Large-scale circulating proteome association study (CPAS) meta-analysis identifies circulating proteins and pathways predicting incident hip fractures

Hip fractures are associated with significant disability, high cost, and mortality. However, the exact biological mechanisms underlying susceptibility to hip fractures remain incompletely understood. In an exploratory search of the underlying biology as reflected through the circulating proteome, we performed a comprehensive Circulating Proteome Association Study (CPAS) meta-analysis for incident hip fractures. Analyses included 6430 subjects from two prospective cohort studies (Cardiovascular Health Study and Trøndelag Health Study) with circulating proteomics data (aptamer-based 5 K SomaScan version 4.0 assay; 4979 aptamers). Associations between circulating protein levels and incident hip fractures were estimated for each cohort using age and sex-adjusted Cox regression models. Participants experienced 643 incident hip fractures. Compared with the individual studies, inverse-variance weighted meta-analyses yielded more statistically significant associations, identifying 23 aptamers associated with incident hip fractures (conservative Bonferroni correction 0.05/4979, P < 1.0 × 10-5). The aptamers most strongly associated with hip fracture risk corresponded to two proteins of the growth hormone/insulin growth factor system (GHR and IGFBP2), as well as GDF15 and EGFR. High levels of several inflammation-related proteins (CD14, CXCL12, MMP12, ITIH3) were also associated with increased hip fracture risk. Ingenuity pathway analysis identified reduced LXR/RXR activation and increased acute phase response signaling to be overrepresented among those proteins associated with increased hip fracture risk. These analyses identified several circulating proteins and pathways consistently associated with incident hip fractures. These findings underscore the usefulness of the meta-analytic approach for comprehensive CPAS in a similar manner as has previously been observed for large-scale human genetic studies. Future studies should investigate the underlying biology of these potential novel drug targets.

Level of Education Modifies Asthma Mortality in Norway and Sweden. The Nordic EpiLung Study

Background and Aim

The relationship between socioeconomic status (SES), asthma and mortality is complex and multifaceted, and it is not established if educational level modifies the association between asthma and mortality. The aim was to study the association between asthma and mortality in Sweden and Norway and to what extent educational level modifies this association.

Participants and Methods

Within the Nordic EpiLung Study, >56,000 individuals aged 30-69 years participated in population-based surveys on asthma and associated risk factors in Sweden and Norway during 2005-2007. Data on educational level and 10-year all-cause mortality were linked by national authorities. The fraction of mortality risk attributable to asthma was calculated, and Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for mortality related to asthma, stratified by educational level.

Results

In total, 5.5% of all deaths was attributed to asthma. When adjusted for potential confounders, the HR for mortality related to asthma was 1.71 (95% CI 1.52-1.93). Those with primary level of education had higher hazard of all-cause death related to asthma than those with tertiary level (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.48-2.18, vs HR 1.39, 95% CI 0.99-1.95).

Conclusion

Asthma was associated with an overall 71% increased all-cause mortality and 5.5% of deaths can be attributed to asthma. Educational levels modified the risk of mortality associated with asthma, with the highest risk among those with primary education.

Agreement between self-reported and registered age at asthma diagnosis in Finland

INTRODUCTION

In epidemiological studies, the age at asthma onset is often defined by patients' self-reported age at diagnosis. The reliability of this report might be questioned. Our objective was to evaluate the agreement between self-reported and registered age at asthma diagnosis and assess features contributing to the agreement.

METHODS

As part of the FinEsS respiratory survey in 2016, randomly selected population samples of 13,435 from Helsinki and 8000 from Western Finland were studied. Self-reported age at asthma diagnosis was compared to age at asthma diagnosis registered in the Finnish register on special reimbursement for asthma medication. The reimbursement right is based on lung function criteria according to GINA and Finnish guidelines. If the difference was less than 5 years, self-reported diagnosis was considered reliable. Features associated with the difference between self-reported and registered age at asthma diagnosis were evaluated.

RESULTS

Altogether 197 subjects from Helsinki and 144 from Western Finland were included. Of these, 61.9% and 77.8%, respectively, reported age at diagnosis reliably. Median difference between self-reported and registered age at diagnoses was - 2.0 years (IQR - 9.0 to 0) in Helsinki and - 1.0 (IQR - 4.3 to 0) in Western Finland indicating earlier self-reported age at diagnosis. More reliable self-report was associated with non-allergic subjects and subjects who reported having asthma diagnosis more recently.

CONCLUSIONS

Agreement between self-reported and registered age at asthma diagnosis was good especially with adult-onset asthma patients. Poor agreement in early-onset asthma could be related to delay in registration due to reimbursement criteria.

Occupational exposure to vapors, gasses, dusts, and fumes in relation to causes of death during 24 years in Helsinki, Finland

PURPOSE

Environmental particulate matter (PM) exposure has been shown to cause excess all-cause and disease-specific mortality. Our aim was to compare disease-specific mortality by estimated occupational exposure to vapors, gasses, dusts, and fumes (VGDF).

METHODS

The data source is the Helsinki part of the population-based FinEsS study on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases including information on age, education level, main occupation, sex, and tobacco smoking combined with death registry information. We compared estimated VGDF exposure to mortality using adjusted competing-risks regression for disease-specific survival analysis for a 24-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Compared to the no-exposure group, the high occupational VGDF exposure group had sub-hazard ratios (sHR) of 1.7 (95% CI 1.3-2.2) for all cardiovascular-related and sHR 2.1 (1.5-3.9) for just coronary artery-related mortality. It also had sHR 1.7 (1.0-2.8) for Alzheimer's or vascular dementia-related mortality and sHR 1.7(1.2-2.4) for all respiratory disease-related mortality.

CONCLUSION

Long-term occupational exposure to VGDF increased the hazard of mortality- to cardiovascular-, respiratory-, and dementia-related causes. This emphasizes the need for minimizing occupational long-term respiratory exposure to dust, gasses, and fumes.

Is there still a social gradient in respiratory symptoms? A population-based Nordic EpiLung-study

BACKGROUND

Respiratory symptoms are a common public health issue that can partly be attributed to preventable risk factors, such as tobacco smoking and occupational exposure, which are more common in individuals with lower socioeconomic status.

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to evaluate the social gradient in respiratory symptoms in Nordic countries.

METHODS

This study included participants aged 30-65 years from five cross-sectional population-based questionnaire surveys in 2016 in Finland and Sweden (N = 25,423) and in 2017-2019 in Norway (N = 27,107). Occupational skill levels 1 and 2 (occupations requiring compulsory education) were combined and compared to skill levels 3 and 4 (occupations requiring upper secondary and tertiary education). Meta-analysis was conducted to obtain pooled age- and sex adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of associations between occupational skill and the respiratory symptoms including recurrent wheeze, dyspnoea, and productive cough.

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis, recurrent wheeze, dyspnoea, and productive cough showed a social gradient. The participants with occupational skill 1 and 2 had higher risk for recurrent wheeze (aOR 1.78, 95% CI 1.34-2.22) and dyspnoea (aOR 1.59, 95% CI 1.29-1.90) compared to occupational skill 3 and 4 in Sweden and Finland. Similarly increased risk was observed for combined assessment of dyspnoea and wheeze (aOR 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07) in Norway. In a meta-analysis including all three countries, the aOR for productive cough was 1.31 95% CI 1.07-1.56.

CONCLUSIONS

Occupations with lower, compared to higher, skill levels were associated with an increased risk of recurrent wheeze, dyspnoea, and productive cough.

A meta-analysis of previous falls and subsequent fracture risk in cohort studies

The relationship between self-reported falls and fracture risk was estimated in an international meta-analysis of individual-level data from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were associated with an increased fracture risk in women and men and should be considered as an additional risk factor in the FRAX® algorithm.

INTRODUCTION

Previous falls are a well-documented risk factor for subsequent fracture but have not yet been incorporated into the FRAX algorithm. The aim of this study was to evaluate, in an international meta-analysis, the association between previous falls and subsequent fracture risk and its relation to sex, age, duration of follow-up, and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

The resource comprised 906,359 women and men (66.9% female) from 46 prospective cohorts. Previous falls were uniformly defined as any fall occurring during the previous year in 43 cohorts; the remaining three cohorts had a different question construct. The association between previous falls and fracture risk (any clinical fracture, osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture) was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and each sex, followed by random-effects meta-analyses of the weighted beta coefficients.

RESULTS

Falls in the past year were reported in 21.4% of individuals. During a follow-up of 9,102,207 person-years, 87,352 fractures occurred of which 19,509 were hip fractures. A previous fall was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture both in women (hazard ratio (HR) 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-1.51) and men (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.41-1.67). The HRs were of similar magnitude for osteoporotic, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture. Sex significantly modified the association between previous fall and fracture risk, with predictive values being higher in men than in women (e.g., for major osteoporotic fracture, HR 1.53 (95% CI 1.27-1.84) in men vs. HR 1.32 (95% CI 1.20-1.45) in women, P for interaction = 0.013). The HRs associated with previous falls decreased with age in women and with duration of follow-up in men and women for most fracture outcomes. There was no evidence of an interaction between falls and BMD for fracture risk. Subsequent risk for a major osteoporotic fracture increased with each additional previous fall in women and men.

CONCLUSIONS

A previous self-reported fall confers an increased risk of fracture that is largely independent of BMD. Previous falls should be considered as an additional risk factor in future iterations of FRAX to improve fracture risk prediction.

Rheumatoid arthritis, disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs and risk of major osteoporotic fracture: prospective data from the HUNT Study, Norway

OBJECTIVES

Rheumatoid arthritis has been associated with increased fracture risk. New treatments have improved the course of the disease substantially, but it is not clear if this influences fracture risk. We examined if rheumatoid arthritis, overall and according to disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs), is associated with a risk of major osteoporotic fractures.

METHODS

Overall, 92 285 participants in the population-based Nord-Trndelag Health Study (HUNT), Norway were included and linked with hospital records for a validated rheumatoid arthritis diagnosis (n=605), type of DMARD treatment and fracture diagnosis. Participants were followed up until the first major osteoporotic fracture, death, emigration or end of follow-up. Cox regression was used to estimate HRs for fractures among individuals with rheumatoid arthritis, overall and by DMARD treatment, compared with participants without rheumatoid arthritis.

RESULTS

A total of 9670 fractures were observed during follow-up, of which 88 were among those with rheumatoid arthritis. Compared with the reference group of participants without rheumatoid arthritis, those with the disease had an HR of fracture of 1.41 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.74). The association was largely similar for users of csDMARDs (HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.81), whereas the association for bDMARD users was weaker and less precise (HR 1.19; 95% CI 0.64 to 2.21).

CONCLUSION

Participants with rheumatoid arthritis had a 40% higher risk of fracture than participants without the disease. A similar fracture risk was observed for conventional synthetic DMARD use, whereas there was weak evidence that the use of biological DMARDs may be associated with a somewhat lower fracture risk.

Previous fracture and subsequent fracture risk: a meta-analysis to update FRAX

A large international meta-analysis using primary data from 64 cohorts has quantified the increased risk of fracture associated with a previous history of fracture for future use in FRAX.

INTRODUCTION

The aim of this study was to quantify the fracture risk associated with a prior fracture on an international basis and to explore the relationship of this risk with age, sex, time since baseline and bone mineral density (BMD).

METHODS

We studied 665,971 men and 1,438,535 women from 64 cohorts in 32 countries followed for a total of 19.5 million person-years. The effect of a prior history of fracture on the risk of any clinical fracture, any osteoporotic fracture, major osteoporotic fracture, and hip fracture alone was examined using an extended Poisson model in each cohort. Covariates examined were age, sex, BMD, and duration of follow-up. The results of the different studies were merged by using the weighted β-coefficients.

RESULTS

A previous fracture history, compared with individuals without a prior fracture, was associated with a significantly increased risk of any clinical fracture (hazard ratio, HR = 1.88; 95% CI = 1.72-2.07). The risk ratio was similar for the outcome of osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.87; 95% CI = 1.69-2.07), major osteoporotic fracture (HR = 1.83; 95% CI = 1.63-2.06), or for hip fracture (HR = 1.82; 95% CI = 1.62-2.06). There was no significant difference in risk ratio between men and women. Subsequent fracture risk was marginally downward adjusted when account was taken of BMD. Low BMD explained a minority of the risk for any clinical fracture (14%), osteoporotic fracture (17%), and for hip fracture (33%). The risk ratio for all fracture outcomes related to prior fracture decreased significantly with adjustment for age and time since baseline examination.

CONCLUSION

A previous history of fracture confers an increased risk of fracture of substantial importance beyond that explained by BMD. The effect is similar in men and women. Its quantitation on an international basis permits the more accurate use of this risk factor in case finding strategies.

An atlas of genetic determinants of forearm fracture

Osteoporotic fracture is among the most common and costly of diseases. While reasonably heritable, its genetic determinants have remained elusive. Forearm fractures are the most common clinically recognized osteoporotic fractures with a relatively high heritability. To establish an atlas of the genetic determinants of forearm fractures, we performed genome-wide association analyses including 100,026 forearm fracture cases. We identified 43 loci, including 26 new fracture loci. Although most fracture loci associated with bone mineral density, we also identified loci that primarily regulate bone quality parameters. Functional studies of one such locus, at TAC4, revealed that Tac4-/- mice have reduced mechanical bone strength. The strongest forearm fracture signal, at WNT16, displayed remarkable bone-site-specificity with no association with hip fractures. Tall stature and low body mass index were identified as new causal risk factors for fractures. The insights from this atlas may improve fracture prediction and enable therapeutic development to prevent fractures.

Underdiagnosis and misclassification of COPD in Sweden - A Nordic Epilung study

INTRODUCTION

The prevalence of COPD tends to level off in populations with decreasing prevalence of smoking but the extent of underdiagnosis in such populations needs further investigation.

AIM

To investigate underdiagnosis and misclassification of COPD with a focus on socio-economy, lifestyle determinants and healthcare utilization.

METHOD

The 1839 participants were selected from two ongoing large-scale epidemiological research programs: The Obstructive Lung Disease in Northern Sweden Studies and the West Sweden Asthma Study. COPDGOLD was defined according to the fixed post-bronchodilator spirometric criteria FEV1/FVC<0.70 in combination with respiratory symptoms.

RESULTS

Among the 128 participants who fulfilled the criteria for COPDGOLD, the underdiagnosis was 83.6% (n = 107) of which 57.9% were men. The undiagnosed participants were younger, had higher FEV1% of predicted and less frequently a family history of bronchitis. One in four of the undiagnosed had utilized healthcare and had more frequently utilized healthcare due to a burden of respiratory symptoms than the general population without COPD. Underdiagnosis was not related to educational level. Misclassification of COPD was characterized by being a woman with low education, ever smoker, having respiratory symptoms and having a previous asthma diagnosis.

CONCLUSION

In the high income country Sweden, the underdiagnosis of COPD was highly prevalent. Reduced underdiagnosis can contribute to risk factor modification, medical treatment and self-management strategies in early stages of the disease, which may prevent disease progression and improve the quality of life among those affected. Therefore, there is a need to increase the use of spirometry in primary care to improve the diagnostic accuracy.

Lung cancer risk discrimination of prediagnostic proteomics measurements compared with existing prediction tools

BACKGROUND

We sought to develop a proteomics-based risk model for lung cancer and evaluate its risk-discriminatory performance in comparison with a smoking-based risk model (PLCOm2012) and a commercially available autoantibody biomarker test.

METHODS

We designed a case-control study nested in 6 prospective cohorts, including 624 lung cancer participants who donated blood samples at most 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis and 624 smoking-matched cancer free participants who were assayed for 302 proteins. We used 470 case-control pairs from 4 cohorts to select proteins and train a protein-based risk model. We subsequently used 154 case-control pairs from 2 cohorts to compare the risk-discriminatory performance of the protein-based model with that of the Early Cancer Detection Test (EarlyCDT)-Lung and the PLCOm2012 model using receiver operating characteristics analysis and by estimating models' sensitivity. All tests were 2-sided.

RESULTS

The area under the curve for the protein-based risk model in the validation sample was 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.70 to 0.81) compared with 0.64 (95% CI = 0.57 to 0.70) for the PLCOm2012 model (Pdifference = .001). The EarlyCDT-Lung had a sensitivity of 14% (95% CI = 8.2% to 19%) and a specificity of 86% (95% CI = 81% to 92%) for incident lung cancer. At the same specificity of 86%, the sensitivity for the protein-based risk model was estimated at 49% (95% CI = 41% to 57%) and 30% (95% CI = 23% to 37%) for the PLCOm2012 model.

CONCLUSION

Circulating proteins showed promise in predicting incident lung cancer and outperformed a standard risk prediction model and the commercialized EarlyCDT-Lung.

The blood proteome of imminent lung cancer diagnosis

Identification of risk biomarkers may enhance early detection of smoking-related lung cancer. We measured between 392 and 1,162 proteins in blood samples drawn at most three years before diagnosis in 731 smoking-matched case-control sets nested within six prospective cohorts from the US, Europe, Singapore, and Australia. We identify 36 proteins with independently reproducible associations with risk of imminent lung cancer diagnosis (all p < 4 × 10-5). These include a few markers (e.g. CA-125/MUC-16 and CEACAM5/CEA) that have previously been reported in studies using pre-diagnostic blood samples for lung cancer. The 36 proteins include several growth factors (e.g. HGF, IGFBP-1, IGFP-2), tumor necrosis factor-receptors (e.g. TNFRSF6B, TNFRSF13B), and chemokines and cytokines (e.g. CXL17, GDF-15, SCF). The odds ratio per standard deviation range from 1.31 for IGFBP-1 (95% CI: 1.17-1.47) to 2.43 for CEACAM5 (95% CI: 2.04-2.89). We map the 36 proteins to the hallmarks of cancer and find that activation of invasion and metastasis, proliferative signaling, tumor-promoting inflammation, and angiogenesis are most frequently implicated.

Evaluation of pre-diagnostic blood protein measurements for predicting survival after lung cancer diagnosis

BACKGROUND

To evaluate whether circulating proteins are associated with survival after lung cancer diagnosis, and whether they can improve prediction of prognosis.

METHODS

We measured up to 1159 proteins in blood samples from 708 participants in 6 cohorts. Samples were collected within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis. We used Cox proportional hazards models to identify proteins associated with overall mortality after lung cancer diagnosis. To evaluate model performance, we used a round-robin approach in which models were fit in 5 cohorts and evaluated in the 6th cohort. Specifically, we fit a model including 5 proteins and clinical parameters and compared its performance with clinical parameters only.

FINDINGS

There were 86 proteins nominally associated with mortality (p < 0.05), but only CDCP1 remained statistically significant after accounting for multiple testing (hazard ratio per standard deviation: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10-1.30, unadjusted p = 0.00004). The external C-index for the protein-based model was 0.63 (95% CI: 0.61-0.66), compared with 0.62 (95% CI: 0.59-0.64) for the model with clinical parameters only. Inclusion of proteins did not provide a statistically significant improvement in discrimination (C-index difference: 0.015, 95% CI: -0.003 to 0.035).

INTERPRETATION

Blood proteins measured within 3 years prior to lung cancer diagnosis were not strongly associated with lung cancer survival, nor did they importantly improve prediction of prognosis beyond clinical information.

FUNDING

No explicit funding for this study. Authors and data collection supported by the US National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654), INCA (France, 2019-1-TABAC-01), Cancer Research Foundation of Northern Sweden (AMP19-962), and Swedish Department of Health Ministry.

Identification of three bacterial species associated with increased appendicular lean mass: the HUNT study

Appendicular lean mass (ALM) associates with mobility and bone mineral density (BMD). While associations between gut microbiota composition and ALM have been reported, previous studies rely on relatively small sample sizes. Here, we determine the associations between prevalent gut microbes and ALM in large discovery and replication cohorts with information on relevant confounders within the population-based Norwegian HUNT cohort (n = 5196, including women and men). We show that the presence of three bacterial species - Coprococcus comes, Dorea longicatena, and Eubacterium ventriosum - are reproducibly associated with higher ALM. When combined into an anabolic species count, participants with all three anabolic species have 0.80 kg higher ALM than those without any. In an exploratory analysis, the anabolic species count is positively associated with femoral neck and total hip BMD. We conclude that the anabolic species count may be used as a marker of ALM and BMD. The therapeutic potential of these anabolic species to prevent sarcopenia and osteoporosis needs to be determined.

Airway Symptoms among Farmers in Central Norway. A Comparative Study of Risks. The HUNT Study

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to compare the risk of developing respiratory symptoms in farmers and other occupational groups over a period of 11 to 23 years.

METHODS

The study includes data from questionnaires and interviews in HUNT1-3 in The Trøndelag Health study (HUNT). In all three surveys, farmers can be identified. Two control groups are used. Control group 1 consists of all HUNT participants who are not farmers or fishermen. Control group 2 consists of occupational groups who presumably have low exposure to dust, chemicals or gases, but similar educational status as farmers. The data are analysed in SPSS 25 (IBM, Armonk NY), with use of frequency analyses and multiple binary logistic regressions.

RESULTS

Our main finding is that healthy farmers have increased risk of developing respiratory symptoms as wheezing or breathlessness over a period of 11 and 23 years. This increased risk is statistically significant after 11 years of follow-up (HUNT1 to HUNT2), and also after 23 years (HUNT1 to HUNT3). Corresponding results regarding wheezing and breathlessness are found for healthy farmers in HUNT2 after 12 years of follow-up in HUNT3. In a subgroup analysis, we find a highly significant difference in both wheezing and shortness of breath when at work, in believing that the symptoms are caused by work, and in having to change jobs or quit because of breathing problems.

CONCLUSION

Farmers have more respiratory symptoms than controls, and the main symptom is attacks of wheezing or breathlessness. Preventive measures such as ventilation and respiratory protection should be implemented on the farm.

Multi-ancestry genome-wide association analyses improve resolution of genes and pathways influencing lung function and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk

Lung-function impairment underlies chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and predicts mortality. In the largest multi-ancestry genome-wide association meta-analysis of lung function to date, comprising 580,869 participants, we identified 1,020 independent association signals implicating 559 genes supported by ≥2 criteria from a systematic variant-to-gene mapping framework. These genes were enriched in 29 pathways. Individual variants showed heterogeneity across ancestries, age and smoking groups, and collectively as a genetic risk score showed strong association with COPD across ancestry groups. We undertook phenome-wide association studies for selected associated variants as well as trait and pathway-specific genetic risk scores to infer possible consequences of intervening in pathways underlying lung function. We highlight new putative causal variants, genes, proteins and pathways, including those targeted by existing drugs. These findings bring us closer to understanding the mechanisms underlying lung function and COPD, and should inform functional genomics experiments and potentially future COPD therapies.

A cross-sectional study of inflammatory markers as determinants of circulating kynurenines in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium

Circulating concentrations of metabolites (collectively called kynurenines) in the kynurenine pathway of tryptophan metabolism increase during inflammation, particularly in response to interferon-gamma (IFN-γ). Neopterin and the kynurenine/tryptophan ratio (KTR) are IFN-γ induced inflammatory markers, and together with C-reactive protein (CRP) and kynurenines they are associated with various diseases, but comprehensive data on the strength of associations of inflammatory markers with circulating concentrations of kynurenines are lacking. We measured circulating concentrations of neopterin, CRP, tryptophan and seven kynurenines in 5314 controls from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). The associations of neopterin, KTR and CRP with kynurenines were investigated using regression models. In mixed models, one standard deviation (SD) higher KTR was associated with a 0.46 SD higher quinolinic acid (QA), and 0.31 SD higher 3-hydroxykynurenine (HK). One SD higher neopterin was associated with 0.48, 0.44, 0.36 and 0.28 SD higher KTR, QA, kynurenine and HK, respectively. KTR and neopterin respectively explained 24.1% and 16.7% of the variation in QA, and 11.4% and 7.5% of HK. CRP was only weakly associated with kynurenines in regression models. In summary, QA was the metabolite that was most strongly associated with the inflammatory markers. In general, the inflammatory markers were most strongly related to metabolites located along the tryptophan-NAD axis, which may support suggestions of increased production of NAD from tryptophan during inflammation.

Design and methodological considerations for biomarker discovery and validation in the Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) Program

The Integrative Analysis of Lung Cancer Etiology and Risk (INTEGRAL) program is an NCI-funded initiative with an objective to develop tools to optimize low-dose CT (LDCT) lung cancer screening. Here, we describe the rationale and design for the Risk Biomarker and Nodule Malignancy projects within INTEGRAL. The overarching goal of these projects is to systematically investigate circulating protein markers to include on a panel for use (i) pre-LDCT, to identify people likely to benefit from screening, and (ii) post-LDCT, to differentiate benign versus malignant nodules. To identify informative proteins, the Risk Biomarker project measured 1161 proteins in a nested-case control study within 2 prospective cohorts (n = 252 lung cancer cases and 252 controls) and replicated associations for a subset of proteins in 4 cohorts (n = 479 cases and 479 controls). Eligible participants had a current or former history of smoking and cases were diagnosed up to 3 years following blood draw. The Nodule Malignancy project measured 1078 proteins among participants with a heavy smoking history within four LDCT screening studies (n = 425 cases diagnosed up to 5 years following blood draw, 430 benign-nodule controls, and 398 nodule-free controls). The INTEGRAL panel will enable absolute quantification of 21 proteins. We will evaluate its performance in the Risk Biomarker project using a case-cohort study including 14 cohorts (n = 1696 cases and 2926 subcohort representatives), and in the Nodule Malignancy project within five LDCT screening studies (n = 675 cases, 680 benign-nodule controls, and 648 nodule-free controls). Future progress to advance lung cancer early detection biomarkers will require carefully designed validation, translational, and comparative studies.

Transplantation of gut microbiota from old mice into young healthy mice reduces lean mass but not bone mass

Aging is associated with low bone and lean mass as well as alterations in the gut microbiota (GM). In this study, we determined whether the reduced bone mass and relative lean mass observed in old mice could be transferred to healthy young mice by GM transplantation (GMT). GM from old (21-month-old) and young adult (5-month-old) donors was used to colonize germ-free (GF) mice in three separate studies involving still growing 5- or 11-week-old recipients and 17-week-old recipients with minimal bone growth. The GM of the recipient mice was similar to that of the donors, demonstrating successful GMT. GM from old mice did not have statistically significant effects on bone mass or bone strength, but significantly reduced the lean mass percentage of still growing recipient mice when compared with recipients of GM from young adult mice. The levels of propionate in the cecum of mice receiving old donor GM were significantly lower than those in mice receiving young adult donor GM. Bacteroides ovatus was enriched in the microbiota of recipient mice harboring GM from young adult donors. The presence of B. ovatus was not only significantly associated with high lean mass percentage in mice, but also with lean mass adjusted for fat mass in the large human HUNT cohort. In conclusion, GM from old mice reduces lean mass percentage but not bone mass in young, healthy, still growing recipient mice. Future studies are warranted to determine whether GM from young mice improves the musculoskeletal phenotype of frail elderly recipient mice.

Reproductive factors in relation to incidence of lung and colorectal cancers in a Norwegian women cohort: the HUNT Study

Background

The roles of reproductive factors in the aetiology of lung and colorectal cancers, among the most common cancers in women, are unclear.

Methods

We followed up 33,314 cancer-free women who participated in the HUNT Study in Norway from 1995-1997 to 2018. A large panel of reproductive factors were self-reported at baseline. Incident lung and colorectal cancer cases were ascertained from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Cox regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjustment for important confounders.

Results

During a median follow-up of 22.2 years, 467 women developed lung cancer including 169 lung adenocarcinoma, 660 developed colon cancer and 211 had rectal cancer. Early menarche (≤12 years) was associated with an increased incidence of lung adenocarcinoma (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.02–2.03). Women with one or no child had an increased colon cancer incidence (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.03–1.54). Hormone therapy appeared to be associated with a decreased incidence of rectal cancer (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.44–1.04). Results in the subgroup of post-menopausal women were similar or strengthened. Other reproductive factors were not related to the risk of lung, colon, and rectal cancers.

Conclusions

Certain reproductive factors might play a role in the aetiology of lung and colorectal cancers. Further investigations are warranted to study if they are causal associations.

Assessment of the genetic and clinical determinants of hip fracture risk: Genome-wide association and Mendelian randomization study

Hip fracture is the clinically most important fracture, but the genetic architecture of hip fracture is unclear. Here, we perform a large-scale hip fracture genome-wide association study meta-analysis and Mendelian randomization study using five cohorts from European biobanks. The results show that five genetic signals associate with hip fractures. Among these, one signal associates with falls, but not with bone mineral density (BMD), while four signals are in loci known to be involved in bone biology. Mendelian randomization analyses demonstrate a strong causal effect of decreased femoral neck BMD and moderate causal effects of Alzheimer's disease and having ever smoked regularly on risk of hip fractures. The substantial causal effect of decreased femoral neck BMD on hip fractures in both young and old subjects and in both men and women supports the use of change in femoral neck BMD as a surrogate outcome for hip fractures in clinical trials.

Update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX: a systematic review of potential cohorts and analysis plan

We describe the collection of cohorts together with the analysis plan for an update of the fracture risk prediction tool FRAX with respect to current and novel risk factors. The resource comprises 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures.

INTRODUCTION

The availability of the fracture risk assessment tool FRAX® has substantially enhanced the targeting of treatment to those at high risk of fracture with FRAX now incorporated into more than 100 clinical osteoporosis guidelines worldwide. The aim of this study is to determine whether the current algorithms can be further optimised with respect to current and novel risk factors.

METHODS

A computerised literature search was performed in PubMed from inception until May 17, 2019, to identify eligible cohorts for updating the FRAX coefficients. Additionally, we searched the abstracts of conference proceedings of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, European Calcified Tissue Society and World Congress of Osteoporosis. Prospective cohort studies with data on baseline clinical risk factors and incident fractures were eligible.

RESULTS

Of the 836 records retrieved, 53 were selected for full-text assessment after screening on title and abstract. Twelve cohorts were deemed eligible and of these, 4 novel cohorts were identified. These cohorts, together with 60 previously identified cohorts, will provide the resource for constructing an updated version of FRAX comprising 2,138,428 participants with a follow-up of approximately 20 million person-years and 116,117 documented incident major osteoporotic fractures. For each known and candidate risk factor, multivariate hazard functions for hip fracture, major osteoporotic fracture and death will be tested using extended Poisson regression. Sex- and/or ethnicity-specific differences in the weights of the risk factors will be investigated. After meta-analyses of the cohort-specific beta coefficients for each risk factor, models comprising 10-year probability of hip and major osteoporotic fracture, with or without femoral neck bone mineral density, will be computed.

CONCLUSIONS

These assembled cohorts and described models will provide the framework for an updated FRAX tool enabling enhanced assessment of fracture risk (PROSPERO (CRD42021227266)).

Undiagnosed diabetes: Prevalence and cardiovascular risk profile in a population-based study of 52,856 individuals. The HUNT Study, Norway

AIMS

We investigated the current extent of undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes and their associated cardiovascular risk profile in a population-based study.

METHODS

All residents aged ≥20 years in the Nord-Trøndelag region, Norway, were invited to the HUNT4 Survey in 2017-2019, and 54% attended. Diagnosed diabetes was self-reported, and in those reporting no diabetes HbA1c was used to classify undiagnosed diabetes (≥48 mmol/mol [6.5%]) and prediabetes (39-47 mmol/mol [5.7%-6.4%]). We estimated the age- and sex-standardized prevalence of these conditions and their age- and sex-adjusted associations with other cardiovascular risk factors.

RESULTS

Among 52,856 participants, the prevalence of diabetes was 6.0% (95% CI 5.8, 6.2), of which 11.1% were previously undiagnosed (95% CI 10.1, 12.2). The prevalence of prediabetes was 6.4% (95% CI 6.2, 6.6). Among participants with undiagnosed diabetes, 58% had HbA1c of 48-53 mmol/mol (6.5%-7.0%), and only 14% (i.e., 0.1% of the total study population) had HbA1c >64 mmol/mol (8.0%). Compared with normoglycaemic participants, those with undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes had higher body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, triglycerides and C-reactive protein but lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (all p < 0.001). Participants with undiagnosed diabetes had less favourable values for every measured risk factor compared with those with diagnosed diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

The low prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes suggests that the current case-finding-based diagnostic practice is well-functioning. Few participants with undiagnosed diabetes had very high HbA1c levels indicating severe hyperglycaemia. Nonetheless, participants with undiagnosed diabetes had a poorer cardiovascular risk profile compared with participants with known or no diabetes.

The combined effect of exposures to vapours, gases, dusts, fumes and tobacco smoke on current asthma

Smoking, exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) and occupational exposure to vapours, gases, dusts or fumes (VGDF) increase asthma symptoms. The impact of combined exposure is less well established. We aimed to evaluate the risk of combined exposure to smoking, ETS and VGDF on the prevalence of current asthma and asthma-related symptoms with a postal survey among a random population of 16,000 adults, aged 20-69 years (response rate 51.5%). The 836 responders with physician-diagnosed asthma were included in the analysis. Of them, 81.9% had current asthma defined as physician-diagnosed asthma with current asthma medication use or reported symptoms. There was a consistently increasing trend in the prevalence of current asthma by increased exposure. The highest prevalence of multiple symptoms was in smokers with VGDF exposure (92.1%) compared to the unexposed (73.9%, p = 0.001). In logistic regression analysis, combined exposure to several exposures increased the risk in all analysed symptoms (p = 0.002-0.007). In conclusion, smoking and exposure to ETS or VGDF increased the prevalence of current asthma and multiple symptoms. The combined exposure carried the highest risk. Preventive strategies are called for to mitigate exposure to tobacco smoke and VGDF.

Genetic Associations and Architecture of Asthma-COPD Overlap

BACKGROUND

Some people have characteristics of both asthma and COPD (asthma-COPD overlap), and evidence suggests they experience worse outcomes than those with either condition alone.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What is the genetic architecture of asthma-COPD overlap, and do the determinants of risk for asthma-COPD overlap differ from those for COPD or asthma?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a genome-wide association study in 8,068 asthma-COPD overlap case subjects and 40,360 control subjects without asthma or COPD of European ancestry in UK Biobank (stage 1). We followed up promising signals (P < 5 × 10^-6) that remained associated in analyses comparing (1) asthma-COPD overlap vs asthma-only control subjects, and (2) asthma-COPD overlap vs COPD-only control subjects. These variants were analyzed in 12 independent cohorts (stage 2).

RESULTS

We selected 31 independent variants for further investigation in stage 2, and discovered eight novel signals (P < 5 × 10^-8) for asthma-COPD overlap (meta-analysis of stage 1 and 2 studies). These signals suggest a spectrum of shared genetic influences, some predominantly influencing asthma (FAM105A, GLB1, PHB, TSLP), others predominantly influencing fixed airflow obstruction (IL17RD, C5orf56, HLA-DQB1). One intergenic signal on chromosome 5 had not been previously associated with asthma, COPD, or lung function. Subgroup analyses suggested that associations at these eight signals were not driven by smoking or age at asthma diagnosis, and in phenome-wide scans, eosinophil counts, atopy, and asthma traits were prominent.

INTERPRETATION

We identified eight signals for asthma-COPD overlap, which may represent loci that predispose to type 2 inflammation, and serious long-term consequences of asthma.

Self-Reported Physician Diagnosed Asthma with COPD is Associated with Higher Mortality than Self-Reported Asthma or COPD Alone - A Prospective 24-Year Study in the Population of Helsinki, Finland

Asthma and COPD are common chronic obstructive respiratory diseases. COPD is associated with increased mortality, but for asthma the results are varying. Their combination has been less investigated, and the results are contradictory. The aim of this prospective study was to observe the overall mortality in obstructive pulmonary diseases and how mortality was related to specific causes using postal questionnaire data. This study included data from 6,062 participants in the FinEsS Helsinki Study (1996) linked to mortality data during a 24-year follow-up. According to self-reported physician diagnosed asthma, COPD, or smoking status, the population was divided into five categories: combined asthma and COPD, COPD alone and asthma alone, ever-smokers without asthma or COPD and never-smokers without asthma or COPD (reference group). For the specific causes of death both the underlying and contributing causes of death were used. Participants with asthma and COPD had the highest hazard of mortality 2.4 (95% CI 1.7-3.5). Ever-smokers without asthma or COPD had a 9.5 (3.7-24.2) subhazard ratio (sHR) related to lower respiratory tract disease specific causes. For asthma, COPD and combined, the corresponding figures were 10.8 (3.4-34.1), 25.0 (8.1-77.4), and 56.1 (19.6-160), respectively. Ever-smokers without asthma or COPD sHR 1.7 (95% CI 1.3-2.5), and participants with combined asthma and COPD 3.5 (1.9-6.3) also featured mortality in association with coronary artery disease. Subjects with combined diseases had the highest hazard of overall mortality and combined diseases also showed the highest hazard of mortality associated with lower respiratory tract causes or coronary artery causes.Abbreviations: CigCigaretteCOPDChronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseCVDCardiovascular diseaseFEV₁Forced Expiratory Volume in one secondFVCForced Vital CapacityFinEsSFinland, Estonia, and Sweden study on chronic obstructive pulmonary diseasesHRHazard RatiosHRSubhazard RatioICD-10International Statistical Classifications of Diseases and Related Health Problems (Version 10).

Prediagnosis Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Lung Cancer Survival: A Pooled Analysis of 11 Cohorts

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the association between physical activity before cancer diagnosis and survival among lung cancer patients. In this pooled analysis of 11 prospective cohorts, we investigated associations of prediagnosis leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) with all-cause and lung cancer-specific mortality among incident lung cancer patients.

METHODS

Using self-reported data on regular engagement in exercise and sports activities collected at study enrollment, we assessed metabolic equivalent hours (MET-h) of prediagnosis LTPA per week. According to the Physical Activity Guidelines for Americans, prediagnosis LTPA was classified into inactivity, less than 8.3 and at least 8.3 MET-h per week (the minimum recommended range). Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence interval (CIs) for all-cause and lung cancer-specific mortality after adjustment for major prognostic factors and lifetime smoking history.

RESULTS

Of 20 494 incident lung cancer patients, 16 864 died, including 13 596 deaths from lung cancer (overall 5-year relative survival rate = 20.9%, 95% CI = 20.3% to 21.5%). Compared with inactivity, prediagnosis LTPA of more than 8.3 MET-h per week was associated with a lower hazard of all-cause mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.88 to 0.99), but not with lung cancer-specific mortality (multivariable-adjusted HR = 0.99, 95% CI = 0.95 to 1.04), among the overall population. Additive interaction was found by tumor stage (Pinteraction = .008 for all-cause mortality and .003 for lung cancer-specific mortality). When restricted to localized cancer, prediagnosis LTPA of at least 8.3 MET-h per week linked to 20% lower mortality: multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.80 (95% CI = 0.67 to 0.97) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI = 0.65 to 0.99) for lung cancer-specific mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Regular participation in LTPA that met or exceeded the minimum Physical Activity Guidelines was associated with reduced hazards of mortality among lung cancer patients, especially those with early stage cancer.

The HUNT study: Association of comorbidity clusters with long-term survival and incidence of exacerbation in a population-based Norwegian COPD cohort

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a heterogeneous disease often viewed as part of a multimorbidity complex. There is a need for better phenotyping of the disease, characterization of its interplay with other comorbidities and its association with long-term outcomes. This study aims to examine how clusters of comorbidities are associated with severe exacerbations and mortality in COPD.

METHODS

Participants with potential COPD were recruited from the second (1995-1997) and third (2006-2008) survey of the HUNT Study and followed up until April 2020. Ten objectively identified comorbidities were clustered using self-organizing maps. Severe COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization were assessed using hospital data. All-cause mortality was collected from national registries. Multivariable Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs for the association between comorbidity clusters and all-cause mortality. Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% CI for the cumulative number of severe exacerbations for each cluster.

RESULTS

Five distinct clusters were identified, including 'less comorbidity', 'psychological', 'cardiovascular', 'metabolic' and 'cachectic' clusters. Using the less comorbidity cluster as reference, the psychological and cachectic clusters were associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.23 [1.04-1.45] and HR 1.83 [1.52-2.20], adjusted for age and sex). The same clusters also had increased risk of exacerbations (unadjusted IRR of 1.24 [95% CI 1.04-1.48] and 1.50 [95% CI 1.23-1.83], respectively).

CONCLUSION

During 25 years of follow-up, individuals in the psychological and cachectic clusters had increased mortality. Furthermore, these clusters were associated with increased risk of severe COPD exacerbations.

Spirometric phenotypes from early childhood to young adulthood: a Chronic Airway Disease Early Stratification study

Background

The prevalences of obstructive and restrictive spirometric phenotypes, and their relation to early-life risk factors from childhood to young adulthood remain poorly understood. The aim was to explore these phenotypes and associations with well-known respiratory risk factors across ages and populations in European cohorts.

Methods

We studied 49 334 participants from 14 population-based cohorts in different age groups (≤10, >10–15, >15–20, >20–25 years, and overall, 5–25 years). The obstructive phenotype was defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁)/forced vital capacity (FVC) z-score less than the lower limit of normal (LLN), whereas the restrictive phenotype was defined as FEV₁/FVC z-score ≥LLN, and FVC z-score <LLN.

Results

The prevalence of obstructive and restrictive phenotypes varied from 3.2–10.9% and 1.8–7.7%, respectively, without clear age trends. A diagnosis of asthma (adjusted odds ratio (aOR=2.55, 95% CI 2.14–3.04), preterm birth (aOR=1.84, 1.27–2.66), maternal smoking during pregnancy (aOR=1.16, 95% CI 1.01–1.35) and family history of asthma (aOR=1.44, 95% CI 1.25–1.66) were associated with a higher prevalence of obstructive, but not restrictive, phenotype across ages (5–25 years). A higher current body mass index (BMI was more often observed in those with the obstructive phenotype but less in those with the restrictive phenotype (aOR=1.05, 95% CI 1.03–1.06 and aOR=0.81, 95% CI 0.78–0.85, per kg·m⁻² increase in BMI, respectively). Current smoking was associated with the obstructive phenotype in participants older than 10 years (aOR=1.24, 95% CI 1.05–1.46).

Conclusion

Obstructive and restrictive phenotypes were found to be relatively prevalent during childhood, which supports the early origins concept. Several well-known respiratory risk factors were associated with the obstructive phenotype, whereas only low BMI was associated with the restrictive phenotype, suggesting different underlying pathobiology of these two phenotypes.

Obstructive and restrictive phenotypes are present from childhood to adulthood but without age trends. Established risk factors for airway disease are associated with the obstructive phenotype, whereas low BMI is associated with the restrictive.https://bit.ly/3BMoMtI

Assessing the role of genome-wide DNA methylation between smoking and risk of lung cancer using repeated measurements: the HUNT study

BACKGROUND

It is unclear if smoking-related DNA methylation represents a causal pathway between smoking and risk of lung cancer. We sought to identify novel smoking-related DNA methylation sites in blood, with repeated measurements, and to appraise the putative role of DNA methylation in the pathway between smoking and lung cancer development.

METHODS

We derived a nested case-control study from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), including 140 incident patients who developed lung cancer during 2009-13 and 140 controls. We profiled 850 K DNA methylation sites (Illumina Infinium EPIC array) in DNA extracted from blood that was collected in HUNT2 (1995-97) and HUNT3 (2006-08) for the same individuals. Epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS) were performed for a detailed smoking phenotype and for lung cancer. Two-step Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to assess the potential causal effect of smoking on DNA methylation as well as of DNA methylation (13 sites as putative mediators) on risk of lung cancer.

RESULTS

The EWAS for smoking in HUNT2 identified associations at 76 DNA methylation sites (P < 5 × 10-8), including 16 novel sites. Smoking was associated with DNA hypomethylation in a dose-response relationship among 83% of the 76 sites, which was confirmed by analyses using repeated measurements from blood that was collected at 11 years apart for the same individuals. Two-step MR analyses showed evidence for a causal effect of smoking on DNA methylation but no evidence for a causal link between DNA methylation and the risk of lung cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

DNA methylation modifications in blood did not seem to represent a causal pathway linking smoking and the lung cancer risk.

Changes in lung function in European adults born between 1884 and 1996 and implications for the diagnosis of lung disease: a cross-sectional analysis of ten population-based studies

BACKGROUND

During the past century, socioeconomic and scientific advances have resulted in changes in the health and physique of European populations. Accompanying improvements in lung function, if unrecognised, could result in the misclassification of lung function measurements and misdiagnosis of lung diseases. We therefore investigated changes in population lung function with birth year across the past century, accounting for increasing population height, and examined how such changes might influence the interpretation of lung function measurements.

METHODS

In our analyses of cross-sectional data from ten European population-based studies, we included individuals aged 20-94 years who were born between 1884 and 1996, regardless of previous respiratory diagnoses or symptoms. FEV₁, forced vital capacity (FVC), height, weight, and smoking behaviour were measured between 1965 and 2016. We used meta-regression to investigate how FEV₁ and FVC (adjusting for age, study, height, sex, smoking status, smoking pack-years, and weight) and the FEV₁/FVC ratio (adjusting for age, study, sex, and smoking status) changed with birth year. Using estimates from these models, we graphically explored how mean lung function values would be expected to progressively deviate from predicted values. To substantiate our findings, we used linear regression to investigate how the FEV₁ and FVC values predicted by 32 reference equations published between 1961 and 2015 changed with estimated birth year.

FINDINGS

Across the ten included studies, we included 243 465 European participants (mean age 51·4 years, 95% CI 51·4-51·5) in our analysis, of whom 136 275 (56·0%) were female and 107 190 (44·0%) were male. After full adjustment, FEV₁ increased by 4·8 mL/birth year (95% CI 2·6-7·0; p<0·0001) and FVC increased by 8·8 mL/birth year (5·7-12·0; p<0·0001). Birth year-related increases in the FEV₁ and FVC values predicted by published reference equations corroborated these findings. This height-independent increase in FEV₁ and FVC across the last century will have caused mean population values to progressively exceed previously predicted values. However, the population mean adjusted FEV₁/FVC ratio decreased by 0·11 per 100 birth years (95% CI 0·09-0·14; p<0·0001).

INTERPRETATION

If current diagnostic criteria remain unchanged, the identified shifts in European values will allow the easier fulfilment of diagnostic criteria for lung diseases such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but the systematic underestimation of lung disease severity.

FUNDING

The European Respiratory Society, AstraZeneca, Chiesi Farmaceutici, GlaxoSmithKline, Menarini, and Sanofi-Genzyme.

The blood metabolome of incident kidney cancer: A case-control study nested within the MetKid consortium

BACKGROUND

Excess bodyweight and related metabolic perturbations have been implicated in kidney cancer aetiology, but the specific molecular mechanisms underlying these relationships are poorly understood. In this study, we sought to identify circulating metabolites that predispose kidney cancer and to evaluate the extent to which they are influenced by body mass index (BMI).

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the association between circulating levels of 1,416 metabolites and incident kidney cancer using pre-diagnostic blood samples from up to 1,305 kidney cancer case-control pairs from 5 prospective cohort studies. Cases were diagnosed on average 8 years after blood collection. We found 25 metabolites robustly associated with kidney cancer risk. In particular, 14 glycerophospholipids (GPLs) were inversely associated with risk, including 8 phosphatidylcholines (PCs) and 2 plasmalogens. The PC with the strongest association was PC ae C34:3 with an odds ratio (OR) for 1 standard deviation (SD) increment of 0.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.83, p = 2.6 × 10-8). In contrast, 4 amino acids, including glutamate (OR for 1 SD = 1.39, 95% CI: 1.20 to 1.60, p = 1.6 × 10-5), were positively associated with risk. Adjusting for BMI partly attenuated the risk association for some-but not all-metabolites, whereas other known risk factors of kidney cancer, such as smoking and alcohol consumption, had minimal impact on the observed associations. A mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis of the influence of BMI on the blood metabolome highlighted that some metabolites associated with kidney cancer risk are influenced by BMI. Specifically, elevated BMI appeared to decrease levels of several GPLs that were also found inversely associated with kidney cancer risk (e.g., -0.17 SD change [ßBMI] in 1-(1-enyl-palmitoyl)-2-linoleoyl-GPC (P-16:0/18:2) levels per SD change in BMI, p = 3.4 × 10-5). BMI was also associated with increased levels of glutamate (ßBMI: 0.12, p = 1.5 × 10-3). While our results were robust across the participating studies, they were limited to study participants of European descent, and it will, therefore, be important to evaluate if our findings can be generalised to populations with different genetic backgrounds.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests a potentially important role of the blood metabolome in kidney cancer aetiology by highlighting a wide range of metabolites associated with the risk of developing kidney cancer and the extent to which changes in levels of these metabolites are driven by BMI-the principal modifiable risk factor of kidney cancer.

Epidemiology of 40 blood biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation, and renal and endothelial function among cancer-free older adults

Imbalances of blood biomarkers are associated with disease, and biomarkers may also vary non-pathologically across population groups. We described variation in concentrations of biomarkers of one-carbon metabolism, vitamin status, inflammation including tryptophan metabolism, and endothelial and renal function among cancer-free older adults. We analyzed 5167 cancer-free controls aged 40-80 years from 20 cohorts in the Lung Cancer Cohort Consortium (LC3). Centralized biochemical analyses of 40 biomarkers in plasma or serum were performed. We fit multivariable linear mixed effects models to quantify variation in standardized biomarker log-concentrations across four factors: age, sex, smoking status, and body mass index (BMI). Differences in most biomarkers across most factors were small, with 93% (186/200) of analyses showing an estimated difference lower than 0.25 standard-deviations, although most were statistically significant due to large sample size. The largest difference was for creatinine by sex, which was - 0.91 standard-deviations lower in women than men (95%CI - 0.98; - 0.84). The largest difference by age was for total cysteine (0.40 standard-deviation increase per 10-year increase, 95%CI 0.36; 0.43), and by BMI was for C-reactive protein (0.38 standard-deviation increase per 5-kg/m2 increase, 95%CI 0.34; 0.41). For 31 of 40 markers, the mean difference between current and never smokers was larger than between former and never smokers. A statistically significant (p < 0.05) association with time since smoking cessation was observed for 8 markers, including C-reactive protein, kynurenine, choline, and total homocysteine. We conclude that most blood biomarkers show small variations across demographic characteristics. Patterns by smoking status point to normalization of multiple physiological processes after smoking cessation.

Does treatment with bisphosphonates protect against fractures in real life? The HUNT study, Norway

Bisphosphonates reduce fractures in randomized controlled trials (RCT); however, there is less information from real life. In our population including 14,990 women and 13,239 men, use of bisphosphonates reduced risk of fractures in hip and forearm in women. The magnitude of the effect was comparable to results from RCT.

INTRODUCTION

The objective was to examine if treatment with bisphosphonates (BPs) was associated with reduced risk of fractures in the hip and forearm in women and men in the general population.

METHODS

In a cohort study based on data from the third wave of the population-based HUNT Study (HUNT3), the fracture registry in Nord-Trøndelag, and the Norwegian Prescription Database, 14,990 women and 13,239 men 50-85 years were followed from the date of participating in HUNT3 (2006-2008) until the date of first fracture in the hip or forearm, death, or end of study (31 December 2012). Hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for hip and forearm fracture according to use of BPs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models with time-dependent exposure. Adjustment for individual FRAX® fracture risk assessment scores was included.

RESULTS

BPs, predominantly alendronate, were used by 9.4% of the women and 1.5% of the men. During a median of 5.2 years of follow-up, 265 women and 133 men had a hip fracture, and 662 women and 127 men had a forearm fracture. Compared with non-users of BPs, the hazard ratios with 95% confidence interval for a fracture among users of BPs adjusted for age and FRAX® were 0.67 (0.52-0.86) for women and 1.13 (0.50-2.57) for men. Among users of glucocorticoids, the corresponding figures were 0.35 (0.19-0.66) and 1.16 (0.33-4.09), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of BPs was associated with reduced risk of fractures in hip and forearm in women, and the magnitude of effect is comparable to results from RCTs.

Lung function and peak oxygen uptake in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phenotypes with and without emphysema

Previous studies of associations of forced expiratory lung volume in one second (FEV₁) with peak oxygen uptake (VO_2peak) in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have not taken sex, age and height related variance of dynamic lung volumes into account. Nor have such demographic spread of spirometric measures been considered in studies comparing VO_2peak between COPD phenotypes characterized by degree of emphysema. We aimed to assess the association of FEV_1Z-score with VO_2peak in COPD (n = 186) and investigate whether this association differs between emphysema (E-COPD) and non-emphysema (NE-COPD) phenotypes. Corresponding assessments using standardized percent predicted FEV₁ (ppFEV₁) were performed for comparison. Additionally, phenotype related differences in VO_2peak were compared using FEV_1Z-score and ppFEV₁ as alternative expressions of FEV₁. E-COPD and NE-COPD were defined by transfer factor of the lung for carbon monoxide below and above lower limits of normal (LLN), respectively. The associations were assessed in linear regression models. One unit reduction in FEV_1Z-score was associated with 1.9 (95% CI 1.4, 2.5) ml/kg/min lower VO_2peak. In stratified analyses, corresponding estimates were 2.2 (95% CI 1.4, 2.9) and 1.2 (95% CI 0.2, 2.2) ml/kg/min lower VO_2peak in E-COPD and NE-COPD, respectively. The association did not differ statistically by COPD phenotype (p-value for interaction = 0.153). Similar estimates were obtained in analyses using standardized ppFEV₁. Compared to NE-COPD, VO_2peak was 2.2 (95% CI 0.8, 3.6) and 2.1 (95% CI 0.8, 3.5) ml/kg/min lower in E-COPD when adjusted for FEV_1Z-score and ppFEV₁, respectively. In COPD, FEV_1Z-score is positively associated with VO_2peak. This association was stronger in E-COPD but did not differ statistically by phenotype. Both the association of FEV₁ with VO_2peak and the difference in VO_2peak comparing COPD phenotypes seems independent of sex, age and height related variance in FEV₁. Mechanisms leading to reduction in FEV₁ may contribute to lower VO_2peak in E-COPD.

Variants associated with HHIP expression have sex-differential effects on lung function

Background: Lung function is highly heritable and differs between the sexes throughout life. However, little is known about sex-differential genetic effects on lung function. We aimed to conduct the first genome-wide genotype-by-sex interaction study on lung function to identify genetic effects that differ between males and females. Methods: We tested for interactions between 7,745,864 variants and sex on spirometry-based measures of lung function in UK Biobank (N=303,612), and sought replication in 75,696 independent individuals from the SpiroMeta consortium. Results: Five independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed genome-wide significant (P<5x10 -8) interactions with sex on lung function, and 21 showed suggestive interactions (P<1x10 -6). The strongest signal, from rs7697189 (chr4:145436894) on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV 1) (P=3.15x10 -15), was replicated (P=0.016) in SpiroMeta. The C allele increased FEV 1 more in males (untransformed FEV 1 β=0.028 [SE 0.0022] litres) than females (β=0.009 [SE 0.0014] litres), and this effect was not accounted for by differential effects on height, smoking or pubertal age. rs7697189 resides upstream of the hedgehog-interacting protein ( HHIP) gene and was previously associated with lung function and HHIP lung expression. We found HHIP expression was significantly different between the sexes (P=6.90x10 -6), but we could not detect sex differential effects of rs7697189 on expression. Conclusions: We identified a novel genotype-by-sex interaction at a putative enhancer region upstream of the HHIP gene. Establishing the mechanism by which HHIP SNPs have different effects on lung function in males and females will be important for our understanding of lung health and diseases in both sexes.