Cattle ranching intensification in Brazil can reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by sparing land from deforestation

Planned expansion of transportation infrastructure in Brazil has implications for the pattern of agricultural production and carbon emissions

High transportation costs have been a barrier to the expansion of agriculture in the interior of Brazil. To reduce transportation costs, Brazil launched the National Logistics Plan, aiming to expand its railway network by up to 91 % by 2035. Such a large-scale infrastructure investment raises concerns about its economic and environmental consequences. By combining geospatial estimation of transportation cost with a grid-resolving, multi-scale economic model that bridges fine-scale crop production with its trade and demand from national and global perspectives, we explore impacts of transportation infrastructure expansion on agricultural production, land use changes, and carbon emissions both locally and nationally in Brazil. We find that globally, the impacts on output and land use changes are small. However, within Brazil, the plan's primary impacts are impressive. PNL2035 results in the reduction of transportation costs by 8-23 % across states (depending on expansion's extent) in the interior Cerrado biome. This results in cropland expansion and increases in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado region. However, the increase in terrestrial carbon emissions in the Cerrado is offset by spillover effects elsewhere in Brazil, as crop production shifts away from the Southeast-South regions and accompanying change in the mix of transportation mode for farm products from roadway to more emission-efficient railway. Furthermore, we argue that the transportation infrastructure's impact on the enhanced mobility of labor and other agricultural inputs would further accentuate the regional shift in agricultural production and contribute to carbon emission mitigation. Upon its completion, PNL2035 is expected to result in the reduction of net national emissions by 1.8-30.7 million metric ton of CO2-equivalent, depending on the impacts on labor and purchased input mobility. We conclude that the omission of spillover effects due to infrastructure expansion can lead to misleading assessments of transport policies.

Nature-based solutions are critical for putting Brazil on track towards net-zero emissions by 2050

Most of the world's nations (around 130) have committed to reaching net-zero carbon dioxide or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, yet robust policies rarely underpin these ambitions. To investigate whether existing and expected national policies will allow Brazil to meet its net-zero GHG emissions pledge by 2050, we applied a detailed regional integrated assessment modelling approach. This included quantifying the role of nature-based solutions, such as the protection and restoration of ecosystems, and engineered solutions, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Our results highlight ecosystem protection as the most critical cost-effective climate mitigation measure for Brazil, whereas relying heavily on costly and not-mature-yet engineered solutions will jeopardise Brazil's chances of achieving its net-zero pledge by mid-century. We show that the full implementation of Brazil's Forest Code (FC), a key policy for emission reduction in Brazil, would be enough for the country to achieve its short-term climate targets up to 2030. However, it would reduce the gap to net-zero GHG emissions by 38% by 2050. The FC, combined with zero legal deforestation and additional large-scale ecosystem restoration, would reduce this gap by 62% by mid-century, keeping Brazil on a clear path towards net-zero GHG emissions by around 2040. While some level of deployment of negative emissions technologies will be needed for Brazil to achieve and sustain its net-zero pledge, we show that the more mitigation measures from the land-use sector, the less costly engineered solutions from the energy sector will be required. Our analysis underlines the urgent need for Brazil to go beyond existing policies to help fight climate emergency, to align its short- and long-term climate targets, and to build climate resilience while curbing biodiversity loss.

Agricultural intensification and childhood cancer in Brazil

Over the last several decades, Brazil has become both the world's leading soy producer and the world's leading consumer of hazardous pesticides. Despite identified links between pesticide exposure and carcinogenesis, there has been little population-level research on the effects of pesticide intensification on broader human health in Brazil. We estimate the relationship between expanded soy production-and related community exposure to pesticides-on childhood cancer incidence using 15 y of data on disease mortality. We find a statistically significant increase in pediatric leukemia following expanded local soy production, but timely access to treatment mitigates this relationship. We show that pesticide exposure likely occurs via water supply penetration. Our findings represent only the tip of the iceberg for substantial health externalities of high-input crop production and land use change. Our results are of particular interest in developing contexts with demand for intensified food production systems and underscore the need for stronger regulation of pesticides and increased public health attention to exposure in the broader community.

Transformation of Brazil's biomes: The dynamics and fate of agriculture and pasture expansion into native vegetation

Land use and cover change (LUCC) in Brazil encompass a complex interplay of diverse factors across different biomes. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for informed decision-making and sustainable land management. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed LUCC patterns and drivers using 30 m resolution MapBiomas Collection 6.0 data (1985-2020). By mapping deforestation of primary and secondary natural vegetation, natural vegetation regeneration, and transitions between pasture, soybean, agriculture, and irrigation, we shed light on the intricate nature of LUCC in Brazil. Our findings highlight significant and increasing trends of deforestation in primary vegetation in the country. Simultaneously, the Atlantic Forest, Caatinga, Pampa, and other regions of the Cerrado have experienced intensification processes. Notably, the pasture area in Brazil reached its peak in 2006 and has since witnessed a gradual replacement by soybean and other crops. While pasture-driven deforestation persists in most biomes, the net pasture area has only increased in the Amazon and Pantanal, decreasing in other biomes due to the conversion of pasturelands to intensive cropping in other regions. Our analysis further reveals that primary and secondary vegetation deforestation accounts for a substantial portion of overall forest loss, with 72 % and 17 %, respectively. Of the cleared areas, 48 % were in pasture, 9 % in soybean cultivation, and 16 % in other agricultural uses in 2020. Additionally, we observed a lower rate of deforestation in the Atlantic Forest, a biome that has been significantly influenced by anthropogenic activities since 1986. This holistic quantification of LUCC dynamics provides a solid foundation for understanding the impacts of these changes on local to continental-scale land-atmosphere interactions. By unraveling the complex nature of LUCC in Brazil, this study aims to contribute to the development of effective strategies for sustainable land management and decision-making processes.

Feeding climate and biodiversity goals with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives

Plant-based animal product alternatives are increasingly promoted to achieve more sustainable diets. Here, we use a global economic land use model to assess the food system-wide impacts of a global dietary shift towards these alternatives. We find a substantial reduction in the global environmental impacts by 2050 if globally 50% of the main animal products (pork, chicken, beef and milk) are substituted-net reduction of forest and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% in 2050 compared to 2020. If spared agricultural land within forest ecosystems is restored to forest, climate benefits could double, reaching 92% of the previously estimated land sector mitigation potential. Furthermore, the restored area could contribute to 13-25% of the estimated global land restoration needs under target 2 from the Kunming Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework by 2030, and future declines in ecosystem integrity by 2050 would be more than halved. The distribution of these impacts varies across regions-the main impacts on agricultural input use are in China and on environmental outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. While beef replacement provides the largest impacts, substituting multiple products is synergistic.

Economic-environmental assessment of silvo-pastoral systems in Colombia: An ecosystem service perspective

Cattle production in Colombia has an important social and economic role but causes considerable environmental impacts, such as deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions by ruminants, particularly methane. Thus, technological innovations aimed at reducing these impacts must focus on both economic and environmental sustainability. Silvo-pastoral systems (SPS) offer productivity increases while generating environmental benefits and ecosystem services and are therefore at the center of debate around sustainable production alternatives. The objective of this article is to evaluate the economic-environmental performance of two proposed SPS for a cattle fattening system for the Colombian context: (i) Urochloa brizantha cv. Toledo and (ii) Urochloa hybrid cv. Cayman, both in association with Leucaena leucocephala trees for browsing and shade provision. They are compared with the respective base scenarios of only using the grasses in monocultures. The study consists of a financial analysis, which estimates potential profitability increases in beef production in the SPS, and an environmental evaluation, which estimates the monetary values of microclimatic regulation and reduction of methane emissions. The value of methane emission reductions is then integrated into a combined economic-environmental evaluation. Results show that both SPS improve the profitability indicators of the production system and reduce the probability of economic loss. Likewise, the reduction of methane emissions in the SPS is estimated at US$6.12 per cattle, and the economic value of microclimatic regulation at US$2,026 per hectare.

Changes in global food consumption increase GHG emissions despite efficiency gains along global supply chains

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to food consumption complement production-based or territorial accounts by capturing carbon leaked through trade. Here we evaluate global consumption-based food emissions between 2000 and 2019 and underlying drivers using a physical trade flow approach and structural decomposition analysis. In 2019, emissions throughout global food supply chains reached 30 ±9% of anthropogenic GHG emissions, largely triggered by beef and dairy consumption in rapidly developing countries-while per capita emissions in developed countries with a high percentage of animal-based food declined. Emissions outsourced through international food trade dominated by beef and oil crops increased by ~1 Gt CO₂ equivalent, mainly driven by increased imports by developing countries. Population growth and per capita demand increase were key drivers to the global emissions increase (+30% and +19%, respectively) while decreasing emissions intensity from land-use activities was the major factor to offset emissions growth (-39%). Climate change mitigation may depend on incentivizing consumer and producer choices to reduce emissions-intensive food products.

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

Extension services can promote pasture restoration: Evidence from Brazil's low carbon agriculture plan

Livestock supply chains account for 14.5% of global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. There is a consensus that approaches that improve cattle productivity while enhancing carbon sequestration can contribute to the multiple goals of improving ranchers’ livelihoods and mitigating climate change. Identifying policies that simultaneously increase productivity and sequestration is therefore critical to promote sustainable growth in the livestock sector. This paper documents the impact of training and technical assistance on pasture restoration and productivity in Brazil. We found that providing technical assistance to previously trained producers promoted pasture restoration, induced farmers to use more inputs, helped them improve their practices, and increased productivity and carbon sequestration. These findings highlight the importance of providing customized information to ranchers to help them sustainably intensify.

Innovation and improved practices in the livestock sector represent key opportunities to meet global climate goals. This paper provides evidence that extension services can promote pasture restoration in cattle ranching in Brazil. We use a randomized controlled trial implemented in the context of the ABC Cerrado (a large-scale program launched in 2014 aimed at fostering technology adoption through a combination of training and technical assistance) to examine the effects of different types of extension on agricultural practices, input use, and productivity. Providing technical assistance to previously trained producers promoted pasture restoration, induced farmers to use inputs more intensively, helped them to improve their management and soil conservation practices, and substantially increased revenues. A cost–benefit calculation indicates that US$1 invested in the ABC Cerrado program increased profits by US$1.08 to $1.45. Incorporating carbon savings amplifies this return considerably.

Water Economics: An In-Depth Analysis of the Connection of Blue Water with Some Primary Level Aspects of Economic Theory I

An analysis of the following aspects of water economics was undertaken: Water as an Economic and Social Good, Modes of Government Intervention, Water Scarcity in Economic Theory and Agricultural Water Management Changes, with the support of over 300 sources. Emphasis was placed on the connection with primary aspects of economics, in contrast to the usual applicative expositions found in water economics literature. This is a novel approach comparing international bodies’ definitions with economic theory at primary level which leads, upon occasion, to serious contradictions which were exhibited in broad lines. Furthermore, it compares the global implications of these definitions to the existing reality at country level, and a lack of bilateral consistency is exhibited. The uniform picture presented at global level is shown to become a non-uniform one at country level, where sharp variations in resources and availability form a competitive market between nations, and water-rich countries already possessing a competitive advantage are shown to attain a water-based comparative advantage as well. It is shown that although at country level water has a quasi-public good character with minimal private good market existence, this is achieved with the existence of a private goods market at international level via international trade in virtual water. A novel approach to management problems stemming from authority levels starting at global level and ending at farm level is analyzed and redressed by employing reality gap theory.

Fusing Sentinel-1 and -2 to Model GEDI-Derived Vegetation Structure Characteristics in GEE for the Paraguayan Chaco

Vegetation structure is a key component in assessing habitat quality for wildlife and carbon storage capacity of forests. Studies conducted at global scale demonstrate the increasing pressure of the agricultural frontier on tropical forest, endangering their continuity and biodiversity within. The Paraguayan Chaco has been identified as one of the regions with the highest rate of deforestation in South America. Uninterrupted deforestation activities over the last 30 years have resulted in the loss of 27% of its original cover. The present study focuses on the assessment of vegetation structure characteristics for the complete Paraguayan Chaco by fusing Sentinel-1, -2 and novel spaceborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) samples from the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI). The large study area (240,000 km2) calls for a workflow in the cloud computing environment of Google Earth Engine (GEE) which efficiently processes the multi-temporal and multi-sensor data sets for extrapolation in a tile-based random forest (RF) regression model. GEDI-derived attributes of vegetation structure are available since December 2019, opening novel research perspectives to assess vegetation structure composition in remote areas and at large-scale. Therefore, the combination of global mapping missions, such as Landsat and Sentinel, are predestined to be combined with GEDI data, in order to identify priority areas for nature conservation. Nevertheless, a comprehensive assessment of the vegetation structure of the Paraguayan Chaco has not been conducted yet. For that reason, the present methodology was developed to generate the first high-resolution maps (10 m) of canopy height, total canopy cover, Plant-Area-Index and Foliage-Height-Diversity-Index. The complex ecosystems of the Paraguayan Chaco ranging from arid to humid climates can be described by canopy height values from 1.8 to 17.6 m and canopy covers from sparse to dense (total canopy cover: 0 to 78.1%). Model accuracy according to median R2 amounts to 64.0% for canopy height, 61.4% for total canopy cover, 50.6% for Plant-Area-Index and 48.0% for Foliage-Height-Diversity-Index. The generated maps of vegetation structure should promote environmental-sound land use and conservation strategies in the Paraguayan Chaco, to meet the challenges of expanding agricultural fields and increasing demand of cattle ranching products, which are dominant drivers of tropical forest loss.

The impact of land resource mismatch and land marketization on pollution emissions of industrial enterprises in China

Local governments' strategy of increasing the land supply by selling industrial land at low prices causes industrial land in China to be priced substantially below the market value. Whether under planned or market allocation, urban land is an important part of China's market-oriented economic reform. However, direct empirical research on the impact of industrial land transfer on environmental pollution is still lacking. Based on matched data, this study investigates the impact of land resource mismatch and land marketization on the pollution emissions of Chinese enterprises. Pollution emissions refer to the emission intensity of industrial enterprises' major pollutants, such as industrial water, industrial waste gas and sulfur dioxide, and it is calculated by the comprehensive index method. The impact of land resource mismatch and land marketization on the pollution emissions of Chinese enterprises is investigated using a panel fixed effect model, subsample regression, the instrumental variable method and a mediating effect model. The benchmark analysis shows that land resource mismatch increases pollution emissions. The influence mechanism analysis shows that land resource mismatch may increase the pollution emissions of enterprises by causing overinvestment and low productivity. In addition, the expanded analysis shows that China's land marketization can reduce the intensity of and have a long-term impact on the pollution emissions of enterprises. This paper provides a theoretical and scientific basis for correcting the mismatch of land resources and promoting the reform of land marketization in China.

Carbon myopia: The urgent need for integrated social, economic and environmental action in the livestock sector

Livestock have long been integral to food production systems, often not by choice but by need. While our knowledge of livestock greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation has evolved, the prevailing focus has been-somewhat myopically-on technology applications associated with mitigation. Here, we (1) examine the global distribution of livestock GHG emissions, (2) explore social, economic and environmental co-benefits and trade-offs associated with mitigation interventions and (3) critique approaches for quantifying GHG emissions. This review uncovered many insights. First, while GHG emissions from ruminant livestock are greatest in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC; globally, 66% of emissions are produced by Latin America and the Caribbean, East and southeast Asia and south Asia), the majority of mitigation strategies are designed for developed countries. This serious concern is heightened by the fact that 80% of growth in global meat production over the next decade will occur in LMIC. Second, few studies concurrently assess social, economic and environmental aspects of mitigation. Of the 54 interventions reviewed, only 16 had triple-bottom line benefit with medium-high mitigation potential. Third, while efforts designed to stimulate the adoption of strategies allowing both emissions reduction (ER) and carbon sequestration (CS) would achieve the greatest net emissions mitigation, CS measures have greater potential mitigation and co-benefits. The scientific community must shift attention away from the prevailing myopic lens on carbon, towards more holistic, systems-based, multi-metric approaches that carefully consider the raison d'être for livestock systems. Consequential life cycle assessments and systems-aligned 'socio-economic planetary boundaries' offer useful starting points that may uncover leverage points and cross-scale emergent properties. The derivation of harmonized, globally reconciled sustainability metrics requires iterative dialogue between stakeholders at all levels. Greater emphasis on the simultaneous characterization of multiple sustainability dimensions would help avoid situations where progress made in one area causes maladaptive outcomes in other areas.

Modeling the effects of steroid implant use on the environmental and economic sustainability of Brazilian beef production

Brazilian beef systems contribute 14.9% of global beef production, therefore given climate change concerns, there is a clear need to reduce environmental impacts while maintaining economic viability. This study evaluated the hypothesis that steroid implant use in Brazilian beef cattle would reduce resource use, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and economic costs of production, thereby improving environmental and economic sustainability. A deterministic model based on beef cattle population demographics, nutrition and performance was used to quantify resource inputs and GHG emissions per 1.0 × 106 kg of hot carcass weight (HCW) beef. System boundaries extended from cropping input manufacture to cattle arriving at the slaughterhouse. Beef systems were modeled using herd population dynamics, feed and performance data sourced from producers in four Brazilian states, with additional data from global databases. Implants were used in calves, growing and finishing cattle at low (LI), medium (MI), and high (HI) levels of performance enhancement, compared to nonimplanted (NI) controls. Feed use results were used in combination with producer-derived input costs to assess the economic impacts of implant use, including production costs and returns on investment. Improved FCE, ADG, and carcass weights conferred by implant use reduced the number of cattle and the time taken to produce 1.0 × 106 kg HCW beef. Compared to NI controls, the quantities of feed, land, water and fossil fuels required to produce 1.0 × 106 kg HCW beef was reduced in implanted cattle, with reductions proportional to the performance-enhancing effect of the implant (HI > MI > LI). Implant use reduced GHG emissions per 1.0 × 106 kg HCW beef by 9.4% (LI), 12.6% (MI), or 15.8% (HI). Scaling up the MI effects to represent all eligible Brazilian cattle being implanted, revealed avoided GHG emissions equivalent to the annual exhaust emissions of 62.0 × 106 cars. Economic impacts of implant use reflected the environmental results, resulting in a greater margin for the producers within each system (cow-calf through to finishing). The 6.13% increase in kg of HCW beef produced generates a cost reduction of 3.76% and an increase in the return on invested capital of 4.14% on average. Implants offer the opportunity for Brazilian beef producers to demonstrate their dedication to improving environmental and economic sustainability through improved productivity, although care must be taken to avoid negative trade-offs.

Promoting Forage Legume–Pollinator Interactions: Integrating Crop Pollination Management, Native Beekeeping and Silvopastoral Systems in Tropical Latin America

Major declines of insect pollinators are a worldwide concern. Such losses threaten human food supplies and ecosystem functions. Monocultures of pastures used to feed cattle are among the drivers of insect pollinator declines in Tropical Latin America. Plants of the legume family (fabaceae) are mostly pollinated by insects, in particular by bees. The inclusion of legumes in pastures (grass-legume system), as forage banks or the development of silvo-pastoral systems (SPS) with tree legumes, has been widely promoted to improve livestock production and soil fertility, but not to enhance ecosystem services from pollinators. Shortages of seed for the establishment of legumes as forage banks or within pastures or SPS remain a bottleneck for the improvement of ecosystem services brought about by pollinators within these systems and beyond. In this perspective paper, we provide an overview of forage legumes, their interplay with pollinators, and the ecological and socio-economic benefits of pollinator–forage legume interactions, at different scales (farm and landscape level). We further discuss the challenges and opportunities of scaling sustainably intensified cattle production systems that integrate legume forage-seed production with principles of pollinator ecology and native beekeeping. Finally, we provide interested stakeholders, policy-and decision-makers with a perspective on how such agroecosystems may be designed and scaled into multifunctional landscapes.

Rapid expansion of human impact on natural land in South America since 1985

Across South America, the expansion of commodity land uses has underpinned substantial economic development at the expense of natural land cover and associated ecosystem services. Here, we show that such human impact on the continent's land surface, specifically land use conversion and natural land cover modification, expanded by 268 million hectares (Mha), or 60%, from 1985 to 2018. By 2018, 713 Mha, or 40%, of the South American landmass was impacted by human activity. Since 1985, the area of natural tree cover decreased by 16%, and pasture, cropland, and plantation land uses increased by 23, 160, and 288%, respectively. A substantial area of disturbed natural land cover, totaling 55 Mha, had no discernable land use, representing land that is degraded in terms of ecosystem function but not economically productive. These results illustrate the extent of ongoing human appropriation of natural ecosystems in South America, which intensifies threats to ecosystem-scale functions.

Feeding efficiency gains can increase the greenhouse gas mitigation potential of the Tanzanian dairy sector

We use an attributional life cycle assessment (LCA) and simulation modelling to assess the effect of improved feeding practices and increased yields of feed crops on milk productivity and GHG emissions from the dairy sector of Tanzania's southern highlands region. We calculated direct non-CO₂ emissions from dairy production and the CO₂ emissions resulting from the demand for croplands and grasslands using a land footprint indicator. Baseline GHG emissions intensities ranged between 19.8 and 27.8 and 5.8-5.9 kg CO₂eq kg^-1 fat and protein corrected milk for the Traditional (local cattle) and Modern (improved cattle) sectors. Land use change contributed 45.8-65.8% of the total carbon footprint of dairy. Better feeding increased milk yields by up to 60.1% and reduced emissions intensities by up to 52.4 and 38.0% for the Traditional and Modern sectors, respectively. Avoided land use change was the predominant cause of reductions in GHG emissions under all the scenarios. Reducing yield gaps of concentrate feed crops lowered emissions further by 11.4-34.9% despite increasing N₂O and CO₂ emissions from soils management and input use. This study demonstrates that feed intensification has potential to increase LUC emissions from dairy production, but that fertilizer-dependent yield gains can offset this increase in emissions through avoided emissions from land use change.

Review: Mitigating the risks posed by intensification in livestock production: the examples of antimicrobial resistance and zoonoses

Major shifts in how animals are bred, raised and slaughtered are involved in the intensification of livestock systems. Globally, these changes have produced major increases in access to protein-rich foods with high levels of micronutrients. Yet the intensification of livestock systems generates numerous externalities including environmental degradation, zoonotic disease transmission and the emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes. Where the process of intensification is most advanced, the expertise, institutions and regulations required to manage these externalities have developed over time, often in response to hard lessons, crises and challenges to public health. By exploring the drivers of intensification, the foci of future intensification can be identified. Low- and middle-income (LMICs) countries are likely to experience significant intensification in livestock production in the near future; however, the lessons learned elsewhere are not being transferred rapidly enough to develop risk mitigation capacity in these settings. At present, fragmentary approaches to address these problems present an incomplete picture of livestock populations, antimicrobial use, and disease risks in LMIC settings. A worldwide improvement in evidence-based zoonotic disease and AMR management within intensifying livestock production systems demands better information on the burden of livestock-associated disease, antimicrobial use and resistance and resources allocated to mitigation.

A food system revolution for China in the post-pandemic world

The COVID-19 pandemic is worsening food shortages in food deficit countries, such as China, which rely on import for domestic food consumption. We argue that fundamental revolution in China’s livestock system can meet about 50% of its consumption of livestock products and thereby reduce the country’s reliance on imports. Three food system revolutions that can greatly reduce China’s reliance on imports are technically and economically feasible, and generate high eco-system benefits: (1) organic or inorganic based microbial feed protein production to substitute imported feed protein, (2) vegetation greening and fodder production through grassland restoration to reduce import of ruminant animal products, and (3) insect protein based fish-plant production and offshore marine restoration to replace red meat consumption and increase recycling of manure. Together these revolutions can accelerate progress towards multiple Sustainable Development Goals in exporting countries.

Assessing the effects of agricultural intensification on natural habitats and biodiversity in Southern Amazonia

The ongoing trend toward agricultural intensification in Southern Amazonia makes it essential to explore the future impacts of this development on the extent of natural habitats and biodiversity. This type of analysis requires information on future pathways of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) under different socio-economic conditions and policy settings. For this purpose, the spatially explicit land-use change model LandSHIFT was applied to calculate a set of high-resolution land-use change scenarios for the Brazilian states Para and Mato Grosso. The period of the analysis were the years 2010-2030. The resulting land-use maps were combined with maps depicting vertebrate species diversity in order to examine the impact of natural habitat loss on species ranges as well as the overall LULCC-induced effect on vertebrate diversity as expressed by the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII). The results of this study indicate a general decrease in biodiversity intactness in all investigated scenarios. However, agricultural intensification combined with diversified environmental protection policies show least impact of LULCC on vertebrate species richness and conservation of natural habitats compared to scenarios with low agricultural intensification or scenarios with less effective conservation policies.

Using Surveillance of Animal Bite Patients to Decipher Potential Risks of Rabies Exposure From Domestic Animals and Wildlife in Brazil

Direct contact with domestic animals and wildlife is linked to zoonotic spillover risk. Patients presenting with animal-bite injuries provide a potentially valuable source of surveillance data on rabies viruses that are transmitted primarily by animal bites. Here, we used passive surveillance data of bite patients to identify areas with high potential risk of rabies transmission to humans across Brazil, a highly diverse and populous country, where rabies circulates in a range of species. We analyzed one decade of bite patient data from the national health information system (SINAN) comprising over 500,000 patients attending public health facilities after being bitten by a domestic or wild animal. Our analyses show that, between 2008 and 2016, patients were mostly bitten by domestic dogs (average annual dog bite patients: 502,043 [436,391-544,564], annual incidence per state: 258 dog bites/100,000 persons) and cats (76,512 [56,588-97,580] cat bites, 41 cat bites/100,000/year), but bites from bats (4,172 [3,351-5,365] bat bites, 2.3/100,000/year), primates (3,320 [3,013-3,710] primate bites, 2.0/100,000/year), herbivores (1,908 [1,492-2,298] herbivore bites, 0.9/100,000/year) and foxes (883 [609-1,086] fox bites, 0.6/100,000/year) were also considerable. Incidence of bites due to dogs and herbivores remained relatively stable over the last decade. In contrast bites by cats and bats increased while bites by primates and foxes decreased. Bites by wild animals occurred in all states but were more frequent in the North and Northeast of Brazil, with over 3-fold differences in incidence between states across all animal groups. Most bites reported from domestic animals and wildlife occurred in urban settings (71%), except for bites from foxes, which were higher in rural settings (57%). Based upon the Ministry of Health guidelines, only half of patients received the correct Post-Exposure Prophylaxis following a bite by a suspect rabid animal. We identified areas and species of high-risk for potential zoonotic transmission of rabies in Brazil and reveal that, despite increasing human encroachment into natural ecosystems, only patients reporting bites by bats increased. Our study calls for future research to identity the socio-ecological factors underlying bites and the preventive measures needed to reduce their incidence and potential risk of rabies transmission.

Climate Change and Public Policies in the Brazilian Amazon State of Mato Grosso: Perceptions and Challenges

This study examines how key stakeholders in agriculture in a number of municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon state of Mato Grosso are incorporating and adapting to public policies on climate change. Fieldwork and semi-structured interviews conducted in 2014 and 2018 with key stakeholders in the region were analyzed to assess the effectiveness of public policies incorporating climate change factors. Data obtained from documents from national institutions complemented these interviews. The results show that although local government claims that its mission is economic, social and sustainable development, and although public institutions and stakeholders repeat internationally recognized protocols and agreements in their communications, in actual fact, these are not reflected by any change in institutional behavior.

Measured ammonia emissions from tropical and subtropical pastures: A comparison with 2006 IPCC, 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC, and EMEP/EEA (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme and European Environmental Agency) inventory estimates

Agriculture is the largest source of ammonia (NH₃) emissions. As NH₃ is an indirect greenhouse gas, NH₃ measurements are crucial to improving greenhouse gas emission inventory estimates. Moreover, NH₃ emissions have wider implications for environmental and human health. Only a few studies have measured NH₃ emissions from pastures in the tropics and subtropics and none has compared emissions to inventory estimates. The objectives of this study were to (1) measure NH₃ emissions from dairy pastures in tropical and subtropical regions; (2) calculate NH₃ emissions factors (EF) for each campaign; and (3) compare measured EF with those based on the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1, 2019 Refinement to the 2006 IPCC Tier 1, and the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme/European Environmental Agency (EMPE/EEA) Tier 2 inventory estimates. Pasture NH₃ emissions were measured on 3 dairy farms in Costa Rica. On each dairy, NH₃ emissions were measured twice during the wet season and once during the dry season using a micrometeorological integrated horizontal-flux mass-balance method. Emissions were measured from excreta (dung and urine) deposited by grazing cattle and the subsequent application of organic (slurry) or synthetic fertilizer (ammonium nitrate or urea). Measured EF for all campaigns [from grazing cattle excreta and any subsequent slurry or fertilizer application; 4.9 ± 0.9% of applied nitrogen (mean ± SE)] were similar to those of the EMEP/EEA Tier 2 approach (6.1 ± 0.9%; mean ± SE) and 4 times lower than 2006 IPCC and 2019 Refinement to 2006 IPCC Tier 1 default estimates (17.7 ± 1.4 and 18.2 ± 0.9%, respectively; mean ± SE). Measured EF for excreta deposited on pasture and excreta both deposited on pasture and slurry application [3.9 ± 2.1 and 4.2 ± 2.1% (mean ± 95% CI), respectively] were 5 times lower than default EF assumed by 2006 IPCC and 2019 Refinement to 2006 IPCC methodology (both 20 and 21%, respectively), whereas EMEP/EAA estimates were similar [6.0 and 4.6 ± 0.3% (mean ± 95% CI), respectively]. This suggests an overestimation of EF from excreta deposited on pasture and slurry applications in tropical and subtropical regions by IPCC methodologies. Furthermore, rainfall, which is not included as a parameter in the current EMEP/EEA Tier 2 methodology, appeared to reduce NH₃ emissions, suggesting that accounting for this in the inventory methodologies could improve inventory estimates.

Characterising the spatial distribution of opportunities and constraints for land sparing in Brazil

Brazil is a megadiversity country with more tropical forest than any other, and is a leading agricultural producer. The technical potential to reconcile these roles by concentrating agriculture on existing farmland and sparing land for nature is well-established, but the spatial overlap of this potential with conservation priorities and institutional constraints remains poorly understood. We mapped conservation priorities, food production potential and socio-economic variables likely to influence the success of land sparing. Pasture occupies 70% of agricultural land but contributes ≤11% of the domestic food supply. Increasing yields on pasture would add little to Brazil’s food supply but – if combined with concerted conservation and restoration policies – provides the greatest opportunities for reducing land demand. Our study illustrates a method for identifying municipalities where land-sparing policies are most likely to succeed, and those where further effort is needed to overcome constraints such as land tenure insecurity, lack of access to technical advice, labour constraints, and non-compliance with environmental law.

Integrated Solutions for the Water-Energy-Land Nexus: Are Global Models Rising to the Challenge?

Increasing human demands for water, energy, food and materials, are expected to accentuate resource supply challenges over the coming decades. Experience suggests that long-term strategies for a single sector could yield both trade-offs and synergies for other sectors. Thus, long-term transition pathways for linked resource systems should be informed using nexus approaches. Global integrated assessment models can represent the synergies and trade-offs inherent in the exploitation of water, energy and land (WEL) resources, including the impacts of international trade and climate policies. In this study, we review the current state-of-the-science in global integrated assessment modeling with an emphasis on how models have incorporated integrated WEL solutions. A large-scale assessment of the relevant literature was performed using online databases and structured keyword search queries. The results point to the following main opportunities for future research and model development: (1) improving the temporal and spatial resolution of economic models for the energy and water sectors; (2) balancing energy and land requirements across sectors; (3) integrated representation of the role of distribution infrastructure in alleviating resource challenges; (4) modeling of solution impacts on downstream environmental quality; (5) improved representation of the implementation challenges stemming from regional financial and institutional capacity; (6) enabling dynamic multi-sectoral vulnerability and adaptation needs assessment; and (7) the development of fully-coupled assessment frameworks based on consistent, scalable, and regionally-transferable platforms. Improved database management and computational power are needed to address many of these modeling challenges at a global-scale.

Expanding the Soy Moratorium to Brazil's Cerrado

The Cerrado biome in Brazil is a tropical savanna and an important global biodiversity hot spot. Today, only a fraction of its original area remains undisturbed, and this habitat is at risk of conversion to agriculture, especially to soybeans. Here, we present the first quantitative analysis of expanding the Soy Moratorium (SoyM) from the Brazilian Amazon to the Cerrado biome. The SoyM expansion to the Cerrado would prevent the direct conversion of 3.6 million ha of native vegetation to soybeans by 2050. Nationally, this would require a reduction in soybean area of approximately 2%. Relative risk of future native vegetation conversion for soybeans would be driven by the Brazilian domestic market, China, and the European Union. We conclude that, to preserve the Cerrado's biodiversity and ecosystem services, urgent action is required, including a zero native vegetation conversion agreement such as the SoyM.

Applying an environmental public health lens to the industrialization of food animal production in ten low- and middle-income countries

Background

Industrial food animal production (IFAP) is characterized by dense animal housing, high throughput, specialization, vertical integration, and corporate consolidation. Research in high-income countries has documented impacts on public health, the environment, and animal welfare. IFAP is proliferating in some low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where increased consumption of animal-source foods has occurred alongside rising incomes and efforts to address undernutrition. However, in these countries IFAP’s negative externalities could be amplified by inadequate infrastructure and resources to document issues and implement controls.

Methods

Using UN FAOSTAT data, we selected ten LMICs where food animal production is expanding and assessed patterns of IFAP growth. We conducted a mixed methods review to explore factors affecting growth, evidence of impacts, and information gaps; we searched several databases for sources in English, Spanish, and Portuguese. Data were extracted from 450+ sources, comprising peer-reviewed literature, government documents, NGO reports, and news articles.

Results

In the selected LMICs, not only has livestock production increased, but the nature of expansion appears to have involved industrialized methods, to varying extents based on species and location. Expansion was promoted in some countries by explicit government policies. Animal densities, corporate structure, and pharmaceutical reliance in some areas mirrored conditions found in high-income countries. There were many reported weaknesses in regulation and capacity for enforcement surrounding production and animal welfare. Global trade increasingly influences movement of and access to inputs such as feed. There was a nascent, compelling body of scientific literature documenting IFAP’s negative environmental and public health externalities in some countries.

Conclusions

LMICs may be attracted to IFAP for economic development and food security, as well as the potential for increasing access to animal-source foods and the role these foods can play in alleviating undernutrition. IFAP, however, is resource intensive. Industrialized production methods likely result in serious negative public health, environmental, and animal welfare impacts in LMICs. To our knowledge, this is the first systematic effort to assess IFAP trends through an environmental public health lens for a relatively large group of LMICs. It contributes to the literature by outlining urgent research priorities aimed at informing national and international decisions about the future of food animal production and efforts to tackle global undernutrition.

Carbon footprint of dairy goat production systems: A comparison of three contrasting grazing levels in the Sierra de Grazalema Natural Park (Southern Spain)

The main objective of this study was to analyze the carbon footprint (CF) of grazing dairy goat systems in a natural park according to their grazing level. A total of 16 representative grazing goat farms in southern Spain were selected and grouped into three farming systems: low productivity grazing farms (LPG), more intensified grazing farms (MIG) and high productivity grazing farms (HPG). Their CF was analyzed, including greenhouse gas emissions and soil C sequestration according to the farms' grazing level and milk productivity, taking into account different functional units (one kilogram of fat and protein corrected milk (FPCM) and one hectare) and milk correction. Results showed that all variables differed according to the milk correction applied as the values for cow's milk correction were 41% lower than for sheep's milk correction. Total emissions and contributions of soil carbon sequestration differed according to farming system group; LPG farms had higher total emissions than MIG and HPG farms, however total carbon sequestration was lower in the MIG farms than in the LPG and HPG farms. The CF values ranged from 2.36 to 1.76 kg CO₂e kg^-1 FPCM for sheep's milk correction and from 1.40 to 1.04 kg CO₂e kg^-1 FPCM for cow's milk correction. No differences were found between farming system groups in either of the two cases but when calculations took hectare of land as a functional unit, the contribution of MIG farms to the CF was 85% higher than LPG and HPG farms. Therefore it is important to take into account the functional unit used to calculate the CF by analyzing this indicator in a broader context, and including carbon sequestration by grazing livestock in the calculation. In order to reduce the CF of this type of system, it is advisable to make appropriate use of the natural resources and to reach an optimum level of milk productivity, high enough for pastoral livestock farming to be viable.

Assessing Pasture Degradation in the Brazilian Cerrado Based on the Analysis of MODIS NDVI Time-Series

Around 55% of all Brazilian cattle production is located in the Cerrado biome, which also contains the largest pasture area in Brazil. Previous studies indicated that about 60% of these pastures were degraded by 2010. However, up-to-date and more precise estimates are necessary to access the extent and degree of degradation of the Cerrado pastures, since these areas constitute strategic land reserves for both livestock intensification and soybean expansion. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the area of degraded pastures in the Cerrado by analyzing the trends of cumulative NDVI anomalies over time used as a proxy for pasture degradation. The generated slope surface was segmented into two classes, comprising non-degraded and degraded pastures, which were correlated with socio-economic and biophysical variables. According to our study, around 39% of the Cerrado pastures are currently degraded, encompassing 18.2 million hectares, mostly in areas with a cattle carrying capacity below 1.0 AU ha−1. These areas, distributed in the northwest Cerrado, mostly within the Brazilian states of Maranhão, Piauí, and Bahia (i.e., Matopiba region), tend to be associated with decreasing rainfall patterns and low investments in soil conservation practices. The degraded areas also tend to be concentrated in municipalities with low human development indices (HDI).

Dynamics of carbon and CO2 removals by Brazilian forest plantations during 1990-2016

BACKGROUND

We analyzed the dynamics of carbon (C) stocks and CO₂ removals by Brazilian forest plantations over the period 1990-2016. Data on the extent of forests compiled from various sources were used in the calculations. Productivities were simulated using species-specific growth and yield simulators for the main trees species planted in the country. Biomass expansion factors, root-to-shoot ratios, wood densities, and carbon fractions compiled from literature were applied. C stocks in necromass (deadwood and litter) and harvested wood products (HWP) were also included in the calculations.

RESULTS

Plantation forests stocked 231 Mt C in 1990 increasing to 612 Mt C in 2016 due to an increase in plantation area and higher productivity of the stands during the 26-year period. Eucalyptus contributed 58% of the C stock in 1990 and 71% in 2016 due to a remarkable increase in plantation area and productivity. Pinus reduced its proportion of the carbon storage due to its low growth in area, while the other species shared less than 6% of the C stocks during the period of study. Aboveground biomass, belowground biomass and necromass shared 71, 12, and 5% of the total C stocked in plantations in 2016, respectively. HWP stocked 76 Mt C in the period, which represents 12% of the total C stocked. Carbon dioxide removals by Brazilian forest plantations during the 26-year period totaled 1669 Gt CO_2-e.

CONCLUSIONS

The carbon dioxide removed by Brazilian forest plantations over the 26 years represent almost the totality of the country´s emissions from the waste sector within the same period, or from the agriculture, forestry and other land use sector in 2016. We concluded that forest plantations play an important role in mitigating GHG (greenhouse gases) emissions in Brazil. This study is helpful to improve national reporting on plantation forests and their GHG sequestration potential, and to achieve Brazil's Nationally Determined Contribution and the Paris Agreement.

Organic quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa L.) production in Peru: Environmental hotspots and food security considerations using Life Cycle Assessment

Quinoa is a plant that is cultivated in the Andean highlands across Peru and Bolivia. It is increasingly popular due to its high nutritive value and protein content. In particular, the cultivation of organic quinoa has grown substantially in recent years since it is the most demanded type of quinoa in the foreign market. Nevertheless, despite the interest that quinoa has generated in terms of its nutritional properties, little is known regarding the environmental profile of its production and processing. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to analyze the environmental impacts that are linked to the production and distribution of organic quinoa to the main export destinations through the application of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. An attributional LCA perspective was conducted including data from approximately 55 ha of land used for quinoa production in the regions of Huancavelica and Ayacucho, in southern-central Peru. IPCC, 2013 and ReCiPe 2008 were the two assessment methods selected to estimate the environmental impact results using the SimaPro 8.3 software. Results, which were calculated for one 500 g package of organic quinoa, showed that GHG emissions are in the upper range of other organic agricultural products. However, when compared to other high protein content food products, especially those from animal origin, considerably low environmental impacts are obtained. For instance, if 20% of the average annual beef consumption in Peru is substituted by organic quinoa, each Peruvian would mitigate 31 kg CO₂eq/year in their diet. Moreover, when the edible protein energy return on investment (i.e., ep-EROI) is computed, a ratio of 0.38 is obtained, in the higher range of protein rich food products. However, future research should delve into the environmental and food policy implications of agricultural land expansion to produce an increasing amount of quinoa for a growing global demand.

Do Large Slaughterhouses Promote Sustainable Intensification of Cattle Ranching in Amazonia and the Cerrado?

This study investigated the influence of large slaughterhouses on five variables, two related to environment impact (land use change rate and greenhouse gases emissions (GE)), and three related to cattle-ranching intensification (protein from crops, calories from crops and stocking rate). In Amazonia, the results show a reduction of the land use change rate and GE in zones both with and without the influence of large slaughterhouses. The hypothesis that slaughterhouses are leverage points to reduce deforestation in the biome was not confirmed. The slaughterhouses also seem to have no effect on cattle ranching intensification, as protein and calories production increased significantly in both zones, while the stocking rates did not change in the influence zones. In the Cerrado, cattle-ranching intensification is a reality, and is occurring independently of the presence of large slaughterhouses. In conclusion, the results show no evidence that large slaughterhouses have promoted either cattle-ranching intensification or improvements in the sustainability of the cattle-ranching activity in Amazonia and the Cerrado.

Pasture intensification is insufficient to relieve pressure on conservation priority areas in open agricultural markets

Agricultural expansion is a leading driver of biodiversity loss across the world, but little is known on how future land-use change may encroach on remaining natural vegetation. This uncertainty is, in part, due to unknown levels of future agricultural intensification and international trade. Using an economic land-use model, we assessed potential future losses of natural vegetation with a focus on how these may threaten biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. We analysed agricultural expansion under proactive and reactive biodiversity protection scenarios, and for different rates of pasture intensification. We found growing food demand to lead to a significant expansion of cropland at the expense of pastures and natural vegetation. In our reference scenario, global cropland area increased by more than 400 Mha between 2015 and 2050, mostly in Africa and Latin America. Grazing intensification was a main determinant of future land-use change. In Africa, higher rates of pasture intensification resulted in smaller losses of natural vegetation, and reduced pressure on biodiversity hotspots and intact forest landscapes. Investments into raising pasture productivity in conjunction with proactive land-use planning appear essential in Africa to reduce further losses of areas with high conservation value. In Latin America, in contrast, higher pasture productivity resulted in increased livestock exports, highlighting that unchecked trade can reduce the land savings of pasture intensification. Reactive protection of sensitive areas significantly reduced the conversion of natural ecosystems in Latin America. We conclude that protection strategies need to adapt to region-specific trade positions. In regions with a high involvement in international trade, area-based conservation measures should be preferred over strategies aimed at increasing pasture productivity, which by themselves might not be sufficient to protect biodiversity effectively.

Structural change as a key component for agricultural non-CO2 mitigation efforts

Agriculture is the single largest source of anthropogenic non-carbon dioxide (non-CO₂) emissions. Reaching the climate target of the Paris Agreement will require significant emission reductions across sectors by 2030 and continued efforts thereafter. Here we show that the economic potential of non-CO₂ emissions reductions from agriculture is up to four times as high as previously estimated. In fact, we find that agriculture could achieve already at a carbon price of 25 $/tCO₂eq non-CO₂ reductions of around 1 GtCO₂eq/year by 2030 mainly through the adoption of technical and structural mitigation options. At 100 $/tCO₂eq agriculture could even provide non-CO₂ reductions of 2.6 GtCO₂eq/year in 2050 including demand side efforts. Immediate action to favor the widespread adoption of technical options in developed countries together with productivity increases through structural changes in developing countries is needed to move agriculture on track with a 2 °C climate stabilization pathway.

To achieve the climate target of the Paris Agreement substantial emission reductions will be required across economic sectors. Here the authors show that agriculture can make a significant contribution to non-CO₂ mitigation efforts through structural change in the livestock sector and the deployment of technical options.

Consensus, uncertainties and challenges for perennial bioenergy crops and land use

Perennial bioenergy crops have significant potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contribute to climate change mitigation by substituting for fossil fuels; yet delivering significant GHG savings will require substantial land-use change, globally. Over the last decade, research has delivered improved understanding of the environmental benefits and risks of this transition to perennial bioenergy crops, addressing concerns that the impacts of land conversion to perennial bioenergy crops could result in increased rather than decreased GHG emissions. For policymakers to assess the most cost-effective and sustainable options for deployment and climate change mitigation, synthesis of these studies is needed to support evidence-based decision making. In 2015, a workshop was convened with researchers, policymakers and industry/business representatives from the UK, EU and internationally. Outcomes from global research on bioenergy land-use change were compared to identify areas of consensus, key uncertainties, and research priorities. Here, we discuss the strength of evidence for and against six consensus statements summarising the effects of land-use change to perennial bioenergy crops on the cycling of carbon, nitrogen and water, in the context of the whole life-cycle of bioenergy production. Our analysis suggests that the direct impacts of dedicated perennial bioenergy crops on soil carbon and nitrous oxide are increasingly well understood and are often consistent with significant life cycle GHG mitigation from bioenergy relative to conventional energy sources. We conclude that the GHG balance of perennial bioenergy crop cultivation will often be favourable, with maximum GHG savings achieved where crops are grown on soils with low carbon stocks and conservative nutrient application, accruing additional environmental benefits such as improved water quality. The analysis reported here demonstrates there is a mature and increasingly comprehensive evidence base on the environmental benefits and risks of bioenergy cultivation which can support the development of a sustainable bioenergy industry.

Climate mitigation by dairy intensification depends on intensive use of spared grassland

Milk and beef production cause 9% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have shown that dairy intensification reduces the carbon footprint of milk by increasing animal productivity and feed conversion efficiency. None of these studies simultaneously evaluated indirect GHG effects incurred via teleconnections with expansion of feed crop production and replacement suckler-beef production. We applied consequential LCA to incorporate these effects into GHG mitigation calculations for intensification scenarios among grazing-based dairy farms in an industrialized country (UK), in which milk production shifts from average to intensive farm typologies, involving higher milk yields per cow and more maize and concentrate feed in cattle diets. Attributional LCA indicated a reduction of up to 0.10 kg CO₂ e kg^-1 milk following intensification, reflecting improved feed conversion efficiency. However, consequential LCA indicated that land use change associated with increased demand for maize and concentrate feed, plus additional suckler-beef production to replace reduced dairy-beef output, significantly increased GHG emissions following intensification. International displacement of replacement suckler-beef production to the "global beef frontier" in Brazil resulted in small GHG savings for the UK GHG inventory, but contributed to a net increase in international GHG emissions equivalent to 0.63 kg CO₂ e kg^-1 milk. Use of spared dairy grassland for intensive beef production can lead to net GHG mitigation by replacing extensive beef production, enabling afforestation on larger areas of lower quality grassland, or by avoiding expansion of international (Brazilian) beef production. We recommend that LCA boundaries are expanded when evaluating livestock intensification pathways, to avoid potentially misleading conclusions being drawn from "snapshot" carbon footprints. We conclude that dairy intensification in industrialized countries can lead to significant international carbon leakage, and only achieves GHG mitigation when spared dairy grassland is used to intensify beef production, freeing up larger areas for afforestation.

Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890-2014: Magnitude, trends and spatiotemporal patterns

Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long-term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH₄ ) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH₄ emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890-2014. We estimate that total CH₄ emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH₄ or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂ -eq (1 MT = 10¹² g, 1 Gt = 10¹⁵ g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%-54% of all non-CO₂ GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH₄ emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH₄ or 2.06 Gt CO₂ -eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH₄ emissions/km² ) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH₄ emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km² ) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH₄ emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented.

Sustainable Cattle Ranching in Practice: Moving from Theory to Planning in Colombia's Livestock Sector

A growing population with increasing consumption of milk and dairy require more agricultural output in the coming years, which potentially competes with forests and other natural habitats. This issue is particularly salient in the tropics, where deforestation has traditionally generated cattle pastures and other commodity crops such as corn and soy. The purpose of this article is to review the concepts and discussion associated with reconciling food production and conservation, and in particular with regards to cattle production, including the concepts of land-sparing and land-sharing. We then present these concepts in the specific context of Colombia, where there are efforts to increase both cattle production and protect tropical forests, in order to discuss the potential for landscape planning for sustainable cattle production. We outline a national planning approach, which includes disaggregating the diverse cattle sector and production types, identifying biophysical, and economic opportunities and barriers for sustainable intensification in cattle ranching, and analyzing areas suitable for habitat restoration and conservation, in order to plan for both land-sparing and land-sharing strategies. This approach can be used in other contexts across the world where there is a need to incorporate cattle production into national goals for carbon sequestration and habitat restoration and conservation.

Brief history of agricultural systems modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the "next generation" models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

Impending extinction crisis of the world's primates: Why primates matter

Nonhuman primates, our closest biological relatives, play important roles in the livelihoods, cultures, and religions of many societies and offer unique insights into human evolution, biology, behavior, and the threat of emerging diseases. They are an essential component of tropical biodiversity, contributing to forest regeneration and ecosystem health. Current information shows the existence of 504 species in 79 genera distributed in the Neotropics, mainland Africa, Madagascar, and Asia. Alarmingly, ~60% of primate species are now threatened with extinction and ~75% have declining populations. This situation is the result of escalating anthropogenic pressures on primates and their habitats-mainly global and local market demands, leading to extensive habitat loss through the expansion of industrial agriculture, large-scale cattle ranching, logging, oil and gas drilling, mining, dam building, and the construction of new road networks in primate range regions. Other important drivers are increased bushmeat hunting and the illegal trade of primates as pets and primate body parts, along with emerging threats, such as climate change and anthroponotic diseases. Often, these pressures act in synergy, exacerbating primate population declines. Given that primate range regions overlap extensively with a large, and rapidly growing, human population characterized by high levels of poverty, global attention is needed immediately to reverse the looming risk of primate extinctions and to attend to local human needs in sustainable ways. Raising global scientific and public awareness of the plight of the world's primates and the costs of their loss to ecosystem health and human society is imperative.