The isolated effect of age on the risk of COVID-19 severe outcomes: a systematic review with meta-analysis

Belief in misinformation and acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine boosters: A survey analysis

Objective

This study examines the impact of misinformation belief on the willingness of American adults to receive ongoing COVID-19 vaccine boosters.

Methods

A representative survey of 600 adults in the state of Florida was fielded in August of 2023. For this study, responses were analyzed for the 443 previously vaccinated respondents in that sample using both descriptive and inferential statistical methods.

Results

Among previously vaccinated individuals, belief in misinformation remained relatively high. 49% of respondents believe that COVID-19 vaccines contain a live strain of the virus, and roughly 40% believe that vaccines can cause you to "get sick" with COVID-19. Belief in misinformation was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the likelihood of receiving ongoing vaccine boosters, ceteris paribus.

Conclusion

While confidence in public health guidelines is the most compelling determinant of vaccine acceptance, misinformation continues to undermine vaccination efforts. Addressing common myths about COVID-19 vaccines may help to improve booster shot acceptance among previously vaccinated Americans.

Innovation

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, health professionals and public health agencies have been forced to innovate in real-time, as digital platforms have fueled the spread of viral misinformation. This study aims to inform these efforts by exploring and deepening our understanding of the impact that belief in misinformation has on vaccination behaviors.

Socio-economic inequalities in the breadth of internet use before and during the COVID-19 pandemic among older adults in England

Understanding digital exclusion in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic could help tailor responses to future outbreaks. This cohort study used data from older adults aged 60+ years in England who participated in wave nine (2018/2019) of the main English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) survey, and/or wave one of the ELSA COVID-19 sub-study (June/July 2020). Using latent class analysis and latent transition analysis, we aimed to identify distinct subgroups of older adults characterised by different patterns of internet use pre- and intra-pandemic, explore the extent to which individuals remained in the same subgroup or transitioned to a different subgroup during the COVID-19 pandemic, and examine longitudinal associations of socio-economic factors (education, occupational class, and wealth) with latent class membership. Preliminary tests showed that the types of internet activities differed between men and women; therefore, subsequent analyses were stratified by biological sex. Three clusters (low, medium, and high) were identified in male participants at both timepoints. Among female participants, three clusters were distinguished pre-pandemic and two (low versus high) during the pandemic. The latent classes were characterised by participants' breadth of internet use. Higher education, occupational class, and wealth were associated with greater odds of membership in the medium and/or high classes, versus the low class, in men and women. A high degree of stability in latent class membership was observed over time. However, men experienced a stark decrease in online health information-seeking. Our results highlight that inequality regarding the range of functional and social opportunities provided by the internet prevailed during the pandemic. Policymakers should ensure that digital access and upskilling initiatives are equitable for all.

Consumption of Meats and Fish in Poland during the COVID-19 Lockdown Period

The COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions have significantly impacted the quality of life of society in many countries in various aspects. The purpose of this study was to examine how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the consumption of meat and fish in society in Poland as well as the factors that determined these changes. The cross-sectional study was conducted using an original online questionnaire between 8th and 18th of April 2020. The subjects were selected randomly. The target population were adults living in Poland. The inclusion criterion for the study was the age of at least 18 years and consent to selfless participation in the study. Communication via social media such as Facebook or Instagram was used to enroll more participants from different socio-demographic subgroups. The questionnaire was divided into two parts-the first part contained questions about sex, age, body mass, body height, residence, level of education, and occupation, and the second part consisted of specific questions about the consumption frequency of different kinds of meat during the COVID-19 lockdown period (in comparison to the time before the pandemic). A total of 3888 people took part in the study including 84.54% women, with an average age of 30.17 ± 9.22 years. The frequency of poultry consumption increased, while for pork, beef, ham and other meat products as well as fish and seafood it declined. The factors that influenced the change in dietary patterns during the lockdown related to the COVID-19 pandemic included age, body mass index, gender, place of residence, and type of work performed. However, no relationship was found between the change in meat and fish consumption during the pandemic and the level of education and form of employment during the pandemic.

Comparison between high-flow nasal oxygen (HFNO) alternated with non-invasive ventilation (NIV) and HFNO and NIV alone in patients with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Non-invasive respiratory support (conventional oxygen therapy [COT], non-invasive ventilation [NIV], high-flow nasal oxygen [HFNO], and NIV alternated with HFNO [NIV + HFNO] may reduce the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) in patients with COVID-19. The outcome of patients treated non-invasively depends on clinical severity at admission. We assessed the need for IMV according to NIV, HFNO, and NIV + HFNO in patients with COVID-19 according to disease severity and evaluated in-hospital survival rates and hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) lengths of stay.

METHODS

This cohort study was conducted using data collected between March 2020 and July 2021. Patients ≥ 18 years admitted to the ICU with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were included. Patients hospitalized for < 3 days, receiving therapy (COT, NIV, HFNO, or NIV + HFNO) for < 48 h, pregnant, and with no primary outcome data were excluded. The COT group was used as reference for multivariate Cox regression model adjustment.

RESULTS

Of 1371 patients screened, 958 were eligible: 692 (72.2%) on COT, 92 (9.6%) on NIV, 31 (3.2%) on HFNO, and 143 (14.9%) on NIV + HFNO. The results for the patients in each group were as follows: median age (interquartile range): NIV (64 [49-79] years), HFNO (62 [55-70] years), NIV + HFNO (62 [48-72] years) (p = 0.615); heart failure: NIV (54.5%), HFNO (36.3%), NIV + HFNO (9%) (p = 0.003); diabetes mellitus: HFNO (17.6%), NIV + HFNO (44.7%) (p = 0.048). > 50% lung damage on chest computed tomography (CT): NIV (13.3%), HFNO (15%), NIV + HFNO (71.6%) (p = 0.038); SpO2/FiO2: NIV (271 [118-365] mmHg), HFNO (317 [254-420] mmHg), NIV + HFNO (229 [102-317] mmHg) (p = 0.001); rate of IMV: NIV (26.1%, p = 0.002), HFNO (22.6%, p = 0.023), NIV + HFNO (46.8%); survival rate: HFNO (83.9%), NIV + HFNO (63.6%) (p = 0.027); ICU length of stay: NIV (8.5 [5-14] days), NIV + HFNO (15 [10-25] days (p < 0.001); hospital length of stay: NIV (13 [10-21] days), NIV + HFNO (20 [15-30] days) (p < 0.001). After adjusting for comorbidities, chest CT score and SpO2/FiO2, the risk of IMV in patients on NIV + HFNO remained high (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% confidence interval, 1.17-3.04).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with COVID-19, NIV alternating with HFNO was associated with a higher rate of IMV independent of the presence of comorbidities, chest CT score and SpO2/FiO2. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT05579080.

Comorbidities affecting re-admission and survival in COVID-19: Application of joint frailty model

BACKGROUND

One of the common concerns of healthcare systems is the potential for re-admission of COVID-19 patients. In addition to adding costs to the healthcare system, re-admissions also endanger patient safety. Recognizing the factors that influence re-admission, can help provide appropriate and optimal health care. The aim of this study was to assess comorbidities that affect re-admission and survival in COVID-19 patients using a joint frailty model.

METHODS

This historical cohort study was done using data of patients with COVID-19 who were re-hospitalized more than twice in a referral hospital in North of Iran. We used the joint frailty model to investigate prognostic factors of survival and recurrence, simultaneously using R version 3.5.1 (library "frailtypack"). P-values less than 0.05 were considered as statistically significant.

RESULTS

A total of 112 patients with mean (SD) age of 63.76 (14.58) years old were recruited into the study. Forty-eight (42.9%) patients died in which 53.83% of them were re-admitted for a second time. Using adjusted joint model, the hazard of re-admission increased with cancer (Hazard ratio (HR) = 1.92) and hyperlipidemia (HR = 1.22). Furthermore, the hazard of death increased with hyperlipidemia (HR = 4.05) followed by age (HR = 1.76) and cancer (HR = 1.64). It Also decreased with lung disease (HR = 0.11), hypothyroidism (HR = 0.32), and hypertension (HR = 0.97).

CONCLUSION

Considering the correlation between re-admission and mortality in the joint frailty model, malignancy and hyperlipidemia increased the risk of both re-admission and mortality. Moreover, lung disease probably due to the use of corticosteroids, was a protective factor against both mortality and re-admission.

Assessment of the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Infection on the Sexual Function of Women, Levels of Oxytocin and Prolactin: A Prospective Cohort Study

(1) Background: There is a lack of direct evidence on whether SARS-CoV-2 affects women's sexual function through a biological-organic mechanism. Existing studies on the topic are few and have produced contradictory results. This study aims to explore the possible relationship between sex hormones and sexual function in patients who have been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Moreover, we aimed to determine whether these changes are related to the clinical course of COVID-19 and whether they are temporary or long-lasting. (2) Methods: A study was conducted on 104 women, including 64 women infected with COVID-19 and a control group of 40 healthy women, between January 2021 and August 2022. Blood samples were collected to measure prolactin and oxytocin levels, and a clinical assessment was performed 3 and 6 months later. Sexual function self-assessment was captured based on the FSFI scale. (3) Results: Our study found that patients with severe COVID-19 had better sexual satisfaction scores one month after recovery but no discernible difference after six months. High levels of serum prolactin were observed in patients with active COVID-19 but became similar to a control group after one month and remained stable over time. Higher prolactin levels were significantly associated with increased arousal and hydration. Individuals with severe COVID-19 had notably low levels of plasma oxytocin, but there was no correlation between oxytocin levels and sexual satisfaction. (4) Conclusions: The gynecologic symptoms, as well as disturbances in oxytocin and prolactin levels, might be observed in a short time after infection. However, SARS-CoV-2 infection has no lasting effect on sexual function, oxytocin, and prolactin levels among women.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Marine Sponge-Derived Secondary Metabolites Modulate SARS-CoV-2 Entry Mechanisms

The emergence of SARS-CoV 2 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in numerous global infections and deaths. In particular, people with metabolic diseases display an increased risk of severe COVID 19 and a fatal outcome. Treatment options for severe cases are limited, and the appearance of new virus variants complicates the development of novel therapies. To better manage viral infections like COVID 19, new therapeutic approaches are needed. Marine sponges offer a natural and renewable source of unique bioactive agents. These sponges produce secondary metabolites with various effects, including anti-viral, anti-inflammatory, and anti-tumorigenic properties. In the current study, we investigated the effect of five different marine sponge-derived secondary metabolites (four bromotyrosines and one sesquiterpenoid hydroquinone). Two of these, Avarol and Acetyl-dibromoverongiaquinol reduced the expression of ACE2, the main receptor for SARS-CoV 2, and the alternative receptor NRP1. Moreover, these substances derived from sponges demonstrated the ability to diminish the virus titer in SARS-CoV 2-infected cells, especially concerning the Omicron lineage. However, the reduction was not substantial enough to expect a significant impact on infected humans. Consequently, the investigated sponge-derived secondary metabolites are not likely to be effective to treat COVID 19 as a stand-alone therapy.

Clinical Manifestations and Outcomes of Older Patients with COVID-19: A Comprehensive Review

The consequences of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are particularly severe in older adults with a disproportionate number of severe and fatal outcomes. Therefore, this integrative review aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the clinical characteristics, management approaches, and prognosis of older patients diagnosed with COVID-19. Common clinical presentations in older patients include fever, cough, and dyspnea. Additionally, preexisting comorbidities, especially diabetes and pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases, were frequently observed and associated with adverse outcomes. Management strategies varied, however, early diagnosis, vigilant monitoring, and multidisciplinary care were identified as key factors for enhancing patient outcomes. Nonetheless, the prognosis remains guarded for older patients, with increased rates of hospitalization, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. However, timely therapeutic interventions, especially antiviral and supportive treatments, have demonstrated some efficacy in mitigating the severe consequences in this age group. In conclusion, while older adults remain highly susceptible to severe outcomes from COVID-19, early intervention, rigorous monitoring, and comprehensive care can play a pivotal role in improving their clinical outcomes.

Evolution of COVID-19 infection in Punjab; trends during five waves of infection in the province of Punjab

BACKGROUND

Pakistan witnessed five waves of COVID-19 infections during the pandemic. Punjab, the largest province of Pakistan, remained the epicentre due to a high infection rate. Administrative data for five waves of the pandemic was analyzed to determine the rate of infections and the significance of pharmacological and non-pharmacological interventions on the severity and duration of infection.

METHODOLOGY

COVID-19 data from March 2020 to May 2023 was obtained from the Provincial Public Health Reference Laboratory (PPHRL), Punjab AIDS Control Program, Lahore. The data included samples from index cases, contacts, and recovered patients. A total of 36,252,48 cases were screened for COVID-19, and 90,923 (2.50%) were detected positive by RT-PCR, accounting for 5.69% of the cases reported positive throughout the country.

RESULTS

Among the positive cases, 50.86% (n = 46,244) cases were new cases (registered for the first time), 40.41% (n = 36751) were the contact cases traced from the newly identified cases and 8.62% (n = 7842) repeated cases. The positivity rates among index cases were reported to be 2.37%, 2.34%, 4.61%, 2.09%, and 1.19%, respectively, for the five respective COVID-19 pandemic waves. Distribution by gender indicated that 64% of males and 35% of females were infected during the pandemic. The age factor demonstrated the most susceptibility to infection in women aged 19-29 years, whereas most males between the ages of 29-39 had an infection. Susceptibility to COVID-19 infection was observed to be equally likely between males and females; however, clinical outcomes indicated that infections in males were more severe and often resulted in fatalities as compared to those in females. This trend was also reflected in the viral titer as measured by the Ct values, where 40% of males had Ct values < 25 (an indicator of high viral titers) compared to 30% of females with Ct values < 25.

CONCLUSION

Overall, our data indicated that infection rates remained stable throughout the pandemic except for 3rd wave, which showed a higher incidence of infection rate of 4%. Additionally, data showed a positive impact of masking, social distancing, and immunization, as indicated by the shorter window of high infection rates.

Viral Epitope Scanning Reveals Correlation between Seasonal HCoVs and SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Responses among Cancer and Non-Cancer Patients

Seasonal coronaviruses (HCoVs) are known to contribute to cross-reactive antibody (Ab) responses against SARS-CoV-2. While these responses are predictable due to the high homology between SARS-CoV-2 and other CoVs, the impact of these responses on susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection in cancer patients is unclear. To investigate the influence of prior HCoV infection on anti-SARS-CoV-2 Ab responses among COVID-19 asymptomatic individuals with cancer and controls without cancers, we utilized the VirScan technology in which phage immunoprecipitation and sequencing (PhIP-seq) of longitudinal plasma samples was performed to investigate high-resolution (i.e., epitope level) humoral CoV responses. Despite testing positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 Ab in the plasma, a majority of the participants were asymptomatic for COVID-19 with no prior history of COVID-19 diagnosis. Although the magnitudes of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 Ab responses were lower in individuals with Kaposi sarcoma (KS) compared to non-KS cancer individuals and those without cancer, the HCoV Ab repertoire was similar between individuals with and without cancer independent of age, sex, HIV status, and chemotherapy. The magnitudes of the anti-spike HCoV responses showed a strong positive association with those of the anti-SARS-CoV-2 spike in cancer patients, and only a weak association in non-cancer patients, suggesting that prior infection with HCoVs might play a role in limiting SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 disease severity.

Age and co-morbidities as independent risk factors of infections leading to hospital admission in the last year of life among the elderly: A retrospective registry-based study

Background

The immune system declines with age, but the impact of chronological age may be affected by sex, co-morbidities, and sociodemographic factors.

Objective

The article aims to study infections associated with hospital admission in the elderly in their last year of life and the impact of age, sex, co-morbidities, and sociodemographic factors.

Method

A retrospective study based on registry data covering all care visits in Stockholm Region, Sweden, for 7 years was conducted. All deceased subjects with at least one hospital admission with infection as the main diagnosis in the last year of life were compared with subjects with no such admission. Subjects were categorized into three different age-groups 65-79, 80-89, and 90 years and above. Co-morbidity was measured by the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and sociodemographic factors were assessed using the 'Mosaic-system'. Subjects living in nursing homes were analyzed separately. Uni- and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted.

Results

Of the 55,238 subjects in the study population, 14,192 (26%) had at least one hospital admission due to infection in the last year of life. The risk of having a severe infection increased with age, adjusted odds ratio (OR): 1.30 (1.25-1.36), and 1.60 (1.52-1.69) for the age-groups 80-89 and ≥ 90 compared to the age-group 65-79. The most important factor for infection was a high co-morbidity score; adjusted OR: 1.75 (1.68-1.82). Male sex and living in a less affluent area were weaker risk factors for infections.

Conclusion

Chronological age and co-morbidities are independent risk factors of infections associated with hospital admission in the last year in life while male sex and sociodemographic factors have less impact.

COVID-19-associated costs and mortality in Germany: an incidence-based analysis from a payer's perspective

BACKGROUND

This study aims to estimate average COVID-19-associated healthcare costs per capita in Germany from a payer perspective. In addition, insights into COVID-19-associated mortality should be gained.

METHODS

For this purpose, a retrospective longitudinal analysis using health insurance claims data was performed. Patients affected by COVID-19 in Q1/2021 (investigation group (IG)) were compared to a matched non-COVID-19 control group (CG) (1:1 propensity score matching (PSM)). Mean values of healthcare costs in 2020 and 2021 were computed for both groups and then separated by age and by development of Post-COVID-19 Syndrome (PCS). Group differences were examined using Mann-Whitney U test (α = 0.05). Difference-in-Differences approach (DiD) was used to estimate average cost effects of COVID-19 in 2021. Concerning mortality, the number of deaths in 2021 was compared between IG and CG using χ2 test of independence.

RESULTS

A total of 8,014 insurants were included (n = 4,007 per group; n = 536 per group examining PCS patients only). Total healthcare costs varied a lot in the sample, were comparable between IG and CG in 2020, but were significantly higher in the IG in 2021 (DiD estimate = € 1,063 (in total); € 3,242 (PCS group)). This was more pronounced in the older age groups. High hospital costs of a minority of patients were the most influential driver of COVID-19-associated healthcare costs. Mortality was more than doubled in the IG (tripled in patients aged ≥ 60).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 is associated with significantly increased healthcare costs and mortality, especially in older age groups. The additional development of PCS further increases the costs of COVID-19.

Diabetes Mellitus, Energy Metabolism, and COVID-19

Obesity, diabetes mellitus (mostly type 2), and COVID-19 show mutual interactions because they are not only risk factors for both acute and chronic COVID-19 manifestations, but also because COVID-19 alters energy metabolism. Such metabolic alterations can lead to dysglycemia and long-lasting effects. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential for a further rise of the diabetes pandemic. This review outlines how preexisting metabolic alterations spanning from excess visceral adipose tissue to hyperglycemia and overt diabetes may exacerbate COVID-19 severity. We also summarize the different effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection on the key organs and tissues orchestrating energy metabolism, including adipose tissue, liver, skeletal muscle, and pancreas. Last, we provide an integrative view of the metabolic derangements that occur during COVID-19. Altogether, this review allows for better understanding of the metabolic derangements occurring when a fire starts from a small flame, and thereby help reducing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Parents' Trust in COVID-19 Messengers and Implications for Vaccination

PURPOSE

To characterize factors associated with parents' trust in messengers of COVID-19 guidance and determine whether trust in their doctors is associated with COVID-19 vaccination.

DESIGN

Web-based and mailed survey (January-June 2022).

SETTING

Maryland, USA.

SUBJECTS

567 parents/caregivers of public elementary and middle school students.

MEASURES

Parents rated trust in 9 messengers on a 4-point scale ["not at all" (0) to "a great deal" (3)], dichotomized into low (0-1) vs high (2-3). They reported on health insurance, income, race, ethnicity, education, sex, urbanicity, political affiliation, and COVID-19 vaccination.

ANALYSIS

ANOVA and t-tests were computed to compare overall trust by parent characteristics. Multivariable logistic regression was run to evaluate factors associated with high trust for each messenger. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between trust in doctors and odds of COVID-19 vaccination.

RESULTS

Most trusted messengers were doctors (M = 2.65), family members (M = 1.87), and schools (M = 1.81). Parents' trust varied by racial identity, sex, urbanicity, health insurance, and political affiliation. Greater trust in their or their child's doctor was associated with greater odds of child (aOR: 2.97; 95% CI: 1.10, 7.98) and parent (aOR: 3.30; 95% CI: 1.23, 1.47) vaccination.

CONCLUSION

Parent characteristics were associated with trust, and trust was linked to vaccination. Public health professionals should anticipate variability in trusted messengers to optimize uptake of public health guidance.

Social determinants of spatial inequalities in COVID-19 outcomes across England: A multiscale geographically weighted regression analysis

A variety of factors are associated with greater COVID-19 morbidity or mortality, due to how these factors influence exposure to (in the case of morbidity) or severity of (in the case of mortality) COVID-19 infections. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression to study spatial variation in the factors associated with COVID-19 morbidity and mortality rates at the local authority level across England (UK). We investigate the period between March 2020 and March 2021, prior to the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccination program. We consider a variety of factors including demographic (e.g. age, gender, and ethnicity), health (e.g. rates of smoking, obesity, and diabetes), social (e.g. Index of Multiple Deprivation), and economic (e.g. the Gini coefficient and economic complexity index) factors that have previously been found to impact COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The Index of Multiple Deprivation has a significant impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths in all local authorities, although the effect is the strongest in the south of England. Higher proportions of ethnic minorities are associated with higher levels of COVID-19 mortality, with the strongest effect being found in the west of England. There is again a similar pattern in terms of cases, but strongest in the north of the country. Other factors including age and gender are also found to have significant effects on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, with differential spatial effects across the country. The results provide insights into how national and local policymakers can take account of localized factors to address spatial health inequalities and address future infectious disease pandemics.

Inequalities in the recovery of colorectal cancer services during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national population-based study

AIM

Evidence is lacking on whether there were inequalities in the recovery of colorectal cancer (CRC) services within the English National Health Service (NHS) following the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of this study was to evaluate recovery according to patient age and socioeconomic status.

METHOD

Using routinely collected data, CRC patients diagnosed and treated in the English NHS were identified for two timeframes: the 'initial pandemic period' (April-June 2020) and the 'pandemic period' (April 2020-March 2022). Poisson models evaluated changes in numbers of diagnoses, major resections, adjuvant chemotherapy and neoadjuvant radiotherapy use for each timeframe, relative to the equivalent pre-pandemic timeframe (April-June 2019 and April 2018-March 2020, respectively), stratified by age and socioeconomic status. Tumour stage at presentation was evaluated over time.

RESULTS

Substantial deficits in diagnoses, major resections and adjuvant chemotherapy were identified in the initial pandemic period, whilst the use of neoadjuvant radiotherapy increased. Overall, these deficits recovered. Patients outside screening age, and in the most deprived group, had greater deficits in diagnoses and major resections. There was no evidence of stage migration by June 2021.

CONCLUSIONS

CRC services showed recovery to baseline during the pandemic. However, evident inequalities must be addressed in ongoing recovery efforts. Long-term outcomes will fully establish the impact of the pandemic on CRC patients.

Biochemical Alterations Associated With the Severity of COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Black African Individuals

BACKGROUND

Biochemical markers are essential in the monitoring and the clinical care of patients as they inform clinicians. Here, we characterized biochemical alterations in sub-Saharan Black African individuals with COVID-19.

METHODS

The study includes COVID-19 patients cared for at the Akanda Army Hospital in Libreville (Gabon). A total of 2237 patient records were extracted and reviewed. Patients were classified based on hospital admission (intensive care unit [ICU], internal medicine ward, and outpatient).

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred seventy-one were included in the study. ICU patients were significantly older than non-ICU hospitalized patients (P < 0.001) and outpatients (P < 0.0001). Hyperglycemic patients had 6.4 odds of being in ICU (P < 0.0001). Patients with abnormally high urea had 54.7 odds of being in ICU (P < 0.0001). Patients with abnormally high aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (>33 IU/L) had 3.5 odds of being in ICU (P < 0.0001). Hyperlactatemia (>246 IU/L) odds in ICU patients were 14 (P < 0.0001). The odds of abnormally high alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (>147 IU/L) in ICU patients were 4.6 (P < 0.0001). Odds for hypochloremia (<98 mmol/L) were 1.6 in ICU (P < 0.05). Dysnatremia patients (<135 or >145 mmol/L) had 9.5 odds of being found in ICU patients (P < 0.0001). The odds of potassium imbalance (<3.6 or >5 mmol/L) in ICU patients were 12.2 (P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19-associated biochemical alterations observed in the Black African population are similar to those observed in other populations, and the association between COVID-19 severity, hyperglycemia, and multi-organ affection is confirmed.

Factors affecting self-perceived mental health in the general older population during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Mental health problems among older people are large public health concerns but often go unrecognized and undertreated. During COVID - 19 several restrictions regarding social contacts were launched, primarily for the old. The objective of this study is to investigate which factors that had the main negative affect on mental health in the older population during the pandemic.

METHOD

A cross-sectional cohort study set in Swedish primary care during the pandemic years 2021-2022. The population constitutes of 70-80-years-old, N = 260. Instruments used are Geriatric depression scale 20 (GDS20); Hospital anxiety and depression scale (HADS), and Perceived stress scale 10 (PSS10). Sociodemography and risk factors are explored. Outcome measures are factors independently associated with decreased mental health. Analyses were performed for the group as a whole and with logistic regression models comparing individuals who stated they were mentally affected by the pandemic to individuals who stated they were not.

RESULTS

Participants who stated they were mentally affected by the COVID - 19 pandemic reported significantly higher levels of anxiety (p < 0.001), depression (p < 0.001), and stress (p = 0.026) compared to those who stated they were not mentally affected. Explanatory regression models of up to 50% showed that following factors were prominent among individuals who reported a decline in their mental health due to the COVID - 19 pandemic (n = 24); impaired social life (OR 20.29, p < 0.001, CI 4.53-90.81), change in physical activity (OR 5.28, p = 0.01, CI 1.49-18.72), perceived family situation (OR 31.90, p = 0,007, CI 2,53-402.42), mild/moderate and high anxiety (OR 4.94, p = 0.034, CI 1.13-21.60, OR 7.96, p = 0.035, CI 1.16-54.53 respectively), and female gender (OR 6.52, p = 0.029, CI 1.22-34.92).

CONCLUSION

Anxiety, family situation, social life and change in physical activity were the main factors influencing the 70-80-years-old's self-perceived mental health during the COVID - 19 pandemic. Long-term effects of social restrictions on mental health in the older population need to be further investigated.

Impact of COVID-19 Infections among Unvaccinated Patients with Congenital Heart Disease: Results of a Nationwide Analysis in the First Phase of the Pandemic

Background: The outcome data and predictors for mortality among patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) affected by COVID-19 are limited. A more detailed understanding may aid in implementing targeted prevention measures in potential future pandemic events. Methods: Based on nationwide administrative health insurance data, all the recorded in-hospital cases of patients with CHD with COVID-19 in 2020 were analyzed. The demographics, treatment details, as well as 30-day mortality rate were assessed. The associations of the patients' characteristics with death were assessed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Overall, 403 patients with CHD were treated in- hospital for COVID-19 in 2020. Of these, 338 patients presented with virus detection but no pneumonia whilst, 65 patients suffered from associated pneumonia. The cohort of patients with pneumonia was older (p = 0.04) and presented with more cardiovascular comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus (p = 0.08), although this parameter did not reach a statistically significant difference. The 30-day mortality rate was associated with highly complex CHD (odds ratio (OR) 7.81, p = 0.04) and advanced age (OR 2.99 per 10 years, p = 0.03). No child died of COVID-related pneumonia in our dataset. Conclusions: COVID-19 infection with associated pneumonia chiefly affected the older patients with CHD. Age and the complexity of CHD were identified as additional predictors of mortality. These aspects might be helpful to retrospectively audit the recommendations and guide health politics during future pandemic events.

Excess Mortality Stratified by Age and Sex for Croatia and Croatian Counties during the 2020-2021 COVID-19 Pandemic

Excess mortality is often used to estimate the effect of a certain crisis on the population. It is defined as the number of deaths during a crisis exceeding the expected number based on historical trends. Here, we calculated excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic for Croatia in the 2020-2021 period. The excess was calculated on the national and county level for different age and sex categories. In addition to the absolute number, the excess mortality was also expressed as a ratio of excess deaths to the predicted baseline and excess mortality rate. We showed that using both measures is necessary to avoid incorrect conclusions. The estimated excess mortality on the national level was 14,963, corresponding to an excess percentage of 14.3%. With respect to sex, there was a higher excess mortality rate for men compared to women. An exponential relationship was observed between age and the excess mortality rate.These trends wee representative of most counties as well, with large variations in the magnitude of the effect. However, there were also exceptions to the general rule. The reasons for these deviations were discussed in terms of between-county differences in demographic structure, population density and special events that took place during the pandemic.

HB-EGF Plasmatic Level Contributes to the Development of Early Risk Prediction Nomogram for Severe COVID-19 Cases

(1) Background: Heparin-Binding Epidermal Growth Factor-like Growth Factor (HB-EGF) is involved in wound healing, cardiac hypertrophy, and heart development processes. Recently, circulant HB-EGF was reported upregulated in severely hospitalized COVID-19 patients. However, the clinical correlations of HB-EGF plasma levels with COVID-19 patients' characteristics have not been defined yet. In this study, we assessed the plasma HB-EGF correlations with the clinical and paraclinical patients' data, evaluated its predictive clinical value, and built a risk prediction model for severe COVID-19 cases based on the resulting significant prognostic markers. (2) Methods: Our retrospective study enrolled 75 COVID-19 patients and 17 control cases from May 2020 to September 2020. We quantified plasma HB-EGF levels using the sandwich ELISA technique. Correlations between HB-EGF plasma levels with clinical and paraclinical patients' data were calculated using two-tailed Spearman and Point-Biserial tests. Significantly upregulated parameters for severe COVID-19 cases were identified and selected to build a multivariate logistic regression prediction model. The clinical significance of the prediction model was assessed by risk prediction nomogram and decision curve analyses. (3) Results: HB-EGF plasma levels were significantly higher in the severe COVID-19 subgroup compared to the controls (p = 0.004) and moderate cases (p = 0.037). In the severe COVID-19 group, HB-EGF correlated with age (p = 0.028), pulse (p = 0.016), dyspnea (p = 0.014) and prothrombin time (PT) (p = 0.04). The multivariate risk prediction model built on seven identified risk parameters (age p = 0.043, HB-EGF p = 0.0374, Fibrinogen p = 0.009, PT p = 0.008, Creatinine p = 0.026, D-Dimers p = 0.024 and delta miR-195 p < 0.0001) identifies severe COVID-19 with AUC = 0.9556 (p < 0.0001). The decision curve analysis revealed that the nomogram model is clinically relevant throughout a wide threshold probability range. (4) Conclusions: Upregulated HB-EGF plasma levels might serve as a prognostic factor for severe COVID-19 and help build a reliable risk prediction nomogram that improves the identification of high-risk patients at an early stage of COVID-19.

The sociodemographic patterning of sick leave and determinants of longer sick leave after mild and severe COVID-19: a nationwide register-based study in Sweden

BACKGROUND

Studies on sociodemographic differences in sick leave after coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are limited and research on COVID-19 long-term health consequences has mainly addressed hospitalized individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the social patterning of sick leave and determinants of longer sick leave after COVID-19 among mild and severe cases.

METHODS

The study population, from the Swedish multi-register observational study SCIFI-PEARL, included individuals aged 18-64 years in the Swedish population, gainfully employed, with a first positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from 1 January 2020 until 31 August 2021 (n = 661 780). Using logistic regression models, analyses were adjusted for sociodemographic factors, vaccination, prior sick leave, comorbidities and stratified by hospitalization.

RESULTS

In total, 37 420 (5.7%) individuals were on sick leave due to COVID-19 in connection with their first positive COVID-19 test. Individuals on sick leave were more often women, older, had lower income and/or were born outside Sweden. These differences were similar across COVID-19 pandemic phases. The highest proportion of sick leave was seen in the oldest age group (10.3%) with an odds ratio of 4.32 (95% confidence interval 4.18-4.47) compared with the youngest individuals. Among individuals hospitalized due to COVID-19, the sociodemographic pattern was less pronounced, and in some models, even reversed. The intersectional analysis revealed considerable variability in sick leave between sociodemographic groups (range: 1.5-17.0%).

CONCLUSION

In the entire Swedish population of gainfully employed individuals, our findings demonstrated evident sociodemographic differences in sick leave due to COVID-19. In the hospitalized group, the social patterning was different and less pronounced.

An Exploratory Analysis of Contributors to Cognitive Functioning Among Sexual and Gender Minority Individuals Who Had COVID-19

Sexual and gender minority (SGM) individuals face mental health disparities. However, research analyzing SGM people's mental health after a COVID-19 diagnosis is scarce. In this secondary analysis of a remote study, we 1) examined associations between cognitive and psychosocial health and 2) explored differences between these health outcomes among SGM (n = 14) and heterosexual cisgender (n = 64) U.S. adults who had COVID-19. We used the Patient Reported Outcome Measures Information System (PROMIS) v2.0 to assess subjective cognition and the BrainCheck cognitive test to analyze objective cognition. We administered the Perceived Stress Scale and PROMIS 57 Profile V.2.0 to measure psychosocial health. SGM COVID-19 survivors had worse scores in depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, stress, and objective cognition than heterosexual cisgender participants (p-values < .05). Objective cognition was associated with age, SGM classification, racial or ethnic minority classification, income, comorbidities, COVID-19 severity, number of symptoms, and pain (|0.137| < r < |0.373|, p-values < .05). Subjective cognition was associated with comorbidities, number of symptoms, depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance, pain, and stress (|0.158| < r < |0.537|, p-values < .05). Additional studies are needed to expand what is known about post-COVID-19 health disparities and to guide policies and interventions that promote cognitive functioning.

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on Scotland's care-homes from March 2020 to October 2021: national linked data cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term care residents remains of wide interest, but most analyses focus on the initial wave of infections.

OBJECTIVE

To examine change over time in: (i) The size, duration, classification and pattern of care-home outbreaks of COVID-19 and associated mortality and (ii) characteristics associated with an outbreak.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational cohort study using routinely-collected data.

SETTING

All adult care-homes in Scotland (1,092 homes, 41,299 places).

METHODS

Analysis was undertaken at care-home level, over three periods. Period (P)1 01/03/2020-31/08/2020; P2 01/09/2020-31/05/2021 and P3 01/06/2021-31/10/2021. Outcomes were the presence and characteristics of outbreaks and mortality within the care-home. Cluster analysis was used to compare the pattern of outbreaks. Logistic regression examined care-home characteristics associated with outbreaks.

RESULTS

In total 296 (27.1%) care-homes had one outbreak, 220 (20.1%) had two, 91 (8.3%) had three, and 68 (6.2%) had four or more. There were 1,313 outbreaks involving residents: 431 outbreaks in P1, 559 in P2 and 323 in P3. The COVID-19 mortality rate per 1,000 beds fell from 45.8 in P1, to 29.3 in P2, and 3.5 in P3. Larger care-homes were much more likely to have an outbreak, but associations between size and outbreaks were weaker in later periods.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 mitigation measures appear to have been beneficial, although the impact on residents remained severe until early 2021. Care-home residents, staff, relatives and providers are critical groups for consideration and involvement in future pandemic planning.

Pandemic lifeworlds: A segmentation analysis of public responsiveness to official communication about Covid-19 in England

Pandemics such as Covid-19 pose tremendous public health communication challenges in promoting protective behaviours, vaccination, and educating the public about risks. Segmenting audiences based on attitudes and behaviours is a means to increase the precision and potential effectiveness of such communication. The present study reports on such an audience segmentation effort for the population of England, sponsored by the United Kingdom Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and involving a collaboration of market research and academic experts. A cross-sectional online survey was conducted between 4 and 24 January 2022 with 5525 respondents (5178 used in our analyses) in England using market research opt-in panel. An additional 105 telephone interviews were conducted to sample persons without online or smartphone access. Respondents were quota sampled to be demographically representative. The primary analytic technique was k means cluster analysis, supplemented with other techniques including multi-dimensional scaling and use of respondent - as well as sample-standardized data when necessary to address differences in response set for some groups of respondents. Identified segments were profiled against demographic, behavioural self-report, attitudinal, and communication channel variables, with differences by segment tested for statistical significance. Seven segments were identified, including distinctly different groups of persons who tended toward a high level of compliance and several that were relatively low in compliance. The segments were characterized by distinctive patterns of demographics, attitudes, behaviours, trust in information sources, and communication channels preferred. Segments were further validated by comparing the segmentation variable versus a set of demographic variables as predictors of reported protective behaviours in the past two weeks and of vaccine refusal; the demographics together had about one-quarter the effect size of the single seven-level segment variable. With respect to managerial implications, different communication strategies for each segment are suggested for each segment, illustrating advantages of rich segmentation descriptions for understanding public health communication audiences. Strengths and weaknesses of the methods used are discussed, to help guide future efforts.

A prospective study of the effect of COVID-19 on psychiatric symptoms and sleep problems from infection to 9-month follow-up

Diverse psychological consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have been reported for 6 months after infection. We conducted a prospective study to evaluate the psychological impact of COVID-19 infection in newly diagnosed cases that were followed up at 1, 6, and 9 months after infection. 137 people were recruited and divided into four groups based on the COVID-19 Treatment Guidelines. They were evaluated using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI), Post-traumatic stress disorder Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), and Symptom Checklist 90 (SCL-90). We found that 9 months after infection, patients continued to report poor sleep (74.5%), PTSD (78.3%), somatization (17%), anxiety (17%), aggression (5.7%), phobic anxiety (4.7%), psychoticism (1.9%), paranoid (3.8%), and obsessive-compulsive (9.4%) symptoms, as well as depression and interpersonal sensitivity. The most significant risk factors for psychiatric complications were older age, level of education, smoking, hospitalization duration, hypertension, and critical severity. The negative mental health effects of COVID-19 persist after hospital discharge, and many patients continue to experience moderate-to-severe issues that may endure for 9 months. Notably, there was a progressive improvement in these symptoms over that time.

COVID-19 vaccine boosters for young adults: a risk benefit assessment and ethical analysis of mandate policies at universities

In 2022, students at North American universities with third-dose COVID-19 vaccine mandates risk disenrolment if unvaccinated. To assess the appropriateness of booster mandates in this age group, we combine empirical risk-benefit assessment and ethical analysis. To prevent one COVID-19 hospitalisation over a 6-month period, we estimate that 31 207-42 836 young adults aged 18-29 years must receive a third mRNA vaccine. Booster mandates in young adults are expected to cause a net harm: per COVID-19 hospitalisation prevented, we anticipate at least 18.5 serious adverse events from mRNA vaccines, including 1.5-4.6 booster-associated myopericarditis cases in males (typically requiring hospitalisation). We also anticipate 1430-4626 cases of grade ≥3 reactogenicity interfering with daily activities (although typically not requiring hospitalisation). University booster mandates are unethical because they: (1) are not based on an updated (Omicron era) stratified risk-benefit assessment for this age group; (2) may result in a net harm to healthy young adults; (3) are not proportionate: expected harms are not outweighed by public health benefits given modest and transient effectiveness of vaccines against transmission; (4) violate the reciprocity principle because serious vaccine-related harms are not reliably compensated due to gaps in vaccine injury schemes; and (5) may result in wider social harms. We consider counterarguments including efforts to increase safety on campus but find these are fraught with limitations and little scientific support. Finally, we discuss the policy relevance of our analysis for primary series COVID-19 vaccine mandates.

COVID-19 Mortality and Severity in Cancer Patients and Cancer Survivors

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate mortality, severity, and risk of hospitalization in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with cancer.

METHODS

Data of all patients aged 40-79 years from the Korean Disease Control and Prevention Agency-COVID19-National Health Insurance Service who were diagnosed with COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and March 31, 2022, in Korea were included. After 1:1 propensity score matching, 397,050 patients with cancer and 397,050 patients without cancer were enrolled in the main analysis. A cancer survivor was defined as a patient who had survived 5 or more years since the diagnosis of cancer. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to compare the risk of COVID-19 according to the diagnosis of cancer and time since diagnosis.

RESULTS

Cancer, old age, male sex, incomplete vaccination against COVID-19, lower economic status, and a higher Charlson comorbidity index were associated with an increased risk of hospitalization, hospitalization with severe state, and death. Compared to patients without cancer, the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for hospitalization, hospitalization with severe state, and death in patients with cancer were 1.09 (1.08-1.11), 1.17 (1.11-1.24), and 1.94 (1.84-2.05), respectively. Compared to patients without cancer, the ORs (95% CIs) for hospitalization in cancer survivors, patients with cancer diagnosed 2-5 years, 1-2 years, and < 1 year ago were 0.96 (0.94-0.98), 1.10 (1.07-1.13), 1.30 (1.25-1.34), and 1.82 (1.77-1.87), respectively; the ORs (95% CIs) for hospitalization for severe disease among these patients were 0.90 (0.85-0.97), 1.22 (1.12-1.32), 1.60 (1.43-1.79), and 2.29 (2.09-2.50), respectively.

CONCLUSION

The risks of death, severe state, and hospitalization due to COVID-19 were higher in patients with cancer than in those without; the more recent the diagnosis, the higher the aforementioned risks. Cancer survivors had a lower risk of hospitalization and hospitalization with severe disease than those without cancer.

Accelarated immune ageing is associated with COVID-19 disease severity

BACKGROUND

The striking increase in COVID-19 severity in older adults provides a clear example of immunesenescence, the age-related remodelling of the immune system. To better characterise the association between convalescent immunesenescence and acute disease severity, we determined the immune phenotype of COVID-19 survivors and non-infected controls.

RESULTS

We performed detailed immune phenotyping of peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from 103 COVID-19 survivors 3-5 months post recovery who were classified as having had severe (n = 56; age 53.12 ± 11.30 years), moderate (n = 32; age 52.28 ± 11.43 years) or mild (n = 15; age 49.67 ± 7.30 years) disease and compared with age and sex-matched healthy adults (n = 59; age 50.49 ± 10.68 years). We assessed a broad range of immune cell phenotypes to generate a composite score, IMM-AGE, to determine the degree of immune senescence. We found increased immunesenescence features in severe COVID-19 survivors compared to controls including: a reduced frequency and number of naïve CD4 and CD8 T cells (p < 0.0001); increased frequency of EMRA CD4 (p < 0.003) and CD8 T cells (p < 0.001); a higher frequency (p < 0.0001) and absolute numbers (p < 0.001) of CD28-ve CD57+ve senescent CD4 and CD8 T cells; higher frequency (p < 0.003) and absolute numbers (p < 0.02) of PD-1 expressing exhausted CD8 T cells; a two-fold increase in Th17 polarisation (p < 0.0001); higher frequency of memory B cells (p < 0.001) and increased frequency (p < 0.0001) and numbers (p < 0.001) of CD57+ve senescent NK cells. As a result, the IMM-AGE score was significantly higher in severe COVID-19 survivors than in controls (p < 0.001). Few differences were seen for those with moderate disease and none for mild disease. Regression analysis revealed the only pre-existing variable influencing the IMM-AGE score was South Asian ethnicity ([Formula: see text] = 0.174, p = 0.043), with a major influence being disease severity ([Formula: see text] = 0.188, p = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses reveal a state of enhanced immune ageing in survivors of severe COVID-19 and suggest this could be related to SARS-Cov-2 infection. Our data support the rationale for trials of anti-immune ageing interventions for improving clinical outcomes in these patients with severe disease.

Outcomes of patients with COVID-19 and coronary artery disease and heart failure: findings from the Philippine CORONA study

BACKGROUND

Patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and coronary artery disease (CAD) or heart failure (HF) are more likely to have poor outcomes. This study aimed to determine the characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 patients with CAD/HF across various institutions in the Philippines.

METHODS

We utilized the data from the Philippine CORONA Study and compared the outcomes of admitted COVID-19 patients with CAD/HF versus those without. The Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U test, binary logistic regression and multivariate regression analysis were utilized. Odds ratios (OR) and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated.

RESULTS

We included a total of 512 patients with COVID-19 had CAD/HF and 10,369 were without. CAD/HF was significantly associated with COVID severity, all-cause mortality, death from cardiac causes, respiratory failure, and prolonged hospitalization. After adjusting for confounders, the presence of CAD/HF was still associated with death from a cardiac cause (OR 2.22, 95% CI 1.49-3.3, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of CAD or HF was significantly associated with severity of COVID disease, all-cause mortality, death from cardiac causes, respiratory failure, and prolonged hospitalization.

The impact of menopause and serum DHEA-S level on the severity of Covid-19

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to demonstrate the difference between premenopausal and postmenopausal women in respect of the clinical course and outcomes of Covid-19. We investigated the epidemiological and hormonal factors which influence the severity of the disease.

STUDY DESIGN

This observational cross-sectional study included the female patients admitted to a Covid-19 outpatient clinic between July 2020 and June 2021 and diagnosed with a positive polymerase chain reaction test. Blood samples were obtained to determine the serum levels of follicle stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone, estradiol, total testosterone and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Our primary outcome was the poor clinical course of the disease in postmenopausal women. Our secondary outcome was the contribution of hormonal status to the clinical course of the disease.

RESULTS

Our cohort consisted of 253 female patients (85 with mild, 125 with moderate and 43 with severe disease; 101 at the premenopausal and 152 at the postmenopausal stage). There was a statistically significant difference between the patients in different severity groups regarding clinical data and serum levels of luteinizing hormone, follicle stimulating hormone, estradiol and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate. Being one year younger decreased the odds of having severe Covid-19 0.338-fold relative to the group with mild disease. A decrease in the serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate level was associated with a 2.604-fold increase in the odds of having severe Covid-19 relative to the group with mild disease. Being postmenopausal increased the odds of having severe disease compared with mild disease by 2.687-fold.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of Covid-19 is more favorable in premenopausal women compared with postmenopausal women. Age, postmenopausal status and serum levels of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate are important predictors of the severity of Covid-19 for women.

Baseline and early changes in laboratory parameters predict disease severity and fatal outcomes in COVID-19 patients

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become the worst catastrophe of the twenty-first century and has led to the death of more than 6.9 million individuals across the globe. Despite the growing knowledge of the clinicopathological features of COVID-19, the correlation between baseline and early changes in the laboratory parameters and the clinical outcomes of patients is not entirely understood.

Methods

Here, we conducted a time series cross-sectional study aimed at assessing different measured parameters and socio-demographic factors that are associated with disease severity and the outcome of the disease in 268 PCR-confirmed COVID-19 Patients.

Results

We found COVID-19 patients who died had a median age of 61 years (IQR, 50 y - 70 y), which is significantly higher (p < 0.05) compared to those who survived and had a median age of 54 years (IQR, 42y - 65y). The median RBC count of COVID-19 survivors was 4.9 × 106/μL (IQR 4.3 × 106/μL - 5.2 × 106/μL) which is higher (p < 0.05) compared to those who died 4.4 × 106/μL (3.82 × 106/μL - 5.02 × 106/μL). Similarly, COVID-19 survivors had significantly (p < 0.05) higher lymphocyte and monocyte percentages compared to those who died. One important result we found was that COVID-19 patients who presented with severe/critical cases at the time of first admission but managed to survive had a lower percentage of neutrophil, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, higher lymphocyte and monocyte percentages, and RBC count compared to those who died.

Conclusion

To conclude here, we showed that simple laboratory parameters can be used to predict severity and outcome in COVID-19 patients. As these parameters are simple, inexpensive, and radially available in most resource-limited countries, they can be extrapolated to future viral epidemics or pandemics to allocate resources to particular patients.

Synthetic Health Data Can Augment Community Research Efforts to Better Inform the Public During Emerging Pandemics

The COVID-19 pandemic had disproportionate effects on the Veteran population due to the increased prevalence of medical and environmental risk factors. Synthetic electronic health record (EHR) data can help meet the acute need for Veteran population-specific predictive modeling efforts by avoiding the strict barriers to access, currently present within Veteran Health Administration (VHA) datasets. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the VHA launched the precisionFDA COVID-19 Risk Factor Modeling Challenge to develop COVID-19 diagnostic and prognostic models; identify Veteran population-specific risk factors; and test the usefulness of synthetic data as a substitute for real data. The use of synthetic data boosted challenge participation by providing a dataset that was accessible to all competitors. Models trained on synthetic data showed similar but systematically inflated model performance metrics to those trained on real data. The important risk factors identified in the synthetic data largely overlapped with those identified from the real data, and both sets of risk factors were validated in the literature. Tradeoffs exist between synthetic data generation approaches based on whether a real EHR dataset is required as input. Synthetic data generated directly from real EHR input will more closely align with the characteristics of the relevant cohort. This work shows that synthetic EHR data will have practical value to the Veterans' health research community for the foreseeable future.

Preparation for the next pandemic: challenges in strengthening surveillance

The devastating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic indicates that early detection of candidates with pandemic potential is vital. However, comprehensive metagenomic sequencing of the total microbiome is not practical due to the astronomical and rapidly evolving numbers and species of micro-organisms. Analysis of previous pandemics suggests that an increase in human-animal interactions, changes in animal and arthropod distribution due to climate change and deforestation, continuous mutations and interspecies jumping of RNA viruses, and frequent travels are important factors driving pandemic emergence. Besides measures mitigating these factors, surveillance at human-animal interfaces targeting animals with unusual tolerance to viral infections, sick heathcare workers, and workers at high biosafety level laboratories is crucial. Surveillance of sick travellers is important when alerted by an early warning system of a suspected outbreak due to unknown agents. These samples should be screened by multiplex nucleic acid amplification and subsequent unbiased next-generation sequencing. Novel viruses should be isolated in routine cell cultures, complemented by organoid cultures, and then tested in animal models for interspecies transmission potential. Potential agents are candidates for designing rapid diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines. For early detection of outbreaks, there are advantages in using event-based surveillance and artificial intelligence (AI), but high background noise and censorship are possible drawbacks. These systems are likely useful if they channel reliable information from frontline healthcare or veterinary workers and large international gatherings. Furthermore, sufficient regulation of high biosafety level laboratories, and stockpiling of broad spectrum antiviral drugs, vaccines, and personal protective equipment are indicated for pandemic preparedness.

Correlates and trajectories of loneliness among community-dwelling older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: A Canadian longitudinal study

The COVID-19 pandemic provided a unique opportunity to examine the contributions of social interaction and other non-social factors to loneliness among older adults in the context of confinement measures constraining opportunities for in-person social interactions. This study aims to identify groups of individuals with heterogeneous trajectories of loneliness during the COVID-19 pandemic and to explore the sociodemographic, health, psychological and social interaction-related factors associated with these trajectories. In this 12-month longitudinal study, 614 community-dwelling individuals aged 60+ years completed telephone-based interviews on four occasions between May 2020 and May 2021. Loneliness was evaluated using the three-item version of the UCLA Loneliness Scale. Multilevel modelling assessed average changes in loneliness over time. Group-based trajectory modelling was performed to identify distinct trajectories of loneliness over time. Multinomial logistic regressions were conducted to explore the predictors of these trajectories. On average, there was a curvilinear change in loneliness that tracked the stringency of the COVID-19-related confinement measures. In this convenience sample, three heterogeneous trajectories were identified: a stable-low (17.2%), a fluctuating-moderate (48.8%) and a sustained-elevated (34.0%) trajectory. Participants in the sustained-elevated loneliness trajectory were more likely to live alone and experience elevated psychological distress and greater COVID-19 perceived health threat compared to those in the stable-low trajectory. Participants in the fluctuating-moderate loneliness group were more likely to have multimorbidity, experience greater psychological distress, and have less frequent in-person interactions than the stable-low loneliness group. Assessing the combination of sociodemographic, health, psychological and social factors may help identify individuals at higher risk for chronic loneliness.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

Importance

COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear.

Objective

To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups).

Design

The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario.

Setting

The entire United States.

Participants

None.

Exposure

Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster.

Main outcomes and measures

Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period.

Results

From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths.

Conclusion and Relevance

COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Assessment of the ABC2-SPH risk score to predict invasive mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 patients and comparison to other scores

Background

Predicting the need for invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) is important for the allocation of human and technological resources, improvement of surveillance, and use of effective therapeutic measures. This study aimed (i) to assess whether the ABC2-SPH score is able to predict the receipt of IMV in COVID-19 patients; (ii) to compare its performance with other existing scores; (iii) to perform score recalibration, and to assess whether recalibration improved prediction.

Methods

Retrospective observational cohort, which included adult laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted in 32 hospitals, from 14 Brazilian cities. This study was conducted in two stages: (i) for the assessment of the ABC2-SPH score and comparison with other available scores, patients hospitalized from July 31, 2020, to March 31, 2022, were included; (ii) for ABC2-SPH score recalibration and also comparison with other existing scores, patients admitted from January 1, 2021, to March 31, 2022, were enrolled. For both steps, the area under the receiving operator characteristic score (AUROC) was calculated for all scores, while a calibration plot was assessed only for the ABC2-SPH score. Comparisons between ABC2-SPH and the other scores followed the Delong Test recommendations. Logistic recalibration methods were used to improve results and adapt to the studied sample.

Results

Overall, 9,350 patients were included in the study, the median age was 58.5 (IQR 47.0-69.0) years old, and 45.4% were women. Of those, 33.5% were admitted to the ICU, 25.2% received IMV, and 17.8% died. The ABC2-SPH score showed a significantly greater discriminatory capacity, than the CURB-65, STSS, and SUM scores, with potentialized results when we consider only patients younger than 80 years old (AUROC 0.714 [95% CI 0.698-0.731]). Thus, after the ABC2-SPH score recalibration, we observed improvements in calibration (slope = 1.135, intercept = 0.242) and overall performance (Brier score = 0.127).

Conclusion

The ABC2-SPHr risk score demonstrated a good performance to predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 hospitalized patients under 80 years of age.

CRP Monitoring in Early Hospitalization: Implications for Predicting Outcomes in Patients with COVID-19

Elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels have been associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. While baseline CRP levels are higher in women, obese individuals, and older adults, the relationship between CRP, sex, body mass index (BMI), age, and COVID-19 outcomes remains unknown. To investigate, we performed a retrospective analysis on 824 adult patients with COVID-19 admitted during the first pandemic wave, of whom 183 (22.2%) died. The maximum CRP value over the first five hospitalization days better predicted hospitalization outcome than the CRP level at admission, as a maximum CRP > 10 mg/dL independently quadrupled the risk of death (p < 0.001). Males (p < 0.001) and patients with a higher BMI (p = 0.001) had higher maximum CRP values, yet CRP levels did not impact their hospitalization outcome. While CRP levels did not statistically mediate any relation between sex, age, or BMI with clinical outcomes, age impacted the association between BMI and the risk of death. For patients 60 or over, a BMI < 25 kg/m2 increased the risk of death (p = 0.017), whereas the reverse was true for patients <60 (p = 0.030). Further impact of age on the association between BMI, CRP, and the risk of death could not be assessed due to a lack of statistical power but should be further investigated.

Increased intrapulmonary shunt and alveolar dead space post-COVID-19

Increased intrapulmonary shunt (QS/Qt) and alveolar dead space (VD/VT) are present in early recovery from 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19). We hypothesized patients recovering from severe critical acute illness (NIH category 3-5) would have greater and longer lasting increased QS/Qt and VD/VT than patients with mild-moderate acute illness (NIH 1-2). Fifty-nine unvaccinated patients (33 males, aged 52 [38-61] yr, body mass index [BMI] 28.8 [25.3-33.6] kg/m2; median [IQR], 44 previous mild-moderate COVID-19, and 15 severe-critical disease) were studied 15-403 days postacute severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection. Breathing ambient air, steady-state mean alveolar Pco2, and Po2 were recorded simultaneously with arterial Po2/Pco2 yielding aAPco2, AaPo2, and from these, QS/Qt%, VD/VT%, and relative alveolar ventilation (40 mmHg/[Formula: see text], VArel) were calculated. Median [Formula: see text] was 39.4 [35.6-41.1] mmHg, [Formula: see text] 92.3 [87.1-98.2] mmHg; [Formula: see text] 32.8 [28.6-35.3] mmHg, [Formula: see text] 112.9 [109.4-117.0] mmHg, AaPo2 18.8 [12.6-26.8] mmHg, aAPco2 5.9 [4.3-8.0] mmHg, QS/Qt 4.3 [2.1-5.9] %, and VD/VT16.6 [12.6-24.4]%. Only 14% of patients had normal QS/Qt and VD/VT; 1% increased QS/Qt but normal VD/VT; 49% normal QS/Qt and elevated VD/VT; 36% both abnormal QS/Qt and VD/VT. Previous severe critical COVID-19 predicted increased QS/Qt (2.69 [0.82-4.57]% per category severity [95% CI], P < 0.01), but not VD/VT. Increasing age weakly predicted increased VD/VT (1.6 [0.1-3.2]% per decade, P < 0.04). Time since infection, BMI, and comorbidities were not predictors (all P > 0.11). VArel was increased in most patients. In our population, recovery from COVID-19 was associated with increased QS/Qt in 37% of patients, increased VD/VT in 86%, and increased alveolar ventilation up to ∼13 mo postinfection. NIH severity predicted QS/Qt but not elevated VD/VT. Increased VD/VT suggests pulmonary microvascular pathology persists post-COVID-19 in most patients.NEW & NOTEWORTHY Using novel methodology quantifying intrapulmonary shunt and alveolar dead space in COVID-19 patients up to 403 days after acute illness, 37% had increased intrapulmonary shunt and 86% had elevated alveolar dead space likely due to independent pathology. Elevated shunt was partially related to severe acute illness, and increased alveolar dead space was weakly related to increasing age. Ventilation was increased in the majority of patients regardless of previous disease severity. These results demonstrate persisting gas exchange abnormalities after recovery.

Assessing the real-world effectiveness of five SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in a cohort of Mexican pensioners: a nationwide nested test-negative design study

Background

Despite the extensive distribution of COVID-19 vaccines across Latin America, research on their real-world performance remains limited. We aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of five vaccines (BNT162b2, AZD1222, CoronaVac, Gam-COVID-Vac, and Ad5-nCoV) in a cohort of 2,559,792 pensioners covered by the Mexican Institute of Social Security.

Methods

We conducted a nested test-negative design study on 28,271 individuals tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection between April and November 2021, accounting for 29,226 separate episodes. We used mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate the vaccine effectiveness (VE) in fully vaccinated individuals for symptomatic infection, hospitalization, severe disease, and death.

Findings

The median age of the study population was 70 years (interquartile range 65-76) and 76.4% (21,598/28,271) were male. VE rates were 56.3%, 75.3%, 79.7%, and 79.8% against symptomatic infection (95% confidence interval [CI]: 53.5-59.0), hospitalization (95% CI: 73.4-77.0), severe disease (95% CI: 78.0-81.3), and death (95% CI: 78.1-81.4), respectively. When evaluating vaccines individually, all showed moderate to high VE, with the best being BNT162b2 (symptomatic infection, 69.8%, 95% CI: 67.3-72.0; hospitalization, 84.1%, 95% CI: 82.5-85.6; severe disease, 88.2%, 95% CI: 86.7-89.5; and death, 88.3%, 95% CI: 86.9-89.6) and Gam-COVID-Vac (symptomatic infection, 70.0%, 95% CI: 64.8-74.4; hospitalization, 86.8%, 95% CI: 83.7-89.3; severe disease, 91.9%, 95% CI: 89.4-93.9; and death, 92.0%, 95% CI: 89.5-93.9).

Interpretation

All five SARS-CoV-2 vaccines available for this population showed moderate to high levels of protection against COVID-19 and its progression to severe outcomes.

Funding

Fundación IMSS, México.

Self-isolation of an Italian long-term care facility during COVID-19 pandemic: A comparison study on care-related infectious episodes

The aim of this retrospective cohort study is to understand if and how much the preventive self-isolation approach might have been a valid model to avoid care-related infection, not only from COVID-19 but also from other non-viral infectious diseases. From March to May 2020, the healthcare and management staff of the Villa Santa Maria long-term care facilities, located in the village of Montenero di Bisaccia (Campobasso, Molise, Italy), decided to carry out a preventive self-isolation plan to safeguard the residents from SARS-CoV-2. The impact on other infectious diseases was evaluated by analyzing the antibiotic therapies prescription trend among the inpatients. Our data showed that although self-isolation protected residents and caregivers from SARS-CoV-2, it can also be associated with mobility reduction, leading to an increase in bedridden pathologies, namely, pressure ulcers and pressure sores. The simultaneous isolation of residents and caregivers in the same location significantly reduced any outside influence as a cause of possible infections.

Potential determinants of antibody responses after vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 in older persons: the Doetinchem Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Immune responses to vaccination vary widely between individuals. The aim of this study was to identify health-related variables potentially underlying the antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in older persons. We recruited participants in the long-running Doetinchem Cohort Study (DCS) who underwent vaccination as part of the national COVID-19 program, and measured antibody concentrations to SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein (S1) and Nucleoprotein (N) at baseline (T0), and a month after both the first vaccination (T1), and the second vaccination (T2). Associations between the antibody concentrations and demographic variables, including age, sex, socio-economic status (SES), comorbidities (cardiovascular diseases and immune mediated diseases), various health parameters (cardiometabolic markers, inflammation markers, kidney- and lung function) and a composite measure of frailty ('frailty index', ranging from 0 to 1) were tested using multivariate models.

RESULTS

We included 1457 persons aged 50 to 92 years old. Of these persons 1257 were infection naïve after their primary vaccination series. The majority (N = 954) of these individuals were vaccinated with two doses of BNT162b2 (Pfizer) and their data were used for further analysis. A higher frailty index was associated with lower anti-S1 antibody responses at T1 and T2 for both men (RT1 = -0.095, PT1 = 0.05; RT2 = -0.11, PT2 = 0.02) and women (RT1 = -0.24, PT1 < 0.01; RT2 = -0.15, PT2 < 0.01). After correcting for age and sex the frailty index was also associated with the relative increase in anti-S1 IgG concentrations between the two vaccinations (β = 1.6, P < 0.01). Within the construct of frailty, history of a cardiac catheterization, diabetes, gastrointestinal disease, a cognitive speed in the lowest decile of the population distribution, and impaired lung function were associated with lower antibody responses after both vaccinations.

CONCLUSIONS

Components of frailty play a key role in the primary vaccination response to the BNT162b2 vaccine within an ageing population. Older persons with various comorbidities have a lowered immune response after their first vaccination, and while frail and sick older persons see a stronger increase after their second vaccination compared to healthy people, they still have a lower antibody response after their second vaccination.

Association between pregnancy and severe COVID-19 symptoms in Qatar: A cross-sectional study

There is inconclusive evidence whether pregnancy exacerbates COVID-19 symptoms or not, and scarce data from the Middle East and North Africa region. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between pregnancy and COVID-19 symptoms in Qatar. This cross-sectional study was carried out using data of all women with confirmed COVID-19, comparing women of child-bearing age (18-49 years). Data of all COVID-19 cases were collected by the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) in Qatar, between March and September 2020. Symptoms were compared by pregnancy status and classified into moderate and severe. Multivariable logistic and Poisson regression was carried out to investigate the association between pregnancy and severity of COVID-19 symptoms. During the study period, 105 744 individuals were diagnosed with COVID-19, of which 16 908 were women of childbearing age. From that sample, 799 women were pregnant (mean age 29.9 years (SD 5.2)) and 16109 women were not pregnant (mean age 33.1 years (SD 7.8)). After multivariable logistic regression, pregnancy was associated with 1.4-fold higher odds of reporting any symptoms of COVID-19 (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.18-1.68), and 1.3-fold higher odds of reporting shortness of breath (OR 1.29, 95% CI 1.02-1.63). In a multivariable Poisson regression, pregnancy was also associated with a higher count of symptoms (IRR 1.03, 95%CI 0.98-1.08), although with weak evidence against the null hypothesis. Our findings suggest that, in this setting, pregnant women are more likely to have symptomatic COVID-19, and shortness of breath, compared to women with no pregnancy.

[Opportunities to improve the prognosis of the course of COVID-19 for at-risk patients]

AIM

To evaluate the efficacy and safety of a combination of virus neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in the treatment of patients with confirmed COVID-19 and risk factors for disease progression and severe disease course.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study was carried out in the Sokolniki temporary hospital of the Inozemtsev City Clinical Hospital. A retrospective comparative case-control study included 400 patients hospitalized for confirmed COVID-19 infection from November 01, 2022 to March 31, 2023. Patients were divided into two groups depending on the treatment given: the first control group (n=200) and the second group (n=200), where patients received a single intramuscular injection of tixagevimab + cilgavimab within the first days of hospitalization.

RESULTS

When analyzing the concomitant pathology, C-reactive protein level and CT scans at the time of hospitalization, it was revealed that patients in the tixagevimab + cilgavimab treatment group were more severe compared to the control group. On the 2nd day of hospitalization, there was a decrease in the level of C-reactive protein in the control group by 36.2%, in the group receiving tixagevimab + cilgavimab - by 45.2%; p<0.05. Standard treatment was supplemented with antibacterial therapy in 47 (23.5%) patients of the first group and in 32 (16.0%) patients of the second group, which was due to the accession of bacterial infection; p<0.05. Significant differences were found in the duration of hospitalization, which averaged 8.0±0.21 bed-days in group 1 and 6.4±0.13 (p<0.05) bed-days in group 2. No adverse reactions to intramuscular injection of tixagevimab + cilgavimab were detected.

CONCLUSION

The use of a combination of neutralizing monoclonal antibodies in patients with COVID-19 reduce the average bed-day in hospitalization of patients with comorbid pathology and/or immunodeficiencies and high risk of progression of infection.

Risk factors for clinical stages of COVID-19 amongst employees of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) worldwide over a period of 12 months

BACKGROUND

Essential workers carry a higher risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 mortality than individuals working in non-essential activities. Scientific studies on COVID-19 risk factors and clinical courses for humanitarian aid workers (HAW) specifically are lacking. The nature of their work brings HAW in proximity to various populations, therefore potentially exposing them to the virus. The objective of this study is to assess severity degrees of COVID-19 in relation to multiple risk factors in a cohort of HAW.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of data collected by the Staff Health Unit of the International Committee of the Red Cross, over 12 months (February 2021 - January 2022). Prevalence of demographic and health risk factors and outcome events were calculated. Factors associated with disease severity were explored in univariable and multivariable logistic regression models. Resulting OR were reported with 95%CI and p-values from Wald Test. P-values < 0.05 were considered significant.

RESULTS

We included 2377 patients. The mean age was 39.5y.o. Two thirds of the patients were males, and 3/4 were national staff. Most cases (3/4) were reported by three regions (Africa, Asia and Middle East). Over 95% of patients were either asymptomatic or presented mild symptoms, 9 died (CFR 0.38%). Fifty-two patients were hospitalised and 7 needed a medical evacuation outside the country of assignment. A minority (14.76%) of patients had at least one risk factor for severe disease; the most recorded one was high blood pressure (4.6%). Over 55% of cases occurred during the predominance of Delta Variant of Concern. All pre-existing risk factors were significantly associated with a moderate or higher severity of the disease (except pregnancy and immunosuppression).

CONCLUSIONS

We found strong epidemiological evidence of associations between comorbidities, old age, and the severity of COVID-19. Increased occupational risks of moderate to severe forms of COVID-19 do not only depend on workplace safety but also on social contacts and context.

COVID-associated arthritis after severe and non-severe COVID-19: A systematic review

AIM

Since the coronavirus outbreak became a global health emergency in 2020, various immune-based effects, such as inflammatory arthritis (IA), have been recorded. This study aimed to determine the role of COVID-19 severity on post-COVID arthritis.

METHODS

We systematically reviewed 95 patients who developed arthritis after severe and non-severe COVID-19 infection by searching the databases, including PubMed, SCOPUS, and EMBASE. We used the term "COVID-associated arthritis" because there was no definite diagnostic method for classifying arthritides after COVID-19 infection, and the diagnosed arthritis types were based on the authors' viewpoints.

RESULTS

After evaluating the data between the two severe and non-severe COVID-19-infected groups of patients, the results showed that the COVID-19 severity may affect the pattern of joint involvement in IA. In both groups, combination therapy, including oral nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs with different types of corticosteroids, was the most common treatment. In addition, the mean age and comorbidities rate was higher in the severe COVID-19 group. Even though the patients in the severe COVID-19 group developed more serious COVID-19 symptoms, they experienced milder arthritis with better outcomes and more delayed onsets that required less aggressive therapy.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that there may be an inverse relationship between COVID-19 severity and arthritis severity, possibly due to weaker immunity conditions following immunosuppressant treatments in patients with severe COVID-19.

Mortality in older patients admitted to an ICU for COVID-19: A systematic review

PURPOSE

The objective was to conduct a systematic review of mortality and factors independently associated with mortality of older patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) for COVID-19.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Data sources were MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and references of included studies. Two reviewers independently selected studies evaluating mortality of older patients (≥ 70 years) admitted to an ICU for COVID-19. They extracted general characteristics, mortality rate, and factors independently associated with mortality. The methodological quality of each study was evaluated by using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme checklist.

RESULTS

We selected 36 studies (11,989 patients). Many of the studies were conducted in Europe (42%) and many were retrospective (61%) and multicenter (61%). ICU mortality ranged from 8% to 90%, 1-month mortality from 33% to 90% and 3-month mortality, reported in five studies, from 46% to 60%. Frailty, assessed by the Clinical Frailty Score (CFS), was significantly associated with 1-month and 3-month mortality respectively in two studies (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.2 [2.56-4.13] and HR: 2.83 [95% CI: 1.96-4.08]).

CONCLUSION

In this systematic review of older patients admitted to an ICU with COVID-19, we documented high heterogeneity of mortality rates.

Comparison of different prognostic scores in estimating short- and long-term mortality in COVID-19 patients above 60 years old in a university hospital in Belgium

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Multiple scoring systems were used for risk stratification in COVID-19 patients. The objective was to determine among 6 scores which performed the best in predicting short-and long-term mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients ≥ 60 years.

METHODS

An observational, retrospective cohort study conducted between 21/10/2020 and 20/01/2021. 6 scores were calculated (Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), 4C Mortality Score (4CMS), NEWS score (NEWS), quick-SOFA score (qSOFA), and Quick COVID-19 Severity Index (qCSI)). We included unvaccinated hospitalized patients with COVID-19 ≥ 60 years old in Brugmann hospital, detected by PCR and/or suggestive CT thorax images. Old and nosocomial infections, and patients admitted immediately at the intensive care unit were excluded.

RESULTS

199 patients were included, mean age was 76.2 years (60-99). 47.2% were female. 56 patients (28%) died within 1 year after the first day of hospitalization. The 4CMS predicted the best intrahospital, 30 days and 6 months mortality, with area under the ROC curve (AUROC) 0.695 (0.58-0.81), 0.76 (0.65-0.86) and 0.72 (0.63-0.82) respectively. The CCI came right after with respectively AUROC of 0.69 (0.59-0.79), 0.74 (0.65-0.83) and 0.71 (0.64-0.8). To predict mortality at 12 months after hospitalization, the CCI had the highest AUROC with 0.77 (0.69-0.85), before the 4CMS with 0.69 (0.60-0.79).

DISCUSSION

Among 6 scores, the 4CMS was the best to predict intrahospital, 30-day and 6-month mortality. To predict mortality at 12 months, CCI had the best performance before 4CMS. This reflects the importance of considering comorbidities for short- and long-term mortality after COVID 19.

REGISTRATION

This study was approved by the ethical committee of Brugmann University Hospital (reference CE 2020/228).