Maternal education and its influence on child growth and nutritional status during the first two years of life: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The first 1000 days of life are critical for a child's health and development. Impaired growth during this period is linked to increased child morbidity, mortality, and long-term consequences. Undernutrition is the main cause, and addressing it within the first 1000 days of life is vital. Maternal education is consistently identified as a significant predictor of child undernutrition, but its specific impact remains to be determined. This study presents a systematic review and meta-analysis investigating the influence of high versus low maternal education levels on child growth from birth to age two, using population-based cohort studies.

Methods

Databases including PubMed, Scopus, EMBASE, Web of Science, ERIC, and Google Scholar were searched from January 1990 to January 2024 using appropriate search terms. We included population-based cohort studies of healthy children aged two years and under and their mothers, categorizing maternal education levels. Child growth and nutritional outcomes were assessed using various indicators. Two reviewers independently conducted data extraction and assessed study quality. The Newcastle Ottawa scale was utilized for quality assessment. Random-effects models were used for meta-analysis, and heterogeneity was assessed using the Cochrane Q and I2 statistic. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were performed, and publication bias was evaluated.

Findings

The literature search retrieved 14,295 titles, and after full-text screening of 639 reports, 35 studies were included, covering eight outcomes: weight for age z-score (WAZ), height for age z-score (HAZ), BMI for age z-scores (BMIZ), overweight, underweight, stunting, wasting, and rapid weight gain. In middle-income countries, higher maternal education is significantly associated with elevated WAZ (MD 0.398, 95% CI 0.301-0.496) and HAZ (MD 0.388, 95% CI 0.102-0.673) in children. Similarly, in studies with low-educated population, higher maternal education is significantly linked to increased WAZ (MD 0.186, 95% CI 0.078-0.294) and HAZ (0.200, 95% CI 0.036-0.365). However, in high-income and highly educated population, this association is either absent or reversed. In high-income countries, higher maternal education is associated with a non-significant lower BMI-Z (MD -0.028, 95% CI -0.061 to 0.006). Notably, this inverse association is statistically significant in low-educated populations (MD -0.045, 95% CI -0.079 to -0.011) but not in highly educated populations (MD 0.003, 95% CI -0.093 to 0.098).

Interpretation

Maternal education's association with child growth varies based on country income and education levels. Further research is needed to understand this relationship better.

Funding

This study was a student thesis supported financially by Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS).

Diabetes is associated with increased liver cancer incidence and mortality in adults: A report from Asia Cohort Consortium

There has been growing evidence suggesting that diabetes may be associated with increased liver cancer risk. However, studies conducted in Asian countries are limited. This project considered data of 968,738 adults pooled from 20 cohort studies of Asia Cohort Consortium to examine the association between baseline diabetes and liver cancer incidence and mortality. Cox proportional hazard model and competing risk approach was used for pooled data. Two-stage meta-analysis across studies was also done. There were 839,194 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer incidence (5654 liver cancer cases [48.29/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (44,781 with diabetes [5.3%]). There were 747,198 subjects with valid data regarding liver cancer mortality (5020 liver cancer deaths [44.03/100,000 person-years]), follow-up time and baseline diabetes (43,243 with diabetes [5.8%]). Hazard ratio (HR) (95% confidence interval [95%CI]) of liver cancer diagnosis in those with vs. without baseline diabetes was 1.97 (1.79, 2.16) (p < .0001) after adjusting for baseline age, gender, body mass index, tobacco smoking, alcohol use, and heterogeneity across studies (n = 586,072; events = 4620). Baseline diabetes was associated with increased cumulative incidence of death due to liver cancer (adjusted HR (95%CI) = 1.97 (1.79, 2.18); p < .0001) (n = 595,193; events = 4110). A two-stage meta-analytic approach showed similar results. This paper adds important population-based evidence to current literature regarding the increased incidence and mortality of liver cancer in adults with diabetes. The analysis of data pooled from 20 studies of different Asian countries and the meta-analysis across studies with large number of subjects makes the results robust.

A population-based prospective study on obesity-related non-communicable diseases in northern Iran: rationale, study design, and baseline analysis

Background

Iran is facing an epidemiological transition with the increasing burden of non-communicable diseases, such as obesity-related disorders and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We conducted a population-based prospective study to assess the prevalence and incidence rates of CVDs and obesity-related metabolic disorders and to evaluate the predictive ability of various CVD risk assessment tools in an Iranian population.

Method

We enrolled 5,799 participants in Amol, a city in northern Iran, in 2009-2010 and carried out the first repeated measurement (RM) after seven years (2016-2017). For all participants, demographic, anthropometric, laboratory, hepatobiliary imaging, and electrocardiography data have been collected in the enrollment and the RM. After enrollment, all participants have been and will be followed up annually for 20 years, both actively and passively.

Results

We adopted a multidisciplinary approach to overcome barriers to participation and achieved a 7-year follow-up success rate of 93.0% with an active follow-up of 5,394 participants aged 18-90 years. In the RM, about 64.0% of men and 81.2% of women were obese or overweight. In 2017, about 16.2% and 5.2% of men had moderate or severe non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, while women had a significantly higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (35.9%), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (20.9%) than men. Of 160 deceased participants, 69 cases (43.1%) died due to CVDs over seven years.

Conclusion

The most prevalent obesity-related chronic disease in the study was metabolic syndrome. Across the enrollment and RM phases, women exhibited a higher prevalence of obesity-related metabolic disorders. Focusing on obesity-related metabolic disorders in a population not represented previously and a multidisciplinary approach for enrolling and following up were the strengths of this study. The study outcomes offer an evidence base for future research and inform policies regarding non-communicable diseases in northern Iran.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

Validity and reproducibility of the PERSIAN Cohort food frequency questionnaire: assessment of major dietary patterns

BACKGROUND

Dietary patterns, encompassing an overall view of individuals' dietary intake, are suggested as a suitable means of assessing nutrition's role in chronic disease development. The aim of this study was to evaluate the validity and reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) designed for use in the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN), by comparing major dietary patterns assessed by the FFQ with a reference method.

METHODS

Study participants included men and women who enrolled in the PERSIAN Cohort Study at seven of the eighteen centers. These centers were chosen to include dietary variations observed among the different Iranian ethnic populations. Two FFQ were completed for each participant over a one-year study period (FFQ1 upon enrollment and FFQ2 at the end of the study), with 24 interviewer-administered 24-hour dietary recalls (24 h) being completed monthly in between. Spearman correlation coefficients (SCC) were used comparing FFQs 1 and 2 to the 24 h to assess validity, while FFQ1 was compared to FFQ2 to assess reproducibility of the questionnaire.

RESULTS

Three major dietary patterns-Healthy, Low Protein/High Carb and Unhealthy-were identified, accounting for 70% of variance in the study population. Corrected SCC ranged from 0.31 to 0.61 in the validity and from 0.34 to 0.57 in reproducibility analyses, with the first two patterns, which accounted for over 50% of population variance, correlated at above 0.5 in both parameters, showing acceptable findings.

CONCLUSIONS

The PERSIAN Cohort FFQ is suitable for identification of major dietary patterns in the populations it is used for, in order to assess diet-disease relationships.

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines and incidence of esophageal cancer

BACKGROUND

Studying carcinogens in tobacco and nontobacco sources may be key to understanding the pathogenesis and geographic distribution of esophageal cancer.

METHODS

The Golestan Cohort Study has been conducted since 2004 in a region with high rates of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. For this nested study, the cases comprised of all incident cases by January 1, 2018; controls were matched to the case by age, sex, residence, time in cohort, and tobacco use. We measured urinary concentrations of 33 exposure biomarkers of nicotine, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and tobacco-specific nitrosamines. We used conditional logistic regression to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the 90th vs the 10th percentiles of the biomarker concentrations and incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

RESULTS

Among individuals who did not currently use tobacco (148 cases and 163 controls), 2 acrolein metabolites, 2 acrylonitrile metabolites, 1 propylene oxide metabolite, and one 1,3-butadiene metabolite were significantly associated with incident esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (adjusted odds ratios between 1.8 and 4.3). Among tobacco users (57 cases and 63 controls), metabolites of 2 other volatile organic compounds (styrene and xylene) were associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OR = 6.2 and 9.0, respectively). In tobacco users, 2 tobacco-specific nitrosamines (NNN and N'-Nitrosoanatabine) were also associated with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Suggestive associations were seen with some polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (especially 2-hydroxynaphthalene) in nonusers of tobacco products and other tobacco-specific nitrosamines in tobacco users.

CONCLUSION

These novel associations based on individual-level data and samples collected many years before cancer diagnosis, from a population without occupational exposure, have important public health implications.

Prevalence of metabolically healthy obesity and healthy overweight and the associated factors in southern Iran: A population-based cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Obesity is considered a major growing threat to public health which could negatively affect the quality of life. The current cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate the population-based prevalence of metabolically healthy obesity (MHO) and healthy overweight (MHOW) and associated factors in southern Iran.

Methods

Baseline data from the Pars Cohort Study was analyzed. Metabolically healthy participants were identified based on the definition of the American Heart Association for the metabolic syndrome. The prevalence of MHOW and MHO and their 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Poisson regression was applied for the calculation of prevalence ratios (PRs).

Results

Gender- and age-standardized prevalences of MHOW and MHO were 6.3% (6.0%-6.6%) and 2.3% (2.1%-2.5%), respectively. The following factors were associated with being MHOW compared with those with normal weight: Being younger, female gender (1.31, 1.20-1.43), higher socioeconomic status, being noncurrent cigarette smoker (1.27, 1.11-1.45), low level of physical activity (1.14, 1.03-1.25), having normal overweight during adolescence, and overweight (1.35, 1.24-1.48) or obesity (1.68, 1.53-1.86) during young adulthood. We also found strong associations between MHO and younger age groups, female gender (2.87, 2.40-3.42), being married (1.57, 1.08-2.27), Fars ethnicity (1.25, 1.10-1.43), higher socioeconomic status, ever use of tobacco (1.14, 1.00-1.30), never use of opium (1.85, 1.19-2.86), lower physical activity (1.45, 1.20-1.72), being normal weight in 15-year body pictogram and being overweight (1.87, 1.59-2.20) or obese (3.20, 2.74-3.72) in 30-year body pictogram when considering those with normal weight or MHO.

Conclusion

Potentially modifiable factors including physical activity should be more emphasized. Furthermore, our study issued that it would be more reasonable that the prevention of unhealthy obesity be initiated before the development of MHO, where there are more protective factors and they could be more effective.

Mineral Intake and Cardiovascular Disease, Cancer, and All-Cause Mortality: Findings from the Golestan Cohort Study

Associations between mineral intake and mortality in non-Western countries have not been studied adequately. This study evaluated these associations in the Golestan Cohort Study, featuring a Middle Eastern population. The mineral intake was estimated from the baseline food frequency questionnaire, adjusted by using the nutrient density method, and divided into quintiles. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the mortality. We analyzed 41,863 subjects with a mean age of 51.46 ± 8.73 years at the baseline. During 578,694 person-years of follow-up (median: 14.1 Years), 7217 deaths were recorded. Dietary calcium intake was inversely associated with the all-cause mortality (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.91, 95%CI = 0.85-0.99). We observed significant associations between calcium (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.73-0.93), copper (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 1.11, 95% CI = 0.99-1.26), and selenium intake (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 1.14, 95% CI = 1.01-1.29) and CVD mortality. Dietary phosphorus (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.69-0.96) and copper intake (HRQ5 vs. Q1 = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.71-0.99) were inversely associated with cancer mortality. In this study within a Middle Eastern population, a higher dietary intake of calcium exhibited an inverse association with all-cause mortality. Furthermore, nuanced associations were observed in the cause-specific mortality, suggesting potential avenues for dietary interventions and emphasizing the importance of considering dietary factors in public health strategies.

Dental health and lung cancer risk in the Golestan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Poor oral health has been linked to various systemic diseases, including multiple cancer types, but studies of its association with lung cancer have been inconclusive.

METHODS

We examined the relationship between dental status and lung cancer incidence and mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study, a large, prospective cohort of 50,045 adults in northeastern Iran. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between three dental health measures (i.e., number of missing teeth; the sum of decayed, missing, or filled teeth (DMFT); and toothbrushing frequency) and lung cancer incidence or mortality with adjustment for multiple potential confounders, including cigarette smoking and opium use. We created tertiles of the number of lost teeth/DMFT score in excess of the loess adjusted, age- and sex-specific predicted numbers, with subjects with the expected number of lost teeth/DMFT or fewer as the reference group.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 14 years, there were 119 incident lung cancer cases and 98 lung cancer deaths. Higher DMFT scores were associated with a progressively increased risk of lung cancer (linear trend, p = 0.011). Compared with individuals with the expected DMFT score or less, the HRs were 1.27 (95% CI: 0.73, 2.22), 2.15 (95% CI: 1.34, 3.43), and 1.52 (95% CI: 0.81, 2.84) for the first to the third tertiles of DMFT, respectively. The highest tertile of tooth loss also had an increased risk of lung cancer, with a HR of 1.68 (95% CI: 1.04, 2.70) compared with subjects with the expected number of lost teeth or fewer (linear trend, p = 0.043). The results were similar for lung cancer mortality and did not change substantially when the analysis was restricted to never users of cigarettes or opium. We found no associations between toothbrushing frequency and lung cancer incidence or mortality.

CONCLUSION

Poor dental health indicated by tooth loss or DMFT, but not lack of toothbrushing, was associated with increased lung cancer incidence and mortality in this rural Middle Eastern population.

Prevalence and determinants of opioid use disorder among long-term opiate users in Golestan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Number of opiate users worldwide has doubled over the past decade, but not all of them are diagnosed with opioid use disorder. We aimed to identify the prevalence and risk factors for OUD after ten years of follow-up.

METHODS

Among 8,500 chronic opiate users at Golestan Cohort Study baseline (2004-2008), we recalled a random sample of 451 subjects in 2017. We used three questionnaires: a questionnaire about current opiate use including type and route of use, the drug use disorder section of the Composite International Diagnostic Interview lifetime version, and the validated Kessler10 questionnaire. We defined opioid use disorder and its severity based on the DSM-5 criteria and used a cutoff of 12 on Kessler10 questionnaire to define psychological distress.

RESULTS

Mean age was 61.2 ± 6.6 years (84.7% males) and 58% were diagnosed with opioid use disorder. Starting opiate use at an early age and living in underprivileged conditions were risk factors of opioid use disorder. Individuals with opioid use disorder were twice likely to have psychological distress (OR = 2.25; 95%CI: 1.44-3.52) than the users without it. In multivariate regression, former and current opiate dose and oral use of opiates were independently associated with opioid use disorder. Each ten gram per week increase in opiate dose during the study period almost tripled the odds of opioid use disorder (OR = 3.18; 95%CI: 1.79-5.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Chronic opiate use led to clinical opioid use disorder in more than half of the users, and this disorder was associated with psychological distress, increasing its physical and mental burden in high-risk groups.

Polypharmacy and pattern of medication use among patients with gastroesophageal reflux disease: results from Pars Cohort study

BACKGROUND

Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) is a common chronic condition. Its chronic nature may affect the pattern of medication use. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence, associated factors, and patterns of polypharmacy and medication use among GERD patients in southwestern Iran.

METHODS

We used data from the Pars Cohort Study. We classified drugs using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification system. The Lexicomp® database was used to assess potential drug-drug interactions. Multivariable Poisson regression was applied. Adjusted prevalence ratio (PR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 9262 participants were included. Among 2,325 patients with GERD, age-standardized prevalence of polypharmacy was 9.5% (95% CI: 7.5%, 11.6%) in males, and 19.3% (95% CI: 17.2%, 21.4%) in females. The PR of experiencing Polypharmacy by GERD patients compared to non-GERD patients was 1.82 (95% CI: 1.61, 2.05%). Multimorbidity (PR: 3.33; CI: 2.66, 4.15), gender (PR: 1.68; CI: 1.30, 2.18), and metabolic syndrome (PR: 1.77; CI: 1.45, 2.15) were associated with polypharmacy among GERD patients. Drugs for acid-related disorders were the most common used drugs among men, women and elders. We found that 13.9%, 4.2%, and 1.1% of GERD patients had type C, D and X drug interactions, respectively.

CONCLUSION

GERD is correlated with a higher prevalence of polypharmacy. Among GERD patients, females, those with multi-morbidities, and those with metabolic syndrome may be affected more by polypharmacy. Considering the fairly high rate of interactions identified, a review of the medication list is essential when approaching GERD patients, and physicians must check for medications that may worsen GERD.

Iron, Copper, and Magnesium Concentration in Hair and Risk of Esophageal Cancer: A Nested Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

An association has already been hypothesized between iron, copper, and magnesium status assessed through food frequency questionnaires (FFQs) and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, self-reported dietary assessment methods are prone to measurement errors. We studied the association between iron, copper, and magnesium status and ESCC risk, using hair samples as a long exposure biomarker.

METHODS

We designed a nested case-control study within the Golestan Cohort Study, that recruited about 50000 participants in 2004-2008, and collected biospecimens at baseline. We identified 96 incident cases of ESCC with available hair samples. They were age-matched with cancer-free controls from the cohort. We used inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) to measure iron, copper, and magnesium concentrations in hair samples. We used multiple logistic regression models to determine odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals.

RESULTS

Median concentrations of iron, copper, and magnesium were 35.4, 19.3, and 41.7 ppm in cases and 25.8, 18.3, and 50.0 ppm in controls, respectively. Iron was significantly associated with the risk of ESCC in continuous analysis (OR=1.41, 95% CI=1.03-1.92), but not in the tertiles analyses (ORT3 vs. T1=1.81, 95% CI=0.77-4.28). No associations were observed between copper and magnesium and ESCC risk, in either the tertiles models or the continuous estimate (copper: ORT3 vs. T1=2.56, 95% CI=1.00-6.54; magnesium: ORT3 vs. T1=0.75, 95% CI=0.32-1.78).

CONCLUSION

Higher iron status may be related to a higher risk of ESCC in this population.

Smoke exposure associated with higher urinary benzene biomarker muconic acid (MUCA) in Golestan Cohort Study participants

Background. Benzene is a known human carcinogen. Human exposure to benzene can be assessed by measuring trans, trans-muconic acid (MUCA) in urine. Golestan Province in northeastern Iran has been reported to have high incidence of esophageal cancer linked to the use of tobacco products. This manuscript evaluates the urinary MUCA concentrations among the participants of the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS).Methods. We analyzed MUCA concentration in 177 GCS participants' urine samples and performed nonparametric pairwise multiple comparisons to determine statistically significant difference among six different product use groups. Mixed effects model was fitted on 22 participants who exclusively smoked cigarette and 51 participants who were classified as nonusers. The urinary MUCA data were collected at the baseline and approximately five years later, and intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was calculated from the model.Results. Compared with nonusers, tobacco smoking was associated with higher urinary MUCA concentrations. Based on the nonparametric test of pairwise multiple comparisons, MUCA concentrations among participants who smoked combusted tobacco products were statistically significantly higher compared to nonusers. Urinary MUCA collected five years apart from the same individuals showed moderate reliability (ICC = 0.41), which was expected given the relatively short half-life (∼6 h) of MUCA.Conclusion. Our study revealed that tobacco smoke was positively associated with increased levels of urinary MUCA concentration, indicating that it is a significant source of benzene exposure among GCS participants.

The association between dietary acid load and odds of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A case-control study

Background: Data on the association between dietary acid load and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are scarce and controversial. Aim: This study aimed to assess the association between dietary acid-base loads and odds of NAFLD. Methods: In the current study, 196 cases of NAFLD (proven by a gastroenterologist using Fibroscan) and 803 age-matched controls were enrolled from the same clinic. Dietary intakes of patients with NAFLD and controls without hepatic steatosis were evaluated using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Dietary acid load was estimated using the validated potential renal acid load (PRAL) algorithm. Multivariable logistic regression model was used to estimate the odds of NAFLD across quintiles of PRAL. Results: The mean ± SD age of the study population (43% male) was 43.28 ± 14.02 years. The mean ± SD of PRAL was -1.90 ± 7.12 for all participants. After adjustment for all known confounders, subjects in the third quintile of PRAL (nearly with neutral PRAL) had a 54% lower odds of NAFLD compared with those in the lowest quintiles of the PRAL [(OR: 0.46; 95%CI: 0.24-0.89), (P = 0.021)]. However, the odds of NAFLD in the highest quintiles of PRAL was not different in comparison to the lowest quintiles (OR: 0.90; 95%CI: 0.41-1.57). Conclusion: In conclusion, our results have shown a modest U shaped relationship between PRAL and NAFLD. Further studies with acid-base biomarkers are needed to confirm the role of dietary acid load in the development of NAFLD and its potential mechanisms.

Higher intakes of fiber, total vegetables, and fruits may attenuate the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality: findings from a large prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Although studies have reported an inverse association between fruits, vegetables, and fiber consumption and all-cause and cause-specific mortality, the issue remains incompletely defined in the Middle Eastern population.

AIMS

The current study aimed to investigate the association between dietary fiber, fruit, and vegetable intake and all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

METHODS

A total of 48632 participants (mean age = 52years), 57.5% (n = 27974) women and 42.5% (n = 20658) men, were recruited from an ongoing large-scale prospective cohort study (the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS)), in the north of Iran. Using a validated semi-quantitative 116-item food questionnaire, dietary intakes were collected. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality were reported.

RESULTS

After approximately 14 years of follow-up, 10,774 deaths were recorded. In the fully adjusted model, compared to those in the lowest quintile of intake, those in the second and third quintiles of dietary fiber intake had a 7%-10% reduction in risk of all-cause mortality, and a 15%-17% reduction in the risk of mortality from other causes. Increasing consumption of fruits was also associated with a decreased risk of mortality for all-cause mortality by 9%-11%, and all cancer by 15-20%. Further, those in the third and fourth quintiles of vegetables intake had 11%-12% lower risk for CVD mortality.

DISCUSSION

The results from the GCS further support the current recommendations on following a healthy diet containing proper amounts of fiber, vegetables, and fruits, as health-protective dietary items.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher intake of dietary fiber, fruits, and vegetables has the potential to reduce both overall and cause-specific mortality rates. However, additional cohort studies with larger sample size and long-term follow-up durations are required to establish these findings.

Population attributable proportion and number of cancer cases attributed to potentially modifiable risk factors in Iran in 2020

In the current study, we aimed to calculate the fraction of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Iran in 2020. Population attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated for established cancer risk factors using three data sources: the national cancer incidence reports, relative risks extracted from global and national meta-analyses, and exposure prevalence from national/subnational population-based surveys. In addition to overall cancers, the PAFs were estimated separately for each cancer site among men and women. Overall, 32.6% of cancers in 2020 in Iran were attributable to known risk factors. The PAF in men (40.2%) was twice as high as in women (21.1%). Cigarette smoking (15.4%), being overweight (5.0%), opium use (3.9%) and H. pylori infection (3.8%) were the leading causes of cancers. For men, the highest PAFs belonged to cigarette smoking (26.3%), opium use (6.8%) and being overweight (3.1%), while for women, the highest PAFs belonged to being overweight (7.2%), H. pylori infection (2.7%) and cigarette smoking (2.7%). Among Iranian men and women, the PAFs of waterpipe smoking were 2% and 0.9%, respectively. A third of incident cancers in Iran are due to modifiable exposures, mainly cigarette smoking, being overweight, and H. pylori infection. Opium consumption and waterpipe smoking collectively accounted for 8.8% of cancer occurrence in men and 1.3% in women in Iran. These emerging risk factors should be taken into consideration in future PAF studies.

Association Between Incident Type 2 Diabetes and Opium Use: Mediation by Body Mass and Adiposity

Opiates can affect glucose metabolism and obesity, but no large prospective study (to our knowledge) has investigated the association between long-term opium use, body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2), and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We analyzed prospective data from 50,045 Golestan Cohort Study participants in Iran (enrollment: 2004-2008). After excluding participants with preexisting diseases, including diabetes, we used adjusted Poisson regression models to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for T2DM in opium users compared with nonusers, using mediation analysis to assess the BMI-mediated association of opium use with incident T2DM. Of 40,083 included participants (mean age = 51.4 (standard deviation, 8.8) years; 56% female), 16% were opium users (median duration of use, 10 (interquartile range), 4-20) years). During follow-up (until January 2020), 5,342 incident T2DM cases were recorded, including 8.5% of opium users and 14.2% of nonusers. Opium use was associated with an overall decrease in incident T2DM (IRR = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.92), with a significant dose-response association. Most (84.3%) of this association was mediated by low BMI or waist circumference, and opium use did not have a direct association with incident T2DM (IRR = 0.97, 95% CI: 0.87, 1.08). Long-term opium use was associated with lower incidence of T2DM, which was mediated by low body mass and adiposity.

A Single nucleotide polymorphism in the ALDH2 gene modifies the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in BRCA2 p.K3326* carriers

Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) has a very high incidence rate in northeastern Iran. Our team previously reported the BReast CAncer gene 2 (BRCA2) p.K3326* mutation as a moderately penetrant ESCC susceptibility variant in northern Iran (odds ratio (OR) = 3.64, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.74-7.59, P = 0.0003). Recently, it has been reported that aldehydes can induce BRCA2 haploinsufficiency in cells with a heterozygous pathogenic BRCA2 mutation and predispose them to carcinogenic effects. Based on this observation, we speculate that dysfunctional variants in Aldehyde Dehydrogenase 2 Family Member (ALDH2) may result in aldehyde-induced BRCA2 haploinsufficiency and increase cancer risk in BRCA2 mutation carriers. In support of this hypothesis, our team recently reported the breast cancer risk modifying effect of an ALDH2 common polymorphism, rs10744777, among Polish carriers of the BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation. In the current case-control study, we aimed to investigate the ESCC risk modifying effect of this ALDH2 polymorphism among BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation carriers. We assessed the interaction between the ALDH2 rs10744777 polymorphism and BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation in ESCC risk by genotyping this ALDH2 variant in the germline DNA of 746 ESCC cases and 1,373 controls from northern Iran who were previously genotyped for the BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation. Among a total of 464 individuals with TT genotype of the ALDH2 rs10744777 polymorphism, which is associated with lower ALDH2 expression, we found 9 of 164 cases versus 3 of 300 controls who carried the BRCA2 p.K3326* variant (OR = 5.66, 95% CI = 1.22-26.2, P = 0.018). This finding supports our hypothesis that the ALDH2-rs10744777 TT genotype may be a significant risk modifier of ESCC in individuals with a BRCA2 p.K3326* mutation.

Liver fibrosis in pars cohort study: A large-scale study on the prevalence and correlated factors

BACKGROUNDS AND STUDY AIMS

The fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) is a non-invasive scoring system for estimating liver fibrosis severity as a biomarker of chronic liver disease. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and severity of chronic liver disease at the community level using FIB-4.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted using the Pars Cohort database collected in Valashar, Fars province, Iran. Participants were divided into three groups based on their FIB-4 scores: low risk of liver fibrosis (FIB < 1.45), intermediate cases (1.45 ≤ FIB-4 ≤ 3.25), and high risk of liver fibrosis (FIB-4 > 3.25).

RESULTS

In total, 9269 individuals with a mean age of 52.65 years were enrolled in the study, of which 4278 (46.2 %) were male. Among all participants, 7853 (84.7 %) were in the low-risk, and 65 (0.7 %) were in the high-risk groups. In the final ordinal regression model, male gender, being a farmer or rancher, living in rural areas, history of opioid use, history of jaundice, no history of diabetes, history of depression, and positive HBs Ag were independently associated with higher FIB-4 scores.

CONCLUSION

Our study revealed that males, individuals residing in rural areas, and those engaged in farming and ranching occupations face a heightened risk of liver fibrosis. These findings emphasize the need for future programs for early detection and effective management of liver fibrosis in these at-risk populations.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality

BACKGROUND

Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking.

METHODS

We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6).

CONCLUSIONS

Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Incident cancers attributable to using opium and smoking cigarettes in the Golestan cohort study

Background

Opium consumption has recently been identified as a carcinogen, but the impact of opium use on cancer burden is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the fraction of cancers that could be attributed to opium use alone and in combination with cigarette smoking in a region where opium is widely used.

Methods

50,045 Iranian adults were recruited to this prospective cohort study between 2004 and 2008 and were followed through January 2022. We assessed the association between using opium and/or cigarette smoking and various cancers using proportional hazards regression models. We then calculated population attributable fractions (PAFs) for all cancers and for groups of cancers causally linked to opium and cigarette smoking.

Findings

Of the total participants, 8% only used opium, 8.3% only smoked cigarettes, and 9% used both substances. During a median 14 years of follow-up, 2195 individuals were diagnosed with cancer, including 215 opium-related cancers (lung, larynx, and bladder) and 1609 tobacco-related cancers (20 types). Opium use alone was estimated to cause 35% (95% CI: 26%-45%) of opium-related cancers, while smoking cigarettes alone was estimated to cause 9% (6%-12%) of tobacco-related cancers in this population. Using opium and/or cigarettes was estimated to cause 13% (9%-16%) of all cancers, 58% (49%-66%) of opium-related cancers, and 15% (11%-18%) of tobacco-related cancers. Moreover, joint exposure to opium and cigarettes had the greatest impact on cancers of the larynx, pharynx, lung, and bladder, with PAFs ranging from 50% to 77%.

Interpretation

Using opium and smoking cigarettes account for a large proportion of cancers in this population. To reduce the cancer burden, prevention policies should aim to decrease the use of both substances through public awareness campaigns and interventional efforts.

Funding

The Golestan Cohort Study work was funded by the Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Cancer Research UK, U.S. National Cancer Institute, International Agency for Research on Cancer. The presented analysis was supported by the International HundredK+ Cohorts Consortium (IHCC).

Global prevalence, cascade of care, and prophylaxis coverage of hepatitis B in 2022: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

The 2016 World Health Assembly endorsed the elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection as a public health threat by 2030; existing therapies and prophylaxis measures make such elimination feasible, even in the absence of a virological cure. We aimed to estimate the national, regional, and global prevalence of HBV in the general population and among children aged 5 years and younger, as well as the rates of diagnosis, treatment, prophylaxis, and the future burden globally.

METHODS

In this modelling study, we used a Delphi process with data from literature reviews and interviews with country experts to quantify the prevalence, diagnosis, treatment, and prevention measures for HBV infection. The PRoGReSs Model, a dynamic Markov model, was used to estimate the country, regional, and global prevalence of HBV infection in 2022, and the effects of treatment and prevention on disease burden. The future incidence of morbidity and mortality in the absence of additional interventions was also estimated at the global level.

FINDINGS

We developed models for 170 countries which resulted in an estimated global prevalence of HBV infection in 2022 of 3·2% (95% uncertainty interval 2·7-4·0), corresponding to 257·5 million (216·6-316·4) individuals positive for HBsAg. Of these individuals, 36·0 million were diagnosed, and only 6·8 million of the estimated 83·3 million eligible for treatment were on treatment. The prevalence among children aged 5 years or younger was estimated to be 0·7% (0·6-1·0), corresponding to 5·6 million (4·5-7·8) children with HBV infection. Based on the most recent data, 85% of infants received three-dose HBV vaccination before 1 year of age, 46% had received a timely birth dose of vaccine, and 14% received hepatitis B immunoglobulin along with the full vaccination regimen. 3% of mothers with a high HBV viral load received antiviral treatment to reduce mother-to-child transmission.

INTERPRETATION

As 2030 approaches, the elimination targets remain out of reach for many countries under the current frameworks. Although prevention measures have had the most success, there is a need to increase these efforts and to increase diagnosis and treatment to work towards the elimination goals.

FUNDING

John C Martin Foundation, Gilead Sciences, and EndHep2030.

Diet Quality and Subsequent Incidence of Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers: Results from the Golestan Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Recent evidence suggests overall diet quality, as assessed by dietary scores, may play a role in the development of upper gastrointestinal (UGI) cancers. However, the existing dietary scores are derived from high-income countries with different dietary habits than regions with the highest burden of UGI cancers, where limited data is available. This study aimed to investigate the association between overall diet quality and risk of esophageal and stomach cancers in a high-risk region for UGI cancers.

METHODS

We recruited 50045 individuals aged 40-75 between 2004-2008 from northeastern Iran and followed them annually through July 2020. Data on demographics, diet, and various exposures were collected using validated questionnaires. Diet quality was assessed by calculating the Healthy Eating Index (HEI), Alternative Healthy Eating Index (AHEI), Alternative Mediterranean Diet (AMED), Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH), and World Cancer Research Fund-American Institute for Cancer Research (WCRF-AICR) scores.

RESULTS

During an average 12 years of follow-up, 359 participants developed esophageal cancer and 358 developed stomach cancer. After adjustments, each standard deviation increase in baseline dietary scores was associated with up to 12% reduction in esophageal cancer risk and up to 17% reduction in stomach cancer risk. Esophageal cancer showed stronger inverse associations with adherence to AMED (HRQ4-vs-Q1=0.69 (0.49-0.98), P-trend=0.038). Stomach cancer showed stronger inverse correlation with WCRF-AICR (HRQ4-vs-Q1=0.58 (0.41-0.83), P-trend=0.004), and DASH (HRC4-vs-C1=0.72 (0.54-0.96), P-trend=0.041). These associations were comparable across different population subgroups. We did not observe significant associations between HEI and AHEI scores and UGI cancers in this population.

CONCLUSION

Despite the differences in consuming individual food groups, adherence to the available dietary recommendations (derived from high-income countries) was associated with lower risk for subsequent esophageal and gastric cancers in this high-risk population. Educating the public to have a healthy eating pattern might be an effective strategy towards prevention of UGI cancers in high-risk regions.

Association between dietary glycemic index and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

Objective

Managing dietary glycemic index (GI) deserves further attention in the interplay between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study aimed to evaluate the relationship between dietary GI and the odds of NAFLD in patients with T2DM.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out between April 2021 and February 2022, including 200 participants with T2DM aged 18-70 years, of which 133 had NAFLD and 67 were in the non-NAFLD group. Cardiometabolic parameters were analyzed using standard biochemical kits and dietary intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was applied to explore odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for NAFLD according to tertiles of dietary GI.

Results

Highest vs. lowest tertile (< 57 vs. > 60.89) of energy-adjusted GI was not associated with the odds of having NAFLD (OR 1.25, 95% CI = 0.6-2.57; P-trend = 0.54) in the crude model. However, there was an OR of 3.24 (95% CI = 1.03-10.15) accompanied by a significant trend (P-trend = 0.04) after full control for potential confounders (age, gender, smoking status, duration of diabetes, physical activity, waist circumference, HbA1c, triglycerides, total cholesterol, dietary intake of total carbohydrates, simple carbohydrates, fat, and protein).

Conclusion

High dietary GI is associated with increased odds of NAFLD in subjects with T2DM. However, interventional and longitudinal cohort studies are required to confirm these findings.

Validity and reproducibility of a food frequency questionnaire assessing food group intake in the PERSIAN Cohort Study

Purpose

A semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was developed for use in the Prospective Epidemiological Research Studies in IrAN (PERSIAN Cohort), investigating non-communicable disease risk factors. This study aimed to assess the validity and reproducibility of this FFQ, through food group intake.

Methods

Participants, recruited from seven PERSIAN cohort centers, completed the FFQ at the beginning of the study (FFQ1) and at the end (FFQ2), with a 12-month interval in between, during which two 24-h dietary recalls (24 h) were completed each month. Correlation coefficients of the median intake of food groups recorded by the FFQs were compared to those of the 24 h to assess validity, and the two FFQs were compared to assess reproducibility of findings.

Results

Overall, data from 978 participants were included in this validation analysis. Of the 26 food groups assessed, Tea, Sugars, Whole/Refined Grains, and Solid Fats/Oils, had the strongest correlations (0.6-0.79), while Red Meat, Chicken and Eggs showed moderate correlations (0.42-0.59). The weakest correlations observed belonged to Fresh fruit Juice and Other Meats (0.23-0.32). Reproducibility was assessed among those who completed both FFQ1 and FFQ2 (n = 848), revealing moderate to strong correlations in all food groups, ranging from 0.42 in Legumes to 0.72 in both Sugar and Sweetened Drinks.

Conclusion

The PERSIAN Cohort FFQ is appropriate to rank individuals based on food group intake.

PERSIAN Eye Cohort Study (PECS): Design, Methodology

BACKGROUND

To report the study protocol, methodology and latest enrollment data of a large epidemiological multi-central eye cohort named PERSIAN Eye Cohort Study (PECS), originating from the ongoing PERSIAN Cohort Study, to investigate the distribution of ophthalmic disorders in different regions and ethnicities of Iran, and determine their associations with various exposures of ophthalmic and non-ophthalmic nature.

METHODS

A central committee designed the study and equipped six chosen centers (Khameneh, Some'e Sara, Hoveizeh, Yazd, Rafsanjan and Zahedan). A focal point in each center conducted the study under close supervision of the central committee.

RESULTS

This ongoing study was launched in 2014. Out of 65,580 eligible participants of the PERSIAN Cohort, 48,618 individuals aged 35-70 have been enrolled in the PECS (response rate: 74.13%) until June 2021. Slit lamp and fundus photography were performed for 28,702 (59.03%) and 27,437 (56.43%) individuals, respectively.

CONCLUSION

This large epidemiological multi-central eye cohort can improve our epidemiological knowledge of the prevalent ophthalmic disorders in different regions and ethnicities of Iran, and determine their associations with various exposures of ophthalmic and non-ophthalmic nature. This will be very useful for future planned nationwide and global interventions.

Polypill protects MAFLD patients from cardiovascular events and mortality: a prospective trial

BACKGROUND

Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is a novel term that distinguishes patients at risk of adverse clinical outcomes with higher accuracy than those with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Cardiovascular mortality is the leading cause of death in MAFLD. The current literature lacks large-scale prospective studies that address preventive approaches for cardiovascular health in MAFLD. We investigated whether MAFLD patients benefit from a fixed-dose combination therapy (Aspirin, hydrochlorothiazide, atorvastatin, valsartan), known as a Polypill.

METHODS

Analysis was performed (stratified based on MAFLD status) of a clinical trial that included 1596 individuals randomly allocated to an intervention (polypill) or a control (usual care) group. Patients were followed up for five years for any adverse drug reaction, major cardiovascular events, and mortality. Univariable and multivariable survival analyses were performed, and the interaction level was assessed by R programming.

RESULTS

Patients who consumed the polypill had significantly lower hazard ratios of major cardiovascular events incidence (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.41-0.78) and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.41, 95% CI 0.2-0.86) compared to the control group. Polypill showed significantly better results in lowering cardiovascular events in MAFLD patients than in the general population. (p-value for interaction: 0.028). Moreover, comparing those patients who had high adherence to the Polypill, with the control group, further enhanced the results.

CONCLUSIONS

Major cardiovascular events are prevented in MAFLD patients who consume the Polypill. MAFLD patients benefit from the Polypill more than the general population.

Sex and smoking differences in the association between gastroesophageal reflux and risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-incidence area: Golestan Cohort Study

Prior studies have conflicting findings regarding the association between gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We examined this relationship in a prospective cohort in a region of high ESCC incidence. Baseline exposure data were collected from 50 045 individuals using in-person interviews at the time of cohort entry. Participants were followed until they developed cancer, died, or were lost to follow up. Participants with GERD symptoms were categorized into any GERD (heartburn or regurgitation), mixed symptoms, or heartburn alone. Multivariable Cox regression was used to assess the relationship between GERD symptom group and histologically confirmed ESCC. The model was adjusted for known risk factors for GERD and ESCC. 49 559 individuals were included in this study, of which 9005 had GERD symptoms. Over 13.0 years of median follow up, 290 individuals were diagnosed with ESCC. We found no association between any GERD and risk of ESCC (aHR 0.90, 95% CI: 0.66-1.24, P = .54). Similar findings were observed for the GERD symptom subtypes. Significant interactions between any GERD and sex (P = .013) as well as tobacco smoking (P = .028) were observed. In post-hoc analyses, GERD was associated with a decreased risk of ESCC in men (aHR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.27-0.98 P = .04) and in smokers (aHR 0.26, 95% CI: 0.08-0.83 P = .02). While there was little evidence for an overall association between GERD symptoms and ESCC risk, significant interactions with sex and smoking were observed. Men and smokers with GERD symptoms had a lower risk of ESCC development.

Prevalence and Correlates of Polypharmacy, and Drug Utilization Pattern in a Semi-urban Population: Results from the Pars Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Although polypharmacy is considered a major predictor of irrational use of drugs, little is known about polypharmacy in developing regions. We aimed to indicate the prevalence and correlates of polypharmacy and to determine the medication profile at the population level in southern Iran.

METHODS

In this cross-sectional study, we analyzed data from participants of the Pars Cohort Study (PCS) (aged above 40 years, N=9269). Polypharmacy was defined as using five or more medications concurrently. A Poisson multivariable model was applied to estimate the adjusted prevalence ratios (APRs) of various risk factors. The Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification system was used for classifying medications.

RESULTS

Prevalence of polypharmacy was 10.4%, (95% CI: 9.75; 11.08) and it was higher among females (15.0%), older adults (age≥65 years) (16.0%), and individuals with more than two chronic conditions (31%). Being female, educated, married, and not having a low socio-economic class were independently associated with a higher likelihood of polypharmacy. The most prevalent medications among female participants were sex hormones and modulators of the genital system (58.4%), drugs for acid-related disorders (14.6%), and anti-anemic preparations (13.6%,). On the other hand, males were using acid-related disorders (14.6%), anti-inflammatory and anti-rheumatic products (7.8%), and beta-blocking agents (6.3%).

CONCLUSION

The prevalence of polypharmacy in our sample was relatively low, especially among males. Cardiovascular drugs, acid suppressants, hormonal contraceptives, and anti-anemic preparations are drug classes with the highest contribution to polypharmacy.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Dietary Advanced Glycation End Products and Risk of Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality: Results from the Golestan Cohort Study

Controversy exists regarding the association of dietary advanced glycation end products (dAGEs) with the risk of disease outcomes and mortality. We aimed to examine, prospectively, the association between dAGEs intake and the risk of overall and cause-specific mortality in the Golestan Cohort Study. The cohort was conducted between 2004 and 2008 in Golestan Province (Iran) recruiting 50,045 participants aged 40-75 years. Assessment of dietary intake over the last year was performed at baseline using a 116-item food frequency questionnaire. The dAGEs values for each individual were calculated based on published databases of AGE values of various food items. The main outcome was overall mortality at the time of follow-up (13.5 years). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall and cause-specific mortality were estimated according to the dAGEs quintiles. During 656, 532 person-years of follow-up, 5406 deaths in men and 4722 deaths in women were reported. Participants at the highest quintile of dAGE had a lower risk of overall mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.95), CVD mortality (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.95), and death from other causes (HR: 0.89, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.95) compared to those in the first quintile after adjusting for confounders. We found no association of dAGEs with risk of mortality from cancer (all), respiratory and infectious diseases, and injuries. Our findings do not confirm a positive association between dAGEs and the risk of mortality in Iranian adults. There is still no agreement among studies investigating dAGEs and their health-related aspects. So, further high-quality studies are required to clarify this association.

Opium use and risk of lung cancer: A multicenter case-control study in Iran

Opium use was recently classified as a human carcinogen for lung cancer by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. We conducted a large, multicenter case-control study evaluating the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. We recruited 627 cases and 3477 controls from May 2017 to July 2020. We used unconditional logistic regression analyses to estimate the odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) and measured the association between opium use and the risk of lung cancer. The ORs were adjusted for the residential place, age, gender, socioeconomic status, cigarettes, and water pipe smoking. We found a 3.6-fold risk of lung cancer for regular opium users compared to never users (95% CI: 2.9, 4.6). There was a strong dose-response association between a cumulative count of opium use and lung cancer risk. The OR for regular opium use was higher for small cell carcinoma than in other histology (8.3, 95% CI: 4.8, 14.4). The OR of developing lung cancer among opium users was higher in females (7.4, 95% CI: 3.8, 14.5) than in males (3.3, 95% CI: 2.6, 4.2). The OR for users of both opium and tobacco was 13.4 (95% CI: 10.2, 17.7) compared to nonusers of anything. The risk of developing lung cancer is higher in regular opium users, and these results strengthen the conclusions on the carcinogenicity of opium. The association is stronger for small cell carcinoma cases than in other histology.

The Association between DASH Diet Adherence and Cardiovascular Risk Factors

Background

The dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) encourages high fruit, vegetable, and lean protein consumption and low salt, red meat, and fat intake to prevent or treat hypertension. However, besides hypertension, adherence to this diet has been shown to decrease other cardiovascular risk factors.

Methods

This study assessed the relationship between the DASH diet and cardiovascular risk factors in a cross-sectional study of 2,831 adults chosen by multistage cluster sampling from 27 counties of Khuzestan province, Iran. DASH scores were calculated using data obtained from a qualitative food frequency questionnaire. Regression models were used to evaluate the association of DASH scores and common cardiovascular risk factors.

Results

Significant trends were observed across quintiles of DASH scores for systolic blood pressure, fasting blood sugar, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and its components (p < 0·05). After adjusting for potential confounders such as sex, age, ethnicity, residence, wealth score, physical activity, energy intake, and family history of heart disease, the multiple regression analysis for each cardiovascular risk factor revealed that being in the highest quintile of total DASH score (OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.52-0.99) was negatively associated with hyperglycemia.

Conclusions

This study showed a positive relationship between DASH diet adherence and lower serum levels of glucose, triglycerides, and cholesterol. Prospective studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Comparing the risk of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality in four lifestyles with a combination of high/low physical activity and healthy/unhealthy diet: a prospective cohort study

Background

In this study, we assessed the risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in subjects having an only physical activity or a healthy diet or both compared to those having none of these healthy behaviors in the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS).

Methods

A total of 50,045 participants aged ≥ 40 years were recruited from Golestan Province, Iran, from 2004 to 2008 and followed for a median of 13.9 years. Four lifestyles were compared: healthy diet and active (HDA), healthy diet but inactive (HDI), unhealthy diet but active (UDA), and unhealthy diet and inactive (UDI), with UDI being considered as the reference group. Diet quality was assessed by the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension diet score, which was calculated based on a validated food frequency questionnaire. The primary outcomes were death from any cause and CVDs. Adjusted Cox models were used to estimate the hazards ratio (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for overall and CVDs mortality.

Results

During 467,401 person-years of follow-up, 6,256 overall deaths and 2,043 confirmed CVDs deaths were reported. After adjustment for potential confounders, there was a significant lower risk for all-cause mortality in participants with both healthy behaviors (HR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.73 to 0.86) or only one healthy behavior [HDI: HR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.78 to 0.90)] and [UDI: HR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.85 to 0.97] compared to those with both unhealthy behaviors. For CVDs mortality, the HDA lifestyle (HR = 0.74, 95%CI = 0.65 to 0.86), as well as the UDA lifestyle (HR = 0.83, 95%CI = 0.74 to 0.94) indicated a significant lower risk compared to the UDI lifestyle. The HDI lifestyle was not more effective than UDI.

Conclusion

The greatest reduction in all-cause and CVDs mortality was related to the HDA. For all-cause mortality, both HDI and UDA lifestyles were associated with a decreased risk in comparison to UDI, but for CVDs mortality, only UDA but not HDI decreased the risk.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12966-022-01374-1.

Dietary total antioxidant capacity is inversely associated with the odds of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in people with type-2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

This study was conducted to evaluate possible associations between Dietary Total Antioxidant Capacity (DTAC) and odds of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in people with type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We recruited two hundred people with T2DM, and evaluated their liver steatosis using Fibroscan. Dietary intakes of participants were assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. DTAC was computed via ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP).

RESULTS

In the crude model, no statistically significant association was found between DTAC and the odds of NAFLD in people with diabetes. However, after adjustment for potential confounders including age, gender, diabetes duration, smoking status, physical activity, BMI, waist circumference, and energy, the most reduced adjusted OR was indicated for the third tertile vs. the first one (OR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.09-0.81, P = 0.02), meaning that diabetic patients in the third tertile of DTAC had 72% decreased risk of NAFLD in comparison to those in the first one. The relationship was remained significant after additional adjustment for HOMA-IR, HbA1c, serum Triglyceride (TG), and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL) levels (OR: 0.29, 95% CI: 0.09-0.93, P = 0.03). Importantly, a dose-response pattern was demonstrated for DTAC and risk of NAFLD (P = 0.04).

CONCLUSION

Higher DTAC was related with a decreased risk of NAFLD in individuals with diabetes.

Pancreatic Cancer in Iran - Result of the Iranian National Cancer Registry Program

OBJECTIVE

In this article, we aimed to report the incidence rate of PC at the national and regional levels of Iran from 2014 to 2017 for the first time based on the IARC protocols.

METHODS

The data was recruited from the Iranian national program of cancer registry, a national cancer registry program reformed in 2014 after including cancer diagnosis based on clinical judgment and death certificates. This registry includes data from the pathology laboratories and clinical sectors included with death certificates from 60 medical universities in 31 provinces of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates were calculated at the national and regional levels.

RESULTS

From 2014 to 2017, 8851 new cases (males=60.46%) were diagnosed, with a mean age of 66.2 ± 19.6. Forty-one percent of the patients were diagnosed by microscopic verification, and 51% were diagnosed based on clinical judgment without microscopic verification and death certificates. The age-standardized incidence rate was measured as 3.45 per 100,000 in 2017, with the highest rates in individuals older than 85 (30.91 per 100,000), and the provinces of Qom, Tehran, and Isfahan recorded the highest incidence rates with 3.87, 3.85, and 3.66 per 100,000 respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PC incidence in Iran is still lower than in western countries. However, the incidence from 2014 to 2017 is higher than previous national and regional reports and should not be overlooked. Improvement in the national cancer registry program and documentation may be reasons for this difference.

Urinary nitrate and sodium in a high-risk area for upper gastrointestinal cancers: Golestan Cohort Study☆

BACKGROUND

The epidemiological evidence regarding the carcinogenicity of nitrate and sodium in drinking water is limited, partly because measuring the exposure at the individual level is complex. Most studies have used nitrate in water supplies as a proxy for individual exposure, but dietary intakes and other factors may contribute to the exposure. The present study investigates the factors associated with urinary nitrate and sodium in a high-risk area for esophageal and gastric cancers.

METHODS

For this cross-sectional study, we used data and samples collected in 2004-2008 during the enrollment phase of the Golestan Cohort Study from a random sample of 349 participants (300 individuals from 24 rural villages and 49 from the city of Gonbad), stratified by average water nitrate in their district, the source of drinking water, and the usual dietary intake of nitrate and sodium. Nitrate, sodium, and creatinine were measured in a spot urine sample collected at the time of interview. We used the provincial cancer registry data to calculate the cumulative incidence rates of esophageal and gastric cancers for each location through June 1, 2020, and used weighted partial Pearson correlation to compare the incidence rates with median urinary nitrate and sodium in each village or the city.

RESULTS

Among 349 participants (mean age±SD: 50.7 ± 8.6 years), about half (n = 170) used groundwater for drinking, and the use of groundwater was significantly more common in high-elevation locations (75.8%). The geometric mean of the creatinine-corrected urinary nitrate concentration was 68.3 mg/g cr (95%CI: 64.6,72.3), and the corresponding geometric mean for urinary sodium was 150.0 mmoL/g cr (95%CI: 139.6,161.1). After adjusting for confounders, urinary nitrate was associated with being a woman, drinking groundwater, and living in high-elevation locations, but not with estimated dietary intake. Urinary sodium concentration was significantly associated with monthly precipitation at the time of sampling but not with elevation or drinking water source. There were significant positive correlations between both median urinary nitrate and sodium in each location and esophageal cancer incidence rates adjusted for sex and age (r = 0.65 and r = 0.58, respectively, p < 0.01), but not with gastric cancer incidence.

CONCLUSION

In a rural population at high risk for esophageal and gastric cancers, nitrate excretion was associated with living at a higher elevation and using groundwater for drinking. The associations between nitrate and sodium excretion with esophageal cancer incidence warrant future investigation.

Association between physical activity and serum liver aminotransferases in Southwestern Iran: A Cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

The main aim of the present study is to investigate the independent association objectively measured level of physical activity (PA) and serum concentration of liver aminotransferases (alanine aminotransferase [ALT] and aspartate aminotransferase [AST]) among seemingly healthy individuals.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The current secondary study was conducted in the framework of Khuzestan Comprehensive Health Study, a large population-based multicentric cross-sectional study, conducted between 2016 and 2019 on 18,966 individuals living in Khuzestan province, southwestern Iran. International PA Questionnaire was used for evaluating PA levels, and participants were divided into three groups: low, moderate, and high PA, and ALT and AST were compared between these groups.

RESULTS

The mean ± standard deviation age of participants was 38.65 ± 11.40 years. The majority of participants were female (71%). The mean concentration of ALT in total sample was 18.22 ± 13.06 (male: 23.65 ± 16.26 and female: 15.57 ± 10.06), while the mean concentration of ALT in total sample was 19.61 ± 8.40 (male: 22.44 ± 10.03 and female: 18.23 ± 7.08). A statistically significant inverse correlation was found between AST (r = -0.08, P = 0.02) and ALT (r = -0.038, P < 0.001) with total PA score. The mean concentration of ALT was 19.96 ± 13.63 in people with low PA, 17.62 ± 12.31 with moderate PA, and 18.12 ± 13.47 with high PA (P < 0.001). The mean concentration of AST in total sample was 20.37 ± 8.85 in people with low PA, 19.21 ± 8.83 with moderate PA, and 19.75 ± 8.85 with high PA (P < 0.001). The difference between people in different levels of PA in terms of mean concentration of AST was remained significant (P = 0.003); however, the difference for ALT was not remained significant after adjusting potential confounders.

CONCLUSION

The current study based on large sample showed that PA had a statistically negative association with the concentration of liver aminotransferases in the seemingly healthy individuals; however, the observed associations were weak. People in the lowest levels of PA had the highest levels of ALT and AST.

Population-based pattern of medication use and prevalence of polypharmacy among patients with cardiovascular diseases: results of the Pars cohort study from Iran

Background

Polypharmacy in patients with cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) has been linked to several adverse outcomes. This study aimed to investigate the pattern of medication use and prevalence of polypharmacy among CVDs patients in Iran.

Method

We used the baseline data of the Pars cohort study (PCS). The participants were asked to bring their medication bags; then, the medications were classified using the Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical classification. Polypharmacy was defined as using five or more medications concurrently. Poisson regression modeling was applied. The adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated.

Results

Totally, 9262 participants were enrolled in the PCS, of whom 961 had CVDs. The prevalence of polypharmacy in participants with and without CVDs was 38.9% and 7.1%, respectively. The highest prevalence of polypharmacy (51.5%) was among obese patients. Abnormal waist-hip ratio (PR: 2.79; 95% CI 1.57–4.94), high socioeconomic status (PR: 1.65; 95% CI 1.07–2.54), tobacco-smoking (PR: 1.35; 95% CI 1.00–1.81), patients with more than three co-morbidities (PR: 1.41; 95% CI 1.30–1.53), high physical activity (PR: 0.66; 95% CI 0.45–0.95), use of opiate ever (PR: 0.46; 95% CI 0.26–0.82), and healthy overweight subjects (PR: 0.22; 95% CI 0.12–0.39) were associated with polypharmacy. Cardiovascular drugs (76.1%), drugs acting on blood and blood-forming organs (50.4%), and alimentary tract and metabolism drugs (33.9%) were the most frequently used drugs. Agents acting on the renin-angiotensin system were the mostly used cardiovascular system drugs among men and those above 60 years old, while beta-blocking agents were mostly prevalent among cardiovascular system drugs in women with CVDs.

Conclusion

Given the high prevalence of polypharmacy among CVDs patients, and subsequent complications, programs to educate both physicians and patients to prevent this issue is crucial.

Meat consumption and risk of esophageal and gastric cancer in the Golestan Cohort Study, Iran

Red meat and processed meat are associated with some gastrointestinal cancers. Our study aims to investigate the association of different meat types with esophageal and gastric cancer (EC, GC) in a high-risk population. The Golestan Cohort Study (GCS) is a population-based cohort of 50 045 individuals aged 40 to 75 from northeast Iran. Detailed data on different exposures were collected using validated questionnaires. We considered quintiles of meat consumption, using grams and density (g/1000 kcal/day). We calculated intake of red, processed, organ and white meat, as well as total red meat, including the first three. We used proportional hazards regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between meat types and cancer. During 12 years of follow-up, out of 49 585 participants (57.4% women), 369 developed EC (48.2% women) and 368 developed GC (27.5% women), including 309 esophageal squamous cell, 20 esophageal adenocarcinomas, 216 cardia and 95 non-cardia GC. No association was found for EC except for red meat among females (HR for one quintile increase 1.13, 95% CI = 1.00-1.27). The risk of GC increased for intake of total red meat (HR 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.17) and red meat separately (HR 1.09, 95% CI = 1.00-1.18). The HR for red meat and non-cardia GC was 1.23 (95% CI = 1.02-1.48). No associations were observed for other types of meat. In conclusion, in this high-risk population red meat intake is associated with GC, but not EC, suggesting a substantial role of this modifiable factor in determining the burden of GC.

Associations between exploratory dietary patterns and incident type 2 diabetes: a federated meta-analysis of individual participant data from 25 cohort studies

PURPOSE

In several studies, exploratory dietary patterns (DP), derived by principal component analysis, were inversely or positively associated with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, findings remained study-specific, inconsistent and rarely replicated. This study aimed to investigate the associations between DPs and T2D in multiple cohorts across the world.

METHODS

This federated meta-analysis of individual participant data was based on 25 prospective cohort studies from 5 continents including a total of 390,664 participants with a follow-up for T2D (3.8-25.0 years). After data harmonization across cohorts we evaluated 15 previously identified T2D-related DPs for association with incident T2D estimating pooled incidence rate ratios (IRR) and confidence intervals (CI) by Piecewise Poisson regression and random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

29,386 participants developed T2D during follow-up. Five DPs, characterized by higher intake of red meat, processed meat, French fries and refined grains, were associated with higher incidence of T2D. The strongest association was observed for a DP comprising these food groups besides others (IRR_pooled per 1 SD = 1.104, 95% CI 1.059-1.151). Although heterogeneity was present (I² = 85%), IRR exceeded 1 in 18 of the 20 meta-analyzed studies. Original DPs associated with lower T2D risk were not confirmed. Instead, a healthy DP (HDP1) was associated with higher T2D risk (IRR_pooled per 1 SD = 1.057, 95% CI 1.027-1.088).

CONCLUSION

Our findings from various cohorts revealed positive associations for several DPs, characterized by higher intake of red meat, processed meat, French fries and refined grains, adding to the evidence-base that links DPs to higher T2D risk. However, no inverse DP-T2D associations were confirmed.

Incidence, early case fatality and determinants of stroke in Iran: Golestan Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

While few studies investigated the incidence of stroke in Iran, no Iranian cohort has estimated the standardized-incidence rate and early fatality of first-ever-stroke subtypes along with associated factors.

METHODS

Golestan Cohort Study is a prospective study launched in northeastern Iran in 2004, including 50,045 individuals aged 40-75 at baseline. Age-standardized incidence rate of first-ever-stroke was calculated per 100,000 person-years, according to World Standard Population. The 28-day case fatality was calculated by dividing the number of fatal first-ever-stroke during the first 28 days by total events. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to assess incidence and fatality risk factors. We used Population Attributable Fractions to estimate the incidence and early fatality proportions reduced by ideal risk factor control.

RESULTS

1,135 first-ever-strokes were observed during 8.6 (median) years follow-up. First-ever-stroke standardized incidence rate was estimated 185.2 (95% CI: 173.2-197.2) per 100,000 person-years. The 28-day case fatality was 44.1% (95% CI: 40.4-48.2). Hypertension and pre-stroke physical activity were the strongest risk factors associated with first-ever-stroke incidence (Hazard ratio: 2.83; 2.47-3.23) and 28-day case fatality (Hazard ratio: 0.59; 0.44-0.78), respectively. Remarkably, opium consumption was strongly associated with hemorrhagic stroke incidence (Hazard ratio: 1.52; 1.04-2.23) and ischemic stroke fatality (Hazard ratio: 1.44; 1.01-2.09). Overall, modifiable risk factors contributed to 83% and 61% of first-ever-stroke incidence and early fatality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Efficient risk factor control can considerably reduce stroke occurrence and fatality in our study. Establishing awareness campaigns and 24-hour stroke units seem necessary for improving the stroke management in this area.

Dietary acid load and mortality from all causes, CVD and cancer: results from the Golestan Cohort Study

Given the limited studies and controversial results on association between dietary acid load and mortality from CVD and cancers, we aimed to investigate this association in a large population cohort study in Middle East, with a wide range of dietary acid load. The study was conducted on the platform of the Golestan Cohort Study (GCS), which enrolled 50 045 participants in 2004-2008. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated FFQ. Dietary potential renal acid load (PRAL) score was calculated from nutrient intake. Death and its causes were identified and confirmed by two or three physicians. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard ratio (HR) and 95 % CI for total and cause-specific mortalities. Then, the associations were modelled using restricted cubic splines. PRAL range was -57·36 to +53·81 mEq/d for men and -76·70 to +49·08 for women. During 555 142 person-years of follow-up, we documented 6830 deaths, including 3070 cardiovascular deaths, 1502 cancer deaths and 2258 deaths from other causes. For overall deaths, in final model after adjustment for confounders, participants in the first and fifth quintiles of PRAL had a higher risk of mortality compared with the second quintile of PRAL (HR: 1·08; 95 % CI1·01, 1·16 and HR: 1·07; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·15, respectively); Pfor trend < 0·05). Participants in the first and fifth quintiles of PRAL had a 12 % higher risk of CVD mortality compared with the Q2 of PRAL (HR: 1·12; 95 % CI 1·01-1·25 and HR: 1·12; 95 % CI 1·01, 1·26, respectively; Pfor trend < 0·05). We found that all-cause and CVD mortality rates were higher in the lowest and highest PRAL values, in an approximately U-shaped relation (P-values for the overall association and the non-linear association of energy-adjusted PRAL with total mortality were < 0·001 and < 0·001, and with CVD mortality were 0·008 and 0·003, respectively). Our results highlight unfavourable associations of high acidity and alkalinity of diet with the increased total and CVD mortality risk. It may be important to consider a balanced acid-base diet as a protective strategy to prevent pre-mature death, especially from CVD.