Climate extremes: observations, modeling, and impacts

Extensive drought negates human influence on nutrients and water quality in estuaries

Impacts of land-use on estuarine environmental parameters and nutrients are well documented, but little is known about these characteristics during extensive periods of low water flow (i.e., drought). Droughts are set to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change, and understanding their influence on ecosystems is imperative. We investigated differences in environmental parameters and nutrients in urban and rural estuaries during a period of prolonged low flow. Sampling was done along each estuary at multiple times to place small-scale variability in the context of land-use differences. No differences were detected between land-use for environmental parameters or nutrients in mean effects or variance structure. Urban estuaries had reduced variation in nutrients over time compared to rural estuaries, which suggested that their concentrations are more stable. Large differences existed within and between individual estuaries, and over time. Low freshwater flow conditions in estuaries provide a glimpse to future climate change impacts of drought, and a baseline upon which pollution and anthropogenic effects can be assessed.

Role of human-mediated dispersal in the spread of the pinewood nematode in China

Background

Intensification of world trade is responsible for an increase in the number of alien species introductions. Human-mediated dispersal promotes not only introductions but also expansion of the species distribution via long-distance dispersal. Thus, understanding the role of anthropogenic pathways in the spread of invading species has become one of the most important challenges nowadays.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analysed the invasion pattern of the pinewood nematode in China based on invasion data from 1982 to 2005 and monitoring data on 7 locations over 15 years. Short distance spread mediated by long-horned beetles was estimated at 7.5 km per year. Infested sites located further away represented more than 90% of observations and the mean long distance spread was estimated at 111–339 km. Railways, river ports, and lakes had significant effects on the spread pattern. Human population density levels explained 87% of the variation in the invasion probability (P<0.05). Since 2001, the number of new records of the nematode was multiplied by a factor of 5 and the spread distance by a factor of 2. We combined a diffusion model to describe the short distance spread with a stochastic, individual based model to describe the long distance jumps. This combined model generated an error of only 13% when used to predict the presence of the nematode. Under two climate scenarios (stable climate or moderate warming), projections of the invasion probability suggest that this pest could expand its distribution 40–55% by 2025.

Conclusions/Significance

This study provides evidence that human-induced dispersal plays a fundamental role in the spread of the pinewood nematode, and appropriate control measures should be taken to stop or slow its expansion. This model can be applied to Europe, where the nematode had been introduced later, and is currently expanding its distribution. Similar models could also be derived for other species that could be accidentally transported by humans.

The potential for behavioral thermoregulation to buffer "cold-blooded" animals against climate warming

Increasing concern about the impacts of global warming on biodiversity has stimulated extensive discussion, but methods to translate broad-scale shifts in climate into direct impacts on living animals remain simplistic. A key missing element from models of climatic change impacts on animals is the buffering influence of behavioral thermoregulation. Here, we show how behavioral and mass/energy balance models can be combined with spatial data on climate, topography, and vegetation to predict impacts of increased air temperature on thermoregulating ectotherms such as reptiles and insects (a large portion of global biodiversity). We show that for most "cold-blooded" terrestrial animals, the primary thermal challenge is not to attain high body temperatures (although this is important in temperate environments) but to stay cool (particularly in tropical and desert areas, where ectotherm biodiversity is greatest). The impact of climate warming on thermoregulating ectotherms will depend critically on how changes in vegetation cover alter the availability of shade as well as the animals' capacities to alter their seasonal timing of activity and reproduction. Warmer environments also may increase maintenance energy costs while simultaneously constraining activity time, putting pressure on mass and energy budgets. Energy- and mass-balance models provide a general method to integrate the complexity of these direct interactions between organisms and climate into spatial predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity. This methodology allows quantitative organism- and habitat-specific assessments of climate change impacts.

Defoliation synchronizes aboveground growth of co-occurring C4 grass species

The aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of grass communities in grasslands and savannas is primarily determined by precipitation quantity. Recent research, motivated by predictions of changes in the distribution of rainfall events by global climate change models, indicates that ANPP may be affected by rainfall distribution as much as by annual totals. Grazing and community composition are also known to affect grassland ANPP. The manner in which interactions between rainfall distribution, grazing, and community composition affect the relationship between precipitation and ANPP represents a critical knowledge gap. The effects of community composition and grazing on aboveground growth responses to intraseasonal variation in water availability were investigated at seven grassland sites with a nonselective clipping experiment. The aboveground growth of the dominant C4 species at each site was measured at regular intervals for 2-3 growing seasons in the presence or absence of regular defoliation. In the absence of defoliation, there was a general lack of synchrony of intraseasonal growth among co-occurring species. Variation in growth rates was high and was only partially explained by variation in rainfall. Regular defoliation increased growth synchrony at all sites, but changes in growth responses to rainfall varied between sites. These results suggest that community composition will be important in determining ANPP-precipitation relationships under conditions of altered rainfall distribution. However this effect appears to be a result of species responding differently to soil water or other resources rather than to rainfall per se. Grazing may override the effects of community composition by reducing differences in growth patterns between species and has the potential to weaken precipitation controls on ANPP.

Freezing resistance varies within the growing season and with elevation in high-Andean species of central Chile

Predicted increases in the length of the growing season as a result of climate change may more frequently expose high-elevation plants to severe frosts. Understanding the ability of these species to resist frosts during the growing season is essential for predicting how species may respond to changes in temperature regimes. Here, we assessed the freezing resistance of 24 species from the central Chilean Andes by determining their low temperature damage (LT(50)), ice nucleation temperature (NT), freezing point (FP) and freezing resistance mechanism (i.e. avoidance or tolerance). The Andean species were found to resist frosts from -8.2 to -19.5 degrees C during the growing season, and freezing tolerance was the most common resistance mechanism. Freezing resistance (LT(50)) varied within the growing season, decreasing towards the end of this period in most of the studied species. However, the FP showed the opposite trend. LT(50) increased with elevation, whilst FP was lower in plants from lower elevations, especially late in the growing season. Andean species have the potential to withstand severe freezing conditions during the growing season, and the aridity of this high-elevation environment seems to play an important role in determining this high freezing resistance.

Assessing the impact of climate variation on survival in vertebrate populations

The impact of the ongoing rapid climate change on natural systems is a major issue for human societies. An important challenge for ecologists is to identify the climatic factors that drive temporal variation in demographic parameters, and, ultimately, the dynamics of natural populations. The analysis of long-term monitoring data at the individual scale is often the only available approach to estimate reliably demographic parameters of vertebrate populations. We review statistical procedures used in these analyses to study links between climatic factors and survival variation in vertebrate populations. We evaluated the efficiency of various statistical procedures from an analysis of survival in a population of white stork, Ciconia ciconia, a simulation study and a critical review of 78 papers published in the ecological literature. We identified six potential methodological problems: (i) the use of statistical models that are not well-suited to the analysis of long-term monitoring data collected at the individual scale; (ii) low ratios of number of statistical units to number of candidate climatic covariates; (iii) collinearity among candidate climatic covariates; (iv) the use of statistics, to assess statistical support for climatic covariates effects, that deal poorly with unexplained variation in survival; (v) spurious detection of effects due to the co-occurrence of trends in survival and the climatic covariate time series; and (vi) assessment of the magnitude of climatic effects on survival using measures that cannot be compared across case studies. The critical review of the ecological literature revealed that five of these six methodological problems were often poorly tackled. As a consequence we concluded that many of these studies generated hypotheses but only few provided solid evidence for impacts of climatic factors on survival or reliable measures of the magnitude of such impacts. We provide practical advice to solve efficiently most of the methodological problems identified. The only frequent issue that still lacks a straightforward solution was the low ratio of the number of statistical units to the number of candidate climatic covariates. In the perspective of increasing this ratio and therefore of producing more robust analyses of the links between climate and demography, we suggest leads to improve the procedures for designing field protocols and selecting a set of candidate climatic covariates. Finally, we present recent statistical methods with potential interest for assessing the impact of climatic factors on demographic parameters.

Severe drought and calf survival in elephants

Climate change in Africa is expected to lead to a higher occurrence of severe droughts in semi-arid and arid ecosystems. Understanding how animal populations react to such events is thus crucial for addressing future challenges for wildlife management and conservation. We explored how gender, age, mother's experience and family group characteristics determined calf survival in an elephant population during a severe drought in Tanzania in 1993. Young males were particularly sensitive to the drought and calf loss was higher among young mothers than among more experienced mothers. We also report high variability in calf mortality between different family groups, with family groups that remained in the National Park suffering heavy calf loss, compared with the ones that left the Park. This study highlights how severe droughts can dramatically affect early survival of large herbivores and suggests that extreme climatic events might act as a selection force on vertebrate populations, allowing only individuals with the appropriate behaviour and/or knowledge to survive.

Primary production and rain use efficiency across a precipitation gradient on the Mongolia Plateau

Understanding how the aboveground net primary production (ANPP) of arid and semiarid ecosystems of the world responds to variations in precipitation is crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems. Rain-use efficiency (RUE) is an important measure for acquiring this understanding. However, little is known about the response pattern of RUE for the largest contiguous natural grassland region of the world, the Eurasian Steppe. Here we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of ANPP and RUE and their key driving factors based on a long-term data set from 21 natural arid and semiarid ecosystem sites across the Inner Mongolia steppe region in northern China. Our results showed that, with increasing mean annual precipitation (MAP), (1) ANPP increased while the interannual variability of ANPP declined, (2) plant species richness increased and the relative abundance of key functional groups shifted predictably, and (3) RUE increased in space across different ecosystems but decreased with increasing annual precipitation within a given ecosystem. These results clearly indicate that the patterns of both ANPP and RUE are scale dependent, and the seemingly conflicting patterns of RUE in space vs. time suggest distinctive underlying mechanisms, involving interactions among precipitation, soil N, and biotic factors. Also, while our results supported the existence of a common maximum RUE, they also indicated that its value could be substantially increased by altering resource availability, such as adding nitrogen. Our findings have important implications for understanding and predicting ecological impacts of global climate change and for management practices in arid and semiarid ecosystems in the Inner Mongolia steppe region and beyond.

Prolonged suppression of ecosystem carbon dioxide uptake after an anomalously warm year

Terrestrial ecosystems control carbon dioxide fluxes to and from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and respiration, a balance between net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration, that determines whether an ecosystem is sequestering carbon or releasing it to the atmosphere. Global and site-specific data sets have demonstrated that climate and climate variability influence biogeochemical processes that determine net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange (NEE) at multiple timescales. Experimental data necessary to quantify impacts of a single climate variable, such as temperature anomalies, on NEE and carbon sequestration of ecosystems at interannual timescales have been lacking. This derives from an inability of field studies to avoid the confounding effects of natural intra-annual and interannual variability in temperature and precipitation. Here we present results from a four-year study using replicate 12,000-kg intact tallgrass prairie monoliths located in four 184-m(3) enclosed lysimeters. We exposed 6 of 12 monoliths to an anomalously warm year in the second year of the study and continuously quantified rates of ecosystem processes, including NEE. We find that warming decreases NEE in both the extreme year and the following year by inducing drought that suppresses net primary productivity in the extreme year and by stimulating heterotrophic respiration of soil biota in the subsequent year. Our data indicate that two years are required for NEE in the previously warmed experimental ecosystems to recover to levels measured in the control ecosystems. This time lag caused net ecosystem carbon sequestration in previously warmed ecosystems to be decreased threefold over the study period, compared with control ecosystems. Our findings suggest that more frequent anomalously warm years, a possible consequence of increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide levels, may lead to a sustained decrease in carbon dioxide uptake by terrestrial ecosystems.

High temperatures enhanced acute mortality effects of ambient particle pollution in the "oven" city of Wuhan, China

BACKGROUND

We investigated whether the effect of air pollution on daily mortality is enhanced by high temperatures in Wuhan, China, using data from 2001 to 2004. Wuhan has been called an "oven" city because of its hot summers. Approximately 4.5 million permanent residents live in the 201-km(2) core area of the city.

METHOD

We used a generalized additive model to analyze pollution, mortality, and covariate data. The estimates of the interaction between high temperature and air pollution were obtained from the main effects and pollutant-temperature interaction models.

RESULTS

We observed effects of consistently and statistically significant interactions between particulate matter < or = 10 microm (PM(10)) and temperature on daily nonaccidental (p = 0.014), cardiovascular (p = 0.007), and cardiopulmonary (p = 0.014) mortality. The PM(10) effects were strongest on extremely high-temperature days (daily average temperature, 33.1 degrees C), less strong on extremely low-temperature days (2.2 degrees C), and weakest on normal-temperature days (18.0 degrees C). The estimates of the mean percentage of change in daily mortality per 10-mug/m(3) increase in PM(10) concentrations at the average of lags 0 and 1 day during hot temperature were 2.20% (95% confidence interval), 0.74-3.68) for nonaccidental, 3.28% (1.24-5.37) for cardiovascular, 2.35% (-0.03 to 4.78) for stroke, 3.31% (-0.22 to 6.97) for cardiac, 1.15% (-3.54% to 6.07) for respiratory, and 3.02% (1.03-5.04) for cardiopulmonary mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

We found synergistic effects of PM(10) and high temperatures on daily nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and cardiopulmonary mortality in Wuhan.

Temperature and mortality in nine US cities

BACKGROUND

Extreme temperatures have been associated with increased mortality worldwide. The extent to which air pollutants may confound or modify this association remains unclear.

METHODS

We examined the association between mean apparent temperature and total mortality in 9 cities across the United States during the warm season (May to September) from 1999 to 2002. We applied case-crossover and time-series analyses, adjusting for day of the week and season in time-series analysis. City-specific estimates were then combined using a meta-analysis. A total of 213,438 deaths for all causes occurred in these cities during the study period.

RESULTS

We found that mortality increased with apparent temperature. A 5.5 degrees C (10 degrees F) increase in apparent temperature was associated with an increase in mortality of 1.8% (95% confidence interval = 1.09% to 2.5%) when using case-crossover analysis and with an increase of 2.7% (2.0% to 3.5%) using the time-series analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides evidence of increased mortality due to elevated apparent temperature exposure, with no confounding or effect modification due to air pollution.

Increasing precipitation event size increases aboveground net primary productivity in a semi-arid grassland

Water availability is the primary constraint to aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in many terrestrial biomes, and it is an ecosystem driver that will be strongly altered by future climate change. Global circulation models predict a shift in precipitation patterns to growing season rainfall events that are larger in size but fewer in number. This "repackaging" of rainfall into large events with long intervening dry intervals could be particularly important in semi-arid grasslands because it is in marked contrast to the frequent but small events that have historically defined this ecosystem. We investigated the effect of more extreme rainfall patterns on ANPP via the use of rainout shelters and paired this experimental manipulation with an investigation of long-term data for ANPP and precipitation. Experimental plots (n = 15) received the long-term (30-year) mean growing season precipitation quantity; however, this amount was distributed as 12, six, or four events applied manually according to seasonal patterns for May-September. The long-term mean (1940-2005) number of rain events in this shortgrass steppe was 14 events, with a minimum of nine events in years of average precipitation. Thus, our experimental treatments pushed this system beyond its recent historical range of variability. Plots receiving fewer, but larger rain events had the highest rates of ANPP (184 +/- 38 g m(-2)), compared to plots receiving more frequent rainfall (105 +/- 24 g m(-2)). ANPP in all experimental plots was greater than long-term mean ANPP for this system (97 g m(-2)), which may be explained in part by the more even distribution of applied rain events. Soil moisture data indicated that larger events led to greater soil water content and likely permitted moisture penetration to deeper in the soil profile. These results indicate that semi-arid grasslands are capable of responding immediately and substantially to forecast shifts to more extreme precipitation patterns.

Increasing precipitation event size increases aboveground net primary productivity in a semi-arid grassland

Water availability is the primary constraint to aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in many terrestrial biomes, and it is an ecosystem driver that will be strongly altered by future climate change. Global circulation models predict a shift in precipitation patterns to growing season rainfall events that are larger in size but fewer in number. This "repackaging" of rainfall into large events with long intervening dry intervals could be particularly important in semi-arid grasslands because it is in marked contrast to the frequent but small events that have historically defined this ecosystem. We investigated the effect of more extreme rainfall patterns on ANPP via the use of rainout shelters and paired this experimental manipulation with an investigation of long-term data for ANPP and precipitation. Experimental plots (n = 15) received the long-term (30-year) mean growing season precipitation quantity; however, this amount was distributed as 12, six, or four events applied manually according to seasonal patterns for May-September. The long-term mean (1940-2005) number of rain events in this shortgrass steppe was 14 events, with a minimum of nine events in years of average precipitation. Thus, our experimental treatments pushed this system beyond its recent historical range of variability. Plots receiving fewer, but larger rain events had the highest rates of ANPP (184 +/- 38 g m(-2)), compared to plots receiving more frequent rainfall (105 +/- 24 g m(-2)). ANPP in all experimental plots was greater than long-term mean ANPP for this system (97 g m(-2)), which may be explained in part by the more even distribution of applied rain events. Soil moisture data indicated that larger events led to greater soil water content and likely permitted moisture penetration to deeper in the soil profile. These results indicate that semi-arid grasslands are capable of responding immediately and substantially to forecast shifts to more extreme precipitation patterns.

Neutrality and the response of rare species to environmental variance

Neutral models and differential responses of species to environmental heterogeneity offer complementary explanations of species abundance distribution and dynamics. Under what circumstances one model prevails over the other is still a matter of debate. We show that the decay of similarity over time in rocky seashore assemblages of algae and invertebrates sampled over a period of 16 years was consistent with the predictions of a stochastic model of ecological drift at time scales larger than 2 years, but not at time scales between 3 and 24 months when similarity was quantified with an index that reflected changes in abundance of rare species. A field experiment was performed to examine whether assemblages responded neutrally or non-neutrally to changes in temporal variance of disturbance. The experimental results did not reject neutrality, but identified a positive effect of intermediate levels of environmental heterogeneity on the abundance of rare species. This effect translated into a marked decrease in the characteristic time scale of species turnover, highlighting the role of rare species in driving assemblage dynamics in fluctuating environments.

What can we learn from resource pulses?

An increasing number of studies in a wide range of natural systems have investigated how pulses of resource availability influence ecological processes at individual, population, and community levels. Taken together, these studies suggest that some common processes may underlie pulsed resource dynamics in a wide diversity of systems. Developing a common framework of terms and concepts for the study of resource pulses may facilitate greater synthesis among these apparently disparate systems. Here, we propose a general definition of the resource pulse concept, outline some common patterns in the causes and consequences of resource pulses, and suggest a few key questions for future investigations. We define resource pulses as episodes of increased resource availability in space and time that combine low frequency (rarity), large magnitude (intensity), and short duration (brevity), and emphasize the importance of considering resource pulses at spatial and temporal scales relevant to specific resource-onsumer interactions. Although resource pulses are uncommon events for consumers in specific systems, our review of the existing literature suggests that pulsed resource dynamics are actually widespread phenomena in nature. Resource pulses often result from climatic and environmental factors, processes of spatiotemporal accumulation and release, outbreak population dynamics, or a combination of these factors. These events can affect life history traits and behavior at the level of individual consumers, numerical responses at the population level, and indirect effects at the community level. Consumers show strategies for utilizing ephemeral resources opportunistically, reducing resource variability by averaging over larger spatial scales, and tolerating extended interpulse periods of reduced resource availability. Resource pulses can also create persistent effects in communities through several mechanisms. We suggest that the study of resource pulses provides opportunities to understand the dynamics of many specific systems, and may also contribute to broader ecological questions at individual, population, and community levels.

Macrophysiology for a changing world

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) has identified climate change, habitat destruction, invasive species, overexploitation and pollution as the major drivers of biodiversity loss and sources of concern for human well-being. Understanding how these drivers operate and interact and how they might be mitigated are among the most pressing questions facing humanity. Here, we show how macrophysiology--the investigation of variation in physiological traits over large geographical, temporal and phylogenetic scales--can contribute significantly to answering these questions. We do so by demonstrating, for each of the MA drivers, how a macrophysiological approach can or has helped elucidate the impacts of these drivers and their interactions. Moreover, we illustrate that a large-scale physiological perspective can provide insights into previously unrecognized threats to diversity, such as the erosion of physiological variation and stress tolerance, which are a consequence of the removal of large species and individuals from the biosphere. In so doing we demonstrate that environmental physiologists have much to offer the scientific quest to resolve major environmental problems.

Influence of a large late summer precipitation event on food limitation and grasshopper population dynamics in a northern Great Plains grassland

The complex interplay between grasshoppers, weather conditions, and plants that cause fluctuations in grasshopper populations remains poorly understood, and little is known about the ecological processes that generate grasshopper outbreaks. Grasshopper populations respond to interacting extrinsic and intrinsic factors, with yearly and decadal weather patterns and the timing of precipitation all potentially important. The effects of initial and increasing grasshopper densities on grasshopper survival and reproductive correlates were examined at a northern mixed-grass prairie site through manipulations of grasshopper densities inside 10-m2 cages. High-quality grass growth occurred after a 9.1-cm mid-August rain. Reduced proportional survival was apparent in the two higher density treatments before the rain, indicative of food-limited density-dependent mortality. However, the large late summer rainfall event mediated the effects of exploitative competition on demographic characteristics because of the high-quality vegetation growth. This led to weaker effects of food limitation on survival and reproduction at the end of the experiment. The results indicate a direct link between weather variation, resource quality and grasshopper population dynamics led to a severe grasshopper outbreak and show that infrequent large precipitation events can have significant effects on population dynamics. Additional research is needed to examine the importance of infrequent large precipitation events on grasshopper population dynamics in grassland ecosystems.

Disturbance-driven changes in the variability of ecological patterns and processes

Understanding how disturbance shapes the dynamics of ecological systems is of fundamental importance in ecology. One emerging approach to revealing and appreciating disturbance effects involves examining disturbance-driven changes in the variability of ecological responses. Variability is rarely employed as a response variable to assess the influence of disturbance, but recent studies indicate that it can be an extremely sensitive metric, capturing differences obscured by averaging and conveying important ecological information about underlying causal processes. In this paper, we present a conceptual model to understand and predict the effects of disturbance on variability. The model estimates qualitative changes in variability by considering disturbance extent, frequency and intensity, as well as ecosystem recovery, and thereby captures not only the immediate effects of disturbance but also those that arise over time due to the biotic response to an event. We evaluate how well the model performs by comparing predictions with empirical results from studies examining a wide variety of disturbances and ecosystems, and discuss factors that may modify or even confound predictions. We include a concise guide to characterizing and detecting changes in variability, highlighting the most common and easily applied methods and conclude by describing several future directions for research. By considering variability as a response to disturbance, we gain another metric of fundamental system behaviour, an improved ability to identify organizing features of ecosystems and a better understanding of the predictability of disturbance-driven change - all critical aspects of assessing ecosystem response to disturbance.

Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes

Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

Effects of simulated daily precipitation patterns on annual plant populations depend on life stage and climatic region

Background

To improve the understanding of consequences of climate change for annual plant communities, I used a detailed, grid-based model that simulates the effect of daily rainfall variability on individual plants in five climatic regions on a gradient from 100 to 800 mm mean annual precipitation (MAP). The model explicitly considers moisture storage in the soil. I manipulated daily rainfall variability by changing the daily mean rain (DMR, rain volume on rainy days averaged across years for each day of the year) by ± 20%. At the same time I adjusted intervals appropriately between rainy days for keeping the mean annual volume constant. In factorial combination with changing DMR I also changed MAP by ± 20%.

Results

Increasing MAP generally increased water availability, establishment, and peak shoot biomass. Increasing DMR increased the time that water was continuously available to plants in the upper 15 to 30 cm of the soil (longest wet period, LWP). The effect of DMR diminished with increasing humidity of the climate. An interaction between water availability and density-dependent germination increased the establishment of seedlings in the arid region, but in the more humid regions the establishment of seedlings decreased with increasing DMR. As plants matured, competition among individuals and their productivity increased, but the size of these effects decreased with the humidity of the regions. Therefore, peak shoot biomass generally increased with increasing DMR but the effect size diminished from the semiarid to the mesic Mediterranean region. Increasing DMR reduced via LWP the annual variability of biomass in the semiarid and dry Mediterranean regions.

Conclusion

More rainstorms (greater DMR) increased the recharge of soil water reservoirs in more arid sites with consequences for germination, establishment, productivity, and population persistence. The order of magnitudes of DMR and MAP overlapped partially so that their combined effect is important for projections of climate change effects on annual vegetation.

Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly

Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant species; (iii) reset long-term population and community trends; (iv) interacted with competitive and metapopulation dynamics; and (v) resulted in rapid, wholesale reorganization of the community. This and a previous extreme rainfall event were punctuational perturbations-they caused large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change. Captured by chance through long-term monitoring, the impacts of such large, infrequent events provide unique insights into the processes that structure ecological communities.

Costs and benefits of cold acclimation in field-released Drosophila

One way animals can counter the effects of climatic extremes is via physiological acclimation, but acclimating to one extreme might decrease performance under different conditions. Here, we use field releases of Drosophila melanogaster on two continents across a range of temperatures to test for costs and benefits of developmental or adult cold acclimation. Both types of cold acclimation had enormous benefits at low temperatures in the field; in the coldest releases only cold-acclimated flies were able to find a resource. However, this advantage came at a huge cost; flies that had not been cold-acclimated were up to 36 times more likely to find food than the cold-acclimated flies when temperatures were warm. Such costs and strong benefits were not evident in laboratory tests where we found no reduction in heat survival of the cold-acclimated flies. Field release studies, therefore, reveal costs of cold acclimation that standard laboratory assays do not detect. Thus, although physiological acclimation may dramatically improve fitness over a narrow set of thermal conditions, it may have the opposite effect once conditions extend outside this range, an increasingly likely scenario as temperature variability increases under global climate change.

Phenotypic plasticity mediates climate change responses among invasive and indigenous arthropods

Synergies between global change and biological invasion have been identified as a major potential threat to global biodiversity and human welfare. The global change-type drought characteristic of many temperate terrestrial ecosystems is especially significant because it will apparently favour invasive over indigenous species, adding to the burden of conservation and compromising ecosystem service delivery. However, the nature of and mechanisms underlying this synergy remain poorly explored. Here we show that in a temperate terrestrial ecosystem, invasive and indigenous springtail species differ in the form of their phenotypic plasticity such that warmer conditions promote survival of desiccation in the invasive species and reduce it in the indigenous ones. These differences are consistent with significant declines in the densities of indigenous species and little change in those of invasive species in a manipulative field experiment that mimicked climate change trends. We suggest that it is not so much the extent of phenotypic plasticity that distinguishes climate change responses among these invasive and indigenous species, as the form that this plasticity takes. Nonetheless, this differential physiological response provides support for the idea that in temperate terrestrial systems experiencing global change-type drought, invasive species may well be at an advantage relative to their indigenous counterparts.

Interference competition between introduced black rats and endemic Galápagos rice rats

Replicated field experiments were used to quantify and to describe the mechanism of competition between the introduced black rat Rattus rattus and the endemic Santiago rice rat Nesoryzomys swarthi on Santiago Island, Galápagos Islands, Ecuador. The removal of R. rattus significantly slowed the rate of seasonal population decline in N. swarthi. This effect was particularly evident for female, relative to male, N. swarthi and appeared to be driven solely by enhanced immigration; no other fitness or space use parameters were affected. The candidate hypotheses to explain the mechanism of competition were exploitation competition, interference by resource defense, and interference by aggressive encounter. To distinguish between hypotheses, we conducted a replicated resource supplementation experiment with patchy food, scattered food, and no food (control) treatments. The opportunistic R. rattus responded to the extra resources with increased adult immigration and juvenile recruitment, resulting in a significant abundance boost of sevenfold on patchy grids and fourfold on scattered grids. Females increased in body mass, and the breeding season was lengthened. In contrast, there was no change in the abundance of N. swarthi and no obvious benefit to reproduction. Instead, the costs of interference apparently outweighed the benefits of extra food: female N. swarthi increased in mass with supplementary food, but female (relative to male) immigration and residency were repressed on all supplemented areas. This response supported the hypothesis of interference by aggressive encounter, and we were able to rule out the alternative hypotheses. Although periodic population crashes of R. rattus on the arid north coast of Santiago may ameliorate its competitive impact, climate change may tip the balance. Control or eradication of R. rattus should improve future survival prospects for N. swarthi, but wildlife managers must be prepared for the potential eruption of the introduced house mouse Mus musculus, because this species experienced a release from interference competition and immigrated to removal areas.

Environmental fluctuations can stabilize food web dynamics by increasing synchrony

Natural food webs are species-rich, but classical theory suggests that they should be unstable and extinction-prone. Asynchronous fluctuations in the densities of competing consumers can stabilize food web dynamics in constant environments. However, environmental fluctuations often synchronize dynamics in nature. Using the same 'diamond-shape' food web model first used to demonstrate the stabilizing effects of asynchrony in constant environments, we show that weak-to-moderate environmentally induced fluctuations in consumer mortality rates stabilize food webs while disrupting asynchrony. Synchrony actually promotes stability because: (i) synchronous declines in consumer density reduce the maximum abundance of top predators and (ii) resource competition quickly converts synchronous increases in consumer density into synchronous declines. These results are robust to details of food web topology and the implementation of environmental fluctuations. The fluctuation strengths that enhance stability are within the range experienced naturally by many species, suggesting that stabilization via environmental fluctuations is a realistic possibility.