Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of disease scenarios for 204 countries and territories, 2022-2050: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050.

METHODS

Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline.

FINDINGS

In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]).

INTERPRETATION

Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.

METHODS

To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.

FINDINGS

During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.

INTERPRETATION

Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

FINDINGS

Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.

INTERPRETATION

Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.

METHODS

22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.

FINDINGS

Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.

INTERPRETATION

Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.

FINDINGS

Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378-521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20-3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5-45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7-26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6-38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5-32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7-2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.

INTERPRETATION

As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effectiveness of multi-component modular intervention on screen-based and non-screen-based sedentary time among adolescents in an urban area of Mangalore: a school-based cluster randomised controlled trial-protocol

Background

Behavioural risk factors may often present during adolescence and account for 70% of premature deaths during adulthood. Excessive sedentary behaviour and screen time have become significant concerns, especially among adolescents, due to their potential negative impact on physical and mental health. Adolescents with a high screen-based sedentary time are more likely to be physically inactive, have unhealthy body structure and poor academic performance. The objective of our study is to assess the effect of multi-component modular educational intervention on screen-based sedentary time (SST) and non-screen-based Sedentary time (NSST) among adolescents.

Methods

Ethical approval for the study has been obtained from the institutional Ethics Committee of Kasturba Medical College in Mangalore, India. This cluster randomized control trial will be carried out in schools located in the urban area of Mangalore. Using simple randomization, the eligible schools will be randomized into intervention and control arms, each consisting of 10 clusters. A multi-component modular educational intervention will be administered to participants in the intervention group at baseline, second and fourth month. The control group will receive the standard curriculum. Both the groups will be assessed at baseline and at second month, fourth month and sixth month of follow up for SST, NSST and level of physical activity. Anthropometric measurements like height, weight, waist circumference and hip circumference will be taken at baseline and sixth month of follow up.

Results

A comprehensive school-based modular educational intervention can have cumulative advantages by reducing screen- and non-screen-based sedentary time, and encouraging physical activity. Similar modular teaching can be incorporated into the curriculum, which will promote healthy life-style among the adolescents.

Clinical and seasonal pattern of dengue in a tertiary care hospital of South West India

Background

Dengue is an emerging global viral disease with an increase 30-fold in incidence in the past fifty years. In the past decade it was restricted to only few a states of South and Northern India but in the recent past it has affected almost all the states in India. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical profile, trends and outcome of dengue cases.

Methods

This retrospective record based cross-sectional study was conducted in tertiary hospital, Mangaluru in Southern India. The study population included all dengue positive cases diagnosed either by IgM Capture ELISA or Dengue Non-structural Protein NS1 antigen over a period of five years. Information from pre-recorded case sheets were used for data collection. The data was analyzed using SPSS Version 20. Results from the analysis have been expressed in percentages, means and graphs.

Results

The study included 401 dengue cases. Most cases were in the age range of 20-40 years with a male to female ratio of 3:2. Overall seropositivity rate was 23.94% with High IgM prevalence. Monthly distribution showed a maximum cases were in the months of June and July and minimum were in January and February. Among the study participants, 91.5% of patients recovered completely and 1.7% of patients had died. 6.8% of patients were discharged against medical advice.

Conclusions

Dengue continues to be major public health problem in this part of the globe affecting mainly the working age group. Low seropositivity with High IgM prevelance makes dengue an important differential for febrile illness of vague nature and invokes the need for robust public health response to curb the hyper-endemicity.

Temporal patterns of cancer burden in Asia, 1990-2019: a systematic examination for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study

Background

Cancers represent a challenging public health threat in Asia. This study examines the temporal patterns of incidence, mortality, disability and risk factors of 29 cancers in Asia in the last three decades.

Methods

The age, sex and year-wise estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of 29 cancers for 49 Asian countries from 1990 through 2019 were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries and Risk Factors 2019 study. Besides incidence, mortality and DALYs, we also examined the cancer burden measured in terms of DALYs and deaths attributable to risk factors, which had evidence of causation with different cancers. The development status of countries was measured using the socio-demographic index. Decomposition analysis was performed to gauge the change in cancer incidence between 1990 and 2019 due to population growth, aging and age-specific incidence rates.

Findings

All cancers combined claimed an estimated 5.6 million [95% uncertainty interval, 5.1-6.0 million] lives in Asia with 9.4 million [8.6-10.2 million] incident cases and 144.7 million [132.7-156.5 million] DALYs in 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers combined in Asia was 197.6/100,000 [181.0-214.4] in 2019, varying from 99.2/100,000 [76.1-126.0] in Bangladesh to 330.5/100,000 [298.5-365.8] in Cyprus. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) was 120.6/100,000 [110.1-130.7] in 2019, varying 4-folds across countries from 71.0/100,000 [59.9-83.5] in Kuwait to 284.2/100,000 [229.2-352.3] in Mongolia. The age-standardized DALYs rate was 2970.5/100,000 [2722.6-3206.5] in 2019, varying from 1578.0/100,000 [1341.2-1847.0] in Kuwait to 6574.4/100,000 [5141.7-8333.0] in Mongolia. Between 1990 and 2019, deaths due to 17 of the 29 cancers either doubled or more, and 20 of the 29 cancers underwent an increase of 150% or more in terms of new cases. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (both sexes), breast cancer (among females), colon and rectum cancer (both sexes), stomach cancer (both sexes) and prostate cancer (among males) were among top-5 cancers in most Asian countries in terms of ASIR and ASMR in 2019 and cancers of liver, stomach, hodgkin lymphoma and esophageal cancer posted the most significant decreases in age-standardized rates between 1990 and 2019. Among the modifiable risk factors, smoking, alcohol use, ambient particulate matter (PM) pollution and unsafe sex remained the dominant risk factors between 1990 and 2019. Cancer DALYs due to ambient PM pollution, high body mass index and fasting plasma glucose has increased most notably between 1990 and 2019.

Interpretation

With growing incidence, cancer has become more significant public health threat in Asia, demanding urgent policy attention and guidance. Its heightened risk calls for increased cancer awareness, preventive measures, affordable early-stage detection, and cost-effective therapeutics in Asia. The current study can serve as a useful resource for policymakers and researchers in Asia for devising interventions for cancer management and control.

Funding

The GBD study is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Thirty years of emotional intelligence: A scoping review of emotional intelligence training programme among nurses

The stressful environment of any healthcare setting can be detrimental to nurses' mental and emotional health. In recent years, emotional intelligence (EI) has emerged as a vital psychological resource that positively impacts mental and emotional health and improves organizational functioning and success. This scoping review aimed to collate, synthesize and outline the research conducted on EI training programmes among nurses to assess their effectiveness in improving staff nurses' EI. Electronic databases of MEDLINE via PubMed, CINAHL, Scopus, Cochrane, ProQuest, Embase and Web of Science were comprehensively searched for related studies published between 1990 and 2021 (updated in May 2022). Two investigators independently screened the abstracts of the retrieved studies against the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Out of 728 initially retrieved studies, only 7 were included in the final synthesis. The PRISMA-ScR (2018) checklist was used to report the study findings. All the studies included in the review reported a significant improvement in nurses' EI after a training programme. The results also indicate that EI interventions are an effective way to improve nurses' psychological resources (improve resilience and coping skills; reduce anxiety and stress), leadership qualities, job performance and patient experience of nursing care. As nurses are exposed to a wide range of emotions, human pain and suffering, the results of this review suggest that improving the EI skills of nurses through short training programmes is an effective way to maintain their emotional and mental well-being. This scoping review is preregistered in Prospero (CRD42020161084).

Paternal perspectives towards infant and young child feeding (IYCF): a qualitative analysis from Coastal South India

BACKGROUND

The infant and young child feeding practices (IYCF) decide child growth and well-being. Paternal perspectives and involvement in IYCF are of paramount importance and are grossly under-studied.

AIMS

To study the experiences and opinions of fathers of infants and young children towards feeding practices.

SETTINGS AND DESIGN

Two focus group discussions (FGD) were carried out in the community settings in Dakshina Kannada District, Karnataka State.

METHODS AND MATERIAL

FGDs were carried out in the areas of two selected primary health centres. FGD guide was used and the discussions were audio recorded. Themes were derived from the transcript.

RESULTS

Four main themes were generated from the transcripts of two FGDs. Lack of time to involve in child feeding, lack of felt need for increased involvement, sense of being complete in providing paternal care and readiness to learn were the generated themes. All participating fathers had favourable attitudes towards learning more about IYCF.

CONCLUSIONS

Lack of time felt need for higher paternal involvement in IYCF and sense of being complete in providing paternal care were the themes extracted, along with favourable attitude towards increasing their involvement in IYCF.

Effectiveness of Integrated Emotional-Self Enhancement (IESE) program among staff nurses: protocol for a quasi-experimental study

Background: Staff nurses face frequent emotional situations in their work environment. The constant contact with suffering patients, and the busy work environment, pose tremendous stress on nurses' physical and emotional health. The Emotional Intelligence skills of empathy, self-awareness, motivation, self-control, and keeping relationships, can help handle difficult emotions and allow nurses to work in an organized, calm, and professional way. This study aims to implement and assess the effectiveness of a training program developed by the investigator, tailored to the mental and emotional needs of staff nurses who are working in an organization. The study also aims to observe any significant change, correlation, and association in the staff nurses' level of emotional intelligence, intrinsic motivation, self-compassion, emotional labor, and nurse-in-charges' and patients' perception of nursing care after the program. Methods: A quasi-experimental (one-group) study design was used in this study. The study will involve 80 staff nurses working in a selected hospital in India. The staff nurses will be selected from the hospital's general wards using convenience sampling. For the current study, a quasi-experimental design will be used. The investigator will deliver a training program, divided into four sessions of two hours each. Data will be collected from the participants at baseline and 3-months pre-intervention; and post-test data will be collected immediately after the intervention, at 3-month, and 6-month follow-up, to observe any significant change in the study variables before and after the intervention. Results: The current study primarily focuses on the vital aspect of developing emotional needs, for promoting a better work-life balance. Research findings from the study will significantly contribute to the evidence based Emotional Intelligence programs for staff nurses, and if proven effective, could be delivered extensively in the hospitals. Trial registration: The study is registered in June 2019 under the Central Trial Registry of India ( CTRI/2019/08/020592).

Tracing the Disparity Between Healthcare Policy-Based Infrastructure and Health Belief-Lead Practices: a Narrative Review on Indigenous Populations of India

Most Indian tribes have limited access to healthcare facilities and rely heavily on traditional healing practices. This narrative review aimed to identify the disparities in the implementation of healthcare services and in accessing and availing these services by the indigenous population in India. We also have tried to throw light on the plausibility in strengthening the efficiency and efficacy of the public health system, by utilizing the available resources to its maximum potential, so that there will be a measurable outcome in the health status of these populations in India, coherently with the relevant sustainable development goals (SDG). The evidence from published literatures supports the fact that the disparity exists in the health status of indigenous populations in India as compared to the general populations. It emphasizes the need to address the key determinants such as the lack of knowledge, traditional healing practices and poor utilization of healthcare services provided to them. Various factors such as accessibility to healthcare resources, traditional healing practices, lack of awareness regarding healthcare services and schemes provided by the government, insufficient data regarding their issues and challenges and cultural and language barriers worsen the health status of indigenous people. However, our review reiterates that a well-structured and sustainable policy with reframed infrastructure and administration of healthcare system might bring a positive change in the health status of indigenous population in India.

The Global, Regional, and National Burden of Adult Lip, Oral, and Pharyngeal Cancer in 204 Countries and Territories: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Importance

Lip, oral, and pharyngeal cancers are important contributors to cancer burden worldwide, and a comprehensive evaluation of their burden globally, regionally, and nationally is crucial for effective policy planning.

Objective

To analyze the total and risk-attributable burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) for 204 countries and territories and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) using 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study estimates.

Evidence Review

The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to LOC and OPC from 1990 to 2019 were estimated using GBD 2019 methods. The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate the proportion of deaths and DALYs for LOC and OPC attributable to smoking, tobacco, and alcohol consumption in 2019.

Findings

In 2019, 370 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 338 000-401 000) cases and 199 000 (95% UI, 181 000-217 000) deaths for LOC and 167 000 (95% UI, 153 000-180 000) cases and 114 000 (95% UI, 103 000-126 000) deaths for OPC were estimated to occur globally, contributing 5.5 million (95% UI, 5.0-6.0 million) and 3.2 million (95% UI, 2.9-3.6 million) DALYs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, low-middle and low SDI regions consistently showed the highest age-standardized mortality rates due to LOC and OPC, while the high SDI strata exhibited age-standardized incidence rates decreasing for LOC and increasing for OPC. Globally in 2019, smoking had the greatest contribution to risk-attributable OPC deaths for both sexes (55.8% [95% UI, 49.2%-62.0%] of all OPC deaths in male individuals and 17.4% [95% UI, 13.8%-21.2%] of all OPC deaths in female individuals). Smoking and alcohol both contributed to substantial LOC deaths globally among male individuals (42.3% [95% UI, 35.2%-48.6%] and 40.2% [95% UI, 33.3%-46.8%] of all risk-attributable cancer deaths, respectively), while chewing tobacco contributed to the greatest attributable LOC deaths among female individuals (27.6% [95% UI, 21.5%-33.8%]), driven by high risk-attributable burden in South and Southeast Asia.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this systematic analysis, disparities in LOC and OPC burden existed across the SDI spectrum, and a considerable percentage of burden was attributable to tobacco and alcohol use. These estimates can contribute to an understanding of the distribution and disparities in LOC and OPC burden globally and support cancer control planning efforts.

Effect of educational intervention in reducing exposure to second hand tobacco smoke among 12-year-old children as determined by their salivary cotinine levels and knowledge, attitude and behavior - a randomized controlled trial

Background

Tobacco use is one of the most important public health concerns, with approximately 8.7 million tobacco-related deaths each year, primarily in low- and middle-income countries. Even more concerning is the fact that 1.3 million of these deaths are seen in nonsmokers, including babies and children. This study was performed to determine whether a school-based "tobacco-free" educational intervention program among 12-year-old children would be effective in reducing their exposure to second-hand tobacco smoke (SHS) by improving their knowledge, attitude and behavior post intervention and estimating salivary cotinine levels as markers of SHS exposure.

Materials and method

A randomized controlled trial was performed by a cluster random sampling technique, with 30 participants each in the experimental and control arms. A knowledge, attitude, avoidance behavior and self-efficacy of avoidance questionnaire was administered, followed by estimation of salivary cotinine levels. The experimental arm received the "tobacco-free" intervention, which comprised a 40-min health education session, with the first follow-up at 15 days and the second at 30 days after the intervention. After the intervention, the questionnaire was readministered, followed by re-estimation of salivary cotinine levels.

Results

One month after the intervention, the number of participants who had a smoker who lived with them and the number of people who smoked inside the house were reduced in the experimental group compared to the control group. In the knowledge domain and the attitude domain, 80% and 60% of the items showed a statistically significant improvement in the experimental group compared to the control group. In the avoidance behavior domain and the Self-Efficacy of Avoidance Domain, all the items showed improvement in the experimental group compared to the control group. When the mean salivary cotinine levels were compared pre- and postintervention, it was found that although the mean postintervention salivary cotinine levels increased in both the experimental and control groups, the increase was less in the experimental group than in the control group.

Conclusion

The present study has been shown to be effective in improving the knowledge, attitude and avoidance behavior of adolescents toward exposure to secondhand smoke.

Effectiveness of multi-component modular intervention among adults with prehypertension in a village of Dakshina Kannada district - a community-based interventional study - protocol

INTRODUCTION

The Joint National Committee (JNC 7) report on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of Hypertension, defined "prehypertension," as individuals with a Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP) in the range of 120-139 mmHg and a (diastolic blood pressure) DBP of 80-89 mmHg. Prehypertension is directly linked with hypertension which is a precursor of CVDs. Owing to its high conversion rate to hypertension, it is important to identify individuals with blood pressures in this category and bring about lifestyle modifications in them that can prevent them from being hypertensive and from developing cardiovascular diseases later in life.

METHODS

This randomized controlled trial will be done among the selected pre-hypertensive adults of all genders residing in Kateel Gram panchayat, Dakshina Kannada district, Karnataka. A baseline survey will be done initially to assess the level of prehypertension among the study population. To study the effectiveness of the intervention, 142 individuals will be randomly allocated using block randomization technique to intervention and control groups. A multi-component module (educational intervention) will be developed, validated, and administered to participants in the intervention group, while the control group receives standard care. Each participant will then be followed up once in four months till the end of the study period of one year to assess for changes in SBP, DBP, WHR, BMI, stress levels, and usage of tobacco and alcohol.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Institutional Ethics Committee approval was obtained from Kasturba Medical College in Mangalore, India. The plans for dissemination of findings include presenting at scientific conferences and publishing in scholarly journals.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Exacerbation Rates in COPD Patients in Southern India - A Potential Role for Community Mitigations Measures

Introduction

The impact of the coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and the effect of preventive health strategies on acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are largely unknown. The public health model imposed during the pandemic and the lessons learnt have implications on recommending future preventive strategies for COPD care in general and exacerbations in particular.

Aim

This study endeavors to assess the role of preventive strategies of COVID-19 on exacerbation rates of COPD during the lockdown period compared to similar periods the previous year and assess the compliance to preventive strategies for COVID-19 among COPD patients.

Methods

This is a hospital-based descriptive cross-sectional study at a tertiary care center. AECOPD in patients during a period spanning five months in the pre-lockdown days was compared with exacerbation rates for a similar period during the national lockdown.

Results

Sixty-eight patients were recruited (mean age: 67.38) among whom 47 were males and 21 were females. There were only 7 (10.3%) reported admissions during the lockdown period of 5 months compared to 50 (73.5%) during the corresponding period pre-lockdown. Mild exacerbations reported during the lockdown period were also significantly less with only 17 (25%) against 58 (85.3%) during the pre-lockdown period. Adherence to measures such as donning of masks, hand hygiene, and social distancing was observed among COPD patients with good compliance to the health practices promulgated in the pandemic.

Discussion

A significant reduction in exacerbation rates among AECOPD patients during the period of lockdown was observed compared to a similar period the year prior. Noticeable were the findings that both community-based milder exacerbations and severe exacerbations necessitating hospitalizations showed a reduction during the period of lockdown. Adaptability, compliance and acceptance to usage of masks, hand hygiene measures, and norms such as physical distancing were observed in the majority of COPD patients.

Global, regional, and national burden of meningitis and its aetiologies, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Although meningitis is largely preventable, it still causes hundreds of thousands of deaths globally each year. WHO set ambitious goals to reduce meningitis cases by 2030, and assessing trends in the global meningitis burden can help track progress and identify gaps in achieving these goals. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we aimed to assess incident cases and deaths due to acute infectious meningitis by aetiology and age from 1990 to 2019, for 204 countries and territories.

METHODS

We modelled meningitis mortality using vital registration, verbal autopsy, sample-based vital registration, and mortality surveillance data. Meningitis morbidity was modelled with a Bayesian compartmental model, using data from the published literature identified by a systematic review, as well as surveillance data, inpatient hospital admissions, health insurance claims, and cause-specific meningitis mortality estimates. For aetiology estimation, data from multiple causes of death, vital registration, hospital discharge, microbial laboratory, and literature studies were analysed by use of a network analysis model to estimate the proportion of meningitis deaths and cases attributable to the following aetiologies: Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae, group B Streptococcus, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Listeria monocytogenes, Staphylococcus aureus, viruses, and a residual other pathogen category.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 236 000 deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 204 000-277 000) and 2·51 million (2·11-2·99) incident cases due to meningitis globally. The burden was greatest in children younger than 5 years, with 112 000 deaths (87 400-145 000) and 1·28 million incident cases (0·947-1·71) in 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates decreased from 7·5 (6·6-8·4) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 3·3 (2·8-3·9) per 100 000 population in 2019. The highest proportion of total all-age meningitis deaths in 2019 was attributable to S pneumoniae (18·1% [17·1-19·2]), followed by N meningitidis (13·6% [12·7-14·4]) and K pneumoniae (12·2% [10·2-14·3]). Between 1990 and 2019, H influenzae showed the largest reduction in the number of deaths among children younger than 5 years (76·5% [69·5-81·8]), followed by N meningitidis (72·3% [64·4-78·5]) and viruses (58·2% [47·1-67·3]).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing meningitis mortality over the past three decades. However, more meningitis-related deaths might be prevented by quickly scaling up immunisation and expanding access to health services. Further reduction in the global meningitis burden should be possible through low-cost multivalent vaccines, increased access to accurate and rapid diagnostic assays, enhanced surveillance, and early treatment.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Effect of nutrition intervention on cognitive development among malnourished preschool children: randomized controlled trial

Childhood malnutrition impairs health, development, and productivity in adulthood. Underweight children have been found to have a variety of cognitive abnormalities. The present study examined the effect of a nutrition-focused intervention on cognitive development among malnourished preschool children between 3 and 5 years of age residing in selected villages of Udupi district, Karnataka. A cluster of 12 villages was chosen randomly. The trial had enrolled preschool children (n = 253) from randomly assigned selected villages to intervention (n = 127) and control arms (n = 126). The mothers in the intervention arm received nutrition-focused intervention and reinforcement of health teaching for 12 months. The post-intervention outcome on the cognitive development of malnourished children was measured at 6 months and 12 months. Statistical analyses indicated that 52% of children in the intervention group had average cognitive development scores on the pre-test, whereas on the post-test, only 5.5% were in the average level of cognitive development. In the control group, the average cognitive development status of the children decreased from 44.4% in the pretest to 26.2% in the post-test. The cognitive development of malnourished children in the intervention group improved compared to the control group (p < 0.001). This study revealed that home-based nutrition-focused food helps to enhance children's cognitive development.Trial registration: ctri@gov.in. CTRI/31/03/2017/008273 [Registered on: 31/03/2017].

Attitudes toward and knowledge of collaboration of dental and medical practice among medical students in Southern India: a cross-sectional questionnaire survey

BACKGROUND

Enhancing oral health care services provided through inter-professional collaboration between medical and dental practitioner is important, and even essential. The purpose of this study is to assess the attitude toward and knowledge of medical-dental collaborative practice among medical students attending colleges in Southern India.

METHODS

A cross sectional questionnaire survey was conducted among medical students and interns of medical colleges in coastal South India with prior information and permission. The questionnaire consisted of 11 questions to assess attitude toward and knowledge of medical-dental collaborative practice. The demographic backgrounds of participants were also recorded. Chi square test was employed for data analysis. The responses obtained were correlated with age, gender and year of study of participants using Pearson's correlation test Results: A total 250 questionnaires were distributed and 234 responses were appropriately completed. Most of the students agreed that oral health was an integral part of systemic health, however participants disagreed on attending compulsory rotation in dentistry at a statistically significant level (p<0.05), moreover participants did not agree with physicians having an active role in motivating their patients for regular dental check-up. 82% of the medical students believe that dental check-up should be included in health packages under health insurance. A statistically significant (p<0.05) difference was observed among 3 rd year & 4 thyear students and interns and also it was found that female students provided more positive responses towards medical-dental collaboration.

CONCLUSIONS

Even though medical students showed fairly positive attitudes and knowledge towards dentistry, the analysis within the study groups showed that knowledge and attitudes regarding the collaborative practice worsened over the academic years among the medical students. In order to destigmatize and foster interdisciplinary collaboration which would contribute to higher resource efficiency and the standard of care, continuing education in both the disciplines would be highly beneficial.

Effect of Educational Intervention on Knowledge and Level of Adherence among Hemodialysis Patients: A Randomized Controlled Trial

Purpose. The purpose of the study was to assess the impact of an educational intervention on the level of knowledge and adherence to the treatment regimen among hemodialysis (HD) patients as well as to describe the association between these variables. Methods. In this randomized controlled trial, 160 HD patients at an HD centre of a 2030-bed tertiary teaching hospital in Southern India were randomly assigned into intervention (N = 80, received education and a booklet) and control (N = 80, received standard care) groups. Knowledge and adherence were measured preintervention and postintervention using a validated questionnaire for knowledge and the ESRD-AQ (End-Stage Renal Disease Questionnaire) for the level of adherence. The statistical analysis of the data was performed with the help of the Statistical Program SPSS version 19.0. The statistical significance level was set at 0.05. Results. The increase in knowledge on disease management, fluid adherence, and dietary adherence in the intervention group was significantly higher compared to the control group. There was no significant correlation between knowledge and adherence. Adherence improved for all the domains, i.e., dialysis attendance, episodes of shortening, adherence to medication, fluid restriction, and dietary restriction. Adherence to fluid and dietary restriction was statistically significant. This trail is registered with https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/CTRI/2018/05/014166.

The COVID-19 pandemic and mental health outcomes - A cross-sectional study among health care workers in Coastal South India

Background: Frontline health care workers (HCWs) are at increased risk of developing unfavourable mental health outcomes and burnout, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. Recognizing the early warning signs of mental distress is very important to ensure the provision of quality patient care. Methods: In this facility-based cross-sectional study, HCWs of the teaching hospitals affiliated to Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore were assessed regarding their mental health status using a semi-structured questionnaire. All doctors and nurses who were willing to participate from these teaching hospitals were included in the study. Data was collected over a period of four months (1 st March -30 th June 2021) till the required sample size was reached and analysed using IBM SPSS and expressed using mean (standard deviation), median (interquartile range), and proportions. Univariate analysis was done to identify the factors associated with mental health outcomes among the HCWs and the corresponding unadjusted odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were reported. Results: A total of 245 HCWs [52.2% (n=128) doctors and 47.8% (n=117) nurses] were included in our study. The proportion of participants with depressive symptoms, anxiety, and insomnia assessed using PHQ-9, GAD-7, and ISI-7 scales were 49% (n=119), 38% (n=93), and 42% (n=102) respectively. Depression, anxiety, and insomnia were more likely to be experienced by HCWs aged > 27 years, females, and involved in COVID-19 patient care. (p>0.05) Conclusions:  Our findings that 38% of the examined HCWs had clinically relevant anxiety symptoms and 49% had clinically relevant depression symptoms draws attention to the importance of systematically tracking the mental health of HCWs during this ongoing pandemic. HCWs should monitor their stress reactions and seek appropriate help both on a personal and professional level. Appropriate workplace interventions including psychological support should be provided to HCWs, to ensure provision of uncompromised quality patient care.

Effect of a Submucosal Injection of Platelet-Rich Plasma on the Rate of Orthodontic Tooth Movement - A Split-Mouth, Single-Blind Randomized Controlled Trial

Objective

To investigate the effect of submucosal injection of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) on the rate of mini-implant-supported retraction, using a split-mouth randomized clinical design.

Materials and Methods

Twenty subjects of either gender between 16 and 25 years of age with bimaxillary dentoalveolar protrusion and crowding of <4 mm scheduled to undergo fixed mechanotherapy with the extraction of 1st premolars; were recruited for the study. Those with a periodontally compromised dentition, blood dyscrasias, smoking/alcoholism, or with a history of fixed orthodontic treatment were not considered. The intervention side received a submucosal injection of autologous PRP which was prepared using 10 ml of the patient's blood. The rate of extraction space closure on both sides was recorded and compared monthly for 3 months using a digital caliper.

Results

Mean overall retraction was faster on the intervention side as compared to the control side by 1.5 times and was statistically significant with a P value of 0.001. There was no influence of gender on the rate of retraction. There was no reported swelling or discomfort associated with the PRP injection.

Conclusions

Submucosal injection of PRP significantly accelerates orthodontic tooth movement and can therefore be used as an effective, safe, and minimally invasive method to expedite orthodontic treatment.

Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018

BACKGROUND

Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

RESULTS

We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

CONCLUSIONS

As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

Assessing performance of the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, overall and by select age groups, for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Health-care needs change throughout the life course. It is thus crucial to assess whether health systems provide access to quality health care for all ages. Drawing from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019), we measured the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index overall and for select age groups in 204 locations from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

We distinguished the overall HAQ Index (ages 0-74 years) from scores for select age groups: the young (ages 0-14 years), working (ages 15-64 years), and post-working (ages 65-74 years) groups. For GBD 2019, HAQ Index construction methods were updated to use the arithmetic mean of scaled mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs) and risk-standardised death rates (RSDRs) for 32 causes of death that should not occur in the presence of timely, quality health care. Across locations and years, MIRs and RSDRs were scaled from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) separately, putting the HAQ Index on a different relative scale for each age group. We estimated absolute convergence for each group on the basis of whether the HAQ Index grew faster in absolute terms between 1990 and 2019 in countries with lower 1990 HAQ Index scores than countries with higher 1990 HAQ Index scores and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. SDI is a summary metric of overall development.

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2019, the HAQ Index increased overall (by 19·6 points, 95% uncertainty interval 17·9-21·3), as well as among the young (22·5, 19·9-24·7), working (17·2, 15·2-19·1), and post-working (15·1, 13·2-17·0) age groups. Large differences in HAQ Index scores were present across SDI levels in 2019, with the overall index ranging from 30·7 (28·6-33·0) on average in low-SDI countries to 83·4 (82·4-84·3) on average in high-SDI countries. Similarly large ranges between low-SDI and high-SDI countries, respectively, were estimated in the HAQ Index for the young (40·4-89·0), working (33·8-82·8), and post-working (30·4-79·1) groups. Absolute convergence in HAQ Index was estimated in the young group only. In contrast, divergence was estimated among the working and post-working groups, driven by slow progress in low-SDI countries.

INTERPRETATION

Although major gaps remain across levels of social and economic development, convergence in the young group is an encouraging sign of reduced disparities in health-care access and quality. However, divergence in the working and post-working groups indicates that health-care access and quality is lagging at lower levels of social and economic development. To meet the needs of ageing populations, health systems need to improve health-care access and quality for working-age adults and older populations while continuing to realise gains among the young.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Returning to work at school during the COVID -19 pandemic, is it stressful for schoolteachers? Assessment of immediate psychological effects: a cross sectional study

Background: The adoption of remote classes for students has been in vogue since the onset of the pandemic. Schools reopened in a phased manner after the second wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in India. Reverting to the regular face-to-face teaching for students became a challenge to the teachers and students, especially at times when there was an impending third wave on the way. The study aimed to assess the presence of symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress in teachers who attended reopened schools in the scenario of face-to-face classes. In addition, we studied the association of psychological symptoms with teachers' age groups, gender, school boards, and school institution type. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted between October to December 2021 after schools had reopened. Data was collected using Google Form questionnaires in 124 schoolteachers. The Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale - 21 Items (DASS-21) questionnaire assessed the psychological symptoms. Results: Of 124 schoolteachers, 108(87.1%) were female, 112 (90.3%) were from private institutions, and 70(56.5%) were from Central Board of Secondary Education (CBSE) school boards. The prevalence of depression, anxiety, and stress in teachers was 30.6%, 45.2%, and 20.2%, respectively. Nearly 80% of the female teachers expressed depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms. Amongst all the age groups, symptoms were higher in 40-49 group. We found anxiety to be statistically significant when compared with gender (p-0.042). We found no statistically significant differences concerning age groups, school boards, or school institutions with any psychological symptoms. Conclusions: The prevalence of psychological symptoms was high among schoolteachers after schools reopened for regular face-to-face teaching. Gender was associated with anxiety in teachers. We agree that identifying teachers' symptoms and providing adequate psychological counseling/support would improve their mental health status and thereby the quality of teaching to students.

Integrating Research into Undergraduate Medical Education Curriculum: A 20-year Experience from a Medical School in Coastal South India

Research is the key to advancement in medical science. Medical school can nurture the skill of research right from the under graduation. Research forms an integral part of the medical curriculum in western countries. We attempted the same in our medical school in India. We developed a structured research methodology program, which was implemented in the undergraduate (UG) curriculum in two phases. Phase I focuses on research methodology and Phase II on manuscript writing. With the implementation of a competency-based medical education curriculum (CBME), we have extended the research methodology program with manuscript writing and introduction to systematic reviews, which is being offered as electives to UG medical students in the third professional year. Our experience in training students at an UG level has been immensely satisfying. We hope that this article will help other medical schools to adopt a similar method of training UG medical students in research methodology and scientific medical writing.

Mapping development and health effects of cooking with solid fuels in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000-18: a geospatial modelling study

BACKGROUND

More than 3 billion people do not have access to clean energy and primarily use solid fuels to cook. Use of solid fuels generates household air pollution, which was associated with more than 2 million deaths in 2019. Although local patterns in cooking vary systematically, subnational trends in use of solid fuels have yet to be comprehensively analysed. We estimated the prevalence of solid-fuel use with high spatial resolution to explore subnational inequalities, assess local progress, and assess the effects on health in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) without universal access to clean fuels.

METHODS

We did a geospatial modelling study to map the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking at a 5 km × 5 km resolution in 98 LMICs based on 2·1 million household observations of the primary cooking fuel used from 663 population-based household surveys over the years 2000 to 2018. We use observed temporal patterns to forecast household air pollution in 2030 and to assess the probability of attaining the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target indicator for clean cooking. We aligned our estimates of household air pollution to geospatial estimates of ambient air pollution to establish the risk transition occurring in LMICs. Finally, we quantified the effect of residual primary solid-fuel use for cooking on child health by doing a counterfactual risk assessment to estimate the proportion of deaths from lower respiratory tract infections in children younger than 5 years that could be associated with household air pollution.

FINDINGS

Although primary reliance on solid-fuel use for cooking has declined globally, it remains widespread. 593 million people live in districts where the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking exceeds 95%. 66% of people in LMICs live in districts that are not on track to meet the SDG target for universal access to clean energy by 2030. Household air pollution continues to be a major contributor to particulate exposure in LMICs, and rising ambient air pollution is undermining potential gains from reductions in the prevalence of solid-fuel use for cooking in many countries. We estimated that, in 2018, 205 000 (95% uncertainty interval 147 000-257 000) children younger than 5 years died from lower respiratory tract infections that could be attributed to household air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

Efforts to accelerate the adoption of clean cooking fuels need to be substantially increased and recalibrated to account for subnational inequalities, because there are substantial opportunities to improve air quality and avert child mortality associated with household air pollution.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Correlation of Serum Uric Acid with Cognition, Severity, and Stage of Disease in Patients with Idiopathic Parkinson’s Disease and Vascular Parkinsonism: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background:

Uric acid (UA) being a potent antioxidant may reduce the oxidative stress and progression of Parkinson’s disease. However, the role of UA is not yet established in people with Idiopathic Parkinson’s disease (IPD) and Vascular Parkinsonism (VP).

Objectives:

We aimed i) to compare the serum UA levels in IPD, VP, and healthy adults and ii) to find a relation between UA levels with disease severity, disease stage, and cognitive function in people with IPD and VP.

Methods:

A cross-sectional study was conducted among people with IPD (n=70), VP (n=70), and healthy adults (n=70). Demographics details, body mass index, duration of illness, levodopa usage, comorbidities, MDS-UPDRS scores, modified H&Y scale, MMSE, and serum UA levels were collected from participants. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to find the correlation between UA levels, MDS-UPDRS, H & Y, and MMSE scores.

Results:

The age of the participants ranged from 59 to 80 years. Results showed that serum UA level in healthy control (5.41±0.99; p=0.001) and VP groups (5.27 ± 0.99; p=0.001) were significantly higher compared to IPD group (4.34 ±1.03). We found a significant negative correlation between UA and MDS-UPDRS (r=-0.68, p<0.01) and H & Y scores (r = -0.61, p<0.01) and a significant positive correlation of UA with MMSE (r=0.55, p<0.01) in the IPD group. UA levels in the VP group were not correlated with any of the outcome measures.

Conclusion:

In people with IPD, serum UA level was negatively correlated with severity and progression of the disease but positively correlated with cognitive ability.

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.

METHODS

The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.

FINDINGS

Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01-4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3-48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1-45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60-3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8-54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36-1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5-41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6-28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8-25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9-42·8] and 33·3% [25·8-42·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Module intervention to improve involvement and practices of fathers towards infant and young child feeding (IYCF) in Coastal South India - a randomized controlled trial

Background: Overall child health depends on nutrition and its related practices. At the family level, responsibility of child feeding lies with both parents. There is no uniform and systematic way to determine and assess the practices of fathers in infant and young child feeding (IYCF). Also, there is a paucity of evidence related to interventions for fathers in improving their practices and involvement in the feeding of their infant or young child (aged less than two years).

Methods: This was a community-based randomized control trial, conducted among 120 fathers with infants and/or young children in Dakshina Kannada District of Karnataka. Fathers with poor level of involvement and practices towards IYCF, during the initial assessment, were included as the study participants. For the intervention, a module in the flipchart format was developed. Simple randomization technique was used to allot the participants into two groups - intervention and control. Participants in the intervention group received module intervention, in addition to the care which they received routinely, and the control group received only routine care. The participants in the intervention group were paid a monthly visit to implement the module, for six months. The post-intervention assessment was done at the end of 6 months.

Results: A total of 117 participants provided post-intervention data. The mean age was 34.7 (+/- 5.48) years in the intervention group and 34.36 years (+/- 5.26) in the control group. The intervention group showed significantly higher improvement in knowledge, attitude, and practice components at 6 months (p<0.05), in both unadjusted and adjusted models.

Conclusions: The extent of increase in practice and involvement in child feeding was clearly higher among the intervention group. The module developed was successful in improving the practices of fathers in feeding their infants and young children.

Clinical Trials Registry India: CTRI/2017/06/008936 (29/06/2017)

Incentives for pregnant mothers during antenatal care for better maternal and neonatal health outcomes in low and middle income countries: A systematic review protocol

Background: Universal access to maternal new-born and child healthcare services (MNCH) is detrimental for attainment of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) three pertaining to promotion of health at all ages. Incentivization in the form of cash, vouchers, and goods have been used as part of strategies to improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes around the world. However, there exists uncertainties regarding the effectiveness of various incentive-based programmes targeted for pregnant mothers in low- and middle-income countries during their antenatal period.

Methods: We will search six electronic databases, namely the Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (Medline), Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Scopus, Web of Science, and Embase in addition to Google Scholar. Manual searching of the reference lists of included studies will also be done. The reporting of this protocol will follow the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 statement [29]. Only interventional studies that follow randomized, quasi randomized, and cluster randomized controlled study designs will be included. A three-stage screening process will be adopted to select articles. Risk of bias for the included studies will be assessed using the tools and criteria specified in the Cochrane handbook. In addition, the GRADE approach will be used to assess the quality of evidence for the maternal and neonatal health outcomes.

Conclusion: This review of trials is essential to inform the effectiveness of incentive-based programmes targeted for pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries. It will help the policy makers to utilise the resources more effectively and to integrate the evidence based public health initiatives into the health system. This can also help build the continuum of care financial packages for all pregnant women.

A Silent March- Post Covid Fibrosis in Asymptomatics-A Cause for Concern?

We report a case series of patients presenting with undiagnosed pulmonary fibrosis as a primary manifestation. On evaluation, after excluding other causes, the fibrosis was attributed to asymptomatic or mild COVID illness in the past. This case series serves to highlight the difficulties posed to clinicians while evaluating pulmonary fibrosis in the post-COVID era, more so in mild to asymptomatic COVID-19. The intriguing possibility of fibrosis setting even in mild to asymptomatic COVID is discussed.

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

IMPORTANCE

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019.

EVIDENCE REVIEW

The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.

Long-Term Impact of First-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy on HiV-1 Positive Patients: A Retrospective Study in Karnataka, India

Purpose:

In resource-limited settings like India, the treatment efficacy of ART is monitored through CD4 count and clinical indicators. The objective of this study is to assess outcomes and indicators of treatment failure in patients on long-term first-line ART.

Methods:

We carried out a retrospective study using data from 851 patients collected from ART centers established in two tertiary care hospitals of Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore. All HIV-1 positive patients initiated on first-line therapy from 2001 to 2009 were monitored.

Results:

Of the 851 patients, 62.6% were males, median age was 37 years and 90% were infected through heterosexual contact. About 21% of the total patients surveyed were reported to have died, 2.5% withdrew treatment, 2.5% were transferred out and 1.5% were lost to follow up. Moreover, 11.2% of the population were reported to have switched to second-line therapy due to poor adherence (p=0.0001). Of those evaluated for failure (n=95), 36.8% were due to both immunological and virological failure, and 34.7% were due to virological failure. Median CD4 count at initiation was 260 cells/mm3, while the median recent CD4 count was 555 cells/mm3. In our study, an association between adherence with outcome was found to be statistically significant.

Conclusion:

To conclude, this study proves that better adherence led to a favorable long-term outcome.

Long-Term Impact of First-Line Anti-Retroviral Therapy on HiV-1 Positive Patients: A Retrospective Study in Karnataka, India

Purpose:

In resource-limited settings like India, the treatment efficacy of ART is monitored through CD4 count and clinical indicators. The objective of this study is to assess outcomes and indicators of treatment failure in patients on long-term first-line ART.

Methods:

We carried out a retrospective study using data from 851 patients collected from ART centers established in two tertiary care hospitals of Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore. All HIV-1 positive patients initiated on first-line therapy from 2001 to 2009 were monitored.

Results:

Of the 851 patients, 62.6% were males, median age was 37 years and 90% were infected through heterosexual contact. About 21% of the total patients surveyed were reported to have died, 2.5% withdrew treatment, 2.5% were transferred out and 1.5% were lost to follow up. Moreover, 11.2% of the population were reported to have switched to second-line therapy due to poor adherence (p=0.0001). Of those evaluated for failure (n=95), 36.8% were due to both immunological and virological failure, and 34.7% were due to virological failure. Median CD4 count at initiation was 260 cells/mm3, while the median recent CD4 count was 555 cells/mm3. In our study, an association between adherence with outcome was found to be statistically significant.

Conclusion:

To conclude, this study proves that better adherence led to a favorable long-term outcome.

Development of strategies to support home-based exercise adherence after stroke: a Delphi consensus

OBJECTIVE

To develop a set of strategies to enhance adherence to home-based exercises after stroke, and an overarching framework to classify these strategies.

METHOD

We conducted a four-round Delphi consensus (two online surveys, followed by a focus group then a consensus round). The Delphi panel consisted of 13 experts from physiotherapy, occupational therapy, clinical psychology, behaviour science and community medicine. The experts were from India, Australia and UK.

RESULTS

In round 1, a 10-item survey using open-ended questions was emailed to panel members and 75 strategies were generated. Of these, 25 strategies were included in round 2 for further consideration. A total of 64 strategies were finally included in the subsequent rounds. In round 3, the strategies were categorised into nine domains-(1) patient education on stroke and recovery, (2) method of exercise prescription, (3) feedback and supervision, (4) cognitive remediation, (5) involvement of family members, (6) involvement of society, (7) promoting self-efficacy, (8) motivational strategies and (9) reminder strategies. The consensus from 12 experts (93%) led to the development of the framework in round 4.

CONCLUSION

We developed a framework of comprehensive strategies to assist clinicians in supporting exercise adherence among stroke survivors. It provides practical methods that can be deployed in both research and clinical practices. Future studies should explore stakeholders' experiences and the cost-effectiveness of implementing these strategies.

The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults.

FINDINGS

There were 1·19 million (95% UI 1·11-1·28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59·6 [54·5-65·7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53·2 [48·8-57·9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14·2 [12·9-15·6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13·6 [12·6-14·8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23·5 million (21·9-25·2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2·7% (1·9-3·6) came from YLDs and 97·3% (96·4-98·1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally.

INTERPRETATION

Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities, St Baldrick's Foundation, and the National Cancer Institute.

Risk Assessment for Diabetes Mellitus by Using Indian Diabetes Risk Score Among Office Workers of Health Institutions of South India

BACKGROUND

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is one of the non-communicable diseases plaguing the world and contributes a major part to the total disease burden. Diabetes has been prevalent in all countries throughout the years, with the majority of diabetics living in low- and middle-income countries. Madras Diabetes Research Foundation developed the Indian Diabetes Risk Score (IDRS), a simple and cost-effective method to assess the chances of developing diabetes.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the diabetes risk profile of office workers using IDRS and to determine the proportion of individual risk factors of diabetes among the participants.

METHODS

This cross sectional study included 94 non-diabetic office workers working in two health care institutions situated in coastal South India. Data was collected by a study questionnaire consisting of three sections. Section A included details related to participant characteristics, Section B included anthropometric measurements, and Section C consisted of the Indian Diabetes Risk Score. The collected data were coded and entered into Statistical Package for Social Sciences.

RESULTS

The mean age of the study participants was 40.88 (±9.761) years, and the mean BMI was 23.8 (±3.6) kg/m2. Majority (n=65, 67%) of the study participants did not have a family history of diabetes. One-third of the study participants had IDRS ≥ 60, which allocated them in the high risk category for type 2 diabetes (n=34, 35.1%).

CONCLUSION

It has been conclusively shown from the study that most of the office workers have moderate to high risk of developing diabetes and are also overweight or obese.

Impact of public-funded health insurances in India on health care utilisation and financial risk protection: a systematic review

OBJECTIVE

Universal Health Coverage aims to address the challenges posed by healthcare inequalities and inequities by increasing the accessibility and affordability of healthcare for the entire population. This review provides information related to impact of public-funded health insurance (PFHI) on financial risk protection and utilisation of healthcare.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

Medline (via PubMed, Web of Science), Scopus, Social Science Research Network and 3ie impact evaluation repository were searched from their inception until 15 July 2020, for English-language publications.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies giving information about the different PFHI in India, irrespective of population groups (above 18 years), were included. Cross-sectional studies with comparison, impact evaluations, difference-in-difference design based on before and after implementation of the scheme, pre-post, experimental trials and quasi-randomised trials were eligible for inclusion.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data extraction was performed by three reviewers independently. Due to heterogeneity in population and study design, statistical pooling was not possible; therefore, narrative synthesis was performed.

OUTCOMES

Utilisation of healthcare, willingness-to-pay (WTP), out-of-pocket expenditure (including outpatient and inpatient), catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment.

RESULTS

The impact of PFHI on financial risk protection reports no conclusive evidence to suggest that the schemes had any impact on financial protection. The impact of PFHIs such as Rashtriya Swasthy Bima Yojana, Vajpayee Arogyashree and Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana showed increased access and utilisation of healthcare services. There is a lack of evidence to conclude on WTP an additional amount to the existing monthly financial contribution.

CONCLUSION

Different central and state PFHIs increased the utilisation of healthcare services by the beneficiaries, but there was no conclusive evidence for reduction in financial risk protection of the beneficiaries.

REGISTRATION

Not registered.

Adaptive sports for promoting physical activity in community-dwelling adults with stroke: A feasibility study

BACKGROUND

Despite proven health benefits of regular participation in physical activities (PA), adults with stroke fail to achieve recommended levels of PA. Sports being an enjoyable activity is more likely to encourage participation. Therefore, the objectives of the present study are i) to develop and test the feasibility of adaptive sports for promoting PA and Quality of Life (QoL) in community-dwelling adults with stroke, and ii) to explore the participants perception and experiences of playing adaptive sports.

METHODS

Two focus groups were conducted among the eight experts and a person with stroke to develop adaptive sports. To test the feasibility of these adaptive sports, in a multi methods study eighteen community dwelling adults with stroke were recruited. Participants played adaptive sports twice a week for two months in a community center. Participants pre and post intervention PA levels and QoL were measured. Participants were also interviewed at the end of the program to explore their experiences of participation in adaptive sports.

RESULTS

At the end of the program retention rate of the participants was 83.33% and there was a significant improvement in PA levels, while the improvement in QoL was not statistically significant. Participants expressed positive experience with the program. There were no adverse events during or after the participation. Health benefits, fitness, and fun were reported as facilitators, while lack of access to the sporting facility and lack of caregiver support were reported as barriers to participation.

CONCLUSION

Adaptive sports appear to be safe, feasible, and well accepted by the adults with stroke.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 has targeted elimination of preventable child mortality, reduction of neonatal death to less than 12 per 1000 livebirths, and reduction of death of children younger than 5 years to less than 25 per 1000 livebirths, for each country by 2030. To understand current rates, recent trends, and potential trajectories of child mortality for the next decade, we present the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 findings for all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality in children younger than 5 years of age, with multiple scenarios for child mortality in 2030 that include the consideration of potential effects of COVID-19, and a novel framework for quantifying optimal child survival.

METHODS

We completed all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality analyses from 204 countries and territories for detailed age groups separately, with aggregated mortality probabilities per 1000 livebirths computed for neonatal mortality rate (NMR) and under-5 mortality rate (U5MR). Scenarios for 2030 represent different potential trajectories, notably including potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the potential impact of improvements preferentially targeting neonatal survival. Optimal child survival metrics were developed by age, sex, and cause of death across all GBD location-years. The first metric is a global optimum and is based on the lowest observed mortality, and the second is a survival potential frontier that is based on stochastic frontier analysis of observed mortality and Healthcare Access and Quality Index.

FINDINGS

Global U5MR decreased from 71·2 deaths per 1000 livebirths (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 68·3-74·0) in 2000 to 37·1 (33·2-41·7) in 2019 while global NMR correspondingly declined more slowly from 28·0 deaths per 1000 live births (26·8-29·5) in 2000 to 17·9 (16·3-19·8) in 2019. In 2019, 136 (67%) of 204 countries had a U5MR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold and 133 (65%) had an NMR at or below the SDG 3.2 threshold, and the reference scenario suggests that by 2030, 154 (75%) of all countries could meet the U5MR targets, and 139 (68%) could meet the NMR targets. Deaths of children younger than 5 years totalled 9·65 million (95% UI 9·05-10·30) in 2000 and 5·05 million (4·27-6·02) in 2019, with the neonatal fraction of these deaths increasing from 39% (3·76 million [95% UI 3·53-4·02]) in 2000 to 48% (2·42 million; 2·06-2·86) in 2019. NMR and U5MR were generally higher in males than in females, although there was no statistically significant difference at the global level. Neonatal disorders remained the leading cause of death in children younger than 5 years in 2019, followed by lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, congenital birth defects, and malaria. The global optimum analysis suggests NMR could be reduced to as low as 0·80 (95% UI 0·71-0·86) deaths per 1000 livebirths and U5MR to 1·44 (95% UI 1·27-1·58) deaths per 1000 livebirths, and in 2019, there were as many as 1·87 million (95% UI 1·35-2·58; 37% [95% UI 32-43]) of 5·05 million more deaths of children younger than 5 years than the survival potential frontier.

INTERPRETATION

Global child mortality declined by almost half between 2000 and 2019, but progress remains slower in neonates and 65 (32%) of 204 countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, are not on track to meet either SDG 3.2 target by 2030. Focused improvements in perinatal and newborn care, continued and expanded delivery of essential interventions such as vaccination and infection prevention, an enhanced focus on equity, continued focus on poverty reduction and education, and investment in strengthening health systems across the development spectrum have the potential to substantially improve U5MR. Given the widespread effects of COVID-19, considerable effort will be required to maintain and accelerate progress.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Relationship between Trunk Position Sense and Trunk Control in Children with Spastic Cerebral Palsy: A Cross-Sectional Study

METHODS

In this study, 24 children with spastic CP aged between 8 and 15 years were recruited. They were classified based on their functional performance using Gross Motor Function Classification System (GMFCS). Trunk control and trunk position sense were assessed using the trunk control measurement scale (TCMS) and digital goniometer, respectively. The correlation between these variables was tested using Spearman's correlation coefficient.

RESULTS

Significant negative correlation was found between trunk position sense and TCMS score. Similarly, a significant moderate correlation was found between trunk position sense and GMFCS. A strong negative correlation was also found between GMFCS and TCMS.

CONCLUSION

Children with spastic CP with better trunk position sense had better trunk control. Similarly, children with higher functional performance had better trunk control and lesser error in trunk position sense. The current findings imply the relevance of proprioceptive training of the trunk for enhancing trunk motor control in children with spastic CP.

Public Health Dentist: An Untapped Potential during COVID-19 Pandemic

To date, the 21st century has encountered various outbreaks, causing global disruption and highlighting our vulnerability to epidemics. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is a highly infectious respiratory illness. Approximately 15% of the affected individuals show severe symptoms requiring oxygen, and of these, 5% require ventilation. This pandemic has affected more than 216 countries or territories (by 20th September 2020), infecting more than 30.6 million people; hitherto, 950000 deaths have been reported. This public health emergency has created a disproportionate burden on the health care system worldwide. Therefore, the management and resolution of this critical situations require the mobilisation of excessive human resources for rapid response, and time is essential in the management of this crisis. Together, these factors contribute to the rapid capacity development with the minimal investment of time and resources, which requires the deployment of an existing skilled workforce, such as public health dentists. These dentists have administrative capabilities and can work in coherence with the community and other health professionals. The present review aims to highlight the areas in which the untapped potential of Public Health Dentists can be explored to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic.

Patient treatment pathways of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis cases in coastal South India: Road to a drug resistant tuberculosis center

Background: Delays in initiating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) treatment adds risk to individual patients and the community due to disease progression, and on-going transmission. The Government of India offers free TB diagnosis and treatment, however many presumptive MDR TB patients wander within the Indian healthcare system and delay accessing the programme. To improve access to care, it is imperative to understand the treatment pathways taken by MDR TB patients. We aimed to describe the diagnostic and treatment pathway taken by presumptive MDR TB patients registered under Programmatic Management of Drug-resistant TB Program.

Methods: We conducted a cross-sectional study amongst patients registered during August 2016 – April 2017 at one District Drug Resistance Tuberculosis centre of Dakshina Kannada district in Karnataka, India. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to collect the number, type (private and public sector), and dates of healthcare facilities (HCFs) visits prior to the initiation of MDR TB treatment. Delays in pathway were measured in days and summarised as median and interquartile range (IQR), from the date of onset of illness until the initiation of MDR TB treatment.

Results: We found that patients preferred private HCFs; however, due to lack of treatment and unaffordability they shifted to public HCFs. Median delay to register under the program was more in private HCFs (180 days) in comparison with public HCFs (120 days). We also found that the detection rates were much higher in public HCFs (80%).

Conclusion: The present study found that there was substantial patient delay and total delay in diagnosis and treatment of MDR TB patients. Private HCF was first point of contact for most of the patients; however those visited public HCF diagnosed earlier as compared to others. The government should involve private HCFs to provide standard diagnostics and treatment to the patients seeking a private facility.