Global terrestrial Human Footprint maps for 1993 and 2009

Are debt-for-nature swaps scalable: Which nature, how much debt, and who pays?

With the ongoing sovereign debt and biodiversity crises in many emerging economies, applications of debt-for-nature swaps as a dual solution for sovereign debt and nature conservation have been re-emerging. We analyze how debt-for-nature swaps (DNS) can be scaled to protect biodiversity priority areas and reduce debt burden. We build a dataset for biodiversity conservation and debt restructuring in 67 countries at risk of sovereign debt distress and show that they hold over 22% of global biodiversity priority areas, 82.96% of which are unprotected. Furthermore, we show that for 35 of the 67 countries, using conservative cost estimates, 100% of unprotected biodiversity priority areas could be protected for a fraction of debt; for the remaining countries, applying DNS would allow the protection of 11-13% of currently unprotected biodiversity priority areas. By applying interdisciplinary research combining fundamental biodiversity and economic data and methods merging, the research contributes methodologically and practically to the understanding of debt-for-nature swaps for emerging economies.

More than two-fifths of the protected land in a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China is under intense human pressure

Habitat loss is the main threat to global biodiversity in the Anthropocene. To prevent this, protected areas are the most effective means for safeguarding biodiversity. However, extensive habitat protection under human pressure can undermine its effectiveness. Using the Hengduan Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot in southwest China as an indicator, we assessed the extent and intensity of human pressure to highlight how these pressures have changed over time. We found that most ecoregions had high levels of intact habitat loss relative to areal protection by national nature reserves (NNRs). More than two-fifths of protected land is under intense human pressure, and lower elevation or smaller NNRs were subject to higher pressure. These increases have predominantly occurred in lower elevation NNRs, showing that elevation gradients correlate with increasing pressure. While protected areas are increasingly established, they are experiencing intense human pressure. Our findings provide useful insights for assessing resilience of protected areas and to prioritize areas where future conservation plans and actions should be focused in a changing world.

Possibility of Wild Boar Harm Occurring in Five Provinces of Northwest China

With the implementation of ecological engineering projects and related policies in China, wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations have surged, leading to increasingly serious conflicts with humans. We evaluated their potential habitat changes from the perspective of environmental suitability. To elucidate the suitable habitat characteristics for wild boars, we obtained data from 79 sites in five provinces in northwest China using database retrieval, human-wildlife conflict (HWC) incident questionnaires, and document retrieval. Thus, 10 environmental variables with lower correlation were selected, and potentially suitable distribution areas for wild boars under the current climate scenario were predicted based on the maximum entropy model. These areas were superimposed with different land use types in different periods to explore habitat selection. Precipitation seasonality (26.40%), human footprint index (16.50%), and elevation (11.90%) were the main environmental factors affecting wild boar distribution. The areas with high potential suitability for wild boars were mainly in the southeast and northwest of the region (total area of 2.63 × 105 km2). The land use types in the high-suitability zones are mainly woodland and grassland with high coverage, canopy density, and cultivated land borders. This study provides a reference for the effective prevention of HWC and management of wild boars.

Dissimilarity of vertebrate trophic interactions reveals spatial uniqueness but functional redundancy across Europe

Identifying areas that contain species assemblages not found elsewhere in a region is central to conservation planning.1,2 Species assemblages contain networks of species interactions that underpin species dynamics,3,4 ecosystem processes, and contributions to people.5,6,7 Yet the uniqueness of interaction networks in a regional context has rarely been assessed. Here, we estimated the spatial uniqueness of 10,000 terrestrial vertebrate trophic networks across Europe (1,164 species, 50,408 potential interactions8) based on the amount of similarity between all local networks mapped at a 10 km resolution. Our results revealed more unique networks in the Arctic bioregion, but also in southern Europe and isolated islands. We then contrasted the uniqueness of trophic networks with their vulnerability to human footprint and future climate change and measured their coverage within protected areas. This analysis revealed that unique networks situated in southern Europe were particularly exposed to human footprint and that unique networks in the Arctic might be at risk from future climate change. However, considering interaction networks at the level of trophic groups, rather than species, revealed that the general structure of trophic networks was redundant across the continent, in contrast to species' interactions. We argue that proactive European conservation strategies might gain relevance by turning their eyes toward interaction networks that are both unique and vulnerable.

Canada Source Watershed Polygons (Can-SWaP): A dataset for the protection of Canada's municipal water supply

Over 80% of municipal (i.e., excluding industrial and agricultural) water use in Canada comes from streams, lakes, and reservoirs. These freshwater bodies and their catchments require adequate protection to secure drinking water supply for Canadians. Canada, like most countries, lacks a consolidated national dataset of municipal catchments, arguably due to gaps in data availability. Against this backdrop, we present the Canada Source Watershed Polygons dataset, or Can-SWaP. Can-SWaP was created using point locations of more than 3,300 municipal water licences defining rights to surface water withdrawal. Where possible, the resulting 1,574 catchments were assessed for accuracy in spatial coverage against provincial and local datasets. Each watershed in Can-SWaP has an estimated water volume used for municipal water purposes derived from licencing data, and several variables from RiverATLAS for investigating the integrity of surface drinking water sources in Canada. Furthermore, basing our method on the HydroSHEDS suite of global products offers a robust framework for the production of other national datasets following an established international standard.

A global systematic review of frugivorous animal tracking studies and the estimation of seed dispersal distances

Seed dispersal is one of the most important ecosystem functions globally. It shapes plant populations, enhances forest succession, and has multiple, indirect benefits for humans, yet it is one of the most threatened processes in plant regeneration, worldwide. Seed dispersal distances are determined by the diets, seed retention times and movements of frugivorous animals. Hence, understanding how we can most effectively describe frugivore movement and behaviour with rapidly developing animal tracking technology is key to quantifying seed dispersal. To assess the current use of animal tracking in frugivory studies and to provide a baseline for future studies, we provide a comprehensive review and synthesis on the existing primary literature of global tracking studies that monitor movement of frugivorous animals. Specifically, we identify studies that estimate dispersal distances and how they vary with body mass and environmental traits. We show that over the last two decades there has been a large increase in frugivore tracking studies that determine seed dispersal distances. However, some taxa (e.g. reptiles) and geographic locations (e.g. Africa and Central Asia) are poorly studied. Furthermore, we found that certain morphological and environmental traits can be used to predict seed dispersal distances. We demonstrate that flight ability and increased body mass both significantly increase estimated seed dispersal mean and maximum distances. Our results also suggest that protected areas have a positive effect on mean seed dispersal distances when compared to unprotected areas. We anticipate that this review will act as a reference for future frugivore tracking studies, specifically to target current taxonomic and geographic data gaps, and to further explore how seed dispersal relates to key frugivore and fruit traits.

Human disturbance is the major driver of vegetation changes in the Caatinga dry forest region

Drastic changes in vegetation structure caused by exceeding ecological thresholds have fueled the interest in tropical forest responses to climate and land-use changes. Here, we examine the potential successional trajectories experienced by the largest dry tropical forest region in South America, driven by climate conditions and human disturbance. We built potential distribution models for vertebrate taxa associated with forest or shrub habitats to estimate natural vegetation cover. Distribution patterns were compared to current vegetation across the entire region to identify distinct forest degradation levels. Our results indicate the region has climatic and soil conditions suitable for more forest cover than is currently found, even in some areas with limited precipitation. However, 11.04% of natural cover persists across such an immense region, with only 4.34% consisting of forest cover. Forest degradation is characterized by the dramatic expansion of shrubland (390%), farming, and non-vegetation cover due to changes in land-use, rather than climatic conditions. Although different climate conditions have been the principal drivers for natural forest distribution in the region, the forest seems unable to resist the consequences of land-use changes, particularly in lower precipitation areas. Therefore, land-use change has exceeded the ecological thresholds for the persistence of forests, while climate change may exacerbate vegetation-type transitions.

Avoiding an unjust transition to sustainability: An equity metric for spatial conservation planning

The need for rapid and ambitious conservation and restoration is widely acknowledged, yet concern exists that the widespread reallocation of land to nature would disproportionately affect the world's poor. Conservation and restoration may limit nutrition and livelihood options and thus negatively affect social development objectives. Although much research looks into global-scale scenarios and planning of conservation and restoration, spatial evaluations of these trade-offs in terms of equity remain limited. We fill this gap by identifying areas where conservation or restoration under different future scenarios and prioritization maps expand nature into landscapes that likely support land-dependent communities in their local food security. By contrasting the expansion of nature into areas supporting land-dependent communities vs. places where the food system is supported by regional to global markets, we highlight the need for disaggregated indicators that reflect the diversity of human land-use needs in order to identify more equitable pathways. Conservation prioritizations were found to result in more equitable land-use outcomes than the land-use outcomes of widely used socioeconomic scenarios. Accounting for differentiated social impacts in model-based conservation and restoration planning and global scale scenario assessment can help achieve a more inclusive transition to sustainability as well as reduce barriers to meaningful change.

Prediction of Oncomelania hupensis distribution in association with climate change using machine learning models

BACKGROUND

Oncomelania hupensis is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. Its emergence and recurrence pose a constant challenge to the elimination of schistosomiasis in China. It is important to accurately predict the snail distribution for schistosomiasis prevention and control.

METHODS

Data describing the distribution of O. hupensis in 2016 was obtained from the Yunnan Institute of Endemic Disease Control and Prevention. Eight machine learning algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), generalized boosting model (GBM), neural network (NN), classification and regression trees (CART), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and generalized additive model (GAM), were employed to explore the impacts of climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic variables on the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis. Predictions of the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis were made for various periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585).

RESULTS

The RF model exhibited the best performance (AUC: 0.991, sensitivity: 0.982, specificity: 0.995, kappa: 0.942) and the CART model performed the worst (AUC: 0.884, sensitivity: 0.922, specificity: 0.943, kappa: 0.829). Based on the RF model, the top six important variables were as follows: Bio15 (precipitation seasonality) (33.6%), average annual precipitation (25.2%), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) (21.7%), Bio19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter) (14.5%), population density (13.5%), and night light index (11.1%). The results demonstrated that the overall suitable habitats for O. hupensis were predominantly distributed in the schistosomiasis-endemic areas located in northwestern Yunnan Province under the current climate situation and were predicted to expand north- and westward due to climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that the prediction of the current distribution of O. hupensis corresponded well with the actual records. Furthermore, our study provided compelling evidence that the geographical distribution of snails was projected to expand toward the north and west of Yunnan Province in the coming decades, indicating that the distribution of snails is driven by climate factors. Our findings will be of great significance for formulating effective strategies for snail control.

Global patterns and drivers of lead concentration in inland waters

Water bodies are important carriers for lead (Pb) biogeochemical cycling, which is a key pathway of Pb transport. Although existing studies on Pb loading in inland waters have developed rapidly, a quantitative assessment of the distribution patterns and drivers of Pb concentration in inland waters at the global scale remains unclear. Here, by analyzing 1790 observations collected from 386 independent publications, we assessed the spatial distribution and drivers of Pb concentration in inland waters worldwide. We found that (1) globally, the median of Pb concentration in inland waters was 5.81 μg L-1; (2) among different inland water types, Pb concentration was higher in rivers, and the highest Pb concentration was in industrial land in terms of land use type; (3) Pb concentration in inland waters were positively driven by potential evapotranspiration, elevation and road density; and (4) Pb concentration showed a negative relationship with absolute latitude, decreasing from tropic to boreal regions. Overall, our global assessment of the patterns and drivers of Pb concentration in inland waters contributed to a better understanding of the natural and anthropogenic attributions of Pb in the inland hydrological cycling.

Wherever I may roam-Human activity alters movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) across two continents

Human activity and associated landscape modifications alter the movements of animals with consequences for populations and ecosystems worldwide. Species performing long-distance movements are thought to be particularly sensitive to human impact. Despite the increasing anthropogenic pressure, it remains challenging to understand and predict animals' responses to human activity. Here we address this knowledge gap using 1206 Global Positioning System movement trajectories of 815 individuals from 14 red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 14 elk (Cervus canadensis) populations spanning wide environmental gradients, namely the latitudinal range from the Alps to Scandinavia in Europe, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in North America. We measured individual-level movements relative to the environmental context, or movement expression, using the standardized metric Intensity of Use, reflecting both the directionality and extent of movements. We expected movement expression to be affected by resource (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) predictability and topography, but those factors to be superseded by human impact. Red deer and elk movement expression varied along a continuum, from highly segmented trajectories over relatively small areas (high intensity of use), to directed transitions through restricted corridors (low intensity of use). Human activity (Human Footprint Index, HFI) was the strongest driver of movement expression, with a steep increase in Intensity of Use as HFI increased, but only until a threshold was reached. After exceeding this level of impact, the Intensity of Use remained unchanged. These results indicate the overall sensitivity of Cervus movement expression to human activity and suggest a limitation of plastic responses under high human pressure, despite the species also occurring in human-dominated landscapes. Our work represents the first comparison of metric-based movement expression across widely distributed populations of a deer genus, contributing to the understanding and prediction of animals' responses to human activity.

Human footprints in the Global South accelerate biomass carbon loss in ecologically sensitive regions

Human activities have placed significant pressure on the terrestrial biosphere, leading to ecosystem degradation and carbon losses. However, the full impact of these activities on terrestrial biomass carbon remains unexplored. In this study, we examined changes in global human footprint (HFP) and human-induced aboveground biomass carbon (AGBC) losses from 2000 to 2018. Our findings show an increasing trend in HFP globally, resulting in the conversion of wilderness areas to highly modified regions. These changes have altered global biomes' habitats, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions. We also found accelerated AGBC loss driven by HFP expansion, with a total loss of 19.99 ± 0.196 PgC from 2000 to 2018, especially in tropical regions. Additionally, AGBC is more vulnerable in the Global South than in the Global North. Human activities threaten natural habitats, resulting in increasing AGBC loss even in strictly protected areas. Therefore, scientifically guided planning of future human activities is crucial to protect half of Earth through mitigation and adaptation under future risks of climate change and global urbanization.

Temperature niche composition change inside and outside protected areas under climate warming

Conservation of biodiversity relies heavily on protected areas but their role and effectiveness under a warming climate is still debated. We estimated the climate-driven changes in the temperature niche compositions of bird communities inside and outside protected areas in southern Canada. We hypothesized that communities inside protected areas include a higher proportion of cold-dwelling species than communities outside protected areas. We also hypothesized that communities shift to warm-dwelling species more slowly inside protected areas than outside. To study community changes, we used large-scale and long-term (1997-2019) data from the Breeding Bird Survey of Canada. To describe the temperature niche compositions of bird communities, we calculated the community temperature index (CTI) annually for each community inside and outside protected areas. Generally, warm-dwelling species dominated communities with high CTI values. We modeled temporal changes in CTI as a function of protection status with linear mixed-effect models. We also determined which species contributed most to the temporal changes in CTI with a jackknife approach. As anticipated, CTI was lower inside protected areas than outside. However, contrary to our expectation, CTI increased faster over time inside than outside protected areas and warm-dwelling species contributed most to CTI change inside protected areas. These results highlight the ubiquitous impacts of climate warming. Currently, protected areas can aid cold-dwelling species by providing habitat, but as the climate warms, the communities' temperature compositions inside protected areas quickly begin to resemble those outside protected areas, suggesting that protected areas delay the impacts of climate warming on cold-dwelling species.

A vision for incorporating human mobility in the study of human-wildlife interactions

As human activities increasingly shape land- and seascapes, understanding human-wildlife interactions is imperative for preserving biodiversity. Habitats are impacted not only by static modifications, such as roads, buildings and other infrastructure, but also by the dynamic movement of people and their vehicles occurring over shorter time scales. Although there is increasing realization that both components of human activity substantially affect wildlife, capturing more dynamic processes in ecological studies has proved challenging. Here we propose a conceptual framework for developing a 'dynamic human footprint' that explicitly incorporates human mobility, providing a key link between anthropogenic stressors and ecological impacts across spatiotemporal scales. Specifically, the dynamic human footprint integrates a range of metrics to fully acknowledge the time-varying nature of human activities and to enable scale-appropriate assessments of their impacts on wildlife behaviour, demography and distributions. We review existing terrestrial and marine human-mobility data products and provide a roadmap for how these could be integrated and extended to enable more comprehensive analyses of human impacts on biodiversity in the Anthropocene.

Gaps in mammal conservation in China: An analysis with a framework based on minimum area requirements

Climate change, habitat loss, and human disturbance are major threats to biodiversity. Protecting habitats plays a pivotal role in biodiversity conservation, and there is a global imperative to establish an effective system of protected areas (PAs) to implement habitat conservation and halt biodiversity decline. However, the protected patch size of habitat for a species is just as important for biodiversity conservation as the expansion of areas already under protection. In China, conservation management is often carried out based on administrative divisions. Therefore, here, an analytical conservation management framework was developed based on administrative divisions to assess whether the current network of PAs can effectively meet species' conservation needs using the minimum area requirements (MARs) of species as criteria for medium and large-sized mammals in China. This study found that the MAR of medium and large-sized mammals was larger in the northwest and smaller in the southeast, while taking the Hu line as the dividing line. Precipitation seasonality, elevation, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation are the main environmental factors driving the distribution of a species MAR. Compared with MAR for each species, the maximum protected patch size of habitat is severely undersized in most provinces where those species primarily distribute, and this is particularly true for large carnivores and threatened species. The densely populated provinces of eastern China are particularly affected by this. The present study's framework can identify the provinces needing to expand PAs or implement other effective area-based conservation measures and habitat restoration. This analytical framework is also relevant for biodiversity conservation in different taxa and regions around the globe.

Himalayan Marmot (Marmota himalayana) Redistribution to High Latitudes under Climate Change

Climate warming and human activities impact the expansion and contraction of species distribution. The Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) is a unique mammal and an ecosystem engineer in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). This pest aggravates grassland degradation and is a carrier and transmitter of plagues. Therefore, exploring the future distribution of Himalayan marmots based on climate change and human activities is crucial for ecosystem management, biodiversity conservation, and public health safety. Here, a maximum entropy model was explored to forecast changes in the distribution and centroid migration of the Himalayan marmot in the 2050s and 2070s. The results implied that the human footprint index (72.80%) and altitude (16.40%) were the crucial environmental factors affecting the potential distribution of Himalayan marmots, with moderately covered grassland being the preferred habitat of the Himalayan marmot. Over the next 30-50 years, the area of suitable habitat for the Himalayan marmot will increase slightly and the distribution center will shift towards higher latitudes in the northeastern part of the plateau. These results demonstrate the influence of climate change on Himalayan marmots and provide a theoretical reference for ecological management and plague monitoring.

The influence of climate and population density on Buxus hyrcana potential distribution and habitat connectivity

Changes in environmental factors, human impact, and interactions between them accelerate the extinction of woody species. Therefore, conservation programs are needed to protect endangered taxa. However, the relationship between climate, habitat fragmentation, and anthropogenic activities and their consequences are still not well understood. In this work, we aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change and human population density on the Buxus hyrcana Pojark distribution range, as well as the phenomenon of habitat fragmentation. Based on species occurrence data throughout the Hyrcanian Forests (north of Iran), the MAXENT model was employed to estimate the potential distribution and suitability changes. Morphological-spatial analysis (MSPA) and CIRCUITSCAPE were used to assess habitat fragmentation and its connectivity. According to the main results obtained from future scenarios, the potential range will significantly decrease due to the lack of suitable climatic conditions. Meanwhile, B. hyrcana may not be able to shift in potentially suitable areas because of human influence and geographic barriers. Under RCP scenarios the extent of the core area would be reduced and the edge/core ratio significantly increased. Altogether, we found negative effects of the environmental change and the human population density on the continuity of habitats of B. hyrcana. The results of the presented work may improve our knowledge connected with in situ and ex situ protection strategies.

Human pressures modulate climate-warming-induced changes in size spectra of stream fish communities

Climate warming can negatively affect the body size of ectothermic organisms and, based on known temperature-size rules, tends to benefit small-bodied organisms. Our understanding of the interactive effects of climate warming and other environmental factors on the temporal changes of body size structure is limited. We quantified the annual trends in size spectra of 583 stream fish communities sampled for more than 20 years across France. The results show that climate warming steepened the slope of the community size spectrum in streams with limited impacts from other human pressures. These changes were caused by increasing abundance of small-bodied individuals and decreasing abundance of large-bodied individuals. However, opposite effects of climate warming on the size spectrum slopes were observed in streams facing high levels of other human pressures. This demonstrates that the effects of temperature on body size structure can depend on other human pressures, disrupting the natural patterns of size spectra in wild communities with potentially strong implications for the fluxes of energy and nutrients in ecosystems.

Distribution Patterns and Determinants of Invasive Alien Plants in China

In recent years, invasive alien plants (IAPs) have caused serious ecological disasters and economic losses in China. This study combined three IAP species richness-related indices (species richness of IAPs, first records of IAPs, and the relative species richness of IAPs), as well as indices reflecting distribution and dispersal patterns (average similarity coefficient of IAPs) and invasiveness (average risk score of IAPs), to conduct an integrated regional-invasion risk assessment based on the principal component analysis (PCA) method. Partial least-squares (PLS) regression was conducted to explore the explanatory power of 12 environmental and anthropogenic factors on different invasion indices. The results indicated that coastal provinces and Yunnan had high IAP introduction risk, as well as high synthetic-risk scores. The dispersal of IAPs in mid-latitude provinces should be particularly prevented. For species richness of IAPs, more environmental factors with variable importance for the project (VIP) values higher than 1 were retained in the optimal model, reflecting the importance of environmental filtering on IAPs. Visitors were the most important predictor for first records of IAPs. Compared to species richness (R² = 79.5%), first records were difficult to predict (R² = 60.4%) and were influenced by anthropogenic factors. There was spatial distribution congruence of various families of IAPs. Generally, the correlations of the residuals of species richness were still significant, with 0.421 (p < 0.05) as the lowest Pearson correlation coefficient, which indicated that external factors could not fully explain the spatial distribution congruence. These findings could enrich the relevant research on IAP invasion mechanisms and provide suggestions for regional IAP detection and response.

Human appropriation of net primary production as driver of change in landscape-scale vertebrate richness

Aim

Land use is the most pervasive driver of biodiversity loss. Predicting its impact on species richness (SR) is often based on indicators of habitat loss. However, the degradation of habitats, especially through land-use intensification, also affects species. Here, we evaluate whether an integrative metric of land-use intensity, the human appropriation of net primary production, is correlated with the decline of SR in used landscapes across the globe.

Location

Global.

Time period

Present.

Major taxa studied

Birds, mammals and amphibians.

Methods

Based on species range maps (spatial resolution: 20 km × 20 km) and an area-of-habitat approach, we calibrated a "species-energy model" by correlating the SR of three groups of vertebrates with net primary production and biogeographical covariables in "wilderness" areas (i.e., those where available energy is assumed to be still at pristine levels). We used this model to project the difference between pristine SR and the SR corresponding to the energy remaining in used landscapes (i.e., SR loss expected owing to human energy extraction outside wilderness areas). We validated the projected species loss by comparison with the realized and impending loss reconstructed from habitat conversion and documented by national Red Lists.

Results

Species-energy models largely explained landscape-scale variation of mapped SR in wilderness areas (adjusted R 2-values: 0.79-0.93). Model-based projections of SR loss were lower, on average, than reconstructed and documented ones, but the spatial patterns were correlated significantly, with stronger correlation in mammals (Pearson's r = 0.68) than in amphibians (r = 0.60) and birds (r = 0.57).

Main conclusions

Our results suggest that the human appropriation of net primary production is a useful indicator of heterotrophic species loss in used landscapes, hence we recommend its inclusion in models based on species-area relationships to improve predictions of land-use-driven biodiversity loss.

Human footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases

Predicting how increasing intensity of human-environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint-an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density-an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.

A human-neutral large carnivore? No patterns in the body mass of gray wolves across a gradient of anthropization

The gray wolf (Canis lupus) expanded its distribution in Europe over the last few decades. To better understand the extent to which wolves could re-occupy their historical range, it is important to test if anthropization can affect their fitness-related traits. After having accounted for ecologically relevant confounders, we assessed how anthropization influenced i) the growth of wolves during their first year of age (n = 53), ii) sexual dimorphism between male and female adult wolves (n = 121), in a sample of individuals that had been found dead in Italy between 1999 and 2021. Wolves in anthropized areas have a smaller overall variation in their body mass, during their first year of age. Because they already have slightly higher body weight at 3-5 months, possibly due to the availability of human-derived food sources. The difference in the body weight of adult females and males slightly increases with anthropization. However, this happens because of an increase in the body mass of males only, possibly due to sex-specific differences in dispersal and/or to "dispersal phenotypes". Anthropization in Italy does not seem to have any clear, nor large, effect on the body mass of wolves. As body mass is in turn linked to important processes, like survival and reproduction, our findings indicates that wolves could potentially re-occupy most of their historical range in Europe, as anthropized landscapes do not seem to constrain such of an important life-history trait. Wolf management could therefore be needed across vast spatial scales and in anthropized areas prone to social conflicts.

How do intrinsic and extrinsic causes interact in the extinction vulnerability of South American savanna shrub and tree species?

Although a growing body of literature recognises the importance of rarity for biodiversity conservation, it is unclear how the interaction of different forms of rarity, extrinsic causes of extinction, and protection affect species' vulnerability. Here we addressed the extinction vulnerability of 2203 shrub and tree species of the South American savanna (SAS). For this, species were attributed a form of rarity, a synergistic risk index (SRI), and a protection index (PI). The SRI combines three extrinsic causes of extinction (climate hazard, fire frequency, and human footprint). The PI is the ratio between the number of a species occurrences within protected areas and the total number of occurrences in the SAS. By combining the SRI and PI, we classified common and rare species into five vulnerability classes. Some regions of the SAS show high values of climate hazard, fire frequency, human footprint, and SRI. Each extrinsic cause of extinction is differently distributed across the SAS and shows no or low spatial congruence with the SRI. Many species show a low ratio of occurrences within PAs, which in combination with high SRI results in high vulnerability to extinction. Surprisingly, the number of common species in the higher vulnerability classes is higher than of rare species. Common and rare species in different vulnerability classes occur in somewhat different locations across the SAS and mainly constitute spatially incongruent centres with high species richness. Given our results, we propose that strategies for the effective conservation of SAS species are challenging and must be carefully designed.

Relationships between urban expansion and socioenvironmental indicators across multiple scales of watersheds: a case study among watersheds running through China

Understanding the relationships between urban expansion and social/environmental features is fundamental to managing watershed and urban expansion. However, such relationships remain unclear, especially across multiple scales of watersheds. Here, we quantified the correlation between urban expansion measures and 255 socioenvironmental indicators across three scales of watersheds running through China (20, 103, and 349 watersheds) during 1992-2016 and analyzed their scaling relations. The results showed that the number of indicators showing a significant correlation with the area and speed of urban expansion increased from 132 and 153 to 234 and 237, respectively, from level 1 to level 3 watersheds. Among these indicators, urban expansion was significantly correlated with indicators of climate and anthropogenic impact. From a large scale (level 1 watershed) to a small scale (level 3 watershed), 104 and 84 socioenvironmental indicators shifted from uncorrelated to significantly correlated with urban expansion area and speed. The constraint line analysis further confirmed that some relationships were nonlinear, which suggested that the drivers and impacts of urban expansion have scaling effects. We argue that it is crucial to consider the scaling effects of urban expansion when we formulate urban or watershed management plans.

Priority conservation area of Larix gmelinii under climate change: application of an ensemble modeling

Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Kuzen is a major tree species with high economic and ecological value in the Greater Khingan Mountains coniferous forest of Northeast China. Reconstructing the priority Conservation Area of Larix gmelinii under Climate could provide a scientific basis for its germplasm conservation and management. The present study used ensemble and Marxan model simulations to predict species distribution areas and delineate priority conservation areas for Larix gmelinii in relation to productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics, and climate change impacts. The study revealed that the Greater Khingan Mountains and the Xiaoxing'an Mountains, with an area of approximately 300 974.2 km², were the most suitable for L. gmelinii. The stand productivity of L. gmelinii in the most suitable area was significantly higher than that in the less suitable and marginally suitable areas, but understory plant diversity was not dominant. The increase in temperature under future climate change scenarios will reduce the potential distribution and area under L. gmelinii; the species will migrate to higher latitudes of the Greater Khingan Mountains, while the degree of niche migration will gradually increase. Under the 2090s-SSP585 climate scenario, the most suitable area for L. gmelinii will completely disappear, and the climate model niche will be completely separated. Therefore, the protected area of L. gmelinii was demarcated with a target of the productivity characteristics, understory plant diversity characteristics and climate change sensitive area, and the current key protected area was 8.38 × 10⁴ km². Overall, the study's findings will lay a foundation for the protection and rational development and utilization of cold temperate coniferous forests dominated by L. gmelinii in the northern forested region of the Greater Khingan Mountains.

Recent water-level fluctuations, future trends and their eco-environmental impacts on Lake Qinghai

The water level of Lake Qinghai, the largest lake on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, has increased continuously, at an average speed of 0.21 m per year since 2005, causing a rapid expansion of the lake area. We investigated the hydrological processes of Lake Qinghai and the surrounding watershed that have influenced water level and lake area from 1956 to 2019. Relationships among water level, climate change and human activities were also assessed. Water level and lake area were positively correlated with precipitation and runoff into the lake, and negatively correlated with evaporation. Climate change factors including precipitation and runoff were the primary causes of lake level change, whereas human activities, including variation in a human footprint index, land use, and grassland irrigation, were secondary factors. A time series model forecasted that from 2020 to 2050 water levels will increase further by 2.45 m. Although this increase in water level may have some benefits, such as reduced local desertification, the expansion of lake area will continue to flood low beaches, pasture lands, near shore infrastructure and roads, and impact tourism locations. However, continued water level rise may also have negative ecological effects, such as reduce habitat of seasonal birds and reduced water quality due to erosion and sediment resuspension in shallow nearshore lake areas. Local stakeholders, government authorities, and scientists should give greater attention to anticipated changes in water level, and further ecological studies and infrastructure adaptation measures should be implemented.

Species invasiveness and community invasibility of North American freshwater fish fauna revealed via trait-based analysis

While biological invasions are recognized as a major threat to global biodiversity, determining non-native species' abilities to establish in new areas (species invasiveness) and the vulnerability of those areas to invasions (community invasibility) is challenging. Here, we use trait-based analysis to profile invasive species and quantify the community invasibility for >1,800 North American freshwater fish communities. We show that, in addition to effects attributed to propagule pressure caused by human intervention, species with higher fecundity, longer lifespan and larger size tend to be more invasive. Community invasibility peaks when the functional distance among native species was high, leaving unoccupied functional space for the establishment of potential invaders. Our findings illustrate how the functional traits of non-native species determining their invasiveness, and the functional characteristics of the invaded community determining its invasibility, may be identified. Considering those two determinants together will enable better predictions of invasions.

An integrative bioinformatics pipeline shows that honeybee-associated microbiomes are driven primarily by pollen composition

The microbiomes associated with bee nests influence colony health through various mechanisms, although it is not yet clear how honeybee congeners differ in microbiome assembly processes, in particular the degrees to which floral visitations and the environment contribute to different aspects of diversity. We used DNA metabarcoding to sequence bacterial 16S rRNA from honey and stored pollen from nests of 4 honeybee species (Apis cerana, A. dorsata, A. florea, and A. laboriosa) sampled throughout Yunnan, China, a global biodiversity hotspot. We developed a computational pipeline integrating multiple databases for quantifying key facets of diversity, including compositional, taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional ones. Further, we assessed candidate drivers of observed microbiome dissimilarity, particularly differences in floral visitations, habitat disturbance, and other key environmental variables. Analyses revealed that microbiome alpha diversity was broadly equivalent across the study sites and between bee species, apart from functional diversity which was very low in nests of the reclusive A. laboriosa. Turnover in microbiome composition across Yunnan was driven predominantly by pollen composition. Human disturbance negatively impacted both compositional and phylogenetic alpha diversity of nest microbiomes, but did not correlate with microbial turnover. We herein make progress in understanding microbiome diversity associated with key pollinators in a biodiversity hotspot, and provide a model for the use of a comprehensive informatics framework in assessing pattern and drivers of diversity, which enables the inclusion of explanatory variables both subtly and fundamentally different and enables elucidation of emergent or unexpected drivers.

Human impact on current environmental state in Chinese lakes

Anthropogenic and natural disturbance to inland aquatic ecosystems displays a notable spatial difference, yet data to measure these differences are scarce. This study encompasses 217 lakes distributed over five lake regions of China and elucidates the environmental factors determining the spatial variability of the water quality and trophic status. A significant correlation between human modification index in surrounding terrestrial systems (HMT) and trophic status of lake ecosystems (TSI) was found, and the regression slope in each region was similar except in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau region. It was further noted that the pattern of environmental factor network (EF network) differed among freshwater and saline lakes. The EF network was complex for freshwater lakes in less human-influenced areas, but intensive man-made influence disrupted most relationships except for those between total nitrogen, total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a, and water turbidity. As for regions including saline lakes, correlations among water salinity and organic forms of carbon and nitrogen were apparent. Our results suggest that HMT and EF network can be useful indicators of the ecological integrity of local lake ecosystems, and integrating spatial information on a large scale provides conservation planners the option for evaluating the potential risk on inland aquatic systems.

Modeling global habitat suitability and environmental predictor of distribution of a Near Threatened avian scavenger at a high spatial resolution

Vultures are among the most vulnerable birds in the world. The bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) is among the threatened species of vultures and listed as Near Threatened. The species is widely distributed across the Palearctic, Afrotropical, and Indomalayan regions. The species faces several threats such as poisoning, direct persecution, habitat degradation, and collisions with powerlines and wind power farms. Thus, knowing the global habitat suitability of the species and environmental predictors of the species distribution can facilitate the species conservation. In this study, we applied a maximum entropy approach, 10,585 distribution records, and 10 environmental variables to model the bearded vulture's global habitat suitability at high spatial resolution [30-arc-second (1 km)]. We also estimated protected area coverage for the species' suitable habitats. We identified 8,117,231 km2 of suitable habitat for the species across its global range in Europe, Asia, and Africa. The results showed that topographic diversity is the most important predictor of the species distribution across its distribution range. Results of estimating the area of suitable habitats of the bearded vulture within protected areas revealed that only 16.26% of the species' suitable habitats are protected. The areas that were identified to have the highest suitability for the species have high priority for the conservation of this iconic species thus these areas should be included in the network of protected areas.

Drivers of compositional turnover of narrow-ranged versus widespread naturalised woody plants in South Africa

Introduction

Alien trees and shrubs have become increasingly common invaders globally and have caused major negative impacts to ecosystems and society. Non-native woody plant species make up the majority of legislated invasive alien taxa in South Africa and contribute substantially to recorded negative impacts. It is of management interest to elucidate the macroecological processes that mediate the assembly of alien taxa, as this is expected to be associated with anthropogenic factors (e.g., human activity, introduction events, pathways of propagule dispersal mediated by humans) and bioclimatic factors (such as diurnal temperature range and precipitation gradients). These analyses require large species-occurrence datasets with comprehensive sampling across broad environmental conditions. Efforts of citizen scientists produce large numbers of occurrence records in a consistent manner which may be utilised for scientific investigations.

Methods

Research Grade occurrence data on naturalised plants of South Africa were extracted from the citizen scientist platform iNaturalist. Sampling bias was mitigated using statistical modelling of background points estimated from a Target Group of species which identifies well sampled communities. The drivers of assembly for alien plants at different range sizes were identified using multi-site generalised dissimilarity modelling (MS-GDM) of zeta diversity. The predicted compositional similarity between all cells was computed based on the subset of identified well sampled communities and using generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM). From this, alien bioregions were identified using a k-means cluster analysis.

Results and Discussion

Bioclimatic factors significantly influenced community turnover in inland areas with large diurnal temperature ranges, and in areas with high precipitation. Communities separated by large geographical distances had significantly different compositions, indicating little contribution of long-range propagule movement by humans, and the presence of localised introduction hubs within the country which harbour unique species compositions. Analyses also showed a significant contribution of road density to turnover, which may be moderated by the habitat service provided by road verges. The same is true for natural dispersal via rivers in arid areas. The distribution of naturalised tree and shrub species is geographically clustered and forms six alien bioregions that are distinct from the South African biomes defined by native species distributionanalysis.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activity on ranges of vertebrate species endemic to the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau over 40 years

Over the past 40 years, the climate has been changing and human disturbance has increased in the vast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP). These 2 factors are expected to affect the distribution of a large number of endemic vertebrate species. However, quantitative relationships between range shifts and climate change and human disturbance of these species in the QTP have rarely been evaluated. We used occurrence records of 19 terrestrial vertebrate species (birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles) occurring in the QTP from 1980 to 2020 to quantify the effects of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the distribution of these 4 taxonomic groups and estimated species range changes in each species. The trend in distribution changes differed among the taxonomic groups, although, generally, ranges shifted to central QTP. Climate change contributed more to range variation than human disturbance (the sum of the 4 climatic variables contributed more than the sum of the 4 human disturbance variables for all 4 taxonomic groups). Suitable geographic range increased for most mammals, amphibians, and reptiles (+27.6%, +18.4%, and +27.8% on average, respectively), whereas for birds range decreased on average by 0.9%. Quantitative evidence for climate change and human disturbance associations with range changes for endemic vertebrate species in the QTP can provide useful insights into biodiversity conservation under changing environments.

Riparian areas as a conservation priority under climate change

Identifying climatic refugia is important for long-term conservation planning under climate change. Riparian areas have the potential to provide climatic refugia for wildlife, but literature remains limited, especially for plants. This study was conducted with the purpose of identifying climatic refugia of plant biodiversity in the portion of the Mekong River Basin located in Xishuangbanna, China. We first predicted the current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential distribution of 50 threatened woody species in Xishuangbanna by using an ensemble of small models, then stacked the predictions for individual species to derive spatial biodiversity patterns within each 10 × 10 km grid cell. We then identified the top 17 % of the areas for spatial biodiversity patterns as biodiversity hotspots, with climatic refugia defined as areas that remained as biodiversity hotspots over time. Stepwise regression and linear correlation were applied to analyze the environmental correlations with spatial biodiversity patterns and the relationships between climatic refugia and river distribution, respectively. Our results showed potential upward and northward shifts in threatened woody species, with range contractions and expansions predicted. The spatial biodiversity patterns shift from southeast to northwest, and were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and elevation heterogeneity. Climatic refugia under climate change were related closely to river distribution in Xishuangbanna, with riparian areas identified that could provide climatic refugia. These refugial zones are recommended as priority conservation areas for mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Our study confirmed that riparian areas could act as climatic refugia for plants and emphasizes the conservation prioritization of riparian areas within river basins for protecting biodiversity under climate change.

Biologging as an important tool to uncover behaviors of cryptic species: an analysis of giant armadillos (Priodontes maximus)

Advances in biologging have increased the understanding of how animals interact with their environment, especially for cryptic species. For example, giant armadillos (Priodontes maximus) are the largest extant species of armadillo but are rarely encountered due to their fossorial and nocturnal behavior. Through the analysis of speed, turning angles, and accelerometer activity counts, we estimated behavioral states, characterized activity budgets, and investigated the state-habitat associations exhibited by individuals monitored with GPS telemetry in the Brazilian Pantanal from 2019 to 2020. This methodology is proposed as a useful framework for the identification of priority habitat. Using the non-parametric Bayesian mixture model for movement (M3), we estimated four latent behavioral states that were named 'vigilance-excavation', 'local search', 'exploratory', and 'transit'. These states appeared to correspond with behavior near burrows or termite mounds, foraging, ranging, and rapid movements, respectively. The first and last hours of activity presented relatively high proportions of the vigilance-excavation state, while most of the activity period was dominated by local search and exploratory states. The vigilance-excavation state occurred more frequently in regions between forest and closed savannas, whereas local search was more likely in high proportions of closed savanna. Exploratory behavior probability increased in areas with high proportions of both forest and closed savanna. Our results establish a baseline for behavioral complexity, activity budgets, and habitat associations in a relatively pristine environment that can be used for future work to investigate anthropogenic impacts on giant armadillo behavior and fitness. The integration of accelerometer and GPS-derived movement data through our mixture model has the potential to become a powerful methodological approach for the conservation of other cryptic species.

A multispecies corridor in a fragmented landscape: Evaluating effectiveness and identifying high-priority target areas

While Misiones, Argentina contains one of the largest remnants of Upper Paraná Atlantic Forest ecoregion, one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, only ~50% of this native forest is protected. Each protected area is at risk of becoming an island of native forest surrounded by a matrix of altered habitats due to ongoing land conversion. In an effort to maximize long-term connectivity between existing protected areas, DeMatteo [1] used a multifaceted cost analysis to determine the optimal location for the region's first multispecies corridor using noninvasive data on jaguars (Panthera onca), pumas (Puma concolor), ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), southern tiger cats (Leopardus guttulus), and bush dogs (Speothos venaticus). This work builds on this framework by integrating new field data that broadens the scope of species-specific data across the region's heterogeneous landscape, which varies in vegetation, disturbance, human proximity, and protective status. In addition, two different land use layers are compared across the distributions of the five carnivores, the overlap in their independent distributions, and their relationship to the multispecies corridor. Interpretation of these land use data to species-specific habitat suitability goes beyond DeMatteo [1], with a subdivision of suitability into marginal and optimal areas. This refined scale allows a reanalysis of key areas in the multispecies corridor, where connectivity was previously defined as at highly-at-risk, allowing for a more directed development of management strategies. These analyses and their interpretation extend beyond northern-central Misiones, as the threats are not unique to this region. The need to develop management strategies that balance human-wildlife needs will continue to grow as humans expand their footprint. The techniques applied in this analysis provide a way to identify key areas that require specific management strategies, either through restoration, protection, or a combination of both.

Phylogeography of the Atlantic Blue Crab Callinectes sapidus (Brachyura: Portunidae) in the Americas versus the Mediterranean Sea: Determining Origins and Genetic Connectivity of a Large-Scale Invasion

The American blue crab Callinectes sapidus is a particularly successful invader in estuarine ecosystems worldwide. Despite increasing awareness of its potential harm, the invasion history and underlying genetic diversity of this species within the Mediterranean Sea remain unknown. This study constitutes the first large-scale approach to study phylogeographic patterns of C. sapidus in Europe, facilitated by the first comparison of all currently available COI sequence data. For this investigation, 71 individuals of C. sapidus were newly analyzed and the entire COI gene was sequenced and used for a comparative phylogeographic analyses. For the first time, two separately used adjacent regions of this gene were combined in a single dataset. This allowed emphasizing the prevalence of three geographically defined lineages within the native range: (1) eastern North America, including the Gulf of Mexico, (2) the Caribbean, and (3) Brazil. New data from the Mediterranean reveal that non-native populations of C. sapidus are characterized by a conspicuously low genetic diversity (except for Turkey, where stocking took place), and that there is surprisingly low connectivity among established populations. The occurrence of strong genetic bottlenecks suggests few founder individuals. This confirms that, even under a scenario of restricted large-scale gene flow, a very limited number of invasive individuals is sufficient for a massive impact.

Conservation of the Goitered gazelle (Gazella subgutturosa) under climate changes in Iraq

Climate is a vital factor that shapes habitat suitability for many species across space and time. Gazella subgutturosa (Goitered gazelle) is a globally vulnerable mammal already extinct in some areas of Armenia and Georgia and is highly threatened in other areas of its distribution. In this study, new data were gathered for 33 locations in north-eastern Iraq, and then together with literature data, Species Distribution Models (SDMs) were used to explore the geographical distribution of the gazelle under current and future climate change scenarios. We studied the relationship between seven climate variables and 43 occurrence records to predict habitat suitability of the gazelle under the current climate, and also under four future climate scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 for both 2050 and 2080). Annual precipitation and isothermality had the most influence on the distribution of Gazella subgutturosa. The most suitable habitat in both the current and future scenarios was located in north-eastern Iraq close to the Iranian border near the Zagros Mountains. There was no difference in habitat suitability for the gazelle inside Iraqi Protected Areas (PAs) compared to outside the PAs. Using the occurrence records and IUCN Red List national assessments, we found Iraqi Goitered gazelle populations to be classified as Endangered (EN). Our results suggest urgent conservation planning is needed to save this species, including the establishment of new PAs. These results contribute new baseline information, which was currently missing Goitered gazelle in about Iraq, to the IUCN SSC Antelope Specialist Group, which will hopefully aid with future global assessments and conservation.

Migratory Movements and Home Ranges of Geographically Distinct Wintering Populations of a Soaring Bird

Migratory soaring birds exhibit spatiotemporal variation in their circannual movements. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain how different winter environments affect the circannual movement patterns of migratory soaring birds. Here, we investigated annual movement strategies of American white pelicans Pelecanus erythrorhynchos (hereafter, pelican) from two geographically distinct wintering grounds in the Southern and Northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM). We hypothesized that hourly movement distance and home range size of a soaring bird would differ between different geographic regions because of different thermals and wind conditions and resource availability. We calculated average and maximum hourly movement distances and seasonal home ranges of GPS-tracking pelicans. We then evaluated the effects of hour of the day, seasons, two wintering regions in the Southern and Northern GOM, human footprint index, and relative pelican abundance from Christmas Bird Count data on pelican hourly movement distances and seasonal home ranges using linear mixed models and generalized linear mixed models. American white pelicans moved at greatest hourly distance near 1200 h at breeding grounds and during spring and autumn migrations. Both wintering populations in the Northern and Southern GOM exhibited similar hourly movement distances and seasonal home ranges at the shared breeding grounds and during spring and autumn migrations. However, pelicans wintering in the Southern GOM showed shorter hourly movement distances and smaller seasonal home ranges than those in the Northern GOM. Hourly movement distances and home ranges of pelicans increased with increasing human footprint index. Winter hourly movements and home ranges of pelicans differed between the Northern and Southern GOM; however, the winter difference in pelican movements did not carry over to the shared breeding grounds during summers. Therefore, exogenous factors may be the primary drivers to shape the flying patterns of migratory soaring birds.

Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities

Madagascar’s unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar’s terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

Ecological integrity and conservation challenges in a rapidly changing Arctic: A call for new approaches in large intact landscapes

Intactness is a commonly used measure of ecological integrity, especially when evaluating conservation status at the landscape scale. We argue that in the large and relatively unfragmented landscapes of the Arctic and sub-Arctic, intactness provides only partial insight for managers charged with maintaining ecological integrity. A recent landscape assessment suggests that 95% of Alaska shows no measured direct or indirect impacts of human development on the landscape. However, the current exceptionally high levels of intactness in Alaska, and throughout the Arctic and sub-Arctic, do not adequately reflect impacts to the region's ecological integrity caused by indirect stressors, such as a rapidly changing climate and the subsequent loss of the cryosphere. Thus, it can be difficult to measure, and manage, some of the conservation challenges presented by the ecological context of these systems. The dominant drivers of change, and their associated ecological and socioeconomic impacts, vary as systems decline in ecological integrity from very high to high, and to intermediate levels, but this is not well understood in the literature. Arctic and sub-Arctic systems, as well as other large intact areas, provide unique opportunities for conservation planning, but require tools and approaches appropriate to unfragmented landscapes undergoing rapid climate-driven ecological transformation. We conclude with possible directions for developing more appropriate metrics for measuring ecological integrity in these systems.

Global and regional ecological boundaries explain abrupt spatial discontinuities in avian frugivory interactions

Species interactions can propagate disturbances across space via direct and indirect effects, potentially connecting species at a global scale. However, ecological and biogeographic boundaries may mitigate this spread by demarcating the limits of ecological networks. We tested whether large-scale ecological boundaries (ecoregions and biomes) and human disturbance gradients increase dissimilarity among plant-frugivore networks, while accounting for background spatial and elevational gradients and differences in network sampling. We assessed network dissimilarity patterns over a broad spatial scale, using 196 quantitative avian frugivory networks (encompassing 1496 plant and 1004 bird species) distributed across 67 ecoregions, 11 biomes, and 6 continents. We show that dissimilarities in species and interaction composition, but not network structure, are greater across ecoregion and biome boundaries and along different levels of human disturbance. Our findings indicate that biogeographic boundaries delineate the world's biodiversity of interactions and likely contribute to mitigating the propagation of disturbances at large spatial scales.

Identifying ecosystem service value and potential loss of wilderness areas in China to support post-2020 global biodiversity conservation

Preserving wilderness areas is one of the key goals in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework(GBF). However, far too little attention has been paid to identifying wilderness conservation priorities on the national scale. In this study, we developed a methodological framework to evaluate the ecosystem service values, potential loss and conservation priorities of wilderness areas in China, providing guidance for wilderness conservation. First, we assessed the conservation value of wilderness areas and found that wilderness areas provided more ecosystem services than non-wilderness areas per unit area in most ecoregions. Then we identified threatened wilderness areas under multiple scenarios due to land use and land cover change. We found that 5.82 % of the existing wilderness areas were projected to be lost by 2100. Finally, wilderness conservation priorities were identified considering both conservation values and potential loss, and 11.24 % of existing wilderness areas were highlighted as conservation priorities. This methodological framework could be applied to other countries to support post-2020 global biodiversity conservation.

Environmental and human factors drive the subtropical marine forests of Gongolaria abies-marina to extinction

Large brown macroalgae are foundational threatened species in coastal ecosystems from the subtropical northeastern Atlantic, where they have exhibited a drastic decline in recent years. This study describes the potential habitat of Gongolaria abies-marina, its current distribution and conservation status, and the major drivers of population decline. The results show a strong reduction of more than 97% of G. abies-marina populations in the last thirty years and highlight the effects of drivers vary in terms of spatial heterogeneity. A decrease in the frequency of high waves and high human footprint are the principal factors accounting for the long-term decline in G. abies-marina populations. UV radiation and sea surface temperature have an important correlation only in certain locations. Both the methodology and the large amount of data analyzed in this study provide a valuable tool for the conservation and restoration of threatened macroalgae.

Human disturbances affect the topology of food webs

Networks describe nodes connected by links, with numbers of links per node, the degree, forming a range of distributions including random and scale-free. How network topologies emerge in natural systems still puzzles scientists. Based on previous theoretical simulations, we predict that scale-free food webs are favourably selected by random disturbances while random food webs are selected by targeted disturbances. We assume that lower human pressures are more likely associated with random disturbances, whereas higher pressures are associated with targeted ones. We examine these predictions using 351 empirical food webs, generally confirming our predictions. Should the topology of food webs respond to changes in the magnitude of disturbances in a predictable fashion, consistently across ecosystems and scales of organisation, it would provide a baseline expectation to understand and predict the consequences of human pressures on ecosystem dynamics.