Assessment of the quality and accuracy of information contained within the websites of marketed orthodontic products: a cross-sectional investigation

OBJECTIVES

To assess the quality and accuracy of information contained within the websites of providers of marketed orthodontic products.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Twenty-one websites of orthodontic appliance and adjunct (product) providers were identified. The website content was assessed via two validated quality-of-information instruments (DISCERN and the Journal of the American Medical Association [JAMA] benchmarks) and an accuracy-of-information instrument. Website content was qualitatively analyzed for themes and subthemes.

RESULTS

More than half (n = 11; 52.3%) of the assessed websites contained clinician testimonials. The mean (SD) DISCERN score was 33.14 (5.44). No website recorded the minimum of three JAMA benchmarks required to indicate reliability. The most common content themes related to quality-of-life impact and treatment duration. Just 8% of the statements within the websites were objectively true. The Pearson correlation coefficient indicated that the DISCERN scores were correlated with the accuracy-of-information scores (r = .83; P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

The quality and accuracy of information contained within the websites of the providers of marketed orthodontic products was poor. The combined use of DISCERN and the accuracy-of-information instrument may help overcome the shortcomings of each. Clinicians should check the accuracy of information on orthodontic product provider websites before adding links to those websites on their own sites.

Assessing domain match and feasibility of candidate instruments matching with OMERACT endorsed domains to measure flare in knee and hip osteoarthritis

PURPOSE

To evaluate the domain match (truth) and feasibility of candidate instruments assessing flare in knee and hip osteoarthritis (OA) according to the identified domains.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

From a literature review (575 papers), instruments were selected and evaluated using the truth and feasibility elements of the OMERACT Filter 2.2. These were evaluated by 26 experts, including patients, in two Delphi survey rounds. The final selection was obtained by a vote.

RESULTS

44 instruments were identified. In Delphi Round 1, five instruments were selected. In Round 2, all instruments obtained at least 75 % in terms of content match with the endorsed domains and feasibility. In the final selection, the Flare-OA questionnaire obtained 100 % favorable votes.

CONCLUSION

Through consensus of the working group, the Flare-OA questionnaire was selected as the best candidate instrument to move into a full assessment of its measurement properties using the OMERACT Filter 2.2.

Weight Loss Induced by Antiobesity Medications and All-Cause Mortality Among Patients With Knee or Hip Osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE

The current guidelines recommend weight loss for patients with overweight or obesity and knee or hip osteoarthritis (OA); however, there is a paucity of data on the relation of weight loss to death among patients with OA. We aimed to examine the relation of the rate of weight loss induced by antiobesity medications over one year to all-cause mortality among patients with overweight or obesity and knee or hip OA.

METHODS

Using the IQVIA Medical Research Database, we identified people with overweight or obesity and knee or hip OA. We emulated analyses of a hypothetical target trial to assess the effect of slow-to-moderate (2%-10%) or fast (≥10%) weight loss induced by the initiation of antiobesity medications within one year on all-cause mortality and secondary outcomes over five years' follow-up.

RESULTS

Among 6,524 participants, the five-year all-cause mortality rates were 5.3%, 4.0%, and 5.4% for weight gain or stable, slow-to-moderate weight loss, and fast weight loss arms, respectively. Compared with the weight gain or stable arm, hazard ratios of all-cause mortality were 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.92) for the slow-to-moderate weight loss arm and 0.99 (95% CI 0.67-1.44) for the fast weight loss arm. We found dose-response protective effects of weight loss on incident hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and venous thromboembolism but a slightly higher risk of cardiovascular disease, albeit not statistically significant, in the fast rate of weight loss arm than in the weight gain or stable arm and no significant relations of weight loss to the risk of cancer.

CONCLUSION

In this population-based study, a slow-to-moderate, but not fast, rate of weight loss induced by antiobesity medications is associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality in people with overweight or obesity and knee or hip OA.

Deep learning to predict rapid progression of Alzheimer's disease from pooled clinical trials: A retrospective study

The rate of progression of Alzheimer's disease (AD) differs dramatically between patients. Identifying the most is critical because when their numbers differ between treated and control groups, it distorts the outcome, making it impossible to tell whether the treatment was beneficial. Much recent effort, then, has gone into identifying RPs. We pooled de-identified placebo-arm data of three randomized controlled trials (RCTs), EXPEDITION, EXPEDITION 2, and EXPEDITION 3, provided by Eli Lilly and Company. After processing, the data included 1603 mild-to-moderate AD patients with 80 weeks of longitudinal observations on neurocognitive health, brain volumes, and amyloid-beta (Aβ) levels. RPs were defined by changes in four neurocognitive/functional health measures. We built deep learning models using recurrent neural networks with attention mechanisms to predict RPs by week 80 based on varying observation periods from baseline (e.g., 12, 28 weeks). Feature importance scores for RP prediction were computed and temporal feature trajectories were compared between RPs and non-RPs. Our evaluation and analysis focused on models trained with 28 weeks of observation. The models achieved robust internal validation area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROCs) ranging from 0.80 (95% CI 0.79-0.82) to 0.82 (0.81-0.83), and the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRCs) from 0.34 (0.32-0.36) to 0.46 (0.44-0.49). External validation AUROCs ranged from 0.75 (0.70-0.81) to 0.83 (0.82-0.84) and AUPRCs from 0.27 (0.25-0.29) to 0.45 (0.43-0.48). Aβ plasma levels, regional brain volumetry, and neurocognitive health emerged as important factors for the model prediction. In addition, the trajectories were stratified between predicted RPs and non-RPs based on factors such as ventricular volumes and neurocognitive domains. Our findings will greatly aid clinical trialists in designing tests for new medications, representing a key step toward identifying effective new AD therapies.

Role of the Menstrual Cycle on Performance and Injury Risk: A Survey of Female Professional Rugby Players in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Female athletic performance and injury risk is impacted by variations in the menstrual cycle (MC), but the understanding of the impacts and mechanisms influenced by the menstrual cycle on exercise performance are not fully delineated.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Evaluate associations between the menstrual cycle, perceived performance, and injury risk of elite female rugby players using an online survey.

METHODS

An anonymous online questionnaire was completed by 150 elite female rugby players from two English rugby leagues, the Betfred Women's Super League (BWSL) and the Allianz Premier 15s (AP15s). The collected data were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

The Chi-square test was used to assess associations between age groups and contraception usage, weight change, and training and playing performance; none of the associations were statistically significant (all p values > 0.05). Thematic analysis of 11,660 words of data revealed four themes: (a) MC impact on training and competition, (b) education and period management plans, (c) openness of conversations and comfort taking time off, and (d) injury risk. The impacted performance areas were physical (83.7%), psychological (85.7%), and nutritional (80.3%); players experienced decreased appetite, nausea, fatigue, strength declines, heighted emotions, and worsened focus. In total, 87.8% of athletes perceived the MC to negatively impact performance, 85.7% of players desired to be educated further to prevent injuries, improve nutrition, and training adaptions, 51.7% of participants perceived risk of injury to be higher during MC, and 86.4% of participants did not feel comfortable taking time off due to the MC, worrying that selection would be affected and about opinions from others.

CONCLUSION

A clear negative impact on perceived performance and injury risk was reported by survey participants. The interaction of physical, psychological, and nutritional factors, and a lack of awareness and education emphasise the need for further comprehensive studies and interventions, with measures such as MC monitoring and profiling, education, and training adaptions to develop openness, knowledge, and understanding.

A DYNAMIC ADDITIVE AND MULTIPLICATIVE EFFECTS NETWORK MODEL WITH APPLICATION TO THE UNITED NATIONS VOTING BEHAVIORS

Motivated by a study of United Nations voting behaviors, we introduce a regression model for a series of networks that are correlated over time. Our model is a dynamic extension of the additive and multiplicative effects network model (AMEN) of Hoff (2021). In addition to incorporating a temporal structure, the model accommodates two types of missing data thus allows the size of the network to vary over time. We demonstrate via simulations the necessity of various components of the model. We apply the model to the United Nations General Assembly voting data from 1983 to 2014 (Voeten, 2013) to answer interesting research questions regarding international voting behaviors. In addition to finding important factors that could explain the voting behaviors, the model-estimated additive effects, multiplicative effects, and their movements reveal meaningful foreign policy positions and alliances of various countries.

Evaluation of orthodontic retention and retainer content on the Reddit social media website

BACKGROUND

Social media can provide insight into patient experiences with health care. The aim of this study was to evaluate the content regarding orthodontic retention and retainers on the social media website, Reddit.

METHODS

A systematic search for relevant content submitted over a 12-month period on the Reddit forum, r/braces, was conducted. Qualitative analysis of the initial posts for themes and subthemes was conducted by two investigators. Responding comments to the initial posts were assessed for supportiveness for each initial poster and alignment with the evidence-base. Quantitative assessment was via descriptive statistics.

RESULTS

A total of 271 initial posts and 984 comments satisfied the inclusion/exclusion criteria. All initial posts were by patients. Just 1.12% (n = 11) of the comments appeared to be provided by oral health professionals. Most initial posts were negative (50.18%; n = 136), and most comments were positive (70.42%; n = 693). Alignment with the evidence-base was high among the comments (67.89%; n = 668). Eight main themes were identified with concerns regarding the negative impact of retention and retainers on quality of life, compliance with retention protocols and relapse commonly expressed. Concern regarding fear of relapse when waiting for the initial or renewal of retainers was a novel finding. More negative sentiments about orthodontists were expressed than positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Reddit is a supportive and reliable environment for patients regarding orthodontic retention and retainers. The content evaluation suggested deficiencies in communication processes between clinicians and patients. Greater engagement of the orthodontic profession in the provision of supportive and evidence-based information on an individual patient basis and through appropriate information channels is required.

EgoActive: Integrated Wireless Wearable Sensors for Capturing Infant Egocentric Auditory-Visual Statistics and Autonomic Nervous System Function 'in the Wild'

There have been sustained efforts toward using naturalistic methods in developmental science to measure infant behaviors in the real world from an egocentric perspective because statistical regularities in the environment can shape and be shaped by the developing infant. However, there is no user-friendly and unobtrusive technology to densely and reliably sample life in the wild. To address this gap, we present the design, implementation and validation of the EgoActive platform, which addresses limitations of existing wearable technologies for developmental research. EgoActive records the active infants' egocentric perspective of the world via a miniature wireless head-mounted camera concurrently with their physiological responses to this input via a lightweight, wireless ECG/acceleration sensor. We also provide software tools to facilitate data analyses. Our validation studies showed that the cameras and body sensors performed well. Families also reported that the platform was comfortable, easy to use and operate, and did not interfere with daily activities. The synchronized multimodal data from the EgoActive platform can help tease apart complex processes that are important for child development to further our understanding of areas ranging from executive function to emotion processing and social learning.

The forgotten dimension of integrated care: barriers to implementing integrated clinical care in English NHS hospitals

Multimorbid patients who enter English NHS hospitals are frequently subject to care pathways designed to assess, diagnose and treat single medical conditions. Opportunities are thereby lost to offer patients more holistic, person-centred care. Hospital organisations elsewhere are known to use in-hospital, multi-specialty, integrated clinical care (ICC) to overcome this problem. This perspective piece aims to critically discuss barriers to implementing this form of ICC in the English NHS focusing on six key areas: information technologies, the primary-secondary care interface, internal hospital processes, finance, workload, professional roles and behaviours. Integrated care programmes currently underway are largely focused on macro (system) and meso (organisational) levels. A micro (clinical) level ICC, offering highly coordinated multispecialty expertise to multimorbid hospital patients could fill an important gap in the current care pathways.

Defining Heart Failure Based on Imaging the Heart and Beyond

Water and salt retention, in other words congestion, are fundamental to the pathophysiology of heart failure and are important therapeutic targets. Echocardiography is the key tool with which to assess cardiac structure and function in the initial diagnostic workup of patients with suspected heart failure and is essential for guiding treatment and stratifying risk. Ultrasound can also be used to identify and quantify congestion in the great veins, kidneys and lungs. More advanced imaging methods might further clarify the aetiology of heart failure and its consequences for the heart and periphery, thereby improving the efficiency and quality of care tailored with greater precision to individual patient need.

Loss of Grem1-articular cartilage progenitor cells causes osteoarthritis

Osteoarthritis (OA), which carries an enormous disease burden across the world, is characterised by irreversible degeneration of articular cartilage (AC), and subsequently bone. The cellular cause of OA is unknown. Here, using lineage tracing in mice, we show that the BMP-antagonist Gremlin 1 (Grem1) marks a novel chondrogenic progenitor (CP) cell population in the articular surface that generates joint cartilage and subchondral bone during development and adulthood. Notably, this CP population is depleted in injury-induced OA, and with age. OA is also induced by toxin-mediated ablation of Grem1 CP cells in young mice. Transcriptomic analysis and functional modelling in mice revealed articular surface Grem1-lineage cells are dependent on Foxo1; ablation of Foxo1 in Grem1-lineage cells led to early OA. This analysis identified FGFR3 signalling as a therapeutic target, and injection of its activator, FGF18, caused proliferation of Grem1-lineage CP cells, increased cartilage thickness, and reduced OA pathology. We propose that OA arises from the loss of CP cells at the articular surface secondary to an imbalance in progenitor cell homeostasis and present a new progenitor population as a locus for OA therapy.

Methodical control of the difficult pediatric airway: two case reports

BACKGROUND

Management of children who present with a history of impossible mask ventilation or difficult tracheal intubation is fraught with challenges. Despite this, the "airway stress test" of an inhalational induction is frequently employed risking airway obstruction, breath holding, apnea, and laryngospasm.

CASE PRESENTATIONS

We present two cases of children with anticipated difficult airway management. The first child (14-year-old African American boy) had severe mucopolysaccharidosis with a history of failed anesthetic induction and failed airway management. The second child (3-year-old African American girl) had progressive lymphatic infiltration of the tongue, resulting in severe macroglossia. We describe a technique that forgoes inhalational induction, incorporates recent pediatric airway guidelines, and provides a greater margin of safety. The technique encompasses the use of drugs that facilitate sedation for intravenous access, without respiratory depression or airway obstruction, titrated use of medications to achieve anesthetic depth while preserving ventilatory drive and airway tone, and the continuous provision of directed oxygen flow during airway manipulation. Propofol and volatile gases were avoided to preserve airway tone and respiratory drive.

CONCLUSIONS

We emphasize that an intravenous induction technique utilizing medications that preserve airway tone and ventilatory drive, and the use of  continuous oxygen flow throughout airway manipulation, allows for successful management of children with a difficult airway. The common practice of volatile inhalational induction should be avoided in anticipated difficult pediatric airways.

Worsening of Articular Tissue Damage as Defined by Semi-Quantitative MRI Is Associated With Concurrent Quantitative Cartilage Loss Over 24 Months

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of worsening of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) semi-quantitative (SQ) tissue features with concurrent change in quantitative (Q) cartilage thickness measurements over 24 months within the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health (FNIH) Biomarker Consortium study.

METHODS

In all, 599 participants were included. SQ assessment included cartilage damage, meniscal extrusion and damage, osteophytes, bone marrow lesions (BMLs), and effusion- and Hoffa-synovitis. Change in medial compartment Q cartilage thickness was stratified by concurrent ipsicompartmental SQ changes. Between-group comparisons were performed using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) with adjustment for age, sex, and body mass index (BMI). Results were presented as adjusted mean difference.

RESULTS

Knees with any increase in SQ cartilage scores in the medial compartment (n = 268) showed more Q cartilage loss compared to knees that remained stable (mean adjusted difference [MAD] = -0.16 mm, 95% confidence interval [CI]: [-0.19, -0.13] mm). Knees with any increase in meniscal extrusion in the medial compartment (n = 98) showed more Q cartilage loss than knees without (MAD = -0.18 mm, 95% CI: [-0.22, -0.14] mm. Comparable findings were seen for meniscal damage worsening. Regarding BMLs, an increase by one subregion resulted in a MAD of Q cartilage loss of -0.10 mm, 95% CI: [-0.14, -0.06] mm, while this effect almost tripled for change in two or more subregions. Increase in either effusion- and/or Hoffa-synovitis by one grade resulted in a MAD of -0.07 mm, 95% CI: [-0.10, -0.03] mm.

CONCLUSION

Worsening of SQ cartilage damage, meniscal extrusion and damage, number of subregions affected by BML, maximum size of BMLs and worsening of effusion- and/or Hoffa synovitis is associated with increased Q cartilage loss.

Associations of childhood-to-adulthood body size trajectories and genetic susceptibility with the risks of osteoarthritis: a population-based cohort study of UK Biobank data

BACKGROUND

Large adulthood body size was associated with increased risk of osteoarthritis. We aimed to examine the association between body size trajectories from childhood to adulthood and potential interactions with genetic susceptibility on osteoarthritis risk.

METHODS

We included participants from the UK Biobank aged 38-73 years in 2006-10. Childhood body size information was collected by questionnaire. Adulthood BMI was assessed and transformed into three categories (<25 kg/m² for normal, 25-29·9 kg/m² for overweight, and >30 kg/m² for obesity). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to assess the association between body size trajectories and osteoarthritis incidence. Osteoarthritis-related polygenic risk score (PRS) was constructed to evaluate its interactions with body size trajectories on osteoarthritis risk.

FINDINGS

For the 466 292 participants included, we identified nine body size trajectories [thinner to normal (11·6%), overweight (17·2%), or obesity (26·9%); average to normal (11·8%), overweight (16·2%), or obesity (23·7%); and plumper to normal (12·3%), overweight (16·2%), or obesity (23·6%)]. Compared with individuals in the average-to-normal group, all other trajectory groups had higher risks of osteoarthritis, after adjustment for demographic, social-economic and lifestyle covariates (hazard ratios [HRs] 1·05-2·41; all p<0·01). Among them, thinner-to-obesity (HR 2·41; 95% CI 2·23-2·49) had the most prominent association with increased osteoarthritis risk. A high PRS was significantly associated with an increased risk of osteoarthritis (1·14; 1·11-1·16), whereas no interaction between childhood-to-adulthood body size trajectories and PRS on osteoarthritis risks was observed. The population attributable fraction suggested that body size towards normal in adulthood could eliminate osteoarthritis cases by 18·67% for thinner-to-overweight to 38·74% for plumper-to-obesity.

INTERPRETATION

Average-to-normal body size seems to be the healthiest childhood-to-adulthood trajectory for osteoarthritis risk, whereas a trajectory of increased body size from thinner to obesity has the highest risk for osteoarthritis. These associations are independent of osteoarthritis genetic susceptibility.

FUNDING

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (32000925) and Guangzhou Science and Technology Program (202002030481).

Compliance of orthodontic practice websites with ethical, legal and regulatory advertising obligations

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The aim of the study was to investigate the degree to which the websites of orthodontists in Australia comply with the regulatory frameworks regarding healthcare advertising.

METHOD

The websites of orthodontist practices in Australia were assessed against Section 133 of the National Law and the Australian Health Practitioner Regulation Agency (AHPRA)'s guidelines pertaining to the advertising of regulated health services. Website content was assessed in relation to 5 domains regarding the provision of false and misleading information, the use of offers and inducement without clear terms and conditions, the use of patient testimonials, the creation of unrealistic expectation of benefit and the encouragement of the indiscriminate and unnecessary use of health services.

RESULTS

The websites of 166 orthodontist practices and 304 orthodontists satisfying inclusion/exclusion criteria were evaluated. Intra-rater agreement was high, ranging from 0.91 to 0.97. Most websites (80.7%) contravened the Law in one or more domains. The mean number of non-compliant domains per website was 2.2 (95% CI: 1.96 to 2.46). Information that was likely to create unrealistic expectations of orthodontic treatment (74.1%) was the domain most frequently breached with clinical information that only discussed the benefits of treatments contained in 64.5% of websites. Named commercial products were contained within 88.6% of the websites with links to commercial product manufacturers provided by 36.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Compliance of orthodontist practices in Australia with ethical, legal and regulatory advertising requirements is lacking. Orthodontists must exercise greater diligence in ensuring that the ethical requirements of preserving patient safety are not jeopardised by the advertising of their healthcare services.

Genetic Risk Scores for the Determination of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) in North India

BACKGROUND

Globally, type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is one of the fastest-growing noncommunicable multifactorial and polygenic diseases, which leads to many health complications and significant morbidity and mortality. South Asians have a high genetic predisposition to T2DM, with India being home to one in six diabetics. This study investigates the association of selected genetic polymorphisms with T2DM risk and develops a polygenic risk score (PRS).

METHODS

A case-control study recruited fully consented participants from a population of Jat Sikhs in north India. DNA samples were genotyped for a range of polymorphisms and odds ratios were calculated under several genetic association models. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were produced for combinations of the PRS and clinical parameters.

RESULTS

The GSTT1(rs17856199), GSTM1(rs366631), GSTP1(rs1695), KCNQ1(rs2237892), ACE(rs4646994), and TCF7L2(rs12255372; rs7903146; rs7901695) polymorphisms were associated with increased T2DM risk (p ≤ 0.05). No association was observed with IGF2BP2(rs4402960) or PPARG2(rs1801282). The weighted PRS was found to be significantly higher in patients (mean = 15.4, SD = 3.24) than controls (mean = 11.9, SD = 3.06), and t(454) = -12.2 (p < 0.001). The ROC curve analysis found the weighted PRS in combination with clinical variables to be the most effective predictor of T2DM (area under the curve = 0.844, 95%CI = 0.0.808-0.879).

CONCLUSIONS

Several polymorphisms were associated with T2DM risk. PRS based on even a limited number of loci improves the prediction of the disease. This may provide a useful method for determining T2DM susceptibility for clinical and public health applications.

Association of CA19-9 and tumor size in treatment monitoring for patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)

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Background: Although modern cancer treatment has significantly prolonged patient’s life, it comes with a high financial cost. Based on an NIH report on Financial Burden of Cancer Care, treating PDAC costs $108K, $18K, and $125K for initial treatment, during follow up, and in last year of life, respectively. Of these, CA19-9 and CT studies are obtained concurrently to evaluate tumor burden whose cost can be reduced by decreasing imaging frequency when CA19-9 remains stable. As a pilot study, we evaluated whether changes in CA19-9, an inexpensive laboratory study commonly used for monitoring treatment response, correlates with tumor size change on imaging studies. A positive correlation may lead us to design future studies to evaluate whether stable CA19-9 can serve as an indicator for stable disease on CT scan such that imaging frequency (and cost) may be reduced. Methods: We retrospectively identified PDAC patients from our tumor registry from 2016 to 2019. Subjects were included if they met the following criteria: 1) diagnosed with PDAC 2) had at least 2+ CA19-9 and CT/MR follow up assessments with the laboratory and imaging studies within one month of each other, and 3) had measurable lesions as defined by RECIST 1.1 criteria. Due to limited resources, we limited the maximum number of lesions to 4 instead of the usual 5 for RECIST 1.1. Two-dimensional orthogonal tumor sizes were measured on axial images with the largest cross-section. Changes in the values were obtained serially (from the immediately prior study). Nonparametric correlations (Spearman’s rho) were used to evaluate monotonicity. The significance level was set at p < 0.05. Results: We screened 300 subjects from the tumor registry and identified 23 subjects suitable for our study. 13 subjects were female and 10 were male with ages ranging from 35 to 84. We identified 55 target lesions and 128 assessments (with both CA19-9 and imaging) from the 23 subjects. We analyzed the log absolute and log relative change in CA19-9 with change in tumor area. When absolute CA19-9 value, absolute change in CA19-9, and relative change in CA19-9 were tested against the absolute change in tumor size, the correlation was significant for the absolute value and absolute change of CA19-9 (p < 0.01), but not for relative change of CA19-9 (p < 0.11). When tested against relative change in tumor size, all three values were highly significant (p < 0.001). Conclusions: Our finding of direct correlations between changes of CA19-9 and relative change of tumor size on imaging suggests that CA19-9 can serve as a surrogate measure of relative change of tumor burden for patients undergoing treatment. This provides motivation for future studies evaluating the possibility that stable CA19-9 can represent stable tumor burden such that expensive imaging studies may be obtained at longer time intervals to reduce financial cost to patients.

Quantitative infrapatellar fat pad signal intensity alteration as an imaging biomarker of knee osteoarthritis progression

OBJECTIVE

To determine the association of quantitative infrapatellar fat pad (IPFP) signal intensity alteration with knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression.

METHOD

This study was performed based on the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health OA Biomarkers Consortium study, a nested case-control study consisting of 600 participants. The IPFP signal intensity alterations were quantitatively measured at baseline, 12 months and 24 months. The associations of baseline and time-integrated values over 12 and 24 months of IPFP signal intensity measures with knee OA progression over 48 months were evaluated with adjustment for baseline confounders.

RESULTS

The baseline level of clustering effect of high signal intensity (Clustering factor (H)) was predictive of clinically relevant progression (both radiographic and pain progression) (OR 1.22). The time-integrated values of all IPFP signal intensity measures, except for mean value of IPFP signal intensity (Mean (IPFP)) over 24 months (ORs ranging from 1.23 to 1.39) as well was all except for Mean (IPFP) and mean value of IPFP high signal intensity (Mean (H)) over 12 months (ORs ranging from 1.20 to 1.31), were positively associated with clinically relevant progression. When the associations of quantitative IPFP signal intensity measures with radiographic and pain progression were examined separately, more IPFP signal intensity measures with stronger effect sizes were associated with radiographic progression compared with pain progression.

CONCLUSION

The associations of short-term alteration in quantitative IPFP signal intensity measures with long-term knee OA progression suggest that these measures might serve as efficacy of intervention biomarkers of knee OA.

The application of machine learning in early diagnosis of osteoarthritis: a narrative review

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the commonest musculoskeletal disease worldwide, with an increasing prevalence due to aging. It causes joint pain and disability, decreased quality of life, and a huge burden on healthcare services for society. However, the current main diagnostic methods are not suitable for early diagnosing patients of OA. The use of machine learning (ML) in OA diagnosis has increased dramatically in the past few years. Hence, in this review article, we describe the research progress in the application of ML in the early diagnosis of OA, discuss the current trends and limitations of ML approaches, and propose future research priorities to apply the tools in the field of OA. Accurate ML-based predictive models with imaging techniques that are sensitive to early changes in OA ahead of the emergence of clinical features are expected to address the current dilemma. The diagnostic ability of the fusion model that combines multidimensional information makes patient-specific early diagnosis and prognosis estimation of OA possible in the future.

Deciphering colorectal cancer genetics through multi-omic analysis of 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestries

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. We conducted a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of 100,204 CRC cases and 154,587 controls of European and east Asian ancestry, identifying 205 independent risk associations, of which 50 were unreported. We performed integrative genomic, transcriptomic and methylomic analyses across large bowel mucosa and other tissues. Transcriptome- and methylome-wide association studies revealed an additional 53 risk associations. We identified 155 high-confidence effector genes functionally linked to CRC risk, many of which had no previously established role in CRC. These have multiple different functions and specifically indicate that variation in normal colorectal homeostasis, proliferation, cell adhesion, migration, immunity and microbial interactions determines CRC risk. Crosstissue analyses indicated that over a third of effector genes most probably act outside the colonic mucosa. Our findings provide insights into colorectal oncogenesis and highlight potential targets across tissues for new CRC treatment and chemoprevention strategies.

The influence of anastomotic techniques on postoperative anastomotic complications: Results of the Oesophago-Gastric Anastomosis Audit

BACKGROUND

The optimal anastomotic techniques in esophagectomy to minimize rates of anastomotic leakage and conduit necrosis are not known. The aim of this study was to assess whether the anastomotic technique was associated with anastomotic failure after esophagectomy in the international Oesophago-Gastric Anastomosis Audit cohort.

METHODS

This prospective observational multicenter cohort study included patients undergoing esophagectomy for esophageal cancer over 9 months during 2018. The primary exposure was the anastomotic technique, classified as handsewn, linear stapled, or circular stapled. The primary outcome was anastomotic failure, namely a composite of anastomotic leakage and conduit necrosis, as defined by the Esophageal Complications Consensus Group. Multivariable logistic regression modeling was used to identify the association between anastomotic techniques and anastomotic failure, after adjustment for confounders.

RESULTS

Of the 2238 esophagectomies, the anastomosis was handsewn in 27.1%, linear stapled in 21.0%, and circular stapled in 51.9%. Anastomotic techniques differed significantly by the anastomosis sites (P < .001), with the majority of neck anastomoses being handsewn (69.9%), whereas most chest anastomoses were stapled (66.3% circular stapled and 19.3% linear stapled). Rates of anastomotic failure differed significantly among the anastomotic techniques (P < .001), from 19.3% in handsewn anastomoses, to 14.0% in linear stapled anastomoses, and 12.1% in circular stapled anastomoses. This effect remained significant after adjustment for confounding factors on multivariable analysis, with an odds ratio of 0.63 (95% CI, 0.46-0.86; P = .004) for circular stapled versus handsewn anastomosis. However, subgroup analysis by anastomosis site suggested that this effect was predominantly present in neck anastomoses, with anastomotic failure rates of 23.2% versus 14.6% versus 5.9% for handsewn versus linear stapled anastomoses versus circular stapled neck anastomoses, compared with 13.7% versus 13.8% versus 12.2% for chest anastomoses.

CONCLUSIONS

Handsewn anastomoses appear to be independently associated with higher rates of anastomotic failure compared with stapled anastomoses. However, this effect seems to be largely confined to neck anastomoses, with minimal differences between techniques observed for chest anastomoses. Further research into standardization of anastomotic approach and techniques may further improve outcomes.

Five-Year Cumulative Incidence of Axillary Web Syndrome and Comparison in Upper Extremity Movement, Function, Pain, and Lymphedema in Survivors of Breast Cancer With and Without Axillary Web Syndrome

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cumulative incidence and natural history of axillary web syndrome (AWS) and its related postoperative risk for physical impairments in a cohort of women followed for 5 years post breast cancer surgery.

DESIGN

Prospective, longitudinal study.

SETTING

Academic health center.

PARTICIPANTS

Women (N=36) with and without AWS after breast cancer surgery with sentinel node biopsy or axillary lymph node dissection.

INTERVENTIONS

Not applicable.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Participants were assessed for AWS, shoulder goniometric flexion and abduction range of motion, function (Disability of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand), lymphedema (bioimpedance spectroscopy, girth measures, tissue dielectric constant), and pain (visual analog scale) at 2, 4, 12, and 78 weeks and 5 years after breast cancer surgery. Analysis of variance compared range of motion, function, lymphedema, and pain in women identified with AWS with those without AWS across visits. Univariate logistic regression assessed if AWS was a risk factor for physical impairment at 5 years.

RESULTS

The cumulative incidence of AWS was 57%. Fifty percent (14/28) of the women who completed all study visits had signs of AWS at 5 years. Abduction active range of motion was significantly lower in women with AWS at 2 and 4 weeks post surgery. AWS was identified as a risk factor for reduced shoulder motion at 5 years. Regardless of AWS, 75% of the women experienced 1 or more upper extremity physical impairments at 5 years, which is an increase from 66% at 78 weeks in the same cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

AWS is associated with reduced shoulder range of motion in the early postoperative time period, can persist for 5 years after breast cancer surgery, and increases the risk of long-term reduced shoulder range of motion. Long-term physical issues are apparent after breast cancer surgery regardless of AWS.

Creating an interprofessional education package on patients' spiritual needs

This article outlines the experiences of a Scottish healthcare chaplain. After a student nurse expressed a dated view of chaplains, I realised it was my responsibility to refresh it. After reflection I planned, developed and implemented an interprofessional education session for nursing, midwifery and allied health professional (NMAHP) students on clinical placement. I had to develop awareness of learning theories, preferences and styles, and explore different methods of delivery. Since NMAHP students can be undergraduate, postgraduate, school leavers or career changers, the session is multi-generational and interprofessional. Attendee feedback was used to review the learning session. This package was developed and shared with my team but may be of value to other healthcare chaplains or spiritual care educators to introduce spiritual care to NMAHP students on clinical placement. It will also be a useful resource for nurses, midwives and allied health professionals to expand their understanding of the role.

Pollution and health: a progress update

The Lancet Commission on pollution and health reported that pollution was responsible for 9 million premature deaths in 2015, making it the world's largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature death. We have now updated this estimate using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuriaes, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We find that pollution remains responsible for approximately 9 million deaths per year, corresponding to one in six deaths worldwide. Reductions have occurred in the number of deaths attributable to the types of pollution associated with extreme poverty. However, these reductions in deaths from household air pollution and water pollution are offset by increased deaths attributable to ambient air pollution and toxic chemical pollution (ie, lead). Deaths from these modern pollution risk factors, which are the unintended consequence of industrialisation and urbanisation, have risen by 7% since 2015 and by over 66% since 2000. Despite ongoing efforts by UN agencies, committed groups, committed individuals, and some national governments (mostly in high-income countries), little real progress against pollution can be identified overall, particularly in the low-income and middle-income countries, where pollution is most severe. Urgent attention is needed to control pollution and prevent pollution-related disease, with an emphasis on air pollution and lead poisoning, and a stronger focus on hazardous chemical pollution. Pollution, climate change, and biodiversity loss are closely linked. Successful control of these conjoined threats requires a globally supported, formal science-policy interface to inform intervention, influence research, and guide funding. Pollution has typically been viewed as a local issue to be addressed through subnational and national regulation or, occasionally, using regional policy in higher-income countries. Now, however, it is increasingly clear that pollution is a planetary threat, and that its drivers, its dispersion, and its effects on health transcend local boundaries and demand a global response. Global action on all major modern pollutants is needed. Global efforts can synergise with other global environmental policy programmes, especially as a large-scale, rapid transition away from all fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy is an effective strategy for preventing pollution while also slowing down climate change, and thus achieves a double benefit for planetary health.

POS0182 WHO ARE LIKELY TO BENEFIT FROM THE GOOD LIFE WITH OSTEOARTHRITIS IN DENMARK (GLAD) EXERCISE AND EDUCATION PROGRAM? AN EFFECT MODIFIER ANALYSIS OF A RANDOMISED CONTROLLED TRIAL

Background

EULAR clinical guidelines have identified moderators of knee osteoarthritis (OA) outcomes as an important research priority to optimize individualized treatment. In our recent trial the GLAD exercise and education program was proved equivalent to open-label placebo (OLP) in 206 people with knee OA, which calls for evaluation of factors that may predict differential treatment response to GLAD versus OLP.

Objectives

To identify contextual factors that might modify the treatment effect of the ‘Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark’ (GLAD) exercise and education programme on knee osteoarthritis (OA) pain compared to that of open-label placebo (OLP) in individuals with knee OA, i.e. explore who are likely to benefit from participating in exercise and education programs.

Methods

Secondary effect modifier analysis of a randomised controlled trial, in which 206 adults aged ≥ 50 years, with symptomatic and radiographic knee OA were randomised to either an 8-week exercise and education programme (GLAD; n=102) or OLP in the form of 4 intra-articular saline injections over 8 weeks (n=104). Primary outcome was change from baseline to week 9 in the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score questionnaire (KOOS) pain subscale (range 0 (worst) to 100 (best)). Subgroups were created based on baseline information: BMI, swollen study knee, bilateral radiographic knee OA, sports participation as a young adult, sex, median age, a priori treatment preference, regular use of analgesics (NSAIDs or paracetamol), radiographic disease severity, and presence of constant and intermittent pain using the Intermittent and Constant Osteoarthritis Pain questionnaire. Analyses were based on the intention-to-treat principle with simple conservative non-responder imputation of missing outcome data.

Results

Participants who at baseline reported use of analgesics at baseline seem to benefit from the GLAD programme over OLP (subgroup contrast: 10.3 KOOS pain points (95% CI 3.0 to 17.6)). Further, participants with constant pain at baseline also seem to benefit from GLAD over OLP (subgroup contrast: 10.0 KOOS pain points (95%CI 2.8 to 17.2; P=0.007)). Further, a priori preference for GLAD also seemed to predict treatment effect in favour of GLAD. Presence of intermittent pain predicted beneficial effects of OLP, albeit the precision of the estimate was low. See Figure 1.

Figure 1.

Forest plot showing the results of the subgroup analyses based on the intention-to-treat population with missing outcome data at week 9 replaced with the baseline observation (non-responder imputation). The outcome is change from baseline in KOOS pain at week 9 (after 8 weeks of intervention). GLAD: The Good Life with osteoArthritis in Denmark exercise and education programme. OLP: Open-label placebo consisting of 4 intra-articular saline injections. K-L: Kellgren-Lawrence grading of radiographic disease severity.

The full vertical line indicates the overall treatment effect, and the dashed line indicates zero effect. *24 GLAD and 26 OLP had no preference and are not included in the analyses, and 8 GLAD and 5 OLP had missing data; †For study knee.

Conclusion

These results imply that GLAD should not be considered as a one-size-fits-all intervention. For patients who take analgesics for their knee pain or report constant knee pain, GLAD seems to yield clinically relevant benefits when compared to an open-label placebo. The results support a stratified recommendation of GLAD as management of knee OA.

Disclosure of Interests

None declared

Textbook outcome following oesophagectomy for cancer: international cohort study

Background

Textbook outcome has been proposed as a tool for the assessment of oncological surgical care. However, an international assessment in patients undergoing oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer has not been reported. This study aimed to assess textbook outcome in an international setting.

Methods

Patients undergoing curative resection for oesophageal cancer were identified from the international Oesophagogastric Anastomosis Audit (OGAA) from April 2018 to December 2018. Textbook outcome was defined as the percentage of patients who underwent a complete tumour resection with at least 15 lymph nodes in the resected specimen and an uneventful postoperative course, without hospital readmission. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors independently associated with textbook outcome, and results are presented as odds ratio (OR) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (95 per cent c.i.).

Results

Of 2159 patients with oesophageal cancer, 39.7 per cent achieved a textbook outcome. The outcome parameter ‘no major postoperative complication’ had the greatest negative impact on a textbook outcome for patients with oesophageal cancer, compared to other textbook outcome parameters. Multivariable analysis identified male gender and increasing Charlson comorbidity index with a significantly lower likelihood of textbook outcome. Presence of 24-hour on-call rota for oesophageal surgeons (OR 2.05, 95 per cent c.i. 1.30 to 3.22; P = 0.002) and radiology (OR 1.54, 95 per cent c.i. 1.05 to 2.24; P = 0.027), total minimally invasive oesophagectomies (OR 1.63, 95 per cent c.i. 1.27 to 2.08; P &lt; 0.001), and chest anastomosis above azygous (OR 2.17, 95 per cent c.i. 1.58 to 2.98; P &lt; 0.001) were independently associated with a significantly increased likelihood of textbook outcome.

Conclusion

Textbook outcome is achieved in less than 40 per cent of patients having oesophagectomy for cancer. Improvements in centralization, hospital resources, access to minimal access surgery, and adoption of newer techniques for improving lymph node yield could improve textbook outcome.

Textbook outcome following oesophagectomy for cancer: international cohort study

BACKGROUND

Textbook outcome has been proposed as a tool for the assessment of oncological surgical care. However, an international assessment in patients undergoing oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer has not been reported. This study aimed to assess textbook outcome in an international setting.

METHODS

Patients undergoing curative resection for oesophageal cancer were identified from the international Oesophagogastric Anastomosis Audit (OGAA) from April 2018 to December 2018. Textbook outcome was defined as the percentage of patients who underwent a complete tumour resection with at least 15 lymph nodes in the resected specimen and an uneventful postoperative course, without hospital readmission. A multivariable binary logistic regression model was used to identify factors independently associated with textbook outcome, and results are presented as odds ratio (OR) and 95 per cent confidence intervals (95 per cent c.i.).

RESULTS

Of 2159 patients with oesophageal cancer, 39.7 per cent achieved a textbook outcome. The outcome parameter 'no major postoperative complication' had the greatest negative impact on a textbook outcome for patients with oesophageal cancer, compared to other textbook outcome parameters. Multivariable analysis identified male gender and increasing Charlson comorbidity index with a significantly lower likelihood of textbook outcome. Presence of 24-hour on-call rota for oesophageal surgeons (OR 2.05, 95 per cent c.i. 1.30 to 3.22; P = 0.002) and radiology (OR 1.54, 95 per cent c.i. 1.05 to 2.24; P = 0.027), total minimally invasive oesophagectomies (OR 1.63, 95 per cent c.i. 1.27 to 2.08; P < 0.001), and chest anastomosis above azygous (OR 2.17, 95 per cent c.i. 1.58 to 2.98; P < 0.001) were independently associated with a significantly increased likelihood of textbook outcome.

CONCLUSION

Textbook outcome is achieved in less than 40 per cent of patients having oesophagectomy for cancer. Improvements in centralization, hospital resources, access to minimal access surgery, and adoption of newer techniques for improving lymph node yield could improve textbook outcome.

Surface-based protein domains retrieval methods from a SHREC2021 challenge

Proteins are essential to nearly all cellular mechanism and the effectors of the cells activities. As such, they often interact through their surface with other proteins or other cellular ligands such as ions or organic molecules. The evolution generates plenty of different proteins, with unique abilities, but also proteins with related functions hence similar 3D surface properties (shape, physico-chemical properties, …). The protein surfaces are therefore of primary importance for their activity. In the present work, we assess the ability of different methods to detect such similarities based on the geometry of the protein surfaces (described as 3D meshes), using either their shape only, or their shape and the electrostatic potential (a biologically relevant property of proteins surface). Five different groups participated in this contest using the shape-only dataset, and one group extended its pre-existing method to handle the electrostatic potential. Our comparative study reveals both the ability of the methods to detect related proteins and their difficulties to distinguish between highly related proteins. Our study allows also to analyze the putative influence of electrostatic information in addition to the one of protein shapes alone. Finally, the discussion permits to expose the results with respect to ones obtained in the previous contests for the extended method. The source codes of each presented method have been made available online.

Pain, function, and radiographic disease in trapeziometacarpal osteoarthritis

INTRODUCTION

Trapeziometacarpal joint osteoarthritis (OA) produces significant functional impairment due to pain and loss of strength in both power and precision grips, but few studies have related radiographic scores to functional and pain-based measures.

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between markers of radiographic disease and outcomes for symptomatic and functional disease.

STUDY DESIGN

This study in an exploratory analysis of baseline data from the first 100 participants in a clinical trial evaluating the efficacy of combined conservative therapies for base of thumb OA (COMBO).

METHODS

Functional Index for Hand Osteoarthritis (FIHOA) scores and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) scores for pain were recorded for the index hand. Bilateral isometric grip and tip-pinch strength measurements were taken, as well as posteroanterior and Eaton stress-view hand radiographs. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs), univariate, and multivariate analyses were used according to whether the data were bilateral or unilateral.

RESULTS

A total of 79 females and 21 males were included, with a median Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) grade of 3 in the index hand. Higher KL and Eaton grades were associated with lower grip strength in the GEE analysis (B-coefficients of -1.25 and -1.16, and P-values of .002 and .010, respectively). Higher KL grade was also associated with poorer function and higher pain levels in the multivariable analysis (B-coefficients of 1.029 and 3.681, and P-values of .021 and .047, respectively). Lower radial subluxation ratios were associated with lower grip strength in the GEE analysis, and higher pain scores in the multivariable analysis (B-coefficients of 2.06 and -42.1, and P-values of .006 and .031, respectively). Greater pain scores were also associated with poorer function (B-coefficient 0.082, P-value .001).

CONCLUSION

More advanced radiographic trapeziometacarpal OA severity is associated with lower grip strength and poorer self-reported functional outcomes. Lower subluxation ratios were associated with higher pain scores and lower grip strength.

In Vivo Quasi-Elastic Light Scattering Eye Scanner Detects Molecular Aging in Humans and Mice

The absence of clinical tools to evaluate individual variation in the pace of aging represents a major impediment to understanding aging and maximizing health throughout life. The lens is an ideal tissue for quantitative assessment of molecular aging in vivo. Long-lived proteins in lens fiber cells are expressed during fetal life, do not undergo turnover, accumulate molecular alterations throughout life, and are optically accessible in vivo. We used quasi-elastic light scattering (QLS) to measure age-dependent signals in lenses of both healthy human subjects and wild-type C57BL/6 mice. Age-dependent QLS signal changes detected in vivo in humans and mice recapitulated time-dependent changes in hydrodynamic radius, protein polydispersity, and supramolecular order of human lens proteins during long-term incubation (~1 year) and in response to sustained oxidation (~2.5 months) in vitro. Our findings demonstrate that QLS analysis of lens proteins provides a practical technique for noninvasive assessment of molecular aging in vivo.

Postoperative outcomes in oesophagectomy with trainee involvement

BACKGROUND

The complexity of oesophageal surgery and the significant risk of morbidity necessitates that oesophagectomy is predominantly performed by a consultant surgeon, or a senior trainee under their supervision. The aim of this study was to determine the impact of trainee involvement in oesophagectomy on postoperative outcomes in an international multicentre setting.

METHODS

Data from the multicentre Oesophago-Gastric Anastomosis Study Group (OGAA) cohort study were analysed, which comprised prospectively collected data from patients undergoing oesophagectomy for oesophageal cancer between April 2018 and December 2018. Procedures were grouped by the level of trainee involvement, and univariable and multivariable analyses were performed to compare patient outcomes across groups.

RESULTS

Of 2232 oesophagectomies from 137 centres in 41 countries, trainees were involved in 29.1 per cent of them (n = 650), performing only the abdominal phase in 230, only the chest and/or neck phases in 130, and all phases in 315 procedures. For procedures with a chest anastomosis, those with trainee involvement had similar 90-day mortality, complication and reoperation rates to consultant-performed oesophagectomies (P = 0.451, P = 0.318, and P = 0.382, respectively), while anastomotic leak rates were significantly lower in the trainee groups (P = 0.030). Procedures with a neck anastomosis had equivalent complication, anastomotic leak, and reoperation rates (P = 0.150, P = 0.430, and P = 0.632, respectively) in trainee-involved versus consultant-performed oesophagectomies, with significantly lower 90-day mortality in the trainee groups (P = 0.005).

CONCLUSION

Trainee involvement was not found to be associated with significantly inferior postoperative outcomes for selected patients undergoing oesophagectomy. The results support continued supervised trainee involvement in oesophageal cancer surgery.

EP.WE.324Variation Between Observed and Perceived Volume of Antireflux Operations Completed by Upper-Gastrointestinal Surgeons at a University Teaching Hospital

Aims

Increased institutional volume and surgeon experience with antireflux surgery has been shown to improve patient outcomes. We have sought to illustrate the discrepancy between the perceived (self-reported) and observed annual volume of anti-reflux operations completed by each surgeon.

Method

A retrospective questionnaire was delivered to all upper-gastrointestinal (UGI) surgeons performing antireflux surgeries (ARS) at a University Teaching Hospital. Surgeons were asked to estimate the quantity of NHS antireflux cases completed annually. Objective, anonymised data was retrieved from the Surgical Workload Outcomes Audit Database (SWORD) from 2017 to 2020 for comparison.

Results

127 ARS were completed by 6 UGI consultants between January 2018 and December 2020. The median number of ARS completed per surgeon was 5 (2-10) in 2018, 9 (4-11) in 2019 and 10 (1-11) in 2020. Conversely, the median number of self-reported annual procedures per surgeon was 20 (12-35). On average, participants overestimated the number of NHS ARS completed by 14.5 (4-27) cases or a factor of 2.08. No surgeon correctly or underestimated the number of ARS performed.

Conclusion

We conclude that self-reported operation volume should not be relied upon for the purposes of assessment or audit. Estimations of annual ARS procedures could be up to triple that suggested by objective data. Our data supports the importance of local or national data sets like SWORD to give an accurate reflection of practice and to allow individuals to compare their performance against their peers.

SP5.1.13 Upper gastrointestinal (UGI) mural thickening on Computed Tomography (CT) and its significance in the multi-disciplinary team (MDT) pathway

Aims

Patients are frequently referred to the UGI MDT based on CT reported thickening of either the oesophagus, stomach or duodenum. We have sought to illustrate the efficacy of CT within the UGI cancer referral pathway.

Method

A retrospective analysis was carried out on patients referred to the UGI MDT at a University Teaching Hospital over a 22-month period. Patients referred with CT evidence of UGI tract thickening prior to endoscopy were included. CT findings were correlated with symptomatology, subsequent endoscopy and histology findings.

Results

442 patients were referred to the UGI MDT between April 2014 and February 2016. 125 were referred for CT thickening alone (67 (53.2%) oesophageal, 49 (39.2%) gastric, 9 (7.2%) duodenal). 49 (39.2%) patients were subsequently diagnosed with UGI cancer, 57 (45.6%) had evidence of benign disease and 18 (14.4%) patients had no abnormality evident on endoscopy. CT thickening of 15mm and above was significantly more likely be malignant versus thickening less than 15mm [42/87 (48.3%) vs 7/38 (18.4%); p &lt; 0.05]. Patients with thickening in the presence of a hiatus hernia were significantly less likely to have an associated cancer vs those without [3/26 (13%) vs 20/42 (51.1%); p &lt; 0.05].

Conclusion

We conclude that patients should not be referred for MDT opinion on CT evidence of UGI thickening alone. All patients should have an endoscopy prior to referral, particularly those with a hiatal hernia on CT. A high index of suspicion for malignancy should be adopted in patients with thickening greater than 15mm on imaging.

790 Upper Gastrointestinal (UGI) Mural Thickening on Computed Tomography (CT) and its Significance in The Multi-Disciplinary Team (MDT) Pathway

Aim

Patients are frequently referred to the UGI MDT based on CT reported thickening of either the oesophagus, stomach, or duodenum. We have sought to illustrate the efficacy of CT within the UGI cancer referral pathway.

Method

A retrospective analysis was carried out on patients referred to the UGI MDT at a University Teaching Hospital over a 22-month period. Patients referred with CT evidence of UGI tract thickening prior to endoscopy were included. CT findings were correlated with symptomatology, subsequent endoscopy, and histology findings.

Results

442 patients were referred to the UGI MDT between April 2014 and February 2016. 125 were referred for CT thickening alone (67 (53.2%) oesophageal, 49 (39.2%) gastric, 9 (7.2%) duodenal). 49 (39.2%) patients were subsequently diagnosed with UGI cancer, 57 (45.6%) had evidence of benign disease and 18 (14.4%) patients had no abnormality evident on endoscopy. CT thickening of 15mm and above was significantly more likely be malignant versus thickening less than 15mm [42/87 (48.3%) vs 7/38 (18.4%); p &lt; 0.05]. Patients with thickening in the presence of a hiatus hernia were significantly less likely to have an associated cancer vs those without [3/26 (13%) vs 20/42 (51.1%); p &lt; 0.05].

Conclusions

We conclude that patients should not be referred for MDT opinion on CT evidence of UGI thickening alone. All patients should have an endoscopy prior to referral, particularly those with a hiatal hernia on CT. A high index of suspicion for malignancy should be adopted in patients with thickening greater than 15mm on imaging.

788 Variation Between Observed and Perceived Volume of Antireflux Operations Completed by Upper-Gastrointestinal Surgeons at a University Teaching Hospital

Aim

Increased institutional volume and surgeon experience with antireflux surgery has been shown to improve patient outcomes. We have sought to illustrate the discrepancy between the perceived (self-reported) and observed annual volume of anti-reflux operations completed by each surgeon.

Method

A retrospective questionnaire was delivered to all upper-gastrointestinal (UGI) surgeons performing antireflux surgeries (ARS) at a University Teaching Hospital. Surgeons were asked to estimate the quantity of NHS antireflux cases completed annually. Objective, anonymised data was retrieved from the Surgical Workload Outcomes Audit Database (SWORD) from 2017 to 2020 for comparison.

Results

127 ARS were completed by 6 UGI consultants between January 2018 and December 2020. The average number of ARS completed per surgeon was 5.8 (2-10) in 2018, 8.7 (4-11) in 2019 and 6.7 (1-11) in 2020. Conversely, the average number of self-reported annual procedures per surgeon was 22.4 (12-35). On average, participants overestimated the number of NHS ARS completed by 14.5 (4-27) cases or a factor of 2.08. No surgeon correctly or underestimated the number of ARS performed.

Conclusions

We conclude that self-reported operation volume should not be relied upon for the purposes of assessment or audit. Estimations of annual ARS procedures could be up to triple that suggested by objective data. We recommend that all surgeons maintain a database of ARS for the purpose of self-assessment and audit.

Genetic insights into biological mechanisms governing human ovarian ageing

Reproductive longevity is essential for fertility and influences healthy ageing in women1,2, but insights into its underlying biological mechanisms and treatments to preserve it are limited. Here we identify 290 genetic determinants of ovarian ageing, assessed using normal variation in age at natural menopause (ANM) in about 200,000 women of European ancestry. These common alleles were associated with clinical extremes of ANM; women in the top 1% of genetic susceptibility have an equivalent risk of premature ovarian insufficiency to those carrying monogenic FMR1 premutations3. The identified loci implicate a broad range of DNA damage response (DDR) processes and include loss-of-function variants in key DDR-associated genes. Integration with experimental models demonstrates that these DDR processes act across the life-course to shape the ovarian reserve and its rate of depletion. Furthermore, we demonstrate that experimental manipulation of DDR pathways highlighted by human genetics increases fertility and extends reproductive life in mice. Causal inference analyses using the identified genetic variants indicate that extending reproductive life in women improves bone health and reduces risk of type 2 diabetes, but increases the risk of hormone-sensitive cancers. These findings provide insight into the mechanisms that govern ovarian ageing, when they act, and how they might be targeted by therapeutic approaches to extend fertility and prevent disease.

Evaluation of the IgG antibody response to SARS CoV-2 infection and performance of a lateral flow immunoassay: cross-sectional and longitudinal analysis over 11 months

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the dynamics and longevity of the humoral immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection and assess the performance of professional use of the UK-RTC AbC-19 Rapid Test lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) for the target condition of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein IgG antibodies.

DESIGN

Nationwide serological study.

SETTING

Northern Ireland, UK, May 2020-February 2021.

PARTICIPANTS

Plasma samples were collected from a diverse cohort of individuals from the general public (n=279), Northern Ireland healthcare workers (n=195), pre-pandemic blood donations and research studies (n=223) and through a convalescent plasma programme (n=183). Plasma donors (n=101) were followed with sequential samples over 11 months post-symptom onset.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels in plasma samples using Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgA/IgM, Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG and EuroImmun IgG SARS-CoV-2 ELISA immunoassays over time. UK-RTC AbC-19 LFIA sensitivity and specificity, estimated using a three-reference standard system to establish a characterised panel of 330 positive and 488 negative SARS-CoV-2 IgG samples.

RESULTS

We detected persistence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies for up to 10 months post-infection, across a minimum of two laboratory immunoassays. On the known positive cohort, the UK-RTC AbC-19 LFIA showed a sensitivity of 97.58% (95.28% to 98.95%) and on known negatives, showed specificity of 99.59% (98.53 % to 99.95%).

CONCLUSIONS

Through comprehensive analysis of a cohort of pre-pandemic and pandemic individuals, we show detectable levels of IgG antibodies, lasting over 46 weeks when assessed by EuroImmun ELISA, providing insight to antibody levels at later time points post-infection. We show good laboratory validation performance metrics for the AbC-19 rapid test for SARS-CoV-2 spike protein IgG antibody detection in a laboratory-based setting.

Effect of a Consumer-Focused Website for Low Back Pain on Health Literacy, Treatment Choices, and Clinical Outcomes: Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

The internet is used for information related to health conditions, including low back pain (LBP), but most LBP websites provide inaccurate information. Few studies have investigated the effectiveness of internet resources in changing health literacy or treatment choices.

Objective

This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the MyBackPain website compared with unguided internet use on health literacy, choice of treatments, and clinical outcomes in people with LBP.

Methods

This was a pragmatic, web-based, participant- and assessor-blinded randomized trial of individuals with LBP stratified by duration. Participants were randomly allocated to have access to the evidence-based MyBackPain website, which was designed with input from consumers and expert consensus or unguided internet use. The coprimary outcomes were two dimensions of the Health Literacy Questionnaire (dimension 2: “having sufficient information to manage my health;” dimension 3: “actively managing my health;” converted to scores 1-100) at 3 months. Secondary outcomes included additional Health Literacy Questionnaire dimensions, quality of treatment choices, and clinical outcomes.

Results

A total of 453 participants were recruited, and 321 (70.9%) completed the primary outcomes. Access to MyBackPain was not superior to unguided internet use on primary outcomes (dimension 2: mean difference −0.87 units, 95% CI −3.56 to 1.82; dimension 3: mean difference −0.41 units, 95% CI −2.78 to 1.96). Between-group differences in other secondary outcomes had inconsistent directions and were unlikely to be clinically important, although a small improvement of unclear importance in the quality of stated treatment choices at 1 month was found (mean difference 0.93 units, 95% CI 0.03 to 1.84).

Conclusions

MyBackPain was not superior to unguided internet use for health literacy, but data suggest some short-term improvement in treatment choices. Future research should investigate if greater interactivity and engagement with the website may enhance its impact.

Trial Registration

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12617001292369; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=372926

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR2-10.1136/bmjopen-2018-027516

Splenic embolization in trauma: results of a survey from an international cohort

PURPOSE

A questionnaire regarding splenic embolization in trauma was submitted to an international sample of IR faculty members, to compare their practice to the available recommendations.

METHODS

A 21 multiple-choice questionnaire was sent to an international cohort of 96 IR faculty. Questions included the initial patient evaluation, embolization materials and techniques, post-procedure management, availability of an institutional protocol, and use of guidelines.

RESULTS

For each question, there were from a minimum of 45 to a maximum of 52 responders: 94% require a CT with contrast prior to embolization, and 87% use the American Association for the Surgery of Trauma (AAST) scale to grade the splenic injuries. Embolization is performed across all values of the AAST scale. Of the patients with injuries of grade III or greater, embolization is primarily done for those patients who are hemodynamically stable. Unstable patients are embolized less frequently and primarily in cases in which the injuries are of a lower grade. Coils are the preferred material for proximal embolization (69%). Particles/Gelfoam is the preferred material for distal embolization (38%). In total, 63% administer intravenous antibiotics before the procedure and 15% administer intra-arterial antibiotics during the procedure. After embolization, follow-up imaging is recommended by 87%, antibiotics are administered regularly by 33%, clinical follow-up is recommended by 73%, and vaccination against encapsulated organisms is routinely recommended by 39%.

CONCLUSIONS

There is significant variability among a heterogeneous cohort of respondents. Available recommendations may not be sufficiently addressing the practice of splenic embolization.

POS1148 RISK FACTORS FOR POLYARTICULAR GOUT FLARES—ANALYSIS OF A LONGITUDINAL ONLINE GOUT FOLLOW-UP STUDY

Background:

There are known and established risk factors for gout flares; however, no study has examined the factors specifically associated with a polyarticular gout flare.

Objectives:

Evaluate risk factors of a polyarticular gout flare in a longitudinal study of individuals with gout.

Methods:

We used data from the Boston Online Gout Study, a longitudinal internet-based case-crossover study, where gout patients with at least one flare within the past year were enrolled across the US. Participants (N=903) were followed prospectively for 1 year via the internet to collect information on gout flares and related data including number and specific joints involved, medical comorbidities, diet, exercise and medications.

A polyarticular gout flare was defined as having 3 or more joints involved during a patient-reported flare period. Individuals with at least one flare (to determine flare pattern) during follow-up were included in the analysis. Univariable associations were first assessed to determine factors were associated with polyarticular joint flares. was used to adjust for confounders. When assessing the association of each risk factor with prevalent polyarticular joint involvement, we used multivariable logistic regression, adjusting specific confounders guided by causal diagram.

Results:

There were 724 participants with at least one flare with a mean and median age of 55 years. The cohort was 78% male and 89% White with a mean gout disease duration of 8.1 years (median 5). 197 (27%) had a polyarticular gout flare. In univariable analysis (Table 1), female sex, osteoarthritis, obesity, heart failure, hypertension, chronic kidney disease and gout related medication use were each associated with higher odds of polyarticular gout flare, whereas higher education, alcohol use at study enrollment and aspirin use were associated with lower odds. In multivariable analysis, obesity, osteoarthritis and heart failure remained associated with a higher odds of polyarticular gout flare, whereas education remained inversely associated.

Conclusion:

In this prospective cohort of gout patients, obesity, heart failure and osteoarthritis were independently associated with higher odds for polyarticular gout flares. Female sex was also positively associated, whereas higher education was protective. The positive association with gout-related medications likely reflects residual confounding by indication. If confirmed, these findings would help identify those at risk for polyarticular flares to help improve clinical care.

Table 1.

Associations with Polyarticular Gout Flare (≥ 3 joints)

Risk FactorUnivariable OR (95% CI)Age- and Sex-Adjusted OR (95% CI)Multivariable OR* (95% CI)Age ≥ 55 years (vs < 55)0.82 (0.59,1.14)0.77 (0.56,1.08)0.70 (0.49,1.01)Female Sex1.51 (1.04,2.22)1.55 (1.03,2.32)1.21 (0.78,1.88)White Race (vs Non-White)0.89 (0.54,1.48)0.93 (0.56,1.54)0.75 (0.44,1.28)Education (vs High School or Less)Some college0.63 (0.37,1.07)0.53 (0.37,1.07)0.68 (0.39,1.17)College0.45 (0.25,0.78)0.46 (0.26,0.81)0.49 (0.27,0.88)Post-graduate0.42 (0.25,0.72)0.44 (0.26,0.76)0.48 (0.28,0.84)Body Mass Index (kg/m2) at Enrollment (vs < 25)25-29.91.69 (0.85,3.33)1.77 (0.89,3.51)1.82 (0.90,3.65)≥ 302.38 (1.24,4.58)2.30 (1.19,4.43)2.19 (1.12,4.28)Alcohol Use at Enrollment (vs. Non-Use)0.60 (0.40,0.89)0.60 (0.40,0.91)**Gout Duration ≥ 5 years (vs < 5)0.85 (0.61,1.18)0.93 (0.66,1.31)0.95 (0.66,1.35)Presence of Comorbidities at Enrollment (vs Absence)Osteoarthritis2.35 (1.45,3.81)2.37 (1.43,3.95)2.39 (1.42,4.04)Heart Failure2.06 (1.11,3.81)2.21 (1.17,4.17)2.03 (1.06,3.91)Hypertension1.61 (1.08,2.40)1.69 (1.10,2.60)**Chronic Kidney Disease1.97 (1.03,3.78)2.11 (1.09,4.11)**Medication Use at Enrollment (vs No Use)Allopurinol1.58 (1.13,2.22)1.59 (1.13,2.23)**Diuretics1.53 (1.06,2.21)1.59 (1.06,2.38)**Oral Steroids2.21 (1.16,4.18)2.26 (1.19,4.31)**Aspirin0.68 (0.47,0.98)0.72 (0.49,1.07)**

*Mutually adjusted for the variables in this column

**Not included in model

Acknowledgements:

NIH P50AR060772.

Disclosure of Interests:

Jonathan Dau: None declared, Natalie McCormick: None declared, Sarah Stratton: None declared, Chio Yokose: None declared, Clara Chen: None declared, Tuhina Neogi Shareholder of: Lilly, EMD Merck Serono, Novartis, Regeneron, Pfizer/Lilly, David Hunter Shareholder of: Pfizer, Lilly, Merck Serono, Kenneth Saag Consultant of: Arthrosi, Horizon Therapeutics plc, Atom Bioscience, LG Pharma, Takeda, Mallinkrodt, SOBI, Grant/research support from: Horizon Therapeutics plc, Shanton, SOBI, Yuqing Zhang: None declared, Hyon Choi Consultant of: Ironwood, Selecta, Horizon, Takeda, Kowa, Vaxart, Grant/research support from: Ironwood, Horizon.