Temporal dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 mutation accumulation within and across infected hosts

Competition for dominance within replicating quasispecies during prolonged SARS-CoV-2 infection in an immunocompromised host

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern (VOCs) emerge for their capability to better adapt to the human host aimed and enhance human-to-human transmission. Mutations in spike largely contributed to adaptation. Viral persistence is a prerequisite for intra-host virus evolution, and this likely occurred in immunocompromised patients who allow intra-host long-term viral replication. The underlying mechanism leading to the emergence of variants during viral persistence in the immunocompromised host is still unknown. Here, we show the existence of an ensemble of minor mutants in the early biological samples obtained from an immunocompromised patient and their dynamic interplay with the master mutant during a persistent and productive long-term infection. In particular, after 222 days of active viral replication, the original master mutant, named MB610, was replaced by a minor quasispecies (MB61222) expressing two critical mutations in spike, namely Q493K and N501T. Isolation of the two viruses allowed us to show that MB61222 entry into target cells occurred mainly by the fusion at the plasma membrane (PM), whereas endocytosis characterized the entry mechanism used by MB610. Interestingly, coinfection of two human cell lines of different origin with the SARS-CoV-2 isolates highlighted the early and dramatic predominance of MB61222 over MB610 replication. This finding may be explained by a faster replicative activity of MB61222 as compared to MB610 as well as by the capability of MB61222 to induce peculiar viral RNA-sensing mechanisms leading to an increased production of interferons (IFNs) and, in particular, of IFN-induced transmembrane protein 1 (IFITM1) and IFITM2. Indeed, it has been recently shown that IFITM2 is able to restrict SARS-CoV-2 entry occurring by endocytosis. In this regard, MB61222 may escape the antiviral activity of IFITMs by using the PM fusion pathway for entry into the target cell, whereas MB610 cannot escape this host antiviral response during MB61222 coinfection, since it has endocytosis as the main pathway of entry. Altogether, our data support the evidence of quasispecies fighting for host dominance by taking benefit from the cell machinery to restrict the productive infection of competitors in the viral ensemble. This finding may explain, at least in part, the extraordinary rapid worldwide turnover of VOCs that use the PM fusion pathway to enter into target cells over the original pandemic strain.

SARS-CoV-2 Within-Host and in vitro Genomic Variability and Sub-Genomic RNA Levels Indicate Differences in Viral Expression Between Clinical Cohorts and in vitro Culture

Background

Low frequency intrahost single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been increasingly recognised as predictive indicators of positive selection. Particularly as growing numbers of SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest (VOI) and concern (VOC) emerge. However, the dynamics of subgenomic RNA (sgRNA) expression and its impact on genomic diversity and infection outcome remain poorly understood. This study aims to investigate and quantify iSNVs and sgRNA expression in single and longitudinally sampled cohorts over the course of mild and severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, benchmarked against an in vitro infection model.

Methods

Two clinical cohorts of SARS-CoV-2 positive cases in New South Wales, Australia collected between March 2020 and August 2021 were sequenced. Longitudinal samples from cases hospitalised due to SARS-CoV-2 infection (severe) (n = 16) were analysed and compared with cases that presented with SARS-CoV-2 symptoms but were not hospitalised (mild) (n = 23). SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity profiles were also examined from daily sampling of culture experiments for three SARS-CoV-2 variants (Lineage A, B.1.351, and B.1.617.2) cultured in VeroE6 C1008 cells (n = 33).

Results

Intrahost single nucleotide variants were detected in 83% (19/23) of the mild cohort cases and 100% (16/16) of the severe cohort cases. SNP profiles remained relatively fixed over time, with an average of 1.66 SNPs gained or lost, and an average of 4.2 and 5.9 low frequency variants per patient were detected in severe and mild infection, respectively. sgRNA was detected in 100% (25/25) of the mild genomes and 92% (24/26) of the severe genomes. Total sgRNA expressed across all genes in the mild cohort was significantly higher than that of the severe cohort. Significantly higher expression levels were detected in the spike and the nucleocapsid genes. There was significantly less sgRNA detected in the culture dilutions than the clinical cohorts.

Discussion and Conclusion

The positions and frequencies of iSNVs in the severe and mild infection cohorts were dynamic overtime, highlighting the importance of continual monitoring, particularly during community outbreaks where multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants may co-circulate. sgRNA levels can vary across patients and the overall level of sgRNA reads compared to genomic RNA can be less than 1%. The relative contribution of sgRNA to the severity of illness warrants further investigation given the level of variation between genomes. Further monitoring of sgRNAs will improve the understanding of SARS-CoV-2 evolution and the effectiveness of therapeutic and public health containment measures during the pandemic.

Daily longitudinal sampling of SARS-CoV-2 infection reveals substantial heterogeneity in infectiousness

The dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 replication and shedding in humans remain poorly understood. We captured the dynamics of infectious virus and viral RNA shedding during acute infection through daily longitudinal sampling of 60 individuals for up to 14 days. By fitting mechanistic models, we directly estimated viral expansion and clearance rates and overall infectiousness for each individual. Significant person-to-person variation in infectious virus shedding suggests that individual-level heterogeneity in viral dynamics contributes to 'superspreading'. Viral genome loads often peaked days earlier in saliva than in nasal swabs, indicating strong tissue compartmentalization and suggesting that saliva may serve as a superior sampling site for early detection of infection. Viral loads and clearance kinetics of Alpha (B.1.1.7) and previously circulating non-variant-of-concern viruses were mostly indistinguishable, indicating that the enhanced transmissibility of this variant cannot be explained simply by higher viral loads or delayed clearance. These results provide a high-resolution portrait of SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics and implicate individual-level heterogeneity in infectiousness in superspreading.

Multi-scale modelling reveals that early super-spreader events are a likely contributor to novel variant predominance

The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) has hampered international efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic. VOCs have been characterized to varying degrees by higher transmissibility, worse infection outcomes and evasion of vaccine and infection-induced immunologic memory. VOCs are hypothesized to have originated from animal reservoirs, communities in regions with low surveillance and/or single individuals with poor immunologic control of the virus. Yet, the factors dictating which variants ultimately predominate remain incompletely characterized. Here we present a multi-scale model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics that describes population spread through individuals whose viral loads and numbers of contacts (drawn from an over-dispersed distribution) are both time-varying. This framework allows us to explore how super-spreader events (SSE) (defined as greater than five secondary infections per day) contribute to variant emergence. We find stochasticity remains a powerful determinant of predominance. Variants that predominate are more likely to be associated with higher infectiousness, an SSE early after variant emergence and ongoing decline of the current dominant variant. Additionally, our simulations reveal that most new highly infectious variants that infect one or a few individuals do not achieve permanence in the population. Consequently, interventions that reduce super-spreading may delay or mitigate emergence of VOCs.

Predicting the mutational drivers of future SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

SARS-CoV-2 evolution threatens vaccine- and natural infection-derived immunity as well as the efficacy of therapeutic antibodies. To improve public health preparedness, we sought to predict which existing amino acid mutations in SARS-CoV-2 might contribute to future variants of concern. We tested the predictive value of features comprising epidemiology, evolution, immunology, and neural network-based protein sequence modeling, and identified primary biological drivers of SARS-CoV-2 intra-pandemic evolution. We found evidence that ACE2-mediated transmissibility and resistance to population-level host immunity has waxed and waned as a primary driver of SARS-CoV-2 evolution over time. We retroactively identified with high accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, AUROC=0.92-0.97) mutations that will spread, at up to four months in advance, across different phases of the pandemic. The behavior of the model was consistent with a plausible causal structure wherein epidemiological covariates combine the effects of diverse and shifting drivers of viral fitness. We applied our model to forecast mutations that will spread in the future and characterize how these mutations affect the binding of therapeutic antibodies. These findings demonstrate that it is possible to forecast the driver mutations that could appear in emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. We validate this result against Omicron, showing elevated predictive scores for its component mutations prior to emergence, and rapid score increase across daily forecasts during emergence. This modeling approach may be applied to any rapidly evolving pathogens with sufficiently dense genomic surveillance data, such as influenza, and unknown future pandemic viruses.

Narrow transmission bottlenecks and limited within-host viral diversity during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak on a fishing boat.. [PMID: 35169803 PMCID: PMC8845427 DOI: 10.1101/2022.02.09.479546]

The long-term evolution of viruses is ultimately due to viral mutants that arise within infected individuals and transmit to other individuals. Here we use deep sequencing to investigate the transmission of viral genetic variation among individuals during a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak that infected the vast majority of crew members on a fishing boat. We deep-sequenced nasal swabs to characterize the within-host viral population of infected crew members, using experimental duplicates and strict computational filters to ensure accurate variant calling. We find that within-host viral diversity is low in infected crew members. The mutations that did fix in some crew members during the outbreak are not observed at detectable frequencies in any of the sampled crew members in which they are not fixed, suggesting viral evolution involves occasional fixation of low-frequency mutations during transmission rather than persistent maintenance of within-host viral diversity. Overall, our results show that strong transmission bottlenecks dominate viral evolution even during a superspreading event with a very high attack rate.

True or False: What are the factors that influence COVID-19 diagnosis by RT-qPCR?

Introduction

The Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease has had a catastrophic impact on the world resulting in several deaths. Since World Health Organization declared the pandemic status of the disease, several molecular diagnostic kits have been developed to help the tracking of viruses spread.

Areas Covered

This review aims to describe and evaluate the currently reverse transcriptase-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) diagnosis kit. Several processes used in COVID-19 diagnostic procedures are detailed in further depth to demonstrate optimal practices. Therefore, we debate the main factors that influence the viral detection of SARS-COV-2 and how they can affect the diagnosis of patients.

Expert Opinion

Here is highlighted and discussed several factors that can interfere in the RT-PCR analysis, such as the viral load of the sample, collection site, collection methodology, sample storage, transport, primer, and probe mismatch/dimerization in different brand kits. This is a pioneer study to discuss the factor that could lead to the wrong interpretation of RT-qPCR diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2. This study aimed to help the readers to understand what very likely is behind a bad result of SARS-CoV-2 detection by RT-PCR and what could be done to reach a reliable diagnosis.

Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.

Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.

Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.

Viral infection and transmission in a large, well-traced outbreak caused by the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant has spread rapidly worldwide. To provide data on its virological profile, we here report the first local transmission of Delta in mainland China. All 167 infections could be traced back to the first index case. Daily sequential PCR testing of quarantined individuals indicated that the viral loads of Delta infections, when they first become PCR-positive, were on average ~1000 times greater compared to lineage A/B infections during the first epidemic wave in China in early 2020, suggesting potentially faster viral replication and greater infectiousness of Delta during early infection. The estimated transmission bottleneck size of the Delta variant was generally narrow, with 1-3 virions in 29 donor-recipient transmission pairs. However, the transmission of minor iSNVs resulted in at least 3 of the 34 substitutions that were identified in the outbreak, highlighting the contribution of intra-host variants to population-level viral diversity during rapid spread.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of intra-host variability in SARS-CoV-2 genomes

During the course of the COVID-19 pandemic, large-scale genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 has been useful in tracking its spread and in identifying variants of concern (VOC). Viral and host factors could contribute to variability within a host that can be captured in next-generation sequencing reads as intra-host single nucleotide variations (iSNVs). Analysing 1347 samples collected till June 2020, we recorded 16 410 iSNV sites throughout the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We found ∼42% of the iSNV sites to be reported as SNVs by 30 September 2020 in consensus sequences submitted to GISAID, which increased to ∼80% by 30th June 2021. Following this, analysis of another set of 1774 samples sequenced in India between November 2020 and May 2021 revealed that majority of the Delta (B.1.617.2) and Kappa (B.1.617.1) lineage-defining variations appeared as iSNVs before getting fixed in the population. Besides, mutations in RdRp as well as RNA-editing by APOBEC and ADAR deaminases seem to contribute to the differential prevalence of iSNVs in hosts. We also observe hyper-variability at functionally critical residues in Spike protein that could alter the antigenicity and may contribute to immune escape. Thus, tracking and functional annotation of iSNVs in ongoing genome surveillance programs could be important for early identification of potential variants of concern and actionable interventions.

[The different phases of molecular and antigenic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 viruses during the 20 months following its emergence]

From its emergence in December 2019 and until the end of the fourth pandemic wave in October 2021, SARS-CoV-2 circulation has been associated with significant molecular evolutions of the virus. These were linked to mutations that have led to new virus linages with replication advantages as a result of increased transmission, or partial immune escape in the context of progressively increasing global immunisation. The pandemic context with large scale epidemics massive outbreaks observed in highly populated areas has favoured this emergence of "variants". During the 20 months period, at least three evolutionary phases have been observed, leading to the situation observed in October 2021. For the first time, an unprecedented worldwide surveillance effort has been conducted to monitor the circulation of the emerging virus, with rapid data sharing. This molecular surveillance system has provided an accurate description of the circulating viruses, and their evolution. The implementation of these tools and skills able to provide SARS-CoV-2 molecular epidemiological data has upgraded the global capacity for surveillance worldwide, and may allow us to be better prepared for a future pandemic episode.

On the intrinsic nature of viral pathogenesis: The assumption of a Darwinian paradigm to describe COVID-19 pandemic

Our hypothesis about evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic foresees an inverse relation between infectivity (R0) and lethality (L) of SARS-CoV-2. The above parameters are driven by a continuing mutation process granting the virus a clear survival advantage over virulence. For interpreting this relation we adopted a simple equation, R0 × L ≈ k, by which R0 and L depend upon a constant k, that corresponds to an intrinsic property of the viral species involved. The hypothesis was verified by following changes of the R0 and L terms of the formula in the different variants of SARS-CoV-2 that progressively appeared. A further validation came when the equation was applied to pandemic and epidemic influenza type A viruses, Ebola virus and measles virus. We believe this equation that considers virus biology in Darwinian terms could be extremely useful to better face infectious viral threats and validate virus-host molecular interactions relevant to viral pathogenesis.

OUP accepted manuscript

A detailed understanding of how and when severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission occurs is crucial for designing effective prevention measures. Other than contact tracing, genome sequencing provides information to help infer who infected whom. However, the effectiveness of the genomic approach in this context depends on both (high enough) mutation and (low enough) transmission rates. Today, the level of resolution that we can obtain when describing SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks using just genomic information alone remains unclear. In order to answer this question, we sequenced forty-nine SARS-CoV-2 patient samples from ten local clusters in NW Spain for which partial epidemiological information was available and inferred transmission history using genomic variants. Importantly, we obtained high-quality genomic data, sequencing each sample twice and using unique barcodes to exclude cross-sample contamination. Phylogenetic and cluster analyses showed that consensus genomes were generally sufficient to discriminate among independent transmission clusters. However, levels of intrahost variation were low, which prevented in most cases the unambiguous identification of direct transmission events. After filtering out recurrent variants across clusters, the genomic data were generally compatible with the epidemiological information but did not support specific transmission events over possible alternatives. We estimated the effective transmission bottleneck size to be one to two viral particles for sample pairs whose donor–recipient relationship was likely. Our analyses suggest that intrahost genomic variation in SARS-CoV-2 might be generally limited and that homoplasy and recurrent errors complicate identifying shared intrahost variants. Reliable reconstruction of direct SARS-CoV-2 transmission based solely on genomic data seems hindered by a slow mutation rate, potential convergent events, and technical artifacts. Detailed contact tracing seems essential in most cases to study SARS-CoV-2 transmission at high resolution.

Omicron-B.1.1.529 leads to widespread escape from neutralizing antibody responses

On the 24 th November 2021 the sequence of a new SARS CoV-2 viral isolate spreading rapidly in Southern Africa was announced, containing far more mutations in Spike (S) than previously reported variants. Neutralization titres of Omicron by sera from vaccinees and convalescent subjects infected with early pandemic as well as Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta are substantially reduced or fail to neutralize. Titres against Omicron are boosted by third vaccine doses and are high in cases both vaccinated and infected by Delta. Mutations in Omicron knock out or substantially reduce neutralization by most of a large panel of potent monoclonal antibodies and antibodies under commercial development. Omicron S has structural changes from earlier viruses, combining mutations conferring tight binding to ACE2 to unleash evolution driven by immune escape, leading to a large number of mutations in the ACE2 binding site which rebalance receptor affinity to that of early pandemic viruses.

Analysis of Immune Escape Variants from Antibody-Based Therapeutics against COVID-19: A Systematic Review

The accelerated SARS-CoV-2 evolution under selective pressure by massive deployment of neutralizing antibody-based therapeutics is a concern with potentially severe implications for public health. We review here reports of documented immune escape after treatment with monoclonal antibodies and COVID-19-convalescent plasma (CCP). While the former is mainly associated with specific single amino acid mutations at residues within the receptor-binding domain (e.g., E484K/Q, Q493R, and S494P), a few cases of immune evasion after CCP were associated with recurrent deletions within the N-terminal domain of the spike protein (e.g., ΔHV69-70, ΔLGVY141-144 and ΔAL243-244). The continuous genomic monitoring of non-responders is needed to better understand immune escape frequencies and the fitness of emerging variants.

The evolution of cheating in viruses

The success of many viruses depends upon cooperative interactions between viral genomes. However, whenever cooperation occurs, there is the potential for 'cheats' to exploit that cooperation. We suggest that: (1) the biology of viruses makes viral cooperation particularly susceptible to cheating; (2) cheats are common across a wide range of viruses, including viral entities that are already well studied, such as defective interfering genomes, and satellite viruses. Consequently, the evolutionary theory of cheating could help us understand and manipulate viral dynamics, while viruses also offer new opportunities to study the evolution of cheating.

Controlling long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections can slow viral evolution and reduce the risk of treatment failure

The rapid emergence and expansion of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants threatens our ability to achieve herd immunity for COVID-19. These novel SARS-CoV-2 variants often harbor multiple point mutations, conferring one or more evolutionarily advantageous traits, such as increased transmissibility, immune evasion and longer infection duration. In a number of cases, variant emergence has been linked to long-term infections in individuals who were either immunocompromised or treated with convalescent plasma. In this paper, we used a stochastic evolutionary modeling framework to explore the emergence of fitter variants of SARS-CoV-2 during long-term infections. We found that increased viral load and infection duration favor emergence of such variants. While the overall probability of emergence and subsequent transmission from any given infection is low, on a population level these events occur fairly frequently. Targeting these low-probability stochastic events that lead to the establishment of novel advantageous viral variants might allow us to slow the rate at which they emerge in the patient population, and prevent them from spreading deterministically due to natural selection. Our work thus suggests practical ways to achieve control of long-term SARS-CoV-2 infections, which will be critical for slowing the rate of viral evolution.

Early sample tagging and pooling enables simultaneous SARS-CoV-2 detection and variant sequencing

Most severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) diagnostic tests have relied on RNA extraction followed by reverse transcription quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) assays. Whereas automation improved logistics and different pooling strategies increased testing capacity, highly multiplexed next-generation sequencing (NGS) diagnostics remain a largely untapped resource. NGS tests have the potential to markedly increase throughput while providing crucial SARS-CoV-2 variant information. Current NGS-based detection and genotyping assays for SARS-CoV-2 are costly, mostly due to parallel sample processing through multiple steps. Here, we have established ApharSeq, in which samples are barcoded in the lysis buffer and pooled before reverse transcription. We validated this assay by applying ApharSeq to more than 500 clinical samples from the Clinical Virology Laboratory at Hadassah hospital in a robotic workflow. The assay was linear across five orders of magnitude, and the limit of detection was Ct 33 (~1000 copies/ml, 95% sensitivity) with >99.5% specificity. ApharSeq provided targeted high-confidence genotype information due to unique molecular identifiers incorporated into this method. Because of early pooling, we were able to estimate a 10- to 100-fold reduction in labor, automated liquid handling, and reagent requirements in high-throughput settings compared to current testing methods. The protocol can be tailored to assay other host or pathogen RNA targets simultaneously. These results suggest that ApharSeq can be a promising tool for current and future mass diagnostic challenges.

SARS-CoV-2 Genomic Surveillance Reveals Little Spread From a Large University Campus to the Surrounding Community

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had high incidence rates at institutions of higher education (IHE) in the United States, but the transmission dynamics in these settings are poorly understood. It remains unclear to what extent IHE-associated outbreaks have contributed to transmission in nearby communities.

METHODS

We implemented high-density prospective genomic surveillance to investigate these dynamics at the University of Michigan and the surrounding community during the Fall 2020 semester (August 16-November 24). We sequenced complete severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes from 1659 individuals, including 468 students, representing 20% of cases in students and 25% of total cases in Washtenaw County over the study interval.

RESULTS

Phylogenetic analysis identified >200 introductions into the student population, most of which were not related to other student cases. There were 2 prolonged student transmission clusters, of 115 and 73 individuals, that spanned multiple on-campus residences. Remarkably, <5% of nonstudent genomes were descended from student clusters, and viral descendants of student cases were rare during a subsequent wave of infections in the community.

CONCLUSIONS

The largest outbreaks among students at the University of Michigan did not significantly contribute to the rise in community cases in Fall 2020. These results provide valuable insights into SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics at the regional level.

Neutralising antibody escape of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein: Risk assessment for antibody-based Covid-19 therapeutics and vaccines

The Spike protein is the target of both antibody-based therapeutics (convalescent plasma, polyclonal serum, monoclonal antibodies) and vaccines. Mutations in Spike could affect efficacy of those treatments. Hence, monitoring of mutations is necessary to forecast and readapt the inventory of therapeutics. Different phylogenetic nomenclatures have been used for the currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 clades. The Spike protein has different hotspots of mutation and deletion, the most dangerous for immune escape being the ones within the receptor binding domain (RBD), such as K417N/T, N439K, L452R, Y453F, S477N, E484K, and N501Y. Convergent evolution has led to different combinations of mutations among different clades. In this review we focus on the main variants of concern, that is, the so-called UK (B.1.1.7), South African (B.1.351) and Brazilian (P.1) strains.

Comment on "Genomic epidemiology of superspreading events in Austria reveals mutational dynamics and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2"

[Figure: see text].

Response to comment on "Genomic epidemiology of superspreading events in Austria reveals mutational dynamics and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2"

Further analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genome sequencing data identifies several highly recurrent genetic variants with low allele frequencies, which, if filtered out, provide estimates consistent with tighter transmission bottlenecks.

Intra-host evolution during SARS-CoV-2 prolonged infection

Long-term infection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) represents a challenge to virus dispersion and the control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The reason why some people have prolonged infection and how the virus persists for so long are still not fully understood. Recent studies suggested that the accumulation of intra-host single nucleotide variants (iSNVs) over the course of the infection might play an important role in persistence as well as emergence of mutations of concern. For this reason, we aimed to investigate the intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during prolonged infection. Thirty-three patients who remained reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) positive in the nasopharynx for on average 18 days from the symptoms onset were included in this study. Whole-genome sequences were obtained for each patient at two different time points. Phylogenetic, populational, and computational analyses of viral sequences were consistent with prolonged infection without evidence of coinfection in our cohort. We observed an elevated within-host genomic diversity at the second time point samples positively correlated with cycle threshold (Ct) values (lower viral load). Direct transmission was also confirmed in a small cluster of healthcare professionals that shared the same workplace by the presence of common iSNVs. A differential accumulation of missense variants between the time points was detected targeting crucial structural and non-structural proteins such as Spike and helicase. Interestingly, longitudinal acquisition of iSNVs in Spike protein coincided in many cases with SARS-CoV-2 reactive and predicted T cell epitopes. We observed a distinguishing pattern of mutations over the course of the infection mainly driven by increasing A→U and decreasing G→A signatures. G→A mutations may be associated with RNA-editing enzyme activities; therefore, the mutational profiles observed in our analysis were suggestive of innate immune mechanisms of the host cell defense. Therefore, we unveiled a dynamic and complex landscape of host and pathogen interaction during prolonged infection of SARS-CoV-2, suggesting that the host’s innate immunity shapes the increase of intra-host diversity. Our findings may also shed light on possible mechanisms underlying the emergence and spread of new variants resistant to the host immune response as recently observed in COVID-19 pandemic.

Acute SARS-CoV-2 infections harbor limited within-host diversity and transmit via tight transmission bottlenecks

The emergence of divergent SARS-CoV-2 lineages has raised concern that novel variants eliciting immune escape or the ability to displace circulating lineages could emerge within individual hosts. Though growing evidence suggests that novel variants arise during prolonged infections, most infections are acute. Understanding how efficiently variants emerge and transmit among acutely-infected hosts is therefore critical for predicting the pace of long-term SARS-CoV-2 evolution. To characterize how within-host diversity is generated and propagated, we combine extensive laboratory and bioinformatic controls with metrics of within- and between-host diversity to 133 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from acutely-infected individuals. We find that within-host diversity is low and transmission bottlenecks are narrow, with very few viruses founding most infections. Within-host variants are rarely transmitted, even among individuals within the same household, and are rarely detected along phylogenetically linked infections in the broader community. These findings suggest that most variation generated within-host is lost during transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity and transmission

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have enabled researchers to monitor its spread and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission, we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the United Kingdom. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high and by a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost or occasionally fixed at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity, patterns that are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to arise infrequently but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.