The Global Framework for the Progressive Control of Transboundary Animal Diseases - Strengthening Infectious Disease Management and Veterinary Systems Across the Continents: Origins and Testimony

Transboundary animal diseases are defined by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nation's Emergency Prevention System as those diseases that are of significant economic, trade and/or food security importance, which can easily spread to other countries and reach epidemic proportions, and where control/management including exclusion requires cooperation among several countries. The Global Framework for the Progressive Control of Transboundary Animal Diseases represents a platform of the FAO and World Organisation for Animal Health to engage regional sub-regional organizations and national veterinary authorities in developing and monitoring progress in animal disease management efforts.

A longitudinal study of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in dromedary camels

BACKGROUND

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was identified in humans in 2012. Since then, 2605 cases and 937 associated deaths have been reported globally. Camels are the natural host for MERS-CoV and camel to human transmission has been documented. The relationship between MERS-CoV shedding and presence of neutralizing antibodies in camels is critical to inform surveillance and control, including future deployment of camel vaccines. However, it remains poorly understood. The longitudinal study conducted in a closed camel herd in Egypt between December 2019 and March 2020 helped to characterize the kinetics of MERS-CoV neutralizing antibodies and its relation with viral shedding.

RESULTS

During the 100-day longitudinal study, 27 out of 54 camels (50%) consistently tested negative for presence of antibodies against MERS-CoV, 19 (35.2%) tested positive and 8 (14.8%) had both, positive and negative test results. Fourteen events that could be interpreted as serological indication of probable infection (two seroconversions and twelve instances of positive camels more than doubling their optical density ratio (OD ratio) in consecutive samples) were identified. Observed times between the identified events provided strong evidence (p = 0.002) against the null hypothesis that they occurred with constant rate during the study, as opposed to clustering at certain points in time. A generalized additive model showed that optical density ratio (OD ratio) is positively associated with being an adult and varies across individual camels and days, peaking at around days 20 and 90 of the study. Despite serological indication of probable virus circulation and intense repeated sampling, none of the tested nasal swab samples were positive for MERS-CoV RNA, suggesting that, if the identified serological responses are the result of virus circulation, the virus may be present in nasal tissue of infected camels during a very narrow time window.

CONCLUSIONS

Longitudinal testing of a closed camel herd with past history of MERS-CoV infection is compatible with the virus continuing to circulate in the herd despite lack of contact with other camels. It is likely that episodes of MERS-CoV infection in camels can take place with minimal presence of the virus in their nasal tissues, which has important implications for future surveillance and control of MERS-CoV in camel herds and prevention of its zoonotic transmission.

Advancing One human-animal-environment Health for global health security: what does the evidence say?

In this Series paper, we review the contributions of One Health approaches (ie, at the human-animal-environment interface) to improve global health security across a range of health hazards and we summarise contemporary evidence of incremental benefits of a One Health approach. We assessed how One Health approaches were reported to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the UN, the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH, formerly OIE), and WHO, within the monitoring and assessment frameworks, including WHO International Health Regulations (2005) and WOAH Performance of Veterinary Services. We reviewed One Health theoretical foundations, methods, and case studies. Examples from joint health services and infrastructure, surveillance-response systems, surveillance of antimicrobial resistance, food safety and security, environmental hazards, water and sanitation, and zoonoses control clearly show incremental benefits of One Health approaches. One Health approaches appear to be most effective and sustainable in the prevention, preparedness, and early detection and investigation of evolving risks and hazards; the evidence base for their application is strongest in the control of endemic and neglected tropical diseases. For benefits to be maximised and extended, improved One Health operationalisation is needed by strengthening multisectoral coordination mechanisms at national, regional, and global levels.

A systematic approach toward progressive improvement of national antimicrobial resistance surveillance systems in food and agriculture sectors

The first Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) Action Plan on antimicrobial resistance (AMR), published in 2016, identified the need to develop capacity for AMR surveillance and monitoring in food and agriculture sectors. As part of this effort, FAO has developed the "Assessment Tool for Laboratories and AMR Surveillance Systems" (FAO-ATLASS) to assist countries in systematically assessing their AMR surveillance system in food and agriculture. FAO-ATLASS includes two different modules for surveillance and laboratory assessment. Each module includes two questionnaires that collect either qualitative or semi-quantitative data to describe and score the performance of national AMR surveillance system data production network, data collection and analysis, governance, communication and overall sustainability in a standardized manner. Based on information captured in the questionnaire by trained assessors (1) tables and figures describing the outputs of the surveillance system are automatically generated (2) a Progressive Improvement Pathway (PIP) stage, ranging from "1-limited" to "5-sustainable", is assigned to each laboratory assessed in the country, each area of the surveillance system and also to the overarching national AMR surveillance system. FAO-ATLASS allows national authorities to implement a strategic stepwise approach to improving their AMR surveillance systems via the FAO-ATLASS PIP system and provides an evidence base for actions and advocacy. The implementation of FAO-ATLASS at regional and global levels can contribute to harmonize and better coordinate strategies aimed at implementing an integrated AMR surveillance system under the One Health approach.

Seasonality and Ecological Suitability Modelling for Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) in Western Africa

Simple Summary

Anthrax is a globally distributed, neglected, underreported, soil-borne zoonotic disease. In West Africa, the disease is hyper-endemic, severely affecting the livestock sector. Many challenges exist to control the disease in this region, particularly constraints on financial and human resources. Therefore, methods that can be utilized to improve reporting, guide and prioritize surveillance and control activities and rationalize the allocation of limited resources are crucial. In this study, we showed how to optimize the use of fragmented, heterogeneous and limited precise reporting data of anthrax in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Niger to understand risk periods as well as identify and predict risk areas. To achieve this, we used anthrax data from different databases in combination with environmental and climate variables and geospatial remote sensing techniques. Our study demonstrated that the number of anthrax outbreaks by month increase with the increasing monthly rates of change in precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the transition period from the dry to the wet season. Livestock density, precipitation, NDVI and alkaline soils were the main predictors of anthrax suitability in the region. Our findings on anthrax seasonality and ecological suitability can inform surveillance, prevention and control programs undertaken by animal and public health authorities and enhance collaborative One Health strategies.

Abstract

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa affecting wildlife, livestock and humans. Prediction is difficult due to the lack of accurate outbreak data. However, predicting the risk of infection is important for public health, wildlife conservation and livestock economies. In this study, the seasonality of anthrax outbreaks in West Africa was investigated using climate time series and ecological niche modeling to identify environmental factors related to anthrax occurrence, develop geospatial risk maps and identify seasonal patterns. Outbreak data in livestock, wildlife and humans between 2010 and 2018 were compiled from different sources and analyzed against monthly rates of change in precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature. Maximum Entropy was used to predict and map the environmental suitability of anthrax occurrence. The findings showed that: (i) Anthrax outbreaks significantly (99%) increased with incremental changes in monthly precipitation and vegetation growth and decremental changes in monthly temperature during January–June. This explains the occurrence of the anthrax peak during the early wet season in West Africa. (ii) Livestock density, precipitation seasonality, NDVI and alkaline soils were the main predictors of anthrax suitability. (iii) Our approach optimized the use of limited and heterogeneous datasets and ecological niche modeling, demonstrating the value of integrated disease notification data and outbreak reports to generate risk maps. Our findings can inform public, animal and environmental health and enhance national and regional One Health disease control strategies.

A literature review of the use of environmental sampling in the surveillance of avian influenza viruses

This literature review provides an overview of use of environmental samples (ES) such as faeces, water, air, mud and swabs of surfaces in avian influenza (AI) surveillance programs, focussing on effectiveness, advantages and gaps in knowledge. ES have been used effectively for AI surveillance since the 1970s. Results from ES have enhanced understanding of the biology of AI viruses in wild birds and in markets, of links between human and avian influenza, provided early warning of viral incursions, allowed assessment of effectiveness of control and preventive measures, and assisted epidemiological studies in outbreaks, both avian and human. Variation exists in the methods and protocols used, and no internationally recognized guidelines exist on the use of ES and data management. Few studies have performed direct comparisons of ES versus live bird samples (LBS). Results reported so far demonstrate reliance on ES will not be sufficient to detect virus in all cases when it is present, especially when the prevalence of infection/contamination is low. Multiple sample types should be collected. In live bird markets, ES from processing/selling areas are more likely to test positive than samples from bird holding areas. When compared to LBS, ES is considered a cost-effective, simple, rapid, flexible, convenient and acceptable way of achieving surveillance objectives. As a non-invasive technique, it can minimize effects on animal welfare and trade in markets and reduce impacts on wild bird communities. Some limitations of environmental sampling methods have been identified, such as the loss of species-specific or information on the source of virus, and taxonomic-level analyses, unless additional methods are applied. Some studies employing ES have not provided detailed methods. In others, where ES and LBS are collected from the same site, positive results have not been assigned to specific sample types. These gaps should be remedied in future studies.

Base protocol for real time active random surveillance of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) - Adapting veterinary methodology to public health

The pandemic of new coronavirus disease COVID-19 is threatening our health, economy and life style. Collaborations across countries and sectors as a One Health World could be a milestone.

We propose a general protocol, for setting timely active random surveillance of COVID-19, at the human community level, with systematic repeated detection efforts. Strengths and limitations are discussed.

If considered applicable by public health, the protocol could evaluate the status of COVID-19 epidemics consistently and objectively.

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A base protocol is proposed for setting active random surveillance of COVID-19.

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The protocol is based on widely known veterinary surveillance methodologies.

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By applying the protocol, COVID-19 epidemics could be consistently assessed.

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The protocol could be a milestone in the battle against the pandemic.

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Authorities could consider if the protocol is applicable for public health.

Surveillance to improve evidence for community control decisions during the COVID-19 pandemic - Opening the animal epidemic toolbox for Public Health

During the first few months of 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic reached Europe and spread around the world. Health systems all over the world are trying to control the outbreak in the shortest possible time. Exotic disease outbreaks are not uncommon in animal health and randomised surveillance is frequently used as support for decision-making. This editorial discusses the possibilities of practicing One Health, by using methods from animal health to enhance surveillance for COVID-19 to provide an evidence base fort decision-making in communities and countries.

Eradication of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus and the Wildlife-Livestock Interface

Growing evidence suggests that multiple wildlife species can be infected with peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV), with important consequences for the potential maintenance of PPRV in communities of susceptible hosts, and the threat that PPRV may pose to the conservation of wildlife populations and resilience of ecosystems. Significant knowledge gaps in the epidemiology of PPRV across the ruminant community (wildlife and domestic), and the understanding of infection in wildlife and other atypical host species groups (e.g., camelidae, suidae, and bovinae) hinder our ability to apply necessary integrated disease control and management interventions at the wildlife-livestock interface. Similarly, knowledge gaps limit the inclusion of wildlife in the FAO/OIE Global Strategy for the Control and Eradication of PPR, and the framework of activities in the PPR Global Eradication Programme that lays the foundation for eradicating PPR through national and regional efforts. This article reports on the first international meeting on, "Controlling PPR at the livestock-wildlife interface," held in Rome, Italy, March 27-29, 2019. A large group representing national and international institutions discussed recent advances in our understanding of PPRV in wildlife, identified knowledge gaps and research priorities, and formulated recommendations. The need for a better understanding of PPRV epidemiology at the wildlife-livestock interface to support the integration of wildlife into PPR eradication efforts was highlighted by meeting participants along with the reminder that PPR eradication and wildlife conservation need not be viewed as competing priorities, but instead constitute two requisites of healthy socio-ecological systems.

Expanding beyond zoonoses: the benefits of a national One Health coordination mechanism to address antimicrobial resistance and other shared health threats at the human-animal-environment interface in Kenya

In order to manage global and transnational health threats at the human- animal-environment interface, a multisectoral One Health approach is required. Threats of this nature that require a One Health approach include, but are not limited to, emerging, endemic and re-emerging zoonotic diseases, food safety, antimicrobial resistance (AMR), vector-borne and neglected infectious diseases, toxicosis and pesticides. Relevant Kenyan authorities formally institutionalised One Health in 2011 through the establishment of the Zoonotic Disease Unit (ZDU) and its advisory group, the Zoonoses Technical Group. At that time, the One Health agenda focused on zoonotic diseases. As the issue of AMR began to gain traction globally, a One Health approach to its management was advocated in Kenya in 2015. This paper summarises a series of interviews (with respondents and key informants) that describe how AMR institutionalisation evolved in Kenya. It also examines how responses to other health threats at the human-animal- environment interface were coordinated and used to identify gaps and make recommendations to improve One Health coordination at the national level in Kenya. Results showed that the road to the institutionalisation of AMR through the National Action Plan on Prevention and Containment of Antimicrobial Resistance, 2017-2022 and a formally launched One Health coordination mechanism, the National Antimicrobial Stewardship Interagency Committee (NASIC), took ten years. Moreover, supplementary actions are still needed to further strengthen AMR coordination. In addition to the ZDU and NASIC, Kenya has established two other formal multisectoral and multidisciplinary coordination structures, one for aflatoxicosis and the other for health threats associated with pesticide use. The country has four distinct and separate One Health coordination mechanisms: for zoonoses, for AMR, for aflatoxicosis and for the health threats associated with pesticide use. The main gap lies in the lack of overall coordination between these topic-specific structures. An overall coordination mechanism for all One Health issues is therefore needed to improve synergy and complementarity. None of the topic-specific mechanisms plays a critical role in the policy development process, institutionalisation or implementation of activities related to the other topic areas. The authors recommend renaming the ZDU as the One Health Office, and expanding it to include AMR and food safety teams, and their associated technical working groups. Through this restructuring, the One Health Office would become an umbrella organisation dealing with all four issues mentioned above. Based on Kenya's experience, the authors recommend that other countries also consider expanding the scope of multisectoral One Health coordination mechanisms to include other shared health threats.

Field evaluation of common poultry viral vaccinesin Egypt: a need for reassessment of the vaccine value chain

Egypt has a large traditional and exotic poultry sector which is challenged regularly by poultry diseases in endemic and epidemic proportions. The household poultry in particular is a source of livelihoods and employment for millions of low income citizens. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and Newcastle disease are the most important poultry diseases in this sector. Whereas poultry vaccines are available to reduce the incidence of disease in Egypt, their effectiveness is doubtful. We conducted a biological evaluation of selected viral vaccines of poultry in three governorates in Egypt. Fifty‑four percent of the vaccines had reduced vaccine titres and the effect of secondary vaccine distributions was associated with the observed vaccine titres. External contamination was observed in some vaccines and break in cold chain was reported. Whereas no vaccine distributor used purpose‑built vaccine refrigerator, none also had prescribed protocol for vaccine handling or kept record of vaccine. There is a need to review vaccine handling procedure, monitor of vaccine cold chain more critically and review the whole chain that support vaccine distributions in Egypt.

International health threats and global early warning and response mechanisms

The global community continues to incur the high costs of crisis mitigation and emergency response to outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, such as those caused by the H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, Ebola virus, Nipah virus, Zika virus or the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. These viruses are particularly dangerous in regions associated with poor development indicators and high vulnerability. The drivers of these disease crises include failures in the way that animal diseases are detected and reported and failures in the way in which disease response is implemented by animal health and public health systems. In addition, the lack of a coordinated response hampers disease control efforts. A comprehensive approach for disease prevention, detection and response, however, requires a coordinated and joint effort among governments, communities, donors and international networks to invest effectively in prevention systems that can identify early signals of the emergence, spillover and spread of animal pathogens at the local level. These signals include trade bans, market closures, civil unrest, heavy rains and droughts associated with climate change, and livestock intensification or changes in consumer behaviour. The global community needs to increase its investment in early warning and detection systems that can provide information that enables action to be taken at the national, regional and global levels in the event of an outbreak of a transboundary animal disease (TAD). Like any preventive measure, an early warning system requires financial resources, but these are insignificant when compared to the losses that are avoided. Building a global early warning and effective response system for outbreaks is value for money, as the benefits far outweigh the costs. The goal of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) is to end hunger and poverty, which is a challenging and complex task. Building global capacity to prepare for and respond to TADs is an important element of the FAO's strategic objective to increase the resilience of livelihoods to threats and crises. Each year, livestock, and the people who rely upon them for their livelihoods, are confronted with animal disease and crises. They can strike suddenly, causing obvious illness and death, or emerge insidiously and become well established before becoming apparent. Animal disease emergencies threaten the production of, and access to, food; consequently, one of the FAO's missions is to help countries to prepare for and respond to animal health disasters.

Linking animal diseases and social instability

Social instability occurs as a consequence of war, civil strife or natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods and droughts. Animal diseases, including zoonoses, can be both a precursor to social instability and a result of social instability. Coping mechanisms, such as sound policies, trust in government, and robust infrastructure break down at times of civil instability. Such breakdowns often lead to a decline in both public health and the food and agricultural livestock base, thus creating a vicious cycle that involves inadequate nutrition, threatened livelihoods, and fewer opportunities for safe trade. This article is principally a discussion of a theoretical nature on the dynamics between animal diseases and social instability. Based on their experience of working for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the authors provide numerous examples of the connection between the two, mostly in countries that have fragile environments and are experiencing protracted crises. Disease has a direct and immediate effect on a community, but, in addition, if the community is not able to recover from the impact of a disease on their health and livelihoods, the consequences of an outbreak can persist even after the disease is no longer present. Stability, therefore, depends on a variety of factors, including the ability of a community to overcome the effects of a disease outbreak or other destabilising event. The FAO approach to helping families and communities to cope with the destabilizing effects of animal diseases is to build resilience, particularly amongst the most vulnerable households. This requires individuals and governments to gain a better understanding of what drives disease at the interface between human and animal health. In addition, it requires governments to invest in social protection programmes, establish a long-term risk reduction strategy that decreases vulnerability, and improve the sustainability of safe agricultural and marketing practices.

Mapping Potential Amplification and Transmission Hotspots for MERS-CoV, Kenya

Dromedary camels have been implicated consistently as the source of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) human infections and attention to prevent and control it has focused on camels. To understanding the epidemiological role of camels in the transmission of MERS-CoV, we utilized an iterative empirical process in Geographic Information System (GIS) to identify and qualify potential hotspots for maintenance and circulation of MERS-CoV, and produced risk-based surveillance sites in Kenya. Data on camel population and distribution were used to develop camel density map, while camel farming system was defined using multi-factorial criteria including the agro-ecological zones (AEZs), production and marketing practices. Primary and secondary MERS-CoV seroprevalence data from specific sites were analyzed, and location-based prevalence matching with camel densities was conducted. High-risk convergence points (migration zones, trade routes, camel markets, slaughter slabs) were profiled and frequent cross-border camel movement mapped. Results showed that high camel-dense areas and interaction (markets and migration zones) were potential hotspot for transmission and spread. Cross-border contacts occurred with in-migrated herds at hotspot locations. AEZ differential did not influence risk distribution and plausible risk factors for spatial MERS-CoV hotspots were camel densities, previous cases of MERS-CoV, high seroprevalence and points of camel convergences. Although Kenyan camels are predisposed to MERS-CoV, no shedding is documented to date. These potential hotspots, determined using anthropogenic, system and trade characterizations should guide selection of sampling/surveillance sites, high-risk locations, critical areas for interventions and policy development in Kenya, as well as instigate further virological examination of camels.

Sensitivity and Specificity Estimation for the Clinical Diagnosis of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the Egyptian Participatory Disease Surveillance Program

Many developing countries lack sufficient resources to conduct animal disease surveillance. In recent years, participatory epidemiology has been used to increase the cover and decrease the costs of surveillance. However, few diagnostic performance assessments have been carried out on participatory methods. The objective of the present study was to estimate the diagnostic performance of practitioners working for the Community-Based Animal Health and Outreach (CAHO) program, which is a participatory disease surveillance system for the detection of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Egypt. CAHO practitioners' diagnostic assessment of inspected birds was compared with real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RRT-PCR) test results at the household level. Diagnostic performance was estimated directly from two-by-two tables using RRT-PCR as a reference test in two different scenarios. In the first scenario, only results from chickens were considered. In the second scenario, results for all poultry species were analyzed. Poultry flocks in 916 households located in 717 villages were inspected by CAHO practitioners, who collected 3458 bird samples. In the first scenario, CAHO practitioners presented sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) estimates of 40% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 21%-59%) and 92% (95% CI: 91%-94%), respectively. In the second scenario, diagnostic performance estimates were Se = 47% (95% CI: 29%-65%) and Sp = 88% (95% CI: 86%-90%). A significant difference was observed only between Sp estimates (P < 0.01). Practitioners' diagnostics and RRT-PCR results were in very poor agreement with kappa values of 0.16 and 0.14 for scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. However, the use of a broad case definition, the possible presence of immunity against the virus in replacement birds, and the low prevalence observed during the survey would negatively affect the practitioners' performance.

Added Value of Avian Influenza (H5) Day-Old Chick Vaccination for Disease Control in Egypt

The immunity profile against H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the commercial poultry value chain network in Egypt was modeled with the use of different vaccination scenarios. The model estimated the vaccination coverage, the protective seroconversion level, and the duration of immunity for each node of the network and vaccination scenario. Partial budget analysis was used to compare the benefit-cost of the different vaccination scenarios. The model predicted that targeting day-old chick avian influenza (AI) vaccination in industrial and large hatcheries would increase immunity levels in the overall poultry population in Egypt and especially in small commercial poultry farms (from <30% to >60%). This strategy was shown to be more efficient than the current strategy of using inactivated vaccines. Improving HPAI control in the commercial poultry sector in Egypt would have a positive impact to improve disease control.

Cross-sectional surveillance of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in dromedary camels and other mammals in Egypt, August 2015 to January 2016

A cross-sectional study was conducted in Egypt to determine the prevalence of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) in imported and resident camels and bats, as well as to assess possible transmission of the virus to domestic ruminants and equines. A total of 1,031 sera, 1,078 nasal swabs, 13 rectal swabs, and 38 milk samples were collected from 1,078 camels in different types of sites. In addition, 145 domestic animals and 109 bats were sampled. Overall, of 1,031 serologically-tested camels, 871 (84.5%) had MERS-CoV neutralising antibodies. Seroprevalence was significantly higher in imported (614/692; 88.7%) than resident camels (257/339; 5.8%) (p < 0.05). Camels from Sudan (543/594; 91.4%) had a higher seroprevalence than those from East Africa (71/98; 72.4%) (p < 0.05). Sampling site and age were also associated with MERS-CoV seroprevalence (p < 0.05). All tested samples from domestic animals and bats were negative for MERS-CoV antibodies except one sheep sample which showed a 1:640 titre. Of 1,078 camels, 41 (3.8%) were positive for MERS-CoV genetic material. Sequences obtained were not found to cluster with clade A or B MERS-CoV sequences and were genetically diverse. The presence of neutralising antibodies in one sheep apparently in contact with seropositive camels calls for further studies on domestic animals in contact with camels.

Comparison of the effectiveness of rHVT-H5, inactivated H5 and rHVT-H5 with inactivated H5 prime/boost vaccination regimes in commercial broiler chickens carrying MDAs against HPAI H5N1 clade 2.2.1 virus

Vaccination is the main tool implemented in Egypt since 2007 to control H5N1 avian influenza. The present study aimed at comparing the effectiveness of three avian influenza vaccination regimes in commercial broiler chickens carrying high levels of maternally derived antibodies (MDAs). Day-old chicks were divided into four experimental groups. Group I received only the rHVT-H5 vaccine (recombinant turkey herpesvirus (HVT) which carries a H5 clade 2.2 insert) administered at D1. Group II received only the KV-H5 (an oil emulsion killed vaccine prepared from reassortant HPAI virus (A/duck/Anhui/1/06)) vaccine (inactivated reverse genetic H5N1 clade 2.3.4 virus) administered at D8. Group III received rHVT-H5 and KV-H5 as prime/boost. Group IV served as unvaccinated control. Weekly serological monitoring was conducted using the haemagglutination inhibition test. Two challenge experiments were conducted at D28 and D35 using HPAI H5N1 clade 2.2.1 virus. Birds were monitored daily 14 days post-challenge for morbidity and mortality, and oropharyngeal swabs were collected for virological monitoring. Initially, day-old chicks had high mean MDA titres (9 + 0.9 log2). The MDA half-life was >7 and <7 days, respectively, for unvaccinated and vaccinated birds. Group III showed the highest post-vaccination humoral immune response and seroconversion rate. The highest protection rate against morbidity (80-90%) and mortality (90-90%) was obtained in Group III after challenge at D28 and D35, respectively, as compared to Group I (70-70%) and (80-90%) and Group II (0-0%) and (30-30%). Groups I and III had lower number of shedder birds. The vaccination regime with prime/boost conferred the highest and earliest protection, and can hence be recommended for the broiler production sector in endemic and high HPAI H5N1 challenge areas.

Predominance and geo-mapping of avian influenza H5N1 in poultry sectors in Egypt

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus of the H5N1 subtype has been enzootic in the Egyptian poultry with significant human infections since 2008. This work evaluates the epidemiological and virological information from February 2006 to May 2015 in spatial and temporal terms. Only data with confirmed HPAI H5N1 sub-type were collected, and matched with the epidemiological data from various spatially and temporally-dispersed surveillances implemented between 2006 and 2015. Spatio-temporal analysis was conducted on a total of 3338 confirmed H5N1 HPAI poultry disease outbreaks and outputs described based on transmission patterns, poultry species, production types affected, trade, geographic and temporal distributions in Egypt. The H5N1 virus persists in the Egyptian poultry displaying a seasonal pattern with peak prevalence between January and March. There was no specific geographic pattern, but chickens and ducks were more affected. However, relatively higher disease incidences were recorded in the Nile Delta. Phylogenetic studies of the haemagglutinin gene sequences of H5N1 viruses indicated that multiple clusters circulated between 2006 and 2015, with significant deviations in circulation. Epidemiological dynamics of HPAI has changed with the origins of majority of outbreaks shifted to household poultry. The persistence of HPAI H5N1 in poultry with recurrent and sporadic infections in humans can influence virus evolution spatio-temporally. Household poultry plays significant roles in the H5N1 virus transmission to poultry and humans, but the role of commercial poultry needs further clarifications. While poultry trading supports the persistence and transmission of H5N1, the role of individual species may warrant further investigation. Surveillance activities, applying a multi-sectoral approach, are recommended.

Phylodynamics of avian influenza clade 2.2.1 H5N1 viruses in Egypt

Background

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the H5N1 subtype are widely distributed within poultry populations in Egypt and have caused multiple human infections. Linking the epidemiological and sequence data is important to understand the transmission, persistence and evolution of the virus. This work describes the phylogenetic dynamics of H5N1 based on molecular characterization of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of isolates collected from February 2006 to May 2014.

Methods

Full-length HA sequences of 368 H5N1 viruses were generated and were genetically analysed to study their genetic evolution. They were collected from different poultry species, production sectors, and geographic locations in Egypt. The Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (BMCMC) method was applied to estimate the evolutionary rates among different virus clusters; additionally, an analysis of selection pressures in the HA gene was performed using the Single Likelihood Ancestor Counting (SLAC) method.

Results

The phylogenetic analysis of the H5 gene from 2006–14 indicated the presence of one virus introduction of the classic clade (2.2.1) from which two main subgroups were originated, the variant subgroup which was further subdivided into 2 sub-divisions (2.2.1.1 and 2.2.1.1a) and the endemic subgroup (2.2.1.2). The clade 2.2.1.2 showed a high evolution rate over a period of 6 years (6.9 × 10⁻³ sub/site/year) in comparison to the 2.2.1.1a variant cluster (7.2 × 10⁻³ over a period of 4 years). Those two clusters are under positive selection as they possess 5 distinct positively selected sites in the HA gene. The mutations at 120, 154, and 162 HA antigenic sites and the other two mutations (129∆, I151T) that occurred from 2009–14 were found to be stable in the 2.2.1.2 clade. Additionally, 13 groups of H5N1 HPAI viruses were identified based on their amino acid sequences at the cleavage site and “EKRRKKR” became the dominant pattern beginning in 2013.

Conclusions

Continuous evolution of H5N1 HPAI viruses in Egypt has been observed in all poultry farming and production systems in almost all regions of the country. The wide circulation of the 2.2.1.2 clade carrying triple mutations (120, 129∆, I151T) associated with increased binding affinity to human receptors is an alarming finding of public health importance.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12985-016-0477-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Protective Efficacy of Recombinant Turkey Herpes Virus (rHVT-H5) and Inactivated H5N1 Vaccines in Commercial Mulard Ducks against the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 Clade 2.2.1 Virus

In Egypt, ducks kept for commercial purposes constitute the second highest poultry population, at 150 million ducks/year. Hence, ducks play an important role in the introduction and transmission of avian influenza (AI) in the Egyptian poultry population. Attempts to control outbreaks include the use of vaccines, which have varying levels of efficacy and failure. To date, the effects of vaccine efficacy has rarely been determined in ducks. In this study, we evaluated the protective efficacy of a live recombinant vector vaccine based on a turkey Herpes Virus (HVT) expressing the H5 gene from a clade 2.2 H5N1 HPAIV strain (A/Swan/Hungary/499/2006) (rHVT-H5) and a bivalent inactivated H5N1 vaccine prepared from clade 2.2.1 and 2.2.1.1 H5N1 seeds in Mulard ducks. A 0.3ml/dose subcutaneous injection of rHVT-H5 vaccine was administered to one-day-old ducklings (D1) and another 0.5ml/dose subcutaneous injection of the inactivated MEFLUVAC was administered at 7 days (D7). Four separate challenge experiments were conducted at Days 21, 28, 35 and 42, in which all the vaccinated ducks were challenged with 106EID50/duck of H5N1 HPAI virus (A/chicken/Egypt/128s/2012(H5N1) (clade 2.2.1) via intranasal inoculation. Maternal-derived antibody regression and post-vaccination antibody immune responses were monitored weekly. Ducks vaccinated at 21, 28, 35 and 42 days with the rHVT-H5 and MEFLUVAC vaccines were protected against mortality (80%, 80%, 90% and 90%) and (50%, 70%, 80% and 90%) respectively, against challenges with the H5N1 HPAI virus. The amount of viral shedding and shedding rates were lower in the rHVT-H5 vaccine groups than in the MEFLUVAC groups only in the first two challenge experiments. However, the non-vaccinated groups shed significantly more of the virus than the vaccinated groups. Both rHVT-H5 and MEFLUVAC provide early protection, and rHVT-H5 vaccine in particular provides protection against HPAI challenge.

Emergence of a novel cluster of influenza A(H5N1) virus clade 2.2.1.2 with putative human health impact in Egypt, 2014/15

A distinct cluster of highly pathogenic avian influenzaviruses of subtype A(H5N1) has been found to emergewithin clade 2.2.1.2 in poultry in Egypt since summer2014 and appears to have quickly become predominant.Viruses of this cluster may be associated withincreased incidence of human influenza A(H5N1) infectionsin Egypt over the last months.

Protection conferred by recombinant turkey herpesvirus avian influenza (rHVT-H5) vaccine in the rearing period in two commercial layer chicken breeds in Egypt

The effectiveness of recombinant turkey herpesvirus avian influenza (A/swan/Hungary/4999/2006(H5N1)) clade 2.2 virus (rHVT-H5) vaccine was evaluated in two layer chicken breeds (White Bovans [WB] and Brown Shaver [BS]). One dose of rHVT-H5 vaccine was administered at day 1 and birds were monitored serologically (haemagglutination inhibition test) and virologically for 19 weeks. Maternally-derived antibody and post-vaccination H5 antibody titres were measured using the Chinese (A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96(H5N1)) HA and the Egyptian (A/chicken/Egypt/128s/2012(H5N1)) HA as antigens. The challenge was conducted at 19 weeks of age and on six experimental groups: Groups I (WB) and II (BS), both vaccinated and challenged; Groups III (WB) and IV (BS), both vaccinated but not challenged; Groups V and VI, unvaccinated specific pathogen free chickens, serving respectively as positive and negative controls. The challenge virus was the clade 2.2.1 highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 A/chicken/Egypt/128s/2012 at a dose of 10(6) median embryo infective dose. For both breeds, complete maternally-derived antibody waning occurred at the age of 4 weeks. The immune response to rHVT-H5 vaccination was detected from the sixth week. The seroconversion rates for both breeds reached 85.7 to 100% in the eighth week of age. Protection levels of 73.3%, 60% and 0% were respectively recorded in Groups I, II and V. No mortalities occurred in the unchallenged groups. Group I showed superior results for all measured post-challenge parameters. In conclusion, a single rHVT-H5 hatchery vaccination conferred a high level of protection for a relatively extended period. This vaccine could be an important tool for future A/H5N1 prevention/control in endemic countries. Further studies on persistence of immunity beyond 19 weeks, need for booster with inactivated vaccines, breed susceptibility and vaccinal response, and transmissibility are recommended.

FAO and the One Health approach

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nation's view on One Health is broad as it extends from human, animal-domestic and wildlife-and environmental health. Though the nidus of work originated within FAO's animal health service of the Agriculture and Consumer Protection Department, it is clearly an area of work that would include other departments such as Natural Resources Management and the Environment, Forestry, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Economic and Social Development, Legal Services, and communication. In terms of risk assessment and risk mitigation to health threats at the human-animal-ecosystem interface FAO works closely with its global partners, World Health Organisation and the World Organisation for animal health (the "Tripartite"). FAO's animal health service sees its work in One Health as contributing to all eight Millennium Development Goals, recognising the importance of animal health to human health, food safety, nutrition and food security, ameliorating poverty and hunger, natural resource management and partnerships. Some examples of FAO's operationalising One Health approaches or principles are introduced.

Integrating the surveillance of animal health, foodborne pathogens and foodborne diseases in developing and in-transition countries

Animal diseases, foodborne pathogens and foodborne diseases have enormous impacts upon the health and livelihoods of producers and consumers in developing and in-transition countries. Unfortunately, the capacity for effective surveillance of infectious disease threats is often limited in these countries, leading to chronic under-reporting. This further contributes towards underestimating the effects of these diseases and an inability to implement effective control measures. However, innovative communications and diagnostic tools, as well as new analytical approaches and close cooperation within and between the animal and human health sectors, can be used to improve the coverage, quality and speed of reporting, as well as to generate more comprehensive estimates of the disease burden. These approaches can help to tackle endemic diseases and build essential surveillance capacities to address changing disease threats in the future.

Modelling the expected rate of laboratory biosafety breakdowns involving rinderpest virus in the post-eradication era

Now that we are in the rinderpest post-eradication era, attention is focused on the risk of re-introduction. A semi-quantitative risk assessment identified accidental use of rinderpest virus in laboratories as the most likely cause of re-introduction. However there is little data available on the rates of laboratory biosafety breakdowns in general. In addition, any predictions based on past events are subject to various uncertainties. The aims of this study were therefore to investigate the potential usefulness of historical data for predicting the future risk of rinderpest release via laboratory biosafety breakdowns, and to investigate the impacts of the various uncertainties on these predictions. Data were collected using a worldwide online survey of laboratories, a structured search of ProMED reports and discussion with experts. A stochastic model was constructed to predict the number of laboratory biosafety breakdowns involving rinderpest that will occur over the next 10 years, based on: (1) the historical rate of biosafety breakdowns; and (2) the change in the number of laboratories that will have rinderpest virus in the next 10 years compared to historically. The search identified five breakdowns, all of which occurred during 1970-2000 and all of which were identified via discussions with experts. Assuming that our search for historical events had a sensitivity of over 60% and there has been at least a 40% reduction in the underlying risk (attributable to decreased laboratory activity post eradication) the most likely number of biosafety events worldwide was estimated to be zero over a 10 year period. However, the risk of at least one biosafety breakdown remains greater than 1 in 10,000 unless the sensitivity was at least 99% or the number of laboratories has decreased by at least 99% (based on 2000-2010 during which there were no biosafety breakdowns).

Modelling influenza A H5N1 vaccination strategy scenarios in the household poultry sector in Egypt

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (AI) due to H5N1 virus was first reported in Egypt in February 2006; since then, the government has allowed avian influenza vaccination in poultry. The present study evaluated the impact of AI vaccination in terms of cumulative annual flock immunity (CAFI): the percentage of bird × weeks protected by immunity. This evaluation took account of the combined effects of vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy (VE), and different characteristics of household poultry production on the effectiveness of the adopted vaccination strategy (VS), and provided alternative options for improvement. The evaluation used a population and vaccination model that calculates the CAFI. Participatory approaches were employed in 21 villages to develop the vaccination and flock parameters required for the model. The adopted VS were compared in the model with three alternative VS scenarios in terms of the CAFI. Vaccination coverage varied among villages but was generally low (between 1 and 48 %; median 14 %). Under the adopted VS, the CAFI predicted for the villages ranged from 2 to 31 %. It was concluded that despite the enormous effort put into rural household poultry AI vaccination by the Egyptian government, village CAFI is unlikely to be maintained at the levels required to significantly reduce the virus load and restrict transmission. In HPAI-endemic countries that consider AI vaccination as one of the disease control options, the high cost of mass AI vaccination campaigns and their achievable benefits must be compared with other available control measures, which may include targeted vaccination. Achievable vaccination coverage, VE and the different characteristics of commercial and household (village) poultry production are key parameters determining the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of different AI vaccination strategies.

Avian influenza vaccination of poultry and passive case reporting, Egypt

We investigated the influence of a mass poultry vaccination campaign on passive surveillance of highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype (H5N1) outbreaks among poultry in Egypt. Passive reporting dropped during the campaign, although probability of infection remained unchanged. Future poultry vaccination campaigns should consider this negative impact on reporting for adapting surveillance strategies.

Detection of A/H5N1 virus from asymptomatic native ducks in mid-summer in Egypt

In spite of all the efforts to control H5N1 in Egypt, the virus still circulates endemically, causing significant economic losses in the poultry industry and endangering human health. This study aimed to elucidate the role of clinically healthy ducks in perpetuation of H5N1 virus in Egypt in mid-summer, when the disease prevalence is at its lowest level. A total of 927 cloacal swabs collected from 111 household and 71 commercial asymptomatic duck flocks were screened by using a real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Only five scavenging ducks from a native breed in three flocks were found infected with H5N1 virus. This study indicates that H5N1 virus can persist in free-range ducks in hot weather, in contrast to their counterparts confined in household or commercial settings. Surveillance to identify other potential reservoirs is essential.

Rinderpest virus sequestration and use in posteradication era

After the 2011 declaration of rinderpest disease eradication, we surveyed 150 countries about rinderpest virus stocks. Forty-four laboratories in 35 countries held laboratory-attenuated strains, field strains, or diagnostic samples. Vaccine and reagent production and laboratory experiments continued. Rigorous standards are necessary to ensure that stocks are kept under safe conditions.

Ecology of zoonoses: natural and unnatural histories

More than 60% of human infectious diseases are caused by pathogens shared with wild or domestic animals. Zoonotic disease organisms include those that are endemic in human populations or enzootic in animal populations with frequent cross-species transmission to people. Some of these diseases have only emerged recently. Together, these organisms are responsible for a substantial burden of disease, with endemic and enzootic zoonoses causing about a billion cases of illness in people and millions of deaths every year. Emerging zoonoses are a growing threat to global health and have caused hundreds of billions of US dollars of economic damage in the past 20 years. We aimed to review how zoonotic diseases result from natural pathogen ecology, and how other circumstances, such as animal production, extraction of natural resources, and antimicrobial application change the dynamics of disease exposure to human beings. In view of present anthropogenic trends, a more effective approach to zoonotic disease prevention and control will require a broad view of medicine that emphasises evidence-based decision making and integrates ecological and evolutionary principles of animal, human, and environmental factors. This broad view is essential for the successful development of policies and practices that reduce probability of future zoonotic emergence, targeted surveillance and strategic prevention, and engagement of partners outside the medical community to help improve health outcomes and reduce disease threats.

Epidemiology of African swine fever virus

African swine fever virus used to occur primarily in Africa. There had been occasional incursions into Europe or America which apart from the endemic situation on the island of Sardinia always had been successfully controlled. But following an introduction of the virus in 2007, it now has expanded its geographical distribution into Caucasus and Eastern Europe where it has not been controlled, to date. African swine fever affects domestic and wild pig species, and can involve tick vectors. The ability of the virus to survive within a particular ecosystem is defined by the ecology of its wild host populations and the characteristics of livestock production systems, which influence host and vector species densities and interrelationships. African swine fever has high morbidity in naïve pig populations and can result in very high mortality. There is no vaccine or treatment available. Apart from stamping out and movement control, there are no control measures, thereby potentially resulting in extreme losses for producers. Prevention and control of the infection requires good understanding of its epidemiology, so that targeted measures can be instigated.

Comparing national and global data collection systems for reporting, outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI

Determining if outbreak data collected by regional or international organizations can reflect patterns observed in more detailed data collected by national veterinary services is a necessary first step if global databases are to be used for making inference about determinants of disease maintenance and spread and for emergency planning and response. We compared two data sources that capture spatial and temporal information about H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks reported since 2004 in four countries: Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey, and Vietnam. One data source consisted of reports collected as part of each country's national veterinary services surveillance program, while the other data source included reports collected using the Emergency Prevention System for Priority Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases (EMPRES-i) global animal health information system. We computed Spearman rank-order correlation statistics to compare spatial and temporal outbreak distributions, and applied a space-time permutation test to check for consistency between the two data sources. Although EMPRES-i typically captured fewer outbreaks than detailed national reporting data, the overall similarity in space and time, particularly after 2006, reflect the ability of the EMPRES-i system to portray disease patterns comparable to those observed in national data sets. Specifically, we show that the two datasets exhibit higher positive correlations in outbreak timing and reported locations after 2006 when compared to December 2003 through 2006. Strengthening the capacity of global systems to acquire data from national and regional databases will improve global analysis efforts and increase the ability of such systems to rapidly alert countries and the international community of potential disease threats.

Pathogenicity and molecular characterization of emerging porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in Vietnam in 2007

In 2007, Vietnam experienced swine disease outbreaks causing clinical signs similar to the 'porcine high fever disease' that occurred in China during 2006. Analysis of diagnostic samples from the disease outbreaks in Vietnam identified porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) and porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV-2). Additionally, Escherichia coli and Streptococcus equi subspecies zooepidemicus were cultured from lung and spleen, and Streptococcus suis from one spleen sample. Genetic characterization of the Vietnamese PRRSV isolates revealed that this virus belongs to the North American genotype (type 2) with a high nucleotide identity to the recently reported Chinese strains. Amino acid sequence in the nsp2 region revealed 95.7-99.4% identity to Chinese strain HUN4, 68-69% identity to strain VR-2332 and 58-59% identity to strain MN184. A partial deletion in the nsp2 gene was detected; however, this deletion did not appear to enhance the virus pathogenicity in the inoculated pigs. Animal inoculation studies were conducted to determine the pathogenicity of PRRSV and to identify other possible agents present in the original specimens. Pigs inoculated with PRRSV alone and their contacts showed persistent fever, and two of five pigs developed cough, neurological signs and swollen joints. Necropsy examination showed mild to moderate bronchopneumonia, enlarged lymph nodes, fibrinous pericarditis and polyarthritis. PRRSV was re-isolated from blood and tissues of the inoculated and contact pigs. Pigs inoculated with lung and spleen tissue homogenates from sick pigs from Vietnam developed high fever, septicaemia, and died acutely within 72 h, while their contact pigs showed no clinical signs throughout the experiment. Streptococcus equi subspecies zooepidemicus was cultured, and PRRSV was re-isolated only from the inoculated pigs. Results suggest that the cause of the swine deaths in Vietnam is a multifactorial syndrome with PRRSV as a major factor.

Immune protection in animals: the examples of rinderpest and foot-and-mouth disease

Fading immune protection in farmed animals may present a problem, particularly in free-ranging animals in nomadic and transhumant pastoral systems, where animals are not readily available for large-scale blanket vaccination programmes. Two veterinary examples of fading immune protection are discussed: rinderpest and foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Both are devastating viral diseases of cattle that have a huge impact on the farming economy. Both diseases can be controlled by vaccination, although the post-vaccination immunity afforded by the rinderpest vaccine is markedly different from that induced by FMD vaccines. These differences may in part explain the respective advancement of international eradication campaigns: while global eradication of rinderpest is imminent, FMD viruses are still actively circulating in many parts of the world.

Avian influenza vaccination in Egypt: Limitations of the current strategy

Vaccination of domestic poultry against avian influenza (AI) has been used on a large-scale in South East Asia since 2003 and in Egypt since 2006 to fight H5N1 highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics. The decision to use mass vaccination against HPAI in Egypt was taken as an emergency measure based on positive impact of such control measures in Vietnam and the People's Republic of China. However, three years on, the impact on disease control of AI vaccination in Egypt has been very limited. Despite the continuous vaccination of poultry against HPAI, poultry outbreaks and human cases are reported regularly. A recent assessment study highlighted substantial weaknesses in the current immunisation programme and its lack of positive impact on the spread of infection or the maintenance of public health safety. The shortcomings of the vaccination strategy may be attributed in part to a lack of sufficient support in terms of funding and communication, the absence of an efficient monitoring system, and inadequate training of field technicians. The difficulties of blanket vaccinations in semi-commercial farms and household poultry sectors are well known, however, improvements in the industrial sector should be possible though better government controls and greater collaboration with the private sector. AI vaccination should be regarded as just one control tool within a broader disease control program integrating surveillance, outbreak investigation, disease management systems, and the rigorous implementation of bio-security measures. If incorrectly implemented, AI vaccination has a limited impact as a disease control measure. Moreover, without strict bio-security precautions undertaken during its application, farm visits to vaccinate poultry could facilitate the spread of the virus and therefore become a risk factor with important implications on the maintenance of the virus and potential risk for human exposure.

Experiences with vaccination in countries endemically infected with highly pathogenic avian influenza: the Food and Agriculture Organization perspective

Vaccination has been used extensively for the control and prevention of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) caused by viruses of the H5N1 subtype in endemically infected countries. The Food and Agriculture Organization views vaccination as a legitimate aid in the control and prevention of infection and disease caused by HPAI viruses but does not see it as a panacea. Vaccination should be used as just one in a number of measures used together to reduce the effect and risk of infection. It will be required for a considerable time in endemically infected countries. The methods used in Vietnam in implementing blanket vaccination against H5N1 HPAI viruses demonstrate the steps that should be considered when introducing vaccination. So far, it has not been possible to determine the precise effect of vaccination in endemically infected countries because it has been used in combination with other measures. Well managed vaccination campaigns will reduce the incidence of infection in poultry and therefore reduce the risk to humans from these viruses. Vaccination was implemented to protect both poultry and humans, with a major goal being to reduce the risk of emergence of a human influenza pandemic virus. Economic analysis of vaccination should focus on cost-effectiveness of proposed strategies. Ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of vaccination campaigns should take into account the benefits generated in the poultry sector and for human health.

Evidence of infection by H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in healthy wild waterfowl

The potential existence of a wild bird reservoir for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has been recently questioned by the spread and the persisting circulation of H5N1 HPAI viruses, responsible for concurrent outbreaks in migratory and domestic birds over Asia, Europe, and Africa. During a large-scale surveillance programme over Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, we detected avian influenza viruses of H5N2 subtype with a highly pathogenic (HP) viral genotype in healthy birds of two wild waterfowl species sampled in Nigeria. We monitored the survival and regional movements of one of the infected birds through satellite telemetry, providing a rare evidence of a non-lethal natural infection by an HP viral genotype in wild birds. Phylogenetic analysis of the H5N2 viruses revealed close genetic relationships with H5 viruses of low pathogenicity circulating in Eurasian wild and domestic ducks. In addition, genetic analysis did not reveal known gallinaceous poultry adaptive mutations, suggesting that the emergence of HP strains could have taken place in either wild or domestic ducks or in non-gallinaceous species. The presence of coexisting but genetically distinguishable avian influenza viruses with an HP viral genotype in two cohabiting species of wild waterfowl, with evidence of non-lethal infection at least in one species and without evidence of prior extensive circulation of the virus in domestic poultry, suggest that some strains with a potential high pathogenicity for poultry could be maintained in a community of wild waterfowl.

Until recently, the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses responsible for high mortality in some domestic poultry were considered not to have a wild bird reservoir, but to emerge in domestic poultry populations from low pathogenic viruses perpetuated in wild waterbirds. The rapid spread of H5N1 HPAI virus in 2005–2006, with concurrent outbreaks reported in both domestic and wild birds over Asia, Europe, and Africa, has raised concerns about the potential role of migratory birds in the epidemiology of the HPAI infection. Wild birds were sampled in Africa and tested by molecular and virological methods in an attempt to trace the circulation of HPAI viruses. In addition, some of these wild birds were equipped with satellite transmitters to track their local and migratory movements in relation to the potential spread of avian diseases. Avian influenza viruses (H5N2) were detected in wild waterfowl in Nigeria, and were subsequently characterized as highly pathogenic by molecular sequencing (HPAI viral genotype). Movements of one infected bird tracked by satellite telemetry revealed that it survived infection by an HP viral genotype. This result constitutes a rare finding of infection by an AIV with an HPAI viral genotype in healthy wild birds.

The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever

Climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. Climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for Rift Valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. Strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures.

Climate change and animal diseases in South America

Climate strongly affects agriculture and livestock production and influences animal diseases, vectors and pathogens, and their habitat. Global warming trends predicted in the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climatic Change (IPCC) report for South America are likely to change the temporal and geographical distribution of infectious diseases, including those that are vector-borne such as bluetongue, West Nile fever, vesicular stomatitis and New World screwworm. Changes in distribution will be partially modulated by El Niño Southern Oscillation events, which will become more frequent and lead to a greater frequency of droughts and floods. Active disease surveillance for animal diseases in South America, particularly for vector-borne diseases, is very poor. Disease reporting is often lacking, which affects knowledge of disease distribution and impact, and preparedness for early response. Improved reporting for animal diseases that may be affected by climate change is needed for better prevention and intervention measures in susceptible livestock, wildlife and vectors in South America. This requires contributions from multidisciplinary experts, including meteorologists, epidemiologists, biologists and ecologists, and from local communities.

Perspectives on using remotely-sensed imagery in predictive veterinary epidemiology and global early warning systems

Recent disease epidemics and their spread around the world have illustrated the weaknesses of disease surveillance and early warning systems (EWS), both at national and international levels. These diseases continuously threaten the livestock sector on a worldwide basis, some with major public health impact. EWS and accurate forecasting of new outbreaks of epidemic livestock diseases that may also affect wildlife, and the capacity for spread of such diseases to new areas is an essential pre-requisite to their effective containment and control. Because both the geographical and seasonal distribution of many infectious diseases are linked to climate, the possibility of using climaterelated environmental factors as predictive indicators, in association with regular disease surveillance activities, has proven to be relevant when establishing EWS for climate-related diseases. This article reviews the growing importance of using geographical information systems in predictive veterinary epidemiology and its integration into EWS, with a special focus on Rift Valley fever. It shows that, once fully validated in a country or region, this technology appears highly valuable and could play an increasing role in forecasting major epidemics, providing lead time to national veterinary services to take action to mitigate the impact of the disease in a cost-effective manner.