Alpha to Omicron: Disease Severity and Clinical Outcomes of Major SARS-CoV-2 Variants

Influence of vaccination on critical COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Despite vaccines' effectiveness in reducing COVID-19 infection rates and disease severity, their impact on critical patients presenting with acute respiratory failure is elusive. The aim of this study was to further investigate the influence of vaccination on mortality rates among severely ill COVID-19 patients experiencing acute respiratory failure.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was carried out at a tertiary medical center in Taiwan. From April to September 2022, patients who tested positive for the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) through reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and subsequently experienced acute respiratory failure were included in the study. Baseline characteristics, including vaccination history, along with information regarding critical illness and clinical outcomes, were gathered and compared between patients who received the vaccine and those who did not.

RESULTS

A total of 215 patients with COVID-19 exhibiting acute respiratory failure, as confirmed via RT‒PCR, were included in the analysis. Of this cohort, sixty-six (30.7%) patients died within 28 days. Neither administration of the vaccine nor achievement of primary series vaccination status had a significantly different effect on 28 day mortality, number of viral shedding events, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) incidence or other clinical outcomes. Patients who received the booster vaccine and completed the primary series showed a tendency of increased 28 days of ventilator-free status, though this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.815).

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination status did not significantly influence mortality rates, the occurrence of ARDS, or the viral shedding duration in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure.

Temporal trends and spatial clusters of high risk for maternal death due to COVID-19 pre and during COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil: a national population-based ecological study

OBJECTIVE

This study comprehensively analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths within the obstetric population in Brazil, comparing the periods before and during mass COVID-19 vaccination. We explored the trends and geographical patterns of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths over time. We also examined their correlation with the SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating and the social determinants of health.

STUDY DESIGN

This is a nationwide population-based ecological study.

METHODS

We obtained data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, socioeconomic status, and vulnerability information for Brazil's 5570 municipalities for both the pre-COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination periods. A Bayesian model was used to mitigate indicator fluctuations. The spatial correlation of maternal cases and fatalities with socioeconomic and vulnerability indicators was assessed using bivariate Moran.

RESULTS

From March 2020 to June 2023, a total of 23,823 cases and 1991 maternal fatalities were recorded among pregnant and postpartum women. The temporal trends in maternal incidence and mortality rates fluctuated over the study period, largely influenced by widespread COVID-19 vaccination and the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant. There was a significant reduction in maternal mortality due to COVID-19 following the introduction of vaccination. The geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths exhibited marked heterogeneity in both periods, with distinct spatial clusters predominantly observed in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions. Municipalities with the highest Human Development Index reported the highest incidence rates, while those with the highest levels of social vulnerability exhibited elevated mortality and fatality rates.

CONCLUSION

Despite the circulation of highly transmissible variants of concern, maternal mortality due to COVID-19 was significantly reduced following the mass vaccination. There was a heterogeneous distribution of cases and fatalities in both periods (before and during mass vaccination). Smaller municipalities and those grappling with social vulnerability issues experienced the highest rates of maternal mortality and fatalities.

How the Timing of Annual COVID-19 Vaccination of Nursing Home Residents and Staff Affects Its Value

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of an annual nursing home (NH) COVID-19 vaccine campaign and the impact of when vaccination starts.

DESIGN

Agent-based model representing a typical NH.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

NH residents and staff.

METHODS

We used the model representing an NH with 100 residents, its staff, their interactions, COVID-19 spread, and its health and economic outcomes to evaluate the epidemiologic, clinical, and economic value of varying schedules of annual COVID-19 vaccine campaigns.

RESULTS

Across a range of scenarios with a 60% vaccine efficacy that wanes starting 4 months after protection onset, vaccination was cost saving or cost-effective when initiated in the late summer or early fall. Annual vaccination averted 102 to 105 COVID-19 cases when 30-day vaccination campaigns began between July and October (varying with vaccination start), decreasing to 97 and 85 cases when starting in November and December, respectively. Starting vaccination between July and December saved $3340 to $4363 and $64,375 to $77,548 from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services and societal perspectives, respectively (varying with vaccination start). Vaccination's value did not change when varying the COVID-19 peak between December and February. The ideal vaccine campaign timing was not affected by reducing COVID-19 levels in the community, or varying transmission probability, preexisting immunity, or COVID-19 severity. However, if vaccine efficacy wanes more quickly (over 1 month), earlier vaccination in July resulted in more cases compared with vaccinating later in October.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Annual vaccination of NH staff and residents averted the most cases when initiated in the late summer through early fall, at least 2 months before the COVID-19 winter peak but remained cost saving or cost-effective when it starts in the same month as the peak. This supports tethering COVID vaccination to seasonal influenza campaigns (typically in September-October) for providing protection against SARS-CoV-2 winter surges in NHs.

Molecular Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 within Accra Metropolis Postlockdown

Introduction

Currently, sequencing has been the only tool for the identification of circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants. However, it is known to be an expensive and laborious approach involving high technical expertise. Considering the reduced adherence to preventive measures postlockdown in Accra, this study presents an alternative method that leverages polymerase chain reaction (PCR) to identify circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the Accra Metropolis postlockdown.

Methods

This prospective cross-sectional study was conducted between July and December 2022. Nasopharyngeal samples were collected from 268 consenting participants. Samples were subjected to nucleic acid extraction and followed by real-time polymerase chain reaction for the detection and quantification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA. SARS-CoV-2 positive samples were subsequently subjected to variant identification using rapid PCR. Findings. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 within the Accra Metropolis was 30.2%. The majority of the SARS-CoV-2 infection was diagnosed in females, participants aged 41-50 years, and symptomatic participants. Participants aged ≤10 years and females recorded the highest viral load while participants aged 41-50 years recorded the highest number of infections. The SARS-CoV-2 variants detected were Alpha (64.2%), Delta (22.2%), and Omicron (13.6%). Predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified were chills, cough, headache, body weakness, sore throat, and dyspnoea in order of decreasing association with SARS-CoV-2 infection. There was a strong association between symptom status, gender, age, and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Conclusion

There was a high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 within the Accra Metropolis postlockdown within the sampling period. The Alpha variant of SARS-CoV-2 is the predominant circulating variant, and persons presenting with symptoms are most likely to be diagnosed with COVID-19. Children aged ≤10 years serve as a reservoir for infection transmission.

Comparing COVID-19 severity in patients hospitalized for community-associated Delta, BA.1 and BA.4/5 variant infection

Background

Despite decreasing COVID-19 disease severity during the Omicron waves, a proportion of patients still require hospitalization and intensive care.

Objective

To compare demographic characteristics, comorbidities, vaccination status, and previous infections in patients hospitalized for community-associated COVID-19 (CAC) in predominantly Delta, Omicron BA.1 and BA.4/5 SARS-CoV-2 waves.

Methods

Data were extracted from three national databases-the National COVID-19 Database, National Vaccination Registry and National Registry of Hospitalizations.

Results

Among the hospitalized CAC patients analyzed in this study, 5,512 were infected with Delta, 1,120 with Omicron BA.1, and 1,143 with the Omicron BA.4/5 variant. The age and sex structure changed from Delta to BA.4/5, with the proportion of women (9.5% increase), children and adolescents (10.4% increase), and octa- and nonagenarians increasing significantly (24.5% increase). Significantly more patients had comorbidities (measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index), 30.3% in Delta and 43% in BA.4/5 period. The need for non-invasive ventilatory support (NiVS), ICU admission, mechanical ventilation (MV), and in-hospital mortality (IHM) decreased from Delta to Omicron BA.4/5 period for 12.6, 13.5, 11.5, and 6.3%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed significantly lower odds for ICU admission (OR 0.68, CI 0.54-0.84, p < 0.001) and IHM (OR 0.74, CI 0.58-0.93, p = 0.011) during the Delta period in patients who had been fully vaccinated or boosted with a COVID-19 vaccine within the previous 6 months. In the BA.1 variant period, patients who had less than 6 months elapsed between the last vaccine dose and SARS-CoV-2 positivity had lower odds for MV (OR 0.38, CI 0.18-0.72, p = 0.005) and IHM (OR 0.56, CI 0.37- 0.83, p = 0.005), but not for NIVS or ICU admission.

Conclusion

The likelihood of developing severe CAC in hospitalized patients was higher in those with the Delta and Omicron BA.1 variant compared to BA.4/5.

Blood transcriptomics analysis offers insights into variant-specific immune response to SARS-CoV-2

Bulk RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of blood is typically used for gene expression analysis in biomedical research but is still rarely used in clinical practice. In this study, we propose that RNA-seq should be considered a diagnostic tool, as it offers not only insights into aberrant gene expression and splicing but also delivers additional readouts on immune cell type composition as well as B-cell and T-cell receptor (BCR/TCR) repertoires. We demonstrate that RNA-seq offers insights into a patient's immune status via integrative analysis of RNA-seq data from patients infected with various SARS-CoV-2 variants (in total 196 samples with up to 200 million reads sequencing depth). We compare the results of computational cell-type deconvolution methods (e.g., MCP-counter, xCell, EPIC, quanTIseq) to complete blood count data, the current gold standard in clinical practice. We observe varying levels of lymphocyte depletion and significant differences in neutrophil levels between SARS-CoV-2 variants. Additionally, we identify B and T cell receptor (BCR/TCR) sequences using the tools MiXCR and TRUST4 to show that-combined with sequence alignments and BLASTp-they could be used to classify a patient's disease. Finally, we investigated the sequencing depth required for such analyses and concluded that 10 million reads per sample is sufficient. In conclusion, our study reveals that computational cell-type deconvolution and BCR/TCR methods using bulk RNA-seq analyses can supplement missing CBC data and offer insights into immune responses, disease severity, and pathogen-specific immunity, all achievable with a sequencing depth of 10 million reads per sample.

Machine learning versus multivariate logistic regression for predicting severe COVID-19 in hospitalized children with Omicron variant infection

With the emergence of the Omicron variant, the number of pediatric Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases requiring hospitalization and developing severe or critical illness has significantly increased. Machine learning and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to predict risk factors and develop prognostic models for severe COVID-19 in hospitalized children with the Omicron variant in this study. Of the 544 hospitalized children including 243 and 301 in the mild and severe groups, respectively. Fever (92.3%) was the most common symptom, followed by cough (79.4%), convulsions (36.8%), and vomiting (23.2%). The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (1-3 years old, odds ratio (OR): 3.193, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.778-5.733], comorbidity (OR: 1.993, 95% CI:1.154-3.443), cough (OR: 0.409, 95% CI:0.236-0.709), and baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (OR: 1.108, 95% CI: 1.023-1.200), lactate dehydrogenase (OR: 1.993, 95% CI: 1.154-3.443), blood urea nitrogen (OR: 1.002, 95% CI: 1.000-1.003) and total bilirubin (OR: 1.178, 95% CI: 1.005-3.381) were independent risk factors for severe COVID-19. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction models constructed by multivariate logistic regression analysis and machine learning (RandomForest + TomekLinks) were 0.7770 and 0.8590, respectively. The top 10 most important variables of random forest variables were selected to build a prediction model, with an AUC of 0.8210. Compared with multivariate logistic regression, machine learning models could more accurately predict severe COVID-19 in children with Omicron variant infection.

Clinical course and management of COVID-19 in the era of widespread population immunity

The clinical implications of COVID-19 have changed since SARS-CoV-2 first emerged in humans. The current high levels of population immunity, due to prior infection and/or vaccination, have been associated with a vastly decreased overall risk of severe disease. Some people, particularly those with immunocompromising conditions, remain at risk for severe outcomes. Through the course of the pandemic, variants with somewhat different symptom profiles from the original SARS-CoV-2 virus have emerged. The management of COVID-19 has also changed since 2020, with the increasing availability of evidence-based treatments in two main classes: antivirals and immunomodulators. Selecting the appropriate treatment(s) for patients with COVID-19 requires a deep understanding of the evidence and an awareness of the limitations of applying data that have been largely based on immune-naive populations to patients today who most likely have vaccine-derived and/or infection-derived immunity. In this Review, we provide a summary of the clinical manifestations and approaches to caring for adult patients with COVID-19 in the era of vaccine availability and the dominance of the Omicron subvariants, with a focus on the management of COVID-19 in different patient groups, including immunocompromised, pregnant, vaccinated and unvaccinated patients.

Development and Validation of a Robust and Interpretable Early Triaging Support System for Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: Predictive Algorithm Modeling and Interpretation Study

BACKGROUND

Robust and accurate prediction of severity for patients with COVID-19 is crucial for patient triaging decisions. Many proposed models were prone to either high bias risk or low-to-moderate discrimination. Some also suffered from a lack of clinical interpretability and were developed based on early pandemic period data. Hence, there has been a compelling need for advancements in prediction models for better clinical applicability.

OBJECTIVE

The primary objective of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning-based Robust and Interpretable Early Triaging Support (RIETS) system that predicts severity progression (involving any of the following events: intensive care unit admission, in-hospital death, mechanical ventilation required, or extracorporeal membrane oxygenation required) within 15 days upon hospitalization based on routinely available clinical and laboratory biomarkers.

METHODS

We included data from 5945 hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from 19 hospitals in South Korea collected between January 2020 and August 2022. For model development and external validation, the whole data set was partitioned into 2 independent cohorts by stratified random cluster sampling according to hospital type (general and tertiary care) and geographical location (metropolitan and nonmetropolitan). Machine learning models were trained and internally validated through a cross-validation technique on the development cohort. They were externally validated using a bootstrapped sampling technique on the external validation cohort. The best-performing model was selected primarily based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), and its robustness was evaluated using bias risk assessment. For model interpretability, we used Shapley and patient clustering methods.

RESULTS

Our final model, RIETS, was developed based on a deep neural network of 11 clinical and laboratory biomarkers that are readily available within the first day of hospitalization. The features predictive of severity included lactate dehydrogenase, age, absolute lymphocyte count, dyspnea, respiratory rate, diabetes mellitus, c-reactive protein, absolute neutrophil count, platelet count, white blood cell count, and saturation of peripheral oxygen. RIETS demonstrated excellent discrimination (AUROC=0.937; 95% CI 0.935-0.938) with high calibration (integrated calibration index=0.041), satisfied all the criteria of low bias risk in a risk assessment tool, and provided detailed interpretations of model parameters and patient clusters. In addition, RIETS showed potential for transportability across variant periods with its sustainable prediction on Omicron cases (AUROC=0.903, 95% CI 0.897-0.910).

CONCLUSIONS

RIETS was developed and validated to assist early triaging by promptly predicting the severity of hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Its high performance with low bias risk ensures considerably reliable prediction. The use of a nationwide multicenter cohort in the model development and validation implicates generalizability. The use of routinely collected features may enable wide adaptability. Interpretations of model parameters and patients can promote clinical applicability. Together, we anticipate that RIETS will facilitate the patient triaging workflow and efficient resource allocation when incorporated into a routine clinical practice.

HIV and COVID-19: two pandemics with significant (but different) central nervous system complications

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cause significant neurologic disease. Central nervous system (CNS) involvement of HIV has been extensively studied, with well-documented invasion of HIV into the brain in the initial stage of infection, while the acute effects of SARS-CoV-2 in the brain are unclear. Neuropathologic features of active HIV infection in the brain are well characterized whereas neuropathologic findings in acute COVID-19 are largely non-specific. On the other hand, neuropathologic substrates of chronic dysfunction in both infections, as HIV-associated neurocognitive disorders (HAND) and post-COVID conditions (PCC)/long COVID are unknown. Thus far, neuropathologic studies on patients with HAND in the era of combined antiretroviral therapy have been inconclusive, and autopsy studies on patients diagnosed with PCC have yet to be published. Further longitudinal, multidisciplinary studies on patients with HAND and PCC and neuropathologic studies in comparison to controls are warranted to help elucidate the mechanisms of CNS dysfunction in both conditions.

Baricitinib versus tocilizumab in critically ill COVID-19 patients: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The immunomodulators tocilizumab and baricitinib improve outcomes in severely ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); however, comparative analyses of clinical outcomes related to these agents are lacking. A tocilizumab national shortage shifted treatment to baricitinib in critically ill patients, allowing for an outcome comparison in a similar population. The purpose of this study is to compare clinical outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients who received tocilizumab and those who received baricitinib.

DESIGN

Retrospective, observational cohort study using generalized estimating equation models, accounting for clustering by hospital and known confounders, to estimate the proportional odds of the ordinal World Health Organization Clinical Progression Scale (WHO-CPS) score at day 14, the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes included WHO-CPS score at day 7.

SETTING

Multiple hospitals within the Cleveland Clinic Health System.

PATIENTS

Adult patients admitted for COVID-19 between January 2021 and November 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

Receipt of tocilizumab, before its shortage, or baricitinib, during shortage.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

In total, 507 patients were included; 217 received tocilizumab and 290 received baricitinib. Over 96% of patients required ICU admission and 98% received concomitant dexamethasone. Tocilizumab recipients had higher (worse) baseline WHO-CPS scores. After adjustment, tocilizumab use was associated with higher odds of a worse day 14 WHO-CPS score compared with baricitinib (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-2.48]). Similarly, after adjustment, tocilizumab use was associated with higher odds of a worse day 7 WHO-CPS score (adjusted OR 1.65 [95% CI 1.22-2.24]).

CONCLUSIONS

Baricitinib use was associated with better WHO-CPS scores at day 14 and day 7 compared with tocilizumab in a cohort of critically ill patients with COVID-19. The odds of having a one unit increase in WHO-CPS score at day 14 was 71% higher with tocilizumab than baricitinib. No difference in mortality or adverse effects was noted.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants during two outbreaks from March to May 2022 in Quzhou, China

Limited data are available on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines used in China in real-world outbreaks - especially against Omicron variants in vaccinated individuals. Two outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants - the first involving the sub-lineage BA.2 and the second the BA.1 variant - occurred in Quzhou. Infected people and their close contacts were divided according to vaccination status: unvaccinated, partially vaccinated, fully vaccinated, and boosted. The Cox proportional-hazard regression model was used to estimate the evolving hazard for vaccinated individuals after their first immunization. 138 people had been infected with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 variant and 13 with the BA.1 variant. Of the 151 infections, 99.34% (150/151) were mild or asymptomatic and 90.07% (136/151) were vaccine breakthrough cases. The total vaccine effectiveness (VE) of partial, full, and booster vaccinations during the two outbreaks was 47.4% (95%CI: 0-93.1%), 28.9% (95%CI: 0-60.2%), and 27.5% (95%CI: 0-58.3%). The VE of booster vaccination against the Omicron BA.1 variant was higher than that for the BA.2 variant. The cumulative hazard began to increase 220 days after the first immunization. The transmissibility of the Omicron BA.2 variant as for BA.1 did not increase in vaccinated individuals; booster vaccination after a primary course substantially increased protection. Our study found that the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant caused less severe illness and that the VE of boosters against the Omicron variant was less than 30%. Timely administration of the booster dose was important, especially for individuals aged over 80 years old.

The impact of early therapies for COVID-19 on death, hospitalization and persisting symptoms: a retrospective study

PURPOSE

Oral antivirals (nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and molnupiravir), intravenous short treatment of remdesivir and anti-SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) have been used for early COVID-19 treatments in high risk of disease progression patients. The term long COVID has been used to refer to a range of new, returning, or ongoing symptoms after SARS-CoV-2 infection. Little is known about the impact of such therapies on long COVID.

METHODS

This is a retrospective observational study, including all outpatients evaluated from April 2021 to March 2022 in Brescia, Lombardy, northern Italy. Patients were stratified in three groups: (a) treated with mAbs, (b) treated with antivirals drugs and (c) controls (patients eligible for a or b who refused treatment). Data were collected at baseline and at month 1 and 3 (data on self-reported symptoms were collected using a telephone-administered questionnaire). We assessed early COVID-19 therapies effectiveness in preventing hospitalization, death at 1 or 3 months and persisting symptoms at 3 months after the onset of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

A total of 649 patients were included in the study, of which 242 (37.3%) were treated with mAbs, 197 (30.3%) with antiviral drugs and 210 (32.4%) were not treated. Patients most frequently reported cerebro-cardiovascular diseases (36.7%) followed by obesity (22%). Overall, 29 patients (4.5%) died or were hospitalized at 1 or 3-month follow-up. Death or hospitalization was positively associated with older ages, with a significant linear trend (OR 3.05; 95% CI 1.16-8.06, for patients aged 80 or more years compared to those aged less than 65). Data on long COVID at 3 months were available for 323 (49.8%) patients. A positive association emerged for females compared to men, with an OR of 2.14 (95% CI 1.30-3.53) for any symptoms. Conversely, inverse associations were found for treatment groups as compared to the control one, with significant estimates among patients treated with antiviral drugs for any symptoms (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.21-0.87) and patients treated with mAbs for any neuro-behavioral symptoms (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.25-0.92).

CONCLUSIONS

We report beneficial effect of early use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antivirals and mAbs on long COVID.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and associated factors, based on HIV serostatus, in young people in Sofala province, Mozambique

INTRODUCTION

In Sofala province (Mozambique), young people living with HIV (YPLHIV) are estimated at 7% among people aged 15-24 years. Even though the COVID-19 pandemic threatened HIV health services, data on the impact of COVID-19 on YPLHIV people are lacking. This study aimed at exploring the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and associated factors among young people based on their HIV status.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted, including people aged 18-24 attending a visit at one of the adolescent-friendly health services in Sofala province between October and November 2022. People vaccinated against SARS-COV-2 or YPLHIV with WHO stage III-IV were excluded. A SARS-CoV-2 antibodies qualitative test and a questionnaire investigating socio-demographic and clinical characteristics were proposed. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was calculated with Clopper-Pearson method. The odds ratio (OR) of a positive SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was estimated through multivariable binomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

In total, 540 young people including 65.8% women and 16.7% YPLHIV participated in the survey.. The mean age was 20.2 years (SD 2.0). Almost all the sample (96.1%) reported adopting at least one preventive measure for COVID-19. The weighted seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the whole sample was 46.8% (95%CI 42.6-51.2) and 35.9% (95%CI 25.3-47.5) in YPLHIV. The adjusted OR of testing positive at the SARS-CoV-2 antibodies test was higher in students compared to workers (aOR:2.02[0.95CI 1.01-4.21]) and in those with symptoms (aOR:1.52[0.95CI 1.01-2.30]). There were no differences based on HIV status(aOR:0.663[95%CI 0.406-1.069]). Overall, COVID-19 symptoms were reported by 68 (28.2%) people with a positive serological SARS-CoV-2 test and by 7 (21.7%) YPLHIV (p = 0.527). No one required hospitalization.

CONCLUSIONS

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 46.8% without differences in risk of infection or clinical presentation based on HIV status. This result may be influenced by the exclusion of YPLHIV with advanced disease. The higher risk among students suggests the schools' role in spreading the virus. It's important to continue monitoring the impact of COVID-19 on YPLHIV to better understand its effect on screening and adherence to treatment.

Blood transcriptomics analysis offers insights into variant-specific immune response to SARS-CoV-2

Bulk RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) of blood is typically used for gene expression analysis in biomedical research but is still rarely used in clinical practice. In this study, we argue that RNA-seq should be considered a routine diagnostic tool, as it offers not only insights into aberrant gene expression and splicing but also delivers additional readouts on immune cell type composition as well as B-cell and T-cell receptor (BCR/TCR) repertoires. We demonstrate that RNA-seq offers vital insights into a patient's immune status via integrative analysis of RNA-seq data from patients infected with various SARS-CoV-2 variants (in total 240 samples with up to 200 million reads sequencing depth). We compare the results of computational cell-type deconvolution methods (e.g., MCP-counter, xCell, EPIC, quanTIseq) to complete blood count data, the current gold standard in clinical practice. We observe varying levels of lymphocyte depletion and significant differences in neutrophil levels between SARS-CoV-2 variants. Additionally, we identify B and T cell receptor (BCR/TCR) sequences using the tools MiXCR and TRUST4 to show that - combined with sequence alignments and pBLAST - they could be used to classify a patient's disease. Finally, we investigated the sequencing depth required for such analyses and concluded that 10 million reads per sample is sufficient. In conclusion, our study reveals that computational cell-type deconvolution and BCR/TCR methods using bulk RNA-seq analyses can supplement missing CBC data and offer insights into immune responses, disease severity, and pathogen-specific immunity, all achievable with a sequencing depth of 10 million reads per sample.

Phenotyping the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in hamsters by digital pathology and machine learning

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has continued to evolve throughout the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) pandemic, giving rise to multiple variants of concern (VOCs) with different biological properties. As the pandemic progresses, it will be essential to test in near real time the potential of any new emerging variant to cause severe disease. BA.1 (Omicron) was shown to be attenuated compared to the previous VOCs like Delta, but it is possible that newly emerging variants may regain a virulent phenotype. Hamsters have been proven to be an exceedingly good model for SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis. Here, we aimed to develop robust quantitative pipelines to assess the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 variants in hamsters. We used various approaches including RNAseq, RNA in situ hybridization, immunohistochemistry, and digital pathology, including software assisted whole section imaging and downstream automatic analyses enhanced by machine learning, to develop methods to assess and quantify virus-induced pulmonary lesions in an unbiased manner. Initially, we used Delta and Omicron to develop our experimental pipelines. We then assessed the virulence of recent Omicron sub-lineages including BA.5, XBB, BQ.1.18, BA.2, BA.2.75 and EG.5.1. We show that in experimentally infected hamsters, accurate quantification of alveolar epithelial hyperplasia and macrophage infiltrates represent robust markers for assessing the extent of virus-induced pulmonary pathology, and hence virus virulence. In addition, using these pipelines, we could reveal how some Omicron sub-lineages (e.g., BA.2.75 and EG.5.1) have regained virulence compared to the original BA.1. Finally, to maximise the utility of the digital pathology pipelines reported in our study, we developed an online repository containing representative whole organ histopathology sections that can be visualised at variable magnifications (https://covid-atlas.cvr.gla.ac.uk). Overall, this pipeline can provide unbiased and invaluable data for rapidly assessing newly emerging variants and their potential to cause severe disease.

Increased blood pressure after nonsevere COVID-19

BACKGROUND

Various sequelae have been described after nonsevere coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), but knowledge on postacute effects on blood pressure is limited.

METHODS

This is a cross-sectional analysis of blood pressure profiles in individuals after nonsevere COVID-19 compared with matched population-based individuals without prior COVID-19. Data were derived from the ongoing and prospective Hamburg City Health Study, a population-based study in Hamburg, Germany, and its associated COVID-19 program, which included individuals at least 4 months after COVID-19. Matching was performed by age, sex, education, and preexisting hypertension in a 1 : 4 ratio.

RESULTS

Four hundred and thirty-two individuals after COVID-19 (mean age 56.1 years) were matched to 1728 controls without prior COVID-19 (56.2 years). About 92.8% of COVID-19 courses were mild or moderate, only 7.2% were hospitalized, and no individual had been treated on an intensive care unit. Even after adjustment for relevant competing risk factors, DBP [+4.7 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 3.97-5.7, P  < 0.001] was significantly higher in individuals after COVID-19. For SBP, a trend towards increased values was observed (+1.4 mmHg, 95% CI -0.4 to 3.2, P  = 0.120). Hypertensive blood pressures at least 130/80 mmHg (according to the ACC/AHA guideline) and at least 140/90 mmHg (ESC/ESH guideline) occurred significantly more often in individuals after COVID-19 than matched controls (odds ratio 2.0, 95% CI 1.5-2.7, P  < 0.001 and odds ratio 1.6, 95% CI 1.3-2.0, P  < 0.001, respectively), mainly driven by changes in DBP.

CONCLUSION

Blood pressure is higher in individuals after nonsevere COVID-19 compared with uninfected individuals suggesting a significant hypertensive sequela.

Effectiveness of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 infection in Guangdong, China: a cohort study

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines wanes over time and the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant led to the accelerated expansion of efforts for booster vaccination. However, the effect and contribution of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines remain to be evaluated. We conducted a retrospective close contacts cohort study to analyze the epidemiological characteristics and Omicron infection risk, and to evaluate the effectiveness of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic COVID-19, and COVID-19 pneumonia during the outbreaks of Omicron BA.2 infection from 1 February to 31 July 2022 in Guangdong, China. A total of 46,547 close contacts were identified while 6.3% contracted Omicron BA.2 infection, 1.8% were asymptomatic infection, 4.1% developed mild COVID-19, and 0.3% had COVID-19 pneumonia. We found that females and individuals aged 0-17 or ≥ 60 years old were more prone to SARS-CoV-2 infection. The vaccinated individuals showed lower infection risk when compared with the unvaccinated people. The effectiveness of booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 was 28.6% (95% CI: 11.6%, 35.0%) and 39.6% (95% CI: 30.0, 47.9) among adults aged ≥ 18 years old, respectively when compared with full vaccination. Booster vaccination provided a moderate level of protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection (VE: 49.9%, 95% CI: 22.3%-67.7%) and symptomatic COVID-19 (VE: 62.6%, 95% CI: 36.2%-78.0%) among adults aged ≥ 60 years old. Moreover, the effectiveness of booster vaccination was 52.2% (95% CI: 21.3%, 70.9%) and 83.8% (95% CI: 28.1%, 96.3%) against COVID-19 pneumonia in adults aged ≥ 18 and ≥ 60 years old, respectively. The reduction of absolute risk rate of COVID-19 pneumonia in the booster vaccination group was 0·96% (95% CI: 0.33%, 1.11%), and the number needed to vaccinate to prevent one case of COVID-19 pneumonia was 104 (95% CI: 91, 303) in adults aged ≥ 60 years old. In summary, booster vaccination with inactivated COVID-19 vaccines provides a low level of protection against infection and symptomatic in adults of 18-59 years old, and a moderate level of protection in older adults of more than 60 years old, but a high level of protection against COVID-19 pneumonia in older adults.

Placental Infection Associated with SARS-CoV-2 Wildtype Variant and Variants of Concern

The original SARS-CoV-2 lineages have been replaced by successive variants of concern (VOCs) over time. The aim of this study was to perform an assessment of the placental infection by SARS-CoV-2 according to the predominant variant at the moment of COVID-19 diagnosis. This was a prospective study of SARS-CoV-2-positive pregnant women between March 2020 and March 2022. The population was divided into pregnancies affected by COVID-19 disease during 2020 (Pre-VOC group) and pregnancies affected after December 2020 by SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC group). The presence of virus was assessed by RT-PCR, and the viral variant was determined by whole genome sequencing. A total of 104 placentas were examined, among which 54 cases belonged to the Pre-VOC group and 50 cases belonged to the VOC group. Sixteen positive placental RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2 were reported. The NGS analysis confirmed the SARS-CoV-2 lineage in placenta tissue. All samples corresponded to the Pre-VOC group, whereas no placental presence of SARS-CoV-2 was detected in the VOC group (16, 29.6% vs. 0, 0.0% p = 0.000). Preterm birth (9, 16.7% vs. 2, 4%; p = 0.036) and hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (14, 25.9% vs. 3, 6%; p = 0.003) were more frequent in the Pre-VOC group than in the VOC group. Finally, the VOC group was composed of 23 unvaccinated and 27 vaccinated pregnant women; no differences were observed in the sub-analysis focused on vaccination status. In summary, SARS-CoV-2-positive placentas were observed only in pregnancies infected by SARS-CoV-2 wildtype. Thus, placental SARS-CoV-2 presence could be influenced by SARS-CoV-2 variants, infection timing, or vaccination status. According to our data, the current risk of SARS-CoV-2 placental infection after maternal COVID disease during pregnancy should be updated.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 isolates, namely the Wuhan strain, Delta variant, and Omicron variant, identifies differential immune profiles

There is an urgent need to better understand the impact of different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants on immune response and disease dynamics to facilitate better intervention strategies. Here, we show that SARS-CoV-2 variants differentially affect host immune responses. The magnitude and quantity of cytokines and chemokines were comparable in those infected with the Wuhan strain and the Delta variant. However, individuals infected with the Omicron variant had significantly lower levels of these mediators. We also found an elevation of plasma galectins (Gal-3, Gal-8, and Gal-9) in infected individuals, in particular, in those with the original strain. Soluble galectins exert a proinflammatory role in COVID-19 pathogenesis. This was illustrated by their correlation with the plasma levels of sCD14, sCD163, enhanced TNF-α/IL-6 secretion, and increased SARS-CoV-2 infectivity in vitro. Moreover, we observed enhanced CD4+ and CD8+ T cell activation in Wuhan strain-infected individuals. Surprisingly, there was a more pronounced T cell activation in those infected with the Omicron in comparison to the Delta variant. In line with T cell activation status, we observed a more pronounced expansion of T cells expressing different co-inhibitory receptors in patients infected with the Wuhan strain, followed by the Omicron and Delta variants. Individuals infected with the Wuhan strain or the Omicron variant had a similar pattern of plasma soluble immune checkpoints. Our results imply that a milder innate immune response might be beneficial and protective in those infected with the Omicron variant. Our results provide a novel insight into the differential impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants on host immunity. IMPORTANCE There is a need to better understand how different SARS-CoV-2 variants influence the immune system and disease dynamics to facilitate the development of better vaccines and therapies. We compared immune responses in 140 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals with the Wuhan strain, the Delta variant, or the Omicron variant. All these patients were admitted to the intensive care unit and were SARS-CoV-2 vaccination naïve. We found that SARS-CoV-2 variants differentially affect the host immune response. This was done by measuring soluble biomarkers in their plasma and examining different immune cells. Overall, we found that the magnitude of cytokine storm in individuals infected with the Wuhan strain or the Delta variant was greater than in those infected with the Omicron variant. In light of enhanced cytokine release syndrome in individuals infected with the Wuhan strain or the Delta variant, we believe that a milder innate immune response might be beneficial and protective in those infected with the Omicron variant.

Acute COVID-19 in unvaccinated children without a history of previous infection during the delta and omicron periods

BACKGROUND

The Omicron variant has been the predominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 variant circulating in Korea since January 2022. This study evaluated and compared the clinical characteristics of children with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between the Delta and Omicron periods.

METHODS

The medical records of children aged < 12 years diagnosed with acute COVID-19 (<2 weeks of symptom onset) at seven university-affiliated hospitals were retrospectively reviewed. Children with a previous history of COVID-19 or vaccination were excluded. The clinical characteristics of the included children during the Delta (1 August 2021 to 15 January 2022) and Omicron (16 January to 30 June 2022) periods were compared.

RESULTS

Among the 515 children included in the study, 36 (7.0%) and 479 (93.0%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 during the Delta and Omicron periods, respectively. A total of 142 (27.6%) were hospitalized, and the hospitalization rate was higher during the Delta period than the Omicron period (91.7% vs. 22.8%, p < 0.001). The incidence of fever (p = 0.009), vomiting (p = 0.031), and seizures (p = 0.007) was higher during the Omicron period, whereas the incidence of rhinorrhea (p = 0.027) was higher during the Delta period. Clinical severity and outcomes were comparable between the two periods. During the Omicron period, 6.4% of the hospitalized children received oxygen therapy and 1.8% received intensive care.

CONCLUSION

The incidence of fever and seizures was higher during the Omicron period in pediatric patients without a history of vaccination or previous COVID-19. However, the clinical severity was similar during both periods.

Dynamics of inflammatory responses after SARS-CoV-2 infection by vaccination status in the USA: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Cytokines and chemokines play a critical role in the response to infection and vaccination. We aimed to assess the longitudinal association of COVID-19 vaccination with cytokine and chemokine concentrations and trajectories among people with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

In this longitudinal, prospective cohort study, blood samples were used from participants enrolled in a multi-centre randomised trial assessing the efficacy of convalescent plasma therapy for ambulatory COVID-19. The trial was conducted in 23 outpatient sites in the USA. In this study, participants (aged ≥18 years) were restricted to those with COVID-19 before vaccination or with breakthrough infections who had blood samples and symptom data collected at screening (pre-transfusion), day 14, and day 90 visits. Associations between COVID-19 vaccination status and concentrations of 21 cytokines and chemokines (measured using multiplexed sandwich immunoassays) were examined using multivariate linear mixed-effects regression models, adjusted for age, sex, BMI, hypertension, diabetes, trial group, and COVID-19 waves (pre-alpha or alpha and delta).

FINDINGS

Between June 29, 2020, and Sept 30, 2021, 882 participants recently infected with SARS-CoV-2 were enrolled, of whom 506 (57%) were female and 376 (43%) were male. 688 (78%) of 882 participants were unvaccinated, 55 (6%) were partly vaccinated, and 139 (16%) were fully vaccinated at baseline. After adjusting for confounders, geometric mean concentrations of interleukin (IL)-2RA, IL-7, IL-8, IL-15, IL-29 (interferon-λ), inducible protein-10, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, and tumour necrosis factor-α were significantly lower among the fully vaccinated group than in the unvaccinated group at screening. On day 90, fully vaccinated participants had approximately 20% lower geometric mean concentrations of IL-7, IL-8, and vascular endothelial growth factor-A than unvaccinated participants. Cytokine and chemokine concentrations decreased over time in the fully and partly vaccinated groups and unvaccinated group. Log10 cytokine and chemokine concentrations decreased faster among participants in the unvaccinated group than in other groups, but their geometric mean concentrations were generally higher than fully vaccinated participants at 90 days. Days since full vaccination and type of vaccine received were not correlated with cytokine and chemokine concentrations.

INTERPRETATION

Initially and during recovery from symptomatic COVID-19, fully vaccinated participants had lower concentrations of inflammatory markers than unvaccinated participants suggesting vaccination is associated with short-term and long-term reduction in inflammation, which could in part explain the reduced disease severity and mortality in vaccinated individuals.

FUNDING

US Department of Defense, National Institutes of Health, Bloomberg Philanthropies, State of Maryland, Mental Wellness Foundation, Moriah Fund, Octapharma, HealthNetwork Foundation, and the Shear Family Foundation.

Long COVID as a functional somatic symptom disorder caused by abnormally precise prior expectations during Bayesian perceptual processing: A new hypothesis and implications for pandemic response

This review proposes a model of Long-COVID where the constellation of symptoms are in fact genuinely experienced persistent physical symptoms that are usually functional in nature and therefore potentially reversible, that is, Long-COVID is a somatic symptom disorder. First, we describe what is currently known about Long-COVID in children and adults. Second, we examine reported "Long-Pandemic" effects that create a risk for similar somatic symptoms to develop in non-COVID-19 patients. Third, we describe what was known about somatization and somatic symptom disorder before the COVID-19 pandemic, and suggest that by analogy, Long-COVID may best be conceptualized as one of these disorders, with similar symptoms and predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors. Fourth, we review the phenomenon of mass sociogenic (functional) illness, and the concept of nocebo effects, and suggest that by analogy, Long-COVID is compatible with these descriptions. Fifth, we describe the current theoretical model of the mechanism underlying functional disorders, the Bayesian predictive coding model for perception. This model accounts for moderators that can make symptom inferences functionally inaccurate and therefore can explain how to understand common predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors. Finally, we discuss the implications of this framework for improved public health messaging during a pandemic, with recommendations for the management of Long-COVID symptoms in healthcare systems. We argue that the current public health approach has induced fear of Long-COVID in the population, including from constant messaging about disabling symptoms of Long-COVID and theorizing irreversible tissue damage as the cause of Long-COVID. This has created a self-fulfilling prophecy by inducing the very predisposing, precipitating, and perpetuating factors for the syndrome. Finally, we introduce the term "Pandemic-Response Syndrome" to describe what previously was labeled Long-COVID. This alternative perspective aims to stimulate research and serve as a lesson learned to avoid a repeat performance in the future.

Molecular and Clinical Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated Individuals in a Large Healthcare Organization from New Jersey

New Jersey was among the first states impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, with one of the highest overall death rates in the nation. Nevertheless, relatively few reports have been published focusing specifically on New Jersey. Here we report on molecular, clinical, and epidemiologic observations, from the largest healthcare network in the state, in a cohort of vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We conducted molecular surveillance of SARS-CoV-2-positive nasopharyngeal swabs collected in nine hospitals from December 2020 through June 2022, using both whole genome sequencing (WGS) and a real-time RT-PCR screening assay targeting spike protein mutations found in variants of concern (VOCs) within our region. De-identified clinical data were obtained retrospectively, including demographics, COVID-19 vaccination status, ICU admission, ventilator support, mortality, and medical history. Statistical analyses were performed to identify associations between SARS-CoV-2 variants, vaccination status, clinical outcomes, and medical risk factors. A total of 5007 SARS-CoV-2-positive nasopharyngeal swabs were successfully screened and/or sequenced. Variant screening identified three predominant VOCs, including Alpha (n = 714), Delta (n = 1877), and Omicron (n = 1802). Omicron isolates were further sub-typed as BA.1 (n = 899), BA.2 (n = 853), or BA.4/BA.5 (n = 50); the remaining 614 isolates were classified as "Other". Approximately 31.5% (1577/5007) of the samples were associated with vaccine breakthrough infections, which increased in frequency following the emergence of Delta and Omicron. Severe clinical outcomes included ICU admission (336/5007 = 6.7%), ventilator support (236/5007 = 4.7%), and mortality (430/5007 = 8.6%), with increasing age being the most significant contributor to each (p < 0.001). Unvaccinated individuals accounted for 79.7% (268/336) of ICU admissions, 78.3% (185/236) of ventilator cases, and 74.4% (320/430) of deaths. Highly significant (p < 0.001) increases in mortality were observed in individuals with cardiovascular disease, hypertension, cancer, diabetes, and hyperlipidemia, but not with obesity, thyroid disease, or respiratory disease. Significant differences (p < 0.001) in clinical outcomes were also noted between SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Delta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.2. Vaccination was associated with significantly improved clinical outcomes in our study, despite an increase in breakthrough infections associated with waning immunity, greater antigenic variability, or both. Underlying comorbidities contributed significantly to mortality in both vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, with increasing risk based on the total number of comorbidities. Real-time RT-PCR-based screening facilitated timely identification of predominant variants using a minimal number of spike protein mutations, with faster turnaround time and reduced cost compared to WGS. Continued evolution of SARS-CoV-2 variants will likely require ongoing surveillance for new VOCs, with real-time assessment of clinical impact.

Vaccination prevents severe COVID-19 outcome in patients with neutralizing type 1 interferon autoantibodies

A hallmark of patients with autoimmune polyendocrine syndrome type 1 (APS-1) is serological neutralizing autoantibodies against type 1 interferons (IFN-I). The presence of these antibodies has been associated with severe course of COVID-19. The aims of this study were to investigate SARS-CoV-2 vaccine tolerability and immune responses in a large cohort of patients with APS-1 (N = 33) and how these vaccinated patients coped with subsequent infections. We report that adult patients with APS-1 were able to mount adequate SARS-CoV-2 spike-specific antibody responses after vaccination and observed no signs of decreased tolerability. Compared with age- and gender-matched healthy controls, patients with APS-1 had considerably lower peak antibody responses resembling elderly persons, but antibody decline was more rapid in the elderly. We demonstrate that vaccination protected patients with APS-1 from severe illness when infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus, overriding the systemic danger of IFN-I autoantibodies observed in previous studies.

Characterization of upper airway microbiome across severity of COVID-19 during hospitalization and treatment

Longitudinal studies on upper respiratory tract microbiome in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) without potential confounders such as antimicrobial therapy are limited. The objective of this study is to assess for longitudinal changes in the upper respiratory microbiome, its association with disease severity, and potential confounders in adult hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Serial nasopharyngeal and throat swabs (NPSTSs) were taken for 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing from adults hospitalized for COVID-19. Alpha and beta diversity was assessed between different groups. Principal coordinate analysis was used to assess beta diversity between groups. Linear discriminant analysis was used to identify discriminative bacterial taxa in NPSTS taken early during hospitalization on need for intensive care unit (ICU) admission. A total of 314 NPSTS samples from 197 subjects (asymptomatic = 14, mild/moderate = 106, and severe/critical = 51 patients with COVID-19; non-COVID-19 mechanically ventilated ICU patients = 11; and healthy volunteers = 15) were sequenced. Among all covariates, antibiotic treatment had the largest effect on upper airway microbiota. When samples taken after antibiotics were excluded, alpha diversity (Shannon, Simpson, richness, and evenness) was similar across severity of COVID-19, whereas beta diversity (weighted GUniFrac and Bray-Curtis distance) remained different. Thirteen bacterial genera from NPSTS taken within the first week of hospitalization were associated with a need for ICU admission (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99). Longitudinal analysis showed that the upper respiratory microbiota alpha and beta diversity was unchanged during hospitalization in the absence of antimicrobial therapy.

Who to escalate during a pandemic? A retrospective observational study about decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

BACKGROUND

Optimal decision-making regarding who to admit to critical care in pandemic situations remains unclear. We compared age, Clinical Frailty Score (CFS), 4C Mortality Score and hospital mortality in two separate COVID-19 surges based on the escalation decision made by the treating physician.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of all referrals to critical care during the first COVID-19 surge (cohort 1, March/April 2020) and a late surge (cohort 2, October/November 2021) was undertaken. Patients with confirmed or high clinical suspicion of COVID-19 infection were included. A senior critical care physician assessed all patients regarding their suitability for potential intensive care unit admission. Demographics, CFS, 4C Mortality Score and hospital mortality were compared depending on the escalation decision made by the attending physician.

RESULTS

203 patients were included in the study, 139 in cohort 1 and 64 in cohort 2. There were no significant differences in age, CFS and 4C scores between the two cohorts. Patients deemed suitable for escalation by clinicians were significantly younger with significantly lower CFS and 4C scores compared with patients who were not deemed to benefit from escalation. This pattern was observed in both cohorts. Mortality in patients not deemed suitable for escalation was 61.8% in cohort 1 and 47.4% in cohort 2 (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Decisions who to escalate to critical care in settings with limited resources pose moral distress on clinicians. 4C score, age and CFS did not change significantly between the two surges but differed significantly between patients deemed suitable for escalation and those deemed unsuitable by clinicians. Risk prediction tools may be useful in a pandemic to supplement clinical decision-making, even though escalation thresholds require adjustments to reflect changes in risk profile and outcomes between different pandemic surges.

Distinct Clinical Presentations and Outcomes of Hospitalized Adults with the SARS-CoV-2 Infection Occurring during the Omicron Variant Surge

The COVID-19 Omicron variant has imposed a tremendous burden on healthcare services. We characterized the types of the Omicron variant-associated hospitalizations and their associations with clinical outcomes. Consecutive adults hospitalized with COVID-19 during the Omicron variant surge period of 1-14 January 2022, were classified into one of three groups based on their clinical presentations on admission: Group 1-primary COVID-19; Group 2-extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19; and Group 3-incidental COVID-19. Of the 500 patients who were hospitalized, 51.4% fell into Group 1, 16.4% into Group 2, and 32.2% into Group 3. The patients in Groups 1 and 2 were older, with higher proportions of comorbidities than patients in Group 3. The Group 1 patients had the highest mortality rate (15.6%), followed by Group 2 (8.5%), and Group 3 (0.6%), with adjusted odds ratios (OR) of 22.65 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.75-239.46; p = 0.004) and 10.95 (95% CI, 1.02-117.28; p = 0.048), respectively, compared to Group 3. Those in Group 1 showed a greater utilization of intensive care services (15.9%), followed by Group 2 (10.9%), and Group 3 (2.5%), with adjusted ORs of 7.95 (95% CI, 2.52-25.08; p < 0.001) and 5.07 (95% CI, 1.34-19.15; p = 0.017), respectively, compared to Group 3. The patients in Groups 1 and 2 had longer hospitalization stays than the patients in Group 3 (p < 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Older age (≥65 years) was an independent factor associated with longer hospital stays (OR = 1.72, 95% CI, 1.07-2.77). These findings can help hospitals prioritize patient care and service planning for future SARS-CoV-2 variants.

In vitro fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants as assessed by competition experiments followed by ddRT-PCR and whole genome sequencing

OBJECTIVE

To develop a new method for reliable and rapid determination of the fitness of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

METHODS

Competition experiments between two SARS-CoV-2 variants were performed in cells of the upper (nasal human airway epithelium) and lower (Calu-3 cells) respiratory tracts followed by quantification of variant ratios by droplet digital reverse transcription (ddRT)-PCR.

RESULTS

In competition experiments, the delta variant outcompeted the alpha variant in both cells of the upper and lower respiratory tracts. A 50/50% mixture of delta and omicron variants indicated a predominance of omicron in the upper respiratory tract whereas delta predominated in the lower respiratory tract. There was no evidence of recombination events between variants in competition as assessed by whole gene sequencing.

CONCLUSION

Differential replication kinetics were shown between variants of concern which may explain, at least partly, the emergence and disease severity associated with new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Therapeutic strategies for COVID-19: progress and lessons learned

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has stimulated tremendous efforts to develop therapeutic strategies that target severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and/or human proteins to control viral infection, encompassing hundreds of potential drugs and thousands of patients in clinical trials. So far, a few small-molecule antiviral drugs (nirmatrelvir-ritonavir, remdesivir and molnupiravir) and 11 monoclonal antibodies have been marketed for the treatment of COVID-19, mostly requiring administration within 10 days of symptom onset. In addition, hospitalized patients with severe or critical COVID-19 may benefit from treatment with previously approved immunomodulatory drugs, including glucocorticoids such as dexamethasone, cytokine antagonists such as tocilizumab and Janus kinase inhibitors such as baricitinib. Here, we summarize progress with COVID-19 drug discovery, based on accumulated findings since the pandemic began and a comprehensive list of clinical and preclinical inhibitors with anti-coronavirus activities. We also discuss the lessons learned from COVID-19 and other infectious diseases with regard to drug repurposing strategies, pan-coronavirus drug targets, in vitro assays and animal models, and platform trial design for the development of therapeutics to tackle COVID-19, long COVID and pathogenic coronaviruses in future outbreaks.

Effects of Different Types of Recombinant SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein on Circulating Monocytes' Structure

This study investigated the biological effects on circulating monocytes after challenge with SARS-CoV-2 recombinant spike protein. Whole blood collected from seven ostensibly healthy healthcare workers was incubated for 15 min with 2 and 20 ng/mL final concentration of recombinant spike protein of Ancestral, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. Samples were analyzed with Sysmex XN and DI-60 analyzers. Cellular complexity (i.e., the presence of granules, vacuoles and other cytoplasmic inclusions) increased in all samples challenged with the recombinant spike protein of the Ancestral, Alpha, and Delta variants, but not in those containing Omicron. The cellular content of nucleic acids was constantly decreased in most samples, achieving statistical significance in those containing 20 ng/mL of Alpha and Delta recombinant spike proteins. The heterogeneity of monocyte volumes significantly increased in all samples, achieving statistical significance in those containing 20 ng/mL of recombinant spike protein of the Ancestral, Alpha and Delta variants. The monocyte morphological abnormalities after spike protein challenge included dysmorphia, granulation, intense vacuolization, platelet phagocytosis, development of aberrant nuclei, and cytoplasmic extrusions. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein triggers important monocyte morphological abnormalities, more evident in cells challenged with recombinant spike protein of the more clinically severe Alpha and Delta variants.

The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality in Pavia, Northern Italy: Updated Estimates for the Year 2021

Excess mortality estimates are considered relevant indicators of direct and indirect pandemic effects on the population. Scant data have been published on cause-specific excess mortality. Using individual-level administrative data covering the Pavia province of Italian northern Lombardy region, we provided all-cause and cause-specific raw (RMR) and age-standardized (ASMR) mortality rates in 2021 and 2015-2019, the rate ratio, and 95% confidence intervals, overall and by sex. We obtained the excess deaths in 2021 as the difference between the number of observed and expected deaths from all causes and the two leading causes of death (all neoplasms and circulatory system diseases) by fitting over-dispersed quasi-Poisson regression models, accounting for temporal, seasonal and demographic changes. The total ASMR in 2021 was 972.4/100,000 (6836 certified deaths), with the highest ASMRs for circulatory system diseases (272.6/100,000) and all neoplasms (270.3/100,000), followed by COVID-19 (94.8/100,000 and 662 deaths). Compared to the expected, we estimated a total of 6.2% excess deaths in 2021 (7.2% in males and 5.4% in females), with no excess deaths from all neoplasms and a 6.2% reduction from circulatory system diseases. COVID-19 continued to affect total mortality in 2021, albeit to a lesser extent than in 2020, consistently with national patterns.

The Antiviral Effect of Nirmatrelvir/Ritonavir during COVID-19 Pandemic Real-World Data

INTRODUCTION

Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 and the prevalence of Omicron variants have reduced the risk of the severe clinical progress of COVID-19. However, the risk of breakthrough infections has increased, and early administration of an effective antiviral treatment is significant in order to prevent the severe progression of COVID-19 in vulnerable patients with comorbidities.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Adults with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in a matched-pair retrospective study based on age, gender, comorbidities and vaccination status. They were divided into two groups: group A (n = 200) consisted of outpatients at increased risk of severe clinical progress who were treated with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir and group B (n = 200) consisted of non-hospitalized patients who did not receive antiviral treatment. Demographic data, clinical outcome (death, intubation), days of hospitalization, time for recovery, adverse events and treatment compliance were reported.

RESULTS

The median age (75.24 ± 13.12 years in the study group and 76.91 ± 14.02 years in the comparison group) and the proportion of males (59% vs. 60.5%, respectively) were similar between the two groups. A total of 6.5% of patients in group A and 10.5% in group B were unvaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. Three patients from group A (1.5%) and one hundred eleven (55.5%) from group B required hospitalization. The duration of hospitalization (3 days vs. 10 days in group B, p < 0.001) and the total time needed for recovery (5 days vs. 9 days, p < 0.001) was shorter in the study group. A rebound of SARS-CoV-2 infection within 8-12 days after diagnosis was documented in 6.5% of patients in group A and 8% of patients in group B.

CONCLUSION

Oral treatment with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir in high-risk non-hospitalized patients was safe and effective in preventing the severe clinical progress of COVID-19 pneumonia. Early administration of antiviral agents in vulnerable outpatients combined with a full vaccination scheme is significant in order to avoid hospitalization and severe clinical outcomes.

Elder and booster vaccination associates with decreased risk of serious clinical outcomes in comparison of Omicron and Delta variant: A meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic brings great pressure to the public health systems. This meta-analysis aimed to compare the clinical outcomes among different virus variants, to clarify their impact on medical resources and to provide evidence for the formulation of epidemic prevention policies.

Methods

A systematic literature search was performed in the PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library databases using the key words "Omicron" and "Delta." The adjusted Risk ratios (RRs), Odds ratios (ORs) and Hazard ratios (HRs) were extracted, and RRs and Rate difference % (RD%) were used to interpret the risk estimates of the outcomes ultimately.

Results

Forty-three studies were included, with 3,812,681 and 14,926,841 individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variant, respectively. The relative risks of hospitalization, death, ICU admission, and mechanical ventilation use after infection with the Omicron variant were all significantly reduced compared those after infection with the Delta variant (RRhospitalization = 0.45, 95%CI: 0.40-0.52; RRdeath = 0.37, 95%CI: 0.30-0.45; RRICU = 0.35, 95%CI: 0.29-0.42; RRmechanical ventilation = 0.33, 95%CI: 0.25-0.44). The change of both absolute and relative risks for hospitalization was more evident (RR = 0.47, 95%CI: 0.42-0.53；RD% =10.61, 95%CI: 8.64-12.59) and a significant increase was observed for the absolute differences in death in the elderly (RD% = 5.60, 95CI%: 4.65-6.55); the change of the absolute differences in the risk of hospitalization and death were most markedly observed in the patients with booster vaccination (RD%hospitalization = 8.60, 95CI%: 5.95-11.24; RD%death = 3.70, 95CI%: 0.34-7.06).

Conclusion

The ability of the Omicron variant to cause severe clinical events has decreased significantly, as compared with the Delta variant, but vulnerable populations still need to be vigilant. There was no interaction between the vaccination doses and different variants.

Comparison of the course of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children during different pandemic waves

The purpose of this study is to assess the rate, clinical picture, and management of multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) during the different COVID-19 variants of concern (VOC) domination periods. This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. The incidence and clinical picture of MIS-C during the original/Alpha (group 1) and Delta/Omicron (Group 2) variant domination periods were compared. Among 108 eligible patients, 74 (68.5%) were hospitalized during the group 1 domination period, and 34 (31.5%) were hospitalized during the group 2 domination period. The median (Me) patient ages were 76 months (interquartile range [IQR] 35-130) and 73 months (IQR 45-118), and 61% and 65% of patients were male, respectively. There was no significant difference in the presence of positive SARS-CoV 2 antibody test results (IgM or IgG) between the groups (84 vs. 90%; p = 0.54).No differences between groups were observed in fever duration prior to admission (Me [IQR]: 5 days [3-6] vs. 5 days [4-6]; p = 0.26) or the presence of mucocutaneous (95 vs. 100%; p = 0.41), circulatory (70.3 vs. 61.8%; p = 0.86), neurological (6.8 vs. 2.9%; p = 0.662), or gastrointestinal symptoms (84 vs. 79%; p = 0.59). Respiratory symptoms were more common in group 2 (70 vs. 91%; p = 0.015). The need for intensive care unit admission was similar in both groups (16.2 vs. 17.6%, p = 1.0). No deaths occurred in the entire cohort. The studied children were characterized by high C-reactive protein and procalcitonin levels, concentrations of ferritin within normal limits, lymphopenia, moderate hypoalbuminemia, and high B-type natriuretic peptide/brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations; however, there were no differences between the groups. Intravenous immunoglobulins were administered as a first-line treatment for almost all patients. There was no significant difference in corticosteroid administration between the groups (87% vs. 74%; p = 0.11); however, the summary dose of methylprednisolone was higher in group 2 (Me [IQR]″ 12.6 mg/kg [10.5-17.8] vs. 16.4 mg/kg [13.3-19.5]; p = 0.03). The median length of stay was 11 days [IQR]: [9-14] and 10 days [8-12], respectively (p = 0.065).

CONCLUSION

The clinical course of MIS-C is similar in subsequent pandemic waves; however, the incidence of MIS-C seems to be decreasing.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• The clinical picture of COVID-19 is evolving. Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) is a relatively new serious disease connected with SARS-CoV-2 infection, and in subsequent waves of the pandemic, new cases of the disease have been recorded.

WHAT IS NEW

• The clinical picture of MIS-C is not specific, but the course is still severe. • The incidence of MIS-C during the different pandemic waves is decreasing and the diagnosis in the period of lower prevalance is challenging.

The disease severity of COVID-19 caused by Omicron variants: A brief review

The Omicron variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in November 2021 and spread worldwide. This review summarizes the reported mortality and morbidity rates of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by Omicron variants. In 21 previous studies, the mortality of patients infected with Omicron variants ranged from 0.01 to 13.1%, whereas that of those infected with previous variants was from 0.08% to 29.1%. The proportions of intensive care unit admissions and mechanical ventilation were lower for Omicron variants than for the previous variants. Future studies should clarify the mechanisms of transmissibility and severity of COVID-19 caused by the Omicron variants.

Do SARS-CoV-2 Variants Differ in Their Neuropathogenicity?

Neurological complications associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are a huge societal problem. Although the neuropathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 is not yet fully understood, there is evidence that SARS-CoV-2 can invade and infect cells of the central nervous system. Kong et al. (https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.02308-22) shows that the mechanism of virus entry into astrocytes in brain organoids and primary astrocytes differs from entry into respiratory epithelial cells. However, how SARS-CoV-2 enters susceptible CNS cells and whether there are differences among SARS-CoV-2 variants is still unclear. In vivo and in vitro models are useful to study these important questions and may reveal important differences among SARS-CoV-2 variants in their neuroinvasive, neurotropic, and neurovirulent potential. In this commentary we address how this study contributes to the understanding of the neuropathology of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants.

Monitoring COVID-19 and Influenza: The Added Value of a Severe Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System in Portugal

Background

Severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) surveillance is recommended to assess the severity of respiratory infections disease. In 2021, the National Institute of Health Doutor Ricardo Jorge, in collaboration with two general hospitals, implemented a SARI sentinel surveillance system based on electronic health registries. We describe its application in the 2021/2022 season and compare the evolution of SARI cases with the COVID-19 and influenza activity in two regions of Portugal.

Methods

The main outcome of interest was the weekly incidence of patients hospitalized due to SARI, reported within the surveillance system. SARI cases were defined as patients containing ICD-10 codes for influenza-like illness, cardiovascular diagnosis, respiratory diagnosis, and respiratory infection in their primary admission diagnosis. Independent variables included weekly COVID-19 and influenza incidence in the North and Lisbon and Tagus Valley regions. Pearson and cross-correlations between SARI cases, COVID-19 incidence and influenza incidence were estimated.

Results

A high correlation between SARI cases or hospitalizations due to respiratory infection and COVID-19 incidence was obtained (ρ = 0.78 and ρ = 0.82, respectively). SARI cases detected the COVID-19 epidemic peak a week earlier. A weak correlation was observed between SARI and influenza cases (ρ = -0.20). However, if restricted to hospitalizations due to cardiovascular diagnosis, a moderate correlation was observed (ρ = 0.37). Moreover, hospitalizations due to cardiovascular diagnosis detected the increase of influenza epidemic activity a week earlier.

Conclusion

In the 2021/2022 season, the Portuguese SARI sentinel surveillance system pilot was able to early detect the COVID-19 epidemic peak and the increase of influenza activity. Although cardiovascular manifestations associated with influenza infection are known, more seasons of surveillance are needed, to confirm the potential use of cardiovascular hospitalizations as an indicator of influenza activity.

Characteristics, Outcomes, and Factors Affecting Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with CAP Due to Different Variants of SARS-CoV-2 and Non-COVID-19 CAP

The study was conducted from October 2020 to March 2022 in a province in southern Thailand. The inpatients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and more than 18 years old were enrolled. Of the 1511 inpatients with CAP, COVID-19 was the leading cause, accounting for 27%. Among the patients with COVID-19 CAP, mortalities, mechanical ventilators, ICU admissions, ICU stay, and hospital costs were significantly higher than of those with non-COVID-19 CAP. Household and workplace contact with COVID-19, co-morbidities, lymphocytopenia and peripheral infiltration in chest imaging were associated with CAP due to COVID-19. The delta variant yielded the most unfavorable clinical and non-clinical outcomes. While COVID-19 CAP due to B.1.113, Alpha and Omicron variants had relatively similar outcomes. Among those with CAP, COVID-19 infection as well as obesity, a higher Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and APACHE II score were associated with in-hospital mortality. Among those with COVID-19 CAP, obesity, infection due to the Delta variant, a higher CCI and higher APACHE II score were associated with in-hospital mortality. COVID-19 had a great impact on the epidemiology and outcomes of CAP.

Change over Time in the Risk of Death among Japanese COVID-19 Cases Caused by the Omicron Variant Depending on Prevalence of Sublineages

To assess temporal changes to the risk of death in COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant, we calculated age-standardized case fatality rates (CFR) in patients aged ≥40 years over nine diagnostic periods (3 January to 28 August 2022) in ten Japanese prefectures (14.8 million residents). Among 552,581 study subjects, we found that there were 1836 fatalities during the isolation period (up to 28 days from date of onset). The highest age-standardized CFR (0.85%, 95% confidence interval (CI):0.78-0.92) was observed in cases diagnosed in the second 4-week period (January 31 to February 27), after which it declined significantly up to the 6th 4-week period (0.23%, 95% CI: 0.13-0.33, May 23 to June 19). The CFR then increased again but remained at 0.39% in the eighth period (July 18 to August 28). The CFR in cases with the BA.2 or BA.5 sublineages in the age range 60-80 years was significantly lower than that with BA.1 infections (60 years: 0.19%, 0.02%, 0.053%, respectively; 70 years: 0.91%, 0.33%, 0.39%; ≥80 years: 3.78%, 1.96%, 1.81%, respectively). We conclude that the risk of death in Japanese COVID-19 patients infected with Omicron variants declined through February to mid-June 2022.

High titers of neutralizing SARS-CoV-2 antibodies six months after symptom onset are associated with increased severity in COVID-19 hospitalized patients

BACKGROUND

Viral shedding and neutralizing antibody (NAb) dynamics among patients hospitalized with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and immune correlates of protection have been key questions throughout the pandemic. We investigated the duration of reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positivity, infectious viral shedding and NAb titers as well as the association between NAb titers and disease severity in hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Denmark 2020-2021.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Prospective single-center observational cohort study of 47 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Oropharyngeal swabs were collected at eight time points during the initial 30 days of inclusion. Serum samples were collected after a median time of 7 (IQR 5 - 10), 37 (IQR 35 - 38), 97 (IQR 95 - 100), and 187 (IQR 185 - 190) days after symptom onset. NAb titers were determined by an in-house live virus microneutralization assay. Viral culturing was performed in Vero E6 cells.

RESULTS

Patients with high disease severity had higher mean log₂ NAb titers at day 37 (1.58, 95% CI [0.34 -2.81]), 97 (2.07, 95% CI [0.53-3.62]) and 187 (2.49, 95% CI [0.20- 4.78]) after symptom onset, compared to patients with low disease severity. Peak viral load (0.072, 95% CI [- 0.627 - 0.728]), expressed as log₁₀ SARS-CoV-2 copies/ml, was not associated with disease severity. Virus cultivation attempts were unsuccessful in almost all (60/61) oropharyngeal samples collected shortly after hospital admission.

CONCLUSIONS

We document an association between high disease severity and high mean NAb titers at days 37, 97 and 187 after symptom onset. However, peak viral load during admission was not associated with disease severity.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The study is registered at https://clinicaltrials.gov/ (NCT05274373).

Clinical Outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 Breakthrough Infections in Liver Transplant Recipients during the Omicron Wave

At the start of the pandemic, liver transplant recipients (LTR) were at high risk of developing severe COVID-19. Here, the outcomes of breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated LTR (n = 98) during the Omicron wave were assessed. In most patients, a mild disease course was observed, but 11 LTR (11.2%) required hospitalization for COVID-19-related complications. All patients survived. The LTR requiring hospitalization were older (67 years vs. 54 years; p < 0.001), had a higher Charlson comorbidity index (9 vs. 5; p < 0.001), and a lower anti-S RBD titer (Roche Elecsys) prior to infection (508.3 AU/mL vs. 2044 AU/mL; p = 0.03). Long-lasting symptoms for ≥4 weeks were reported by 37.5% of LTR (30/80). Risk factors in LTR included female sex (p = 0.01; Odds Ratio (OR) = 4.92 (95% confidence interval (CI) (1.5-16.5)) and dyspnea (p = 0.009; OR = 7.2 (95% CI (1.6-31.6)) during infection. Post-infection high anti-S RBD antibody levels were observed in LTR, and healthy controls (HC), while the cellular immune response, assessed by interferon-gamma release assay (EUROIMMUN), was significantly lower in LTR compared with HC (p < 0.001). In summary, in fully vaccinated LTR, SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections during the Omicron wave led to mild disease courses in the majority of patients and further boosted the humoral and cellular hybrid anti-SARS-CoV-2-directed immune response. While all patients survived, older and multimorbid LTR with low baseline antibody titers after vaccination still had a substantial risk for a disease course requiring hospitalization due to COVID-19-related complications.

SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variant Genomic Sequences and Their Epidemiological Correlates Regarding the End of the Pandemic: In Silico Analysis

BACKGROUND

Emergence of the new SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.529 worried health policy makers worldwide due to a large number of mutations in its genomic sequence, especially in the spike protein region. The World Health Organization (WHO) designated this variant as a global variant of concern (VOC), which was named "Omicron." Following Omicron's emergence, a surge of new COVID-19 cases was reported globally, primarily in South Africa.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to understand whether Omicron had an epidemiological advantage over existing variants.

METHODS

We performed an in silico analysis of the complete genomic sequences of Omicron available on the Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) database to analyze the functional impact of the mutations present in this variant on virus-host interactions in terms of viral transmissibility, virulence/lethality, and immune escape. In addition, we performed a correlation analysis of the relative proportion of the genomic sequences of specific SARS-CoV-2 variants (in the period from October 1 to November 29, 2021) with matched epidemiological data (new COVID-19 cases and deaths) from South Africa.

RESULTS

Compared with the current list of global VOCs/variants of interest (VOIs), as per the WHO, Omicron bears more sequence variation, specifically in the spike protein and host receptor-binding motif (RBM). Omicron showed the closest nucleotide and protein sequence homology with the Alpha variant for the complete sequence and the RBM. The mutations were found to be primarily condensed in the spike region (n=28-48) of the virus. Further mutational analysis showed enrichment for the mutations decreasing binding affinity to angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor and receptor-binding domain protein expression, and for increasing the propensity of immune escape. An inverse correlation of Omicron with the Delta variant was noted (r=-0.99, P<.001; 95% CI -0.99 to -0.97) in the sequences reported from South Africa postemergence of the new variant, subsequently showing a decrease. There was a steep rise in new COVID-19 cases in parallel with the increase in the proportion of Omicron isolates since the report of the first case (74%-100%). By contrast, the incidence of new deaths did not increase (r=-0.04, P>.05; 95% CI -0.52 to 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

In silico analysis of viral genomic sequences suggests that the Omicron variant has more remarkable immune-escape ability than existing VOCs/VOIs, including Delta, but reduced virulence/lethality than other reported variants. The higher power for immune escape for Omicron was a likely reason for the resurgence in COVID-19 cases and its rapid rise as the globally dominant strain. Being more infectious but less lethal than the existing variants, Omicron could have plausibly led to widespread unnoticed new, repeated, and vaccine breakthrough infections, raising the population-level immunity barrier against the emergence of new lethal variants. The Omicron variant could have thus paved the way for the end of the pandemic.

Clinical Outcome of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Patients with Primary Antibody Deficiencies

In 2019, the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, caused a worldwide pandemic, affecting more than 630 million individuals and causing 6.5 million deaths. In the general population, poorer outcomes have been associated with older age, chronic lung and cardiovascular diseases, and lymphopenia, highlighting the important role of cellular immunity in the immune response against SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 variants may have a significant impact on disease severity. There is a significant overlap with complications commonly found in inborn errors of immunity (IEI), such as primary antibody deficiencies. The results of various studies have provided ambiguous findings. Several studies identified risk factors in the general population with a minor impact on SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, other studies have found a significant contribution of underlying immunodeficiency and immune-system dysregulation to the disease course. This ambiguity probably reflects the demographic differences and viral evolution. Impaired antibody production was associated with prolonged viral shedding, suggesting a critical role of humoral immunity in controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection. This may explain the poorer outcomes in primary antibody deficiencies compared to other IEIs. Understanding coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pathogenesis and identifying risk factors may help us identify patients at high risk of severe COVID-19 for whom preventive measures should be introduced.

Analysis of the effect of cytomegalovirus infection in clinical outcomes and prolonged duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding in intensive care unit patients with COVID-19 pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global outbreak disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection can occur in critical COVID-19 patients and is associated with adverse clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to explore the clinical characteristics and outcome of CMV infection in critical COVID-19 patients.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

From May to September 2021, SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 patients with intensive care unit (ICU) admission were enrolled. CMV infection was confirmed by PCR. Baseline characteristics, critical illness data and clinical outcomes were recorded and analyzed.

RESULTS

Seventy-two RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients with ICU admission were included during the study period and 48 (66.7%) patients required mechanical ventilation (MV). Overall, in-hospital mortality was 19.4%. Twenty-one (29.2%) patients developed CMV infection. Patients with CMV infection had a higher likelihood of diabetes, higher lactate dehydrogenase and lactate levels, and higher proportions of MV, anticoagulant, and steroid use. Patients with CMV infection were associated with longer duration of SARS-CoV-2 shedding, longer ICU and hospital stay, and fewer ventilator-free days. The independent risk factor for development of CMV infection was a higher accumulative steroid dose.

CONCLUSION

CMV infection adversely impacted the outcomes of critical COVID-19 patients, resulting in longer ICU stays, longer mechanical ventilation uses and prolonged shedding of SARS-CoV-2.

Comparison of clinical outcomes in critically ill COVID-19 patients on mechanical ventilation with nosocomial pneumonia between Alpha and Omicron variants

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic that has resulted in millions of deaths worldwide. Critically ill COVID-19 patients who require intubation and develop nosocomial pneumonia, commonly caused by gram-negative bacilli, have a higher mortality rate than those without nosocomial pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to compare the clinical characteristics and outcomes and associated risk factors of Alpha and Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variants in critically ill patients on mechanical ventilation (MV) with nosocomial pneumonia.

DESIGN

This is a retrospective single-center cohort study.

METHODS

This observational study was conducted at Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan from May 2021 to September 2022. Critically ill patients who had confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and intubated on a MV with bacterial pneumonia were enrolled. Demographic data, laboratory results, and treatment information were collected and analyzed. In addition, clinical outcomes among different SARS-CoV-2 variants were examined.

RESULTS

This study included 94 critically ill COVID-19 patients who required intubation and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The Alpha group had a longer duration of SARS-CoV-2 viral shedding, MV days, and ICU stay, while the Omicron group had older age, more comorbidities, higher APACHE II scores, and higher in-hospital mortality (47.0% versus 25.0%, p = 0.047). However, independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality included malignancy, lower serum albumin levels, and lack of Remdesivir treatment, except for the SARS-CoV-2 variant.

CONCLUSION

Our study discovered a higher in-hospital mortality rate in severe COVID-19 patients with MV and secondary pneumonia infected with the Omicron variant compared to the Alpha variant; however, real independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality are malignancy, lower serum albumin level, and lack of Remdesivir treatment.

Lack of effectiveness of Bebtelovimab monoclonal antibody among high-risk patients with SARS-Cov-2 Omicron during BA.2, BA.2.12.1 and BA.5 subvariants dominated era

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron subvariants are expected to be resistant to Bebtelovimab (BEB) monoclonal antibody (MAb) and the real-world experience regarding its effectiveness is scarce. This retrospective cohort study reports a data analysis in Banner Healthcare System (a large not-for-profit organization) between 4/5/2022 and 8/1/2022 and included 19,778 Coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) positive (by PCR or direct antigen testing) patients who were selected from Cerner-Electronic Health Record after the exclusions criteria were met. The study index date for cohort was determined as the date of BEB MAb administration or the date of the first positive COVID-19 testing. The cohort consist of COVID-19 infected patients who received BEB MAb (N = 1,091) compared to propensity score (PS) matched control (N = 1,091). The primary composite outcome was the incidence of 30-day all-cause hospitalization and/or mortality. All statistical analyses were conducted on the paired (matched) dataset. For the primary composite outcome, the event counts and percentages were reported. Ninety-five percent Clopper-Pearson confidence intervals for percentages were computed. The study cohorts were 1:1 propensity matched without replacement across 26 covariates using an optimal matching algorithm that minimizes the sum of absolute pairwise distance across the matched sample after fitting and using logistic regression as the distance function. The pairs were matched exactly on patient vaccination status, BMI group, age group and diabetes status. Compared to the PS matched control group (2.6%; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.7%, 3.7%), BEB MAb use (2.2%; 95% CI: 1.4%, 3.3%) did not significantly reduce the incidence of the primary outcome (p = 0.67). In the subgroup analysis, we observed similar no-difference trends regarding the primary outcomes for the propensity rematched BEB MAb treated and untreated groups, stratified by patient vaccination status, age (<65 years or ≥65), and immunocompromised status (patients with HIV/AIDS or solid organ transplants or malignancy including lymphoproliferative disorder). The number needed to treat (1/0.026-0.022) with BEB MAb was 250 to avoid one hospitalization and/or death over 30 days. The BEB MAb use lacked efficacy in patients with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants (mainly BA.2, BA.2.12.1, and BA.5) in the Banner Healthcare System in the Southwestern United States.

The Impact and Progression of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Bulgaria in Its First Two Years

After initially having low levels of SARS-CoV-2 infections for much of the year, Bulgaria experienced a major epidemic surge at the end of 2020, which caused the highest recorded excess mortality in Europe, among the highest in the word (Excess Mortality Rate, or EMR ∼0.25%). Two more major waves followed in 2021, followed by another one in early 2022. In this study, we analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of excess mortality at the national and local levels and across different demographic groups in Bulgaria and compare those to the European levels. Bulgaria has continued to exhibit the previous pattern of extremely high excess mortality, as measured both by crude mortality metrics (an EMR of ∼1.05%, up to the end of March 2022) and by standardized ones—Potential Years of Life Lost (PYLL) and Aged-Standardized Years of life lost Rate (ASYR). Unlike Western Europe, the bulk of excess mortality in Bulgaria, as well as in several other countries in Eastern Europe, occurred in the second year of the pandemic, likely related to the differences in the levels of vaccination coverage between these regions. We also observe even more extreme levels of excess mortality at the regional level and in some subpopulations (e.g., total EMR values for males ≥ 2% and EMR values for males aged 40–64 ≥ 1% in certain areas). We discuss these observations in light of the estimates of infection fatality rate (IFR) and eventual population fatality rate (PFR) made early in the course of the pandemic.