Widespread seasonal compensation effects of spring warming on northern plant productivity

Warming decreased plant litter decomposition by modulating soil fauna interactions in a Tibetan alpine meadow

Litter decomposition is a vital process for maintaining ecosystem carbon cycling. It is affected by soil fauna which are predators and decomposers of litter. However, how the interactions of soil fauna communities affect litter decomposition remains unclear under warming. Here, we conducted a five-year in-situ manipulative warming experiment by Open-Top Chamber (OTC) in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau to reveal how warming affects litter decomposition. The results demonstrated that warming decreased the litter decomposition rate by 29 %, the soil collembola abundance by 25 %, and the nematode abundance by 27 %. Nematode ecological indices remain stable but a shift in the decomposition of litter to the fungivores pathway under warming. The piecewise structural equation modelling result revealed that the combined reduction in soil collembola and nematodes synergistically leads to a massive decline in litter decomposition rate under warming. Our results highlight that the interactions of soil fauna can regulate litter decomposition under warming, and collembola abundance as the "speed-limiter" of litter decomposition. Therefore, the response of changes in soil fauna relationships to warming should be completely considered in future climate change modelling of the grassland carbon cycle.

Warming-driven increased synchrony of tree growth across the southernmost part of the Asian boreal forests

Climate change has profoundly affected the synchrony of tree growth at multiple scales, thereby altering the structure and function of forest ecosystems. The Asian boreal forests extend southward to the Greater Khingan Range in northeast China. Given the ecological importance and susceptibility to climate change, the impacts of warming on this marginal forest community have been extensively investigated. Nonetheless, how tree growth synchrony changes across this region remains less understood. Focusing on this knowledge gap, we compiled a contiguously-distributed tree-ring network, containing 18 sampling populations and 475 individual larch trees, to explore the changes in multiple-scale growth synchrony across this region. We found increasing growth synchrony at both the individual and population levels over the past decades. The increasing trend of the regional inter-population growth synchrony was well in line with the increasing temperature and PDSI. Furthermore, 11 of the 18 sampling populations showed significant increases in their intra-population growth synchrony. We further associated the sliding intra-population growth synchrony with local climates. Intra-population growth synchrony of 13 and 11 sampling populations were significantly positively correlated with local temperature, and negatively correlated with local PDSI, respectively, demonstrating the driving role of warming-induced drought on growth synchrony. The linear regression model quantifying this relationship suggested that an increase of 1 °C in annual mean temperature would drive the intra-population growth synchrony to increase by 0.047. As warming trends in the study area are projected to continue over this century, our study warns of the further consequences of the increasing growth synchrony may have on the functioning, resilience, and persistence of forests.

Grassland productivity in arid Central Asia depends on the greening rate rather than the growing season length

Climate change has induced substantial impact on the gross primary productivity (GPP) of terrestrial ecosystems by affecting vegetation phenology. Nevertheless, it remains unclear which among the mean rates of grass greening (RG), yellowing (RY), and the length of growing season (LOS) exhibit stronger explanatory power for GPP variations, and how RG and RY affect GPP variations under warming scenarios. Here, we explored the relationship between RG, RY, LOS, and GPP in arid Central Asia (ACA) from 1982 to 2019, elucidating the response mechanisms of RG, RY, and GPP to the mean temperature (TMP), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), precipitation (PRE), and soil moisture (SM). The results showed that the multi-year average length of greening (LG) in ACA was 22.7 days shorter than that of yellowing (LY) and the multi-year average GPP during LG (GPPlg) was 38.28 g C m-2 d -1 more than that of during LY (GPPly). RG and RY were positively correlated with GPPlg and GPPly, although the degree of correlation between RG and GPPlg was higher than that between RY and GPPly. Increases in RG and RY contributed to an increase in GPPlg (55.44 % of annual GPP) and GPPly (35.44 % of annual GPP). The correlation between RG and GPPlg was the strongest (0.49), followed by RY and GPPly (0.33), and LOS and GPP was the weakest (0.21). TMP, VPD, PRE, and SM primarily affected GPP by influencing RG and RY, rather than direct effects. The positive effects of TMP during LG (TMPlg), PRE during LG (PRElg), and SM during LG (SMlg) facilitated increases in RG and GPPlg, and higher VPD during LY (VPDly) and lower PRE during LY (PREly) accelerated increases in RY. Our study elucidated the impact of vegetation growth rate on GPP, thus providing an alternate method of quantifying the relationship between vegetation phenology and GPP.

Long-term species-level observations indicate the critical role of soil moisture in regulating China's grassland productivity relative to phenological and climatic factors

As a sensitive indicator of climate change and a key variable in ecosystem surface-atmosphere interaction, vegetation phenology, and the growing season length, as well as climatic factors (i.e., temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) are widely recognized as key factors influencing vegetation productivity. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of soil moisture in regulating grassland productivity. However, the relative importance of phenology, climatic factors, and soil moisture to plant species-level productivity across China's grasslands remains poorly understood. Here, we use nearly four decades (1981 to 2018) of in situ species-level observations from 17 stations distributed across grasslands in China to examine the key mechanisms that control grassland productivity. The results reveal that soil moisture is the strongest determinant of the interannual variability in grassland productivity. In contrast, the spring/autumn phenology, the length of vegetation growing season, and climate factors have relatively minor impacts. Generally, annual aboveground biomass increases by 3.9 to 25.3 g∙m2 (dry weight) with a 1 % increase in growing season mean soil moisture across the stations. Specifically, the sensitivity of productivity to moisture in wetter and colder environments (e.g., alpine meadows) is significantly higher than that in drier and warmer environments (e.g., temperate desert steppes). In contrast, the sensitivity to the precipitation of the latter is greater than the former. The effect of soil moisture is the most pronounced during summer. Dominant herb productivity is more sensitive to soil moisture than the others. Moreover, multivariate regression analyses show that the primary climatic factors and their attributions to variations in soil moisture differ among the stations, indicating the interaction between climate and soil moisture is very complex. Our study highlights the interspecific difference in the soil moisture dependence of grassland productivity and provides guidance to climate change impact assessments in grassland ecosystems.

Consistent time allocation fraction to vegetation green-up versus senescence across northern ecosystems despite recent climate change

Extended growing season lengths under climatic warming suggest increased time for plant growth. However, research has focused on climatic impacts to the timing or duration of distinct phenological events. Comparatively little is known about impacts to the relative time allocation to distinct phenological events, for example, the proportion of time dedicated to leaf growth versus senescence. We use multiple satellite and ground-based observations to show that, despite recent climate change during 2001 to 2020, the ratio of time allocated to vegetation green-up over senescence has remained stable [1.27 (± 0.92)] across more than 83% of northern ecosystems. This stability is independent of changes in growing season lengths and is caused by widespread positive relationships among vegetation phenological events; longer vegetation green-up results in longer vegetation senescence. These empirical observations were also partly reproduced by 13 dynamic global vegetation models. Our work demonstrates an intrinsic biotic control to vegetation phenology that could explain the timing of vegetation senescence under climate change.

Insight into Body Condition Variability in Small Mammals

The body condition index (BCI) is an indicator of both reproductive success and health in small mammals and might help to understand ecological roles of species. We analyzed BCI data from 28,567 individuals trapped in Lithuania between 1980 and 2023. We compared BCIs between species and examined differences in age groups, gender, and reproductive statuses within each species. Seven out of eighteen species had sample sizes with N < 100. In terms of species, we found that seven of the eight species with the highest average BCIs are granivores or omnivores, which can consume animal-based food at least seasonally. The two contrasting (decreasing or increasing) BCI patterns observed during ontogeny can be related to diet differences among juveniles, subadults, and adult animals. Our results demonstrate that reproductive stress has a negative impact on the BCI of adult females in all analyzed species and nearly all adult males. Although the animals with extremely low BCI consisted mostly of shrews, for the first time we found 23 common and pygmy shrews exhibiting the Chitty effect, i.e., a very high body mass resulting in a BCI > 5.0. This is the first multi-species approach of body condition at middle latitudes. The results increase our understanding of how changing environmental conditions are affecting small mammals.

Responses of phenology to preseason drought and soil temperature for different land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau

Drought and heat caused major disturbance in nature by interfering with plant phenology, and can also alter the vulnerability and resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. Existing research on the Mongolian Plateau has primarily focused on studying the response of the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season to drought and heat variations. However, there is still a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding the coupled effects of drought and heat on phenology across different land cover types. In this study, we retrieved SOS and EOS based on 34-year (1982-2015) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) dataset from Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS). Results showed that grasslands and the Gobi-Desert show rapid advancement in SOS, and forests presented the slowest advancement in SOS, but SOS in croplands were delayed. EOS across four land cover types advanced, with the Gobi-Desert showed the highest rate of advancement and forests the lowest. Using the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and soil temperature as the indicators of drought and thermal conditions, the responses of SOS and EOS to these two climate variables were evaluated. The advanced SOS driven by lower drought severity was detected in forests, grasslands, croplands and the Gobi-Desert. The dominant response of EOS to drought severity was positive in croplands, grasslands and forests, except for the Gobi-Desert, where drought severity had negative effects on EOS. Compared with the daily average soil temperature (STmean), the daily maximum soil temperature (STmax, daytime), and the daily minimum soil temperature (STmin, nighttime), the daily diurnal soil temperature range (DSTR, where DSTR = STmax - STmin) between night and day were the most suitable indicators for assessing the response of SOS and EOS to soil temperature. Strong negative correlation between SOS and the preseason DSTR was pronounced in all land cover types on the Mongolian Plateau. However, EOS was negatively correlated with the preseason DSTR only in the Gobi-Desert. Last but not least, normalized sensitivity assessments reveal that the negative impacts of DSTR on SOS and EOS were the main controlling factors on the Mongolian Plateau phenology, followed by the couple negative effects of drought severity and DSTR.

Woody encroachment induced earlier and extended growing season in boreal wetland ecosystems

Woody plant encroachment (WPE), a widespread ecological phenomenon globally, has significant impacts on ecosystem structure and functions. However, little is known about how WPE affects phenology in wetland ecosystems of middle and high latitudes. Here, we investigated the regional-scale effects of WPE on the start (SOS), peak (POS), end (EOS), and length (GSL) of the growing season in boreal wetland ecosystems, and their underlying mechanisms, using remote sensing dataset during 2001-2016. Our results showed that WPE advanced the annual SOS and POS, while delaying EOS and extending GSL in boreal wetlands with these impacts increasing over time. When boreal wetland ecosystems were fully encroached by woody plants, the SOS and POS were advanced by 12.17 and 5.65 days, respectively, the EOS was postponed by 2.74 days, and the GSL was extended by 15.21 days. We also found that the impacts of WPE on wetland SOS were predominantly attributed to the increased degree of WPE (α), while climatic factors played a more significant role in controlling the POS and EOS responses to WPE. Climate change not only directly influenced phenological responses of wetlands to WPE but also exerted indirect effects by regulating soil moisture and α. Winter precipitation and spring temperature primarily determined the effects of WPE on SOS, while its impacts on POS were mainly controlled by winter precipitation, summer temperature, and precipitation, and the effects on EOS were mainly determined by winter precipitation, summer temperature, and autumn temperature. Our findings offer new insights into the understanding of the interaction between WPE and wetland ecosystems, emphasizing the significance of considering WPE effects to ensure accurate assessments of phenology changes.

Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems

Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.

Drought shortens subtropical understory growing season by advancing leaf senescence

Subtropical forests, recognized for their intricate vertical canopy stratification, exhibit high resistance to extreme drought. However, the response of leaf phenology to drought in the species-rich understory remains poorly understood. In this study, we constructed a digital camera system, amassing over 360,000 images through a 70% throughfall exclusion experiment, to explore the drought response of understory leaf phenology. The results revealed a significant advancement in understory leaf senescence phenology under drought, with 11.75 and 15.76 days for the start and end of the leaf-falling event, respectively. Pre-season temperature primarily regulated leaf development phenology, whereas soil water dominated the variability in leaf senescence phenology. Under drought conditions, temperature sensitivities for the end of leaf emergence decreased from -13.72 to -11.06 days °C-1, with insignificance observed for the start of leaf emergence. Consequently, drought treatment shortened both the length of the growing season (15.69 days) and the peak growth season (9.80 days) for understory plants. Moreover, this study identified diverse responses among intraspecies and interspecies to drought, particularly during the leaf development phase. These findings underscore the pivotal role of water availability in shaping understory phenology patterns, especially in subtropical forests.

Drought limits vegetation carbon sequestration by affecting photosynthetic capacity of semi-arid ecosystems on the Loess Plateau

Drought is the driver for ecosystem production in semi-arid areas. However, the response mechanism of ecosystem productivity to drought remains largely unknown. In particular, it is still unclear whether drought limits the production via photosynthetic capacity or phenological process. Herein, we assess the effects of maximum seasonal photosynthesis, growing season length, and climate on the annual gross primary productivity (GPP) in vegetation areas of the Loess Plateau using multi-source remote sensing and climate data from 2001 to 2021. We found that maximum seasonal photosynthesis rather than growing season length dominates annual GPP, with above 90 % of the study area showing significant and positive correlation. GPP and maximum seasonal photosynthesis were positively correlated with self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) in >95 % of the study area. Structural equation model demonstrated that both drought indices contributed to the annual GPP by promoting the maximum seasonal photosynthesis. Total annual precipitation had a positive and significant effect on two drought indices, whereas the effects of temperature and radiation were not significant. Evidence from wood formation data also confirmed that low precipitation inhibited long-term carbon sequestration by decreasing the maximum growth rate in forests. Our findings suggest that drought limits ecosystem carbon sequestration by inhibiting vegetation photosynthetic capacity rather than phenology, providing a support for assessing the future dynamics of the terrestrial carbon cycle and guiding landscape management in semi-arid ecosystems.

Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake

Although elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.

Stem growth phenology, not canopy greening, constrains deciduous tree growth

Canopy phenology is a widely used proxy for deciduous forest growth with various applications in terrestrial ecosystem modeling. Its use relies on common assumptions that canopy greening and stem growth are tightly coordinated processes, enabling predictions on the timing and the quantity of annual tree growth. Here, we present parallel observations of canopy and stem growth phenology and annual stem increment in around 90 deciduous forest trees with diffuse-porous (Fagus sylvatica, Acer pseudoplatanus, Carpinus betulus) or ring-porous (Quercus robur × petraea) wood anatomy. These data were collected in a mixed temperate forest at the Swiss-Canopy-Crane II site, in 4 years with strongly contrasting weather conditions. We found that stem growth resumption lagged several weeks behind spring canopy greening in diffuse-porous but not in ring-porous trees. Canopy greening and stem growth resumption showed no or only weak signs of temporal coordination across the observation years. Within the assessed species, the seasonal timing of stem growth varied strongly among individuals, as trees with high annual increments resumed growth earlier and also completed their main growth earlier. The length of main growth activity had no influence on annual increments. Our findings not only challenge tight temporal coordination of canopy and stem growth phenology but also demonstrate that longer main growth activity does not translate into higher annual increments. This may compromise approaches modeling tree growth and forest productivity with canopy phenology and growth length.

Diminishing carryover benefits of earlier spring vegetation growth

Spring vegetation growth can benefit summer growth by increasing foliage area and carbon sequestration potential, or impair it by consuming additional resources needed for sustaining subsequent growth. However, the prevalent driving mechanism and its temporal changes remain unknown. Using satellite observations and long-term atmospheric CO2 records, here we show a weakening trend of the linkage between spring and summer vegetation growth/productivity in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2021. This weakening is driven by warmer and more extreme hot weather that becomes unfavourable for peak-season growth, shifting peak plant functioning away from earlier periods. This is further exacerbated by seasonally growing ecosystem water stress due to reduced water supply and enhanced water demand. Our finding suggests that beneficial carryover effects of spring growth on summer growth are diminishing or even reversing, acting as an early warning sign of the ongoing shift of climatic effects from stimulating to suppressing plant photosynthesis during the early to peak seasons.

Shifts in intra-annual growth dynamics drive a decline in productivity of temperate trees in Central European forest under warmer climate

Climate change shifts tree growth phenology and dynamics in temperate forests. However, there is still little information on how warming climate changes intra-annual growth patterns and how these changes affect the productivity and carbon uptake of temperate trees. To address this knowledge gap, we used high-precision growth data from automatic dendrometers to quantify the impacts of unusually warm weather in 2022 (hot year) on growth phenology, dynamics and aboveground biomass (AGB) production in eight common temperate species (both conifers and broadleaved) in the Czech Republic. Mixed-effect models were used to investigate inter-annual changes in the start, end, and length of the growing season and intra-annual growth dynamics. We also modelled how changes in growth phenology, growth rates, and tree size affected yearly AGB production of individual trees. In the hot year, the growth started 5 days earlier, peaked 22 days earlier and ended 20 days earlier than in the climatically normal year, resulting in a shorter growing season with fewer growing days. AGB production decreased 36 % in the hot year, mainly due to fewer growing days and lower maximum growth rates, but with significant variation among tested species. The decline in AGB production in the hot year was most significant in the most productive species, which were also the species with the greatest reduction in the number of growing days. Tree size strongly enhanced AGB production, but its effect did not change with climate variation. Our findings suggest that climate change is likely to advance but also shorten the growing season of temperate trees, resulting in lower biomass production and carbon uptake. The results also indicate that the fast-growing and highly productive temperate tree species will have their growth reduced most by climate change, which will increasingly limit their high carbon sequestration potential.

Satellite monitoring reveals short-term cumulative and time-lag effect of drought and heat on autumn photosynthetic phenology in subtropical vegetation

Comparing with the effect of the average climate change on vegetation phenology, the impacts of extreme climate events remain unclear, especially considering their characteristic cumulative and time-lag effects. Using solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) satellite records, we investigated the cumulative and time-lag effects of drought and heat events on photosynthesis, particularly for the end date of autumn photosynthesis (EOP), in subtropical vegetation in China. Our results showed a negative effect of drought on the delay of EOP, with the cumulative effect on 30.12% (maximum continuous dry days, CDD), 34.82% (dry days, DRD), and 26.14% (dry period, DSDI) of the study area and the general time-lag effect on 50.73% (maximum continuous dry days), 56.61% (dry days), and 47.55% (dry period) of the study area. The cumulative and lagged time were 1-3 months and 2-3 months, respectively. In contrast, the cumulative effect of heat on EOP was observed in 16.27% (warm nights, TN90P), 23.66% (moderate heat days, TX50P), and 19.19% (heavy heat days, TX90P) of the study area, with cumulative time of 1-3 months. The lagged time was 3-4 months, detected in 31.02% (warm nights), 45.86% (moderate heat days), and 36.52% (heavy heat days) of the study area. At the vegetation community level, drought and heat had relatively rapid impacts on EOP in the deciduous broadleaved forest, whereas evergreen forests and bushes responded to heat slowly and took a longer time. Our results revealed that drought and heat have short-term cumulative and time-lag effects on the EOP of subtropical vegetation in China, with varying effects among different vegetation types. These findings provide new insights into the effect of drought and heat on subtropical vegetation and confirm the need to consider these effects in the development of prediction models of autumn phenology for subtropical vegetation.

Increased photosynthesis during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems

Drought is often thought to reduce ecosystem photosynthesis. However, theory suggests there is potential for increased photosynthesis during meteorological drought, especially in energy-limited ecosystems. Here, we examine the response of photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) to meteorological drought across the water-energy limitation spectrum. We find a consistent increase in eddy covariance GPP during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems (83% of the energy-limited sites). Half of spring GPP sensitivity to precipitation was predicted solely from the wetness index (R2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), with weaker relationships in summer and fall. Our results suggest GPP increases during spring drought for 55% of vegetated Northern Hemisphere lands ( >30° N). We then compare these results to terrestrial biosphere model outputs and remote sensing products. In contrast to trends detected in eddy covariance data, model mean GPP always declined under spring precipitation deficits after controlling for air temperature and light availability. While remote sensing products captured the observed negative spring GPP sensitivity in energy-limited ecosystems, terrestrial biosphere models proved insufficiently sensitive to spring precipitation deficits.

Lagged feedback of peak season photosynthetic activities on local surface temperature in Inner Mongolia, China

Increased vegetation peak growth and phenological shifts toward spring have been observed in response to climate warming in the temperate regions. Such changes have the potential to modify warming by perturbing land‒atmosphere energy exchanges; however, the signs and magnitudes of biophysical feedback on surface temperature in different biomes are largely unknown. Here, we synthesized information from vegetation growth proxies, land surface temperature (LST), and surface energy balance factors (surface evapotranspiration (ET), albedo, and broadband emissivity (BBE)) to investigate the variations in timing (PPT) and productivity (PPmax) of seasonal peak photosynthesis and their time-lagged biophysical feedbacks to the post-season LST in Inner Mongolia (IM) during 2001-2020. We found that increased PPmax, rather than advanced PPT, exhibited a significant impact on LST, with divergent signs and magnitudes across diurnal periods and among different biomes. In the grassland biome, increased PPmax cooled both LST during daytime (LSTday) and nighttime (LSTnight) throughout the post-season period, with a more pronounced response during daytime and diminishing gradually from July to September. This cooling effect on LST was primarily attributed to enhanced ET, as evidenced by the greater effect of ET cooling than that of albedo warming and BBE cooling based on a structural equation model (SEM). In the forest biome, increased PPmax led to a symmetrical warming effect on LSTday and LSTnight, and none of the surface energy balance factors were identified as significant intermediate explanatory factors for the observed warming effect. Moreover, the responses of average LST (LSTmean) and diurnal temperature range of LST (LSTDTR) to variations in PPmax were consistent with those of LSTday at two biomes. The observations above elucidate the divergent feedback mechanisms of vegetation peak growth on LST among different biomes and diurnal cycles, which could facilitate the improvement of the realistic parameterization of surface processes in global climate models.

Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales

In most of the world, conditions conducive to wildfires are becoming more prevalent. Net carbon emissions from wildfires contribute to a positive climate feedback that needs to be monitored, quantified, and predicted. Here we use a causal inference approach to evaluate the influence of top-down weather and bottom-up fuel precursors on wildfires. The top-down dominance on wildfires is more widespread than bottom-up dominance, accounting for 73.3% and 26.7% of regions, respectively. The top-down precursors dominate in the tropical rainforests, mid-latitudes, and eastern Siberian boreal forests. The bottom-up precursors dominate in North American and European boreal forests, and African and Australian savannahs. Our study identifies areas where wildfires are governed by fuel conditions and hence where fuel management practices may be more effective. Moreover, our study also highlights that top-down and bottom-up precursors show complementary wildfire predictability across timescales. Seasonal or interannual predictions are feasible in regions where bottom-up precursors dominate.

The impact of vegetation phenology changes on the relationship between climate and net primary productivity in Yunnan, China, under global warming

Climate influences net primary productivity (NPP) either directly or indirectly via phenology. Therefore, clarifying the indirect effects of climate on NPP through phenology is of utmost importance. However, the underlying mechanisms by which phenology indirectly affects NPP are unknown and poorly studied. Based on different structural equation models, this study analyzed the influence of phenology on the relationship between climate and NPP, and the results were as follows: (1) Temperature and solar radiation directly affect the end and beginning of the growing season, respectively, while precipitation indirectly affects the beginning of the growing season. (2) Spring phenology mainly affects the relationship between subsequent precipitation and net primary productivity, while autumn phenology mainly affects the relationship between temperature and net primary productivity. (3) Solar radiation is the most important direct influence factor on phenology and NPP, and the relationship between it and NPP is hardly disturbed by vegetation phenology. This research holds significant scientific and applied values in enhancing our understanding of the effects of global warming, forecasting ecosystem responses in the future, and formulating adaptation strategies.

Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems

The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.

Decline in stability of forest productivity in the tropics as determined by canopy water content

The impacts of low soil moisture (SM) and high vapour pressure deficit (VPD) on tree's photosynthesis and productivity are ultimately realized by changing water content in the canopy leaves. In this study, variations in canopy water content (CWC) that can be detected from microwave remotely sensed vegetation optical depth (VOD) have been proposed as a promising measure of vegetation water status, and we first reported that the regulation of CWC on productivity stability is universally applicable for global forests. Results of structural equation model (SEM) also confirmed the significant negative effect of CWC on coefficient of variation (CV) of productivity, indicating that the decrease in CWC could inevitably induce the instability of forest productivity under climate change. The most significant decrease (p < 0.01) of CWC is observed primarily in evergreen broadleaf forest in the tropics, implying an increasing instability of the most important carbon sink in terrestrial ecosystem.

Effect of climate warming on the timing of autumn leaf senescence reverses after the summer solstice

Climate change is shifting the growing seasons of plants, affecting species performance and biogeochemical cycles. Yet how the timing of autumn leaf senescence in Northern Hemisphere forests will change remains uncertain. Using satellite, ground, carbon flux, and experimental data, we show that early-season and late-season warming have opposite effects on leaf senescence, with a reversal occurring after the year's longest day (the summer solstice). Across 84% of the northern forest area, increased temperature and vegetation activity before the solstice led to an earlier senescence onset of, on average, 1.9 ± 0.1 days per °C, whereas warmer post-solstice temperatures extended senescence duration by 2.6 ± 0.1 days per °C. The current trajectories toward an earlier onset and slowed progression of senescence affect Northern Hemisphere-wide trends in growing-season length and forest productivity.

Convergence and divergence emerging in climatic controls of polynomial trends for northern ecosystem productivity over 2000-2018

Recent rapid warming has caused uneven impacts on the composition, structure, and functioning of northern ecosystems. It remains unknown how climatic drivers control linear and non-linear trends in ecosystem productivity. Based on a plant phenology index (PPI) product at a spatial resolution of 0.05° over 2000-2018, we used an automated polynomial fitting scheme to detect and characterize trend types (i.e., polynomial trends and no-trends) in the yearly-integrated PPI (PPI_INT) for northern (> 30°N) ecosystems and their dependence on climatic drivers and ecosystem types. The averaged slope for the linear trends (p < 0.05) of PPI_INT was positive across all the ecosystems, among which deciduous broadleaved forests and evergreen needle-leaved forests (ENF) showed the highest and lowest mean slopes, respectively. More than 50% of the pixels in ENF, arctic and boreal shrublands, and permanent wetlands (PW) had linear trends. A large fraction of PW also showed quadratic and cubic trends. These trend patterns agreed well with estimates of global vegetation productivity based on solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. Across all the biomes, PPI_INT in pixels with linear trends showed lower mean values and higher partial correlation coefficients with temperature or precipitation than in pixels without linear trends. Overall, our study revealed the emergence of latitudinal convergence and divergence in climatic controls on the linear and non-linear trends of PPI_INT, implying that northern shifts of vegetation and climate change may potentially increase the non-linear nature of climatic controls on ecosystem productivity. These results can improve our understanding and prediction of climate-induced changes in plant phenology and productivity and facilitate sustainable management of ecosystems by accounting for their resilience and vulnerability to future climate change.

Agroforestry Adoption Decision in Green Growth Initiative Programs: Key Lessons from the Billion Trees Afforestation Project (BTAP)

Adoption of agroforestry in the early spring under the green growth initiative programs, such as the Billion Trees Afforestation Project, has positively impacted crop productivity and plantation success in Pakistan. However, the timely adoption decision of agroforestry in the Hindu Kush Himalayan is still low, particularly among smallholders. Using a mixed-method approach, we examine the factors influencing smallholder households and community-level timely agroforestry adoption decisions. Findings show that the early and later decision-makers farmers had agricultural lands on riversides and primarily adopted agroforestry to protect their crops from devastating effects of winds and floods. In contrast, late adoption decision-makers adopted agroforestry for income diversification. Results of our logit model show that several household and community-level factors influence smallholders' timely adoption of agroforestry. The factors that positively affect the timely adoption of agroforestry include age-related factors, education, and the establishment/existence of functional community-based organizations. In contrast, political conflicts and tenure insecurity negatively affect smallholders' timely adoption of agroforestry. In-depth interviews with Village Development Committees members revealed that terrace farming, farms on riversides, communities without access to other energy sources, population growth, and low farm acreage ensured the timely adoption of agroforestry. The policy recommendations include strengthening collaborative efforts among community members, especially engaging educated old-aged farmers (elders of traditional communities) to increase adoption rates and land tenure security to ensure timely agroforestry adoption under the newly launched 10-BTAP.

Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology

Long-term observations have shown that many plants and aboveground animals have changed their phenology patterns due to warmer temperatures over the past decades. However, empirical evidence for phenological shifts in alpine organisms, particularly belowground organisms, is scarce. Here, we investigate how the activities and phenology of plants, soil microbes, and soil fauna will respond to warming in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau, and whether their potential phenological changes will be synchronized. We experimentally simulate an increase in soil temperature by 2-4 °C according to future projections for this region. We find that warming promotes plant growth, soil microbial respiration, and soil fauna feeding by 8%, 57%, and 20%, respectively, but causes dissimilar changes in their phenology during the growing season. Specifically, warming advances soil faunal feeding activity in spring and delays it in autumn, while their peak activity does not change; whereas warming increases the peak activity of plant growth and soil microbial respiration but with only minor shifts in their phenology. Such phenological asynchrony in alpine organisms may alter ecosystem functioning and stability.

A stronger advance of urban spring vegetation phenology narrows vegetation productivity difference between urban settings and natural environments

Climate change is posing dramatic effects on terrestrial vegetation dynamics. The links between vegetation phenology or vegetation activity (growth) and climate change have been widely reported, yet, less is known about the impacts of phenological shifts on vegetation growth. Urban settings characterized by urban heat island and CO₂ dome are often used as ideal natural laboratories to understand how vegetation responds to global climate change. Here we assessed the impacts of phenology changes on vegetation growth in China using satellite phenology metrics and gross primary production (GPP) data from 2003 to 2018 and urban-natural contrast analysis. Compared with natural environments, phenological metrics (e.g., start/end of growing season (SOS/EOS), and the length of growing season (GSL), etc.) were observed to change more dramatically in urban environments. Furthermore, we found that GPP in both settings increased over time but with a higher increment in the urban environments, and the urban-natural vegetation productivity gap had been diminishing at a rate of 16.9 ± 6.76 g C m^-2 y^-1. The narrowing of the urban-natural GPP difference over time can be attributed to a more advanced SOS and extended GSL in urban settings than their natural counterparts, particularly SOS shift. These findings suggested that the distinct urban phenological shifts would become increasingly important in offsetting the loss of vegetation productivity induced by urbanization.

Shifting from a thermal-constrained to water-constrained ecosystem over the Tibetan Plateau

Introduction

Understanding the seasonality of vegetation growth is important for maintaining sustainable development of grassland livestock systems over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Current knowledge of changes in the seasonality of TP grasslands is restricted to spring and autumn phenology, with little known about the date of peak vegetation growth, the most relevant quantity for grassland productivity.

Methods

We investigate the shifts of the date of peak vegetation growth and its climatic controls for the alpine grasslands over the TP during 2001-2020 using a framework based on the law of minimum, which is based on the assumption that peak vegetation growth would be consistent with the peak timing of the most limiting climatic resource.

Results

The date of peak vegetation growth over the TP advanced by 0.81 days decade-1 during 2001-2020. This spring-ward shift mainly occurs in the semi-humid eastern TP, where the peak growth date tracks the advancing peak precipitation, and shifted towards the timing of peak temperature. The advancing peak growth over the eastern TP significantly stimulated the ecosystem production by 1.99 gCm-2 year-1 day-1 during 2001-2020, while this positive effect weakened from 3.02 gCm-2 year-1 day-1 during 2000s to 1.25 gCm-2 year-1 day-1 during 2010s.

Discussion

Our results highlighted the importance of water availability in vegetation growth over the TP, and indicated that the TP grassland is moving towards a tipping point of transition from thermal-constrained to water-constrained ecosystem under the rapid warming climate.

Changes in Onset of Vegetation Growth on Svalbard, 2000-2020

The global temperature is increasing, and this is affecting the vegetation phenology in many parts of the world. The most prominent changes occur at northern latitudes such as our study area, which is Svalbard, located between 76°30'N and 80°50'N. A cloud-free time series of MODIS-NDVI data was processed. The dataset was interpolated to daily data during the 2000-2020 period with a 231.65 m pixel resolution. The onset of vegetation growth was mapped with a NDVI threshold method which corresponds well with a recent Sentinel-2 NDVI-based mapping of the onset of vegetation growth, which was in turn validated by a network of in-situ phenological data from time lapse cameras. The results show that the years 2000 and 2008 were extreme in terms of the late onset of vegetation growth. The year 2020 had the earliest onset of vegetation growth on Svalbard during the 21-year study. Each year since 2013 had an earlier or equally early timing in terms of the onset of the growth season compared with the 2000-2020 average. A linear trend of 0.57 days per year resulted in an earlier onset of growth of 12 days on average for the entire archipelago of Svalbard in 2020 compared to 2000.

New tree-ring data from Canadian boreal and hemi-boreal forests provide insight for improving the climate sensitivity of terrestrial biosphere models

Understanding boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to seasonal variations in temperature and water availability provides important basis for projecting the potential impacts of climate change on the productivity of these ecosystems. Our best available information currently comes from a limited number of field experiments and terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of varying predictive accuracy. Here, we assessed the sensitivity of annual boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth in Canada to yearly fluctuations in seasonal climate variables using a large tree-ring dataset and compared this to the climate sensitivity of annual net primary productivity (NPP) estimates obtained from fourteen TBMs. We found that boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to fluctuations in seasonal temperature and precipitation variables changed along a southwestern to northeastern gradient, with growth limited almost entirely by temperature in the northeast and west and by water availability in the southwest. We also found a lag in growth climate sensitivity, with growth largely determined by the climate during the summer prior to ring formation. Analyses of NPP sensitivity to the same climate variables produced a similar southwest to northeast gradient in growth climate sensitivity for NPP estimates from all but three TBMs. However, analyses of growth from tree-ring data and analyses of NPP from TBMs produced contrasting evidence concerning the key climate variables limiting growth. While analyses of NPP primarily indicated a positive relationship between growth and seasonal temperature, tree-ring analyses indicated negative growth relationships to temperature. Also, the positive effect of precipitation on NPP derived from most TBMs was weaker than the positive effect of precipitation on tree-ring based growth: temperature had a more important limiting effect on NPP than tree-ring data indicated. These mismatches regarding the key climate variables limiting growth suggested that characterization of tree growth in TBMs might need revision, particularly regarding the effects of stomatal conductance and carbohydrate reserve dynamics.

Photosynthetic capacity dominates the interannual variation of annual gross primary productivity in the Northern Hemisphere

Annual gross primary productivity (AGPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is the largest carbon flux component in ecosystems; however, it's unclear whether photosynthetic capacity or phenology dominates interannual variation of AGPP, and a better understanding of this could contribute to estimation of carbon sinks and their interactions with climate change. In this study, observed GPP data of 494 site-years from 39 eddy covariance sites in Northern Hemisphere were used to investigate mechanisms of interannual variation of AGPP. This study first decomposed AGPP into three seasonal dynamic attribute parameters (growing season length (CUP), maximum daily GPP (GPP_max), and the ratio of mean daily GPP to GPP_max (α_GPP)), and then decomposed AGPP into mean leaf area index (LAI_m) and annual photosynthetic capacity per leaf area (AGPP_lm). Furthermore, GPP_max was decomposed into leaf area index of DOY_max (the day when GPP_max appeared) (LAI_max) and photosynthesis per leaf area of DOY_max (GPP_lmax). Relative contributions of parameters to AGPP and GPP_max were then calculated. Finally, environmental variables of DOY_max were extracted to analyze factors influencing interannual variation of GPP_lmax. Trends of AGPP in 39 ecosystems varied from -65.23 to 53.05 g C m^-2 yr^-2, with the mean value of 6.32 g C m^-2 yr^-2. Photosynthetic capacity (GPP_max and AGPP_lm), not CUP or LAI, was the main factor dominating interannual variation of AGPP. GPP_lmax determined the interannual variation of GPP_max, and temperature, water, and radiation conditions of DOY_max affected the interannual variation of GPP_lmax. This study used the cascade relationship of "environmental variables-GPP_lmax-GPP_max-AGPP" to explain the mechanism of interannual variation of AGPP, which can provide new ideas for the AGPP estimation based on seasonal dynamic of GPP.

Respiratory loss during late-growing season determines the net carbon dioxide sink in northern permafrost regions

Warming of northern high latitude regions (NHL, > 50 °N) has increased both photosynthesis and respiration which results in considerable uncertainty regarding the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) balance of NHL ecosystems. Using estimates constrained from atmospheric observations from 1980 to 2017, we find that the increasing trends of net CO₂ uptake in the early-growing season are of similar magnitude across the tree cover gradient in the NHL. However, the trend of respiratory CO₂ loss during late-growing season increases significantly with increasing tree cover, offsetting a larger fraction of photosynthetic CO₂ uptake, and thus resulting in a slower rate of increasing annual net CO₂ uptake in areas with higher tree cover, especially in central and southern boreal forest regions. The magnitude of this seasonal compensation effect explains the difference in net CO₂ uptake trends along the NHL vegetation- permafrost gradient. Such seasonal compensation dynamics are not captured by dynamic global vegetation models, which simulate weaker respiration control on carbon exchange during the late-growing season, and thus calls into question projections of increasing net CO₂ uptake as high latitude ecosystems respond to warming climate conditions.

The northern high latitude permafrost region has been an important contributor to the carbon sink since the 1980s. A new study finds that as tree cover increases, respiratory CO2 loss during late-growing season offsets photosynthetic CO2 uptake and leads to a slower rate of increasing annual net CO2 uptake.

Contrasting phenology responses to climate warming across the northern extra-tropics

Climate warming has substantially advanced the timing of spring leaf-out of woody species at middle and high latitudes, albeit with large differences. Insights in the spatial variation of this climate warming response may therefore help to constrain future trends in leaf-out and its impact on energy, water and carbon balances at global scales. In this study, we used in situ phenology observations of 38 species from 2067 study sites, distributed across the northern hemisphere in China, Europe and the United States, to investigate the latitudinal patterns of spring leaf-out and its sensitivity (ST, advance of leaf-out dates per degree of warming) and correlation (RT, partial correlation coefficient) to temperature during the period 1980-2016. Across all species and sites, we found that ST decreased significantly by 0.15 ± 0.02 d °C-1 °N-1, and RT increased by 0.02 ± 0.001 °N-1 (both at P < 0.001). The latitudinal patterns in RT and ST were explained by the differences in requirements of chilling and thermal forcing that evolved to maximize tree fitness under local climate, particularly climate predictability and summed precipitation during the pre-leaf-out season. Our results thus showed complicated spatial differences in leaf-out responses to ongoing climate warming and indicated that spatial differences in the interactions among environmental cues need to be embedded into large-scale phenology models to improve the simulation accuracy.

Warm springs alter timing but not total growth of temperate deciduous trees

As the climate changes, warmer spring temperatures are causing earlier leaf-out^1-3 and commencement of CO₂ uptake^1,3 in temperate deciduous forests, resulting in a tendency towards increased growing season length³ and annual CO₂ uptake^1,3-7. However, less is known about how spring temperatures affect tree stem growth^8,9, which sequesters carbon in wood that has a long residence time in the ecosystem^10,11. Here we show that warmer spring temperatures shifted stem diameter growth of deciduous trees earlier but had no consistent effect on peak growing season length, maximum growth rates, or annual growth, using dendrometer band measurements from 440 trees across two forests. The latter finding was confirmed on the centennial scale by 207 tree-ring chronologies from 108 forests across eastern North America, where annual ring width was far more sensitive to temperatures during the peak growing season than in the spring. These findings imply that any extra CO₂ uptake in years with warmer spring temperatures^4,5 does not significantly contribute to increased sequestration in long-lived woody stem biomass. Rather, contradicting projections from global carbon cycle models^1,12, our empirical results imply that warming spring temperatures are unlikely to increase woody productivity enough to strengthen the long-term CO₂ sink of temperate deciduous forests.

Regional and Phased Vegetation Responses to Climate Change Are Different in Southwest China

Southwestern China (SW) is simultaneously affected by the East Asian monsoon, South Asian monsoon and westerly winds, forming a complex and diverse distribution pattern of climate types, resulting in a low interpretation rate of vegetation changes by climate factors in the region. This study explored the response characteristics of vegetation to climatic factors in the whole SW and the core area of typical climate type and the phased changes in response, adopting the form of “top-down”, using linear trend method, moving average method and correlation coefficient, and based on the climate data of CRU TS v. 4.02 for the period 1982–2017 and the annual maximum, 3/4 quantile, median, 1/4 quantile, minimum and average (abbreviated as P100, P75, P50, P25, P5 and Mean) of GIMMS NDVI, which were to characterize vegetation growth conditions. Coupling with the trend and variability of climate change, we identified four major types of climate change in the SW, including the significant increase in both temperature and precipitation (T+*-P+*), the only significant increase in temperature and decrease (T+*-P−) or increase (T+*-P+) of precipitation and no significant change (NSC). We then screened out nine typical areas of climate change types (i.e., core areas (CAs)), followed by one T+*-P+* area, which was located in the center of the lake basin of the Qiangtang Plateau. The response of vegetation to climatic factors in T+*-P+* area/T+*-P+ areas and T+*-P− areas/NSC areas were mainly manifested in an increase and a significant decrease, which makes the response characteristics of vegetation to climatic factors in the whole SW have different directionality at different growth stages. Our results may provide new ideas for clearly showing the complexity and heterogeneity of the vegetation response to climate change in the region under the background of global warming.

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. Our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns

The seasonal greening of Northern Hemisphere (NH) ecosystems, due to extended growing periods and enhanced photosynthetic activity, could modify near-surface warming by perturbing land-atmosphere energy exchanges, yet this biophysical control on warming seasonality is underexplored. By performing experiments with a coupled land-atmosphere model, here we show that summer greening effectively dampens NH warming by −0.15 ± 0.03 °C for 1982–2014 due to enhanced evapotranspiration. However, greening generates weak temperature changes in spring (+0.02 ± 0.06 °C) and autumn (−0.05 ± 0.05 °C), because the evaporative cooling is counterbalanced by radiative warming from albedo and water vapor feedbacks. The dwindling evaporative cooling towards cool seasons is also supported by state-of-the-art Earth system models. Moreover, greening-triggered energy imbalance is propagated forward by atmospheric circulation to subsequent seasons and causes sizable time-lagged climate effects. Overall, greening makes winter warmer and summer cooler, attenuating the seasonal amplitude of NH temperature. These findings demonstrate complex tradeoffs and linkages of vegetation-climate feedbacks among seasons.

The seasonal greening of Northern Hemisphere ecosystems due to extended growing periods and enhanced photosynthetic activity is, via experiments, shown to modify near-surface warming by perturbing land-atmosphere energy exchanges.

Response of Spruce Forest Ecosystem CO2 Fluxes to Inter-Annual Climate Anomalies in the Southern Taiga

Climate extremes and anomalies modify the CO2 ecosystem–atmosphere exchange of the boreal forests and consequently alter the terrestrial carbon stocks and the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The effects of the anomalous weather conditions on the CO2 net ecosystem exchange (NEE), total ecosystem respiration (TER), and gross primary production (GPP) of the typical southern taiga nemorose spruce forest were analyzed using continuous eddy covariance flux measurements in the 2015–2020 period. The forest was found to be a source of atmospheric CO2 in 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2020 (the mean annual GPP/TER ratio was between 0.87 and 0.97). In 2018, the forest was found to act as a CO2 sink (GPP/TER = 1.47) when a positive temperature anomaly in the growing season was accompanied by a negative precipitation anomaly and increased global radiation. The early start of the CO2 uptake in the anomalously warm winter of 2019/2020 did not result in an increase in the annual GPP/TER ratio (0.90). The comparison of the flux data obtained from the nemorose spruce forest on the well-drained soils with the data obtained from paludified spruce forest in the same landscape showed that the mean annual GPP/TER ratio of the sites alternatively responded to the mentioned anomalies. This study suggests that a variety of soil moisture regimes across the southern taiga spruce forests provide a non-uniformity in the response reactions of the CO2 ecosystem–atmosphere exchange on the climate anomalies.

Effects of Spring Warming and Drought Events on the Autumn Growth of Larix kaempferi Seedlings

High temperatures and droughts following winter dormancy can negatively affect seedling growth and mortality. An open-field experiment was conducted to study the growth and mortality of Larix kaempferi seedlings in response to spring warming and drought treatments and to determine whether seedlings could regain their growth capability once the treatments were discontinued. In May 2020, 1-year-old seedlings were exposed to four treatments: control, warming-only, drought-only, and the combined warming and drought. Drought treatment reduced the seedling height and root collar diameter and increased the mortality rate. The combined warming and drought treatments had the highest mortality rates, followed by the drought, control, and warming treatments. However, after the cessation of the treatments, the combined warming and drought treatments increased seedling height, root collar diameter, and individual seedling biomass because the high mortality rate relaxed competition among seedlings. This suggests that the effects of low competition on the surviving seedlings may mitigate the negative effects of warming and drought on seedling growth. Our study demonstrates that despite the high mortality and decreased growth during the treatment period, seedlings subjected to combined high temperature and drought stress showed short-term high levels of growth compared to seedlings subjected to a single stress.

Water Deficit May Cause Vegetation Browning in Central Asia

There is consistent evidence of vegetation greening in Central Asia over the past four decades. However, in the early 1990s, the greening temporarily stagnated and even for a time reversed. In this study, we evaluate changes in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on the long-term satellite-derived remote sensing data systems of the Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) NDVI from 1981 to 2013 and MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2020 to determine whether the vegetation in Central Asia has browned. Our findings indicate that the seasonal sequence of NDVI is summer > spring > autumn > winter, and the spatial distribution pattern is a semicircular distribution, with the Aral Sea Basin as its core and an upward tendency from inside to outside. Around the mid-1990s, the region’s vegetation experienced two climatic environments with opposing trends (cold and wet; dry and hot). Prior to 1994, NDVI increased substantially throughout the growth phase (April–October), but this trend reversed after 1994, when vegetation began to brown. Our findings suggest that changes in vegetation NDVI are linked to climate change induced by increased CO2. The state of water deficit caused by temperature changes is a major cause of the browning turning point across the study area. At the same time, changes in vegetation NDVI were consistent with changes in drought degree (PDSI). This research is relevant for monitoring vegetation NDVI and carbon neutralization in Central Asian ecosystems.

Carbon Source Reduction Postpones Autumn Leaf Senescence in a Widespread Deciduous Tree

The growing-season length of temperate and boreal trees has a strong effect on the global carbon cycle. Yet, a poor understanding of the drivers of phenological processes, such as autumn leaf senescence in deciduous trees, limits our capacity to estimate growing-season lengths under climate change. While temperature has been shown to be an important driver of autumn leaf senescence, carbon source-sink dynamics have been proposed as a mechanism that could help explain variation of this important process. According to the carbon sink limitation hypothesis, senescence is regulated by the interplay between plant carbon source and sink dynamics, so that senescence occurs later upon low carbon inputs (source) and earlier upon low carbon demand (sink). Here, we manipulated carbon source-sink dynamics in birch saplings (Betula pendula) to test the relevance of carbon sink limitation for autumn leaf senescence and photosynthetic decline in a widespread deciduous tree. Specifically, we conducted a gradient of leaf and bud removal treatments and monitored the effects on autumnal declines in net photosynthesis and the timing of leaf senescence. In line with the carbon sink limitation hypothesis, we observed that leaf removal tended to increase total leaf-level autumn photosynthesis and delayed the timing of senescence. Conversely, we did not observe an effect of bud removal on either photosynthesis or senescence, which was likely caused by the fact that our bud removal treatment did not considerably affect the plant carbon sink. While we cannot fully rule out that the observed effect of leaf removal was influenced by possible treatment-level differences in leaf age or soil resource availability, our results provide support for the hypothesis of carbon sink limitation as a driver of growing-season length and move the scientific field closer to narrowing the uncertainty in climate change predictions.

Spatial Difference of Interactive Effect Between Temperature and Daylength on Ginkgo Budburst

Climate warming-induced shifts in spring phenology have substantially affected the structure and function of terrestrial ecosystems and global biogeochemical cycles. Spring phenology is primarily triggered by spring temperature and is also affected by daylength and winter chilling, yet the relative importance of these cues across spatial gradients remains poorly understood. Here, we conducted a manipulative experiment with two daylength and three temperature treatments to investigate spatial differences in the response of ginkgo budburst to temperature and daylength, using twigs collected at three sites across a spatial gradient: a control site at a low latitude and low elevation on Tianmu Mountain (TM_low), a low latitude and high elevation site on Tianmu Mountain (TM_high), and a high latitude site on Jiufeng mountain (JF). The mechanisms were also tested using in situ phenological observations of ginkgo along latitudes in China. We found that, compared to TM_low individuals, budburst dates occurred 12.6 (JF) and 7.7 (TM_high) days earlier in high-latitude and high-elevation individuals when exposed to the same temperature and daylength treatments. Importantly, daylength only affected budburst at low latitudes, with long days (16 h) advancing budburst in low-latitude individuals by, on average, 8.1 days relative to short-day (8 h) conditions. This advance was most pronounced in low-elevation/latitude individuals (TM_low = 9.6 days; TM_high = 6.7 days; JF = 1.6 days). In addition, we found that the temperature sensitivity of budburst decreased from 3.4 to 2.4 days °C^-1 along latitude and from 3.4 to 2.5 days °C^-1 along elevation, respectively. The field phenological observations verified the experimental results. Our findings provide empirical evidence of spatial differences in the relative effects of spring temperature and daylength on ginkgo budburst, which improved our understanding of spatial difference in phenological changes and the responses of terrestrial ecosystem to climate change.

Woody species do not differ in dormancy progression: Differences in time to budbreak due to forcing and cold hardiness

Budbreak is one of the most observed and studied phenological phases in perennial plants, but predictions remain a challenge, largely due to our poor understanding of dormancy. Two dimensions of exposure to temperature are generally used to model budbreak: accumulation of time spent at low temperatures (chilling) and accumulation of heat units (forcing). These two effects have a well-established negative correlation; with more chilling, less forcing is required for budbreak. Furthermore, temperate plant species are assumed to vary in chilling requirements for dormancy completion allowing proper budbreak. Here, dormancy is investigated from the cold hardiness standpoint across many species, demonstrating that it should be accounted for to study dormancy and accurately predict budbreak. Most cold hardiness is lost prior to budbreak, but rates of cold hardiness loss (deacclimation) vary among species, leading to different times to budbreak. Within a species, deacclimation rate increases with accumulation of chill. When inherent differences between species in deacclimation rate are accounted for by normalizing rates throughout winter by the maximum rate observed, a standardized deacclimation potential is produced. Deacclimation potential is a quantitative measurement of dormancy progression based on responsiveness to forcing as chill accumulates, which increases similarly for all species, contradicting estimations of dormancy transition based on budbreak assays. This finding indicates that comparisons of physiologic and genetic control of dormancy require an understanding of cold hardiness dynamics. Thus, an updated framework for studying dormancy and its effects on spring phenology is suggested where cold hardiness in lieu of (or in addition to) budbreak is used.

Effects of chill unit accumulation and temperature on woody plant deacclimation kinetics

Woody perennials in temperate climates develop cold hardiness in the fall (acclimation) and lose cold hardiness in the spring (deacclimation) to survive freezing winter temperatures. Two main factors known to regulate deacclimation responses are dormancy status and temperature. However, the progression of deacclimation responses throughout the dormant period and across a range of temperatures is not well described. More detailed descriptions of dormancy status and temperature, as factors regulating deacclimation, are necessary to understand the timing and magnitude of freeze injury risks for woody perennials in temperate climates. In this study, we modeled deacclimation responses in cold-climate interspecific hybrid grapevine cultivars throughout the dormant period by integrating chill accumulation and temperature through the concept of deacclimation potential. We evaluated deacclimation and budbreak under multiple temperature treatments and chill unit accumulation levels using differential thermal analysis (DTA) and bud forcing assays. Deacclimation responses increased continuously following logistic trends for both increasing chill unit accumulation and increasing temperature. There are optimal temperatures where deacclimation rates increased but changes in deacclimation rates diminished below and above these temperatures. The cumulative chill unit range where deacclimation potential increased overlapped with the transition from endo- to ecodormancy. Therefore, deacclimation potential could provide a quantitative method for describing dormancy transitions that do not rely on the visual evaluation of budbreak. This information provides a more detailed understanding of when and how deacclimation contributes to increased risks by freezing injury. In addition, our descriptions could inform improvements to models predicting cold hardiness, dormancy transitions, and spring phenology.

No evidence for a negative effect of growing season photosynthesis on leaf senescence timing

The length of the growing season has a large influence on the carbon, water, and energy fluxes of global terrestrial ecosystems. While there has been mounting evidence of an advanced start of the growing season mostly due to elevated spring air temperatures, the mechanisms that control the end of the growing season (EOS) in most ecosystems remain relatively less well understood. Recently, a strong lagged control of EOS by growing season photosynthesis has been proposed, suggesting that more productive growing seasons lead to an earlier EOS. However, this relationship has not been extensively tested with in-situ observations across a variety of ecosystems. Here, we use observations from 40 eddy-covariance flux tower sites in temperate and boreal ecosystems in the northern hemisphere with more than 10 years of observations (594 site-years), ground observations of phenology, satellite observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and three leaf senescence models to test the extent of a relationship between growing season photosynthesis and end of season senescence. The results suggest that there is no significant negative relationship between growing season photosynthesis and observed leaf senescence, flux-inferred EOS estimates, or remotely sensed phenological metrics, in most ecosystems. On the contrary, while we found negative effects of summer air temperatures and autumn vapor pressure deficit on EOS, more productive growing seasons were typically related to a later, not earlier, EOS. Our results challenge recent reports of carry-over effects of photosynthesis on EOS timing, and suggest those results may not hold over a large range of ecosystems.

Direct and Legacy Effects of Spring Temperature Anomalies on Seasonal Productivity in Northern Ecosystems

Warmer or cooler spring in northern high latitudes will, for the most part, directly impact gross primary productivity (GPP) of ecosystems, but also carry consequences for the upcoming seasonal GPP. Spatiotemporal patterns of these legacy effects are still largely unknown but important for improving our understanding of how plant phenology is associated with vegetation dynamics. In this study, impacts of spring temperature anomalies on spring, summer and autumn GPP were investigated, and the dominant drivers of summer and autumn GPP including air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture have been explored for northern ecosystems (>30°N). Three remote sensing products of seasonal GPP (GOSIF-GPP, NIRv-GPP and FluxSat-GPP) over 2001–2018, all based on a spatial resolution of 0.05°, were employed. Our results indicate that legacy effects from spring temperature are most pronounced in summer, where they have stimulating effects on the Arctic ecosystem productivity. Spring warming likely lessens the harsh climatic constraints that govern the Arctic tundra and extends the growing season length. Further south, legacy effects are mainly negative. This strengthens the hypothesis that enhanced vegetation growth in spring will increase plant water demand and stress in summer and autumn. Soil moisture is the dominant control of summer GPP in temperate regions. However, the dominant meteorological variables controlling vegetation growth may differ depending on the GPP products, highlighting the need to address uncertainties among different methods of estimating GPP.

Phenology-based seasonal terrestrial vegetation growth response to climate variability with consideration of cumulative effect and biological carryover

Vegetation growth is influenced not only by climate variability but also by its past states. However, the differences in the degree of the climate variability and past states affecting vegetation growth over seasons are still poorly understood, particularly given the cumulative climate effects. Relying on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 1982 to 2014, the vegetation growing season was decomposed into three periods (sub-seasons) - green-up (GSgp), maturity (GSmp), and senescence (GSsp) - following a phenology-based definition. A distributed lag model was then utilized to analyze the time-lag effect of vegetation growth response to climatic factors including precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation during each sub-season. On this basis, the relative importance of climatic factors and vegetation growth carryover (VGC) effect on vegetation growth was quantified at the phenology-based seasonal scale. Results showed that the longest peak lag of precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation occurred in the GSmp, GSsp, and GSgp, with 1.27 (1.13 SD), 0.89 (1.02 SD), and 0.80 (1.04 SD) months, respectively. The influence of climate variability was strongest in the GSgp, and diminished over the season, while the opposite for the VGC effect. The relative influence of each climatic factor also varied between sub-seasons. Vegetation in more than 58% of areas was more affected by temperature in the GSgp, and the proportion decreased to 34.00% and 31.78% in the GSmp and GSsp, respectively. Precipitation and solar radiation acted as the dominant climatic factors in only 28.80% and 20.88% of vegetation areas in the GSgp, but they increased to 35.21%, 32.61% in the GSmp, and 38.20%, 30.02% in the GSsp, respectively. The increased regions influenced by precipitation were mainly in dry areas especially for the boreal and cool temperate climate zones, while increased regions influenced by solar radiation were primarily located in moist areas of mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. By introducing the cumulative climate effect, our findings highlight seasonal patterns of vegetation growth affected by climate variability and the VGC effect. The results provide a more comprehensive perspective on climate-vegetation interactions, which may help us to accurately forecast future vegetation growth under accelerating global warming.

Rhizome trait scaling relationships are modulated by growth conditions and are linked to plant fitness

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Rhizomes are important organs allowing many clonal plants to persist and reproduce under stressful climates with longer rhizomes, indicating enhanced ability of the plants to spread vegetatively. We do not, however, know either how rhizome construction costs change with increasing length or how they vary with environmental conditions.

METHODS

We analysed the rhizome length vs. mass scaling relationship, the plasticity in the scaling relationships, their genetic basis and how scaling relationships are linked to plant fitness. We used data from 275 genotypes of a clonal grass Festuca rubra originating from 11 localities and cultivated under four contrasting climates. Data were analysed using standard major axis regression, mixed-effect regression models and a structural equation model.

KEY RESULTS

Rhizome construction costs increased (i.e. lower specific rhizome length) with increasing length. The trait scaling relationships were modulated by cultivation climate, and its effects also interacted with the climate of origin of the experimental plants. With increasing length, increasing moisture led to a greater increase in rhizome construction costs. Plants with lower rhizome construction costs showed significantly higher fitness.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that rhizome scaling relationships are plastic, but also show genetic differentiation and are linked to plant fitness. Therefore, to persist under variable environments, modulation in scaling relationships could be an important plant strategy.

An earlier start of the thermal growing season enhances tree growth in cold humid areas but not in dry areas

Climatic warming alters the onset, duration and cessation of the vegetative season. While previous studies have shown a tight link between thermal conditions and leaf phenology, less is known about the impacts of phenological changes on tree growth. Here, we assessed the relationships between the start of the thermal growing season and tree growth across the extratropical Northern Hemisphere using 3,451 tree-ring chronologies and daily climatic data for 1948-2014. An earlier start of the thermal growing season promoted growth in regions with high ratios of precipitation to temperature but limited growth in cold-dry regions. Path analyses indicated that an earlier start of the thermal growing season enhanced growth primarily by alleviating thermal limitations on wood formation in boreal forests and by lengthening the period of growth in temperate and Mediterranean forests. Semi-arid and dry subalpine forests, however, did not benefit from an earlier onset of growth and a longer growing season, presumably due to associated water loss and/or more frequent early spring frosts. These emergent patterns of how climatic impacts on wood phenology affect tree growth at regional to hemispheric scales hint at how future phenological changes may affect the carbon sequestration capacity of extratropical forest ecosystems.