the higher immunogenicity of the mRNA vaccine candidate compared to the inactivated split influenza vaccine and its enhanced ability to generate a cross-specific humoral immune response. These findings highlight the potential mRNA technology in overcoming current limitations of influenza vaccines and hold promise for ensuring greater efficacy in preventing seasonal influenza outbreaks.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness Pre-pandemic Among Adults Hospitalized With Congestive Heart Failure or Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Older Adults

BACKGROUND

Data are limited on influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) in the prevention of influenza-related hospitalizations in older adults and those with underlying high-risk comorbidities.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, test-negative, case-control study at 2 US hospitals from October 2018-March 2020 among adults aged ≥50 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) and adults ≥18 years admitted with congestive heart failure (CHF) or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Adults were eligible if they resided in 1 of 8 counties in metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swabs were tested using BioFire FilmArray (bioMérieux, Inc.) respiratory panel, and standard-of-care molecular results were included when available. Influenza vaccination history was determined from the Georgia vaccine registry and medical records. We used multivariable logistic regression to control for potential confounders and to determine 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 3090 eligible adults, 1562 (50.6%) were enrolled. Of the 1515 with influenza vaccination history available, 701 (46.2%) had received vaccination during that season. Influenza was identified in 37 (5.3%) vaccinated versus 78 (9.6%) unvaccinated participants. After adjustment for age, race/ethnicity, immunosuppression, month, and season, pooled VE for any influenza-related hospitalization in the eligible study population was 63.1% (95% CI, 43.8-75.8%). Adjusted VE against influenza-related hospitalization for ARI in adults ≥50 years was 55.9% (29.9-72.3%) and adjusted VE against influenza-related CHF/COPD exacerbation in adults ≥18 years was 80.3% (36.3-93.9%).

CONCLUSIONS

Influenza vaccination was effective in preventing influenza-related hospitalizations in adults aged ≥50 years and those with CHF/COPD exacerbations during the 2018-2020 seasons.

Immunogenicity of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines Against Mismatched Influenza Strains in Older Adults: A Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

Antigenic drift is a major driver of viral evolution and a primary reason why influenza vaccines must be reformulated annually. Mismatch between vaccine and circulating viral strains negatively affects vaccine effectiveness and often contributes to higher rates of influenza-related hospitalizations and deaths, particularly in years dominated by A(H3N2). Several countries recommend enhanced influenza vaccines for older adults, who are at the highest risk of severe influenza complications and mortality. The immunogenicity of enhanced vaccines against heterologous A(H3N2) strains has been examined in nine studies to date. In six studies, an enhanced, licensed MF59-adjuvanted trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (aIIV3) consistently increased heterologous antibody titers relative to standard influenza vaccine, with evidence of a broad heterologous immune response across multiple genetic clades. In one study, licensed high-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (HD-IIV3) also induced higher heterologous antibody titers than standard influenza vaccine. In a study comparing a higher dose licensed quadrivalent recombinant influenza vaccine (RIV4) with HD-IIV3 and aIIV3, no significant differences in antibody titers against a heterologous strain were observed, although seroconversion rates were higher with RIV4 versus comparators. With the unmet medical need for improved influenza vaccines, the paucity of studies especially with enhanced vaccines covering mismatched strains highlights a need for further investigation of cross-protection in older adults.

Relative Effectiveness of the MF59®-Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccine Versus High-Dose and Non-Adjuvanted Influenza Vaccines in Preventing Cardiorespiratory Hospitalizations During the 2019-2020 US Influenza Season

BACKGROUND

Adults ≥ 65 years of age have suboptimal influenza vaccination responses compared to younger adults due to age-related immunosenescence. Two vaccines were specifically developed to enhance protection: MF59-adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccine (aIIV3) and high-dose egg-based trivalent influenza vaccine (HD-IIV3e).

METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study conducted using US electronic medical records linked to claims data during the 2019-2020 influenza season, we compared the relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of aIIV3 with HD-IIV3e and a standard-dose non-adjuvanted egg-based quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV4e) for the prevention of cardiorespiratory hospitalizations, including influenza hospitalizations. We evaluated outcomes in the "any" diagnosis position and the "admitting" position on the claim. A doubly robust methodology using inverse probability of treatment weighting and logistic regression was used to adjust for covariate imbalance. rVE was calculated as 100 * (1 - ORadjusted).

RESULTS

The study included 4,299,594 adults ≥ 65 years of age who received aIIV3, HD-IIV3e, or IIV4e. Overall, aIIV3 was associated with lower proportions of cardiorespiratory hospitalizations with diagnoses in any position compared to HD-IIV3e (rVE = 3.9% [95% CI, 2.7-5.0]) or IIV4e (9.0% [95% CI, 7.7-10.4]). Specifically, aIIV3 was more effective compared with HD-IIV3e and IIV4e in preventing influenza hospitalizations (HD-IIV3e: 9.7% [95% CI, 1.9-17.0]; IIV4e: 25.3% [95% CI, 17.7-32.2]). Consistent trends were observed for admitting diagnoses.

CONCLUSION

Relative to both HD-IIV3e and IIV4e, aIIV3 provided improved protection from cardiorespiratory or influenza hospitalizations.

Antigenic drift and immunity gap explain reduction in protective responses against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study of human sera collected in 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2023

BACKGROUND

Non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a marked reduction in influenza infections globally. The absence of influenza has raised concerns of waning immunity, and potentially more severe influenza seasons after the pandemic.

METHODS

To evaluate immunity towards influenza post-COVID-19 pandemic we have assessed influenza A epidemics in Norway from October 2016 to June 2023 and measured antibodies against circulating strains of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) in different age groups by hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assays in a total of 3364 serum samples collected in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023.

RESULTS

Influenza epidemics in Norway from October 2016 until June 2023 were predominately influenza As, with a mixture of A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) subtype predominance. We did not observe higher numbers of infections during the influenza epidemics following the COVID-19 pandemic than in pre-COVID-19 seasons. Frequencies of protective HAI titers against A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses were reduced in sera collected in 2021 and 2022, compared to sera collected in 2019. The reduction could, however, largely be explained by antigenic drift of new virus strains, as protective HAI titers remained stable against the same strain from one season to the next. However, we observed the development of an immunity gap in the youngest children during the pandemic which resulted in a prominent reduction in HAI titers against A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2021 and 2022. The immunity gap was partially closed in sera collected in 2023 following the A(H1N1)pdm09-dominated influenza seasons of 2022/2023. During the 2022/2023 epidemic, drift variants of A(H1N1)pdm09 belonging to the 5a.2a.1 clade emerged, and pre-season HAI titers were significantly lower against this clade compared to the ancestral 5a.2 clade.

CONCLUSION

The observed reduction in protective antibodies against A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) viruses post COVID-19 is best explained by antigenic drift of emerging viruses, and not waning of antibody responses in the general population. However, the absence of influenza during the pandemic resulted in an immunity gap in the youngest children. While this immunity gap was partially closed following the 2022/2023 influenza season, children with elevated risk of severe infection should be prioritized for vaccination.

Strategy to develop broadly effective multivalent COVID-19 vaccines against emerging variants based on Ad5/35 platform

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron strain has evolved into highly divergent variants with several sub-lineages. These newly emerging variants threaten the efficacy of available COVID-19 vaccines. To mitigate the occurrence of breakthrough infections and re-infections, and more importantly, to reduce the disease burden, it is essential to develop a strategy for producing updated multivalent vaccines that can provide broad neutralization against both currently circulating and emerging variants. We developed bivalent vaccine AdCLD-CoV19-1 BA.5/BA.2.75 and trivalent vaccines AdCLD-CoV19-1 XBB/BN.1/BQ.1.1 and AdCLD-CoV19-1 XBB.1.5/BN.1/BQ.1.1 using an Ad5/35 platform-based non-replicating recombinant adenoviral vector. We compared immune responses elicited by the monovalent and multivalent vaccines in mice and macaques. We found that the BA.5/BA.2.75 bivalent and the XBB/BN.1/BQ.1.1 and XBB.1.5/BN.1/BQ.1.1 trivalent vaccines exhibited improved cross-neutralization ability compared to their respective monovalent vaccines. These data suggest that the developed multivalent vaccines enhance immunity against circulating Omicron subvariants and effectively elicit neutralizing antibodies across a broad spectrum of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Nucleic acid-based electrochemical biosensor for detection of influenza B by gold nanoparticles

The influenza virus is a pervasive pathogen that exhibits increased prevalence during colder seasons, resulting in a significant annual occurrence of infections. Notably, pharmaceutical interventions effective against influenza A strains often exhibit limited efficacy against influenza B variants. Against this backdrop, the need for innovative approaches to accurately and swiftly differentiate and detect influenza B becomes evident. Biosensors play a pivotal role in this detection process, offering rapid, specific, and sensitive identification of the virus, facilitating timely intervention and containment efforts. Oligonucleotide sequences targeting the conserved B/Victoria/2/87 influenza virus NP region were designed. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from patients suspected of influenza virus infection, and viral RNA was extracted. RNA quality was assessed through one-step PCR. cDNA synthesis was performed using random hexamers, and real-time PCR quantified the influenza genome. Gold nanoparticles were immobilized on a surface to immobilize the specific DNA probe, and electrochemical hybridization was electrochemically followed. The biosensor exhibited high selectivity and effective distinction of complementary sequences from mismatches and influenza virus cDNA genome. The biosensor successfully detected the influenza B virus genome in real samples. Non-influenza samples yielded no significant hybridization signals. The comparison between the results obtained from the biosensor and real-time PCR revealed full agreement of these methods. The biosensor utilized electrochemical detection of hybridization and proved effective in detecting the influenza B virus genome with high specificity, sensitivity, and selectivity. Comparative analysis with real-time PCR underscored the accuracy and potential applicability of the biosensor in rapid and specific virus detection. This innovative approach holds promise for future diagnostic and epidemiological applications in detecting influenza B virus and other pathogens.

Differential interferon responses to influenza A and B viruses in primary ferret respiratory epithelial cells

Influenza B viruses (IBV) cocirculate with influenza A viruses (IAV) and cause periodic epidemics of disease, yet antibody and cellular responses following IBV infection are less well understood. Using the ferret model for antisera generation for influenza surveillance purposes, IAV resulted in robust antibody responses following infection, whereas IBV required an additional booster dose, over 85% of the time, to generate equivalent antibody titers. In this study, we utilized primary differentiated ferret nasal epithelial cells (FNECs) which were inoculated with IAV and IBV to study differences in innate immune responses which may result in differences in adaptive immune responses in the host. FNECs were inoculated with IAV (H1N1pdm09 and H3N2 subtypes) or IBV (B/Victoria and B/Yamagata lineages) and assessed for 72 h. Cells were analyzed for gene expression by quantitative real-time PCR, and apical and basolateral supernatants were assessed for virus kinetics and interferon (IFN), respectively. Similar virus kinetics were observed with IAV and IBV in FNECs. A comparison of gene expression and protein secretion profiles demonstrated that IBV-inoculated FNEC expressed delayed type-I/II IFN responses and reduced type-III IFN secretion compared to IAV-inoculated cells. Concurrently, gene expression of Thymic Stromal Lymphopoietin (TSLP), a type-III IFN-induced gene that enhances adaptive immune responses, was significantly downregulated in IBV-inoculated FNECs. Significant differences in other proinflammatory and adaptive genes were suppressed and delayed following IBV inoculation. Following IBV infection, ex vivo cell cultures derived from the ferret upper respiratory tract exhibited reduced and delayed innate responses which may contribute to reduced antibody responses in vivo.IMPORTANCEInfluenza B viruses (IBV) represent nearly one-quarter of all human influenza cases and are responsible for significant clinical and socioeconomic impacts but do not pose the same pandemic risks as influenza A viruses (IAV) and have thus received much less attention. IBV accounts for greater severity and deaths in children, and vaccine efficacy remains low. The ferret can be readily infected with human clinical isolates and demonstrates a similar course of disease and immune responses. IBV, however, generates lower antibodies in ferrets than IAV following the challenge. To determine whether differences in initial innate responses following infection may affect the development of robust adaptive immune responses, ferret respiratory tract cells were isolated, infected with IAV/IBV, and compared. Understanding the differences in the initial innate immune responses to IAV and IBV may be important in the development of more effective vaccines and interventions to generate more robust protective immune responses.

Quantifying the impact of pre-vaccination titre and vaccination history on influenza vaccine immunogenicity

Epidemiological studies suggest that heterogeneity in influenza vaccine antibody response is associated with host factors, including pre-vaccination immune status, age, gender, and vaccination history. However, the pattern of reported associations varies between studies. To better understand the underlying influences on antibody responses, we combined host factors and vaccine-induced in-host antibody kinetics from a cohort study conducted across multiple seasons with a unified analysis framework. We developed a flexible individual-level Bayesian model to estimate associations and interactions between host factors, including pre-vaccine HAI titre, age, sex, vaccination history and study setting, and vaccine-induced HAI titre antibody boosting and waning. We applied the model to derive population-level and individual effects of post-vaccine antibody kinetics for vaccinating and circulating strains for A(H1N1) and A(H3N2) influenza subtypes. We found that post-vaccine HAI titre dynamics were significantly influenced by pre-vaccination HAI titre and vaccination history and that lower pre-vaccination HAI titre results in longer durations of seroprotection (HAI titre equal to 1:40 or higher). Consequently, for A(H1N1), our inference finds that the expected duration of seroprotection post-vaccination was 171 (95% Posterior Predictive Interval[PPI] 128-220) and 159 (95% PPI 120-200) days longer for those who are infrequently vaccinated (<2 vaccines in last five years) compared to those who are frequently vaccinated (2 or more vaccines in the last five years) at pre-vaccination HAI titre values of 1:10 and 1:20 respectively. In addition, we found significant differences in the empirical distributions that describe the individual-level duration of seroprotection for A(H1N1) circulating strains. In future, studies that rely on serological endpoints should include the impact of pre-vaccine HAI titre and prior vaccination status on seropositivity and seroconversion estimates, as these significantly influence an individual's post-vaccination antibody kinetics.

The association between influenza vaccine effectiveness and egg-based manufacturing technology: literature review and US expert consensus

BACKGROUND

Influenza is associated with significant disease burden in the US and is currently best controlled by vaccination programs. Influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) is low and may be reduced by several factors, including egg adaptations. Although non-egg-based influenza vaccines reportedly have greater VE in egg-adapted seasons, evidence for egg adaptations' reduction of VE is indirect and dissociated, apart from two previous European consensuses.

METHODS

This study replicated the methodology used in a 2020 literature review and European consensus, providing an updated review and consensus opinion of 10 US experts on the evidence for a mechanistic basis for reduction of VE due to egg-based manufacturing methods. A mechanistic basis was assumed if sufficient evidence was found for underlying principles proposed to give rise to such an effect. Evidence for each principle was brought forward from the 2020 review and identified here by structured literature review and expert panel. Experts rated the strength of support for each principle and a mechanistic basis for reduction of VE due to egg-based influenza vaccine manufacture in a consensus method (consensus for strong/very strong evidence = ≥ 3.5 on 5-point Likert scale).

RESULTS

Experts assessed 251 references (from previous study: 185; this study: 66). The majority of references for all underlying principles were rated as strong or very strong supporting evidence (52-86%). Global surveillance, WHO candidate vaccine virus selection, and manufacturing stages involving eggs were identified as most likely to impact influenza VE.

CONCLUSION

After review of extensive evidence for reduction of VE due to egg-based influenza vaccine manufacture, influenza experts in the US joined those in Europe in unanimous agreement for a mechanistic basis for the effect. Vaccine providers and administrators should consider use of non-egg-based influenza vaccine manufacture to reduce the risk of egg adaptations and likely impact on VE.

2023/24 mid-season influenza and Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine effectiveness estimates from the Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network (SPSN)

The Canadian Sentinel Practitioner Surveillance Network reports mid-season 2023/24 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 63% (95% CI: 51-72) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, lower for clade 5a.2a.1 (56%; 95% CI: 33-71) than clade 5a.2a (67%; 95% CI: 48-80), and lowest against influenza A(H3N2) (40%; 95% CI: 5-61). The Omicron XBB.1.5 vaccine protected comparably well, with VE of 47% (95% CI: 21-65) against medically attended COVID-19, higher among people reporting a prior confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection at 67% (95% CI: 28-85).

FLUAV RAM-IGIP: A modified live influenza virus vaccine that enhances humoral and mucosal responses against influenza

Current influenza A vaccines fall short, leaving both humans and animals vulnerable. To address this issue, we have developed attenuated modified live virus (MLV) vaccines against influenza using genome rearrangement techniques targeting the internal gene segments of FLUAV. The rearranged M2 (RAM) strategy involves cloning the M2 ORF downstream of the PB1 ORF in segment 2 and incorporating multiple early stop codons within the M2 ORF in segment 7. Additionally, the IgA-inducing protein (IGIP) coding region was inserted into the HA segment to further attenuate the virus and enhance protective mucosal responses. RAM-IGIP viruses exhibit similar growth rates to wild type (WT) viruses in vitro and remain stable during multiple passages in cells and embryonated eggs. The safety, immunogenicity, and protective efficacy of the RAM-IGIP MLV vaccine against the prototypical 2009 pandemic H1N1 strain A/California/04/2009 (H1N1) (Ca/04) were evaluated in Balb/c mice and compared to a prototypic cold-adapted live attenuated virus vaccine. The results demonstrate that the RAM-IGIP virus exhibits attenuated virulence in vivo. Mice vaccinated with RAM-IGIP and subsequently challenged with an aggressive lethal dose of the Ca/04 strain exhibited complete protection. Analysis of the humoral immune response revealed that the inclusion of IGIP enhanced the production of neutralizing antibodies and augmented the antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity response. Similarly, the RAM-IGIP potentiated the mucosal immune response against various FLUAV subtypes. Moreover, increased antibodies against NP and NA responses were observed. These findings support the development of MLVs utilizing genome rearrangement strategies in conjunction with the incorporation of immunomodulators.

IMPORTANCE

Current influenza vaccines offer suboptimal protection, leaving both humans and animals vulnerable. Our novel attenuated MLV vaccine, built by rearranging FLUAV genome segments and incorporating the IgA-inducing protein, shows promising results. This RAM-IGIP vaccine exhibits safe attenuation, robust immune responses, and complete protection against lethal viral challenge in mice. Its ability to stimulate broad-spectrum humoral and mucosal immunity against diverse FLUAV subtypes makes it a highly promising candidate for improved influenza vaccines.

PREDAC-CNN: predicting antigenic clusters of seasonal influenza A viruses with convolutional neural network

Vaccination stands as the most effective and economical strategy for prevention and control of influenza. The primary target of neutralizing antibodies is the surface antigen hemagglutinin (HA). However, ongoing mutations in the HA sequence result in antigenic drift. The success of a vaccine is contingent on its antigenic congruence with circulating strains. Thus, predicting antigenic variants and deducing antigenic clusters of influenza viruses are pivotal for recommendation of vaccine strains. The antigenicity of influenza A viruses is determined by the interplay of amino acids in the HA1 sequence. In this study, we exploit the ability of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to extract spatial feature representations in the convolutional layers, which can discern interactions between amino acid sites. We introduce PREDAC-CNN, a model designed to track antigenic evolution of seasonal influenza A viruses. Accessible at http://predac-cnn.cloudna.cn, PREDAC-CNN formulates a spatially oriented representation of the HA1 sequence, optimized for the convolutional framework. It effectively probes interactions among amino acid sites in the HA1 sequence. Also, PREDAC-CNN focuses exclusively on physicochemical attributes crucial for the antigenicity of influenza viruses, thereby eliminating unnecessary amino acid embeddings. Together, PREDAC-CNN is adept at capturing interactions of amino acid sites within the HA1 sequence and examining the collective impact of point mutations on antigenic variation. Through 5-fold cross-validation and retrospective testing, PREDAC-CNN has shown superior performance in predicting antigenic variants compared to its counterparts. Additionally, PREDAC-CNN has been instrumental in identifying predominant antigenic clusters for A/H3N2 (1968-2023) and A/H1N1 (1977-2023) viruses, significantly aiding in vaccine strain recommendation.

Determinants of epidemic size and the impacts of lulls in seasonal influenza virus circulation

During the COVID-19 pandemic, levels of seasonal influenza virus circulation were unprecedentedly low, leading to concerns that a lack of exposure to influenza viruses, combined with waning antibody titres, could result in larger and/or more severe post-pandemic seasonal influenza epidemics. However, in most countries the first post-pandemic influenza season was not unusually large and/or severe. Here, based on an analysis of historical influenza virus epidemic patterns from 2002 to 2019, we show that historic lulls in influenza virus circulation had relatively minor impacts on subsequent epidemic size and that epidemic size was more substantially impacted by season-specific effects unrelated to the magnitude of circulation in prior seasons. From measurements of antibody levels from serum samples collected each year from 2017 to 2021, we show that the rate of waning of antibody titres against influenza virus during the pandemic was smaller than assumed in predictive models. Taken together, these results partially explain why the re-emergence of seasonal influenza virus epidemics was less dramatic than anticipated and suggest that influenza virus epidemic dynamics are not currently amenable to multi-season prediction.

Influenza burden averted with a cell-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine compared with egg-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine

BACKGROUND

Cell-based quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4c) avoid egg-adaptive mutations found in egg-based production, improving vaccine effectiveness (VE). Studies demonstrate improved VE for IIV4c relative to egg-based quadrivalent inactivated influenza vaccines (IIV4).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We built on a static compartmental model developed by the CDC to estimate the influenza burden in persons 0-64 years that would be additionally averted by vaccination with IIV4c vs. IIV4. Model inputs were based on published data from 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 Northern Hemisphere influenza seasons for the US.

RESULTS

Over 3 influenza seasons, relative to IIV4, IIV4c would avert 31-39% more symptomatic cases, 29-40% more outpatient visits, 29-38% more hospitalizations and ICU admissions, and 34-49% more deaths vs. IIV4. In a deterministic sensitivity analysis, the main drivers were the relative VE of IIV4c vs. IIV4 in the 2017-2018 season and influenza burden estimates for the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the interquartile range of symptomatic cases was ± 13% of baseline in 2017-2018, ±8% in 2018-2019, and ± 7% in 2019-2020.

CONCLUSIONS

IIV4c prevented significantly more symptomatic cases, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, and deaths than IIV4 in persons aged 0-64 years over 3 influenza seasons.

Real world evidence for public health decision-making on vaccination policies: perspectives from an expert roundtable

INTRODUCTION

Influenza causes significant morbidity and mortality, but influenza vaccine uptake remains below most countries' targets. Vaccine policy recommendations vary, as do procedures for reviewing and appraising the evidence.

AREAS COVERED

During a series of roundtable discussions, we reviewed procedures and methodologies used by health ministries in four European countries to inform vaccine recommendations. We review the type of evidence currently recommended by each health ministry and the range of approaches toward considering randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and real-world evidence (RWE) studies when setting influenza vaccine recommendations.

EXPERT OPINION

Influenza vaccine recommendations should be based on data from both RCTs and RWE studies of efficacy, effectiveness, and safety. Such data should be considered alongside health-economic, cost-effectiveness, and budgetary factors. Although RCT data are more robust and less prone to bias, well-designed RWE studies permit timely evaluation of vaccine benefits, effectiveness comparisons over multiple seasons in large populations, and detection of rare adverse events, under real-world conditions. Given the variability of vaccine effectiveness due to influenza virus mutations and increasing diversification of influenza vaccines, we argue that consideration of both RWE and RCT evidence is the best approach to more nuanced and timely updates of influenza vaccine recommendations.

Co-evolution of immunity and seasonal influenza viruses

Seasonal influenza viruses cause recurring global epidemics by continually evolving to escape host immunity. The viral constraints and host immune responses that limit and drive the evolution of these viruses are increasingly well understood. However, it remains unclear how most of these advances improve the capacity to reduce the impact of seasonal influenza viruses on human health. In this Review, we synthesize recent progress made in understanding the interplay between the evolution of immunity induced by previous infections or vaccination and the evolution of seasonal influenza viruses driven by the heterogeneous accumulation of antibody-mediated immunity in humans. We discuss the functional constraints that limit the evolution of the viruses, the within-host evolutionary processes that drive the emergence of new virus variants, as well as current and prospective options for influenza virus control, including the viral and immunological barriers that must be overcome to improve the effectiveness of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Influenza vaccine: a review on current scenario and future prospects

Vaccination is a crucial tool in preventing influenza, but it requires annual updates in vaccine composition due to the ever-changing nature of the flu virus. While healthcare and economic burdens have reduced, the virus remains a challenge. Research conducted over the past decade has revealed pathways for improvement through both basic and clinical studies. Viral surveillance plays a vital role in the better selection of candidate viruses for vaccines and the early detection of drug-resistant strains.This page offers a description of future vaccine developments and an overview of current vaccine options. In the coming years, we anticipate significant changes in vaccine production, moving away from traditional egg-based methods towards innovative technologies such as DNA and RNA vaccines. These newer approaches offer significant advantages over traditional egg-based and cell culture-based influenza vaccine manufacturing.

A micro-electroporation/electrophoresis-based vaccine screening system reveals the impact of vaccination orders on cross-protective immunity

The constant emergence of mutated pathogens poses great challenges to the existing vaccine system. A screening system is needed to screen for antigen designs and vaccination strategies capable of inducing cross-protective immunity. Herein, we report a screening system based on DNA vaccines and a micro-electroporation/electrophoresis system (MEES), which greatly improved the efficacy of DNA vaccines, elevating humoral and cellular immune responses by over 400- and 35-fold respectively. Eighteen vaccination strategies were screened simultaneously by sequential immunization with vaccines derived from wildtype (WT) SARS-CoV-2, Delta, or Omicron BA.1 variant. Sequential vaccination of BA.1-WT-Delta vaccines with MEES induced potent neutralizing antibodies against all three viral strains and BA.5 variant, demonstrating that cross-protective immunity against future mutants can be successfully induced by existing strain-derived vaccines when a proper combination and order of sequential vaccination are used. Our screening system could be used for fast-seeking vaccination strategies for emerging pathogens in the future.

Effectiveness of Cell-Based Quadrivalent Seasonal Influenza Vaccine: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Cell-based seasonal influenza vaccine viruses may more closely match recommended vaccine strains than egg-based options. We sought to evaluate the effectiveness of seasonal cell-based quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIVc), as reported in the published literature. A systematic literature review was conducted (PROSPERO CRD42020160851) to identify publications reporting on the effectiveness of QIVc in persons aged ≥6 months relative to no vaccination or to standard-dose, egg-based quadrivalent or trivalent influenza vaccines (QIVe/TIVe). Publications from between 1 January 2016 and 25 February 2022 were considered. The review identified 18 relevant publications spanning three influenza seasons from the 2017-2020 period, with an overall pooled relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) of 8.4% (95% CI, 6.5-10.2%) for QIVc vs. QIVe/TIVe. Among persons aged 4-64 years, the pooled rVE was 16.2% (95% CI, 7.6-24.8%) for 2017-2018, 6.1% (4.9-7.3%) for 2018-2019, and 10.1% (6.3-14.0%) for 2019-2020. For adults aged ≥65 years, the pooled rVE was 9.9% (95% CI, 6.9-12.9%) in the egg-adapted 2017-2018 season, whereas there was no significant difference in 2018-2019. For persons aged 4-64 years, QIVc was consistently more effective than QIVe/TIVe over the three influenza seasons. For persons aged ≥65 years, protection with QIVc was greater than QIVe or TIVe during the 2017-2018 season and comparable in 2018-2019.

Existing Evidence for Influenza B Virus Adaptations to Drive Replication in Humans as the Primary Host

Influenza B virus (IBV) is one of the two major types of influenza viruses that circulate each year. Unlike influenza A viruses, IBV does not harbor pandemic potential due to its lack of historical circulation in non-human hosts. Many studies and reviews have highlighted important factors for host determination of influenza A viruses. However, much less is known about the factors driving IBV replication in humans. We hypothesize that similar factors influence the host restriction of IBV. Here, we compile and review the current understanding of host factors crucial for the various stages of the IBV viral replication cycle. While we discovered the research in this area of IBV is limited, we review known host factors that may indicate possible host restriction of IBV to humans. These factors include the IBV hemagglutinin (HA) protein, host nuclear factors, and viral immune evasion proteins. Our review frames the current understanding of IBV adaptations to replication in humans. However, this review is limited by the amount of research previously completed on IBV host determinants and would benefit from additional future research in this area.

Resistance profiles for the investigational neuraminidase inhibitor AV5080 in influenza A and B viruses

Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) are recommended for influenza treatment and prevention worldwide. The most widely prescribed NAI is oral oseltamivir, while inhaled zanamivir is less commonly used. Using phenotypic neuraminidase (NA) enzymatic assays and molecular modeling approaches, we examined the ability of the investigational orally-dosed NAI AV5080 to inhibit viruses of the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, A(H3N2), A(H5N1), and A(H7N9) subtypes and the influenza B/Victoria- and B/Yamagata-lineages containing NA substitutions conferring oseltamivir or zanamivir resistance including: NA-R292K, NA-E119G/V, NA-H274Y, NA-I122L/N, and NA-R150K. Broadly, AV5080 showed enhanced in vitro efficacy when compared with oseltamivir and/or zanamivir. Reduced AV5080 inhibition was determined for influenza A viruses with NA-E119G and NA-R292K, and for B/Victoria-lineage viruses with NA-I122N/L and B/Yamagata-lineage virus with NA-R150K. Molecular modeling suggested loss of the short hydrogen bond to the carboxyl group of AV5080 affected inhibition of NA-R292K viruses, whereas loss of the salt bridge with the guanidine group of AV5080 affected inhibition of NA-E119G. The resistance profiles and predicted binding modes of AV5080 and zanamivir are most similar, but dissimilar to those of oseltamivir, in part because of a guanidine moiety compensatory binding effect. Overall, our data suggests that AV5080 is a promising orally-dosed NAI that exhibited similar or superior in vitro efficacy against viruses with reduced or highly reduced inhibition phenotypes with respect to currently approved NAIs.

Development of PREDAC-H1pdm to model the antigenic evolution of influenza A/(H1N1) pdm09 viruses

The Influenza A (H1N1) pdm09 virus caused a global pandemic in 2009 and has circulated seasonally ever since. As the continual genetic evolution of hemagglutinin in this virus leads to antigenic drift, rapid identification of antigenic variants and characterization of the antigenic evolution are needed. In this study, we developed PREDAC-H1pdm, a model to predict antigenic relationships between H1N1pdm viruses and identify antigenic clusters for post-2009 pandemic H1N1 strains. Our model performed well in predicting antigenic variants, which was helpful in influenza surveillance. By mapping the antigenic clusters for H1N1pdm, we found that substitutions on the Sa epitope were common for H1N1pdm, whereas for the former seasonal H1N1, substitutions on the Sb epitope were more common in antigenic evolution. Additionally, the localized epidemic pattern of H1N1pdm was more obvious than that of the former seasonal H1N1, which could make vaccine recommendation more sophisticated. Overall, the antigenic relationship prediction model we developed provides a rapid determination method for identifying antigenic variants, and the further analysis of evolutionary and epidemic characteristics can facilitate vaccine recommendations and influenza surveillance for H1N1pdm.

Immunogenicity and safety of the quadrivalent inactivated split-virion influenza vaccine in populations aged ≥ 3 years: A phase 3, randomized, double-blind, non-inferiority clinical trial

This study aimed to evaluate the immunogenicity non-inferiority and safety of the quadrivalent inactivated split-virion influenza vaccine in participants ≥ 3 years old. A total of 3,328 participants were enrolled. Participants 3-8 years old were administered one or two doses of the investigational vaccine or one dose of the control vaccine, whereas the other participants were administered only one dose of the investigational or control vaccine. The immunogenicity and occurrence of adverse events (AEs) after 30 days of full-course vaccination and serious adverse events (SAEs) within 6 months after full-course vaccination were assessed. The sero-conversion rates (SCRs) of anti-H1N1, H3N2, B(Y), and B(V) antibodies in the test group were 74.64%, 87.40%, 82.66%, and 78.89%, respectively, and their geometric mean titers were 1:250.13, 1:394.54, 1:200.84, and 1:94.91, respectively, which were non-inferior to those in the control group. The SCRs and sero-protection rates in the two-dose group of participants 3-8 years old were greater than those in the one-dose group. The incidences of total AEs and adverse reactions in the test group were 31.6% and 21.7%, respectively, which were close to those in the control group. In the two-dose group, the incidence of adverse reactions was considerably lower in the second dose (5.5%) than in the first dose (14.7%). Most AEs were grade 1 in severity, and no SAEs were recorded. The investigational vaccine had immunogenicity non-inferior to the control vaccine, and two doses were more effective than one dose in participants 3-8 years old, with a good overall safety.Trial registration: CTR20200715.

Aprotinin-Drug against Respiratory Diseases

Aprotinin (APR) was discovered in 1930. APR is an effective pan-protease inhibitor, a typical "magic shotgun". Until 2007, APR was widely used as an antithrombotic and anti-inflammatory drug in cardiac and noncardiac surgeries for reduction of bleeding and thus limiting the need for blood transfusion. The ability of APR to inhibit proteolytic activation of some viruses leads to its use as an antiviral drug for the prevention and treatment of acute respiratory virus infections. However, due to incompetent interpretation of several clinical trials followed by incredible controversy in the literature, the usage of APR was nearly stopped for a decade worldwide. In 2015-2020, after re-analysis of these clinical trials' data the restrictions in APR usage were lifted worldwide. This review discusses antiviral mechanisms of APR action and summarizes current knowledge and prospective regarding the use of APR treatment for diseases caused by RNA-containing viruses, including influenza and SARS-CoV-2 viruses, or as a part of combination antiviral treatment.

2019-2020 H1N1 clade A5a.1 viruses have better in vitro fitness compared with the co-circulating A5a.2 clade

Surveillance for emerging human influenza virus clades is important for identifying changes in viral fitness and assessing antigenic similarity to vaccine strains. While fitness and antigenic structure are both important aspects of virus success, they are distinct characteristics and do not always change in a complementary manner. The 2019-2020 Northern Hemisphere influenza season saw the emergence of two H1N1 clades: A5a.1 and A5a.2. While several studies indicated that A5a.2 showed similar or even increased antigenic drift compared with A5a.1, the A5a.1 clade was still the predominant circulating clade that season. Clinical isolates of representative viruses from these clades were collected in Baltimore, Maryland during the 2019-2020 season and multiple assays were performed to compare both antigenic drift and viral fitness between clades. Neutralization assays performed on serum from healthcare workers pre- and post-vaccination during the 2019-2020 season show a comparable drop in neutralizing titers against both A5a.1 and A5a.2 viruses compared with the vaccine strain, indicating that A5a.1 did not have antigenic advantages over A5a.2 that would explain its predominance in this population. Plaque assays were performed to investigate fitness differences, and the A5a.2 virus produced significantly smaller plaques compared with viruses from A5a.1 or the parental A5a clade. To assess viral replication, low MOI growth curves were performed on both MDCK-SIAT and primary differentiated human nasal epithelial cell cultures. In both cell cultures, A5a.2 yielded significantly reduced viral titers at multiple timepoints post-infection compared with A5a.1 or A5a. Receptor binding was then investigated through glycan array experiments which showed a reduction in receptor binding diversity for A5a.2, with fewer glycans bound and a higher percentage of total binding attributable to the top three highest bound glycans. Together these data indicate that the A5a.2 clade had a reduction in viral fitness, including reductions in receptor binding, that may have contributed to the limited prevalence observed after emergence.

Targeting Metalloenzymes: The "Achilles' Heel" of Viruses and Parasites

Metalloenzymes are central to the regulation of a wide range of essential viral and parasitic functions, including protein degradation, nucleic acid modification, and many others. Given the impact of infectious diseases on human health, inhibiting metalloenzymes offers an attractive approach to disease therapy. Metal-chelating agents have been expansively studied as antivirals and antiparasitics, resulting in important classes of metal-dependent enzyme inhibitors. This review provides the recent advances in targeting the metalloenzymes of viruses and parasites that impose a significant burden on global public health, including influenza A and B, hepatitis B and C, and human immunodeficiency viruses as well as Trypanosoma brucei and Trypanosoma cruzi.

Real-World Evidence in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Enhanced Influenza Vaccines in Adults ≥ 65 Years of Age: Literature Review and Expert Opinion

Influenza vaccination can benefit most populations, including adults ≥ 65 years of age, who are at greater risk of influenza-related complications. In many countries, enhanced vaccines, such as adjuvanted, high-dose, and recombinant trivalent/quadrivalent influenza vaccines (aTIV/aQIV, HD-TIV/HD-QIV, and QIVr, respectively), are recommended in older populations to provide higher immunogenicity and increased relative vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (rVE) than standard-dose vaccines. This review explores how efficacy and effectiveness data from randomized controlled trials and real-world evidence (RWE) are used in economic evaluations. Findings from published cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) on enhanced influenza vaccines for older adults are summarized, and the assumptions and approaches used in these CEA are assessed alongside discussion of the importance of RWE in CEA. Results from many CEA showed that adjuvanted and high-dose enhanced vaccines were cost-effective compared with standard vaccines, and that differences in rVE estimates and acquisition price may drive differences in cost-effectiveness estimates between enhanced vaccines. Overall, RWE and CEA provide clinical and economic rationale for enhanced vaccine use in people ≥ 65 years of age, an at-risk population with substantial burden of disease. Countries that consider RWE when making vaccine recommendations have preferentially recommended aTIV/aQIV, as well as HD-TIV/HD-QIV and QIVr, to protect older individuals.

Targeting the hallmarks of aging to improve influenza vaccine responses in older adults

Age-related declines in immune response pose a challenge in combating diseases later in life. Influenza (flu) infection remains a significant burden on older populations and often results in catastrophic disability in those who survive infection. Despite having vaccines designed specifically for older adults, the burden of flu remains high and overall flu vaccine efficacy remains inadequate in this population. Recent geroscience research has highlighted the utility in targeting biological aging to improve multiple age-related declines. Indeed, the response to vaccination is highly coordinated, and diminished responses in older adults are likely not due to a singular deficit, but rather a multitude of age-related declines. In this review we highlight deficits in the aged vaccine responses and potential geroscience guided approaches to overcome these deficits. More specifically, we propose that alternative vaccine platforms and interventions that target the hallmarks of aging, including inflammation, cellular senescence, microbiome disturbances, and mitochondrial dysfunction, may improve vaccine responses and overall immunological resilience in older adults. Elucidating novel interventions and approaches that enhance immunological protection from vaccination is crucial to minimize the disproportionate effect of flu and other infectious diseases on older adults.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness in patients hospitalized with severe acute respiratory infection in Lithuania during the 2019-2020 influenza season: a test negative case - control study

BACKGROUND

Influenza is a contagious viral airborne disease that adds to the clinical and economic burden on the healthcare system. It could be prevented substantially by seasonal influenza vaccination. Seasonal influenza vaccine effectiveness (SIVE) varies a lot and should therefore be monitored. This report aims to update age-stratified SIVE estimates among patients hospitalized due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) during the 2019-2020 influenza season.

METHODS

We performed a test-negative case-control study between December 2019 and April 2020 influenza season. We estimated SIVE and its 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) with logistic regression as (1-odds ratio)*100%. The models were adjusted for covariates that changed the unadjusted SIVE by ≥ 10%.

RESULTS

Among 84 participants, 32 (38.1%) were influenza positive, mostly with A(H1N1)pdm09 (25 cases; 78.1%). SIVE against any influenza adjusted for age and heart disease was 39.2% (95% CI: -119.3%, 83.1%). Age-stratified point estimates adjusted for heart diseases indicated different SIVE, and were 64.0% (95% CI: -309.2%, 96.8%) and 21.6% (95% CI: -252.2%, 82.6%) for 18-64 and ≥ 65 year-old participants, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The point estimates suggested low to moderate SIVE against any influenza among hospitalized 18-64-year-old SARI participants, while low estimates were found in the ≥ 65-year-old group. Although broad SIVE confidence intervals indicate a small sample size and therefore the results can serve only as indicatory, they are in line with the estimates reported by other studies during the 2019-2020 season.

Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza A(H3N2)-Associated Hospitalized Illness: United States, 2022

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with historically low influenza circulation during the 2020-2021 season, followed by an increase in influenza circulation during the 2021-2022 US season. The 2a.2 subgroup of the influenza A(H3N2) 3C.2a1b subclade that predominated was antigenically different from the vaccine strain.

METHODS

To understand the effectiveness of the 2021-2022 vaccine against hospitalized influenza illness, a multistate sentinel surveillance network enrolled adults aged ≥18 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illness and tested for influenza by a molecular assay. Using the test-negative design, vaccine effectiveness (VE) was measured by comparing the odds of current-season influenza vaccination in influenza-positive case-patients and influenza-negative, SARS-CoV-2-negative controls, adjusting for confounders. A separate analysis was performed to illustrate bias introduced by including SARS-CoV-2-positive controls.

RESULTS

A total of 2334 patients, including 295 influenza cases (47% vaccinated), 1175 influenza- and SARS-CoV-2-negative controls (53% vaccinated), and 864 influenza-negative and SARS-CoV-2-positive controls (49% vaccinated), were analyzed. Influenza VE was 26% (95% CI: -14% to 52%) among adults aged 18-64 years, -3% (-54% to 31%) among adults aged ≥65 years, and 50% (15-71%) among adults aged 18-64 years without immunocompromising conditions. Estimated VE decreased with inclusion of SARS-CoV-2-positive controls.

CONCLUSIONS

During a season where influenza A(H3N2) was antigenically different from the vaccine virus, vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of influenza hospitalization in younger immunocompetent adults. However, vaccination did not provide protection in adults ≥65 years of age. Improvements in vaccines, antivirals, and prevention strategies are warranted.

2019-20 H1N1 clade A5a.1 viruses have better in vitro replication compared with the co-circulating A5a.2 clade

Surveillance for emerging human influenza virus clades is important for identifying changes in viral fitness and assessing antigenic similarity to vaccine strains. While fitness and antigenic structure are both important aspects of virus success, they are distinct characteristics and do not always change in a complementary manner. The 2019-20 Northern Hemisphere influenza season saw the emergence of two H1N1 clades: A5a.1 and A5a.2. While several studies indicated that A5a.2 showed similar or even increased antigenic drift compared with A5a.1, the A5a.1 clade was still the predominant circulating clade that season. Clinical isolates of representative viruses from these clades were collected in Baltimore, Maryland during the 2019-20 season and multiple assays were performed to compare both antigenic drift and viral fitness between clades. Neutralization assays performed on serum from healthcare workers pre- and post-vaccination during the 2019-20 season show a comparable drop in neutralizing titers against both A5a.1 and A5a.2 viruses compared with the vaccine strain, indicating that A5a.1 did not have antigenic advantages over A5a.2 that would explain its predominance in this population. Plaque assays were performed to investigate fitness differences, and the A5a.2 virus produced significantly smaller plaques compared with viruses from A5a.1 or the parental A5a clade. To assess viral replication, low MOI growth curves were performed on both MDCK-SIAT and primary differentiated human nasal epithelial cell cultures. In both cell cultures, A5a.2 yielded significantly reduced viral titers at multiple timepoints post-infection compared with A5a.1 or A5a. Receptor binding was then investigated through glycan array experiments which showed a reduction in receptor binding diversity for A5a.2, with fewer glycans bound and a higher percentage of total binding attributable to the top three highest bound glycans. Together these data indicate that the A5a.2 clade had a reduction in viral fitness, including reductions in receptor binding, that may have contributed to the limited prevalence observed after emergence.

COVID-19 Mask Mandates in NY and Their Effect on the Incidence of Flu

Objective

The goal of the study is to quantify the reduction in the cases of influenza and how this decrease in incidence correlates with the execution of masking requirements in public as well as social distancing.

Methods

Influenza statistics were collected from Northwell Health, a 23-hospital system located throughout New York State. Positive influenza results were collected representing the 2018-2019 Flu season, 2019-2020 Flu season, and compared to the 2020-2021 Flu season, which corresponded to the mask mandates and social distancing measures implemented in NYS.

Results

Our data showed a dramatic decrease in influenza rates during the 2020-2021 Flu season, which corresponded to NYS's strict social distancing and mask requirements during the pandemic. This shows a steep decline correlating with the implementation of public health mandates directed at decreasing the spread of aerosolized particles between members of the population.

Conclusion

Our data show a significant decrease in the number of positive influenza tests during the same period of time when COVID-19 social distancing and mask-wearing requirements were in effect.

Household Transmission of Influenza A Viruses in 2021-2022

IMPORTANCE

Influenza virus infections declined globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. Loss of natural immunity from lower rates of influenza infection and documented antigenic changes in circulating viruses may have resulted in increased susceptibility to influenza virus infection during the 2021-2022 influenza season.

OBJECTIVE

To compare the risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts of patients with influenza during the 2021-2022 influenza season with risk of influenza virus infection among household contacts during influenza seasons before the COVID-19 pandemic in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective study of influenza transmission enrolled households in 2 states before the COVID-19 pandemic (2017-2020) and in 4 US states during the 2021-2022 influenza season. Primary cases were individuals with the earliest laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in a household. Household contacts were people living with the primary cases who self-collected nasal swabs daily for influenza molecular testing and completed symptom diaries daily for 5 to 10 days after enrollment.

EXPOSURES

Household contacts living with a primary case.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Relative risk of laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H3N2) virus infection in household contacts during the 2021-2022 season compared with prepandemic seasons. Risk estimates were adjusted for age, vaccination status, frequency of interaction with the primary case, and household density. Subgroup analyses by age, vaccination status, and frequency of interaction with the primary case were also conducted.

RESULTS

During the prepandemic seasons, 152 primary cases (median age, 13 years; 3.9% Black; 52.0% female) and 353 household contacts (median age, 33 years; 2.8% Black; 54.1% female) were included and during the 2021-2022 influenza season, 84 primary cases (median age, 10 years; 13.1% Black; 52.4% female) and 186 household contacts (median age, 28.5 years; 14.0% Black; 63.4% female) were included in the analysis. During the prepandemic influenza seasons, 20.1% (71/353) of household contacts were infected with influenza A(H3N2) viruses compared with 50.0% (93/186) of household contacts in 2021-2022. The adjusted relative risk of A(H3N2) virus infection in 2021-2022 was 2.31 (95% CI, 1.86-2.86) compared with prepandemic seasons.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among cohorts in 5 US states, there was a significantly increased risk of household transmission of influenza A(H3N2) in 2021-2022 compared with prepandemic seasons. Additional research is needed to understand reasons for this association.

Sustained Within-season Vaccine Effectiveness Against Influenza-associated Hospitalization in Children: Evidence From the New Vaccine Surveillance Network, 2015-2016 Through 2019-2020

BACKGROUND

Adult studies have demonstrated within-season declines in influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE); data in children are limited.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective, test-negative study of children 6 months through 17 years hospitalized with acute respiratory illness at 7 pediatric medical centers during the 2015-2016 through 2019-2020 influenza seasons. Case-patients were children with an influenza-positive molecular test matched by illness onset to influenza-negative control-patients. We estimated VE [100% × (1 - odds ratio)] by comparing the odds of receipt of ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine ≥14 days before illness onset among influenza-positive children to influenza-negative children. Changes in VE over time between vaccination date and illness onset date were estimated using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 8430 children, 4653 (55%) received ≥1 dose of influenza vaccine. On average, 48% were vaccinated through October and 85% through December each season. Influenza vaccine receipt was lower in case-patients than control-patients (39% vs 57%, P < .001); overall VE against hospitalization was 53% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 46, 60%). Pooling data across 5 seasons, the odds of influenza-associated hospitalization increased 4.2% (-3.2%, 12.2%) per month since vaccination, with an average VE decrease of 1.9% per month (n = 4000, P = .275). Odds of hospitalization increased 2.9% (95% CI: -5.4%, 11.8%) and 9.6% (95% CI: -7.0%, 29.1%) per month in children ≤8 years (n = 3084) and 9-17 years (n = 916), respectively. These findings were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed minimal, not statistically significant within-season declines in VE. Vaccination following current Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) guidelines for timing of vaccine receipt remains the best strategy for preventing influenza-associated hospitalizations in children.

Lidocaine inhibits influenza a virus replication by up-regulating IFNα4 via TBK1-IRF7 and JNK-AP1 signaling pathways

Influenza A viruses (IAV), significant respiratory pathogenic agents, cause seasonal epidemics and global pandemics in intra- and interannual cycles. Despite effective therapies targeting viral proteins, the continuous generation of drug-resistant IAV strains is challenging. Therefore, exploring novel host-specific antiviral treatment strategies is urgently needed. Here, we found that lidocaine, widely used for local anesthesia and sedation, significantly inhibited H1N1(PR8) replication in macrophages. Interestingly, its antiviral effect did not depend on the inhibition of voltage-gated sodium channels (VGSC), the main target of lidocaine for anesthesia. Lidocaine significantly upregulated early IFN-I, interferon α4 (IFNα4) mRNA, and protein levels, but not those of early IFNβ in mouse RAW 264.7 cell line and human THP-1 derived macrophages. Knocking out IFNα4 by CRISPR-Cas9 partly reversed lidocaine's inhibition of PR8 replication in macrophages. Mechanistically, lidocaine upregulated IFNα4 by activating TANK-binding kinase 1 (TBK1)-IRF7 and JNK-AP1 signaling pathways. These findings indicate that lidocaine has an incredible antiviral potential by enhancing IFN-I signaling in macrophages. In conclusion, our results indicate the potential auxiliary role of lidocaine for anti-influenza A virus therapy and even for anti-SARS-CoV-2 virus therapy, especially in the absence of a specific medicine.

Severity of influenza illness by seasonal influenza vaccination status among hospitalised patients in four South American countries, 2013-19: a surveillance-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although several studies have reported attenuated influenza illness following influenza vaccination, results have been inconsistent and have focused predominantly on adults in the USA. This study aimed to evaluate the severity of influenza illness by vaccination status in a broad range of influenza vaccine target groups across multiple South American countries.

METHODS

We analysed data from four South American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Paraguay) participating in REVELAC-i, a multicentre, test-negative design, vaccine effectiveness network including 41 sentinel hospitals. Individuals hospitalised at one of these centres with severe acute respiratory infection were tested for influenza by real-time RT-PCR, and were included in the analysis if they had complete information about their vaccination status and outcomes of their hospital stay. We used multivariable logistic regression weighted by inverse probability of vaccination and adjusted for antiviral use, duration of illness before admission, and calendar week, to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in-hospital death (and combinations of these outcomes) among influenza-positive patients by vaccination status for three target groups: young children (aged 6-24 months), adults (aged 18-64 years) with pre-existing health conditions, and older adults (aged ≥65 years). Survival curves were used to compare length of hospital stay by vaccination status in each target group.

FINDINGS

2747 patients hospitalised with PCR-confirmed influenza virus infection between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 8, 2019, were included in the study: 649 children (70 [10·8%] fully vaccinated, 193 [29·7%] partially vaccinated) of whom 87 (13·4%) were admitted to ICU and 12 (1·8%) died in hospital; 520 adults with pre-existing medical conditions (118 [22·7%] vaccinated), of whom 139 (26·7%) were admitted to ICU and 55 (10·6%) died in hospital; and 1578 older adults (609 [38·6%] vaccinated), of whom 271 (17·2%) were admitted to ICU and 220 (13·9%) died in hospital. We observed earlier discharge among partially vaccinated children (adjusted hazard ratio 1·14 [95% CI 1·01-1·29]), fully vaccinated children (1·24 [1·04-1·47]), and vaccinated adults with pre-existing medical conditions (1·78 [1·18-2·69]) compared with their unvaccinated counterparts, but not among vaccinated older adults (0·82 [0·65-1·04]). Compared with unvaccinated individuals, lower odds of ICU admission were found for partially vaccinated children (aOR 0·64 [95% CI 0·44-0·92]) and fully vaccinated children (0·52 [0·28-0·98]), but not for adults with pre-existing conditions (1·25 [0·93-1·67]) or older adults (0·88 [0·72-1·08]). Lower odds of in-hospital death (0·62 [0·50-0·78]) were found in vaccinated versus unvaccinated older adults, with or without ICU admission, but did not differ significantly in partially vaccinated (1·35 [0·57-3·20]) or fully vaccinated young children (0·88 [0·16-4·82]) or adults with pre-existing medical conditions (1·09 [0·73-1·63]) compared with the respective unvaccinated patient groups.

INTERPRETATION

Influenza vaccination was associated with illness attenuation among those hospitalised with influenza, although results differed by vaccine target group. These findings might suggest that attenuation of disease severity might be specific to certain target groups, seasons, or settings.

FUNDING

US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Spanish and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

A rapid and flexible microneutralization assay for serological assessment of influenza viruses

BACKGROUND

Serological responses from influenza vaccination or infection are typically measured by hemagglutinin inhibition (HAI) or microneutralization (MN). Both methods are limited in feasibility, standardization, and generalizability to recent strains. We developed a luciferase MN (LMN) assay that combines the advantages of the conventional MN assay with the ease of the HAI assay.

METHODS

Sera were obtained from the HIVE study, a Michigan household cohort. Reverse genetics was used to generate recombinant influenza viruses expressing the hemagglutinin and neuraminidase of test strains, all other viral proteins from an A/WSN/1933 backbone, and a NanoLuc reporter. Serum neutralization of luciferase-expressing targets was quantified as a reduction in light emission from infected cells. Neutralization titers were measured for cell- and egg-adapted versions of A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 and A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 and compared to HAI titers against egg-grown antigens.

RESULTS

Three hundred thirty-three sera were collected from 259 participants between May 2016 and July 2018. Sampled participants were 7-68 years of age, and >80% were vaccinated against influenza. HAI and LMN titers were correlated for A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 (ρ = 0.52, p ≤ 0.01) and A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 (ρ = 0.79, p ≤ 0.01). LMN titers were lower for cell strains compared to egg strains (A/Hong Kong/4801/2014 mean log₂ fold change = -2.66, p ≤ 0.01 and A/Singapore/INFIMH-16-0019/2016 mean log₂ fold change = -3.15, p ≤ 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The LMN assay was feasible using limited sample volumes and able to differentiate small antigenic differences between egg-adapted and cell-derived strains. The correspondence of these results with the commonly used HAI confirms the utility of this assay for high-throughput studies of correlates of protection and vaccine response.

Cell-Based Manufacturing Technology Increases Antigenic Match of Influenza Vaccine and Results in Improved Effectiveness

To ensure that vaccination offers the best protection against an infectious disease, sequence identity between the vaccine and the circulating strain is paramount. During replication of nucleic acid, random mutations occur due to the level of polymerase fidelity. In traditional influenza vaccine manufacture, vaccine viruses are propagated in fertilized chicken eggs, which can result in egg-adaptive mutations in the antigen-encoding genes. Whilst this improves infection and replication in eggs, mutations may reduce the effectiveness of egg-based influenza vaccines against circulating human viruses. In contrast, egg-adaptive mutations are avoided when vaccine viruses are propagated in Madin-Darby canine kidney (MDCK) cell lines during manufacture of cell-based inactivated influenza vaccines. The first mammalian cell-only strain was included in Flucelvax® Quadrivalent in 2017. A sequence analysis of the viruses selected for inclusion in this vaccine (n = 15 vaccine strains, containing both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase) demonstrated that no mutations occur in the antigenic sites of either hemagglutinin or neuraminidase, indicating that cell adaptation does not occur during production of this cell-based vaccine. The development of this now entirely mammalian-based vaccine system, which incorporates both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase, ensures that the significant protective antigens are equivalent to the strains recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) in both amino acid sequence and glycosylation pattern. The inclusion of both proteins in a vaccine may provide an advantage over recombinant vaccines containing hemagglutinin alone. Findings from real world effectiveness studies support the use of cell-based influenza vaccines.

Protecting the Offspring, the Gift of Maternal Immunization: Current Status and Future Perspectives

Pregnancy is characterized by immunological alterations in pregnant women that permit the growth of a semi-allogenic fetus, resulting in greater susceptibility of childbearing women to infections. Furthermore, due to the immaturity of the immune system of neonates, a protection gap is present in early life, leaving neonates and infants vulnerable to infectious diseases with increased morbidity and mortality. Maternal immunization against influenza, pertussis, and, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2 has been implemented in several countries, with beneficial effects on both the mother and the offspring. The main protective mechanism of vaccination during pregnancy is transplacental transfer of maternal antibodies. However, recent evidence has implied that the fetal immune system may be influenced beyond passive immunity. This review sheds light on the current status of the routinely administered vaccinations during pregnancy, focusing on the impact of maternal immunization on the priming of the fetal immune system and suggesting future perspectives for the optimization of vaccination strategies.

Robust Antiviral Activity of Santonica Flower Extract (Artemisia cina) against Avian and Human Influenza A Viruses: In Vitro and Chemoinformatic Studies

The evolution of drug-resistant viral strains following natural acquisition of resistance mutations is a major obstacle to antiviral therapy. Besides the improper prescription of the currently licensed anti-influenza medications, M2-blockers and neuraminidase inhibitors, to control poultry outbreaks/infections potentiates the emergence of drug-resistant influenza variants. Therefore, there is always a necessity to find out new alternatives with potent activity and high safety. Plant extracts and plant-based chemicals represent a historical antiviral resource with remarkable safety in vitro and in vivo to control the emerging and remerging health threats caused by viral infections. Herein, a panel of purified plant extracts and subsequent plant-derived chemicals were evaluated for their anti-avian influenza activity against zoonotic highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 virus. Interestingly, santonica flower extract (Artemisia cina) showed the most promising anti-H5N1 activity with a highly safe half-maximal cytotoxic concentration 50 (CC₅₀ > 10 mg/mL) and inhibitory concentration 50 (IC₅₀ of 3.42 μg/mL). To confirm the anti-influenza activity, we assessed the anti-influenza activity of the selected plant extracts against seasonal human influenza A/H1N1 virus and we found that santonica flower extract showed a robust anti-influenza activity that was comparable to the activity against influenza A/H5N1. Furthermore, the mode of action for santonica flower extract with strong inhibitory activity on the abovementioned influenza strains was elucidated, showing a virucidal effect. To go deeper about the activity of the chemometric component of the extract, the major constituent, santonin, was further selected for in vitro screening against influenza A/H5N1 (IC₅₀ = 1.701 μg/mL) and influenza A/H1N1 (IC₅₀ = 2.91 μg/mL). The oxygen of carbonyl functionality in the cyclohexene ring succeeded to form a hydrogen bond with the neuraminidase active site. Despite the fact that santonin revealed similarity to both reference neuraminidase inhibitors in forming hydrogen bonds with essential amino acids, it illustrated shape alignment to oseltamivir more than zanamivir according to Tanimoto algorithms. This study highlights the applicability of santonica flower extract as a promising natural antiviral against low and highly pathogenic influenza A viruses.

Cross-Reactive Fc-Fused Single-Domain Antibodies to Hemagglutinin Stem Region Protect Mice from Group 1 Influenza a Virus Infection

The continued evolution of influenza viruses reduces the effectiveness of vaccination and antiviral drugs. The identification of novel and universal agents for influenza prophylaxis and treatment is an urgent need. We have previously described two potent single-domain antibodies (VHH), G2.3 and H1.2, which bind to the stem domain of hemagglutinin and efficiently neutralize H1N1 and H5N2 influenza viruses in vivo. In this study, we modified these VHHs with Fc-fragment to enhance their antiviral activity. Reformatting of G2.3 into bivalent Fc-fusion molecule increased its in vitro neutralizing activity against H1N1 and H2N3 viruses up to 80-fold and, moreover, resulted in obtaining the ability to neutralize H5N2 and H9N2 subtypes. We demonstrated that a dose as low as 0.6 mg/kg of G2.3-Fc or H1.2-Fc administered systemically or locally before infection could protect mice from lethal challenges with both H1N1 and H5N2 viruses. Furthermore, G2.3-Fc reduced the lung viral load to an undetectable level. Both VHH-Fc antibodies showed in vivo therapeutic efficacy when delivered via systemic or local route. The findings support G2.3-Fc as a potential therapeutic agent for both prophylaxis and therapy of Group 1 influenza A infection.

Nanoparticle-Based Bivalent Swine Influenza Virus Vaccine Induces Enhanced Immunity and Effective Protection against Drifted H1N1 and H3N2 Viruses in Mice

Swine influenza virus (SIV) circulates worldwide, posing substantial economic loss and disease burden to humans and animals. Vaccination remains the most effective way to prevent SIV infection and transmission. In this study, we evaluated the protective efficacy of a recombinant, baculovirus-insect cell system-expressed bivalent nanoparticle SIV vaccine in mice challenged with drifted swine influenza H1N1 and H3N2 viruses. After a prime-boost immunization, the bivalent nanoparticle vaccine (BNV) induced high levels of hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) antibodies, virus-neutralization (VN) antibodies, and antigen-specific IgG antibodies in mice, as well as more efficient cytokine levels. The MF59 and CPG1 adjuvant could significantly promote both humoral and cellular immunity of BNV. The MF59 adjuvant showed a balanced Th1/Th2 immune response, and the CPG1 adjuvant tended to show a Th1-favored response. The BALB/c challenge test showed that BNV could significantly reduce lung viral loads and feces viral shedding, and showed fewer lung pathological lesions than those in PBS and inactivated vaccine groups. These results suggest that this novel bivalent nanoparticle swine influenza vaccine can be used as an efficacious vaccine candidate to induce robust immunity and provide broad protection against drifted subtypes in mice. Immune efficacy in pigs needs to be further evaluated.

Influenza During the 2010-2020 Decade in the United States: Seasonal Outbreaks and Vaccine Interventions

The 10 years between the last influenza pandemic and start of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 pandemic have been marked by great advances in our ability to follow influenza occurrence and determine vaccine effectiveness (VE), largely based on widespread use of the polymerase chain reaction assay. We examine the results, focusing mainly on data from the United States and inactivated vaccines. Surveillance has expanded, resulting in increased ability to characterize circulating viruses and their impact. The surveillance has often confirmed previous observations on timing of outbreaks and age groups affected, which can now be examined in greater detail. Selection of strains for vaccines is now based on enhanced viral characterization using immunologic, virologic, and computational techniques not previously available. Vaccine coverage has been largely stable, but VE has remained modest and, in some years, very low. We discuss ways to improve VE based on existing technology while we work toward supraseasonal vaccines.

The evolutionary footprint of influenza A subtype H3N2 strains in Bangladesh: implication of vaccine strain selection

In February each year, World Health Organization (WHO) recommends candidate vaccine viruses for the forthcoming northern hemisphere (NH) season; however, the influenza season in the temperate zone of NH begins in October. During egg- or cell culture-propagation, the vaccine viruses become too old to confer the highest match with the latest strains, impacting vaccine effectiveness. Therefore, an alternative strategy like mRNA-based vaccine using the most recent strains should be considered. We analyzed influenza A subtype H3N2 strains circulating in NH during the last 10 years (2009-2020). Phylogenetic analysis revealed multiple clades of influenza strains circulating every season, which had substantial mismatches with WHO-recommended vaccine strains. The clustering pattern suggests that influenza A subtype H3N2 strains are not fixed to the specific geographical region but circulate globally in the same season. By analyzing 39 seasons from eight NH countries with the highest vaccine coverage, we also provide evidence that the influenza A, subtype H3N2 strains from South and Southeast Asia, including Bangladesh, had the highest genetic proximity to the NH strains. Furthermore, insilico analysis showed minimal effect on the Bangladeshi HA protein structure, indicating the stability of Bangladeshi strains. Therefore, we propose that Bangladeshi influenza strains represent genetic makeup that may better fit and serve as the most suitable candidate vaccine viruses for the forthcoming NH season.

Real-world impact of vaccination on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence in healthcare personnel at an academic medical center

OBJECTIVE

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination effectiveness in healthcare personnel (HCP) has been established. However, questions remain regarding its performance in high-risk healthcare occupations and work locations. We describe the effect of a COVID-19 HCP vaccination campaign on SARS-CoV-2 infection by timing of vaccination, job type, and work location.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective review of COVID-19 vaccination acceptance, incidence of postvaccination COVID-19, hospitalization, and mortality among 16,156 faculty, students, and staff at a large academic medical center. Data were collected 8 weeks prior to the start of phase 1a vaccination of frontline employees and ended 11 weeks after campaign onset.

RESULTS

The COVID-19 incidence rate among HCP at our institution decreased from 3.2% during the 8 weeks prior to the start of vaccinations to 0.38% by 4 weeks after campaign initiation. COVID-19 risk was reduced among individuals who received a single vaccination (hazard ratio [HR], 0.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.68; P < .0001) and was further reduced with 2 doses of vaccine (HR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.09-0.32; P < .0001). By 2 weeks after the second dose, the observed case positivity rate was 0.04%. Among phase 1a HCP, we observed a lower risk of COVID-19 among physicians and a trend toward higher risk for respiratory therapists independent of vaccination status. Rates of infection were similar in a subgroup of nurses when examined by work location.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in HCP. Despite these encouraging results, unvaccinated HCP remain at an elevated risk of infection, highlighting the need for targeted outreach to combat vaccine hesitancy.