Impact of Decarceration Plus Alcohol, Substance Use, and Mental Health Screening on Life Expectancies of Black Sexual Minority Men and Black Transgender Women Living With HIV in the United States: A Simulation Study Based on HPTN 061

BACKGROUND

Given the disproportionate rates of incarceration and lower life expectancy (LE) among Black sexual minority men (BSMM) and Black transgender women (BTW) with HIV, we modeled the impact of decarceration and screening for psychiatric conditions and substance use on LE of US BSMM/BTW with HIV.

METHODS

We augmented a microsimulation model previously validated to predict LE and leading causes of death in the US with estimates from the HPTN 061 cohort and the Veteran's Aging Cohort Studies. We estimated independent associations among psychiatric and substance use disorders, to simulate the influence of treatment of one condition on improvement on others. We used this augmented simulation to estimate LE for BSMM/BTW with HIV with a history of incarceration under alternative policies of decarceration (ie, reducing the fraction exposed to incarceration), screening for psychiatric conditions and substance use, or both.

RESULTS

Baseline LE was 61.3 years. Reducing incarceration by 25%, 33%, 50%, and 100% increased LE by 0.29, 0.31, 0.53, and 1.08 years, respectively, versus no reductions in incarceration. When reducing incarceration by 33% and implementing screening for alcohol, tobacco, substance use, and depression, in which a positive screen triggers diagnostic assessment for all psychiatric and substance use conditions and linkage to treatment, LE increased by 1.52 years compared with no screening or decarceration.

DISCUSSION

LE among BSMM/BTW with HIV is short compared with other people with HIV. Reducing incarceration and improving screening and treatment of psychiatric conditions and substance use could substantially increase LE in this population.

Differential Participation, a Potential Cause of Spurious Associations in Observational Cohorts in Environmental Epidemiology

Differential participation in observational cohorts may lead to biased or even reversed estimates. In this article, we describe the potential for differential participation in cohorts studying the etiologic effects of long-term environmental exposures. Such cohorts are prone to differential participation because only those who survived until the start of follow-up and were healthy enough before enrollment will participate, and many environmental exposures are prevalent in the target population and connected to participation via factors such as geography or frailty. The relatively modest effect sizes of most environmental exposures also make any bias induced by differential participation particularly important to understand and account for. We discuss key points to consider for evaluating differential participation and use causal graphs to describe two example mechanisms through which differential participation can occur in health studies of long-term environmental exposures. We use a real-life example, the Canadian Community Health Survey cohort, to illustrate the non-negligible bias due to differential participation. We also demonstrate that implementing a simple washout period may reduce the bias and recover more valid results if the effect of interest is constant over time. Furthermore, we implement simulation scenarios to confirm the plausibility of the two mechanisms causing bias and the utility of the washout method. Since the existence of differential participation can be difficult to diagnose with traditional analytical approaches that calculate a summary effect estimate, we encourage researchers to systematically investigate the presence of time-varying effect estimates and potential spurious patterns (especially in initial periods in the setting of differential participation).

Causal Inference Challenges in the Relationship Between Social Determinants and Cardiovascular Outcomes

The effects of social determinants on cardiovascular outcomes are frequently estimated in epidemiologic analyses, but the profound causal and statistical challenges of this research program are not widely discussed. Here, we carefully review definitions and measures for social determinants of cardiovascular health and then examine the various assumptions required for valid causal inference in multivariable analyses of observational data, such as what one would typically encounter in cohorts, population surveys, health care databases, and vital statistics databases. We explain the necessity of the "well-defined exposure" and show how this goal relates to the "consistency assumption" that is necessary for valid causal inference. Well-defined exposure is especially challenging for social determinants of health because they are seldom simple atomistic interventions that are easily conceptualized and measured. We then review threats to valid inference that arise from confounding, selection bias, information bias, and positivity violations. Other causal considerations are reviewed and explained, such as correct model specification, absence of immortal time, and avoidance of the "Table 2 Fallacy," and their application to social determinants of cardiovascular outcomes are discussed. Fruitful approaches, including focusing on policy interventions and the "target trial" frameworks are proposed and provide a pathway for a more efficacious research program that can more reliably improve population health. Valid causal inference in this setting is quite challenging, but-with clever design and thoughtful analysis-the important role of social factors in patterning cardiovascular outcomes can be quantified and reported.

CanCHD Study of Hematopoietic Cancers in Children With and Without Genetic Syndromes

BACKGROUND

Individuals with genetic syndromes can manifest both congenital heart disease (CHD) and cancer attributable to possible common underlying pathways. To date, reliable risk estimates of hematopoietic cancer (HC) among children with CHD based on large population-based data remain scant. This study sought to quantify the risk of HC by the presence of genetic syndrome among children with CHD.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data sources were the Canadian CHD database, a nationwide database on CHD (1999-2017), and the CCR (Canadian Cancer Registry). Standardized incidence ratios were calculated for comparing HC incidences in children with CHD with the general pediatric population. A modified Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of HC with death as a competing risk. A total of 143 794 children (aged 0-17 years) with CHD were followed up from birth to age 18 years for 1 314 603 person-years. Of them, 8.6% had genetic syndromes, and 898 HC cases were observed. Children with known syndromes had a substantially higher risk of incident HC than the general pediatric population (standardized incidence ratio, 13.4 [95% CI, 11.7-15.1]). The cumulative incidence of HC was 2.44% (95% CI, 2.11-2.76) among children with a syndrome and 0.79% (95% CI, 0.72-0.87) among children without a syndrome. Acute myeloid leukemia had a higher cumulative incidence during early childhood than acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first large population-based analysis documenting that known genetic syndromes in children with CHD are a significant predictor of HC. The finding could be essential in informing risk-stratified policy recommendations for cancer surveillance in children with CHD.

Uncovering the impact of COVID-19 on the place of death of cancer patients in South America

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted healthcare systems worldwide, especially on the management of chronic diseases such as cancer. This study explores the effects of COVID-19 on cancer mortality trends in Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The monthly age-standardized mortality rates in different places of death (hospital/clinic or home) were estimated using vital statistics and death certificate databases. An interrupted time series analysis was performed for each country, using the date of lockdown implementation as the intervention point. Overall cancer mortality rates reduced after the implementation of pandemic restrictions, with a significant decrease in Brazil. In total, 75.3%, 55.4%, and 45.7% of deaths in Brazil, Peru, and Chile, respectively, occurred in hospitals. After lockdowns were implemented, at-home deaths increased in all countries, and in-hospital deaths correspondingly decreased only in Chile. Our results suggest that COVID-19 has significantly affected rates of cancer mortality and place of death in Latin America.

Investigating the Shape and Strength of the Relationship Between Maternal Weight Gain and Gestational Age at Delivery in Twin and Singleton Pregnancies

Both inadequate and excessive maternal weight gain are correlated with preterm delivery in singleton pregnancies, yet this relationship has not been adequately studied in twins. We investigated the relationship between time-varying maternal weight gain and gestational age at delivery in twin pregnancies and compared it with that in singletons delivered in the same study population. We used serial weight measurements abstracted from charts for twin and singleton pregnancies delivered during 1998-2013 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Our exposure was time-varying weight gain z score, calculated using gestational age-standardized and prepregnancy body mass index-stratified twin- and singleton-specific charts, and our outcome was gestational age at delivery. Our analyses used a flexible extension of the Cox proportional hazards model that allowed for nonlinear and time-dependent effects. We found a U-shaped relationship between weight gain z score and gestational age at delivery among twin pregnancies (lowest hazard of delivery observed at z score = 1.2), which we attributed to increased hazard of early preterm spontaneous delivery among pregnancies with low weight gain and increased hazard of late preterm delivery without labor among pregnancies with high weight gain. Our findings may be useful for updating provisional guidelines for maternal weight gain in twin pregnancies.

A brief primer on conducting regression-based causal mediation analysis

OBJECTIVE

We provide an overview of regression-based causal mediation analysis in the field of traumatic stress and guidance on how to conduct mediation analysis using our R package regmedint.

METHOD

We discuss the causal interpretations of the quantities that causal mediation analysis estimates, including total, direct, and indirect effects, especially when the interaction between exposure and mediator is permitted. We discuss the assumptions that must be fulfilled for mediation analyses to validly estimate these causal quantities, discuss suitable study designs for assessing mediation, and describe how causal mediation analysis differs from traditional methods of mediation. To illustrate how to conduct and interpret mediation analysis using our R package regmedint, we use data from a published longitudinal study to assess the extent to which children's externalizing behavior mediates changes in parental negative feelings during the COVID-19 lockdown. We compare the results to those obtained using traditional methods, thus illustrating the importance of accounting for exposure-mediator interaction when an interaction may be present.

RESULTS

When the exposure and the mediator interact, traditional methods can provide estimates of direct and indirect effects that differ from those provided by more flexible causal mediation methods. When the exposure and the mediator do not interact, traditional methods and causal mediation method may estimate similar direct and indirect effects depending on the model specification.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to traditional methods of mediation analysis, regression-based causal mediation methods seek to estimate specific interventional quantities, not mere associations, and the causal methods explicitly allow for exposure-mediator interactions. We recommend using these methods by default rather than using more restrictive traditional methods. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Associations between police harassment and distrust in and reduced access to healthcare among Black sexual minority men: A longitudinal analysis of HPTN 061

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate associations between racialized and homophobia-based police harassment (RHBPH) and healthcare distrust and utilization among Black Sexual Minority Men (BSMM).

METHODS

We utilized data from a longitudinal cohort study from HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 061 with baseline, six and 12 month follow-up assessments. Using multivariable analysis, we evaluated associations between RHBPH and healthcare distrust and utilization reported at the 6 and 12 month visits.

RESULTS

Of 1553 BSMM present at baseline, 1160 were available at six-month follow-up. In multivariable analysis, increasing frequency of RHBPH was associated with increasing levels of distrust in healthcare providers (aOR 1.31, 95% CI: 1.00, 1.74) and missing 50% or more of healthcare visits at six-month follow-up (aOR 1.93, 95% CI: 1.09, 3.43).

CONCLUSIONS

Recent experiences of RHBPH are associated with reduced trust in and access to healthcare among BSMM, with more frequent RHBPH associated with greater vulnerability.

Mediation of the Effect of Incarceration on Selling Sex Among Black Sexual Minority Men and Black Transgender Women in the HPTN 061 Study

Incarceration among Black sexual minority men and Black transgender women (BSMM/BTW) is disproportionately high in the United States. Limited research has documented the disruptive effect of incarceration on sexual networks and sexual partnership exchange among BSMM/BTW. We estimate the influence of incarceration on selling sex and mediating pathways among 1169 BSMM/BTW enrolled in the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 061 cohort to assess this relationship. Mediators investigated were social support, violence, illicit drug use, and distress due to experienced racism and homophobia. During the 6 months following baseline, 14% of the cohort was incarcerated, including 24% of BTW. After adjustment, recent incarceration was associated with 1.57 (95% CI 1.02, 2.42) times the risk of subsequently selling sex. The hypothesized mediators together explained 25% of the relationship, with an indirect effect risk ratio of 1.09 (95% CI 0.97, 1.24). Our results document an association and call for more research investigating mechanisms.

Pregnancy, fetal, and neonatal outcomes after a first booster dose of covid-19 vaccine during pregnancy in Ontario, Canada: population based, retrospective cohort study

Objective

To assess risk of adverse pregnancy, fetal, and neonatal outcomes after a third dose (first booster dose) of covid-19 vaccine during pregnancy among individuals who had completed both doses of primary covid-19 vaccine series before pregnancy.

Design

Population based, retrospective cohort study.

Setting

Ontario, Canada, from 20 December 2021 to 31 August 2022.

Participants

Individuals were included if they were pregnant with an expected date of delivery from 20 December 2021 (start date of third dose eligibility for everyone ≥18 years) to 31 August 2022, who had completed the two doses of primary covid-19 messenger RNA vaccine series before pregnancy, and became eligible for a third dose (≥six months since dose two) before the end of pregnancy.

Main outcome measures

Pregnancy outcomes included hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, placental abruption, caesarean delivery, chorioamnionitis, and postpartum hemorrhage. Fetal and neonatal outcomes included stillbirth, preterm birth, admission to neonatal intensive care unit for >24 h, newborn 5 min Apgar score <7, and small-for-gestational age infant (<10th percentile). We estimated hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for study outcomes, treating dose three as a time varying exposure and adjusting for confounding using inverse probability weighting.

Results

Among 32 689 births, 18 491 (56.6%) were born to individuals who received a third covid-19 dose during pregnancy. Compared with eligible individuals who did not receive a third dose during pregnancy, no increased risks were associated with receiving a third covid-19 vaccine dose during pregnancy for placental abruption (adjusted hazard ratio 0.84 (95% confidence interval 0.70 to 1.02)), chorioamnionitis (0.67 (0.49 to 0.90)), postpartum haemorrhage (1.01 (0.89 to 1.16)), caesarean delivery (0.90 (0.87 to 0.94)), stillbirth (0.56 (0.39 to 0.81)), preterm birth (0.91 (0.84 to 0.99)), neonatal intensive care unit admission (0.96 (0.90 to 1.03)), 5 min Apgar score<7 (0.96 (0.82 to 1.14)), or small-for-gestational age infant (0.86 (0.79 to 0.93)).

Conclusion

Receipt of a third covid-19 vaccine dose during pregnancy was not associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy, fetal, or neonatal outcomes. These findings can help to inform evidence based decision making about the risks and benefits of covid-19 booster doses during pregnancy.

Reevaluating the protective effect of smoking on preeclampsia risk through the lens of bias

Preeclampsia is a hypertensive disorder that is usually diagnosed after 20 weeks' gestation. Despite the deleterious effect of smoking on cardiovascular disease, it has been frequently reported that smoking has a protective effect on preeclampsia risk and biological explanations have been proposed. However, in this manuscript, we present multiple sources of bias that could explain this association. First, key concepts in epidemiology are reviewed: confounder, collider, and mediator. Then, we describe how eligibility criteria, losses of women potentially at risk, misclassification, or performing incorrect adjustments can create bias. We provide examples to show that strategies to control for confounders may fail when they are applied to variables that are not confounders. Finally, we outline potential approaches to manage this controversial effect. We conclude that there is probably no single epidemiological explanation for this counterintuitive association.

Structural determinants explain caries differences among preschool children in Chile's Metropolitan Region

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the association between Social Determinants of Health (structural and intermediate) and caries indicators in Chile's Metropolitan Region preschool children.

METHODS

A multilevel cross-sectional study of Social Determinants of Health (SDH) and caries in children aged 1 to 6 years in Chile's Metropolitan Region was conducted in 2014-2015, with three levels: district, school and child. Caries were assessed by the dmft-index and the prevalence of untreated caries. The structural determinants analyzed were Community Human Development Index (CHDI), urban/rural location, school type, caregiver's education and family income. Poisson multilevel regression models were fit.

RESULTS

The sample size was 2,275 children from 40 schools in 13 districts. While the highest CHDI district had an untreated caries prevalence of 17.1% (12.3-22.7%), in the most disadvantaged district it was 53.9% (95% CI 46.0-61.6%). As family income increased, the probability of untreated caries prevalence decreased (PR = 0.9 95% CI 0.8-1.0). Rural districts had an average dmft-index of 7.3 (95% CI 7.2-7.4), while in urban districts, it was 4.4 (95% CI 4.3-4.5). Higher probabilities of untreated caries prevalence (PR = 3.0 95% CI 2.3-3.9) were observed in rural children. Greater probabilities of untreated caries prevalence (PR = 1.3 95% CI 1.1-1.6) and prevalence of caries experience (PR = 1.3 95% CI 1.1-1.5) were observed in children whose caregivers had a secondary educational level.

CONCLUSIONS

A strong association was observed between the social determinants of health, specifically the structural ones, and the caries indicators studied in children of the Metropolitan Region of Chile. There were notable differences in caries between districts according to social advantage. Rurality and caregiver's education were the most consistent predictors.

Using Parametric g-Computation to Estimate the Effect of Long-Term Exposure to Air Pollution on Mortality Risk and Simulate the Benefits of Hypothetical Policies: The Canadian Community Health Survey Cohort (2005 to 2015)

BACKGROUND

Numerous epidemiological studies have documented the adverse health impact of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter [particulate matter ≤2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] on mortality even at relatively low levels. However, methodological challenges remain to consider potential regulatory intervention's complexity and provide actionable evidence on the predicted benefits of interventions. We propose the parametric g-computation as an alternative analytical approach to such challenges.

METHOD

We applied the parametric g-computation to estimate the cumulative risks of nonaccidental death under different hypothetical intervention strategies targeting long-term exposure to PM2.5 in the Canadian Community Health Survey cohort from 2005 to 2015. On both relative and absolute scales, we explored the benefits of hypothetical intervention strategies compared with the natural course that a) set the simulated exposure value at each follow-up year to a threshold value if exposure was above the threshold (8.8 μg/m3, 7.04 μg/m3, 5 μg/m3, and 4 μg/m3), and b) reduced the simulated exposure value by a percentage (5% and 10%) at each follow-up year. We used the 3-y average PM2.5 concentration with 1-y lag at the postal code of respondents' annual mailing addresses as their long-term exposure to PM2.5. We considered baseline and time-varying confounders, including demographics, behavior characteristics, income level, and neighborhood socioeconomic status. We also included the R syntax for reproducibility and replication.

RESULTS

All hypothetical intervention strategies explored led to lower 11-y cumulative mortality risks than the estimated value under the natural course without intervention, with the smallest reduction of 0.20 per 1,000 participants (95% CI: 0.06, 0.34) under the threshold of 8.8 μg/m3, and the largest reduction of 3.40 per 1,000 participants (95% CI: -0.23, 7.03) under the relative reduction of 10% per interval. The reductions in cumulative risk, or numbers of deaths that would have been prevented if the intervention was employed instead of maintaining the status quo, increased over time but flattened toward the end of the follow-up period. Estimates among those ≥65 years of age were greater with a similar pattern. Our estimates were robust to different model specifications.

DISCUSSION

We found evidence that any intervention further reducing the long-term exposure to PM2.5 would reduce the cumulative mortality risk, with greater benefits in the older population, even in a population already exposed to low levels of ambient PM2.5. The parametric g-computation used in this study provides flexibilities in simulating real-world interventions, accommodates time-varying exposure and confounders, and estimates adjusted survival curves with clearer interpretation and more information than a single hazard ratio, making it a valuable analytical alternative in air pollution epidemiological research. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11095.

Multilevel modelling for measuring interaction of effects between multiple categorical variables: An illustrative application using risk factors for preeclampsia

BACKGROUND

Measuring multiple and higher-order interaction effects between multiple categorical variables proves challenging.

OBJECTIVES

To illustrate a multilevel modelling approach to studying complex interactions.

METHODS

We apply a two-level random-intercept linear regression to a binary outcome for individuals (level-1) nested within strata (level-2) defined by all observed combinations of multiple categorical exposure variables. As a pedagogic application, we analyse 36 strata defined by five risk factors of preeclampsia (parity, previous preeclampsia, chronic hypertension, multiple pregnancies, body mass index category) among 652,603 women in the Swedish Medical Birth Registry between 2002 and 2010.

RESULTS

The absolute risk of preeclampsia was 4% but was predicted to vary from 1% to 44% across strata. The stratum discriminatory accuracy was 30% according to the variance partition coefficient (VPC) and 0.73 according to the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). While the risk heterogeneity across strata was primarily due to the main effects of the categories defining the strata, 5% of the variation was attributable to their two- and higher-way interaction effects. One stratum presented a positive interaction, and two strata presented negative interaction.

CONCLUSIONS

Multilevel modelling is an innovative tool for identifying and analysing higher-order interaction effects. Further work is needed to explore how this approach can best be applied to making causal inferences.

Inequities in ambient fine particulate matter: A spatiotemporal analysis in Canadian communities

BACKGROUND

Exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is associated with adverse health outcomes but communities are not randomly exposed to PM_2.5. Previous cross-sectional environmental injustice analyses in Canada found disproportionately higher exposure to PM_2.5 in low-income populations, visible minorities and immigrants. Beyond static surveillance, it is also important to evaluate how changes in PM_2.5 exposure over time may differentially impact disadvantaged communities. We examine whether communities with different sociodemographic characteristics benefited equitably from the overall decreases in ambient concentrations of PM_2.5 from 2001 to 2016 in Canada.

METHODS

We derived census tract level estimates of average annual PM_2.5 using validated satellite-based estimations of annual average PM_2.5 concentration surfaces. We investigated how the spatial distribution of PM_2.5 has evolved over 15 years (2001-2016) by comparing absolute values and rank percentiles of census tract level annual average PM_2.5 concentrations in 2001 and 2016. Using decennial census data and multivariable linear regression, we determined if sociodemographic characteristics are associated with changes in exposure to PM_2.5, accounting for geographic boundary changes between census periods.

RESULTS

Overall, ambient PM_2.5 concentrations decreased from 2001 (median of 9.1 μg/m³) to 2016 (median of 6.4 μg/m³), with varying provincial patterns. Across communities, ranked census tract specific PM_2.5 in 2001 and in 2016 are highly correlated (Spearman's rho = 0.75). We found that, on average and accounting for provincial differences and baseline PM_2.5, communities with greater density of aboriginal population, lower education, higher shelter-cost-to-income ratio, unemployment or lower income experienced smaller absolute decreases in PM_2.5 from 2001 to 2016.

CONCLUSIONS

Identifying sociodemographic groups that benefit least from decreasing exposure to PM_2.5 highlights the need to consider environmental injustice when designing or revising air pollution policies.

The burden of low back pain and its association with socio-demographic variables in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Low back pain (LBP) is the most common musculoskeletal disorder globally. Providing region- and national-specific information on the burden of low back pain is critical for local healthcare policy makers. The present study aimed to report, compare, and contextualize the prevalence, incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) of low back pain in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by age, sex and sociodemographic index (SDI), from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Publicly available data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The burden of LBP was reported for the 21 countries located in the MENA region, from 1990 to 2019. All estimates were reported as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population, together with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

In 2019, the age-standardised point prevalence and incidence rate per 100,000 in MENA were 7668.2 (95% UI 6798.0 to 8363.3) and 3215.9 (95%CI 2838.8 to 3638.3), which were 5.8% (4.3 to 7.4) and 4.4% (3.4 to 5.5) lower than in 1990, respectively. Furthermore, the regional age-standardised YLD rate in 2019 was 862.0 (605.5 to 1153.3) per 100,000, which was 6.0% (4.2 to 7.7) lower than in 1990. In 2019, Turkey [953.6 (671.3 to 1283.5)] and Lebanon [727.2 (511.5 to 966.0)] had the highest and lowest age-standardised YLD rates, respectively. There was no country in the MENA region that showed increases in the age-standardised prevalence, incidence or YLD rates of LBP over the measurement period. Furthermore, in 2019 the number of prevalent cases were highest in the 35-39 age group, with males having a higher number of cases in all age groups. In addition, the age-standardised YLD rates for males in the MENA region were higher than the global estimates in almost all age groups, in both 1990 and 2019. Furthermore, the burden of LBP was not associated with the level of socio-economic development during the measurement period.

CONCLUSION

The burden attributable to LBP in the MENA region decreased slightly from 1990 to 2019. Furthermore, the burden among males was higher than the global average. Consequently, more integrated healthcare interventions are needed to more effectively alleviate the burden of low back pain in this region.

Global burden of lower respiratory infections during the last three decades

Background

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) cause a substantial mortality, morbidity and economic burden. The present study reported the global, regional and national burden of LRIs and their attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, etiology, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

Methods

Using publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, we reported the incidence, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), due to LRIs. Estimates were presented as counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000 population with their associated uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

Globally, in 2019 there were 488.9 million (95% UI: 457.6 to 522.6) incident cases and 2.4 million (2.3-2.7) deaths due to LRIs. The global age-standardized incidence and death rates for LRIs were 6,295 (5,887.4-6,737.3) and 34.3 (31.1-37.9) per 100,000 in 2019, which represents a 23.9% (22.5-25.4) and 48.5% (42.9-54.0) decrease, respectively since 1990. In 2019, Guinea [12,390.4 (11,495.5-13,332.8)], Chad [12,208.1 (11,289.3-13,202.5)] and India [11,862.1 (11,087.0-12,749.0)] had the three highest age-standardized incidence rates of LRI. Equatorial Guinea [-52.7% (95% UI: -55.8 to -49.3)], Chile [-50.2% (95% UI: -53.4 to -47.0)] and Albania [-48.6% (95% UI: -51.7 to -45.3)] showed the largest decreases from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, a decrease in the incidence rate of LRI was observed at the global level up to the 25-29 age group, then the incidence rates increased with age. The burden of LRIs decreased with increasing SDI at both the regional and national levels. Globally, child wasting (33.1%), household air pollution from solid fuels (24.9%) and a lack of access to handwashing facilities (14.4%) made the largest contributions to the LRI burden in 2019.

Conclusions

Although the burden of LRIs decreased over the period 1990-2019, LRIs still contribute to a large number of incident cases, deaths and DALYs. Preventative programs with a focus on reducing exposure to attributable risk factors should be implemented, especially in less developed countries.

A Causal Mediation Analysis for Investigating the Effect of a Randomized Cash-Transfer Program in Nicaragua

Mediation analysis can be applied to data from randomized trials of health and social interventions to draw causal inference concerning their mechanisms. We used data from a cluster-randomized trial in Nicaragua, fielded between 2000 and 2002, to investigate whether the impact of providing access to a conditional cash-transfer program on child nutritional outcomes was mediated by child health check-ups and household dietary diversity. In a sample of 443 children 6-35 months old, we estimated the controlled direct (CDE) effect of random assignment on measured height-for-age z scores had we intervened so that all children received a health check-up and had the same level of household dietary diversity, using inverse-probability weighted marginal structural models to account for mediator-outcome confounding. Sensitivity analyses corrected the CDE for potential nondifferential error in the measurement of dietary diversity. Treatment assignment increased height-for-age z score by 0.37 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.69) standard deviations. The CDE was 0.20 (95% CI: -0.17, 0.57) standard deviations, suggesting nearly one-half of the program's impact on child nutrition would be eliminated had we intervened on these factors, although estimates were relatively imprecise. This study provides an illustration of how causal mediation analysis can be applied to examine the mechanisms of multifaceted interventions.

The burden of lower respiratory infections and their underlying etiologies in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) cause substantial mortality and morbidity. The present study reported and analysed the burden of LRIs in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, etiology, and socio-demographic index (SDI).

METHODS

The data used in this study were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. The annual incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to LRIs were presented as counts and age-standardised rates per 100,000 population, along with their 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). The average annual percent changes (AAPC) in the age-standardised incidence, death and DALYs rates were calculated using Joinpoint software and correlations (Pearson's correlation coefficient) between the AAPCs and SDIs were calculated using Stata software.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were 34.1 million (95% UI 31.7-36.8) incident cases of LRIs in MENA, with an age-standardised rate of 6510.2 (95% UI 6063.6-6997.8) per 100,000 population. The number of regional DALYs was 4.7 million (95% UI 3.9-5.4), with an age-standardised rate of 888.5 (95% UI 761.1-1019.9) per 100,000 population, which has decreased since 1990. Furthermore, Egypt [8150.8 (95% UI 7535.8-8783.5)] and Afghanistan [61.9 (95% UI 52.1-72.6)] had the highest age-standardised incidence and death rates, respectively. In 2019, the regional incidence and DALY rates were highest in the 1-4 age group, in both females and males. In terms of deaths, pneumococcus and H. influenza type B were the most and least common types of LRIs, respectively. From 1990 to 2019, the burden of LRIs generally decreased with increasing SDI. There were significant positive correlations between SDI and the AAPCs for the age-standardised incidence, death and DALY rates (p < 0.05). Over the 1990-2019 period, the regional incidence, deaths and DALYs attributable to LRIs decreased with AAPCs of - 1.19% (- 1.25 to - 1.13), - 2.47% (- 2.65 to - 2.28) and - 4.21% (- 4.43 to - 3.99), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The LRI-associated burden in the MENA region decreased between 1990 and 2019. SDI had a significant positive correlation with the AAPC and pneumococcus was the most common underlying cause of LRIs. Afghanistan, Yemen and Egypt had the largest burdens in 2019. Further studies are needed to investigate the effectiveness of healthcare interventions and programs to control LRIs and their risk factors.

Associations Between State-Level Changes in Reproductive Health Services and Indicators of Severe Maternal Morbidity

This cross-sectional study examines the legislative, state, economic, and racial factors in increased severe maternal morbidity risk in pregnant individuals.

The Burden of Gout and Its Attributable Risk Factors in the Middle East and North Africa Region, 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

This study reported the burden of gout and its attributable risk factors in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region between 1990 and 2019 by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

METHODS

Data on the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLD) due to gout were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study for the 21 countries in the MENA region, from 1990 to 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, the regional age-standardized point prevalence and annual incidence rates of gout were 509.1 and 97.7 per 100,000 population, which represent a 12% and 11.1% increase since 1990, respectively. Moreover, in 2019 the regional age-standardized YLD rate was 15.8 per 100,000 population, an 11.7% increase since 1990. In 2019, Qatar and Afghanistan had the highest and lowest age-standardized YLD rates, respectively. Regionally, the age-standardized point prevalence of gout increased with age up to the oldest age group, and it was more prevalent among males in all age groups. In addition, there was an overall positive association between SDI and the burden of gout between 1990 and 2019. In 2019, high BMI (46.1%) was the largest contributor to the burden of gout in the MENA region.

CONCLUSION

There were large intercountry variations in the burden of gout, but in general, it has increased in MENA over the last 3 decades. This increase is in line with the global trends of gout. However, the age-standardized YLD rate change was higher in MENA than at the global level.

Chronic Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter Increases Mortality Through Pathways of Metabolic and Cardiovascular Disease: Insights From a Large Mediation Analysis

Background

Long‐term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is the leading environmental risk factor for premature mortality worldwide. Characterizing important pathways through which PM 2.5 increases individuals' mortality risk can clarify the PM 2.5 –mortality relationship and identify possible points of interventions. Recent evidence has linked PM 2.5 to the onset of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, but to what extent these associations contribute to the effect of PM 2.5 on mortality remains poorly understood.

Methods and Results

We conducted a population‐based cohort study to investigate how the effect of PM 2.5 on nonaccidental mortality is mediated by its impacts on incident diabetes, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke. Our study population comprised ≈200 000 individuals aged 20 to 90 years who participated in population‐based health surveys in Ontario, Canada, from 1996 to 2014. Follow‐up extended until December 2017. Using causal mediation analyses with Aalen additive hazards models, we decomposed the total effect of PM 2.5 on mortality into a direct effect and several path‐specific indirect effects mediated by diabetes, each cardiovascular event, or both combined. A series of sensitivity analyses were also conducted. After adjusting for various individual‐ and neighborhood‐level covariates, we estimated that for every 1000 adults, each 10 μg/m 3 increase in PM 2.5 was associated with ≈2 incident cases of diabetes, ≈1 major cardiovascular event (acute myocardial infarction and stroke combined), and ≈2 deaths annually. Among PM 2.5 ‐related deaths, 31.7% (95% CI, 17.2%–53.2%) were attributable to diabetes and major cardiovascular events in relation to PM 2.5 . Specifically, 4.5% were explained by PM 2.5 ‐induced diabetes, 22.8% by PM 2.5 ‐induced major cardiovascular events, and 4.5% through their interaction.

Conclusions

This study suggests that a significant portion of the estimated effect of long‐term exposure to PM 2.5 on deaths can be attributed to its effect on diabetes and cardiovascular diseases, highlighting the significance of PM 2.5 on deteriorating cardiovascular health. Our findings should raise awareness among professionals that improving metabolic and cardiovascular health may reduce mortality burden in areas with higher exposure to air pollution.

Health care services use, stillbirth, and neonatal and infant survival following implementation of the Maternal Health Voucher Scheme in Bangladesh: A difference-in-differences analysis of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data, 2000 to 2016

BACKGROUND

Starting in 2006 to 2007, the Government of Bangladesh implemented the Maternal Health Voucher Scheme (MHVS). This program provides pregnant women with vouchers that can be exchanged for health services from eligible public and private sector providers. In this study, we examined whether access to the MHVS was associated with maternal health services utilization, stillbirth, and neonatal and infant mortality.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used information on pregnancies and live births between 2000 to 2016 reported by women 15 to 49 years of age surveyed as part of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys. Our analytic sample included 23,275 pregnancies lasting at least 7 months for analyses of stillbirth and between 15,125 and 21,668 live births for analyses of health services use, neonatal, and infant mortality. With respect to live births occurring prior to the introduction of the MHVS, 31.3%, 14.1%, and 18.0% of women, respectively, reported receiving at least 3 antenatal care visits, delivering in a health institution, and having a skilled birth attendant at delivery. Rates of neonatal and infant mortality during this period were 40 and 63 per 1,000 live births, respectively, and there were 32 stillbirths per 1,000 pregnancies lasting at least 7 months. We applied a difference-in-differences design to estimate the effect of providing subdistrict-level access to the MHVS program, with inverse probability of treatment weights to address selection into the program. The introduction of the MHVS program was associated with a lagged improvement in the probability of delivering in a health facility, one of the primary targets of the program, although associations with other health services were less evident. After 6 years of access to the MHVS, the probabilities of reporting at least 3 antenatal care visits, delivering in a health facility, and having a skilled birth attendant present increased by 3.0 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) = -4.8, 10.7], 6.5 (95% CI = -0.6, 13.6), and 5.8 (95% CI = -1.8, 13.3) percentage points, respectively. We did not observe evidence consistent with the program improving health outcomes, with probabilities of stillbirth, neonatal mortality, and infant mortality decreasing by 0.7 (95% CI = -1.3, 2.6), 0.8 (95% CI = -1.7, 3.4), and 1.3 (95% CI = -2.5, 5.1) percentage points, respectively, after 6 years of access to the MHVS. The sample size was insufficient to detect smaller associations with adequate precision. Additionally, we cannot rule out the possibility of measurement error, although it was likely nondifferential by treatment group, or unmeasured confounding by concomitant interventions that were implemented differentially in treated and control areas.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that the introduction of the MHVS was positively associated with the probability of delivering in a health facility, but despite a longer period of follow-up than most extant evaluations, we did not observe attendant reductions in stillbirth, neonatal mortality, or infant mortality. Further work and engagement with stakeholders is needed to assess if the MHVS has affected the quality of care and health inequalities and whether the design and eligibility of the program should be modified to improve maternal and neonatal health outcomes.

Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

OBJECTIVE

To report the global, regional, and national burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and its attributable risk factors between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex, and sociodemographic index.

DESIGN

Systematic analysis.

DATA SOURCE

Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Data on the prevalence, deaths, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of COPD, and its attributable risk factors, were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 project for 204 countries and territories, between 1990 and 2019. The counts and rates per 100 000 population, along with 95% uncertainty intervals, were presented for each estimate.

RESULTS

In 2019, 212.3 million prevalent cases of COPD were reported globally, with COPD accounting for 3.3 million deaths and 74.4 million DALYs. The global age standardised point prevalence, death, and DALY rates for COPD were 2638.2 (95% uncertainty intervals 2492.2 to 2796.1), 42.5 (37.6 to 46.3), and 926.1 (848.8 to 997.7) per 100 000 population, which were 8.7%, 41.7%, and 39.8% lower than in 1990, respectively. In 2019, Denmark (4299.5), Myanmar (3963.7), and Belgium (3927.7) had the highest age standardised point prevalence of COPD. Egypt (62.0%), Georgia (54.9%), and Nicaragua (51.6%) showed the largest increases in age standardised point prevalence across the study period. In 2019, Nepal (182.5) and Japan (7.4) had the highest and lowest age standardised death rates per 100 000, respectively, and Nepal (3318.4) and Barbados (177.7) had the highest and lowest age standardised DALY rates per 100 000, respectively. In men, the global DALY rate of COPD increased up to age 85-89 years and then decreased with advancing age, whereas for women the rate increased up to the oldest age group (≥95 years). Regionally, an overall reversed V shaped association was found between sociodemographic index and the age standardised DALY rate of COPD. Factors contributing most to the DALYs rates for COPD were smoking (46.0%), pollution from ambient particulate matter (20.7%), and occupational exposure to particulate matter, gases, and fumes (15.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the decreasing burden of COPD, this disease remains a major public health problem, especially in countries with a low sociodemographic index. Preventive programmes should focus on smoking cessation, improving air quality, and reducing occupational exposures to further reduce the burden of COPD.

Increasing Representation of Epidemiologists From Around the World in the Society for Epidemiologic Research: The Case of Mexico

Mexico has a population of 129 million and is considered one of the most unequal countries in the world, suffering from widespread health disparities. There is a pressing need to strengthen epidemiologic capacity in Mexico, to help solve the complex health problems the country faces and to reduce health inequities. However, the representation of Mexican epidemiologists in the largest epidemiologic society in North America is low, despite the short distance to the United States. In this commentary, we discuss the barriers to higher representation of Mexican epidemiologists within the Society for Epidemiologic Research (SER), including language barriers, costs, and regional necessities. We also discuss opportunities to expand Mexican SER representation and collaboration. Overall, we hope that this is a call towards expanding SER global participation and starting a conversation on a common agenda for epidemiologic research.

Global, Regional and National Burden of Cancers Attributable to High Fasting Plasma Glucose in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019

Background

To report the burden of cancers attributable to high fasting plasma glucose (HFPG) by sex, age, location, cancer type and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) over the period 1990 to 2019 for 204 countries and territories.

Methods

Using the Comparative Risk Assessment approach of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019, the burden of cancers attributable to HFPG was reported in 1990 and 2019.

Results

Globally, in 2019 there were an estimated 419.3 thousand cancer deaths (95% UI: 115.7 to 848.5) and 8.6 million cancer DALYs (2.4 to 17.6) attributable to HFPG. By sex, 4.6 (1.1 to 9.9) and 4.0 (1.1 to 8.4) million global cancer DALYs were attributable to HFPG in men and women, respectively. The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to HFPG (per 100,000) have increased by 27.8% (20.5 to 38.7%) and 24.5% (16.4 to 35.6%), respectively, since 1990. High-income North America (9.5 [2.7 to 18.8]) and Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa (2.0 [0.5 to 4.2]) had the highest and lowest regional age-standardized death rates, respectively, for cancers attributable to HFPG. In 2019, the global number of attributable cancer DALYs were highest in 65-69 age group. Moreover, there was an overall positive association between SDI and the regional age-standardized DALY rate for HFPG-attributable cancers.

Conclusions

HFPG was associated with more burden in 2019. Preventive programs for diabetes and screening of individuals with diabetes for cancers, especially in older males living in developed countries, are required to arrest the large increases in HFPG-attributable cancers.

Burden of tension-type headache in the Middle East and North Africa region, 1990-2019

Introduction

Tension-type headache (TTH) is the most prevalent neurological disorder. As there is a gap in the literature regarding the disease burden attributable to TTH in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, the aim of the present study was to report the epidemiological indicators of TTH in MENA, from 1990 to 2019, by sex, age and socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods

Publicly available data on the point prevalence, annual incidence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were retrieved from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study for the 21 countries and territories in MENA, between 1990 and 2019. The results were presented with numbers and age-standardised rates per 100000 population, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

In 2019, the age-standardised point prevalence and annual incidence rates for TTH in the MENA region were 24504.5 and 8680.1 per 100000, respectively, which represents a 2.0% and a 0.9% increase over 1990-2019, respectively. The age-standardised YLD rate of TTH in this region in 2019 was estimated to be 68.1 per 100000 population, which has increased 1.0% since 1990. Iran [29640.4] had the highest age-standardised point prevalence rate for TTH, while Turkey [21726.3] had the lowest. In 2019, the regional point prevalence of TTH was highest in the 35-39 and 70-74 age groups, for males and females, respectively. Furthermore, the number of prevalent cases was estimated to be highest in those aged 35-39 and 25-29 years, in both males and females, respectively. Moreover, the burden of TTH was not observed to have a clear association with SDI.

Conclusions

While the prevalence of TTH in the MENA region increased from 1990 to 2019, the incidence rate did not change. In addition, the burden of TTH in MENA was higher than at the global level for both sexes and all age groups. Therefore, prevention of TTH would help alleviate the attributable burden imposed on the hundreds of millions of people suffering from TTH around the region.

Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to tobacco smoking in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Cancers are leading causes of mortality and morbidity, with smoking being recognized as a significant risk factor for many types of cancer. We aimed to report the cancer burden attributable to tobacco smoking by sex, age, socio-demographic index (SDI), and cancer type in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

The burden of cancers attributable to smoking was reported between 1990 and 2019, based upon the Comparative Risk Assessment approach used in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019.

RESULTS

Globally, in 2019 there were an estimated 2.5 million cancer-related deaths (95% UI: 2.3 to 2.7) and 56.4 million DALYs (51.3 to 61.7) attributable to smoking. The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to smoking per 100,000 decreased by 23.0% (-29.5 to -15.8) and 28.6% (-35.1 to -21.5), respectively, over the period 1990-2019. Central Europe (50.4 [44.4 to 57.6]) and Western Sub-Saharan Africa (6.7 [5.7 to 8.0]) had the highest and lowest age-standardized death rates, respectively, for cancers attributable to smoking. In 2019, the age-standardized DALY rate of cancers attributable to smoking was highest in Greenland (2224.0 [1804.5 to 2678.8]) and lowest in Ethiopia (72.2 [51.2 to 98.0]). Also in 2019, the global number of DALYs was highest in the 65-69 age group and there was a positive association between SDI and the age-standardized DALY rate.

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study clearly illustrate that renewed efforts are required to increase utilization of evidence-based smoking cessation support in order to reduce the burden of smoking-related diseases.

The Burden of Osteoarthritis in the Middle East and North Africa Region From 1990 to 2019

Objective

We aimed to report the most current data on the prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) associated with osteoarthritis (OA) for the 21 countries and territories located in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex, cause, and sociodemographic index (SDI).

Methods

Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study were used to report the OA-related burden. Estimates are reported as counts and age-standardized rates, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

Results

In 2019, the age-standardized prevalence of OA in MENA was 5,342.8 per 100,000 (95% UI: 4,815.9–5,907.8), which is 9.3% higher than in 1990 (8.1–10.5%). Similarly, the age-standardized annual incidence of OA per 100,000 was 430.4 (382.2–481.9), demonstrating a 9.4% increase since 1990 (8.3–10.5). OA was the cause of 185.4 (92.8–370.2) age-standardized YLDs per 100,000 in 2019, which was 10% higher than in 1990 (8.7–11.4). Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iran had the highest OA burden in MENA, while Yemen, Afghanistan, and Sudan had the lowest burden. In all MENA countries, OA affected more women than men, had an increasing burden with increased age, and had the highest impact on the knee, hip, and hand joints, respectively. OA was also positively associated with the SDI.

Conclusion

The burden of OA increased over 1990–2019 in the MENA region. The study emphasizes the importance of early preventative approaches in order to control any future health, economic, and quality of life crises imposed by OA in this region.

Limitations of Canadian COVID-19 data reporting to the general public

Canadian coronavirus (COVID-19) case statistics reported by governmental bodies and news outlets are central to inform the public and to guide health policy. We searched Canadian governmental and news outlets websites to determine how COVID-19 case statistics were reported to the general public, whether they were reported with appropriate denominators, data sources, and accounted for age, sex, and race or ethnicity. Canadian COVID-19 data reporting practices were found to have limited utility due to varying case definitions, heterogeneous and dynamic testing criteria, lack of appropriate standardization accounting for dynamics, sizes, and characteristics of the populations being tested. Population-wide representative COVID-19 testing should be implemented to enable accurate estimation of the scale and dynamics of the epidemiological situation. Comprehensive COVID-19 data on underrepresented and marginalized populations should be collected and reported in an effort to develop equitable health policies.

Association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and COVID-19 severity: a prospective cohort study

Background:

The tremendous global health burden related to COVID-19 means that identifying determinants of COVID-19 severity is important for prevention and intervention. We aimed to explore long-term exposure to ambient air pollution as a potential contributor to COVID-19 severity, given its known impact on the respiratory system.

Methods:

We used a cohort of all people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, aged 20 years and older and not residing in a long-term care facility in Ontario, Canada, during 2020. We evaluated the association between long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ground-level ozone (O₃), and risk of COVID-19-related hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission and death. We ascertained individuals’ long-term exposures to each air pollutant based on their residence from 2015 to 2019. We used logistic regression and adjusted for confounders and selection bias using various individual and contextual covariates obtained through data linkage.

Results:

Among the 151 105 people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection in Ontario in 2020, we observed 8630 hospital admissions, 1912 ICU admissions and 2137 deaths related to COVID-19. For each interquartile range increase in exposure to PM_2.5 (1.70 μg/m³), we estimated odds ratios of 1.06 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–1.12), 1.09 (95% CI 0.98–1.21) and 1.00 (95% CI 0.90–1.11) for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively. Estimates were smaller for NO₂. We also estimated odds ratios of 1.15 (95% CI 1.06–1.23), 1.30 (95% CI 1.12–1.50) and 1.18 (95% CI 1.02–1.36) per interquartile range increase of 5.14 ppb in O₃ for hospital admission, ICU admission and death, respectively.

Interpretation:

Chronic exposure to air pollution may contribute to severe outcomes after SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly exposure to O₃.

Global, regional, and national cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to alcohol consumption in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Alcohol consumption is a risk factor for a number of communicable and non-communicable diseases, including several types of cancer. This article reports the burden of cancers attributable to alcohol consumption by age, sex, location, sociodemographic index (SDI), and cancer type from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

The Comparative Risk Assessment approach was used in the 2019 Global Burden of Disease study to report the burden of cancers attributable to alcohol consumption between 1990 and 2019.

RESULTS

In 2019, there were globally an estimated 494.7 thousand cancer deaths (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 439.7 to 554.1) and 13.0 million cancer disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; 95% UI, 11.6 to 14.5) that were attributable to alcohol consumption. The alcohol-attributable DALYs were much higher in men (10.5 million; 95% UI, 9.2 to 11.8) than women (2.5 million; 95% UI, 2.2 to 2.9). The global age-standardized death and DALY rates of cancers attributable to alcohol decreased by 14.7% (95% UI, 6.4% to 23%) and 18.1% (95% UI, 9.2% to 26.5%), respectively, over the study period. Central Europe had the highest age-standardized death rates that were attributable to alcohol consumption(10.3; 95% UI, 8.7 to12.0). Moreover, there was an overall positive association between SDI and the regional age-standardized DALY rate for alcohol-attributable cancers.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite decreases in age-standardized deaths and DALYs, substantial numbers of cancer deaths and DALYs are still attributable to alcohol consumption. Because there is a higher burden in males, the elderly, and developed regions (based on SDI), these groups and regions should be prioritized in any prevention programs.

Incarceration and Sexual Risk Behavior and Incident Sexually Transmitted Infection/HIV in HIV Prevention Trials Network 061: Differences by Study City and Among Black Sexual Minority Men Who Have Sex With Men, Black Sexual Minority Men Who Have Sex With Men and Women, and Black Transgender Women

BACKGROUND

Black sexual minority men (BSMM) and Black transgender women face a disproportionate risk of incarceration and sexually transmitted infection (STI)/HIV, yet research on the longitudinal association between incarceration and STI/HIV risk in these groups is limited.

METHODS

We used data from the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 061 study conducted among BSMM and Black transgender women in Atlanta, Boston, Los Angeles, New York City, San Francisco, and Washington, DC, restricting analyses to those who returned for the 6-month follow-up visit when recent incarceration was measured (n = 1169). Using inverse probability of treatment weighting, we measured associations between incarceration and next 6-month multiple partnerships; selling or buying sex; condomless anal intercourse; and incident chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis, and HIV. We explored differences by study city, and among BSMM who had sex with men only, BSMM who had sex with men and women, and Black transgender women.

RESULTS

Approximately 14% reported past 6-month incarceration. Incarceration was associated with next 6-month selling sex (adjusted risk ratio [ARR], 1.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-2.87) in the overall sample and multiple partnerships among BSMM who had sex with men and women (ARR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.10-1.63) and transgender women (ARR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.22-2.57). There is evidence suggesting that incarceration may predict gonorrhea (ARR, 2.35; 95% CI, 0.95-5.77), with particularly strong associations observed in Los Angeles (ARR, 6.48; 95% CI, 1.48-28.38).

CONCLUSIONS

Incarceration may increase STI/HIV risk among BSMM and Black transgender women. Additional mixed-methods research is needed to validate associations and understand pathways.

Gestational Diabetes in Twin Versus Singleton Pregnancies With Normal Weight or Overweight Pre-Pregnancy Body Mass Index: The Mediating Role of Mid-Pregnancy Weight Gain

BACKGROUND

Gestational diabetes might be more common in twin versus singleton pregnancies, yet the reasons for this are unclear. We evaluated the extent to which this relationship is explained by higher mid-pregnancy weight gain within normal weight and overweight pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) strata.

METHODS

We analyzed serial weights and glucose screening and diagnostic data abstracted from medical charts for twin (n = 1397) and singleton (n = 3117) pregnancies with normal or overweight pre-pregnancy BMI delivered from 1998 to 2013 at Magee-Womens Hospital in Pennsylvania. We used causal mediation analyses to estimate the total effect of twin versus singleton pregnancy on gestational diabetes, as well as those mediated (natural indirect effect) and not mediated (natural and controlled direct effects) by pathways involving mid-pregnancy weight gain.

RESULTS

Odds of gestational diabetes were higher among twin pregnancies [odds ratios (ORs) for total effect = 2.83 (95% CI = 1.54, 5.19) for normal weight and 2.09 (95% CI = 1.16, 3.75) for overweight pre pregnancy BMI], yet there was limited evidence that this relationship was mediated by mid-pregnancy weight gain [ORs for natural indirect effect = 1.21 (95% CI = 0.90, 1.24) for normal weight and 1.06 (95% CI = 0.92, 1.21) for overweight pre-pregnancy BMI] and more evidence of mediation via other pathways [ORs for natural direct effect = 2.34 (95% CI = 1.24, 4.40) for normal weight and 1.97 (95% CI = 1.08, 3.60) for overweight pre-pregnancy BMI].

CONCLUSIONS

While twin pregnancies with normal weight or overweight pre-pregnancy BMI experienced higher odds of gestational diabetes versus singletons, most of this effect was explained by pathways not involving mid-pregnancy weight gain.

Prevalence, Deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years Due to Asthma and Its Attributable Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019

BACKGROUND

Understanding global trends in the point prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for asthma will facilitate evidence-based decision-making.

RESEARCH QUESTION

What are the global, regional, and national burdens of asthma in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019 by age, sex, and sociodemographic index (SDI)?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease study from 1990 through 2019 were used. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardized rates per 100,000, along with their associated uncertainty intervals.

RESULTS

In 2019, the global age-standardized point prevalence and death rates for asthma were 3,415.5 and 5.8 per 100,000, which represent a 24% and 51.3% decrease since 1990, respectively. Moreover, in 2019, the global age-standardized DALY rate was 273.6 and the global point prevalence of asthma was highest in the group 5 to 9 years of age. Also in 2019, the United States (10,399.3) showed the highest age-standardized point prevalence rate of asthma. Generally, the burden of asthma decreased with increasing SDI. Globally, high BMI (16.9%), smoking (9.9%), and occupational asthmagens (8.8%) contributed to the 2019 asthma DALYs.

INTERPRETATION

Asthma remains an important public health issue, particularly in regions with low socioeconomic development. Future research is needed to examine thoroughly the associations asthma has with its risk factors and the factors impeding optimal self-management. Further research also is needed to understand and implement better the interventions that have reduced the burden of asthma.

Global, regional, and national burden of cancers attributable to excess body weight in 204 countries and territories, 1990 to 2019

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to report the level and trends of 13 cancers that are attributable to excess body weight (EBW) for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Using publicly available data, the burden of cancers attributable to EBW was reported from 1990 to 2019 based on the comparative risk assessment approach used in the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. [Correction added on 27 January 2022, after first online publication: 'Using publicly available data,' has been added before the first sentence and 'estimated' was corrected to 'reported'.] RESULTS: In 2019, EBW caused 11.2 million disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), or 4.4% of all cancer-related DALYs. Between 1990 and 2019, the global EBW-attributable age-standardized cancer DALY rates (per 100,000) increased from 109.9 to 133.9, a relative increase of 21.9%. The age-standardized DALY rates (per 100,000) of cancers attributable to EBW in 2019 were highest and lowest in Mongolia (611.8) and Bangladesh (30.2), respectively. The 60- to 64-year age group had the highest number of DALYs attributable to EBW, whereas there were no large sex differences in the cancer-related burden attributable to EBW. Furthermore, the association between the age-standardized DALY rates and the sociodemographic index was generally positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall, the EBW-attributable burden of cancers has increased in the past three decades. Public health efforts should focus on identifying appropriate preventive interventions at the population and individual levels, especially in the regions and countries with the highest burden.

Does weight mediate the effect of smoking on coronary heart disease? Parametric mediational g-formula analysis

Background

In settings in which there are time-varying confounders affected by previous exposure and a time-varying mediator, natural direct and indirect effects cannot generally be estimated unbiasedly. In the present study, we estimate interventional direct effect and interventional indirect effect of cigarette smoking as a time-varying exposure on coronary heart disease while considering body weight as a time-varying mediator.

Methods

To address this problem, the parametric mediational g-formula was proposed to estimate interventional direct effect and interventional indirect effect. We used data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis to estimate effect of cigarette smoking on coronary heart disease, considering body weight as time-varying mediator.

Results

Over a 11-years period, smoking 20 cigarettes per day compared to no smoking directly (not through weight) increased risk of coronary heart disease by an absolute difference of 1.91% (95% CI: 0.49%, 4.14%), and indirectly decreased coronary heart disease risk by -0.02% (95% CI: -0.05%, 0.04%) via change in weight. The total effect was estimated as an absolute 1.89% increase (95% CI: 0.49%, 4.13%).

Conclusion

The overall absolute impact of smoking to incident coronary heart disease is modest, and we did not discern any important contribution to this effect relayed through changes to bodyweight. In fact, changes in weight because of smoking have no meaningful mediating effect on CHD risk.

Differences in birthweight by maternal and paternal nativity status in Canada

BACKGROUND

Parental nativity, as well as duration of residence of foreign-born parents in the host country, has been shown to be associated with size at birth. However, most studies have focused on maternal nativity status only and have not accounted for important characteristics of both parents.

OBJECTIVE

To explore whether maternal and paternal nativity and length of residence (LOR) are independently associated with birthweight for gestational age in a representative sample of infants in Canada.

METHODS

We compared mean differences in sex- and gestational age-standardised birthweight z-score by nativity status of both parents in a nationally representative sample of 130,532 singleton infants born between May 2004 and May 2006 to mothers residing in Canada. We categorised parental nativity status into four groups (both parents Canada-born, mother only foreign-born, father only foreign-born and both parents foreign-born) and parents' LOR into three (both ≤10 years, only one parent ≤10 years and both >10 years). We estimated mean differences in birthweight z-score and their 95% confidence intervals in linear regression models adjusted for parity, parents' ages, education, ethnicity and marital status of the mother.

RESULTS

Compared with babies of Canada-born couples, those of two foreign-born parents had on average smaller birthweight z-score, -0.23 (95% CI -0.28, -0.25). However, after adjustment, the mean difference in z-score was -0.02 (95% CI -0.05, 0.00). Infants born to parents who had both resided in Canada for ≤10 years had a unadjusted mean difference in z-score of -0.27 (95% CI -0.29, -0.26), compared infants whose parents were both Canada-born, but the difference became negligible (-0.02, 95% CI -0.04, 0.01) after adjustment.

CONCLUSION

The birthweight differences by parental nativity or length of residence observed in our study population could be attributed to differences in the distribution of other parental characteristics that affect birthweight.

Prevalence, Deaths and Disability-Adjusted-Life-Years (DALYs) Due to Type 2 Diabetes and Its Attributable Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2019: Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

AIM

To report the point prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted-life-years (DALYs) due to type 2 diabetes and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories during the period 1990-2019.

METHODS

We used the data of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 to report number and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population of type 2 diabetes. Estimates were reported with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).

RESULTS

In 2019, the global age-standardised point prevalence and death rates for type 2 diabetes were 5282.9 and 18.5 per 100 000, an increase of 49% and 10.8%, respectively, since 1990. Moreover, the global age-standardised DALY rate in 2019 was 801.5 per 100 000, an increase of 27.6% since 1990. In 2019, the global point prevalence of type 2 diabetes was slightly higher in males and increased with age up to the 75-79 age group, decreasing across the remaining age groups. American Samoa [19876.8] had the highest age-standardised point prevalence rates of type 2 diabetes in 2019. Generally, the burden of type 2 diabetes decreased with increasing SDI (Socio-demographic Index). Globally, high body mass index [51.9%], ambient particulate matter pollution [13.6%] and smoking [9.9%] had the three highest proportions of attributable DALYs.

CONCLUSION

Low and middle-income countries have the highest burden and greater investment in type 2 diabetes prevention is needed. In addition, accurate data on type 2 diabetes needs to be collected by the health systems of all countries to allow better monitoring and evaluation of population-level interventions.

Burden of ischemic heart disease and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019

AIMS

To report the prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with ischemic heart disease (IHD) and its attributable risk factors in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019, by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Ischemic heart disease was defined as acute myocardial infarction (MI) and chronic IHD (angina; asymptomatic IHD following MI). Cause of death ensemble modelling was used to produce fatality estimates. The prevalence of the non-fatal sequalae of IHD was estimated using DisMod MR 2.1. All estimates were presented as counts and age-standardized rates per 100 000 population. In 2019, IHD accounted for 197.2 million (177.7-219.5) prevalent cases, 9.1 million (8.4-9.7) deaths, and 182.0 million (170.2-193.5) DALYs worldwide. There were decreases in the global age-standardized prevalence rates of IHD [-4.6% (-5.7, -3.6)], deaths [-30.8% (-34.8, -27.2)], and DALYs [-28.6% (-33.3, -24.2)] from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the global prevalence and death rates of IHD were higher among males across all age groups, while the death rate peaked in the oldest group for both sexes. A negative association was found between the age-standardized DALY rates and SDI. Globally, high systolic blood pressure (54.6%), high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (46.6%), and smoking (23.9%) were the three largest contributors to the DALYs attributable to IHD.

CONCLUSION

Although the global age-standardized prevalence, death, and DALY rates all decreased. Prevention and control programmes should be implemented to reduce population exposure to risk factors, reduce the risk of IHD in high-risk populations, and provide appropriate care for communities.

Evaluating the Impact and Rationale of Race-Specific Estimations of Kidney Function: Estimations from U.S. NHANES, 2015-2018

BACKGROUND

Standard equations for estimating glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) employ race multipliers, systematically inflating eGFR for Black patients. Such inflation is clinically significant because eGFR thresholds of 60, 30, and 20 ml/min/1.73m2 guide kidney disease management. Racialized adjustment of eGFR in Black Americans may thereby affect their clinical care. In this study, we analyze and extrapolate national data to assess potential impacts of the eGFR race adjustment on qualification for kidney disease diagnosis, nephrologist referral, and transplantation listing.

METHODS

Using population-representative cross-sectional data from the United States National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2015-2018, eGFR values for Black Americans were calculated using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) equation with and without the 1.21 race-specific coefficient using cohort data on age, sex, race, and serum creatinine.

FINDINGS

Without the MDRD eGFR race adjustment, 3.3 million (10.4%) more Black Americans would reach a diagnostic threshold for Stage 3 Chronic Kidney Disease, 300,000 (0.7%) more would qualify for beneficial nephrologist referral, and 31,000 (0.1%) more would become eligible for transplant evaluation and waitlist inclusion.

INTERPRETATION

These findings suggest eGFR race coefficients may contribute to racial differences in the management of kidney. We provide recommendations for addressing this issue at institutional and individual levels.

FUNDING

No external funding was received for this study.

Burden of anemia and its underlying causes in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background

Anemia is a common disease which affects around 40% of children and 30% of reproductive age women and can have major health consequences. The present study reports the global, regional and national burden of anemia and its underlying causes between 1990 and 2019, by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI).

Methods

Publicly available data on the point prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were retrieved from the global burden of disease (GBD) 2019 study for 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019. The point prevalence, YLD counts and rates per 100,000 population were presented, along with their corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals.

Results

In 2019, the global age-standardized point prevalence and YLD rates for anemia were 23,176.2 (22,943.5–23,418.6) and 672.4 (447.2–981.5) per 100,000 population, respectively. Moreover, the global age-standardized point prevalence and YLD rate decreased by 13.4% (12.1–14.5%) and 18.8% (16.9–20.8%), respectively, over the period 1990–2019. The highest national point prevalences of anemia were found in Zambia [49327.1 (95% UI: 46,838.5–51,700.1)], Mali [46890.1 (95% UI: 44,301.1–49,389.8)], and Burkina Faso [46117.2 (95% UI: 43,640.7–48,319.2)]. In 2019, the global point prevalence of anemia was highest in the 15–19 and 95+ age groups in females and males, respectively. Also, the burden of anemia was lower in regions with higher socio-economic development. Globally, most of the prevalent cases were attributable to dietary iron deficiency, as well as hemoglobinopathies and hemolytic anemias.

Conclusions

Anemia remains a major health problem, especially among females in less developed countries. The implementation of preventive programs with a focus on improving access to iron supplements, early diagnosis and the treatment of hemoglobinopathies should be taken into consideration.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13045-021-01202-2.

Effects of 2019's social protests on emergency health services utilization and case severity in Santiago, Chile: a time-series analysis

Background

On October 18th, 2019, protestors gathered across Chile to call for social equity, resulting in widespread civil unrest and violent confrontation with the police. In this study, we quantify the effects of the 2019 Chilean protests on emergency health services utilization and inpatient admission in Santiago.

Methods

We used weekly emergency department (ED) admissions (2015-2019) from three large public hospitals near the focal point of protests in Santiago. The exposure period was from October 18th to December 31st, 2019. The outcomes were the number of weekly consultations and hospitalizations by trauma and respiratory causes and the proportion of hospitalizations among consultants per 1,000. We implemented Bayesian structural time series models to calculate the absolute and relative effects and 95% credible intervals (CrI).

Findings

During the first ten weeks of protests ED consultations declined on average by 14% for trauma (95%CrI: -40·2%, 11·5%) and 30% for respiratory causes (95%CrI: -89·4%, 30·2%), 7% for respiratory hospitalizations (95%CrI: -43·6%, 30·8%); however, none of these three results were statistically distinguishable from the null. Trauma hospitalizations, on the other hand, increased by 15% (95%CrI: 4·0%, 26·4%), and the proportion of hospitalizations per consultations increased by 40% for trauma (95%CrI: 13·1%, 68·0%) and 59% for respiratory causes (95%CrI: 29·4%, 87·9%).

Interpretation

The 2019 Chilean protests affected the use of emergency health services by increasing the trauma hospitalizations and the case hospitalization ratio per 1,000 consultations for trauma and respiratory causes. Crowd-control protocols must be reviewed to prevent the negative effects of civil unrest.