Bayesian risk prediction model for colorectal cancer mortality through integration of clinicopathologic and genomic data

Routine tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) staging of colorectal cancer is imperfect in predicting survival due to tumor pathobiological heterogeneity and imprecise assessment of tumor spread. We leveraged Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), a statistical learning technique, to comprehensively analyze patient-specific tumor characteristics for the improvement of prognostic prediction. Of 75 clinicopathologic, immune, microbial, and genomic variables in 815 stage II-III patients within two U.S.-wide prospective cohort studies, the BART risk model identified seven stable survival predictors. Risk stratifications (low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk) based on model-predicted survival were statistically significant (hazard ratios 0.19-0.45, vs. higher risk; P < 0.0001) and could be externally validated using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data (P = 0.0004). BART demonstrated model flexibility, interpretability, and comparable or superior performance to other machine-learning models. Integrated bioinformatic analyses using BART with tumor-specific factors can robustly stratify colorectal cancer patients into prognostic groups and be readily applied to clinical oncology practice.

Molecular Characteristics of Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer According to Detailed Anatomical Locations: Comparison With Later-Onset Cases

INTRODUCTION

Early-onset colorectal cancer diagnosed before the age of 50 years has been increasing. Likely reflecting the pathogenic role of the intestinal microbiome, which gradually changes across the entire colorectal length, the prevalence of certain tumor molecular characteristics gradually changes along colorectal subsites. Understanding how colorectal tumor molecular features differ by age and tumor location is important in personalized patient management.

METHODS

Using 14,004 cases with colorectal cancer including 3,089 early-onset cases, we examined microsatellite instability (MSI), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and KRAS and BRAF mutations in carcinomas of the cecum, ascending colon, transverse colon, descending colon, sigmoid colon, and rectum and compared early-onset cases with later-onset cases.

RESULTS

The proportions of MSI-high, CIMP-high, and BRAF -mutated early-onset tumors were lowest in the rectum (8.8%, 3.4%, and 3.5%, respectively) and highest in the ascending colon (46% MSI-high; 15% CIMP-high) or transverse colon (8.6% BRAF -mutated) (all Ptrend <0.001 across the rectum to ascending colon). Compared with later-onset tumors, early-onset tumors showed a higher prevalence of MSI-high status and a lower prevalence of CIMP-high status and BRAF mutations in most subsites. KRAS mutation prevalence was higher in the cecum compared with that in the other subsites in both early-onset and later-onset tumors ( P < 0.001). Notably, later-onset MSI-high tumors showed a continuous decrease in KRAS mutation prevalence from the rectum (36%) to ascending colon (9%; Ptrend <0.001), followed by an increase in the cecum (14%), while early-onset MSI-high cancers showed no such trend.

DISCUSSION

Our findings support biogeographical and pathogenic heterogeneity of colorectal carcinomas in different colorectal subsites and age groups.

Prognostic role of detailed colorectal location and tumor molecular features: analyses of 13,101 colorectal cancer patients including 2994 early-onset cases

BACKGROUND

The pathogenic effect of colorectal tumor molecular features may be influenced by several factors, including those related to microbiota, inflammation, metabolism, and epigenetics, which may change along colorectal segments. We hypothesized that the prognostic association of colon cancer location might differ by tumor molecular characteristics.

METHODS

Utilizing a consortium dataset of 13,101 colorectal cancer cases, including 2994 early-onset cases, we conducted survival analyses of detailed tumor location stratified by statuses of microsatellite instability (MSI), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and KRAS and BRAF oncogenic mutation.

RESULTS

There was a statistically significant trend for better colon cancer-specific survival in relation to tumor location from the cecum to sigmoid colon (Ptrend = 0.002), excluding the rectum. The prognostic association of colon location differed by MSI status (Pinteraction = 0.001). Non-MSI-high tumors exhibited the cecum-to-sigmoid trend for better colon cancer-specific survival [Ptrend < 0.001; multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for the sigmoid colon (vs. cecum), 0.80; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.70-0.92], whereas MSI-high tumors demonstrated a suggestive cecum-to-sigmoid trend for worse survival (Ptrend = 0.020; the corresponding HR, 2.13; 95% CI 1.15-3.92). The prognostic association of colon tumor location also differed by CIMP status (Pinteraction = 0.003) but not significantly by age, stage, or other features. Furthermore, MSI-high status was a favorable prognostic indicator in all stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Both detailed colonic location and tumor molecular features need to be accounted for colon cancer prognostication to advance precision medicine. Our study indicates the important role of large-scale studies to robustly examine detailed colonic subsites in molecular oncology research.

Molecular and Pathology Features of Colorectal Tumors and Patient Outcomes Are Associated with Fusobacterium nucleatum and Its Subspecies animalis

BACKGROUND

Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum) activates oncogenic signaling pathways and induces inflammation to promote colorectal carcinogenesis.

METHODS

We characterized F. nucleatum and its subspecies in colorectal tumors and examined associations with tumor characteristics and colorectal cancer-specific survival. We conducted deep sequencing of nusA, nusG, and bacterial 16s rRNA genes in tumors from 1,994 patients with colorectal cancer and assessed associations between F. nucleatum presence and clinical characteristics, colorectal cancer-specific mortality, and somatic mutations.

RESULTS

F. nucleatum, which was present in 10.3% of tumors, was detected in a higher proportion of right-sided and advanced-stage tumors, particularly subspecies animalis. Presence of F. nucleatum was associated with higher colorectal cancer-specific mortality (HR, 1.97; P = 0.0004). This association was restricted to nonhypermutated, microsatellite-stable tumors (HR, 2.13; P = 0.0002) and those who received chemotherapy [HR, 1.92; confidence interval (CI), 1.07-3.45; P = 0.029). Only F. nucleatum subspecies animalis, the main subspecies detected (65.8%), was associated with colorectal cancer-specific mortality (HR, 2.16; P = 0.0016), subspecies vincentii and nucleatum were not (HR, 1.07; P = 0.86). Additional adjustment for tumor stage suggests that the effect of F. nucleatum on mortality is partly driven by a stage shift. Presence of F. nucleatum was associated with microsatellite instable tumors, tumors with POLE exonuclease domain mutations, and ERBB3 mutations, and suggestively associated with TP53 mutations.

CONCLUSIONS

F. nucleatum, and particularly subspecies animalis, was associated with a higher colorectal cancer-specific mortality and specific somatic mutated genes.

IMPACT

Our findings identify the F. nucleatum subspecies animalis as negatively impacting colorectal cancer mortality, which may occur through a stage shift and its effect on chemoresistance.

Association Between Smoking and Molecular Subtypes of Colorectal Cancer

Background

Smoking is associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. Previous studies suggested this association may be restricted to certain molecular subtypes of CRC, but large-scale comprehensive analysis is lacking.

Methods

A total of 9789 CRC cases and 11 231 controls of European ancestry from 11 observational studies were included. We harmonized smoking variables across studies and derived sex study-specific quartiles of pack-years of smoking for analysis. Four somatic colorectal tumor markers were assessed individually and in combination, including BRAF mutation, KRAS mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and microsatellite instability (MSI) status. A multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between smoking and risk of CRC subtypes by molecular characteristics, adjusting for age, sex, and study. All statistical tests were 2-sided and adjusted for Bonferroni correction.

Results

Heavier smoking was associated with higher risk of CRC overall and stratified by individual markers (P trend < .001). The associations differed statistically significantly between all molecular subtypes, which was the most statistically significant for CIMP and BRAF. Compared with never-smokers, smokers in the fourth quartile of pack-years had a 90% higher risk of CIMP-positive CRC (odds ratio = 1.90, 95% confidence interval = 1.60 to 2.26) but only 35% higher risk for CIMP-negative CRC (odds ratio = 1.35, 95% confidence interval = 1.22 to 1.49; P difference = 2.1 x 10-6). The association was also stronger in tumors that were CIMP positive, MSI high, or KRAS wild type when combined (P difference < .001).

Conclusion

Smoking was associated with differential risk of CRC subtypes defined by molecular characteristics. Heavier smokers had particularly higher risk of CRC subtypes that were CIMP positive and MSI high in combination, suggesting that smoking may be involved in the development of colorectal tumors via the serrated pathway.

Association of Screening Lower Endoscopy With Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Adults Older Than 75 Years

Importance

Evidence indicates that screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) beginning at 50 years of age can detect early-stage CRC and premalignant neoplasms (eg, adenomas) and thus prevent CRC-related mortality. At present, the US Preventive Services Task Force recommends continuing CRC screening until 75 years of age and individualized decision-making for adults older than 75 years, while accounting for a patient's overall health and screening history. However, scant data exist to support these recommendations.

Objective

To examine the association of lower gastrointestinal tract screening endoscopy with the risk of CRC incidence and CRC-related mortality in older US adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This prospective cohort study of health care professionals in the US included data from the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS) from January 1, 1988, through January 31, 2016, for the HPFS and June 30, 2016, for the NHS. Data were analyzed from May 8, 2019, to July 9, 2020.

Exposures

History of screening sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy (routine/average risk or positive family history) to 75 years of age and after 75 years of age, assessed every 2 years.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence of CRC and CRC-related mortality confirmed by National Death Index, medical records, and pathology reports.

Results

Among 56 374 participants who reached 75 years of age during follow-up (36.8% men and 63.2% women), 661 incident CRC cases and 323 CRC-related deaths were documented. Screening endoscopy after 75 years of age was associated with reduced risk of CRC incidence (multivariable hazard ratio [HR], 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.74) and CRC-related mortality (HR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.46-0.78), regardless of screening history. The HR comparing screening with nonscreening after 75 years of age was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.50-0.89) for CRC incidence and 0.58 (95% CI, 0.38-0.87) for CRC-related mortality among participants who underwent screening endoscopy before 75 years of age, and 0.51 (95% CI, 0.37-0.70) for CRC incidence and 0.63 (95% CI, 0.43-0.93) for CRC-related mortality among participants without a screening history. However, screening endoscopy after 75 years of age was not associated with risk reduction in CRC death among participants with cardiovascular disease (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.59-2.35) or significant comorbidities (HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.57-2.43).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, endoscopy among individuals older than 75 years was associated with lower risk of CRC incidence and CRC-related mortality. These data support continuation of screening after 75 years of age among individuals without significant comorbidities.

Association of Fusobacterium nucleatum with Specific T-cell Subsets in the Colorectal Carcinoma Microenvironment

PURPOSE

While evidence indicates that Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum) may promote colorectal carcinogenesis through its suppressive effect on T-cell-mediated antitumor immunity, the specific T-cell subsets involved remain uncertain.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We measured F. nucleatum DNA within tumor tissue by quantitative PCR on 933 cases (including 128 F. nucleatum-positive cases) among 4,465 incident colorectal carcinoma cases in two prospective cohorts. Multiplex immunofluorescence combined with digital image analysis and machine learning algorithms for CD3, CD4, CD8, CD45RO (PTPRC isoform), and FOXP3 measured various T-cell subsets. We leveraged data on Bifidobacterium, microsatellite instability (MSI), tumor whole-exome sequencing, and M1/M2-type tumor-associated macrophages [TAM; by CD68, CD86, IRF5, MAF, and MRC1 (CD206) multimarker assay]. Using the 4,465 cancer cases and inverse probability weighting method to control for selection bias due to tissue availability, multivariable-adjusted logistic regression analysis assessed the association between F. nucleatum and T-cell subsets.

RESULTS

The amount of F. nucleatum was inversely associated with tumor stromal CD3+ lymphocytes [multivariable OR, 0.47; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.28-0.79, for F. nucleatum-high vs. -negative category; P trend = 0.0004] and specifically stromal CD3+CD4+CD45RO+ cells (corresponding multivariable OR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.32-0.85; P trend = 0.003). These relationships did not substantially differ by MSI status, neoantigen load, or exome-wide tumor mutational burden. F. nucleatum was not significantly associated with tumor intraepithelial T cells or with M1 or M2 TAMs.

CONCLUSIONS

The amount of tissue F. nucleatum is associated with lower density of stromal memory helper T cells. Our findings provide evidence for the interactive pathogenic roles of microbiota and specific immune cells.

Prognostic significance of myeloid immune cells and their spatial distribution in the colorectal cancer microenvironment

Background

Myeloid cells represent an abundant yet heterogeneous cell population in the colorectal cancer microenvironment, and their roles remain poorly understood.

Methods

We used multiplexed immunofluorescence combined with digital image analysis to identify CD14⁺ monocytic and CD15⁺ granulocytic cells and to evaluate their maturity (HLA-DR and CD33), immunosuppressive potential (ARG1) and proximity to cytokeratin (KRT)-positive tumor cells in 913 colorectal carcinomas. Using covariate data of 4465 incident colorectal cancers in two prospective cohort studies, the inverse probability weighting method was used with multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models to assess cancer-specific mortality according to ordinal quartiles (Q1–Q4) of myeloid cell densities. Immune cell–tumor cell proximity was measured with the nearest neighbor method and the G-cross function, which determines the likelihood of any tumor cell having at least one immune cell of the specified type within a certain radius.

Results

Higher intraepithelial (P_trend=0.0002; HR for Q4 (vs Q1), 0.48, 95% CI 0.31 to 0.76) and stromal (P_trend <0.0001; HR for Q4 (vs Q1), 0.42, 95% CI 0.29 to 0.63) densities of CD14⁺HLA-DR⁺ cells were associated with lower colorectal cancer-specific mortality while, conversely, higher intraepithelial densities of CD14⁺HLA-DR⁻ cells were associated with higher colorectal cancer-specific mortality (P_trend=0.0003; HR for Q4 (vs Q1), 1.78, 95% CI 1.25 to 2.55). Spatial analyses indicated that CD15⁺ cells were located closer to tumor cells than CD14⁺ cells, and CD14⁺HLA-DR⁺ cells were closer to tumor than CD14⁺HLA-DR⁻ cells (p<0.0001). The G-cross proximity measurement, evaluating the difference in the likelihood of any tumor cell being colocated with at least one CD14⁺HLA-DR⁺ cell versus CD14⁺HLA-DR⁻ cell within a 20 µm radius, was associated with lower colorectal cancer-specific mortality (P_trend <0.0001; HR for Q4 (vs Q1), 0.37, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.57).

Conclusions

Myeloid cell populations occur in spatially distinct distributions and exhibit divergent, subset-specific prognostic significance in colorectal cancer, with mature CD14⁺HLA-DR⁺ and immature CD14⁺HLA-DR⁻ monocytic phenotypes most notably showing opposite associations. These results highlight the prognostic utility of multimarker evaluation of myeloid cell infiltrates and reveal a previously unrecognized degree of spatial organization for myeloid cells in the immune microenvironment.

The Prognostic Role of Macrophage Polarization in the Colorectal Cancer Microenvironment

Macrophages are among the most common cells in the colorectal cancer microenvironment, but their prognostic significance is incompletely understood. Using multiplexed immunofluorescence for CD68, CD86, IRF5, MAF, MRC1 (CD206), and KRT (cytokeratins) combined with digital image analysis and machine learning, we assessed the polarization spectrum of tumor-associated macrophages in 931 colorectal carcinomas. We then applied Cox proportional hazards regression to assess prognostic survival associations of intraepithelial and stromal densities of M1-like and M2-like macrophages while controlling for potential confounders, including stage and microsatellite instability status. We found that high tumor stromal density of M2-like macrophages was associated with worse cancer-specific survival, whereas tumor stromal density of M1-like macrophages was not significantly associated with better cancer-specific survival. High M1:M2 density ratio in tumor stroma was associated with better cancer-specific survival. Overall macrophage densities in tumor intraepithelial or stromal regions were not prognostic. These findings suggested that macrophage polarization state, rather than their overall density, was associated with cancer-specific survival, with M1- and M2-like macrophage phenotypes exhibiting distinct prognostic roles. These results highlight the utility of a multimarker strategy to assess the macrophage polarization at single-cell resolution within the tumor microenvironment.

Intake of Dietary Fruit, Vegetables, and Fiber and Risk of Colorectal Cancer According to Molecular Subtypes: A Pooled Analysis of 9 Studies

Protective associations of fruits, vegetables, and fiber intake with colorectal cancer risk have been shown in many, but not all epidemiologic studies. One possible reason for study heterogeneity is that dietary factors may have distinct effects by colorectal cancer molecular subtypes. Here, we investigate the association of fruit, vegetables, and fiber intake with four well-established colorectal cancer molecular subtypes separately and in combination. Nine observational studies including 9,592 cases with molecular subtypes for microsatellite instability (MSI), CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and somatic mutations in BRAF and KRAS genes, and 7,869 controls were analyzed. Both case-only logistic regression analyses and polytomous logistic regression analyses (with one control set and multiple case groups) were used. Higher fruit intake was associated with a trend toward decreased risk of BRAF-mutated tumors [OR 4th vs. 1st quartile = 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.04)] but not BRAF-wildtype tumors [1.09 (0.97-1.22); P difference as shown in case-only analysis = 0.02]. This difference was observed in case-control studies and not in cohort studies. Compared with controls, higher fiber intake showed negative association with colorectal cancer risk for cases with microsatellite stable/MSI-low, CIMP-negative, BRAF-wildtype, and KRAS-wildtype tumors (P trend range from 0.03 to 3.4e-03), which is consistent with the traditional adenoma-colorectal cancer pathway. These negative associations were stronger compared with MSI-high, CIMP-positive, BRAF-mutated, or KRAS-mutated tumors, but the differences were not statistically significant. These inverse associations for fruit and fiber intake may explain, in part, inconsistent findings between fruit or fiber intake and colorectal cancer risk that have previously been reported. SIGNIFICANCE: These analyses by colorectal cancer molecular subtypes potentially explain the inconsistent findings between dietary fruit or fiber intake and overall colorectal cancer risk that have previously been reported.

Plasma IL-6 changes correlate to PD-1 inhibitor responses in NSCLC

BACKGROUND

Blood-based biomarkers of anti-solid tumor immune checkpoint blockade (ICB) response are lacking. We hypothesized that changes in systemic cytokine levels with the initial doses of programmed cell death protein 1 (PD-1) pathway inhibitors would correlate with clinical responses. New ultrasensitive ELISA technology enables quantitation of plasma proteins in sub-picogram-per-milliliter concentrations.

METHODS

We measured plasma cytokines by ultrasensitive single-molecule array assays in patients with non-small-cell lung carcinoma before and during treatment with anti-PD-1 therapy. Association with best overall response and progression-free survival (PFS) was assessed by Kruskall-Wallis test and Kaplan-Meier plots with log-rank test, respectively.

RESULTS

A decrease in interleukin 6 (IL-6) levels was associated with improved PFS (n=47 patients, median PFS: 11 vs 4 months, HR 0.45 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.89), p=0.04). The extent of change in IL-6 differed between best overall response categories (p=0.01) and correlated with changes in C reactive protein levels. We also explored plasma cytokine levels in relation to immune-related adverse effects and observed some correlation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests the presence of a systemic, proteomic reflection of successful ICB outside the tumor microenvironment with plasma decreases in IL-6 and CRP.

Prognostic Significance of Immune Cell Populations Identified by Machine Learning in Colorectal Cancer Using Routine Hematoxylin and Eosin-Stained Sections

PURPOSE

Although high T-cell density is a well-established favorable prognostic factor in colorectal cancer, the prognostic significance of tumor-associated plasma cells, neutrophils, and eosinophils is less well-defined.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We computationally processed digital images of hematoxylin and eosin (H&E)-stained sections to identify lymphocytes, plasma cells, neutrophils, and eosinophils in tumor intraepithelial and stromal areas of 934 colorectal cancers in two prospective cohort studies. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was used to compute mortality HR according to cell density quartiles. The spatial patterns of immune cell infiltration were studied using the GTumor:Immune cell function, which estimates the likelihood of any tumor cell in a sample having at least one neighboring immune cell of the specified type within a certain radius. Validation studies were performed on an independent cohort of 570 colorectal cancers.

RESULTS

Immune cell densities measured by the automated classifier demonstrated high correlation with densities both from manual counts and those obtained from an independently trained automated classifier (Spearman's ρ 0.71-0.96). High densities of stromal lymphocytes and eosinophils were associated with better cancer-specific survival [P trend < 0.001; multivariable HR (4th vs 1st quartile of eosinophils), 0.49; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.71]. High GTumor:Lymphocyte area under the curve (AUC0,20μm; P trend = 0.002) and high GTumor:Eosinophil AUC0,20μm (P trend < 0.001) also showed associations with better cancer-specific survival. High stromal eosinophil density was also associated with better cancer-specific survival in the validation cohort (P trend < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the potential for machine learning assessment of H&E-stained sections to provide robust, quantitative tumor-immune biomarkers for precision medicine.

Smoking Status at Diagnosis and Colorectal Cancer Prognosis According to Tumor Lymphocytic Reaction

Background

Smoking has been associated with worse colorectal cancer patient survival and may potentially suppress the immune response in the tumor microenvironment. We hypothesized that the prognostic association of smoking behavior at colorectal cancer diagnosis might differ by lymphocytic reaction patterns in cancer tissue.

Methods

Using 1474 colon and rectal cancer patients within 2 large prospective cohort studies (Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study), we characterized 4 patterns of histopathologic lymphocytic reaction, including tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs), intratumoral periglandular reaction, peritumoral lymphocytic reaction, and Crohn's-like lymphoid reaction. Using covariate data of 4420 incident colorectal cancer patients in total, an inverse probability weighted multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was conducted to adjust for selection bias due to tissue availability and potential confounders, including tumor differentiation, disease stage, microsatellite instability status, CpG island methylator phenotype, long interspersed nucleotide element-1 methylation, and KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations.

Results

The prognostic association of smoking status at diagnosis differed by TIL status. Compared with never smokers, the multivariable-adjusted colorectal cancer-specific mortality hazard ratio for current smokers was 1.50 (95% confidence interval = 1.10 to 2.06) in tumors with negative or low TIL and 0.43 (95% confidence interval = 0.16 to 1.12) in tumors with intermediate or high TIL (2-sided P _interaction = .009). No statistically significant interactions were observed in the other patterns of lymphocytic reaction.

Conclusions

The association of smoking status at diagnosis with colorectal cancer mortality may be stronger for carcinomas with negative or low TIL, suggesting a potential interplay of smoking and lymphocytic reaction in the colorectal cancer microenvironment.

Association of autophagy status with amount of Fusobacterium nucleatum in colorectal cancer

Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum), which has been associated with colorectal carcinogenesis, can impair anti-tumour immunity, and actively invade colon epithelial cells. Considering the critical role of autophagy in host defence against microorganisms, we hypothesised that autophagic activity of tumour cells might influence the amount of F. nucleatum in colorectal cancer tissue. Using 724 rectal and colon cancer cases within the Nurses' Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we evaluated autophagic activity of tumour cells by immunohistochemical analyses of BECN1 (beclin 1), MAP1LC3 (LC3), and SQSTM1 (p62) expression. We measured the amount of F. nucleatum DNA in tumour tissue by quantitative polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We conducted multivariable ordinal logistic regression analyses to examine the association of tumour BECN1, MAP1LC3, and SQSTM1 expression with the amount of F. nucleatum, adjusting for potential confounders, including microsatellite instability status; CpG island methylator phenotype; long-interspersed nucleotide element-1 methylation; and KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations. Compared with BECN1-low cases, BECN1-intermediate and BECN1-high cases were associated with lower amounts of F. nucleatum with odds ratios (for a unit increase in three ordinal categories of the amount of F. nucleatum) of 0.54 (95% confidence interval, 0.29-0.99) and 0.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.16-0.60), respectively (Ptrend  < 0.001 across ordinal BECN1 categories). Tumour MAP1LC3 and SQSTM1 levels were not significantly associated with the amount of F. nucleatum (Ptrend  > 0.06). Tumour BECN1, MAP1LC3, and SQSTM1 levels were not significantly associated with patient survival (Ptrend  > 0.10). In conclusion, tumour BECN1 expression is inversely associated with the amount of F. nucleatum in colorectal cancer tissue, suggesting a possible role of autophagy in the elimination of invasive microorganisms. © 2019 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An integrated analysis of lymphocytic reaction, tumour molecular characteristics and patient survival in colorectal cancer

BACKGROUND

Histological lymphocytic reaction is regarded as an independent prognostic marker in colorectal cancer. Considering the lack of adequate statistical power, adjustment for selection bias and comprehensive tumour molecular data in most previous studies, we investigated the strengths of the prognostic associations of lymphocytic reaction in colorectal carcinoma by utilising an integrative database of two prospective cohort studies.

METHODS

We examined Crohn's-like reaction, intratumoural periglandular reaction, peritumoural reaction and tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes in 1465 colorectal carcinoma cases. Using covariate data of 4420 colorectal cancer cases in total, inverse probability-weighted Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to control for selection bias (due to tissue availability) and potential confounders, including stage, MSI status, LINE-1 methylation, PTGS2 and CTNNB1 expression, KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations, and tumour neoantigen load.

RESULTS

Higher levels of each lymphocytic reaction component were associated with better colorectal cancer-specific survival (Ptrend < 0.002). Compared with cases with negative/low intratumoural periglandular reaction, multivariable-adjusted HRs were 0.55 (95% CI, 0.42-0.71) in cases with intermediate reaction and 0.20 (95% CI, 0.12-0.35) in cases with high reaction. These relationships were consistent in strata of MSI status or neoantigen loads (Pinteraction > 0.2).

CONCLUSIONS

The four lymphocytic reaction components are prognostic biomarkers in colorectal carcinoma.

Metabolic Profiling of Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embedded Tissues Discriminates Normal Colon from Colorectal Cancer

Accumulating evidence suggests that metabolic reprogramming has a critical role in carcinogenesis and tumor progression. The usefulness of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue material for metabolomics analysis as compared with fresh frozen tissue material remains unclear. LC/MS-MS-based metabolomics analysis was performed on 11 pairs of matched tumor and normal tissues in both FFPE and fresh frozen tissue materials from patients with colorectal carcinoma. Permutation t test was applied to identify metabolites with differential abundance between tumor and normal tissues. A total of 200 metabolites were detected in the FFPE samples and 536 in the fresh frozen samples. The preservation of metabolites in FFPE samples was diverse according to classes and chemical characteristics, ranging from 78% (energy) to 0% (peptides). Compared with the normal tissues, 34 (17%) and 174 (32%) metabolites were either accumulated or depleted in the tumor tissues derived from FFPE and fresh frozen samples, respectively. Among them, 15 metabolites were common in both FFPE and fresh frozen samples. Notably, branched chain amino acids were highly accumulated in tumor tissues. Using KEGG pathway analyses, glyoxylate and dicarboxylate metabolism, arginine and proline, glycerophospholipid, and glycine, serine, and threonine metabolism pathways distinguishing tumor from normal tissues were found in both FFPE and fresh frozen samples. This study demonstrates that informative data of metabolic profiles can be retrieved from FFPE tissue materials. IMPLICATIONS: Our findings suggest potential value of metabolic profiling using FFPE tumor tissues and may help to shape future translational studies through developing treatment strategies targeting metabolites.

Interlaboratory Evaluation of Two Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay Kits for the Determination of Crustacean Protein in Processed Foods

The labeling of foods containing material derived from crustaceans such as shrimp and crab is to become mandatory in Japan because of increases in the number of allergy patients. To ensure proper labeling, 2 novel sandwich enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) kits for the determination of crustacean protein in processed foods, the N kit (Nissui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd, Ibaraki, Japan) and the M kit (Maruha Nichiro Holdings, Inc., Ibaraki, Japan), have been developed. Five types of model processed foods containing 10 and/or 11.9 g/g crustacean soluble protein were prepared for interlaboratory evaluation of the performance of these kits. The N kit displayed a relatively high level of reproducibility relative standard deviation (interlaboratory precision; 4.08.4 RSDR) and sufficient recovery (6586) for all the model processed foods. The M kit displayed sufficient reproducibility (17.620.5 RSDR) and a reasonably high level of recovery (82103). The repeatability relative standard deviation (RSDr) values regarding the detection of crustacean proteins in the 5 model foods were mostly &lt;5.1 RSDr for the N kit and 9.9 RSDr for the M kit. In conclusion, the results of this interlaboratory evaluation suggest that both these ELISA kits would be very useful for detecting crustacean protein in processed foods.

Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay Kit for the Determination of Soybean Protein in Processed Foods: Interlaboratory Evaluation

The labeling of foods containing ingredients derived from soybean is recommended in Japan because of an increasing number of patients who are allergic to soybeans. To ensure proper labeling, a novel sandwich ELISA kit for the determination of soybean protein in processed foods (FASTKIT Ver. II, Soybean, Nippon Meat Packers, Inc.; soy kit) has been developed. Five types of incurred samples (model processed foods: rice gruel, sausage, sweet adzuki bean soup, sweet potato cake, and tomato sauce) containing 10 g soybean soluble protein/g food were prepared for use in interlaboratory evaluations of the soy kit. The soy kit displayed a sufficient RSDR value (interlaboratory precision: 9.313.4 RSDR) and a high level of recovery (97114) for all the incurred samples. The RSDr value for the incurred samples was mostly &lt;4.8. The results of this interlaboratory evaluation suggest that the soy kit can be used as a precise and reliable tool for the determination of soybean proteins in processed foods.

Dietary Intake of Branched-Chain Amino Acids and Risk of Colorectal Cancer

Branched-chain amino acids (BCAA) are essential amino acids, and emerging evidence suggests that BCAAs may mediate pathways related to cancer progression, possibly due to their involvement in insulin metabolism. We investigated the association between dietary intake of BCAAs with colorectal cancer risk in three prospective cohorts: the Nurses' Health Study I [(NHS), number of participants (n) at baseline = 77,017], NHS II (n = 92,984), and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study [(HPFS) n = 47,255]. Validated food frequency questionnaires were administered every 4 years and follow-up questionnaires on lifestyle biennially. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models. Pooled HRs were obtained using random effect models. After up to 28 years of follow-up, 1,660 cases were observed in NHS, 306 in NHS II, and 1,343 in HPFS. In multivariable adjusted models, we observed a weak inverse association between BCAA intake and colorectal cancer [highest vs. lowest quintile, pooled HR including all three cohorts (95% CI): 0.89 (0.80-1.00), P _trend = 0.06, HR per standard deviation (SD) increment 0.95 (0.92-0.99)]. However, after including dairy calcium to the models, BCAA intake was no longer associated with risk of colorectal cancer [HR 0.96 (0.85-1.08), P _trend = 0.50, HR per SD increment 0.97 (0.93-1.01)]. We did not find evidence that higher dietary BCAA intake is associated with higher risk of colorectal cancer. As this is the first prospective study to examine the association between BCAA intake and colorectal cancer, our findings warrant investigation in other cohorts.

Night-Shift Work Duration and Risk of Colorectal Cancer According to IRS1 and IRS2 Expression

BACKGROUND

We hypothesized that the risk of colorectal cancer in night-shift workers might be different according to insulin receptor substrate status.

METHODS

Among 77,470 eligible women having night work assessed in the Nurses' Health Study, we documented a total of 1,397 colorectal cancer cases, of which 304 or 308 had available data on IRS1 and IRS2, respectively. We used duplication-method Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for competing risks to calculate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each colorectal cancer subtype. We measured tumor IRS1 or IRS2 expression by immunohistochemistry (IHC).

RESULTS

Compared with women who never worked night shifts, those working ≥15 years night shifts had a marginal trend of increased overall risk of colorectal cancer (P _trend = 0.06; multivariable HR = 1.20; 95% CI, 0.99-1.45). Longer duration of night-shift work was associated with a higher risk of IRS2-positive tumors (multivariable HR = 2.69; 95% CI, 1.48-4.89; P _trend = 0.001, ≥15 years night shifts vs. never) but not with IRS2-negative tumors (multivariable HR = 0.90; 95% CI, 0.54-1.51; P _trend = 0.72; P _{heterogeneity} for IRS2 = 0.008). Similarly, the corresponding multivariable HRs were 1.81 for IRS1-positive tumors (95% CI, 0.94-3.48; P _trend = 0.06) and 1.13 for IRS1-negative tumors (95% CI, 0.71-1.80; P _trend = 0.56; P _{heterogeneity} for IRS1 = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

Our molecular pathologic epidemiology data suggest a potential role of IRS in mediating carcinogenesis induced by night-shift work.

IMPACT

Although these findings need validation, rotating night shift might increase colorectal cancer risk in women with abnormal insulin receptor pathways.

Proceedings of the fourth international molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) meeting

An important premise of epidemiology is that individuals with the same disease share similar underlying etiologies and clinical outcomes. In the past few decades, our knowledge of disease pathogenesis has improved, and disease classification systems have evolved to the point where no complex disease processes are considered homogenous. As a result, pathology and epidemiology have been integrated into the single, unified field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE). Advancing integrative molecular and population-level health sciences and addressing the unique research challenges specific to the field of MPE necessitates assembling experts in diverse fields, including epidemiology, pathology, biostatistics, computational biology, bioinformatics, genomics, immunology, and nutritional and environmental sciences. Integrating these seemingly divergent fields can lead to a greater understanding of pathogenic processes. The International MPE Meeting Series fosters discussion that addresses the specific research questions and challenges in this emerging field. The purpose of the meeting series is to: discuss novel methods to integrate pathology and epidemiology; discuss studies that provide pathogenic insights into population impact; and educate next-generation scientists. Herein, we share the proceedings of the Fourth International MPE Meeting, held in Boston, MA, USA, on 30 May-1 June, 2018. Major themes of this meeting included 'integrated genetic and molecular pathologic epidemiology', 'immunology-MPE', and 'novel disease phenotyping'. The key priority areas for future research identified by meeting attendees included integration of tumor immunology and cancer disparities into epidemiologic studies, further collaboration between computational and population-level scientists to gain new insight on exposure-disease associations, and future pooling projects of studies with comparable data.

Myc targeted CDK18 promotes ATR and homologous recombination to mediate PARP inhibitor resistance in glioblastoma

PARP inhibitors (PARPis) have clinical efficacy in BRCA-deficient cancers, but not BRCA-intact tumors, including glioblastoma (GBM). We show that MYC or MYCN amplification in patient-derived glioblastoma stem-like cells (GSCs) generates sensitivity to PARPi via Myc-mediated transcriptional repression of CDK18, while most tumors without amplification are not sensitive. In response to PARPi, CDK18 facilitates ATR activation by interacting with ATR and regulating ATR-Rad9/ATR-ETAA1 interactions; thereby promoting homologous recombination (HR) and PARPi resistance. CDK18 knockdown or ATR inhibition in GSCs suppressed HR and conferred PARPi sensitivity, with ATR inhibitors synergizing with PARPis or sensitizing GSCs. ATR inhibitor VE822 combined with PARPi extended survival of mice bearing GSC-derived orthotopic tumors, irrespective of PARPi-sensitivity. These studies identify a role of CDK18 in ATR-regulated HR. We propose that combined blockade of ATR and PARP is an effective strategy for GBM, even for low-Myc GSCs that do not respond to PARPi alone, and potentially other PARPi-refractory tumors.

PARP inhibitors are mainly used to treat BRCA1/2 mutated cancers. Here, the authors show that MYC amplified glioblastomas are sensitive to PARP inhibition due to CDK18 repression, which impairs ATR regulated homologous recombination repair, and that ATR inhibition sensitises glioblastomas to PARP inhibition.

Abstract 630: Smoking is associated with risks of molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer

Background: Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk; but limited evidence has shown the association between smoking and molecular subtypes of CRC.

Methods: We analyzed 9,422 CRC cases and 9,950 controls from 10 observational studies. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed to assess the association between sex-study-specific quartiles of pack years of smoking and risk of CRC molecular subtypes, using non-smokers as reference group, adjusting for age, sex, and study. Known oncogenic mutations in four somatic colorectal tumor markers were assessed individually and in combination, including BRAF mutations, KRAS mutations, CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), and microsatellite instability (MSI) status. Case-only analysis was also performed to estimate heterogeneity in risk of molecular subtypes of CRC.

Results: Compared with controls, higher pack years of smoking were statistically significantly associated with increased CRC risk when stratified, individually, by all four markers, and the associations got stronger with higher quartiles pack years (p-trend&lt;0.001). Associations between smoking and CRC risk also differed significantly among molecular subtypes. Compared to nonsmokers, the risk of BRAFmut CRC was 83% higher for smokers within the highest quartile of pack-years (OR=1.83; 95% CI: 1.50, 2.25), and 29% higher for BRAFwt CRC (OR=1.29; 95% CI: 1.17, 1.43; Ratio of ORs (ROR)=1.45; 95% CI: 1.18, 1.17; p=3.45x10-4). Similarly, heavy pack-years of smoking was associated with almost two times higher risk of CIMP-high CRC (OR=1.93; 95% CI: 1.60, 2.31), but only 33% higher risk of CIMP-low/negative CRC (OR=1.33; 95% CI: 1.19, 1.48; ROR=1.49; 95% CI: 1.24, 1.79; p=1.72x10-5). The association between smoking and CRC was also stronger in MSI-high tumors (ORMSI-H=1.65; 95% CI: 1.36, 2.00; ORMSI-L/MSS=1.37; 95% CI: 1.23, 1.52; ROR=1.22; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.48; p=0.046). In contrast, the association between smoking and CRC risk was stronger for KRASwt (OR=1.43; 95% CI: 1.27, 1.60), than KRASmut tumors (OR=1.18; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.37; ROR=0.83; 95% CI: 0.71, 0.97; p =0.016). When combining tumor markers, smoking was found to be significantly associated with higher risk of colorectal tumors from the serrated pathway.

Conclusion: In this largest study with a total of 19,372 subjects, we found that heavier pack years of smoking was associated with increased risk of all CRC molecular subtypes. Smokers with heavier pack-years of smoking had particularly higher risk of CRC subtypes with BRAF mutation and CIMP-high, suggesting smoking may be particularly involved in the development of these subtypes of colorectal tumor.

Citation Format: Xiaoliang Wang, Efrat Amitay, Barbara L. Banbury, Hermann Brenner, Daniel D. Buchanan, Peter T. Campbell, Jenny Chang-Claude, Steven J. Gallinger, Graham G. Giles, Tabitha A. Harrison, John L. Hopper, Mark A. Jenkins, Yi Lin, Reiko Nishihara, Polly A. Newcomb, Shuji Ogino, Lori C. Sakoda, Robert E. Schoen, Martha L. Slattery, Steven N. Thibodeau, Bethany Van Guelpen, Michael O. Woods, Li Hsu, Michael Hoffmeister, Ulrike Peters. Smoking is associated with risks of molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2019; 2019 Mar 29-Apr 3; Atlanta, GA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 630.

Dietary intake of fiber, whole grains and risk of colorectal cancer: An updated analysis according to food sources, tumor location and molecular subtypes in two large US cohorts

Epidemiologic evidence relating fiber intake to colorectal cancer (CRC) remains inconclusive and data are limited on different food sources of fiber and heterogeneity by tumor subsite and molecular profile. We prospectively followed for CRC incidence 90,869 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2012) and 47,924 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2012), who completed a validated food frequency questionnaire every 4 years. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to examine the associations with CRC risk for total, cereal, fruit and vegetable fiber and whole grains. We also assessed the associations according to tumor subsites (proximal colon, distal colon and rectum) and molecular markers (microsatellite instability, BRAF mutation, CpG island methylator phenotype and KRAS mutation). We documented 3,178 CRC cases during 3,685,903 person-years of follow-up in the NHS and HPFS. Intake of total dietary fiber was not associated with CRC risk after multivariable adjustment in either women (hazard ratio [HR] comparing extreme deciles, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.92-1.48, p_trend = 0.55) or men (HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.67-1.21, p_trend = 0.47). Higher intake of cereal fiber and whole grains was associated with lower CRC risk in men with an HR of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.57-1.00) and 0.72 (95% CI, 0.54-0.96), respectively. No heterogeneity was detected by tumor subsite or molecular markers (p_{heterogeneity}  > 0.05). Higher intake of total dietary fiber within the range of a typical American diet is unlikely to substantially reduce CRC risk. The potential benefit of cereal fiber and whole grains in men warrants further confirmation.

Calcium intake and colon cancer risk subtypes by tumor molecular characteristics

BACKGROUND

A preventive potential of high calcium intake against colorectal cancer has been indicated for distal colon cancer, which is inversely associated with high-level CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), high-level microsatellite instability (MSI), and BRAF and PIK3CA mutations. In addition, BRAF mutation is strongly inversely correlated with KRAS mutation. We hypothesized that the association between calcium intake and colon cancer risk might vary by these molecular features.

METHODS

We prospectively followed 88,506 women from the Nurses' Health Study and 47,733 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study for up to 30 years. Duplication-method Cox proportional cause-specific hazards regression was used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for the associations between calcium intake and the risk of colon cancer subtypes. By Bonferroni correction, the α-level was adjusted to 0.01.

RESULTS

Based on 853 colon cancer cases, the inverse association between dietary calcium intake and colon cancer risk differed by CIMP status (p_{heterogeneity} = 0.01). Per each 300 mg/day increase in intake, multivariable HRs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.76-0.94) for CIMP-negative/low and 1.12 (95% CI 0.93-1.34) for CIMP-high. Similar differential associations were suggested for MSI subtypes (p_{heterogeneity} = 0.02), with the corresponding HR being 0.86 (95% CI 0.77-0.95) for non-MSI-high and 1.10 (95% CI 0.92-1.32) for MSI-high. No differential associations were observed by BRAF, KRAS, or PIK3CA mutations.

CONCLUSION

The inverse association between dietary calcium intake and colon cancer risk may be specific to CIMP-negative/low and possibly non-MSI-high subtypes.

Prognostic association of PTGS2 (COX-2) over-expression according to BRAF mutation status in colorectal cancer: Results from two prospective cohorts and CALGB 89803 (Alliance) trial

BACKGROUND

Prostaglandin-endoperoxide synthase 2 (PTGS2, cyclooxygenase-2, COX-2)-prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) pathway promotes tumour progression. Considering evidence suggesting increased PGE2 synthesis by BRAF mutation in tumour cells, we hypothesised that the association of tumour PTGS2 (COX-2) expression with colorectal cancer mortality might be stronger in BRAF-mutated tumours than in BRAF-wild-type tumours.

METHODS

Using 1708 patients, including 1200 stage I-IV colorectal carcinoma cases in the Nurses' Health Study (NHS) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS) and 508 stage III colon cancer cases in a National Cancer Institute-sponsored randomised controlled trial of adjuvant therapy (CALGB/Alliance 89803), we evaluated tumour PTGS2 (COX-2) expression status using immunohistochemistry. We examined the prognostic association of PTGS2 (COX-2) expression in strata of BRAF mutation status by multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to adjust for potential confounders, including disease stage, tumour differentiation, microsatellite instability status and KRAS and PIK3CA mutations.

RESULTS

In NHS and HPFS, the association of PTGS2 (COX-2) expression with colorectal cancer-specific survival differed by BRAF mutation status (Pinteraction = 0.0005); compared with PTGS2 (COX-2)-negative/low carcinomas, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for PTGS2 (COX-2)-high carcinomas were 2.44 (95% confidence interval, 1.39-4.28) in BRAF-mutated cases and 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.65-1.04) in BRAF-wild-type cases. Differential prognostic associations of PTGS2 (COX-2) expression in strata of BRAF mutation status were similarly observed in CALGB/Alliance 89803 trial (Pinteraction = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

The association of tumour PTGS2 (COX-2) expression with colorectal cancer mortality is stronger in BRAF-mutated tumours than in BRAF-wild-type tumours, supporting interactive roles of PTGS2 (COX-2) expression and BRAF mutation statuses in prognostication of patients with colorectal cancer; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier, NCT00003835.

Oxytocin levels and sex differences in autism spectrum disorder with severe intellectual disabilities

There were few reports of oxytocin (OXT) concentrations of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) patients with severe intellectual disabilities. We measured serum OXT concentrations in 79 hospitalized patients with severe intellectual disabilities (16-60 years old, 50 males and 29 females, 54 ASD patients) and investigated the associations between serum OXT concentration, symptom scores, sex differences, and autism spectrum disorder. There were no significant effects of diagnosis, severity of intellectual disabilities, and total score of the Japanese version of the Aberrant Behavior Checklist (ABC-J), the Childhood Autism Rating Scale-Tokyo Version (CARS-TV), and the Japanese version of the Repetitive Behavior Scale-Revised (RBS-R). However, there were sex differences in the correlations between OXT concentrations and subscale scores in the ASD group. The male ASD group (n = 39) showed negative correlations between RBS-R Self-injurious and Sameness subscale scores and serum OXT concentrations. In the female ASD group(n = 15), CARS-TV Nonverbal communication subscale scores and RBS-R Compulsive subscale scores were seen to positively correlate with serum OXT concentrations. These findings suggest that OXT functions differ in males and females with severe intellectual disabilities and that OXT partly affects autism and related to some of the repetitive behaviors and nonverbal communication, in ASD patients with severe intellectual disabilities.

Calcium Intake and Risk of Colorectal Cancer According to Tumor-infiltrating T Cells

Calcium intake has been associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer. Calcium signaling may enhance T-cell proliferation and differentiation, and contribute to T-cell-mediated antitumor immunity. In this prospective cohort study, we investigated the association between calcium intake and colorectal cancer risk according to tumor immunity status to provide additional insights into the role of calcium in colorectal carcinogenesis. The densities of tumor-infiltrating T-cell subsets [CD3⁺, CD8⁺ , CD45RO (PTPRC) ⁺ , or FOXP3⁺ cell] were assessed using IHC and computer-assisted image analysis in 736 cancer cases that developed among 136,249 individuals in two cohorts. HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression. Total calcium intake was associated with a multivariable HR of 0.55 (comparing ≥1,200 vs. <600 mg/day; 95% CI, 0.36-0.84; P _trend = 0.002) for CD8⁺ T-cell-low but not for CD8⁺ T-cell-high tumors (HR = 1.02; 95% CI, 0.67-1.55; P _trend = 0.47). Similarly, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for calcium for low versus high T-cell-infiltrated tumors were 0.63 (0.42-0.94; P _trend = 0.01) and 0.89 (0.58-1.35; P _trend = 0.20) for CD3⁺ ; 0.58 (0.39-0.87; P _trend = 0.006) and 1.04 (0.69-1.58; P _trend = 0.54) for CD45RO⁺ ; and 0.56 (0.36-0.85; P _trend = 0.006) and 1.10 (0.72-1.67; P _trend = 0.47) for FOXP3⁺ , although the differences by subtypes defined by T-cell density were not statistically significant. These potential differential associations generally appeared consistent regardless of sex, source of calcium intake, tumor location, and tumor microsatellite instability status. Our findings suggest a possible role of calcium in cancer immunoprevention via modulation of T-cell function.

Insights into Pathogenic Interactions Among Environment, Host, and Tumor at the Crossroads of Molecular Pathology and Epidemiology

Evidence indicates that diet, nutrition, lifestyle, the environment, the microbiome, and other exogenous factors have pathogenic roles and also influence the genome, epigenome, transcriptome, proteome, and metabolome of tumor and nonneoplastic cells, including immune cells. With the need for big-data research, pathology must transform to integrate data science fields, including epidemiology, biostatistics, and bioinformatics. The research framework of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) demonstrates the strengths of such an interdisciplinary integration, having been used to study breast, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancers. The MPE research paradigm not only can provide novel insights into interactions among environment, tumor, and host but also opens new research frontiers. New developments-such as computational digital pathology, systems biology, artificial intelligence, and in vivo pathology technologies-will further transform pathology and MPE. Although it is necessary to address the rarity of transdisciplinary education and training programs, MPE provides an exemplary model of integrative scientific approaches and contributes to advancements in precision medicine, therapy, and prevention.

Physical Activity and Colorectal Cancer Prognosis According to Tumor-Infiltrating T Cells

Background

Evidence suggests that high-level physical activity may potentially reduce cancer mortality through its immune enhancement effect. We therefore hypothesized that survival benefits associated with physical activity might be stronger in colorectal carcinomas with lower immune reaction at diagnosis.

Methods

Using molecular pathological epidemiology databases of 470 colon and rectal carcinoma cases in the Nurses’ Health Study and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we assessed the prognostic association of postdiagnosis physical activity in strata of densities of CD3⁺ cells, CD8⁺ cells, CD45RO (PTPRC)⁺ cells, or FOXP3⁺ cells in tumor tissue. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders, including microsatellite instability, CpG island methylator phenotype, long interspersed nucleotide element-1 methylation, KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations, and expression of CTNNB1 (beta-catenin), PTGS2 (cyclooxygenase-2), and IRS1.

Results

The association of postdiagnosis physical activity with colorectal cancer-specific mortality differed by CD3⁺ cell density (P_interaction < .001). Multivariable-adjusted colorectal cancer-specific mortality hazard ratios for a quartile-unit increase in physical activity were 0.56 (95% confidence interval = 0.38 to 0.83) among cases with the lowest quartile of CD3⁺ cell density compared with 1.14 (95% confidence interval = 0.79 to 1.65) in cases with the highest quartile. We observed no differential survival association of physical activity by densities of CD8⁺ cells, CD45RO⁺ cells, or FOXP3⁺ cells.

Conclusions

The association between postdiagnosis physical activity and colorectal cancer survival appeared stronger for carcinomas with lower T cell infiltrates, suggesting an interactive effect of exercise and immunity on colorectal cancer progression.

Smoking and Risk of Colorectal Cancer Sub-Classified by Tumor-Infiltrating T Cells

Background

Evidence indicates not only carcinogenic effect of cigarette smoking but also its immunosuppressive effect. We hypothesized that the association of smoking with colorectal cancer risk might be stronger for tumors with lower anti-tumor adaptive immune response.

Methods

During follow-up of 134 981 participants (3 490 851 person-years) in the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we documented 729 rectal and colon cancer cases with available data on T-cell densities in tumor microenvironment. Using the duplication-method Cox regression model, we examined a differential association of smoking status with risk of colorectal carcinoma subclassified by densities of CD3+ cells, CD8+ cells, CD45RO (PTPRC)+ cells, or FOXP3+ cells. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

The association of smoking status with colorectal cancer risk differed by CD3+ cell density (Pheterogeneity = .007). Compared with never smokers, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for CD3+ cell-low colorectal cancer were 1.38 (95% confidence interval = 1.09 to 1.75) in former smokers and 1.59 (95% confidence interval = 1.14 to 2.23) in current smokers (Ptrend = .002, across smoking status categories). In contrast, smoking status was not associated with CD3+ cell-high cancer risk (Ptrend = .52). This differential association appeared consistent in strata of microsatellite instability, CpG island methylator phenotype, or BRAF mutation status. There was no statistically significant differential association according to densities of CD8+ cells, CD45RO+ cells, or FOXP3+ cells (Pheterogeneity > .04, with adjusted α of 0.01).

Conclusions

Colorectal cancer risk increased by smoking was stronger for tumors with lower T-lymphocyte response, suggesting an interplay of smoking and immunity in colorectal carcinogenesis.

SMAD4 Loss in Colorectal Cancer Patients Correlates with Recurrence, Loss of Immune Infiltrate, and Chemoresistance

PURPOSE

SMAD4 has shown promise in identifying patients with colorectal cancer at high risk of recurrence or death.Experimental Design: A discovery cohort and independent validation cohort were classified by SMAD4 status. SMAD4 status and immune infiltrate measurements were tested for association with recurrence-free survival (RFS). Patient-derived xenografts from SMAD4-deficient and SMAD4-retained tumors were used to examine chemoresistance.

RESULTS

The discovery cohort consisted of 364 patients with stage I-IV colorectal cancer. Median age at diagnosis was 53 years. The cohort consisted of 61% left-sided tumors and 62% stage II/III patients. Median follow-up was 5.4 years (interquartile range, 2.3-8.2). SMAD4 loss, noted in 13% of tumors, was associated with higher tumor and nodal stage, adjuvant therapy use, fewer tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL), and lower peritumoral lymphocyte aggregate (PLA) scores (all P < 0.04). SMAD4 loss was associated with worse RFS (P = 0.02). When stratified by SMAD4 and immune infiltrate status, patients with SMAD4 loss and low TIL or PLA had worse RFS (P = 0.002 and P = 0.006, respectively). Among patients receiving 5-fluorouracil (5-FU)-based systemic chemotherapy, those with SMAD4 loss had a median RFS of 3.8 years compared with 13 years for patients with SMAD4 retained. In xenografted mice, the SMAD4-lost tumors displayed resistance to 5-FU. An independent cohort replicated our findings, in particular, the association of SMAD4 loss with decreased immune infiltrate, as well as worse disease-specific survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show SMAD4 loss correlates with worse clinical outcome, resistance to chemotherapy, and decreased immune infiltrate, supporting its use as a prognostic marker in patients with colorectal cancer.

The Amount of Bifidobacterium Genus in Colorectal Carcinoma Tissue in Relation to Tumor Characteristics and Clinical Outcome

Evidence indicates a complex link between microbiota, tumor characteristics, and host immunity in the tumor microenvironment. In experimental studies, bifidobacteria appear to modulate intestinal epithelial cell differentiation. Accumulating evidence suggests that bifidobacteria may enhance the antitumor immunity and efficacy of immunotherapy. We hypothesized that the amount of bifidobacteria in colorectal carcinoma tissue might be associated with tumor differentiation and higher immune response to colorectal cancer. Using a molecular pathologic epidemiology database of 1313 rectal and colon cancers, we measured the amount of Bifidobacterium DNA in carcinoma tissue by a quantitative PCR assay. The multivariable regression model was used to adjust for potential confounders, including microsatellite instability status, CpG island methylator phenotype, long-interspersed nucleotide element-1 methylation, and KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations. Intratumor bifidobacteria were detected in 393 cases (30%). The amount of bifidobacteria was associated with the extent of signet ring cells (P = 0.002). Compared with Bifidobacterium-negative cases, multivariable odd ratios for the extent of signet ring cells were 1.29 (95% CI, 0.74-2.24) for Bifidobacterium-low cases and 1.87 (95% CI, 1.16-3.02) for Bifidobacterium-high cases (Ptrend = 0.01). The association between intratumor bifidobacteria and signet ring cells suggests a possible role of bifidobacteria in determining distinct tumor characteristics or as an indicator of dysfunctional mucosal barrier in colorectal cancer.

Vitamin D status after colorectal cancer diagnosis and patient survival according to immune response to tumour

BACKGROUND

High-level plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] has been associated with lower colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Considering evidence indicating immunomodulatory effects of vitamin D, we hypothesised that survival benefits from high systemic vitamin D level might be stronger for colorectal carcinoma with lower immune response to tumour.

METHODS

Using 869 colon and rectal cancer cases within the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we assessed the prognostic association of postdiagnosis 25(OH)D score [derived from diet and lifestyle variables to predict plasma 25(OH)D level] in strata of levels of histopathologic lymphocytic reaction. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was adjusted for potential confounders, including microsatellite instability, CpG island methylator phenotype, LINE-1 methylation, PTGS2 (cyclooxygenase-2) expression and KRAS, BRAF and PIK3CA mutations.

RESULTS

The association of postdiagnosis 25(OH)D score with colorectal cancer-specific mortality differed by levels of peritumoural lymphocytic reaction (pinteraction = 0.001). Multivariable-adjusted mortality hazard ratios for a quintile-unit increase of 25(OH)D score were 0.69 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.54-0.89] in cases with negative/low peritumoural lymphocytic reaction, 1.08 (95% CI, 0.93-1.26) in cases with intermediate peritumoural reaction and 1.25 (95% CI, 0.75-2.09) in cases with high peritumoural reaction. The survival association of the 25(OH)D score did not significantly differ by Crohn's-like lymphoid reaction, intratumoural periglandular reaction or tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between the 25(OH)D score and colorectal cancer survival is stronger for carcinomas with lower peritumoural lymphocytic reaction. Our results suggesting interactive effects of vitamin D and immune response may contribute to personalised dietary and lifestyle intervention strategies.

Diets That Promote Colon Inflammation Associate With Risk of Colorectal Carcinomas That Contain Fusobacterium nucleatum

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Specific nutritional components are likely to induce intestinal inflammation, which is characterized by increased levels of interleukin 6 (IL6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and tumor necrosis factor-receptor superfamily member 1B (TNFRSF1B) in the circulation and promotes colorectal carcinogenesis. The inflammatory effects of a diet can be estimated based on an empiric dietary inflammatory pattern (EDIP) score, calculated based on intake of 18 foods associated with plasma levels of IL6, CRP, and TNFRSF1B. An inflammatory environment in the colon (based on increased levels of IL6, CRP, and TNFRSF1B in peripheral blood) contributes to impairment of the mucosal barrier and altered immune cell responses, affecting the composition of the intestinal microbiota. Colonization by Fusobacterium nucleatum has been associated with the presence and features of colorectal adenocarcinoma. We investigated the association between diets that promote inflammation (based on EDIP score) and colorectal cancer subtypes classified by level of F nucleatum in the tumor microenvironment.

METHODS

We calculated EDIP scores based on answers to food frequency questionnaires collected from participants in the Nurses' Health Study (through June 1, 2012) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (through January 31, 2012). Participants in both cohorts reported diagnoses of rectal or colon cancer in biennial questionnaires; deaths from unreported colorectal cancer cases were identified through the National Death Index and next of kin. Colorectal tumor tissues were collected from hospitals where the patients underwent tumor resection and F nucleatum DNA was quantified by a polymerase chain reaction assay. We used multivariable duplication-method Cox proportional hazard regression to assess the associations of EDIP scores with risks of colorectal cancer subclassified by F nucleatum status.

RESULTS

During 28 years of follow-up evaluation of 124,433 participants, we documented 951 incident cases of colorectal carcinoma with tissue F nucleatum data. Higher EDIP scores were associated with increased risk of F nucleatum-positive colorectal tumors (P_trend = .03); for subjects in the highest vs lowest EDIP score tertiles, the hazard ratio for F nucleatum-positive colorectal tumors was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.03-2.58). EDIP scores did not associate with F nucleatum-negative tumors (P_trend = .44). High EDIP scores associated with proximal F nucleatum-positive colorectal tumors but not with proximal F nucleatum-negative colorectal tumors (P_{heterogeneity} = .003).

CONCLUSIONS

Diets that may promote intestinal inflammation, based on EDIP score, are associated with increased risk of F nucleatum-positive colorectal carcinomas, but not carcinomas that do not contain these bacteria. These findings indicate that diet-induced intestinal inflammation alters the gut microbiome to contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis; nutritional interventions might be used in precision medicine and cancer prevention.

Continuity of transcriptomes among colorectal cancer subtypes based on meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous approaches to defining subtypes of colorectal carcinoma (CRC) and other cancers based on transcriptomes have assumed the existence of discrete subtypes. We analyze gene expression patterns of colorectal tumors from a large number of patients to test this assumption and propose an approach to identify potentially a continuum of subtypes that are present across independent studies and cohorts.

RESULTS

We examine the assumption of discrete CRC subtypes by integrating 18 published gene expression datasets and > 3700 patients, and contrary to previous reports, find no evidence to support the existence of discrete transcriptional subtypes. Using a meta-analysis approach to identify co-expression patterns present in multiple datasets, we identify and define robust, continuously varying subtype scores to represent CRC transcriptomes. The subtype scores are consistent with established subtypes (including microsatellite instability and previously proposed discrete transcriptome subtypes), but better represent overall transcriptional activity than do discrete subtypes. The scores are also better predictors of tumor location, stage, grade, and times of disease-free survival than discrete subtypes. Gene set enrichment analysis reveals that the subtype scores characterize T-cell function, inflammation response, and cyclin-dependent kinase regulation of DNA replication.

CONCLUSIONS

We find no evidence to support discrete subtypes of the CRC transcriptome and instead propose two validated scores to better characterize a continuity of CRC transcriptomes.

Fusobacterium nucleatum in Colorectal Cancer Relates to Immune Response Differentially by Tumor Microsatellite Instability Status

The presence of Fusobacterium nucleatum (F. nucleatum) in colorectal carcinoma tissue has been associated with microsatellite instability (MSI), lower-level T-cell infiltrates, and poor clinical outcomes. Considering differences in the tumor-immune microenvironment between MSI-high and non-MSI-high carcinomas, we hypothesized that the association of F. nucleatum with immune response might differ by tumor MSI status. Using samples from 1,041 rectal and colon cancer patients within the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we measured F. nucleatum DNA in tumor tissue by a quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine the association between F. nucleatum status and histopathologic lymphocytic reactions or density of CD3⁺ cells, CD8⁺ cells, CD45RO (PTPRC)⁺ cells, or FOXP3⁺ cells in strata of tumor MSI status. We adjusted for potential confounders, including CpG island methylator phenotype; LINE-1 methylation; and KRAS, BRAF, and PIK3CA mutations. The association of F. nucleatum with tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) and intratumoral periglandular reaction differed by tumor MSI status (P _interaction = 0.002). The presence of F. nucleatum was negatively associated with TIL in MSI-high tumors [multivariable odds ratio (OR), 0.45; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.22-0.92], but positively associated with TIL in non-MSI-high tumors (multivariable OR 1.91; 95% CI, 1.12-3.25). No significant differential association was observed for peritumoral lymphocytic reaction, Crohn-like lymphoid reaction, or T-cell densities. In conclusion, the association of F. nucleatum with immune response to colorectal carcinoma differs by tumor MSI status, suggesting that F. nucleatum and MSI status interact to affect antitumor immune reactions. Cancer Immunol Res; 6(11); 1327-36. ©2018 AACR See related Spotlight on p. 1290.

Abstract PR03: Genetic mechanisms of immune evasion in colorectal cancer

Background: Immune checkpoint blockade has shown activity in microsatellite-instability high (MSI-H) colorectal cancers (CRCs). However, despite a very high mutational and neoantigen load among virtually all MSI-H tumors, the response rate is around 40-50%. In addition, for the majority of CRCs, which are microsatellite stable (MSS), immune checkpoint inhibitors have so far proven ineffective. Thus, to better understand the genetic drivers of immune evasion in CRC, we integrated next generation sequencing data from over 1200 tumors with transcriptional and immunohistochemical measures of immune infiltration.

Methods: We molecularly characterized 1,211 colorectal cancers, including 592 tumors from The Cancer Genome Atlas with whole exome sequencing (WES) and whole transcriptome (RNAseq) data and 619 cancers from two prospective cohort studies with WES and immunohistochemical (IHC) annotations. To identify driver gene alterations and their selection pressures specific to MSI-high tumors, we developed a statistical method to identify significantly mutated microsatellite tracts and we further developed a method to identify copy neutral loss of heterozygosity (CN-LOH) events. We used an established immune-gene transcriptional signature as well as IHC stains against specific subsets of immune-infiltrating cells to identify genetic events associated with immune evasion.

Results: We demonstrated that WNT-signaling and immune-related genes are significantly mutated in colorectal cancer. In MSI-H CRCs, we found biallelic antigen-presentation machinery (APM) mutations in the HLA Class I genes, B2M and TAP2, in addition to recurrent mutations in NLRC5 and RFX5, which downregulated HLA Class I expression. In all CRCs, we showed that WNT-signaling activity and APC-biallelic mutations are inversely associated with both transcriptional and IHC measures of T-cell infiltration. Specifically, nuclear CTNNB1 expression was inversely correlated with overall tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (p = 0.027), CD8+ subset of T-cells (p = 0.0019) and CD45RO+ subset of T-cells (0.0080). Meanwhile, colorectal tumors with biallelic disruptive mutations in APC had a significantly decreased activated T-cell transcriptional signature (p = 4e-12) relative to samples with no disruptive mutations in APC. We further showed that in MSS tumors, AXIN2 (a key WNT-signaling effector) super-enhancer hypomethylation, independent of the APC mutation status, was further associated with decreased T-cell activity.

Conclusions: In this largest CRC genomic analysis to date, we identify genetic events that are associated with immune evasion in this disease. Specifically, we find evidence of immuno-editing in MSI-H tumors through disruptive mutations in APM. In the MSS and MSI-H subtype of CRCs, we use transcriptional and immunohistochemical orthogonal analyses to demonstrate exclusion of an effective immune infiltrate in CRC through an active WNT-signaling pathway. Our results shed light on the underlying molecular mechanisms of immune exclusion in CRC and have direct implications for novel combination immunotherapy trials for patients with this disease.

This abstract is also being presented as Poster B23.

Citation Format: Marios Giannakis, Catherine Grasso, Daniel Wells, Tsuyoshi Hamada, Xinmeng Jasmine Mu, Michael Quist, Jonathan Nowak, Reiko Nishihara, Charles M. Connolly, Sachet Shukla, William M. Grady, David Wheeler, Catherine J. Wu, Jesse Zaretsky, Levi Garraway, Thomas Hudson, Charles Fuchs, Antoni Ribas, Riki Peters, Shuji Ogino. Genetic mechanisms of immune evasion in colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Special Conference on Tumor Immunology and Immunotherapy; 2017 Oct 1-4; Boston, MA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Immunol Res 2018;6(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PR03.

Calcium intake and risk of colorectal cancer according to expression status of calcium-sensing receptor (CASR)

OBJECTIVE

Although evidence suggests an inverse association between calcium intake and the risk of colorectal cancer, the mechanisms remain unclear. The calcium-sensing receptor (CASR) is expressed abundantly in normal colonic epithelium and may influence carcinogenesis. We hypothesized that calcium intake might be associated with lower risk of CASR-positive, but not CASR-negative, colorectal cancer.

DESIGN

We assessed tumour CASR protein expression using immunohistochemistry in 779 incident colon and rectal cancer cases that developed among 136 249 individuals in the Nurses' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. Duplication method Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to assess associations of calcium intake with incidence of colorectal adenocarcinoma subtypes by CASR status.

RESULTS

Total calcium intake was inversely associated with the risk of developing colorectal cancer (p_trend=0.01, comparing ≥1200 vs <600 mg/day: multivariable HR=0.75, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.95). For the same comparison, higher total calcium intake was associated with a lower risk of CASR-positive tumours (p_trend=0.003, multivariable HR=0.67, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.86) but not with CASR-negative tumours (p_trend=0.67, multivariable HR=1.15, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.78; p_{heterogeneity}=0.06 between the CASR subtypes). The stronger inverse associations of calcium intake with CASR-positive but not CASR-negative tumours generally appeared consistent regardless of sex, tumour location and source of calcium.

CONCLUSIONS

Our molecular pathological epidemiology data suggest a causal relationship between higher calcium intake and lower colorectal cancer risk, and a potential role of CASR in mediating antineoplastic effect of calcium.

Abstract 1228: Comparative genomic analysis of young-onset and late-onset colorectal cancer

Background: Young-onset colorectal cancer, the majority of which are sporadic, may have distinct molecular characteristics and etiologies. However, thus far, the genomic landscape of young-onset CRCs has remained largely uncharacterized. This study aimed to compare somatic mutation differences between young-onset and late-onset CRCs using the AACR GENIE data, a consortium of patients treated at 8 global cancer centers. Methods: Clinical and DNA mutation data on 2,081 CRC samples were downloaded from Sage Bionetworks (Synapse ID: syn7222066). A total of 162 samples from CRC patients who had more than one samples or were likely to have Lynch syndrome were excluded. Young-onset CRCs were defined as cancers arising at age &lt;50 years old while late-onset CRCs were defined as cancers arising at age ≥50 years old. Mutation rate per megabase (Mb) was calculated for each CRC and compared between groups by Wilcoxon rank sum test. The mutation frequency of each gene in young-onset and late-onset CRC was calculated separately for primary CRCs and metastatic CRCs. Mutation frequency differences between young- vs late-onset CRCs were tested by the Fisher's exact test with significance defined at the 5% alpha level. Results: Mutation data on 613 genes were analyzed on 955 primary and 676 metastatic CRCs. Overall, the most frequently mutated genes with a &gt;10% mutation frequency include: TP53 (66.86%), APC (59.46%), KRAS (47.42%), PIK3CA (18.40%), SMAD4 (12.71%) and BRAF (10.06%). The metastatic CRCs were on average slightly older than primary CRCs (mean age=56.96 vs. 55.90, two sample t test P=0.09). Comparing gene mutation between 300 young-onset versus 655 late-onset primary CRCs, mutation rate per Mb was slightly but not significantly higher in the latter (median=3.74 vs. 4.14, P=0.2199). DOT1L (9.82% vs. 1.95%, P=0.0014), IGF1R (6.12% vs. 1.72%, P=0.0057), BRCA1 (5.61% vs. 1.47%, P=0.0069), JUN (6.25% vs. 1.17%, P=0.0104), PTCH1 (7.14% vs. 2.7%, P=0.0151), TSHR (5.36% vs. 1.17%, P=0.0253), EIF1AX (3.06% vs. 0%, P=0.02811), JAK2 (2.0% vs. 0.46%, P=0.0311), EP300 (8.67% vs. 4.41%, P=0.0414), PHOX2B (2.20% vs. 0.27%, P=0.0419), SMC1A (3.57% vs. 0%, P=0.0446) and CSF1R (3.02% vs. 1.03%, P=0.0439) had a significantly higher mutation rate in the young-onset primary CRCs. Meanwhile, KRAS was mutated more frequently in late-onset primary CRCs (44.0% vs. 51.3%, P=0.03679). For metastatic CRCs, NTRK1 was found mutated in 12 (3.80%) out of 316 later-onset metastatic CRCs but none out of 129 young-onset metastatic CRCs (P=0.0223). Meanwhile, CIC was mutated in only 1 out of 103 young-onset metastatic CRCs but 17 (6.44%) out of 264 late-onset metastatic CRCs (P=0.0302) and TP53 had a nearly 8% higher mutation rate in young-onset metastatic CRCs (79.01% vs. 71.19%, P=0.0488). Conclusions: Mutation rates were found significantly higher in many genes among young-onset primary CRCs compared to late-onset primary CRCs.

Citation Format: Jingqin Luo, Marios Giannakis, Graham Colditz, Jean Wang, William Chapman, Adetunji T. Toriola, Yoshiko Mito, Reiko Nishihara, Jonathan Nowak, Charles Fuchs, Edward Giovannucci, Andrew T. Chan, Adam Bass, Shuji Ogino, Ryan Fields, Yin Cao. Comparative genomic analysis of young-onset and late-onset colorectal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 1228.

Abstract 229: Genome-wide association study by colorectal carcinoma subtype

Over 50 genetic variants have been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk through genome-wide association studies (GWAS), yet these variants represent only a fraction of the total estimated heritability. CRC is a heterogenous disease with diverse tumor etiology. Assessing genetic risk in molecular subtypes may help to identify novel loci and characterize genetic risk among tumor subtypes. We used microsatellite instability (MSI), an established CRC classifier with etiological and therapeutic relevance, to define CRC subtypes for GWAS analyses. We conducted a case-case analysis to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for association of genome-wide variants with microsatellite stable (MSS) versus unstable (MSI) carcinomas. We ran an inverse-variance weighted fixed-effects meta-analysis across GWAS in a discovery set of 4,163 population-based CRC cases with harmonized microsatellite instability (MSI) marker and imputed genotype data. For each analysis, we used log-additive logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and principal components to account for population substructure. We then followed up with replication of 102 SNPs that reached p-values less than 5x10-6 in 1,698 cases. A total of 845 (20.3%) cancer cases were microsatellite unstable in the discovery population and 174 (10.2%) were unstable in the replication population. No variants reached the genome-wide significance level of 5x10-8 in the discovery set. However, we identified two variants that reached a Bonferroni corrected p-value of 4.0x10-4 in the replication set. This included one variant in MLH1 (Replication: OR=1.74, 95% CI=1.53-1.98, p=1.63x10-5; Discovery+Replication: OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.37-1.54, p=9.76x10-11) and one variant in LOC105377645 (Replication: OR=1.70, 95% CI=1.49-1.94, p=5.13x10-5; Discovery+Replication: OR=1.45, 95% CI=1.37-1.54, p=9.76 x 10-11). The MLH1 gene is a DNA mismatch repair gene implicated in Lynch Syndrome, the hallmark of which is microsatellite instability. This is the first genome-wide scan to identify a common variant in MLH1 that is associated with CRC. This variant (minor allele frequency, MAF = 23% in this all European ancestry population) is located in the 5'-untranslated region of MLH1 and is thought to act as a long-range regulator of DCLK3, a potential tumor driver gene. The second variant, located in LOC105377645 with an MAF of 22%, is in an uncharacterized region of the genome and has not previously been implicated in cancer development. These findings suggest that accounting for molecular heterogeneity is important for discovery and characterization of genetic variants associated with CRC risk. We plan to run polytomous regression analyses, increase our sample size, and further investigate CRC subtypes by CIMP, BRAF mutation, KRAS mutation status.

Citation Format: Tabitha A. Harrison, Yiwen Lu, Chenjie Zeng, Flora Qu, Kristin Anderson, Hermann Brenner, Daniel D. Buchanan, Peter T. Campbell, Andrew T. Chan, Jenny Chang-Claude, Graham G. Giles, Bethany Van Guelpen, Michael Hoffmeister, Mark A. Jenkins, Noralane M. Lindor, Roger L. Milne, Polly A. Newcomb, Reiko Nishihara, Michael O. Woods, Shuji Ogino, John D. Potter, Martha L. Slattery, Wei Sun, Stephen N. Thibodeau, Li Hsu, Ulrike Peters. Genome-wide association study by colorectal carcinoma subtype [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2018; 2018 Apr 14-18; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(13 Suppl):Abstract nr 229.

The competing risks Cox model with auxiliary case covariates under weaker missing-at-random cause of failure

In the analysis of time-to-event data with multiple causes using a competing risks Cox model, often the cause of failure is unknown for some of the cases. The probability of a missing cause is typically assumed to be independent of the cause given the time of the event and covariates measured before the event occurred. In practice, however, the underlying missing-at-random assumption does not necessarily hold. Motivated by colorectal cancer molecular pathological epidemiology analysis, we develop a method to conduct valid analysis when additional auxiliary variables are available for cases only. We consider a weaker missing-at-random assumption, with missing pattern depending on the observed quantities, which include the auxiliary covariates. We use an informative likelihood approach that will yield consistent estimates even when the underlying model for missing cause of failure is misspecified. The superiority of our method over naive methods in finite samples is demonstrated by simulation study results. We illustrate the use of our method in an analysis of colorectal cancer data from the Nurses' Health Study cohort, where, apparently, the traditional missing-at-random assumption fails to hold.

Determining Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Starting Age of Screening Based on Lifestyle, Environmental, and Genetic Factors

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Guidelines for initiating colorectal cancer (CRC) screening are based on family history but do not consider lifestyle, environmental, or genetic risk factors. We developed models to determine risk of CRC, based on lifestyle and environmental factors and genetic variants, and to identify an optimal age to begin screening.

METHODS

We collected data from 9748 CRC cases and 10,590 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium and the Colorectal Transdisciplinary study, from 1992 through 2005. Half of the participants were used to develop the risk determination model and the other half were used to evaluate the discriminatory accuracy (validation set). Models of CRC risk were created based on family history, 19 lifestyle and environmental factors (E-score), and 63 CRC-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms identified in genome-wide association studies (G-score). We evaluated the discriminatory accuracy of the models by calculating area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values, adjusting for study, age, and endoscopy history for the validation set. We used the models to project the 10-year absolute risk of CRC for a given risk profile and recommend ages to begin screening in comparison to CRC risk for an average individual at 50 years of age, using external population incidence rates for non-Hispanic whites from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program registry.

RESULTS

In our models, E-score and G-score each determined risk of CRC with greater accuracy than family history. A model that combined both scores and family history estimated CRC risk with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.63 (95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.64) for men and 0.62 (95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.63) for women; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values based on only family history ranged from 0.53 to 0.54 and those based only E-score or G-score ranged from 0.59 to 0.60. Although screening is recommended to begin at age 50 years for individuals with no family history of CRC, starting ages calculated based on combined E-score and G-score differed by 12 years for men and 14 for women, for individuals with the highest vs the lowest 10% of risk.

CONCLUSIONS

We used data from 2 large international consortia to develop CRC risk calculation models that included genetic and environmental factors along with family history. These determine risk of CRC and starting ages for screening with greater accuracy than the family history only model, which is based on the current screening guideline. These scoring systems might serve as a first step toward developing individualized CRC prevention strategies.

Integrative analysis of exogenous, endogenous, tumour and immune factors for precision medicine

Immunotherapy strategies targeting immune checkpoints such as the CTLA4 and CD274 (programmed cell death 1 ligand 1, PD-L1)/PDCD1 (programmed cell death 1, PD-1) T-cell coreceptor pathways are revolutionising oncology. The approval of pembrolizumab use for solid tumours with high-level microsatellite instability or mismatch repair deficiency by the US Food and Drug Administration highlights promise of precision immuno-oncology. However, despite evidence indicating influences of exogenous and endogenous factors such as diet, nutrients, alcohol, smoking, obesity, lifestyle, environmental exposures and microbiome on tumour-immune interactions, integrative analyses of those factors and immunity lag behind. Immune cell analyses in the tumour microenvironment have not adequately been integrated into large-scale studies. Addressing this gap, the transdisciplinary field of molecular pathological epidemiology (MPE) offers research frameworks to integrate tumour immunology into population health sciences, and link the exposures and germline genetics (eg, HLA genotypes) to tumour and immune characteristics. Multilevel research using bioinformatics, in vivo pathology and omics (genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics) technologies is possible with use of tissue, peripheral blood circulating cells, cell-free plasma, stool, sputum, urine and other body fluids. This immunology-MPE model can synergise with experimental immunology, microbiology and systems biology. GI neoplasms represent exemplary diseases for the immunology-MPE model, given rich microbiota and immune tissues of intestines, and the well-established carcinogenic role of intestinal inflammation. Proof-of-principle studies on colorectal cancer provided insights into immunomodulating effects of aspirin, vitamin D, inflammatory diets and omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids. The integrated immunology-MPE model can contribute to better understanding of environment-tumour-immune interactions, and effective immunoprevention and immunotherapy strategies for precision medicine.