Land-use change and the livestock revolution increase the risk of zoonotic coronavirus transmission from rhinolophid bats

Patterns and correlates of potential range shifts of bat species in China in the context of climate change

Climate change may diminish biodiversity; thus, it is urgent to predict how species' ranges may shift in the future by integrating multiple factors involving more taxa. Bats are particularly sensitive to climate change due to their high surface-to-volume ratio. However, few studies have considered geographic variables associated with roost availability and even fewer have linked the distributions of bats to their thermoregulation and energy regulation traits. We used species distribution models to predict the potential distributions of 12 bat species in China under current and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and examined factors that could affect species' range shifts, including climatic, geographic, habitat, and human activity variables and wing surface-to-mass ratio (S-MR). The results suggest that Ia io, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum, and Rhinolophus rex should be given the highest priority for conservation in future climate conservation strategies. Most species were predicted to move northward, except for I. io and R. rex, which moved southward. Temperature seasonality, distance to forest, and distance to karst or cave were the main environmental factors affecting the potential distributions of bats. We found significant relationships between S-MR and geographic distribution, current potential distribution, and future potential distribution in the 2050s. Our work highlights the importance of analyzing range shifts of species with multifactorial approaches, especially for species traits related to thermoregulation and energy regulation, to provide targeted conservation strategies.

Modeling of Human Rabies Cases in Brazil in Different Future Global Warming Scenarios

Bat species have been observed to have the potential to expand their distribution in response to climate change, thereby influencing shifts in the spatial distribution and population dynamics of human rabies cases. In this study, we applied an ensemble niche modeling approach to project climatic suitability under different future global warming scenarios for human rabies cases in Brazil, and assessed the impact on the probability of emergence of new cases. We obtained notification records of human rabies cases in all Brazilian cities from January 2001 to August 2023, as reported by the State and Municipal Health Departments. The current and future climate data were sourced from a digital repository on the WorldClim website. The future bioclimatic variables provided were downscaled climate projections from CMIP6 (a global model ensemble) and extracted from the regionalized climate model HadGEM3-GC31-LL for three future socioeconomic scenarios over four periods (2021-2100). Seven statistical algorithms (MAXENT, MARS, RF, FDA, CTA, GAM, and GLM) were selected for modeling human rabies. Temperature seasonality was the bioclimatic variable with the highest relative contribution to both current and future consensus models. Future scenario modeling for human rabies indicated a trend of changes in the areas of occurrence, maintaining the current pace of global warming, population growth, socioeconomic instability, and the loss of natural areas. In Brazil, there are areas with a higher likelihood of climatic factors contributing to the emergence of cases. When assessing future scenarios, a change in the local climatic suitability is observed that may lead to a reduction or increase in cases, depending on the region.

A protocol and a data-based prediction to investigate virus spillover at the wildlife interface in human-dominated and protected habitats in Thailand: The Spillover Interface project

The Spillover Interface Project aims at assessing the encounter of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans along a landscape gradient from a protected area to a residential community, through areas of reforestation and agricultural land. Here, we present the protocols of the project that combine virus screening in humans, bats, rodents and dogs with camera trapping, land-use characterization, and network analyses. The project is taking place in the sub-district of Saen Thong (Nan Province, Thailand) in collaboration with local communities, the District Public Health Office, and Nanthaburi National Park. To formulate a predictive hypothesis for the Spillover Interface Project, we assess the wildlife diversity and their viral diversity that could be observed in Saen Thong through a data science analysis approach. Potential mammalian species are estimated using data from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and their associated viral diversity from a published open database. A network analysis approach is used to represent and quantify the transmission of the potential viruses hosted by the mammals present in Saen Thong, according to the IUCN. A total of 57 viruses are expected to be found and shared between 43 host species, including the domestic dog and the human species. By following the protocols presented here, the Spillover Interface Project will collect the data and samples needed to test this data-driven prediction.

Corona- and Paramyxoviruses in Bats from Brazil: A Matter of Concern?

Chiroptera are one of the most diverse mammal orders. They are considered reservoirs of main human pathogens, where coronaviruses (CoVs) and paramyxoviruses (PMVs) may be highlighted. Moreover, the growing number of publications on CoVs and PMVs in wildlife reinforces the scientific community's interest in eco-vigilance, especially because of the emergence of important human pathogens such as the SARS-CoV-2 and Nipha viruses. Considering that Brazil presents continental dimensions, is biologically rich containing one of the most diverse continental biotas and presents a rich biodiversity of animals classified in the order Chiroptera, the mapping of CoV and PMV genetics related to human pathogens is important and the aim of the present work. CoVs can be classified into four genera: Alphacoronavirus, Betacoronavirus, Deltacoronavirus and Gammacoronavirus. Delta- and gammacoronaviruses infect mainly birds, while alpha- and betacoronaviruses contain important animal and human pathogens. Almost 60% of alpha- and betacoronaviruses are related to bats, which are considered natural hosts of these viral genera members. The studies on CoV presence in bats from Brazil have mainly assayed phyllostomid, molossid and vespertilionid bats in the South, Southeast and North territories. Despite Brazil not hosting rhinophilid or pteropodid bats, which are natural reservoirs of SARS-related CoVs and henipaviruses, respectively, CoVs and PMVs reported in Brazilian bats are genetically closely related to some human pathogens. Most works performed with Brazilian bats reported alpha-CoVs that were closely related to other bat-CoVs, despite a few reports of beta-CoVs grouped in the Merbecovirus and Embecovirus subgenera. The family Paramyxoviridae includes four subfamilies (Avulavirinae, Metaparamyxovirinae, Orthoparamyxovirinae and Rubulavirinae), and bats are significant drivers of PMV cross-species viral transmission. Additionally, the studies that have evaluated PMV presence in Brazilian bats have mainly found sequences classified in the Jeilongvirus and Morbillivirus genera that belong to the Orthoparamyxovirinae subfamily. Despite the increasing amount of research on Brazilian bats, studies analyzing these samples are still scarce. When surveying the representativeness of the CoVs and PMVs found and the available genomic sequences, it can be perceived that there may be gaps in the knowledge. The continuous monitoring of viral sequences that are closely related to human pathogens may be helpful in mapping and predicting future hotspots in the emergence of zoonotic agents.

The coevolutionary mosaic of bat betacoronavirus emergence risk

Pathogen evolution is one of the least predictable components of disease emergence, particularly in nature. Here, building on principles established by the geographic mosaic theory of coevolution, we develop a quantitative, spatially explicit framework for mapping the evolutionary risk of viral emergence. Driven by interest in diseases like Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), we examine the global biogeography of bat-origin betacoronaviruses, and find that coevolutionary principles suggest geographies of risk that are distinct from the hotspots and coldspots of host richness. Further, our framework helps explain patterns like a unique pool of merbecoviruses in the Neotropics, a recently discovered lineage of divergent nobecoviruses in Madagascar, and-most importantly-hotspots of diversification in southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East that correspond to the site of previous zoonotic emergence events. Our framework may help identify hotspots of future risk that have also been previously overlooked, like West Africa and the Indian subcontinent, and may more broadly help researchers understand how host ecology shapes the evolution and diversity of pandemic threats.

Generation of three-dimensional meat-like tissue from stable pig epiblast stem cells

Cultured meat production has emerged as a breakthrough technology for the global food industry with the potential to reduce challenges associated with environmental sustainability, global public health, animal welfare, and competition for food between humans and animals. The muscle stem cell lines currently used for cultured meat cannot be passaged in vitro for extended periods of time. Here, we develop a directional differentiation system of porcine pre-gastrulation epiblast stem cells (pgEpiSCs) with stable cellular features and achieve serum-free myogenic differentiation of the pgEpiSCs. We show that the pgEpiSCs-derived skeletal muscle progenitor cells and skeletal muscle fibers have typical muscle cell characteristics and display skeletal muscle transcriptional features during myogenic differentiation. Importantly, we establish a three-dimensional differentiation system for shaping cultured tissue by screening plant-based edible scaffolds of non-animal origin, followed by the generation of pgEpiSCs-derived cultured meat. These advances provide a technical approach for the development of cultured meat.

Bat-associated microbes: Opportunities and perils, an overview

The potential biotechnological uses of bat-associated bacteria are discussed briefly, indicating avenues for biotechnological applications of bat-associated microbes. The uniqueness of bats in terms of their lifestyle, genomes and molecular immunology may predispose bats to act as disease reservoirs. Molecular phylogenetic analysis has shown several instances of bats harbouring the ancestral lineages of bacterial (Bartonella), protozoal (Plasmodium, Trypanosoma cruzi) and viral (SARS-CoV2) pathogens infecting humans. Along with the transmission of viruses from bats, we also discuss the potential roles of bat-associated bacteria, fungi, and protozoan parasites in emerging diseases. Current evidence suggests that environmental changes and interactions between wildlife, livestock, and humans contribute to the spill-over of infectious agents from bats to other hosts. Domestic animals including livestock may act as intermediate amplifying hosts for bat-origin pathogens to transmit to humans. An increasing number of studies investigating bat pathogen diversity and infection dynamics have been published. However, whether or how these infectious agents are transmitted both within bat populations and to other hosts, including humans, often remains unknown. Metagenomic approaches are uncovering the dynamics and distribution of potential pathogens in bat microbiomes, which might improve the understanding of disease emergence and transmission. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on bat zoonoses of public health concern and flag the gaps in the knowledge to enable further research and allocation of resources for tackling future outbreaks.

Predicting the fine-scale spatial distribution of zoonotic reservoirs using computer vision

Zoonotic diseases threaten human health worldwide and are often associated with anthropogenic disturbance. Predicting how disturbance influences spillover risk is critical for effective disease intervention but difficult to achieve at fine spatial scales. Here, we develop a method that learns the spatial distribution of a reservoir species from aerial imagery. Our approach uses neural networks to extract features of known or hypothesized importance from images. The spatial distribution of these features is then summarized and linked to spatially explicit reservoir presence/absence data using boosted regression trees. We demonstrate the utility of our method by applying it to the reservoir of Lassa virus, Mastomys natalensis, within the West African nations of Sierra Leone and Guinea. We show that, when trained using reservoir trapping data and publicly available aerial imagery, our framework learns relationships between environmental features and reservoir occurrence and accurately ranks areas according to the likelihood of reservoir presence.

Using drivers and transmission pathways to identify SARS-like coronavirus spillover risk hotspots

The emergence of SARS-like coronaviruses is a multi-stage process from wildlife reservoirs to people. Here we characterize multiple drivers-landscape change, host distribution, and human exposure-associated with the risk of spillover of zoonotic SARS-like coronaviruses to help inform surveillance and mitigation activities. We consider direct and indirect transmission pathways by modeling four scenarios with livestock and mammalian wildlife as potential and known reservoirs before examining how access to healthcare varies within clusters and scenarios. We found 19 clusters with differing risk factor contributions within a single country (N = 9) or transboundary (N = 10). High-risk areas were mainly closer (11-20%) rather than far ( < 1%) from healthcare. Areas far from healthcare reveal healthcare access inequalities, especially Scenario 3, which includes wild mammals and not livestock as secondary hosts. China (N = 2) and Indonesia (N = 1) had clusters with the highest risk. Our findings can help stakeholders in land use planning, integrating healthcare implementation and One Health actions.

Zoonoses in a changing world

Animals are continuously exposed to pathogens but rarely get infected, because pathogens must overcome barriers to establish successful infections. Ongoing planetary changes affect factors relevant for such infections, such as pathogen pressure and pathogen exposure. The replacement of wildlife with domestic animals shrinks the original host reservoirs, whereas expanding agricultural frontiers lead to increased contact between natural and altered ecosystems, increasing pathogen exposure and reducing the area where the original hosts can live. Climate change alters species' distributions and phenology, pathogens included, resulting in exposure to pathogens that have colonized or recolonized new areas. Globalization leads to unwilling movement of and exposure to pathogens. Because people and domestic animals are overdominant planetwide, there is increased selective pressure for pathogens to infect them. Nature conservation measures can slow down but not fully prevent spillovers. Additional and enhanced surveillance methods in potential spillover hotspots should improve early detection and allow swifter responses to emerging outbreaks.

The (Re-)Emergence and Spread of Viral Zoonotic Disease: A Perfect Storm of Human Ingenuity and Stupidity

Diseases that are transmitted from vertebrate animals to humans are referred to as zoonotic diseases. Although microbial agents such as bacteria and parasites are linked to zoonotic events, viruses account for a high percentage of zoonotic diseases that have emerged. Worryingly, the 21st century has seen a drastic increase in the emergence and re-emergence of viral zoonotic disease. Even though humans and animals have coexisted for millennia, anthropogenic factors have severely increased interactions between the two populations, thereby increasing the risk of disease spill-over. While drivers such as climate shifts, land exploitation and wildlife trade can directly affect the (re-)emergence of viral zoonotic disease, globalisation, geopolitics and social perceptions can directly facilitate the spread of these (re-)emerging diseases. This opinion paper discusses the "intelligent" nature of viruses and their exploitation of the anthropogenic factors driving the (re-)emergence and spread of viral zoonotic disease in a modernised and connected world.

Addressing the challenges of implementing evidence-based prioritisation in global health

Global health requires evidence-based approaches to improve health and decrease inequalities. In a roundtable discussion between health practitioners, funders, academics and policy-makers, we recognised key areas for improvement to deliver better-informed, sustainable and equitable global health practices. These focus on considering information-sharing mechanisms and developing evidence-based frameworks that take an adaptive function-based approach, grounded in the ability to perform and respond to prioritised needs. Increasing social engagement as well as sector and participant diversity in whole-of-society decision-making, and collaborating with and optimising on hyperlocal and global regional entities, will improve prioritisation of global health capabilities. Since the skills required to navigate drivers of pandemics, and the challenges in prioritising, capacity building and response do not sit squarely in the health sector, it is essential to integrate expertise from a broad range of fields to maximise on available knowledge during decision-making and system development. Here, we review the current assessment tools and provide seven discussion points for how improvements to implementation of evidence-based prioritisation can improve global health.

Exploring scenarios for the food system-zoonotic risk interface

The unprecedented economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic spillover events, which occur at the human-wildlife and domesticated animal interface. Spillover events are associated to varying degrees with high habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting-all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in the discourse of food systems to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of spillover events. Here, we adopt a scenario framework to highlight the many connections among food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions: the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability. Prophylactic measures to curb the emergence of zoonotic diseases are therefore closely linked to diets and food policies. Future research directions should explore more closely how they impact the risk of spillover events.

Interventions to Reduce Risk for Pathogen Spillover and Early Disease Spread to Prevent Outbreaks, Epidemics, and Pandemics

The pathogens that cause most emerging infectious diseases in humans originate in animals, particularly wildlife, and then spill over into humans. The accelerating frequency with which humans and domestic animals encounter wildlife because of activities such as land-use change, animal husbandry, and markets and trade in live wildlife has created growing opportunities for pathogen spillover. The risk of pathogen spillover and early disease spread among domestic animals and humans, however, can be reduced by stopping the clearing and degradation of tropical and subtropical forests, improving health and economic security of communities living in emerging infectious disease hotspots, enhancing biosecurity in animal husbandry, shutting down or strictly regulating wildlife markets and trade, and expanding pathogen surveillance. We summarize expert opinions on how to implement these goals to prevent outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics.

Identification of priority conservation areas based on ecosystem services and systematic conservation planning analysis

In order to reverse the trend of ecological deterioration and resolve the conflict between ecological conservation and economic development, it is necessary to evaluate the trends of ecosystem services (ESs) and unravel the relationship between ESs and environmental drivers and identify the priority areas for ESs. In this research, we used the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to quantify the variation of four important ESs (water purification, water yield, soil conservation, and habitat quality) in the Dongting Lake Basin from 2000 to 2015. During the past 15 years, water yield was declined by 3.38% and soil conservation was increased by 1.45%. Water quality purification was deteriorated with the rise in phosphorus export (5.32%) and nitrogen export (4.09%). Meanwhile, habitat quality was decreased by 3.27%. Trade-offs occurred primarily among water yield and other ESs. Social-ecological drivers importance analysis found that water yield was primarily influenced by precipitation and temperature. By contrast, water purification and habitat quality were more affected by the distribution of land use and land cover (LULC). Soil conservation was closely related to precipitation and geographical factor. Based on the distribution of ESs and the intensity of human activities, we delineated priority areas for each ESs using the systematic conservation planning tool (Marxan). LULC shifted most dramatically in water yield reserves (6.49%) with a large amount of lands conversed to cropland (4.4%) and build-up land (0.27%), which further increased the risk of water scarcity, while LULC changed less in other ESs priority areas due to human activities. Our study helps develop conservation strategies within specific area cost-effectively and provides scientific support for future conservation program of ESs formulation and adjustment.

The Virome of Bats Inhabiting Brazilian Biomes: Knowledge Gaps and Biases towards Zoonotic Viruses

Bats host a large variety of viruses, including some that may infect other vertebrates and humans. Research on bat-borne viruses attracted significant attention in recent years mainly due to epizootics caused by viruses having bats as hosts. The characterization of the viral communities of bats was then prioritized, but despite increasing efforts, there are large disparities in the geographical ranges covered and the methodologies employed around the world. As a result, large gaps remain in our current understanding of bat viromes and their role in disease emergence. This is particularly true for megadiverse regions in Latin America. This review aims to summarize the current understanding about bat viruses that inhabit Brazilian biomes, one of the most bat species-rich and diverse regions of the globe. Taking into account all known bat-associated viral families studied in Brazilian biomes, we found that almost half of all bat species (86/181 species) were not investigated for viruses at all. Moreover, only a small fraction of viral lineages or families have been studied more in depth, usually employing targeted methods with limited power to characterize a broad virus diversity. Additionally, these studies relied on limited spatiotemporal sampling and small sample sizes. Therefore, our current understanding of bat viral communities in the Brazilian biomes is limited and biased at different levels, limiting zoonotic risk assessments of bat-borne viruses. Considering these limitations, we propose strategies to bridge the existing gaps in the near future. IMPORTANCE Bat-borne viruses have attracted much attention due to zoonotic outbreaks with large consequences to humans. Because of that, virus characterization in bats has been prioritized in tropical regions of the globe. However, bat-virus research in Latin America and particularly in Brazil, which are among the most bat species-rich regions of the world, are highly biased toward zoonotic viruses and known bat reservoir species. These results have direct implication for virus studies in general but also for new zoonotic virus and spillover events characterization. The limited knowledge we currently have about the virome of Brazilian bats drastically limits any broad assessment of zoonotic viruses they carry and calls for coordinated and large-scale studies to fill this crucial knowledge gap.

Influx of Backyard Farming with Limited Biosecurity Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic Carries an Increased Risk of Zoonotic Spillover in Cambodia

Backyard farming with limited biosecurity creates a massive potential for zoonotic spillover. Cambodia, a developing nation in Southeast Asia, is a hub for emerging and endemic infectious diseases. Due to pandemic-induced job losses in the tourism sector, rumors suggest that many former Cambodian tour guides have turned to backyard farming as a source of income and food security. A cross-sectional study including 331 tour guides and 69 poultry farmers in Cambodia before and during the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was conducted. Participants were administered a survey to assess food security, income, and general farming practices. Survey data were collected to evaluate the risk perceptions for avian influenza virus (AIV), antimicrobial resistance (AMR), and general biosecurity management implemented on these poultry farms. Overall, food security decreased for 80.1% of the tour guides during the COVID-19 pandemic. Approximately 21% of the tour guides interviewed used backyard poultry farming to supplement losses of income and food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a significantly higher risk than for traditional poultry farmers. Agricultural intensification in Cambodia due to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused an influx of makeshift farms with limited biosecurity. Inadequate biosecurity measures in animal farms can facilitate spillover and contribute to future pandemics. Improved biosecurity and robust viral surveillance systems are critical for reducing the risk of spillover from backyard farms. IMPORTANCE While this study highlights COVID-19-associated changes in poultry production at a small scale in Cambodia, poultry production is expected to expand due to an increase in the global demand for poultry protein during the pandemic, changes in urbanization, and the reduction of the global pork supply caused by African swine fever (ASF). The global demand and surge in poultry products, combined with inadequate biosecurity methods, can lead to an increased risk of domestic animal and human spillovers of zoonotic pathogens such as avian influenza. Countries in regions of endemicity are often plagued by complex emergency situations (i.e., food insecurity and economic fallouts) that hinder efforts to effectively address the emergence (or reemergence) of zoonotic diseases. Thus, novel surveillance strategies for endemic and emerging infectious diseases require robust surveillance systems and biosecurity training programs to prevent future global pandemics.

Pathogen spillover driven by rapid changes in bat ecology

During recent decades, pathogens that originated in bats have become an increasing public health concern. A major challenge is to identify how those pathogens spill over into human populations to generate a pandemic threat¹. Many correlational studies associate spillover with changes in land use or other anthropogenic stressors^2,3, although the mechanisms underlying the observed correlations have not been identified⁴. One limitation is the lack of spatially and temporally explicit data on multiple spillovers, and on the connections among spillovers, reservoir host ecology and behaviour and viral dynamics. We present 25 years of data on land-use change, bat behaviour and spillover of Hendra virus from Pteropodid bats to horses in subtropical Australia. These data show that bats are responding to environmental change by persistently adopting behaviours that were previously transient responses to nutritional stress. Interactions between land-use change and climate now lead to persistent bat residency in agricultural areas, where periodic food shortages drive clusters of spillovers. Pulses of winter flowering of trees in remnant forests appeared to prevent spillover. We developed integrative Bayesian network models based on these phenomena that accurately predicted the presence or absence of clusters of spillovers in each of the 25 years. Our long-term study identifies the mechanistic connections between habitat loss, climate and increased spillover risk. It provides a framework for examining causes of bat virus spillover and for developing ecological countermeasures to prevent pandemics.

Research and Innovation Opportunities to Improve Epidemiological Knowledge and Control of Environmentally Driven Zoonoses

While zoonotic diseases are defined by transmission processes between animals and humans, for many of these diseases the presence of a contaminated environmental source is the cause of transmission. Most zoonoses depend on complex environmentally driven interactions between humans and animals, which occur along an occupational and recreational environmental continuum, including farming and animal marketing systems, environmental management systems, and community leisure environments. Environmentally driven zoonoses (EDZs) are particularly challenging to diagnose and control as their reservoirs are in the natural environment and thus often escape conventional surveillance systems that rely on host monitoring. Changes in the environment as a result of climate change [1], human population density [2], and intensification of agriculture [3] have been linked to increasing transmission events for this group of infections. As such, there is a recognised need to be able to detect the presence of EDZs in the environment as a means to better anticipate transmission events and improve source attribution investigations. Finally, the recognition that a One Health approach is needed to combat these infections is signalling to governments the need to develop policy that optimises trade-offs across human, animal, and environmental health sectors. In this review, we discuss and critically appraise the main challenges relating to the epidemiology, diagnosis, and control of environmental zoonotic disease. Using a set of exemplar diseases, including avian influenza and antimicrobial resistant pathogens, we explore the epidemiological contexts (risk factors) within which these infections not only impact human health but also contribute to animal health and environmental impacts. We then critically appraise the surveillance challenges of monitoring these infections in the environment and examine the policy trade-offs for a more integrated approach to mitigating their impacts.

The relation between avian coronaviruses and SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus

The coronaviruses (CoVs) are a family of ribonucleic acid viruses that are present in both mammals and birds. SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV originated in bats, and there is a possibility that this could be the case for SARS-CoV-2 as well. There is already evidence that a probable intermediary host is responsible for the emergence of viruses in humans as was the case for SARS-CoVs and MERS-CoV. As the SARS-CoV-2 originated from a live animal market, there is always the question if domestic animals are susceptible to these viruses and the possible risk of zoonotic transmission with mammals, including humans. This uncertainty of the transmission of the COVID-19 virus between humans and animals is of great significance worldwide. Hence, this paper focuses on the avian CoVs and their possible relation and interaction with SARS-CoV-2.

Synthesizing the connections between environmental disturbances and zoonotic spillover

Zoonotic spillover is a phenomenon characterized by the transfer of pathogens between different animal species. Most human emerging infectious diseases originate from non-human animals, and human-related environmental disturbances are the driving forces of the emergence of new human pathogens. Synthesizing the sequence of basic events involved in the emergence of new human pathogens is important for guiding the understanding, identification, and description of key aspects of human activities that can be changed to prevent new outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics. This review synthesizes the connections between environmental disturbances and increased risk of spillover events based on the One Health perspective. Anthropogenic disturbances in the environment (e.g., deforestation, habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss, wildlife exploitation) lead to changes in ecological niches, reduction of the dilution effect, increased contact between humans and other animals, changes in the incidence and load of pathogens in animal populations, and alterations in the abiotic factors of landscapes. These phenomena can increase the risk of spillover events and, potentially, facilitate new infectious disease outbreaks. Using Brazil as a study model, this review brings a discussion concerning anthropogenic activities in the Amazon region and their potential impacts on spillover risk and spread of emerging diseases in this region.

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Coronaviruses may spill over from bats to humans. This study uses epidemiological data, species distribution models, and probabilistic risk assessment to map overlap among people and SARSr-CoV bat hosts and estimate how many people are infected with bat-origin SARSr-CoVs in Southeast Asia annually.

International law reform for One Health notifications

Epidemic risk assessment and response relies on rapid information sharing. Using examples from the past decade, we discuss the limitations of the present system for outbreak notifications, which suffers from ambiguous obligations, fragile incentives, and an overly narrow focus on human outbreaks. We examine existing international legal frameworks, and provide clarity on what a successful One Health approach to proposed international law reforms-including a pandemic treaty and amendments to the International Health Regulations-would require. In particular, we focus on how a treaty would provide opportunities to simultaneously expand reporting obligations, accelerate the sharing of scientific discoveries, and strengthen existing legal frameworks, all while addressing the most complex issues that global health governance currently faces.

An argument for pandemic risk management using a multidisciplinary One Health approach to governance: an Australian case study

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and the subsequent COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant global impact. However, COVID-19 is just one of several high-impact infectious diseases that emerged from wildlife and are linked to the human relationship with nature. The rate of emergence of new zoonoses (diseases of animal origin) is increasing, driven by human-induced environmental changes that threaten biodiversity on a global scale. This increase is directly linked to environmental drivers including biodiversity loss, climate change and unsustainable resource extraction. Australia is a biodiversity hotspot and is subject to sustained and significant environmental change, increasing the risk of it being a location for pandemic origin. Moreover, the global integration of markets means that consumption trends in Australia contributes to the risk of disease spill-over in our regional neighbours in Asia-Pacific, and beyond. Despite the clear causal link between anthropogenic pressures on the environment and increasing pandemic risks, Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, like most of the world, has centred largely on public health strategies, with a clear focus on reactive management. Yet, the span of expertise and evidence relevant to the governance of pandemic risk management is much wider than public health and epidemiology. It involves animal/wildlife health, biosecurity, conservation sciences, social sciences, behavioural psychology, law, policy and economic analyses to name just a few.

The authors are a team of multidisciplinary practitioners and researchers who have worked together to analyse, synthesise, and harmonise the links between pandemic risk management approaches and issues in different disciplines to provide a holistic overview of current practice, and conclude the need for reform in Australia. We discuss the adoption of a comprehensive and interdisciplinary ‘One Health’ approach to pandemic risk management in Australia. A key goal of the One Health approach is to be proactive in countering threats of emerging infectious diseases and zoonoses through a recognition of the interdependence between human, animal, and environmental health. Developing ways to implement a One Health approach to pandemic prevention would not only reduce the risk of future pandemics emerging in or entering Australia, but also provide a model for prevention strategies around the world.

Designing for COVID-2x: Reflecting on Future-Proofing Human Habitation for the Inevitable Next Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic of 2020–2022 has revealed the vulnerability of modern society to a highly contagious airborne virus. Many spaces in the urban and built environment designed during the late twentieth and early twenty-first century are ill-suited to maintain the level of social distancing required to reduce the probability of virus transmission. Enclosed spaces—in particular, communal circulation spaces such as corridors, elevators and lobbies—have proven loci of transmission, together with circulating reticulated air and lack of proper ventilation. While urban planning needs to incorporate the lessons learnt during COVID-19 in order to future-proof our communities through the provision of well-designed greenspaces, the main burden will fall on architects, who will play an instrumental role in designing buildings that are fit-for purpose. This conceptual paper reviews the status quo and discusses a number of strategies to future-proof human habitation for the inevitable next pandemic.

Diversity regained: Precautionary approaches to COVID-19 as a phenomenon of the total environment

As COVID-19 emerged as a phenomenon of the total environment, and despite the intertwined and complex relationships that make humanity an organic part of the Bio- and Geospheres, the majority of our responses to it have been corrective in character, with few or no consideration for unintended consequences which bring about further vulnerability to unanticipated global events. Tackling COVID-19 entails a systemic and precautionary approach to human-nature relations, which we frame as regaining diversity in the Geo-, Bio-, and Anthropospheres. Its implementation requires nothing short of an overhaul in the way we interact with and build knowledge from natural and social environments. Hence, we discuss the urgency of shifting from current to precautionary approaches to COVID-19 and look, through the lens of diversity, at the anticipated benefits in four systems crucially affecting and affected by the pandemic: health, land, knowledge and innovation. Our reflections offer a glimpse of the sort of changes needed, from pursuing planetary health and creating more harmonious forms of land use to providing a multi-level platform for other ways of knowing/understanding and turning innovation into a source of global public goods. These exemplary initiatives introduce and solidify systemic thinking in policymaking and move priorities from reaction-based strategies to precautionary frameworks.

Understanding the relative risks of zoonosis emergence under contrasting approaches to meeting livestock product demand

It has been argued that intensive livestock farming increases the risk of pandemics of zoonotic origin because of long-distance livestock movements, high livestock densities, poor animal health and welfare, low disease resistance and low genetic diversity. However, data on many of these factors are limited, and analyses to date typically ignore how land use affects emerging infectious disease (EID) risks, and how these risks might vary across systems with different yields (production per unit area). Extensive, lower yielding practices typically involve larger livestock populations, poorer biosecurity, more workers and more area under farming, resulting in different, but not necessarily lower, EID risks than higher yielding systems producing the same amount of food. To move this discussion forward, we review the evidence for each of the factors that potentially link livestock production practices to EID risk. We explore how each factor might vary with yield and consider how overall risks might differ across a mix of production systems chosen to reflect in broad terms the current livestock sector at a global level and in hypothetical low- and high-yield systems matched by overall level of production. We identify significant knowledge gaps for all potential risk factors and argue these shortfalls in understanding mean we cannot currently determine whether lower or higher yielding systems would better limit the risk of future pandemics.

Present and future distribution of bat hosts of sarbecoviruses: implications for conservation and public health

Global changes in response to human encroachment into natural habitats and carbon emissions are driving the biodiversity extinction crisis and increasing disease emergence risk. Host distributions are one critical component to identify areas at risk of viral spillover, and bats act as reservoirs of diverse viruses. We developed a reproducible ecological niche modelling pipeline for bat hosts of SARS-like viruses (subgenus Sarbecovirus), given that several closely related viruses have been discovered and sarbecovirus-host interactions have gained attention since SARS-CoV-2 emergence. We assessed sampling biases and modelled current distributions of bats based on climate and landscape relationships and project future scenarios for host hotspots. The most important predictors of species distributions were temperature seasonality and cave availability. We identified concentrated host hotspots in Myanmar and projected range contractions for most species by 2100. Our projections indicate hotspots will shift east in Southeast Asia in locations greater than 2°C hotter in a fossil-fuelled development future. Hotspot shifts have implications for conservation and public health, as loss of population connectivity can lead to local extinctions, and remaining hotspots may concentrate near human populations.

Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system

A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious disease (EID) events. This Review explores the extent to which the incidence of wildlife-origin infectious disease outbreaks, which are likely to include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS and COVID-19, may be linked to excessive and increasing rates of tropical deforestation for agricultural food production and wild meat hunting and trade, which are further related to contemporary ecological crises such as global warming and mass species extinction. Here we explore a set of precautionary responses to wildlife-origin zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into tropical wildlands by promoting a global transition to diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing tropical wild meat hunting and trade by curbing urban wild meat demand, while securing access for indigenous people and local communities in remote subsistence areas; and (c) improving biosecurity and other strategies to break zoonosis transmission pathways at the wildlife-human interface and along animal source food supply chains.

Ecology, evolution and spillover of coronaviruses from bats

In the past two decades, three coronaviruses with ancestral origins in bats have emerged and caused widespread outbreaks in humans, including severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Since the first SARS epidemic in 2002-2003, the appreciation of bats as key hosts of zoonotic coronaviruses has advanced rapidly. More than 4,000 coronavirus sequences from 14 bat families have been identified, yet the true diversity of bat coronaviruses is probably much greater. Given that bats are the likely evolutionary source for several human coronaviruses, including strains that cause mild upper respiratory tract disease, their role in historic and future pandemics requires ongoing investigation. We review and integrate information on bat-coronavirus interactions at the molecular, tissue, host and population levels. We identify critical gaps in knowledge of bat coronaviruses, which relate to spillover and pandemic risk, including the pathways to zoonotic spillover, the infection dynamics within bat reservoir hosts, the role of prior adaptation in intermediate hosts for zoonotic transmission and the viral genotypes or traits that predict zoonotic capacity and pandemic potential. Filling these knowledge gaps may help prevent the next pandemic.

Do solar cycles explain the emergence of COVID-19? Neutron count comparison between the solar minima of 2008-2009 and 2019-2020

Cosmic rays are believed to be mutagenic and can stimulate virus mutation through point mutations. Neutron count on Earth ground stations is a reliable proxy to quantify cosmic ray flux. A previous study reported that the maximum flux of cosmic rays in November 2019 could be related to the emergence of COVID-19 (late November to early December). Using the latest neutron count data, this study investigated if the data from 2019 to 2020 could specifically explain the emergence of pandemic (COVID-19). The results indicate that there is no significant difference between the previous two last solar minima datasets (2008-2009 and 2019-2020; n = 24, p = 0.60). This suggests that the solar minima of 2019-2020 did not experience an increase in cosmic rays and the emergence of COVID-19 could not be solely explained by cosmic ray flux caused by solar cycles (space weather change).

Paramyxoviruses from neotropical bats suggest a novel genus and nephrotropism

Paramyxoviruses have a broad host range and geographic distribution, including human pathogens transmitted by bats, such as Nipah and Hendra viruses. In this study, we combined high-throughput sequencing and molecular approaches to investigate the presence of paramyxoviruses in neotropical bats (Microchiroptera suborder) in Brazil. We discovered and characterized three novel paramyxoviruses in the kidney tissues of apparently healthy common vampire bats (D. rotundus) and Seba's short-tailed bats (C. perspicillata), which we tentatively named Kanhgág virus (KANV), Boe virus (BOEV), and Guató virus (GUATV). In this study, we classified these viruses as putative species into the Macrojêvirus genus, a newly proposed genus of the Orthoparamyxovirinae subfamily. Using RT-PCR, we detected these viruses in 20.9% (9 out of 43) of bats tested, and viral RNA was detected exclusively in kidney tissues. Attempts to isolate infectious virus were successful for KANV and GUATV. Our results expand the viral diversity, host range, and geographical distribution of the paramyxoviruses.

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g. SARS, MERS, SADS and COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this "hidden" spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive biologically realistic range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human SARSr-CoV seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that ∼400,000 people (median: ∼50,000) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in South and Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Land Use Transitions: Progress, Challenges and Prospects

The study of land use transition has generally become an important breakthrough point to deeply understand the human-land interaction and reveal major socio-economic development issues and related environmental effects. Attempting to provide scientific support for sustainable land use and environmental management, this review systematically analyzes the overall picture, development trends, key fields and hot topics of land use transition research in the past two decades from a comprehensive perspective, which incorporates two complementary parts including the systematic quantitative literature review (based on CiteSpace) and the traditional literature review. The results reveal that: a. current research presents three characteristics, i.e., focusing on complex social issues, driven by realistic demand, and research branches becoming clearer and more systematic; b. there are four key fields and hot topics in land use transition research, i.e., i. theories and hypothesis of land use transition; ii. measuring land use transition; iii. the impacts of land use transition on “social-economic-ecological” system; iv. drivers and regulation of land use transition. However, challenges remain, current land use transition research is still to some extent fragmented, and it should be enriched by integrating with land system science. The dominant morphology biased should be redressed by underlining the recessive morphology transition process. Meanwhile, new techniques and methods are necessary to observe, track, monitor and model the recessive attributes. Finally, distant drivers of land use transition should not be ignored in this rapidly globalizing world.