The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Future climate projection across Tanzania under CMIP6 with high-resolution regional climate model

Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges faced by developing countries due to their lower adaptive capacity, with far-reaching impacts on agriculture. The mid-century period is widely regarded as a critical moment, during which adaptation is deemed essential to mitigating the associated impacts. This study presents future climate projections across Tanzania using the latest generation of global climate models (CMIP6) combined with a high-resolution regional climate model. The findings indicate that, the trends in temperature and precipitation in Tanzania from 1991 to 2020, minimum temperatures showed the highest variability with a trend of 0.3 °C, indicating significant fluctuations in minimum temperature over the decades. Maximum temperatures also showed high variability with a trend of 0.4 °C. There is a range of variability in precipitation per decade for different regions in Tanzania, with some regions experiencing significant decreases in precipitation of up to - 90.3 mm and - 127.6 mm. However, there were also regions that experienced increases in precipitation, although these increases were generally less than 4.8 mm over the decades. The projections of minimum and maximum temperatures from 2040 to 2071 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5 are projected to increase by 0.14 °C to 0.21 °C per decade, across different regions. The average projected precipitation changes per decade vary across regions. Some regions are projected to experience increases in precipitation. Other regions are projected to show decreases in precipitation within the range of - 0.6 mm to 15.5 mm and - 1.5 mm to 47.4 mm under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Overall, both scenarios show an increase in projected temperatures and precipitation for most regions in Tanzania, with some areas experiencing more significant increases compared to others. The changes in temperatures and precipitation are expected to have significant impacts on agriculture and water resources in Tanzania.

Spatial diversity of atmospheric moisture transport and climate teleconnections over Indian subcontinent at different timescales

Regional weather and climate are generally impacted by global climatic phenomenon's. Understanding the impact of global climate phenomenon's on an atmospheric branch of the hydrological cycle is crucial to make advances in skillful precipitation forecast. The present study adopts a multiscale approach based on wavelets for unravelling the linkages between teleconnections and atmospheric moisture transport over homogeneous regions of Indian sub-continent. We investigated linkages between atmospheric moisture transport quantified as monthly integrated water vapor transport (IVT) during 1951-2022 over selected homogeneous regions and eight large scale climate oscillations using wavelet and global wavelet coherence. Our results indicate significant heterogeneity in linkages across different regions and across multiple timescales. In particular, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence monthly IVT at intra-annual to inter-annual scale over all regions. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have strong connection to monthly IVT at inter-annual scale whereas over west central region both IOD and ENSO strongly influence IVT at inter-decadal scale. While the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation have an impact on IVT in the north-east and southern regions, the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic oscillation have a strong inter-annual connection to IVT, majorly in the northwest and hilly regions. Overall, the methodology offers an effective approach for capturing the dynamics of atmospheric moisture transport in time-frequency space and provide a practical reference for prediction of atmospheric moisture transport linked precipitation over different regions of Indian subcontinent.

The future of endemic and threatened birds of the Amazon in the face of global climate change

The anthropogenic impacts on the environment, including deforestation and the escalating emissions of greenhouse gases, have significantly contributed to global climate change that can lead to alterations in ecosystems. In this context, protected areas (PAs) are pillars for biodiversity conservation by being able, for example, to maintain the viability of populations of endangered species. On the other hand, the species range shifts do not follow the limits of PAs, jeopardizing the conservation of these species. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PAs is consistently undermined by impacts stemming from land use, hunting activities, and illegal exploitation, both within the designated areas and in their adjacent zones. The objectives of this study are to quantify the impacts of climate change on the distribution of threatened and endemic birds of the Amazon biome, evaluate the effectiveness of PAs in protecting the richness of threatened birds, and analyze the representativeness of species within PAs. We found with our results that climate suitability loss is above 80 for 65% of taxa in the optimistic scenario and above 93% in the pessimistic scenario. The results show that PAs are not effective in protecting the richness of Amazonian birds, just as they are ineffective in protecting most of the taxa studied when analyzed individually Although some taxa are presented as "Protected," in future scenarios these taxa may suffer major shrinkages in their distributions and consequently present population unviability. The loss of climatically suitable areas and the effectiveness of PAs can directly influence the loss of ecosystem services, fundamental to maintaining the balance of biodiversity. Therefore, our study paves the way for conservation actions aimed at these taxa so that they can mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change.

Linking African herbivore community enamel isotopes and environments: challenges, opportunities, and paleoecological implications

Paleoenvironmental reconstructions of fossil sites based on isotopic analyses of enamel typically rely on data from multiple herbivore taxa, with the assumption that this dietary spectrum represents the community's isotopic range and provides insights into local or regional vegetation patterns. However, it remains unclear how representative the sampled taxa are of the broader herbivore community and how well these data correspond to specific ecosystems. Verifying these underlying assumptions is essential to refining the utility of enamel isotopic values for paleoenvironmental reconstructions. This study explores potential links between modern herbivore community carbon isotopic enamel spectra, biome types, and climate in sub-Saharan Africa. This region is one of the most comprehensively isotopically sampled areas globally and is of particular relevance to hominin evolution. Our extensive data compilation reveals that published enamel isotopic data from sub-Saharan Africa typically sample only a small percentage of the taxa documented at most localities and that some biome types (e.g., subtropical savannas) are dramatically overrepresented relative to others (e.g., forests) in these modern data sets. Multiple statistical analyses, including linear models and cluster analyses, revealed weak relationships of associated mammalian herbivore enamel isotopic values, biome type, and climate parameters. These results confound any simple assumptions about how community isotopic profiles map onto specific environments, highlighting the need for more precise strategic approaches in extending isotopic frameworks into the past for paleoecological reconstructions. Developing more refined modern analogs will ultimately allow us to more accurately characterize the isotopic spectra of paleo-communities and link isotopic dietary signatures to specific ecosystems.

Observed changes in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region of eastern Africa

Changes in wet and dry patterns have an impact on rain-fed agriculture, crop productivity, and food security in Eastern Africa. The purpose of this research is to look into the changes in wet days and dry periods within the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) and Multi Models Ensembles (MME) of 10 historical simulations and projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models were employed as the data source. Several statistical approaches, as well as wet and dry spell thresholds, were used to calculate patterns of change in wet and dry spells on a decadal (10-year), 20, 30, and 41-year time scale. The results show the region exhibits decrease a decrease in the number of wet days and protracted dry spells in the 1980s, followed by an extraordinary (exceptional) increase in wet days in the subsequent decades (2011-2020) during March-May (MAM), June-September (JJAS), and October-December (OND). In Kenya, Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Djibouti, the probability of surpassing 7, 14, 21, 28 days (1, 2, 3, 4 spells) was less than 5%. Furthermore, floods in 1997, 2018, 2019, and 2020, as well as droughts in 1983, 1984, 1985, and 2021, were triggered by an increase or decrease in the number of wet days and dry spells over most of the region. The number of wet days is projected to decrease by 10-20% during the MAM season across Sudan, South Sudan, and central and northern Ethiopia, JJAS is projected to increase by 30-50% across central and northern Sudan. However, during the OND season, increases are projected over Uganda, Ethiopia, and Kenya under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. These findings contributed to the advancement of scientific knowledge in the IGAD region, as well as decision-making, food security, and the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies. We encourage rain-fed agriculture, crop variety planning, and irrigation supplement.

High-Quality Chromosome-Level Genome Assembly of the Corsac Fox (Vulpes corsac) Reveals Adaptation to Semiarid and Harsh Environments

The Corsac fox (Vulpes corsac) is a species of fox distributed in the arid prairie regions of Central and Northern Asia, with distinct adaptations to dry environments. Here, we applied Oxford-Nanopore sequencing and a chromosome structure capture technique to assemble the first Corsac fox genome, which was then assembled into chromosome fragments. The genome assembly has a total length of 2.2 Gb with a contig N50 of 41.62 Mb and a scaffold N50 of 132.2 Mb over 18 pseudo-chromosomal scaffolds. The genome contained approximately 32.67% of repeat sequences. A total of 20,511 protein-coding genes were predicted, of which 88.9% were functionally annotated. Phylogenetic analyses indicated a close relation to the Red fox (Vulpes vulpes) with an estimated divergence time of ~3.7 million years ago (MYA). We performed separate enrichment analyses of species-unique genes, the expanded and contracted gene families, and positively selected genes. The results suggest an enrichment of pathways related to protein synthesis and response and an evolutionary mechanism by which cells respond to protein denaturation in response to heat stress. The enrichment of pathways related to lipid and glucose metabolism, potentially preventing stress from dehydration, and positive selection of genes related to vision, as well as stress responses in harsh environments, may reveal adaptive evolutionary mechanisms in the Corsac fox under harsh drought conditions. Additional detection of positive selection for genes associated with gustatory receptors may reveal a unique desert diet strategy for the species. This high-quality genome provides a valuable resource for studying mammalian drought adaptation and evolution in the genus Vulpes.

A data driven gully head susceptibility map of Africa at 30 m resolution

Predicting gully erosion at the continental scale is challenging with current generation models. Moreover, datasets reflecting gully erosion processes are still rather scarce, especially in Africa. This study aims to bridge this gap by collecting an extensive dataset and developing a robust, empirical model that predicts gully head density at high resolution for the African continent. We developed a logistic probability model at 30 m resolution that predicts the likelihood of gully head occurrence using currently available GIS data sources. To calibrate and validate this model, we used a new database of 31,531 gully heads, mapped over 1216 sites across Africa. The exact location of all gully heads was manually mapped by trained experts using high-resolution imagery available from Google Earth. This allowed the extraction of detailed information at the gully head scale, such as the local soil surface slope. Variables included in our empirical model are topography, climate, vegetation, soil characteristics and tectonic context. They are consistent with our current process-based understanding of gully formation and evolution. The model shows that gully occurrences mainly depend on slope steepness, soil texture and vegetation cover and to a lesser extent on rainfall intensity and tectonic activity. The combination of these factors allows for robust and fairly reliable predictions of gully head occurrences, with Areas Under the Curve for validation around 0.8. Based on these results, we present the first gully head susceptibility map for Africa at a 30 m resolution.

Uncovering social and environmental factors that increase the burden of climate-sensitive diarrheal infections on children

Climate-sensitive infectious diseases are an issue of growing concern due to global warming and the related increase in the incidence of extreme weather and climate events. Diarrhea, which is strongly associated with climatic factors, remains among the leading causes of child death globally, disproportionately affecting populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). We use survey data for 51 LMICs between 2000 and 2019 in combination with gridded climate data to estimate the association between precipitation shocks and reported symptoms of diarrheal illness in young children. We account for differences in exposure risk by climate type and explore the modifying role of various social factors. We find that droughts are positively associated with diarrhea in the tropical savanna regions, particularly during the dry season and dry-to-wet and wet-to-dry transition seasons. In the humid subtropical regions, we find that heavy precipitation events are associated with increased risk of diarrhea during the dry season and the transition from dry-to-wet season. Our analysis of effect modifiers highlights certain social vulnerabilities that exacerbate these associations in the two climate zones and present opportunities for public health intervention. For example, we show that stool disposal practices, child feeding practices, and immunizing against the rotavirus modify the association between drought and diarrhea in the tropical savanna regions. In the humid subtropical regions, household's source of water and water disinfection practices modify the association between heavy precipitation and diarrhea. The evidence of effect modification varies depending on the type and duration of the precipitation shock.

Response of water and photosynthetic physiological characteristics to leaf humidification in Calligonum ebinuricum

Foliar water uptake (FWU) has increasingly been regarded as a common approach for plants to obtain water under water-limited conditions. At present, the research on FWU has mostly focused on short-term experiments; the long-term FWU plant response remains unclear; Methods: Through a field in-situ humidification control experiment, the leaves of Calligonum ebinuricum N. A. Ivanova ex Soskov were humidified, and the changes of leaf water potential, gas exchange parameters and fluorescence physiological parameters of plants after long-term and short-term FWU were discussed; The main results were as follows: (1) After short-term humidification, the water potential of Calligonum ebinuricum decreased, the non-photochemical quenching (NPQ) increased, and the plant produced photoinhibition phenomenon, indicating that short-term FWU could not alleviate drought stress. (2) After long-term humidification, the leaf water potential, chlorophyll fluorescence parameter and net photosynthetic rate (Pn) increased significantly. That is to say, after long-term FWU, the improvement of plant water status promoted the occurrence of light reaction and carbon reaction, and then increased the net photosynthetic rate (Pn); Therefore, long-term FWU is of great significance to alleviate drought stress and promote Calligonum ebinuricum growth. This study will be helpful to deepen our understanding of the drought-tolerant survival mechanism of plants in arid areas.

Different drivers of soil C accumulation in aggregates in response to altered precipitation in a semiarid grassland

Soil carbon (C) stabilization partially depends on its distribution within soil structural aggregates, and on the physicochemical processes of C within these aggregates. Changes in precipitation can alter the size distribution of aggregate classes within soils, and C input and output processes within these aggregates, which have potential consequences for soil C storage. However, the mechanisms underlying C accumulation within different aggregates under various precipitation regimes remain unclear. In this study, we conducted a 3-year field manipulation experiment to test the effects of a gradient of altered precipitation (-70%, -50%, -30%, 0%, +30%, and +50% amounts compared with ambient rainfall) on soil aggregate distribution and C accumulation in aggregates (53-250 μm, microaggregates; < 53 μm, silt and clay fractions) in a meadow steppe of northeastern China. Our results revealed that the distribution of soil microaggregates decreased along the precipitation gradient, with no detectable discrepant responses with respect to soil C accumulation within the microaggregates to precipitation treatments. In contrast, higher precipitation amounts coupled with a greater proportion of silt and clay fractions enhanced the accumulation of soil C. Importantly, structural equation models revealed that the pathways by which changes in precipitation control the accumulation of soil C varied across aggregate size fractions. Plant biomass was the main direct factor controlling the accumulation of C within soil microaggregates, whereas soil aggregate distribution and enzyme activities strongly interacted with soil C accumulation in the silt and clay fractions. Our findings imply that identifying how plant and soil aggregate properties respond to precipitation changes and drive C accumulation among soil particles will enhance the ability to predict responses of ecosystem processes to future global change.

Taking the Leap: A Binational Translocation Effort to Close the 420-Km Gap in the Baja California Lineage of the California Red-Legged Frog (Rana draytonii)

Conservation translocations, the human-mediated movement and release of a living organism for a conservation benefit, are increasingly recommended in species’ recovery plans as a technique for mitigating population declines or augmenting genetic diversity. However, translocation protocols for species with broad distributions may require regionally specific considerations to increase success, as environmental gradients may pose different constraints on population establishment and persistence in different parts of the range. Here we report on ongoing, genetically informed translocations of a threatened amphibian, California red-legged frog (Rana draytonii), from Baja California, México, to extirpated parts of the range in southern California in the United States, where contemporary stressors related to urbanization, invasive species, and aridification add to the natural environmental challenges already present for amphibians at this ‘warm edge’ of the range. We describe the collaborative binational planning required to jumpstart the effort, the fine-tuning of protocols for collection, transport, headstarting, and release of individuals, and results of multiple translocations, where time will tell whether the successes to date have reached their full potential. The steps outlined in this paper can serve as a template to inform future conservation translocations of imperiled amphibians across the U.S./México border, where the phylogenetics, historical biogeography and future habitat availability of a focal species are blind to political boundaries and critical to guiding recovery actions across the range.

Amplified Drought and Seasonal Cycle Modulate Quercus pubescens Leaf Metabolome

The intensification of summer drought expected with climate change can induce metabolism modifications in plants to face such constraints. In this experiment, we used both a targeted approach focused on flavonoids, as well as an untargeted approach, to study a broader fraction of the leaf metabolome of Quercus pubescens exposed to amplified drought. A forest site equipped with a rainfall exclusion device allowed reduction of natural rainfall by ~30% over the tree canopy. Leaves of natural drought (ND) and amplified drought (AD) plots were collected over three seasonal cycles (spring, summer, and autumn) in 2013 (the second year of rain exclusion), 2014, and 2015. As expected, Q. pubescens metabolome followed a seasonal course. In the summer of 2015, the leaf metabolome presented a shifted and early autumnal pattern because of harsher conditions during this year. Despite low metabolic modification at the global scale, our results demonstrated that 75% of Quercus metabolites were upregulated in springs when trees were exposed to AD, whereas 60 to 73% of metabolites (93% in summer 2015), such as kaempferols and quercetins, were downregulated in summers/autumns. Juglanin, a kaempferol pentoside, as well as rhododendrin derivatives, were upregulated throughout the year, suggesting an antioxidant ability of these metabolites. Those changes in terms of phenology and leaf chemistry could, in the end, affect the ecosystem functioning.

The Role of Aquifers in Sustaining the Sponge City Concept in Chinese High-Density Housing

Chinese cities and megacities occupy large areas with high population densities. These urban sectors have extensive impervious surfaces and import large amounts of water from pristine sources, putting pressure on the urban drainage systems during storms. To reduce flood risk and tackle water scarcity, the Chinese government promulgated the Sponge City concept: an ensemble of absorbing features, including permeable pavements and green roofs, to reduce urban runoff and increase water storage. We evaluate the benefits of merging the urban aquifer with conventional Sponge City features by simulating stormwater storage in aquifers with a groundwater model (MODFLOW) and a stormwater management model (SWMM). The urban aquifers of an ideal district, characterized by high-density housing and a flat morphology, collect and dissipate extreme rains (200 mm in 6 h) when the hydraulic conductivity of the subsoil is higher than 1·10−5 m/s, roughly corresponding to a medium productive aquifer. Economic and ecological benefits at the catchment scale are also discussed. Suitable shallow aquifers are individuated and discussed throughout China via a hydrogeological and geomorphological approach. The proposed method increases the percentage of water that can be controlled above that obtained through conventional Sponge City features.

Precipitation variability and risk of infectious disease in children under 5 years for 32 countries: a global analysis using Demographic and Health Survey data

BACKGROUND

Precipitation variability is a potentially important driver of infectious diseases that are leading causes of child morbidity and mortality worldwide. Disentangling the links between precipitation variability and disease risk is crucial in a changing climate. We aimed to investigate the links between precipitation variability and reported symptoms of infectious disease (cough, fever, and diarrhoea) in children younger than 5 years.

METHODS

We used nationally representative survey data collected between 2014 and 2019 from Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) surveys for 32 low-income to middle-income countries in combination with high-resolution precipitation data (via the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station dataset). We only included DHS data for which interview dates and GPS coordinates (latitude and longitude) of household clusters were available. We used a regression modelling approach to assess the relationship between different precipitation variability measures and infectious disease symptoms (cough, fever, and diarrhoea), and explored the effect modification of different climate zones and disease susceptibility factors.

FINDINGS

Our global analysis showed that anomalously wet conditions increase the risk of cough, fever, and diarrhoea symptoms in humid, subtropical regions. These health risks also increased in tropical savanna regions as a result of anomalously dry conditions. Our analysis of susceptibility factors suggests that unimproved sanitation and unsafe drinking water sources are exacerbating these effects, particularly for rural populations and in drought-prone areas in tropical savanna.

INTERPRETATION

Weather shifts can affect the survival and transmission of pathogens that are particularly harmful to young children. As our findings show, the health burden of climate-sensitive infectious diseases can be substantial and is likely to fall on populations that are already among the most disadvantaged, including households living in remote rural areas and those lacking access to safe water and sanitation infrastructure.

FUNDING

University of California, San Diego FY19 Center Launch programme.

Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Marked uncertainty in California (CA) precipitation projections challenges their use in adaptation planning in the region already experiencing severe water stress. Under global warming, a westerly jet extension in the North Pacific analogous to the El Niño-like teleconnection has been suggested as a key mechanism for CA winter precipitation changes. However, this teleconnection has not been reconciled with the well-known El Niño-like warming response or the controversial role of internal variability in the precipitation uncertainty. Here we find that internal variability contributes > 70% and > 50% of uncertainty in the CA precipitation changes and the El Niño-like warming, respectively, based on analysis of 318 climate simulations from several multi-model and large ensembles. The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation plays a key role in each contribution and in connecting the two via the westerly jet extension. This unifying understanding of the role of internal variability in CA precipitation provides critical guidance for reducing and communicating uncertainty to inform adaptation planning.

Amplified drought induced by climate change reduces seedling emergence and increases seedling mortality for two Mediterranean perennial herbs

Seedling recruitment is a bottleneck for population dynamics and range shift. The vital rates linked to recruitment by seed are impacted by amplified drought induced by climate change. In the Mediterranean region, autumn and winter seedling emergence and mortality may have strong impact on the overall seedling recruitment. However, studies focusing on the temporal dynamic of recruitment during these seasons are rare. This study was performed in a deciduous Mediterranean oak forest located in southern France and quantifies the impact of amplified drought conditions on autumn and winter seedling emergence and seedling mortality rates of two herbaceous plant species with meso-Mediterranean and supra-Mediterranean distribution (respectively, Silene italica and Silene nutans). Seedlings were followed from October 2019 to May 2020 in both undisturbed and disturbed plots where the litter and the aboveground biomass have been removed to create open microsites. Amplified drought conditions reduced seedling emergence and increased seedling mortality for both Silene species but these negative effects were dependent on soil disturbance conditions. Emergence of S. italica decreased only in undisturbed plots (-7%) whereas emergence of S. nutans decreased only in disturbed plots (-10%) under amplified drought conditions. The seedling mortality rate of S. italica was 51% higher under amplified drought conditions in undisturbed plots while that of S. nutans was 38% higher in disturbed plots. Aridification due to lower precipitation in the Mediterranean region will negatively impact the seedling recruitment of these two Silene species. Climate change effects on early vital rates may likely have major negative impacts on the overall population dynamic.

Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations

As droughts have widespread social and ecological impacts, it is critical to develop long-term adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce drought vulnerability. Climate models are important in quantifying drought changes. Here, we assess the ability of 285 CMIP6 historical simulations, from 17 models, to reproduce drought duration and severity in three observational data sets using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We used summary statistics beyond the mean and standard deviation, and devised a novel probabilistic framework, based on the Hellinger distance, to quantify the difference between observed and simulated drought characteristics. Results show that many simulations have less than ± 10 % error in reproducing the observed drought summary statistics. The hypothesis that simulations and observations are described by the same distribution cannot be rejected for more than 80 % of the grids based on our H distance framework. No single model stood out as demonstrating consistently better performance over large regions of the globe. The variance in drought statistics among the simulations is higher in the tropics compared to other latitudinal zones. Though the models capture the characteristics of dry spells well, there is considerable bias in low precipitation values. Good model performance in terms of SPI does not imply good performance in simulating low precipitation. Our study emphasizes the need to probabilistically evaluate climate model simulations in order to both pinpoint model weaknesses and identify a subset of best-performing models that are useful for impact assessments.

Increasing precipitation variability on daily-to-multiyear time scales in a warmer world

The hydrological cycle intensifies under global warming with precipitation increases. How the increased precipitation varies temporally at a given location has vital implications for regional climates and ecosystem services. On the basis of ensemble climate model projections under a high-emission scenario, here, we show that approximately two-thirds of land on Earth will face a "wetter and more variable" hydroclimate on daily to multiyear time scales. This means wider swings between wet and dry extremes. Such an amplification of precipitation variability is particularly prominent over climatologically wet regions, with percentage increases in variability more than twice those in mean precipitation. Thermodynamic effects, linked to increased moisture availability, increase precipitation variability uniformly everywhere. It is the dynamic effects (negative) linked to weakened circulation variability that make precipitation variability changes strongly region dependent. The increase in precipitation variability poses an additional challenge to the climate resilience of infrastructures and human society.

Landscape-scale restoration minimizes tree growth vulnerability to 21st century drought in a dry forest

Increasing aridity is a challenge for forest managers and reducing stand density to minimize competition is a recognized strategy to mitigate drought impacts on growth. In many dry forests, the most widespread and common forest management programs currently being implemented focus on restoration of historical stand structures, primarily to minimize fire risk and enhance watershed function. The implications of these restoration projects for drought vulnerability are not well understood. Here, we examined how planned restoration treatments in the Four Forests Restoration Initiative, the largest forest restoration project in the United States, would alter landscape-scale patterns of forest growth and drought vulnerability throughout the 21st century. Using drought-growth relationships developed within the landscape, we considered a suite of climate and treatment scenarios and estimated average forest growth and the proportion of years with extremely low growth as a measure of vulnerability to long-term decline. Climatic shifts projected for this landscape include higher temperatures and shifting seasonal precipitation that promotes lower soil moisture availability in the early growing season and greater hot-dry stress, conditions negatively associated with tree growth. However, drought severity and the magnitude of future growth declines were moderated by the thinning treatments. Compared to historical conditions, proportional growth in mid-century declines by ~40% if thinning ceases or continues at the status quo pace. By comparison, proportional growth declines by only 20% if the Four Forest Restoration Initiative treatments are fully implemented, and <10% if stands are thinned even more intensively than currently planned. Furthermore, restoration treatments resulted in dramatically fewer years with extremely low growth in the future, a recognized precursor to forest decline and eventual tree mortality. Benefits from density reduction for mitigating drought-induced growth declines are more apparent in mid-century and under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 at the end of the century. Future climate is inherently uncertain, and our results only reflect the climate projections from the representative suite of models examined. Nevertheless, these results indicate that forest restoration projects designed for other objectives also have substantial benefits for minimizing future drought vulnerability in dry forests and provide additional incentive to accelerate the pace of restoration.

Forest density intensifies the importance of snowpack to growth in water-limited pine forests

Warming climate and resulting declines in seasonal snowpack have been associated with drought stress and tree mortality in seasonally snow-covered watersheds worldwide. Meanwhile, increasing forest density has further exacerbated drought stress due to intensified tree-tree competition. Using a uniquely detailed data set of population-level forest growth (n = 2,495 sampled trees), we examined how inter-annual variability in growth relates to snow volume across a range of forest densities (e.g., competitive environments) in sites spanning a broad aridity gradient across the United States. Forest growth was positively related to snowpack in water-limited forests located at low latitude, and this relationship was intensified by forest density. However, forest growth was negatively related to snowpack in a higher latitude more energy-limited forest, and this relationship did not interact with forest density. Future reductions in snowpack may have contrasting consequences, as growth may respond positively in energy-limited forests and negatively in water-limited forests; however, these declines may be mitigated by reducing stand density through forest thinning.

Temporal and spatial variations in the frequency of compound hot, dry, and windy events in the central United States

Simultaneous low humidity, high temperature, and high wind speeds disturb the water balance in plants, intensify evapotranspiration, and can ultimately lead to crop damage. In addition, these events have been linked to flash droughts and can play a critical role in the spread of human ignited wildfires. The spatial patterns and temporal changes of hot, dry, and windy events (HDWs) for two time periods, 1949 to 2018 (70-years) and 1969 to 2018 (50-years) were analyzed in the central United States. The highest frequencies of HDWs were observed at stations in western Kansas and west Texas. Annually, the highest number of events happened concurrently with the major heat waves and droughts in 1980 and 2011. Temporally, an overall decrease in the HDWs was significant in the eastern regions of North Dakota and South Dakota, and an upward trend was significant in Texas and the western part of the Great Plains. Significant trends in HDWs co-occurred more frequently with significant trends in extreme temperatures compared with low humidity or strong wind events. The results of this study provide valuable information on the location of places where HDWs are more likely to occur. The information provided could be used to improve water management strategies.

Response of Downy Oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) to Climate Change: Transcriptome Assembly, Differential Gene Analysis and Targeted Metabolomics

Global change scenarios in the Mediterranean basin predict a precipitation reduction within the coming hundred years. Therefore, increased drought will affect forests both in terms of adaptive ecology and ecosystemic services. However, how vegetation might adapt to drought is poorly understood. In this report, four years of climate change was simulated by excluding 35% of precipitation above a downy oak forest. RNASeq data allowed us to assemble a genome-guided transcriptome. This led to the identification of differentially expressed features, which was supported by the characterization of target metabolites using a metabolomics approach. We provided 2.5 Tb of RNASeq data and the assembly of the first genome guided transcriptome of Quercus pubescens. Up to 5724 differentially expressed transcripts were obtained; 42 involved in plant response to drought. Transcript set enrichment analysis showed that drought induces an increase in oxidative pressure that is mitigated by the upregulation of ubiquitin-like protein protease, ferrochelatase, oxaloacetate decarboxylase and oxo-acid-lyase activities. Furthermore, the downregulation of auxin biosynthesis and transport, carbohydrate storage metabolism were observed as well as the concomitant accumulation of metabolites, such as oxalic acid, malate and isocitrate. Our data suggest that early metabolic changes in the resistance of Q. pubescens to drought involve a tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle shunt through the glyoxylate pathway, galactose metabolism by reducing carbohydrate storage and increased proteolytic activity.

Climate and vegetation structure shape ant communities along elevational gradients on the Colorado Plateau

Terrestrial animal communities are largely shaped by vegetation and climate. With climate also shaping vegetation, can we attribute animal patterns solely to climate? Our study observes ant community changes along climatic gradients (i.e., elevational gradients) within different habitat types (i.e., open and forest) on the Colorado Plateau in the southwestern United States. We sampled ants and vegetation along two elevational gradients spanning 1,132 m with average annual temperature and precipitation differences of 5.7°C and 645mm, respectively. We used regression analyses and structural equation modeling to compare the explanatory powers and effect sizes of climate and vegetation variables on ants. Climate variables had the strongest correlations and the largest effect sizes on ant communities, while vegetation composition, richness, and primary productivity had relatively small effects. Precipitation was the strongest predictor for most ant community metrics. Ant richness and abundance had a negative relationship with precipitation in forested habitats, and positive in open habitats. Our results show strong direct climate effects on ants with little or no effects of vegetation composition or primary productivity, but contrasting patterns between vegetation type (i.e., forested vs. open) with precipitation. This indicates vegetation structure can modulate climate responses of ant communities. Our study demonstrates climate-animal relationships may vary among vegetation types which can impact both findings from elevational studies and how communities will react to changes in climate.

Climate change and bird extinctions in the Amazon

In recent years, carbon dioxide emissions have been potentiated by several anthropogenic processes that culminate in climate change, which in turn directly threatens biodiversity and the resilience of natural ecosystems. Tropical rainforests are among the most impacted biological realms. The Belém endemism center, which is one of the several endemism centers in Amazon, is located in the most affected area within the so-called “Deforestation Arc.” Moreover, this region harbors a high concentration of Amazonian endangered bird species, of which 56% of them are considered to be under the threat of extinction. In this work, we sought to evaluate the current and future impacts of both climate change and deforestation on the distribution of endemic birds in the Belém Area of Endemism (BEA). Thus, we generated species distribution models for the 16 endemic bird species considering the current and two future gas emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). We also evaluated climate change impacts on these birds in three different dispersal contexts. Our results indicate that BAE, the endemic taxa will lose an average of 73% of suitable areas by 2050. At least six of these birds species will have less than 10% or no future suitable habitat in all emission scenarios. One of the main mechanisms used to mitigate the impacts of climate change on these species in the near future is to assess the current system of protected areas. It is necessary to ensure that these areas will continue being effective in conserving these species even under climate change. The “Gurupi Mosaic” and the “Rio-Capim” watershed are areas of great importance because they are considered climate refuges according to our study. Thus, conservation efforts should be directed to the maintenance and preservation of these two large remnants of vegetation in addition to creating ecological corridors between them.

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long-term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South-Central Semi-arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West-Central Semi-arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot-dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long-term strategic resource management decisions.

Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of "seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable". Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

Remote-Sensing-Based Water Balance for Monitoring of Evapotranspiration and Water Stress of a Mediterranean Oak–Grass Savanna

Mediterranean oak savannas (known as dehesas in Spain) are exposed to numerous threats from natural and economic causes. A close monitoring of the use of water resources and the status of the vegetation in these ecosystems can be useful tools for maintaining the production of ecological services. This study explores the estimation of evapotranspiration (ET) and water stress over a dehesa by integrating remotely sensed data into a water balance using the FAO-56 approach (VI-ETo model). Special attention is paid to the different phenology and contribution to the system’s hydrology of the two main canopy layers of the system (tree + grass). The results showed that the model accurately reproduced the dynamics of the water consumed by the vegetation, with RMSE of 0.47 mm day−1 and low biases for both, the whole system and the grass layer, when compared with flux tower measurements. The ET/ETo ratio helped to identify periods of water stress, confirmed for the grassland by measured soil water content. The modeling scheme and Sentinel-2 temporal resolution allowed the reproduction of fast and isolated ET pulses, important for understanding the hydrologic behavior of the system, confirming the adequacy of this sensor for monitoring grasslands water dynamics.

Variation in seed traits among Mediterranean oaks in Tunisia and their ecological significance

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Oaks are the foundation and dominant tree species of most Mediterranean forests. As climate models predict dramatic changes in the Mediterranean basin, a better understanding of the ecophysiology of seed persistence and germination in oaks could help define their regeneration niches. Tunisian oaks occupy distinct geographical areas, which differ in their rainfall and temperature regimes, and are thus a valuable model to investigate relationships between seed traits and species ecological requirements.

METHODS

Seed morphological traits, desiccation sensitivity level, lethal freezing temperature, embryonic axis and cotyledon sugar and lipid composition, and seed and acorn germination rates at various constant temperatures were measured in Quercus canariensis, Q. coccifera, Q. ilex and Q. suber, using seeds sampled in 22 Tunisian woodlands.

KEY RESULTS

Only faint differences were observed for desiccation sensitivity in the oak species studied. By contrast, the species differed significantly in sensitivity to freezing, germination rates at low temperature and base temperature. Quercus ilex and Q. canariensis, which occur at high elevations where frost events are frequent, showed the lowest freezing sensitivity. A significant correlation was found between hexose contents in the embryonic axis and freezing tolerance. Significant interspecific differences in the time for seeds to germinate and the time for the radicle to pierce the pericarp were observed. The ratio of pericarp mass to acorn mass differed significantly among the species and was negatively correlated with the acorn germination rate. Quercus coccifera, which is frequent in warm and arid environments, showed the highest acorn germination rate and synchrony.

CONCLUSIONS

Seed lethal temperature, seed germination time at low temperatures, the ratio of pericarp mass to acorn mass and the embryonic axis hexose content appeared to be key functional traits that may influence the geographical ranges and ecological requirements of Mediterranean oaks in Tunisia.

Tree Growth Under Climate Change: Evidence From Xylogenesis Timings and Kinetics

Tree growth is one of the most studied aspects of tree biology, particularly secondary growth. In the Mediterranean region, cambial activity is mostly determined by water availability. Climatic projections for the Mediterranean region predict more frequent and intense droughts, and longer periods without precipitation. To investigate tree growth under the predicted scenarios of climate change, a water manipulation experiment was conducted in a maritime pine stand (Pinus pinaster Aiton). In 2017, fifteen trees were divided into three groups: control, rain exclusion, and irrigation. Drought conditions were simulated by installing a continuous plastic sheet on the forest floor from March to September. Trees under irrigation treatment were watered twice a week in September. Cambial activity and xylem formation was monitored every 10 days from February 2017 until March 2018. Cell production was maximal around the spring equinox in all treatments. Trees under rain exclusion decreased cell production rates, xylogenesis duration, and latewood cell wall thickness. The extra irrigation in September did not produce noticeable differences in xylogenesis compared to trees in the control treatment. The synchronization of maximum cambial division rates around the vernal equinox (spring) could allow Mediterranean trees to mitigate the impact of summer drought. With the predicted increase in drought intensity and frequency, lower tree productivity, carbon sequestration, and wood biomass are expected.

Exogenous Isoprene Confers Physiological Benefits in a Negligible Isoprene Emitter (Acer monspessulanum L.) Under Water Deficit

Isoprene, the main volatile released by plants, is known to protect the photosynthetic apparatus in isoprene emitters submitted to oxidative pressures caused by environmental constraints. Whether ambient isoprene contributes to protect negligible plant emitters under abiotic stress conditions is less clear, and no study has tested if ambient isoprene is beneficial during drought periods in plant species that naturally release negligible isoprene emissions. This study examines the effect of exogenous isoprene (20 ppbv) on net photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and production of H₂O₂ (a reactive oxygen species: ROS) in leaves of Acer monspessulanum (a negligible isoprene emitter) submitted to three watering treatments (optimal, moderate water stress and severe water stress). Results showed that A. monspessulanum exhibited a net photosynthesis increase (+30%) and a relative leaf H₂O₂ decrease when saplings were exposed to an enriched isoprene atmosphere compared to isoprene-free conditions under moderate water deficit. Such physiological improvement under isoprene exposure was not observed under optimal watering or severe water stress. These findings suggest that when negligible isoprene emitters are surrounded by a very high concentration of isoprene in the ambient air, some plant protection mechanism occurs under moderate water deficit probably related to protection against ROS damage eventually impeding photosynthesis drop.

Diffuse light and wetting differentially affect tropical tree leaf photosynthesis

Most ecosystems experience frequent cloud cover resulting in light that is predominantly diffuse rather than direct. Moreover, these cloudy conditions are often accompanied by rain that results in wet leaf surfaces. Despite this, our understanding of photosynthesis is built upon measurements made on dry leaves experiencing direct light. Using a modified gas exchange setup, we measured the effects of diffuse light and leaf wetting on photosynthesis in canopy species from a tropical montane cloud forest. We demonstrate significant variation in species-level response to light quality independent of light intensity. Some species demonstrated 100% higher rates of photosynthesis in diffuse light, and others had 15% greater photosynthesis in direct light. Even at lower light intensities, diffuse light photosynthesis was equal to that under direct light conditions. Leaf wetting generally led to decreased photosynthesis, particularly when the leaf surface with stomata became wet; however, there was significant variation across species. Ultimately, we demonstrate that ecosystem photosynthesis is significantly altered in response to environmental conditions that are ubiquitous. Our results help to explain the observation that net ecosystem exchange can increase in cloudy conditions and can improve the representation of these processes in Earth systems models under projected scenarios of global climate change.

Quantifying Drought Sensitivity of Mediterranean Climate Vegetation to Recent Warming: A Case Study in Southern California

A combination of drought and high temperatures (“global-change-type drought”) is projected to become increasingly common in Mediterranean climate regions. Recently, Southern California has experienced record-breaking high temperatures coupled with significant precipitation deficits, which provides opportunities to investigate the impacts of high temperatures on the drought sensitivity of Mediterranean climate vegetation. Responses of different vegetation types to drought are quantified using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period 2000–2017. The contrasting responses of the vegetation types to drought are captured by the correlation and regression coefficients between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). A novel bootstrapping regression approach is used to decompose the relationships between the vegetation sensitivity (NDVI–PDSI regression slopes) and the principle climate factors (temperature and precipitation) associated with the drought. Significantly increased sensitivity to drought in warmer locations indicates the important role of temperature in exacerbating vulnerability; however, spatial precipitation variations do not demonstrate significant effects in modulating drought sensitivity. Based on annual NDVI response, chaparral is the most vulnerable community to warming, which will probably be severely affected by hotter droughts in the future. Drought sensitivity of coastal sage scrub (CSS) is also shown to be very responsive to warming in fall and winter. Grassland and developed land will likely be less affected by this warming. The sensitivity of the overall vegetation to temperature increases is particularly concerning, as it is the variable that has had the strongest secular trend in recent decades, which is expected to continue or strengthen in the future. Increased temperatures will probably alter vegetation distribution, as well as possibly increase annual grassland cover, and decrease the extent and ecological services provided by perennial woody Mediterranean climate ecosystems as well.

A low-cost hydrologic observatory for monitoring the water balance of small lakes

Global warming portends an accelerated water cycle as increased evaporation feeds atmospheric moisture and precipitation. To monitor effects on surface water levels, we describe a low-cost hydrologic observatory suitable for small to medium size lakes. The observatory comprises sensor platforms that were built in-house to compile continuous, sub-daily water budgets. The variables measured directly are lake stage (S), evaporation (E), and precipitation (P). A net inflow term (Q_net) is estimated as a residual in the continuity equation: ∆S = P - E + Q_net. We describe how to build in-lake stilling wells and floating evaporation pans using readily available materials. We assess their performance in laboratory tests and field trials. A 3-month deployment on a small Wisconsin lake (18 ha, 10 m deep) confirms that continuous estimates of ∆S, E, P, and Q_net can be made with good precision and accuracy at hourly time scales. During that deployment, daily estimates of E from the floating evaporation pans were comparable with estimates made using the more data-intensive Bowen ratio energy balance method and a mass transfer model. Since small lakes are numerically dominant and widely distributed across the globe, a network of hydrologic observatories would enable the calibration and validation of climate models and consumptive use policies at local and regional scales. And since the observatories are inexpensive and relatively simple to maintain, citizen scientists could facilitate the expansion of spatial coverage with minimal training.

Trait-based plant ecology a flawed tool in climate studies? The leaf traits of wild olive that pattern with climate are not those routinely measured

Climate-related studies have generally focussed upon physiologically well-defined 'mechanistic' traits rather than 'functional' ones relating indirectly to resource capture. Nevertheless, field responses to climate are likely to typically include both 'mechanistic' specialization to climatic extremes and 'functional' strategies that optimize resource acquisition during less climatically-severe periods. Here, this hypothesis was tested. Seventeen traits (six 'functional', six 'mechanistic' and five 'intermediate') were measured from 19 populations of oleaster (wild olive) along a climatic gradient in Morocco. Principal components analysis of the trait dataset identified size and the 'worldwide leaf economics spectrum' as PCA axes 1 and 2. However, contrary to our prediction, these axes, and commonly-measured 'functional' traits, were little correlated with climate. Instead, PCA 3, perhaps relating to water-use and succulence, together stomatal density, specific leaf water content and leaf shape, patterned with altitude, aridity, rainfall and temperature. We concluded that, at least for slow-growing species, such as oleaster, 'mechanistic' traits are key to identifying mechanisms of climatic restriction. Meaningful collaboration between 'mechanistic' and 'functional' disciplines provides the best way of improving our understanding of the global impacts of climate change on species distribution and performance.

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of Atmospheric Rivers

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

Atmospheric rivers impact California's coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

Precipitation in California is projected to become more volatile: less frequent but more extreme as global warming pushes midlatitude frontal cyclones further poleward while bolstering the atmospheric rivers (ARs), which tend to produce the region's extreme rainfall. Pollutant accumulation and delivery to coastal waters can be expected to increase, as lengthening dry spells will be increasingly punctuated by more extreme precipitation events. Coastal pollution exposes human populations to high levels of fecal bacteria and associated pathogens, which can cause a variety of health impacts. Consequently, studying the impact of atmospheric rivers as the mechanism generating pulses of water pollution in coastal areas is relevant for public health and in the context of climate change. We aimed to quantify the links between precipitation events and water quality in order to explore meteorological causes as first steps toward effective early warning systems for the benefit of population health in California and beyond. We used historical gridded daily precipitation and weekly multiple fecal bacteria indicators at ~500 monitoring locations in California's coastal waters to identify weekly associations between precipitation and water quality during 2003-09 using canonical correlation analysis to account for the nested/clustered nature of longitudinal data. We then quantified, using a recently published catalog of atmospheric rivers, the proportion of coastal pollution events attributable to ARs. Association between precipitation and fecal bacteria was strongest in Southern California. Over two-thirds of coastal water pollution spikes exceeding one standard deviation were associated with ARs. This work highlights the importance of skillful AR landfall predictions in reducing vulnerability to extreme weather improving resilience of human populations in a varying and changing climate. Quantifying the impacts of ARs on waterborne diseases is important for planning effective preventive strategies for public health.

How do climate change experiments alter plot-scale climate?

To understand and forecast biological responses to climate change, scientists frequently use field experiments that alter temperature and precipitation. Climate manipulations can manifest in complex ways, however, challenging interpretations of biological responses. We reviewed publications to compile a database of daily plot-scale climate data from 15 active-warming experiments. We find that the common practices of analysing treatments as mean or categorical changes (e.g. warmed vs. unwarmed) masks important variation in treatment effects over space and time. Our synthesis showed that measured mean warming, in plots with the same target warming within a study, differed by up to 1.6  ∘ C (63% of target), on average, across six studies with blocked designs. Variation was high across sites and designs: for example, plots differed by 1.1  ∘ C (47% of target) on average, for infrared studies with feedback control (n = 3) vs. by 2.2  ∘ C (80% of target) on average for infrared with constant wattage designs (n = 2). Warming treatments produce non-temperature effects as well, such as soil drying. The combination of these direct and indirect effects is complex and can have important biological consequences. With a case study of plant phenology across five experiments in our database, we show how accounting for drier soils with warming tripled the estimated sensitivity of budburst to temperature. We provide recommendations for future analyses, experimental design, and data sharing to improve our mechanistic understanding from climate change experiments, and thus their utility to accurately forecast species' responses.

California's Drought of the Future: A Midcentury Recreation of the Exceptional Conditions of 2012-2017

The California drought of 2012-2016 was a record-breaking event with extensive social, political, and economic repercussions. The impacts were widespread and exposed the difficulty in preparing for the effects of prolonged dry conditions. Although the lessons from this drought drove important changes to state law and policy, there is little doubt that climate change will only exacerbate future droughts. To understand the character of future drought, this paper examines this recent drought period retrospectively and prospectively, that is, as it occurred historically and if similar dynamical conditions to the historical period were to arise 30 years later (2042-2046) subject to the effects of climate change. Simulations were conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model using the pseudo global warming method. The simulated historical and future droughts are contrasted in terms of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and forest health. Overall, the midcentury drought is observed to be significantly worse, with many more extreme heat days, record-low snowpack, increased soil drying, and record-high forest mortality. With these findings in mind, the data sets developed in this study provide a means to structure future drought planning around a drought scenario that is realistic and modeled after a memorable historical analog.

Resistance of native oak to recurrent drought conditions simulating predicted climatic changes in the Mediterranean region

The capacity of a Quercus pubescens forest to resist recurrent drought was assessed on an in situ experimental platform through the measurement of a large set of traits (ecophysiological and metabolic) studied under natural drought (ND) and amplified drought (AD) induced by partial rain exclusion. This study was performed during the third and fourth years of AD, which correspond to conditions of moderate AD in 2014 and harsher AD in 2015, respectively. Although water potential (Ψ) and net photosynthesis (Pn) were noticeably reduced under AD in 2015 compared to ND, trees showed similar growth and no oxidative stress. The absence of oxidative damage could be due to a strong accumulation of α-tocopherol, suggesting that this compound is a major component of the Q. pubescens antioxidant system. Other antioxidants were rather stable under AD in 2014, but slight changes started to be observed in 2015 (carotenoids and isoprene) due to harsher conditions. Our results indicate that Q. pubescens could be able to cope with AD, for at least 4 years, likely due to its antioxidant system. However, growth decrease was observed during the fifth year (2016) of AD, suggesting that this resistance could be threatened over longer periods of recurrent drought.

Soil water content effects on net ecosystem CO2 exchange and actual evapotranspiration in a Mediterranean semiarid savanna of Central Chile

Biosphere-atmosphere water and carbon fluxes depend on ecosystem structure, and their magnitudes and seasonal behavior are driven by environmental and biological factors. We studied the seasonal behavior of net ecosystem CO₂ exchange (NEE), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), Ecosystem Respiration (RE), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) obtained by eddy covariance measurements during two years in a Mediterranean Acacia savanna ecosystem (Acacia caven) in Central Chile. The annual carbon balance was −53 g C m⁻² in 2011 and −111 g C m⁻² in 2012, showing that the ecosystem acts as a net sink of CO₂, notwithstanding water limitations on photosynthesis observed in this particularly dry period. Total annual ETa was of 128 mm in 2011 and 139 mm in 2012. Both NEE and ETa exhibited strong seasonality with peak values recorded in the winter season (July to September), as a result of ecosystem phenology, soil water content and rainfall occurrence. Consequently, the maximum carbon assimilation rate occurred in wintertime. Results show that soil water content is a major driver of GPP and RE, defining their seasonal patterns and the annual carbon assimilation capacity of the ecosystem, and also modulating the effect that solar radiation and air temperature have on NEE components at shorter time scales.

Projected impact of future climate on water-stress patterns across the Australian wheatbelt

Drought frequently limits Australian wheat production, and the expected future increase in temperatures and rainfall variability will further challenge productivity. A modelling approach captured plant×environment×management interactions to simulate water-stress patterns experienced by wheat crops at representative locations across the Australian wheatbelt for 33 climate model projections, considering the 'business as usual' emission scenario RCP8.5. The results indicate that projections of future water-stress patterns are region specific. Significant variations in projected impacts were found across climate models, providing local ranges of uncertainty to consider in planning efforts. Most climate models projected an increase in the frequency of severe water-stress conditions in the Western area, the largest producing region, and fewer severe water stresses in other regions. Where found, reductions in water-stress conditions were largely due to shorter crop cycles (a result of warmer temperatures), increased water use efficiency (resulting from increased CO2 levels), and, in some cases, increased local rainfall. Overall, simulations indicate that all areas of the Australian wheatbelt will continue to experience severe water-stress conditions (43.9, 42.6, and 40.2% for 2030, 2050, and 2070 compared with 42.8% for 1990). Given projected frequencies of severe water stress and warmer conditions, efforts towards maintaining or improving yields are essential.

The 2016 southeastern US drought: an extreme departure from centennial wetting and cooling

The fall 2016 drought in the southeastern United States (SE US) appeared exceptional based on its widespread impacts, but the current monitoring framework that only extends from 1979-present does not readily facilitate evaluation of soil-moisture anomalies in a centennial context. A new method to extend monthly gridded soil-moisture estimates back to 1895 is developed, indicating that since 1895, October-November 2016 soil moisture (0-200 cm) in the SE US was likely the second lowest on record, behind 1954. This severe drought developed rapidly and was brought on by low September-November precipitation and record-high September-November daily maximum temperatures (Tmax). Record Tmax drove record-high atmospheric moisture demand, accounting for 28% of the October-November 2016 soil-moisture anomaly. Drought and heat in fall 2016 contrasted with 20^th-century wetting and cooling in the region, but resembled conditions more common from 1895-1956. Dynamically, the exceptional drying in fall 2016 was driven by anomalous ridging over the central United States that reduced south-southwesterly moisture transports into the SE US by approximately 75%. These circulation anomalies were likely promoted by a moderate La Niña and warmth in the tropical Atlantic, but these processes accounted for very little of the SE US drying in fall 2016, implying a large role for internal atmospheric variability. The extended analysis back to 1895 indicates that SE US droughts as strong as the 2016 event are more likely than indicated from a shorter 60-year perspective, and continued multi-decadal swings in precipitation may combine with future warming to further enhance the likelihood of such events.

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21^st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21^st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21^st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest.