Child survivorship estimation: methods and data analysis

"The past 20 years have seen extensive elaboration, refinement, and application of the original Brass method for estimating infant and child mortality from child survivorship data. This experience has confirmed the overall usefulness of the methods beyond question, but it has also shown that...estimates must be analyzed in relation to other relevant information before useful conclusions about the level and trend of mortality can be drawn.... This article aims to illustrate the importance of data analysis through a series of examples, including data for the Eastern Malaysian state of Sarawak, Mexico, Thailand, and Indonesia. Specific maneuvers include plotting completed parity distributions and 'time-plotting' mean numbers of children ever born from successive censuses. A substantive conclusion of general interest is that data for older women are not so widely defective as generally supposed."

Analyses of public use decennial census data with multiply imputed industry and occupation codes

"This paper gives a brief introduction to multiple imputation for handling non-response in surveys. We then describe a recently completed project in which multiple imputation was used to recalibrate industry and occupation codes in 1970 U.S. census public use samples to the 1980 standard. Using analyses of data from the project, we examine the utility of analysing a large data set having imputed values compared with analysing a small data set having true values, and we provide examples of the amount by which variability is underestimated by using just one imputation rather than multiple imputations."

[Confronting the statistics on intra-European migration: toward greater harmonization?]

"Each international migration stream can be enumerated twice: at the time of departure from the country of emigration and at the time of arrival in the country of immigration. In practice, errors in international migration statistics are a major obstacle to the accurate analysis of migration flows. In connection with the process of harmonization set in train by Eurostat several years ago, a method of correcting defective migration data is proposed here, which makes use of this double enumeration. The method is applied to available data in a preliminary analysis. The correction factors presented here through this mathematical approach should turn out to be useful in more than one respect: to illuminate substantial problems of incompatibility of migration data and to follow the progress of the harmonization of those data." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

A study of mortality in China in the 1980s

"This article offers a detailed discussion of Chinese mortality as confirmed by data from the 1982 and 1990 censuses. It points out that, in measuring the actual mortality in China in the 1980s, attention should be paid not only to infant mortality but also to failures in reporting deaths of old people. Based on age-differentiated population as reported by the two censuses, the author computes the population's average life span and re-evaluates the error in age-differentiated mortality as calculated by using mortality data from the censuses."

Demographic event history analysis: a selective review

This is a selective review of the literature concerning demographic event history analysis. "We have attempted to emphasize work that we consider to be particularly important or innovative, to note some of the difficulties that may arise with the use of event history analysis, and to point to several substantive areas where research is still poorly developed."

[New perspectives in life-event history analysis]

"In the last decade, life-event history analysis, also called failure time data analysis or survival analysis, has been widely adopted by demographers. This methodology in demography allows [us] to overcome major hurdles especially when analyzing longitudinal survey data. This paper describes the new perspectives opened to research in that field, and is illustrated by new results and examples of research projects. The authors concentrate on four issues: the analysis of incorrect and imperfect data, the analysis based on more complex data and lastly the study of interaction between phenomena." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA)

Alternative dual system network estimators

"When there are two or more data systems and none of them enumerates the population at an acceptable completeness level, concern about the bias due to underenumeration suggests an estimator which makes joint use of data compiled by the combined imperfect data systems. Conventional dual system estimators are based on the existence of two separate data collection systems. Dual system network estimators assume a main survey and a follow-up quality check survey. The main survey adopts a multiplicity counting rule that combines two mutually exclusive partial counting rules." Three dual system network estimators are presented. "One was previously proposed by Sirken (1979) and is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The two other estimators are proposed as potential improvements, although neither of them is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The design effects of the three estimators are compared analytically and empirically with one another, and with those of the single system conventional and network estimators." (summary in FRE)

The aging of the population and the financing of local governments

"This paper explores the residential property tax burdens faced by elderly homeowners in the United States. The results demonstrate that the use of annual data in income and property tax liabilities to calculate tax burdens overstates the regressivity of the property tax. The magnitude of the bias created by using annual income is determined by comparing tax burdens calculated from annual data with burdens calculated from tax liabilities and income data covering a 12-year period. The results indicate that while the residential property tax on the non-elderly is approximately proportional, the pattern of burdens on the elderly remains regressive."

How the 1990 Post Enumeration Survey transformed the census adjustment controversy

The author briefly examines the controversy surrounding the 1980 U.S. census undercount, including a lawsuit entered against the U.S. Bureau of the Census by the City of New York. He then describes the Post Enumeration Survey (PES), introduced after the 1990 census "to measure census coverage (i.e. undercounts) by place and by race and ethnicity, which had not previously been possible.... Results of the 1990 PES show that previous claims about the harmful effects of differential undercounts were exaggerated, but they also [show] that the undercounts and their effects are still there."

Miscounting the Spanish origin population in the United States: corrections to the 1970 census and their implications

"The purpose of this...paper is three-fold: (a) to identify the discrepancies in the 1970 census figures [for the Spanish-origin population in the United States], (b) to suggest alternative strategies for correcting the original figures and briefly report on an estimate of the possible 'correct' figures for 1970, and (c) to briefly summarize the implications of the corrected figures for past and present research." The revised figures lower the total Spanish-origin population by about one million and increase the relative importance of specific groups, such as Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans. The results also indicate that the rate of growth for the Spanish-origin population from 1970 to 1980 was higher than previously estimated. (summary in FRE, SPA)