Acceptability of Aedes aegypti blood feeding on dengue virus-infected human volunteers for vector competence studies in Iquitos, Peru

As part of a study to investigate drivers of dengue virus (DENV) transmission dynamics, this qualitative study explored whether DENV-infected residents of Iquitos, Peru, considered it acceptable (1) to participate in direct mosquito feeding experiments (lab-reared Aedes aegypti mosquitoes fed directly on human volunteers) and (2) to provide blood meals indirectly (Ae. aegypti fed on blood drawn from participants by venipuncture). Twelve focus group discussions (FGDs; 94 participants: 82 females and 12 males) were conducted in January 2014 to explore six themes: (1) concerns and preferences regarding direct mosquito feeds and blood draws, (2) comprehension of and misconceptions about study procedures, (3) motivating factors for participation, (4) acceptability of children's participation, (5) willingness to provide multiple samples over several days, and (6) preference for direct feedings in homes versus the study laboratory. Results of FGDs, including one with 5 of 53 past direct mosquito feed participants, indicated that mosquito feeding procedures are acceptable to Iquitos residents when they are provided with information and a few key messages are properly reinforced. FGD participants' concerns focused primarily on safety issues rather than discomfort associated with mosquito bites. A video explaining the study dramatically increased comprehension of the study procedures. The majority of participants expressed a preference for mosquito feeding over venipuncture. Adults supported child participation if the children themselves assented. For most participants, home feedings were preferred over those in a laboratory. A major impetus for participation was the idea that results would contribute to an improved understanding of DENV transmission in Iquitos. Findings from our study will support future large-scale studies that employ direct mosquito feeding, a low-risk, non-invasive procedure that is experimentally superior to artificial mosquito feeding methods.

Chemical composition, Aedes mosquito larvicidal activity, and repellent activity against Triatoma rubrofasciata of Severinia monophylla leaf essential oil

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are key vectors in the spread of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya, yellow fever, and Zika. Triatoma rubrofasciata is an "assassin bug" whose populations and association with humans have dramatically increased and may represent a serious health concern. Control of insect vectors is a logical course of action to prevent the spread of these insect-borne infections. This work presents the leaf essential oil composition, mosquito larvicidal activities, and insect-repellent activity of Severinia monophylla. The essential oil of S. monophylla from Vietnam was obtained by hydrodistillation and analyzed by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. The major components were sabinene, β-caryophyllene, bicyclogermacrene, germacrene D, (E)-nerolidol, globulol, and linalool. The leaf essential oil showed remarkable larvicidal activity against Ae. aegypti with LC₅₀ (48 h) of 7.1 μg/mL and Ae. albopictus with LC₅₀ (48 h) of 36 μg/mL. The essential oil also showed repellent activity on T. rubrofasciata at a concentration of 0.5%.

Arbovirus coinfection and co-transmission: A neglected public health concern?

Epidemiological synergy between outbreaks of viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses, has resulted in coinfection of humans with multiple viruses. Despite the potential impact on public health, we know only little about the occurrence and consequences of such coinfections. Here, we review the impact of coinfection on clinical disease in humans, discuss the possibility for co-transmission from mosquito to human, and describe a role for modeling transmission dynamics at various levels of co-transmission. Solving the mystery of virus coinfections will reveal whether they should be viewed as a serious concern for public health.

Probability of dengue transmission and propagation in a non-endemic temperate area: conceptual model and decision risk levels for early alert, prevention and control

BACKGROUND

Dengue viruses have spread rapidly across tropical regions of the world in recent decades. Today, dengue transmission is observed in the Americas, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific, Africa and in non-endemic areas of the USA and Europe. Dengue is responsible for 16% of travel-related febrile illnesses. Although most prevalent in tropical areas, risk maps indicate that subtropical regions are suitable for transmission. Dengue-control programs in these regions should focus on minimizing virus importation, community engagement, improved vector surveillance and control.

RESULTS

We developed a conceptual model for the probability of local introduction and propagation of dengue, comprising disease vulnerability and receptivity, in a temperate area, considering risk factors and social media indicators. Using a rich data set from a temperate area in the south of Brazil (where there is active surveillance of mosquitoes, viruses and human cases), we used a conceptual model as a framework to build two probabilistic models to estimate the probability of initiation and propagation of local dengue transmission. The final models estimated with good accuracy the probabilities of local transmission and propagation, with three and four weeks in advance, respectively. Vulnerability indicators (number of imported cases and dengue virus circulation in mosquitoes) and a receptivity indicator (vector abundance) could be optimally integrated with tweets and temperature data to estimate probability of early local dengue transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrated how vulnerability and receptivity indicators can be integrated into probabilistic models to estimate initiation and propagation of dengue transmission. The models successfully estimate disease risk in different scenarios and periods of the year. We propose a decision model with three different risk levels to assist in the planning of prevention and control measures in temperate regions at risk of dengue introduction.

Infectious Disease: Mosquito-Borne Viral Illnesses

Due to rapid globalization and ease of travel, mosquito-borne viral infections are now a concern for family physicians throughout the United States. Zika virus infection is one such concern. It is spread via mosquito bites or by sexual contact with an infected individual. Most patients are asymptomatic, and when symptoms occur, they are mild and nonspecific. The main concern is the potential of the infection to cause fetal anomalies. Dengue is another mosquito-borne viral infection. Symptoms of initial infection are mild, and may include arthralgias. Subsequent infection with a different serotype can cause life-threatening hemorrhagic fever or shock. Chikungunya virus infection is widespread in the Americas and symptoms are similar to those of dengue. However, it can cause a postviral chronic inflammatory rheumatism in up to half of patients. Yellow fever occurs mostly in sub-Saharan Africa and can cause hepatic failure. Encephalitis viruses, most commonly West Nile in the United States and others such as Japanese encephalitis virus, can cause neuroinvasive disease, most often in older adults. Vaccines are available for yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis viruses but the keys to prevention are insect avoidance, mosquito eradication, and use of mosquito repellants.

Islands as Hotspots for Emerging Mosquito-Borne Viruses: A One-Health Perspective

During the past ten years, an increasing number of arbovirus outbreaks have affected tropical islands worldwide. We examined the available literature in peer-reviewed journals, from the second half of the 20th century until 2018, with the aim of gathering an overall picture of the emergence of arboviruses in these islands. In addition, we included information on environmental and social drivers specific to island setting that can facilitate the emergence of outbreaks. Within the context of the One Health approach, our review highlights how the emergence of arboviruses in tropical islands is linked to the complex interplay between their unique ecological settings and to the recent changes in local and global sociodemographic patterns. We also advocate for greater coordination between stakeholders in developing novel prevention and mitigation approaches for an intractable problem.

The PAGODAS protocol: pediatric assessment group of dengue and Aedes saliva protocol to investigate vector-borne determinants of Aedes-transmitted arboviral infections in Cambodia

BACKGROUND

Mosquito-borne arboviruses, like dengue virus, continue to cause significant global morbidity and mortality, particularly in Southeast Asia. When the infectious mosquitoes probe into human skin for a blood meal, they deposit saliva containing a myriad of pharmacologically active compounds, some of which alter the immune response and influence host receptivity to infection, and consequently, the establishment of the virus. Previous reports have highlighted the complexity of mosquito vector-derived factors and immunity in the success of infection. Cumulative evidence from animal models and limited data from humans have identified various vector-derived components, including salivary components, that are co-delivered with the pathogen and play an important role in the dissemination of infection. Much about the roles and effects of these vector-derived factors remain to be discovered.

METHODS/DESIGN

We describe a longitudinal, pagoda (community)-based pediatric cohort study to evaluate the burden of dengue virus infection and document the immune responses to salivary proteins of Aedes aegypti, the mosquito vector of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya viruses. The study includes community-based seroprevalence assessments in the peri-urban town of Chbar Mon in Kampong Speu Province, Cambodia. The study aims to recruit 771 children between the ages of 2 and 9 years for a three year period of longitudinal follow-up, including twice per year (rainy and dry season) serosurveillance for dengue seroconversion and Ae. aegypti salivary gland homogenate antibody intensity determinations by ELISA assays. Diagnostic tests for acute dengue, Zika and chikungunya viral infections will be performed by RT-PCR.

DISCUSSION

This study will serve as a foundation for further understanding of mosquito saliva immunity and its impact on Aedes-transmitted arboviral diseases endemic to Cambodia.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

NCT03534245 registered on 23 May 2018.

Periods of high dengue transmission defined by rainfall do not impact efficacy of dengue vaccine in regions of endemic disease

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of rainy season with overall dengue disease incidence and with the efficacy of the Sanofi Pasteur recombinant, live, attenuated, tetravalent vaccine (CYD-TDV) in two randomized, controlled multicenter phase III clinical trials in Asia and Latin America.

METHODS

Rainy seasons were defined for each study site using climatological information from the World Meteorological Organization. The dengue attack rate in the placebo group for each study month was calculated as the number of symptomatic, virologically-confirmed dengue events in a given month divided by the number of participants at risk in the same month. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazard models were used to test whether rainy season was associated with dengue disease and whether it modified vaccine efficacy in each of the two trials and in both of the trials combined.

FINDINGS

Rainy season, country, and age were all significantly associated with dengue disease in both studies. Vaccine efficacy did not change during the rainy season in any of the analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Although dengue transmission and exposure are expected to increase during the rainy season, our results indicate that CYD-TDV vaccine efficacy remains constant throughout the year in endemic regions.

Mosquito-Borne Diseases

Mosquito-borne diseases have become more common as previously geographically isolated diseases have spread globally. Chikungunya, dengue, Japanese encephalitis, malaria, West Nile, yellow fever, and Zika are a few of the common and emerging viral diseases spread by mosquitoes. A thorough patient history, physical, and knowledge of diagnostic testing based on symptom duration is important to make a quick and accurate diagnosis. Because the treatment for many of these diseases is supportive, the emphasis is on reducing risk and spread of infection.

Risk prediction system for dengue transmission based on high resolution weather data

BACKGROUND

Dengue is the fastest spreading vector-borne viral disease, resulting in an estimated 390 million infections annually. Precise prediction of many attributes related to dengue is still a challenge due to the complex dynamics of the disease. Important attributes to predict include: the risk of and risk factors for an infection; infection severity; and the timing and magnitude of outbreaks. In this work, we build a model for predicting the risk of dengue transmission using high-resolution weather data. The level of dengue transmission risk depends on the vector density, hence we predict risk via vector prediction.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We make use of surveillance data on Aedes aegypti larvae collected by the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control as part of the national routine entomological surveillance of dengue, and weather data simulated using the IBM's Containerized Forecasting Workflow, a high spatial- and temporal-resolution forecasting system. We propose a two stage risk prediction system for assessing dengue transmission via Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In stage one, we perform a logistic regression to determine whether larvae are present or absent at the locations of interest using weather attributes as the explanatory variables. The results are then aggregated to an administrative division, with presence in the division determined by a threshold percentage of larvae positive locations resulting from a bootstrap approach. In stage two, larvae counts are estimated for the predicted larvae positive divisions from stage one, using a zero-inflated negative binomial model. This model identifies the larvae positive locations with 71% accuracy and predicts the larvae numbers producing a coverage probability of 98% over 95% nominal prediction intervals. This two-stage model improves the overall accuracy of identifying larvae positive locations by 29%, and the mean squared error of predicted larvae numbers by 9.6%, against a single-stage approach which uses a zero-inflated binomial regression approach.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate a risk prediction system using high resolution weather data can provide valuable insight to the distribution of risk over a geographical region. The work also shows that a two-stage approach is beneficial in predicting risk in non-homogeneous regions, where the risk is localised.

Alternative insecticides for larval control of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti in Lao PDR: insecticide resistance and semi-field trial study

BACKGROUND

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of several arboviruses, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika, and represents a major public health problem in Southeast Asia. In Laos, where dengue is reemerging, several Ae. aegypti populations from the capital Vientiane have shown resistance to the organophosphate temephos, a commonly-used larvicide for public health interventions.

METHODS

Here, we tested the insecticide susceptibility of a wild larval population of Ae. aegypti against Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis (Bti), diflubenzuron, pyriproxyfen and spinosad. Residual efficacies of Bti (VectobacWG®), diflubenzuron (Killmos®) and temephos (Abate®) were then evaluated under simulated field conditions against the wild Ae. aegypti population.

RESULTS

The larval bioassays showed that the wild Ae. aegypti strain was moderately resistant to temephos and spinosad (resistance ratio, RR < 5) and fully susceptible to the other insecticides (RR = 1). The simulated field trial bioassays showed that all of the insecticides tested remained above the WHO acceptable larvicide threshold after 28 weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

These results suggest that Bti and diflubenzuron may be promising alternative larvicides for controlling dengue vectors in water-storage containers in Laos, especially against Ae. aegypti populations, in which resistance to temephos has been detected.

Dengue in the Philippines: model and analysis of parameters affecting transmission

Dengue is endemic in the Philippines and poses a substantial economic burden in the country. In this work, a compartmentalized model which includes healthcare-seeking class is developed. The reproduction number is determined to investigate critical parameters influencing transmission. Partial rank correlation coefficient (PRCC) technique is performed to address how the model output is affected by changes in a specific parameter disregarding the uncertainty over the rest of the parameters. Results show that mosquito biting rate, transmission probability from mosquito to human, respectively, from human to mosquito, and fraction of individuals who seek healthcare at the onset of the disease, posted high PRCC values. In order to obtain the values for the desired parameters, the reported dengue cases by morbidity week in the Philippines for the year 2014 and 2015 are used. The reliability of parameters is then verified via parametric bootstrap.

Practical unidentifiability of a simple vector-borne disease model: Implications for parameter estimation and intervention assessment

Mathematical modeling has an extensive history in vector-borne disease epidemiology, and is increasingly used for prediction, intervention design, and understanding mechanisms. Many studies rely on parameter estimation to link models and data, and to tailor predictions and counterfactuals to specific settings. However, few studies have formally evaluated whether vector-borne disease models can properly estimate the parameters of interest given the constraints of a particular dataset. Identifiability analysis allows us to examine whether model parameters can be estimated uniquely-a lack of consideration of such issues can result in misleading or incorrect parameter estimates and model predictions. Here, we evaluate both structural (theoretical) and practical identifiability of a commonly used compartmental model of mosquito-borne disease, using the 2010 dengue epidemic in Taiwan as a case study. We show that while the model is structurally identifiable, it is practically unidentifiable under a range of human and mosquito time series measurement scenarios. In particular, the transmission parameters form a practically identifiable combination and thus cannot be estimated separately, potentially leading to incorrect predictions of the effects of interventions. However, in spite of the unidentifiability of the individual parameters, the basic reproduction number was successfully estimated across the unidentifiable parameter ranges. These identifiability issues can be resolved by directly measuring several additional human and mosquito life-cycle parameters both experimentally and in the field. While we only consider the simplest case for the model, we show that a commonly used model of vector-borne disease is unidentifiable from human and mosquito incidence data, making it difficult or impossible to estimate parameters or assess intervention strategies. This work illustrates the importance of examining identifiability when linking models with data to make predictions and inferences, and particularly highlights the importance of combining laboratory, field, and case data if we are to successfully estimate epidemiological and ecological parameters using models.

Characterization of Wolbachia enhancing domain in mosquitoes with imperfect maternal transmission

A novel method to reduce the burden of dengue is to seed wild mosquitoes with Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in dengue-endemic areas. Concerns in current mathematical models are to locate the Wolbachia introduction threshold. Our recent findings manifest that the threshold is highly dependent on the initial population size once Wolbachia infection alters the logistic control death rate of infected females. However, counting mosquitoes is beyond the realms of possibility. A plausible method is to monitor the infection frequency. We propose the concept of Wolbachia enhancing domain in which the infection frequency keeps increasing. A detailed description of the domain is presented. Our results suggest that both the initial population size and the infection frequency should be taken into account for optimal release strategies. Both Wolbachia fixation and extinction permit the oscillation of the infection frequency.

Statistical modeling of the effect of rainfall flushing on dengue transmission in Singapore

BACKGROUND

Rainfall patterns are one of the main drivers of dengue transmission as mosquitoes require standing water to reproduce. However, excess rainfall can be disruptive to the Aedes reproductive cycle by "flushing out" aquatic stages from breeding sites. We developed models to predict the occurrence of such "flushing" events from rainfall data and to evaluate the effect of flushing on dengue outbreak risk in Singapore between 2000 and 2016.

METHODS

We used machine learning and regression models to predict days with "flushing" in the dataset based on entomological and corresponding rainfall observations collected in Singapore. We used a distributed lag nonlinear logistic regression model to estimate the association between the number of flushing events per week and the risk of a dengue outbreak.

RESULTS

Days with flushing were identified through the developed logistic regression model based on entomological data (test set accuracy = 92%). Predictions were based upon the aggregate number of thresholds indicating unusually rainy conditions over multiple weeks. We observed a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk one to six weeks after flushing events occurred. For weeks with five or more flushing events, compared with weeks with no flushing events, the risk of a dengue outbreak in the subsequent weeks was reduced by 16% to 70%.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a high accuracy predictive model associating temporal rainfall patterns with flushing conditions. Using predicted flushing events, we have demonstrated a statistically significant reduction in dengue outbreak risk following flushing, with the time lag well aligned with time of mosquito development from larvae and infection transmission. Vector control programs should consider the effects of hydrological conditions in endemic areas on dengue transmission.

Factors Associated with Dengue Virus Infection and Reinfection in Asymptomatic Children in Two Colombian Municipalities

Dengue is the most important arbovirosis in the world. In this study, we assessed the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding dengue in parents from two small Colombian municipalities in the Cundinamarca Province. Parents and their healthy children from 4 to 14 years of age were included in some public elementary schools. After a medical examination, blood samples were taken for diagnosis of dengue using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (capture immunoglobulin M and capture immunoglobulin G [IgG], indirect IgG and detection non-structural viral protein 1) and detection of viral RNA by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. In addition, a KAP survey was applied to the children's parents or tutors. The indirect IgG test determined that of the 347 examined children, 87.9% had a previous infection with the dengue virus (DENV), 12.7% of them were positive for viral RNA (asymptomatic infection), and 32.0% presented reinfections. Risk factors evaluation showed that children aged 8 years and older living in the municipalities for more than 7 years were more likely to be infected or reinfected by DENV. In the same way, poor nutrition, lack of water supply, sewer service, or waste disposal services could raise the likelihood of dengue infections. The surveys indicated that parents have unhealthy practices and a low knowledge about the transmission of the disease, which could result in an increase of mosquito breeding sites, allowing sustained dengue transmission.

Epidemiological characteristics and determinants of dengue transmission during epidemic and non-epidemic years in Fortaleza, Brazil: 2011-2015

BACKGROUND

After being eliminated during the 1950s, dengue reemerged in Brazil in the 1980s. Since then, incidence of the disease has increased, as serotypes move within and between cities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes contributes to cycles of epidemic and interepidemic years, and a seasonal pattern of transmission is observed annually. Little is known regarding possible differences in the epidemiology of dengue under epidemic and interepidemic scenarios. This study addresses this gap and aims to assess the epidemiological characteristics and determinants of epidemic and interepidemic dengue transmission, utilizing data from the 5th largest city in Brazil (Fortaleza), at fine spatial and temporal scales.

METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Longitudinal models of monthly rates of confirmed dengue cases were used to estimate the differential contribution of contextual factors to dengue transmission in Fortaleza between 2011 and 2015. Models were stratified by annual climatological schedules and periods of interepidemic and epidemic transmission, controlling for social, economic, structural, entomological, and environmental factors. Results revealed distinct seasonal patterns between interepidemic and epidemic years, with persistent transmission after June in interepidemic years. Dengue was strongly associated with violence across strata, and with poverty and irregular garbage collection during periods of low transmission, but not with other indicators of public service provision or structural deprivation. Scrapyards and sites associated with tire storage were linked to incidence differentially between seasons, with the strongest associations during transitional precipitation periods. Hierarchical clustering analysis suggests that the dengue burden concentrates in the southern periphery of the city, particularly during periods of minimal transmission.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our findings have direct programmatic implications. Vector control operations must be sustained after June even in non-epidemic years. More specifically, scrapyards and sites associated with tires (strongly associated with incidence during periods of minimal transmission), require sustained entomological surveillance, particularly during interepidemic intervals and in the urban periphery. Intersectoral collaborations that address urban violence are critical for facilitating the regular activities of vector control agents.

Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city

Outbreaks of arbovirus infections vectored by invasive Aedes albopictus have already occurred and are predicted to become increasingly frequent in Southern Europe. We present a probabilistic model to assess risk of arbovirus outbreaks based on incident cases worldwide, on the probability of arrival of infected travelers, and on the abundance of the vector species. Our results show a significant risk of Chikungunya outbreak in Rome from mid June to October in simulations with high human biting rates (i.e. when ≥50% of the population is bitten every day). The outbreak risk is predicted to be highest for Chikungunya and null for Zika. Simulated increase of incident cases in selected endemic countries has no major impact on the outbreak risk. The model correctly estimated the number of imported cases and can be easily adapted to other urban areas where Ae. albopictus is the only potential vector present.

Comparative transcriptome analysis and RNA interference reveal CYP6A8 and SNPs related to pyrethroid resistance in Aedes albopictus

Wide and improper application of pyrethroid insecticides for mosquito control has resulted in widespread resistance in Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, an important dengue vector. Therefore, understanding the molecular regulation of insecticide resistance is urgently needed to provide a basis for developing novel resistance diagnostic methods and vector control approaches. We investigated the transcriptional profiles of deltamethrin-resistant and -susceptible Ae. albopictus by performing paired-end sequencing for RNA expression analysis. The analysis used 24 independent libraries constructed from 12 wild-caught resistant and 12 susceptible Ae. albopictus female adults. A total of 674,503,592 and 612,512,034 reads were obtained, mapped to the Ae. albopictus genome and assembled into 20,091 Ae. albopictus transcripts. A total of 1,130 significantly differentially expressed genes included 874 up-regulated genes and 256 down-regulated genes in the deltamethrin-resistant individuals. These differentially expressed genes code for cytochrome P450s, cuticle proteins, glutathione S-transferase, serine proteases, heat shock proteins, esterase, and others. We selected three highly differentially expressed candidate genes, CYP6A8 and two genes of unknown function (CCG013931 and CCG000656), to test the association between these 3 genes and deltamethrin resistance using RNAi through microinjection in adult mosquitoes and oral feeding in larval mosquitoes. We found that expression knockdown of these three genes caused significant changes in resistance. Further, we detected 1,162 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with a frequency difference of more than 50%. Among them, 5 SNPs in 4 cytochrome P450 gene families were found to be significantly associated with resistance in a genotype-phenotype association study using independent field-collected mosquitoes of known resistance phenotypes. Altogether, a combination of novel individually based transcriptome profiling, RNAi, and genetic association study identified both differentially expressed genes and SNPs associated with pyrethroid resistance in Ae. albopictus mosquitoes, and laid a useful foundation for further studies on insecticide resistance mechanisms.

Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.

A comparison of Zika and dengue outbreaks using national surveillance data in the Dominican Republic

BACKGROUND

Aedes-borne arboviruses continue to precipitate epidemics worldwide. In Dominican Republic, the appearance of Zika virus cases that closely followed a large dengue epidemic provided an opportunity to study the different transmission drivers behind these two flaviviruses. Retrospective datasets were used to collect information on the populations at risk and descriptive statistics were used to describe the outbreaks on a national scale.

METHODOLOGY/ PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Expectedly, box plots showed that 75% of dengue was reported in those aged <20 years while Zika infections were more widely dispersed among the population. Dengue attack rates were marginally higher among males at 25.9 per 10,000 population vs. 21.5 per 10,000 population for females. Zika infections appeared to be highly clustered among females (73.8% (95% CI 72.6%, 75.0%; p<0.05)); age-adjusted Zika attack rates among females were 7.64 per 10,000 population compared with 2.72 per 10,000 population among males. R0 calculations stratified by sex also showed a significantly higher metric among females: 1.84 (1.82, 1.87; p<0.05) when compared to males at 1.72 (1.69, 1.75; p<0.05). However, GBS attack rates stratified by sex revealed slightly higher risk in males vs. females, at 0.62 and 0.57 per 10,000 population respectively.

CONCLUSIONS/ SIGNIFICANCE

Evidence suggests little impact of existing dengue immunity on reported attack rates of Zika at the population level. Confounding of R0 and incident risk calculations by sex-specific over-reporting can alter the reliability of epidemiological metrics, which could be addressed using associated proxy syndromes or conditions to explore seemingly sex-skewed incidence. The findings indicate that community awareness campaigns, through influencing short-term health seeking behaviour, remain the most plausible mechanism behind increased reporting among women of reproductive age, although biological susceptibility cannot yet be ruled out. Media campaigns and screening are therefore recommended for women of reproductive age during Zika outbreaks. Future research should focus on clinical Zika outcomes among dengue seropositive individuals.

Optimal control strategies for dengue transmission in pakistan

This paper presents a deterministic model for dengue virus transmission. The model is parameterized using data from the 2017 dengue outbreak in Pakistan. We estimated the basic reproduction number (R₀) without any interventions for the 2017 dengue outbreak in Peshawar district of Pakistan as R₀≈2.64, the distribution of the reproduction number lies in the range R₀∈[1.21,5.24] (with a mean R₀≈2.64). Optimal control theory is then applied to investigate the optimal strategy for curtailing the spread of the disease using two time-dependent control variables determined from sensitivity analysis. These control variables are insecticide use and vaccination. The results show that the two controls avert the same number of infections in the district regardless of the weights on the costs this is due to the reciprocal relationship between the cost of insecticide use and vaccination. A strong reciprocal relationship exists between the use of insecticide and vaccination; as the cost of insecticide increases the use of vaccination increases. The use of insecticide on the other hand slightly increases when vaccination level decreases due to increase in cost.

Dynamics and determinants of the force of infection of dengue virus from 1994 to 2015 in Managua, Nicaragua

Dengue virus (DENV) is the most prevalent human vector-borne viral disease. The force of infection (FoI), the rate at which susceptible individuals are infected in a population, is an important metric for infectious disease modeling. Understanding how and why the FoI of DENV changes over time is critical for developing immunization and vector control policies. We used age-stratified seroprevalence data from 12 years of the Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study in Nicaragua to estimate the annual FoI of DENV from 1994 to 2015. Seroprevalence data revealed a change in the rate at which children acquire DENV-specific immunity: in 2004, 50% of children age >4 years were seropositive, but by 2015, 50% seropositivity was reached only by age 11 years. We estimated a spike in the FoI in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999 and a gradual decline thereafter, and children age <4 years experienced a lower FoI. Two hypotheses to explain the change in the FoI were tested: (i) a transition from introduction of specific DENV serotypes to their endemic transmission and (ii) a population demographic transition due to declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. We used mathematical models to simulate these hypotheses. We show that the initial high FoI can be explained by the introduction of DENV-3 in 1994-1998, and that the overall gradual decline in the FoI can be attributed to demographic shifts. Changes in immunity and demographics strongly impacted DENV transmission in Nicaragua. Population-level measures of transmission intensity are dynamic and thus challenging to use to guide vaccine implementation locally and globally.

Low frequency of asymptomatic dengue virus-infected donors in blood donor centers during the largest dengue outbreak in Taiwan

To determine the prevalence of asymptomatic dengue virus-infected blood donors during the largest dengue outbreak in Taiwan history occurred in 2015, we examined the evidence of dengue virus (DENV) infection by the detection of DENV RNA genome using real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (real-time RT-PCR), DENV NS1 antigen using rapid diagnosis test (RDT) and anti-dengue antibody using IgM/IgG capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (capture ELISA) and RDT in eight thousand serum samples from blood donations to the blood centers of the Taiwan Blood Services Foundation (TBSF) in Kaohsiung City and Tainan City during the largest dengue outbreak in Taiwan history occurred in 2015. Only one serum sample was positive for DENV RNA detection by using dengue-specific real-time RT-PCR, the virus was DENV-2 determined by serotype-specific real-time RT-PCR and sequencing, and the DENVs in the serum were confirmed as being infectious by a plaque assay. The recipient of this blood did not develop any dengue fever symptom on follow-up. None of the samples was NS1 RDT-reactive. Seventeen IgM-positive samples were identified. There was a low prevalence of asymptomatic confirmed or probable DENV-infected blood donors in our study (0.013% and 0.21%, respectively), and no symptomatic transfusion-transmitted dengue (TT dengue) was developed during the largest dengue outbreak in Taiwan history in highly endemic areas and periods.

Use of chemical probes to explore the toxicological potential of the K+/Cl- cotransporter (KCC) as a novel insecticide target to control the primary vector of dengue and Zika virus, Aedes aegypti

The majority of commercialized insecticides target the insect nervous system and therefore, neural proteins are well-validated targets for insecticide development. Considering that only a few neural targets are exploited for insecticidal action and the development of insecticide resistance has reduced the efficacy of current insecticidal classes, we sought to test the toxicological potential of the potassium-chloride cotransporter (KCC). In mammals, KCC proteins have seminal roles in shaping GABAergic signaling and inhibitory neurotransmission, thus ion transport through KCC is critical for proper neurotransmission. Therefore, we hypothesized that mosquito KCC represents a putative insecticide target site and that pharmacological inhibition of KCC constructs in Aedes aegypti will be lethal. To test this hypothesis, we developed a robust, cell-based fluorescence assay that enables in vitro characterization of small-molecules against Ae. aegypti KCC and performed a proof-of-concept study employing well characterized mammalian KCC modulators to determine the toxicological potential of Ae. aegypti KCC. The selective inhibitor of mammalian KCC, termed VU0463271, was found to be a potent inhibitor Ae. aegypti KCC and microinjection induced lethality in a concentration-dependent manner to susceptible and pyrethroid resistant strains. Importantly, an analog of VU0463271 was shown to be >40-fold less potent and did not induce toxicity, suggesting that the observed physiological effects and mortality are likely due to KCC inhibition. This proof-of-concept study suggests that Ae. aegypti KCC represents a putative target site for mosquitocide design that can mitigate the current mechanisms of insecticide resistance.

Dynamics of delayed mosquitoes populations models with two different strategies of releasing sterile mosquitoes

To prevent the transmissions of mosquito-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue fever), recent works have considered the problem of using the sterile insect technique to reduce or eradicate the wild mosquito population. It is important to consider how reproductive advantage of the wild mosquito population offsets the success of population replacement. In this work, we explore the interactive dynamics of the wild and sterile mosquitoes by incorporating the delay in terms of the growth stage of the wild mosquitoes. We analyze (both analytically and numerically) the role of time delay in two different ways of releasing sterile mosquitoes. Our results demonstrate that in the case of constant release rate, the delay does not affect the dynamics of the system and every solution of the system approaches to an equilibrium point; while in the case of the release rate proportional to the wild mosquito populations, the delay has a large effect on the dynamics of the system, namely, for some parameter ranges, when the delay is small, every solution of the system approaches to an equilibrium point; but as the delay increases, the solutions of the system exhibit oscillatory behavior via Hopf bifurcations. Numerical examples and bifurcation diagrams are also given to demonstrate rich dynamical features of the model in the latter release case.

Assessment of the Public Health Threats Posed by Vector-Borne Disease in the United Kingdom (UK)

In recent years, the known distribution of vector-borne diseases in Europe has changed, with much new information also available now on the status of vectors in the United Kingdom (UK). For example, in 2016, the UK reported their first detection of the non-native mosquito Aedes albopictus, which is a known vector for dengue and chikungunya virus. In 2010, Culex modestus, a principal mosquito vector for West Nile virus was detected in large numbers in the Thames estuary. For tick-borne diseases, data on the changing distribution of the Lyme borreliosis tick vector, Ixodes ricinus, has recently been published, at a time when there has been an increase in the numbers of reported human cases of Lyme disease. This paper brings together the latest surveillance data and pertinent research on vector-borne disease in the UK, and its relevance to public health. It highlights the need for continued vector surveillance systems to monitor our native mosquito and tick fauna, as well as the need to expand surveillance for invasive species. It illustrates the importance of maintaining surveillance capacity that is sufficient to ensure accurate and timely disease risk assessment to help mitigate the UK's changing emerging infectious disease risks, especially in a time of climatic and environmental change and increasing global connectivity.

Two-level resolution of relative risk of dengue disease in a hyperendemic city of Colombia

Risk maps of dengue disease offer to the public health officers a tool to model disease risk in space and time. We analyzed the geographical distribution of relative incidence risk of dengue disease in a high incidence city from Colombia, and its evolution in time during the period January 2009—December 2015, identifying regional effects at different levels of spatial aggregations. Cases of dengue disease were geocoded and spatially allocated to census sectors, and temporally aggregated by epidemiological periods. The census sectors are nested in administrative divisions defined as communes, configuring two levels of spatial aggregation for the dengue cases. Spatio-temporal models including census sector and commune-level spatially structured random effects were fitted to estimate dengue incidence relative risks using the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) technique. The final selected model included two-level spatial random effects, a global structured temporal random effect, and a census sector-level interaction term. Risk maps by epidemiological period and risk profiles by census sector were generated from the modeling process, showing the transmission dynamics of the disease. All the census sectors in the city displayed high risk at some epidemiological period in the outbreak periods. Relative risk estimation of dengue disease using INLA offered a quick and powerful method for parameter estimation and inference.

Multiple insecticide resistance mechanisms in primary dengue vector, Aedes aegypti (Linn.) from dengue endemic districts of sub-Himalayan West Bengal, India

Background

Mosquitoes belonging to genus Aedes are the prime vectors of several arboviral diseases such as Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya worldwide. Every year numerous cases of dengue infections occur throughout the world, proper control of which depends on efficient vector control. However the onset of insecticide resistance has resulted in failure of vector control approaches.

Principal findings

This study was carried out to unveil the degree of prevailing insecticide resistance along with its underlying mechanisms among the primary dengue vector in dengue endemic districts of West Bengal, India through standard WHO protocol. It was observed that, the majority of the tested populations were found to possess resistance to more than one insecticide. In adult bioassay, the toxicity levels of the six tested insecticides was found to decrease in the following order: deltamethrin > lambdacyhalothrin > malathion > propoxur > permethrin > DDT. In larval bioassay, one of the tested populations was found to possess moderate resistance against temephos, mortality percentage 92.5% and 79.8% for WHO (0.0200 ppm) and National Vector Borne disease Programme, India recommended dose (0.0125 ppm) respectively. Carboxylesterases were found to be involved in conferring resistance as revealed in synergistic and quantitative assay against temephos in North Dinajpur (NDP) population and malathion in Alipurduar (APD) and Darjeeling (DAR) populations. Similar correlations were also observed in the majority of the tested populations between reduced susceptibilities against pyrethroid insecticides and Cytochrome P₄₅₀s activity.

Conclusion

Efficient disease management in this region can only be achieved through proper integrated vector management along with tools to minimize insecticide resistance. This study may help the concerned authorities in the formulation of an effective vector control strategy throughout this region incorporating the knowledge gained through this study.

Scoping review on vector-borne diseases in urban areas: transmission dynamics, vectorial capacity and co-infection

BACKGROUND

Transmission dynamics, vectorial capacity, and co-infections have substantial impacts on vector-borne diseases (VBDs) affecting urban and suburban populations. Reviewing key factors can provide insight into priority research areas and offer suggestions for potential interventions.

MAIN BODY

Through a scoping review, we identify knowledge gaps on transmission dynamics, vectorial capacity, and co-infections regarding VBDs in urban areas. Peer-reviewed and grey literature published between 2000 and 2016 was searched. We screened abstracts and full texts to select studies. Using an extraction grid, we retrieved general data, results, lessons learned and recommendations, future research avenues, and practice implications. We classified studies by VBD and country/continent and identified relevant knowledge gaps. Of 773 articles selected for full-text screening, 50 were included in the review: 23 based on research in the Americas, 15 in Asia, 10 in Africa, and one each in Europe and Australia. The largest body of evidence concerning VBD epidemiology in urban areas concerned dengue and malaria. Other arboviruses covered included chikungunya and West Nile virus, other parasitic diseases such as leishmaniasis and trypanosomiasis, and bacterial rickettsiosis and plague. Most articles retrieved in our review combined transmission dynamics and vectorial capacity; only two combined transmission dynamics and co-infection. The review identified significant knowledge gaps on the role of asymptomatic individuals, the effects of co-infection and other host factors, and the impacts of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors on VBD transmission in urban areas. Limitations included the trade-off from narrowing the search strategy (missing out on classical modelling studies), a lack of studies on co-infections, most studies being only descriptive, and few offering concrete public health recommendations. More research is needed on transmission risk in homes and workplaces, given increasingly dynamic and mobile populations. The lack of studies on co-infection hampers monitoring of infections transmitted by the same vector.

CONCLUSIONS

Strengthening VBD surveillance and control, particularly in asymptomatic cases and mobile populations, as well as using early warning tools to predict increasing transmission, were key strategies identified for public health policy and practice.

Forecasting incidence of dengue and selecting best method for prevention

This study forecast future infected patients from dengue and also sought optimum solution for its prevention. Previous years' data of dengue patients was used for forecasting numbers of infected patients in 2017. The novelty of the study is the application of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique in application of dengue control. We employed AHP to rank the alternative for dengue prevention using perception of general public collected via questioners from 100 respondents across Pakistan. The results show that public considered not to let the water accumulate inside their homes as the most economical, effective, efficient and less labour intensive alternative to combat dengue.

Modeling Dengue vector population using remotely sensed data and machine learning

Mosquitoes are vectors of many human diseases. In particular, Aedes ægypti (Linnaeus) is the main vector for Chikungunya, Dengue, and Zika viruses in Latin America and it represents a global threat. Public health policies that aim at combating this vector require dependable and timely information, which is usually expensive to obtain with field campaigns. For this reason, several efforts have been done to use remote sensing due to its reduced cost. The present work includes the temporal modeling of the oviposition activity (measured weekly on 50 ovitraps in a north Argentinean city) of Aedes ægypti (Linnaeus), based on time series of data extracted from operational earth observation satellite images. We use are NDVI, NDWI, LST night, LST day and TRMM-GPM rain from 2012 to 2016 as predictive variables. In contrast to previous works which use linear models, we employ Machine Learning techniques using completely accessible open source toolkits. These models have the advantages of being non-parametric and capable of describing nonlinear relationships between variables. Specifically, in addition to two linear approaches, we assess a support vector machine, an artificial neural networks, a K-nearest neighbors and a decision tree regressor. Considerations are made on parameter tuning and the validation and training approach. The results are compared to linear models used in previous works with similar data sets for generating temporal predictive models. These new tools perform better than linear approaches, in particular nearest neighbor regression (KNNR) performs the best. These results provide better alternatives to be implemented operatively on the Argentine geospatial risk system that is running since 2012.

A review on test methods for insecticidal fabrics and the need for standardisation

Insecticidal fabrics are effective personal protective measures against disease vectors and unlike bed nets, these fabrics can provide protection from day-biting mosquitoes and in outdoor environments. The rapid geographical expansion of day-biting mosquitoes and their role in disease transmission necessitate technological interventions, which can be effectively used during the daytime. There is a renewed interest in insecticidal fabrics mainly due to the recent outbreaks and geographical spread of dengue and chikungunya and with the emerging threat of Zika virus infection. Insecticidal fabrics are useful for protection from night-biting mosquitoes and also in situations were sleeping under a bed net is not possible. They are also effective against other biting arthropods like ticks, mites, tsetse flies, sand flies and body lice. Although long-lasting insecticidal fabrics factory-treated with permethrin are now commercially available for military and civilian use, there are no international guidelines for testing their efficacy. The different methods employed so far for testing bioefficacy, washing and quantification of permethrin are compiled in this review. The future prospects and challenges ahead for long-lasting insecticidal fabrics are discussed in the context of the increased threat from day-biting mosquitoes and the diseases transmitted by them. The review focuses on the need for standardisation of the test methods for ensuring adequate bioefficacy and safety to the user. The differences between long-lasting insecticidal nets and long-lasting insecticidal fabrics are elaborated, and the need for a separate registration and licencing procedure for long-lasting insecticidal fabrics is highlighted. A test procedure for insecticidal fabrics is described, which could be used until internationally accepted guidelines are available.

Construction sites as an important driver of dengue transmission: implications for disease control

BACKGROUND

In 2013 and 2014, Singapore experienced its worst dengue outbreak known-to-date. Mosquito breeding in construction sites stood out as a probable risk factor due to its association with major dengue clusters in both years. We, therefore, investigated the contribution of construction sites to dengue transmission in Singapore, highlighting three case studies of large construction site-associated dengue clusters recorded during 2013-16.

METHODS

The study included two components; a statistical analysis of cluster records from 2013 to 2016, and case studies of three biggest construction site-associated clusters. We explored the odds of construction site-associated clusters growing into major clusters and determined whether clusters seeded in construction sites demonstrated a higher tendency to expand into major clusters. DENV strains obtained from dengue patients residing in three major clusters were genotyped to determine whether the same strains expanded into the surroundings of construction sites.

RESULTS

Despite less than 5% of total recorded clusters being construction site-associated, the odds of such clusters expanding into major clusters were 17.4 (2013), 9.2 (2014), 3.3 (2015) and 4.3 (2016) times higher than non-construction site clusters. Aedes premise index and average larvae count per habitat were also higher in construction sites than residential premises during the study period. The majority of cases in clusters associated with construction sites were residents living in the surroundings. Virus genotype data from three case study sites revealed a transmission link between the construction sites and the surrounding residential areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Significantly high case burden and the probability of cluster expansion due to virus spill-over into surrounding areas suggested that construction sites play an important role as a driver of sustained dengue transmission. Our results emphasise that the management of construction-site associated dengue clusters should not be limited to the implicated construction sites, but be extended to the surrounding premises to prevent further transmission.

Analysis of a Dengue Model with Vertical Transmission and Application to the 2014 Dengue Outbreak in Guangdong Province, China

There is evidence showing that vertical transmission of dengue virus exists in Aedes mosquitoes. In this paper, we propose a deterministic dengue model with vertical transmission in mosquitoes by including aquatic mosquitoes (eggs, larvae and pupae), adult mosquitoes (susceptible, exposed and infectious) and human hosts (susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered). We first analyze the existence and stability of disease-free equilibria, calculate the basic reproduction number and discuss the existence of the disease-endemic equilibrium. Then, we study the impact of vertical transmission of the virus in mosquitoes on the spread dynamics of dengue. We also use the model to simulate the reported infected human data from the 2014 dengue outbreak in Guangdong Province, China, carry out sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number in terms of the model parameters, and seek for effective control measures for the transmission of dengue virus.

Prediction of dengue outbreaks in Mexico based on entomological, meteorological and demographic data

Dengue virus has shown a complex pattern of transmission across Latin America over the last two decades. In an attempt to explain the permanence of the disease in regions subjected to drought seasons lasting over six months, various hypotheses have been proposed. These include transovarial transmission, forest reservoirs and asymptomatic human virus carriers. Dengue virus is endemic in Mexico, a country in which half of the population is seropositive. Seropositivity is a risk factor for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever upon a second encounter with the dengue virus. Since Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever can cause death, it is important to develop epidemiological mathematical tools that enable policy makers to predict regions potentially at risk for a dengue epidemic. We formulated a mathematical model of dengue transmission, considering both human behavior and environmental conditions pertinent to the transmission of the disease. When data on past human population density, temperature and rainfall were entered into this model, it provided an accurate picture of the actual spread of dengue over recent years in four states (representing two climactic conditions) in Mexico.

Quantifying the survival uncertainty of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in a spatial model

Artificial releases of Wolbachia-infected Aedes mosquitoes have been under study in the past yearsfor fighting vector-borne diseases such as dengue, chikungunya and zika.Several strains of this bacterium cause cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and can also affect their host's fecundity or lifespan, while highly reducing vector competence for the main arboviruses. We consider and answer the following questions: 1) what should be the initial condition (i.e. size of the initial mosquito population) to have invasion with one mosquito release source? We note that it is hard to have an invasion in such case. 2) How many release points does one need to have sufficiently high probability of invasion? 3) What happens if one accounts for uncertainty in the release protocol (e.g. unequal spacing among release points)? We build a framework based on existing reaction-diffusion models for the uncertainty quantification in this context,obtain both theoretical and numerical lower bounds for the probability of release successand give new quantitative results on the one dimensional case.

Oviposition preferences of dengue vectors; Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Sri Lanka under laboratory settings

Investigations on oviposition behaviour of dengue vectors are critical for effective controlling of vector breeding. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to determine the oviposition behaviour of dengue vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in Sri Lanka. Batches of 1000 adult mosquitoes (1 : 1, male: female ratio) housed in rearing cages were used for each experimental setup from Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Oviposition responses with respect to the size of the ovitrap, colours of the ovitrap, water source, sodium chloride (NaCl) concentration and presence/absence of larvae were evaluated by enumerating the number of eggs laid in the ovitraps. The analysis of variance and cluster analysis were used to investigate the significance in the variations among oviposition. The number of eggs laid by both species were improved with the increasing size of ovitraps. Ae. albopictus indicated the highest mean number of eggs in 0.2% of NaCl than in the ovitraps filled with distilled water. However, the egg laying preference was reduced with increasing salinity in both species. Drain water with low dissolved oxygen (DO) level (0.43 ± 0.12 mg l-1) was the preferred water source for both species, while a significantly high oviposition rate was observed in ovitraps with larvae. Black colour ovitraps attracted the majority of gravid females, while white was least preferred. There were no significant variations among oviposition behaviours of Ae. albopictus and Ae. aegypti. The ability of these vectors to breed in waste water with low DO levels may lead them to attain wide dissemination in the natural environment, enhancing their potential threat to human life.

Global dynamics of a vector-host epidemic model with age of infection

In this paper, a partial differential equation (PDE) model is proposed to explore the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases. The model includes both incubation age of the exposed hosts and infection age of the infectious hosts which describe incubation-age dependent removal rates in the latent period and the variable infectiousness in the infectious period, respectively. The reproductive number R0 is derived. By using the method of Lyapunov function, the global dynamics of the PDE model is further established, and the results show that the basic reproduction number R0 determines the transmission dynamics of vector-borne diseases: the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 ≤ 1, and the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R0 > 1. The results suggest that an effective strategy to contain vector-borne diseases is decreasing the basic reproduction number R0 below one.

Dengue Fever in Burkina Faso, 2016

We report 1,327 probable cases of dengue in Burkina Faso in 2016. Of 35 serum samples tested by a trioplex test, 19 were confirmed dengue virus (DENV)‒positive: 11 DENV-2, 6 DENV-3, 2 nontypeable, and 1 DENV-2/DENV-3 co-infection. Molecular testing should be conducted to correctly identify causative agents in this complex infectious disease landscape.

Molecular characterization and phylogenetic analysis of a dengue virus serotype 3 isolated from a Chinese traveler returned from Laos

BACKGROUND

Dengue virus (DENV) infection caused by international visitors has become a public health concern in China. Although sporadic imported cases of DENV have been documented in Yunnan, China since 2000, a complete genome sequence of dengue virus serotype 3 (DENV-3) imported from Laos is still not available. Here, we report the first complete genome sequence and genomic characterization of a DENV-3 strain (YNPE3) isolated from a patient returned from Laos.

METHODS

Viral isolation from the patient's serum was performed using mosquitoes C6/36 cells. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) was used for identification and serotyping of the virus. The complete sequence was determined by Sanger dideoxy sequencing. Homology analysis was implemented by NCBI-BLAST. Multiple sequence alignment was performed using MegAlign module of the Lasergene 7 software package DNASTAR. MFOLD software was used to predict the RNA secondary structure of 5' untranslated region (UTR) and 3' UTR. Phylogenetic analysis, which was based on envelope gene and complete coding sequence, was performed by Maximum-Likelihood method.

RESULTS

RT-PCR analysis confirmed that the virus belonged to dengue virus serotype 3, which was named YNPE3 strain. The full-length genome of the YNPE3 strain was 10,627 nucleotides (nts) with an open reading frame (ORF) encoding 3390 amino acids. Strain YNPE3 shared 98.6-98.8% nucleotide identity with the closely related strains isolated in India (JQ922556, KU216209, KU216208). We observed the deletion of about 40 nts in the 5' UTR and 3' UTR of strain YNPE3, and 11 nts (ACGCAGGAAGT) insertion that was present in the 3' UTR of YNPE3. Compared with prototype strain H87, abundant amino acid substitutions in the YNPE3 strain were observed. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the YNPE3 strain belonged to genotype III of DENV-3, and that it might be closely related with genotype III strains isolated in Laos and India.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of the complete genome sequence and molecular characterization of a DENV-3 isolate imported from Laos. The presented results can further promote disease surveillance, and epidemiological and evolutionary studies of the DENV-3 in Yunnan province of China.

Combining Wolbachia-induced sterility and virus protection to fight Aedes albopictus-borne viruses

Among the strategies targeting vector control, the exploitation of the endosymbiont Wolbachia to produce sterile males and/or invasive females with reduced vector competence seems to be promising. A new Aedes albopictus transinfection (ARwP-M) was generated by introducing wMel Wolbachia in the ARwP line which had been established previously by replacing wAlbA and wAlbB Wolbachia with the wPip strain. Various infection and fitness parameters were studied by comparing ARwP-M, ARwP and wild-type (SANG population) Ae. albopictus sharing the same genetic background. Moreover, the vector competence of ARwP-M related to chikungunya, dengue and zika viruses was evaluated in comparison with ARwP. ARwP-M showed a 100% rate of maternal inheritance of wMel and wPip Wolbachia. Survival, female fecundity and egg fertility did not show to differ between the three Ae. albopictus lines. Crosses between ARwP-M males and SANG females were fully unfertile regardless of male age while egg hatch in reverse crosses increased from 0 to about 17% with SANG males aging from 3 to 17 days. When competing with SANG males for SANG females, ARwP-M males induced a level of sterility significantly higher than that expected for an equal mating competitiveness (mean Fried index of 1.71 instead of 1). The overall Wolbachia density in ARwP-M females was about 15 fold higher than in ARwP, mostly due to the wMel infection. This feature corresponded to a strongly reduced vector competence for chikungunya and dengue viruses (in both cases, 5 and 0% rates of transmission at 14 and 21 days post infection) with respect to ARwP females. Results regarding Zika virus did not highlight significant differences between ARwP-M and ARwP. However, none of the tested ARwP-M females was capable at transmitting ZIKV. These findings are expected to promote the exploitation of Wolbachia to suppress the wild-type Ae. albopictus populations.

Comparing the effectiveness of different strains of Wolbachia for controlling chikungunya, dengue fever, and zika

Once Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes that spread Chikungunya virus, dengue virus, and Zika virus are infected with Wolbachia, they have reduced egg laying rates, reduced transmission abilities, and shorter lifespans. Since most infected mosquitoes are only infectious in the last few days of their lives, shortening a mosquito's lifespan by a day or two can greatly reduce their abilities to spread mosquito-borne viral diseases, such as Chikungunya, dengue fever, and Zika. We developed a mathematical model to compare the effectiveness of the wMel and wAlbB strains of Wolbachia for controlling the spread of these viruses. The differences among the diseases, mosquitoes, and Wolbachia strains are captured by the model parameters for the mosquito-human transmission cycle. Moreover, the model accounts for the behavior changes of infectious population created by differences in the malaise caused by these viruses. We derived the effective and basic reproduction numbers for the model that are used to estimate the number of secondary infections from the infectious populations. In the same density of Wolbachia-free Aedes aegypti or Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, we observed that wMel and wAlbB strains of Wolbachia can reduce the transmission rates of these diseases effectively.

Epidemiological significance of dengue virus genetic variation in mosquito infection dynamics

The kinetics of arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) transmission by their vectors have long been recognized as a powerful determinant of arbovirus epidemiology. The time interval between virus acquisition and transmission by the vector, termed extrinsic incubation period (EIP), combines with vector mortality rate and vector competence to determine the proportion of infected vectors that eventually become infectious. However, the dynamic nature of this process, and the amount of natural variation in transmission kinetics among arbovirus strains, are poorly documented empirically and are rarely considered in epidemiological models. Here, we combine newly generated empirical measurements in vivo and outbreak simulations in silico to assess the epidemiological significance of genetic variation in dengue virus (DENV) transmission kinetics by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We found significant variation in the dynamics of systemic mosquito infection, a proxy for EIP, among eight field-derived DENV isolates representing the worldwide diversity of recently circulating type 1 strains. Using a stochastic agent-based model to compute time-dependent individual transmission probabilities, we predict that the observed variation in systemic mosquito infection kinetics may drive significant differences in the probability of dengue outbreak and the number of human infections. Our results demonstrate that infection dynamics in mosquitoes vary among wild-type DENV isolates and that this variation potentially affects the risk and magnitude of dengue outbreaks. Our quantitative assessment of DENV genetic variation in transmission kinetics contributes to improve our understanding of heterogeneities in arbovirus epidemiological dynamics.

Nonlinear and delayed impacts of climate on dengue risk in Barbados: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

Over the last 5 years (2013-2017), the Caribbean region has faced an unprecedented crisis of co-occurring epidemics of febrile illness due to arboviruses transmitted by the Aedes sp. mosquito (dengue, chikungunya, and Zika). Since 2013, the Caribbean island of Barbados has experienced 3 dengue outbreaks, 1 chikungunya outbreak, and 1 Zika fever outbreak. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate variability influences arbovirus transmission and vector population dynamics in the region, indicating the potential to develop public health interventions using climate information. The aim of this study is to quantify the nonlinear and delayed effects of climate indicators, such as drought and extreme rainfall, on dengue risk in Barbados from 1999 to 2016.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs) coupled with a hierarchal mixed-model framework were used to understand the exposure-lag-response association between dengue relative risk and key climate indicators, including the standardised precipitation index (SPI) and minimum temperature (Tmin). The model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework to produce probabilistic predictions of exceeding an island-specific outbreak threshold. The ability of the model to successfully detect outbreaks was assessed and compared to a baseline model, representative of standard dengue surveillance practice. Drought conditions were found to positively influence dengue relative risk at long lead times of up to 5 months, while excess rainfall increased the risk at shorter lead times between 1 and 2 months. The SPI averaged over a 6-month period (SPI-6), designed to monitor drought and extreme rainfall, better explained variations in dengue risk than monthly precipitation data measured in millimetres. Tmin was found to be a better predictor than mean and maximum temperature. Furthermore, including bidimensional exposure-lag-response functions of these indicators-rather than linear effects for individual lags-more appropriately described the climate-disease associations than traditional modelling approaches. In prediction mode, the model was successfully able to distinguish outbreaks from nonoutbreaks for most years, with an overall proportion of correct predictions (hits and correct rejections) of 86% (81%:91%) compared with 64% (58%:71%) for the baseline model. The ability of the model to predict dengue outbreaks in recent years was complicated by the lack of data on the emergence of new arboviruses, including chikungunya and Zika.

CONCLUSION

We present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart decision-making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modelling approach could be extended to model the risk of dengue and other arboviruses in the Caribbean region.

Potential effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics in Korea

Dengue fever is a major international public health concern, with more than 55% of the world population at risk of infection. Recent climate changes related to global warming have increased the potential risk of domestic outbreaks of dengue in Korea. In this study, we develop a two-strain dengue model associated with climate-dependent parameters based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration. We assess the potential risks of dengue outbreaks by means of the vector capacity and intensity under various RCP scenarios. A sensitivity analysis of the temperature-dependent parameters is performed to explore the effects of climate change on dengue transmission dynamics. Our results demonstrate that a higher temperature significantly enhances the potential threat of domestic dengue outbreaks in Korea. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of countermeasures on the cumulative incidence of humans and vectors. The current main control measures (comprising only travel restrictions) for infected humans in Korea are not as effective as combined control measures (travel restrictions and vector control), dramatically reducing the possibilities of dengue outbreaks.

A high-risk Zika and dengue transmission hub: virus detections in mosquitoes at a Brazilian university campus

BACKGROUND

Zika virus (ZIKV) and dengue virus (DENV) are mosquito-borne flaviviruses prevalent throughout tropical regions. Currently, management of ZIKV and DENV centers on control of the primary vector Aedes aegypti. This vector is highly anthropophilic and is therefore prevalent throughout densely urbanised landscapes. A new passive trap for gravid Ae. aegypti (Gravid Aedes Trap - GAT) was developed for mosquito surveillance. Here the different killing agents and the level of transmission of arboviruses that may occur in mosquitoes sampled by GATs are assessed for the first time.

METHODS

Gravid Aedes traps (GATs) were deployed at the Federal University of Minas Gerais campus, in Belo Horizonte, Brazil to sample Ae. aegypti. Three different killing agents were evaluated within the GATs: sticky cards, long-lasting insecticide-impregnated nets (LLINs) and canola oil. Traps were monitored weekly for 14 weeks then mosquito specimens were identified to the species level and Ae. aegypti catches were pooled and submitted to qRT-PCR assays for to DENV and ZIKV virus detection, followed by Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of the ZIKV. Additionally, comparisons of means were performed on transformed weekly catch data (P = 0.05, t-tests) with the stats package of the R statistical software.

RESULTS

In total, 1506 female Ae. aegypti were captured using GATs, with traps using sticky cards catching more mosquito than those using either LLINs or canola oil. Both ZIKV and DENV were detected in Ae. aegypti females captured over several weeks suggesting that this highly populated university campus may have served as a significant transmission hub. The infection rate for ZIKV was present in seven (8.5%) pools from four weeks while DENV was detected in four (4.9%) pools from four weeks. Phylogenetic analysis of ZIKV classified the strain as Asian genotype.

CONCLUSIONS

The Federal University of Minas Gerais and similar organizations must strongly consider monitoring Ae. aegypti populations and reinforcing personal protection of staff and students during seasons of high mosquito activity.

Estimating the actual importation risk of dengue virus infection among Japanese travelers

Background

Frequent international travel facilitates the global spread of dengue fever. Japan has experienced an increasing number of imported case notifications of dengue virus (DENV) infection, mostly arising from Japanese travelers visiting South and Southeast Asian countries. This has led an autochthonous dengue outbreak in 2014 in Japan. The present study aimed to infer the risk of DENV infection among Japanese travelers to Asian countries, thereby obtaining an actual estimate of the number of DENV infections among travelers.

Methodology/Principal findings

For eight destination countries (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, India, Malaysia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, and Singapore), we collected age-dependent seroepidemiological data. We also retrieved the number of imported cases, who were notified to the Japanese government, as well as the total number of travelers to each destination. Using a mathematical model, we estimated the force of infection in each destination country with seroepidemiological data while jointly inferring the reporting coverage of DENV infections among Japanese travelers from datasets of imported cases and travelers. Assuming that travelers had a risk of infection that was identical to that of the local population during travel, the reporting coverage of dengue appeared to range from 0.6% to 4.3%. The risk of infection per journey ranged from 0.02% to 0.44%.

Conclusions/Significance

We found that the actual number of imported cases of DENV infection among Japanese travelers could be more than 20 times the notified number of imported cases. This finding may be attributed to the substantial proportion of asymptomatic and under-ascertained infections.

A transcriptomic survey of the impact of environmental stress on response to dengue virus in the mosquito, Aedes aegypti

Populations of Aedes aegypti naturally exhibit variable susceptibility to dengue viruses. This natural variation can be impacted by nutritional stress resulting from larval-stage crowding, indicating the influence of environment components on the adult mosquito immune response. In particular, larval crowding was previously shown to reduce the susceptibility of adult females of a Trinidad field isolate of A. aegypti to the dengue serotype 2 (JAM1409) virus. Here, we present the first whole transcriptome study to address the impact of environmental stress on A. aegypti response to dengue virus. We examined expression profiles of adult females resulting from crowded and optimum reared larvae from the same Trinidad isolate at two critical early time points-3 and 18 hours post dengue virus infected blood meal. We exposed specimens to either a dengue or naïve blood meal, and then characterized the response in ten gene co-expression modules based on their transcriptional associations with environmental stress and time. We further analyzed the top 30 hub or master regulatory genes in each of the modules, and validated our results via qRT-PCR. These hub genes reveal which functions are critical to the mechanisms that confer dengue virus refractoriness or susceptibility to stress conditioned A. aegypti, as well as the time points at which they are most important.