Spatial epidemiology of human anthrax in Son La province, Vietnam, 2003-2022

AIMS

Anthrax is reported with frequency but poorly understood in Southeast Asian countries including Vietnam. In Vietnam, anthrax surveillance is national. However, case detection, prevention, and control are implemented locally at the provincial level. Here, we describe the epidemiological characteristics, identify spatial clusters of human anthrax, and compare the variation in livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease incidence in humans and livestock using historical data in Son La province, Vietnam (2003-2020).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Most human cases occurred between April and September. Most of the patients were male, aged 15-54 years old. The human cases were mainly reported by public district hospitals. There was a delay between disease onset and hospitalization of ~5 days. We identified spatial clusters of high-high incidence communes in the northern communes of the province using the local Moran's I statistic. The vaccine coverage sharply decreased across the study period. The province reported sporadic human anthrax outbreaks, while animal cases were only reported in 2005 and 2022.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest underreporting for human and livestock anthrax in the province. Intersectoral information sharing is needed to aid livestock vaccination planning, which currently relies on reported livestock cases. The spatial clusters identify areas for targeted surveillance and livestock vaccination, while the seasonal case data suggest prioritizing vaccination campaigns for February or early March ahead of the April peak. A regional approach for studying the role of livestock trading between Son La and neighbouring provinces in anthrax occurrence is recommended.

Culicoides Midge Abundance across Years: Modeling Inter-Annual Variation for an Avian Feeder and a Candidate Vector of Hemorrhagic Diseases in Farmed Wildlife

(1) Background: Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) and bluetongue virus (BTV) are orbiviruses that cause hemorrhagic disease (HD) with significant economic and population health impacts on domestic livestock and wildlife. In the United States, white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) are particularly susceptible to these viruses and are a frequent blood meal host for various species of Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) that transmit orbiviruses. The species of Culicoides that transmit EHDV and BTV vary between regions, and larval habitats can differ widely between vector species. Understanding how midges are distributed across landscapes can inform HD virus transmission risk on a local scale, allowing for improved animal management plans to avoid suspected high-risk areas or target these areas for insecticide control. (2) Methods: We used occupancy modeling to estimate the abundance of gravid (egg-laden) and parous (most likely to transmit the virus) females of two putative vector species, C. stellifer and C. venustus, and one species, C. haematopotus, that was not considered a putative vector. We developed a universal model to determine habitat preferences, then mapped a predicted weekly midge abundance during the HD transmission seasons in 2015 (July-October) and 2016 (May-October) in Florida. (3) Results: We found differences in habitat preferences and spatial distribution between the parous and gravid states for C. haematopotus and C. stellifer. Gravid midges preferred areas close to water on the border of well and poorly drained soil. They also preferred mixed bottomland hardwood habitats, whereas parous midges appeared less selective of habitat. (4) Conclusions: If C. stellifer is confirmed as an EHDV vector in this region, the distinct spatial and abundance patterns between species and physiological states suggest that the HD risk is non-random across the study area.

Spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax define high-risk areas requiring intervention in Lao Cai Province, Vietnam 1991-2022

Anthrax, a widespread zoonosis in low and middle-income countries with low disease awareness and insufficient livestock vaccination coverage, has been known in Lao Cai Province in northern Vietnam for years before its apparent absence in 2009, which requires investigation as this infection is frequently reported from neighbouring provinces and countries. We aimed to describe the seasonal patterns of anthrax (1991-2008), compare livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to disease occurrence (1991- 2022), and delineate the high-risk areas to inform local disease surveillance in the province. We illustrated the seasonal pattern of anthrax and provided a comparison between livestock vaccine coverage and disease occurrence by purely spatial SaTScan (Poisson model, 25% population at risk) to detect spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax using population derived from zonal statistics routines. The number of cases, crude cumulative incidence, and spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax were mapped in QGIS. Results indicate peak anthrax incidence from May to October. Buffalo, domestic cattle, and horses accounted for 75% of total animal cases. Horse anthrax was more common in Lao Cai than in its neighbours and often occurred in years with human mortality. Vaccination covered less than 30% of the livestock population. We found an apparent pattern where anthrax was controlled from 1998-2003 with higher vaccine coverage (>20%) and identified spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax in Muong Khuong, Bao Thang, and Bac Ha districts of Lao Cai. The local public health and veterinary agencies are recommended to revisit the high-risk areas and communicate with neighbouring provinces for a regional approach to anthrax surveillance and control.

Spatial analysis of human and livestock anthrax in Lai Chau province, Vietnam (2004-2021)

Anthrax is reported globally with varying disease intensity and seasonality among countries. In Vietnam, anthrax epidemiology and ecology remain understudied. We used historical data of human and livestock anthrax from 2004 to 2021 in Lai Chau province, to identify spatial clusters of human and livestock anthrax, describe epidemiological characteristics, and compare livestock anthrax vaccine coverage to human and livestock disease incidence. Local Moran's I (LISA) using spatial Bayes smoothed commune-level cumulative incidence (per 10,000) for the study period, epidemiological descriptive statistics, livestock vaccine coverage data, and annual incidence rates (per 10,000) at provincial level were used. LISA identified a human anthrax hotspot (high-high) in the southeast which did not overlap spatially with livestock anthrax hotspots in southeastern and northeastern communes. Most human cases were male, aged 15-59 years, handled sick animals, and/or consumed contaminated meat. Almost all cases were reported by grassroot health facilities with a delay of 6.3 days between exposure and case notification to the national surveillance system. 80 % of human cases were reported from June-October. The increase in disease incidence occurred shortly after livestock anthrax vaccine coverage decreased. This study informs vaccination strategy and targeted surveillance and control measures in newly identified high-risk areas and seasons of anthrax.

Blood analytes of clinically normal and diseased neonatal and weaned farmed white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) fawns

Recent research focused on farmed deer has exposed many knowledge gaps regarding health assessment protocols for white-tailed deer (WTD). The objectives of this study were to establish de novo blood analyte reference intervals for farmed WTD fawns at birth (1-2 days of age; n = 84) and again at weaning (76-125 days of age; n = 28), to compare data at birth and at weaning to understand how these analytes are affected by the intrinsic factors age and sex in clinically normal WTD fawns, and to compare between clinically normal and sick WTD weanlings (respiratory disease n = 12; orbivirus-infected n = 6). Reference intervals were established for WTD fawns at birth and weaning. Female WTD neonates had significantly higher red blood cell counts, hematocrit, and hemoglobin compared to males. Most blood analytes were significantly different in clinically normal WTD neonates compared to weanlings, suggesting an effect of age. The observed sex- and age-related variations in WTD highlight the need to establish reference intervals that account for intrinsic factors. The comparison of clinically normal and sick WTD weanlings in this study identified higher MCHC and absolute monocytes in sick weanlings but these findings were presumably not biologically relevant given the small sample size for sick fawns. While the reference interval data presented herein will be useful for the veterinary care of WTD fawns at critical time periods in a high-density farm setting, this study also demonstrates the need to identify more sensitive and specific biomarkers for the assessment of health status in farmed WTD with specific underlying diseases.

The expanding range of emerging tick-borne viruses in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region

We analysed both pooled and individual tick samples collected from four countries in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region, using metagenome-based nanopore sequencing (NS) and targeted amplification. Initially, 1337 ticks, belonging to 11 species, were screened in 217 pools. Viruses (21 taxa) and human pathogens were detected in 46.5% and 7.3%, respectively. Tick-borne viral pathogens comprised Tacheng Tick Virus 2 (TTV2, 5.9%), Jingmen Tick Virus (JMTV, 0.9%) and Tacheng Tick Virus 1 (TTV1, 0.4%). An association of tick species with individual virus taxa was observed, with the exception of TTV2, which was observed in both Dermacentor and Haemaphysalis species. Individual ticks from pools with pathogen detection were then further screened by targeted amplification and then NS, which provided extensive genome data and revealed probable pathogen Haseki Tick Virus (HTV, 10.2%). Two distinct TTV2 clades were observed in phylogenetic analysis, one of which included closely related Dermacentor reticulatus Uukuviruses. JMTV detection indicated integrated virus sequences. Overall, we observed an expansion of newly documented pathogenic tick-borne viruses into Europe, with TTV1 being identified on the continent for the first time. These viruses should be included in the diagnostic assessment of symptomatic cases associated with tick bites and vector surveillance efforts. NS is shown as a useful tool for monitoring tick-associated pathogens in pooled or individual samples.

Spatial and phylogenetic patterns reveal hidden infection sources of Bacillus anthracis in an anthrax outbreak in Son La province, Vietnam

Bacillus anthracis, the bacterial cause of anthrax, is a zoonosis affecting livestock and wildlife often spilling over into humans. In Vietnam, anthrax has been nationally reportable since 2015 with cases occurring annually, mostly in the northern provinces. In April 2022, an outbreak was reported in Son La province following the butchering of a water buffalo, Bubalus bubalis. A total of 137 humans from three villages were likely exposed to contaminated meat from the animal. Early epidemiological investigations suggested a single animal was involved in all exposures. Five B. anthracis isolates were recovered from human clinical cases along with one from the buffalo hide, another from associated maggots, and one from soil at the carcass site. The isolates were whole genome sequenced, allowing global, regional, and local molecular epidemiological analyses of the outbreak strains. All recovered B. anthracis belong to the A.Br.001/002 lineage based on canonical single nucleotide polymorphism analysis (canSNP). Although not previously identified in Vietnam, this lineage has been identified in the nearby countries of China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, as well as Australia. A twenty-five marker multi-locus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA-25) was used to investigate the relationship between human, soil, and buffalo strains. Locally, four MLVA-25 genotypes were identified from the eight isolates. This level of genetic diversity is unusual for the limited geography and timing of cases and differs from past literature using MLVA-25. The coupled spatial and phylogenetic data suggest this outbreak originated from multiple, likely undetected, animal sources. These findings were further supported by local news reports that identified at least two additional buffalo deaths beyond the initial animal sampled in response to the human cases. Future outbreak response should include intensive surveillance for additional animal cases and additional molecular epidemiological traceback to identify pathogen sources.

Genomic and Phylogenetic Analysis of Bacillus cereus Biovar anthracis Isolated from Archival Bone Samples Reveals Earlier Natural History of the Pathogen

(1) Background: Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) was the causative agent of an anthrax-like fatal disease among wild chimpanzees in 2001 in Côte d'Ivoire. Before this, there had not been any description of an anthrax-like disease caused by typically avirulent Bacillus cereus. Genetic analysis found that B. cereus had acquired two anthrax-like plasmids, one a pXO1-like toxin producing plasmid and the other a pXO2-like plasmid encoding capsule. Bcbva caused animal fatalities in Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, and the Central African Republic between 2004 and 2012. (2) Methods: The pathogen had acquired plasmids in the wild and that was discovered as the cause of widespread animal fatalities in the early 2000s. Primate bones had been shipped out of the endemic zone for anthropological studies prior to the realized danger of contamination with Bcbva. Spores were isolated from the bone fragments and positively identified as Bcbva. Strains were characterized by classical microbiological methods and qPCR. Four new Bcbva isolates were whole-genome sequenced. Chromosomal and plasmid phylogenomic analysis was performed to provide temporal and spatial context to these new strains and previously sequenced Bcbva. Tau and principal component analyses were utilized to identify genetic and spatial case patterns in the Taï National Park anthrax zone. (3) Results: Preliminary studies positively identified Bcbva presence in several archival bone fragments. The animals in question died between 1994 and 2010. Previously, the earliest archival strains of Bcbva were identified in 1996. Though the pathogen has a homogeneous genome, spatial analyses of a subset of mappable isolates from Taï National Park revealed strains found closer together were generally more similar, with strains from chimpanzees and duikers having the widest distribution. Ancestral strains were located mostly in the west of the park and had lower spatial clustering compared to more recent isolates, indicating a local increase in genetic diversity of Bcbva in the park over space and time. Global clustering analysis indicates patterns of genetic diversity and distance are shared between the ancestral and more recently isolated type strains. (4) Conclusions: Our strains have the potential to unveil historical genomic information not available elsewhere. This information sheds light on the evolution and emergence of a dangerous anthrax-causing pathogen.

Incidence and Spatial distribution of Human and Livestock Anthrax in Cao Bang Province, Vietnam (2004-2020)

Specific knowledge on the distribution of anthrax, a zoonosis caused by Bacillus anthracis, in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam, remains limited. In this study, we describe disease incidence and spatial distribution of human and livestock anthrax using spatially smoothed cumulative incidence from 2004 to 2020 in Cao Bang province, Vietnam. We employed the zonal statistics routine a geographic information system (GIS) using QGIS, and spatial rate smoothing using spatial Bayes smoothing in GeoDa. Results showed higher incidence of livestock anthrax compared with human anthrax. We also identified co-occurrence of anthrax in humans and livestock in northwestern districts and the province center. Livestock anthrax vaccine coverage was <6% and not equally distributed among the districts of Cao Bang province. We provide implications for future studies and recommend improving disease surveillance and response through data sharing between human and animal health sectors.

Analyzing Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Designated Malaria Risk Areas in Nepal from 2018 to 2021

Background: Nepal is preparing to eliminate malaria by 2026. To evaluate the progress of vector control and prioritize areas for targeted intervention, understanding the recent changing distribution of high and moderate malaria risk areas is vital. Methods: Patterns of designated high and moderate malaria risk wards in Nepal between 2018 and 2021 were analyzed to identify stable and newly generated high- and moderate-risk (HaMR) wards, using the Spatial Temporal Analysis of Moving Polygons (STAMP) method. Results and Conclusions: High-risk and moderate-risk wards decreased by about 55% and the number of districts containing these wards also decreased from 20 to 14. However, several stable and new HaMR wards, mostly in the northwest and the southwest of the country, are apparent, despite intervention efforts. Public health officials should prioritize those wards for malaria surveillance and vector control, and future studies should explore the underlying reasons for persistent risk wards.

Beyond the spore, the exosporium sugar anthrose impacts vegetative Bacillus anthracis gene regulation in cis and trans

The Bacillus anthracis exosporium nap is the outermost portion of spore that interacts with the environment and host systems. Changes to this layer have the potential to impact wide-ranging physiological and immunological processes. The unique sugar, anthrose, normally coats the exosporium nap at its most distal points. We previously identified additional mechanisms rendering B. anthracis anthrose negative. In this work, several new ant ^- B. anthracis strains are identified and the impact of anthrose negativity on spore physiology is investigated. We demonstrate that live-attenuated Sterne vaccines as well as culture filtrate anthrax vaccines generate antibodies targeting non-protein components of the spore. The role of anthrose as a vegetative B. anthracis Sterne signaling molecule is implicated by luminescent expression strain assays, RNA-seq experiments, and toxin secretion analysis by western blot. Pure anthrose and the sporulation-inducing nucleoside analogue decoyinine had similar effects on toxin expression. Co-culture experiments demonstrated gene expression changes in B. anthracis depend on intracellular anthrose status (cis) in addition to anthrose status of extracellular interactions (trans). These findings provide a mechanism for how a unique spore-specific sugar residue affects physiology, expression and genetics of vegetative B. anthracis with impacts on the ecology, pathogenesis, and vaccinology of anthrax.

Informing One Health Anthrax Surveillance and Vaccination Strategy from Spatial Analysis of Anthrax in Humans and Livestock in Ha Giang Province, Vietnam (1999-2020)

Anthrax, caused by Bacillus anthracis, has a nearly global distribution but is understudied in Southeast Asia, including Vietnam. Here, we used historical data from 1999 to 2020 in Ha Giang, a province in northern Vietnam. The objectives were to describe the spatiotemporal patterns and epidemiology of human and livestock anthrax in the province and compare livestock vaccine coverage with human and livestock anthrax incidence. Annual incidence rates (per 10,000) for humans, buffalo/cattle, and goats were used to explore anthrax patterns and for comparison with livestock annual vaccine variations. A data subset describes anthrax epidemiology in humans by gender, age, source of infection, type of anthrax, admission site, and season. Zonal statistics and SaTScan were used to identify spatial and space-time clusters of human anthrax. SaTScan revealed space-time clusters in 1999, 2004, and 2007-2008 in the province, including in the northeastern, eastern, and western areas. Most human anthrax was reported between July and October. Most patients were male, aged 15-59 years, who had handled sick animals and/or consumed contaminated meat. High case-fatality rates were reported with gastrointestinal or respiratory cases. Our data suggest that vaccination in buffalo and cattle reduces the disease burden in humans and vaccinated animals but does not reduce the incidence in unvaccinated animals (goats). This study identified spatial areas of high risk for anthrax and can inform One Health surveillance and livestock vaccination planning in contextual settings similar to Ha Giang province.

Malaria transmission in Nepal under climate change: anticipated shifts in extent and season, and comparison with risk definitions for intervention

BACKGROUND

Climate and climate change affect the spatial pattern and seasonality of malaria risk. Season lengths and spatial extents of mapped current and future malaria transmission suitability predictions for Nepal were assessed for a combination of malaria vector and parasites: Anopheles stephensi and Plasmodium falciparum (ASPF) and An. stephensi and Plasmodium vivax (ASPV) and compared with observed estimates of malaria risk in Nepal.

METHODS

Thermal bounds of malaria transmission suitability for baseline (1960-1990) and future climate projections (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2030 and 2050) were extracted from global climate models and mapped for Nepal. Season length and spatial extent of suitability between baseline and future climate scenarios for ASPF and ASPV were compared using the Warren's I metric. Official 2010 DoHS risk districts (DRDs) and 2021 DoHS risk wards (DRWs), and spatiotemporal incidence trend clusters (ITCs) were overlaid on suitability season length and extent maps to assess agreement, and potential mismatches.

RESULTS

Shifts in season length and extent of malaria transmission suitability in Nepal are anticipated under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in 2030 and 2050, compared to baseline climate. The changes are broadly consistent across both future climate scenarios for ASPF and ASPV. There will be emergence of suitability and increasing length of season for both ASPF and ASPV and decreasing length of season for ASPV by 2050. The emergence of suitability will occur in low and no-risk DRDs and outside of high and moderate-risk DRWs, season length increase will occur across all DRD categories, and outside of high and moderate-risk DRWs. The high and moderate risk DRWs of 2021 fall into ITCs with decreasing trend.

CONCLUSIONS

The study identified areas of Nepal where malaria transmission suitability will emerge, disappear, increase, and decrease in the future. However, most of these areas are anticipated outside of the government's current and previously designated high and moderate-risk areas, and thus outside the focus of vector control interventions. Public health officials could use these anticipated changing areas of malaria risk to inform vector control interventions for eliminating malaria from the country, and to prevent malaria resurgence.

Spatial analysis of human and livestock anthrax in Dien Bien province, Vietnam (2010-2019) and the significance of anthrax vaccination in livestock

Anthrax is a serious zoonosis caused by Bacillus anthracis, which primarily affects wild herbivorous animals with spillover into humans. The disease occurs nearly worldwide but is poorly reported in Southeast Asian countries. In Vietnam, anthrax is underreported, and little is known about its temporal and spatial distributions. This paper examines the spatio-temporal distribution and epidemiological characteristics of human and livestock anthrax from Dien Bien province, Vietnam from 2010 to 2019. We also aim to define the role of livestock vaccination in reducing human cases. Historical anthrax data were collected by local human and animal health sectors in the province. Spatial rate smoothing and spatial clustering analysis, using Local Moran's I in GeoDa and space-time scan statistic in SaTScan, were employed to address these objectives. We found temporal and spatial overlap of anthrax incidence in humans and livestock with hotspots of human anthrax in the east. We identified three significant space-time clusters of human anthrax persisting from 2010 to 2014 in the east and southeast, each with high relative risk. Most of the human cases were male (69%), aged 15-59 years (80%), involved in processing, slaughtering, or eating meat of sick or dead livestock (96.9%) but environmental and unknown exposure were reported. Animal reports were limited compared to humans and at coarser spatial scale, but in areas with human case clusters. In years when livestock vaccination was high (>~25%), human incidence was reduced, with the opposite effect when vaccine rates dropped. This indicates livestock vaccination campaigns reduce anthrax burden in both humans and livestock in Vietnam, though livestock surveillance needs immediate improvement. These findings suggest further investigation and measures to strengthen the surveillance of human and animal anthrax for other provinces of Vietnam, as well as in other countries with similar disease context.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Anthrax, Vietnam, 1990–2015

Anthrax is a priority zoonosis for control in Vietnam. The geographic distribution of anthrax remains to be defined, challenging our ability to target areas for control. We analyzed human anthrax cases in Vietnam to obtain anthrax incidence at the national and provincial level. Nationally, the trendline for cases remained at ≈61 cases/year throughout the 26 years of available data, indicating control efforts are not effectively reducing disease burden over time. Most anthrax cases occurred in the Northern Midlands and Mountainous regions, and the provinces of Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Lao Cai, Ha Giang, Cao Bang, and Son La experienced some of the highest incidence rates. Based on spatial Bayes smoothed maps, every region of Vietnam experienced human anthrax cases during the study period. Clarifying the distribution of anthrax in Vietnam will enable us to better identify risk areas for improved surveillance, rapid clinical care, and livestock vaccination campaigns.

Characterization of Bacillus anthracis replication and persistence on environmental substrates associated with wildlife anthrax outbreaks

Anthrax is a zoonosis caused by the environmentally maintained, spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, affecting humans, livestock, and wildlife nearly worldwide. Bacterial spores are ingested, inhaled, and may be mechanically transmitted by biting insects or injection as occurs during heroin-associated human cases. Herbivorous hoofstock are very susceptible to anthrax. When these hosts die of anthrax, a localized infectious zone (LIZ) forms in the area surrounding the carcass as it is scavenged and decomposes, where viable populations of vegetative B. anthracis and spores contaminate the environment. In many settings, necrophagous flies contaminate the outer carcass, surrounding soils, and vegetation with viable pathogen while scavenging. Field observations in Texas have confirmed this process and identified primary browse species (e.g., persimmon) are contaminated. However, there are limited data available on B. anthracis survival on environmental substrates immediately following host death at a LIZ. Toward this, we simulated fly contamination by inoculating live-attenuated, fully virulent laboratory-adapted, and fully virulent wild B. anthracis strains on untreated leaves and rocks for 2, 5, and 7 days. At each time point after inoculation, the number of vegetative cells and spores were determined. Sporulation rates were extracted from these different time points to enable comparison of sporulation speeds between B. anthracis strains with different natural histories. We found all B. anthracis strains used in this study could multiply for 2 or more days post inoculation and persist on leaves and rocks for at least seven days with variation by strain. We found differences in sporulation rates between laboratory-adapted strains and wild isolates, with the live-attenuated strain sporulating fastest, followed by the wild isolates, then laboratory-adapted virulent strains. Extrapolating our wild strain lab results to potential contamination, a single blow fly may contaminate leaves with up to 8.62 x 105 spores per day and a single carcass may host thousands of flies. Replication outside of the carcass and rapid sporulation confirms the LIZ extends beyond the carcass for several days after formation and supports the necrophagous fly transmission pathway for amplifying cases during an outbreak. We note caution must be taken when extrapolating replication and sporulation rates from live-attenuated and laboratory-adapted strains of B. anthracis.

Assays for Identification and Differentiation of Brucella Species: A Review

Brucellosis is one of the most important and widespread bacterial zoonoses worldwide. Cases are reported annually across the range of known infectious species of the genus Brucella. Globally, Brucella melitensis, primarily hosted by domestic sheep and goats, affects large proportions of livestock herds, and frequently spills over into humans. While some species, such as Brucella abortus, are well controlled in livestock in areas of North America, the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem supports the species in native wild ungulates with occasional spillover to livestock. Elsewhere in North America, other Brucella species still infect domestic dogs and feral swine, with some associated human cases. Brucella spp. patterns vary across space globally with B. abortus and B. melitensis the most important for livestock control. A myriad of other species within the genus infect a wide range of marine mammals, wildlife, rodents, and even frogs. Infection in humans from these others varies with geography and bacterial species. Control in humans is primarily achieved through livestock vaccination and culling and requires accurate and rapid species confirmation; vaccination is Brucella spp.-specific and typically targets single livestock species for distribution. Traditional bacteriology methods are slow (some media can take up to 21 days for bacterial growth) and often lack the specificity of molecular techniques. Here, we summarize the molecular techniques for confirming and identifying specific Brucella species and provide recommendations for selecting the appropriate methods based on need, sensitivity, and laboratory capabilities/technology. As vaccination/culling approaches are costly and logistically challenging, proper diagnostics and species identification are critical tools for targeting surveillance and control.

Search for Subsolar-Mass Binaries in the First Half of Advanced LIGO's and Advanced Virgo's Third Observing Run

We report on a search for compact binary coalescences where at least one binary component has a mass between 0.2  M_{⊙} and 1.0  M_{⊙} in Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo data collected between 1 April 2019 1500 UTC and 1 October 2019 1500 UTC. We extend our previous analyses in two main ways: we include data from the Virgo detector and we allow for more unequal mass systems, with mass ratio q≥0.1. We do not report any gravitational-wave candidates. The most significant trigger has a false alarm rate of 0.14  yr^{-1}. This implies an upper limit on the merger rate of subsolar binaries in the range [220-24200]  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}, depending on the chirp mass of the binary. We use this upper limit to derive astrophysical constraints on two phenomenological models that could produce subsolar-mass compact objects. One is an isotropic distribution of equal-mass primordial black holes. Using this model, we find that the fraction of dark matter in primordial black holes in the mass range 0.2  M_{⊙}<m_{PBH}<1.0  M_{⊙} is f_{PBH}≡Ω_{PBH}/Ω_{DM}≲6%. This improves existing constraints on primordial black hole abundance by a factor of ∼3. The other is a dissipative dark matter model, in which fermionic dark matter can collapse and form black holes. The upper limit on the fraction of dark matter black holes depends on the minimum mass of the black holes that can be formed: the most constraining result is obtained at M_{min}=1  M_{⊙}, where f_{DBH}≡Ω_{DBH}/Ω_{DM}≲0.003%. These are the first constraints placed on dissipative dark models by subsolar-mass analyses.

A framework for integrating inferred movement behavior into disease risk models

Movement behavior is an important contributor to habitat selection and its incorporation in disease risk models has been somewhat neglected. The habitat preferences of host individuals affect their probability of exposure to pathogens. If preference behavior can be incorporated in ecological niche models (ENMs) when data on pathogen distributions are available, then variation in such behavior may dramatically impact exposure risk. Here we use data from the anthrax endemic system of Etosha National Park, Namibia, to demonstrate how integrating inferred movement behavior alters the construction of disease risk maps. We used a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model that associated soil, bioclimatic, and vegetation variables with the best available pathogen presence data collected at anthrax carcass sites to map areas of most likely Bacillus anthracis (the causative bacterium of anthrax) persistence. We then used a hidden Markov model (HMM) to distinguish foraging and non-foraging behavioral states along the movement tracks of nine zebra (Equus quagga) during the 2009 and 2010 anthrax seasons. The resulting tracks, decomposed on the basis of the inferred behavioral state, formed the basis of step-selection functions (SSFs) that used the MaxEnt output as a potential predictor variable. Our analyses revealed different risks of exposure during different zebra behavioral states, which were obscured when the full movement tracks were analyzed without consideration of the underlying behavioral states of individuals. Pathogen (or vector) distribution models may be misleading with regard to the actual risk faced by host animal populations when specific behavioral states are not explicitly accounted for in selection analyses. To more accurately evaluate exposure risk, especially in the case of environmentally transmitted pathogens, selection functions could be built for each identified behavioral state and then used to assess the comparative exposure risk across relevant states. The scale of data collection and analysis, however, introduces complexities and limitations for consideration when interpreting results.

Household and climate factors influence Aedes aegypti presence in the arid city of Huaquillas, Ecuador

Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti (e.g., dengue, chikungunya, Zika) are of major public health concern on the arid coastal border of Ecuador and Peru. This high transit border is a critical disease surveillance site due to human movement-associated risk of transmission. Local level studies are thus integral to capturing the dynamics and distribution of vector populations and social-ecological drivers of risk, to inform targeted public health interventions. Our study examines factors associated with household-level Ae. aegypti presence in Huaquillas, Ecuador, while accounting for spatial and temporal effects. From January to May of 2017, adult mosquitoes were collected from a cohort of households (n = 63) in clusters (n = 10), across the city of Huaquillas, using aspirator backpacks. Household surveys describing housing conditions, demographics, economics, travel, disease prevention, and city services were conducted by local enumerators. This study was conducted during the normal arbovirus transmission season (January—May), but during an exceptionally dry year. Household level Ae. aegypti presence peaked in February, and counts were highest in weeks with high temperatures and a week after increased rainfall. Univariate analyses with proportional odds logistic regression were used to explore household social-ecological variables and female Ae. aegypti presence. We found that homes were more likely to have Ae. aegypti when households had interruptions in piped water service. Ae. aegypti presence was less likely in households with septic systems. Based on our findings, infrastructure access and seasonal climate are important considerations for vector control in this city, and even in dry years, the arid environment of Huaquillas supports Ae. aegypti breeding habitat.

Mosquito transmitted infectious diseases are a growing concern around the world. The yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) has been responsible for recent major outbreaks of disease, including dengue fever and Zika. This mosquito prefers to bite humans and lay its eggs in artificial containers such as water tanks and planters. This makes Ae. aegypti well suited to become established in growing urban areas. Controlling these mosquitoes has been an important way to reduce the risk of disease transmission. Studies that are undertaken to understand local factors that contribute to the continued survival of the mosquito can be used to inform control practices. We conducted a study in the largest Ecuadorian city on the border of Peru where we collected adult mosquitoes from houses and surveyed household members about their behaviors, perceptions, and housing infrastructure associated with the mosquito vector. Mosquitoes were most numerous in weeks with high temperatures and a week after increased rainfall. We found that houses that had unreliable water service were more likely have mosquitoes present, while houses that used septic systems were less likely to have mosquitoes present.

Anthrax Surveillance and the Limited Overlap Between Obligate Scavengers and Endemic Anthrax Zones in the United States

Anthrax is a zoonosis caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, with potential for high fatality rate, especially in herbivores. Upon host death, spores can enter the soil surrounding the carcass and be ingested by other animals feeding in the same location. Accordingly, surveillance to quickly identify and decontaminate anthrax carcasses is crucial to outbreak prevention. In endemic anthrax areas such as Texas and Africa, vultures are used as a surveillance tool for identifying presence and location of dead animals. However, many anthrax outbreaks in the United States have occurred in areas outside the ranges of both black and turkey vultures. Here, we used a longitudinal camera trap survey at carcass sites in southwestern Montana to investigate the utility of facultative avian scavengers on disease and carcass surveillance in a reemerging anthrax risk zone. From August 2016 to September 2018, camera traps at 11 carcass sites were triggered 1996 times by avian scavengers. While the majority were facultative avian scavengers such as corvids and eagles, our results suggest that facultative scavengers cannot replace vultures as a surveillance tool in this ecosystem due to their absence during the anthrax risk period (June to August), reduced search efficiency, or low flight patterns. We found that the conditions in Montana likely parallel systems elsewhere in the continental United States. Using ecological niche models of B. anthracis distribution overlaid with relative abundance maps of turkey vultures, we found that much of North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Wyoming, Nebraska, and Iowa have areas of anthrax risk, but low or absent turkey vulture populations. Without vultures in these areas, surveillance capacity is reduced, and it becomes more difficult to identify anthrax cases, meaning fewer carcasses are decontaminated, and consequently, outbreaks could become more frequent or severe.

High Case-Fatality Rate for Human Anthrax, Northern Ghana, 2005-2016

The human cutaneous anthrax case-fatality rate is ≈1% when treated, 5%-20% when untreated. We report high case-fatality rates (median 35.0%; 95% CI 21.1%-66.7%) during 2005-2016 linked to livestock handling in northern Ghana, where veterinary resources are limited. Livestock vaccination and access to human treatment should be evaluated.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Constraints on Cosmic Strings Using Data from the Third Advanced LIGO-Virgo Observing Run

We search for gravitational-wave signals produced by cosmic strings in the Advanced LIGO and Virgo full O3 dataset. Search results are presented for gravitational waves produced by cosmic string loop features such as cusps, kinks, and, for the first time, kink-kink collisions. A template-based search for short-duration transient signals does not yield a detection. We also use the stochastic gravitational-wave background energy density upper limits derived from the O3 data to constrain the cosmic string tension Gμ as a function of the number of kinks, or the number of cusps, for two cosmic string loop distribution models. Additionally, we develop and test a third model that interpolates between these two models. Our results improve upon the previous LIGO-Virgo constraints on Gμ by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude depending on the model that is tested. In particular, for the one-loop distribution model, we set the most competitive constraints to date: Gμ≲4×10^{-15}. In the case of cosmic strings formed at the end of inflation in the context of grand unified theories, these results challenge simple inflationary models.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya

BACKGROUND

Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning.

METHODS

Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves.

RESULTS

Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax.

CONCLUSION

These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.

Factors influencing scavenger guilds and scavenging efficiency in Southwestern Montana

Scavenging of carrion shapes ecological landscapes by influencing scavenger population demography, increasing inter- and intra-specific interactions, and generating ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and disease moderation. Previous research found the cues promoting, or the constraints limiting, an individual's propensity or ability to scavenge vary widely, depending on anthropogenic and environmental factors. Here we investigated differences in scavenging patterns in a complex scavenger guild in Southwestern Montana. We used camera traps established at 13 carcass sites to monitor carcass detection, visitation, and consumption times, during 2016-2018 and generalized linear models to explore the influence of carcass characteristics, habitat features, and seasonality, on carcass selection and scavenging efficiency. We found that scavenger species diversity was higher at higher elevations and in grassland habitats. Scavenging efficiency was influenced inter alia by seasonality, distance to water, and elevation. We found that most carcass consumption was via facultative scavengers (bears, wolves, magpies, Corvus spp.) rather than turkey vultures, the only obligate scavengers in the study area. However, growing populations of turkey vultures may lead to increased competition with facultative scavengers over carrion, and could have cascading effects on food webs in this ecosystem.

Correction: Convergent evolution of diverse Bacillus anthracis outbreak strains toward altered surface oligosaccharides that modulate anthrax pathogenesis

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3001052.].

Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Communities Differ Between a Game Preserve and Nearby Natural Areas in Northern Florida

Culicoides Latreille biting midges are small hematophagous flies that feed on a variety of vertebrate animals. White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), a farmed species in the United States, can occur at high densities on farms. This elevated density of available hosts may result in greater abundance of midges and greater potential for disease transmission on farms than natural ecosystems. This research aimed to determine whether Culicoides abundance varied between a game preserve in Gadsden County, Florida, a site bordering the preserve ('adjacent'), a site 3.5 km away ('moderate'), and a site 13 km away ('distant'). CDC light traps were set one night per week at the preserve, adjacent site, and moderate site in 2016 and at all four sites in 2017. Total abundance was greatest at the preserve and second greatest at the adjacent site both years. Average abundance of female Culicoides stellifer (Coquillett) was an order of magnitude greater on the preserve (x¯=24.59 in 2016, 17.95 in 2017) than at any other site (x¯≤1.68 in 2016, x¯≤1.03 in 2017), whereas the greatest average abundance of Culicoides venustus Hoffman was found at the adjacent site (x¯=5.15 in 2016, x¯=1.92 in 2017). Distance from the preserve significantly affected overall average abundance for both species (P < 0.001), although pairwise significance varied. Species diversity was lowest on the preserve and highest at the moderate site both years. These data suggest that high densities of animals may increase transmission potential on high fence preserves and in adjacent areas by contributing to high densities of vector species.

Convergent evolution of diverse Bacillus anthracis outbreak strains toward altered surface oligosaccharides that modulate anthrax pathogenesis

Bacillus anthracis, a spore-forming gram-positive bacterium, causes anthrax. The external surface of the exosporium is coated with glycosylated proteins. The sugar additions are capped with the unique monosaccharide anthrose. The West African Group (WAG) B. anthracis have mutations rendering them anthrose deficient. Through genome sequencing, we identified 2 different large chromosomal deletions within the anthrose biosynthetic operon of B. anthracis strains from Chile and Poland. In silico analysis identified an anthrose-deficient strain in the anthrax outbreak among European heroin users. Anthrose-deficient strains are no longer restricted to West Africa so the role of anthrose in physiology and pathogenesis was investigated in B. anthracis Sterne. Loss of anthrose delayed spore germination and enhanced sporulation. Spores without anthrose were phagocytized at higher rates than spores with anthrose, indicating that anthrose may serve an antiphagocytic function on the spore surface. The anthrose mutant had half the LD50 and decreased time to death (TTD) of wild type and complement B. anthracis Sterne in the A/J mouse model. Following infection, anthrose mutant bacteria were more abundant in the spleen, indicating enhanced dissemination of Sterne anthrose mutant. At low sample sizes in the A/J mouse model, the mortality of ΔantC-infected mice challenged by intranasal or subcutaneous routes was 20% greater than wild type. Competitive index (CI) studies indicated that spores without anthrose disseminated to organs more extensively than a complemented mutant. Death process modeling using mouse mortality dynamics suggested that larger sample sizes would lead to significantly higher deaths in anthrose-negative infected animals. The model was tested by infecting Galleria mellonella with spores and confirmed the anthrose mutant was significantly more lethal. Vaccination studies in the A/J mouse model showed that the human vaccine protected against high-dose challenges of the nonencapsulated Sterne-based anthrose mutant. This work begins to identify the physiologic and pathogenic consequences of convergent anthrose mutations in B. anthracis.

Ungulate use of locally infectious zones in a re-emerging anthrax risk area

Environmentally mediated indirect pathogen transmission is linked to host movement and foraging in areas where pathogens are maintained in the environment. In the case of anthrax, spores of the causative bacterium Bacillus anthracis are released into the environment following host death and create locally infectious zones (LIZs) around carcass sites; by grazing at LIZs, herbivores are potentially exposed to spores. Here, we used camera traps to assess how ungulate species use carcass sites in southwestern Montana and evaluated how these behaviours may promote indirect anthrax transmission, thus providing, to our knowledge, the first detailed documentation and study of the fine-scale mechanisms underlying foraging-based disease transmission in this ecosystem. We found that carcasses at LIZs significantly increased aboveground biomass of vegetation and concentrations of sodium and phosphorus, potentially making these sites more appealing to grazers. Host behavioural responses to LIZs varied depending on species, sex, season and carcass age; but, overall, our results demonstrated that carcasses or carcass sites serve as an attractant to herbivores in this system. Attraction to LIZs probably represents an increased risk of exposure to B. anthracis and, consequently, increased anthrax transmission rates. Accordingly, continued anthrax surveillance and control strategies are critical in this system.

Sex-Specific Elk Resource Selection during the Anthrax Risk Period

Anthrax, caused by the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonosis affecting animals and humans globally. In the United States, anthrax outbreaks occur in wildlife and livestock, with frequent outbreaks in native and exotic wildlife species in Texas, livestock outbreaks in the Dakotas, and sporadic mixed outbreaks in Montana. Understanding where pathogen and host habitat selection overlap is essential for anthrax management. Resource selection and habitat use of ungulates may be sex-specific and lead to differential anthrax exposure risks across the landscape for males and females. We evaluated female elk (Cervus canadensis) resource selection in the same study areas as male elk in a previous anthrax risk study to identify risk of anthrax transmission to females and compare transmission risk between females and males. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model to estimate resource selection for female elk in southwest Montana during the June to August anthrax transmission risk period. We then predicted habitat selection of female and male elk across the study area and compared selection with the distribution of anthrax risk to identify spatial distributions of potential anthrax exposure for the male and female elk. Female and male elk selected different resources during the anthrax risk period, which resulted in different anthrax exposure areas for females and males. The sex-specific resource selection and habitat use could infer different areas of risk for anthrax transmission, which can improve anthrax and wildlife management and have important public health and economic implications.

GW190521: A Binary Black Hole Merger with a Total Mass of 150 M_{⊙}

On May 21, 2019 at 03:02:29 UTC Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo observed a short duration gravitational-wave signal, GW190521, with a three-detector network signal-to-noise ratio of 14.7, and an estimated false-alarm rate of 1 in 4900 yr using a search sensitive to generic transients. If GW190521 is from a quasicircular binary inspiral, then the detected signal is consistent with the merger of two black holes with masses of 85_{-14}^{+21}  M_{⊙} and 66_{-18}^{+17}  M_{⊙} (90% credible intervals). We infer that the primary black hole mass lies within the gap produced by (pulsational) pair-instability supernova processes, with only a 0.32% probability of being below 65  M_{⊙}. We calculate the mass of the remnant to be 142_{-16}^{+28}  M_{⊙}, which can be considered an intermediate mass black hole (IMBH). The luminosity distance of the source is 5.3_{-2.6}^{+2.4}  Gpc, corresponding to a redshift of 0.82_{-0.34}^{+0.28}. The inferred rate of mergers similar to GW190521 is 0.13_{-0.11}^{+0.30}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}.

Distribution of Serological Response to Burkholderia pseudomallei in Swine from Three Provinces of Vietnam

(1) Background: Burkholderia pseudomallei is an environmentally mediated saprophytic pathogen that can cause severe disease in humans. It is well known that B. pseudomallei survives in tropical moist soil environments worldwide, but melioidosis is gaining recognition as a public and veterinary health issue in Vietnam. The contribution of animals to human disease is unknown, necessitating further investigation. (2) Methods: Swine sera were collected from two populations, one grazing and one commercially farmed, from three provinces in Vietnam. ELISAs utilizing B. pseudomallei capsular polysaccharide (CPS), outer polysaccharide (OPS), and Hcp1 protein were used to screen serum samples. Positive samples were mapped to the commune level. Seroprevalence calculations and pig population estimates were used to approximate number of swine exposures per commune. (3) Results: Grazing pigs from Hoa Binh had significantly higher seropositivity levels (11.4%, 95% CI: 9.7–13.1) compared to farmed pigs from Ha Tinh and Nghe An (4%, 95% CI: 3.3–4.7). Average swine seropositivity rates were ~6.3% (95% CI: 5–7.9), higher than previously identified in Vietnam (~0.88%). (4) Conclusions: Initial serological sampling identified a significant number of seropositive and potential melioidosis infections occurring in swine in Vietnam. This work is a critical step in understanding the role swine may play in the epidemiology of human melioidosis in Vietnam.

Exploring environmental coverages of species: a new variable contribution estimation methodology for rulesets from the genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction

Variable contribution estimation for, and determination of variable importance within, ecological niche models (ENMs) remain an important area of research with continuing challenges. Most ENM algorithms provide normally exhaustive searches through variable space; however, selecting variables to include in models is a first challenge. The estimation of the explanatory power of variables and the selection of the most appropriate variable set within models can be a second challenge. Although some ENMs incorporate the variable selection rubric inside the algorithms, there is no integrated rubric to evaluate the variable importance in the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP). Here, we designed a novel variable selection methodology based on the rulesets generated from a GARP experiment. The importance of the variables in a GARP experiment can be estimated based on the consideration of the prevalence of each environmental variable in the dominant presence rules of the best subset of models and its coverage. We tested the performance of this variable selection method based on simulated species with both weak and strong responses to simulated environmental covariates. The variable selection method generally performed well during the simulations with over 2/3 of the trials correctly identifying most covariates. We then predict the distribution of Toxostoma rufum (a bird with a cosmopolitan distribution) in the continental United States (US) and apply our variable selection procedure as a real-world example. We found that the distribution of T. rufum could be accurately modeled with 13 or 10 of 21 variables, using an UI cutoff of 0.5 or 0.25, respectively, arriving at parsimonious environmental coverages with good model accuracy. We also provide tools to simulate species distributions for testing ENM approaches using R.

Living la Vida T-LoCoH: site fidelity of Florida ranched and wild white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) during the epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) transmission period

BACKGROUND

Epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) is a pathogen vectored by Culicoides midges that causes significant economic loss in the cervid farming industry and affects wild deer as well. Despite this, its ecology is poorly understood. Studying movement and space use by ruminant hosts during the transmission season may elucidate EHDV ecology by identifying behaviors that can increase exposure risk. Here we compared home ranges (HRs) and site fidelity metrics within HRs using the T-LoCoH R package and GPS data from collared deer.

METHODS

Here, we tested whether white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) roaming within a high-fenced, private deer farm (ranched) and native deer from nearby state-managed properties (wild) exhibited differences in home range (HR) size and usage during the 2016 and 2017 EHDV seasons. We captured male and female individuals in both years and derived seasonal HRs for both sexes and both groups for each year. HRs were calculated using a time-scale distance approach in T-LoCoH. We then derived revisitation and duration of visit metrics and compared between years, sexes, and ranched and wild deer.

RESULTS

We found that ranched deer of both sexes tended to have smaller activity spaces (95% HR) and revisited sites within their HR more often but stayed for shorter periods than wild deer. However, core area (25% HR) sizes did not significantly differ between these groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The contrast in our findings between wild and ranched deer suggest that home range usage, rather than size, in addition to differences in population density, likely drive differences in disease exposure during the transmission period.

Coalescence modeling of intrainfection Bacillus anthracis populations allows estimation of infection parameters in wild populations

Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For B. anthracis and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host-pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of B. anthracis in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of B. anthracis to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra (Equus quagga). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.

A network analysis framework to improve the delivery of mosquito abatement services in Machala, Ecuador

Background

Vector-borne disease places a high health and economic burden in the American tropics. Comprehensive vector control programs remain the primary method of containing local outbreaks. With limited resources, many vector control operations struggle to serve all affected communities within their districts. In the coastal city of Machala, Ecuador, vector control services, such as application of larvicides and truck-mounted fogging, are delivered through two deployment facilities managed by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health. Public health professionals in Machala face several logistical issues when delivering mosquito abatement services, namely applying limited resources in ways that will most effectively suppress vectors of malaria, dengue, and encephalitis viruses.

Methods

Using a transportation network analysis framework, we built models of service areas and optimized delivery routes based on distance costs associated with accessing neighborhoods throughout the city. Optimized routes were used to estimate the relative cost of accessing neighborhoods for mosquito control services in Machala, creating a visual tool to guide decision makers and maximize mosquito control program efficiency. Location-allocation analyses were performed to evaluate efficiency gains of moving service deployment to other available locations with respect to distance to service hub, neighborhood population, dengue incidence, and housing condition.

Results

Using this framework, we identified different locations for targeting mosquito control efforts, dependent upon management goals and specified risk factors of interest, including human population, housing condition, and reported dengue incidence. Our models indicate that neighborhoods on the periphery of Machala with the poorest housing conditions are the most costly to access. Optimal locations of facilities for deployment of control services change depending on pre-determined management priorities, increasing the population served via inexpensive routes up to 34.9%, and reducing overall cost of accessing neighborhoods up to 12.7%.

Conclusions

Our transportation network models indicate that current locations of mosquito control facilities in Machala are not ideal for minimizing driving distances or maximizing populations served. Services may be optimized by moving vector control operations to other existing public health facilities in Machala. This work represents a first step in creating a spatial tool for planning and critically evaluating the systematic delivery of mosquito control services in Machala and elsewhere.

Predicting the Geographic Distribution of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a/Western North American Sub-Lineage for the Continental United States: New Outbreaks, New Genotypes, and New Climate Data

Bacillus anthracis, the causative pathogen of anthrax, is a spore-forming, environmentally maintained bacterium that continues to be a veterinary health problem with outbreaks occurring primarily in wildlife and livestock. Globally, the genetic populations of B. anthracis include multiple lineages, and each may have different ecological requirements and geographical distributions. It is, therefore, essential to identify environmental associations within lineages to predict geographical distributions and risk areas with improved accuracy. Here, we model the ecological niche and predict the geography of the most widespread sublineage of B. anthracis in the continental United States using updated MERRA-derived (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications; the NASA atmospheric data reanalysis of satellite information with multiple data products) bioclimate variables (i.e., MERRAclim data) and updated soil variables. We filter the occurrence data associated with the A1.a/Western North American sub-lineage of B. anthracis from historical anthrax outbreaks using the multiple-locus variable-number tandem repeat system. In addition, we also incorporate recent cases associated with B. anthracis A1.a sub-lineage from 2008 to 2012 in Montana, Colorado, and Texas. Our results provide the predicted distribution of the A1.a sub-lineage of B. anthracis for the United States with better predictive accuracy and higher spatial resolution than previous estimates. Our prediction serves as an improved disease risk map to better inform anthrax surveillance and control in the United States, particularly the Dakotas and Montana where this sub-lineage is persistent.

Laboratory strains of Bacillus anthracis lose their ability to rapidly grow and sporulate compared to wildlife outbreak strains

Bacillus anthracis is the causative agent of anthrax in animals and humans. The organism lies in a dormant state in the soil until introduced into an animal via, ingestion, cutaneous inoculation or inhalation. Once in the host, spores germinate into rapidly growing vegetative cells elaborating toxins. When animals die of anthrax, vegetative bacteria sporulate upon nutrient limitation in the carcass or soil while in the presence of air. After release into the soil environment, spores form a localized infectious zone (LIZ) at and around the carcass. Laboratory strains of B. anthracis produce fewer proteins associated with growth and sporulation compared to wild strains isolated from recent zoonotic disease events. We verified wild strains grow more rapidly than lab strains demonstrating a greater responsiveness to nutrient availability. Sporulation was significantly more rapid in these wild strains compared to lab strains, indicating wild strains are able to sporulate faster due to nutrient limitation while laboratory strains have a decrease in the speed at which they utilize nutrients and an increase in time to sporulation. These findings have implications for disease control at the LIZ as well as on the infectious cycle of this dangerous zoonotic pathogen.

Nucleotide polymorphism assay for the identification of west African group Bacillus anthracis: a lineage lacking anthrose

Background

The exosporium of the anthrax-causing Bacillus anthracis endospores display a tetrasaccharide composed of three rhamnose residues and an unusual sugar termed anthrose. Anthrose is a proposed potential target for immunotherapy and for specific detection of B. anthracis. Although originally thought to be ubiquitous in B. anthracis, previous work identified an anthrose negative strain from a West African lineage isolated from cattle that could represent a vaccine escape mutant. These strains carry genes required for expression of the anthrose operon but premature stop codons resulting from an 8-bp insertion in BAS3320 (an amino-transferase) and a C/T substitution at position 892 of the BAS3321 (a glycosyltransferase) gene prevent anthrose expression. Various other single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been identified throughout the operon and could be the basis for detection of anthrose-deficient strains.

Results

In this study, we evaluated rhAmp genotypic assays based on SNPs at positions 892 and 1352 of BAS3321 for detection and differentiation of anthrose negative (Ant⁻) West African strains. Discrimination of anthrose negative West African isolates was achieved with as low as 100 fg of DNA, whereas consistent genotyping of Sterne necessitated at least 1 pg of DNA.

Conclusions

Screening of a global panel of B. anthracis isolates showed anthrose-expressing alleles are prevalent worldwide whereas the anthrose-deficient phenotype is to date limited to West Africa. Our work also revealed a third, previously unreported anthrose genotype in which the operon is altogether missing from a Polish B. anthracis isolate.

Antibodies to Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease Virus (EHDV) in Farmed and Wild Florida White-Tailed Deer (Odocoileus virginianus)

The transmission of multiple serotypes of epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) between farmed and free-ranging wildlife is of interest to livestock industries and natural resource agencies. We compared the seroprevalence of EHDV-1, -2, and -6 in wild and farmed white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) herds in Florida, US. We compared serological prevalence, circulating serotypes, antibody titers, and viremia with the use of 171 whole-blood samples from 150 unvaccinated white-tailed deer from farm pens, a farm preserve, and wild deer on adjacent public lands between March 2016 and May 2017. Despite aggressive chemical vector control on the farm, we found higher seroprevalence and titers against the predominant EHDV serotype in farmed deer (in pens and the preserve) than in wild deer. The higher exposure to EHDV of farmed vs. wild deer may have been because of the higher densities of farmed vs. wild deer, the presence of exotic amplifying hosts such as elk (Cervus canadensis) in the preserve, or genetic factors that predisposed farmed deer to disease.

Search for Subsolar Mass Ultracompact Binaries in Advanced LIGO's Second Observing Run

We present a search for subsolar mass ultracompact objects in data obtained during Advanced LIGO's second observing run. In contrast to a previous search of Advanced LIGO data from the first observing run, this search includes the effects of component spin on the gravitational waveform. We identify no viable gravitational-wave candidates consistent with subsolar mass ultracompact binaries with at least one component between 0.2  M_{⊙}-1.0  M_{⊙}. We use the null result to constrain the binary merger rate of (0.2  M_{⊙}, 0.2  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 3.7×10^{5}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1} and the binary merger rate of (1.0  M_{⊙}, 1.0  M_{⊙}) binaries to be less than 5.2×10^{3}  Gpc^{-3} yr^{-1}. Subsolar mass ultracompact objects are not expected to form via known stellar evolution channels, though it has been suggested that primordial density fluctuations or particle dark matter with cooling mechanisms and/or nuclear interactions could form black holes with subsolar masses. Assuming a particular primordial black hole (PBH) formation model, we constrain a population of merging 0.2  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 16% of the dark matter density and a population of merging 1.0  M_{⊙} black holes to account for less than 2% of the dark matter density. We discuss how constraints on the merger rate and dark matter fraction may be extended to arbitrary black hole population models that predict subsolar mass binaries.

Tests of General Relativity with GW170817

The recent discovery by Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo of a gravitational wave signal from a binary neutron star inspiral has enabled tests of general relativity (GR) with this new type of source. This source, for the first time, permits tests of strong-field dynamics of compact binaries in the presence of matter. In this Letter, we place constraints on the dipole radiation and possible deviations from GR in the post-Newtonian coefficients that govern the inspiral regime. Bounds on modified dispersion of gravitational waves are obtained; in combination with information from the observed electromagnetic counterpart we can also constrain effects due to large extra dimensions. Finally, the polarization content of the gravitational wave signal is studied. The results of all tests performed here show good agreement with GR.

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.

Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control

Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km² under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador.

The yellow fever mosquito (Aedes aegypti) is a medically important vector of arboviral diseases in Ecuador, such as dengue fever and chikungunya. Managing Ae. aegypti is a challenge to public health agencies in Latin America, where the use of limited resources must be planned in an efficient, targeted manner. The spatial distribution of Ae. aegypti can be used as a proxy for risk of disease exposure, guiding policy formation and decision-making. We used ecological niche models in this study to predict the range of Ae. aegypti in Ecuador, based on agency larval mosquito surveillance records and layers of environmental predictors (e.g. climate, elevation, and human population). The best models of current range were then projected to the year 2050 under a variety of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. All modeled future scenarios predicted shifts in the range of Ae. aegypti, allowing us to assess human populations that may be at risk of becoming exposed to Aedes vectored diseases. As climate changes, we predict that communities living in areas of transitional elevation along the Andes mountain range are vulnerable to the expansion of Ae. aegypti.

Modeling R₀ for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones

How a disease is transmitted affects our ability to determine R₀, the average number of new cases caused by an infectious host at the onset of an epidemic. R₀ becomes progressively more difficult to compute as transmission varies from directly transmitted diseases to diseases that are vector-borne to environmentally transmitted diseases. Pathogens responsible for diseases with environmental transmission are typically maintained in environmental reservoirs that exhibit a complex spatial distribution of local infectious zones (LIZs). Understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence within LIZs is required for an accurate R₀ and modeling these contacts requires an integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach. Here we review how interactions between host and pathogen populations and environmental reservoirs are driven by landscape-level variables, and synthesize the quantitative framework needed to formulate outbreak response and disease control.