Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes

Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.

RESULTS

The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Effect of epidemic diseases on wild animal conservation

Under the background of global species extinction, the impact of epidemic diseases on wild animal protection is increasingly prominent. Here, we review and synthesize the literature on this topic, and discuss the relationship between diseases and biodiversity. Diseases usually reduce species diversity by decreasing or extinction of species populations, but also accelerate species evolution and promote species diversity. At the same time, species diversity can regulate disease outbreaks through dilution or amplification effects. The synergistic effect of human activities and global change is emphasized, which further aggravates the complex relationship between biodiversity and diseases. Finally, we emphasize the importance of active surveillance of wild animal diseases, which can protect wild animals from potential diseases, maintain population size and genetic variation, and reduce the damage of diseases to the balance of the whole ecosystem and human health. Therefore, we suggest that a background survey of wild animal populations and their pathogens should be carried out to assess the impact of potential outbreaks on the population or species level. The mechanism of dilution and amplification effect between species diversity and diseases of wild animals should be further studied to provide a theoretical basis and technical support for human intervention measures to change biodiversity. Most importantly, we should closely combine the protection of wild animals with the establishment of an active surveillance, prevention, and control system for wild animal epidemics, in an effort to achieve a win-win situation between wild animal protection and disease control.

Conversion of steppe to cropland increases spatial heterogeneity of soil functional genes

The microbiome function responses to land use change are important for the long-term prediction and management of soil ecological functions under human influence. However, it has remains uncertain how the biogeographic patterns of soil functional composition change when transitioning from natural steppe soils (NS) to agricultural soils (AS). We collected soil samples from adjacent pairs of AS and NS across 900 km of Mollisol areas in northeast China, and the soil functional composition was characterized using shotgun sequencing. AS had higher functional alpha-diversity indices with respect to KO trait richness and a higher Shannon index than NS. The distance-decay slopes of functional gene composition were steeper in AS than in NS along both spatial and environmental gradients. Land-use conversion from steppe to farmland diversified functional gene profiles both locally and spatially; it increased the abundances of functional genes related to labile carbon, but decreased those related to recalcitrant substrate mobilization (e.g., lignin), P cycling, and S cycling. The composition of gene functional traits was strongly driven by stochastic processes, while the degree of stochasticity was higher in NS than in AS, as revealed by the neutral community model and normalized stochasticity ratio analysis. Alpha-diversity of core functional genes was strongly related to multi-nutrient cycling in AS, suggesting a key relationship to soil fertility. The results of this study challenge the paradigm that the conversion of natural to agricultural habitat will homogenize soil properties and biology while reducing local and regional gene functional diversity.

Modeling the environmental suitability for Bacillus anthracis in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China

Bacillus anthracis is a gram-positive, rod-shaped and endospore-forming bacterium that causes anthrax, a deadly disease to livestock and, occasionally, to humans. The spores are extremely hardy and may remain viable for many years in soil. Previous studies have identified East Qinghai and neighbouring Gansu in northwest China as a potential source of anthrax infection. This study was carried out to identify conditions and areas in the Qinghai Lake basin that are environmentally suitable for B. anthracis distribution. Anthrax occurrence data from 2005-2016 and environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of B. anthracis. Principal Component Analysis and Variance Inflation Analysis were adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. The three variables that contributed most to the suitability model for B. anthracis are a relatively high annual mean temperature of -2 to 0°C, (53%), soil type classified as; cambisols and kastanozems (35%), and a high human population density of 40 individuals per km2 (12%). The resulting distribution map identifies the permanently inhabited rim of the Qinghai Lake as highly suitable for B. anthracis. Our environmental suitability map and the identified variables provide the nature reserve managers and animal health authorities readily available information to devise both surveillance strategy and control strategy (administration of vaccine to livestock) in B. anthracis suitable regions to abate future epidemics.

Epizootological and epidemiological situation of anthrax in Ukraine in the context of mandatory specific prevention in susceptible animals

The problem of zoonoses remains relevant in the context of reliable prevention of human disease and effective ways to achieve this result, in particular through the impact on susceptible animals by the efforts of veterinary medicine. Anthrax is an acute, particularly dangerous infectious disease of all species of farm, domestic and wild animals, as well as humans, which is caused by Bacillus anthracis microbes. The causative agent of anthrax belongs to the group of aerobic spore-forming bacteria and exists in two main forms: vegetative and spore. The vegetative form in the body of an infected animal can form a "capsule". In Ukraine, according to the provisions of the current "Instruction for the prevention and control of animal anthrax" (2000), the main method of preventing anthrax among animals is regular vaccination of animals susceptible to this disease. The authors conducted a retrospective analysis of the epizootic and epidemiological situation of anthrax in Ukraine for the period 1994–2021 and made a critical assessment of the performance of mandatory measures for specific prevention of susceptible animals. In order to find out the ecological and geographical features of the spread of anthrax, data on outbreaks of the disease in cattle, swine, small ruminants and humans on the territory of Ukraine were analyzed by regions for the time period under investigation. Over the past 28 years in Ukraine, animal anthrax was registered in in all areas except Zhytomyr region. In total, during the analyzed period, 177 affected points and 637 infected animals (cattle, small ruminants, pigs, horses, wild and fur-bearing animals, dogs) were registered (estimated at 3.59 animals per outbreak). Cattle were most often involved in the epizootic process, followed by pigs and small ruminants, while horses and other animal species were least infected. Ecological and geographical analysis showed that the largest number of affected points among animals during the analyzed period was found in Kyiv, Volyn, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkasy, Odesa, and Vinnytsia regions. A small number of affected points during the analyzed period were found in Zakarpattia, Ternopil, Kherson, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. During the analyzed period, 68 people in 11 regions of Ukraine were infected with anthrax, 15 outbreaks were registered (4.46 people per outbreak). Most cases were reported in Donetsk, Kyiv and Odesa regions. The association between outbreaks of anthrax in animals and cases of anthrax among humans has been established, this dependency was 86.6% (the index of contiguity, which takes into account the number of years with simultaneous registration of animal and human cases, was 0.5). The authors thoroughly proved that it is vaccination among susceptible animals that will finally prevent the incidence of anthrax among people.

Modelling the ecological niche of naturally occurring anthrax at global and circumpolar extents using an ensemble modelling framework

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a spore-forming bacterium that primarily affects herbivorous livestock, wildlife and humans exposed to direct contact with infected animal carcasses or products. To date, there are a limited number of studies that have delineated the potential global distribution of anthrax, despite the importance of the disease from both an economic and public health standpoint. This study compiled occurrence data (n = 874) of confirmed human and animal cases from 1954 to 2021 in 94 countries. Using an ensemble ecological niche model framework, we developed updated maps of the global predicted ecological suitability of anthrax to measure relative risk at multiple scales of analysis, including a model for circumpolar regions. Additionally, we produced maps quantifying the disease transmission risk associated with anthrax to cattle, sheep and goat populations. Environmental suitability for B. anthracis globally is concentred throughout Eurasia, sub-Saharan Africa, the Americas, Southeast Asia, Australia and Oceania. Suitable environments for B. anthracis at the circumpolar scale extend above the Arctic Circle into portions of Russia, Canada, Alaska and northern Scandinavia. Environmental factors driving B. anthracis suitability globally include vegetation, land surface temperature, soil characteristics, primary climate conditions and topography. At the circumpolar scale, suitability is influenced by soil factors, topography and the derived climate characteristics. The greatest risk to livestock is concentrated within the Indian subcontinent, Australia, Anatolia, the Caucasus region, Central Asia, the European Union, Argentina, Uruguay, China, the United States, Canada and East Africa. This study expands on previous work by providing enhanced knowledge of the potential spatial distribution of anthrax in the Southern Hemisphere, sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and circumpolar regions of the Northern Hemisphere. We conclude that these updated maps will provide pertinent information to guide disease control programs, inform policymakers and raise awareness at the global level to lessen morbidity and mortality among animals and humans located in environmentally suitable areas.

An Outbreak of Human Systemic Anthrax, including One Case of Anthrax Meningitis, Occurred in Calabria Region (Italy): A Description of a Successful One Health Approach

In this report, three cases of human cutaneous anthrax are described, one complicated by meningitis, and all were linked to a single infected bullock. A 41-year-old male truck driver, along with two male slaughterhouse workers, 45 and 42, were hospitalized for necrotic lesions of the arm associated with edema of the limb and high fever. All three patients were involved in transporting a bullock to the slaughterhouse. Microbiological examination on the prescapular lymph node and a piece of muscle from the bullock carcass showed the presence of Bacillus anthracis. The three patients underwent a biopsy of the affected tissues, and all samples tested positive for B. anthracis DNA using PCR. Furthermore, the truck driver also complained of an intense headache, and a CSF sampling was performed, showing him positive for B. anthracis by PCR, confirming the presumptive diagnosis of meningitis. Fast diagnosis and appropriate treatment are crucial for the management of human anthrax. Cooperation between human and veterinary medicine proved successful in diagnosing and resolving three human anthrax cases, confirming the reliability of the One Health approach for the surveillance of zoonoses.

Seasonality and Ecological Suitability Modelling for Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) in Western Africa

Simple Summary

Anthrax is a globally distributed, neglected, underreported, soil-borne zoonotic disease. In West Africa, the disease is hyper-endemic, severely affecting the livestock sector. Many challenges exist to control the disease in this region, particularly constraints on financial and human resources. Therefore, methods that can be utilized to improve reporting, guide and prioritize surveillance and control activities and rationalize the allocation of limited resources are crucial. In this study, we showed how to optimize the use of fragmented, heterogeneous and limited precise reporting data of anthrax in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin and Niger to understand risk periods as well as identify and predict risk areas. To achieve this, we used anthrax data from different databases in combination with environmental and climate variables and geospatial remote sensing techniques. Our study demonstrated that the number of anthrax outbreaks by month increase with the increasing monthly rates of change in precipitation and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) during the transition period from the dry to the wet season. Livestock density, precipitation, NDVI and alkaline soils were the main predictors of anthrax suitability in the region. Our findings on anthrax seasonality and ecological suitability can inform surveillance, prevention and control programs undertaken by animal and public health authorities and enhance collaborative One Health strategies.

Abstract

Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa affecting wildlife, livestock and humans. Prediction is difficult due to the lack of accurate outbreak data. However, predicting the risk of infection is important for public health, wildlife conservation and livestock economies. In this study, the seasonality of anthrax outbreaks in West Africa was investigated using climate time series and ecological niche modeling to identify environmental factors related to anthrax occurrence, develop geospatial risk maps and identify seasonal patterns. Outbreak data in livestock, wildlife and humans between 2010 and 2018 were compiled from different sources and analyzed against monthly rates of change in precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land surface temperature. Maximum Entropy was used to predict and map the environmental suitability of anthrax occurrence. The findings showed that: (i) Anthrax outbreaks significantly (99%) increased with incremental changes in monthly precipitation and vegetation growth and decremental changes in monthly temperature during January–June. This explains the occurrence of the anthrax peak during the early wet season in West Africa. (ii) Livestock density, precipitation seasonality, NDVI and alkaline soils were the main predictors of anthrax suitability. (iii) Our approach optimized the use of limited and heterogeneous datasets and ecological niche modeling, demonstrating the value of integrated disease notification data and outbreak reports to generate risk maps. Our findings can inform public, animal and environmental health and enhance national and regional One Health disease control strategies.

Ecological Niche Model of Bacillus cereus Group Isolates Containing a Homologue of the pXO1 Anthrax Toxin Genes Infecting Metalworkers in the United States

While Bacillus cereus typically causes opportunistic infections in humans, within the last three decades, severe and fatal infections caused by isolates of the B. cereus group harboring anthrax toxin genes have been reported in the United States. From 1994 to 2020, seven cases of anthrax-like illness resulting from these isolates have been identified. With one exception, the cases have occurred in the Gulf States region of the United States among metalworkers. We aimed to develop an ecological niche model (ENM) to estimate a spatial area conducive to the survival of these organisms based on the presence of known human infections and environmental variables. The estimated ecological niche for B. cereus was modeled with the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent). Environmental variables contributing most to the model were soil characteristics (cation exchange capacity, carbon content, soil pH), temperature, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), and land surface temperature (LST). Much of the suitable environments were located throughout the Gulf Coast Plain, Texas Backland Prairies, East Central Texas Plains, Edwards Plateau, Cross Timbers, Mississippi Alluvial Plain, and Central Great Plains. These findings may provide additional guidance to narrow potential risk areas to efficiently communicate messages to metalworkers and potentially identify individuals who may benefit from the anthrax vaccine.

First PCR Confirmed anthrax outbreaks in Ethiopia—Amhara region, 2018–2019

Background

Anthrax is a disease that affects humans and animals. In Ethiopia, anthrax is a reportable disease and assumed to be endemic, although laboratory confirmation has not been routinely performed until recently. We describe the findings from the investigation of two outbreaks in Amhara region.

Methods

Following reports of suspected outbreaks in Wag Hamra zone (Outbreak 1) and South Gondar zone (Outbreak 2), multi-sectoral teams involving both animal and public health officials were deployed to investigate and establish control programs. A suspect case was defined as: sudden death with rapid bloating or bleeding from orifice(s) with unclotted blood (animals); and signs compatible with cutaneous, ingestion, or inhalation anthrax ≤7 days after exposure to a suspect animal (humans). Suspect human cases were interviewed using a standard questionnaire. Samples were collected from humans with suspected anthrax (Outbreak 1 and Outbreak 2) as well as dried meat of suspect animal cases (Outbreak 2). A case was confirmed if a positive test was returned using real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR).

Results

In Outbreak 1, a total of 49 cows died due to suspected anthrax and 22 humans developed symptoms consistent with cutaneous anthrax (40% attack rate), two of whom died due to suspected ingestion anthrax. Three people were confirmed to have anthrax by qPCR. In Outbreak 2, anthrax was suspected to have caused the deaths of two livestock animals and one human. Subsequent investigation revealed 18 suspected cases of cutaneous anthrax in humans (27% attack rate). None of the 12 human samples collected tested positive, however, a swab taken from the dried meat of one animal case (goat) was positive by qPCR.

Conclusion

We report the first qPCR-confirmed outbreaks of anthrax in Ethiopia. Both outbreaks were controlled through active case finding, carcass management, ring vaccination of livestock, training of health professionals and outreach with livestock owners. Human and animal health authorities should work together using a One Health approach to improve case reporting and vaccine coverage.

Assessment of socio-behavioural correlates and risk perceptions regarding anthrax disease in tribal communities of Odisha, Eastern India

BACKGROUND

This study is a baseline survey to assess the knowledge, attitude and practices with regards to the anthrax disease among the communities before demonstrating a One Health approach for elimination of human anthrax in an endemic district of Odisha. A total of 2670 respondents from 112 villages of 14 blocks were interviewed for the study using a structured questionnaire by multi-stage sampling method. Descriptive statistics were reported and logistic regression was performed to estimate the relationship between the variables and knowledge of anthrax.

RESULT

Out of 2670 participants in the study, 76.25% were male and about half were illiterate. Most of the respondents (54.19%) were involved in agriculture as an occupation. 71% of the respondents had livestock in their houses and farming was the main purpose for keeping the livestock. Only one-fifth of the respondents (20.26%) knew about anthrax and a majority of them have come across the disease during community outbreaks. Almost 25.9% of livestock owners had knowledge about vaccination against anthrax disease although 83.4% of the livestock owners disposed the animal carcass by burial method.

CONCLUSION

The study findings indicated that the community members had poor knowledge of cause, symptoms, transmission and prevention of anthrax disease which may be improved by a One Health approach.

Biosensors for the Detection of Bacillus anthracis

Bacillus anthracis, present in two forms of vegetative cells and spores, is a pathogen that infects humans through contact with infected animals or contaminated animal products and is also maliciously used in terrorist acts. Therefore, a rapid and sensitive test for B. anthracis is necessary but challenging. The challenge comes from the following aspects: an accurate distinction of B. anthracis from other Bacillus species due to their high genomic similarity and the horizontal gene transfer between Bacillus members; direct detection of the B. anthracis spores without damaging them for component extraction to avoid the risk of spore atomization; and the rapid detections of B. anthracis in complex samples, such as soil and suspicious powders, without sample pretreatments and expensive large-scale equipment. Although culturing B. anthracis from samples is the conventional method for the detection of B. anthracis, it is time-consuming and the detection results would not be easy to interpret because many Bacillus species share similar phenotypic features such as a lack of motility and hemolysis, resistance to gamma phages, and so on. Intensive and extensive effort has been expended to develop reliable detection technologies, among which biosensors exhibit comprehensive advantages in terms of sensitivity, specificity, and portability. Here, we briefly review the research progress, providing highlights of the latest achievements and our own practice and experience. The contents can be summarized in three aspects: the discovery of detection targets, including genes, toxins, and other components; the creation of molecular recognition elements, such as monoclonal antibodies, single-chain antibody fragments, specific peptides, and aptamers; and the design and construction of biosensing systems by the integration of appropriate molecular recognition elements and transducer devices. These sensor devices have their own characteristics and different principles. For example, the surface plasmon resonance biosensor and quartz crystal microbalance biosensor are very sensitive, while the multiplex PCR-on-a-chip can detect multitargets. Biosensors for direct spore detection are highly recommended because they are not only fast but also avoid contamination from aerosol-containing spores. The introduction of nanotechnology has significantly improved the performance of biosensors. Superparamagnetic nanoparticles and phage-displayed gold nanoparticle ligand peptides have made the results of spore detection visible to the naked eye. Because of space constraints, many advanced biosensors for B. anthracis are not described in detail but are cited as references. Although biosensors provide a variety of options for various application scenarios, the challenges have not been fully addressed, which leaves room for the development of more advanced and practical B. anthracis detection means.

Complement C5 inhibition protects against hemolytic anemia and acute kidney injury in anthrax peptidoglycan-induced sepsis in baboons

Late-stage anthrax infections are characterized by dysregulated immune responses and hematogenous spread of Bacillus anthracis, leading to extreme bacteremia, sepsis, multiple organ failure, and, ultimately, death. Despite the bacterium being nonhemolytic, some fulminant anthrax patients develop a secondary atypical hemolytic uremic syndrome (aHUS) through unknown mechanisms. We recapitulated the pathology in baboons challenged with cell wall peptidoglycan (PGN), a polymeric, pathogen-associated molecular pattern responsible for the hemostatic dysregulation in anthrax sepsis. Similar to aHUS anthrax patients, PGN induces an initial hematocrit elevation followed by progressive hemolytic anemia and associated renal failure. Etiologically, PGN induces erythrolysis through direct excessive activation of all three complement pathways. Blunting terminal complement activation with a C5 neutralizing peptide prevented the progressive deposition of membrane attack complexes on red blood cells (RBC) and subsequent intravascular hemolysis, heme cytotoxicity, and acute kidney injury. Importantly, C5 neutralization did not prevent immune recognition of PGN and shifted the systemic inflammatory responses, consistent with improved survival in sepsis. Whereas PGN-induced hemostatic dysregulation was unchanged, C5 inhibition augmented fibrinolysis and improved the thromboischemic resolution. Overall, our study identifies PGN-driven complement activation as the pathologic mechanism underlying hemolytic anemia in anthrax and likely other gram-positive infections in which PGN is abundantly represented. Neutralization of terminal complement reactions reduces the hemolytic uremic pathology induced by PGN and could alleviate heme cytotoxicity and its associated kidney failure in gram-positive infections.

Transmission modelling of environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases: a systematic review

Transmission of many infectious diseases depends on interactions between humans, animals, and the environment. Incorporating these complex processes in transmission dynamic models can help inform policy and disease control interventions. We identified 20 diseases involving environmentally persistent pathogens (ie, pathogens that survive for more than 48 h in the environment and can cause subsequent human infections), of which indirect transmission can occur from animals to humans via the environment. Using a systematic approach, we critically appraised dynamic transmission models for environmentally persistent zoonotic diseases to quantify traits of models across diseases. 210 transmission modelling studies were identified and most studies considered diseases of domestic animals or high-income settings, or both. We found that less than half of studies validated their models to real-world data, and environmental data on pathogen persistence was rarely incorporated. Model structures varied, with few studies considering the animal-human-environment interface of transmission in the context of a One Health framework. This Review highlights the need for more data-driven modelling of these diseases and a holistic One Health approach to model these pathogens to inform disease prevention and control strategies.

An Estimate of Global Anthrax Prevalence in Livestock: A Meta-analysis

Background and Aim:

Anthrax, caused by the soil-borne spore-forming bacteria called Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists worldwide in livestock and wildlife and infects humans. It is a great hazard to livestock; henceforth, evaluating the global concerns about the disease occurrence in livestock is essential. This study was conducted to estimate the global prevalence of anthrax and predict high-risk regions, which could be an input to veterinarians to take necessary steps to control and avoid the disease.

Materials and Methods:

A literature review was performed using online databases, namely, PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, Biomed Central, and Science Direct, to extract relevant publications worldwide between 1992 and 2020.</AQ9> Initially, 174 articles were selected, and after scrutinizing, 24 articles reporting the prevalence of anthrax were found to be adequate for the final meta-analysis. The statistical study was accompanied by employing fixed effects and random effects models using R.

Results:

The pooled prevalence of anthrax globally was 28% (95% confidence interval, 26-30%) from 2452 samples through the fixed effects model. Continent-wise subgroup analysis through the random effects model revealed that the pooled prevalence of anthrax was highest in Africa (29%) and least in North America (21%).

Conclusion:

In these publications, anthrax causes economic loss to farmers and, thus, to the world. Hence, controlling anthrax infections in high-risk regions are essential by implementing appropriate control measures to decrease the effect of the disease, thereby reducing economic loss.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Modeling the spatial distribution of anthrax in southern Kenya

BACKGROUND

Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning.

METHODS

Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves.

RESULTS

Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax.

CONCLUSION

These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.

Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence

The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.

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Risk results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems.

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Climate change will impact the livestock sector throughout the food supply chain⁠—from farm production to human consumption.

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Key hazards relate to climate change trends but also, and importantly, to climate variability and climate extremes.

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Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems.

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Adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures.

Global ecological niche modelling of current and future distribution of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRv) with an ensemble modelling algorithm

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of sheep and goats that negatively impacted the farmers and pastoralists' livelihood in Africa and Asia. To overcome the disease's consequences, the OIE and FAO are collaborating efforts to eradicate the disease once and for all. We developed a predictive model that delineates suitable territories for the virus globally in support of this eradication programme. To achieve this, we used an ecological niche modelling with an ensemble algorithm. AUC-ROC curve, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa values were used to evaluate the model's performance. A TSS value greater than 0.7 was used to pool outputs of the nine model. The ensemble model has better performance than individual models by every evaluation metrics (Kappa = 0.82, TSS = 0.88 and ROC = 0.99). Annual minimum temperature (24.92%), annual maximum temperature (21.37%), goat density (18.03%) and solar radiation (14.04%) have the highest overall contribution in the ensemble model. The model indicates that India, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, DRC, Ghana, Sierra Leon, Southern Spain, France, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Armenia and Azerbaijan are highly suitable for PPRv. In 2040, suitable territories for PPRv will diminish, indicating the odds are with us in eradicating disease by 2030. We believe that this model can be used as an epidemiological tool to facilitate the global eradication programme of the disease set by the OIE and FAO.

Permafrost dynamics and the risk of anthrax transmission: a modelling study

A recent outbreak of anthrax disease, severely affecting reindeer herds in Siberia, has been reportedly associated to the presence of infected carcasses or spores released from the active layer over permafrost, which is thawing and thickening at increasing rates, thus underlying the re-emerging nature of this pathogen in the Arctic region because of warming temperatures. Anthrax is a global zoonotic and epizootic disease, with a high case-fatality ratio in infected animals. Its transmission is mediated by environmental contamination through highly resistant spores which can persist in the soil for several decades. Here we develop and analyze a new epidemiological model for anthrax transmission that is specifically tailored to the Arctic environmental conditions. The model describes transmission dynamics including also herding practices (e.g. seasonal grazing) and the role of the active layer over permafrost acting as a long-term storage of spores that could be viable for disease transmission during thawing periods. Model dynamics are investigated through linear stability analysis, Floquet theory for periodically forced systems, and a series of simulations with realistic forcings. Results show how the temporal variability of grazing and active layer thawing may influence the dynamics of anthrax disease and, specifically, favor sustained pathogen transmission. Particularly warm years, favoring deep active layers, are shown to be associated with an increase risk of anthrax outbreaks, and may also foster infections in the following years. Our results enable preliminary insights into measures (e.g. changes in herding practice) that may be adopted to decrease the risk of infection and lay the basis to possibly establish optimal procedures for preventing transmission; furthermore, they elicit the need of further investigations and observation campaigns focused on anthrax dynamics in the Arctic environment.

Anthrax in the Amhara regional state of Ethiopia; spatiotemporal analysis and environmental suitability modeling with an ensemble approach

Anthrax is one of the most neglected tropical disease affecting humans, livestock, and wildlife worldwide. The disease is caused by soil-borne spore-forming bacteria called Bacillus anthracis. A machine learning algorithm with the biomod2 package of R software was used to develop a predictive map for the Amhara regional state of Ethiopia. One hundred twenty-eight georeferenced confirmed outbreak reports of anthrax in livestock and 11 bioclimatic, eight soil characteristics, and three livestock density variables were used to train the model. The algorithm was set to run 3-fold with a total of 27 outputs for the nine selected models. An ensemble model was developed with ROC evaluation metrics set at 0.8. The ensemble model showed an improved performance than the individual models (KAPPA, TSS, and ROC values of 0.86, 0.93, and 0.99, respectively). Variables like annual precipitation (22.51 %), precipitation of warmest quarter (14.17 %), precipitation of wettest month (11.61 %), cattle density (9.67 %), sheep density (6.6 %), annual maximum temperature (6.17 %), altitude/elevation (5.24 %), and sand content (4.83 %) contributed the highest share in the ensemble model. The predicted suitable areas were primarily in the Central and Southern parts of the region. West Gojam and South Gondar zones were found highly suitable; while parts of Waghemira, North Wollo, and South Wollo were not significantly suitable. Besides, East Gojam, North Gondar, and Awi administrative zones were also reasonably suitable to Bacillus anthracis. The study can be used as a basis in the planning of prevention and control approaches of anthrax outbreaks in the region. Administrative zones like West Gojam, South Gondar, Awi, and East Gojam have to be prioritized as a risky-areas in the planning of preventive measures of anthrax in the region.

Quantification of endospores in ancient permafrost using time-resolved terbium luminescence

We describe herein a simple procedure for quantifying endospore abundances in ancient and organic-rich permafrost. We repeatedly (10x) extracted and fractionated permafrost using a tandem filter assembly composed of 3 and 0.2 μm filters. Then, the 0.2 μm filter was washed (7x), autoclaved, and the contents eluted, including dipicolinic acid (DPA). Time-resolved luminescence using Tb(EDTA) yielded a LOD of 1.46 nM DPA (6.55 × 10³ endospores/mL). In review, DPA/endospore abundances were ~2.2-fold greater in older 33 ky permafrost (258 ± 36 pmol DPA gdw^-1; 1.15 × 10⁶ ± 0.16 × 10⁶ spores gdw^-1) versus younger 19 ky permafrost (p = 0.007297). This suggests that dormancy increases with permafrost age.

C3 Opsonization of Anthrax Bacterium and Peptidoglycan Supports Recognition and Activation of Neutrophils

Neutrophils are the most abundant innate cell population and a key immune player against invading pathogens. Neutrophils can kill both bacterium and spores of Bacillus anthracis, the causative anthrax pathogen. Unlike interactions with professional phagocytes, the molecular recognition of anthrax by neutrophils is largely unknown. In this study, we investigated the role of complement C3 deposition on anthrax particles for neutrophil recognition of bacterium and/or its cell wall peptidoglycan, an abundant pathogen-associated molecular pattern that supports anthrax sepsis. C3 opsonization and recognition by complement receptors accounted for 70-80% of the affinity interactions between neutrophils and anthrax particles at subphysiologic temperatures. In contrast, C3 supported up to 50% of the anthrax particle ingestion under thermophysiologic conditions. Opsonin-dependent low affinity interactions and, to a lower extent, opsonin-independent mechanisms, provide alternative entry routes. Similarly, C3 supported 58% of peptidoglycan-induced degranulation and, to a lower extent, 23% of bacterium-induced degranulation. Interestingly, an opsonin independent mechanism mediated by complement C5, likely through C5a anaphylatoxin, primes azurophilic granules in response to anthrax particles. Overall, we show that C3 deposition supports anthrax recognition by neutrophils but is dispensable for pathogen ingestion and neutrophil degranulation, highlighting immune recognition redundancies that minimize the risk of pathogen evasion.

Review: The risk of contracting anthrax from spore-contaminated soil - A military medical perspective

Anthrax is an infectious disease of relevance for military forces. Although spores of Bacillus anthracis obiquitously occur in soil, reports on soil-borne transmission to humans are scarce. In this narrative review, the potential of soil-borne transmission of anthrax to humans is discussed based on pathogen-specific characteristics and reports on anthrax in the course of several centuries of warfare. In theory, anthrax foci can pose a potential risk of infection to animals and humans if sufficient amounts of virulent spores are present in the soil even after an extended period of time. In praxis, however, transmissions are usually due to contacts with animal products and reported events of soil-based transmissions are scarce. In the history of warfare, even in the trenches of World War I, reported anthrax cases due to soil-contaminated wounds are virtually absent. Both the perspectives and the experience of the Western hemisphere and of former Soviet Republics are presented. Based on the accessible data as provided in the review, the transmission risk of anthrax by infections of wounds due to spore-contaminated soil is considered as very low under the most circumstance. Active historic anthrax foci may, however, still pose a risk to the health of deployed soldiers.

Climatic changes and their role in emergence and re-emergence of diseases

Global warming and the associated climate changes are predictable. They are enhanced by burning of fossil fuels and the emission of huge amounts of CO₂ gas which resulted in greenhouse effect. It is expected that the average global temperature will increase with 2-5 °C in the next decades. As a result, the earth will exhibit marked climatic changes characterized by extremer weather events in the coming decades, such as the increase in temperature, rainfall, summertime, droughts, more frequent and stronger tornadoes and hurricanes. Epidemiological disease cycle includes host, pathogen and in certain cases intermediate host/vector. A complex mixture of various environmental conditions (e.g. temperature and humidity) determines the suitable habitat/ecological niche for every vector host. The availability of suitable vectors is a precondition for the emergence of vector-borne pathogens. Climate changes and global warming will have catastrophic effects on human, animal and environmental ecosystems. Pathogens, especially neglected tropical disease agents, are expected to emerge and re-emerge in several countries including Europe and North America. The lives of millions of people especially in developing countries will be at risk in direct and indirect ways. In the present review, the role of climate changes in the spread of infectious agents and their vectors is discussed. Examples of the major emerging viral, bacterial and parasitic diseases are also summarized.

The elephant-livestock interface modulates anthrax suitability in India

Anthrax is a potentially life-threatening bacterial disease that can spread between wild and livestock animals and humans. Transmission typically occurs indirectly via environmental exposure, with devastating consequences for human and animal health, as well as pastoralist economies. India has a high annual occurrence of anthrax in some regions, but a country-wide delineation of risk has not yet been undertaken. The current study modelled the geographical suitability of anthrax across India and its associated environmental features using a biogeographic application of machine learning. Both biotic and abiotic features contributed to risk across multiple scales of influence. The elephant-livestock interface was the dominant feature in delineating anthrax suitability. In addition, water-soil balance, soil chemistry and historical forest loss were also influential. These findings suggest that the elephant-livestock interface plays an important role in the cycling of anthrax in India. Livestock prevention efforts targeting this interface, particularly within anthropogenic ecotones, may yield successes in reducing ongoing transmission between animal hosts and subsequent zoonotic transmission to humans.

Factors Contributing to Anthrax Outbreaks in the Circumpolar North

A 2016 outbreak of anthrax on the Yamal Peninsula in Siberia that led to the culling of more than two hundred thousand reindeer and killed one human, resulted in significant media interests and in the reporting was often linked to thawing permafrost and ultimately climate change. Here, we review the historic context of anthrax outbreaks in the circumpolar North and explore alternative explanations for the anthrax outbreak in Western Siberia. Further, we propose a convergence model where multiple factors likely contributed to the outbreak of anthrax, including an expanded population and discontinued vaccination.

Potential distributions of Bacillus anthracis and Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis causing anthrax in Africa

BACKGROUND

Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis (Bcbva) is an emergent bacterium closely related to Bacillus anthracis, the etiological agent of anthrax. The latter has a worldwide distribution and usually causes infectious disease in mammals associated with savanna ecosystems. Bcbva was identified in humid tropical forests of Côte d'Ivoire in 2001. Here, we characterize the potential geographic distributions of Bcbva in West Africa and B. anthracis in sub-Saharan Africa using an ecological niche modeling approach.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Georeferenced occurrence data for B. anthracis and Bcbva were obtained from public data repositories and the scientific literature. Combinations of temperature, humidity, vegetation greenness, and soils values served as environmental variables in model calibrations. To predict the potential distribution of suitable environments for each pathogen across the study region, parameter values derived from the median of 10 replicates of the best-performing model for each pathogen were used. We found suitable environments predicted for B. anthracis across areas of confirmed and suspected anthrax activity in sub-Saharan Africa, including an east-west corridor from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone in the Sahel region and multiple areas in eastern, central, and southern Africa. The study area for Bcbva was restricted to West and Central Africa to reflect areas that have likely been accessible to Bcbva by dispersal. Model predicted values indicated potential suitable environments within humid forested environments. Background similarity tests in geographic space indicated statistical support to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with B. anthracis to those of Bcbva and when comparing humidity values and soils values individually. We failed to reject the null hypothesis of similarity when comparing environments associated with Bcbva to those of B. anthracis, suggesting that additional investigation is needed to provide a more robust characterization of the Bcbva niche.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This study represents the first time that the environmental and geographic distribution of Bcbva has been mapped. We document likely differences in ecological niche-and consequently in geographic distribution-between Bcbva and typical B. anthracis, and areas of possible co-occurrence between the two. We provide information crucial to guiding and improving monitoring efforts focused on these pathogens.

Identifying climate-sensitive infectious diseases in animals and humans in Northern regions

BACKGROUND

General knowledge on climate change effects and adaptation strategies has increased significantly in recent years. However, there is still a substantial information gap regarding the influence of climate change on infectious diseases and how these diseases should be identified. From a One Health perspective, zoonotic infections are of particular concern. The climate in Northern regions is changing faster than the global average. This study sought to identify climate-sensitive infectious diseases (CSIs) of relevance for humans and/or animals living in Northern regions. Inclusion criteria for CSIs were constructed using expert assessments. Based on these principles, 37 potential CSIs relevant for Northern regions were identified. A systematic literature search was performed in three databases using an explicit stepwise approach to determine whether the literature supports selection of these 37 potential CSIs.

RESULTS

In total, 1275 nominated abstracts were read and categorised using predefined criteria. Results showed that arthropod vector-borne diseases in particular are recognised as having potential to expand their distribution towards Northern latitudes and that tick-borne encephalitis and borreliosis, midge-borne bluetongue and the parasitic infection fasciolosis can be classified as climate-sensitive. Many of the other potential CSIs considered are affected by extreme weather events, but could not be clearly classified as climate-sensitive. An additional literature search comparing awareness of climate influences on potential CSIs between 1997-2006 and 2007-2016 showed an increase in the number of papers mentioning effects of climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

The four CSIs identified in this study could be targeted in a systematic surveillance programme in Northern regions. It is evident that climate change can affect the epidemiology and geographical range of many infectious diseases, but there were difficulties in identifying additional CSIs, most likely because other factors may be of equal or greater importance. However, climate-ecological dynamics are constantly under change, and therefore diseases may fall in or out of the climate-sensitive definition over time. There is increasing awareness in the literature of the effects of climate change on infectious diseases over time.

Conservation Genomics in a Changing Arctic

Although logistically challenging to study, the Arctic is a bellwether for global change and is becoming a model for questions pertinent to the persistence of biodiversity. Disruption of Arctic ecosystems is accelerating, with impacts ranging from mixing of biotic communities to individual behavioral responses. Understanding these changes is crucial for conservation and sustainable economic development. Genomic approaches are providing transformative insights into biotic responses to environmental change, but have seen limited application in the Arctic due to a series of limitations. To meet the promise of genome analyses, we urge rigorous development of biorepositories from high latitudes to provide essential libraries to improve the conservation, monitoring, and management of Arctic ecosystems through genomic approaches.

The global distribution of Bacillus anthracis and associated anthrax risk to humans, livestock and wildlife

Bacillus anthracis is a spore-forming, Gram-positive bacterium responsible for anthrax, an acute infection that most significantly affects grazing livestock and wild ungulates, but also poses a threat to human health. The geographic extent of B. anthracis is poorly understood, despite multi-decade research on anthrax epizootic and epidemic dynamics; many countries have limited or inadequate surveillance systems, even within known endemic regions. Here, we compile a global occurrence dataset of human, livestock and wildlife anthrax outbreaks. With these records, we use boosted regression trees to produce a map of the global distribution of B. anthracis as a proxy for anthrax risk. We estimate that 1.83 billion people (95% credible interval (CI): 0.59-4.16 billion) live within regions of anthrax risk, but most of that population faces little occupational exposure. More informatively, a global total of 63.8 million poor livestock keepers (95% CI: 17.5-168.6 million) and 1.1 billion livestock (95% CI: 0.4-2.3 billion) live within vulnerable regions. Human and livestock vulnerability are both concentrated in rural rainfed systems throughout arid and temperate land across Eurasia, Africa and North America. We conclude by mapping where anthrax risk could disrupt sensitive conservation efforts for wild ungulates that coincide with anthrax-prone landscapes.

Permafrost Thaw with Thermokarst Wetland-Lake and Societal-Health Risks: Dependence on Local Soil Conditions under Large-Scale Warming

A key question for the evolution of thermokarst wetlands and lakes in Arctic and sub-Arctic permafrost regions is how large-scale warming interacts with local landscape conditions in driving permafrost thaw and its spatial variability. To answer this question, which also relates to risks for ecology, society, and health, we perform systematic model simulations of various soil-permafrost cases combined with different surface-warming trends. Results show that both the prevalence and the thaw of permafrost depended strongly on local soil conditions and varied greatly with these for the same temperature conditions at the surface. Greater ice contents and depth extents, but also greater subsurface volumes thawing at depth under warming, are found for peat soils than other studied soil/rock formations. As such, more thaw-driven regime shifts in wetland/lake ecosystems, and associated releases of previously frozen carbon and pathogens, may be expected under the same surface warming for peatlands than other soil conditions. Such risks may also increase in fast permafrost thaw in mineral soils, with only small thaw-protection effects indicated in the present simulations for possible desertification enhancement of mineral soil covers.

Climatic factors control the geospatial distribution of active ingredients in Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge in China

Climate change profoundly influences the geospatial distribution of secondary metabolites and causes the geographical migration of plants. We planted seedlings of the same species in eighteen ecological regions along a latitudinal gradient in eastern and western China, in order to explore the regulation of multi-climatic factors on active ingredient accumulation in Salvia miltiorrhiza Bunge. The correlations between six active ingredient contents and ten climatic factors were investigated to clarify their relationships. We found that climatic factors not only regulated active ingredient contents but also markedly influenced their composition and led to a specific geospatial distribution of these active ingredients in China. The main climatic factors include the air temperature, precipitation, atmospheric vapour pressure and sunshine duration. Future warming in high-latitude regions could cause continued northward expansion of planting areas suitable for S. miltiorrhiza. The effect of extreme climatic conditions on active ingredients should not be overlooked. The findings of this study can help farmers scientifically choose suitable cultivation regions in the future. Furthermore, this study provides an innovative idea for the exploration of secondary metabolic responses to changing ecological factors in medicinal plants.