Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A burden of proof study on alcohol consumption and ischemic heart disease

Cohort and case-control data have suggested an association between low to moderate alcohol consumption and decreased risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD), yet results from Mendelian randomization (MR) studies designed to reduce bias have shown either no or a harmful association. Here we conducted an updated systematic review and re-evaluated existing cohort, case-control, and MR data using the burden of proof meta-analytical framework. Cohort and case-control data show low to moderate alcohol consumption is associated with decreased IHD risk - specifically, intake is inversely related to IHD and myocardial infarction morbidity in both sexes and IHD mortality in males - while pooled MR data show no association, confirming that self-reported versus genetically predicted alcohol use data yield conflicting findings about the alcohol-IHD relationship. Our results highlight the need to advance MR methodologies and emulate randomized trials using large observational databases to obtain more definitive answers to this critical public health question.

Toward a Universal Definition of Etiologies in Heart Failure: Categorizing Causes and Advancing Registry Science

Heart failure (HF) is a well-described final common pathway for a broad range of diseases however substantial confusion exists regarding how to describe, study, and track these underlying etiologic conditions. We describe (1) the overlap in HF etiologies, comorbidities, and case definitions as currently used in HF registries led or managed by members of the global HF roundtable; (2) strategies to improve the quality of evidence on etiologies and modifiable risk factors of HF in registries; and (3) opportunities to use clinical HF registries as a platform for public health surveillance, implementation research, and randomized registry trials to reduce the global burden of noncommunicable diseases. Investment and collaboration among countries to improve the quality of evidence in global HF registries could contribute to achieving global health targets to reduce noncommunicable diseases and overall improvements in population health.

Burden of Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Stroke Across the US From 1990 to 2019

Importance

Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability in the US. Accurate and updated measures of stroke burden are needed to guide public health policies.

Objective

To present burden estimates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in the US in 2019 and describe trends from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, and geographic location.

Design, Setting, and Participants

An in-depth cross-sectional analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study was conducted. The setting included the time period of 1990 to 2019 in the US. The study encompassed estimates for various types of strokes, including all strokes, ischemic strokes, intracerebral hemorrhages (ICHs), and subarachnoid hemorrhages (SAHs). The 2019 Global Burden of Disease results were released on October 20, 2020.

Exposures

In this study, no particular exposure was specifically targeted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary focus of this analysis centered on both overall and age-standardized estimates, stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs per 100 000 individuals.

Results

In 2019, the US recorded 7.09 million prevalent strokes (4.07 million women [57.4%]; 3.02 million men [42.6%]), with 5.87 million being ischemic strokes (82.7%). Prevalence also included 0.66 million ICHs and 0.85 million SAHs. Although the absolute numbers of stroke cases, mortality, and DALYs surged from 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized rates either declined or remained steady. Notably, hemorrhagic strokes manifested a substantial increase, especially in mortality, compared with ischemic strokes (incidence of ischemic stroke increased by 13% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 14.2%-11.9%]; incidence of ICH increased by 39.8% [95% UI, 38.9%-39.7%]; incidence of SAH increased by 50.9% [95% UI, 49.2%-52.6%]). The downturn in stroke mortality plateaued in the recent decade. There was a discernible heterogeneity in stroke burden trends, with older adults (50-74 years) experiencing a decrease in incidence in coastal areas (decreases up to 3.9% in Vermont), in contrast to an uptick observed in younger demographics (15-49 years) in the South and Midwest US (with increases up to 8.4% in Minnesota).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, the declining age-standardized stroke rates over the past 3 decades suggest progress in managing stroke-related outcomes. However, the increasing absolute burden of stroke, coupled with a notable rise in hemorrhagic stroke, suggests an evolving and substantial public health challenge in the US. Moreover, the significant disparities in stroke burden trends across different age groups and geographic locations underscore the necessity for region- and demography-specific interventions and policies to effectively mitigate the multifaceted and escalating burden of stroke in the country.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

The Burden of Chagas Disease in the Contemporary World: The RAISE Study

Chagas disease (ChD), a Neglected Tropical Disease, has witnessed a transformative epidemiological landscape characterized by a trend of reduction in prevalence, shifting modes of transmission, urbanization, and globalization. Historically a vector-borne disease in rural areas of Latin America, effective control measures have reduced the incidence in many countries, leading to a demographic shift where most affected individuals are now adults. However, challenges persist in regions like the Gran Chaco, and emerging oral transmission in the Amazon basin adds complexity. Urbanization and migration from rural to urban areas and to non-endemic countries, especially in Europe and the US, have redefined the disease's reach. These changing patterns contribute to uncertainties in estimating ChD prevalence, exacerbated by the lack of recent data, scarcity of surveys, and reliance on outdated models. Besides, ChD's lifelong natural history, marked by acute and chronic phases, introduces complexities in diagnosis, particularly in non-endemic regions where healthcare provider awareness is low. The temporal dissociation of infection and clinical manifestations, coupled with underreporting, has rendered ChD invisible in health statistics. Deaths attributed to ChD cardiomyopathy often go unrecognized, camouflaged under alternative causes. Understanding these challenges, the RAISE project aims to reassess the burden of ChD and ChD cardiomyopathy. The project is a collaborative effort of the World Heart Federation, Novartis Global Health, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, and a team of specialists coordinated by Brazil's Federal University of Minas Gerais. Employing a multidimensional strategy, the project seeks to refine estimates of ChD-related deaths, conduct systematic reviews on seroprevalence and prevalence of clinical forms, enhance existing modeling frameworks, and calculate the global economic burden, considering healthcare expenditures and service access. The RAISE project aspires to bridge knowledge gaps, raise awareness, and inform evidence-based health policies and research initiatives, positioning ChD prominently on the global health agenda.

Regional variations in heart failure: a global perspective

Heart failure (HF) is a global public health concern that affects millions of people worldwide. While there have been significant therapeutic advancements in HF over the last few decades, there remain major disparities in risk factors, treatment patterns and outcomes across race, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, country and region. Recent research has provided insight into many of these disparities, but there remain large gaps in our understanding of worldwide variations in HF care. Although the majority of the global population resides across Asia, Africa and South America, these regions remain poorly represented in epidemiological studies and HF trials. Recent efforts and registries have provided insight into the clinical profiles and outcomes across HF patterns globally. The prevalence of HF and associated risk factors has been reported and varies by country and region ranges, with minimal data on regional variations in treatment patterns and long-term outcomes. It is critical to improve our understanding of the different factors that contribute to global disparities in HF care so we can build interventions that improve our general cardiovascular health and mitigate the social and economic cost of HF. In this narrative review, we hope to provide an overview of the global and regional variations in HF care and outcomes.

Multimorbidity in patients with acute heart failure across world regions and country income levels (REPORT-HF): a prospective, multicentre, global cohort study

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity (two or more comorbidities) is common among patients with acute heart failure, but comprehensive global information on its prevalence and clinical consequences across different world regions and income levels is scarce. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of multimorbidity and its effect on pharmacotherapy and prognosis in participants of the REPORT-HF study.

METHODS

REPORT-HF was a prospective, multicentre, global cohort study that enrolled adults (aged ≥18 years) admitted to hospital with a primary diagnosis of acute heart failure from 358 hospitals in 44 countries on six continents. Patients who currently or recently participated in a clinical treatment trial were excluded. Follow-up data were collected at 1-year post-discharge. The primary outcome was 1-year post-discharge mortality. All patients in the REPORT-HF cohort with full data on comorbidities were eligible for the present study. We stratified patients according to the number of comorbidities, and countries by world region and country income level. We used one-way ANOVA, χ2 test, or Mann-Whitney U test for comparisons between groups, as applicable, and Cox regression to analyse the association between multimorbidity and 1-year mortality.

FINDINGS

Between July 23, 2014, and March 24, 2017, 18 553 patients were included in the REPORT-HF study. Of these, 18 528 patients had full data on comorbidities, of whom 11 360 (61%) were men and 7168 (39%) were women. Prevalence rates of multimorbidity were lowest in southeast Asia (72%) and highest in North America (92%). Fewer patients from lower-middle-income countries had multimorbidity than patients from high-income countries (73% vs 85%, p<0·0001). With increasing comorbidity burden, patients received fewer guideline-directed heart failure medications, yet more drugs potentially causing or worsening heart failure. Having more comorbidities was associated with worse outcomes: 1-year mortality increased from 13% (no comorbidities) to 26% (five or more comorbidities). This finding was independent of common baseline risk factors, including age and sex. The population-attributable fraction of multimorbidity for mortality was higher in high-income countries than in upper-middle-income or lower-middle-income countries (for patients with five or more comorbidities: 61% vs 27% and 31%, respectively).

INTERPRETATION

Multimorbidity is highly prevalent among patients with acute heart failure across world regions, especially in high-income countries, and is associated with higher mortality, less prescription of guideline-directed heart failure pharmacotherapy, and increased use of potentially harmful medications.

FUNDING

Novartis Pharma.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Arabic, French, German, Hindi, Mandarin, Russian and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Global burden of peripheral artery disease and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Peripheral artery disease is a growing public health problem. We aimed to estimate the global disease burden of peripheral artery disease, its risk factors, and temporospatial trends to inform policy and public measures.

METHODS

Data on peripheral artery disease were modelled using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 database. Prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality estimates of peripheral artery disease were extracted from GBD 2019. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rate of peripheral artery disease attributed to modifiable risk factors were also assessed.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the number of people aged 40 years and older with peripheral artery disease was 113 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 99·2-128·4), with a global prevalence of 1·52% (95% UI 1·33-1·72), of which 42·6% was in countries with low to middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI). The global prevalence of peripheral artery disease was higher in older people, (14·91% [12·41-17·87] in those aged 80-84 years), and was generally higher in females than in males. Globally, the total number of DALYs attributable to modifiable risk factors in 2019 accounted for 69·4% (64·2-74·3) of total peripheral artery disease DALYs. The prevalence of peripheral artery disease was highest in countries with high SDI and lowest in countries with low SDI, whereas DALY and mortality rates showed U-shaped curves, with the highest burden in the high and low SDI quintiles.

INTERPRETATION

The total number of people with peripheral artery disease has increased globally from 1990 to 2019. Despite the lower prevalence of peripheral artery disease in males and low-income countries, these groups showed similar DALY rates to females and higher-income countries, highlighting disproportionate burden in these groups. Modifiable risk factors were responsible for around 70% of the global peripheral artery disease burden. Public measures could mitigate the burden of peripheral artery disease by modifying risk factors.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The burden of ischemic heart disease and the epidemiologic transition in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: 1990-2019

It has been estimated that in the next decade, IHD prevalence, DALYs and deaths will increase more significantly in EMR than in any other region of the world. This study aims to provide a comprehensive description of the trends in the burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) across the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) from 1990 to 2019. Data on IHD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), mortality, DALYs attributable to risk factors, healthcare access and quality index (HAQ), and universal health coverage (UHC) were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database for EMR countries. The data were stratified based on the social demographic index (SDI). Information on cardiac rehabilitation was obtained from publications by the International Council of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (ICCPR), and additional country-specific data were obtained through advanced search methods. Age standardization was performed using the direct method, applying the estimated age structure of the global population from 2019. Uncertainty intervals were calculated through 1000 iterations, and the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles were derived from these calculations. The age-standardized prevalence of IHD in the EMR increased from 5.0% to 5.5% between 1990 and 2019, while it decreased at the global level. In the EMR, the age-standardized rates of IHD mortality and DALYs decreased by 11.4% and 15.4%, respectively, during the study period, although both rates remained higher than the global rates. The burden of IHD was found to be higher in males compared to females. Bahrain exhibited the highest decrease in age-standardized prevalence (-3.7%), mortality (-65.0%), and DALYs (-69.1%) rates among the EMR countries. Conversely, Oman experienced the highest increase in prevalence (14.5%), while Pakistan had the greatest increase in mortality (30.0%) and DALYs (32.0%) rates. The top three risk factors contributing to IHD DALYs in the EMR in 2019 were high systolic blood pressure, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and particulate matter pollution. The trend analysis over the 29-year period (1990-2019) revealed that high fasting plasma glucose (64.0%) and high body mass index (23.4%) exhibited increasing trends as attributed risk factors for IHD DALYs in the EMR. Our findings indicate an increasing trend in the prevalence of IHD and a decrease in mortality and DALYs in the EMR. These results emphasize the need for well-planned prevention and treatment strategies to address the risk factors associated with IHD. It is crucial for the countries in this region to prioritize the development and implementation of programs focused on health promotion, education, prevention, and medical care.

Trends in State-Level Maternal Mortality by Racial and Ethnic Group in the United States

Importance

Evidence suggests that maternal mortality has been increasing in the US. Comprehensive estimates do not exist. Long-term trends in maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) for all states by racial and ethnic groups were estimated.

Objective

To quantify trends in MMRs (maternal deaths per 100 000 live births) by state for 5 mutually exclusive racial and ethnic groups using a bayesian extension of the generalized linear model network.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Observational study using vital registration and census data from 1999 to 2019 in the US. Pregnant or recently pregnant individuals aged 10 to 54 years were included.

Main Outcomes and Measures

MMRs.

Results

In 2019, MMRs in most states were higher among American Indian and Alaska Native and Black populations than among Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; Hispanic; and White populations. Between 1999 and 2019, observed median state MMRs increased from 14.0 (IQR, 5.7-23.9) to 49.2 (IQR, 14.4-88.0) among the American Indian and Alaska Native population, 26.7 (IQR, 18.3-32.9) to 55.4 (IQR, 31.6-74.5) among the Black population, 9.6 (IQR, 5.7-12.6) to 20.9 (IQR, 12.1-32.8) among the Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander population, 9.6 (IQR, 6.9-11.6) to 19.1 (IQR, 11.6-24.9) among the Hispanic population, and 9.4 (IQR, 7.4-11.4) to 26.3 (IQR, 20.3-33.3) among the White population. In each year between 1999 and 2019, the Black population had the highest median state MMR. The American Indian and Alaska Native population had the largest increases in median state MMRs between 1999 and 2019. Since 1999, the median of state MMRs has increased for all racial and ethnic groups in the US and the American Indian and Alaska Native; Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander; and Black populations each observed their highest median state MMRs in 2019.

Conclusion and Relevance

While maternal mortality remains unacceptably high among all racial and ethnic groups in the US, American Indian and Alaska Native and Black individuals are at increased risk, particularly in several states where these inequities had not been previously highlighted. Median state MMRs for the American Indian and Alaska Native and Asian, Native Hawaiian, or Other Pacific Islander populations continue to increase, even after the adoption of a pregnancy checkbox on death certificates. Median state MMR for the Black population remains the highest in the US. Comprehensive mortality surveillance for all states via vital registration identifies states and racial and ethnic groups with the greatest potential to improve maternal mortality. Maternal mortality persists as a source of worsening disparities in many US states and prevention efforts during this study period appear to have had a limited impact in addressing this health crisis.

Trends in the burden and determinants of hypertensive heart disease in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2019: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Hypertensive heart disease (HHD), one of the end-organ damage consequences of hypertension, is an important public health issue worldwide. Data on the HHD burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR) are scarce. We aimed to investigate the burden of HHD in the EMR, its member countries, and globally from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We used 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data to report the HHD age-standardised prevalence, disability adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and mortality, as well as HHD risk factors attribution percent with their 95% uncertainty interval (UI). Global data are reported alongside EMR data, and its 22 respective countries. We compared the burden of HHD by socio-demographic index (SDI), sex, age groups, and countries.

Findings

The age-standardised prevalence rate (per 100,000 population) of HHD was higher in the EMR (281.7; 95% UI: 204.5-383.4) in 2019, compared with the global prevalence (233.8; 95% UI: 170.5-312.9). The EMR age-standardised DALYs (per 100,000 population) for HHD in 2019 was 561.9 (361.0-704.1), compared with 268.2 (204.6-298.1) at the global level. There was an increase in HHD prevalence, reduction in mortality, and DALYs between 1990 and 2019 (4.01%, -7.6%, and -6.5%, respectively) in EMR. Among EMR countries, the highest versus lowest rates of age-standardised prevalence, mortality, and DALYs in 2019 [estimate (95% UI)] were in Jordan [561.62 (417.9-747.6)] versus Saudi Arabia [94.9 (69.5-129.0)]; Afghanistan [74.5 (23.7-112.3)] versus Saudi Arabia [4.3 (3.3-5.9)]; and Afghanistan [1374.1 (467.2-2020.7)] versus Qatar [87.11 (64.40-114.29)], respectively.

Interpretation

HHD remains a significant problem in the EMR, with a higher burden than global levels. Serious efforts toward high-quality management and prevention are strongly recommended. Based on this study, our recommendation for the EMR is to adopt effective preventive strategies. For example, promoting healthy dietary patterns and prompt screening for undiagnosed HTN in public places, promoting regular blood pressure measurements at home, and creating community awareness about early detection of HTN.

Funding

None.

State-Level Cardiovascular Mortality Rates Among Hispanic, Non-Hispanic Black, and Non-Hispanic White Populations, 1990 to 2019

Importance

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the US, with considerable variation by both state and race and ethnicity group. Consistent, comparable measures of mortality by specific CVD cause at the state level and by race and ethnicity have not previously been available and are necessary for supporting policy decisions aimed at reducing health inequities.

Objective

To quantify and describe levels and trends of mortality due to overall CVD and its component causes for 3 mutually exclusive race and ethnicity groups and by state.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used Census data, population surveys, and US vital registration records to estimate cause-specific cardiovascular mortality by state and by the following race and ethnicity groups, defined by the US Office of Management and Budget: Hispanic of any race, non-Hispanic Black (hereafter, Black), and non-Hispanic White (hereafter, White). Data were analyzed from January 2020 to September 2022.

Exposures

State of residence at time of death; Hispanic ethnicity and Black or White race.

Main Outcomes and Measures

CVD death counts and mortality rates.

Results

An estimated 25 397 029 persons died of cardiovascular diseases from 1990 to 2019. The mean (SD) age of individuals was 78.20 (14.01); 13 087 290 individuals (51.53%) were female and 12 309 739 (48.47%) were male; 2 921 650 (11.50%) were Black, 1 159 498 (4.57%) were Hispanic, and 21 315 880 (83.93%) were White. Age-standardized CVD mortality per 100 000 persons in 2019 was 194.4 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 172.7 to 207.4), 107.7 (95% UI, 92.9 to 121.4), and 153.8 (95% UI, 133.8 to 163.8) among Black, Hispanic, and White populations, respectively. The median (IQR) percentage change across states was smaller for 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 for both White female and White male populations (-6.8 [-10.1 to -4.3] vs -10.2 [-12.9 to -5.9] and -4.6 [-8.6 to -2.5] vs -16.5 [-19.3 to -15.4]). For the Black and Hispanic groups, the percentage change (IQR) was larger for the female populations for the latter time period (-15.1 [-18.9 to -11.7] vs -12.6 [-19.6 to -7.8] and -23.5 [-29.2 to -18.5] vs -8.2 [-17.8 to 5.96]). The converse was observed among male individuals in both groups, with smaller percentage change (IQR) values in 2010 to 2019 compared with 1990 to 2000 (-13.1 [-18.7 to -8.6] vs -18.6 [-25.5 to -14.7] among the Black male population and -20.4 [-25.6 to -15.6] vs -21.5 [-31.1 to -5.7] among the Hispanic male population). There was substantial variability at the state level for death due to total CVD and component causes in 2019 and changes in CVD mortality from 1990 through 2019.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this study indicate that CVD mortality varied widely by state and race and ethnicity group. Changes over the time period were not consistent for all groups and varied by cardiovascular subcause. These results highlight ongoing health disparities in cardiovascular mortality.

Longitudinal Trends in Cardiovascular Risk Factor Profiles and Complications Among Patients Hospitalized for COVID-19 Infection: Results From the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has evolved through multiple phases characterized by new viral variants, vaccine development, and changes in therapies. It is unknown whether rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles and complications have changed over time.

METHODS

We analyzed the American Heart Association COVID-19 CVD registry, a national multicenter registry of hospitalized adults with active COVID-19 infection. The time period from April 2020 to December 2021 was divided into 3-month epochs, with March 2020 analyzed separately as a potential outlier. Participating centers varied over the study period. Trends in all-cause in-hospital mortality, CVD risk factors, and in-hospital CVD outcomes, including a composite primary outcome of cardiovascular death, cardiogenic shock, new heart failure, stroke, and myocardial infarction, were evaluated across time epochs. Risk-adjusted analyses were performed using generalized linear mixed-effects models.

RESULTS

A total of 46 007 patient admissions from 134 hospitals were included (mean patient age 61.8 years, 53% male, 22% Black race). Patients admitted later in the pandemic were younger, more likely obese, and less likely to have existing CVD (P_trend ≤0.001 for each). The incidence of the primary outcome increased from 7.0% in March 2020 to 9.8% in October to December 2021 (risk-adjusted P_trend=0.006). This was driven by an increase in the diagnosis of myocardial infarction and stroke (P_trend<0.0001 for each). The overall rate of in-hospital mortality was 14.2%, which declined over time (20.8% in March 2020 versus 10.8% in the last epoch; adjusted P_trend<0.0001). When the analysis was restricted to July 2020 to December 2021, no temporal change in all-cause mortality was seen (adjusted P_trend=0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a shifting risk factor profile toward a younger population with lower rates of established CVD, the incidence of diagnosed cardiovascular complications of COVID increased from the onset of the pandemic through December 2021. All-cause mortality decreased during the initial months of the pandemic and thereafter remained consistently high through December 2021.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2023 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2023 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2022 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. The American Heart Association strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) publications, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Early Stage and Established Hypertension in Sub-Saharan Africa: Results From Population Health Surveys in 17 Countries, 2010-2017

BACKGROUND

Multiple studies have reported a high burden of hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa, but none have examined early stage hypertension. We examined contemporary prevalence of diagnosed, treated, and controlled stage I (130-139/80-89 mm Hg) and II (≥140/90 mm Hg) hypertension in the general population of sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We analyzed World Health Organization STEPwise Approach to Noncommunicable Disease Risk Factor Surveillance surveys from 17 sub-Saharan Africa countries including 85 371 respondents representing 85 million individuals from 2010 to 2017. We extracted demographic variables, blood pressure, self-reported hypertension diagnosis/awareness, and treatment status to estimate prevalence of stage I and II hypertension and treatment by country. We examined diagnosis and treatment trends by national sociodemographic index, a marker of development.

RESULTS

Stage I hypertension prevalence (regardless of diagnosis/treatment) was >25% in 13 of 17 countries, highest in Sudan (35.3% [95% CI, 33.7%-37.0%]), and lowest in Eritrea (20.2% [18.8%-21.6%]). Combined stages I and II hypertension prevalence was >50% in 13 countries; <20% were diagnosed in every country. Treatment among those diagnosed ranged from 26% to 63%, and control (<140/90 mm Hg) from 4% to 17%. In 8 of 9 countries reporting on behavioral interventions (eg, salt reduction, weight loss, exercise, and smoking cessation), <60% of diagnosed individuals received counseling. Rates of diagnosis, but not treatment, were positively associated with sociodemographic index (P=0.008), although there was substantial variation between countries even at similar levels of development.

CONCLUSIONS

Hypertension is common in sub-Saharan Africa but rates of diagnosis, treatment, and control markedly low. There is a large population with early stage hypertension that may benefit from behavioral counseling to prevent progression. Our analyses suggest that success in population hypertension care may be achieved independently of socioeconomic development, highlighting a need for policymakers to identify best practices in those countries that outperform similar or more developed countries.

Effects of elevated systolic blood pressure on ischemic heart disease: a Burden of Proof study

High systolic blood pressure (SBP) is a major risk factor for ischemic heart disease (IHD), the leading cause of death worldwide. Using data from published observational studies and controlled trials, we estimated the mean SBP-IHD dose-response function and burden of proof risk function (BPRF), and we calculated a risk outcome score (ROS) and corresponding star rating (one to five). We found a very strong, significant harmful effect of SBP on IHD, with a mean risk-relative to that at 100 mm Hg SBP-of 1.39 (95% uncertainty interval including between-study heterogeneity 1.34-1.44) at 120 mm Hg, 1.81 (1.70-1.93) at 130 mm Hg and 4.48 (3.81-5.26) at 165 mm Hg. The conservative BPRF measure indicated that SBP exposure between 107.5 and 165.0 mm Hg raised risk by 101.36% on average, yielding a ROS of 0.70 and star rating of five. Our analysis shows that IHD risk was already increasing at 120 mm Hg SBP, rising steadily up to 165 mm Hg and increasing less steeply above that point. Our study endorses the need to prioritize and strengthen strategies for screening, to raise awareness of the need for timely diagnosis and treatment of hypertension and to increase the resources allocated for understanding primordial prevention of elevated blood pressure.

The Burden of Proof studies: assessing the evidence of risk

Exposure to risks throughout life results in a wide variety of outcomes. Objectively judging the relative impact of these risks on personal and population health is fundamental to individual survival and societal prosperity. Existing mechanisms to quantify and rank the magnitude of these myriad effects and the uncertainty in their estimation are largely subjective, leaving room for interpretation that can fuel academic controversy and add to confusion when communicating risk. We present a new suite of meta-analyses-termed the Burden of Proof studies-designed specifically to help evaluate these methodological issues objectively and quantitatively. Through this data-driven approach that complements existing systems, including GRADE and Cochrane Reviews, we aim to aggregate evidence across multiple studies and enable a quantitative comparison of risk-outcome pairs. We introduce the burden of proof risk function (BPRF), which estimates the level of risk closest to the null hypothesis that is consistent with available data. Here we illustrate the BPRF methodology for the evaluation of four exemplar risk-outcome pairs: smoking and lung cancer, systolic blood pressure and ischemic heart disease, vegetable consumption and ischemic heart disease, and unprocessed red meat consumption and ischemic heart disease. The strength of evidence for each relationship is assessed by computing and summarizing the BPRF, and then translating the summary to a simple star rating. The Burden of Proof methodology provides a consistent way to understand, evaluate and summarize evidence of risk across different risk-outcome pairs, and informs risk analysis conducted as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cardiovascular Health in 2020: JACC State-of-the-Art Review

The impact of COVID-19 on the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) during the early pandemic remains unclear. COVID-19 has become one of the leading causes of global mortality, with a disproportionate impact on persons with CVD. Studies of health facility admissions for CVD found significant decreases during the pandemic. Studies of hospital mortality for CVD were more variable. Studies of population-level CVD mortality differed across countries, with most showing decreases, although some revealed increases in deaths. In some countries where large increases in CVD deaths were reported in vital registration systems, misclassification of COVID-19 as CVD may have occurred. Taken together, studies suggest heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on CVD without large increases in CVD mortality in 2020 for a number of countries. Clinical and population science research is needed to examine the ways in which the pandemic has affected CVD burden.

Life Expectancy for White, Black, and Hispanic Race/Ethnicity in U.S. States: Trends and Disparities, 1990 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy (LE) differences within and between states by race/ethnicity have not been examined.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate LE for selected race/ethnicity groups in states from 1990 to 2019.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional time-series analysis.

SETTING

United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Deidentified death records and Census data were used to construct regression models with smoothed time series of mortality from 1990 to 2019.

MEASUREMENTS

LE at birth, by sex and year, for subgroups of people reporting Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, or non-Hispanic White race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

Disparities in LE across states were 8.0 years for females and 12.2 years for males in 1990 and 7.9 years for females and 7.8 years for males in 2019. When race/ethnicity groups were accounted for, disparities across states were 20.7 years for females and 24.5 years for males in 1990, decreasing to 18.5 years for females and 23.7 years for males in 2019. Disparities across states increased within each race/ethnicity group between 1990 and 2019, with the largest increase for non-Hispanic White males and the smallest for Hispanic females. The disparity between race/ethnicity groups within states decreased for most of the 23 states with estimates for all 3 groups but increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states.

LIMITATION

Because of small sample size, LE was not estimated for 37 of 153 state-race/ethnicity groups.

CONCLUSION

Disparity in LE across states was greater when race/ethnicity groups were considered. Disparities across all state-race/ethnicity groups in general have decreased over the past 3 decades. Within each race/ethnicity group, disparities across states have increased. Although racial/ethnic disparities decreased in most of the 23 states for which LE was estimated for all 3 groups, they increased for females in 7 states and males in 5 states.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020

BACKGROUND

The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year.

METHODS

For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol.

FINDINGS

The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0·603 (0·400-1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0-0) and 1·75 (0·698-4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0-0·403) to 1·87 (0·500-3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0-0·900) and 6·94 (3·40-8·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59·1% (54·3-65·4) were aged 15-39 years and 76·9% (73·0-81·3) were male.

INTERPRETATION

There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2022 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2022 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population and an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, and the global burden of cardiovascular disease and healthy life expectancy.

RESULTS

Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Prevalence, incidence, and survival of pulmonary arterial hypertension: A systematic review for the global burden of disease 2020 study

Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is characterized by increased resistance in the pulmonary arterioles as a result of remodeled blood vessels. We sought all available epidemiologic data on population‐based prevalence, incidence, and 1‐year survival of PAH as part of the Global Burden of Disease Study. We performed a systematic review searching Global Index Medicus (GIM) for keywords related to PAH between 1980 and 2021 and identified population‐representative sources of prevalence, incidence, and mortality for clinically diagnosed PAH. Of 6772 articles identified we found 65 with population‐level data: 17 for prevalence, 17 for incidence, and 58 reporting case fatality. Reported prevalence ranged from 0.37 cases/100,000 persons in a referral center of French children to 15 cases/100,000 persons in an Australian study. Reported incidence ranged from 0.008 cases/100,000 person‐years in Finland, to 1.4 cases/100,000 person‐years in a retrospective chart review at a clinic in Utah, United States. Reported 1‐year survival ranged from 67% to 99%. All studies with sex‐specific estimates of prevalence or incidence reported higher levels in females than males. Studies varied in their size, study design, diagnostic criteria, and sampling procedures. Reported PAH prevalence, incidence, and mortality varied by location and study. Prevalence ranged from 0.4 to 1.4 per 100,000 persons. Harmonization of methods for PAH registries would improve efforts at disease surveillance. Results of this search contribute to ongoing efforts to quantify the global burden of PAH.

Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019.

METHODS

We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017).

FINDINGS

In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%.

INTERPRETATION

Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Stroke Among Patients Hospitalized With COVID-19: Results From the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be associated with increased risk for ischemic stroke. We present prevalence and characteristics of strokes in patients with laboratory-confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 infection enrolled in the American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry.

Global, regional, and national burden of stroke and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Regularly updated data on stroke and its pathological types, including data on their incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability, risk factors, and epidemiological trends, are important for evidence-based stroke care planning and resource allocation. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) aims to provide a standardised and comprehensive measurement of these metrics at global, regional, and national levels.

METHODS

We applied GBD 2019 analytical tools to calculate stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the population attributable fraction (PAF) of DALYs (with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals [UIs]) associated with 19 risk factors, for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. These estimates were provided for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and all strokes combined, and stratified by sex, age group, and World Bank country income level.

FINDINGS

In 2019, there were 12·2 million (95% UI 11·0-13·6) incident cases of stroke, 101 million (93·2-111) prevalent cases of stroke, 143 million (133-153) DALYs due to stroke, and 6·55 million (6·00-7·02) deaths from stroke. Globally, stroke remained the second-leading cause of death (11·6% [10·8-12·2] of total deaths) and the third-leading cause of death and disability combined (5·7% [5·1-6·2] of total DALYs) in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, the absolute number of incident strokes increased by 70·0% (67·0-73·0), prevalent strokes increased by 85·0% (83·0-88·0), deaths from stroke increased by 43·0% (31·0-55·0), and DALYs due to stroke increased by 32·0% (22·0-42·0). During the same period, age-standardised rates of stroke incidence decreased by 17·0% (15·0-18·0), mortality decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0), prevalence decreased by 6·0% (5·0-7·0), and DALYs decreased by 36·0% (31·0-42·0). However, among people younger than 70 years, prevalence rates increased by 22·0% (21·0-24·0) and incidence rates increased by 15·0% (12·0-18·0). In 2019, the age-standardised stroke-related mortality rate was 3·6 (3·5-3·8) times higher in the World Bank low-income group than in the World Bank high-income group, and the age-standardised stroke-related DALY rate was 3·7 (3·5-3·9) times higher in the low-income group than the high-income group. Ischaemic stroke constituted 62·4% of all incident strokes in 2019 (7·63 million [6·57-8·96]), while intracerebral haemorrhage constituted 27·9% (3·41 million [2·97-3·91]) and subarachnoid haemorrhage constituted 9·7% (1·18 million [1·01-1·39]). In 2019, the five leading risk factors for stroke were high systolic blood pressure (contributing to 79·6 million [67·7-90·8] DALYs or 55·5% [48·2-62·0] of total stroke DALYs), high body-mass index (34·9 million [22·3-48·6] DALYs or 24·3% [15·7-33·2]), high fasting plasma glucose (28·9 million [19·8-41·5] DALYs or 20·2% [13·8-29·1]), ambient particulate matter pollution (28·7 million [23·4-33·4] DALYs or 20·1% [16·6-23·0]), and smoking (25·3 million [22·6-28·2] DALYs or 17·6% [16·4-19·0]).

INTERPRETATION

The annual number of strokes and deaths due to stroke increased substantially from 1990 to 2019, despite substantial reductions in age-standardised rates, particularly among people older than 70 years. The highest age-standardised stroke-related mortality and DALY rates were in the World Bank low-income group. The fastest-growing risk factor for stroke between 1990 and 2019 was high body-mass index. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in low-income countries.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

US Health Care Spending by Race and Ethnicity, 2002-2016

Importance

Measuring health care spending by race and ethnicity is important for understanding patterns in utilization and treatment.

Objective

To estimate, identify, and account for differences in health care spending by race and ethnicity from 2002 through 2016 in the US.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This exploratory study included data from 7.3 million health system visits, admissions, or prescriptions captured in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2002-2016) and the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (2002-2012), which were combined with the insured population and notified case estimates from the National Health Interview Survey (2002; 2016) and health care spending estimates from the Disease Expenditure project (1996-2016).

Exposure

Six mutually exclusive self-reported race and ethnicity groups.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Total and age-standardized health care spending per person by race and ethnicity for each year from 2002 through 2016 by type of care. Health care spending per notified case by race and ethnicity for key diseases in 2016. Differences in health care spending across race and ethnicity groups were decomposed into differences in utilization rate vs differences in price and intensity of care.

Results

In 2016, an estimated $2.4 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $2.4 trillion-$2.4 trillion) was spent on health care across the 6 types of care included in this study. The estimated age-standardized total health care spending per person in 2016 was $7649 (95% UI, $6129-$8814) for American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals; $4692 (95% UI, $4068-$5202) for Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals; $7361 (95% UI, $6917-$7797) for Black (non-Hispanic) individuals; $6025 (95% UI, $5703-$6373) for Hispanic individuals; $9276 (95% UI, $8066-$10 601) for individuals categorized as multiple races (non-Hispanic); and $8141 (95% UI, $8038-$8258) for White (non-Hispanic) individuals, who accounted for an estimated 72% (95% UI, 71%-73%) of health care spending. After adjusting for population size and age, White individuals received an estimated 15% (95% UI, 13%-17%; P < .001) more spending on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Black (non-Hispanic) individuals received an estimated 26% (95% UI, 19%-32%; P < .001) less spending than the all-population mean on ambulatory care but received 19% (95% UI, 3%-32%; P = .02) more on inpatient and 12% (95% UI, 4%-24%; P = .04) more on emergency department care. Hispanic individuals received an estimated 33% (95% UI, 26%-37%; P < .001) less spending per person on ambulatory care than the all-population mean. Asian, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander (non-Hispanic) individuals received less spending than the all-population mean on all types of care except dental (all P < .001), while American Indian and Alaska Native (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 90% more; 95% UI, 11%-165%; P = .04), and multiple-race (non-Hispanic) individuals had more spending on emergency department care than the all-population mean (estimated 40% more; 95% UI, 19%-63%; P = .006). All 18 of the statistically significant race and ethnicity spending differences by type of care corresponded with differences in utilization. These differences persisted when controlling for underlying disease burden.

Conclusions and Relevance

In the US from 2002 through 2016, health care spending varied by race and ethnicity across different types of care even after adjusting for age and health conditions. Further research is needed to determine current health care spending by race and ethnicity, including spending related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The burden of cardiovascular diseases in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2017: evidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study

In Ethiopia, evidence on the national burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) is limited. To address this gap, this systematic analysis estimated the burden of CVDs in Ethiopia using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study data. The age-standardized CVD prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and mortality rates in Ethiopia were 5534 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5310.09 - 5774.0), 3549.6 (95% UI 3229.0 - 3911.9) and 182.63 (95% UI 165.49 - 203.9) per 100 000 population, respectively. Compared with 1990, the age-standardized CVD prevalence rate in 2017 showed no change. But significant reductions were observed in CVD mortality (54.7%), CVD DALYs (57.7%) and all-cause mortality (53.4%). The top three prevalent CVDs were ischaemic heart disease, rheumatic heart disease and stroke in descending order. The reduction in the mortality rate due to CVDs is slower than for communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional disease mortalities. As a result, CVDs are the leading cause of mortality in Ethiopia. These findings urge Ethiopia to consider CVDs as a priority public health problem.

The burden of neurological disorders across the states of India: the Global Burden of Disease Study 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

A systematic understanding of the burden of neurological disorders at the subnational level is not readily available for India. We present a comprehensive analysis of the disease burden and trends of neurological disorders at the state level in India.

METHODS

Using all accessible data from multiple sources, we estimated the prevalence or incidence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for neurological disorders from 1990 to 2019 for all states of India as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We assessed the contribution of each neurological disorder to deaths and DALYs in India in 2019, their trends in prevalence or incidence and DALY rates over time, and heterogeneity between the states of India. We also assessed the Pearson correlation coefficient between Socio-demographic Index (SDI) of the states and the prevalence or incidence and DALY rates of each neurological disorder. Additionally, we estimated the contribution of known risk factors to DALYs from neurological disorders. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the mean estimates.

FINDINGS

The contribution of non-communicable neurological disorders to total DALYs in India doubled from 4·0% (95% UI 3·2-5·0) in 1990 to 8·2% (6·6-10·2) in 2019, and the contribution of injury-related neurological disorders increased from 0·2% (0·2-0·3) to 0·6% (0·5-0·7). Conversely, the contribution of communicable neurological disorders decreased from 4·1% (3·5-4·8) to 1·1% (0·9-1·5) during the same period. In 2019, the largest contributors to the total neurological disorder DALYs in India were stroke (37·9% [29·9-46·1]), headache disorders (17·5% [3·6-32·5]), epilepsy (11·3% [9·0-14·3]), cerebral palsy (5·7% [4·2-7·7]), and encephalitis (5·3% [3·7-8·9]). The crude DALY rate of several neurological disorders had considerable heterogeneity between the states in 2019, with the highest variation for tetanus (93·2 times), meningitis (8·3 times), and stroke (5·5 times). SDI of the states had a moderate significant negative correlation with communicable neurological disorder DALY rate and a moderate significant positive correlation with injury-related neurological disorder DALY rate in 2019. For most of the non-communicable neurological disorders, there was an increase in prevalence or incidence from 1990 to 2019. Substantial decreases were evident in the incidence and DALY rates of communicable neurological disorders during the same period. Migraine and multiple sclerosis were more prevalent among females than males and traumatic brain injuries were more common among males than females in 2019. Communicable diseases contributed to the majority of total neurological disorder DALYs in children younger than 5 years, and non-communicable neurological disorders were the highest contributor in all other age groups. In 2019, the leading risk factors contributing to DALYs due to non-communicable neurological disorders in India included high systolic blood pressure, air pollution, dietary risks, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. For communicable disorders, the identified risk factors with modest contributions to DALYs were low birthweight and short gestation and air pollution.

INTERPRETATION

The increasing contribution of non-communicable and injury-related neurological disorders to the overall disease burden in India, and the substantial state-level variation in the burden of many neurological disorders highlight the need for state-specific health system responses to address the gaps in neurology services related to awareness, early identification, treatment, and rehabilitation.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; and Indian Council of Medical Research, Department of Health Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India.

Abstract 062: Global Patterns Of Mean Systolic Blood Pressure Over Three Decades: Results From The Global Burden Of Disease 2019 Study

Background: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and its risk factors are increasing globally. We estimated global and regional mean levels of systolic blood pressure (SBP) for the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study.

Methods: Mean SBP in mm Hg was estimated by age (adults >25 years), sex, location and year using all available population-based health surveys and studies that systematically measured brachial blood pressure. Estimates were produced using a Bayesian statistical model, spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, which produces a smoothed time series from 1990 to 2019, borrowing strength over space and time, then aggregates to GBD regions. Each point in the figure represents age- and sex-specific mean SBP for one of 21 GBD regions, color coded by the 7 GBD super regions; black triangles denote global mean SBP. We report 95% uncertainty intervals in brackets.

Results: Globally, mean SBP increased with age, peaking at 75-84 years, followed by a plateau and slight decline amongst oldest adults. In adults >60 in 1990 and >70 in 2019, females had higher SBP than males globally; this difference declined over time. In 1990, mean SBP was highest among females in Central Europe aged 60-64 (150 [147- 154]) and High-income Asia Pacific aged 80-84 (150 [147 - 152]), and in males aged 80-84 in Western Europe (150 [147-152]) and High-income Asia Pacific (148 [146 - 150]). By 2019, mean SBP was highest among adults aged 80-84 in Western and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa for both females (150 [136 - 164]; 149 [142 - 156], respectively), and males (145 [140 - 150]; 144 [136 - 153], respectively).

Conclusions: SBP increased globally with age and was higher in older women than men. The 5-year age group with highest estimated SBP shifted over time from parts of Europe and High-income Asia Pacific to parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. Elevated SBP remains a major health risk for the world’s population, suggesting a need for increased investments in understanding its etiologies and how to treat and eventually prevent it as a cause of disease.

Trends in Patient Characteristics and COVID-19 In-Hospital Mortality in the United States During the COVID-19 Pandemic

IMPORTANCE

In-hospital mortality rates from COVID-19 are high but appear to be decreasing for selected locations in the United States. It is not known whether this is because of changes in the characteristics of patients being admitted.

OBJECTIVE

To describe changing in-hospital mortality rates over time after accounting for individual patient characteristics.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This was a retrospective cohort study of 20 736 adults with a diagnosis of COVID-19 who were included in the US American Heart Association COVID-19 Cardiovascular Disease Registry and admitted to 107 acute care hospitals in 31 states from March through November 2020. A multiple mixed-effects logistic regression was then used to estimate the odds of in-hospital death adjusted for patient age, sex, body mass index, and medical history as well as vital signs, use of supplemental oxygen, presence of pulmonary infiltrates at admission, and hospital site.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

In-hospital death adjusted for exposures for 4 periods in 2020.

RESULTS

The registry included 20 736 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from March through November 2020 (9524 women [45.9%]; mean [SD] age, 61.2 [17.9] years); 3271 patients (15.8%) died in the hospital. Mortality rates were 19.1% in March and April, 11.9% in May and June, 11.0% in July and August, and 10.8% in September through November. Compared with March and April, the adjusted odds ratios for in-hospital death were significantly lower in May and June (odds ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.58-0.76; P < .001), July and August (odds ratio, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.49-0.69; P < .001), and September through November (odds ratio, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.47-0.73).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study, high rates of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality among registry patients in March and April 2020 decreased by more than one-third by June and remained near that rate through November. This difference in mortality rates between the months of March and April and later months persisted even after adjusting for age, sex, medical history, and COVID-19 disease severity and did not appear to be associated with changes in the characteristics of patients being admitted.

Spending on Cardiovascular Disease and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the United States: 1996 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Spending on cardiovascular disease and cardiovascular risk factors (cardiovascular spending) accounts for a significant portion of overall US health care spending. Our objective was to describe US adult cardiovascular spending patterns in 2016, changes from 1996 to 2016, and factors associated with changes over time.

METHODS

We extracted information on adult cardiovascular spending from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's disease expenditure project, which combines data on insurance claims, emergency department and ambulatory care visits, inpatient and nursing care facility stays, and drug prescriptions to estimate >85% of all US health care spending. Cardiovascular spending (2016 US dollars) was stratified by age, sex, type of care, payer, and cardiovascular cause. Time trend and decomposition analyses quantified contributions of epidemiology, service price and intensity (spending per unit of utilization, eg, spending per inpatient bed-day), and population growth and aging to the increase in cardiovascular spending from 1996 to 2016.

RESULTS

Adult cardiovascular spending increased from $212 billion in 1996 to $320 billion in 2016, a period when the US population increased by >52 million people, and median age increased from 33.2 to 36.9 years. Over this period, public insurance was responsible for the majority of cardiovascular spending (54%), followed by private insurance (37%) and out-of-pocket spending (9%). Health services for ischemic heart disease ($80 billion) and hypertension ($71 billion) led to the most spending in 2016. Increased spending between 1996 and 2016 was primarily driven by treatment of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and atrial fibrillation/flutter, for which spending rose by $42 billion, $18 billion, and $16 billion, respectively. Increasing service price and intensity alone were associated with a 51%, or $88 billion, cardiovascular spending increase from 1996 to 2016, whereas changes in disease prevalence were associated with a 37%, or $36 billion, spending reduction over the same period, after taking into account population growth and population aging.

CONCLUSIONS

US adult cardiovascular spending increased by >$100 billion from 1996 to 2016. Policies tailored to control service price and intensity and preferentially reimburse higher quality care could help counteract future spending increases caused by population aging and growth.

Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2021 Update: A Report From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

The American Heart Association, in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, diet, and weight) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, and glucose control) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, heart failure, valvular disease, venous disease, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs).

METHODS

The American Heart Association, through its Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update. The 2021 Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and American Heart Association staff members. This year's edition includes data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, an enhanced focus on social determinants of health, adverse pregnancy outcomes, vascular contributions to brain health, the global burden of cardiovascular disease, and further evidence-based approaches to changing behaviors related to cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Each of the 27 chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics.

CONCLUSIONS

The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policy makers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Burden of Neurological Disorders Across the US From 1990-2017: A Global Burden of Disease Study

Question

What is the current burden of neurological disorders in the US by states, and what are the temporal trends (from 1990 to 2017)?

Findings

Systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study shows that, in 2017, the 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US were stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, and migraine. The burden of individual neurological disorders varied moderately to widely by states (a 1.2-fold to 7.5-fold difference), and the absolute numbers of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases and disability-adjusted life-years of neurological disorders (except for traumatic brain injury incidence; spinal cord injury prevalence; meningitis prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years; and encephalitis disability-adjusted life-years) across all US states increased from 1990 to 2017.

Meaning

A large and increasing number of people have various neurological disorders in the US, with significant variation in the burden of and trends in neurological disorders across the US states, and the reasons for these geographic variations need to be explored further.

Importance

Accurate and up-to-date estimates on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (burden) of neurological disorders are the backbone of evidence-based health care planning and resource allocation for these disorders. It appears that no such estimates have been reported at the state level for the US.

Objective

To present burden estimates of major neurological disorders in the US states by age and sex from 1990 to 2017.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This is a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of major neurological disorders were derived from the GBD 2017 study of the 48 contiguous US states, Alaska, and Hawaii. Fourteen major neurological disorders were analyzed: stroke, Alzheimer disease and other dementias, Parkinson disease, epilepsy, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron disease, migraine, tension-type headache, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injuries, brain and other nervous system cancers, meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus.

Exposures

Any of the 14 listed neurological diseases.

Main Outcome and Measure

Absolute numbers in detail by age and sex and age-standardized rates (with 95% uncertainty intervals) were calculated.

Results

The 3 most burdensome neurological disorders in the US in terms of absolute number of DALYs were stroke (3.58 [95% uncertainty interval [UI], 3.25-3.92] million DALYs), Alzheimer disease and other dementias (2.55 [95% UI, 2.43-2.68] million DALYs), and migraine (2.40 [95% UI, 1.53-3.44] million DALYs). The burden of almost all neurological disorders (in terms of absolute number of incident, prevalent, and fatal cases, as well as DALYs) increased from 1990 to 2017, largely because of the aging of the population. Exceptions for this trend included traumatic brain injury incidence (−29.1% [95% UI, −32.4% to −25.8%]); spinal cord injury prevalence (−38.5% [95% UI, −43.1% to −34.0%]); meningitis prevalence (−44.8% [95% UI, −47.3% to −42.3%]), deaths (−64.4% [95% UI, −67.7% to −50.3%]), and DALYs (−66.9% [95% UI, −70.1% to −55.9%]); and encephalitis DALYs (−25.8% [95% UI, −30.7% to −5.8%]). The different metrics of age-standardized rates varied between the US states from a 1.2-fold difference for tension-type headache to 7.5-fold for tetanus; southeastern states and Arkansas had a relatively higher burden for stroke, while northern states had a relatively higher burden of multiple sclerosis and eastern states had higher rates of Parkinson disease, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine and tension-type headache, and meningitis, encephalitis, and tetanus.

Conclusions and Relevance

There is a large and increasing burden of noncommunicable neurological disorders in the US, with up to a 5-fold variation in the burden of and trends in particular neurological disorders across the US states. The information reported in this article can be used by health care professionals and policy makers at the national and state levels to advance their health care planning and resource allocation to prevent and reduce the burden of neurological disorders.

Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors, 1990-2019: Update From the GBD 2019 Study

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), principally ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the leading cause of global mortality and a major contributor to disability. This paper reviews the magnitude of total CVD burden, including 13 underlying causes of cardiovascular death and 9 related risk factors, using estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. GBD, an ongoing multinational collaboration to provide comparable and consistent estimates of population health over time, used all available population-level data sources on incidence, prevalence, case fatality, mortality, and health risks to produce estimates for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Prevalent cases of total CVD nearly doubled from 271 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 257 to 285 million) in 1990 to 523 million (95% UI: 497 to 550 million) in 2019, and the number of CVD deaths steadily increased from 12.1 million (95% UI:11.4 to 12.6 million) in 1990, reaching 18.6 million (95% UI: 17.1 to 19.7 million) in 2019. The global trends for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life lost also increased significantly, and years lived with disability doubled from 17.7 million (95% UI: 12.9 to 22.5 million) to 34.4 million (95% UI:24.9 to 43.6 million) over that period. The total number of DALYs due to IHD has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 182 million (95% UI: 170 to 194 million) DALYs, 9.14 million (95% UI: 8.40 to 9.74 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 197 million (95% UI: 178 to 220 million) prevalent cases of IHD in 2019. The total number of DALYs due to stroke has risen steadily since 1990, reaching 143 million (95% UI: 133 to 153 million) DALYs, 6.55 million (95% UI: 6.00 to 7.02 million) deaths in the year 2019, and 101 million (95% UI: 93.2 to 111 million) prevalent cases of stroke in 2019. Cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of disease burden in the world. CVD burden continues its decades-long rise for almost all countries outside high-income countries, and alarmingly, the age-standardized rate of CVD has begun to rise in some locations where it was previously declining in high-income countries. There is an urgent need to focus on implementing existing cost-effective policies and interventions if the world is to meet the targets for Sustainable Development Goal 3 and achieve a 30% reduction in premature mortality due to noncommunicable diseases.

Trends in cardiovascular diseases burden and vascular risk factors in Italy: The Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2017

AIMS

An exhaustive and updated estimation of cardiovascular disease burden and vascular risk factors is still lacking in European countries. This study aims to fill this gap assessing the global Italian cardiovascular disease burden and its changes from 1990 to 2017 and comparing the Italian situation with European countries.

METHODS

All accessible data sources from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study were used to estimate the cardiovascular disease prevalence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years and cardiovascular disease attributable risk factors burden in Italy from 1990 to 2017. Furthermore, we compared the cardiovascular disease burden within the 28 European Union countries.

RESULTS

Since 1990, we observed a significant decrease of cardiovascular disease burden, particularly in the age-standardised prevalence (-12.7%), mortality rate (-53.8%), and disability-adjusted life years rate (-55.5%). Similar improvements were observed in the majority of European countries. However, we found an increase in all-ages prevalence of cardiovascular diseases from 5.75 m to 7.49 m Italian residents. Cardiovascular diseases still remain the first cause of death (34.8% of total mortality). More than 80% of the cardiovascular disease burden could be attributed to known modifiable risk factors such as high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low density lipoprotein cholesterol, and impaired kidney function.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows a decline in cardiovascular mortality and disability-adjusted life years, which reflects the success in reducing disability, premature death and early incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, the burden of cardiovascular diseases is still high. An approach that includes the cooperation and coordination of all stakeholders of the Italian National Health System is required to further reduce this burden.

QT interval and arrhythmic safety of hydroxychloroquine monotherapy in coronavirus disease 2019

BACKGROUND

Observational studies have suggested increased arrhythmic and cardiovascular risk with the combination use of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) and azithromycin in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

OBJECTIVE

The arrhythmic safety profile of HCQ monotherapy, which remains under investigation as a therapeutic and prophylactic agent in COVID-19, is less established and we sought to evaluate this.

METHODS

In 245 consecutive patients with COVID-19 admitted to the University of Washington hospital system between March 9, 2020, and May 10, 2020, we identified 111 treated with HCQ monotherapy. Patients treated with HCQ underwent a systematic arrhythmia and QT interval surveillance protocol including serial electrocardiograms (ECG) (baseline, following second HCQ dose). The primary endpoint was in-hospital sustained ventricular arrhythmia or arrhythmic cardiac arrest. Secondary endpoints included clinically significant QTc prolongation.

RESULTS

A total of 111 patients with COVID-19 underwent treatment with HCQ monotherapy (mean age 62 ± 16 years, 44 women [39%], serum creatinine 0.9 [interquartile range 0.4] mg/dL). There were no instances of sustained ventricular arrythmia or arrhythmic cardiac arrest. In 75 patients with serial ECGs, clinically significant corrected QT (QTc) prolongation was observed in a minority (n = 5 [7%]). In patients with serial ECGs, there was no significant change in the QTc interval in prespecified subgroups of interest, including those with prevalent cardiovascular disease or baseline use of renin-angiotensin-aldosterone axis inhibitors.

CONCLUSIONS

In the context of a systematic monitoring protocol, HCQ monotherapy in hospitalized COVID-19 patients was not associated with malignant ventricular arrhythmia. A minority of patients demonstrated clinically significant QTc prolongation during HCQ therapy.

Burden of Stroke in Europe: Thirty-Year Projections of Incidence, Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Prediction of stroke impact provides essential information for healthcare planning and priority setting. We aim to estimate 30-year projections of stroke epidemiology in the European Union using multiple modeling approaches.

METHODS

Data on stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years in the European Union between 1990 and 2017 were obtained from the global burden of disease study. Their trends over time were modeled using 3 modeling strategies: linear, Poisson, and exponential regressions-adjusted for the gross domestic product per capita, which reflects the impact of economic development on health status. We used the Akaike information criterion for model selection. The 30-year projections up to 2047 were estimated using the best fitting models, with inputs on population projections from the United Nations and gross domestic product per capita prospects from the World Bank. The technique was applied separately by age-sex-country groups for each stroke measure.

RESULTS

In 2017, there were 1.12 million incident strokes in the European Union, 9.53 million stroke survivors, 0.46 million deaths, and 7.06 million disability-adjusted life years lost because of stroke. By 2047, we estimated an additional 40 000 incident strokes (+3%) and 2.58 million prevalent cases (+27%). Conversely, 80 000 fewer deaths (-17%) and 2.31 million fewer disability-adjusted life years lost (-33%) are projected. The largest increase in the age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates are expected in Lithuania (average annual percentage change, 0.48% and 0.7% respectively), and the greatest reductions in Portugal (-1.57% and -1.3%). Average annual percentage change in mortality rates will range from -2.86% (Estonia) to -0.08% (Lithuania), and disability-adjusted life years' from -2.77% (Estonia) to -0.23% (Romania).

CONCLUSIONS

The number of people living with stroke is estimated to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2047 in the European Union, mainly because of population ageing and improved survival rates. Variations are expected to persist between countries showing opportunities for improvements in prevention and case management particularly in Eastern Europe.

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Calcific Aortic Valve and Degenerative Mitral Valve Diseases, 1990-2017

BACKGROUND

Nonrheumatic valvular diseases are common; however, no studies have estimated their global or national burden. As part of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for calcific aortic valve disease (CAVD), degenerative mitral valve disease, and other nonrheumatic valvular diseases were estimated for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Vital registration data, epidemiologic survey data, and administrative hospital data were used to estimate disease burden using the Global Burden of Disease Study modeling framework, which ensures comparability across locations. Geospatial statistical methods were used to estimate disease for all countries, because data on nonrheumatic valvular diseases are extremely limited for some regions of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Results accounted for estimated level of disease severity as well as the estimated availability of valve repair or replacement procedures. DALYs and other measures of health-related burden were generated for both sexes and each 5-year age group, location, and year from 1990 to 2017.

RESULTS

Globally, CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease caused 102 700 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 82 700-107 900) and 35 700 (95% UI, 30 500-42 500) deaths, and 12.6 million (95% UI, 11.4 million-13.8 million) and 18.1 million (95% UI, 17.6 million-18.6 million) prevalent cases existed in 2017, respectively. A total of 2.5 million (95% UI, 2.3 million-2.8 million) DALYs were estimated as caused by nonrheumatic valvular diseases globally, representing 0.10% (95% UI, 0.09%-0.11%) of total lost health from all diseases in 2017. The number of DALYs increased for CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease between 1990 and 2017 by 101% (95% UI, 79%-117%) and 35% (95% UI, 23%-47%), respectively. There is significant geographic variation in the prevalence, mortality rate, and overall burden of these diseases, with highest age-standardized DALY rates of CAVD estimated for high-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

These global and national estimates demonstrate that CAVD and degenerative mitral valve disease are important causes of disease burden among older adults. Efforts to clarify modifiable risk factors and improve access to valve interventions are necessary if progress is to be made toward reducing, and eventually eliminating, the burden of these highly treatable diseases.

The American Heart Association 2030 Impact Goal: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association

Each decade, the American Heart Association (AHA) develops an Impact Goal to guide its overall strategic direction and investments in its research, quality improvement, advocacy, and public health programs. Guided by the AHA’s new Mission Statement, to be a relentless force for a world of longer, healthier lives, the 2030 Impact Goal is anchored in an understanding that to achieve cardiovascular health for all, the AHA must include a broader vision of health and well-being and emphasize health equity. In the next decade, by 2030, the AHA will strive to equitably increase healthy life expectancy beyond current projections, with global and local collaborators, from 66 years of age to at least 68 years of age across the United States and from 64 years of age to at least 67 years of age worldwide. The AHA commits to developing additional targets for equity and well-being to accompany this overarching Impact Goal. To attain the 2030 Impact Goal, we recommend a thoughtful evaluation of interventions available to the public, patients, providers, healthcare delivery systems, communities, policy makers, and legislators. This presidential advisory summarizes the task force’s main considerations in determining the 2030 Impact Goal and the metrics to monitor progress. It describes the aspiration that these goals will be achieved by working with a diverse community of volunteers, patients, scientists, healthcare professionals, and partner organizations needed to ensure success.

Global, regional, and national burden of congenital heart disease, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

BACKGROUND

Previous congenital heart disease estimates came from few data sources, were geographically narrow, and did not evaluate congenital heart disease throughout the life course. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, this study aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of congenital heart disease mortality, prevalence, and disability by age for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017.

METHODS

Mortality estimates were generated for aggregate congenital heart disease and non-fatal estimates for five subcategories (single ventricle and single ventricle pathway congenital heart anomalies; severe congenital heart anomalies excluding single ventricle heart defects; critical malformations of great vessels, congenital valvular heart disease, and patent ductus arteriosus; ventricular septal defect and atrial septal defect; and other congenital heart anomalies), for 1990 through to 2017. All available global data were systematically analysed to generate congenital heart disease mortality estimates (using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling) and prevalence estimates (DisMod-MR 2·1). Systematic literature reviews of all types of congenital anomalies to capture information on prevalence, associated mortality, and long-term health outcomes on congenital heart disease informed subsequent disability estimates.

FINDINGS

Congenital heart disease caused 261 247 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 216 567-308 159) globally in 2017, a 34·5% decline from 1990, with 180 624 deaths (146 825-214 178) being among infants (aged <1 years). Congenital heart disease mortality rates declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index (SDI); most deaths occurred in countries in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. The prevalence rates of congenital heart disease at birth changed little temporally or by SDI, resulting in 11 998 283 (10 958 658-13 123 888) people living with congenital heart disease globally, an 18·7% increase from 1990 to 2017, and causing a total of 589 479 (287 200-973 359) years lived with disability.

INTERPRETATION

Congenital heart disease is a large, rapidly emerging global problem in child health. Without the ability to substantially alter the prevalence of congenital heart disease, interventions and resources must be used to improve survival and quality of life. Our findings highlight the large global inequities in congenital heart disease and can serve as a starting point for policy changes to improve screening, treatment, and data collection.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.