Resource acquisition and reproductive strategies of tropical forest in response to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation

Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.

Tree Diversity Increases Carbon Stocks and Fluxes Above-But Not Belowground in a Tropical Forest Experiment

International commitments advocate large-scale forest restoration as a nature-based solution to climate change mitigation through carbon (C) sequestration. Mounting evidence suggests that mixed compared to monospecific planted forests may sequester more C, exhibit lower susceptibility to climate extremes and offer a broader range of ecosystem services. However, experimental studies comprehensively examining the control of tree diversity on multiple C stocks and fluxes above- and belowground are lacking. To address this gap, we leverage data from the Sardinilla experiment in Panama, the oldest tropical tree diversity experiment, which features a gradient of one-, two-, three- and five-species mixtures of native tree species. Over 16 years, we measured multiple above- and belowground C stocks and fluxes, ranging from tree aboveground C, over leaf litter C production, to soil organic carbon (SOC). We show that tree diversity significantly increased aboveground C stocks and fluxes, with a 57% higher gain in aboveground tree C in five-species mixtures compared to monocultures (35.7 ± 1.8 vs. 22.8 ± 3.4 Mg C ha-1) 16 years after planting. In contrast, we observed a net reduction in SOC (on average -11.2 ± 1.1 Mg C ha-1 across diversity levels) and no significant difference in SOC3 stocks (the predominantly tree-derived, i.e., C3 plant-derived SOC fraction) between five-species mixtures and monocultures (13.0 ± 0.9 vs. 15.1 ± 1.3 Mg C ha-1). Positive tree diversity effects persisted despite repeated climate extremes and strengthened over time for aboveground tree growth. Structural equation models showed that higher tree growth in mixtures enhanced leaf litter and coarse woody debris C fluxes to the soil, resulting in a tightly linked C cycle aboveground. However, we did not observe significant links between above- and belowground C stocks and fluxes. Our study elucidates the mechanisms through which higher tree diversity bolsters the climate mitigation potential of tropical forest restoration. Restoration schemes should prioritize mixed over monospecific planted forests.

Population trends of insect pollinators in a species-rich tropical rainforest: stable trends but contrasting patterns across taxa

Recent reports of insect decline have raised concerns regarding population responses of ecologically important groups, such as insect pollinators. Additionally, how population trends vary across pollinator taxonomic groups and degree of specialization is unclear. Here, we analyse 14 years of abundance data (2009-2022) for 38 species of native insect pollinators, including a range of Coleoptera, Lepidoptera and Hymenoptera specialists and generalists from the tropical rainforest of Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We estimated population trends across taxonomic groups to determine whether specialist species with a narrower range of interacting mutualistic partners are experiencing steeper population declines under environmental change. We also examined the relationship between climate variables and pollinator abundance over time to determine whether differences in sensitivity to climate predict differences in population trends among pollinator species. Our analyses indicated that most pollinator populations were stable or increasing, with few species showing evidence of decline, regardless of their degree of specialization. Differences in climate sensitivity varied among pollinator species but were not associated with population trends, suggesting other environmental factors at play for tropical insect pollinators. These results highlight the need for long-term population data from diverse tropical taxa to better assess the environmental determinants of insect pollinator trends.

Water deficit and storm disturbances co-regulate Amazon rainforest seasonality

Canopy leaf abundance of Amazon rainforests increases in the dry season but decreases in the wet season, contrary to earlier expectations of water stress adversely affecting plant functions. Drivers of this seasonality, particularly the role of water availability, remain debated. We introduce satellite-based ecophysiological indicators to demonstrate that Amazon rainforests are constrained by water during dry seasons despite light-driven canopy greening. Evidence includes a shifted partitioning of photosynthetically active radiation toward more isoprene emissions and synchronized declines in leaf and xylem water potentials. In addition, we find that convective storms attenuate light-driven ecosystem greening in the late dry season and then reverse to net leaf loss in the wet season, improving rainforest leaf area predictability by 24 to 31%. These findings highlight the susceptibility of Amazon rainforests to increasing risks of drought and windthrow disturbances under warming.

20th-Century hurricanes leave long-lasting legacies on tropical forest height and the abundance of a dominant wind-resistant palm

Projected increases in hurricane intensity under a warming climate will have profound effects on many forest ecosystems. One key challenge is to disentangle the effects of wind damage from the myriad factors that influence forest structure and species distributions over large spatial scales. Here, we employ a novel machine learning framework with high-resolution aerial photos, and LiDAR collected over 115 km2 of El Yunque National Forest in Puerto Rico to examine the effects of topographic exposure to two hurricanes, Hugo (1989) and Georges (1998), and several landscape-scale environmental factors on the current forest height and abundance of a dominant, wind-resistant species, the palm Prestoea acuminata var. montana. Model predictions show that the average density of the palm was 32% greater while the canopy height was 20% shorter in forests exposed to the two storms relative to unexposed areas. Our results demonstrate that hurricanes have lasting effects on forest canopy height and composition, suggesting the expected increase in hurricane severity with a warming climate will alter coastal forests in the North Atlantic.

Increased impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment

There are broad effects of vegetation changes on regional climate, carbon budget, the water cycle, and ecosystems' productivity. Therefore, further knowledge of the drivers of future vegetation changes is critical to mitigate the influences of global warming. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major mode of interannual climate variability and is likely to affect vegetation on the global scale. Nonetheless, little is known about the causal impacts of ENSO on future vegetation cover with changes in land use and a warming environment. Here, we examined the connections between ENSO and vegetation using leaf area index (LAI) data over the period 2015-2100 from Coupled Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Our findings indicate that, compared with the historical period 1915-2000, the vegetated areas influenced by ENSO are projected to rise by approximately 55.2% and 20.7% during the twenty-first century of the scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Though uncertainty for the causal link between ENSO and vegetation changes remains in several regions (i.e., parts of North America, southern Australia, and western Asia), ENSO signature on LAI variations is robust over northern Australia, Amazonia, and parts of Southeast Asia. These results indicate that the influences of ENSO on global vegetation may strengthen in the future.

A simulated heat wave-but not herbicide exposure-alters resource investment strategy in an insect

Animals are increasingly exposed to potential stressors related to environmental change, and multiple stressors may alter the dynamics by which animals acquire resources and invest those resources into important life-history traits. Stress may lead to the prioritization of current reproduction to maximize lifetime reproduction (i.e., terminal investment [TI]) or, in contrast, prioritize somatic investment over current reproduction to facilitate future reproductive opportunities (i.e., reproductive restraint [RR]). Tests of the TI and RR hypotheses typically use immune challenges as stressors, and have not been explicitly tested in the context of environmental change even though warming influences resource allocation patterns across taxa. Further, the multiple-stressor framework has been a useful construct to clarify the costs of complex environmental shifts to animals, but it has not been leveraged to understand such effects on investment strategy. Thus, we tested the TI and RR hypotheses by manipulating widespread features of environmental change-glyphosate-based herbicide (GBH; Roundup®) exposure and a simulated heat wave-in the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps). A simulated heat wave affected the life-history tradeoff between investment into reproduction and soma. Specifically, heat wave prioritized investment into ovary mass over non-reproductive tissue, even after accounting for food consumption, in support of the TI hypothesis. In contrast, GBH exposure did not affect any measured trait, and crickets did not discriminate between tap water and GBH solution during drinking. Therefore, some-but not all-aspects of environmental change may alter resource investment strategies in animals. We encourage continued integration of the multiple-stressor framework and life-history theory to better understand how animals respond to their rapidly changing environments.

Plant water use theory should incorporate hypotheses about extreme environments, population ecology, and community ecology

Plant water use theory has largely been developed within a plant-performance paradigm that conceptualizes water use in terms of value for carbon gain and that sits within a neoclassical economic framework. This theory works very well in many contexts but does not consider other values of water to plants that could impact their fitness. Here, we survey a range of alternative hypotheses for drivers of water use and stomatal regulation. These hypotheses are organized around relevance to extreme environments, population ecology, and community ecology. Most of these hypotheses are not yet empirically tested and some are controversial (e.g. requiring more agency and behavior than is commonly believed possible for plants). Some hypotheses, especially those focused around using water to avoid thermal stress, using water to promote reproduction instead of growth, and using water to hoard it, may be useful to incorporate into theory or to implement in Earth System Models.

Habitats modulate influencing factors shaping the spatial distribution of bacterial communities along a Tibetan Plateau riverine wetland

The Tibetan Plateau riverine wetland is very sensitive to global climate change. Understanding the mechanisms that maintain the spatial patterns of bacterial communities provides insight into the dominant biogeochemical processes within the plateau riverine wetlands. Nonetheless, the spatial distribution of bacterial communities along these wetlands has rarely been explored. We investigated the spatial patterns of bacterial community within rhizosphere soil, bulk soil, and sediment samples collected along the Yarlung Tsangpo riverine wetland (YTRW), the longest plateau riverine wetland in China. Our results indicated that the diversity of bacterial communities in all three habitats increased significantly along the YTRW. The slope of the linear relationship between distance and bacterial community diversity in sediment was steeper than those for bulk and rhizosphere soils. Furthermore, bacterial communities in all three habitats showed significant distance-decay relationships. A combination of historical factors (geographical distance and climatic factors) and contemporary environmental heterogeneity (edaphic properties) controlled spatial distributions of bacterial communities in all three habitats, although climatic factors were predominant. Climatic factors affected rhizosphere bacterial communities more than those in bulk soil and sediment. Co-occurrence network analysis revealed that the potential interactions between bacterial taxa may decrease along the YTRW. This field investigation highlighted that the climatic factors strongly influenced the spatial distribution of bacterial communities along the YTRW; however, habitat differences among rhizosphere soil, bulk soil, and sediment samples affected the relative importance of climatic factors on spatial distributions of the associated bacterial communities. These findings would improve the understanding of biogeochemical processes in these typical habitats and potential alterations provoked by climate change.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects the species-level temporal variation in seed and leaf fall in a mixed temperate forest

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the variation between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm conditions (El Niño), is one of the most prominent large-scale climate patterns with worldwide effects. Elevated seed and leaf fall has been found at the positive phase of ENSO (El Niño) in tropical forests. However, how seed and leaf fall respond to ENSO at species level is understudied, especially in temperate forests. In this study, we monitored seed and leaf fall at the species-level at 150 points across a 25-ha temperate forest in northeastern China over a span of 12 years. Using time series and wavelet analyses, we assessed three hypotheses: 1) temperate tree species' seed and leaf fall are strongly, but differently, correlated with ENSO and, 2) community synchrony in seed and leaf occurred both at seasonal and ENSO scales; finally, 3) local climatic modulated the effects of ENSO on seed and leaf fall. We found that ENSO was significantly correlated with seed and leaf fall of all species, although correlation strength varied across species (r = 0.206-0.658). Specifically, ENSO indices (ENSO12 or ENSO34) accounted for the most variation in seed and leaf fall of Acer pseudo-sieboldianum (40 % and 34 %, respectively) and ranged 4 %-31 % in all other species. Leaf fall was synchronous with ENSO cycles with a period of 2-7 years, but community synchrony of seed fall was only detected at seasonal scales. ENSO influenced seed fall of Fraxinus mandshurica and Tilla amurensis by mediating rainfall and relative humidity, respectively, highlighting the interactive effects of local climate and ENSO. Our findings highlight the potential effects of ENSO on ecosystems outside of tropical regions and improve our ability to predict regeneration dynamics and nutrient cycling of temperate forests under the context of global change.

New directions in tropical phenology

Earth's most speciose biomes are in the tropics, yet tropical plant phenology remains poorly understood. Tropical phenological data are comparatively scarce and viewed through the lens of a 'temperate phenological paradigm' expecting phenological traits to respond to strong, predictably annual shifts in climate (e.g., between subfreezing and frost-free periods). Digitized herbarium data greatly expand existing phenological data for tropical plants; and circular data, statistics, and models are more appropriate for analyzing tropical (and temperate) phenological datasets. Phylogenetic information, which remains seldom applied in phenological investigations, provides new insights into phenological responses of large groups of related species to climate. Consistent combined use of herbarium data, circular statistical distributions, and robust phylogenies will rapidly advance our understanding of tropical - and temperate - phenology.

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.

More winners than losers over 12 years of monitoring tiger moths (Erebidae: Arctiinae) on Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Understanding the causes and consequences of insect declines has become an important goal in ecology, particularly in the tropics, where most terrestrial diversity exists. Over the past 12 years, the ForestGEO Arthropod Initiative has systematically monitored multiple insect groups on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, providing baseline data for assessing long-term population trends. Here, we estimate the rates of change in abundance among 96 tiger moth species on BCI. Population trends of most species were stable (n = 20) or increasing (n = 62), with few (n = 14) declining species. Our analysis of morphological and climatic sensitivity traits associated with population trends shows that species-specific responses to climate were most strongly linked with trends. Specifically, tiger moth species that are more abundant in warmer and wetter years are more likely to show population increases. Our study contrasts with recent findings indicating insect decline in tropical and temperate regions. These results highlight the significant role of biotic responses to climate in determining long-term population trends and suggest that future climate changes are likely to impact tropical insect communities.

Responses of tree growth and biomass production to nutrient addition in a semi-deciduous tropical forest in Africa

Experimental evidence of nutrient limitations on primary productivity in Afrotropical forests is rare and globally underrepresented, yet are crucial for understanding constraints to terrestrial carbon uptake. In an ecosystem-scale nutrient manipulation experiment, we assessed the early responses of tree growth rates among different tree sizes, taxonomic species and at a community level in a humid tropical forest in Uganda. Following a full factorial design, we established 32 (eight treatments × four replicates) experimental plots of 40 m × 40 m each. We added nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), their combinations (NP, NK, PK, and NPK) and control at the rates of 125 kg N.ha^-1 .yr^-1 , 50 kg P.ha^-1 .yr^-1 and 50 kg K.ha^-1 .yr^-1 , split into four equal applications, and measured stem growth of more than 15,000 trees with diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 1 cm. After two years, the response of tree stem growth to nutrient additions was dependent on tree sizes, species and leaf habit but not community-wide. First, tree stem growth increased under N additions, primarily among medium-sized trees (10-30 cm DBH), and in trees of Lasiodiscus mildbraedii in the second year of the experiment. Second, K limitation was evident in semi-deciduous trees, which increased stem growth by 46% in +K than -K treatments, following a strong, prolonged dry season during the first year of the experiment. This highlights the key role of K in stomatal regulation and maintenance of water balance in trees, particularly under water-stressed conditions. Third, the role of P in promoting tree growth and carbon accumulation rates in this forest on highly weathered soils was rather not pronounced; nonetheless, mortality among saplings (1-5 cm DBH) was reduced by 30% in +P than in -P treatments. Although stem growth responses to nutrient interaction effects were positive or negative (likely depending on nutrient combinations and climate variability), our results underscore the fact that, in a highly diverse forest ecosystem, multiple nutrients and not one single nutrient regulate tree growth and aboveground carbon uptake due to varying nutrient requirements and acquisition strategies of different tree sizes, species and leaf habits.

JA, Sanchez‐Azofeifa GA, De Deurwaerder HPT, Krishna Moorthy SM, Schnitzer SA, Marvin DC, Longo M, Liu C, Broadbent EN, Almeyda Zambrano AM, Muller‐Landau HC, Detto M, Verbeeck H. Liana optical traits increase tropical forest albedo and reduce ecosystem productivity

Lianas are a key growth form in tropical forests. Their lack of self-supporting tissues and their vertical position on top of the canopy make them strong competitors of resources. A few pioneer studies have shown that liana optical traits differ on average from those of colocated trees. Those trait discrepancies were hypothesized to be responsible for the competitive advantage of lianas over trees. Yet, in the absence of reliable modelling tools, it is impossible to unravel their impact on the forest energy balance, light competition, and on the liana success in Neotropical forests. To bridge this gap, we performed a meta-analysis of the literature to gather all published liana leaf optical spectra, as well as all canopy spectra measured over different levels of liana infestation. We then used a Bayesian data assimilation framework applied to two radiative transfer models (RTMs) covering the leaf and canopy scales to derive tropical tree and liana trait distributions, which finally informed a full dynamic vegetation model. According to the RTMs inversion, lianas grew thinner, more horizontal leaves with lower pigment concentrations. Those traits made the lianas very efficient at light interception and significantly modified the forest energy balance and its carbon cycle. While forest albedo increased by 14% in the shortwave, light availability was reduced in the understorey (-30% of the PAR radiation) and soil temperature decreased by 0.5°C. Those liana-specific traits were also responsible for a significant reduction of tree (-19%) and ecosystem (-7%) gross primary productivity (GPP) while lianas benefited from them (their GPP increased by +27%). This study provides a novel mechanistic explanation to the increase in liana abundance, new evidence of the impact of lianas on forest functioning, and paves the way for the evaluation of the large-scale impacts of lianas on forest biogeochemical cycles.

Modes of climate variability bridge proximate and evolutionary mechanisms of masting

There is evidence that variable and synchronous reproduction in seed plants (masting) correlates to modes of climate variability, e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation. In this perspective, we explore the breadth of knowledge on how climate modes control reproduction in major masting species throughout Earth's biomes. We posit that intrinsic properties of climate modes (periodicity, persistence and trends) drive interannual and decadal variability of plant reproduction, as well as the spatial extent of its synchrony, aligning multiple proximate causes of masting through space and time. Moreover, climate modes force lagged but in-phase ecological processes that interact synergistically with multiple stages of plant reproductive cycles. This sets up adaptive benefits by increasing offspring fitness through either economies of scale or environmental prediction. Community-wide links between climate modes and masting across plant taxa suggest an evolutionary role of climate variability. We argue that climate modes may 'bridge' proximate and ultimate causes of masting selecting for variable and synchronous reproduction. The future of such interaction is uncertain: processes that improve reproductive fitness may remain coupled with climate modes even under changing climates, but chances are that abrupt global warming will affect Earth's climate modes so rapidly as to alter ecological and evolutionary links. This article is part of the theme issue 'The ecology and evolution of synchronized seed production in plants'.

A comprehensive framework for seasonal controls of leaf abscission and productivity in evergreen broadleaved tropical and subtropical forests

Relationships among productivity, leaf phenology, and seasonal variation in moisture and light availability are poorly understood for evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forests, which contribute 25% of terrestrial productivity. On the one hand, as moisture availability declines, trees shed leaves to reduce transpiration and the risk of hydraulic failure. On the other hand, increases in light availability promote the replacement of senescent leaves to increase productivity. Here, we provide a comprehensive framework that relates the seasonality of climate, leaf abscission, and leaf productivity across the evergreen broadleaved tropical/subtropical forest biome. The seasonal correlation between rainfall and light availability varies from strongly negative to strongly positive across the tropics and maps onto the seasonal correlation between litterfall mass and productivity for 68 forests. Where rainfall and light covary positively, litterfall and productivity also covary positively and are always greater in the wetter sunnier season. Where rainfall and light covary negatively, litterfall and productivity are always greater in the drier and sunnier season if moisture supplies remain adequate; otherwise productivity is smaller in the drier sunnier season. This framework will improve the representation of tropical/subtropical forests in Earth system models and suggests how phenology and productivity will change as climate change alters the seasonality of cloud cover and rainfall across tropical/subtropical forests.

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Three climate-phenology regimes are identified across tropical and subtropical forest biomes

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Where light and water limit plant in dry season, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny wet season

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Where light or water alternately limits plant, productivity peaks in wet season with low litterfall

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Where water does not limit plant, litterfall and productivity peak in sunny dry season

Hydraulically-vulnerable trees survive on deep-water access during droughts in a tropical forest

Deep-water access is arguably the most effective, but under-studied, mechanism that plants employ to survive during drought. Vulnerability to embolism and hydraulic safety margins can predict mortality risk at given levels of dehydration, but deep-water access may delay plant dehydration. Here, we tested the role of deep-water access in enabling survival within a diverse tropical forest community in Panama using a novel data-model approach. We inversely estimated the effective rooting depth (ERD, as the average depth of water extraction), for 29 canopy species by linking diameter growth dynamics (1990-2015) to vapor pressure deficit, water potentials in the whole-soil column, and leaf hydraulic vulnerability curves. We validated ERD estimates against existing isotopic data of potential water-access depths. Across species, deeper ERD was associated with higher maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, greater vulnerability to xylem embolism, narrower safety margins, and lower mortality rates during extreme droughts over 35 years (1981-2015) among evergreen species. Species exposure to water stress declined with deeper ERD indicating that trees compensate for water stress-related mortality risk through deep-water access. The role of deep-water access in mitigating mortality of hydraulically-vulnerable trees has important implications for our predictive understanding of forest dynamics under current and future climates.

Baseflow dynamics and multivariate analysis using bivariate and multiple wavelet coherence in an alpine endorheic river basin (Northwest China)

Baseflow is a component of streamflow derived from shallow and deep subsurface flows that is concurrently controlled by multiple factors. Rational estimation of baseflow is critical for understanding its spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors within a river basin. To address this, different filtering parameters were applied to separate the baseflow of the Heihe River Basin (HRB) in Northwest China using digital filtering methods. Moreover, using bivariate and multivariate wavelet coherences, multivariate relationships between baseflow and meteorological factors/large-scale circulation indices were identified for several factors, which explained most of the variations. Results showed annual average baseflow was 10.3-91.1 mm and that the baseflow index (BFI) varied between 0.50 and 0.72 (average: 0.62). This indicates that 62% of long-term streamflow likely originates from groundwater discharge and other delayed sources. Positive/negative Spearman correlation coefficients between baseflow and extreme climate indices were more significant at upstream (Yingluoxia, Liyuanbao-and Wafangcheng) stations in comparison with midstream (Suyukou, Shunhua) and downstream (Yangyangchi) stations. Correlation for the BFI was relatively weaker than for baseflow. Furthermore, bivariate wavelet coherences revealed that precipitation (six stations) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (four stations) were the individual factors that best explained baseflow variations. Multiple wavelet coherence demonstrated that all meteorological factors/large-scale circulation indices had the highest percentage of the numbers of power significant at the 95% significance level that could best explain baseflow variations. However, the average power of wavelet coherence was not increased. Differences likely attributable to consideration of additional variables were diminished by collinearity effects among factors. Furthermore, baseflow at the midstream Zhengyxia and downstream Yangyangchi stations had significant positive and negative correlation with population and effective irrigation area, respectively. The findings indicate that development of regional hydrometeorological models should primarily consider the impact of climate change in the upstream HRB, whereas the effects of both climate change and human activities should be considered in the midstream and downstream HRB.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects the water relations of tree species in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

We evaluated the effect of ENSO 2015/16 on the water relations of eight tree species in seasonally dry tropical forests of the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The functional traits: wood density, relative water content in wood, xylem water potential and specific leaf area were recorded during the rainy season and compared in three consecutive years: 2015 (pre-ENSO conditions), 2016 (ENSO conditions) and 2017 (post-ENSO conditions). We analyzed tree size on the capacity to respond to water deficit, considering young and mature trees, and if this response is distinctive in species with different leaf patterns in seasonally dry tropical forests distributed along a precipitation gradient (700–1200 mm year⁻¹). These traits showed a strong decrease in all species in response to water stress in 2016, mainly in the driest site. Deciduous species had lower wood density, higher predawn water potential and higher specific leaf area than evergreen species. In all cases, mature trees were more tolerant to drought. In the driest site, there was a significant reduction in water status, regardless of their leaf phenology, indicating that seasonally dry tropical forests are highly vulnerable to ENSO. Vulnerability of deciduous species is intensified in the driest areas and in the youngest trees.

Unraveling the relative role of light and water competition between lianas and trees in tropical forests: A vegetation model analysis

Despite their low contribution to forest carbon stocks, lianas (woody vines) play an important role in the carbon dynamics of tropical forests. As structural parasites, they hinder tree survival, growth and fecundity; hence, they negatively impact net ecosystem productivity and long-term carbon sequestration.Competition (for water and light) drives various forest processes and depends on the local abundance of resources over time. However, evaluating the relative role of resource availability on the interactions between lianas and trees from empirical observations is particularly challenging. Previous approaches have used labour-intensive and ecosystem-scale manipulation experiments, which are infeasible in most situations.We propose to circumvent this challenge by evaluating the uncertainty of water and light capture processes of a process-based vegetation model (ED2) including the liana growth form. We further developed the liana plant functional type in ED2 to mechanistically simulate water uptake and transport from roots to leaves, and start the model from prescribed initial conditions. We then used the PEcAn bioinformatics platform to constrain liana parameters and run uncertainty analyses.Baseline runs successfully reproduced ecosystem gas exchange fluxes (gross primary productivity and latent heat) and forest structural features (leaf area index, aboveground biomass) in two sites (Barro Colorado Island, Panama and Paracou, French Guiana) characterized by different rainfall regimes and levels of liana abundance.Model uncertainty analyses revealed that water limitation was the factor driving the competition between trees and lianas at the drier site (BCI), and during the relatively short dry season of the wetter site (Paracou). In young patches, light competition dominated in Paracou but alternated with water competition between the wet and the dry season on BCI according to the model simulations.The modelling workflow also identified key liana traits (photosynthetic quantum efficiency, stomatal regulation parameters, allometric relationships) and processes (water use, respiration, climbing) driving the model uncertainty. They should be considered as priorities for future data acquisition and model development to improve predictions of the carbon dynamics of liana-infested forests. Synthesis. Competition for water plays a larger role in the interaction between lianas and trees than previously hypothesized, as demonstrated by simulations from a process-based vegetation model.

Allometric constraints and competition enable the simulation of size structure and carbon fluxes in a dynamic vegetation model of tropical forests (LM3PPA-TV)

Tropical forests are a key determinant of the functioning of the Earth system, but remain a major source of uncertainty in carbon cycle models and climate change projections. In this study, we present an updated land model (LM3PPA-TV) to improve the representation of tropical forest structure and dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs). The development and parameterization of LM3PPA-TV drew on extensive datasets on tropical tree traits and long-term field censuses from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The model defines a new plant functional type (PFT) based on the characteristics of shade-tolerant, tropical tree species, implements a new growth allocation scheme based on realistic tree allometries, incorporates hydraulic constraints on biomass accumulation, and features a new compartment for tree branches and branch fall dynamics. Simulation experiments reproduced observed diurnal and seasonal patterns in stand-level carbon and water fluxes, as well as mean canopy and understory tree growth rates, tree size distributions, and stand-level biomass on BCI. Simulations at multiple sites captured considerable variation in biomass and size structure across the tropical forest biome, including observed responses to precipitation and temperature. Model experiments suggested a major role of water limitation in controlling geographic variation forest biomass and structure. However, the failure to simulate tropical forests under extreme conditions and the systematic underestimation of forest biomass in Paleotropical locations highlighted the need to incorporate variation in hydraulic traits and multiple PFTs that capture the distinct floristic composition across tropical domains. The continued pressure on tropical forests from global change demands models which are able to simulate alternative successional pathways and their pace to recovery. LM3PPA-TV provides a tool to investigate geographic variation in tropical forests and a benchmark to continue improving the representation of tropical forests dynamics and their carbon storage potential in ESMs.

Effects of Climate Variability on Queen Production and Pollen Preferences of Neotropical Bumblebee Bombus atratus in a High Andean Suburban Condition

Bombus atratus Franklin is a widely distributed bumblebee of South America. In Colombia, this species is recognized for its ability to adapt to highly disturbed habitats. However, knowledge of its ecology is poorly known, in particular conditions to ensure the long-term conservation of its populations. Identification of pollen resources is an important issue that could be used as a tool to manage and conserve bumblebees. In tropical areas, rainfall patterns could affect floral phenology and therefore the availability of pollen resources. Considering this, the present work aimed to establish the effect of extreme weather conditions (El Niño) in pollen availability, use of pollinic sources, and gyne production in B. atratus colonies. We reared and located 14 B. atratus colonies in a suburban area during a dry season (ENSO "El Niño") and a rainy season (ENSO "La Niña"). We registered time to gyne production and numbers of gynes produced per colony. We extracted pollen samples to establish both its floral origin and its relative abundance. We measured floral offer for each season. The data of pollen use per colony were utilized to perform Bipartite networks. We analyzed the production of gynes and pollen use per season with correlation models and generalized linear models. Colonies of the rainy season produced more gynes and faster. The floral diversity and offer were higher during the rainy season. Successful colonies used specific pollen sources in two seasons, independently of the floral offer. Extreme dry season affected development of B. atratus colonies.

Long-term droughts may drive drier tropical forests towards increased functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogeneity

Tropical ecosystems adapted to high water availability may be highly impacted by climatic changes that increase soil and atmospheric moisture deficits. Many tropical regions are experiencing significant changes in climatic conditions, which may induce strong shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of forest communities. However, it remains unclear if and to what extent tropical forests are shifting in these facets of diversity along climatic gradients in response to climate change. Here, we show that changes in climate affected all three facets of diversity in West Africa in recent decades. Taxonomic and functional diversity increased in wetter forests but tended to decrease in forests with drier climate. Phylogenetic diversity showed a large decrease along a wet-dry climatic gradient. Notably, we find that all three facets of diversity tended to be higher in wetter forests. Drier forests showed functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogenization. Understanding how different facets of diversity respond to a changing environment across climatic gradients is essential for effective long-term conservation of tropical forest ecosystems.

Different aspects of biodiversity may not necessarily converge in their response to climate change. Here, the authors investigate 25-year shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of tropical forests along a spatial climate gradient in West Africa, showing that drier forests are less stable than wetter forests.

Rare ground data confirm significant warming and drying in western equatorial Africa

BACKGROUND

The humid tropical forests of Central Africa influence weather worldwide and play a major role in the global carbon cycle. However, they are also an ecological anomaly, with evergreen forests dominating the western equatorial region despite less than 2,000 mm total annual rainfall. Meteorological data for Central Africa are notoriously sparse and incomplete and there are substantial issues with satellite-derived data because of persistent cloudiness and inability to ground-truth estimates. Long-term climate observations are urgently needed to verify regional climate and vegetation models, shed light on the mechanisms that drive climatic variability and assess the viability of evergreen forests under future climate scenarios.

METHODS

We have the rare opportunity to analyse a 34 year dataset of rainfall and temperature (and shorter periods of absolute humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and aerosol optical depth) from Lopé National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Gabon, western equatorial Africa. We used (generalized) linear mixed models and spectral analyses to assess seasonal and inter-annual variation, long-term trends and oceanic influences on local weather patterns.

RESULTS

Lopé's weather is characterised by a cool, light-deficient, long dry season. Long-term climatic means have changed significantly over the last 34 years, with warming occurring at a rate of +0.25 °C per decade (minimum daily temperature) and drying at a rate of -75 mm per decade (total annual rainfall). Inter-annual climatic variability at Lopé is highly influenced by global weather patterns. Sea surface temperatures of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans have strong coherence with Lopé temperature and rainfall on multi-annual scales.

CONCLUSIONS

The Lopé long-term weather record has not previously been made public and is of high value in such a data poor region. Our results support regional analyses of climatic seasonality, long-term warming and the influences of the oceans on temperature and rainfall variability. However, warming has occurred more rapidly than the regional products suggest and while there remains much uncertainty in the wider region, rainfall has declined over the last three decades at Lopé. The association between rainfall and the Atlantic cold tongue at Lopé lends some support for the 'dry' models of climate change for the region. In the context of a rapidly warming and drying climate, urgent research is needed into the sensitivity of dry season clouds to ocean temperatures and the viability of humid evergreen forests in this dry region should the clouds disappear.

Testing for changes in biomass dynamics in large-scale forest datasets

Tropical forest responses to climate and atmospheric change are critical to the future of the global carbon budget. Recent studies have reported increases in estimated above-ground biomass (EAGB) stocks, productivity, and mortality in old-growth tropical forests. These increases could reflect a shift in forest functioning due to global change and/or long-lasting recovery from past disturbance. We introduce a novel approach to disentangle the relative contributions of these mechanisms by decomposing changes in whole-plot biomass fluxes into contributions from changes in the distribution of gap-successional stages and changes in fluxes for a given stage. Using 30 years of forest dynamic data at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, we investigated temporal variation in EAGB fluxes as a function of initial EAGB (EAGB_i ) in 10 × 10 m quadrats. Productivity and mortality fluxes both increased strongly with initial quadrat EAGB. The distribution of EAGB (and thus EAGB_i ) across quadrats hardly varied over 30 years (and seven censuses). EAGB fluxes as a function of EAGB_i varied largely and significantly among census intervals, with notably higher productivity in 1985-1990 associated with recovery from the 1982-1983 El Niño event. Variation in whole-plot fluxes among census intervals was explained overwhelmingly by variation in fluxes as a function of EAGB_i , with essentially no contribution from changes in EAGB_i distributions. The high observed temporal variation in productivity and mortality suggests that this forest is very sensitive to climate variability. There was no consistent long-term trend in productivity, mortality, or biomass in this forest over 30 years, although the temporal variability in productivity and mortality was so strong that it could well mask a substantial trend. Accurate prediction of future tropical forest carbon budgets will require accounting for disturbance-recovery dynamics and understanding temporal variability in productivity and mortality.

The response of stomatal conductance to seasonal drought in tropical forests

Stomata regulate CO₂ uptake for photosynthesis and water loss through transpiration. The approaches used to represent stomatal conductance (g_s ) in models vary. In particular, current understanding of drivers of the variation in a key parameter in those models, the slope parameter (i.e. a measure of intrinsic plant water-use-efficiency), is still limited, particularly in the tropics. Here we collected diurnal measurements of leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential (Ψ_leaf ), and a suite of plant traits from the upper canopy of 15 tropical trees in two contrasting Panamanian forests throughout the dry season of the 2016 El Niño. The plant traits included wood density, leaf-mass-per-area (LMA), leaf carboxylation capacity (V_c,max ), leaf water content, the degree of isohydry, and predawn Ψ_leaf . We first investigated how the choice of four commonly used leaf-level g_s models with and without the inclusion of Ψ_leaf as an additional predictor variable influence the ability to predict g_s , and then explored the abiotic (i.e. month, site-month interaction) and biotic (i.e. tree-species-specific characteristics) drivers of slope parameter variation. Our results show that the inclusion of Ψ_leaf did not improve model performance and that the models that represent the response of g_s to vapor pressure deficit performed better than corresponding models that respond to relative humidity. Within each g_s model, we found large variation in the slope parameter, and this variation was attributable to the biotic driver, rather than abiotic drivers. We further investigated potential relationships between the slope parameter and the six available plant traits mentioned above, and found that only one trait, LMA, had a significant correlation with the slope parameter (R²  = 0.66, n = 15), highlighting a potential path towards improved model parameterization. This study advances understanding of g_s dynamics over seasonal drought, and identifies a practical, trait-based approach to improve modeling of carbon and water exchange in tropical forests.

Performance of tropical forest seedlings under shade and drought: an interspecific trade-off in demographic responses

Seedlings in moist tropical forests must cope with deep shade and seasonal drought. However, the interspecific relationship between seedling performance in shade and drought remains unsettled. We quantified spatiotemporal variation in shade and drought in the seasonal moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and estimated responses of naturally regenerating seedlings as the slope of the relationship between performance and shade or drought intensity. Our performance metrics were relative height growth and first-year survival. We investigated the relationship between shade and drought responses for up to 63 species. There was an interspecific trade-off in species responses to shade versus species responses to dry season intensity; species that performed worse in the shade did not suffer during severe dry seasons and vice versa. This trade-off emerged in part from the absence of species that performed particularly well or poorly in both drought and shade. If drought stress in tropical forests increases with climate change and as solar radiation is higher during droughts, the trade-off may reinforce a shift towards species that resist drought but perform poorly in the shade by releasing them from deep shade.

Drivers of productivity and its temporal stability in a tropical tree diversity experiment

There is increasing evidence that mixed-species forests can provide multiple ecosystem services at a higher level than their monospecific counterparts. However, most studies concerning tree diversity and ecosystem functioning relationships use data from forest inventories (under noncontrolled conditions) or from very young plantation experiments. Here, we investigated temporal dynamics of diversity-productivity relationships and diversity-stability relationships in the oldest tropical tree diversity experiment. Sardinilla was established in Panama in 2001, with 22 plots that form a gradient in native tree species richness of one-, two-, three- and five-species communities. Using annual data describing tree diameters and heights, we calculated basal area increment as the proxy of tree productivity. We combined tree neighbourhood- and community-level analyses and tested the effects of both species diversity and structural diversity on productivity and its temporal stability. General patterns were consistent across both scales indicating that tree-tree interactions in neighbourhoods drive observed diversity effects. From 2006 to 2016, mean overyielding (higher productivity in mixtures than in monocultures) was 25%-30% in two- and three-species mixtures and 50% in five-species stands. Tree neighbourhood diversity enhanced community productivity but the effect of species diversity was stronger and increased over time, whereas the effect of structural diversity declined. Temporal stability of community productivity increased with species diversity via two principle mechanisms: asynchronous responses of species to environmental variability and overyielding. Overyielding in mixtures was highest during a strong El Niño-related drought. Overall, positive diversity-productivity and diversity-stability relationships predominated, with the highest productivity and stability at the highest levels of diversity. These results provide new insights into mixing effects in diverse, tropical plantations and highlight the importance of analyses of temporal dynamics for our understanding of the complex relationships between diversity, productivity and stability. Under climate change, mixed-species forests may provide both high levels and high stability of production.

Proposing the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis as a driver of inter-annual variation in tropical tree reproductive effort

PREMISE

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects tropical environmental conditions, potentially altering ecosystem function as El Niño events interact with longer-term climate change. Anomalously warm equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures affect rainfall and temperature throughout the tropics and coincide with altered leaf flush phenology and increased fruit production in wet tropical forests; however, the understanding of mechanisms underlying this pattern is limited. There is evidence that increases in tropical tree reproduction anticipate El Niño onset, motivating the continued search for a global driver of tropical angiosperm reproduction. We present the solar-wind energy flux hypothesis: that physical energy influx to the Earth's upper atmosphere and magnetosphere, generated by a positive anomaly in the solar wind preceding El Niño development, cues tropical trees to increase resource allocation to reproduction.

METHODS

We test this hypothesis using 19 years of data from Luquillo, Puerto Rico, correlating them with measures of solar-wind energy.

RESULTS

From 1994 to 2013, the solar-wind energy flux into Earth's magnetosphere (E_in ) was more strongly correlated with the number of species fruiting and flowering than the Niño 3.4 climate index, despite Niño 3.4 being previously identified as a driver of interannual increases in reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in the global magnetosphere and thermosphere conditions from increased solar-wind energy affect global atmospheric pressure and circulation patterns, principally by weakening the Walker circulation. We discuss the idea that these changes cue interannual increases in tropical tree reproduction and act through an unidentified mechanism that anticipates and synchronizes the reproductive output of the tropical trees with El Niño.

Climate and plant trait strategies determine tree carbon allocation to leaves and mediate future forest productivity

Forest leaf area has enormous leverage on the carbon cycle because it mediates both forest productivity and resilience to climate extremes. Despite widespread evidence that trees are capable of adjusting to changes in environment across both space and time through modifying carbon allocation to leaves, many vegetation models use fixed carbon allocation schemes independent of environment, which introduces large uncertainties into predictions of future forest responses to atmospheric CO₂ fertilization and anthropogenic climate change. Here, we develop an optimization-based model, whereby tree carbon allocation to leaves is an emergent property of environment and plant hydraulic traits. Using a combination of meta-analysis, observational datasets, and model predictions, we find strong evidence that optimal hydraulic-carbon coupling explains observed patterns in leaf allocation across large environmental and CO₂ concentration gradients. Furthermore, testing the sensitivity of leaf allocation strategy to a diversity in hydraulic and economic spectrum physiological traits, we show that plant hydraulic traits in particular have an enormous impact on the global change response of forest leaf area. Our results provide a rigorous theoretical underpinning for improving carbon cycle predictions through advancing model predictions of leaf area, and underscore that tree-level carbon allocation to leaves should be derived from first principles using mechanistic plant hydraulic processes in the next generation of vegetation models.

Effects of neighborhood trait composition on tree survival differ between drought and postdrought periods

Although direct tree demographic responses to drought are widely recognized, studies of drought-mediated changes in tree interactions are rare. We hypothesize that drought exacerbates soil-water limitation and intensifies competition for water, but reduces light limitation and competition for light. We predict that competition would be stronger for trees (1) consuming more water or more susceptible to water deficits during drought and (2) intercepting more light or more susceptible to shade during postdrought periods. We tested these predictions in a 50-ha tropical forest plot by quantifying the effects of neighborhood mean trait values on tree survival during versus after a severe drought. We used wood density (WD) and leaf mass per area (LMA) as proxies for water and light use strategies, respectively. Tree survival was lower, canopy loss was greater, and sapling recruitment was greater during the drought relative to postdrought census intervals. This suggests that drought pushed water deficits to lethal extremes and increased understory light availability. Relationships between survival and neighborhood WD were independent of drought, which is inconsistent with our first prediction. In contrast, relationships between survival and neighborhood LMA differed strongly with drought. Survival time was unaffected by neighborhood LMA during drought, but was longer for trees of all sizes in low-LMA neighborhoods in the postdrought census interval, consistent with the prediction of reduced competition for light during drought. Our results suggest that severe drought might increase light availability and reduce competition for light in moist tropical forests.

Quantifying Leaf Phenology of Individual Trees and Species in a Tropical Forest Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Images

Tropical forests exhibit complex but poorly understood patterns of leaf phenology. Understanding species- and individual-level phenological patterns in tropical forests requires datasets covering large numbers of trees, which can be provided by Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). In this paper, we test a workflow combining high-resolution RGB images (7 cm/pixel) acquired from UAVs with a machine learning algorithm to monitor tree and species leaf phenology in a tropical forest in Panama. We acquired images for 34 flight dates over a 12-month period. Crown boundaries were digitized in images and linked with forest inventory data to identify species. We evaluated predictions of leaf cover from different models that included up to 14 image features extracted for each crown on each date. The models were trained and tested with visual estimates of leaf cover from 2422 images from 85 crowns belonging to eight species spanning a range of phenological patterns. The best-performing model included both standard color metrics, as well as texture metrics that quantify within-crown variation, with r2 of 0.84 and mean absolute error (MAE) of 7.8% in 10-fold cross-validation. In contrast, the model based only on the widely-used Green Chromatic Coordinate (GCC) index performed relatively poorly (r2 = 0.52, MAE = 13.6%). These results highlight the utility of texture features for image analysis of tropical forest canopies, where illumination changes may diminish the utility of color indices, such as GCC. The algorithm successfully predicted both individual-tree and species patterns, with mean r2 of 0.82 and 0.89 and mean MAE of 8.1% and 6.0% for individual- and species-level analyses, respectively. Our study is the first to develop and test methods for landscape-scale UAV monitoring of individual trees and species in diverse tropical forests. Our analyses revealed undescribed patterns of high intraspecific variation and complex leaf cover changes for some species.

Drought Differentially Affects Growth, Transpiration, and Water Use Efficiency of Mixed and Monospecific Planted Forests

Drought conditions may have differential impacts on growth, transpiration, and water use efficiency (WUE) in mixed species and monospecific planted forests. Understanding the resistance (i.e., the capacity to maintain processes unchanged) of different tree species to drought, and how resistance is affected by complementary interactions within species mixtures, is particularly important in the seasonally dry tropics where projected increases in the frequency and severity of drought threaten tree planting efforts and water resources. Complementary interactions between species may lead to more resistant stands if complementarity leads to greater buffering capacity during drought. We examined growth, transpiration, and WUE of mixtures and monocultures of Terminalia amazonia (J.F. Gmel.) Exell and Dalbergia retusa Hemsl. before and during a prolonged drought using intensive measurements of tree sap flow and growth. Tree sapwood area growth was highest for T. amazonia in mixtures during normal (6.78 ± 4.08 mm2 yr−1) and drought (7.12 ± 4.85 mm2 yr−1) conditions compared to the other treatments. However, stand sapwood area growth was greatest for T. amazonia monocultures, followed by mixtures, and finally, D. retusa monocultures. There was a significant decrease in stand transpiration during drought for both mixtures and T. amazonia monocultures, while Dalbergia retusa monocultures were most water use efficient at both the tree and stand level. Treatments showed different levels of resistance to drought, with D. retusa monocultures being the most resistant, with non-significant changes of growth and transpiration before and during drought. Combining species with complementary traits and avoiding combinations where one species dominates the other, may maximize complementary interactions and reduce competitive interactions, leading to greater resistance to drought conditions.

Improving Entropy Estimates of Complex Network Topology for the Characterization of Coupling in Dynamical Systems

A new measure for the characterization of interconnected dynamical systems coupling is proposed. The method is based on the representation of time series as weighted cross-visibility networks. The weights are introduced as the metric distance between connected nodes. The structure of the networks, depending on the coupling strength, is quantified via the entropy of the weighted adjacency matrix. The method has been tested on several coupled model systems with different individual properties. The results show that the proposed measure is able to distinguish the degree of coupling of the studied dynamical systems. The original use of the geodesic distance on Gaussian manifolds as a metric distance, which is able to take into account the noise inherently superimposed on the experimental data, provides significantly better results in the calculation of the entropy, improving the reliability of the coupling estimates. The application to the interaction between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole and to the influence of ENSO on influenza pandemic occurrence illustrates the potential of the method for real-life problems.

Resilience of seed production to a severe El Niño-induced drought across functional groups and dispersal types

More frequent and severe El Niño Southern Oscillations (ENSO) are causing episodic periods of decreased rainfall. Although the effects of these ENSO-induced droughts on tree growth and mortality have been well studied, the impacts on other demographic rates such as reproduction are less well known. We use a four-year seed rain dataset encompassing the most severe ENSO-induced drought in more than 30 years to assess the resilience (i.e., resistance and recovery) of the seed composition and abundance of three forest types in a tropical dry forest. We found that forest types showed distinct differences in the timing, duration, and intensity of drought during the ENSO event, which likely mediated seed composition shifts and resilience. Drought-deciduous species were particularly sensitive to the drought with overall poor resilience of seed production, whereby seed abundance of this functional group failed to recover to predrought levels even two years after the drought. Liana and wind-dispersed species were able to maintain seed production both during and after drought, suggesting that ENSO events promote early successional species or species with a colonization strategy. Combined, these results suggest that ENSO-induced drought mediates the establishment of functional groups and dispersal types suited for early successional conditions with more open canopies and reduced competition among plants. The effects of the ENSO-induced drought on seed composition and abundance were still evident two years after the event suggesting the recovery of seed production requires multiple years that may lead to shifts in forest composition and structure in the long term, with potential consequences for higher trophic levels like frugivores.

Changing Climatic Averages and Variance: Implications for Mesophication at the Eastern Edge of North America’s Eastern Deciduous Forest

Observed conversion of xerophytic warm genera species to mesophytic cool genera species in North America’s Eastern Deciduous Forest (EDF) suggests species composition is in disequilibrium with recent climatic warming. However, increasing annual average temperatures is an oversimplification of long-term climatic change and the importance of climate variance is often neglected. Seven-year moving averages and standard deviations of annually averaged maximum temperatures, minimum temperatures, daily precipitation, and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in West Virginia, USA were quantified over a 111-year period of record (1906–2016). Maximum temperatures decreased significantly (−5.3%; p < 0.001), minimum temperatures increased significantly (7.7%; p < 0.001), and precipitation increased (2.2%; p = 0.107). Additionally, maximum temperature variance decreased (−17.4%; p = 0.109), minimum temperature variance decreased significantly (−22.6%; p = 0.042), and precipitation variance increased significantly (26.6%; p = 0.004). Results indicate a reduced diurnal temperature range and significant reductions in estimated VPD (10.3%; p < 0.001) that imply increased relative humidity, cloud cover, and soil moisture that may support increasingly abundant mesophytic cool genera species. Feedback mechanisms associated with extensive changes in land use, fire suppression, and browser population may have exacerbated climatic changes. Long-term assessments of changing climatic averages and variance are needed to ensure sustainability of forest ecosystem services, health, and productivity in a swiftly changing climate across the broader EDF region and similar temperate forest ecosystems globally.