Examining inequalities in spatial access to national health insurance fund contracted facilities in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Kenya aims to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) by 2030 and has selected the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) as the 'vehicle' to drive the UHC agenda. While there is some progress in moving the country towards UHC, the availability and accessibility to NHIF-contracted facilities may be a barrier to equitable access to care. We estimated the spatial access to NHIF-contracted facilities in Kenya to provide information to advance the UHC agenda in Kenya.

METHODS

We merged NHIF-contracted facility data to the geocoded inventory of health facilities in Kenya to assign facility geospatial locations. We combined this database with covariates data including road network, elevation, land use, and travel barriers. We estimated the proportion of the population living within 60- and 120-minute travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility at a 1-x1-kilometer spatial resolution nationally and at county levels using the WHO AccessMod tool.

RESULTS

We included a total of 3,858 NHIF-contracted facilities. Nationally, 81.4% and 89.6% of the population lived within 60- and 120-minute travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility respectively. At the county level, the proportion of the population living within 1-hour of travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility ranged from as low as 28.1% in Wajir county to 100% in Nyamira and Kisii counties. Overall, only four counties (Kiambu, Kisii, Nairobi and Nyamira) had met the target of having 100% of their population living within 1-hour (60 min) travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility. On average, it takes 209, 210 and 216 min to travel to an NHIF-contracted facility, outpatient and inpatient facilities respectively. At the county level, travel time to an NHIF-contracted facility ranged from 10 min in Vihiga County to 333 min in Garissa.

CONCLUSION

Our study offers evidence of the spatial access estimates to NHIF-contracted facilities in Kenya that can inform contracting decisions by the social health insurer, especially focussing on marginalised counties where more facilities need to be contracted. Besides, this evidence will be crucial as the country gears towards accelerating progress towards achieving UHC using social health insurance as the strategy to drive the UHC agenda in Kenya.

Prevalence of Trachomatous Trichiasis in Ten Evaluation Units of Embu and Kitui Counties, Kenya

BACKGROUND

Late-stage blinding sequalae of trachoma such as trachomatous trichiasis (TT) typically take decades to develop and often do so in the absence of ongoing ocular Chlamydia trachomatis infection. This suggests that most TT risk accumulates in early life; as a result, population-level TT incidence and prevalence can remain high years after C. trachomatis transmission among children has decreased. In Embu and Kitui counties, Kenya, the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation - follicular is low in children. In this survey, we set out to determine the prevalence of TT in ten evaluation units (EUs) in these counties.

METHODS

We undertook ten cross-sectional prevalence surveys for TT. In each EU, people aged ≥15 years were selected by a two-stage cluster sampling method and examined for TT. Those with TT were asked questions on whether they had been offered management for it. Prevalence was adjusted to the underlying age and gender structure of the population.

RESULTS

A total of 18,987 people aged ≥15 years were examined. Per EU, the median number of examined participants was 1,656 (range: 1,451 - 3,016) and median response rate was 86% (range: 81 - 95%). The prevalence of TT unknown to the health system in people aged ≥15 years was above the threshold for elimination (≥0.2%) in all ten EUs studied (range: 0.2-0.7%). TT was significantly more common in older than younger individuals and in women than in men.

DISCUSSION

Provision of surgical services should be strengthened in Embu and Kitui counties of Kenya to achieve the World Health Organization threshold for eliminating TT as a public health problem.

Examining multiple funding flows to public healthcare providers in low- and middle-income countries - results from case studies in Burkina Faso, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Tunisia and Vietnam

Provider payment methods are traditionally examined by appraising the incentive signals inherent in individual payment mechanisms. However, mixed payment arrangements, which result in multiple funding flows from purchasers to providers, could be better understood by applying a systems approach that assesses the combined effects of multiple payment streams on healthcare providers. Guided by the framework developed by Barasa et al. (2021) (Barasa E, Mathauer I, Kabia E et al. 2021. How do healthcare providers respond to multiple funding flows? A conceptual framework and options to align them. Health Policy and Planning  36: 861-8.), this paper synthesizes the findings from six country case studies that examined multiple funding flows and describes the potential effect of multiple payment streams on healthcare provider behaviour in low- and middle-income countries. The qualitative findings from this study reveal the extent of undesirable provider behaviour occurring due to the receipt of multiple funding flows and explain how certain characteristics of funding flows can drive the occurrence of undesirable behaviours. Service and resource shifting occurred in most of the study countries; however, the occurrence of cost shifting was less evident. The perceived adequacy of payment rates was found to be the strongest driver of provider behaviour in the countries examined. The study results indicate that undesirable provider behaviours can have negative impacts on efficiency, equity and quality in healthcare service provision. Further empirical studies are required to add to the evidence on this link. In addition, future research could explore how governance arrangements can be used to coordinate multiple funding flows, mitigate unfavourable consequences and identify issues associated with the implementation of relevant governance measures.

Budget monitoring, accountability practices and their influence on the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya

Public Finance Management (PFM) practices influence the attainment of health system goals. PFM processes are implemented within the budget cycle which entails the formulation, execution, and monitoring of government budgets. Budget monitoring and accountability actors, structures, and processes are important in improving the efficiency of health systems. This study examined how the budget monitoring and accountability processes influence the efficiency of county health systems in KenyaWe conducted a qualitative case study of four counties in Kenya selected based on their relative technical efficiency. We collected data using in-depth interviews with health and finance stakeholders (n = 70), and document reviews. We analyzed data using a thematic approach, informed by our study conceptual framework. We found that weak budget monitoring and accountability mechanisms compromised county health system efficiency by a) weakening the effective implementation of the budget formulation and execution steps of the budget cycle, b) enabling the misappropriation of public resources, and c) limiting evidence-informed decision-making by weakening feedback that would be provided by effective monitoring and accountability. Devolution meant that accountability actors were closer to implementation actors which promoted timely problem solving and the relevance of solutions. Internal audit practices were supportive and provided useful feedback to health system managers that facilitated improvements in budget formulation and execution. The efficiency of county health systems can be improved by strengthening the budget monitoring and accountability processes. This can be achieved by increasing the population's budget literacy, supporting participatory budgeting, synchronizing performance and financial accountability, implementing the existent budget monitoring and accountability mechanisms, rewarding efficiency, and sanctioning inefficiency.

Exploring the Adaptations of the Free Maternity Policy Implementation by Health Workers and County Officials in Kenya

BACKGROUND

In 2017, Kenya launched the free maternity policy (FMP) that aimed to provide all pregnant women access to maternal services in private, faith-based, and levels 3-6 public institutions. We explored the adaptive strategies health care workers (HCWs) and county officials used to bridge the implementation challenges and achieve the FMP objectives.

METHODS

We conducted an exploratory qualitative study using Lipsky's theoretical framework in 3 facilities (levels 3, 4, and 5) in Kiambu County, Kenya. The study involved in-depth interviews (n=21) with county officials, facility in-charges and HCWs, and key informants from national and development partner agencies. Data were audio-recorded, transcribed, and analyzed using a framework thematic approach.

RESULTS

The results show that HCWs and county officials applied several strategies that were critical in shaping the policymaking, working practice, and professionalism and ethical aspects of the FMP. Strategies of policymaking: hospitals employed additional staff, and the county developed bylaws to strengthen the flow of funds. Strategies of working practice: hospitals and HCWs enhanced patient referrals, and facilities enhanced communication. Strategies of professionalism and ethics: nurses registered and provided service to mothers, and facilities included employees in planning and budgeting. Maladaptations included facilities having leeway to provide FMP services to populations who were excluded from the policy but had to bear the costs. Some discharged mothers immediately after birth, even before offering the fully costed policy benefits, to avoid incurring additional costs.

CONCLUSIONS

The role of policy implementers and the built-in flexibility and agility in implementing the FMP could enhance service delivery, manage the administrative pressures of implementation, and provide mothers with personalized, responsive service. However, despite their benefits, some resulting unintended consequences may need interventions.

Impact of COVID-19 on mortality in coastal Kenya: a longitudinal open cohort study

The mortality impact of COVID-19 in Africa remains controversial because most countries lack vital registration. We analysed excess mortality in Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Kenya, using 9 years of baseline data. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence studies suggest most adults here were infected before May 2022. During 5 waves of COVID-19 (April 2020-May 2022) an overall excess mortality of 4.8% (95% PI 1.2%, 9.4%) concealed a significant excess (11.6%, 95% PI 5.9%, 18.9%) among older adults ( ≥ 65 years) and a deficit among children aged 1-14 years (-7.7%, 95% PI -20.9%, 6.9%). The excess mortality rate for January 2020-December 2021, age-standardised to the Kenyan population, was 27.4/100,000 person-years (95% CI 23.2-31.6). In Coastal Kenya, excess mortality during the pandemic was substantially lower than in most high-income countries but the significant excess mortality in older adults emphasizes the value of achieving high vaccine coverage in this risk group.

The impact of COVID-19 on health financing in Kenya

Sudden shocks to health systems, such as the COVID-19 pandemic may disrupt health system functions. Health system functions may also influence the health system's ability to deliver in the face of sudden shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the impact of COVID-19 on the health financing function in Kenya, and how specific health financing arrangements influenced the health systems capacity to deliver services during the COVID-19 pandemic.We conducted a cross-sectional study in three purposively selected counties in Kenya using a qualitative approach. We collected data using in-depth interviews (n = 56) and relevant document reviews. We interviewed national level health financing stakeholders, county department of health managers, health facility managers and COVID-19 healthcare workers. We analysed data using a framework approach. Purchasing arrangements: COVID-19 services were partially subsidized by the national government, exposing individuals to out-of-pocket costs given the high costs of these services. The National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) adapted its enhanced scheme's benefit package targeting formal sector groups to include COVID-19 services but did not make any adaptations to its general scheme targeting the less well-off in society. This had potential equity implications. Public Finance Management (PFM) systems: Nationally, PFM processes were adaptable and partly flexible allowing shorter timelines for budget and procurement processes. At county level, PFM systems were partially flexible with some resource reallocation but maintained centralized purchasing arrangements. The flow of funds to counties and health facilities was delayed and the procurement processes were lengthy. Reproductive and child health services: Domestic and donor funds were reallocated towards the pandemic response resulting in postponement of program activities and affected family planning service delivery. Universal Health Coverage (UHC) plans: Prioritization of UHC related activities was negatively impacted due the shift of focus to the pandemic response. Contrarily the strategic investments in the health sector were found to be a beneficial approach in strengthening the health system. Strengthening health systems to improve their resilience to cope with public health emergencies requires substantial investment of financial and non-financial resources. Health financing arrangements are integral in determining the extent of adaptability, flexibility, and responsiveness of health system to COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Exploring COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and uptake in Nairobi's urban informal settlements: an unsupervised machine learning analysis of a longitudinal prospective cohort study from 2021 to 2022

OBJECTIVES

To illustrate the utility of unsupervised machine learning compared with traditional methods of analysis by identifying archetypes within the population that may be more or less likely to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

DESIGN

A longitudinal prospective cohort study (n=2009 households) with recurring phone surveys from 2020 to 2022 to assess COVID-19 knowledge, attitudes and practices. Vaccine questions were added in 2021 (n=1117) and 2022 (n=1121) rounds.

SETTING

Five informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals from 2009 households included.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

Respondents were asked about COVID-19 vaccine acceptance (February 2021) and vaccine uptake (March 2022). Three distinct clusters were estimated using K-Means clustering and analysed against vaccine acceptance and vaccine uptake outcomes using regression forest analysis.

RESULTS

Despite higher educational attainment and fewer concerns regarding the pandemic, young adults (cluster 3) were less likely to intend to get the vaccine compared with cluster 1 (41.5% vs 55.3%, respectively; p<0.01). Despite believing certain COVID-19 myths, older adults with larger households and more fears regarding economic impacts of the pandemic (cluster 1) were more likely to ultimately to get vaccinated than cluster 3 (78% vs 66.4%; p<0.01), potentially due to employment requirements. Middle-aged women who are married or divorced and reported higher risk of gender-based violence in the home (cluster 2) were more likely than young adults (cluster 3) to report wanting to get the vaccine (50.5% vs 41.5%; p=0.014) but not more likely to have gotten it (69.3% vs 66.4%; p=0.41), indicating potential gaps in access and broader need for social support for this group.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings suggest this methodology can be a useful tool to characterise populations, with utility for improving targeted policy, programmes and behavioural messaging to promote uptake of healthy behaviours and ensure equitable distribution of prevention measures.

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and implications for population immunity: Evidence from two Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Kenya, February-December 2022

BACKGROUND

We sought to estimate SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence within representative samples of the Kenyan population during the third year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the second year of COVID-19 vaccine use.

METHODS

We conducted cross-sectional serosurveys among randomly selected, age-stratified samples of Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) residents in Kilifi and Nairobi. Anti-spike (anti-S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) serostatus was measured using a validated in-house ELISA and antibody concentrations estimated with reference to the WHO International Standard for anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin.

RESULTS

HDSS residents were sampled in February-June 2022 (Kilifi HDSS N = 852; Nairobi Urban HDSS N = 851) and in August-December 2022 (N = 850 for both sites). Population-weighted coverage for ≥1 doses of COVID-19 vaccine were 11.1% (9.1-13.2%) among Kilifi HDSS residents by November 2022 and 34.2% (30.7-37.6%) among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents by December 2022. Population-weighted anti-S IgG seroprevalence among Kilifi HDSS residents increased from 69.1% (65.8-72.3%) by May 2022 to 77.4% (74.4-80.2%) by November 2022. Within the Nairobi Urban HDSS, seroprevalence by June 2022 was 88.5% (86.1-90.6%), comparable with seroprevalence by December 2022 (92.2%; 90.2-93.9%). For both surveys, seroprevalence was significantly lower among Kilifi HDSS residents than among Nairobi Urban HDSS residents, as were antibody concentrations (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

More than 70% of Kilifi residents and 90% of Nairobi residents were seropositive for anti-S IgG by the end of 2022. There is a potential immunity gap in rural Kenya; implementation of interventions to improve COVID-19 vaccine uptake among sub-groups at increased risk of severe COVID-19 in rural settings is recommended.

Health system resilience: a critical review and reconceptualisation

This Viewpoint brings together insights from health system experts working in a range of settings. Our focus is on examining the state of the resilience field, including current thinking on definitions, conceptualisation, critiques, measurement, and capabilities. We highlight the analytical value of resilience, but also its risks, which include neglect of equity and of who is bearing the costs of resilience strategies. Resilience depends crucially on relationships between system actors and components, and-as amply shown during the COVID-19 pandemic-relationships with wider systems (eg, economic, political, and global governance structures). Resilience is therefore connected to power imbalances, which need to be addressed to enact the transformative strategies that are important in dealing with more persistent shocks and stressors, such as climate change. We discourage the framing of resilience as an outcome that can be measured; instead, we see it emerge from systemic resources and interactions, which have effects that can be measured. We propose a more complex categorisation of shocks than the common binary one of acute versus chronic, and outline some of the implications of this for resilience strategies. We encourage a shift in thinking from capacities towards capabilities-what actors could do in future with the necessary transformative strategies, which will need to encompass global, national, and local change. Finally, we highlight lessons emerging in relation to preparing for the next crisis, particularly in clarifying roles and avoiding fragmented governance.

Assessing the choice of National Health Insurance Fund contracted outpatient facilities in Kenya: A qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

To assess National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) members' level of understanding, experiences, and factors influencing their choice of NHIF-contracted outpatient facilities in Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional qualitative study with NHIF members in two purposefully selected counties (Nyeri and Makueni counties) in Kenya. We collected data through 15 focus group discussions with NHIF members. Data were analysed using a framework analysis approach.

RESULTS

Urban-based NHIF members had a good understanding of the NHIF-contracted outpatient facility selection process and the approaches for choosing and changing providers, unlike their rural counterparts. While NHIF members were required to choose a provider before accessing care, the number of available alternative facilities was perceived to be inadequate. Finally, NHIF members identified seven factors they considered important when choosing an NHIF-contracted outpatient provider. Of these factors, the availability of drugs, distance from the household to the facility and waiting time at the facility until consultation were considered the most important.

CONCLUSION

There is a need for the NHIF to prioritise awareness-raising approaches tailored to rural settings. Further, there is a need for the NHIF to contract more providers to both spur competition among providers and provide alternatives for members to choose from. Besides, NHIF members revealed the important factors they consider when selecting outpatient facilities. Consequently, NHIF should leverage the preferred factors when contracting healthcare providers. Similarly, healthcare providers should enhance the availability of drugs, reduce waiting times whilst improving their staff's attitudes which would improve user satisfaction and the quality of care provided.

Examining the responsiveness of the National Health Insurance Fund to people living with hypertension and diabetes in Kenya: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVES

To assess the responsiveness of the National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) Supa Cover benefit package to the needs of individuals with diabetes and hypertension in Kenya.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

We carried out a qualitative study and collected data using key informant interviews (n=39) and focus group discussions (n=4) in two purposively selected counties in Western Kenya. Study participants were drawn from NHIF officials, county government officials, health facility managers, healthcare workers and individuals with hypertension and diabetes who were enrolled in NHIF. We analysed data using a thematic approach.

RESULTS

Study participants reported that the NHIF Supa Cover benefit package expanded access to services for people living with hypertension and diabetes. However, the NHIF members and healthcare workers had inadequate awareness of the NHIF service entitlements. The NHIF benefit package inadequately covered the range of services needed by people living with hypertension and diabetes and the benefits package did not prioritise preventive and promotive services. Sometimes patients were discriminated against by healthcare providers who preferred cash-paying patients, and some NHIF-empanelled health facilities had inadequate structural inputs essential for quality of care. Study participants felt that the NHIF premium for the general scheme was unaffordable, and NHIF members faced additional out-of-pocket costs because of additional payments for services not available or covered.

CONCLUSION

Whereas NHIF has reduced financial barriers for hypertension and diabetes patients, to enhance its responsiveness to patient needs, NHIF should implement mechanisms to increase benefit package awareness among members and providers. In addition, preventive and promotive services should be included in NHIF's benefits package and mechanisms to monitor and hold contracted providers accountable should be strengthened.

Factors influencing institutionalization of health technology assessment in Kenya

BACKGROUND

There is a global interest in institutionalizing health technology assessment (HTA) as an approach for explicit healthcare priority-setting. Institutionalization of HTA refers to the process of conducting and utilizing HTA as a normative practice for guiding resource allocation decisions within the health system. In this study, we aimed to examine the factors that were influencing institutionalization of HTA in Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative case study using document reviews and in-depth interviews with 30 participants involved in the HTA institutionalization process in Kenya. We used a thematic approach to analyze the data.

RESULTS

We found that institutionalization of HTA in Kenya was being supported by factors such as establishment of organizational structures for HTA; availability of legal frameworks and policies on HTA; increasing availability of awareness creation and capacity-building initiatives for HTA; policymakers' interests in universal health coverage and optimal allocation of resources; technocrats' interests in evidence-based processes; presence of international collaboration for HTA; and lastly, involvement of bilateral agencies. On the other hand, institutionalization of HTA was being undermined by limited availability of skilled human resources, financial resources, and information resources for HTA; lack of HTA guidelines and decision-making frameworks; limited HTA awareness among subnational stakeholders; and industries' interests in safeguarding their revenue.

CONCLUSIONS

Kenya's Ministry of Health can facilitate institutionalization of HTA by adopting a systemic approach that involves: - (a) introducing long-term capacity-building initiatives to strengthen human and technical capacity for HTA; (b) earmarking national health budgets to ensure adequate financial resources for HTA; (c) introducing a cost database and promoting timely data collection to ensure availability of data for HTA; (d) developing context specific HTA guidelines and decision-making frameworks to facilitate HTA processes; (e) conducting deeper advocacy to strengthen HTA awareness among subnational stakeholders; and (f) managing stakeholders' interests to minimize opposition to institutionalization of HTA.

Evaluating the effectiveness of the National Health Insurance Fund in providing financial protection to households with hypertension and diabetes patients in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) can impose a substantial financial burden to households in the absence of an effective financial risk protection mechanism. The national health insurance fund (NHIF) has included NCD services in its national scheme. We evaluated the effectiveness of NHIF in providing financial risk protection to households with persons living with hypertension and/or diabetes in Kenya.

METHODS

We carried out a prospective cohort study, following 888 households with at least one individual living with hypertension and/or diabetes for 12 months. The exposure arm comprised households that are enrolled in the NHIF national scheme, while the control arm comprised households that were not enrolled in the NHIF. Study participants were drawn from two counties in Kenya. We used the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) as the outcome of interest. We used coarsened exact matching and a conditional logistic regression model to analyse the odds of CHE among households enrolled in the NHIF compared with unenrolled households. Socioeconomic inequality in CHE was examined using concentration curves and indices.

RESULTS

We found strong evidence that NHIF-enrolled households spent a lower share (12.4%) of their household budget on healthcare compared with unenrolled households (23.2%) (p = 0.004). While households that were enrolled in NHIF were less likely to incur CHE, we did not find strong evidence that they are better protected from CHE compared with households without NHIF (OR = 0.67; p = 0.47). The concentration index (CI) for CHE showed a pro-poor distribution (CI: -0.190, p < 0.001). Almost half (46.9%) of households reported active NHIF enrolment at baseline but this reduced to 10.9% after one year, indicating an NHIF attrition rate of 76.7%. The depth of NHIF cover (i.e., the share of out-of-pocket healthcare costs paid by NHIF) among households with active NHIF was 29.6%.

CONCLUSION

We did not find strong evidence that the NHIF national scheme is effective in providing financial risk protection to households with individuals living with hypertension and/diabetes in Kenya. This could partly be explained by the low depth of cover of the NHIF national scheme, and the high attrition rate. To enhance NHIF effectiveness, there is a need to revise the NHIF benefit package to include essential hypertension and/diabetes services, review existing provider payment mechanisms to explicitly reimburse these services, and extend the existing insurance subsidy programme to include individuals in the informal labour market.

Cost Effectiveness of Strategies for Caring for Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19 in Tanzania

BACKGROUND

The resources for critical care are limited in many settings, exacerbating the significant morbidity and mortality associated with critical illness. Budget constraints can lead to choices between investing in advanced critical care (e.g. mechanical ventilators in intensive care units) or more basic critical care such as Essential Emergency and Critical Care (EECC; e.g. vital signs monitoring, oxygen therapy, and intravenous fluids).

METHODS

We investigated the cost effectiveness of providing EECC and advanced critical care in Tanzania in comparison with providing 'no critical care' or 'district hospital-level critical care' using coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a tracer condition. We developed an open-source Markov model ( https://github.com/EECCnetwork/POETIC_CEA ) to estimate costs and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted, using a provider perspective, a 28-day time horizon, patient outcomes obtained from an elicitation method involving a seven-member expert group, a normative costing study, and published literature. We performed a univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our results.

, RESULTS

EECC is cost effective 94% and 99% of the time when compared with no critical care (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $37 [-$9 to $790] per DALY averted) and district hospital-level critical care (ICER $14 [-$200 to $263] per DALY averted), respectively, relative to the lowest identified estimate of the willingness-to-pay threshold for Tanzania ($101 per DALY averted). Advanced critical care is cost effective 27% and 40% of the time, when compared with the no critical care or district hospital-level critical care scenarios, respectively.

CONCLUSION

For settings where there is limited or no critical care delivery, implementation of EECC could be a highly cost-effective investment. It could reduce mortality and morbidity for critically ill COVID-19 patients, and its cost effectiveness falls within the range considered 'highly cost effective'. Further research is needed to explore the potential of EECC to generate even greater benefits and value for money when patients with diagnoses other than COVID-19 are accounted for.

Examining the influence of health sector coordination on the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Health systems are complex, consisting of multiple interacting structures and actors whose effective coordination is paramount to enhancing health system goals. Health sector coordination is a potential source of inefficiency in the health sector. We examined how the coordination of the health sector affects health system efficiency in Kenya.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative cross-sectional study, collecting data at the national level and in two purposely selected counties in Kenya. We collected data using in-depth interviews (n = 37) with national and county-level respondents, and document reviews. We analyzed the data using a thematic approach.

RESULTS

The study found that while formal coordination structures exist in the Kenyan health system, duplication, fragmentation, and misalignment of health system functions and actor actions compromise the coordination of the health sector. These challenges were observed in both vertical (coordination within the ministry of health, within the county departments of health, and between the national ministry of health and the county department of health) and horizontal coordination mechanisms (coordination between the ministry of health or the county department of health and non-state partners, and coordination among county governments). These coordination challenges are likely to impact the efficiency of the Kenyan health system by increasing the transaction costs of health system functions. Inadequate coordination also impairs the implementation of health programmes and hence compromises health system performance.

CONCLUSION

The efficiency of the Kenyan health system could be enhanced by strengthening the coordination of the Kenyan health sector. This can be achieved by aligning and harmonizing the intergovernmental and health sector-specific coordination mechanisms, strengthening the implementation of the Kenya health sector coordination framework at the county level, and enhancing donor coordination through common funding arrangements and integrating vertical disease programs with the rest of the health system. The ministry of health and county departments of health should also review internal organizational structures to enhance functional and role clarity of organizational units and staff, respectively. Finally, counties should consider initiating health sector coordination mechanisms between counties to reduce the fragmentation of health system functions across neighboring counties.

Examining the influence of budget execution processes on the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya

Public financial management (PFM) processes are a driver of health system efficiency. PFM happens within the budget cycle which entails budget formulation, execution and accountability. At the budget execution phase, budgets are implemented by spending as planned to generate a desired output or outcome. Understanding how the budget execution processes influence the use of inputs and the outcomes that result is important for maximizing efficiency. This study sought to explain how the budget execution processes influence the efficiency of health systems, an area that is understudied, using a case study of county health systems in Kenya. We conducted a concurrent mixed methods case study using counties classified as relatively efficient (n = 2) and relatively inefficient (n = 2). We developed a conceptual framework from a literature review to guide the development of tools and analysis. We collected qualitative data through document reviews and in-depth interviews (n = 70) with actors from health and finance sectors at the national and county level. We collected quantitative data from secondary sources, including budgets and budget reports. We analysed qualitative data using the thematic approach and carried out descriptive analyses on quantitative data. The budget execution processes within counties in Kenya were characterized by poor budget credibility, cash disbursement delays, limited provider autonomy and poor procurement practices. These challenges were linked to an inappropriate input mix that compromised the capacity of county health systems to deliver health-care services, misalignment between county health needs and the use of resources, reduced staff motivation and productivity, procurement inefficiencies and reduced county accountability for finances and performance. The efficiency of county health systems in Kenya can be enhanced by improving budget credibility, cash disbursement processes, procurement processes and provider autonomy.

Analysing the Efficiency of Health Systems: A Systematic Review of the Literature

BACKGROUND

Efficiency refers the use of resources in ways that optimise desired outcomes. Health system efficiency is a priority concern for policy makers globally as countries aim to achieve universal health coverage, and face the additional challenge of an aging population. Efficiency analysis in the health sector has typically focused on the efficiency of healthcare facilities (hospitals, primary healthcare facilities), with few studies focusing on system level (national or sub-national) efficiency. We carried out a thematic review of literature that assessed the efficiency of health systems at the national and sub-national level.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic search of PubMed and Google scholar between 2000 and 2021 and a manual search of relevant papers selected from their reference lists. A total of 131 papers were included. We analysed and synthesised evidence from the selected papers using a thematic approach (selecting, sorting, coding and charting collected data according to identified key issues and themes).

FINDINGS

There were more publications from high- and upper middle-income countries (53%) than from low-income and lower middle-income countries. There were also more publications focusing on national level (60%) compared to sub-national health systems' efficiency. Only 6% of studies used either qualitative methods or mixed methods while 94% used quantitative approaches. Data envelopment analysis, a non-parametric method, was the most common methodological approach used, followed by stochastic frontier analysis, a parametric method. A range of regression methods were used to identify the determinants of health system efficiency. While studies used a range of inputs, these generally considered the building blocks of health systems, health risk factors, and social determinants of health. Outputs used in efficiency analysis could be classified as either intermediate health service outputs (e.g., number of health facility visits), single health outcomes (e.g., infant mortality rate) or composite indices of either intermediate outputs of health outcomes (e.g., Health Adjusted Life Expectancy). Factors that were found to affect health system efficiency include demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population, macro-economic characteristics of the national and sub-national regions, population health and wellbeing, the governance and political characteristics of these regions, and health system characteristics.

CONCLUSION

This review highlights the limited evidence on health system efficiency, especially in low- and middle-income countries. It also reveals the dearth of efficiency studies that use mixed methods approaches by incorporating qualitative inquiry. The review offers insights on the drivers of the efficiency of national and sub-national health systems, and highlights potential targets for reforms to improve health system efficiency.

Political Prioritisation for Performance-Based Financing at the County Level in Kenya: 2015 to 2018

BACKGROUND

Performance based financing was introduced to Kilifi county in Kenya in 2015. This study investigates how and why political and bureaucratic actors at the local level in Kilifi county influenced the extent to which PBF was politically prioritised at the sub-national level.

METHODS

The study employed a single-case study design. The Shiffman and Smith political priority setting framework with adaptations proposed by Walt and Gilson was applied. Data was collected through document review (n=19) and in-depth interviews (n=8). Framework analysis was used to analyse data and generate findings.

RESULTS

In the period 2015-2018, the political prioritisation of PBF at the county level in Kilifi was influenced by contextual features including the devolution of power to sub-national actors and rigid public financial management structures. It was further influenced by interpretations of the idea of 'pay-for-performance', its framing as 'additional funding', as well as contestation between actors at the sub national level about key PBF design features. Ultimately PBF ceased at the end of 2018 after donor funding stopped.

CONCLUSION

Health reformers must be cognisant of the power and interests of national and sub national actors in all phases of the policy process, including both bureaucratic and political actors in health and non-health sectors. This is particularly important in devolved public governance contexts where reforms require sustained attention and budgetary commitment at the sub national level. There is also need for early involvement of critical actors to develop shared understandings of the ideas on which interventions are premised, as well as problems and solutions.

Essential emergency and critical care as a health system response to critical illness and the COVID19 pandemic: what does it cost?

Essential Emergency and Critical Care (EECC) is a novel approach to the care of critically ill patients, focusing on first-tier, effective, low-cost, life-saving care and designed to be feasible even in low-resourced and low-staffed settings. This is distinct from advanced critical care, usually conducted in ICUs with specialised staff, facilities and technologies. This paper estimates the incremental cost of EECC and advanced critical care for the planning of care for critically ill patients in Tanzania and Kenya.The incremental costing took a health systems perspective. A normative approach based on the ingredients defined through the recently published global consensus on EECC was used. The setting was a district hospital in which the patient is provided with the definitive care typically provided at that level for their condition. Quantification of resource use was based on COVID-19 as a tracer condition using clinical expertise. Local prices were used where available, and all costs were converted to USD2020.The costs per patient day of EECC is estimated to be 1 USD, 11 USD and 33 USD in Tanzania and 2 USD, 14 USD and 37 USD in Kenya, for moderate, severe and critical COVID-19 patients respectively. The cost per patient day of advanced critical care is estimated to be 13 USD and 294 USD in Tanzania and USD 17 USD and 345 USD in Kenya for severe and critical COVID-19 patients, respectively.EECC is a novel approach for providing the essential care to all critically ill patients. The low costs and lower tech approach inherent in delivering EECC mean that EECC could be provided to many and suggests that prioritizing EECC over ACC may be a rational approach when resources are limited.

Understanding the treatment burden of people with chronic conditions in Kenya: A cross-sectional analysis using the Patient Experience with Treatment and Self-Management (PETS) questionnaire

In Kenya, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are an increasingly important cause of morbidity and mortality, requiring both better access to health care services and self-care support. Evidence suggests that treatment burdens can negatively affect adherence to treatment and quality of life. In this study, we explored the treatment and self-management burden among people with NCDs in in two counties in Western Kenya. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of people newly diagnosed with diabetes and/or hypertension, using the Patient Experience with Treatment and Self-Management (PETS) instrument. A total of 301 people with diabetes and/or hypertension completed the survey (63% female, mean age = 57 years). They reported the highest treatment burdens in the domains of medical and health care expenses, monitoring health, exhaustion related to self-management, diet and exercise/physical therapy. Treatment burden scores differed by county, age, gender, education, income and number of chronic conditions. Younger respondents (<60 years) reported higher burden for medication side effects (p<0.05), diet (p<0.05), and medical appointments (p = 0.075). Those with no formal education or low income also reported higher burden for diet and for medical expenses. People with health insurance cover reported lower (albeit still comparatively high) burden for medical expenses compared to those without it. Our findings provide important insights for Kenya and similar settings where governments are working to achieve universal health coverage by highlighting the importance of financial protection not only to prevent the economic burden of seeking health care for chronic conditions but also to reduce the associated treatment burden.

Out-of-pocket payments during childbirth in Kenya under the free maternity services: Perspectives of mothers, healthcare workers and county officials

Background: This study seeks to determine the extent of women's out-of-pocket (OOP) payments for delivery under the free maternity policy (FMP).  Methods: We conducted a convergent parallel mixed-methods study using quantitative and qualitative data collection. The study was set in three facilities (levels 3, 4, and 5) in Kiambu County, Kenya. The study involved exit interview (EI) surveys with mothers (n = 553) who utilised FMP delivery services and focus group discussions (FGDs) with mothers who returned for postnatal visits (6, 10, and 14 weeks). There were 21 in-depth interviews (IDIs) with county officials and healthcare workers (HCWs). Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics, while qualitative data were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed using thematic analysis.  Results: Despite the FMP being free on paper, mothers incurred OOP payments in practice. The overall mean OOP payments incurred by mothers who underwent normal delivery was 9.50 USD (SD 8.20 USD), and caesarean section (CS) was 10.88 USD (SD 15.16 USD). The main cost drivers were transport, lack of adequate supply and medications, lack of policy clarity by health workers, failure to notify the NHIF office of available clients, and ultrasound scan services. While the OOP payments were not deemed catastrophic, some women perceived it as a barrier to care as they ended up using savings or selling their assets to meet the costs. There were no patient characteristics associated with OOP payments.  Conclusions: OOP payments during childbirth in Kenya place a considerable economic burden on mothers and their households. There is need to promote awareness of the policy and provide a sustainable form of transport, especially during emergencies, through collaboration with partners. Prioritising the supply of required medication used in maternal services in the universal health care benefits package to which Kenyan citizens are entitled, or sustainably financing the FMP is crucial.

A qualitative evaluation of priority-setting by the Health Benefits Package Advisory Panel in Kenya

Kenya's Ministry of Health established the Health Benefits Package Advisory Panel (HBPAP) in 2018 to develop a benefits package for universal health coverage. This study evaluated HBPAP's process for developing the benefits package against the normative procedural (acceptable way of doing things) and outcome (acceptable consequences) conditions of an ideal healthcare priority-setting process as outlined in the study's conceptual framework. We conducted a qualitative case study using in-depth interviews with national-level respondents (n = 20) and document reviews. Data were analysed using a thematic approach. HBPAP's process partially fulfilled the procedural and outcome conditions of the study's evaluative framework. Concerning the procedural conditions, transparency and publicity were partially met and were limited by the lack of publication of HBPAP's report. While HBPAP used explicit and evidence-based priority-setting criteria, challenges included lack of primary data and local cost-effectiveness threshold, weak health information systems, short timelines and political interference. While a wide range of stakeholders were engaged, this was limited by short timelines and inadequate financial resources. Empowerment of non-HBPAP members was limited by their inadequate technical knowledge and experience in priority-setting. Finally, appeals and revisions were limited by short timelines and lack of implementation of the proposed benefits package. Concerning the outcome conditions, stakeholder understanding was limited by the technical nature of the process and short timelines, while stakeholder acceptance and satisfaction were limited by lack of transparency. HBPAP's benefits package was not implemented due to stakeholder interests and opposition. Priority-setting processes for benefits package development in Kenya could be improved by publicizing the outcome of the process, allocating adequate time and financial resources, strengthening health information systems, generating local evidence and enhancing stakeholder awareness and engagement to increase their empowerment, understanding and acceptance of the process. Managing politics and stakeholder interests is key in enhancing the success of priority-setting processes.

The autonomy of public health facilities in decentralised contexts: insights from applying a complexity lens in Kenya

The financing of public health facilities influences their performance. A key feature that defines health facility financing is the degree of financial autonomy. Understanding the factors that influence public health facility financial autonomy is pertinent to developing strategies to addressing challenges that arise from constrained autonomy. In this paper, we apply a complexity lens to draw on a body of research that we have conducted in Kenya over the past decade, from the onset of devolution reforms, to unpack the determinants of public health facility financial autonomy in a context of decentralisation and provide suggestions for pertinent considerations when designing interventions to address financial autonomy challenges. We find that the factors that affect public health facility autonomy are not only structural, but also procedural, and political and interact in complex ways. These factors include; the public finance management (PFM) laws, sense-making by actors in the health system, political interests in control over resources, subnational level PFM capacity, PFM implementation bottlenecks and broader operational autonomy. Drawing from this analysis, we recommend that efforts at resolving public health facility financial autonomy include: PFM capacity development for subnational levels of government in decentralised settings, the use of a political lens that recognises interests and seeks to align incentives in engagement and solution finding for health facility financial autonomy, the audit of PFM processes to establish and resolve implementation bottlenecks that impinge on public health facility autonomy, and the resolution of operational autonomy to as a facilitator of financial autonomy.

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

Investment in severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing in Africa over the past year has led to a major increase in the number of sequences that have been generated and used to track the pandemic on the continent, a number that now exceeds 100,000 genomes. Our results show an increase in the number of African countries that are able to sequence domestically and highlight that local sequencing enables faster turnaround times and more-regular routine surveillance. Despite limitations of low testing proportions, findings from this genomic surveillance study underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic and illuminate the distinct dispersal dynamics of variants of concern-particularly Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron-on the continent. Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve while the continent faces many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century.

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.

Health policy and systems research capacity development to support maternal, new-born, child and adolescent health in West and Central Africa

Objectives

To examine how and why a South-South capacity development and networking program for leadership, research, practice and advocacy on maternal new-born, child and adolescent health and health policy and systems strengthening in West Africa and Cameroon worked and identify lessons for low- and middle-income countries.

Design

Single qualitative case study drawing on data from document review, observations, key informant interviews and a deliberative workshop. Ethics approval for primary data collection was obtained from the Ghana Health Service Ethical Review Committee (GHS-ERC 012/10/18).

Setting

West Africa and Cameroon.

Participants

Researchers, policy and programme managers and frontline health workers.

Interventions

Networking and capacity development.

Results

The programme made good progress in implementing many but not all planned capacity development and networking activities. The opportunity to network with other organisations and individuals and across countries, disciplines, and languages as well as to learn, to develop skills, and obtain mentorship support, were considered valuable benefits of the partnership. Human and financial resource constraints meant that not all planned interventions could be implemented.

Conclusions

Lessons for health policy and systems research capacity building in LMIC include the potential of South-South partnerships, the need for dedicated resources, the potential of Sub-regional health organizations to support capacity building and recognition that each effort builds on preceding efforts of others, and that it is important to explore and understand where the energy and momentum for change lies.

Funding

The work described here has been funded by IDRC Canada under research grant # 108237 "West and Central African partnership for maternal, new-born, child and adolescent health research."

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in three Kenyan health and demographic surveillance sites, December 2020-May 2021

BACKGROUND

Most of the studies that have informed the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya have relied on samples that are not representative of the general population. We conducted population-based serosurveys at three Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs) to determine the cumulative incidence of infection with SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

We selected random age-stratified population-based samples at HDSSs in Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, in Kenya. Blood samples were collected from participants between 01 Dec 2020 and 27 May 2021. No participant had received a COVID-19 vaccine. We tested for IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein using ELISA. Locally-validated assay sensitivity and specificity were 93% (95% CI 88-96%) and 99% (95% CI 98-99.5%), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates using classical methods and Bayesian modelling to account for the sampling scheme and assay performance.

RESULTS

We recruited 2,559 individuals from the three HDSS sites, median age (IQR) 27 (10-78) years and 52% were female. Seroprevalence at all three sites rose steadily during the study period. In Kisumu, Nairobi and Kilifi, seroprevalences (95% CI) at the beginning of the study were 36.0% (28.2-44.4%), 32.4% (23.1-42.4%), and 14.5% (9.1-21%), and respectively; at the end they were 42.0% (34.7-50.0%), 50.2% (39.7-61.1%), and 24.7% (17.5-32.6%), respectively. Seroprevalence was substantially lower among children (<16 years) than among adults at all three sites (p≤0.001).

CONCLUSION

By May 2021 in three broadly representative populations of unvaccinated individuals in Kenya, seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG was 25-50%. There was wide variation in cumulative incidence by location and age.

Management of human resources for health: implications for health systems efficiency in Kenya

Background

Human resources for health consume a substantial share of healthcare resources and determine the efficiency and overall performance of health systems. Under Kenya’s devolved governance, human resources for health are managed by county governments. The aim of this study was to examine how the management of human resources for health influences the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya.

Methods

We conducted a case study using a mixed methods approach in two purposively selected counties in Kenya. We collected data through in-depth interviews (n = 46) with national and county level HRH stakeholders, and document and secondary data reviews. We analyzed qualitative data using a thematic approach, and quantitative data using descriptive analysis.

Results

Human resources for health in the selected counties was inadequately financed and there were an insufficient number of health workers, which compromised the input mix of the health system. The scarcity of medical specialists led to inappropriate task shifting where nonspecialized staff took on the roles of specialists with potential undesired impacts on quality of care and health outcomes. The maldistribution of staff in favor of higher-level facilities led to unnecessary referrals to higher level (referral) hospitals and compromised quality of primary healthcare. Delayed salaries, non-harmonized contractual terms and incentives reduced the motivation of health workers. All of these effects are likely to have negative effects on health system efficiency.

Conclusions

Human resources for health management in counties in Kenya could be reformed with likely positive implications for county health system efficiency by increasing the level of funding, resolving funding flow challenges to address the delay of salaries, addressing skill mix challenges, prioritizing the allocation of health workers to lower-level facilities, harmonizing the contractual terms and incentives of health workers, and strengthening monitoring and supervision.

Epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in Kenya

BACKGROUND

A few studies have assessed the epidemiological impact and the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in settings where most of the population had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya from a societal perspective over a 1.5-year time frame. An age-structured transmission model assumed at least 80% of the population to have prior natural immunity when an immune escape variant was introduced. We examine the effect of slow (18 months) or rapid (6 months) vaccine roll-out with vaccine coverage of 30%, 50% or 70% of the adult (>18 years) population prioritising roll-out in those over 50-years (80% uptake in all scenarios). Cost data were obtained from primary analyses. We assumed vaccine procurement at US$7 per dose and vaccine delivery costs of US$3.90-US$6.11 per dose. The cost-effectiveness threshold was US$919.11.

FINDINGS

Slow roll-out at 30% coverage largely targets those over 50 years and resulted in 54% fewer deaths (8132 (7914-8373)) than no vaccination and was cost saving (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio, ICER=US$-1343 (US$-1345 to US$-1341) per disability-adjusted life-year, DALY averted). Increasing coverage to 50% and 70%, further reduced deaths by 12% (810 (757-872) and 5% (282 (251-317) but was not cost-effective, using Kenya's cost-effectiveness threshold (US$919.11). Rapid roll-out with 30% coverage averted 63% more deaths and was more cost-saving (ICER=US$-1607 (US$-1609 to US$-1604) per DALY averted) compared with slow roll-out at the same coverage level, but 50% and 70% coverage scenarios were not cost-effective.

INTERPRETATION

With prior exposure partially protecting much of the Kenyan population, vaccination of young adults may no longer be cost-effective.

Improving facility-based care: eliciting tacit knowledge to advance intervention design

Attention has turned to improving the quality and safety of healthcare within health facilities to reduce avoidable mortality and morbidity. Interventions should be tested in health system environments that can support their adoption if successful. To be successful, interventions often require changes in multiple behaviours making their consequences unpredictable. Here, we focus on this challenge of change at the mesolevel or microlevel. Drawing on multiple insights from theory and our own empirical work, we highlight the importance of engaging managers, senior and frontline staff and potentially patients to explore foundational questions examining three core resource areas. These span the physical or material resources available, workforce capacity and capability and team and organisational relationships. Deficits in all these resource areas may need to be addressed to achieve success. We also argue that as inertia is built into the complex social and human systems characterising healthcare facilities that thought on how to mobilise five motive forces is needed to help achieve change. These span goal alignment and ownership, leadership for change, empowering key actors, promoting responsive planning and procurement and learning for transformation. Our aim is to bridge the theory-practice gap and offer an entry point for practical discussions to elicit the critical tacit and contextual knowledge needed to design interventions. We hope that this may improve the chances that interventions are successful and so contribute to better facility-based care and outcomes while contributing to the development of learning health systems.

Integrating economic and health evidence to inform Covid-19 policy in low- and middle- income countries

Covid-19 requires policy makers to consider evidence on both population health and economic welfare. Over the last two decades, the field of health economics has developed a range of analytical approaches and contributed to the institutionalisation of processes to employ economic evidence in health policy. We present a discussion outlining how these approaches and processes need to be applied more widely to inform Covid-19 policy; highlighting where they may need to be adapted conceptually and methodologically, and providing examples of work to date. We focus on the evidential and policy needs of low- and middle-income countries; where there is an urgent need for evidence to navigate the policy trade-offs between health and economic well-being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

A Data-Driven Analysis of the Economic Cost of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions: A Cross-Country Comparison of Kenya, Singapore, and Thailand

Objective: To estimate the economic impact of border closure and social distancing by estimating the decline of gross domestic product (GDP) in Kenya, Singapore and Thailand.

Methods: We analysed secondary data retrospectively. To calculate impact of NPIs on GDP, the relationship between GDP and stock market index was examined using ordinary least squares (OLS). Then, autoregressive and moving averages (ARMA) model was used to examine the impact of NPI on stock market index. The change in GDP due to NPIs was derived by multiplying coefficients of OLS and ARMA models.

Results: An increase in stock market index correlated with an increase in GDP, while both social distancing and border closure negatively correlated with stock market index. Implementation of NPIs correlated with the decline in GDP. Thai border closure had a greater decline in GDP than social distancing; Kenya exhibited the same trends; Singapore had the opposite trend.

Conclusion: We quantified the magnitude of economic impact of NPIs in terms of GDP decline by linking stock market index and GDP. This approach may be applicable in other settings.

Experiences of and response to the COVID-19 pandemic at private retail pharmacies in Kenya: a mixed-methods study

OBJECTIVES

To assess experiences of and response to the COVID-19 pandemic at community pharmacies in Kenya.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a mixed-methods study conducted from November 2020 to April 2021, targeting service providers in three counties (Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu), selected purposively to represent the main urban centres; pharmacies were selected randomly from a list of licensed pharmacies.

RESULTS

Of 195 sampled pharmacies, 108 (55%) completed a questionnaire and 103 (53%) received a simulated client call; 18 service providers were interviewed. The initial weeks of the pandemic were characterised by fear and panic among service providers and a surge in client flow. Subsequently, 65 (60%) of 108 pharmacies experienced a dip in demand to below prepandemic levels and 34 (31%) reported challenges with unavailability, high price and poor quality of products. Almost all pharmacies were actively providing preventive materials and therapies; educating clients on prevention measures; counselling anxious clients; and handling and referring suspect cases. Fifty-nine pharmacies (55% (95% CI 45% to 65%)) reported receiving a client asking for COVID-19 testing and a similar proportion stated they would support pharmacy-based testing if implemented. For treatment of simulated clients, most pharmacies (71%, 73 of 103) recommended alternative therapies and nutritional supplements such as vitamin C; the rest recommended conventional therapies such as antibiotics. While 52 (48%) of 108 pharmacies had at least one staff member trained on COVID-19, a general feeling of disconnection from the national programme prevailed.

CONCLUSIONS

Private pharmacies in Kenya were actively contributing to the COVID-19 response, but more deliberate engagement, support and linkages are required. Notably, there is an urgent need to develop guidelines for pharmacy-based COVID-19 testing, a service that is clearly needed and which could greatly increase test coverage. Pharmacy-based COVID-19 programmes should be accompanied with implementation research to inform current and future pandemic responses.

Transmission networks of SARS-CoV-2 in Coastal Kenya during the first two waves: A retrospective genomic study

Background

Detailed understanding of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) regional transmission networks within sub-Saharan Africa is key for guiding local public health interventions against the pandemic.

Methods

Here, we analysed 1139 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from positive samples collected between March 2020 and February 2021 across six counties of Coastal Kenya (Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Tana River, and Lamu) to infer virus introductions and local transmission patterns during the first two waves of infections. Virus importations were inferred using ancestral state reconstruction, and virus dispersal between counties was estimated using discrete phylogeographic analysis.

Results

During Wave 1, 23 distinct Pango lineages were detected across the six counties, while during Wave 2, 29 lineages were detected; 9 of which occurred in both waves and 4 seemed to be Kenya specific (B.1.530, B.1.549, B.1.596.1, and N.8). Most of the sequenced infections belonged to lineage B.1 (n = 723, 63%), which predominated in both Wave 1 (73%, followed by lineages N.8 [6%] and B.1.1 [6%]) and Wave 2 (56%, followed by lineages B.1.549 [21%] and B.1.530 [5%]). Over the study period, we estimated 280 SARS-CoV-2 virus importations into Coastal Kenya. Mombasa City, a vital tourist and commercial centre for the region, was a major route for virus imports, most of which occurred during Wave 1, when many Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) government restrictions were still in force. In Wave 2, inter-county transmission predominated, resulting in the emergence of local transmission chains and diversity.

Conclusions

Our analysis supports moving COVID-19 control strategies in the region from a focus on international travel to strategies that will reduce local transmission.

Funding

This work was funded by The Wellcome (grant numbers: 220985, 203077/Z/16/Z, 220977/Z/20/Z, and 222574/Z/21/Z) and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), project references: 17/63/and 16/136/33 using UK Aid from the UK government to support global health research, The UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the funding agencies.

Experience of Kenyan researchers and policy-makers with knowledge translation during COVID-19: a qualitative interview study

OBJECTIVES

Researchers at the KEMRI-Wellcome Trust Research Programme (KWTRP) carried out knowledge translation (KT) activities to support policy-makers as the Kenyan Government responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. We assessed the usefulness of these activities to identify the facilitators and barriers to KT and suggest actions that facilitate KT in similar settings.

DESIGN

The study adopted a qualitative interview study design.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Researchers at KWTRP in Kenya who were involved in KT activities during the COVID-19 pandemic (n=6) were selected to participate in key informant interviews to describe their experience. In addition, the policy-makers with whom these researchers engaged were invited to participate (n=11). Data were collected from March 2021 to August 2021.

ANALYSIS

A thematic analysis approach was adopted using a predetermined framework to develop a coding structure consisting of the core thematic areas. Any other theme that emerged in the coding process was included.

RESULTS

Both groups reported that the KT activities increased evidence availability and accessibility, enhanced policy-makers' motivation to use evidence, improved capacity to use research evidence and strengthened relationships. Policy-makers shared that a key facilitator of this was the knowledge products shared and the regular interaction with researchers. Both groups mentioned that a key barrier was the timeliness of generating evidence, which was exacerbated by the pandemic. They felt it was important to institutionalise KT to improve readiness to respond to public health emergencies.

CONCLUSION

This study provides a real-world example of the use of KT during a public health crisis. It further highlights the need to institutionalise KT in research and policy institutions in African countries to respond readily to public health emergencies.

Designing and Implementing Deliberative Processes for Health Technology Assessment: A Good Practices Report of a Joint HTAi/ISPOR Task Force

OBJECTIVES

Deliberative processes for health technology assessment (HTA) are intended to facilitate participatory decision making, using discussion and open dialogue between stakeholders. Increasing attention is being given to deliberative processes, but guidance is lacking for those who wish to design or use them. Health Technology Assessment International (HTAi) and ISPOR-The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research initiated a joint Task Force to address this gap.

METHODS

The joint Task Force consisted of 15 members with different backgrounds, perspectives, and expertise relevant to the field. It developed guidance and a checklist for deliberative processes for HTA. The guidance builds upon the few, existing initiatives in the field, as well as input from the HTA community following an established consultation plan. In addition, the guidance was subject to 2 rounds of peer review.

RESULTS

A deliberative process for HTA consists of procedures, activities, and events that support the informed and critical examination of an issue and the weighing of arguments and evidence to guide a subsequent decision. Guidance and an accompanying checklist are provided for (i) developing the governance and structure of an HTA program and (ii) informing how the various stages of an HTA process might be managed using deliberation.

CONCLUSIONS

The guidance and the checklist contain a series of questions, grouped by 6 phases of a model deliberative process. They are offered as practical tools for those wishing to establish or improve deliberative processes for HTA that are fit for local contexts. The tools can also be used for independent scrutiny of deliberative processes.

Examining the unit costs of COVID-19 vaccine delivery in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Vaccines are considered the path out of the COVID-19 pandemic. The government of Kenya is implementing a phased strategy to vaccinate the Kenyan population, initially targeting populations at high risk of severe disease and infection. We estimated the financial and economic unit costs of procuring and delivering the COVID-19 vaccine in Kenya across various vaccination strategies.

METHODS

We used an activity-based costing approach to estimate the incremental costs of COVID-19 vaccine delivery, from a health systems perspective. Document reviews and key informant interviews(n = 12) were done to inform the activities, assumptions and the resources required. Unit prices were derived from document reviews or from market prices. Both financial and economic vaccine procurement costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses, and the vaccine delivery costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses were estimated and reported in 2021USD.

RESULTS

The financial costs of vaccine procurement per person vaccinated with 2-doses ranged from $2.89-$13.09 in the 30% and 100% coverage levels respectively, however, the economic cost was $17.34 across all strategies. Financial vaccine delivery costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses, ranged from $4.28-$3.29 in the 30% and 100% coverage strategies: While the economic delivery costs were two to three times higher than the financial costs. The total procurement and delivery costs per person vaccinated with 2-doses ranged from $7.34-$16.47 for the financial costs and $29.7-$24.68 for the economic costs for the 30% and 100% coverage respectively. With the exception of procurement costs, the main cost driver of financial and economic delivery costs was supply chain costs (47-59%) and advocacy, communication and social mobilization (29-35%) respectively.

CONCLUSION

This analysis presents cost estimates that can be used to inform local policy and may further inform parameters used in cost-effectiveness models. The results could potentially be adapted and adjusted to country-specific assumptions to enhance applicability in similar low-and middle-income settings.

Scaling up the primary health integrated care project for chronic conditions in Kenya: study protocol for an implementation research project

INTRODUCTION

Amid the rising number of people with non-communicable diseases (NCDs), Kenya has invested in strengthening primary care and in efforts to expand existing service delivery platforms to integrate NCD care. One such approach is the AMPATH (Academic Model Providing Access to Healthcare) model in western Kenya, which provides the platform for the Primary Health Integrated Care Project for Chronic Conditions (PIC4C), launched in 2018 to further strengthen primary care services for the prevention and control of hypertension, diabetes, breast and cervical cancer. This study seeks to understand how well PIC4C delivers on its intended aims and to inform and support scale up of the PIC4C model for integrated care for people with NCDs in Kenya.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The study is guided by a conceptual framework on implementing, sustaining and spreading innovation in health service delivery. We use a multimethod design combining qualitative and quantitative approaches, involving: (1) in-depth interviews with health workers and decision-makers to explore experiences of delivering PIC4C; (2) a cross-sectional survey of patients with diabetes or hypertension and in-depth interviews to understand how well PIC4C meets patients' needs; (3) a cohort study with an interrupted time series analysis to evaluate the degree to which PIC4C leads to health benefits such as improved management of hypertension or diabetes; and (4) a cohort study of households to examine the extent to which the national hospital insurance chronic care package provides financial risk protection to people with hypertension or diabetes within PIC4C.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received approvals from Moi University Institutional Research and Ethics Committee (FAN:0003586) and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (17940). Workshops with key stakeholders at local, county, national and international levels will ensure early and wide dissemination of our findings to inform scale up of this model of care. We will also publish findings in peer-reviewed journals.

The Effects of Health Purchasing Reforms on Equity, Access, Quality of Care, and Financial Protection in Kenya: A Narrative Review

Kenya has implemented several health purchasing reforms to facilitate progress toward universal health coverage. We conducted a narrative review of peer-reviewed and grey literature to examine how these reforms have affected health system outcomes in terms of equity, access, quality of care, and financial protection. We categorized the purchasing reforms we identified into the areas of benefits specification, provider payment, and performance monitoring. We found that the introduction and expansion of benefit packages for maternity, outpatient, and specialized services improved responsiveness to population needs and enhanced protection from financial hardship. However, access to service entitlements was limited by inadequate awareness of the covered services among providers and lack of service availability at contracted facilities. Provider payment reforms increased health facilities' access to funds, which enhanced service delivery, quality of care, and staff motivation. But delays and the perceived inadequacy of payment rates incentivized negative provider behavior, which limited access to care and exposed patients to out-of-pocket payments. We found that performance monitoring reforms improved the quality assurance capacity of the public insurer and enhanced patient safety, service utilization, and quality of care provided by facilities. Although health purchasing reforms have improved access, quality of care, and financial risk protection to some extent in Kenya, they should be aligned and implemented jointly rather than as individual interventions. Measures that policymakers might consider include strengthening communication of health benefits, timely and adequate payment of providers, and enhancing health facility autonomy over the revenues they generate.

Applying the Strategic Health Purchasing Progress Tracking Framework: Lessons from Nine African Countries

The Strategic Purchasing Africa Resource Center (SPARC) developed a framework for tracking strategic purchasing that uses a functional and practical approach to describe, assess, and strengthen purchasing to facilitate policy dialogue within countries. This framework was applied in nine African countries to assess their progress on strategic purchasing. This paper summarizes overarching lessons from the experiences of the nine countries. In each country, researchers populated a Microsoft Excel-based matrix using data collected through document reviews and key informant interviews conducted between September 2019 and March 2021. The matrix documented governance arrangements; core purchasing functions (benefits specification, contracting arrangements, provider payment, and performance monitoring); external factors affecting purchasing; and results attributable to the implementation of these purchasing functions. SPARC and its partners synthesized information from the country assessments to draw lessons applicable to strategic purchasing in Africa. All nine countries have fragmented health financing systems, each with distinct purchasing arrangements. Countries have made some progress in specifying a benefit package that addresses the health needs of the most vulnerable groups and entering into selective contracts with mostly private providers that specify expectations and priorities. Progress on provider payment and performance monitoring has been limited. Overall, progress on strategic purchasing has been limited in most of the countries and has not led to large-scale health system improvements because of the persistence of out-of-pocket payments as the main source of health financing and the high degree of fragmentation, which limits purchasing power to allocate resources and incentivize providers to improve productivity and quality of care.

Is Performance-Based Financing A Pathway to Strategic Purchasing in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Synthesis of the Evidence

Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa have implemented performance-based financing (PBF) to improve health system performance. Much of the debate and analysis relating to PBF has focused on whether PBF “works”—that is, whether it leads to improvements in indicators tied to incentive-based payments. Because PBF schemes embody key elements of strategic health purchasing, this study examines the question of whether and how PBF programs in sub-Saharan Africa influence strategic purchasing more broadly within country health financing arrangements. We searched PubMed, Scopus, EconLit, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Google Scholar, Google, and the World Health Organization and World Bank’s repositories for studies that focused on the implementation experience or effects of PBF in sub-Saharan African and published in English from 2000 to 2020. We identified 44 papers and used framework analysis to analyze the data and generate key findings. The evidence we reviewed shows that PBF has the potential to raise awareness about strategic purchasing, improve governance and institutional arrangements, and strengthen strategic purchasing functions. However, these effects are minimal in practice because PBF has been introduced as narrow, often pilot, projects that run parallel to and have little integration with the mainstream health financing system. We concluded that PBF has not systematically transformed health purchasing in countries in sub-Saharan Africa but that the experience with PBF can provide valuable lessons for how system-wide strategic purchasing can be implemented most effectively in that region—either in countries that currently have PBF schemes and aim to integrate them into broader purchasing systems, or in countries that are not currently implementing PBF. We also concluded that for countries to pursue more holistic approaches to strategic health purchasing and achieve better health outcomes, they need to implement health financing reforms within or aligned with existing financing systems.

Revealing the extent of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya based on serological and PCR-test data

Policymakers in Africa need robust estimates of the current and future spread of SARS-CoV-2. We used national surveillance PCR test, serological survey and mobility data to develop and fit a county-specific transmission model for Kenya up to the end of September 2020, which encompasses the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the country. We estimate that the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic peaked before the end of July 2020 in the major urban counties, with 30-50% of residents infected. Our analysis suggests, first, that the reported low COVID-19 disease burden in Kenya cannot be explained solely by limited spread of the virus, and second, that a 30-50% attack rate was not sufficient to avoid a further wave of transmission.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 infections on routine polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serology testing in Coastal Kenya

Background: There are limited studies in Africa describing the epidemiology, clinical characteristics and serostatus of individuals tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. We tested routine samples from the Coastal part of Kenya between 17 th March 2020 and 30 th June 2021. Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections identified using reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and clinical surveillance data at the point of sample collection were used to classify as either symptomatic or asymptomatic. IgG antibodies were measured in sera samples, using a well validated in-house enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: Mombasa accounted for 56.2% of all the 99,694 naso-pharyngeal/oro-pharyngeal swabs tested, and males constituted the majority tested (73.4%). A total of 7737 (7.7%) individuals were SARS-CoV-2 positive by RT-PCR. The majority (i.e., 92.4%) of the RT-PCR positive individuals were asymptomatic. Testing was dominated by mass screening and travellers, and even at health facility level 91.6% of tests were from individuals without symptoms. Out of the 97,124 tests from asymptomatic individuals 7,149 (7%) were positive and of the 2,568 symptomatic individuals 588 (23%) were positive. In total, 2458 serum samples were submitted with paired naso-pharyngeal/oro-pharyngeal samples and 45% of the RT-PCR positive samples and 20% of the RT-PCR negative samples were paired with positive serum samples. Symptomatic individuals had significantly higher antibody levels than asymptomatic individuals and become RT-PCR negative on repeat testing earlier than asymptomatic individuals. Conclusions: In conclusion, the majority of SARS-CoV-2 infections identified by routine testing in Coastal Kenya were asymptomatic. This reflects the testing practice of health services in Kenya, but also implies that asymptomatic infection is very common in the population. Symptomatic infection may be less common, or it may be that individuals do not present for testing when they have symptoms.

On the resilience of health systems: A methodological exploration across countries in the WHO African Region

The need for resilient health systems is recognized as important for the attainment of health outcomes, given the current shocks to health services. Resilience has been defined as the capacity to “prepare and effectively respond to crises; maintain core functions; and, informed by lessons learnt, reorganize if conditions require it”. There is however a recognized dichotomy between its conceptualization in literature, and its application in practice. We propose two mutually reinforcing categories of resilience, representing resilience targeted at potentially known shocks, and the inherent health system resilience, needed to respond to unpredictable shock events. We determined capacities for each of these categories, and explored this methodological proposition by computing country-specific scores against each capacity, for the 47 Member States of the WHO African Region. We assessed face validity of the computed index, to ensure derived values were representative of the different elements of resilience, and were predictive of health outcomes, and computed bias-corrected non-parametric confidence intervals of the emergency preparedness and response (EPR) and inherent system resilience (ISR) sub-indices, as well as the overall resilience index, using 1000 bootstrap replicates. We also explored the internal consistency and scale reliability of the index, by calculating Cronbach alphas for the various proposed capacities and their corresponding attributes. We computed overall resilience to be 48.4 out of a possible 100 in the 47 assessed countries, with generally lower levels of ISR. For ISR, the capacities were weakest for transformation capacity, followed by mobilization of resources, awareness of own capacities, self-regulation and finally diversity of services respectively. This paper aims to contribute to the growing body of empirical evidence on health systems and service resilience, which is of great importance to the functionality and performance of health systems, particularly in the context of COVID-19. It provides a methodological reflection for monitoring health system resilience, revealing areas of improvement in the provision of essential health services during shock events, and builds a case for the need for mechanisms, at country level, that address both specific and non-specific shocks to the health system, ultimately for the attainment of improved health outcomes.

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Among Healthcare Workers in Kenya

BACKGROUND

Few studies have assessed the seroprevalence of antibodies against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among healthcare workers (HCWs) in Africa. We report findings from a survey among HCWs in 3 counties in Kenya.

METHODS

We recruited 684 HCWs from Kilifi (rural), Busia (rural), and Nairobi (urban) counties. The serosurvey was conducted between 30 July and 4 December 2020. We tested for immunoglobulin G antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Assay sensitivity and specificity were 92.7 (95% CI, 87.9-96.1) and 99.0% (95% CI, 98.1-99.5), respectively. We adjusted prevalence estimates, using bayesian modeling to account for assay performance.

RESULTS

The crude overall seroprevalence was 19.7% (135 of 684). After adjustment for assay performance, seroprevalence was 20.8% (95% credible interval, 17.5%-24.4%). Seroprevalence varied significantly (P < .001) by site: 43.8% (95% credible interval, 35.8%-52.2%) in Nairobi, 12.6% (8.8%-17.1%) in Busia and 11.5% (7.2%-17.6%) in Kilifi. In a multivariable model controlling for age, sex, and site, professional cadre was not associated with differences in seroprevalence.

CONCLUSION

These initial data demonstrate a high seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 among HCWs in Kenya. There was significant variation in seroprevalence by region, but not by cadre.

Socioeconomic Inequity in the Screening and Treatment of Hypertension in Kenya: Evidence From a National Survey

Background

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) account for 50% of hospitalisations and 55% of inpatient deaths in Kenya. Hypertension is one of the major NCDs in Kenya. Equitable access and utilisation of screening and treatment interventions are critical for reducing the burden of hypertension. This study assessed horizontal equity (equal treatment for equal need) in the screening and treatment for hypertension. It also decomposed socioeconomic inequalities in care use in Kenya.

Methods

Cross-sectional data from the 2015 NCDs risk factors STEPwise survey, covering 4,500 adults aged 18-69 years were analysed. Socioeconomic inequality was assessed using concentration curves and concentration indices (CI), and inequity by the horizontal inequity (HI) index. A positive (negative) CI or HI value suggests a pro-rich (pro-poor) inequality or inequity. Socioeconomic inequality in screening and treatment for hypertension was decomposed into contributions of need [age, sex, and body mass index (BMI)] and non-need (wealth status, education, exposure to media, employment, and area of residence) factors using a standard decomposition method.

Results

The need for hypertension screening was higher among poorer than wealthier socioeconomic groups (CI = -0.077; p < 0.05). However, wealthier groups needed hypertension treatment more than poorer groups (CI = 0.293; p <0.001). Inequity in the use of hypertension screening (HI = 0.185; p < 0.001) and treatment (HI = 0.095; p < 0.001) were significantly pro-rich. Need factors such as sex and BMI were the largest contributors to inequalities in the use of screening services. By contrast, non-need factors like the area of residence, wealth, and employment status mainly contributed to inequalities in the utilisation of treatment services.

Conclusion

Among other things, the use of hypertension screening and treatment services in Kenya should be according to need to realise the Sustainable Development Goals for NCDs. Specifically, efforts to attain equity in healthcare use for hypertension services should be multi-sectoral and focused on crucial inequity drivers such as regional disparities in care use, poverty and educational attainment. Also, concerted awareness campaigns are needed to increase the uptake of screening services for hypertension.

Sero-surveillance for IgG to SARS-CoV-2 at antenatal care clinics in three Kenyan referral hospitals: Repeated cross-sectional surveys 2020-21

INTRODUCTION

The high proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections that have remained undetected presents a challenge to tracking the progress of the pandemic and estimating the extent of population immunity.

METHODS

We used residual blood samples from women attending antenatal care services at three hospitals in Kenya between August 2020 and October 2021and a validated IgG ELISA for SARS-Cov-2 spike protein and adjusted the results for assay sensitivity and specificity. We fitted a two-component mixture model as an alternative to the threshold analysis to estimate of the proportion of individuals with past SARS-CoV-2 infection.

RESULTS

We estimated seroprevalence in 2,981 women; 706 in Nairobi, 567 in Busia and 1,708 in Kilifi. By October 2021, 13% of participants were vaccinated (at least one dose) in Nairobi, 2% in Busia. Adjusted seroprevalence rose in all sites; from 50% (95%CI 42-58) in August 2020, to 85% (95%CI 78-92) in October 2021 in Nairobi; from 31% (95%CI 25-37) in May 2021 to 71% (95%CI 64-77) in October 2021 in Busia; and from 1% (95% CI 0-3) in September 2020 to 63% (95% CI 56-69) in October 2021 in Kilifi. Mixture modelling, suggests adjusted cross-sectional prevalence estimates are underestimates; seroprevalence in October 2021 could be 74% in Busia and 72% in Kilifi.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been substantial, unobserved transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Nairobi, Busia and Kilifi Counties. Due to the length of time since the beginning of the pandemic, repeated cross-sectional surveys are now difficult to interpret without the use of models to account for antibody waning.

Examining health sector stakeholder perceptions on the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya

Efficiency gains is a potential strategy to expand Kenya's fiscal space for health. We explored health sector stakeholders' understanding of efficiency and their perceptions of the factors that influence the efficiency of county health systems in Kenya. We conducted a qualitative cross-sectional study and collected data using three focus group discussions during a stakeholder engagement workshop. Workshop participants included health sector stakeholders from the national ministry of health and 10 (out 47) county health departments, and non-state actors in Kenya. A total of 25 health sector stakeholders participated. We analysed data using a thematic approach. Health sector stakeholders indicated the need for the outputs and outcomes of a health system to be aligned to community health needs. They felt that both hardware aspects of the system (such as the financial resources, infrastructure, human resources for health) and software aspects of the system (such as health sector policies, public finance management systems, actor relationships) should be considered as inputs in the analysis of county health system efficiency. They also felt that while traditional indicators of health system performance such as intervention coverage or outcomes for infectious diseases, and reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health are still relevant, emerging epidemiological trends such as an increase in the burden of non-communicable diseases should also be considered. The stakeholders identified public finance management, human resources for health, political interests, corruption, management capacity, and poor coordination as factors that influence the efficiency of county health systems. An in-depth examination of the factors that influence the efficiency of county health systems could illuminate potential policy levers for generating efficiency gains. Mixed methods approaches could facilitate the study of both hardware and software factors that are considered inputs, outputs or factors that influence health system efficiency. County health system efficiency in Kenya could be enhanced by improving the timeliness of financial flows to counties and health facilities, giving health facilities financial autonomy, improving the number, skill mix, and motivation of healthcare staff, managing political interests, enhancing anticorruption strategies, strengthening management capacity and coordination in the health sector.