Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021.

METHODS

The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk-outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk-outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk-outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk-outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws.

FINDINGS

Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7-9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4-9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7-6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8-6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8-6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0-4 years and 5-14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9-27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5-28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3-56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9-21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3-12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6-1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1-1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4-78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2-72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP).

INTERPRETATION

Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Comparing vitamin D receptor gene polymorphisms in rs11568820, rs7970314, rs4334089 between COVID-19 patients with mild and severe symptoms: a case control study

The associations of vitamin D receptor (VDR)- single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with the symptoms of COVID-19 may vary between patients with different severities of COVID-19. Therefore, in the present study, we aim to compare VDR polymorphisms in severe and mild COVID-19 patients. In this study, a total number of 85 hospitalized patients and 91 mild/moderate patients with COVID-19 were recruited. SNPs in VDR genes were determined using ARMS and then confirmed by sanger sequencing. The mean (SD) age of participants in hospitalized and non-hospitalized group was 59.0 (12.4) and 47.8 (14.8) years, respectively. Almost 46% of participants in hospitalized and 48% of participant in non-hospitalized group were male. The frequency of TT genotype of SNP rs11568820 was significantly lower in hospitalized than non-hospitalized group (3.5% vs. 17.6%; P = 0.018). However, there was no significant differences between genotypes of SNPs rs7970314 and rs4334089 and also alleles frequencies in all SNPs of two groups. The genotype of rs11568820 SNP had an inverse association with hospitalization of patients with COVID-19 after adjustment for comorbidities [OR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04, 0.88; P = 0.034]. While, there was no relationship between genotypes of SNPs rs7970314 and rs4334089 and hospitalization. The TT genotype of rs11568820 plays protective role in sever COVID-19 and hospitalization. Further studies with a large sample size which consider various confounding factors are warranted to confirm our results.

The relationship between fermented and nonfermented dairy products consumption and hypertension among premature coronary artery disease patients: Iran premature coronary artery disease study

Dairy products may affect hypertension (HTN) risk. The aim of this study was to examine the association between fermented and nonfermented dairy foods and HTN in a sample of premature coronary artery disease (PCAD) subjects. This cross-sectional study was performed on 1854 PCAD patients. A 110-item food frequency questionnaire was used to assess dietary intakes. HTN was considered if systolic blood pressure was 140 mmHg and higher and/or diastolic blood pressure was 90 mmHg and higher. The odds ratio of HTN across the quartiles of different types of dairy products was evaluated by binary logistic regression. The mean (SD) of dairy products consumption was 339.8 (223.5) g/day, of which 285.4 g/day was fermented dairy products. In the crude model, participants in the fourth quartile of fermented dairy products had lesser risk of HTN compared to the bottom quartile (OR = 0.70, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.96; p for trend = .058). However, after considering the possible confounders, the significance disappeared. Subjects in the top quartile of high-fat fermented dairy products had 34% lower risk for HTN compared to the bottom quartile (95% CI: 0.49, 0.88; p for trend < .001). Adjustment for potential risk factors weakened the association but remained significant (OR = 0.73, 95% CI: 0.53, 1.01; p for trend = .001). Nonsignificant relation was detected between low-fat fermented, low-fat nonfermented, and high-fat nonfermented dairy products and HTN. Moderate consumption of high-fat fermented dairy products, in a population with low consumption of dairy foods, might relate to reduced likelihood of HTN.

Association of obesity and the clinical course of hospitalised COVID-19 survivors

Obesity is a risk factor for chronic inflammation and severe pulmonary infections. This study aimed to assess the association between obesity and the clinical courses of hospitalised COVID-19 survivors. This cross-sectional study used the Isfahan COVID Cohort (ICC) baseline data. The ICC is an ongoing, 5-year prospective, longitudinal cohort study conducted on hospitalised COVID-19 survivors in affiliated hospitals of the Medical University of Isfahan (MUI), Iran. Patients aged 19 and over throughout Isfahan County were recruited using a consecutive sampling method 1 month after discharge. Demographic and basic characteristics, symptoms and clinical features of these patients were collected and analysed. A total of 3843 hospitalised patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. Regarding the body mass index classification in the general obesity group, the patients with overweight and obesity had more extended hospitalisation and a higher frequency of low O2 saturation compared to the normal weight patients, and the highest frequency of low O2 saturation and more extended hospitalisation was observed in patients with obesity (5.9 ± 3.8 vs. 6.8 ± 5.4 vs. 7.1 ± 5.3, respectively; p = .001 and 59% vs. 64.5% vs. 65.5%; p < .001). Furthermore, individuals with abdominal obesity had a significantly longer duration of hospitalisation compared to the non-abdominal obesity group (6.3 ± 4.6 vs. 7.0 ± 5.3; p < .001). In the fully adjusted model, a significant association was observed between abdominal obesity and an increased occurrence of low oxygen saturation compared to general obesity (odds ratio: 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.03-1.44). Obesity was associated with more extended hospitalisation and hypoxia in patients with COVID-19. However, no significant relationship was found between obesity and other clinical courses.

Reply to Letter to the editor regarding "The effect of pistachio supplementation on metabolic syndrome and its components in adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials"

Two researchers (F.B and S.K.F.-P.) reviewed the abstracts and titles of all of the acknowledged research to determine whether it was eligible for inclusion in the present meta-analysis according to the inclusion criteria. The authors included all of the relevant available data from 17 articles on interventional studies. Regarding the objection raised about the effect size calculation, the inclusion of the various effect sizes from 1 study is a routine approach used in numerous meta-analyses, and their inclusion in the study did not impair the accuracy of the findings. The included studies were homogeneous in terms of intervention, outcomes, and participants, and the high rate of heterogeneity between the included studies for the majority of the study outcomes may have derived from the different characteristics of the participant populations, especially differences in their health status. As no study included in the review reported the correlation coefficient between the placebo conditions and the experimental conditions, the authors reanalyzed the data by inputting a moderate correlation coefficient of 0.5. Our study showed that pistachio consumption has a positive effect in terms of reducing the components of metabolic syndrome. In conclusion, this study reanalyzed the data and justified the methods used for showing the positive effect of pistachio consumption on metabolic syndrome components, and the potential for further research to identify the underlying mechanisms and the effects on various populations. The study's protocol was registered, and Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software was used in the statistical analyses. The authors recommend further research to investigate the potential effect of the consumption of pistachios. Systematic Review Registration: PROSPERO registration no. CRD42021285424.

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

BACKGROUND

Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories.

METHODS

We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5-19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For school-aged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median).

FINDINGS

From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness.

INTERPRETATION

The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesity.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation (Research England), UK Research and Innovation (Innovate UK), and European Union.

The effect of a health belief model-based education on nutritional behavior and biochemical factors of patients with myocardial infarction: A line follow-up experimental study

Background and Aim

Myocardial infarction is a common cause of hospitalization, and nutritional behaviors are risk factors in such patients. The present study aimed to determine the effect of education based on the health belief model on nutritional behavior and indices in patients with myocardial infarction.

Methods

The present experimental study examined patients with myocardial infarction in 2021. Seventy-two patients with myocardial infarction were randomly divided into intervention and control groups. The intervention group received educational interventions based on the health belief model in four 60-min sessions for 3 months. The constructs of the health belief model, nutritional behavior, and indices were measured using a valid questionnaire before, 1, and 3 months after the intervention. At the end, the study data was analyzed using SPSS version 22 software.

Results

There was a significant difference between the two groups in the mean scores of knowledge, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, self-efficacy, nutritional behaviors, and body mass index after the intervention (p < 0.05); however, no significant difference was found in the field of perceived barriers (p > 0.05). Biochemical factors also had a significant difference after the intervention (p < 0.05).

Conclusion

Educational intervention based on the health belief model is effective for myocardial infarction patients and has a significant impact on the constructs of perceived sensitivity, perceived intensity, perceived benefits, and self-efficacy as well as biochemical factors, so it can be used to improve the nutritional status of patients suffered from a myocardial infarction.

Burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME) region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study

OBJECTIVE

The geographical differences in incidence rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) and its burden due to modifiable risk factors warrant investigating the CRC burden and its risk factors in different regions. In the current study, we aimed to estimate the burden of CRC and the share of its risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East (NAME), from 1990 to 2019.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

The rates of incidence, prevalence, death, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC were estimated through the framework of the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019 by age, sex, between 1990 and 2019. The CRC-related DALYs attributable to each lifestyle and metabolic risk factor was also estimated through a comparative risk assessment approach.

RESULTS

In NAME region, the trends of incidence, prevalence, death, YLL, YLD, and DALYs of CRC were increasing, with higher rates in males than females over this period. High and high-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) countries had greater CRC DALYs rate compared with middle- and low-SDI countries in 2019, except for Palestine [434.66 (95% UI: 368.82, 503.88)]. In NAME region, like the global, dietary risk (33.18%), low whole grain intake (19.79%), and low intake of milk (15.77%) were the major contributing risk factors to DALYs due to CRC in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Due to increasing trend of CRC burden and the considerable role of lifestyle and metabolic factors in its burden in NAME region, implementing fundamental strategies to minimize CRC burden and its risk factors is imperative.

Association of triglyceride glucose index with cardiovascular events: insights from the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS)

BACKGROUND

There is limited evidence regarding the evaluation of the association between the triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, an indicator of insulin resistance, and the incident risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Therefore, we aimed to examine the relationship between the TyG index and CVD incidence in a cohort of Iranian adults.

METHODS

This study was performed in the framework of the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS). The study population included 5,432 individuals aged ≥ 35 years. CVD events, including acute myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and unstable angina (UA), were diagnosed by physicians. The TyG index was calculated as Ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting plasma glucose (mg/dL)/2]. The relationship between the TyG index and CVD events was investigated using Cox regression models. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve analysis was used to determine the best cut-off for the TyG index for predicting CVD outcomes.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up period of 11.2 years, a total number of 819 CVD, 164 MI, 172 stroke, and 384 UA were recorded. Following adjustment for multiple confounders, elevated TyG levels were associated with a higher risk of CVD (HR = 1.48; 95% CI 1.22-1.79; p < 0.001), MI (HR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.42-3.52; p < 0.001), stroke (HR = 1.45; 95% CI 0.96-2.19; p = 0.042), but not UA (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 0.96-1.69). The optimal TyG index cut-off was 8.91 for predicting CVD (sensitivity 58%; specificity 58%), 9.04 for predicting MI (sensitivity 57%; specificity 65%), 8.92 for predicting stroke (sensitivity 57%; specificity 57%), and 8.98 for predicting UA (sensitivity 53%; specificity 61%).

CONCLUSION

We found a robust, direct association between the TyG index and the incidence of CVD events. This emphasizes the significance of observing the TyG index as an indicator of the occurrence of CVD events.

Self-rated health and its determinants in patients with hypertension in Isfahan in 2019

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Self-rated health (SRH) serves as an assessment of contentment regarding one's social, mental, and physical well-being and has been linked to both cardiovascular mortality and morbidity. Nonetheless, the relationship between SRH and medical outcomes in individuals with hypertension unsettled. This research endeavors to pinpoint the determinants that affect SRH in Iranian patients with hypertension.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study took place in Isfahan, Iran, from November 2018 to August 2019 and involved 886 patients with essential HTN. The data collection methods included a checklist for demographic information and risk factors, blood pressure measurements (systolic and diastolic), the Persian version of the 8-Item Morisky Medication Adherence scale, and a self-rated health questionnaire recommended by the World Health Organization. Independent sample T-test and chi squared test were used for comparison of variables between two groups of SRH. Additionally, multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the factors influencing self-rated health status.

RESULTS

Among 886 participants (mean age 57.8 ± 8.8 years, 71.9% women), 89.62% reported good SRH. Comorbid conditions were significantly associated with poorer SRH (p < 0.05). Notably, higher education (odd ratio (OR) = 1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13-3.11, p = 0.015) and increased income (OR = 4.34, 95% CI = 1.43-13.18, p = 0.010) were identified as positive determinants of good SRH.

CONCLUSION

We concluded that socioeconomic factors (education and income) and comorbid conditions (diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and pulmonary diseases) are risk factors for poor SRH among hypertensive patients. These findings could help planning of health enhancement initiative.

Which risk factor best predicts coronary artery disease using artificial neural network method?

BACKGROUND

Coronary artery disease (CAD) is recognized as the leading cause of death worldwide. This study analyses CAD risk factors using an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict CAD.

METHODS

The research data were obtained from a multi-center study, namely the Iran-premature coronary artery disease (I-PAD). The current study used the medical records of 415 patients with CAD hospitalized in Razi Hospital, Birjand, Iran, between May 2016 and June 2019. A total of 43 variables that affect CAD were selected, and the relevant data was extracted. Once the data were cleaned and normalized, they were imported into SPSS (V26) for analysis. The present study used the ANN technique.

RESULTS

The study revealed that 48% of the study population had a history of CAD, including 9.4% with premature CAD and 38.8% with CAD. The variables of age, sex, occupation, smoking, opium use, pesticide exposure, anxiety, sexual activity, and high fasting blood sugar were found to be significantly different among the three groups of CAD, premature CAD, and non-CAD individuals. The neural network achieved success with five hidden fitted layers and an accuracy of 81% in non-CAD diagnosis, 79% in premature diagnosis, and 78% in CAD diagnosis. Anxiety, acceptance, eduction and gender were the four most important factors in the ANN model.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study shows that anxiety is a high-prevalence risk factor for CAD in the hospitalized population. There is a need to implement measures to increase awareness about the psychological factors that can be managed in individuals at high risk for future CAD.

Association of the triglyceride glucose index with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a general population of Iranian adults

BACKGROUND

The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is a new and low-cost marker to determine insulin resistant which may be a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Although available evidence showed that its association with CVD mortality (CVM) and all-cause mortality (ACM) may differ in different populations, scarce data are available in this regard specially in low and middle-income countries.

PURPOSE

To examine the association between TyG index and risk of CVM and ACM in Iranians.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study included 5432 adults (age ≥ 35 years) with no history of CVD events. Fasting glucose and triglyceride were measured at baseline in all participants and TyG index was calculated. Cox frailty model was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for CVM and ACM across the tertiles of TyG index.

RESULTS

After a median follow-up of 11.25 years, a total number of 191 cardiovascular deaths, and 487 all-cause mortality was recorded. The risk of both CVM and ACM increased across the tertiles of TyG index. In the adjusted model for lifestyle and metabolic variables, the risks of ACM and CVM increased by 41% (95% CI 1.11, 1.81; P for trend = 0.005) and 64% (95% CI 1.07, 2.50; P for trend = 0.024), respectively. However, adjustment for diabetes mellitus disappeared the significance for both ACM and CVM. These associations may vary by sex. TyG was not related to the risk of non-CVD mortality.

CONCLUSION

The predicting value of TyG index for ACM and CVM might be mediated by diabetes status. Further studies are required to confirm these findings.

A healthy diet, physical activity, or either in relation to cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: A prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The aim of our study was to compare four lifestyles-healthy diet and low activity, unhealthy diet and high activity, unhealthy diet and low activity, and healthy diet and high activity-in relation to the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

A total of 6504 adults ages ≥35 y were recruited to participate in the Isfahan Cohort Study and followed for 13 y. Diet was assessed using a validated 48-item food frequency questionnaire, and the quality of diet was assessed using the Dietary Quality Index. Physical activity (PA) was evaluated using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The primary outcomes were CVD and all-cause mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and the 95% CIs.

RESULTS

During 771 440 person-years of follow-up, 390 and 147 deaths occurred due to all causes and CVD, respectively. High PA, either with a healthy or unhealthy diet, was associated with a lower risk of death from CVD (HR = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.26-0.69, and HR = 0.32; 95% CI, 0.18-0.56, respectively) and also all-cause mortality(HR = 0.53, 95% CI, 0.39-0.71, and HR = 0.5, 95% CI, 0.36-0.68). Moreover, type of PA was important, such that when leisure time PA was considered, none of the lifestyles was associated with a lower risk of CVD and all-cause mortality. However, for occupational PA, the result was the same as the total PA.

CONCLUSIONS

Having high PA (total or occupational), with or without adhering to a healthy diet, is associated with a lower risk of death from any cause and CVD; although leisure time PA, irrespective of adhering to a healthy diet, was not associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CVD mortality.

The relationship between nut consumption and premature coronary artery disease in a representative sample of Iranians: Iran-premature coronary artery disease (IPAD) study

OBJECTIVE

The cardioprotective effects of nuts are well established. However, the positive impacts of nuts in preventing CVD at a younger age, a condition known as premature coronary artery disease (PCAD), is still debated. Therefore, we aim to determine the association between nuts and PCAD occurrence and its severity in different Iranian ethnicities.

DESIGN

This case-control study was conducted within the framework of the Iran-premature coronary artery disease (I-PAD) study, an ongoing multi-centric study on Iranian patients of different ethnicities.

SETTING

This multi-centric case-control study was conducted in among 3253 persons under the age of 70 years in women and 60 years in men from different ethnicities in Iran.

PARTICIPANTS

Information on nut consumption was collected using a validated FFQ. Subjects were selected from among the candidates for angiography. Cases were those whose coronary angiography showed stenosis of more than 75 % in at least one vessel or more than 50 % of the left main artery, while the control group participants had normal angiography results.

RESULTS

In the crude model, compared to the first quartile, the highest quartile of nut consumption was significantly associated with a lower risk of PCAD (OR = 0·26, 95 % CI (0·21, 0·32); Pfor trend = 0·001). In the top quartile of nut intake, a substantial decrease in PCAD was observed after controlling for putative confounders (OR = 0·32; 95 % CI (0·24, 0·43); Pfor trend = 0·001). Additionally, a 75 % decrease in the risk of severe PCAD was observed in the participants in the highest quartile of nut intake.

CONCLUSION

A significant inverse association was observed between nut intake and the risk and severity of PCAD in the Iranian population. Large-scale clinical trials are required to confirm these findings.

Global variation in diabetes diagnosis and prevalence based on fasting glucose and hemoglobin A1c

Fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) are both used to diagnose diabetes, but these measurements can identify different people as having diabetes. We used data from 117 population-based studies and quantified, in different world regions, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes, and whether those who were previously undiagnosed and detected as having diabetes in survey screening, had elevated FPG, HbA1c or both. We developed prediction equations for estimating the probability that a person without previously diagnosed diabetes, and at a specific level of FPG, had elevated HbA1c, and vice versa. The age-standardized proportion of diabetes that was previously undiagnosed and detected in survey screening ranged from 30% in the high-income western region to 66% in south Asia. Among those with screen-detected diabetes with either test, the age-standardized proportion who had elevated levels of both FPG and HbA1c was 29-39% across regions; the remainder had discordant elevation of FPG or HbA1c. In most low- and middle-income regions, isolated elevated HbA1c was more common than isolated elevated FPG. In these regions, the use of FPG alone may delay diabetes diagnosis and underestimate diabetes prevalence. Our prediction equations help allocate finite resources for measuring HbA1c to reduce the global shortfall in diabetes diagnosis and surveillance.

Perceived stress, anxiety, and depression in women with breast cancer: CIBC study

BACKGROUND

Many breast cancer (BC) patients experience psychological reactions and may have psychiatric morbidities, especially anxiety and depressive disorders. The aim of this study was to evaluate perceived stress and factors affecting this stress in women with BC in Isfahan.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

This analytical cross-sectional study was carried out among 197 females with BC who were newly diagnosed and referred to Isfahan Cardio-Oncology Clinic. Stress was measured by the Perceived Stress Scale Standard questionnaire. Generalized linear models (GLMs) with gamma distribution and Log Link Function were used for data analyzing.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 48.9 ± 10.9 years, and mean perceived stress in patients was 42.8 ± 16.5. The GLMs with Gamma distribution and Log Link Function showed interaction between anxiety and surgical type and also between depression and surgical type. Patients perceived stress with anxiety*nonsurgery were significantly 2.5% higher than normal anxiety and none surgery (P = 0.004), and patients with depression*lumpectomy had significantly 2% higher stress score compared to normal depression and nonsurgery (P =0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Early detection of anxiety and depression can contribute to managing the stress. Coordination between psychologists and oncologists in care and treatment of these patients is important for pursuing treatment and following the recommendations of doctors and ultimately affect the morbidity and survival in BC patients.

Shared Lifestyle-Related Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer: Evidence for Joint Prevention

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are leading causes of mortality and morbidity worldwide and are the major focus of the World Health Organization's joint prevention programs. While, diverse diseases, CVD and cancer, have many similarities. These include common lifestyle-related risk factors and shared environmental, metabolic, cellular, inflammatory, and genetic pathways. In this review, we will discuss the shared lifestyle-related and environmental risk factors central to both diseases and how the strategies commonly used to prevent atherosclerotic vascular disease can be applied to cancer prevention.

Population food intake clusters and cardiovascular disease incidence: a Bayesian quantifying of a prospective population-based cohort study in a low and middle-income country

Aims

This study was designed to explore the relationship between cardiovascular disease incidence and population clusters, which were established based on daily food intake.

Methods

The current study examined 5,396 Iranian adults (2,627 males and 2,769 females) aged 35 years and older, who participated in a 10-year longitudinal population-based study that began in 2001. The frequency of food group consumption over the preceding year (daily, weekly, or monthly) was assessed using a 49-item qualitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) administered via a face-to-face interview conducted by an expert dietitian. Participants were clustered based on their dietary intake by applying the semi-parametric Bayesian approach of the Dirichlet Process. In this approach, individuals with the same multivariate distribution based on dietary intake were assigned to the same cluster. The association between the extracted population clusters and the incidence of cardiovascular diseases was examined using Cox proportional hazard models.

Results

In the 10-year follow-up, 741 participants (401 men and 340 women) were diagnosed with cardiovascular diseases. Individuals were categorized into three primary dietary clusters: healthy, unhealthy, and mixed. After adjusting for potential confounders, subjects in the unhealthy cluster exhibited a higher risk for cardiovascular diseases [Hazard Ratio (HR): 2.059; 95% CI: 1.013, 4.184] compared to those in the healthy cluster. In the unadjusted model, individuals in the mixed cluster demonstrated a higher risk for cardiovascular disease than those in the healthy cluster (HR: 1.515; 95% CI: 1.097, 2.092). However, this association was attenuated after adjusting for potential confounders (HR: 1.145; 95% CI: 0.769, 1.706).

Conclusion

The results have shown that individuals within an unhealthy cluster have a risk that is twice as high for the incidence of cardiovascular diseases. However, these associations need to be confirmed through further prospective investigations.

Impact of diabesity phenotype on cardiovascular diseases, major cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality

To investigate the longitudinal association of different phenotypes of diabetes and obesity with the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD), CVD- and all-cause mortality. A total of 5432 adults, aged ≥ 35 years and free of CVD were included in this cohort study. Diabesity phenotypes were defined in six categories based on the presence of diabetes (normal (NG), prediabetes and diabetes) and obesity (obese, non-obese). Fasting blood sugar, 2-h post prandial glucose, or using anti-diabetic medicines were used to define diabetes, and body mass index and waist circumference were used to define obesity. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for incident CVD, CVD- and all-cause mortality across these categories. After a median follow-up of 11.25 years, 819 CVD cases, 181 CVD deaths and 488 all-cause deaths occurred. In multivariable-adjusted models and irrespective of obesity definition, the phenotypes of normal glucose-obese, prediabetes-obese and pre-diabetes-non obese were not associated with CVD incidence in comparison with NG-non obese phenotype, however, the phenotypes of diabesity, either defined by general or abdominal obesity, were associated with increased risk of incident CVD events (HR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.01, 1.99, and HR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.07, 1.98, respectively). These findings were sex-specific and only in men with a phenotype of abdominal obesity-diabetes, a positive link was observed for CVD incidence (HR = 1.60, 95% CI 1.01, 2.52). No significant association was found between diabesity and death from CVD or all causes. Diabesity is a predictor of CVD and stroke incidence, but not CVD or all-cause mortality, among Iranians. This association is more pronounced amongst men than women.

Coffee Consumption and Risk of Hypertension in Adults: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVES

The association between coffee intake and hypertension (HTN) risk is controversial. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis aimed at summarizing the current evidence on the association of coffee with hypertension risk in observational studies.

METHODS

PubMed/Medline and Web of Science were searched for observational studies up to February 2023. Observational studies which assessed the risk of HTN in the highest category of coffee consumption in comparison with the lowest intake were included in the current meta-analysis (registration number: CRD42022371494). The pooled effect of coffee on HTN was evaluated using a random-effects model.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies i.e., thirteen cross-sectional studies and twelve cohorts were identified to be eligible. Combining 13 extracted effect sizes from cohort studies showed that higher coffee consumption was associated with 7% reduction in the risk of HTN (95% CI: 0.88, 0.97; I²: 22.3%), whereas combining 16 effect sizes from cross-sectional studies illustrated a greater reduction in HTN risk (RR = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.72, 0.87; I² = 63.2%). These results varied by studies characteristics, such as the region of study, participants' sex, study quality, and sample size.

CONCLUSIONS

An inverse association was found between coffee consumption and hypertension risk in both cross-sectional and cohort studies. However, this association was dependent on studies characteristics. Further studies considering such factors are required to confirm the results of this study.

Diet, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 80 countries

AIMS

To develop a healthy diet score that is associated with health outcomes and is globally applicable using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and replicate it in five independent studies on a total of 245 000 people from 80 countries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A healthy diet score was developed in 147 642 people from the general population, from 21 countries in the PURE study, and the consistency of the associations of the score with events was examined in five large independent studies from 70 countries. The healthy diet score was developed based on six foods each of which has been associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality [i.e. fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and dairy (mainly whole-fat); range of scores, 0-6]. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events [cardiovascular disease (CVD)]. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years in PURE, compared with a diet score of ≤1 points, a diet score of ≥5 points was associated with a lower risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.77)], CVD (HR 0.82; 0.75-0.91), myocardial infarction (HR 0.86; 0.75-0.99), and stroke (HR 0.81; 0.71-0.93). In three independent studies in vascular patients, similar results were found, with a higher diet score being associated with lower mortality (HR 0.73; 0.66-0.81), CVD (HR 0.79; 0.72-0.87), myocardial infarction (HR 0.85; 0.71-0.99), and a non-statistically significant lower risk of stroke (HR 0.87; 0.73-1.03). Additionally, in two case-control studies, a higher diet score was associated with lower first myocardial infarction [odds ratio (OR) 0.72; 0.65-0.80] and stroke (OR 0.57; 0.50-0.65). A higher diet score was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or CVD in regions with lower than with higher gross national incomes (P for heterogeneity <0.0001). The PURE score showed slightly stronger associations with death or CVD than several other common diet scores (P < 0.001 for each comparison).

CONCLUSION

A diet comprised of higher amounts of fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and whole-fat dairy is associated with lower CVD and mortality in all world regions, especially in countries with lower income where consumption of these foods is low.

The relationship between ultra processed food consumption and premature coronary artery disease: Iran premature coronary artery disease study (IPAD)

Background

Ultra-processed foods (UPF) consumption may affect the risk of PCAD through affecting cardio metabolic risk factors. This study aimed to evaluate the association between UPFs consumption and premature coronary artery disease (PCAD).

Methods

A case-control study was conducted on 2,354 Iranian adults (≥ 19 years). Dietary intake was assessed using a validated 110-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and foods were classified based on the NOVA system, which groups all foods according to the nature, extent and purposes of the industrial processes they undergo. PCAD was defined as having an stenosis of at least single coronary artery equal and above 75% or left main coronary of equal or more than 50% in women less than 70 and men less than 60 years, determined by angiography. The odds of PCAD across the tertiles of UPFs consumption were assessed by binary logistic regression.

Results

After adjustment for potential confounders, participants in the top tertile of UPFs were twice as likely to have PCAD compared with those in the bottom tertile (OR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.97-3.23). Moreover, those in the highest tertile of the UPFs consumption had more than two times higher risk for having severe PCAD than those in the first tertile (OR: 2.64; 95% CI: 2.16-3.22). In addition, there was a significant upward trend in PCAD risk and PCAD severity as tertiles increased (P-trend < 0.001 for all models).

Conclusion

Higher consumption of UPFs was related to increased risk of PCAD and higher chance of having severe PCAD in Iranian adults. Although, future cohort studies are needed to confirm the results of this study, these findings indicated the necessity of reducing UPFs intake.

The relationship between a plant-based diet and mental health: Evidence from a cross-sectional multicentric community trial (LIPOKAP study)

BACKGROUND

Dietary patterns emphasizing plant foods might be neuroprotective and exert health benefits on mental health. However, there is a paucity of evidence on the association between a plant-based dietary index and mental health measures.

OBJECTIVE

This study sought to examine the association between plant-based dietary indices, depression and anxiety in a large multicentric sample of Iranian adults.

METHODS

This cross-sectional study was performed in a sample of 2,033 participants. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to evaluate dietary intakes of participants. Three versions of PDI including an overall PDI, a healthy PDI (hPDI), and an unhealthy PDI (uPDI) were created. The presence of anxiety and depression was examined via a validated Iranian version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS).

RESULTS

PDI and hPDI were not associated to depression and anxiety after adjustment for potential covariates (age, sex, energy, marital status, physical activity level and smoking). However, in the crude model, the highest consumption of uPDI approximately doubled the risk of depression (OR= 2.07, 95% CI: 1.49, 2.87; P<0.0001) and increased the risk of anxiety by almost 50% (OR= 1.56, 95% CI: 1.14, 2.14; P= 0.001). Adjustment for potential confounders just slightly changed the associations (OR for depression in the fourth quartile= 1.96; 95% CI: 1.34, 2.85, and OR for anxiety in the fourth quartile= 1.53; 95% CI: 1.07, 2.19).

CONCLUSIONS

An unhealthy plant-based dietary index is associated with a higher risk of depression and anxiety, while plant-based dietary index and healthy plant-based dietary index were not associated to depression and anxiety.

The influential role of parents' socioeconomic status and diet quality on their children's dietary behavior: results from the LIPOKAP study among the Iranian population

PURPOSE

There is a paucity of evidence regarding the influential factors on Iranian children's diet quality. To assess this issue, we explore the relationship between parental diet quality, socioeconomic status (SES), and nutritional knowledge with their children's diet quality using a cross-sectional sample of the Iranian population.

METHODS

In this study, paired parents along with one of their children (aged 6-18 years old) who lived with them were included. Dietary intake was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) and diet quality was determined using an Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI). Nutritional knowledge and SES were also explored using validated questionnaires. Multiple linear regression analysis was used and beta (β) and corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were reported.

RESULTS

After controlling for potential confounders, the parents' AHEI was significantly associated with their children's diet quality (β = 12.34, 95% CI: 10.75, 13.93; P < 0.001). The nutritional knowledge of parents was significantly associated with children's AHEI after controlling for potential confounders (β = 1.63, 95% CI: 0.14, 3.11; P = 0.032). Moreover, the parents' SES was inversely associated with the AHEI of children (β=-3.76, 95% CI: -5.40, -2.11; P < 0.001); however, further adjustment for confounders attenuated this relationship (Model 3: β = 0.87, 95% CI: -0.76, 2.34; P = 0.269).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that the children's diet quality could be influenced by their parents' SES, nutritional knowledge, and diet quality. Our findings suggest that improving the nutritional knowledge of parents not only may improve the healthy eating pattern of parents but also could influence their children's diet quality.

Comparison of reference intervals for biochemical and hematology markers derived by direct and indirect procedures based on the Isfahan cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Indirect methods for reference interval (RI) establishment apply statistical techniques to generate RIs for test result interpretation using stored laboratory data. They present unique advantages relative to traditional direct approaches such as fewer resource requirements; however, there is debate regarding their performance. Herein, we aimed to compare indirect and direct approaches for RI establishment by harnessing data from the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS). This cohort includes both healthy individuals and those with a history of disease, enabling a direct comparison.

METHODS

Participants were recruited as part of ICS, including 6504 adults aged 34 years and older. Sociodemographic characteristics, anthropometry, blood pressure, various biochemical indices, and hematology parameters were collected. The refineR method was used to establish indirect RIs (before applying exclusion criteria). Direct RIs were calculated using nonparametric methods per CLSI EP28-A3 guidelines (after applying exclusion criteria). Bias ratios were calculated for each parameter to assess significant differences in estimations.

RESULTS

Direct and indirect RI estimations for most hematological and biochemical parameters were comparable. Statistically significant bias ratios between methods were observed for the upper limits of total cholesterol, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), hemoglobin (female), and platelet count as well as the lower limits of mean corpuscular hemoglobin (female), mean corpuscular volume, hemoglobin, and hematocrit (female).

CONCLUSION

Data presented indicate RIs derived from direct and indirect approaches are similar, but not identical. Further work should focus on the clinical significance of such differences as well as the investigation of necessary data-cleaning criteria before indirect method application.

Longitudinal association of dietary habits and the risk of cardiovascular disease among Iranian population between 2001 and 2013: the Isfahan Cohort Study

There has been a steady rise in the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Iranian population. The aim of this study is to investigate the association between Global Dietary Index (GDI) and CVD risk among the Iranian adult population. This study was conducted based on Isfahan Cohort Study, a longitudinal study that collected data between 2001 and 2013 on 6405 adults. Dietary intakes were assessed by a validated food frequency questionnaire to calculate GDI. All participants were followed every two years by phone call to ask about death, any hospitalization, or cardiovascular events to examine CVD events. The Average age of participants was 50.70 ± 11.63 and the median of GDI score was 1 (IQR: 0.29). A total of 751 CVD events (1.4 incidence rate, per 100 person-year) occurred during 52,704 person-years of follow-up. One-unit GDI increase was associated with a higher risk of MI by 72% (HR: 1.72; 95% CI 1.04-2.84), stroke by 76% (HR: 1.76; 95% CI 1.09-2.85) and CVD by 30% (HR: 1.48; 95% CI 1.02-2.65). In addition, a one-unit GDI increase was associated with a higher risk of coronary heart disease more than 2 times (HR: 2.32; 95% CI 1.50-3.60) and CVD mortality and all-cause mortality over than 3 times [(HR: 3.65; 95% CI 1.90-7.01) and (HR: 3.10; 95% CI 1.90-5.06), respectively]. Higher GDI had a significant relationship with the increased risk of CVD events and all-cause mortality. Further epidemiological studies in other populations are suggested to confirm our findings.

Ethnic differences in the lifestyle behaviors and premature coronary artery disease: a multi-center study

BACKGROUND

Diverse ethnic groups that exist in Iran may differ regarding the risk factors such as hypertension, hyperlipidemia, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and family history of non-communicable disease. Premature Coronary Artery Disease (PCAD) is more endemic in Iran than before. This study sought to assess the association between ethnicity and lifestyle behaviors in eight major Iranian ethnic groups with PCAD.

METHODS

In this study, 2863 patients aged ≤ 70 for women and ≤ 60 for men who underwent coronary angiography were recruited in a multi-center framework. All the patients' demographic, laboratory, clinical, and risk factor data were retrieved. Eight large ethnicities in Iran, including the Farses, the Kurds, the Turks, the Gilaks, the Arabs, the Lors, the Qashqai, and the Bakhtiari were evaluated for PCAD. Different lifestyle components and having PCAD were compared among the ethnical groups using multivariable modeling.

RESULTS

The mean age of the 2863 patients participated was 55.66 ± 7.70 years. The Fars ethnicity with 1654 people, was the most subject in this study. Family history of more than three chronic diseases (1279 (44.7%) was the most common risk factor. The Turk ethnic group had the highest prevalence of ≥ 3 simultaneous lifestyle-related risk factors (24.3%), and the Bakhtiari ethnic group had the highest prevalence of no lifestyle-related risk factors (20.9%). Adjusted models showed that having all three abnormal lifestyle components increased the risk of PCAD (OR = 2.28, 95% CI: 1.04-1.06). The Arabs had the most chance of getting PCAD among other ethnicities (OR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.40-3.65). While, the Kurds with a healthy lifestyle showed the lowest chance of getting PCAD (OR = 1.96, 95%CI: 1.05-3.67)).

CONCLUSIONS

This study found there was heterogeneity in having PACD and a diverse distribution in its well-known traditional lifestyle-related risk factors among major Iranian ethnic groups.

Genetic variation in salt taste receptors impact salt intake and blood pressure

So far, few studies have examined the effect of salt taste receptors genetic variation on dietary intake in the Iranian population. We aimed to evaluate associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in salt taste receptors' genes with dietary salt intake and blood pressure. A cross-sectional study was carried out among 116 randomly selected healthy adults aged ≥ 18 in Isfahan, Iran. Participants underwent sodium intake determination by 24-h urine collection, as well as dietary assessment by semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire and blood pressure measurement. Whole blood was collected to extract DNA and genotype of SNP rs239345 in SCNN1B and rs224534, rs4790151 and rs8065080 in TRPV1 gene. Sodium consumption and diastolic blood pressure were significantly higher in carriers of the A-allele in rs239345 compared to subjects with the TT genotype (4808.4 ± 824.4 mg/day vs. 4043.5 ± 989.3 mg/day; P = 0.004) and 83.6 ± 8.5 mmHg vs. 77.3 ± 7.3 mmHg; P = 0.011), respectively. The level of sodium intake was lower in the TT genotype of TRPV1 (rs224534) than the CC genotype (3767.0 ± 713.7 mg/day vs. 4633.3 ± 793.5 mg/day; P = 0.012). We could not find any association between genotypes of all SNPs with systolic blood pressure as well as genotypes of rs224534, rs4790151 and rs8065080 with diastolic blood pressure. Genetic variations can relate with salt intake and consequently may associate with hypertension and finally cardiovascular disease risk in the Iranian population.

Ethnicity based differences in statin use and hypercholesterolemia control among patients with premature coronary artery disease-results of I-PAD study

Background

Statins use is the most important treatment for high LDL cholesterol in patients with premature coronary artery disease (CAD). Previous reports have shown racial and gender differences in statin use in the general population, but this wasn't studied in premature CAD based on different ethnicities.

Methods and results

Our study includes 1917 men and women with confirmed diagnosis of premature CAD. Logistic regression model was used to evaluate the high LDL cholesterol control in the groups and the OR with 95% confidence interval (CI) was reported as the effect size. After adjustment for confounders, the odds of controlling LDL in women taking Lovastatin, Rosuvastatin, and Simvastatin were 0.27 (0.03, 0.45) lower in comparison with men. Also, in participant who took 3 types of statins, the odds of controlling LDL were significantly different between Lor and Arab compared with Fars ethnicity. After adjustment to all confounders (full model), the odds of controlling LDL were lower for Gilak in Lovastatin, Rosuvastatin, and Simvastatin by 0.64 (0.47, 0.75); 0.61 (0.43, 0.73); 0.63 (0.46, 0.74) respectively and higher for Arab in Lovastatin, Rosuvastatin, and Simvastatin by 4.63 (18.28, 0.73); 4.67 (17.47, 0.74); 4.55 (17.03, 0.71) respectively compared to Fars.

Conclusions

Major differences in different gender and ethnicities may have had led to disparities in statin use and LDL control. Awareness of the statins impact on high LDL cholesterol based on different ethnicities can help health decision-makers to close the observed gaps in statin use and control LDL to prevent CAD problems.

Diminishing benefits of urban living for children and adolescents' growth and development

Optimal growth and development in childhood and adolescence is crucial for lifelong health and well-being1-6. Here we used data from 2,325 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight from 71 million participants, to report the height and body-mass index (BMI) of children and adolescents aged 5-19 years on the basis of rural and urban place of residence in 200 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020. In 1990, children and adolescents residing in cities were taller than their rural counterparts in all but a few high-income countries. By 2020, the urban height advantage became smaller in most countries, and in many high-income western countries it reversed into a small urban-based disadvantage. The exception was for boys in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa and in some countries in Oceania, south Asia and the region of central Asia, Middle East and north Africa. In these countries, successive cohorts of boys from rural places either did not gain height or possibly became shorter, and hence fell further behind their urban peers. The difference between the age-standardized mean BMI of children in urban and rural areas was <1.1 kg m-2 in the vast majority of countries. Within this small range, BMI increased slightly more in cities than in rural areas, except in south Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and some countries in central and eastern Europe. Our results show that in much of the world, the growth and developmental advantages of living in cities have diminished in the twenty-first century, whereas in much of sub-Saharan Africa they have amplified.

Differences in all-cause mortality risk associated with animal and plant dietary protein sources consumption

The relationship between protein intake and mortality is still controversial. We prospectively examined the associations of dietary protein sources with all-cause mortality risk in the Isfahan cohort study (ICS). A total of 5431 participants, aged ≥ 35 years, were enrolled in the ICS, in 2001 and followed through 2013. The frequency of protein intakes from different sources was estimated through a validated food frequency questionnaire at baseline. Any new case of death was recorded over the follow-up duration. Hazard ratio (HR)s and 95% confidence interval (CI)s were estimated through Cox proportional hazards regression models. During a median follow-up of 11.3 years, 483 deaths were documented. Higher intakes of plant proteins (HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.46, 0.91) and animal proteins (HR = 1.52, 95% CI 1.13, 2.05) were associated with a decreased and increased risk of mortality, respectively. Additional adjustment for some mediators did not considerably affect the associations for animal protein (HR = 1.55, 95% CI 1.15, 2.09), whereas led to a tendency towards lower risk for plant protein in the top quintile compared with the bottom one (HR = 0.67, 95% CI 0.48, 0.95; P trend = 0.06). Among specific major sources, higher intakes of nuts and fish were associated with a 27% (95% CI 0.58, 0.93) and 21% (95% CI 0.62, 1.01) lower risk of mortality, respectively. The inverse association between plant protein and mortality risk might be mediated by some metabolic disorders. However, our results suggest an independent positive association for animal protein and all-cause mortality.

Nuts and Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes: A Review of the Evidence and Future Directions

Nuts are nutrient-rich foods that contain many bioactive compounds that are beneficial for cardiovascular health. Higher consumption of nuts has been associated with a reduced risk of several cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in prospective cohort studies, including a 19% and 25% lower risk of CVD incidence and mortality, respectively, and a 24% and 27% lower risk of coronary heart disease incidence and mortality, respectively. An 18% lower risk of stroke mortality, a 15% lower risk of atrial fibrillation, and a 19% lower risk of total mortality have also been observed. The role of nuts in stroke incidence, stroke subtypes, peripheral arterial disease and heart failure has been less consistent. This narrative review summarizes recommendations for nuts by clinical practice guidelines and governmental organizations, epidemiological evidence for nuts and CVD outcomes, nut-containing dietary patterns, potential mechanisms of nuts and CVD risk reduction, and future research directions, such as the use of biomarkers to help better assess nut intake. Although there are still some uncertainties around nuts and CVD prevention which require further research, as summarized in this review, there is a substantial amount of evidence that supports that consuming nuts will have a positive impact on primary and secondary prevention of CVD.

The association between daytime sleep and general obesity risk differs by sleep duration in Iranian adults

BACKGROUND

Sleep duration and daytime napping and obesity are related to adiposity; however, it is not clear whether the association between daytime napping and adiposity measures can differ by sleep duration.

AIM

To clarify the association between daytime napping and general and abdominal obesity based on sleep duration of participants.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study was conducted on 1,683 individuals (837 men and 846 women) aged ≥ 35 years. Height, weight and waist circumference (WC) were measured according to the standard protocols. Body mass index (BMI) was calculated. Self-reported sleep duration (in a 24-hour cycle) was recorded. The odds of general and abdominal obesity were compared between nappers and non-nappers, stratified by their sleep duration (≤ 6 h, 6-8 h, ≥ 8 h).

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age of participants was 47.48 ± 9.35 years. Nappers with a short sleep duration (≤ 6 h) had greater BMI and higher risk for overweight/obesity compared with counterpart non-nappers after adjustment for potential confounders (OR = 1.61, 95% CI = 1.07-2.41). In subjects with moderate sleep duration (6-8 h), nappers had a tendency towards higher BMI in comparison with non-nappers (28.04 ± 0.25 vs. 26.93 ± 0.51 kg/m²; p = 0.05), however, no significant difference was observed for the risk of obesity. Daytime napping was not related to the risk of obesity in long sleepers. No significant association was observed for abdominal obesity measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Daytime napping is associated with increased risk of overweight/obesity in short sleepers. However, in subjects with longer sleep duration, it is not related to the risk of overweight/obesity.

Ultra-processed foods and mortality: analysis from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study

BACKGROUND

Higher intake of ultra-processed foods (UPFs) has been associated with increased risk of CVD and mortality in observational studies from Western countries but data from non-Western countries are limited.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to assess the association between consumption of UPFs and risk of mortality and major CVD in a cohort from multiple world regions.

DESIGN

This analysis includes 138,076 participants without a history of CVD between the ages of 35 and 70 y living on 5 continents, with a median follow-up of 10.2 y. We used country-specific validated food-frequency questionnaires to determine individuals' food intake. We classified foods and beverages based on the NOVA classification into UPFs. The primary outcome was total mortality (CV and non-CV mortality) and secondary outcomes were incident major cardiovascular events. We calculated hazard ratios using multivariable Cox frailty models and evaluated the association of UPFs with total mortality, CV mortality, non-CV mortality, and major CVD events.

RESULTS

In this study, 9227 deaths and 7934 major cardiovascular events were recorded during the follow-up period. We found a diet high in UPFs (≥2 servings/d compared with 0 intake) was associated with higher risk of mortality (HR: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.15, 1.42; P-trend < 0.001), CV mortality (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.41; P-trend = 0.04), and non-CV mortality (HR: 1.32; 95% CI 1.17, 1.50; P-trend < 0.001). We did not find a significant association between UPF intake and risk of major CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

A diet with a high intake of UPFs was associated with a higher risk of mortality in a diverse multinational study. Globally, limiting the consumption of UPFs should be encouraged.

Priority setting in cardiovascular research in Iran using standard indigenous methods

Background

Determining cardiovascular disease (CVD) research priorities is essential given the high burden of these diseases, limited financial resources, and competing priorities. This study aimed to determine the research priorities in CVD field in Iran using standard indigenous methods.

Materials and Methods

An extensive search was done in relevant international and national studies. Then, an indigenous standard multistage approach based on multicriteria decision analysis steps was adapted to local situation and implemented. This process included forming a working group of experts in priority setting methodology, identifying the context and prioritization framework, discussing the methodology with the National Network of CVD Research (NCVDR) members who ultimately determined the priority research topics, weighted topics criteria, ranked topics, and reviewed all determined research priorities for final report.

Results

Thirteen cardiovascular research priorities were determined by the NCVDR members. The first five priorities based on their scores include studies in hypertension, prevention and control of ischemic heart disease (IHD) and its risk factors, burden of IHD, Registration of CVDs, and COVID-19 and CVDs.

Conclusion

Cardiovascular research priorities were determined using a standard indigenous approach by national experts who are the NCVDR members. These priorities can be used by researchers and health decision makers.

The association of dietary macronutrient quality indices with depression and anxiety symptoms and quality of life in Iranian adults: The LipoKAP study

BACKGROUND

Macronutrients' quality may impact differently on mental health and quality of life (QOL). This study aimed to investigate the potential relationship between the carbohydrate quality index (CQI), fat quality index (FQI), protein quality index (PQI), the affective mental symptoms and QOL among Iranian adults.

METHODS

The LipoKAP is a cross-sectional study, conducted with 2456 adults in Iran. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to evaluate usual dietary intakes. A validated Iranian version of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale was used to assess the severity of anxiety and depression. QOL was assessed by EQ-5D.

RESULT

In the fully adjusted model, participants in the highest tertile of CQI had lower QOL than those in the lowest tertile (OR = 1.35; 95 % CI: 1.06, 1.73). Individuals in the top tertile of FQI (OR = 0.71; 95 % CI: 0.55, 0.91) and PQI (OR = 0.78; 95 % CI: 0.60; 1.01) were less likely to report lower QOL than those in the bottom tertile. An inverse association was found between PQI and depressive symptoms (OR = 0.72, 95 % CI: 0.55, 0.95), but not for CQI and FQI.

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional design of the study and the use of a memory-based dietary tool may limit the generalizability of our findings.

CONCLUSION

Higher PQI was associated with lower risk of depressive symptoms and having a low-quality life. Although CQI and FQI were not related to depressive and anxiety symptoms, higher values of FQI were associated with better QOL, while CQI showed an inverse association.

Estimated Global Proportions of Individuals With Persistent Fatigue, Cognitive, and Respiratory Symptom Clusters Following Symptomatic COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021

Importance

Some individuals experience persistent symptoms after initial symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (often referred to as Long COVID).

Objective

To estimate the proportion of males and females with COVID-19, younger or older than 20 years of age, who had Long COVID symptoms in 2020 and 2021 and their Long COVID symptom duration.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Bayesian meta-regression and pooling of 54 studies and 2 medical record databases with data for 1.2 million individuals (from 22 countries) who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection. Of the 54 studies, 44 were published and 10 were collaborating cohorts (conducted in Austria, the Faroe Islands, Germany, Iran, Italy, the Netherlands, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the US). The participant data were derived from the 44 published studies (10 501 hospitalized individuals and 42 891 nonhospitalized individuals), the 10 collaborating cohort studies (10 526 and 1906), and the 2 US electronic medical record databases (250 928 and 846 046). Data collection spanned March 2020 to January 2022.

Exposures

Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Proportion of individuals with at least 1 of the 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020 and 2021, estimated separately for hospitalized and nonhospitalized individuals aged 20 years or older by sex and for both sexes of nonhospitalized individuals younger than 20 years of age.

Results

A total of 1.2 million individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection were included (mean age, 4-66 years; males, 26%-88%). In the modeled estimates, 6.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 2.4%-13.3%) of individuals who had symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection experienced at least 1 of the 3 Long COVID symptom clusters in 2020 and 2021, including 3.2% (95% UI, 0.6%-10.0%) for persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings, 3.7% (95% UI, 0.9%-9.6%) for ongoing respiratory problems, and 2.2% (95% UI, 0.3%-7.6%) for cognitive problems after adjusting for health status before COVID-19, comprising an estimated 51.0% (95% UI, 16.9%-92.4%), 60.4% (95% UI, 18.9%-89.1%), and 35.4% (95% UI, 9.4%-75.1%), respectively, of Long COVID cases. The Long COVID symptom clusters were more common in women aged 20 years or older (10.6% [95% UI, 4.3%-22.2%]) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection than in men aged 20 years or older (5.4% [95% UI, 2.2%-11.7%]). Both sexes younger than 20 years of age were estimated to be affected in 2.8% (95% UI, 0.9%-7.0%) of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections. The estimated mean Long COVID symptom cluster duration was 9.0 months (95% UI, 7.0-12.0 months) among hospitalized individuals and 4.0 months (95% UI, 3.6-4.6 months) among nonhospitalized individuals. Among individuals with Long COVID symptoms 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, an estimated 15.1% (95% UI, 10.3%-21.1%) continued to experience symptoms at 12 months.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study presents modeled estimates of the proportion of individuals with at least 1 of 3 self-reported Long COVID symptom clusters (persistent fatigue with bodily pain or mood swings; cognitive problems; or ongoing respiratory problems) 3 months after symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Association between ultra-processed foods consumption and micronutrient intake and diet quality in Iranian adults: a multicentric study

OBJECTIVE

To identify ultra-processed foods (UPF) contribution to daily energy and nutrient intake in Iranians and examine whether UPF intake is associated with nutrient profile and diet quality.

DESIGN

In this cross-sectional study, a validated FFQ was used to evaluate usual dietary intake over the preceding year. NOVA system was applied to categorise foods based on their levels of processing. Diet quality was evaluated using the nutrient adequacy ratio (NAR), Nutrient Rich Food Index (NRF) and hybrid nutrient density.

SETTING

The LIPOKAP study conducted in five cities of Iran (Isfahan, Birjand, Bandar Abbas, Kermanshah and Shahrekord).

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 1994 adults aged ≥18 years were recruited using stratified multistage random cluster sampling method.

RESULTS

UPF were responsible for 8·5 % of daily energy intake. In the adjusted model, UPF consumption was inversely associated with carbohydrate, protein, refined and whole grains, fibre, fruit and meat, but was positively linked to energy, total fat, saturated and trans fatty acids and cholesterol. Compared with those in the lowest tertile, individuals in the highest tertile of UPF had smaller NAR for Ca, Mg, Zn, Fe, phosphorus, thiamin, niacin, folate and vitamin C. Both NRF and hybrid nutrient density decreased when the share of daily energy intake from UPF increased.

CONCLUSION

The higher consumption of UPF is associated with poorer diet quality and lower nutrient intake. It is recommended that UPF be replaced with minimally processed foods to improve diet quality and nutrient profile.

The relationship between ultraprocessed food consumption and obesity indicators in Iranian adults

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Food processing changes the nature of foods, and it is growing globally due to its availability and affordability and its effects on the palatability of foods. Consumption of ultraprocessed foods (UPFs) may adversely affect weight gain. The purpose of the current study is to examine the association between UPFs consumption and adiposity among Iranian adults.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A cross-sectional study was conducted on 1459 Iranian adults (≥19 years). Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated 136-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ), and foods were classified based on the NOVA system. Overweight, obesity, and abdominal obesity were defined as body mass index (BMI) ≥25 and < 30, ≥30, respectively, and waist circumference (WC) ≥91 for women and WC ≥ 89 for men. The odds of general and abdominal obesity across the quartiles of UPFs were assessed by binary logistic regression. UPFs consumption contributed to 20.17% of daily energy intake. After adjustment for potential confounders, UPFs consumption was not associated with general or abdominal obesity. However, in the fully adjusted model, men in the top quartile of UPFs were twice as likely to be overweight compared with those in the bottom quartile (OR = 2.06, 95% CI: 1.03, 4.10; P = 0.047). No association was found in women or stratified analysis by age.

CONCLUSION

The present findings suggest a sex-specific association between UPFs consumption and overweight. UPFs consumption might be associated with an increased risk of overweight in men, but no such association was found in women. Future cohort studies are required to confirm these results.

The Effect of Ketogenic Diet on Shared Risk Factors of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer are the first and second leading causes of death worldwide, respectively. Epidemiological evidence has demonstrated that the incidence of cancer is elevated in patients with CVD and vice versa. However, these conditions are usually regarded as separate events despite the presence of shared risk factors between both conditions, such as metabolic abnormalities and lifestyle. Cohort studies suggested that controlling for CVD risk factors may have an impact on cancer incidence. Therefore, it could be concluded that interventions that improve CVD and cancer shared risk factors may potentially be effective in preventing and treating both diseases. The ketogenic diet (KD), a low-carbohydrate and high-fat diet, has been widely prescribed in weight loss programs for metabolic abnormalities. Furthermore, recent research has investigated the effects of KD on the treatment of numerous diseases, including CVD and cancer, due to its role in promoting ketolysis, ketogenesis, and modifying many other metabolic pathways with potential favorable health effects. However, there is still great debate regarding prescribing KD in patients either with CVD or cancer. Considering the number of studies on this topic, there is a clear need to summarize potential mechanisms through which KD can improve cardiovascular health and control cell proliferation. In this review, we explained the history of KD, its types, and physiological effects and discussed how it could play a role in CVD and cancer treatment and prevention.

An evolutionary machine learning algorithm for cardiovascular disease risk prediction

Introduction

This study developed a novel risk assessment model to predict the occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. It uses a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to develop an easy-to-use model with high accuracy, calibrated based on the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS) database.

Methods

The ICS was a population-based prospective cohort study of 6,504 healthy Iranian adults aged ≥ 35 years followed for incident CVD over ten years, from 2001 to 2010. To develop a risk score, the problem of predicting CVD was solved using a well-designed GA, and finally, the results were compared with classic machine learning (ML) and statistical methods.

Results

A number of risk scores such as the WHO, and PARS models were utilized as the baseline for comparison due to their similar chart-based models. The Framingham and PROCAM models were also applied to the dataset, with the area under a Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC) equal to 0.633 and 0.683, respectively. However, the more complex Deep Learning model using a three-layered Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) performed best among the ML models, with an AUROC of 0.74, and the GA-based eXplanaible Persian Atherosclerotic CVD Risk Stratification (XPARS) showed higher performance compared to the statistical methods. XPARS with eight features showed an AUROC of 0.76, and the XPARS with four features, showed an AUROC of 0.72.

Conclusion

A risk model that is extracted using GA substantially improves the prediction of CVD compared to conventional methods. It is clear, interpretable and can be a suitable replacement for conventional statistical methods.

A global systematic analysis of the occurrence, severity, and recovery pattern of long COVID in 2020 and 2021

Importance:

While much of the attention on the COVID-19 pandemic was directed at the daily counts of cases and those with serious disease overwhelming health services, increasingly, reports have appeared of people who experience debilitating symptoms after the initial infection. This is popularly known as long COVID.

Objective:

To estimate by country and territory of the number of patients affected by long COVID in 2020 and 2021, the severity of their symptoms and expected pattern of recovery

Design:

We jointly analyzed ten ongoing cohort studies in ten countries for the occurrence of three major symptom clusters of long COVID among representative COVID cases. The defining symptoms of the three clusters (fatigue, cognitive problems, and shortness of breath) are explicitly mentioned in the WHO clinical case definition. For incidence of long COVID, we adopted the minimum duration after infection of three months from the WHO case definition. We pooled data from the contributing studies, two large medical record databases in the United States, and findings from 44 published studies using a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We separately estimated occurrence and pattern of recovery in patients with milder acute infections and those hospitalized. We estimated the incidence and prevalence of long COVID globally and by country in 2020 and 2021 as well as the severity-weighted prevalence using disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease study.

Results:

Analyses are based on detailed information for 1906 community infections and 10526 hospitalized patients from the ten collaborating cohorts, three of which included children. We added published data on 37262 community infections and 9540 hospitalized patients as well as ICD-coded medical record data concerning 1.3 million infections. Globally, in 2020 and 2021, 144.7 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 54.8–312.9) people suffered from any of the three symptom clusters of long COVID. This corresponds to 3.69% (1.38–7.96) of all infections. The fatigue, respiratory, and cognitive clusters occurred in 51.0% (16.9–92.4), 60.4% (18.9–89.1), and 35.4% (9.4–75.1) of long COVID cases, respectively. Those with milder acute COVID-19 cases had a quicker estimated recovery (median duration 3.99 months [IQR 3.84–4.20]) than those admitted for the acute infection (median duration 8.84 months [IQR 8.10–9.78]). At twelve months, 15.1% (10.3–21.1) continued to experience long COVID symptoms.

Conclusions and relevance:

The occurrence of debilitating ongoing symptoms of COVID-19 is common. Knowing how many people are affected, and for how long, is important to plan for rehabilitative services and support to return to social activities, places of learning, and the workplace when symptoms start to wane.

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol association with incident of cardiovascular events: Isfahan cohort study

BACKGROUND

There are many studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) association with cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, just a few studies investigated whether the low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) could participate in hs-CRP prognostic strength. This study aimed to determine the alliance of hs-CRP and LDL-C in different concentrations in occurrence cardiovascular events in the Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS).

METHODS

3277 participants aged 35 and above were included in the current analysis. We evaluated the association of elevated hs-CRP levels (≥ 3 mg/dL) and CVD events including myocardial infarction, ischemic heart disease, stroke, CVD, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality in those with LDL-C ≥ or < 130 mg/dL Cox frailty models was used to determine possible interactions.

RESULTS

In both crude and fully adjusted models, there was no significant interaction between LDL-C and hs-CRP levels with the incidence of MI, stroke, CVD mortality, and all-cause death. Neither elevated LDL-C alone nor elevated CRP alone were associated with the risk of all cardiovascular events and all-cause death. However, participants with elevated concentrations of both hs-CRP and LDL-C had a greater risk of ischemic heart disease (IHD) (hazards ratio (HR) 1.44; 95% CI 1.03-2.02) and CVD (HR 1.36; 95% CI 1.01-1.83) than those with low LDL-C and hs-CRP.

CONCLUSION

These results indicate that despite a null association between elevated levels of CRP or LDL-C alone and CVD events, concurrent rise in LDL-C and hs-CRP levels is associated with higher risk of IHD and CVD.

Sodium and potassium intakes and adiposity among Iranian pre-adolescents and adolescents: a cross-sectional study

Background

High sodium and low potassium intakes are associated with the early development of chronic diseases (e.g., hypertension, obesity). Taking into account the limited data on sodium and potassium intakes by 24-h excretion in urine in pre-adolescents and adolescents, we wished to determine baseline salt intake in Iranian subjects aged 11–18 years.

Methods

This was an observational study involving 374 pre-adolescents and adolescents (154 boys and 220 girls). Sodium and potassium intakes were ascertained by measuring sodium and potassium excretion in urine over 24 h. Creatinine level was used to validate the completeness of the urine collections. The association between sodium and potassium intake and adiposity was determined based on body fat percentage.

Results

The mean 24-h urine sodium concentration was 3130 ± 2200 mg/day, equal to 7.961 ± 5.596 g/day salt intake. Approximately half of the study participants exceeded the upper limit of Na intake. The mean potassium intake was estimated 1480 ± 1050 mg/day. There was a positive association between urinary sodium excretion and adiposity in crude (OR 1.79; 95% CI: 1.08—2.74) and full adjusted model (OR: 3.15; 95% CI: 2.28–4.63). Also, in subsample analysis, there was a positive correlation between urinary sodium and adiposity in both pre-adolescents (OR: 2.71; 95% CI: 2.29—3.93) and adolescents (OR: 3.55; 95% CI: 2.17—4.74). However, no significant association was found between 24-h urinary potassium and adiposity.

Conclusion

Sodium intake, as estimated by 24-h urinary excretion, was higher than recommended and it was positively associated with adiposity. Also, this study reported low compliance of potassium intake recommendations in 11–18 years’ Iranian pre-adolescents and adolescents. Health promotion interventions are needed in order to broaden public awareness of high sodium intake and potassium inadequacy to reduce chronic diseases.

National and sub-national trends of salt intake in Iranians from 2000 to 2016: a systematic analysis

Background

One fifth of the global burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in 2017 was attributable to excessive salt intake. As a member of the World Health Organization (WHO), Iran has committed itself to a 30% reduction in salt intake by 2025. Evidence on the amount and trend of salt intake among the Iranian population at national and sub-national levels is scarce. This study aimed to estimate the Iranian population’s salt intake during 2000–2016 at the national and sub-national levels, by sex and age groups.

Methods

Data on national and sub-national mean salt intake was obtained through systematically searching the literature and contacting the research studies’ principal investigators. Data collected through various methods were harmonized using the cross-walk method. Bayesian hierarchical and spatio-temporal-age regression models and simulation analysis were used to estimate the mean salt intake and its uncertainty interval across sex, age, year, and province.

Results

National age-sex standardized mean salt intake decreased from 10·53 g/day (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 10·2 to 10·9) in 2000 to 9·41 (9·2 to 10·6) in 2016 (percent change: − 9·8% [− 21·1–3·1]). The age-standardized mean salt intake in women had decreased from 9·8 g/day (95% UI: 9·0–10·6) in 2000 to 9·1 g/day (8·6–9·7) in 2016 (percent change: − 6·6% [− 19·0–7·9]). The same measure in men was 11·1 g/day in 2000 (95% UI: 10·3–11·8) and 9·7 g/day (9·1–10·2) in 2016 (percent change: − 12·7% [− 23·0 – -0·9]).

Age-sex standardized mean salt intake at the sub-national level in 2016 varied from 8·0 (95% UI: 7·0–9·0) to 10·5 (10·0–11·1). The difference between the provinces with the highest and the lowest levels of salt intake in 2016 was 31·3%.

Conclusion

Salt intake decreased in Iran from 2000 to 2016, while persistently exceeding the recommended values. This declining trend was more pronounced between 2010 and 2016, which might be attributed to Iran’s compliance to WHO’s Action Plan for reducing NCDs.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13690-022-00871-w.

Global, regional, and national consumption of animal-source foods between 1990 and 2018: findings from the Global Dietary Database

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Validation and reproducibility of a semi-qualitative food frequency questionnaire for assessment of sodium intake in Iranian population

Background

Few semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaires (SFFQ)s has yet been developed to assess sodium intake in Middle East region. This study was performed to validate a SFFQ for assessment of sodium consumption and food groups΄ contribution to sodium intake.

Methods

This study was performed on 219 healthy participants including 113 adults aged ≥19 years and 106 children aged 6–18 years in Isfahan, Iran. They were administered two SFFQ at the beginning and after 1 year to evaluate the reproducibility. The validity of SFFQ for assessment of sodium intake was compared with 24-h urine sodium and twelve 24-h dietary recalls which were completed monthly during a year as two standard methods.

Results

Correlation coefficient between the contribution of food groups to sodium intake based on SFFQ and 24-h dietary recalls varied from 0.04 for legumes (P = 0.667) to 0.47 for added salt (P < 0.001). There was a significant correlation between the estimated total sodium intake based on SFFQ and both standard methods (P < 0.01). Intraclass correlation coefficient (95% CI) between first and second SFFQ had a diverse range from 0.10 (-0.05, 0.17) for fats and oils to 0.49 (0.28, 0.69) for bread. According to the Bland-Altman plots, we observed an acceptable level of agreement between the two methods for sodium intake.

Conclusions

The SFFQ was a relatively valid and reproducible method for estimating sodium intake. Combination of this SFFQ with a valid prediction of 24-h urinary sodium excretion can be useful in achieving more accurate results.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12937-021-00749-7.

Association of adherence to the dietary approach to stop hypertension and Mediterranean diets with blood pressure in a non-hypertensive population: Results from Isfahan Salt Study (ISS)

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Hypertension is among the major risk factors for cardiovascular events in the Iranian population. This cross-sectional study was designed to examine the association of adherence to the dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) and Mediterranean (MED) dietary patterns with the distribution of blood pressure and pre-hypertension prevalence.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This cross-sectional study was carried out in 1363 non-hypertensive adults. Adherence to the DASH and MED diets was calculated using a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Hypertension was measured by the standard method. Multiple logistic regression was applied to obtain the odds ratio of pre-hypertension in the tertiles of MED and DASH dietary patterns. Compared to the lowest, participants with the highest adherence to the DASH dietary pattern had significantly lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) (111.3 ± 11.8 vs. 112.8 ± 12.5; P = 0.010) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) (70.7 ± 9.2 vs. 71.8 ± 9.8; 0.042). There was no significant difference in the mean SBP and DBP among the participants across tertiles of MED or diet adherence. Higher scores of the DASH and MED diets were inversely associated with lower SBP after adjustment for all potential confounders (OR = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.29, -0.01, P = 0.039) and (OR = -0.04, 95% CI = -0.72, -0.02, P = 0.044), respectively. Also, DASH and MED dietary patterns was associated with reduced OR of pre-hypertension occurrence by 13% (OR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.70-0.98; P for trend = 0.042) and 16% ([OR: 0.84; 95% CI: 0.69-0.97; P trend = 0.035), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Adherence to the DASH and MED diets was inversely associated with the odds for pre-hypertension and SBP.