Economic Valuation of Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever) Projections in the United States in Response to Climate Change

Coccidioidomycosis, or valley fever, is an infectious fungal disease currently endemic to the southwestern United States. Symptoms of valley fever range in severity from flu-like illness to severe morbidity and mortality. Warming temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns may cause the area of endemicity to expand northward throughout the western United States, putting more people at risk for contracting valley fever. This may increase the health and economic burdens from this disease. We developed an approach to describe the relationship between climate conditions and valley fever incidence using historical data and generated projections of future incidence in response to both climate change and population trends using the Climate Change Impacts and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. We also developed a method to estimate economic impacts of valley fever that is based on case counts. For our 2000-15 baseline time period, we estimated annual medical costs, lost income, and economic welfare losses for valley fever in the United States were $400,000 per case, and the annual average total cost was $3.9 billion per year. For a high greenhouse gas emission scenario and accounting for population growth, we found that total annual costs for valley fever may increase up to 164% by year 2050 and up to 380% by 2090. By the end of the twenty-first century, valley fever may cost $620,000 per case and the annual average total cost may reach $18.5 billion per year. This work contributes to the broader effort to monetize climate change-attributable damages in the United States.

Synergistic health effects of air pollution, temperature, and pollen exposure: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

BACKGROUND

Exposure to heat, air pollution, and pollen are associated with health outcomes, including cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Studies assessing the health impacts of climate change have considered increased exposure to these risk factors separately, though they may be increasing simultaneously for some populations and may act synergistically on health. Our objective is to systematically review epidemiological evidence for interactive effects of multiple exposures to heat, air pollution, and pollen on human health.

METHODS

We systematically searched electronic literature databases (last search, April 29, 2019) for studies reporting quantitative measurements of associations between at least two of the exposures and mortality from any cause and cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality specifically. Following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology, we evaluated the risk of bias of individual studies and the overall quality and strength of evidence.

RESULTS

We found 56 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six measured air pollution, heat, and pollen; 39 measured air pollution and heat; 10 measured air pollution and pollen; and one measured heat and pollen. Nearly all studies were at risk of bias from exposure assessment error. However, consistent exposure-response across studies led us to conclude that there is overall moderate quality and sufficient evidence for synergistic effects of heat and air pollution. We concluded that there is overall low quality and limited evidence for synergistic effects from simultaneous exposure to (1) air pollution, pollen, and heat; and (2) air pollution and pollen. With only one study, we were unable to assess the evidence for synergistic effects of heat and pollen.

CONCLUSIONS

If synergistic effects between heat and air pollution are confirmed with additional research, the health impacts from climate change-driven increases in air pollution and heat exposure may be larger than previously estimated in studies that consider these risk factors individually.

Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions

BACKGROUND

Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.

METHODS

An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.

RESULTS

The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.

DISCUSSION

This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.

Cool Roof and Green Roof Adoption in a Metropolitan Area: Climate Impacts during Summer and Winter

This study, for the first time, estimates the climate impacts of adopting green roofs and cool roofs on the seasonal urban climate of 16 cities that comprise the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan. We use a suite of regional climate simulation to compare the local climate impacts of the implementation of different roof strategies in summer and winter. The results indicate that in summer, the 2 m surface temperature reduced significantly when these two roof strategies are adopted, with peak reductions of 0.74 and 1.19 K for green roofs and cool roofs, respectively. The cooling impact of cool roofs is more effective than that of green roofs under the scenarios assumed in this study. Besides, rooted in the different mechanisms influencing urban heat flux, significant indirect effects were also observed: adopting cool roofs leads to a decreased precipitation in summer and an apparent reduction in wintertime temperatures in the urban area. Although cool roofs can be an effective way to reduce high temperatures during the summer, green roofs have fewer adverse impacts on other climate conditions. These results underline the need for comprehensive climate change policies that incorporate place-based solutions and extend beyond the nearly exclusive focus on summertime cooling.

Using Satellites to Track Indicators of Global Air Pollution and Climate Change Impacts: Lessons Learned From a NASA-Supported Science-Stakeholder Collaborative

The 2018 NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST) "Indicators" Tiger Team collaboration between NASA-supported scientists and civil society stakeholders aimed to develop satellite-derived global air pollution and climate indicators. This Commentary shares our experience and lessons learned. Together, the team developed methods to track wildfires, dust storms, pollen counts, urban green space, nitrogen dioxide concentrations and asthma burdens, tropospheric ozone concentrations, and urban particulate matter mortality. Participatory knowledge production can lead to more actionable information but requires time, flexibility, and continuous engagement. Ground measurements are still needed for ground truthing, and sustained collaboration over time remains a challenge.

Air pollution reduction and mortality benefit during the COVID-19 outbreak in China

To control the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, China undertook stringent traffic restrictions and self-quarantine measures. We herein examine the change in air pollution levels and the potentially avoided cause-specific mortality during this massive population quarantine episode. We found that, due to the quarantine, NO2 dropped by 22.8 µg/m3 and 12.9 µg/m3 in Wuhan and China, respectively. PM2.5 dropped by 1.4 µg/m3 in Wuhan but decreased by 18.9 µg/m3 across 367 cities. Our findings show that interventions to contain the COVID-19 outbreak led to air quality improvements that brought health benefits which outnumbered the confirmed deaths due to COVID-19 in China

Short- and intermediate-term exposure to NO2 and mortality: A multi-county analysis in China

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is a well-established traffic emissions tracer and has been associated with multiple adverse health outcomes. Short- and long-term exposure to NO2 has been studied and is well-documented in existing literature, but information on intermediate-term NO2 effects and mortality is lacking, despite biological plausibility. We obtained daily NO2 and mortality data from 42 counties in China from 2013 to 2015. Distributed-lag non-linear models were employed to investigate the relationship between non-accidental mortality and NO2 up to 30 days before the event, including PM2.5, temperature, relative humidity, and holidays as covariates in a random effects meta-analysis pooling county-specific estimates. We repeated the analysis for cardiovascular- and respiratory-related mortality, and explored sex-stratified associations. Per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2, we estimated a 0.13% (95%CI: 0.03, 0.23%), 0.57% (95%CI: -0.04, 1.18%), and -0.14% (95%CI: -1.63, 1.37%) change in non-accidental mortality for same-day and previous-day NO2 (lag0-1 cumulated), in the preceding 7 days (lag0-7 cumulated), and in the preceding 30 days (lag0-30 cumulated), respectively. The strongest estimate was observed for respiratory-related mortality in the lag0-30 cumulated effect for women (3.12%; 95%CI: -1.66, 8.13%). We observed a trend of higher effect estimates of intermediate-term NO2 exposure on respiratory mortality compared to that of the short-term, although the differences were not statistically significant. Our results at longer lags for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were sensitive to modeling choices. Future work should further investigate intermediate-term air pollution exposure given their potential biological relevance, but in larger scale settings.

Fine Particulate Matter and Poor Cognitive Function among Chinese Older Adults: Evidence from a Community-Based, 12-Year Prospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Research on the relationship between long-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 μ m (PM 2.5 ) and poor cognitive function is lacking in developing countries, especially in highly polluted areas.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated associations of long-term exposure to PM 2.5 with poor cognitive function in a diverse, national sample of older adults in China.

METHODS

This analysis included data on 13,324 older adults (5,879 who were 65-79 years of age, 3,052 who were 80-89 years of age, 2,634 who were 90-99 years of age, and 1,759 who were ≥ 100  years of age) with normal cognitive function at baseline from March 2002 to September 2014, with 64,648 person-years of follow-up. We used a geographic information system analysis to estimate the annual average satellite-derived PM 2.5 concentration for the geocoded location of the participants' baseline residences. Poor cognitive function was defined as a score of less than 18 on the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). Competing risk models were performed to explore the association of PM 2.5 with poor cognitive function.

RESULTS

Each 10 - μ g / m 3 increase in PM 2.5 was associated with a 5.1% increased risk of poor cognitive function [adjusted hazard ratio (HR): 1.051; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.023, 1.079]. Compared to the lowest quartile of PM 2.5 (< 41.4   μ g / m 3 ), adjusted HR values were 1.20 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.33), 1.27 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.41), and 1.21 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.34) for the second (≥ 41.4 - 50.3  ug / m 3 ), third (≥ 50.3 - 60.7 μ g / m 3 ), and fourth (≥ 60.7   μ g / m 3 ) quartiles of PM 2.5 , respectively (p for trend < 0.001 ). Subgroup analyses suggested stronger associations between PM 2.5 and poor cognitive impairment in men than women. The association was positive in the 65- to 79- and ≥ 100 - y age group but not significant and positive in the other two age groups with similar results.

CONCLUSION

PM 2.5 was identified as a risk factor for poor cognitive function in Chinese older adults. Improving air quality may reduce the future population burden of poor cognitive function, especially in areas with high air pollution. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5304.

Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter and fasting blood glucose level in a Chinese elderly cohort

Fasting blood glucose level is the primary indicator for the diagnosis of diabetes. We aim to conduct a longitudinal study on the association between long-term fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure and fasting blood glucose concentrations. We recruited and followed up 1449 participants older than 65 years of age in 2009, 2012, 2014, and 2017 in eight counties in China. Fasting blood glucose was repeatedly measured 3697 times in total among these participants. Data on annual ground-level PM_2.5 concentrations with a 0.01° spatial resolution from 2005 to 2016 were used to assess exposures. An increase of 10 μg/m³ in 3-year average exposure to PM_2.5 was associated with an increase of 0.146 mmol/L (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.045, 0.248) in fasting blood glucose in all participants. The association was more pronounced among the subgroup with diabetes compared to the subgroup without diabetes (P < .05). In conclusion, Long-term PM_2.5 exposure was associated with an increase in fasting blood glucose levels among elderly people. Elderly individuals with diabetes are particularly vulnerable to high level exposures of PM_2.5. SUMMARY: Long-term PM_2.5 exposure was associated with an increase in fasting blood glucose levels among elderly people. Elderly individuals with diabetes are particularly vulnerable to high level exposures of PM_2.5.

Prenatal Household Air Pollution Is Associated with Impaired Infant Lung Function with Sex-Specific Effects. Evidence from GRAPHS, a Cluster Randomized Cookstove Intervention Trial

RATIONALE

Approximately 2.8 billion people are exposed daily to household air pollution from polluting cookstoves. The effects of prenatal household air pollution on lung development are unknown.

OBJECTIVES

To prospectively examine associations between prenatal household air pollution and infant lung function and pneumonia in rural Ghana.

METHODS

Prenatal household air pollution exposure was indexed by serial maternal carbon monoxide personal exposure measurements. Using linear regression, we examined associations between average prenatal carbon monoxide and infant lung function at age 30 days, first in the entire cohort (n = 384) and then stratified by sex. Quasi-Poisson generalized additive models explored associations between infant lung function and pneumonia.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

Multivariable linear regression models showed that average prenatal carbon monoxide exposure was associated with reduced time to peak tidal expiratory flow to expiratory time (β = -0.004; P = 0.01), increased respiratory rate (β = 0.28; P = 0.01), and increased minute ventilation (β = 7.21; P = 0.05), considered separately, per 1 ppm increase in average prenatal carbon monoxide. Sex-stratified analyses suggested that girls were particularly vulnerable (time to peak tidal expiratory flow to expiratory time: β = -0.003, P = 0.05; respiratory rate: β = 0.36, P = 0.01; minute ventilation: β = 11.25, P = 0.01; passive respiratory compliance normalized for body weight: β = 0.005, P = 0.01). Increased respiratory rate at age 30 days was associated with increased risk for physician-assessed pneumonia (relative risk, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.04) and severe pneumonia (relative risk, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.08) in the first year of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased prenatal household air pollution exposure is associated with impaired infant lung function. Altered infant lung function may increase risk for pneumonia in the first year of life. These findings have implications for future respiratory health. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01335490).

Contribution of low-cost sensor measurements to the prediction of PM2.5 levels: A case study in Imperial County, California, USA

Regulatory monitoring networks are often too sparse to support community-scale PM2.5 exposure assessment while emerging low-cost sensors have the potential to fill in the gaps. To date, limited studies, if any, have been conducted to utilize low-cost sensor measurements to improve PM2.5 prediction with high spatiotemporal resolutions based on statistical models. Imperial County in California is an exemplary region with sparse Air Quality System (AQS) monitors and a community-operated low-cost network entitled Identifying Violations Affecting Neighborhoods (IVAN). This study aims to evaluate the contribution of IVAN measurements to the quality of PM2.5 prediction. We adopted the Random Forest algorithm to estimate daily PM2.5 concentrations at a 1-km spatial resolution using three different PM2.5 datasets (AQS-only, IVAN-only, and AQS/IVAN combined). The results show that the integration of low-cost sensor measurements is an effective way to significantly improve the quality of PM2.5 prediction with an increase of cross-validation (CV) R2 by ~0.2. The IVAN measurements also contributed to the increased importance of emission source-related covariates and more reasonable spatial patterns of PM2.5. The remaining uncertainty in the calibrated IVAN measurements could still cause apparent outliers in the prediction model, highlighting the need for more effective calibration or integration methods to relieve its negative impact.

How community vulnerability factors jointly affect multiple health outcomes after catastrophic storms

BACKGROUND

While previous studies uncovered individual vulnerabilities to health risks during catastrophic storms, few evaluated the population vulnerability which is more important for identifying areas in greatest need of intervention.

OBJECTIVES

We assessed the association between community factors and multiple health outcomes, and developed a community vulnerability index.

METHODS

We retained emergency department visits for several health conditions from the 2005-2014 New York Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System. We developed distributed lag nonlinear models at each spatial cluster across eight counties in downstate New York to evaluate the health risk associated with Superstorm Sandy (10/28/2012-11/9/2012) compared to the same period in other years, then defined census tracts in clusters with an elevated risk as "risk-elevated communities", and all others as "unelevated". We used machine-learning techniques to regress the risk elevation status against community factors to determine the contribution of each factor on population vulnerability, and developed a community vulnerability index (CVI).

RESULTS

Overall, community factors had positive contributions to increased community vulnerabilities to Sandy-related substance abuse (91.35%), injuries (70.51%), cardiovascular diseases (8.01%), and mental disorders (2.71%) but reversely contributed to respiratory diseases (-34.73%). The contribution of low per capita income (max: 22.08%), the percentage of residents living in group quarters (max: 31.39%), the percentage of areas prone to flooding (max: 38.45%), and the percentage of green coverage (max: 29.73%) tended to be larger than other factors. The CVI based on these factors achieved an accuracy of 0.73-0.90 across outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggested that substance abuse was the most sensitive disease susceptible to less optimal community indicators, whereas respiratory diseases were higher in communities with better social environment. The percentage of residents in group quarters and areas prone to flooding were among dominant predictors for community vulnerabilities. The CVI based on these factors has an appropriate predictive performance.

Estimating daily PM2.5 concentrations in New York City at the neighborhood-scale: Implications for integrating non-regulatory measurements

Previous PM_2.5 related epidemiological studies mainly relied on data from sparse regulatory monitors to assess exposure. The introduction of non-regulatory PM_2.5 monitors presents both opportunities and challenges to researchers and air quality managers. In this study, we evaluated the advantages and limitations of integrating non-regulatory PM_2.5 measurements into a satellite-based daily PM_2.5 model at 100 m resolution in New York City in 2015. Two separate machine learning models were developed, one using only PM_2.5 data from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the other with measurements from both EPA and the New York City Community Air Survey (NYCCAS). The EPA-only model obtained a cross-validation (CV) R² of 0.85 while the EPA + NYCCAS model obtained a CV R² of 0.73. With the help of the NYCCAS measurements, the EPA + NYCCAS model predicted distinctly different PM_2.5 spatial patterns and more pollution hotspots compared with the EPA model, and its predictions were >15% higher than the EPA model along major roads and in densely populated areas. Our results indicated that satellite AOD and non-regulatory PM_2.5 measurements can be fused together to capture neighborhood-scale PM_2.5 levels and previous studies may have underestimated the disease burden due to PM_2.5 in densely populated areas.

Methods, availability, and applications of PM2.5 exposure estimates derived from ground measurements, satellite, and atmospheric models

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is a well-established risk factor for public health. To support both health risk assessment and epidemiological studies, data are needed on spatial and temporal patterns of PM2.5 exposures. This review article surveys publicly available exposure datasets for surface PM2.5 mass concentrations over the contiguous U.S., summarizes their applications and limitations, and provides suggestions on future research needs. The complex landscape of satellite instruments, model capabilities, monitor networks, and data synthesis methods offers opportunities for research development, but would benefit from guidance for new users. Guidance is provided to access publicly available PM2.5 datasets, to explain and compare different approaches for dataset generation, and to identify sources of uncertainties associated with various types of datasets. Three main sources used to create PM2.5 exposure data are ground-based measurements (especially regulatory monitoring), satellite retrievals (especially aerosol optical depth, AOD), and atmospheric chemistry models. We find inconsistencies among several publicly available PM2.5 estimates, highlighting uncertainties in the exposure datasets that are often overlooked in health effects analyses. Major differences among PM2.5 estimates emerge from the choice of data (ground-based, satellite, and/or model), the spatiotemporal resolutions, and the algorithms used to fuse data sources.Implications: Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has large impacts on human morbidity and mortality. Even though the methods for generating the PM2.5 exposure estimates have been significantly improved in recent years, there is a lack of review articles that document PM2.5 exposure datasets that are publicly available and easily accessible by the health and air quality communities. In this article, we discuss the main methods that generate PM2.5 data, compare several publicly available datasets, and show the applications of various data fusion approaches. Guidance to access and critique these datasets are provided for stakeholders in public health sectors.

Examining the relationship between household air pollution and infant microbial nasal carriage in a Ghanaian cohort

BACKGROUND

Pneumonia, a leading cause of childhood mortality, is associated with household air pollution (HAP) exposure. Mechanisms between HAP and pneumonia are poorly understood, but studies suggest that HAP may increase the likelihood of bacterial, instead of viral, pneumonia. We assessed the relationship between HAP and infant microbial nasal carriage among 260 infants participating in the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS).

METHODS

Data are from GRAPHS, a cluster-randomized controlled trial of cookstove interventions (improved biomass or LPG) versus the 3-stone (baseline) cookstove. Infants were surveyed for pneumonia during the first year of life and had routine personal exposure assessments. Nasopharyngeal swabs collected from pneumonia cases (n = 130) and healthy controls (n = 130) were analyzed for presence of 22 common respiratory microbes by MassTag polymerase chain reaction. Data analyses included intention-to-treat (ITT) comparisons of microbial species presence by study arm, and exposure-response relationships.

RESULTS

In ITT analyses, 3-stone arm participants had a higher mean number of microbial species than the LPG (LPG: 2.71, 3-stone: 3.34, p < 0.0001, n = 260). This difference was driven by increased bacterial (p < 0.0001) rather than viral species presence (non-significant). Results were pronounced in pneumonia cases and attenuated in healthy controls. Higher prevalence bacterial species were Haemophilus influenzae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Moraxella catarrhalis. Exposure-response relationships did not yield significant associations between measured CO and nasal microbial carriage.

CONCLUSIONS

Our intention-to-treat findings are consistent with a link between HAP and bacterial nasal carriage. No relationships were found for viral carriage. Given the null results in exposure-response analysis, it is likely that a pollutant besides CO is driving these differences.

Prenatal maternal stress and birth outcomes in rural Ghana: sex-specific associations

Background

In developed countries, prenatal maternal stress has been associated with poor fetal growth, however this has not been evaluated in rural sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated the effect of prenatal maternal stress on fetal growth and birth outcomes in rural Ghana.

Methods

Leveraging a prospective, rural Ghanaian birth cohort, we ascertained prenatal maternal negative life events, categorized scores as 0-2 (low stress; referent), 3-5 (moderate), and > 5 (high) among 353 pregnant women in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South District located within the middle belt of Ghana. We employed linear regression to determine associations between prenatal maternal stress and infant birth weight, head circumference, and length. We additionally examined associations between prenatal maternal stress and adverse birth outcome, including low birth weight, small for gestational age, or stillbirth. Effect modification by infant sex was examined.

Results

In all children, high prenatal maternal stress was associated with reduced birth length (β = − 0.91, p = 0.04; p-value for trend = 0.04). Among girls, moderate and high prenatal maternal stress was associated with reduced birth weight (β = − 0.16, p = 0.02; β = − 0.18, p = 0.04 respectively; p-value for trend = 0.04) and head circumference (β = − 0.66, p = 0.05; β = − 1.02, p = 0.01 respectively; p-value for trend = 0.01). In girls, high prenatal stress increased odds of any adverse birth outcome (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.01-5.75; p for interaction = 0.04). Sex-specific analyses did not demonstrate significant effects in boys.

Conclusions

All infants, but especially girls, were vulnerable to effects of prenatal maternal stress on birth outcomes. Understanding risk factors for impaired fetal growth may help develop preventative public health strategies.

Trial registration

NCT01335490 (prospective registration).

Date of Registration: April 14, 2011.

Status of Registration: Completed.

Association Between Long-term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Change in Quantitatively Assessed Emphysema and Lung Function

IMPORTANCE

While air pollutants at historical levels have been associated with cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, it is not known whether exposure to contemporary air pollutant concentrations is associated with progression of emphysema.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the longitudinal association of ambient ozone (O3), fine particulate matter (PM2.5), oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and black carbon exposure with change in percent emphysema assessed via computed tomographic (CT) imaging and lung function.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This cohort study included participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Air and Lung Studies conducted in 6 metropolitan regions of the United States, which included 6814 adults aged 45 to 84 years recruited between July 2000 and August 2002, and an additional 257 participants recruited from February 2005 to May 2007, with follow-up through November 2018.

EXPOSURES

Residence-specific air pollutant concentrations (O3, PM2.5, NOx, and black carbon) were estimated by validated spatiotemporal models incorporating cohort-specific monitoring, determined from 1999 through the end of follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Percent emphysema, defined as the percent of lung pixels less than -950 Hounsfield units, was assessed up to 5 times per participant via cardiac CT scan (2000-2007) and equivalent regions on lung CT scans (2010-2018). Spirometry was performed up to 3 times per participant (2004-2018).

RESULTS

Among 7071 study participants (mean [range] age at recruitment, 60 [45-84] years; 3330 [47.1%] were men), 5780 were assigned outdoor residential air pollution concentrations in the year of their baseline examination and during the follow-up period and had at least 1 follow-up CT scan, and 2772 had at least 1 follow-up spirometric assessment, over a median of 10 years. Median percent emphysema was 3% at baseline and increased a mean of 0.58 percentage points per 10 years. Mean ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and NOx, but not O3, decreased substantially during follow-up. Ambient concentrations of O3, PM2.5, NOx, and black carbon at study baseline were significantly associated with greater increases in percent emphysema per 10 years (O3: 0.13 per 3 parts per billion [95% CI, 0.03-0.24]; PM2.5: 0.11 per 2 μg/m3 [95% CI, 0.03-0.19]; NOx: 0.06 per 10 parts per billion [95% CI, 0.01-0.12]; black carbon: 0.10 per 0.2 μg/m3 [95% CI, 0.01-0.18]). Ambient O3 and NOx concentrations, but not PM2.5 concentrations, during follow-up were also significantly associated with greater increases in percent emphysema. Ambient O3 concentrations, but not other pollutants, at baseline and during follow-up were significantly associated with a greater decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second per 10 years (baseline: 13.41 mL per 3 parts per billion [95% CI, 0.7-26.1]; follow-up: 18.15 mL per 3 parts per billion [95% CI, 1.59-34.71]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this cohort study conducted between 2000 and 2018 in 6 US metropolitan regions, long-term exposure to ambient air pollutants was significantly associated with increasing emphysema assessed quantitatively using CT imaging and lung function.

Population health impacts of China's climate change policies

Rapid and wide-ranging reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are required to meet the climate targets agreed upon at the 2015 Paris climate conference. There will be significant transition risks for health, livelihoods, and ecosystems associated with large-scale mitigation, but also opportunities. The aim of this study was to investigate the impacts, positive and negative, of climate policies on population health in China. We review the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) that China took to the Paris meeting, link commitments in the INDC to national planning documents relevant to environment and health, and search the literature for Chinese publications on health trade-offs and synergies. Synergies are evident in the measures taken to reduce local air pollution in China: controls on coal burning have materially improved local air quality and benefited health. But there may be risks to health also, depending on how policies are implemented and what safeguards are provided. To date most assessments of the health impacts of climate policies in China have been modelling studies. We recommend work of this kind is complemented by observational research to identify unexpected impacts and vulnerabilities. It will become even more important to undertake this work as emission reductions accelerate to meet the Paris climate targets.

All-cause mortality risk associated with long-term exposure to ambient PM2·5 in China: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Evidence from cohort studies in North America and Europe indicates that long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (PM_2·5) is associated with an increased mortality risk. However, this association has rarely been quantified at higher ambient concentrations. We estimated the hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality from long-term exposure to PM_2·5 in a well established Chinese cohort of older adults.

METHODS

The Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) is a prospective cohort study of men and women aged 65 years and older enrolled in 2008 and followed up through 2014 for mortality events. We studied individuals for whom residential locations were available in 2008 for linkage to 1 km grids of PM_2·5 concentrations, derived from satellite remote sensing. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the effect of long-term exposure to PM_2·5 on all-cause mortality, controlling for age, sex, smoking status, drinking status, physical activity, body-mass index, household income, marital status, and education. We then used our results to estimate premature mortality related to PM_2·5 exposure in the population aged 65 years and older in China in 2010.

FINDINGS

13 344 individuals in the CLHLS cohort had data for all timepoints, yielding follow-up data for 49 440 person-years. In a 3-year window, these individuals were exposed to a median PM_2·5 concentration of 50·7 μg/m³ (range 6·7-113·3). The overall HR for a 10 μg/m³ increase in this value was 1·08 (95% CI 1·06-1·09). In stratified analyses, HRs were higher in rural than in urban locations, in southern versus northern regions, and with exposure to lower versus higher PM_2·5 concentrations. Based on the overall HR, we estimated that 1 765 820 people aged 65 years and older in China in 2010 had premature mortality related to PM_2·5 exposure.

INTERPRETATION

Long-term exposure to PM_2·5 is associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality among adults aged 65 years and older in China, but the magnitude of the risk declines as the concentration of PM_2·5 increases.

FUNDING

National Natural Science Foundation of China, National High-Level Talents Special Support Plan of China for Young Talents, US National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Columbia University Global Policy Initiative.

Current respiratory symptoms and risk factors in pregnant women cooking with biomass fuels in rural Ghana

BACKGROUND

More than 75% of the population in Ghana relies on biomass fuels for cooking and heating. Household air pollution (HAP) emitted from the incomplete combustion of these fuels has been associated with adverse health effects including respiratory effects in women that can lead to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), a major contributor to global HAP-related mortality. HAP is a modifiable risk factor in the global burden of disease, exposure to which can be reduced.

OBJECTIVE

This study assessed the prevalence of respiratory symptoms, as well as associations between respiratory symptoms and HAP exposure, as measured using continuous personal carbon monoxide (CO), in nonsmoking pregnant women in rural Ghana.

METHODS

We analyzed current respiratory health symptoms and CO exposures upon enrollment in a subset (n = 840) of the population of pregnant women cooking with biomass fuels and enrolled in the GRAPHS randomized clinical control trial. Personal CO was measured using Lascar continuous monitors. Associations between CO concentrations as well as other sources of pollution exposures and respiratory health symptoms were estimated using logistic regression models.

CONCLUSION

There was a positive association between CO exposure per 1 ppm increase and a composite respiratory symptom score of current cough (lasting >5 days), wheeze and/or dyspnea (OR: 1.2, p = 0.03). CO was also positively associated with wheeze (OR: 1.3, p = 0.05), phlegm (OR: 1.2, p = 0.08) and reported clinic visit for respiratory infection in past 4 weeks (OR: 1.2, p = 0.09). Multivariate models showed significant associations between second-hand tobacco smoke and a composite outcome (OR: 2.1, p < 0.01) as well as individual outcomes of cough >5 days (OR: 3.1, p = 0.01), wheeze (OR: 2.7, p < 0.01) and dyspnea (OR: 2.2, p = 0.01). Other covariates found to be significantly associated with respiratory outcomes include involvement in charcoal production business and dyspnea, and involvement in burning grass/field and wheeze. Results suggest that exposure to HAP increases the risk of adverse respiratory symptoms among pregnant women using biomass fuels for cooking in rural Ghana.

An interventional study of rice for reducing cadmium exposure in a Chinese industrial town

BACKGROUND

Reducing cadmium (Cd) exposure in Cd-polluted areas in Asia is urgently needed given the toxic effects of Cd. The short-term and long-term benefits of lowering Cd exposure are unknown because of its long half-life in the body.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to investigate whether an intervention with low-Cd rice in a contaminated area of China reduced urinary Cd (UCd) levels and improved blood pressure and kidney function outcomes compared to no-intervention in consumers of high-Cd rice in the same region.

METHODS

106 non-smoking subjects were divided into three treatment groups: the intervention group (replacing homegrown high-Cd rice with market low-Cd rice, n = 34), the non-intervention group (continue eating high-Cd rice, n = 36) and the control group (continued eating low-Cd rice they have been eating for years, n = 36). The intervention period lasted for almost 8 months, during which participants were visited on up to 4 occasions and UCd, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP, DBP), kidney function biomarkers (β₂-microglobulin and N-acetyl-β-D-glucosaminidase) were measured.

RESULTS

After 3 months, the geometric mean UCd in the intervention (Int) group decreased significantly by 0.32 μg/g (p = 0.007), while changes were not significant in the non-intervention (non-Int) group (0.13 μg/g, p = 0.95) or the control group (-0.01 μg/g, p = 0.52). UCd in the Int group remained lower than in the non-Int group but higher than in the Control group through the end of follow up. DBP in the Int group decreased significantly from 80 mm Hg at month three (p = 0.03) and stayed around 74 mm Hg for the remainder of the study. SBP also decreased in the Int group but with variations similar to those observed in the other two groups. The two kidney biomarkers showed variations without a clear pattern.

CONCLUSION

This study suggested that UCd reflected both short-term (<3 months) and long-term Cd exposure. In addition, the low-Cd rice intervention showed initial benefits in lowering blood pressure levels, especially DBP, but not kidney biomarkers.

Estimates of Present and Future Asthma Emergency Department Visits Associated With Exposure to Oak, Birch, and Grass Pollen in the United States

Pollen is an important environmental cause of allergic asthma episodes. Prior work has established a proof of concept for assessing projected climate change impacts on future oak pollen exposure and associated health impacts. This paper uses additional monitor data and epidemiologic functions to extend prior analyses, reporting new estimates of the current and projected future health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States. Our results suggest that tree pollen in the spring currently accounts for between 25,000 and 50,000 pollen-related asthma emergency department (ED) visits annually (95% confidence interval: 14,000 to 100,000), roughly two thirds of which occur among people under age 18. Grass pollen in the summer season currently accounts for less than 10,000 cases annually (95% confidence interval: 4,000 to 16,000). Compared to a baseline with 21st century population growth but constant pollen, future temperature and precipitation show an increase in ED visits of 14% in 2090 for a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario, but only 8% for a moderate emissions scenario, reflecting projected increases in pollen season length. Grass pollen, which is more sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, is a primary contributor to future ED visits, with the largest effects in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern Great Plains regions. More complete assessment of the current and future health burden of pollen is limited by the availability of data on pollen types (e.g., ragweed), other health effects (e.g., other respiratory disease), and economic consequences (e.g., medication costs).

Estimates of the Global Burden of Ambient [Formula: see text], Ozone, and [Formula: see text] on Asthma Incidence and Emergency Room Visits

BACKGROUND

Asthma is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease worldwide, affecting 358 million people in 2015. Ambient air pollution exacerbates asthma among populations around the world and may also contribute to new-onset asthma.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to estimate the number of asthma emergency room visits and new onset asthma cases globally attributable to fine particulate matter ([Formula: see text]), ozone, and nitrogen dioxide ([Formula: see text]) concentrations.

METHODS

We used epidemiological health impact functions combined with data describing population, baseline asthma incidence and prevalence, and pollutant concentrations. We constructed a new dataset of national and regional emergency room visit rates among people with asthma using published survey data.

RESULTS

We estimated that 9–23 million and 5–10 million annual asthma emergency room visits globally in 2015 could be attributable to ozone and [Formula: see text], respectively, representing 8–20% and 4–9% of the annual number of global visits, respectively. The range reflects the application of central risk estimates from different epidemiological meta-analyses. Anthropogenic emissions were responsible for [Formula: see text] and 73% of ozone and [Formula: see text] impacts, respectively. Remaining impacts were attributable to naturally occurring ozone precursor emissions (e.g., from vegetation, lightning) and [Formula: see text] (e.g., dust, sea salt), though several of these sources are also influenced by humans. The largest impacts were estimated in China and India.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings estimate the magnitude of the global asthma burden that could be avoided by reducing ambient air pollution. We also identified key uncertainties and data limitations to be addressed to enable refined estimation. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3766.

Future ozone-related acute excess mortality under climate and population change scenarios in China: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Climate change is likely to further worsen ozone pollution in already heavily polluted areas, leading to increased ozone-related health burdens. However, little evidence exists in China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter and most populated country. As China is embracing an aging population with changing population size and falling age-standardized mortality rates, the potential impact of population change on ozone-related health burdens is unclear. Moreover, little is known about the seasonal variation of ozone-related health burdens under climate change. We aimed to assess near-term (mid-21st century) future annual and seasonal excess mortality from short-term exposure to ambient ozone in 104 Chinese cities under 2 climate and emission change scenarios and 6 population change scenarios.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We collected historical ambient ozone observations, population change projections, and baseline mortality rates in 104 cities across China during April 27, 2013, to October 31, 2015 (2013-2015), which included approximately 13% of the total population of mainland China. Using historical ozone monitoring data, we performed bias correction and spatially downscaled future ozone projections at a coarse spatial resolution (2.0° × 2.5°) for the period April 27, 2053, to October 31, 2055 (2053-2055), from a global chemistry-climate model to a fine spatial resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) under 2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5, a moderate global warming and emission scenario where global warming is between 1.5°C and 2.0°C, and RCP8.5, a high global warming and emission scenario where global warming exceeds 2.0°C. We then estimated the future annual and seasonal ozone-related acute excess mortality attributable to both climate and population changes using cause-specific, age-group-specific, and season-specific concentration-response functions (CRFs). We used Monte Carlo simulations to obtain empirical confidence intervals (eCIs), quantifying the uncertainty in CRFs and the variability across ensemble members (i.e., 3 predictions of future climate and air quality from slightly different starting conditions) of the global model. Estimates of future changes in annual ozone-related mortality are sensitive to the choice of global warming and emission scenario, decreasing under RCP4.5 (-24.0%) due to declining ozone precursor emissions but increasing under RCP8.5 (10.7%) due to warming climate in 2053-2055 relative to 2013-2015. Higher ambient ozone occurs under the high global warming and emission scenario (RCP8.5), leading to an excess 1,476 (95% eCI: 898 to 2,977) non-accidental deaths per year in 2053-2055 relative to 2013-2015. Future ozone-related acute excess mortality from cardiovascular diseases was 5-8 times greater than that from respiratory diseases. Ozone concentrations increase by 15.1 parts per billion (10-9) in colder months (November to April), contributing to a net yearly increase of 22.3% (95% eCI: 7.7% to 35.4%) in ozone-related mortality under RCP8.5. An aging population, with the proportion of the population aged 65 years and above increased from 8% in 2010 to 24%-33% in 2050, will substantially amplify future ozone-related mortality, leading to a net increase of 23,838 to 78,560 deaths (110% to 363%). Our analysis was mainly limited by using a single global chemistry-climate model and the statistical downscaling approach to project ozone changes under climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis shows increased future ozone-related acute excess mortality under the high global warming and emission scenario RCP8.5 for an aging population in China. Comparison with the lower global warming and emission scenario RCP4.5 suggests that climate change mitigation measures are needed to prevent a rising health burden from exposure to ambient ozone pollution in China.

Seasonal Influenza Infections and Cardiovascular Disease Mortality

IMPORTANCE

Cardiovascular deaths and influenza epidemics peak during winter in temperate regions.

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the temporal association between population increases in seasonal influenza infections and mortality due to cardiovascular causes and to test if influenza incidence indicators are predictive of cardiovascular mortality during the influenza season.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Time-series analysis of vital statistics records and emergency department visits in New York City, among cardiovascular deaths that occurred during influenza seasons between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2012. The 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1) pandemic period was excluded from temporal analyses.

EXPOSURES

Emergency department visits for influenza-like illness, grouped by age (≥0 years and ≥65 years) and scaled by laboratory surveillance data for viral types and subtypes, in the previous 28 days.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Mortality due to cardiovascular disease, ischemic heart disease, and myocardial infarction.

RESULTS

Among adults 65 years and older, who accounted for 83.0% (73 363 deaths) of nonpandemic cardiovascular mortality during influenza seasons, seasonal average influenza incidence was correlated year to year with excess cardiovascular mortality (Pearson correlation coefficients ≥0.75, P ≤ .05 for 4 different influenza indicators). In daily time-series analyses using 4 different influenza metrics, interquartile range increases in influenza incidence during the previous 21 days were associated with an increase between 2.3% (95% CI, 0.7%-3.9%) and 6.3% (95% CI, 3.7%-8.9%) for cardiovascular disease mortality and between 2.4% (95% CI, 1.1%-3.6%) and 6.9% (95% CI, 4.0%-9.9%) for ischemic heart disease mortality among adults 65 years and older. The associations were most acute and strongest for myocardial infarction mortality, with each interquartile range increase in influenza incidence during the previous 14 days associated with mortality increases between 5.8% (95% CI, 2.5%-9.1%) and 13.1% (95% CI, 5.3%-20.9%). Out-of-sample prediction of cardiovascular mortality among adults 65 years and older during the 2009-2010 influenza season yielded average estimates with 94.0% accuracy using 4 different influenza metrics.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Emergency department visits for influenza-like illness were associated with and predictive of cardiovascular disease mortality. Retrospective estimation of influenza-attributable cardiovascular mortality burden combined with accurate and reliable influenza forecasts could predict the timing and burden of seasonal increases in cardiovascular mortality.

Projecting future climate change impacts on heat-related mortality in large urban areas in China

Global climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and has the potential to increase future mortality attributable to heat. Urban areas are particularly vulnerable to heat because of high concentrations of susceptible people. As the world's largest developing country, China has experienced noticeable changes in climate, partially evidenced by frequent occurrence of extreme heat in urban areas, which could expose millions of residents to summer heat stress that may result in increased health risk, including mortality. While there is a growing literature on future impacts of extreme temperatures on public health, projecting changes in future health outcomes associated with climate warming remains challenging and underexplored, particularly in developing countries. This is an exploratory study aimed at projecting future heat-related mortality risk in major urban areas in China. We focus on the 51 largest Chinese cities that include about one third of the total population in China, and project the potential changes in heat-related mortality based on 19 different global-scale climate models and three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). City-specific risk estimates for high temperature and all-cause mortality were used to estimate annual heat-related mortality over two future twenty-year time periods. We estimated that for the 20-year period in Mid-21st century (2041-2060) relative to 1970-2000, incidence of excess heat-related mortality in the 51 cities to be approximately 37,800 (95% CI: 31,300-43,500), 31,700 (95% CI: 26,200-36,600) and 25,800 (95% CI: 21,300-29,800) deaths per year under RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6, respectively. Slowing climate change through the most stringent emission control scenario RCP2.6, relative to RCP8.5, was estimated to avoid 12,900 (95% CI: 10,800-14,800) deaths per year in the 51 cities in the 2050s, and 35,100 (95% CI: 29,200-40,100) deaths per year in the 2070s. The highest mortality risk is primarily in cities located in the North, East and Central regions of China. Population adaptation to heat is likely to reduce excess heat mortality, but the extent of adaptation is still unclear. Future heat mortality risk attributable to exposure to elevated warm season temperature is likely to be considerable in China's urban centers, with substantial geographic variations. Climate mitigation and heat risk management are needed to reduce such risk and produce substantial public health benefits.

Levels and determinants of tree pollen in New York City

Exposure to allergenic tree pollen is a risk factor for multiple allergic disease outcomes. Little is known about how tree pollen levels vary within cities and whether such variation affects the development or exacerbation of allergic disease. Accordingly, we collected integrated pollen samples at uniform height at 45 sites across New York City during the 2013 pollen season. We used these monitoring results in combination with adjacent land use data to develop a land use regression model for tree pollen. We evaluated four types of land use variables for inclusion in the model: tree canopy, distributed building height (a measure of building volume density), elevation, and distance to water. When included alone in the model, percent tree canopy cover within a 0.5 km radial buffer explained 39% of the variance in tree pollen (1.9% increase in tree pollen per one-percentage point increase in tree canopy cover, P<0.0001). The inclusion of additional variables did not improve model fit. We conclude that intra-urban variation in tree canopy is an important driver of tree pollen exposure. Land use regression models can be used to incorporate spatial variation in tree pollen exposure in studies of allergic disease outcomes.

Long-term projections of temperature-related mortality risks for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and acute ischemic heart disease under changing climate in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future.

OBJECTIVES

To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming.

METHODS

We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period.

RESULTS

In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434-874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580-745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351-2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer.

CONCLUSIONS

We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time.

A county-level estimate of PM2.5 related chronic mortality risk in China based on multi-model exposure data

BACKGROUND

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) pollution is currently a serious environmental problem in China, but evidence of health effects with higher resolution and spatial coverage is insufficient.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to provide a better overall understanding of long-term mortality effects of PM_2.5 pollution in China and a county-level spatial map for estimating PM_2.5 related premature deaths of the entire country.

METHOD

Using four sets of satellite-derived PM_2.5 concentration data and the integrated exposure-response model which has been employed by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) to estimate global mortality of ambient and household air pollution in 2010, we estimated PM_2.5 related premature mortality for five endpoints across China in 2010.

RESULT

Premature deaths attributed to PM_2.5 nationwide amounted to 1.27million in total, and 119,167, 83,976, 390,266, 670,906 for adult chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, and stroke, respectively; 3995 deaths for acute lower respiratory infections were estimated in children under the age of 5. About half of the premature deaths were from counties with annual average PM_2.5 concentrations above 63.61μg/m³, which cover 16.97% of the Chinese territory. These counties were largely located in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the North China Plain. High population density and high pollution areas exhibited the highest health risks attributed to air pollution. On a per capita basis, the highest values were mostly located in heavily polluted industrial regions.

CONCLUSION

PM_2.5-attributable health risk is closely associated with high population density and high levels of pollution in China. Further estimates using long-term historical exposure data and concentration-response (C-R) relationships should be completed in the future to investigate longer-term trends in the effects of PM_2.5.

Development of a heat vulnerability index for New York State

OBJECTIVES

The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events are increasing in New York State (NYS) and have been linked with increased heat-related morbidity and mortality. But these effects are not uniform across the state and can vary across large regions due to regional sociodemographic and environmental factors which impact an individual's response or adaptive capacity to heat and in turn contribute to vulnerability among certain populations. We developed a heat vulnerability index (HVI) to identify heat-vulnerable populations and regions in NYS.

STUDY DESIGN

Census tract level environmental and sociodemographic heat-vulnerability variables were used to develop the HVI to identify heat-vulnerable populations and areas.

METHODS

Variables were identified from a comprehensive literature review and climate-health research in NYS. We obtained data from 2010 US Census Bureau and 2011 National Land Cover Database. We used principal component analysis to reduce correlated variables to fewer uncorrelated components, and then calculated the cumulative HVI for each census tract by summing up the scores across the components. The HVI was then mapped across NYS (excluding New York City) to display spatial vulnerability. The prevalence rates of heat stress were compared across HVI score categories.

RESULTS

Thirteen variables were reduced to four meaningful components representing 1) social/language vulnerability; 2) socioeconomic vulnerability; 3) environmental/urban vulnerability; and 4) elderly/ social isolation. Vulnerability to heat varied spatially in NYS with the HVI showing that metropolitan areas were most vulnerable, with language barriers and socioeconomic disadvantage contributing to the most vulnerability. Reliability of the HVI was supported by preliminary results where higher rates of heat stress were collocated in the regions with the highest HVI.

CONCLUSIONS

The NYS HVI showed spatial variability in heat vulnerability across the state. Mapping the HVI allows quick identification of regions in NYS that could benefit from targeted interventions. The HVI will be used as a planning tool to help allocate appropriate adaptation measures like cooling centers and issue heat alerts to mitigate effects of heat in vulnerable areas.

Heat and mortality for ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in 12 cities of Jiangsu Province, China

BACKGROUND

Little evidence exists on the relationship between heat and subtypes of stroke mortality, especially in China. Moreover, few studies have reported the effect modification by individual characteristics on heat-related stroke mortality. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effect of heat exposure on total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality and its individual modifiers in 12 cities in Jiangsu Province, China during 2009 to 2013.

METHODS

We first used a distributed lag non-linear model with quasi-Poisson regression to examine the city-specific heat-related total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality risks at 99th percentile vs. 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in the whole year for each city, while adjusting for long-term trend, season, relative humidity, and day of the week. Then, we used a random-effects meta-analysis to pool the city-specific risk estimates. We also considered confounding by air pollution and effect modification by gender, age, education level, and death location.

RESULTS

Overall, the heat-related mortality risk in 12 Jiangsu cities was 1.54 (95%CI: 1.44 to 1.65) for total stroke, 1.63 (95%CI: 1.48 to 1.80) for ischemic stroke, and 1.36 (95%CI: 1.26 to 1.48) for hemorrhagic stroke, respectively. Estimated total, ischemic, and hemorrhagic stroke mortality risks were higher for women versus men, older people versus younger people, those with low education levels versus high education levels, and deaths that occurred outside of hospital. Air pollutants did not significantly influence the heat-related stroke mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Heat exposure significantly increased both ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke mortality risks in Jiangsu Province, China. Females, the elderly, and those with low education levels are particularly vulnerable to this effect.

Potential Cardiovascular and Total Mortality Benefits of Air Pollution Control in Urban China

BACKGROUND

Outdoor air pollution ranks fourth among preventable causes of China's burden of disease. We hypothesized that the magnitude of health gains from air quality improvement in urban China could compare with achieving recommended blood pressure or smoking control goals.

METHODS

The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-China projected coronary heart disease, stroke, and all-cause deaths in urban Chinese adults 35 to 84 years of age from 2017 to 2030 if recent air quality (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 µm, PM_2.5) and traditional cardiovascular risk factor trends continue. We projected life-years gained if urban China were to reach 1 of 3 air quality goals: Beijing Olympic Games level (mean PM_2.5, 55 μg/m³), China Class II standard (35 μg/m³), or World Health Organization standard (10 μg/m³). We compared projected air pollution reduction control benefits with potential benefits of reaching World Health Organization hypertension and tobacco control goals.

RESULTS

Mean PM_2.5 reduction to Beijing Olympic levels by 2030 would gain ≈241,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 189 000-293 000) life-years annually. Achieving either the China Class II or World Health Organization PM_2.5 standard would yield greater health benefits (992 000 [95% uncertainty interval, 790 000-1 180 000] or 1 827 000 [95% uncertainty interval, 1 481 00-2 129 000] annual life-years gained, respectively) than World Health Organization-recommended goals of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% reduction in smoking combined (928 000 [95% uncertainty interval, 830 000-1 033 000] life-years).

CONCLUSIONS

Air quality improvement in different scenarios could lead to graded health benefits ranging from 241 000 life-years gained to much greater benefits equal to or greater than the combined benefits of 25% improvement in systolic hypertension control and 30% smoking reduction.

Particulate Matter Exposure and Stress Hormone Levels

Background:

Exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) is associated with a number of adverse health outcomes, but potential mechanisms are largely unknown. Metabolomics represents a powerful approach to study global metabolic changes in response to environmental exposures. We therefore conducted this study to investigate changes in serum metabolites in response to the reduction of PM exposure among healthy college students.

Methods:

We conducted a randomized, double-blind crossover trial in 55 healthy college students in Shanghai, China. Real and sham air purifiers were placed in participants’ dormitories in random order for 9 days with a 12-day washout period. Serum metabolites were quantified by using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry and ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Between-treatment differences in metabolites were examined using orthogonal partial least square-discriminant analysis and mixed-effect models. Secondary outcomes include blood pressure, corticotropin-releasing hormone, adrenocorticotropic hormone, insulin resistance, and biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammation.

Results:

The average personal exposure to PMs with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm was 24.3 μg/m 3 during the real purification and 53.1 μg/m 3 during the sham purification. Metabolomics analysis showed that higher exposure to PMs with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm led to significant increases in cortisol, cortisone, epinephrine, and norepinephrine. Between-treatment differences were also observed for glucose, amino acids, fatty acids, and lipids. We found significantly higher blood pressure, hormones, insulin resistance, and biomarkers of oxidative stress and inflammation among individuals exposed to higher PMs with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm.

Conclusions:

This study suggests that higher PM may induce metabolic alterations that are consistent with activations of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal and sympathetic-adrenal-medullary axes, adding potential mechanistic insights into the adverse health outcomes associated with PM. Furthermore, our study demonstrated short-term reductions in stress hormone following indoor air purification.

Clinical Trial Registration:

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT02712333.

The nexus between urbanization and PM2.5 related mortality in China

The launch of China's new national urbanization plan, coupled with increasing concerns about air pollution, calls for better understandings of the nexus between urbanization and the air pollution-related health. Based on refined estimates of PM_2.5 related mortality in China, we developed an Urbanization-Excess Deaths Elasticity (U-EDE) indicator to measure the marginal PM_2.5 related mortality caused by urbanization. We then applied statistical models to estimate U-EDE and examined the modification effects of income on U-EDE. Urbanization in China between 2004 and 2012 led to increased PM_2.5 related mortality. A 1% increase in urbanization was associated with a 0.32%, 0.14%, and 0.50% increase in PM_2.5 related mortality of lung cancer, stroke, and ischemic heart disease. U-EDEs were modified by income with an inverted U curve, i.e., lower marginal impacts at the lowest and highest income levels. In addition, we projected the future U-EDE trend of China as a whole and found that China had experienced the peak of U-EDE and entered the second half of the inverted U-shaped curve. In the near future, national average U-EDE in China will decline along with the improvement of income level if no dramatic changes happen. However, the decreased U-EDE only implies that marginal PM_2.5-related mortality brought by urbanization would decrease in China. Total health damage of urbanization will keep going up in the predictable future because the U-EDE is always positive.

Assessing Exposure to Household Air Pollution: A Systematic Review and Pooled Analysis of Carbon Monoxide as a Surrogate Measure of Particulate Matter

BACKGROUND

Household air pollution from solid fuel burning is a leading contributor to disease burden globally. Fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) is thought to be responsible for many of these health impacts. A co-pollutant, carbon monoxide (CO) has been widely used as a surrogate measure of PM_2.5 in studies of household air pollution.

OBJECTIVE

The goal was to evaluate the validity of exposure to CO as a surrogate of exposure to PM_2.5 in studies of household air pollution and the consistency of the PM_2.5-CO relationship across different study settings and conditions.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of studies with exposure and/or cooking area PM_2.5 and CO measurements and assembled 2,048 PM_2.5 and CO measurements from a subset of studies (18 cooking area studies and 9 personal exposure studies) retained in the systematic review. We conducted pooled multivariate analyses of PM_2.5-CO associations, evaluating fuels, urbanicity, season, study, and CO methods as covariates and effect modifiers.

RESULTS

We retained 61 of 70 studies for review, representing 27 countries. Reported PM_2.5-CO correlations (r) were lower for personal exposure (range: 0.22-0.97; median=0.57) than for cooking areas (range: 0.10-0.96; median=0.71). In the pooled analyses of personal exposure and cooking area concentrations, the variation in ln(CO) explained 13% and 48% of the variation in ln(PM_2.5), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that exposure to CO is not a consistently valid surrogate measure of exposure to PM_2.5. Studies measuring CO exposure as a surrogate measure of PM exposure should conduct local validation studies for different stove/fuel types and seasons. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP767.

Ambulatory monitoring demonstrates an acute association between cookstove-related carbon monoxide and blood pressure in a Ghanaian cohort

BACKGROUND

Repeated exposure to household air pollution may intermittently raise blood pressure (BP) and affect cardiovascular outcomes. We investigated whether hourly carbon monoxide (CO) exposures were associated with acute increases in ambulatory blood pressure (ABP); and secondarily, if switching to an improved cookstove was associated with BP changes. We also evaluated the feasibility of using 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) in a cohort of pregnant women in Ghana.

METHODS

Participants were 44 women enrolled in the Ghana Randomized Air Pollution and Health Study (GRAPHS). For 27 of the women, BP was measured using 24-h ABPM; home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) was used to measure BP in the remaining 17 women. Personal CO exposure monitoring was conducted alongside the BP monitoring.

RESULTS

ABPM revealed that peak CO exposure (defined as ≥4.1 ppm) in the 2 hours prior to BP measurement was associated with elevations in hourly systolic BP (4.3 mmHg [95% CI: 1.1, 7.4]) and diastolic BP (4.5 mmHg [95% CI: 1.9, 7.2]), as compared to BP following lower CO exposures. Women receiving improved cookstoves had lower post-intervention SBP (within-subject change in SBP of -2.1 mmHg [95% CI: -6.6, 2.4] as compared to control), though this result did not reach statistical significance. 98.1% of expected 24-h ABPM sessions were successfully completed, with 92.5% of them valid according to internationally defined criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate an association between acute exposure to carbon monoxide and transient increases in BP in a West African setting. ABPM shows promise as an outcome measure for assessing cardiovascular health benefits of cookstove interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

The GRAPHS trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov on 13 April 2011 with the identifier NCT01335490 .

What drives cold-related excess mortality in a south Asian tropical monsoon climate-season vs. temperatures and diurnal temperature changes

Despite the tropical climate which is characterized by generally high temperatures and persistent mild temperatures during the winter season, Bangladesh, along with many other tropical countries, experiences strong winter and cold-related excess mortality. The objective of this paper was to analyse the nature of these cold effects and understand the role of season vs. temperature and diurnal changes in temperature. For approaching these questions, we applied different Poisson regression models. Temperature as well as diurnal temperature range (DTR) were considered as predictor variables. Different approaches to seasonality adjustment were evaluated and special consideration was given to seasonal differences in atmospheric effects. Our findings show that while seasonality adjustment affected the magnitude of cold effects, cold-related mortality persisted regardless the adjustment approach. Strongest effects of low temperatures were observed at the same day (lag 1) with an increase of 1.7% (95% CI = 0.86-2.54%) per 1 °C decrease in temperature during the winter season. Diurnal temperature affected mortality with increasing levels at higher ranges. Mortality increased with 0.97% (95% CI = 0.17-1.75%) when looking at the entire season, but effects of DTR were not significant during winter when running a seasonal model. Different from effects observed in the mid-latitudes, cold effects in Bangladesh occurred on a very short time scale highlighting the role of temperature versus season. Insufficient adaptation with regard to housing and clothing might lead to such cold-related increases in mortality despite rather moderate temperature values. Although the study did not demonstrate an effect of DTR during the cold season, the strong correlation with (minimum) temperature might cause a multicollinearity problem and effects are difficult to attribute to one driver.

Acute effect of ozone exposure on daily mortality in seven cities of Jiangsu Province, China: No clear evidence for threshold

BACKGROUND

Few multicity studies have addressed the health effects of ozone in China due to the scarcity of ozone monitoring data. A critical scientific and policy-relevant question is whether a threshold exists in the ozone-mortality relationship.

METHODS

Using a generalized additive model and a univariate random-effects meta-analysis, this research evaluated the relationship between short-term ozone exposure and daily total mortality in seven cities of Jiangsu Province, China during 2013-2014. Spline, subset, and threshold models were applied to further evaluate whether a safe threshold level exists.

RESULTS

This study found strong evidence that short-term ozone exposure is significantly associated with premature total mortality. A 10μg/m³ increase in the average of the current and previous days' maximum 8-h average ozone concentration was associated with a 0.55% (95% posterior interval: 0.34%, 0.76%) increase of total mortality. This finding is robust when considering the confounding effect of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂. No consistent evidence was found for a threshold in the ozone-mortality concentration-response relationship down to concentrations well below the current Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard (CAAQS) level 2 standard (160μg/m³).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that ozone concentrations below the current CAAQS level 2 standard could still induce increased mortality risks in Jiangsu Province, China. Continuous air pollution control measures could yield important health benefits in Jiangsu Province, China, even in cities that meet the current CAAQS level 2 standard.

Acute effect of ozone exposure on daily mortality in seven cities of Jiangsu Province, China: No clear evidence for threshold

BACKGROUND

Few multicity studies have addressed the health effects of ozone in China due to the scarcity of ozone monitoring data. A critical scientific and policy-relevant question is whether a threshold exists in the ozone-mortality relationship.

METHODS

Using a generalized additive model and a univariate random-effects meta-analysis, this research evaluated the relationship between short-term ozone exposure and daily total mortality in seven cities of Jiangsu Province, China during 2013-2014. Spline, subset, and threshold models were applied to further evaluate whether a safe threshold level exists.

RESULTS

This study found strong evidence that short-term ozone exposure is significantly associated with premature total mortality. A 10μg/m³ increase in the average of the current and previous days' maximum 8-h average ozone concentration was associated with a 0.55% (95% posterior interval: 0.34%, 0.76%) increase of total mortality. This finding is robust when considering the confounding effect of PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, and SO₂. No consistent evidence was found for a threshold in the ozone-mortality concentration-response relationship down to concentrations well below the current Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard (CAAQS) level 2 standard (160μg/m³).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that ozone concentrations below the current CAAQS level 2 standard could still induce increased mortality risks in Jiangsu Province, China. Continuous air pollution control measures could yield important health benefits in Jiangsu Province, China, even in cities that meet the current CAAQS level 2 standard.

Impacts of oak pollen on allergic asthma in the United States and potential influence of future climate change

Future climate change is expected to lengthen and intensify pollen seasons in the U.S., potentially increasing incidence of allergic asthma. We developed a proof-of-concept approach for estimating asthma emergency department (ED) visits in the U.S. associated with present-day and climate-induced changes in oak pollen. We estimated oak pollen season length for moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5) and severe climate change scenarios (RCP8.5) through 2090 using five climate models and published relationships between temperature, precipitation, and oak pollen season length. We calculated asthma ED visit counts associated with 1994-2010 average oak pollen concentrations and simulated future oak pollen season length changes using the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program, driven by epidemiologically derived concentration-response relationships. Oak pollen was associated with 21,200 (95% confidence interval, 10,000-35,200) asthma ED visits in the Northeast, Southeast, and Midwest U.S. in 2010, with damages valued at $10.4 million. Nearly 70% of these occurred among children age <18 years. Severe climate change could increase oak pollen season length and associated asthma ED visits by 5% and 10% on average in 2050 and 2090, with a marginal net present value through 2090 of $10.4 million (additional to the baseline value of $346.2 million). Moderate versus severe climate change could avoid >50% of the additional oak pollen-related asthma ED visits in 2090. Despite several key uncertainties and limitations, these results suggest that aeroallergens pose a substantial U.S. public health burden, that climate change could increase U.S. allergic disease incidence, and that mitigating climate change may have benefits from avoided pollen-related health impacts.

Impact of climate change on heat-related mortality in Jiangsu Province, China

A warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.

Long-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Subclinical Cerebrovascular Disease in NOMAS (the Northern Manhattan Study)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with higher risk of cardiovascular disease and stroke. We hypothesized that long-term exposure to air pollution would be associated with magnetic resonance imaging markers of subclinical cerebrovascular disease.

METHODS

Participants were 1075 stroke-free individuals aged ≥50 years drawn from the magnetic resonance imaging subcohort of the Northern Manhattan Study who had lived at the same residence for at least 2 years before magnetic resonance imaging. Cross-sectional associations between ambient air pollution and subclinical cerebrovascular disease were analyzed.

RESULTS

We found an association between distance to roadway, a proxy for residential exposure to traffic pollution, and white matter hyperintensity volume; however, after adjusting for risk factors, this relationship was no longer present. All other associations between pollutant measures and white matter hyperintensity volume were null. There was no clear association between exposure to air pollutants and subclinical brain infarcts or total cerebral brain volume.

CONCLUSIONS

We found no evidence that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution is independently associated with subclinical cerebrovascular disease in an urban population-based cohort.

Urinary Concentrations of Insecticide and Herbicide Metabolites among Pregnant Women in Rural Ghana: A Pilot Study

Use of pesticides by households in rural Ghana is common for residential pest control, agricultural use, and for the reduction of vectors carrying disease. However, few data are available about exposure to pesticides among this population. Our objective was to quantify urinary concentrations of metabolites of organophosphate (OP), pyrethroid, and select herbicides during pregnancy, and to explore exposure determinants. In 2014, 17 pregnant women from rural Ghana were surveyed about household pesticide use and provided weekly first morning urine voids during three visits (n = 51 samples). A total of 90.1% (46/51) of samples had detectable OP metabolites [geometric mean, GM (95% CI): 3,5,6-trichloro-2-pyridinol 0.54 µg/L (0.36–0.81), para-nitrophenol 0.71 µg/L (0.51–1.00)], 75.5% (37/49) had detectable pyrethroid metabolites [GM: 3-phenoxybenzoic acid 0.23 µg/L (0.17, 0.32)], and 70.5% (36/51) had detectable 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid levels, a herbicide [GM: 0.46 µg/L (0.29–0.73)]. Concentrations of para-nitrophenol and 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid in Ghanaian pregnant women appear higher when compared to nonpregnant reproductive-aged women in a reference U.S. population. Larger studies are necessary to more fully explore predictors of exposure in this population.

Fine Particulate Matter Concentrations in Urban Chinese Cities, 2005-2016: A Systematic Review

Background: Particulate matter pollution has become a growing health concern over the past few decades globally. The problem is especially evident in China, where particulate matter levels prior to 2013 are publically unavailable. We conducted a systematic review of scientific literature that reported fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in different regions of China from 2005 to 2016. Methods: We searched for English articles in PubMed and Embase and for Chinese articles in the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We evaluated the studies overall and categorized the collected data into six geographical regions and three economic regions. Results: The mean (SD) PM_2.5 concentration, weighted by the number of sampling days, was 60.64 (33.27) μg/m³ for all geographic regions and 71.99 (30.20) μg/m³ for all economic regions. A one-way ANOVA shows statistically significant differences in PM_2.5 concentrations between the various geographic regions (F = 14.91, p < 0.0001) and the three economic regions (F = 4.55, p = 0.01). Conclusions: This review identifies quantifiable differences in fine particulate matter concentrations across regions of China. The highest levels of fine particulate matter were found in the northern and northwestern regions and especially Beijing. The high percentage of data points exceeding current federal regulation standards suggests that fine particulate matter pollution remains a huge problem for China. As pre-2013 emissions data remain largely unavailable, we hope that the data aggregated from this systematic review can be incorporated into current and future models for more accurate historical PM_2.5 estimates.

Seasonal and temperature modifications of the association between fine particulate air pollution and cardiovascular hospitalization in New York state

It is known that extreme temperature and ambient air pollution are each independently associated with human health outcomes. However, findings from the few studies that have examined modified effects by seasons and the interaction between air pollution and temperature on health endpoints are inconsistent. This study examines the effects of short-term PM_2.5 (particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter) on hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), its modifications by season and temperature, and whether these effects are heterogeneous across different regions in New York State (NYS). We used daily average temperature and PM_2.5 concentrations as exposure indicators and performed a time series analysis with a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for possible confounders, such as time-relevant variables and dew point, for CVDs in NYS, 1991-2006. Stratification parametric models were applied to evaluate the modifying effects by seasons and temperature. Across the whole year, a 10-μg/m³ increment in PM_2.5 concentration accounted for a 1.37% increase in CVDs (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90%, 1.84%) in New York City, Long Island & Hudson. The PM_2.5 effect was strongest in winter, with an additional 2.06% (95% CI: 1.33%, 2.80%) increase in CVDs observed per 10-μg/m³ increment in PM_2.5. Temperature modified the PM_2.5 effects on CVDs, and these modifications by temperature on PM_2.5 effects on CVDs were found at low temperature days. These associations were heterogeneous across four PM_2.5 concentration regions. PM_2.5 was positively associated with CVD hospitalizations. The short-term PM_2.5 effect varied with season and temperature levels, and stronger effects were observed in winter and at low temperature days.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

BACKGROUND

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics.

OBJECTIVES

The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens.

METHODS

We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).

RESULTS

The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.