Phytic Acid-Promoted Deposition of Gold Nanoparticles with Grafted Cationic Polymer Brushes for the Construction of Synergistic Contact-Killing and Photothermal Bactericidal Coatings

Medical implants are constantly facing the risk of bacterial infections, especially infections caused by multidrug resistant bacteria. To mitigate this problem, gold nanoparticles with alkyl bromide moieties (Au NPs-Br) on the surfaces were prepared. Xenon light irradiation triggered the plasmon effect of Au NPs-Br to induce free radical graft polymerization of 2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate (DMAEMA), leading to the formation of poly(DMAEMA) brush-grafted Au NPs (Au NPs-g-PDM). The Au NPs-g-PDM nanocomposites were conjugated with phytic acid (PA) via electrostatic interaction and van der Waals interaction. The as-formed aggregates were deposited on the titanium (Ti) substrates to form the PA/Au NPs-g-PDM (PAP) hybrid coatings through surface adherence of PA and the gravitational effect. Synergistic bactericidal effects of contact-killing caused by the cationic PDM brushes, and local heating generated by the Au NPs under near-infrared irradiation, conferred strong antibacterial effects on the PAP-deposited Ti (Ti-PAP) substrates. The synergistic bactericidal effects reduced the threshold temperature required for the photothermal sterilization, which in turn minimized the secondary damage to the implant site. The Ti-PAP substrates exhibited 97.34% and 99.97% antibacterial and antiadhesive efficacy, respectively, against Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) and Escherichia coli (E. coli), compared to the control under in vitro antimicrobial assays. Furthermore, the as-constructed Ti-PAP surface exhibited a 99.42% reduction in the inoculated S. aureus under in vivo assays. In addition, the PAP coatings exhibited good biocompatibility in the hemolysis and cytotoxicity assays as well as in the subcutaneous implantation of rats.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Plasmalogens Alter the Aggregation Rate of Transthyretin and Lower Toxicity of Transthyretin Fibrils

Heart tissue can experience a progressive accumulation of transthyretin (TTR), a small four subunit protein that transports holoretinol binding protein and thyroxine. This severe pathology is known as transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy. Numerous experimental studies indicated that the aggregation rate and toxicity of TTR fibrils could be altered by the presence of lipids; however, the role of plasmalogens in this process remains unknown. In this study, we investigate the effect of choline plasmalogens (CPs) with different lengths and saturations of fatty acids (FAs) on TTR aggregation. We found that CPs with saturated and unsaturated FAs strongly suppressed TTR aggregation. We also found that CPs with saturated FAs did not change the morphology of TTR fibrils; however, much thicker fibrillar species were formed in the presence of CPs with unsaturated FAs. Finally, we found that CPs with C16:0, C18:0, and C18:1 FAs substantially lowered the cytotoxicity of TTR fibrils that were formed in their presence.

Engineering Mixing Properties of Fluids by Spatial Modulations

We propose a method to change the effective interaction between two fluids by modulation of their local density distributions with external periodic potentials, whereby the mixing properties can be controlled. This method is applied to a mixture of dilute bosonic gases, and binodal and spinodal curves emerge in the phase diagram. Spinodal decomposition into a mixed-bubble state becomes possible, in which one of the coexisting phases has a finite mixing ratio. A metastable mixture is also realized, which undergoes phase separation via nucleation.

Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality burden of non-COVID-19 lower respiratory infections and aetiologies, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a major global contributor to morbidity and mortality. In 2020-21, non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic reduced not only the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, but also the transmission of other LRI pathogens. Tracking LRI incidence and mortality, as well as the pathogens responsible, can guide health-system responses and funding priorities to reduce future burden. We present estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 of the burden of non-COVID-19 LRIs and corresponding aetiologies from 1990 to 2021, inclusive of pandemic effects on the incidence and mortality of select respiratory viruses, globally, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, incidence, and aetiology attribution for LRI, defined by the GBD as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, not inclusive of COVID-19. We analysed 26 259 site-years of mortality data using the Cause of Death Ensemble model to estimate LRI mortality rates. We analysed all available age-specific and sex-specific data sources, including published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as household surveys, hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and LRI mortality estimates, to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence and prevalence using DisMod-MR 2.1. For aetiology estimation, we analysed multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature data using a network analysis model to produce the proportion of LRI deaths and episodes attributable to the following pathogens: Acinetobacter baumannii, Chlamydia spp, Enterobacter spp, Escherichia coli, fungi, group B streptococcus, Haemophilus influenzae, influenza viruses, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Legionella spp, Mycoplasma spp, polymicrobial infections, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and other viruses (ie, the aggregate of all viruses studied except influenza and RSV), as well as a residual category of other bacterial pathogens.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2021, we estimated 344 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 325-364) incident episodes of LRI, or 4350 episodes (4120-4610) per 100 000 population, and 2·18 million deaths (1·98-2·36), or 27·7 deaths (25·1-29·9) per 100 000. 502 000 deaths (406 000-611 000) were in children younger than 5 years, among which 254 000 deaths (197 000-320 000) occurred in countries with a low Socio-demographic Index. Of the 18 modelled pathogen categories in 2021, S pneumoniae was responsible for the highest proportions of LRI episodes and deaths, with an estimated 97·9 million (92·1-104·0) episodes and 505 000 deaths (454 000-555 000) globally. The pathogens responsible for the second and third highest episode counts globally were other viral aetiologies (46·4 million [43·6-49·3] episodes) and Mycoplasma spp (25·3 million [23·5-27·2]), while those responsible for the second and third highest death counts were S aureus (424 000 [380 000-459 000]) and K pneumoniae (176 000 [158 000-194 000]). From 1990 to 2019, the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate declined by 41·7% (35·9-46·9), from 56·5 deaths (51·3-61·9) to 32·9 deaths (29·9-35·4) per 100 000. From 2019 to 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic and implementation of associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated a 16·0% (13·1-18·6) decline in the global all-age non-COVID-19 LRI mortality rate, largely accounted for by a 71·8% (63·8-78·9) decline in the number of influenza deaths and a 66·7% (56·6-75·3) decline in the number of RSV deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing LRI mortality, but the burden remains high, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. During the COVID-19 pandemic, with its associated non-pharmaceutical interventions, global incident LRI cases and mortality attributable to influenza and RSV declined substantially. Expanding access to health-care services and vaccines, including S pneumoniae, H influenzae type B, and novel RSV vaccines, along with new low-cost interventions against S aureus, could mitigate the LRI burden and prevent transmission of LRI-causing pathogens.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care (UK).

Mitochondrial genome and nuclear ribosomal RNA analysis place Alveonasus lahorensis within the Argasinae and suggest that the genus Alveonasus is paraphyletic

Two major families exist in ticks, the Argasidae and Ixodidae. The Argasidae comprise 2 sub-families, Argasinae and Ornithodorinae. The placement into subfamilies illuminate differences in morphological and molecular systematics and is important since it provides insight into evolutionary divergence within this family. It also identifies fundamental gaps in our understanding of argasid evolution that provide directions for future research. Molecular systematics based on mitochondrial genomics and 18S/28S ribosomal RNA confirmed the placement of various genera and subgenera into the Argasinae: Argas (including Argas and Persicargas), Navis, Ogadenus, Otobius lagophilus, Proknekalia, Secretargas and the Ornithodorinae: Alectorobius, Antricola (including Antricola and Parantricola), Carios, Chiropterargas, Nothoaspis, Ornithodoros (including Microargas, Ornamentum, Ornithodoros sensu strictu, Pavlovskyella), Otobius sensu strictu, Reticulinasus and Subparmatus. The position of Alveonasus remains controversial since traditional taxonomy placed it in the Ornithodorinae, while cladistic and limited molecular analysis placed it in the Argasinae. The current study aimed to resolve the systematic position of Alveonasus using mitochondrial genomic and 18S/28S ribosomal RNA systematics by sequencing the type species Alveonasus lahorensis from Pakistan. In addition, the mitochondrial genomes for Argas reflexus and Alectorobius kelleyi are reported from Germany and the USA, respectively. The systematic data unambiguously place Alveonasus in the Argasinae and also suggest that Alveonasus may be another paraphyletic genus.

Unconventional Reservoir Characterization of Patala Formation, Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Unconventional hydrocarbon exploration is needed in the current oil and gas crisis scenario. Therefore, the development of conditions for unconventional hydrocarbon exploration is needed. In the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), Pakistan, the Patala Formation is one of the potential candidates for this unconventional exploration. It is a proven source rock at the regional level in the Kohat-Potwar sub-basin of UIB. This study aims to evaluate the shale gas potential of the rock in the Minwal-Joyamair area of the sub-basin. Developing a shale rock physics model is important for exploring and developing shale reservoirs due to the difference between unconventional shale and conventional sand reservoirs. These differences include mineral types, mineral characteristics, matrix pores, and fluid properties. To achieve the study's objectives, an integrated strategy provides for evaluating rock physics parameters, petrophysics, and geochemical analyses. This integrated approach indicates that the Patala Formation is a good potential reservoir for shale gas exploration. The Formation has a significant thickness (around 40-50 m), higher total organic carbon content (02-10%), higher brittleness index (0.44-0.56), and relatively shallow depth (2136-3223 m). These research findings suggested that the presence of organic and quartz-rich lithofacies can be considered as highly favorable "sweet spots" for shale-gas exploration in the UIB, Pakistan. Through proper understanding of the spatial and temporal distribution of these "sweet spots", shale-gas exploration can be developed as an effective strategy to exploit shale gas.

Length and saturation of choline plasmalogens alter the aggregation rate of α-synuclein but not the toxicity of amyloid fibrils

Plasmalogens comprise a large fraction of the total phospholipids in plasma membranes. These molecules modulate membrane fluidity, produce inflammatory mediators mitigating effects of metabolic stresses. A growing body of evidence suggests that an onset of Parkinson's disease (PD), a severe neurodegenerative pathology, can be triggered by metabolic changes in plasma membranes. However, the role of plasmalogens in the aggregation of α-synuclein (α-syn), an expected molecular cause of PD, remains unclear. In this study we examine the effect of choline plasmalogens (CPs), unique phospholipids that have a vinyl ether linkage at the sn-1 position of glycerol, on the aggregation rate of α-syn. We found that the length and saturation of fatty acids (FAs) in CPs change rates of protein aggregation. We also found drastic changes in the morphology of α-syn fibrils formed in the presence of different CPs compared to α-syn fibrils grown in the lipid-free environment. At the same time, we did not observe substantial changes in the secondary structure and toxicity of α-syn fibrils formed in the presence of different CPs. These results indicate that the length and saturation of FAs in CPs present in the plasma membrane can alter α-syn stability and modulate its aggregation properties, which, in turn can accelerate or delay the onset of PD.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Mitigating mutual coupling effects on circular polarization for improved bandwidth in MIMO systems: A novel approach

An improved mutual coupling compensation in circularly polarized (CP) multi-input multi-output (MIMO) dielectric resonator antenna (DRA) is presented in this paper. Using trimming approach, the mutual coupling (MC) between closely spaced DRA units at 0.3λ has been significantly reduced while axial ratio performance has been maintained. Mutual coupling reduction is obtained by trimming the DRA to ensure low mutual coupling below -20dB. The exclusive features of the proposed MIMO DRA include wide impedance matching bandwidth (BW), triple band circular polarization, and suppressed MC between the radiating elements. The impedance bandwidth matches perfectly with a triple band's 3 dB axial ratio (AR). It is designed with characteristic mode analysis with good agreement of the measurement that has been obtained. Using the probe feed method, the DRA and patch strip are coupled together to allow bandwidth widening of the pro-posed DRA. An impedance bandwidth of 34% at a lower frequency to around 2% at a higher frequency was achieved in all resonance frequencies. Thus, we refer to our newly designed DRA as a proposed method for effectively reducing the mutual coupling between DRAs. Additionally, the 3 dB AR bandwidth matched at 3.3 GHz, 4.6 GHz, and 6.3 GHz with a percentage of 11.66%, 3.04%, and 2.22% obtained at the three different frequencies. Note that the proposed DRA exhibits low mutual coupling (below -20 dB) at the targeted frequencies, which is suitable for better signal reception for MIMO applications. By computing, the metrics envelop correlation coefficient, diversity gain, channel capacity loss, and total active reflection coefficient, the MIMO performance of the proposed antenna is verified. The experiments show a close result between simulated and computed validation of the proposed DRA.

Geochemical Evaluation of Paleocene Source Rocks in the Kohat Sub-Basin, Pakistan

The Kohat sub-basin is one of the main hydrocarbon-producing sedimentary basins located in the northwest extension of the Indus Basin in Pakistan. It contains numerous proven and potential petroleum from the Cambrian to the Miocene. Conventional petroleum resources have been depleting rapidly over the last couple of years. Therefore, unconventional resources should be explored using a variety of geochemical and geophysical techniques to address the energy demands. Geochemical techniques, including total organic carbon (TOC) assessment, Rock-Eval pyrolysis, organic petrography, and biomarker studies, are essential for evaluating the potential of shale gas reservoirs to delineate future prospects in a basin. The source rock potential of the Paleocene rocks, including the Patala, Lockhart, and Hangu formations of the sub-basin, is evaluated using geochemical analyses on well cuttings from the Tolanj-01 well. The analyses include estimation of total organic carbon (TOC), Rock-Eval pyrolysis, and organic petrography (vitrinite reflectance) to evaluate the organic richness, thermal maturity, kerogen type, hydrocarbon type, and environment of deposition. Other techniques for extractable organic matter (EOM) include solid-liquid chromatographic separation of fractions, gas chromatography (GC-FID)/whole oil chromatography, and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The organic matter (TOC, wt %) analysis reveals that 18 (18) samples of the Hangu formation (0.08-1.8 wt %) show poor values, 12 (12) samples of the Lockhart formation (0.05-0.5 wt %) have poor to fair content, and 26 (26) samples of the Patala formation have poor to fair (0.08-0.19 wt %) TOC content. Rock-Eval pyrolysis studies including hydrogen index, oxygen index, Tmax, quantities of free hydrocarbons (S1, mg/g), and hydrocarbons produced from pyrolysis (S2, mg/g) are determined for the well-cut samples (56) of the Paleocene rocks. The hydrogen index values for the Hangu formation are lower than 200, and those for the Lockhart and Patala formations range between 100 and 250. A maceral analysis is also conducted on these samples, which reveal that the majority of the samples of the Paleocene units present in the basin belong to kerogen types II/III. The thermal maturity of the Hangu and Lockhart formations falls in the late-stage oil window, while that of the Patala formation falls in the peak to late oil window. The genetic potential (GP) for these rock units is also determined based on S1 and S2 values, which reveals that it is generally poor except for a few samples of the Hangu and Lockhart formations, which show fair GP values. For the organic petrography (vitrinite reflectance, R0), one sample from each unit is selected, which shows that the Hangu, Lockhart, and Patala formations fall in the category of the mature oil window with their R0 (%) values being 0.95, 0.89, and 0.82, respectively. The extracts (EOM) from these rock units are also analyzed to assess the depositional settings, biological source input, biodegradation, thermal maturity, etc. The greater values of pristine to phytane (Pr/Ph > 1) ratios for Hangu (1.33), Lockhart (1.23), and Patala (1.8) indicate an intermediate condition (suboxic), while a cross-plot of Pr/n-C17-Ph/n-C18 shows that the organic matter is deposited in a transitional setting. The ratios between C19TCT/C19 TCT + C23 TCT and C24 TeCT/C24TeCT + C23TCT biological source inputs are mainly of marine origin. Similarly, the ternary diagram of regular steranes (C27-C28-C29) shows a greater marine input. Lower values of the carbon preference index (CPI1) for Hangu (0.95), Lockhart (0.91), and Patala (1.04) indicate higher thermal maturity of the Paleocene rocks. Similarly, the methylphenanthrene index (MPI-1) values, Moretane index, and Pr/n-C17 vs Ph/n-C18 plots also show higher thermal maturity for these rock extracts.

Global, regional, and national age-specific progress towards the 2020 milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Global evaluations of the progress towards the WHO End TB Strategy 2020 interim milestones on mortality (35% reduction) and incidence (20% reduction) have not been age specific. We aimed to assess global, regional, and national-level burdens of and trends in tuberculosis and its risk factors across five separate age groups, from 1990 to 2021, and to report on age-specific progress between 2015 and 2020.

METHODS

We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 (GBD 2021) analytical framework to compute age-specific tuberculosis mortality and incidence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021 inclusive). We quantified tuberculosis mortality among individuals without HIV co-infection using 22 603 site-years of vital registration data, 1718 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 825 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, 680 site-years of mortality surveillance data, and 9 site-years of minimally invasive tissue sample (MITS) diagnoses data as inputs into the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling platform. Age-specific HIV and tuberculosis deaths were established with a population attributable fraction approach. We analysed all available population-based data sources, including prevalence surveys, annual case notifications, tuberculin surveys, and tuberculosis mortality, in DisMod-MR 2.1 to produce internally consistent age-specific estimates of tuberculosis incidence, prevalence, and mortality. We also estimated age-specific tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection that is attributable to the independent and combined effects of three risk factors (smoking, alcohol use, and diabetes). As a secondary analysis, we examined the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis mortality without HIV co-infection by comparing expected tuberculosis deaths, modelled with trends in tuberculosis deaths from 2015 to 2019 in vital registration data, with observed tuberculosis deaths in 2020 and 2021 for countries with available cause-specific mortality data.

FINDINGS

We estimated 9·40 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·36 to 10·5) tuberculosis incident cases and 1·35 million (1·23 to 1·52) deaths due to tuberculosis in 2021. At the global level, the all-age tuberculosis incidence rate declined by 6·26% (5·27 to 7·25) between 2015 and 2020 (the WHO End TB strategy evaluation period). 15 of 204 countries achieved a 20% decrease in all-age tuberculosis incidence between 2015 and 2020, eight of which were in western sub-Saharan Africa. When stratified by age, global tuberculosis incidence rates decreased by 16·5% (14·8 to 18·4) in children younger than 5 years, 16·2% (14·2 to 17·9) in those aged 5-14 years, 6·29% (5·05 to 7·70) in those aged 15-49 years, 5·72% (4·02 to 7·39) in those aged 50-69 years, and 8·48% (6·74 to 10·4) in those aged 70 years and older, from 2015 to 2020. Global tuberculosis deaths decreased by 11·9% (5·77 to 17·0) from 2015 to 2020. 17 countries attained a 35% reduction in deaths due to tuberculosis between 2015 and 2020, most of which were in eastern Europe (six countries) and central Europe (four countries). There was variable progress by age: a 35·3% (26·7 to 41·7) decrease in tuberculosis deaths in children younger than 5 years, a 29·5% (25·5 to 34·1) decrease in those aged 5-14 years, a 15·2% (10·0 to 20·2) decrease in those aged 15-49 years, a 7·97% (0·472 to 14·1) decrease in those aged 50-69 years, and a 3·29% (-5·56 to 9·07) decrease in those aged 70 years and older. Removing the combined effects of the three attributable risk factors would have reduced the number of all-age tuberculosis deaths from 1·39 million (1·28 to 1·54) to 1·00 million (0·703 to 1·23) in 2020, representing a 36·5% (21·5 to 54·8) reduction in tuberculosis deaths compared to those observed in 2015. 41 countries were included in our analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tuberculosis deaths without HIV co-infection in 2020, and 20 countries were included in the analysis for 2021. In 2020, 50 900 (95% CI 49 700 to 52 400) deaths were expected across all ages, compared to an observed 45 500 deaths, corresponding to 5340 (4070 to 6920) fewer deaths; in 2021, 39 600 (38 300 to 41 100) deaths were expected across all ages compared to an observed 39 000 deaths, corresponding to 657 (-713 to 2180) fewer deaths.

INTERPRETATION

Despite accelerated progress in reducing the global burden of tuberculosis in the past decade, the world did not attain the first interim milestones of the WHO End TB Strategy in 2020. The pace of decline has been unequal with respect to age, with older adults (ie, those aged >50 years) having the slowest progress. As countries refine their national tuberculosis programmes and recalibrate for achieving the 2035 targets, they could consider learning from the strategies of countries that achieved the 2020 milestones, as well as consider targeted interventions to improve outcomes in older age groups.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Large Unilamellar Vesicles of Phosphatidic Acid Reduce the Toxicity of α-Synuclein Fibrils

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a severe pathology that is caused by a progressive degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in substantia nigra pars compacta as well as other areas in the brain. These neurodegeneration processes are linked to the abrupt aggregation of α-synuclein (α-syn), a small protein that is abundant at presynaptic nerve termini, where it regulates cell vesicle trafficking. Due to the direct interactions of α-syn with cell membranes, a substantial amount of work was done over the past decade to understand the role of lipids in α-syn aggregation. However, the role of phosphatidic acid (PA), a negatively charged phospholipid with a small polar head, remains unclear. In this study, we examined the effect of PA large unilamellar vesicles (LUVs) on α-syn aggregation. We found that PA LUVs with 16:0, 18:0, and 18:1 FAs drastically reduced the toxicity of α-syn fibrils if were present in a 1:1 molar ratio with the protein. Our results also showed that the presence of these vehicles changed the rate of α-syn aggregation and altered the morphology and secondary structure of α-syn fibrils. These results indicate that PA LUVs can be used as a potential therapeutic strategy to reduce the toxicity of α-syn fibrils formed upon PD.

The influence of zwitterionic and anionic phospholipids on protein aggregation

The progressive aggregation of misfolded proteins is the underlying molecular cause of numerous pathologies including Parkinson's disease and injection and transthyretin amyloidosis. A growing body of evidence indicates that protein deposits detected in organs and tissues of patients diagnosed with such pathologies contain fragments of lipid membranes. In vitro experiments also showed that lipid membranes could strongly change the aggregation rate of amyloidogenic proteins, as well as alter the secondary structure and toxicity of oligomers and fibrils formed in their presence. In this review, the effect of large unilamellar vesicles (LUVs) composed of zwitterionic and anionic phospholipids on the aggregation rate of insulin, lysozyme, transthyretin (TTR) and α- synuclein (α-syn) will be discussed. The manuscript will also critically review the most recent findings on the lipid-induced changes in the secondary structure of protein oligomers and fibrils, as well as reveal the extent to which lipids could alter the toxicity of protein aggregates formed in their presence.

Secondary structure and toxicity of lysozyme fibrils are determined by the length and unsaturation of phosphatidic acid

A progressive aggregation of misfolded proteins is a hallmark of numerous pathologies including diabetes Type 2, Alzheimer's disease, and Parkinson's disease. As a result, highly toxic protein aggregates, which are known as amyloid fibrils, are formed. A growing body of evidence suggests that phospholipids can uniquely alter the secondary structure and toxicity of amyloid aggregates. However, the role of phosphatidic acid (PA), a unique lipid that is responsible for cell signaling and activation of lipid-gated ion channels, in the aggregation of amyloidogenic proteins remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the role of the length and degree of unsaturation of fatty acids (FAs) in PA in the structure and toxicity of lysozyme fibrils formed in the presence of this lipid. We found that both the length and saturation of FAs in PA uniquely altered the secondary structure of lysozyme fibrils. However, these structural differences in PA caused very little if any changes in the morphology of lysozyme fibrils. We also utilized cell toxicity assays to determine the extent to which the length and degree of unsaturation of FAs in PA altered the toxicity of lysozyme fibrils. We found that amyloid fibrils formed in the presence of PA with C18:0 FAs exerted significantly higher cell toxicity compared to the aggregates formed in the presence of PA with C16:0 and C18:1 FAs. These results demonstrated that PA can be an important player in the onset and spread of amyloidogenic diseases.

Endophytic Fungi-Mediated Defense Signaling in Maize: Unraveling the Role of WRKY36 in Regulating Immunity against Spodoptera frugiperda

Seed priming with beneficial endophytic fungi is an emerging sustainable strategy for enhancing plant resistance against insect pests. This study examined the effects of Beauvaria bassiana Bb20091317 and Metarhizium rileyi MrCDTLJ1 fungal colonization on maize growth, defence signalling, benzoxazinoid levels and gene expression. The colonization did not adversely affect plant growth but reduced larval weights of Spodoptera frugiperda. Maize leaves treated with M. rileyi exhibited higher levels of jasmonic acid, jasmonoyl-Isoleucine, salicylic acid, and indole acetic acid compared to control. B. bassiana and M. rileyi accelerated phytohormone increase upon S. frugiperda herbivory. Gene expression analysis revealed modulation of benzoxazinoid biosynthesis genes. We further elucidated the immune regulatory role of the transcription factor zmWRKY36 using virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) in maize. zmWRKY36 positively regulates maize immunity against S. frugiperda, likely by interacting with defense-related proteins. Transient overexpression of zmWRKY36 in tobacco-induced cell death, while silencing in maize reduced chitin-triggered reactive oxygen species burst, confirming its immune function. Overall, B. bassiana and M. rileyi successfully colonized maize, impacting larval growth, defense signalling, and zmWRKY36-mediated resistance. This sheds light on maize-endophyte-insect interactions for sustainable plant protection.

Outcomes following surgical fixation of Gustilo-Anderson IIIb open tibial fractures

There is no consensus as to the optimal skeletal fixation method for Gustilo-Anderson IIIb fractures. External fixation methods have previously shown higher rates of superficial infection, whilst internal fixation has shown higher risk of deep infection, but lower risk of other complications. This paper investigates outcomes in open tibial fractures based on fixation method. A retrospective review was performed for patients presenting to an ortho-plastic unit with GA IIIb tibial fractures between June 2013 and October 2021. 85 patients were identified. The most common implant was an intramedullary nail (IMN), used in 29 patients (34.1%); open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) was performed in 16 patients (18.8%). 18 patients (21.2%) were definitively managed with a frame alone. Mean follow-up from was 18 months (2-77). Patients with ORIF needed a mean of 3.37 operations; it was 2.48 for IMN which was significantly different from frames at 5.00 (p=0.000). The mean time to bony union after definitive fixation was 11.4 months. This differed depending on the implant used for fixation, with ORIF at 7.1 months, 10.1 for IMN, and frames at 17.2 months; ORIF significantly differed from frames (p=0.009). Superficial infection was common, seen in 38.8% of patients, and only 3 patients (4%) developed deep infections involving metalwork, with no difference in rates of either based on fixation method This study supports that ORIF has faster healing times, with less time to union compared to frames. It also shows that no implant was superior to another in terms of outcomes.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Smart Resource Allocation in Mobile Cloud Next-Generation Network (NGN) Orchestration with Context-Aware Data and Machine Learning for the Cost Optimization of Microservice Applications

Mobile cloud computing (MCC) provides resources to users to handle smart mobile applications. In MCC, task scheduling is the solution for mobile users' context-aware computation resource-rich applications. Most existing approaches have achieved a moderate service reliability rate due to a lack of instance-centric resource estimations and task offloading, a statistical NP-hard problem. The current intelligent scheduling process cannot address NP-hard problems due to traditional task offloading approaches. To address this problem, the authors design an efficient context-aware service offloading approach based on instance-centric measurements. The revised machine learning model/algorithm employs task adaptation to make decisions regarding task offloading. The proposed MCVS scheduling algorithm predicts the usage rates of individual microservices for a practical task scheduling scheme, considering mobile device time, cost, network, location, and central processing unit (CPU) power to train data. One notable feature of the microservice software architecture is its capacity to facilitate the scalability, flexibility, and independent deployment of individual components. A series of simulation results show the efficiency of the proposed technique based on offloading, CPU usage, and execution time metrics. The experimental results efficiently show the learning rate in training and testing in comparison with existing approaches, showing efficient training and task offloading phases. The proposed system has lower costs and uses less energy to offload microservices in MCC. Graphical results are presented to define the effectiveness of the proposed model. For a service arrival rate of 80%, the proposed model achieves an average 4.5% service offloading rate and 0.18% CPU usage rate compared with state-of-the-art approaches. The proposed method demonstrates efficiency in terms of cost and energy savings for microservice offloading in mobile cloud computing (MCC).

Internet of Vehicles (IoV)-Based Task Scheduling Approach Using Fuzzy Logic Technique in Fog Computing Enables Vehicular Ad Hoc Network (VANET)

The intelligent transportation system (ITS) relies heavily on the vehicular ad hoc network (VANET) and the internet of vehicles (IoVs), which combine cloud and fog to improve task processing capabilities. As a cloud extension, the fog processes' infrastructure is close to VANET, fostering an environment favorable to smart cars with IT equipment and effective task management oversight. Vehicle processing power, bandwidth, time, and high-speed mobility are all limited in VANET. It is critical to satisfy the vehicles' requirements for minimal latency and fast reaction times while offloading duties to the fog layer. We proposed a fuzzy logic-based task scheduling system in VANET to minimize latency and improve the enhanced response time when offloading tasks in the IoV. The proposed method effectively transfers workloads to the fog computing layer while considering the constrained resources of car nodes. After choosing a suitable processing unit, the algorithm sends the job and its associated resources to the fog layer. The dataset is related to crisp values for fog computing for system utilization, latency, and task deadline time for over 5000 values. The task execution, latency, deadline of task, storage, CPU, and bandwidth utilizations are used for fuzzy set values. We proved the effectiveness of our proposed task scheduling framework via simulation tests, outperforming current algorithms in terms of task ratio by 13%, decreasing average turnaround time by 9%, minimizing makespan time by 15%, and effectively overcoming average latency time within the network parameters. The proposed technique shows better results and responses than previous techniques by scheduling the tasks toward fog layers with less response time and minimizing the overall time from task submission to completion.

ANN-Based Intelligent Secure Routing Protocol in Vehicular Ad Hoc Networks (VANETs) Using Enhanced AODV

A vehicular ad hoc network (VANET) is a sophisticated wireless communication infrastructure incorporating centralized and decentralized control mechanisms, orchestrating seamless data exchange among vehicles. This intricate communication system relies on the advanced capabilities of 5G connectivity, employing specialized topological arrangements to enhance data packet transmission. These vehicles communicate amongst themselves and establish connections with roadside units (RSUs). In the dynamic landscape of vehicular communication, disruptions, especially in scenarios involving high-speed vehicles, pose challenges. A notable concern is the emergence of black hole attacks, where a vehicle acts maliciously, obstructing the forwarding of data packets to subsequent vehicles, thereby compromising the secure dissemination of content within the VANET. We present an intelligent cluster-based routing protocol to mitigate these challenges in VANET routing. The system operates through two pivotal phases: first, utilizing an artificial neural network (ANN) model to detect malicious nodes, and second, establishing clusters via enhanced clustering algorithms with appointed cluster heads (CH) for each cluster. Subsequently, an optimal path for data transmission is predicted, aiming to minimize packet transmission delays. Our approach integrates a modified ad hoc on-demand distance vector (AODV) protocol for on-demand route discovery and optimal path selection, enhancing request and reply (RREQ and RREP) protocols. Evaluation of routing performance involves the BHT dataset, leveraging the ANN classifier to compute accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, and loss. The NS-2.33 simulator facilitates the assessment of end-to-end delay, network throughput, and hop count during the path prediction phase. Remarkably, our methodology achieves 98.97% accuracy in detecting black hole attacks through the ANN classification model, outperforming existing techniques across various network routing parameters.

Phospholipids and Cholesterol Determine Molecular Mechanisms of Cytotoxicity of α-Synuclein Oligomers and Fibrils

Progressive loss of dopaminergic (DA) neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta, hypothalamus, and thalamus is a hallmark of Parkinson's disease. Neuronal death is linked to the abrupt aggregation of α-synuclein (α-Syn), a small membrane protein that regulates cell vesicle trafficking. α-Syn aggregation rate, as well as the secondary structure and toxicity of α-Syn fibrils, could be uniquely altered by lipids. However, molecular mechanisms that determine such a remarkable difference in the toxicity of α-Syn fibrils formed in the presence of lipids remain unclear. In this study, we used a set of molecular assays to determine the molecular mechanism by which α-Syn fibrils formed in the presence of phosphatidylcholine (PC), cardiolipin (CL), and cholesterol (Cho) exert cell toxicity. We found that rat dopaminergic cells exposed to α-Syn fibrils formed in the presence of different lipids exert drastically different magnitudes and dynamics of unfolded protein response (UPR) in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER) and mitochondria (MT). Specifically, α-Syn:CL were found to cause the strongest, whereas α-Syn fibrils formed in the absence of lipids had the lowest magnitude of the UPR cell response. We also found the opposite dynamics of the ER- and MT-UPR responses in rat dopaminergic cells exposed to protein aggregates. These results could suggest that facing severe ER stress, dopaminergic cells suppress MT-UPR response, enabling the maximal ATP production to restore their normal physiological function. These findings help to better understand complex mechanisms of cell toxicity of amyloid aggregates and ultimately find neuroprotective drug candidates that will be able to suppress the spread of Parkinson's disease.

First record of Alectorobius coniceps (Ixodoidea: Argasidae) and Dermacentor sp. (Ixodoidea: Ixodidae) in Pakistan

Alectorobius species are soft ticks primarily infesting birds, such as swallows, while Dermacentor species are hard ticks mainly infesting mammals, such as small ruminants. This study for the first time reported on the morphological and molecular bases of two tick species, namely A. coniceps and a Dermacentor sp. in Pakistan. The former species was examined in swallows' nests in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, while the latter species was examined in small ruminants in Balochistan province. In total, 25 ticks were collected, with 14 ticks morphologically identified as A. coniceps (males = 9 and females = 5) and 11 ticks identified as Dermacentor sp. (males = 7 and females = 4). Following morphological identification, molecular identification was gained by obtaining 16S rDNA and cox1 sequences for these ticks. The BLAST results for the 16S rDNA and cox1 sequences from A. coniceps shared a maximum identity of 97.46% and 96.49% with the same species from Malta. The BLAST analysis of the 16S rDNA and cox1 sequences from Dermacentor sp. showed maximum identities of 98.42% and 97.45% with Dermacentor pavlovskyi from China. The phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rDNA and cox1 of A. coniceps showed a close evolutionary relationship with the same species. The case of Dermacentor sp., based on 16S DNA and cox1, indicated a close evolutionary relationship with Dermacentor pavlovskyi from China.

Cross-species immunoprotective antigens (subolesin, ferritin 2 and P0) provide protection against Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato

BACKGROUND

Tick control is mostly hampered by the rise of acaricide-resistant tick populations. Significant efforts have focused on developing alternative control methods, including cross-species protective and/or cocktail-based anti-tick vaccines, to achieve protection against various tick species.

METHODS

In this study, full-length open reading frames encoding subolesin (SUB) from Rhipicephalus microplus and ferritin 2 (FER2) from Hyalomma anatolicum as well as the partial 60S acidic ribosomal protein (P0) from R. microplus were cloned, expressed in Escherichia coli and used as vaccine antigens against Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (R. sanguineus s.l.) infestation in rabbits.

RESULTS

In silico analyses revealed that the SUB, P0 and FER2 proteins were antigenic and displayed limited similarity to the host's homologous proteins. The proteins shared identities of 97.5%, 100% and 89.5% with their SUB, P0 and FER2 R. sanguineus s.l. orthologous sequences, respectively. Antibodies against each recombinant protein cross-recognized the native proteins in the different tissues and developmental stages of R. sanguineus s.l. Overall efficacy of the SUB, FER2 and cocktail (SUB+FER2+P0) vaccines against R. sanguineus s.l. infestation was 86.3%, 95.9% and 90.9%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both mono-antigen and the cocktail anti-tick vaccines affected the biological parameters of R. sanguineus s.l. infestation in the rabbit model, which could be extrapolated to its infested host under natural conditions. These findings support the possibility of using mono-antigenic and cocktail-based vaccines for large-scale anti-tick vaccine development against multiple tick species.

Variations in soil physico-chemical properties, soil stocks, and soil stoichiometry under different soil layers, the major forest region Liupan Mountains of Northwest China

Abstract Liupan Mountains are an important region in China in the context of forest cover and vegetation due to huge afforestation and plantation practices, which brought changes in soil physio-chemical properties, soil stocks, and soil stoichiometries are rarely been understood. The study aims to explore the distribution of soil nutrients at 1-m soil depth in the plantation forest region. The soil samples at five depth increments (0-20, 20-40, 40-60, 60-80, and 80-100 cm) were collected and analyzed for different soil physio-chemical characteristics. The results showed a significant variation in soil bulk density (BD), soil porosity, pH, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and electric conductivity (EC) values. More soil BD (1.41 g cm-3) and pH (6.97) were noticed in the deep soil layer (80-100 cm), while the highest values of porosity (60.6%), EC (0.09 mS cm-1), and CEC (32.9 c mol kg-1) were reflected in the uppermost soil layer (0-20 cm). Similarly, the highest contents of soil organic carbon (SOC), total phosphorus (TP), available phosphorus (AP), total nitrogen (TN), and available potassium (AK) were calculated in the surface soil layer (0-20 cm). With increasing soil depth increment a decreasing trend in the SOC and other nutrient concentration were found, whereas the soil total potassium (TK) produced a negative correlation with soil layer depth. The entire results produced the distribution of SOCs and TNs (stocks) at various soil depths in forestland patterns were 0→20cm > 20→40cm > 40→60cm ≥ 60→80cm ≥ 80→100 cm. Furthermore, the stoichiometric ratios of C, N, and P, the C/P, and N/P ratios showed maximum values (66.49 and 5.46) in 0-20 cm and lowest values (23.78 and 1.91) in 80-100 cm soil layer depth. Though the C/N ratio was statistically similar across the whole soil profile (0-100 cm). These results highlighted that the soil depth increments might largely be attributed to fluctuations in soil physio-chemical properties, soil stocks, and soil stoichiometries. Further study is needed to draw more conclusions on nutrient dynamics, soil stocks, and soil stoichiometry in these forests.

Psychological distress and convergence of own and proxy health-related quality of life in carers of adults with an intellectual disability

BACKGROUND

In adults with an intellectual disability, health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is often measured by proxy report. This cross-sectional study investigated whether the mental health of proxy raters impacts the way they rate HRQoL.

METHODS

In this study, 110 carers of adults with an intellectual disability completed measures of psychological distress (Kessler-6) and HRQoL (EQ-5D-3L) about their own HRQoL and that of the care recipient. Differences between HRQoL scores as rated by the carer about themselves and the care recipient were calculated (convergence scores) and multiple regression models were fitted to estimate the association between proxy psychological distress and convergence scores for subjective/objective HRQoL controlling for support needs of the care recipient, carer age and gender of care recipient.

RESULTS

There was a significant association between psychological distress and subjective HRQoL convergence scores (r = .92; P = 0.03; 95%; CI: -1.76 to -0.09). There was no association between psychological distress and objective HRQoL convergence scores (r = .01; CI -0.02 to 0.001; P = 0.08). The association between psychological distress and HRQoL scores was no longer present when models did not include convergence scores.

CONCLUSIONS

Carers experiencing more psychological distress tended to rate their own and the care recipients' subjective HRQoL more similarly. Objective HRQoL measures did not show this convergence in scores with increasing carer psychological distress. Findings differed when the analysis approach was changed, suggesting the results above require replication in future studies.

Inhibitory effect of thymoquinone from Nigella sativa against SARS-CoV-2 main protease. An in-silico study

Abstract Nigella sativa is known for the safety profile, containing a wealth of useful antiviral compounds. The main protease (Mpro, 3CLpro) of severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is being considered as one of the most attractive viral target, processing the polyproteins during viral pathogenesis and replication. In the current investigation we analyzed the potency of active component, thymoquinone (TQ) of Nigella sativa against SARS-CoV-2 Mpro. The structures of TQ and Mpro was retrieved from PubChem (CID10281) and Protein Data Bank (PDB ID 6MO3) respectively. The Mpro and TQ were docked and the complex was subjected to molecular dynamic (MD) simulations for a period 50ns. Protein folding effect was analyzed using radius of gyration (Rg) while stability and flexibility was measured, using root means square deviations (RMSD) and root means square fluctuation (RMSF) respectively. The simulation results shows that TQ is exhibiting good binding activity against SARS-CoV-2 Mpro, interacting many residues, present in the active site (His41, Cys145) and also the Glu166, facilitating the pocket shape. Further, experimental approaches are needed to validate the role of TQ against virus infection. The TQ is interfering with pocket maintaining residues as well as active site of virus Mpro which may be used as a potential inhibitor against SARS-CoV-2 for better management of COVID-19.

Effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease: a prespecified secondary analysis from the empa-kidney trial

BACKGROUND

Sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease and the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in a wide range of patients. However, their effects on kidney disease progression in some patients with chronic kidney disease are unclear because few clinical kidney outcomes occurred among such patients in the completed trials. In particular, some guidelines stratify their level of recommendation about who should be treated with SGLT2 inhibitors based on diabetes status and albuminuria. We aimed to assess the effects of empagliflozin on progression of chronic kidney disease both overall and among specific types of participants in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA), and included individuals aged 18 years or older with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or with an eGFR of 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher. We explored the effects of 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily versus placebo on the annualised rate of change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR slope), a tertiary outcome. We studied the acute slope (from randomisation to 2 months) and chronic slope (from 2 months onwards) separately, using shared parameter models to estimate the latter. Analyses were done in all randomly assigned participants by intention to treat. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and then followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroups of eGFR included 2282 (34·5%) participants with an eGFR of less than 30 mL/min per 1·73 m2, 2928 (44·3%) with an eGFR of 30 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, and 1399 (21·2%) with an eGFR 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2 or higher. Prespecified subgroups of uACR included 1328 (20·1%) with a uACR of less than 30 mg/g, 1864 (28·2%) with a uACR of 30 to 300 mg/g, and 3417 (51·7%) with a uACR of more than 300 mg/g. Overall, allocation to empagliflozin caused an acute 2·12 mL/min per 1·73 m2 (95% CI 1·83-2·41) reduction in eGFR, equivalent to a 6% (5-6) dip in the first 2 months. After this, it halved the chronic slope from -2·75 to -1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (relative difference 50%, 95% CI 42-58). The absolute and relative benefits of empagliflozin on the magnitude of the chronic slope varied significantly depending on diabetes status and baseline levels of eGFR and uACR. In particular, the absolute difference in chronic slopes was lower in patients with lower baseline uACR, but because this group progressed more slowly than those with higher uACR, this translated to a larger relative difference in chronic slopes in this group (86% [36-136] reduction in the chronic slope among those with baseline uACR <30 mg/g compared with a 29% [19-38] reduction for those with baseline uACR ≥2000 mg/g; ptrend<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

Empagliflozin slowed the rate of progression of chronic kidney disease among all types of participant in the EMPA-KIDNEY trial, including those with little albuminuria. Albuminuria alone should not be used to determine whether to treat with an SGLT2 inhibitor.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim and Eli Lilly.

Economic valuation of selected ecosystem services in Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan

Abstract Payment for ecosystem services (PES) is a mechanism where a consumer is able and ready to pay for the protection of the precise ecosystem service and there must be a provider such as local societies receiving an economic resource, who in return, must have the ability to maintain that ecosystem service. Economic valuation provides basis for payment for ecosystem services. Therefore, objective of this study was to evaluate tourism and carbon stock services of the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT), Pakistan. Two forest zones (Chirpine and Scrub) of Islamabad capital territory (ICT) were selected for estimation of carbon stock and their carbon credits and carbon worth, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted for tourism as a payment for ecosystem services. The method for carbon stock assessment was systematic sampling for Chirpine forest whereas random sampling was done for scrub forest. The size of sampling plot was 17.84 m radius, and a total of 93 plots (49 Scrub zone and 44 Chirpine zone) was taken in the study area. The carbon stock of both zones (Chirpine and Scrub zone) is 22556.75 ton/ha (Chirpine 20105.79, Scrub 2450.96) and total carbon dioxide sequestered by both zone is 82557.72 ton/ha (Chirpine 73587.2, Scrub 8970.52), total carbon credits of both zone is 302160.87 (Chirpine 269328.97, Scrub 32831.9) and the carbon worth of both Chirpine and scrub zone is 4532418.92 $ (Chirpine 4039937.09$, Scrub 492481.83$). Similarly, from tourism point of view, in Shakar Parian, 94% tourists were agreed for PES whereas 6% were disagreed for the PES (the 6% tourist were disagreed to contribute for PES, 40% were agreed for Rs.5 contribution and 54% for Rs.10.). moreover, in Lake view Park, 97% tourists were agreed and 3% are disagreed (In Lake View Park 5% tourists were disagreed for the PES contribution whereas 32% were agreed for Rs.5 and 63% were for Rs.10). In Damen e Koh, around 87% tourist were agreed and 13% were disagreed, (24% were agreed for the contribution of Rs.5 and 63% tourists were agreed for the contribution of Rs.10). In Marghazar Zoo, 93% tourists were agreed (22% were agreed for contribution of Rs.5 and 71% tourist were agreed for contribution of Rs.10) and 7% are disagreed for PES whereas 7% tourists were not agreed for contribution. PES may implement to compensate forest and parks manager to ensure better management of the forests and parks. Due to prime location and scenic beauty of the ICT, it has huge potential for implementation of PES mechanism for sustainable forest management and conservation. Therefore, it is recommended that Capital Development Authority (CDA) Islamabad should devise a plan for implementation of PES in forests and parks of ICT for its sustainable management of recreational and forest resources.

Impact of primary kidney disease on the effects of empagliflozin in patients with chronic kidney disease: secondary analyses of the EMPA-KIDNEY trial

BACKGROUND

The EMPA-KIDNEY trial showed that empagliflozin reduced the risk of the primary composite outcome of kidney disease progression or cardiovascular death in patients with chronic kidney disease mainly through slowing progression. We aimed to assess how effects of empagliflozin might differ by primary kidney disease across its broad population.

METHODS

EMPA-KIDNEY, a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial, was conducted at 241 centres in eight countries (Canada, China, Germany, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, the UK, and the USA). Patients were eligible if their estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was 20 to less than 45 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or 45 to less than 90 mL/min per 1·73 m2 with a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) of 200 mg/g or higher at screening. They were randomly assigned (1:1) to 10 mg oral empagliflozin once daily or matching placebo. Effects on kidney disease progression (defined as a sustained ≥40% eGFR decline from randomisation, end-stage kidney disease, a sustained eGFR below 10 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or death from kidney failure) were assessed using prespecified Cox models, and eGFR slope analyses used shared parameter models. Subgroup comparisons were performed by including relevant interaction terms in models. EMPA-KIDNEY is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03594110.

FINDINGS

Between May 15, 2019, and April 16, 2021, 6609 participants were randomly assigned and followed up for a median of 2·0 years (IQR 1·5-2·4). Prespecified subgroupings by primary kidney disease included 2057 (31·1%) participants with diabetic kidney disease, 1669 (25·3%) with glomerular disease, 1445 (21·9%) with hypertensive or renovascular disease, and 1438 (21·8%) with other or unknown causes. Kidney disease progression occurred in 384 (11·6%) of 3304 patients in the empagliflozin group and 504 (15·2%) of 3305 patients in the placebo group (hazard ratio 0·71 [95% CI 0·62-0·81]), with no evidence that the relative effect size varied significantly by primary kidney disease (pheterogeneity=0·62). The between-group difference in chronic eGFR slopes (ie, from 2 months to final follow-up) was 1·37 mL/min per 1·73 m2 per year (95% CI 1·16-1·59), representing a 50% (42-58) reduction in the rate of chronic eGFR decline. This relative effect of empagliflozin on chronic eGFR slope was similar in analyses by different primary kidney diseases, including in explorations by type of glomerular disease and diabetes (p values for heterogeneity all >0·1).

INTERPRETATION

In a broad range of patients with chronic kidney disease at risk of progression, including a wide range of non-diabetic causes of chronic kidney disease, empagliflozin reduced risk of kidney disease progression. Relative effect sizes were broadly similar irrespective of the cause of primary kidney disease, suggesting that SGLT2 inhibitors should be part of a standard of care to minimise risk of kidney failure in chronic kidney disease.

FUNDING

Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly, and UK Medical Research Council.

Yield, carbon stock, and price dynamics of agroforestry tree species in district Mardan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract A socio-economic study was conducted in district Mardan of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province of Pakistan to get a comprehensive knowledge of the agroforestry tree species grown on the farmlands, their yield, and carbon stock. For yield and carbon stock estimation, data were collected from 59 sample plots by measuring the diameter, height, volume, and biomass of selected agroforestry tree species through D-tape and Haga altimeter. A total of 59 sample plots were inventoried using 2.5 percent sampling intensity. Each sample plot has an area of 0.5 ha, where each tree with a Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) ≥ 5 cm was inventoried. The calculated amount of volume of each tree species was then converted to biomass by multiplying it by the density of wood and the Biomass Expansion Factor (BEF). Total yield and C stock for the selected agroforestry tree species were 11535.2 metric tons and 2102.2 metric tons, respectively. Populus euroamericana is classified as the main tree with 28% growing stock prior to Morus alba by 21%, while Melia azedarach, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Dalbergia sissoo, Acacia nilotica, Salix tetrasperma, and Bombax ceiba consist of 15%, 12%, 8%, 6%,7% and 3% growing stock respectively. Among the species found in different sampling plots the yield of Populus euroamericana was found to be 4747.5 metric tons and it was followed by the species Morus alba found at 2027.3 metric tons. Similarly, the volume for Melia azedarach, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Dalbergia sissoo, Salix spp, Boombox ceiba, and Acacia nilotica was 1532.2 tons,1503 ton,745.7,203.5ton, 555.4ton and 220.5ton, respectively. The carbon stock for Populus euroamericana was calculated as 777.8 ton/ha, while for Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Melia azedarach, Morus alba, Dalbergia sissoo, Acacia nilotica, Salix species, and Bombax ceiba it was calculated as 312.3ton/ha, 272.1ton/ha, 363ton/ha, 245.1ton/ha, 51.4ton/ha, 27.3ton/ha and 53.2ton/ha, respectively. The questionnaire survey conducted for price dynamics showed that the majority of respondents purchase timber from the market for construction. But they use farm trees with low-quality city construction. They dislike using local timber in the conventional building as timber from farm trees is liable to insect attack. Rs. 50,000-100000, (33.33%) of daily sales was concluded from 50% of the trader while (16.7%) of the traders have their sales between Rs.150,000-200,000. Therefore, it is concluded by the authors that both provincial and federal government should promote agroforestry in Pakistan through different incentives because it has the potential to cope with dilemma of deforestation of natural forests and improve the livelihood of local peoples. It is strongly recommended that special projects just like the Ten Billion Tree Afforestation Project (T-BTTP) should be launched for agroforestry plantation and promotion in the country to sustain the ecological harmony and uplift the socio-economic condition of the peoples of Pakistan.

Secondary structure and toxicity of transthyretin fibrils can be altered by unsaturated fatty acids

Transthyretin amyloidosis is a severe pathology characterized by the progressive accumulation of transthyretin (TTR) in various organs and tissues. This highly conserved through vertebrate evolution protein transports thyroid hormone thyroxine. In our bodies, TTR can interact with a large number of molecules, including ω-3 and ω-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) that are broadly used as food supplies. In this study, we investigated the effect of ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs, as well as their fully saturated analog, on TTR aggregation. Our results showed that both ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs strongly decreased the rate of TTR aggregation. We also found that in the presence of PUFAs, TTR formed morphologically different fibrils compared to the lipid-free environment. Nano-Infrared imaging revealed that these fibrils had drastically different secondary structures compared to the secondary structure of TTR aggregates formed in the PUFAs-free environment. Furthermore, TTR fibrils formed in the presence of ω-3 and ω-6 PUFAs exerted significantly lower cell toxicity compared to the fibrils formed in the absence of fatty acids.

Integrated Bulk Segregant Analysis, Fine Mapping, and Transcriptome Revealed QTLs and Candidate Genes Associated with Drought Adaptation in Wild Watermelon

Drought stress has detrimental effects on crop productivity worldwide. A strong root system is crucial for maintaining water and nutrients uptake under drought stress. Wild watermelons possess resilient roots with excellent drought adaptability. However, the genetic factors controlling this trait remain uninvestigated. In this study, we conducted a bulk segregant analysis (BSA) on an F2 population consisting of two watermelon genotypes, wild and domesticated, which differ in their lateral root development under drought conditions. We identified two quantitative trait loci (qNLR_Dr. Chr01 and qNLR_Dr. Chr02) associated with the lateral root response to drought. Furthermore, we determined that a small region (0.93 Mb in qNLR_Dr. Chr01) is closely linked to drought adaptation through quantitative trait loci (QTL) validation and fine mapping. Transcriptome analysis of the parent roots under drought stress revealed unique effects on numerous genes in the sensitive genotype but not in the tolerant genotype. By integrating BSA, fine mapping, and the transcriptome, we identified six genes, namely L-Ascorbate Oxidase (AO), Cellulose Synthase-Interactive Protein 1 (CSI1), Late Embryogenesis Abundant Protein (LEA), Zinc-Finger Homeodomain Protein 2 (ZHD2), Pericycle Factor Type-A 5 (PFA5), and bZIP transcription factor 53-like (bZIP53-like), that might be involved in the drought adaptation. Our findings provide valuable QTLs and genes for marker-assisted selection in improving water-use efficiency and drought tolerance in watermelon. They also lay the groundwork for the genetic manipulation of drought-adapting genes in watermelon and other Cucurbitacea species.

First report of spotted fever group Rickettsia aeschlimannii in Hyalomma turanicum, Haemaphysalis bispinosa, and Haemaphysalis montgomeryi infesting domestic animals: updates on the epidemiology of tick-borne Rickettsia aeschlimannii

Tick-borne Rickettsia spp. have long been known as causative agents for zoonotic diseases. We have previously characterized Rickettsia spp. in different ticks infesting a broad range of hosts in Pakistan; however, knowledge regarding Rickettsia aeschlimannii in Haemaphysalis and Hyalomma ticks is missing. This study aimed to obtain a better understanding about R. aeschlimannii in Pakistan and update the knowledge about its worldwide epidemiology. Among 369 examined domestic animals, 247 (66%) were infested by 872 ticks. Collected ticks were morphologically delineated into three genera, namely, Rhipicephalus, Hyalomma, and Haemaphysalis. Adult females were the most prevalent (number ₌ 376, 43.1%), followed by nymphs (303, 34.74%) and males (193, 22.13%). Overall, genomic DNA samples of 223 tick were isolated and screened for Rickettsia spp. by the amplification of rickettsial gltA, ompA, and ompB partial genes using conventional PCR. Rickettsial DNA was detected in 8 of 223 (3.58%) ticks including nymphs (5 of 122, 4.0%) and adult females (3 of 86, 3.48%). The rickettsial gltA, ompA, and ompB sequences were detected in Hyalomma turanicum (2 nymphs and 1 adult female), Haemaphysalis bispinosa (1 nymph and 1 adult female), and Haemaphysalis montgomeryi (2 nymphs and 1 adult female). These rickettsial sequences showed 99.71-100% identity with R. aeschlimannii and phylogenetically clustered with the same species. None of the tested Rhipicephalus microplus, Hyalomma isaaci, Hyalomma scupense, Rhipicephalus turanicus, Hyalomma anatolicum, Rhipicephalus haemaphysaloides, Rhipicephalus sanguineus, Haemaphysalis cornupunctata, and Haemaphysalis sulcata ticks were found positive for rickettsial DNA. Comprehensive surveillance studies should be adopted to update the knowledge regarding tick-borne zoonotic Rickettsia species, evaluate their risks to humans and livestock, and investigate the unexamined cases of illness after tick bite among livestock holders in the country.

Cholesterol and Sphingomyelin Uniquely Alter the Rate of Transthyretin Aggregation and Decrease the Toxicity of Amyloid Fibrils

Transthyretin (TTR) is a small tetrameric protein that aggregates, forming highly toxic oligomers and fibrils. In the blood and cerebrospinal fluid, TTR can interact with various biomolecules, phospho- and sphingolipids, and cholesterol on the red blood cell plasma membrane. However, the role of these molecules in TTR aggregation remains unclear. In this study, we investigated the extent to which phosphatidylcholine (PC), sphingomyelin (SM), and cholesterol (Cho), important components of plasma membranes, could alter the rate of TTR aggregation. We found that PC and SM inhibited TTR aggregation whereas Cho strongly accelerated it. The presence of these lipids during the stage of protein aggregation uniquely altered the morphology and secondary structure of the TTR fibrils, which changed the toxicity of these protein aggregates. These results suggest that interactions of TTR with red blood cells, whose membranes are rich with these lipids, can trigger irreversible aggregation of TTR and cause transthyretin amyloidosis.

Isolation, identification and antimicrobial susceptibility of the bacteria isolated from Hyalomma dromedarii infesting camels in Al-Jouf province, Saudi Arabia

Ticks are important ectoparasites that transmit various pathogens causing morbidity and mortality in humans and animals. Saudi Arabia faces several challenges that can contribute to the emergence and spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) bacteria. These challenges require collaborative efforts to successfully achieve significant control of AMR in the country. The present study aims to isolate bacteria from camels' tick Hyalomma dromedarii in Al-Jouf province to identify and determine these isolates' antimicrobial susceptibilities. Forty-nine ticks were collected from dromedary camels and morphologically classified as H. dromedarii. Ticks were then homogenized and plated individually, which resulted in the isolation of 55 bacteria. The results showed that the bacterial isolates belong to 20 different species. About 71% (n = 39) of the total isolates were identified as Gram-positive bacteria comprised of 11 different species, while 29% (n = 16) of the total isolates were Gram-negative bacteria comprised of 9 different species. The most prevalent isolate within the total samples was Staphylococcus lentus (22.45%, 11/49), followed by Staphylococcus pseudintermedius (18.37%, 9/49) and Sphingomonas paucimobilis (16.33% 8/49). The antimicrobial susceptibility profile of Gram-positive bacteria showed that 100% (n = 31) were resistant to benzylpenicillin; 90.3% (n = 28) were resistant to oxacillin; 58.1% (n = 18) were resistant to clindamycin; 48.4% (n = 15) were resistant to vancomycin. In addition, 32.3% (n = 10) were resistant to trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole and rifampicin; 25.8% (n = 8) were resistant to erythromycin; 16.1% (n = 5) were resistant to teicoplanin; 6.5% (n = 2) were resistant to tetracycline. All Gram-positive bacteria were 100% susceptible to linezolid, gentamicin, tobramycin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, tigecycline, and nitrofurantoin. In antimicrobial susceptibility tests for the Gram-negative bacteria, 57.14% (n = 8) of the identified bacteria were resistant to ampicillin, whereas 50% (n = 7) were resistant to cefoxitin and ceftazidime. About 28.57% (n = 4) of the Gram-negative bacteria were resistant to ceftriaxone, trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. In addition, 21.43% (n = 3) were resistant to amoxicillin/clavulanic acid and cephalothin; 14.29% (n = 2) were resistant to cefepime and nitrofurantoin; 7.14% (n = 1) were resistant to piperacillin/tazobactam and tigecycline. However, all Gram-negative bacteria were susceptible to other examined antimicrobials. This is the first study that investigates the role of the hard tick as a potential reservoir for AMR pathogens within our region.

Competitive interactions between invasive fall armyworm and Asian corn borer at intraspecific and interspecific level on the same feeding guild

Interspecific competition is an important factor in the population dynamics and geographical distribution of insect populations. Fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, an invasive species, and the Asian corn borer (ACB), Ostrinia furnacalis, a native pest species are major pests on maize in China, posing a threat to maize yield and grain quality. A series of laboratory, greenhouse, and field experiments were conducted to elucidate the competitive interactions between FAW and ACB. In the laboratory experiments, FAW exhibited aggressive behaviors more frequently when compared with ACB, while the latter species exhibited defense behaviors more frequently. Higher intraspecific competition was recorded in the FAW conspecific rather than in ACB, particularly in the 6th larval stage. FAW had a higher interspecific competitive advantage through intraguild predation over ACB, resulting in partial or complete displacement ACB when initially the ratio of the 2 species was 1 : 1. The interspecific competition also had significantly influenced on the population parameters, defensive enzymes, and nutrient of these 2 species. Competitive interaction proved that the response of superoxide, catalase, and soluble protein in FAW were significantly increased, whereas the total sugar content in both species was substantially decreased. Survival rate, and the plant damage that co-infested by both species varied significantly among the sequential combinations under greenhouse and field conditions. FAW consistently exhibited stronger intraspecific aggression than ACB under laboratory and field conditions when co-existing on the same feeding guild. These findings contribute to efforts toward the improvement of integrated pest management programs for FAW, in decision making for invasive and native pests' management strategies to reduce the high risks of FAW and ACB outbreaks.

Green Synthesis and Characterization of Silver Nanoparticles Using Azadirachta indica Seeds Extract: In Vitro and In Vivo Evaluation of Anti-Diabetic Activity

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a non-communicable, life-threatening syndrome that is present all over the world. The use of eco-friendly, cost-effective, and green-synthesised nanoparticles as a medicinal therapy in the treatment of DM is an attractive option.

OBJECTIVE

In the present study, silver nanoparticles (AI-AgNPs) were biosynthesized through the green synthesis method using Azadirachta indica seed extract to evaluate their anti-diabetic potentials.

METHODS

These nanoparticles were characterized by using UV-visible spectroscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectrophotometers (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), DLS, and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The biosynthesized AI-AgNPs and crude extracts of Azadirachta indica seeds were evaluated for anti-diabetic potentials using glucose adsorption assays, glucose uptake by yeast cells assays, and alpha-amylase inhibitory assays.

RESULTS

Al-AgNPs showed the highest activity (75 ± 1.528%), while crude extract showed (63 ± 2.5%) glucose uptake by yeast at 80 µg/mL. In the glucose adsorption assay, the highest activity of Al-AgNPs was 10.65 ± 1.58%, while crude extract showed 8.32 ± 0.258% at 30 mM, whereas in the alpha-amylase assay, Al-AgNPs exhibited the maximum activity of 73.85 ± 1.114% and crude extract 65.85 ± 2.101% at 100 µg/mL. The assay results of AI-AgNPs and crude showed substantial dose-dependent activities. Further, anti-diabetic potentials were also investigated in streptozotocin-induced diabetic mice. Mice were administered with AI-AgNPs (10 to 40 mg/kg b.w) for 30 days.

CONCLUSIONS

The results showed a considerable drop in blood sugar levels, including pancreatic and liver cell regeneration, demonstrating that AI-AgNPs have strong anti-diabetic potential.

Genotoxicity and cytotoxicity potential of organoselenium compounds in human leukocytes in vitro

In the current work, cytotoxicity and genotoxicity of different organoselenium compounds were examined using Trypan blue exclusion and alkaline comet assays with silver staining respectively. Leukocytes were subjected to a 3-hour incubation with organoselenium compounds at concentrations of 1, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 75 μM, or with the control vehicle (DMSO), at a temperature of 37 °C. The viability of the cells was evaluated using the Trypan blue exclusion method, while DNA damage was analyzed through the alkaline comet assay with silver staining. The exposure of leukocytes to different organoselenium compounds including i.e. (Z)-N-(pyridin-2-ylmethylene)-1-(2-((2-(1-((E)-pyridin-2-ylmethyleneamino)ethyl)phenyl)diselanyl)phenyl)ethanamine (C1), 2,2'(1Z,1'E)-(1,1'-(2,2'-diselanediylbis(2,1-phenylene))bis(ethane-1,1-diyl)) bis(azan-1-yl-1-ylidene)bis -methan-1-yl-1-ylidene)diphenol (C2), and dinaphthyl diselenide (NapSe)2, At concentrations ranging from 1 to 5 μM, no significant DNA damage was observed, as indicated by the absence of a noteworthy increase in the Damage Index (DI). Our results suggest that the organoselenium selenium compounds tested were not genotoxic and cytotoxic to human leukocytes in vitro at lower concentration. This study offers further insights into the genotoxicity profile of these organochalcogens in human leukocytes. Their genotoxicity and cytotoxicity effects at higher concentration are probably mediated through reactive oxygen species generation and their ability to catalyze thiol oxidation.

The toxicities of A30P and A53T α-synuclein fibrils can be uniquely altered by the length and saturation of fatty acids in phosphatidylserine

Progressive degeneration of dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain, hypothalamus, and thalamus is a hallmark of Parkinson's disease (PD). Neuronal death is linked to the abrupt aggregation of α-synuclein (α-syn), a small protein that regulates vesicle trafficking in synaptic clefts. Studies of families with a history of PD revealed several mutations in α-syn including A30P and A53T that are linked to the early onset of this pathology. Numerous pieces of evidence indicate that lipids can alter the rate of protein aggregation, as well as modify the secondary structure and toxicity of amyloid oligomers and fibrils. However, the role of lipids in the stability of α-syn mutants remains unclear. In this study, we investigate the effect of phosphatidylserine (PS), an anionic lipid that plays an important role in the recognition of apoptotic cells by macrophages, in the stability of WT, A30P, and A53T α-syn. We found PS with different lengths and saturation of fatty acids accelerated the rate of WT and A30P aggregation. At the same time, the opposite effect was observed for most PS on A53T. We also found that PS with different lengths and saturation of fatty acids change the secondary structure and toxicities of WT, A30P, and A53T fibrils. These results indicate that lipids can play an important role in the onset and spread of familial PD.

Nanoscale structural characterization of transthyretin aggregates formed at different time points of protein aggregation using atomic force microscopy-infrared spectroscopy

Transthyretin (TTR) amyloidosis is a progressive disease characterized by an abrupt aggregation of misfolded protein in multiple organs and tissues TTR is a tetrameric protein expressed in the liver and choroid plexus. Protein misfolding triggers monomerization of TTR tetramers. Next, monomers assemble forming oligomers and fibrils. Although the secondary structure of TTR fibrils is well understood, there is very little if anything is known about the structural organization of TTR oligomers. To end this, we used nano-infrared spectroscopy, also known as atomic force microscopy infrared (AFM-IR) spectroscopy. This emerging technique can be used to determine the secondary structure of individual amyloid oligomers and fibrils. Using AFM-IR, we examined the secondary structure of TTR oligomers formed at the early (3-6 h), middle (9-12 h), and late (28 h) of protein aggregation. We found that aggregating, TTR formed oligomers (Type 1) that were dominated by α-helix (40%) and β-sheet (~30%) together with unordered protein (30%). Our results showed that fibril formation was triggered by another type of TTR oligomers (Type 2) that appeared at 9 h. These new oligomers were primarily composed of parallel β-sheet (55%), with a small amount of antiparallel β-sheet, α-helix, and unordered protein. We also found that Type 1 oligomers were not toxic to cells, whereas TTR fibrils formed at the late stages of protein aggregation were highly cytotoxic. These results show the complexity of protein aggregation and highlight the drastic difference in the protein oligomers that can be formed during such processes.

Botanical biopesticides have an influence on tomato quality through pest control and are cost-effective for farmers in developing countries

Synthetic insecticides heavily applied to manage agricultural pests are highly hazardous to the environment and non-target organisms. Their overuse through repeated treatments in smallholder farming communities is frequent. Botanical biopesticides are ideal for sustainable pest management in agricultural environments by keeping synthetic insecticide use at a minimum. Here we evaluated a locally prepared neem seed extract (NSE) alongside emamectin benzoate against both lepidopteran pests Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) and Spodoptera exigua (Hübner) on tomato Lycopersicon esculentum Mill under natural field conditions in Pakistan. We compared pest severity, fruit injury, quality, marketability, and cost:benefit ratio (CBR) between treatments. The concentration of azadirachtin A in the NSE was 26.5 ppm. NSE at 2% (20 mL/L) and the emamectin benzoate at the recommended field rate in Pakistan were sprayed weekly throughout the fruiting stage. The pest larvae were significantly more abundant on fruits than on flowers and leaves. Fruit injury and losses were significantly more important in untreated control compared to NSE and emamectin benzoate treatments. NSE efficacy varied with respect to the cultivars used and the seasons. Cultivar Eden harboured more pests than Adventa, and emamectin benzoate suppressed more pest individuals than NSE. Both the insecticidal treatments were comparable in terms of marketable yield productions as well as unmarketable, uninjured, and recovered fruit yields. NSE generated a higher CBR (1: 9.26) than emamectin benzoate (1: 3.23). NSE suppressed pests by acting as an antifeedant, similar to its synthetic counterpart. Smallholder growers can thus use NSE as a cost-effective solution in tomato pest management in Pakistan.

Synergism of vesicle trafficking and cytoskeleton during regulation of plant growth and development: A mechanistic outlook

The cytoskeleton is a fundamental component found in all eukaryotic organisms, serving as a critical factor in various essential cyto-biological mechanisms, particularly in the locomotion and morphological transformations of plant cells. The cytoskeleton is comprised of three main components: microtubules (MT), microfilaments (MF), and intermediate filaments (IF). The cytoskeleton plays a crucial role in the process of cell wall formation and remodeling throughout the growth and development of cells. It is a highly organized and regulated network composed of filamentous components. In the basic processes of intracellular transport, such as mitosis, cytokinesis, and cell polarity, the plant cytoskeleton plays a crucial role according to recent studies. The major flaws in the organization of the cytoskeletal framework are at the root of the aberrant organogenesis currently observed in plant mutants. The regulation of protein compartmentalization and abundance within cells is predominantly governed by the process of vesicle/membrane transport, which plays a crucial role in several signaling cascades.The regulation of membrane transport in eukaryotic cells is governed by a diverse array of proteins. Recent developments in genomics have provided new tools to study the evolutionary relationships between membrane proteins in different plant species. It is known that members of the GTPases, COP, SNAREs, Rabs, tethering factors, and PIN families play essential roles in vesicle transport between plant, animal, and microbial species. This Review presents the latest research on the plant cytoskeleton, focusing on recent developments related to the cytoskeleton and summarizing the role of various proteins in vesicle transport. In addition, the report predicts future research direction of plant cytoskeleton and vesicle trafficking, potential research priorities, and provides researchers with specific pointers to further investigate the significant link between cytoskeleton and vesicle trafficking.