Tumour stage, treatment, and survival of women with high-grade serous tubo-ovarian cancer in UKCTOCS: an exploratory analysis of a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

In UKCTOCS, there was a decrease in the diagnosis of advanced stage tubo-ovarian cancer but no reduction in deaths in the multimodal screening group compared with the no screening group. Therefore, we did exploratory analyses of patients with high-grade serous ovarian cancer to understand the reason for the discrepancy.

METHODS

UKCTOCS was a 13-centre randomised controlled trial of screening postmenopausal women from the general population, aged 50-74 years, with intact ovaries. The trial management system randomly allocated (2:1:1) eligible participants (recruited from April 17, 2001, to Sept 29, 2005) in blocks of 32 using computer generated random numbers to no screening or annual screening (multimodal screening or ultrasound screening) until Dec 31, 2011. Follow-up was through national registries until June 30, 2020. An outcome review committee, masked to randomisation group, adjudicated on ovarian cancer diagnosis, histotype, stage, and cause of death. In this study, analyses were intention-to-screen comparisons of women with high-grade serous cancer at censorship (Dec 31, 2014) in multimodal screening versus no screening, using descriptive statistics for stage and treatment endpoints, and the Versatile test for survival from randomisation. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, 22488978, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00058032.

FINDINGS

202 562 eligible women were recruited (50 625 multimodal screening; 50 623 ultrasound screening; 101 314 no screening). 259 (0·5%) of 50 625 participants in the multimodal screening group and 520 (0·5%) of 101 314 in the no screening group were diagnosed with high-grade serous cancer. In the multimodal screening group compared with the no screening group, fewer were diagnosed with advanced stage disease (195 [75%] of 259 vs 446 [86%] of 520; p=0·0003), more had primary surgery (158 [61%] vs 219 [42%]; p<0·0001), more had zero residual disease following debulking surgery (119 [46%] vs 157 [30%]; p<0·0001), and more received treatment including both surgery and chemotherapy (192 [74%] vs 331 [64%]; p=0·0032). There was no difference in the first-line combination chemotherapy rate (142 [55%] vs 293 [56%]; p=0·69). Median follow-up from randomisation of 779 women with high-grade serous cancer in the multimodal and no screening groups was 9·51 years (IQR 6·04-13·00). At censorship (June 30, 2020), survival from randomisation was longer in women with high-grade serous cancer in the multimodal screening group than in the no screening group with absolute difference in survival of 6·9% (95% CI 0·4-13·0; p=0·042) at 18 years (21% [95% CI 15·6-26·2] vs 14% [95% CI 10·5-17·4]).

INTERPRETATION

To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that screening can detect high-grade serous cancer earlier and lead to improved short-term treatment outcomes compared with no screening. The potential survival benefit for women with high-grade serous cancer was small, most likely due to only modest gains in early detection and treatment improvement, and tumour biology. The cumulative results of the trial suggest that surrogate endpoints for disease-specific mortality should not currently be used in screening trials for ovarian cancer.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, The Eve Appeal.

Insights from UKCTOCS for design, conduct and analyses of large randomised controlled trials

Abstract

Randomised controlled trials are challenging to deliver. There is a constant need to review and refine recruitment and implementation strategies if they are to be completed on time and within budget. We present the strategies adopted in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening, one of the largest individually randomised controlled trials in the world. The trial recruited over 202,000 women (2001-5) and delivered over 670,000 annual screens (2001-11) and over 3 million women-years of follow-up (2001-20). Key to the successful completion were the involvement of senior investigators in the day-to-day running of the trial, proactive trial management and willingness to innovate and use technology. Our underlying ethos was that trial participants should always be at the centre of all our processes. We ensured that they were able to contact either the site or the coordinating centre teams for clarifications about their results, for follow-up and for rescheduling of appointments. To facilitate this, we shared personal identifiers (with consent) with both teams and had dedicated reception staff at both site and coordinating centre. Key aspects were a comprehensive online trial management system which included an electronic data capture system (resulting in an almost paperless trial), biobanking, monitoring and project management modules. The automation of algorithms (to ascertain eligibility and classify results and ensuing actions) and processes (scheduling of appointments, printing of letters, etc.) ensured the protocol was closely followed and timelines were met. Significant engagement with participants ensured retention and low rates of complaints. Our solutions to the design, conduct and analyses issues we faced are highly relevant, given the renewed focus on trials for early detection of cancer.

Future work

There is a pressing need to increase the evidence base to support decision making about all aspects of trial methodology.

Trial registration

ISRCTN-22488978; ClinicalTrials.gov-NCT00058032.

Funding

This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number 16/46/01. The long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015 20) was supported by National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001-14) was funded by the MRC (G9901012 and G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by the MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MC_UU_00004/09, MC_UU_00004/08, MC_UU_00004/07). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, or the UK Department of Health and Social Care.

Mortality impact, risks, and benefits of general population screening for ovarian cancer: the UKCTOCS randomised controlled trial

Background

Ovarian and tubal cancers are lethal gynaecological cancers, with over 50% of the patients diagnosed at advanced stage.

Trial design

Randomised controlled trial involving 27 primary care trusts adjacent to 13 trial centres based at NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Methods

Postmenopausal average-risk women, aged 50-74, with intact ovaries and no previous ovarian or current non-ovarian cancer.

Interventions

One of two annual screening strategies: (1) multimodal screening (MMS) using a longitudinal CA125 algorithm with repeat CA125 testing and transvaginal scan (TVS) as second line test (2) ultrasound screening (USS) using TVS alone with repeat scan to confirm any abnormality. The control (C) group had no screening. Follow-up was through linkage to national registries, postal follow-up questionnaires and direct communication with trial centres and participants.

Objective

To assess comprehensively risks and benefits of ovarian cancer screening in the general population.

Outcome

Primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer as assigned by an independent outcomes review committee. Secondary outcomes included incidence and stage at diagnosis of ovarian and tubal cancer, compliance, performance characteristics, harms and cost-effectiveness of the two screening strategies and a bioresource for future research.

Randomisation

The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants using computer-generated random numbers to MMS, USS and C groups in a 1:1:2 ratio.

Blinding

Investigators and participants were unblinded and outcomes review committee was masked to randomisation group.

Analyses

Primary analyses were by intention to screen, comparing separately MMS and USS with C using the Versatile test.

Results

1,243,282 women were invited and 205,090 attended for recruitment between April 2001 and September 2005.

Randomised

202,638 women: 50,640 MMS, 50,639 USS and 101,359 C group.

Numbers analysed for primary outcome

202,562 (>99.9%): 50,625 (>99.9%) MMS, 50,623 (>99.9%) USS, and 101,314 (>99.9%) C group.

Outcome

Women in MMS and USS groups underwent 345,570 and 327,775 annual screens between randomisation and 31 December 2011. At median follow-up of 16.3 (IQR 15.1-17.3) years, 2055 women developed ovarian or tubal cancer: 522 (1.0% of 50,625) MMS, 517 (1.0% of 50,623) USS, and 1016 (1.0% of 101314) in C group. Compared to the C group, in the MMS group, the incidence of Stage I/II disease was 39.2% (95% CI 16.1 to 66.9) higher and stage III/IV 10.2% (95% CI -21.3 to 2.4) lower. There was no difference in stage in the USS group. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0.6%) MMS, 291 (0.6%) USS, and 619 (0.6%) C group. There was no significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths in either MMS (p = 0.580) or USS (p = 0.360) groups compared to the C group. Overall compliance with annual screening episode was 80.8% (345,570/420,047) in the MMS and 78.0% (327,775/420,047) in the USS group. For ovarian and tubal cancers diagnosed within one year of the last test in a screening episode, in the MMS group, the sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values were 83.8% (95% CI 78.7 to 88.1), 99.8% (95% CI 99.8 to 99.9), and 28.8% (95% CI 25.5 to 32.2) and in the USS group, 72.2% (95% CI 65.9 to 78.0), 99.5% (95% CI 99.5 to 99.5), and 9.1% (95% CI 7.8 to 10.5) respectively. The final within-trial cost-effectiveness analysis was not undertaken as there was no mortality reduction. A bioresource (UKCTOCS Longitudinal Women's Cohort) of longitudinal outcome data and over 0.5 million serum samples including serial annual samples in women in the MMS group was established and to date has been used in many new studies, mainly focused on early detection of cancer.

Harms

Both screening tests (venepuncture and TVS) were associated with minor complications with low (8.6/100,000 screens MMS; 18.6/100,000 screens USS) complication rates. Screening itself did not cause anxiety unless more intense repeat testing was required following abnormal screens. In the MMS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 2.3 (489 false positives; 212 cancers) women in the MMS group had unnecessary false-positive (benign adnexal pathology or normal adnexa) surgery. Overall, 14 (489/345,572 annual screens) underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens. In the USS group, for each screen-detected ovarian or tubal cancer, an additional 10 (1630 false positives; 164 cancers) underwent unnecessary false-positive surgery. Overall, 50 (1630/327,775 annual screens) women underwent unnecessary surgery per 10,000 screens.

Conclusions

Population screening for ovarian and tubal cancer for average-risk women using these strategies should not be undertaken. Decreased incidence of Stage III/IV cancers during multimodal screening did not translate to mortality reduction. Researchers should be cautious about using early stage as a surrogate outcome in screening trials. Meanwhile the bioresource provides a unique opportunity to evaluate early cancer detection tests.

Funding

Long-term follow-up UKCTOCS (2015-2020) - National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR HTA grant 16/46/01), Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal. UKCTOCS (2001-2014) - Medical Research Council (MRC) (G9901012/G0801228), Cancer Research UK (C1479/A2884), and the UK Department of Health, with additional support from The Eve Appeal. Researchers at UCL were supported by the NIHR UCL Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre and by MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL core funding (MR_UU_12023).

Association of hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer: a cohort study within UKCTOCS

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa and ovarian and tubal cancer.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Thirteen NHS Trusts in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

POPULATION

A total of 202 506 postmenopausal women recruited between 2001 and 2005 to the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) and followed up until 31 December 2014.

METHODS

Multiple sources (questionnaires, hospital notes, Hospital Episodes Statistics, national cancer/death registries, ultrasound reports) were used to obtain accurate data on hysterectomy (with conservation of one or both adnexa) and outcomes censored at bilateral oophorectomy, death, ovarian/tubal cancer diagnosis, loss to follow up or 31 December 2014. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer (WHO 2014) on independent outcome review.

RESULTS

Hysterectomy with conservation of one or both adnexa was reported in 41 912 (20.7%; 41 912/202 506) women. Median follow up was 11.1 years (interquartile range 9.96-12.04), totalling >2.17 million woman-years. Among women who had undergone hysterectomy, 0.55% (231/41 912) were diagnosed with ovarian/tubal cancer, compared with 0.59% (945/160 594) of those with intact uterus. Multivariable analysis showed no evidence of an association between hysterectomy and invasive epithelial ovarian/tubal cancer (hazard ratio 0.98, 95% CI 0.85-1.13, P = 0.765).

CONCLUSIONS

This large cohort study provides further independent validation that hysterectomy is not associated with alteration of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer risk. These data are important both for clinical counselling and for refining risk prediction models.

TWEETABLE ABSTRACT

Hysterectomy does not alter risk of invasive epithelial ovarian and tubal cancer.

Cognitive stimulation in the workplace, plasma proteins, and risk of dementia: three analyses of population cohort studies

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between cognitively stimulating work and subsequent risk of dementia and to identify protein pathways for this association.

DESIGN

Multicohort study with three sets of analyses.

SETTING

United Kingdom, Europe, and the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Three associations were examined: cognitive stimulation and dementia risk in 107 896 participants from seven population based prospective cohort studies from the IPD-Work consortium (individual participant data meta-analysis in working populations); cognitive stimulation and proteins in a random sample of 2261 participants from one cohort study; and proteins and dementia risk in 13 656 participants from two cohort studies.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cognitive stimulation was measured at baseline using standard questionnaire instruments on active versus passive jobs and at baseline and over time using a job exposure matrix indicator. 4953 proteins in plasma samples were scanned. Follow-up of incident dementia varied between 13.7 to 30.1 years depending on the cohort. People with dementia were identified through linked electronic health records and repeated clinical examinations.

RESULTS

During 1.8 million person years at risk, 1143 people with dementia were recorded. The risk of dementia was found to be lower for participants with high compared with low cognitive stimulation at work (crude incidence of dementia per 10 000 person years 4.8 in the high stimulation group and 7.3 in the low stimulation group, age and sex adjusted hazard ratio 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.65 to 0.92, heterogeneity in cohort specific estimates I²=0%, P=0.99). This association was robust to additional adjustment for education, risk factors for dementia in adulthood (smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, job strain, obesity, hypertension, and prevalent diabetes at baseline), and cardiometabolic diseases (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke) before dementia diagnosis (fully adjusted hazard ratio 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.68 to 0.98). The risk of dementia was also observed during the first 10 years of follow-up (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval 0.37 to 0.95) and from year 10 onwards (0.79, 0.66 to 0.95) and replicated using a repeated job exposure matrix indicator of cognitive stimulation (hazard ratio per 1 standard deviation increase 0.77, 95% confidence interval 0.69 to 0.86). In analysis controlling for multiple testing, higher cognitive stimulation at work was associated with lower levels of proteins that inhibit central nervous system axonogenesis and synaptogenesis: slit homologue 2 (SLIT2, fully adjusted β -0.34, P<0.001), carbohydrate sulfotransferase 12 (CHSTC, fully adjusted β -0.33, P<0.001), and peptidyl-glycine α-amidating monooxygenase (AMD, fully adjusted β -0.32, P<0.001). These proteins were associated with increased dementia risk, with the fully adjusted hazard ratio per 1 SD being 1.16 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.28) for SLIT2, 1.13 (1.00 to 1.27) for CHSTC, and 1.04 (0.97 to 1.13) for AMD.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of dementia in old age was found to be lower in people with cognitively stimulating jobs than in those with non-stimulating jobs. The findings that cognitive stimulation is associated with lower levels of plasma proteins that potentially inhibit axonogenesis and synaptogenesis and increase the risk of dementia might provide clues to underlying biological mechanisms.

Ovarian cancer population screening and mortality after long-term follow-up in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer continues to have a poor prognosis with the majority of women diagnosed with advanced disease. Therefore, we undertook the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS) to determine if population screening can reduce deaths due to the disease. We report on ovarian cancer mortality after long-term follow-up in UKCTOCS.

METHODS

In this randomised controlled trial, postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years were recruited from 13 centres in National Health Service trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were bilateral oophorectomy, previous ovarian or active non-ovarian malignancy, or increased familial ovarian cancer risk. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS), annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. Follow-up was through national registries. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian or tubal cancer (WHO 2014 criteria) by June 30, 2020. Analyses were by intention to screen, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening using the versatile test. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type, whereas the outcomes review committee were masked to randomisation group. This study is registered with ISRCTN, 22488978, and ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00058032.

FINDINGS

Between April 17, 2001, and Sept 29, 2005, of 1 243 282 women invited, 202 638 were recruited and randomly assigned, and 202 562 were included in the analysis: 50 625 (25·0%) in the MMS group, 50 623 (25·0%) in the USS group, and 101 314 (50·0%) in the no screening group. At a median follow-up of 16·3 years (IQR 15·1-17·3), 2055 women were diagnosed with tubal or ovarian cancer: 522 (1·0%) of 50 625 in the MMS group, 517 (1·0%) of 50 623 in the USS group, and 1016 (1·0%) of 101 314 in the no screening group. Compared with no screening, there was a 47·2% (95% CI 19·7 to 81·1) increase in stage I and 24·5% (-41·8 to -2·0) decrease in stage IV disease incidence in the MMS group. Overall the incidence of stage I or II disease was 39·2% (95% CI 16·1 to 66·9) higher in the MMS group than in the no screening group, whereas the incidence of stage III or IV disease was 10·2% (-21·3 to 2·4) lower. 1206 women died of the disease: 296 (0·6%) of 50 625 in the MMS group, 291 (0·6%) of 50 623 in the USS group, and 619 (0·6%) of 101 314 in the no screening group. No significant reduction in ovarian and tubal cancer deaths was observed in the MMS (p=0·58) or USS (p=0·36) groups compared with the no screening group.

INTERPRETATION

The reduction in stage III or IV disease incidence in the MMS group was not sufficient to translate into lives saved, illustrating the importance of specifying cancer mortality as the primary outcome in screening trials. Given that screening did not significantly reduce ovarian and tubal cancer deaths, general population screening cannot be recommended.

FUNDING

National Institute for Health Research, Cancer Research UK, and The Eve Appeal.

Completeness and accuracy of national cancer and death registration for outcome ascertainment in trials-an ovarian cancer exemplar

BACKGROUND

There is a trend to increasing use of routinely collected health data to ascertain outcome measures in trials. We report on the completeness and accuracy of national ovarian cancer and death registration in the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

METHODS

Of the 202,638 participants, 202,632 were successfully linked and followed through national cancer and death registries of Northern Ireland, Wales and England. Women with registrations of any of 19 pre-defined ICD-10 codes suggestive of tubo-ovarian cancer or notification of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer from hospital episode statistics or trial sites were identified. Copies of hospital and primary care notes were retrieved and reviewed by an independent outcomes review committee. National registration of site and cause of death as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer (C56/C57/C48) obtained up to 3 months after trial censorship was compared to that assigned by outcomes review (reference standard).

RESULTS

Outcome review was undertaken in 3110 women on whom notification was received between 2001 and 2014. Ovarian cancer was confirmed in 1324 of whom 1125 had a relevant cancer registration. Sensitivity and specificity of ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancer registration were 85.0% (1125/1324; 95% CI 83.7-86.2%) and 94.0% (1679/1786; 95% CI 93.2-94.8%), respectively. Of 2041 death registrations reviewed, 681 were confirmed to have a tubo-ovarian cancer of whom 605 had relevant death registration. Sensitivity and specificity were 88.8% (605/681; 95% CI 86.4-91.2%) and 96.7% (1482/1533, 95% CI 95.8-97.6%), respectively. When multiple electronic health record sources were considered, sensitivity for cancer site increased to 91.1% (1206/1324, 95% CI 89.4-92.5%) and for cause of death 94.0% (640/681, 95% CI 91.9-95.5%). Of 1232 with cancer registration, 8.7% (107/1232) were wrongly designated as ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers by the registry and 4.0% (47/1172) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancers were mis-registered. In 656 with death registrations, 7.8% (51/656) were wrongly assigned as due to ovarian/tubal/peritoneal cancers while 6.2% (40/645) of confirmed tubo-ovarian cancer deaths were mis-registered.

CONCLUSION

Follow-up of trial participants for tubo-ovarian cancer using national registry data will result in incomplete ascertainment, particularly of the site due in part to the latency of registration. This can be reduced by using other routinely collected data such as hospital episode statistics. Central adjudication by experts though resource intensive adds value by improving the accuracy of diagnoses.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN: ISRCTN22488978 . Registered on 6 April 2000.

Multi-Marker Longitudinal Algorithms Incorporating HE4 and CA125 in Ovarian Cancer Screening of Postmenopausal Women

Longitudinal CA125 algorithms are the current basis of ovarian cancer screening. We report on longitudinal algorithms incorporating multiple markers. In the multimodal arm of United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS), 50,640 postmenopausal women underwent annual screening using a serum CA125 longitudinal algorithm. Women (cases) with invasive tubo-ovarian cancer (WHO 2014) following outcome review with stored annual serum samples donated in the 5 years preceding diagnosis were matched 1:1 to controls (no invasive tubo-ovarian cancer) in terms of the number of annual samples and age at randomisation. Blinded samples were assayed for serum human epididymis protein 4 (HE4), CA72-4 and anti-TP53 autoantibodies. Multimarker method of mean trends (MMT) longitudinal algorithms were developed using the assay results and trial CA125 values on the training set and evaluated in the blinded validation set. The study set comprised of 1363 (2-5 per woman) serial samples from 179 cases and 181 controls. In the validation set, area under the curve (AUC) and sensitivity of longitudinal CA125-MMT algorithm were 0.911 (0.871-0.952) and 90.5% (82.5-98.6%). None of the longitudinal multi-marker algorithms (CA125-HE4, CA125-HE4-CA72-4, CA125-HE4-CA72-4-anti-TP53) performed better or improved on lead-time. Our population study suggests that longitudinal HE4, CA72-4, anti-TP53 autoantibodies adds little value to longitudinal serum CA125 as a first-line test in ovarian cancer screening of postmenopausal women.

Diagnosis of epithelial ovarian cancer using a combined protein biomarker panel

BACKGROUND

An early detection tool for EOC was constructed from analysis of biomarker expression data from serum collected during the UKCTOCS.

METHODS

This study included 49 EOC cases (19 Type I and 30 Type II) and 31 controls, representing 482 serial samples spanning seven years pre-diagnosis. A logit model was trained by analysis of dysregulation of expression data of four putative biomarkers, (CA125, phosphatidylcholine-sterol acyltransferase, vitamin K-dependent protein Z and C-reactive protein); by scoring the specificity associated with dysregulation from the baseline expression for each individual.

RESULTS

The model is discriminatory, passes k-fold and leave-one-out cross-validations and was further validated in a Type I EOC set. Samples were analysed as a simulated annual screening programme, the algorithm diagnosed cases with >30% PPV 1-2 years pre-diagnosis. For Type II cases (~80% were HGS) the algorithm classified 64% at 1 year and 28% at 2 years tDx as severe.

CONCLUSIONS

The panel has the potential to diagnose EOC one-two years earlier than current diagnosis. This analysis provides a tangible worked example demonstrating the potential for development as a screening tool and scrutiny of its properties. Limits on interpretation imposed by the number of samples available are discussed.

Evaluation of polygenic risk scores for ovarian cancer risk prediction in a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Genome-wide association studies have identified >30 common SNPs associated with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). We evaluated the combined effects of EOC susceptibility SNPs on predicting EOC risk in an independent prospective cohort study.

METHODS

We genotyped ovarian cancer susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a nested case-control study (750 cases and 1428 controls) from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening trial. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were constructed and their associations with EOC risk were evaluated using logistic regression. The absolute risk of developing ovarian cancer by PRS percentiles was calculated.

RESULTS

The association between serous PRS and serous EOC (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.58, p=1.3×10-11) was stronger than the association between overall PRS and overall EOC risk (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.45, p=5.4×10-10). Women in the top fifth percentile of the PRS had a 3.4-fold increased EOC risk compared with women in the bottom 5% of the PRS, with the absolute EOC risk by age 80 being 2.9% and 0.9%, respectively, for the two groups of women in the population.

CONCLUSION

PRSs can be used to predict future risk of developing ovarian cancer for women in the general population. Incorporation of PRSs into risk prediction models for EOC could inform clinical decision-making and health management.

The cost-effectiveness of screening for ovarian cancer: results from the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS)

Background:

To assess the within-trial cost-effectiveness of an NHS ovarian cancer screening (OCS) programme using data from UKCTOCS and extrapolate results based on average life expectancy.

Methods:

Within-trial economic evaluation of no screening (C) vs either (1) an annual OCS programme using transvaginal ultrasound (USS) or (2) an annual ovarian cancer multimodal screening programme with serum CA125 interpreted using a risk algorithm (ROCA) and transvaginal ultrasound as a second-line test (MMS), plus comparison of lifetime extrapolation of the no screening arm and the MMS programme using both a predictive and a Markov model.

Results:

Using a CA125–ROCA cost of £20, the within-trial results show USS to be strictly dominated by MMS, with the MMS vs C comparison returning an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of £91 452 per life year gained (LYG). If the CA125–ROCA unit cost is reduced to £15, the ICER becomes £77 818 per LYG. Predictive extrapolation over the expected lifetime of the UKCTOCS women returns an ICER of £30 033 per LYG, while Markov modelling produces an ICER of £46 922 per QALY.

Conclusion:

Analysis suggests that, after accounting for the lead time required to establish full mortality benefits, a national OCS programme based on the MMS strategy quickly approaches the current NICE thresholds for cost-effectiveness when extrapolated out to lifetime as compared with the within-trial ICER estimates. Whether MMS could be recommended on economic grounds would depend on the confirmation and size of the mortality benefit at the end of an ongoing follow-up of the UKCTOCS cohort.

Novel risk models for early detection and screening of ovarian cancer

PURPOSE

Ovarian cancer (OC) is the most lethal gynaecological cancer. Early detection is required to improve patient survival. Risk estimation models were constructed for Type I (Model I) and Type II (Model II) OC from analysis of Protein Z, Fibronectin, C-reactive protein and CA125 levels in prospectively collected samples from the United Kingdom Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS).

RESULTS

Model I identifies cancers earlier than CA125 alone, with a potential lead time of 3-4 years. Model II detects a number of high grade serous cancers at an earlier stage (Stage I/II) than CA125 alone, with a potential lead time of 2-3 years and assigns high risk to patients that the ROCA Algorithm classified as normal.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This nested case control study included 418 individual serum samples serially collected from 49 OC cases and 31 controls up to six years pre-diagnosis. Discriminatory logit models were built combining the ELISA results for candidate proteins with CA125 levels.

CONCLUSIONS

These models have encouraging sensitivities for detecting pre-clinical ovarian cancer, demonstrating improved sensitivity compared to CA125 alone. In addition we demonstrate how the models improve on ROCA for some cases and outline their potential future use as clinical tools.

Peptides from antibodies to DNA elicit cytokine release from peripheral blood mononuclear cells of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: relation of cytokine pattern to disease duration

Peptides from VH regions of antibodies to DNA drive immune responses in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We studied peptide-induced cytokine release by peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) of patients, the influence of peptide concentration, disease characteristics and HLA-D haplotypes. Cells secreting cytokines (IFNg, IL-2, IL-4 and IL-10) were measured by ELISPOT in PBMC from 31 patients with SLE and 20 matched healthy controls in response to seven peptides (A-G) from the CDR1/FR2 to CDR2/FR3 VH regions of human anti-DNA MAbs. Disease activity was assessed by SELENA-SLEDAI. HLA-DR and -DQ alleles were determined by molecular typing techniques. PBMC from significantly higher proportions of SLE patients than controls responded to VH peptides by generating IFNg and IL-10. Type of cytokines released in response to at least one peptide (D) depended on antigen concentration. Cytokine release was not associated with clinical features of SLE except for disease duration. A shift occurred from IFNg, IL-4 and IL-10 production in early disease to IL-4 and IL-10 in late disease (suggesting increasing TH2-like responses over time). Three peptides (B, D, G) were more stimulatory in the SLE patients than controls. Although none of the peptides was restricted by any particular MHC class II allele, among responders there was increased prevalence of HLA-DQB1 0201 and/or DRB1 0301, alleles known to predispose to SLE. Thus, responses to some VH peptides are more frequent in SLE and vary with disease duration. Increased responses in individuals with HLA class II genotypes that predispose to SLE suggest that peptide presentation by those molecules permits brisker peripheral blood cell responses to autoantibody peptides, thus increasing risk for disease.

Ovarian cancer screening and mortality in the UK Collaborative Trial of Ovarian Cancer Screening (UKCTOCS): a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer has a poor prognosis, with just 40% of patients surviving 5 years. We designed this trial to establish the effect of early detection by screening on ovarian cancer mortality.

METHODS

In this randomised controlled trial, we recruited postmenopausal women aged 50-74 years from 13 centres in National Health Service Trusts in England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Exclusion criteria were previous bilateral oophorectomy or ovarian malignancy, increased risk of familial ovarian cancer, and active non-ovarian malignancy. The trial management system confirmed eligibility and randomly allocated participants in blocks of 32 using computer-generated random numbers to annual multimodal screening (MMS) with serum CA125 interpreted with use of the risk of ovarian cancer algorithm, annual transvaginal ultrasound screening (USS), or no screening, in a 1:1:2 ratio. The primary outcome was death due to ovarian cancer by Dec 31, 2014, comparing MMS and USS separately with no screening, ascertained by an outcomes committee masked to randomisation group. All analyses were by modified intention to screen, excluding the small number of women we discovered after randomisation to have a bilateral oophorectomy, have ovarian cancer, or had exited the registry before recruitment. Investigators and participants were aware of screening type. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00058032.

FINDINGS

Between June 1, 2001, and Oct 21, 2005, we randomly allocated 202,638 women: 50,640 (25·0%) to MMS, 50,639 (25·0%) to USS, and 101,359 (50·0%) to no screening. 202,546 (>99·9%) women were eligible for analysis: 50,624 (>99·9%) women in the MMS group, 50,623 (>99·9%) in the USS group, and 101,299 (>99·9%) in the no screening group. Screening ended on Dec 31, 2011, and included 345,570 MMS and 327,775 USS annual screening episodes. At a median follow-up of 11·1 years (IQR 10·0-12·0), we diagnosed ovarian cancer in 1282 (0·6%) women: 338 (0·7%) in the MMS group, 314 (0·6%) in the USS group, and 630 (0·6%) in the no screening group. Of these women, 148 (0·29%) women in the MMS group, 154 (0·30%) in the USS group, and 347 (0·34%) in the no screening group had died of ovarian cancer. The primary analysis using a Cox proportional hazards model gave a mortality reduction over years 0-14 of 15% (95% CI -3 to 30; p=0·10) with MMS and 11% (-7 to 27; p=0·21) with USS. The Royston-Parmar flexible parametric model showed that in the MMS group, this mortality effect was made up of 8% (-20 to 31) in years 0-7 and 23% (1-46) in years 7-14, and in the USS group, of 2% (-27 to 26) in years 0-7 and 21% (-2 to 42) in years 7-14. A prespecified analysis of death from ovarian cancer of MMS versus no screening with exclusion of prevalent cases showed significantly different death rates (p=0·021), with an overall average mortality reduction of 20% (-2 to 40) and a reduction of 8% (-27 to 43) in years 0-7 and 28% (-3 to 49) in years 7-14 in favour of MMS.

INTERPRETATION

Although the mortality reduction was not significant in the primary analysis, we noted a significant mortality reduction with MMS when prevalent cases were excluded. We noted encouraging evidence of a mortality reduction in years 7-14, but further follow-up is needed before firm conclusions can be reached on the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ovarian cancer screening.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council, Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, The Eve Appeal.

Beta-2-glycoprotein specificity of human anti-phospholipid antibody resides on the light chain: a novel mechanism for acquisition of cross-reactivity by an autoantibody

We have recently shown that the anti-cardiolipin activity of human anti-phospholipid antibody UK4 (lambda) resides on its heavy chain. We now show that UK4 possesses strong reactivity to the plasma-protein beta2-Glycoprotein I (beta2-GPI) also. Utilizing chain shuffling experiments involving an unrelated anti-p185 antibody 4D5 (kappa) with no reactivity to beta2-GPI, we now demonstrate that both the constructs possessing the auto-antibody-derived light chain exhibited significant binding to beta2-GPI. However, the construct possessing UK4 heavy chain in association with 4D5 light chain, exhibited no anti-beta2-GPI activity. Furthermore, there was a low increase (approximately 10%) in the binding of UK4 to cardiolipin in the presence of beta2-GPI. The results demonstrate that anti-beta2-GPI activity resides on UK4 light chain and, importantly, this activity could be transferred to a novel antibody construct via the light chain alone. Computer-generated models of the three-dimensional structures of UK4 and its hybrids, suggest predominant interaction of UK4 light chain with domain IV of beta2-GPI. Molecular docking experiments highlight a number of potential sites on beta2-GPI for interaction of UK4 and indicate as to how beta2-GPI recognition may occur primarily via the autoantibody light chain. The study provides first demonstration of the occurrence of anti-phospholipid and anti-beta2-GPI activities separately on heavy and light chains of an autoantibody. The possible mechanisms that such antibodies may employ to recognise their antigens, are discussed.

Anti-cardiolipin/beta-2 glycoprotein activities co-exist on human anti-DNA antibody light chains

We have recently shown that the human anti-DNA antibodies B3 and 33H11 also bind cardiolipin and that the anti-autoantigen activity resides predominantly on their lambda light chains. We now show that the two auto-antibodies possess strong reactivity to the plasma-protein 2-Glycoprotein I (beta2-GPI) also. Utilizing chain shuffling experiments involving an unrelated anti-p185 antibody 4D5 with insignificant reactivity to cardiolipin or to beta2-GPI, we now demonstrate that hybrid Fabs with constituent light chain, but not the heavy chain, of B3 or 33H11, exhibit anti-cardiolipin activity. Furthermore, the constructs possessing the auto-antibody-derived light chain also exhibited significant reactivity to beta2-GPI. The results suggest that anti-DNA, anti-cardiolipin and anti-beta2-GPI activities co-exist on the light chains of the antibodies studied and, importantly, these activities could be transferred to antibody constructs by their light chains alone. Computer-generated models of the three-dimensional structures of the auto-antibodies and their hybrids, suggest predominant interaction of their light chains with domain IV of beta2-GPI.

Molecular expression systems for anti-DNA antibodies--2

Antibodies to double-stranded DNA are the best-known serological markers of systemic lupus erythematosus, and are closely associated with its renal pathogenesis. How these antibodies recognize DNA is not fully understood. An understanding of the relationship between the functional attributes of an antibody with the three-dimensional structure of its antigen-combining site would allow an insight into the rules that dictate auto-antibody-nucleic acid interaction and consequent pathogenicity of the autoantibody. Data from such studies could assist the development of novel drugs as an approach to specific therapies that can inhibit or disrupt protein-nucleic acid interactions. A full understanding of the binding specificities can be achieved only by experimental determination of detailed three-dimensional structure of these antibodies alone, and of their complexes with specific DNA antigens. A prerequisite of such a study is the ability to produce multimilligram quantities of the antibody protein. However, these antibodies are particularly difficult to express, probably due to their DNA-binding activity. This review attempts to focus on the recent developments on the over-expression of anti-DNA antibody fragments in heterologous cell expression systems and their purification to homogeneity that would in turn allow their structural studies via crystallization.

The role of VH determinants in systemic lupus erythematosus

The V-regions of anti-DNA antibodies contain determinants which can drive the autoimmune in SLE. Most of the evidence comes from murine studies where VH-derived epitopes accelerate the disease process in lupus prone-mice and can elicit mild inflammatory changes reminiscent of lupus in healthy animals. T helper cells reactive with VH peptides arise spontaneously during the disease and are thought to assist production of both anti-peptide antibodies and the generation of autoantibodies that deposit in the glomeruli. In mice stimulatory epitopes may be unique to autoantibodies. As tolerogens VH peptides may delay or diminish the autoimmune response by altering the production of cytokines. An artificial VH peptide, (pCONCENSUS) has been derived and this inhibits responses to VH and other autoantigens but leaves the murine immune system intact and able to generate reponses to external antigens. Limited number of studies of V-region determinants of human anti-DNA MAbs indicate prior sensitization of lupus T cells to VH determinants and that V-region reactive T cells are not deleted in periphery of healthy individuals.

Immunization with a Peptide of Sm B/B′ Results in Limited Epitope Spreading But Not Autoimmune Disease

An experimental model of systemic lupus erythematosus has recently been described in normal animals. We sought to confirm and extend this model, which involved immunization of normal rabbits and mice with a peptide of Sm B/B′, PPPGMRPP. This peptide is an early target of the immune response in anti-Sm-positive patients with lupus. The peptide was used in a multiple Ag peptide format, with multiple copies of PPPGMRPP bound to an inert lysine backbone. New Zealand White rabbits and A/J and C57BL/10ScSn mouse strains were immunized with PPPGMRPP-MAP. Pepscan assays were used to determine the epitope spreading of the anti-PPPGMRPP-MAP response to other octamers of SmB/B′ following immunization. We obtained high titer anti-PPPGMRPP-MAP IgG responses in the New Zealand White rabbits and A/J mice. The rabbits immunized with PPPGMRPP-MAP showed varying degrees of epitope spreading, while the A/J mice showed no spreading. We observed no autoantibodies to dsDNA or other anti-nuclear autoantibodies in our animals by ELISA or immunofluorescence, although anti-nuclear autoantibodies were found by Western blotting in some of the rabbits. No evidence of clinical disease was seen in our normal animals. These data underline the difficulties often associated with the reproduction of animal models in different laboratories.

Immunization with a peptide of Sm B/B' results in limited epitope spreading but not autoimmune disease

An experimental model of systemic lupus erythematosus has recently been described in normal animals. We sought to confirm and extend this model, which involved immunization of normal rabbits and mice with a peptide of Sm B/B', PPPGMRPP. This peptide is an early target of the immune response in anti-Sm-positive patients with lupus. The peptide was used in a multiple Ag peptide format, with multiple copies of PPPGMRPP bound to an inert lysine backbone. New Zealand White rabbits and A/J and C57BL/10ScSn mouse strains were immunized with PPPGMRPP-MAP. Pepscan assays were used to determine the epitope spreading of the anti-PPPGMRPP-MAP response to other octamers of SmB/B' following immunization. We obtained high titer anti-PPPGMRPP-MAP IgG responses in the New Zealand White rabbits and A/J mice. The rabbits immunized with PPPGMRPP-MAP showed varying degrees of epitope spreading, while the A/J mice showed no spreading. We observed no autoantibodies to dsDNA or other anti-nuclear autoantibodies in our animals by ELISA or immunofluorescence, although anti-nuclear autoantibodies were found by Western blotting in some of the rabbits. No evidence of clinical disease was seen in our normal animals. These data underline the difficulties often associated with the reproduction of animal models in different laboratories.

Interplay of four idiotypes and interaction with autoantibodies in lupus patients, their relatives and their spouses

Our aim was to investigate links between systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)-associated autoantibodies, idiotypes (Id) and genetic predisposition to their development. We studied four public Ids (16/6, WRI 176 beta, RT72 and RT84), identified the Km and Gm phenotypes and sought six selected autoantibodies in 32 SLE patients, 174 of their relatives and 15 spouses. Though anti-double-stranded DNA antibody was uncommon in the relatives (9%), the range of antinuclear reactivities was as broad in the relatives as in the probands. Antibodies to the synthetic peptide U1-RNP-A 35-38 were found in 56% of the patients, 28% of their relatives and 20% of the spouses, whereas antibodies to the Golgi apparatus was present in 7% of the patients, 26% of their relatives and 33% of the spouses. However, most of these family members were unaffected. RT84 Id was positively associated with antibodies to Sm-D peptide 1-20 and to Ro/SSA 60 kD peptide 304-324, but negatively associated with anti-dsDNA activity. The median of age was significantly lower in the RT84 Id-positive than in the RT84 Id-negative individuals. These data suggest that genetic as well as environmental factors are involved in the aetiology of SLE. In addition, RT84-carrying immunoglobulins (Ab2) might be directed to one of many cross-reactive Ids of dsDNA-binding antibodies (Ab1), perhaps down-regulating their production.

Functional and modelling studies of the binding of human monoclonal anti-DNA antibodies to DNA

The relationships between the antigen-binding specificities of four human monoclonal anti-DNA antibodies and the structural aspects of the combining sites of two of these were examined. Competition ELISAs were used to examine the reactivities of two IgM MAbs (WRI-176 and RT-79) and two IgG mAbs (D5 and B3) to a wide range of polynucleotides. The mAbs WRI-176 and RT-79 were found to bind predominantly ssDNA, with a preference for poly (dT), whilst D5 and B3 bound components of both ss- and dsDNA, and Z-DNA. The mAb B3 also exhibited a preference for A(T) rich nucleotides. Computer models were generated for the Fv regions of WRI-176 and B3. Models for RT-79 and D5 were not generated as the structure of the long CDR-H3 loops in these mAbs could not be predicted. The B3 combining site contains a groove flanked by three arginines at positions CDR-L1-27A, CDR-L2-54 and CDR-H2-53. Using interactive molecular graphics, B-DNA was docked into the B3 antigen combining site along the plane of the VH/VL interface, whilst Z-DNA was best-fitted at approximately 90 degrees to this direction. The models provide a hypothesis to explain the ability of a single autoantibody to bind two different antigens. In addition, aspects of the base specificity of B3 may be explained. The model of the WRI-176 Fv region revealed a relatively flat surface, on which a large number of hydrophobic and aromatic residues were present. Trp-H52, in particular, is prominent on the surface. This may participate in ssDNA binding through base stacking interactions. The models allow identification of potential targets for site-directed mutagenesis.

Analysis of three new idiotypes on human monoclonal autoantibodies

We have identified and characterised three new idiotypes on human IgM McAbs generated from the splenocytes of a SLE patient with active disease. RT-6, which binds H1 and Sm/RNP, expresses essentially a private Id. Its expression is limited to a small number of human McAbs and the sera from patients with infectious diseases. In contrast RT-72Id and RT-84Id, expressed on McAbs which are polyreactive for two or more antigens, have a public distribution. RT-72Id and RT-84Id are found on McAbs from murine and human adult, and foetal tissues. In sera, significant numbers of SLE, RA and patients with other autoimmune diseases are positive for both Ids. RT-84Id is also elevated in SLE relatives and spouses, and in patients with Klebsiella infection. No correlation with disease activity, IgM or IgG levels was observed with either Id. However, RT-72Id was significantly associated with anti-ssDNA antibodies and RhF. RT-6Id and RT-72Id are located on the framework regions of the mu heavy chain, whereas RT-84Id is present on the kappa light chain, within the binding site. The McAbs are encoded by mainly germline genes: heavy chains of RT-6, RT-72 and RT-84 are encoded by the genes VH26, VH4.22 and VH4.21, respectively, and the light chain sequences of RT-6 and RT-72 are derived from DPL11 and HK102. Immunofluorescent staining revealed the presence of RT-72Id and RT-84Id positive immunoglobulin deposits in 18% and 45%, respectively, of the lupus renal sections compared with none in the disease control group, suggesting that these Ids may contribute to the pathology of the disease.

Suppressive effects of a novel antioxidant compound on human T cell functions in vitro

The use of antioxidant compounds with differing modes of action has clearly demonstrated involvement of oxidative processes in the activation of T lymphocytes. In this paper, we show that a novel antioxidant (lazaroid U75412E, a free radical scavenger) suppressed mitogen-induced T cell proliferation in vitro. Similar results were obtained with diphenylene iodonium (DPI), a known inhibitor of NADPH oxidase. The lazaroid was further shown to inhibit IL 2 production but to be less potent in suppressing IL 2 receptor expression. Thus, scavenger-type antioxidants act on T cells primarily by blocking a signal necessary for the induction of IL 2 synthesis such as the activation of NF kappa B. Furthermore, the potent inhibition of lymphocyte responses caused by the specific enzyme inhibitor DPI provides direct proof of the source of the oxidants involved in these processes.