The impact of quality-adjusted life years on evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies: lessons from age-specific vaccination roll-out and variants of concern in Belgium (2020-2022)

BACKGROUND

When formulating and evaluating COVID-19 vaccination strategies, an emphasis has been placed on preventing severe disease that overburdens healthcare systems and leads to mortality. However, more conventional outcomes such as quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and inequality indicators are warranted as additional information for policymakers.

METHODS

We adopted a mathematical transmission model to describe the infectious disease dynamics of SARS-COV-2, including disease mortality and morbidity, and to evaluate (non)pharmaceutical interventions. Therefore, we considered temporal immunity levels, together with the distinct transmissibility of variants of concern (VOCs) and their corresponding vaccine effectiveness. We included both general and age-specific characteristics related to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Our scenario study is informed by data from Belgium, focusing on the period from August 2021 until February 2022, when vaccination for children aged 5-11 years was initially not yet licensed and first booster doses were administered to adults. More specifically, we investigated the potential impact of an earlier vaccination programme for children and increased or reduced historical adult booster dose uptake.

RESULTS

Through simulations, we demonstrate that increasing vaccine uptake in children aged 5-11 years in August-September 2021 could have led to reduced disease incidence and ICU occupancy, which was an essential indicator for implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions and maintaining healthcare system functionality. However, an enhanced booster dose regimen for adults from November 2021 onward could have resulted in more substantial cumulative QALY gains, particularly through the prevention of elevated levels of infection and disease incidence associated with the emergence of Omicron VOC. In both scenarios, the need for non-pharmaceutical interventions could have decreased, potentially boosting economic activity and mental well-being.

CONCLUSIONS

When calculating the impact of measures to mitigate disease spread in terms of life years lost due to COVID-19 mortality, we highlight the impact of COVID-19 on the health-related quality of life of survivors. Our study underscores that disease-related morbidity could constitute a significant part of the overall health burden. Our quantitative findings depend on the specific setup of the interventions under review, which is open to debate or should be contextualised within future situations.

Genomic monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 variants using sentinel SARI hospital surveillance

Background

To support the COVID-19 pandemic response, many countries, including Belgium, implemented baseline genomic surveillance (BGS) programs aiming to early detect and characterize new SARS-CoV-2 variants. In parallel, Belgium maintained a sentinel network of six hospitals that samples patients with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI) and integrated SARS-CoV-2 detection within a broader range of respiratory pathogens. We evaluate the ability of the SARI surveillance to monitor general trends and early signals of viral genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and compare it with the BGS as a reference model.

Methods

Nine-hundred twenty-five SARS-CoV-2 positive samples from patients fulfilling the Belgian SARI definition between January 2020 and December 2022 were sequenced using the ARTIC Network amplicon tiling approach on a MinION platform. Weekly variant of concern (VOC) proportions and types were compared to those that were circulating between 2021 and 2022, using 96,251 sequences of the BGS.

Results

SARI surveillance allowed timely detection of the Omicron (BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5) and Delta (B.1.617.2) VOCs, with no to 2 weeks delay according to the start of their epidemic growth in the Belgian population. First detection of VOCs B.1.351 and P.1 took longer, but these remained minor in Belgium. Omicron BA.3 was never detected in SARI surveillance. Timeliness could not be evaluated for B.1.1.7, being already major at the start of the study period.

Conclusions

Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 using SARI sentinel surveillance has proven to accurately reflect VOCs detected in the population and provides a cost-effective solution for long-term genomic monitoring of circulating respiratory viruses.

Were SARS-CoV-2 self-tests used for their intended purpose? The experience in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Self-testing has been promoted as a means of increasing COVID-19 test coverage. In Belgium, self-testing was recommended as a complement to the formal, provider-administered indications, such as out of courtesy before meeting others and when feared to be infected. More than a year after the introduction of self-testing their place in the test strategy was evaluated.

METHODS

We assessed trends in the number of self-tests sold, the number of positive self-tests reported, the proportion sold self-tests/total tests, and the proportion of all positive tests that were confirmed self-tests. To evaluate the reason why people use self-tests, we used the results of two online surveys among members of the general population: one among 27,397 people, held in April 2021, and one among 22,354 people, held in December 2021.

RESULTS

The use of self-tests became substantial from end 2021 onwards. In the period mid-November 2021 - end-of-June 2022, the average proportion of reported sold self-tests to all COVID-19 tests was 37% and 14% of all positive tests were positive self-tests. In both surveys, the main reported reasons for using a self-test were having symptoms (34% of users in April 2021 and 31% in December 2021) and after a risk contact (27% in both April and December). Moreover, the number of self-tests sold, and the number of positive self-tests reported closely followed the same trend as the provider-administered tests in symptomatic people and high risk-contacts, which reinforces the hypothesis that they were mainly used for these two indications.

CONCLUSIONS

From end 2021 onwards, self-testing covered a significant part of COVID-19 testing in Belgium, which increased without doubt the testing coverage. However, the available data seem to indicate that self-testing was mostly used for indications outside of official recommendations. If and how this affected the control of the epidemic remains unknown.

Global infectious disease risks associated with occupational exposure among non-healthcare workers: a systematic review of the literature

Objectives

Employees in non-healthcare occupations may be in several ways exposed to infectious agents. Improved knowledge about the risks is needed to identify opportunities to prevent work-related infectious diseases. The objective of the current study was to provide an updated overview of the published evidence on the exposure to pathogens among non-healthcare workers. Because of the recent SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks, we also aimed to gain more evidence about exposure to several respiratory tract pathogens.

Methods

Eligible studies were identified in MEDLINE, Embase and Cochrane between 2009 and 8 December 2020. The protocol was registered with International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42019107265). An additional quality assessment was applied according to the Equator network guidelines.

Results

The systematic literature search yielded 4620 papers of which 270 met the selection and quality criteria. Infectious disease risks were described in 37 occupational groups; 18 of them were not mentioned before. Armed forces (n=36 pathogens), livestock farm labourers (n=31), livestock/dairy producers (n=26), abattoir workers (n=22); animal carers and forestry workers (both n=16) seemed to have the highest risk. In total, 111 pathogen exposures were found. Many of these occupational groups (81.1%) were exposed to respiratory tract pathogens.

Conclusion

Many of these respiratory tract pathogens were readily transmitted where employees congregate (workplace risk factors), while worker risk factors seemed to be of increasing importance. By analysing existing knowledge of these risk factors, identifying new risks and susceptible risk groups, this review aimed to raise awareness of the issue and provide reliable information to establish more effective preventive measures.

Immune Trait Shifts in Association With Tobacco Smoking: A Study in Healthy Women

Tobacco smoking is known to impact circulating levels of major immune cells populations, but its effect on specific immune cell subsets remains poorly understood. Here, using high-resolution data from 223 healthy women (25 current and 198 never smokers), we investigated the association between smoking status and 35,651 immune traits capturing immune cell subset frequencies. Our results confirmed that active tobacco smoking is associated with increased frequencies of circulating CD8+ T cells expressing the CD25 activation marker. Moreover, we identified novel associations between smoking status and relative abundances of CD8+ CD25+ memory T cells, CD8+ memory T cells expressing the CCR4 chemokine receptor, and CD4+CD8+ (double-positive) CD25+ T cells. We also observed, in current smokers, a decrease in the relative frequencies of CD4+ T cells expressing the CD38 activation marker and an increase in class-switched memory B cell isotypes IgA, IgG, and IgE. Finally, using data from 135 former female smokers, we showed that the relative frequencies of immune traits associated with active smoking are usually completely restored after smoking cessation, with the exception of subsets of CD8+ and CD8+ memory T cells, which persist partially altered. Our results are consistent with previous findings and provide further evidence on how tobacco smoking shapes leukocyte cell subsets proportion toward chronic inflammation.

Estimates of the rate of infection and asymptomatic COVID-19 disease in a population sample from SE England

BACKGROUND

Understanding of the true asymptomatic rate of infection of SARS-CoV-2 is currently limited, as is understanding of the population-based seroprevalence after the first wave of COVID-19 within the UK. The majority of data thus far come from hospitalised patients, with little focus on general population cases, or their symptoms.

METHODS

We undertook enzyme linked immunosorbent assay characterisation of IgM and IgG responses against SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and nucleocapsid protein of 431 unselected general-population participants of the TwinsUK cohort from South-East England, aged 19-86 (median age 48; 85% female). 382 participants completed prospective logging of 14 COVID-19 related symptoms via the COVID Symptom Study App, allowing consideration of serology alongside individual symptoms, and a predictive algorithm for estimated COVID-19 previously modelled on PCR positive individuals from a dataset of over 2 million.

FINDINGS

We demonstrated a seroprevalence of 12% (51 participants of 431). Of 48 seropositive individuals with full symptom data, nine (19%) were fully asymptomatic, and 16 (27%) were asymptomatic for core COVID-19 symptoms: fever, cough or anosmia. Specificity of anosmia for seropositivity was 95%, compared to 88% for fever cough and anosmia combined. 34 individuals in the cohort were predicted to be Covid-19 positive using the App algorithm, and of those, 18 (52%) were seropositive.

INTERPRETATION

Seroprevalence amongst adults from London and South-East England was 12%, and 19% of seropositive individuals with prospective symptom logging were fully asymptomatic throughout the study. Anosmia demonstrated the highest symptom specificity for SARS-CoV-2 antibody response.

FUNDING

NIHR BRC, CDRF, ZOE global LTD, RST-UKRI/MRC.

High prevalence of epilepsy in an onchocerciasis endemic health zone in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, despite 14 years of community-directed treatment with ivermectin: A mixed-method assessment

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A high epilepsy prevalence in the Aketi health zone was observed despite 14 years of community-directed treatment with ivermectin.

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The high prevalence of OV16 antibodies in children is indicative of high ongoing onchocerciasis transmission.

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High onchocerciasis transmission is the consequence of high exposure to blackflies and low intake of ivermectin.

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Head nodding seizures were observed in 13.8% of the persons with epilepsy.

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Ivermectin coverage needs to be increased and bi-annual distribution should be considered.

Objectives

To investigate the reasons for the high prevalence of epilepsy (>6%) discovered in 2015 in the Aketi health zone in the north of the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Methods

Persons with epilepsy (PWE) diagnosed in a door-to-door survey in 2015 were traced and re-examined in 2017 by a neurologist. Confirmed PWE were paired with matched controls. For onchocerciasis assessment, children 7–10 years old were tested for IgG4 Onchocerca volvulus (OV16) antibodies, a rapid epidemiological mapping of onchocerciasis (REMO) study was performed, and ivermectin coverage was investigated.

Results

Forty-three (61.4%) previously diagnosed PWE were traced; the neurologist confirmed the epilepsy diagnosis in all of them. The overall OV16 positivity rate was 64.5%. Poor ivermectin coverage (55.9%) and a high prevalence of onchocercal nodules (>70%) were observed. The prevalence of epilepsy was 5.7% in Aketi rural town, with nine PWE (13.8%) experiencing head nodding seizures. A case-control study showed that PWE had lower body weight and higher ivermectin coverage in 2017 than healthy controls.

Conclusions

The high prevalence of epilepsy in the Aketi health zone, despite 14 years of community-directed treatment with ivermectin (CDTI), was found to be associated with high onchocerciasis transmission and low ivermectin use. An awareness programme to increase ivermectin coverage and the introduction of a bi-annual CDTI programme should be considered.

Composition of milk fat from cows selected for milk fat globule size and offered either fresh pasture or a corn silage-based diet

The objective of this study was to examine the synthesis and composition of milk produced by dairy cows that secrete either small milk fat globules (SMFG) or large milk fat globules (LMFG), and to study their response to diets known to alter milk composition. Four groups of 3 multiparous dairy cows were assigned to 2 isoenergetic feeding treatments: a corn silage treatment supplemented with soybean meal, and fresh pasture supplemented with cereal concentrate. The 4 groups comprised 2 groups of 3 dairy cows that produced SMFG (3.44 microm) and 2 groups of 3 dairy cows that produced LMFG (4.53 microm). The SMFG dairy cows produced higher yields of milk, protein, and calcium. Nevertheless, their milk had lower fat and protein contents. Both SMFG and LMFG cows secreted similar amounts of milk fat; therefore, higher globule membrane contents in milk fat were observed in SMFG cows. Higher calcium mineralization of the casein micelles in SMFG cows suggests that it may be possible to improve cheese-making properties even if the lower protein content may lead to lower cheese yields. The SMFG cows secrete milk fat with a higher concentration of monounsaturated fatty acids and a lower concentration of short-chain fatty acids. They also have a higher C18:1/C18:0 ratio than LMFG cows. This suggests that SMFG cows have more significant fatty acid elongation and desaturation. The pasture treatment led to an increase in milk and protein yields because of increased energy intake. It also resulted in lower milk fat yield and fat and protein contents. The pasture treatment led to a decrease in milk fat globule size and, as expected, an increase in monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acid contents. However, it induced a decrease in the protein content, and in calcium mineralization of casein micelles, which suggests that this type of milk would be less suitable for making cheese. This study also shows that there is no correlation between the cows, based on milk fat globule size and diet. These results open up possibilities for improving milk fat quality based on milk fat globule size, and composition. The mechanisms involved in milk fat globule secretion are still to be determined.

The Linear Relationship Between the Proportion of Fresh Grass in the Cow Diet, Milk Fatty Acid Composition, and Butter Properties

Fresh grass in the cow diet improves the rheological and nutritional properties of butter. However, the relationship between the proportion of fresh grass in the diet and these properties is still unknown. The objective of the study was to determine the relationship between the proportion of fresh grass in the diet and the properties of milk and butter. Four groups of 2 cows were fed 4 isoenergetic diets characterized by increasing amounts of fresh grass (0, 30, 60, and 100% dry matter of forage) according to a Youden square design. Energy levels were similar among all diets. Thus, no effect of mobilization was observed and the results were only due to the proportion of fresh grass in the diet. Milk yield linearly increased with the proportion of fresh grass in the diet (+0.21 kg/d per 10% of grass). Fat yield remained unchanged. Thus, by effect of dilution, increasing the proportion of fresh grass in the diet induced a linear decrease in fat content. Milk fat globule size decreased by 0.29 mum when the proportion of grass reached 30% in the diet. Increasing the proportion of fresh grass in the diet induced a linear increase in unsaturated fatty acids percentages at the expense of saturated fatty acids. Relationships were +0.38, +0.12, +0.05 and -0.69 points/10% of fresh grass in the diet for C18:1 trans-11, C18:2 cis-9,trans-11, C18:3n-3, and C16:0, respectively. These modifications in fatty acid composition, and in particular in the spreadability index, C16:0/C18:1, were responsible for linear decreases in final melting temperature and solid fat content in butter fat, perceived in sensory analysis by a linear decrease in firmness in mouth. The nutritional value of butter was also linearly improved by the proportion of fresh grass in the diet by halving the atherogenicity index.