Impact of LS Mutation on Pharmacokinetics of Preventive HIV Broadly Neutralizing Monoclonal Antibodies: A Cross-Protocol Analysis of 16 Clinical Trials in People without HIV

Monoclonal antibodies are commonly engineered with an introduction of Met428Leu and Asn434Ser, known as the LS mutation, in the fragment crystallizable region to improve pharmacokinetic profiles. The LS mutation delays antibody clearance by enhancing binding affinity to the neonatal fragment crystallizable receptor found on endothelial cells. To characterize the LS mutation for monoclonal antibodies targeting HIV, we compared pharmacokinetic parameters between parental versus LS variants for five pairs of anti-HIV immunoglobin G1 monoclonal antibodies (VRC01/LS/VRC07-523LS, 3BNC117/LS, PGDM1400/LS PGT121/LS, 10-1074/LS), analyzing data from 16 clinical trials of 583 participants without HIV. We described serum concentrations of these monoclonal antibodies following intravenous or subcutaneous administration by an open two-compartment disposition, with first-order elimination from the central compartment using non-linear mixed effects pharmacokinetic models. We compared estimated pharmacokinetic parameters using the targeted maximum likelihood estimation method, accounting for participant differences. We observed lower clearance rate, central volume, and peripheral volume of distribution for all LS variants compared to parental monoclonal antibodies. LS monoclonal antibodies showed several improvements in pharmacokinetic parameters, including increases in the elimination half-life by 2.7- to 4.1-fold, the dose-normalized area-under-the-curve by 4.1- to 9.5-fold, and the predicted concentration at 4 weeks post-administration by 3.4- to 7.6-fold. Results suggest a favorable pharmacokinetic profile of LS variants regardless of HIV epitope specificity. Insights support lower dosages and/or less frequent dosing of LS variants to achieve similar levels of antibody exposure in future clinical applications.

mRNA-Based Vaccines Are Highly Immunogenic and Confer Protection in the Gnotobiotic Pig Model of Human Rotavirus Diarrhea

Human rotavirus (HRV) is still a leading cause of severe dehydrating gastroenteritis globally, particularly in infants and children. Previously, we demonstrated the immunogenicity of mRNA-based HRV vaccine candidates expressing the viral spike protein VP8* in rodent models. In the present study, we assessed the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of two mRNA-based HRV trivalent vaccine candidates, encoding VP8* of the genotypes P[8], P[6], or P[4], in the gnotobiotic (Gn) pig model of Wa (G1P[8]) HRV infection and diarrhea. Vaccines either encoded VP8* alone fused to the universal T-cell epitope P2 (P2-VP8*) or expressed P2-VP8* as a fusion protein with lumazine synthase (LS-P2-VP8*) to allow the formation and secretion of protein particles that present VP8* on their surface. Gn pigs were randomly assigned into groups and immunized three times with either P2-VP8* (30 µg) or LS-P2-VP8* (30 µg or 12 µg). A trivalent alum-adjuvanted P2-VP8* protein vaccine or an LNP-formulated irrelevant mRNA vaccine served as the positive and negative control, respectively. Upon challenge with virulent Wa HRV, a significantly shortened duration and decreased severity of diarrhea and significant protection from virus shedding was induced by both mRNA vaccine candidates compared to the negative control. Both LS-P2-VP8* doses induced significantly higher VP8*-specific IgG antibody titers in the serum after immunizations than the negative as well as the protein control. The P[8] VP8*-specific IgG antibody-secreting cells in the ileum, spleen, and blood seven days post-challenge, as well as VP8*-specific IFN-γ-producing T-cell numbers increased in all three mRNA-vaccinated pig groups compared to the negative control. Overall, there was a clear tendency towards improved responses in LS-P2-VP8* compared to the P2-VP8*mRNA vaccine. The demonstrated strong humoral immune responses, priming for effector T cells, and the significant reduction of viral shedding and duration of diarrhea in Gn pigs provide a promising proof of concept and may provide guidance for the further development of mRNA-based rotavirus vaccines.

Establishing RTS,S/AS01 as a benchmark for comparison to next-generation malaria vaccines in a mouse model

New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include vaccines targeting the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To improve upon the malaria vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of next-generation vaccines against this benchmark. We focus on RTS,S/AS01-induced antibody responses and functional activity in conjunction with robust statistical analyses. Transgenic Plasmodium berghei sporozoites containing full-length P. falciparum CSP (tgPb-PfCSP) allow two assessments of efficacy: quantitative reduction in liver infection following intravenous challenge, and sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Two or three doses of RTS,S/AS01 were given intramuscularly at 3-week intervals, with challenge 2-weeks after the last vaccination. Minimal inter- and intra-assay variability indicates the reproducibility of the methods. Importantly, the range of this model is suitable for screening more potent vaccines. Levels of induced anti-CSP antibody 2A10 equivalency were also associated with activity: 105 μg/mL (95% CI: 68.8, 141) reduced liver infection by 50%, whereas 285 μg/mL (95% CI: 166, 404) is required for 50% sterile protection from mosquito bite challenge. Additionally, the liver burden model was able to differentiate between protected and non-protected human plasma samples from a controlled human malaria infection study, supporting these models' relevance and predictive capability. Comparison in animal models of CSP-based vaccine candidates to RTS,S/AS01 is now possible under well controlled conditions. Assessment of the quality of induced antibodies, likely a determinant of durability of protection in humans, should be possible using these methods.

High monoclonal neutralization titers reduced breakthrough HIV-1 viral loads in the Antibody Mediated Prevention trials

The Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials (NCT02716675 and NCT02568215) demonstrated that passive administration of the broadly neutralizing monoclonal antibody VRC01 could prevent some HIV-1 acquisition events. Here, we use mathematical modeling in a post hoc analysis to demonstrate that VRC01 influenced viral loads in AMP participants who acquired HIV. Instantaneous inhibitory potential (IIP), which integrates VRC01 serum concentration and VRC01 sensitivity of acquired viruses in terms of both IC50 and IC80, follows a dose-response relationship with first positive viral load (p = 0.03), which is particularly strong above a threshold of IIP = 1.6 (r = -0.6, p = 2e-4). Mathematical modeling reveals that VRC01 activity predicted from in vitro IC80s and serum VRC01 concentrations overestimates in vivo neutralization by 600-fold (95% CI: 300-1200). The trained model projects that even if future therapeutic HIV trials of combination monoclonal antibodies do not always prevent acquisition, reductions in viremia and reservoir size could be expected.

Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT80) biomarker-which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual's serum against an HIV-1 isolate-can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

Optimizing clinical dosing of combination broadly neutralizing antibodies for HIV prevention

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) are promising agents to prevent HIV infection and achieve HIV remission without antiretroviral therapy (ART). As with ART, bNAb combinations are likely needed to cover HIV's extensive diversity. Not all bNAbs are identical in terms of their breadth, potency, and in vivo longevity (half-life). Given these differences, it is important to optimally select the composition, or dose ratio, of combination bNAb therapies for future clinical studies. We developed a model that synthesizes 1) pharmacokinetics, 2) potency against a wide HIV diversity, 3) interaction models for how drugs work together, and 4) correlates that translate in vitro potency to clinical protection. We found optimization requires drug-specific balances between potency, longevity, and interaction type. As an example, tradeoffs between longevity and potency are shown by comparing a combination therapy to a bi-specific antibody (a single protein merging both bNAbs) that takes the better potency but the worse longevity of the two components. Then, we illustrate a realistic dose ratio optimization of a triple combination of VRC07, 3BNC117, and 10-1074 bNAbs. We apply protection estimates derived from both a non-human primate (NHP) challenge study meta-analysis and the human antibody mediated prevention (AMP) trials. In both cases, we find a 2:1:1 dose emphasizing VRC07 is nearly optimal. Our approach can be immediately applied to optimize the next generation of combination antibody prevention and cure studies.

Estimation of the in vivo neutralization potency of eCD4Ig and conditions for AAV-mediated production for SHIV long-term remission

The engineered protein eCD4Ig has emerged as a promising approach to achieve HIV remission in the absence of antiviral therapy. eCD4Ig neutralizes nearly all HIV-1 isolates and induces antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (ADCC) in vitro. To characterize the in vivo antiviral neutralization and possible ADCC effects of eCD4Ig, we fit mathematical models to eCD4Ig, anti–eCD4Ig-drug antibody (ADA), and viral load kinetics from healthy and simian-human immunodeficiency virus AD8 (SHIV-AD8) infected nonhuman primates that were treated with single or sequentially dosed eCD4Ig passive administrations. Our model predicts that eCD4Ig transiently decreases SHIV viral loads due to neutralization only with an in vivo IC₅₀ of ~25 μg/ml but with limited effect due to ADA. Simulations suggest that endogenous, continuous expression of eCD4Ig at levels greater than 10⁵ μg/day, as is possible with Adeno-associated virus (AAV) vector-based production, could overcome the diminishing effects of ADA and allow for long-term remission of SHIV viremia in nonhuman primates.

Safety and immunogenicity of an HIV-1 gp120-CD4 chimeric subunit vaccine in a phase 1a randomized controlled trial

A major challenge for HIV vaccine development is to raise anti-envelope antibodies capable of recognizing and neutralizing diverse strains of HIV-1. Accordingly, a full length single chain (FLSC) of gp120-CD4 chimeric vaccine construct was designed to present a highly conserved CD4-induced (CD4i) HIV-1 envelope structure that elicits cross-reactive anti-envelope humoral responses and protective immunity in animal models of HIV infection. IHV01 is the FLSC formulated in aluminum phosphate adjuvant. We enrolled 65 healthy adult volunteers in this first-in-human phase 1a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study with three dose-escalating cohorts (75 µg, 150 µg, and 300 µg doses). Intramuscular injections were given on weeks 0, 4, 8, and 24. Participants were followed for an additional 24 weeks after the last immunization. The overall incidence of adverse events (AEs) was not significantly different between vaccinees and controls. The majority (89%) of vaccine-related AE were mild. The most common vaccine-related adverse event was injection site pain. There were no vaccine-related serious AE, discontinuation due to AE, intercurrent HIV infection, or significant decreases in CD4 count. By the final vaccination, all vaccine recipients developed antibodies against IHV01 and demonstrated anti-CD4i epitope antibodies. The elicited antibodies reacted with CD4 non-liganded Env antigens from diverse HIV-1 strains. Antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity against heterologous infected cells or gp120 bound to CD4+ cells was evident in all cohorts as were anti-gp120 T-cell responses. IHV01 vaccine was safe, well tolerated, and immunogenic at all doses tested. The vaccine raised broadly reactive humoral responses against conserved CD4i epitopes on gp120 that mediates antiviral functions.

Timing HIV infection with a simple and accurate population viral dynamics model

Clinical trials for HIV prevention can require knowledge of infection times to subsequently determine protective drug levels. Yet, infection timing is difficult when study visits are sparse. Using population nonlinear mixed-effects (pNLME) statistical inference and viral loads from 46 RV217 study participants, we developed a relatively simple HIV primary infection model that achieved an excellent fit to all data. We also discovered that Aptima assay values from the study strongly correlated with viral loads, enabling imputation of very early viral loads for 28/46 participants. Estimated times between infecting exposures and first positives were generally longer than prior estimates (average of two weeks) and were robust to missing viral upslope data. On simulated data, we found that tighter sampling before diagnosis improved estimation more than tighter sampling after diagnosis. Sampling weekly before and monthly after diagnosis was a pragmatic design for good timing accuracy. Our pNLME timing approach is widely applicable to other infections with existing mathematical models. The present model could be used to simulate future HIV trials and may help estimate protective thresholds from the recently completed antibody-mediated prevention trials.

Viral load and contact heterogeneity predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during pre-symptomatic infection. Unlike influenza, most SARS-CoV-2-infected people do not transmit while a small percentage infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models which link observed viral loads with epidemiologic features of each virus, including distribution of transmissions attributed to each infected person and duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person. We identify that people infected with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza can be highly contagious for less than 1 day, congruent with peak viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events occur when an infected person is shedding at a very high viral load and has a high number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 toward super-spreading events cannot be attributed to additional weeks of shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks, likely due to aerosolization.

Thresholds for post-rebound SHIV control after CCR5 gene-edited autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation

Autologous, CCR5 gene-edited hematopoietic stem and progenitor cell (HSPC) transplantation is a promising strategy for achieving HIV remission. However, only a fraction of HSPCs can be edited ex vivo to provide protection against infection. To project the thresholds of CCR5-edition necessary for HIV remission, we developed a mathematical model that recapitulates blood T cell reconstitution and plasma simian-HIV (SHIV) dynamics from SHIV-1157ipd3N4-infected pig-tailed macaques that underwent autologous transplantation with CCR5 gene editing. The model predicts that viral control can be obtained following analytical treatment interruption (ATI) when: (1) transplanted HSPCs are at least fivefold higher than residual endogenous HSPCs after total body irradiation and (2) the fraction of protected HSPCs in the transplant achieves a threshold (76–94%) sufficient to overcome transplantation-dependent loss of SHIV immunity. Under these conditions, if ATI is withheld until transplanted gene-modified cells engraft and reconstitute to a steady state, spontaneous viral control is projected to occur.

Wrong person, place and time: viral load and contact network structure predict SARS-CoV-2 transmission and super-spreading events

SARS-CoV-2 is difficult to contain because many transmissions occur during the pre-symptomatic phase of infection. Moreover, in contrast to influenza, while most SARS-CoV-2 infected people do not transmit the virus to anybody, a small percentage secondarily infect large numbers of people. We designed mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza which link observed viral shedding patterns with key epidemiologic features of each virus, including distributions of the number of secondary cases attributed to each infected person (individual R0) and the duration between symptom onset in the transmitter and secondarily infected person (serial interval). We identify that people with SARS-CoV-2 or influenza infections are usually contagious for fewer than one day congruent with peak viral load several days after infection, and that transmission is unlikely below a certain viral load. SARS-CoV-2 super-spreader events with over 10 secondary infections occur when an infected person is briefly shedding at a very high viral load and has a high concurrent number of exposed contacts. The higher predisposition of SARS-CoV-2 towards super-spreading events is not due to its 1-2 additional weeks of viral shedding relative to influenza. Rather, a person infected with SARS-CoV-2 exposes more people within equivalent physical contact networks than a person infected with influenza, likely due to aerosolization of virus. Our results support policies that limit crowd size in indoor spaces and provide viral load benchmarks for infection control and therapeutic interventions intended to prevent secondary transmission.

Characterization of two in vivo challenge models to measure functional activity of monoclonal antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein

BACKGROUND

New strategies are needed to reduce the incidence of malaria, and promising approaches include the development of vaccines and monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) that target the circumsporozoite protein (CSP). To select the best candidates and speed development, it is essential to standardize preclinical assays to measure the potency of such interventions in animal models.

METHODS

Two assay configurations were studied using transgenic Plasmodium berghei expressing Plasmodium falciparum full-length circumsporozoite protein. The assays measured (1) reduction in parasite infection of the liver (liver burden) following an intravenous (i.v) administration of sporozoites and (2) protection from parasitaemia following mosquito bite challenge. Two human CSP mAbs, AB311 and AB317, were compared for their ability to inhibit infection. Multiple independent experiments were conducted to define assay variability and resultant impact on the ability to discriminate differences in mAb functional activity.

RESULTS

Overall, the assays produced highly consistent results in that all individual experiments showed greater functional activity for AB317 compared to AB311 as calculated by the dose required for 50% inhibition (ID50) as well as the serum concentration required for 50% inhibition (IC50). The data were then used to model experimental designs with adequate statistical power to rigorously screen, compare, and rank order novel anti-CSP mAbs.

CONCLUSION

The results indicate that in vivo assays described here can provide reliable information for comparing the functional activity of mAbs. The results also provide guidance regarding selection of the appropriate experimental design, dose selection, and group sizes.

Mathematical modeling to reveal breakthrough mechanisms in the HIV Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials

The ongoing Antibody Mediated Prevention (AMP) trials will uncover whether passive infusion of the broadly neutralizing antibody (bNAb) VRC01 can protect against HIV acquisition. Previous statistical simulations indicate these trials may be partially protective. In that case, it will be crucial to identify the mechanism of breakthrough infections. To that end, we developed a mathematical modeling framework to simulate the AMP trials and infer the breakthrough mechanisms using measurable trial outcomes. This framework combines viral dynamics with antibody pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, and will be generally applicable to forthcoming bNAb prevention trials. We fit our model to human viral load data (RV217). Then, we incorporated VRC01 neutralization using serum pharmacokinetics (HVTN 104) and in vitro pharmacodynamics (LANL CATNAP database). We systematically explored trial outcomes by reducing in vivo potency and varying the distribution of sensitivity to VRC01 in circulating strains. We found trial outcomes could be used in a clinical trial regression model (CTRM) to reveal whether partially protective trials were caused by large fractions of VRC01-resistant (IC50>50 μg/mL) circulating strains or rather a global reduction in VRC01 potency against all strains. The former mechanism suggests the need to enhance neutralizing antibody breadth; the latter suggests the need to enhance VRC01 delivery and/or in vivo binding. We will apply the clinical trial regression model to data from the completed trials to help optimize future approaches for passive delivery of anti-HIV neutralizing antibodies.

Infusions of broadly neutralizing antibodies are currently being tested as a novel HIV prevention modality. To help interpret the results of these antibody mediated prevention (AMP) studies we developed a mathematical modeling framework. The approach combines antibody potency and drug levels with models of HIV viral dynamics, which will be generally applicable to future studies. Through simulating these clinical trials, we found trial outcomes can be used in combination to infer whether breakthrough infections are caused by large fractions of antibody-resistant circulating strains or some reduction in potency against all strains. This distinction helps to focus future trials on enhancing neutralizing antibody breadth or antibody delivery and/or in vivo binding.

Recombinant HIV-1 vaccine candidates based on replication-defective flavivirus vector

Multiple approaches utilizing viral and DNA vectors have shown promise in the development of an effective vaccine against HIV. In this study, an alternative replication-defective flavivirus vector, RepliVax (RV), was evaluated for the delivery of HIV-1 immunogens. Recombinant RV-HIV viruses were engineered to stably express clade C virus Gag and Env (gp120TM) proteins and propagated in Vero helper cells. RV-based vectors enabled efficient expression and correct maturation of Gag and gp120TM proteins, were apathogenic in a sensitive suckling mouse neurovirulence test, and were similar in immunogenicity to recombinant poxvirus NYVAC-HIV vectors in homologous or heterologous prime-boost combinations in mice. In a pilot NHP study, immunogenicity of RV-HIV viruses used as a prime or boost for DNA or NYVAC candidates was compared to a DNA prime/NYVAC boost benchmark scheme when administered together with adjuvanted gp120 protein. Similar neutralizing antibody titers, binding IgG titers measured against a broad panel of Env and Gag antigens, and ADCC responses were observed in the groups throughout the course of the study, and T cell responses were elicited. The entire data demonstrate that RV vectors have the potential as novel HIV-1 vaccine components for use in combination with other promising candidates to develop new effective vaccination strategies.

Sm-p80-based schistosomiasis vaccine: double-blind preclinical trial in baboons demonstrates comprehensive prophylactic and parasite transmission-blocking efficacy

Schistosomiasis is of public health importance to an estimated one billion people in 79 countries. A vaccine is urgently needed. Here, we report the results of four independent, double-blind studies of an Sm-p80-based vaccine in baboons. The vaccine exhibited potent prophylactic efficacy against transmission of Schistosoma mansoni infection and was associated with significantly less egg-induced pathology, compared with unvaccinated control animals. Specifically, the vaccine resulted in a 93.45% reduction of pathology-producing female worms and significantly resolved the major clinical manifestations of hepatic/intestinal schistosomiasis by reducing the tissue egg-load by 89.95%. A 35-fold decrease in fecal egg excretion in vaccinated animals, combined with an 81.51% reduction in hatching of eggs into the snail-infective stage (miracidia), demonstrates the parasite transmission-blocking potential of the vaccine. Substantially higher Sm-p80 expression in female worms and Sm-p80-specific antibodies in vaccinated baboons appear to play an important role in vaccine-mediated protection. Preliminary analyses of RNA sequencing revealed distinct molecular signatures of vaccine-induced effects in baboon immune effector cells. This study provides comprehensive evidence for the effectiveness of an Sm-p80-based vaccine for schistosomiasis.

Viral diversity is an obligate consideration in CRISPR/Cas9 designs for targeting the HIV reservoir

BACKGROUND

RNA-guided CRISPR/Cas9 systems can be designed to mutate or excise the integrated HIV genome from latently infected cells and have therefore been proposed as a curative approach for HIV. However, most studies to date have focused on molecular clones with ideal target site recognition and do not account for target site variability observed within and between patients. For clinical success and broad applicability, guide RNA (gRNA) selection must account for circulating strain diversity and incorporate the within-host diversity of HIV.

RESULTS

We identified a set of gRNAs targeting HIV LTR, gag, and pol using publicly available sequences for these genes and ranked gRNAs according to global conservation across HIV-1 group M and within subtypes A-C. By considering paired and triplet combinations of gRNAs, we found triplet sets of target sites such that at least one of the gRNAs in the set was present in over 98% of all globally available sequences. We then selected 59 gRNAs from our list of highly conserved LTR target sites and evaluated in vitro activity using a loss-of-function LTR-GFP fusion reporter. We achieved efficient GFP knockdown with multiple gRNAs and found clustering of highly active gRNA target sites near the middle of the LTR. Using published deep-sequence data from HIV-infected patients, we found that globally conserved sites also had greater within-host target conservation. Lastly, we developed a mathematical model based on varying distributions of within-host HIV sequence diversity and enzyme efficacy. We used the model to estimate the number of doses required to deplete the latent reservoir and achieve functional cure thresholds. Our modeling results highlight the importance of within-host target site conservation. While increased doses may overcome low target cleavage efficiency, inadequate targeting of rare strains is predicted to lead to rebound upon cART cessation even with many doses.

CONCLUSIONS

Target site selection must account for global and within host viral genetic diversity. Globally conserved target sites are good starting points for design, but multiplexing is essential for depleting quasispecies and preventing viral load rebound upon therapy cessation.

Nonprimary Maternal Cytomegalovirus Infection After Viral Shedding in Infants

BACKGROUND

Most infants with congenital Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection are born to seropositive women as a result of maternal CMV nonprimary infection (reinfection or reactivation). Although infected children are known to transmit CMV to their seronegative mothers, the frequency and magnitude of nonprimary maternal CMV infection after exposure to viral shedding by children in their household have not been characterized.

METHODS

A cohort of Ugandan newborns and their mothers were tested weekly for CMV by quantitative polymerase chain reaction of oral swabs. Infant primary infection and maternal nonprimary infection were defined by the onset of persistent high-level oral CMV shedding. Strain-specific antibody testing was used to assess maternal reinfection. Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates were used to evaluate risk factors for nonprimary maternal infection.

RESULTS

Nonprimary CMV infection occurred in 15 of 30 mothers, all after primary infection of their infants by a median of 6 weeks (range: 1-10) in contrast to none of the mothers of uninfected infants. The median duration of maternal oral shedding lasted 18 weeks (range: 4-42) reaching a median maximum viral load of 4.69 log copies/mL (range: 3.22-5.64). Previous-week infant CMV oral quantities strongly predicted maternal nonprimary infection (hazard ratio: 2.32 per log10 DNA copies/swab increase; 95% confidence interval: 1.63-3.31). Maternal nonprimary infections were not associated with changes in strain-specific antibody responses.

CONCLUSIONS

Nonprimary CMV infection was common in mothers after primary infection in their infants, consistent with infant-to-mother transmission. Because infants frequently acquire CMV from their mothers, for example, through breast milk, this suggests the possibility of "ping-pong" infections. Additional research is needed to characterize the antigenic and genotypic strains transmitted among children and their mothers.

Kinetics of Double-Stranded DNA Viremia After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

Background

Improved understanding of double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) virus kinetics after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) would facilitate development of therapeutic strategies.

Methods

We tested weekly plasma samples from 404 patients through day 100 after allogeneic HCT for cytomegalovirus (CMV), human herpesvirus (HHV) 6A and 6B, BK polyomavirus (BKV), adenovirus (AdV), and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Episodes lasting ≤1 week were defined as blips and >1 week as persistent. We described virus-specific kinetics, analyzed the association of virus area under the curve (AUC) with overall mortality, and identified risk factors for persistent episodes.

Results

We identified 428 episodes of CMV, 292 of BKV, 224 of HHV-6B, 46 of AdV, and 53 of EBV. CMV and BKV had the highest proportions of persistent episodes (68% and 80%, respectively). Detection and kinetics varied by virus. HHV-6B episodes reached maximum levels fastest and had the shortest intervals between detection and end-organ disease. End-organ disease occurred within 14 days of viremia in 68% of cases, generally during persistent episodes. For all viruses, higher viral load AUC increased risk for overall mortality through day 365, persistent episodes had higher viral load than blips, and higher first positive viral load significantly increased risk for persistent episodes. First viral load >2 log10 copies/mL (range, 2.04-3.06 per virus) had high specificity for persistent episodes.

Conclusions

Persistent high viral load dsDNA viremia episodes after allogeneic HCT predict mortality. Virus-specific kinetics can guide timing and thresholds for early intervention in studies of novel agents.

Virus and host-specific differences in oral human herpesvirus shedding kinetics among Ugandan women and children

Human herpesviruses (HHV) establish lifelong latent infection and are transmitted primarily via shedding at mucosal surfaces. Each HHV causes a unique spectrum of disease depending on the infected individual’s age and immunity. We collected weekly oral swabs from young children and mothers in 32 Ugandan households for a median of one year. We characterized kinetics of oral shedding during primary and chronic infection for each virus. Cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and HHV-6 were shed at high rates following primary infection. The rate of oral herpes simplex virus (HSV) shedding was lower overall, and children and mothers with chronic HSV infection had lower shedding rates than children with primary infection. CMV shedding rate and viral load were higher in children with primary infection compared to children with chronic infection, and even lower in mothers with chronic infection. HHV-6 shedding rate and viral load were similar between children with primary or chronic infection, but lower in mothers. EBV shedding rate and quantity decreased less dramatically in mothers versus children, with HIV-positive mothers shedding at a higher rate than HIV-negative mothers. Each HHV has a distinct pattern of oral shedding which depends partially on the age and immune status of the host.

Dynamics of Persistent Oral Cytomegalovirus Shedding During Primary Infection in Ugandan Infants

Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection occurs frequently in young children, who, when infected, are then a major source of transmission. Oral CMV shedding by 14 infants with primary infection was comprehensively characterized using quantitative polymerase chain reaction weekly for ≥9 months. Three phases of oral shedding were identified: expansion, transition, and clearance. Viral expansion occurred over a median of 7 weeks, with a median doubling time of 3 days. During the transition phase, expansion slowed over a median of 6 weeks before peak viral load was reached. Clearance was slow (22-day median half-life), and shedding did not resolve during observation for any infant. Mathematical modeling demonstrated that prolonged oral CMV expansion is explained by a low within-host reproduction number (median, 1.63) and a delayed immune response that only decreases the infected cell half-life by 44%. Thus, the prolonged oral CMV shedding observed during primary infection can be explained by slow viral expansion and inefficient immunologic control.

Rapid and Profound Shifts in the Vaginal Microbiota Following Antibiotic Treatment for Bacterial Vaginosis

BACKGROUND

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a common polymicrobial disease associated with numerous negative reproductive health outcomes, including an increased risk of human immunodeficiency virus acquisition. BV is treatable with antibiotics, but relapse is common. A more detailed understanding of bacterial dynamics during antibiotic therapy for BV could identify conditions that favor establishment, maintenance, and eradication of BV-associated bacterial species, thereby improving treatment outcomes.

METHODS

We used mathematical models to analyze daily quantitative measurements of 11 key bacterial species during metronidazole treatment for 15 cases of BV.

RESULTS

We identified complete reorganization of vaginal bacterial composition within a day of initiating therapy. Although baseline bacterial levels predicted a longer time to clearance, all anaerobic species were eliminated rapidly within a median of 3 days. However, reemergence of BV-associated species was common following treatment cessation. Gardnerella vaginalis, a facultative anaerobe, was cleared more slowly than anaerobic BV-associated species, and levels of G. vaginalis often rebounded during treatment. We observed gradual Lactobacillus species growth, indicating that untargeted microbes fill the transient vacuum formed during treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

Under antibiotic pressure, the human microbiome can undergo rapid shifts on a scale of hours. When treatment is stopped, BV-associated bacteria quickly reemerge, suggesting a possible role for intermittent prophylactic treatment.

Herpes simplex virus-2 transmission probability estimates based on quantity of viral shedding

Herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 is periodically shed in the human genital tract, most often asymptomatically, and most sexual transmissions occur during asymptomatic shedding. It would be helpful to identify a genital viral load threshold necessary for transmission, as clinical interventions that maintain viral quantity below this level would be of high utility. However, because viral expansion, decay and re-expansion kinetics are extremely rapid during shedding episodes, it is impossible to directly measure genital viral load at the time of sexual activity. We developed a mathematical model based on reproducing shedding patterns in transmitting partners, and median number of sex acts prior to transmission in discordant couples, to estimate infectivity of single viral particles in the negative partner's genital tract. We then inferred probability estimates for transmission at different levels of genital tract viral load in the transmitting partner. We predict that transmission is unlikely at viral loads less than 10(4) HSV DNA copies. Moreover, most transmissions occur during prolonged episodes with high viral copy numbers. Many shedding episodes that result in transmission do not reach the threshold of clinical detection, because the ulcer remains very small, highlighting one reason why HSV-2 spreads so effectively within populations.

Successes and shortcomings of polio eradication: a transmission modeling analysis

Polio eradication is on the cusp of success, with only a few regions still maintaining transmission. Improving our understanding of why some regions have been successful and others have not will help with both global eradication of polio and development of more effective vaccination strategies for other pathogens. To examine the past 25 years of eradication efforts, we constructed a transmission model for wild poliovirus that incorporates waning immunity (which affects both infection risk and transmissibility of any resulting infection), age-mediated vaccination rates, and transmission of oral polio vaccine. The model produces results consistent with the 4 country categories defined by the Global Polio Eradication Program: elimination with no subsequent outbreaks; elimination with subsequent transient outbreaks; elimination with subsequent outbreaks and transmission detected for more than 12 months; and endemic polio transmission. Analysis of waning immunity rates and oral polio vaccine transmissibility reveals that higher waning immunity rates make eradication more difficult because of increasing numbers of infectious adults, and that higher oral polio vaccine transmission rates make eradication easier as adults become reimmunized. Given these dynamic properties, attention should be given to intervention strategies that complement childhood vaccination. For example, improvement in sanitation can reduce the reproduction number in problematic regions, and adult vaccination can lower adult transmission.

A dynamic dose-response model to account for exposure patterns in risk assessment: a case study in inhalation anthrax

The most commonly used dose-response models implicitly assume that accumulation of dose is a time-independent process where each pathogen has a fixed risk of initiating infection. Immune particle neutralization of pathogens, however, may create strong time dependence; i.e. temporally clustered pathogens have a better chance of overwhelming the immune particles than pathogen exposures that occur at lower levels for longer periods of time. In environmental transmission systems, we expect different routes of transmission to elicit different dose-timing patterns and thus potentially different realizations of risk. We present a dose-response model that captures time dependence in a manner that incorporates the dynamics of initial immune response. We then demonstrate the parameter estimation of our model in a dose-response survival analysis using empirical time-series data of inhalational anthrax in monkeys in which we find slight dose-timing effects. Future dose-response experiments should include varying the time pattern of exposure in addition to varying the total doses delivered. Ultimately, the dynamic dose-response paradigm presented here will improve modelling of environmental transmission systems where different systems have different time patterns of exposure.