Effectiveness of the measures to flatten the epidemic curve of COVID-19. The case of Spain

Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Latin America and the Caribbean: Longitudinal Trend Analysis

BACKGROUND

In May 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic, with over 40% of worldwide COVID-19-related deaths at the time. This high disease burden was a result of the unique circumstances in LAC.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to (1) measure whether the pandemic was expanding or contracting in LAC when the WHO declared the end of COVID-19 as a public health emergency of international concern on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in the region and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide, with a focus on prevention policies, a historical context for the course of the pandemic in the region.

METHODS

In addition to updates of traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates from the original study, we used data on sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern (VOCs). We used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations from sequences and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. Additionally, we conducted a 1-sided t test for whether the regional weekly speed (rate of novel COVID-19 transmission) was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the period from August 2020 to May 2023.

RESULTS

The speed of pandemic spread for the region had remained below the outbreak threshold for 6 months by the time of the WHO declaration. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. Although the 1- and 7-day persistence coefficients remained statistically significant for the 120-day period ending on the week of May 5, 2023, the coefficients were relatively modest in magnitude (0.457 and 0.491, respectively). Furthermore, the shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, did not indicate any change in this clustering effect of cases on future cases. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant VOC in sequenced viral samples. The rolling t test of speed=10 became entirely insignificant from January 2023 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

Although COVID-19 continues to circulate in LAC, surveillance data suggest COVID-19 is endemic in the region and no longer reaches the threshold of the pandemic definition. However, the region experienced a high COVID-19 burden in the early stages of the pandemic, and prevention policies should be an immediate focus in future pandemics. Ahead of vaccination development, these policies can include widespread testing of individuals and an epidemiological task force with a contact-tracing system.

Systematic review of empiric studies on lockdowns, workplace closures, and other non-pharmaceutical interventions in non-healthcare workplaces during the initial year of the COVID-19 pandemic: benefits and selected unintended consequences

BACKGROUND

We conducted a systematic review aimed to evaluate the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions within non-healthcare workplaces and community-level workplace closures and lockdowns on COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, selected mental disorders, and employment outcomes in workers or the general population.

METHODS

The inclusion criteria included randomized controlled trials and non-randomized studies of interventions. The exclusion criteria included modeling studies. Electronic searches were conducted using MEDLINE, Embase, and other databases from January 1, 2020, through May 11, 2021. Risk of bias was assessed using the Risk of Bias in Non-Randomized Studies of Interventions (ROBINS-I) tool. Meta-analysis and sign tests were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 observational studies met the inclusion criteria. There were 40 studies on COVID-19 outcomes, 15 on anxiety and depression symptoms, and five on unemployment and labor force participation. There was a paucity of studies on physical distancing, physical barriers, and symptom and temperature screening within workplaces. The sign test indicated that lockdown reduced COVID-19 incidence or case growth rate (23 studies, p < 0.001), reproduction number (11 studies, p < 0.001), and COVID-19 mortality or death growth rate (seven studies, p < 0.05) in the general population. Lockdown did not have any effect on anxiety symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = -0.02, 95% CI: -0.06, 0.02). Lockdown had a small effect on increasing depression symptoms (pooled standardized mean difference = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.10, 0.21), but publication bias could account for the observed effect. Lockdown increased unemployment (pooled mean difference = 4.48 percentage points, 95% CI: 1.79, 7.17) and decreased labor force participation (pooled mean difference = -2.46 percentage points, 95% CI: -3.16, -1.77). The risk of bias for most of the studies on COVID-19 or employment outcomes was moderate or serious. The risk of bias for the studies on anxiety or depression symptoms was serious or critical.

CONCLUSIONS

Empiric studies indicated that lockdown reduced the impact of COVID-19, but that it had notable unwanted effects. There is a pronounced paucity of studies on the effect of interventions within still-open workplaces. It is important for countries that implement lockdown in future pandemics to consider strategies to mitigate these unintended consequences.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration # CRD42020182660.

Dying together: A convergence analysis of fatalities during COVID-19

Governments implemented countermeasures to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus. This had a severe effect on the economy. We examine convergence patterns in the evolution of COVID-19 deaths across countries. We aim to investigate whether countries that implemented different measures managed to limit the number of COVID-19 deaths. We extend the most recent macro-growth convergence methodology to examine convergence of COVID-19 deaths. We combine a long memory stationarity framework with the maximal clique algorithm. This provides a rich and flexible club formation strategy that goes beyond the stationary/non stationary approach adopted in the previous literature. Our results suggest that strict measures (even belated) or an aggressive vaccination scheme can confine the spread of the disease while maintaining the strictness of the measures steady can lead to a burst of the virus. Finally, we observe that fiscal measures did not have an effect on the containment of the virus.

How the Stringency of the COVID-19 Restrictions Influences Motivation for Adherence and Well-Being: The Critical Role of Proportionality

BACKGROUND

The stringency of the measures taken by governments to combat the COVID-19 pandemic varied considerably across countries and time. In the present study, we examined how the proportionality to the epidemiological situation is related to citizens'behavior, motivation and mental health.

METHODS

Across 421 days between March 2020 and March 2022, 273,722 Belgian participants (Mage = 49.47; 63.9% female; 33% single) completed an online questionnaire. Multiple linear mixed regression modeling was used to examine the interaction between the epidemiological situation, as indicated by the actual hospitalization numbers, and the stringency index to predict day-to-day variation in the variables of interest.

RESULTS

Systematic evidence emerged showing that disproportional situations, as opposed to proportional situations, were associated with a clear pattern of maladaptive outcomes. Specifically, when either strict or lenient measures were disproportional in relation to the epidemiological situation, people reported lower autonomous motivation, more controlled motivation and amotivation, less adherence to sanitary rules, higher perceived risk of infection, lower need satisfaction, and higher anxiety and depressive symptoms. Perceived risk severity especially covaried with the stringency of the measures. At the absolute level, citizens reported the highest need satisfaction and mental health during days with proportional lenient measures.

CONCLUSION

Stringent measures are not per se demotivating or compromising of people's well-being, nor are lenient measures as such motivating or enhancing well-being. Only proportional measures, that is, measures with a level of stringency that is aligned with the actual epidemiological situation, are associated with the greatest motivational, behavioral, and mental health benefits.

Compact living or policy inaction? Effects of urban density and lockdown on the COVID-19 outbreak in the US

The coronavirus pandemic has reignited the debate over urban density. Popular media has been quick to blame density as a key contributor to rapid disease transmission, questioning whether compact cities are still a desirable planning goal. Past research on the density-pandemic connection have produced mixed results. This article offers a critical perspective on this debate by unpacking the effects of alternative measures of urban density, and examining the impacts of mandatory lockdowns and the stringency of other government restrictions on cumulative Covid-19 infection and mortality rates during the early phase of the pandemic in the US. Our results show a consistent positive effect of density on Covid-19 outcomes across urban areas during the first six months of the outbreak. However, we find modest variations in the density-pandemic relationship depending on how densities are measured. We also find relatively longer duration mandatory lockdowns to be associated with lower infection and mortality rates, and lockdown duration's effect to be relatively more pronounced in high-density urban areas. Moreover, we find that the timing of lockdown imposition and the stringency of the government's response additionally influence Covid-19 outcomes, and that the effects vary by urban density. We argue that the adverse impact of density on pandemics could be mitigated by adopting strict lockdowns and other stringent human mobility and interaction restriction policies in a spatially targeted manner. Our study helps to inform current and future government policies to contain the virus, and to make our cities more resilient against future shocks and threats.

Can Views and Contact with Nature at Home Help Combat Anxiety and Depression during the Pandemic? Results of the GreenCOVID study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic and the lockdown measures have had important consequences on the mental health of the population, although little is known about the role played by nature and its benefits.

OBJECTIVES

The present study aims to evaluate the risk of anxiety and depression during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain and to identify the factors most strongly associated with anxiety and depression, including sociodemographic, household characteristics, and access to or contact with natural environment.

METHODS

GreenCOVID is an online cross-sectional study promoted by the Health & Territory Research (HTR) of the University of Seville in Spain, Maynooth University in Ireland, and the University of Winchester in the United Kingdom. This study includes only data from Spain which were collected between April 8, 2020 and April 27, 2020. Binary logistic regression was conducted to identify the factors associated with anxiety and depression through the HADS scale.

RESULTS

Of the total of 2,464 adults who participated in GreenCOVID Spain, mean age was 38.1 years, 72.6% were female, 58.1% were at risk of anxiety, and 32.3% of depression. In the multivariable logistic regression, the factors associated with risk of anxiety were female: gender, being a student and problems at home. Regarding the risk of depression, the factors most associated were being a student, female gender, problems at home, worse evaluation of views from home and less help from outside views to cope with lockdown.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings show that during COVID-19 pandemic, in addition to sociodemographic factors female gender and being a student, problems at home, lack of natural elements in the home, and worse appreciation of views from home were associated with mental health problems. Thus, housing conditions and access to the natural environment were important for mental health during COVID-19 lockdown.

Estimating the propagation of both reported and undocumented COVID-19 cases in Spain: a panel data frontier approximation of epidemiological models

We use a stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach to model the propagation of the COVID-19 epidemic across geographical areas. The proposed models permit reported and undocumented cases to be estimated, which is important as case counts are overwhelmingly believed to be undercounted. The models can be estimated using only epidemic-type data but are flexible enough to permit these reporting rates to vary across geographical cross-section units of observation. We provide an empirical application of our models to Spanish data corresponding to the initial months of the original outbreak of the virus in early 2020. We find remarkable rates of under-reporting that might explain why the Spanish Government took its time to implement strict mitigation strategies. We also provide insights into the effectiveness of the national and regional lockdown measures and the influence of socio-economic factors in the propagation of the virus.

Investigating the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases

Following a pandemic disease outbreak, people travel to areas with low infection risk, but at the same time the epidemiological situation worsens as mobility flows to those areas increase. These feedback effects from epidemiological conditions to inflows and from inflows to subsequent infections are underexplored to date. This study investigates the two-way relationship between mobility flows and COVID-19 cases in a context of unrestricted mobility without COVID-19 vaccines. To this end, we merge data on COVID-19 cases in Spain during the summer of 2020 at the province level with mobility records based on mobile position tracking. Using a control function approach, we find that a 1% increase in arrivals translates into a 3.5% increase in cases in the following week and 5.6% ten days later. A simulation exercise shows the cases would have dropped by around 64% if the Second State of Alarm had been implemented earlier.

COVID-19 and organisational resilience in Brazil's water sector

The COVID-19 pandemic required a wide range of adaptations to the way that water sector operated globally. This paper looks into the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Brazilian water sector and evaluates the water sector's organisational resilience from the lens of water professionals. This study uses British Standard (BS 65000:2014)'s Resilience Maturity Scale method to evaluate organisational resilience in water sector under two defined scenarios of before and during the pandemic. For this purpose, the self-assessment framework developed by Southern Water in the United Kingdom (based on BS 65000:2014), comprising of the core resilience elements of Direction, Awareness, Alignment, Learning, Strengthening, and Assurance, are used for evaluations. A qualitative-quantitative surveying method is used for data collection. A total of 14 responses to the whole questionnaire were received from May 2021 to August 2021, each representing one water company in Brazil (four local companies and ten state-owned ones). The analyses identified COVID-19 as a threat multiplier particularly to already existing financial challenges due to the pre-existing threats in water sector. Bad debt and the COVID-19 emergency measures are recognised as the main challenges by 21 % and 14 % of the survey respondents. The state-owned and local companies scored an almost similar maturity level 3, 35 % and 34 % respectively, while the local companies scored much lower at maturity level 4 i.e., 26 % as opposed to 47 % in state-owned sector. This indicates that COVID-19 has a greater impact on local companies and the needs to increase preparedness. This study replicates an international experience to raise awareness on water sector's resiliency in Brazil and how it can be improved to withstand future external shocks. It sheds light on how and what existing challenges can be exacerbated facing a global shock and proposes opportunities for improvement of resilience maturity in water sector in Brazil.

COVID-19 health policy evaluation: integrating health and economic perspectives with a data envelopment analysis approach

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global challenge to humankind. To improve the knowledge regarding relevant, efficient and effective COVID-19 measures in health policy, this paper applies a multi-criteria evaluation approach with population, health care, and economic datasets from 19 countries within the OECD. The comparative investigation was based on a Data Envelopment Analysis approach as an efficiency measurement method. Results indicate that on the one hand, factors like population size, population density, and country development stage, did not play a major role in successful pandemic management. On the other hand, pre-pandemic healthcare system policies were decisive. Healthcare systems with a primary care orientation and a high proportion of primary care doctors compared to specialists were found to be more efficient than systems with a medium level of resources that were partly financed through public funding and characterized by a high level of access regulation. Roughly two weeks after the introduction of ad hoc measures, e.g., lockdowns and quarantine policies, we did not observe a direct impact on country-level healthcare efficiency, while delayed lockdowns led to significantly lower efficiency levels during the first COVID-19 wave in 2020. From an economic perspective, strategies without general lockdowns were identified as a more efficient strategy than the full lockdown strategy. Additionally, governmental support of short-term work is promising. Improving the efficiency of COVID-19 countermeasures is crucial in saving as many lives as possible with limited resources.

Development of a semi-structured questionnaire to analyse supply chain resilience in the post-COVID business era

The COVID-19 pandemic has had and is having devastating effects on the health of the population, but also on the economic health of companies and their supply chains. The old paradigms of the commercial and industrial world have been inevitably disrupted: global supply chains have shifted from a system based on efficiency to one oriented towards resilience. To this regard, the present research paper aims at investigating how Supply Chain Resilience will evolve in the new paradigms of the post-COVID business era. In order to contribute to this investigation, a semi-structured questionnaire is developed, through a structured research approach. Future research lines will be based on conducting this questionnaire as a basis for a targeted survey, analysable through association rules.

Assessing the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in Spain, 30 August 2020 to 31 January 2021

BackgroundAfter a national lockdown during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Spain, regional governments implemented different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the second wave.AimTo analyse which implemented NPIs significantly impacted effective reproduction number (R_t) in seven Spanish provinces during 30 August 2020-31 January 2021.MethodsWe coded each NPI and levels of stringency with a 'severity index' (SI) and computed a global SI (mean of SIs per six included interventions). We performed a Bayesian change point analysis on the R_t curve of each province to identify possible associations with global SI variations. We fitted and compared several generalised additive models using multimodel inference, to quantify the statistical effect on R_t of the global SI (stringency) and the individual SIs (separate effect of NPIs).ResultsThe global SI had a significant lowering effect on the R_t (mean: 0.16 ± 0.05 units for full stringency). Mandatory closing times for non-essential businesses, limited gatherings, and restricted outdoors seating capacities (negative) as well as curfews (positive) were the only NPIs with a significant effect. Regional mobility restrictions and limited indoors seating capacity showed no effect. Our results were consistent with a 1- to 3-week-delayed R_t as a response variable.ConclusionWhile response measures implemented during the second COVID-19 wave contributed substantially to a decreased reproduction number, the effectiveness of measures varied considerably. Our findings should be considered for future interventions, as social and economic consequences could be minimised by considering only measures proven effective.

Effectiveness of different types and levels of social distancing measures: a scoping review of global evidence from earlier stage of COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

Social distancing is one of the main non-pharmaceutical interventions used in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. This scoping review aims to synthesise research findings on the effectiveness of different types and levels of social distancing measures in the earlier stage of COVID-19 pandemic without the confounding effect of mass vaccination.

DESIGN

Scoping review.

DATA SOURCES

MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and four other databases were searched for eligible studies on social distancing for COVID-19 published from inception of the databases to 30 September 2020.

STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION

Effectiveness studies on social distancing between individuals, school closures, workplace/business closures, public transport restrictions and partial/full lockdown were included. Non-English articles, studies in healthcare settings or not based on empirical data were excluded.

RESULTS

After screening 1638 abstracts and 8 additional articles from other sources, 41 studies were included for synthesis of findings. The review found that the outcomes of social distancing measures were mainly indicated by changes in R_t , incidence and mortality, along with indirect indicators such as daily contact frequency and travel distance. There was adequate empirical evidence for the effect of social distancing at the individual level, and for partial or full lockdown at the community level. However, at the level of social settings, the evidence was moderate for school closure, and was limited for workplace/business closures as single targeted interventions. There was no evidence for a separate effect of public transport restriction.

CONCLUSIONS

In the community setting, there was stronger evidence for the combined effect of different social distancing interventions than for a single intervention. As fatigue of preventive behaviours is an issue in public health agenda, future studies should analyse the risks in specific settings such as eateries and entertainment to implement and evaluate measures which are proportionate to the risk.

COVID-19 Restrictions and Its Influence on Students’ Mathematics Achievement in Spain

COVID-19 restrictions in schools worldwide constitute an important limitation for peer support among students. The masks, the distance between tables or the established sitting order are new challenges that both students and teachers must face in Spain. The conventional strategies that took place among students prior to the COVID-19 pandemic have been altered. In this study, the mathematics achievement of high-school students prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and during the COVID-19 pandemic is examined. Quantitative and qualitative methods were used. A total of 368 students from 9th grade (ages 14 to 15) participated in this research. Statistically significant differences were reported when comparing the mathematics achievement of pre-COVID-19 and post-COVID-19 students (t = 22.21, p < 0.01). An overall negative effect size of −2.32 was reported for those students with COVID-19 restrictions. Mathematics achievement scores were 9.90% lower for the group with restrictions. No statistically significant differences were reported when analyzing results by gender or repeating condition. The qualitative information supported the quantitative findings. Alterations in peer support was identified as one of the main factors that could explain this decrease. The main conclusion of this study is that current restrictions due to COVID-19 could be producing an important decrease in students’ mathematics achievements.

The Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Epidemic Growth Rate during Pre- and Post-Vaccination Period in Asian Countries

There is little knowledge about how the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) reduces the COVID-19 infection rate during the period of vaccine rollout. This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of NPIs on decreasing the epidemic growth of COVID-19 between before and after the vaccine rollout period among Asian countries. Our ecological study included observations from 30 Asian countries over the 20 weeks of the pre- and post-vaccination period. Data were extracted from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and other open databases. Longitudinal analysis was utilized to evaluate the impacts of public health responses and vaccines. The facial covering policy was the most effective intervention in the pre-vaccination period, followed by border control and testing policies. In the post-vaccination period, restrictions on gatherings and public transport closure both play a key role in reducing the epidemic growth rate. Vaccine coverage of 1-5%, 5-10%, 10-30%, and over 30% of the population was linked with an average reduction of 0.12%, 0.32%, 0.31%, and 0.59%, respectively. Our findings support the evidence that besides the vaccine increasingly contributing to pandemic control, the implementation of NPIs also plays a key role.

SARS-CoV-2 in the Environment: Its Transmission, Mitigation, and Prospective Strategies of Safety and Sustainability

The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 have threatened the world’s public health security. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected many countries and significantly smashed the global economy, and also affected the health of the environment. This has upraised many apprehensions about its high transmission rate. Even though the most important routes of its transmission include direct contact and respiratory droplets, the infection through non-direct contacts also plays an important role. The increasing demand for intensive healthcare, escalating death toll and disruption in supply chains and trade have directed to mass implementation of testing, quarantine, and lockdown to restrain virus transmission. The lockdown has been a boon and a bane as well when it comes to the health of the environment. It had improved the air and water quality since the industrial activities were banned and therefore there was no addition of pollutants in the environment, but the usage of plastic-based personal protective equipment (PPE) and other medical waste has simultaneously resulted in huge plastic pollution that is choking seas and marine lives. The precautionary measures given by the United Nations Environment Programme in its COVID response factsheets suggest ways to reduce medical waste and to prevent the spread of the present pandemic. The recent green innovations and environmental stringency programs have resulted in reducing the threats to the environment that would eventually help in inhibiting the spread of such pandemics. In addition, proper measures should be adopted to safeguard the complete health of humans and the environment to execute safety and sustainable development that will help in achieving a stable biome.

Psychological distress during the COVID-19 pandemic in the population of Argentina

ABSTRACT

In addition to the implications that this pandemic has had on physical health, there are other circumstances that threaten the mental health of the population, such as lockdown measures to prevent the spread of the virus, uncertainty, and the increase in infections and deaths. For this reason, this study explored indicators of psychological distress in the Argentine population, as well as its relationship with sociodemographic and health variables.Cross-sectional observational study, with data collection from May to August 2020. A total of 1112 people over the age of 18 who responded to various measurement instruments through an online questionnaire participated. A bivariate analysis and logistic regression were carried out in order to determine predictive factors of psychological distress.The data revealed that 60.9% of the sample presented psychological distress. A greater number with this condition was observed in women, apart from younger people, with a greater number of symptoms associated with the disease and with worse self-perceived health. There was no evidence of association between psychological distress and contact with people infected with coronavirus disease 2019 or with material suspicious of being infected.This research provided an overview of the mental health status of a significant population sample in Argentina, months after the onset of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. These findings complement those found in other national and international studies, allowing the accumulation of evidence that states the need to demand to draw attention to the mental health of the population, especially the most vulnerable groups, on behalf of the public authorities.

Target Groups for a Short Dexamethasone Course among Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients

Introduction

Corticosteroids are one of the most promising therapeutic agents for critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Despite emerging data, assessed populations and regimens vary, and there are patient subgroups whose response to steroids remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the outcomes of COVID-19 patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and treated with a short dexamethasone course to determine which patient categories derive the highest benefit.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using a prospectively collected single-center ICU database (April 1–October 1, 2020). Adult COVID-19 patients were assigned to dexamethasone (12 mg × 3 days) and usual care groups. Patient, management, and outcome data were extracted. The primary outcome was the 28-day ICU mortality. Subgroup analysis was performed to assess the impact of dexamethasone on mortality in patients with invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV).

Results

Of 233 patients, 220 (median age: 65 years, 38% female) were included: 83 patients received dexamethasone and 137 received usual care. Overall, 28 (33.7%) and 54 (39.4%) patients in the dexamethasone and usual care groups, respectively, died within 28 days since ICU admission (rate ratio (RR) 0.86; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.59–1.23; p=0.405). In the IMV cohort, dexamethasone did not decrease the 28-day mortality compared with usual care (47.5% vs. 62.0%; RR 0.78; 95% CI: 0.57–1.09; p=0.107). A subgroup analysis revealed significantly lower 28-day mortality in IMV patients <65 years receiving dexamethasone vs. usual care (22.6% vs. 48.5%; RR 0.47; 95% CI: 0.22–0.98; p=0.043), which was not seen in IMV patients ≥65 years (75.0% vs. 71.1%; RR 1.06; 95% CI: 0.79–1.42; p=0.719). Patients ≥65 years experienced hyperglycemia, bacterial infection, and septic shock significantly more often than younger patients who received dexamethasone (p=0.002, p=0.025, and p < 0.001, respectively).

Conclusions

A 3-day dexamethasone course is not associated with lower 28-day mortality in critically ill COVID-19 patients, either in the entire ICU cohort or in the IMV. Dexamethasone may significantly reduce the 28-day mortality in IMV patients <65 years, but not in the older IMV subgroup. Dexamethasone administration in patients ≥65 years is associated with a significantly higher rate of adverse events than that in younger patients.

Coronavirus Disease 2019: Clinics, Treatment, and Prevention

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, caused by a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), emerged at the end of 2019 in China and affected the entire world population, either by infection and its health consequences, or by restrictions in daily life as a consequence of hygiene measures and containment strategies. As of September 2021, more than 231,000.000 infections and 4,740.000 deaths due to COVID-19 have been reported. The infections present with varied clinical symptoms and severity, ranging from asymptomatic course to fatal outcome. Several risk factors for a severe course of the disease have been identified, the most important being age, gender, comorbidities, lifestyle, and genetics. While most patients recover within several weeks, some report persistent symptoms restricting their daily lives and activities, termed as post-COVID. Over the past 18months, we have acquired significant knowledge as reflected by an almost uncountable number of publications on the nature of the underlying virus and its evolution, host responses to infection, modes of transmission, and different clinical presentations of the disease. Along this line, new diagnostic tests and algorithms have been developed paralleled by the search for and clinical evaluation of specific treatments for the different stages of the disease. In addition, preventive non-pharmacological measures have been implemented to control the spread of infection in the community. While an effective antiviral therapy is not yet available, numerous vaccines including novel vaccine technologies have been developed, which show high protection from infection and specifically from a severe course or death from COVID-19. In this review, we tried to provide an up-to-date schematic of COVID-19, including aspects of epidemiology, virology, clinical presentation, diagnostics, therapy, and prevention.

The Effect of Local and Global Interventions on Epidemic Spreading

Epidemic spreading causes severe challenges to the global public health system, and global and local interventions are considered an effective way to contain such spreading, including school closures (local), border control (global), etc. However, there is little study on comparing the efficiency of global and local interventions on epidemic spreading. Here, we develop a new model based on the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with an additional compartment called “quarantine status”. We simulate various kinds of outbreaks and interventions. Firstly, we predict, consistent with previous studies, interventions reduce epidemic spreading to 16% of its normal level. Moreover, we compare the effect of global and local interventions and find that local interventions are more effective than global ones. We then study the relationships between incubation period and interventions, finding that early implementation of rigorous intervention significantly reduced the scale of the epidemic. Strikingly, we suggest a Pareto optimal in the intervention when resources were limited. Finally, we show that combining global and local interventions is the most effective way to contain the pandemic spreading if initially infected individuals are concentrated in localized regions. Our work deepens our understandings of the role of interventions on the pandemic, and informs an actionable strategy to contain it.

Does Social Capital Promote Health?

The determinants of health are influenced by genetics, lifestyle, social environment, medical conditions, etc. As an informal system, social capital plays an increasingly recognized role in individual health. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the direct and indirect effects of social capital on individual health in China. Using cross-sectional data from the China Family Panel Studies 2016, this paper explores the effects of cognitive and structural social capital on individual health from a micro perspective. The results show that both types of social capital have significant positive effects on individual health, and this effect remains after endogeneity is considered. The two types of social capital show obvious heterogeneity in age samples, urban and rural samples and north-south samples. In addition, the mechanism analysis shows that the health promotion effects of the two types of social capital are mainly derived from the effects of informal finance and access to medical resources. Based on the above findings, this paper puts forward policy recommendations.

Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical public health interventions against COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Non-Pharmaceutical Public Health Interventions (NPHIs) have been used by different countries to control the spread of the COVID-19. Despite available evidence regarding the effectiveness of NPHSs, there is still no consensus about how policymakers can trust these results. Studies on the effectiveness of NPHSs are single studies conducted in specific communities. Therefore, they cannot individually prove if these interventions have been effective in reducing the spread of the infection and its adverse health outcomes. In this systematic review, we aimed to examine the effects of NPHIs on the COVID-19 case growth rate, death growth rate, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission, and reproduction number in countries, where NPHIs have been implemented. We searched relevant electronic databases, including Medline (via PubMed), Scopus, CINAHL, Web of Science, etc. from late December 2019 to February 1, 2021. The key terms were primarily drawn from Medical Subject Heading (MeSh and Emtree), literature review, and opinions of experts. Peer-reviewed quasi-experimental studies were included in the review. The PROSPERO registration number is CRD42020186855. Interventions were NPHIs categorized as lockdown, stay-at-home orders, social distancing, and other interventions (mask-wearing, contact tracing, and school closure). We used PRISMA 2020 guidance for abstracting the data and used Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Practice (EPOC) Risk of Bias Tool for quality appraisal of the studies. Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman random-effects model was performed. Main outcomes included COVID-19 case growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 mortality growth rate (percentage daily changes), COVID-19 ICU admission (percentage daily changes), and COVID-19 reproduction number changes. Our search strategies in major databases yielded 12,523 results, which decreased to 7,540 articles after eliminating duplicates. Finally, 35 articles qualified to be included in the systematic review among which 23 studies were included in the meta-analysis. Although studies were from both low-income and high-income countries, the majority of them were from the United States (13 studies) and China (five studies). Results of the meta-analysis showed that adoption of NPHIs has resulted in a 4.68% (95% CI, -6.94 to -2.78) decrease in daily case growth rates, 4.8% (95 CI, -8.34 to -1.40) decrease in daily death growth rates, 1.90 (95% CI, -2.23 to -1.58) decrease in the COVID-19 reproduction number, and 16.5% (95% CI, -19.68 to -13.32) decrease in COVID-19 daily ICU admission. A few studies showed that, early enforcement of lockdown, when the incidence rate is not high, contributed to a shorter duration of lockdown and a lower increase of the case growth rate in the post-lockdown era. The majority of NPHIs had positive effects on restraining the COVID-19 spread. With the problems that remain regarding universal access to vaccines and their effectiveness and considering the drastic impact of the nationwide lockdown and other harsh restrictions on the economy and people's life, such interventions should be mitigated by adopting other NPHIs such as mass mask-wearing, patient/suspected case isolation strategies, and contact tracing. Studies need to address the impact of NPHIs on the population's other health problems than COVID-19.

Robust trend estimation for COVID-19 in Brazil

Estimating patterns of occurrence of cases and deaths related to the COVID-19 pandemic is a complex problem. The incidence of cases presents a great spatial and temporal heterogeneity, and the mechanisms of accounting for occurrences adopted by health departments induce a process of measurement error that alters the dependence structure of the process. In this work we propose methods to estimate the trend in the cases of COVID-19, controlling for the presence of measurement error. This decomposition is presented in Bayesian time series and spatio-temporal models for counting processes with latent components, and compared to the empirical analysis based on moving averages. We applied time series decompositions for the total number of deaths in Brazil and for the states of São Paulo and Amazonas, and a spatio-temporal analysis for all occurrences of deaths at the state level in Brazil, using two alternative specifications with global and regional components.

Social distance capacity to control the COVID-19 pandemic: A systematic review on time series analysis

BACKGROUND

Reducing interpersonal contact has been one of the least expensive and most widely used COVID-19 control strategies.

OBJECTIVE

This systematic review has been conducted with the aim of identifying social distancing strategies and policies and their impact on the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In order to compile this systematic review, Google Scholar, PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Science Direct, Magiran, SID, and Irandoc databases were searched from the COVID-19 outbreak until March 2021. Keywords included "social", "physical", "distance", "outbreak", "incidence", "prevalence", "spread", "new case", "death*", "mortality*", "morbidity*" , "covid-19", "coronavirus", "sars-cov-2" and "time series*". The articles were qualitatively evaluated by two researchers using the STROBE tool. Finally, the study data were divided into three conceptual categories by three researchers, who then agreed on one category. The practical suggestions were also categorized in the same way.

RESULTS

The policies and strategies adopted to implement social distancing were included in five categories of restrictions, prohibitions, closures, incentives, and punishments. Transportation and travel restrictions, crowded places and schools closure, use of telecommunications and virtual communications, and financial and psychological support to society members were the main policies in this area.

CONCLUSION

Rapid and complete vaccination of all people around the world is out of reach, therefore social distancing and the implementation of physical restraints, especially in crowded and densely populated environments, should be done extensively until COVID-19 is eradicated.

Increased Incidence of COVID-19 Infections Amongst Interpersonal Violence Patients

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether any specific acute care surgery patient populations are associated with a higher incidence of COVID-19 infection.

BACKGROUND

Acute care providers may be exposed to an increased risk of contracting the COVID-19 infection since many patients present to the emergency department without complete screening measures. However, it is not known which patients present with the highest incidence.

METHODS

All acute care surgery (ACS) patients who presented to our level I trauma center between March 19, 2020, and September 20, 2020 and were tested for COVID-19 were included in the study. The patients were divided into two cohorts: COVID positive (+) and COVID negative (-). Patient demographics, type of consultation (emergency general surgery consults [EGS], interpersonal violence trauma consults [IPV], and non-interpersonal violence trauma consults [NIPV]), clinical data and outcomes were analyzed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to compare differences between the groups.

RESULTS

In total, 2177 patients met inclusion criteria. Of these, 116 were COVID+ (5.3%) and 2061 were COVID- (94.7%). COVID+ patients were more frequently Latinos (64.7% versus 61.7%, P = 0.043) and African Americans (18.1% versus 11.2%, P < 0.001) and less frequently Caucasian (6.0% versus 14.1%, P < 0.001). Asian/Filipino/Pacific Islander (7.8% versus 7.2%, P = 0.059) and Native American/Other/Unknown (3.4% versus 5.8%, P = 0.078) groups showed no statistical difference in COVID incidence. Mortality, hospital and ICU lengths of stay were similar between the groups and across patient populations stratified by the type of consultation. Logistic regression demonstrated higher odds of COVID+ infection amongst IPV patients (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.62-7.56, P < 0.001) compared to other ACS consultation types.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that victims of interpersonal violence were more likely positive for COVID-19, while in hospital outcomes were similar between COVID-19 positive and negative patients.

Innovation as recovery strategy for SMEs in emerging economies during the COVID-19 pandemic

The quarantine and disruption of non-essential activities as measure to contain the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected all economies around the World. This has had a deeper impact on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in emerging economies because they have very limited resources and vulnerable supply chain and business-to-business/business-to-clients relationships. In this context, it is expected that after the pandemic many of these enterprises will disappear as the "new normality" will require changes in business and infrastructure management. To reduce this risk, innovation is identified as a key aspect of business recovery in the ongoing and post-COVID-19 pandemic period. This work presents a multidisciplinary methodological approach to guide these enterprises to innovate their products for new markets and making a better use of their limited available resources. As an example of this approach, the research-supported development of a new product for a family-owned SME was performed in a zone with high COVID-19 risk. The results provide insight regarding innovation as a survival tool for SMEs during and after the COVID-19 contingency, and the use of digital resources is identified as the main facilitator for networking and research-based design of innovative products within the "social distance" context.

COVID-19 Self-quarantine and Weight Gain Risk Factors in Adults

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The COVID-19 pandemic is associated with weight gain in certain individuals. This review highlights the risk factors for weight gain during COVID-19 self-quarantine in adults.

RECENT FINDINGS

Among those who have gained weight during COVID-19 self-quarantine, self-reported body weight has increased between .5 and 1.8 kg (± 2.8 kg) after just 2 months of quarantine. Identified risk factors for weight gain during COVID-19 self-quarantine are the following: increased sedentary behaviors, decreased physical activity, increased snacking frequency (particularly after dinner), increased alcohol intake, decreased water intake, emotional eating, decreased sleep quality, and being overweight/obese. Having identified risk factors for weight gain during the COVID-19 pandemic, practitioners and researchers should devise plans to assist those who have gained weight to re-learn weight management/weight loss strategies.

Cytokine storm and histopathological findings in 60 cases of COVID-19-related death: from viral load research to immunohistochemical quantification of major players IL-1β, IL-6, IL-15 and TNF-α

This study involves the histological analysis of samples taken during autopsies in cases of COVID-19 related death to evaluate the inflammatory cytokine response and the tissue localization of the virus in various organs. In all the selected cases, SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR on swabs collected from the upper (nasopharynx and oropharynx) and/or the lower respiratory (trachea and primary bronchi) tracts were positive. Tissue localization of SARS-CoV-2 was detected using antibodies against the nucleoprotein and the spike protein. Overall, we tested the hypothesis that the overexpression of proinflammatory cytokines plays an important role in the development of COVID-19-associated pneumonia by estimating the expression of multiple cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6, IL-10, IL-15, TNF-α, and MCP-1), inflammatory cells (CD4, CD8, CD20, and CD45), and fibrinogen. Immunohistochemical staining showed that endothelial cells expressed IL-1β in lung samples obtained from the COVID-19 group (p < 0.001). Similarly, alveolar capillary endothelial cells showed strong and diffuse immunoreactivity for IL-6 and IL-15 in the COVID-19 group (p < 0.001). TNF-α showed a higher immunoreactivity in the COVID-19 group than in the control group (p < 0.001). CD8 + T cells where more numerous in the lung samples obtained from the COVID-19 group (p < 0.001). Current evidence suggests that a cytokine storm is the major cause of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and multiple organ failure and is consistently linked with fatal outcomes.

Efficacy of Government Responses to COVID-19 in Mediterranean Countries

Objective

This article aims to provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of the governments' policy measures in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the Mediterranean countries.

Methods

We considered five categories of response: lockdowns, social distancing, movement restrictions, public health measures, and governance and socio-economic measures. Our main research question is, How long do these measures take to become effective? Our analysis, by longitudinal regressions and panel count data analyses, focuses on one region-the Mediterranean countries-to avoid differences, such as cultural factors, that may influence the evolution of the viral pandemic. We start by investigating heteroscedasticity, and both serial and contemporaneous correlation of the disturbance term across cross-sectional countries.

Results

Our different estimation methods paint very similar trajectories of the efficacy of governments' response measures. The benefits of these measures increase exponentially with time. We find that the net effects can be divided into three phases. In the first week, the benefits are not guaranteed unless the total number of contamination cases is less than some threshold values, ie if the spread of the virus is not already advanced. Then, indirect effects are revealed. After three weeks, we observe a reduction in the number of the new confirmed viral cases and, thus, the direct net benefits are observed.

Conclusion

The earlier governments act, in relation to the evolution of the epidemic, the lower the total cumulative incidence due to the epidemic wave.

Wuhan's experience in curbing the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19)

BACKGROUND

Since December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has affected over 50 000 people in Wuhan, China. However, the number of daily infection cases, hospitalization rate, lag time from onset to diagnosis date and their associations with measures introduced to slow down the spread of COVID-19 have not been fully explored.

METHODS

This study recruited 6872 COVID-19 patients in the Wuchang district, Wuhan. All of the patients had an onset date from 21 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. The overall and weekly hospitalization rate and lag time from onset to diagnosis date were calculated. The number of daily infections was estimated by the back-projection method based on the number of daily onset cases. Their association with major government reactions and measures was analyzed narratively.

RESULTS

The overall hospitalization rate was 45.9% (95% CI 44.7 to 47.1%) and the mean lag time from onset to diagnosis was 11.1±7.4 d. The estimated infection curve was constructed for the period from 14 December 2019 to 23 February 2020. Raising public awareness regarding self-protecting and social distancing, as well as the provision of timely testing and inpatient services, were coincident with the decline in the daily number of infections.

CONCLUSION

Early public awareness, early identification and early quarantine, supported by appropriate infrastructure, are important elements for containing the spread of COVID-19 in the community.

Co-Housing Response to Social Isolation of COVID-19 Outbreak, with a Focus on Gender Implications

COVID-19 forced billions of people to restructure their daily lives and social habits. Several research projects have focused on social impacts, approaching the phenomenon on the basis of different issues and scales. This work studies the changes in social relations within the well-defined urban-territorial elements of co-housing communities. The peculiarity of this research lies in the essence of these communities, which base their existence on the spirit of sharing spaces and activities. As social distancing represented the only effective way to control the outbreak, the research studied how the rules of social distancing impacted these communities. For this reason, a questionnaire was sent to 60 communities asking them to highlight the changes that the emergency imposed on the members in their daily life and in the organization of common activities and spaces. A total of 147 responses were received and some relevant design considerations emerged: (1) the importance of feeling part of a “safe” community, with members who were known and deemed reliable, when facing a health emergency; and (2) the importance of open spaces to carry out shared activities. Overall, living in co-housing communities was evaluated as an “extremely positive circumstance” despite the fact that the emergency worsened socialization.

Investigating Dynamics of COVID-19 Spread and Containment with Agent-Based Modeling

Governments, policy makers, and officials around the globe are working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic by making decisions that strive to save the most lives and impose the least economic costs. Making these decisions require comprehensive understanding of the dynamics by which the disease spreads. In traditional epidemiological models, individuals do not adapt their contact behavior during an epidemic, yet adaptive behavior is well documented (i.e., fear-induced social distancing). In this work we revisit Epstein’s “coupled contagion dynamics of fear and disease” model in order to extend and adapt it to explore fear-driven behavioral adaptations and their impact on efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. The inclusion of contact behavior adaptation endows the resulting model with a rich dynamics that under certain conditions reproduce endogenously multiple waves of infection. We show that the model provides an appropriate test bed for different containment strategies such as: testing with contact tracing and travel restrictions. The results show that while both strategies could result in flattening the epidemic curve and a significant reduction of the maximum number of infected individuals; testing should be applied along with tracing previous contacts of the tested individuals to be effective. The results show how the curve is flattened with testing partnered with contact tracing, and the imposition of travel restrictions.

Intention-Based Critical Factors Affecting Willingness to Adopt Novel Coronavirus Prevention in Pakistan: Implications for Future Pandemics

Since human beings have a long tradition of coexistence with pandemics, which may profoundly impact them, adopting preventive measures is crucial for humankind's survival. This study explores the intention-based critical factors affecting the willingness of individuals to adopt pandemic prevention. To this end, a representative sample of 931 Pakistanis filled in an online questionnaire. However, only 828 questionnaires were found to be complete and valid for path modeling analysis. The core findings are as follows: Firstly, peer groups' beliefs, self-efficacy, perceived risk, pandemic knowledge, ease of pandemic prevention adoption, and risk-averse behavior are revealed as driving forces of the individuals' willingness to adopt pandemic prevention. Contrastingly, a lack of trust in political will and mythical attitude towards pandemics are uncovered as inhibitors. Nevertheless, moral values depict a neutral role. Secondly, the peer groups' beliefs are highest ranked, followed by the lack of trust in political will and a mythical attitude towards pandemic prevention. Finally, moral values are determined as the lowest-ranked critical factor. Based on these results, the government should promote awareness campaigns on lethality and fatality of the pandemic at both centralized and decentralized levels to win people's trust at the grass-roots level and overcome the mythical attitude of individuals at all societal levels. Besides, access to personal protective gears should be made feasible since an easier pandemic prevention adoption would increase the individuals' willingness to adopt such preventative measures.

Identifying Key Variables on the Way to Wellbeing in the Transition from Face-to-Face to Online Higher Education due to COVID-19: Evidence from the Q-Sort Technique

This paper reports perceptions of higher education lecturers who switched from classical face-to-face teaching to online teaching due to the unexpected circumstances caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on a validated theoretical model about the roles of instructors in online settings, the authors document the perceptions of experienced face-to-face lecturers regarding their performance in online roles and the perceived importance of the formal and informal support they received during the process of adapting to a sudden online context. The study was based on the Q-sort methodology. Among other conclusions, our research reveals that the best performance we elicited pertained to the technical role, followed by the managerial role and the support received through informal channels. Worryingly, the worst performance pertained to promoting life skills. This finding is especially alarming considering both the UNESCO humanistic vision of universities as promoters of university community development and wellbeing and SDG 4.7 of Agenda 2030, which states that education should ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development through education on sustainable development and lifestyles. This article is meant to provide guidelines to traditional universities to help them overcome weaknesses and enhance strengths when switching to online learning.

Epidemiological characteristics and outcomes of COVID-19 cases: mortality inequalities by socio-economic status, Barcelona, Spain, 24 February to 4 May 2020

Background

Population-based studies characterising outcomes of COVID-19 in European settings are limited, and effects of socio-economic status (SES) on outcomes have not been widely investigated.

Aim

We describe the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases, highlighting incidence and mortality rate differences across SES during the first wave in Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain.

Methods

This population-based study reports individual-level data of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases diagnosed from 24 February to 4 May 2020, notified to the Public Health Agency of Barcelona and followed until 15 June 2020. We analysed end-of-study vital status and the effects of chronic conditions on mortality using logistic regression. Geocoded addresses were linked to basic health area SES data, estimated using the composed socio-economic index. We estimated age-standardised incidence, hospitalisation, and mortality rates by SES.

Results

Of 15,554 COVID-19-confirmed cases, the majority were women (n = 9,028; 58%), median age was 63 years (interquartile range: 46–83), 8,046 (54%) required hospitalisation, and 2,287 (15%) cases died. Prevalence of chronic conditions varied across SES, and multiple chronic conditions increased risk of death (≥ 3, adjusted odds ratio: 2.3). Age-standardised rates (incidence, hospitalisation, mortality) were highest in the most deprived SES quartile (incidence: 1,011 (95% confidence interval (CI): 975–1,047); hospitalisation: 619 (95% CI: 591–648); mortality: 150 (95% CI: 136–165)) and lowest in the most affluent (incidence: 784 (95% CI: 759–809); hospitalisation: 400 (95% CI: 382–418); mortality: 121 (95% CI: 112–131)).

Conclusions

COVID-19 outcomes varied markedly across SES, underscoring the need to implement effective preventive strategies for vulnerable populations.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Physical and Mental Health in China and Spain: Cross-sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Differences in physical and mental health impact across continents during the COVID-19 pandemic are unknown.

OBJECTIVE

This study compared the levels of impact of COVID-19 on mental health among people from Spain and China and correlated mental health parameters with variables relating to symptoms similar to COVID-19, COVID-19 knowledge, and precautionary measures.

METHODS

We collected information on demographic data, physical symptoms, contact history with persons with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, COVID-19 knowledge, and precautionary measures. Participants completed the Impact of Event Scale-Revised (IES-R) and the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 Items (DASS-21). To analyze the differences in the mental health parameters, the mean scores between Chinese and Spanish respondents were compared using the independent samples t test. The differences in categorical variables between the two samples were analyzed by the chi-square test. Linear regression was used to calculate the univariate associations between the independent variables and mental health parameters for both groups separately, with adjustments made for age, gender, and education.

RESULTS

A total of 1528 participants (Spain: n=687; China: n=841) were recruited. The mean age of the Chinese respondents was 24.73 years (SD 7.60; range 18-65 years), and the mean age of the Spanish respondents was 43.06 years (SD 11.95; range 18-76 years). Spanish participants reported significantly more symptoms similar to COVID-19 infection (eg, fever, sore throat, and breathing difficulties), contact history with COVID-19, higher perceived risk of contracting COVID-19, frequent use of medical services, and less confidence in medical services compared with their Chinese counterparts (P<.001). Spanish participants reported significantly higher DASS-21 stress and depression scores, while Chinese participants reported significantly higher IES-R scores (P<.001). Chinese participants encountered more discrimination from other countries (P<.001). Significantly more Chinese participants reported using face masks than Spanish ones (P<.001). More exposure to health information was associated with adverse mental health in Spain (depression: P=.02; anxiety: P=.02; stress: P=.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study found that Spanish respondents reported higher levels of stress and depression as well as more symptoms and use of medical services. In preparation for the next pandemic, Spain needs to establish a prompt policy to implement rapid response and enhance medical services to safeguard physical and mental health.

Are countries' precautionary actions against COVID-19 effective? An assessment study of 175 countries worldwide

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has affected many countries negatively, particularly in terms of their health care and financial systems. Numerous countries have attempted to employ precautions to address this pandemic. This study was aimed at exploring and assessing the early precautionary actions taken by 175 countries on six continents to prevent the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

METHODS

An observational study utilizing available public data was conducted on the basis of data collected from December 31, 2019 until the end of April 2020 and then compared with data in January 2021. Several data were extracted, including information related to the date of the first reported case of SARS-CoV-2, total confirmed cases, total active cases and more. In addition, seven validated indicators were used to assess the countries' preparedness and precautionary actions.

RESULTS

A total of 175 countries were included in the study. The total COVID-19 infection rate increased exponentially and rapidly in North America and Europe from March to April. The application of precautions (indicators) varied between countries. School closures, quarantines and curfews were the most-applied indicators among all countries. As for the relationship between the indicators and their effects on the infection rate, Italy and Spain were the top countries in Europe and adopted all the indicators. Nevertheless, they faced high infection rates: 239,639 and 205,463 COVID-19 cases in Spain and Italy, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The precautionary actions might have played a role in limiting the spread of COVID-19 in several countries. However, many countries might not benefit from applying these indicators.

Adaptive Floor Cleaning Strategy by Human Density Surveillance Mapping with a Reconfigurable Multi-Purpose Service Robot

Professional cleaning and safe social distance monitoring are often considered as demanding, time-consuming, repetitive, and labor-intensive tasks with the risk of getting exposed to the virus. Safe social distance monitoring and cleaning are emerging problems solved through robotics solutions. This research aims to develop a safe social distance surveillance system on an intra-reconfigurable robot with a multi-robot cleaning system for large population environments, like office buildings, hospitals, or shopping malls. We propose an adaptive multi-robot cleaning strategy based on zig-zag-based coverage path planning that works in synergy with the human interaction heat map generated by safe social distance monitoring systems. We further validate the proposed adaptive velocity model's efficiency for the multi-robot cleaning systems regarding time consumption and energy saved. The proposed method using sigmoid-based non-linear function has shown superior performance with 14.1 percent faster and energy consumption of 11.8 percent less than conventional cleaning methods.

Application of Artificial Intelligence-Based Regression Methods in the Problem of COVID-19 Spread Prediction: A Systematic Review

COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges humanity has faced recently, forcing a change in the daily lives of billions of people worldwide. Therefore, many efforts have been made by researchers across the globe in the attempt of determining the models of COVID-19 spread. The objectives of this review are to analyze some of the open-access datasets mostly used in research in the field of COVID-19 regression modeling as well as present current literature based on Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods for regression tasks, like disease spread. Moreover, we discuss the applicability of Machine Learning (ML) and Evolutionary Computing (EC) methods that have focused on regressing epidemiology curves of COVID-19, and provide an overview of the usefulness of existing models in specific areas. An electronic literature search of the various databases was conducted to develop a comprehensive review of the latest AI-based approaches for modeling the spread of COVID-19. Finally, a conclusion is drawn from the observation of reviewed papers that AI-based algorithms have a clear application in COVID-19 epidemiological spread modeling and may be a crucial tool in the combat against coming pandemics.

Rethinking and strengthening the Global Health Diplomacy through triangulated nexus between policy makers, scientists and the community in light of COVID-19 global crisis

The COVID-19 pandemic is considerably the biggest global health challenge of this modern era. Spreading across all regions of the world, this corona virus disease has disrupted even some of the most advanced economies and healthcare systems. With an increasing global death toll and no near end in sight, questions on the efficacy of global response mechanisms, including the role and relevancy of global health institutions, have emerged. Using a reflexive content analytic approach, this study sheds light on some of these questions, underscoring the disconnect between science, policymaking, and society. Global health funding approaches; politicization of the pandemic, including political blame gaming; mistrust of government and other institutions; and a lack of robust accountability measures are some of the pandemic response obstacles. However, COVID-19 has also presented an opportunity for a collaboration that may potentially solidify global solidarity. A pandemic response built on strategic global health diplomacy, vaccine diplomacy, and science diplomacy can spur both political and economic benefits, advancing development, health security, and justice. The virus thrives and flourishes in face of political divisions and lack of cooperation. While the current global crisis has exacerbated the existing social injustices in societies, national unity and global solidarity is essential to winning the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.

COVID-19 severity in relation to sociodemographics and vitamin D use

Most COVID-19 cases are treated as outpatients, while the majority of studies on COVID-19 focus on inpatients. Little is known about the self-reporting and self-rating of the disease's symptoms, and the associations of prophylactic use of dietary supplements with COVID-19 severity have not been addressed. The aims of this study are to evaluate COVID-19 severity and to relate them to sociodemographic characteristics and prophylactic dietary supplements. An observational patient-based study conducted through an online questionnaire on recovered COVID-19 patients. The patients were assessed for several severity parameters, sociodemographic parameters, and prophylactic dietary supplement use. A total of 428 patients were evaluated. Age and presence of comorbidities had positive associations with the severity parameters. The severe infection group had the highest proportion of patients stressed about COVID-19 (P < 0.05). Cigarette, but not hookah, smoking was significantly associated with less severe symptoms. Vitamin D negatively predicted disease severity (P < 0.05). In conclusion, stress, age, and presence of comorbidities were the most important positive predictors of COVID-19 severity, while prophylactic vitamin D use and smoking were significant negative predictors. The use of protective measures and other prophylactic dietary supplements was not significantly associated with symptom severity.

Covid-19 Pandemic: Resumption of Orthopedic Care and Medical Education

Covid-19 is a respiratory disease caused by coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) first identified in Wuhan, China (December 2019). The disease rapidly crossed the barrier of countries, continents and spread globally. Non-pharmaceutical measures such as social distancing, face mask, frequent hand washing and use of sanitizer remained the best available option to prevent the spread of disease. OPD, IPD admissions, elective O. Ts were curtailed. Orthopedic care was only limited to emergency and semi-urgent procedures like necrotizing fasciitis, open fracture, and compartment syndrome. These measures were taken to preserve infrastructure and manpower to manage covid-19 pandemic. The children were thought to have a low susceptibility to covid-19 as compared to an adult. Deferring the patient during pandemic has led to high orthopedic disease burden, morbidity and disease-related sequelae, hence elective care must be resumed with modified hospital infrastructure. Resumption of elective/emergent orthopedic care should be slow, phasic and strategic, much similar to unlocking. Cases must be stratified depending on covid status and severity. Dedicated O.Ts with neutral/negative pressure and HEPA filter for covid positive and suspected patients are to be used. All symptomatic and suspected patients should be investigated for covid-19 by RT-PCR, blood counts and CT scan. Regional anaesthesia should be preferred to General anaesthesia. Power drill/saw/burr/pulse lavage should be minimized to avoid aerosol generation. Postoperatively continuous surveillance and monitoring to be done for covid related symptoms. Medical institutes rapidly shifted to the online mode of education. Blended learning (virtual & physical) and imparting skills have to be continued in post covid phase with equitable distribution of teaching hours to students of different years.

Use of wearable sensors to assess compliance of asthmatic children in response to lockdown measures for the COVID-19 epidemic

Between March and April 2020, Cyprus and Greece health authorities enforced three escalated levels of public health interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic. We quantified compliance of 108 asthmatic schoolchildren (53 from Cyprus, 55 from Greece, mean age 9.7 years) from both countries to intervention levels, using wearable sensors to continuously track personal location and physical activity. Changes in 'fraction time spent at home' and 'total steps/day' were assessed with a mixed-effects model adjusting for confounders. We observed significant mean increases in 'fraction time spent at home' in Cyprus and Greece, during each intervention level by 41.4% and 14.3% (level 1), 48.7% and 23.1% (level 2) and 45.2% and 32.0% (level 3), respectively. Physical activity in Cyprus and Greece demonstrated significant mean decreases by - 2,531 and - 1,191 (level 1), - 3,638 and - 2,337 (level 2) and - 3,644 and - 1,961 (level 3) total steps/day, respectively. Significant independent effects of weekends and age were found on 'fraction time spent at home'. Similarly, weekends, age, humidity and gender had an independent effect on physical activity. We suggest that wearable technology provides objective, continuous, real-time location and activity data making possible to inform in a timely manner public health officials on compliance to various tiers of public health interventions during a pandemic.

Do unemployment benefits and economic aids to pay electricity bills remove the energy poverty risk of Spanish family units during lockdown? A study of COVID-19-induced lockdown

The COVID-19 pandemic has triggered serious economic crises in many countries. In Spain, millions of individuals have been ordered to remain at home and many are unemployed. The increased use of electrical appliances and low incomes make energy poverty highly likely. This study thus analyses the effectiveness of unemployment benefits and social measures to help Spanish family units pay their electricity bill during the COVID-19-induced lockdown in Spain (March-May 2020) and during a hypothetical lockdown in winter and summer. The results showed that the unemployment aids can contribute to alleviating energy poverty, especially if the unemployed individual worked in a poorly-paying job or for just a few hours. However, the social measures were found insufficient to avoid energy poverty. The application of a variable discount percentage in the electricity bill based on income and the month of the year would reduce energy poverty risk during further incidences of lockdown.

Exploring the impacts of travel-implied policy factors on COVID-19 spread within communities based on multi-source data interpretations

The global Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to the implementation of social distancing measures such as work-from-home orders that have drastically changed people's travel-related behavior. As countries are easing up these measures and people are resuming their pre-pandemic activities, the second wave of COVID-19 is observed in many countries. This study proposes a Community Activity Score (CAS) based on inter-community traffic characteristics (in and out of community traffic volume and travel distance) to capture the current travel-related activity level compared to the pre-pandemic baseline and study its relationship with confirmed COVID-19 cases. Fourteen other travel-related factors belonging to five categories (Social Distancing Index, residents staying at home, travel frequency and distance, mobility trend, and out-of-county visitors) and three social distancing measures (stay-at-home order, face-covering order, and self-quarantine for out-of-county travels) are also considered to reflect the likelihood of exposure to the COVID-19. Considering that it usually takes days from exposure to confirming the infection, the exposure-to-confirm temporal delay between the time-varying travel-related factors and their impacts on the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases is considered in this study. Honolulu County in the State of Hawaii is used as a case study to evaluate the proposed CAS and other factors on confirmed COVID-19 cases with various temporal delays at a county-level. Negative Binomial models were chosen to study the impacts of travel-related factors and social distancing measures on COVID-19 cases. The case study results show that CAS and other factors are correlated with COVID-19 spread, and models that factor in the exposure-to-confirm temporal delay perform better in forecasting COVID-19 cases later. Policymakers can use the study's various findings and insights to evaluate the impacts of social distancing policies on travel and effectively allocate resources for the possible increase in confirmed COVID-19 cases.

Intraregional propagation of Covid-19 cases in Pará, Brazil: assessment of isolation regime to lockdown

Due to the high incidence of COVID-19 case numbers internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of global relevance, advising countries to follow protocols to combat pandemic advance through actions that can reduce spread and consequently avoid a collapse in the local health system. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of the evolution of new community cases, and mortality records of COVID-19 in the State of Pará, which has a subtropical climate with temperatures between 20 and 35 °C, after the implementation of social distancing by quarantine and adoption of lockdown. The follow-up was carried out by the daily data from the technical bulletins provided by the State of Pará Public Health Secretary (SESPA). On 18 March 2020, Pará notified the first case of COVID-19. After 7 weeks, the number of confirmed cases reached 4756 with 375 deaths. The results show it took 49 days for 81% of the 144 states municipalities, distributed over an area of approximately 1 248 000 km² to register COVID-19 cases. Temperature variations between 24.5 and 33.1 °C did not promote the decline in the new infections curve. The association between social isolation, quarantine and lockdown as an action to contain the infection was effective in reducing the region's new cases registration of COVID-19 in the short-term. However, short periods of lockdown may have promoted the virus spread among peripheral municipalities of the capital, as well as to inland regions.

Analysis of lockdown for CoViD-19 impact on NO2 in London, Milan and Paris: What lesson can be learnt?

Nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) can have harmful effects on human health and can act as a precursor for the formation of other air pollutants in urban environment such as secondary PM_2.5 and ozone. The lockdown measures for CoViD-19 allowed to simulate on a large scale the massive and prolonged reduction of road traffic (the main source for NO₂ in urban environment). This work aims to selectively assess the maximum impact that total traffic blocking measures can have on NO₂. For this reason, three megacities (London, Milan and Paris) were chosen which had similar characteristics in terms of climatic conditions, population, policies of urban traffic management and lockdown measures. 52 air quality control units have been used to compare data measured in lockdown and in the same periods of previous years, highlighting a significant decrease in NO₂ concentration due to traffic (London: 71.1 % - 80.8 %; Milan: 8.6 % - 42.4 %; Paris: 65.7 % - 79.8 %). In 2020 the contribution of traffic in London, Milan and Paris dropped to 3.3 ± 1.3 μg m^-3, 6.1 ± 0.8 μg m^-3, and 13.4 ± 1.5 μg m^-3, respectively. Despite the significant reduction in the NO₂ concentration, in UT stations average NO₂ concentrations higher than 40 μg m^-3 were registered for several days. In order to reduce the pollution, the limitation of road traffic could be not enough, but a vision also aimed at rethink the vehicles and their polluting effects should be developed.

An integrative look at SARS‑CoV‑2 (Review)

SARS‑CoV‑2 is a newly discovered member of the betacoronaviruses and the etiological agent of the disease COVID‑19. SARS‑CoV‑2 is responsible for the worldwide pandemic which has been taking place in 2020, and is causing a markedly higher number of infections and deaths compared to previous coronaviruses, such as SARS‑CoV or MERS‑CoV. Based on updated scientific literature, the present review compiles the most relevant knowledge of SARS‑CoV‑2, COVID‑19 and the clinical and typical responses that patients have exhibited against this virus, discussing current and future therapies, and proposing strategies with which to combat the disease and prevent a further global threat. The aggressiveness of SARS‑CoV‑2 arises from its capacity to infect, and spread easily and rapidly through its tight interaction with the human angiotensin‑converting enzyme 2 (ACE‑2) receptor. While not all patients respond in a similar manner and may even be asymptomatic, a wide range of manifestations associated with COVID‑19 have been described, particularly in vulnerable population groups, such as the elderly or individuals with other underlying conditions. The proper function of the immune system plays a key role in an individual's favorable response to SARS‑CoV‑2 infection. A hyperactivated response, on the contrary, could account for the more severe cases of COVID‑19, and this may finally lead to respiratory insufficiency and other complications, such as thrombotic or thromboembolic events. The development of novel therapies and vaccines designed to control and regulate a proper immune system response will be key to clinical management, prevention measures and effective population screening to attenuate the transmission of this novel RNA virus.