Urban warming advances spring phenology but reduces the response of phenology to temperature in the conterminous United States

Thermal, water, and land cover factors led to contrasting urban and rural vegetation resilience to extreme hot months

With continuing global warming and urbanization, it is increasingly important to understand the resilience of urban vegetation to extreme high temperatures, but few studies have examined urban vegetation at large scale or both concurrent and delayed responses. In this study, we performed an urban-rural comparison using the Enhanced Vegetation Index and months that exceed the historical 90th percentile in mean temperature (referred to as "hot months") across 85 major cities in the contiguous United States. We found that hot months initially enhanced vegetation greenness but could cause a decline afterwards, especially for persistent (≥4 months) and intense (≥+2 °C) episodes in summer. The urban responses were more positive than rural in the western United States or in winter, but more negative during spring-autumn in the eastern United States. The east-west difference can be attributed to the higher optimal growth temperatures and lower water stress levels of the western urban vegetation than the rural. The urban responses also had smaller magnitudes than the rural responses, especially in deciduous forest biomes, and least in evergreen forest biomes. Within each biome, analysis at 1 km pixel level showed that impervious fraction and vegetation cover, local urban heat island intensity, and water stress were the key drivers of urban-rural differences. These findings advance our understanding of how prolonged exposure to warm extremes, particularly within urban environments, affects vegetation greenness and vitality. Urban planners and ecosystem managers should prioritize the long and intense events and the key drivers in fostering urban vegetation resilience to heat waves.

High preseason temperature variability drives convergence of xylem phenology in the Northern Hemisphere conifers

Wood growth is key to understanding the feedback of forest ecosystems to the ongoing climate warming. An increase in spatial synchrony (i.e., coincident changes in distant populations) of spring phenology is one of the most prominent climate responses of forest trees. However, whether temperature variability contributes to an increase in the spatial synchrony of spring phenology and its underlying mechanisms remains largely unknown. Here, we analyzed an extensive dataset of xylem phenology observations of 20 conifer species from 75 sites over the Northern Hemisphere. Along the gradient of increase in temperature variability in the 75 sites, we observed a convergence in the onset of cell enlargement roughly toward the 5th of June, with a convergence in the onset of cell wall thickening toward the summer solstice. The increase in rainfall since the 5th of June is favorable for cell division and expansion, and as the most hours of sunlight are received around the summer solstice, it allows the optimization of carbon assimilation for cell wall thickening. Hence, the convergences can be considered as the result of matching xylem phenological activities to favorable conditions in regions with high temperature variability. Yet, forest trees relying on such consistent seasonal cues for xylem growth could constrain their ability to respond to climate warming, with consequences for the potential growing season length and, ultimately, forest productivity and survival in the future.

Field temperature performances of in-use permeable sidewalks and asphalt vehicle roads and the potential impacts on apparent temperature and land surface temperature

Permeable pavements help reduce surface temperatures and have been widely implemented in urban areas. This study utilized an in-use permeable pavement sidewalk in front of a mass rapid transit station in the Taipei city center of Taiwan to determine the actual pavement surface temperature performance. A neighboring asphalt road and impervious pavement were also monitored. With a full year of continuous monitoring, the results showed that the temperature of permeable pavement was 3.7 °C lower than that of impervious pavement and 4.5 °C lower than that of asphalt pavement in the hot season. The frequent rainfall in spring resulted in the smallest temperature differences between the different pavement types. The cooling effects of permeable pavement differed at the different air temperatures. At air temperatures lower than 15 °C, the differences among pavement surface temperatures were noticeable. However, when the air temperature was higher than 35 °C, the surface temperature of permeable pavement was not different from that of impervious pavement and was greater than 55 °C. Field observations were carried out to determine the effects on the apparent temperature and the future surface temperature of climate change scenarios. The results showed that permeable pavement could reduce the average apparent temperature to near the air temperature, and asphalt pavement could increase the apparent temperature by 1.2 °C, assuming that the pavement temperature completely affects the air temperature. With the good prediction ability of the machine learning approach and 15 environmental factors, the preliminary prediction showed the projected surface temperature change in Taipei city in 2033. In the worst-case scenario, the average impervious pavement temperature is as high as 39.12 °C, whereas the average permeable pavement temperature is 32.50 °C.

The phenological response of European vegetation to urbanisation is mediated by macrobioclimatic factors

Plant phenology is a crucial component of ecosystem functioning and is affected by multiple elements of global change; we therefore need to quantify the current phenological changes associated to human activities and understand their impacts on ecosystems. Urbanisation and the intensification of anthropogenic activities alter meteorological conditions and cause phenological changes in urban vegetation worldwide. We used remote sensing data to evaluate the phenological response (start of season date SOS, length of season LOS and end of season date EOS) of five main vegetation types (evergreen forests, deciduous forests, mixed forests, sparse woody vegetation and grasslands) to urbanisation in the 69 most populated pan-European metropolitan areas (i.e., those that include cities with a population over 450,000 inhabitants) for the period 2002-2021. In general, SOS advanced and LOS increased with urbanisation intensity across European metropolitan areas. We found that macrobioclimatic factors strongly determined the strength and direction of the phenological response to urbanisation intensity. The greatest advances in SOS with increasing urbanisation were registered in metropolitan areas in the Mediterranean region, where there was also more uncertainty in this relationship. The EOS advanced with urbanisation in metropolitan areas in the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, whereas in areas with higher precipitation during summer the opposite trend was observed suggesting water availability mediates the response between urbanisation and autumn phenophases. Our results suggest that macrobioclimatic constraints operating at the continental scale are crucial to understand the relationship between plant phenology and urbanisation intensity.

Water-energy-vegetation nexus explain global geographical variation in surface urban heat island intensity

Surface urban heat island (SUHI) is a key climate risk associated with urbanization. Previous case studies have suggested that precipitation (water), radiation (energy), and vegetation have important effects on urban warming, but there is a lack of research that combines these factors to explain the global geographic variation in SUHI intensity (SUHII). Here, we utilize remotely sensed and gridded datasets to propose a new water-energy-vegetation nexus concept that explains the global geographic variation of SUHII across four climate zones and seven major regions. We found that SUHII and its frequency increase from arid zones (0.36 ± 0.15 °C) to humid zones (2.28 ± 0.10 °C), but become weaker in the extreme humid zones (2.18 ± 0.15 °C). We revealed that from semi-arid/humid to humid zones, high precipitation is often coupled with high incoming solar radiation. The increased solar radiation can directly enhance the energy in the area, leading to higher SUHII and its frequency. Although solar radiation is high in arid zones (mainly in West, Central, and South Asia), water limitation leads to sparse natural vegetation, suppressing the cooling effect in rural areas and resulting in lower SUHII. In extreme humid regions (mainly in tropical areas), incoming solar radiation tends to flatten out, which, coupled with increased vegetation as hydrothermal conditions become more favorable, leads to more latent heat and reduces the intensity of SUHI. Overall, this study offers empirical evidence that the water-energy-vegetation nexus highly explains the global geographic variation of SUHII. The results can be used by urban planners seeking optimal SUHI mitigation strategies and for climate change modeling work.

Improved human greenspace exposure equality during 21st century urbanization

Greenspace plays a crucial role in urban ecosystems and has been recognized as a key factor in promoting sustainable and healthy city development. Recent studies have revealed a growing concern about urban greenspace exposure inequality; however, the extent to which urbanization affects human exposure to greenspace and associated inequalities over time remains unclear. Here, we incorporate a Landsat-based 30-meter time-series greenspace mapping and a population-weighted exposure framework to quantify the changes in human exposure to greenspace and associated equality (rather than equity) for 1028 global cities from 2000 to 2018. Results show a substantial increase in physical greenspace coverage and an improvement in human exposure to urban greenspace, leading to a reduction in greenspace exposure inequality over the past two decades. Nevertheless, we observe a contrast in the rate of reduction in greenspace exposure inequality between cities in the Global South and North, with a faster rate of reduction in the Global South, nearly four times that of the Global North. These findings provide valuable insights into the impact of urbanization on urban nature and environmental inequality change and can help inform future city greening efforts.

Non-symmetric responses of leaf onset date to natural warming and cooling in northern ecosystems

The northern hemisphere has experienced regional cooling, especially during the global warming hiatus (1998-2012) due to ocean energy redistribution. However, the lack of studies about the natural cooling effects hampers our understanding of vegetation responses to climate change. Using 15,125 ground phenological time series at 3,620 sites since the 1950s and 31-year satellite greenness observations (1982-2012) covering the warming hiatus period, we show a stronger response of leaf onset date (LOD) to natural cooling than to warming, i.e. the delay of LOD caused by 1°C cooling is larger than the advance of LOD with 1°C warming. This might be because cooling leads to larger chilling accumulation and heating requirements for leaf onset, but this non-symmetric LOD response is partially offset by warming-related drying. Moreover, spring greening magnitude, in terms of satellite-based greenness and productivity, is more sensitive to LOD changes in the warming area than in the cooling. These results highlight the importance of considering non-symmetric responses of spring greening to warming and cooling when predicting vegetation-climate feedbacks.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

Urban environments provide new perspectives for forecasting vegetation phenology responses under climate warming

Given that already-observed temperature increase within cities far exceeds the projected global temperature rise by the end of the century, urban environments often offer a unique opportunity for studying ecosystem response to future warming. However, the validity of thermal gradients in space serving as a substitute for those in time is rarely tested. Here, we investigated vegetation phenology dynamics in China's 343 cities and empirically test whether phenological responses to spatial temperature rise in urban settings can substitute for those to temporal temperature rise in their natural counterparts based on satellite-derived vegetation phenology and land surface temperature from 2003 to 2018. We found prevalent advancing spring phenology with "high confidence" and delaying autumn phenology with "medium confidence" under the context of widespread urban warming. Furthermore, we showed that space cannot substitute for time in predicting phenological shifts under climate warming at the national scale and for most cities. The thresholds of ~11°C mean annual temperature and ~600 mm annual precipitation differentiated the magnitude of phenological sensitivity to temperature across space and through time. Below those thresholds, there existed stronger advanced spring phenology and delayed autumn phenology across the spatial urbanization gradients than through time, and vice versa. Despite the complex and diverse relationships between phenological sensitivities across space and through time, we found that the directions of the temperature changes across spatial gradients were converged (i.e., mostly increased), but divergent through temporal gradients (i.e., increased or decreased without a predominant direction). Similarly, vegetation phenology changes more uniformly over space than through time. These results suggested that the urban environments provide a real-world condition to understand vegetation phenology response under future warming.

Potential for urban warming to postpone overwintering dormancy of temperate mosquitoes

Cities are generally hotter than surrounding rural areas due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. These increases in temperature advance plant and animal phenology, development, and reproduction in the spring. However, research determining how increased temperatures affect the seasonal physiology of animals in the fall has been limited. The Northern house mosquito, Culex pipiens, is abundant in cities and transmits several pathogens including West Nile virus. Females of this species enter a state of developmental arrest, or reproductive diapause, in response to short days and low temperatures during autumn. Diapausing females halt reproduction and blood-feeding, and instead accumulate fat and seek sheltered overwintering sites. We found that exposure to increased temperatures in the lab that mimic the UHI effect induced ovarian development and blood-feeding, and that females exposed to these temperatures were as fecund as non-diapausing mosquitoes. We also found that females exposed to higher temperatures had lower survival rates in winter-like conditions, despite having accumulated equivalent lipid reserves relative to their diapausing congeners. These data suggest that urban warming may inhibit diapause initiation in the autumn, thereby extending the active biting season of temperate mosquitoes.

Canopy composition drives variability in urban growing season length more than the heat island effect

The elevated heat of urban areas compared to their surroundings makes humid temperate cities a useful preview of future climate effects on natural forest phenology. The utility of this proxy rests on the expectation that trees in urban areas alter their phenology in response to warmer site conditions in spring and fall. However, it is possible that apparent lengthening of the growing season is instead governed by human-driven tree species selection and plant functional type (PFT; trees, shrubs, turfgrass) heterogeneity typical of managed landscapes. Without the use of highly spatially and temporally resolved remote sensing data, the roles of tree taxonomy and local site characteristics (e.g., impervious cover) in controlling phenology remain confounded. To understand the drivers of earlier start of season (SOS) and later end of season (EOS) among urban trees, we estimated individual tree phenology using >130 high-resolution satellite images per year (2018-2020) for ~10,000 species-labeled trees in Washington, DC. We found that species identity alone accounted for 4× more variability in the timing of SOS and EOS compared with a tree's planting location characteristics. Additionally, the urban mix of PFTs may be more responsible for apparent advances in SOS (by between 1.8 ± 1.3 and 3.5 ± 1.3 days) than heat per se. The results of this study caution against associating longer growing seasons in cities-observed in moderate to coarse resolution remote sensing imagery-to within-species phenological plasticity and demonstrate the power of high-resolution satellite data for tracking tree phenology in biodiverse environments.

A stronger advance of urban spring vegetation phenology narrows vegetation productivity difference between urban settings and natural environments

Climate change is posing dramatic effects on terrestrial vegetation dynamics. The links between vegetation phenology or vegetation activity (growth) and climate change have been widely reported, yet, less is known about the impacts of phenological shifts on vegetation growth. Urban settings characterized by urban heat island and CO₂ dome are often used as ideal natural laboratories to understand how vegetation responds to global climate change. Here we assessed the impacts of phenology changes on vegetation growth in China using satellite phenology metrics and gross primary production (GPP) data from 2003 to 2018 and urban-natural contrast analysis. Compared with natural environments, phenological metrics (e.g., start/end of growing season (SOS/EOS), and the length of growing season (GSL), etc.) were observed to change more dramatically in urban environments. Furthermore, we found that GPP in both settings increased over time but with a higher increment in the urban environments, and the urban-natural vegetation productivity gap had been diminishing at a rate of 16.9 ± 6.76 g C m^-2 y^-1. The narrowing of the urban-natural GPP difference over time can be attributed to a more advanced SOS and extended GSL in urban settings than their natural counterparts, particularly SOS shift. These findings suggested that the distinct urban phenological shifts would become increasingly important in offsetting the loss of vegetation productivity induced by urbanization.

Response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in urban agglomeration areas: A dynamic urban-rural gradient perspective

Being an important theme in global warming, the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization has become an increasing concern at both the local and global levels. Previous studies have focused on spatial or temporal responses across urban-rural gradients; thus, the influence of urbanization on vegetation phenology along the dynamic urbanization gradient has not been well quantified. In this study, we comprehensively analyzed the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GHM-GBA) from a dynamic urban-rural gradient perspective. The results show that the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization level has a distinct spatiotemporal difference across the urban-rural gradient. Compared to rural areas, the change rate of advancements in the start-of-season (SOS) in urban domains was 1.16 DOY/year and that of the end-of-season (EOS) was 0.63 days/year from 2001 to 2020. In the GHM-GBA region, 61.03 % of the remote sensing pixels showed an advancing trend for SOS and 55.75 % for EOS. Urbanization advanced the SOS and EOS but did not extend the growing season length, and the SOS and EOS were advanced by 7 and 6 days along the urban-to-rural gradient, respectively. For every 10 % increase in urbanization levels, the SOS and EOS advanced by 1.085 and 1.091 days across the urban-rural gradient, respectively; the spring land surface temperature (LST) advanced the SOS at a rate of 1.71 days/°C, while the autumn LST advanced the EOS at a rate of 1.88 days/°C. The phenological shift in the urban-rural gradient was more significant than that over time, which was mainly because of land surface warming under different urbanization levels. These quantitative findings are of great importance for understanding the complicated impacts of urbanization on vegetation phenology and for developing models to predict vegetation phenological changes under future urbanization.

A critical thermal transition driving spring phenology of Northern Hemisphere conifers

Despite growing interest in predicting plant phenological shifts, advanced spring phenology by global climate change remains debated. Evidence documenting either small or large advancement of spring phenology to rising temperature over the spatio-temporal scales implies a potential existence of a thermal threshold in the responses of forests to global warming. We collected a unique data set of xylem cell-wall-thickening onset dates in 20 coniferous species covering a broad mean annual temperature (MAT) gradient (-3.05 to 22.9°C) across the Northern Hemisphere (latitudes 23°-66° N). Along the MAT gradient, we identified a threshold temperature (using segmented regression) of 4.9 ± 1.1°C, above which the response of xylem phenology to rising temperatures significantly decline. This threshold separates the Northern Hemisphere conifers into cold and warm thermal niches, with MAT and spring forcing being the primary drivers for the onset dates (estimated by linear and Bayesian mixed-effect models), respectively. The identified thermal threshold should be integrated into the Earth-System-Models for a better understanding of spring phenology in response to global warming and an improved prediction of global climate-carbon feedbacks.

Temperature sensitivity of leaf flushing in 12 common woody species in eastern China

Leaf phenology is one of the most reliable indicators of global warming in temperate regions because it is highly sensitive to temperatures. Temperature sensitivity (S_T) is defined as the values of changed days of leaf flushing date (LUD) per degree increase in temperatures. Climate warming substantially advanced LUD in the temperate region, but its effect on S_T of LUD is still not clear. We used spring phenological records of 12 woody plants in eastern China in the years of 1983-2014 to explore temporal and spatial changes of LUD and S_T. Furthermore, we compared the difference of S_T and preseason temperatures in two periods (1983-1997 and 2000-2014), and explored the main factors regulating S_T. The results showed that the average LUD significantly advanced (-2.7 days per decade). The mean LUD over the period 1983-2014 was in day of the year (DOY) 87 ± 7 across sites and species for the early leaf flushing species (EFS), and mean DOY 102 ± 5 for the late leaf flushing species (LFS). LUD was earlier in low latitude than that in high latitude. S_T of Armeniaca vulgaris was the most sensitive to temperature across all sites (-3.66 d °C^-1), while Firmiana simplex was the most insensitive (-2.37 d °C^-1). LUD of EFS was more sensitive to temperature warming than that of LFS. At the same site, LUD of EFS would advance more obviously than that of LFS under global warming. For all species, S_T decreased significantly with shorter preseason length and warmer temperatures at the preseason end. Our results had demonstrated a strong relationship between S_T and the preseason length (mean temperature at the preseason end).

A comprehensive analysis of the crop effect on the urban-rural differences in land surface phenology

The response of land surface phenology (LSP) to the urban heat island effect (UHI) is a useful biological indicator for understanding how vegetated ecosystems will be affected by future climate warming. However, vegetation cover in rural areas is often dominated by cultivated land, whose phenological timing is considerably influenced by agricultural managements (e.g., timing of sowing and harvesting), leading to biased conclusions derived from the urban-rural LSP differences. To demonstrate this problem, we investigated the crop influence on the phenological response to a warmer environment resulting from the UHI effect. We partitioned cities in the United States into cultivated and non-cultivated categories according to the proportion of crops in rural areas. We then built continuous buffer zones starting from the urban boundary to explore the urban-rural LSP differences considering the UHI effect on them. The results suggest crop inclusion is likely to lead to >14 days of urban-rural differences at both the start of the season (SOS) and the end of the season (EOS) between cultivated and non-cultivated cities. The temperature sensitivity (S_T) of SOS is overestimated by approximately 2.7 days/°C, whereas the EOS is underestimated by 3.6 days/°C. Removing crop-dominated pixels (i.e., above 50 %) can minimize the influence of crop planting/harvesting on LSP and derive reliable results. We, therefore, suggest explicit consideration of crop impacts in future studies of phenological differences between urban and rural areas and the UHI effect on LSP in urban domains, as presented by this comprehensive study.

Revegetation affects the response of land surface phenology to climate in Loess Plateau, China

Land surface phenology (LSP), defined as the plant's growth rhythm retrieved from satellite sensing products, is proven to shift with climate change and affect the carbon cycles of terrestrial ecosystems. Global afforested area is largely increasing and consequently affecting local and global climate. However, how and to what extent revegetation affects LSP remains relatively unexplored. Here we investigated the difference in four LSPs (i.e., greenup, maturity, senescence, and dormancy) and the response of LSP to climate between restored and native vegetation on Loess Plateau, China, where a remarkable process of vegetation restoration happened during 1982-2015. Most study regions showed a longer growing season (LOS) over time, specifically, with a slight delay in greenup but a relatively large delay in senescence. We found that air temperature was the dominant factor affecting greenup and maturity, while precipitation mostly controlled the senescence and dormancy in the study area. Under similar climate conditions, the LSP of restored vegetation (i.e., restored forest and grassland) showed a significant difference (p < 0.05) from native ones during 1999-2015. Compared to the native forest, restored forest from cropland and grassland showed a delayed greenup date by 0.3 and 3.6 days (p < 0.05) and an advanced dormancy date of 6.6 and 9.0 days (p < 0.05), respectively. Furthermore, the restored vegetation became less sensitive to air temperature than native vegetation, while the restored forest was more sensitive to precipitation, and its growth was affected by the water limitation to a larger extent in the study area. Our study highlights the necessity of considering land use management and its effect on the LSP change to better understand the effect of afforestation on global climate and carbon cycles.

Identifying and characterizing frequency and maximum durations of surface urban heat and cool island across global cities

Surface urban heat island (SUHI) has been widely reported from a local to global scale. However, variations and controls of temporal indicators for SUHI and SUCI (surface urban cool island) remain unclear. This paper firstly reconstructed the seamless daily LST (land surface temperature) based on ATC-SKT (annual temperature cycle-skin temperature) and comprehensively validated for SUHI applications across 1112 global cities. Based on the seamless daily LST, this paper further characterized the spatiotemporal variations of the frequency (SUHIF and SUCIF) and maximum duration (SUHID and SUCID) and investigated the impacts from related factors, inconsideration of the different characteristics of SUHI and SUCI. There are five major findings. (1) The seamless daily LST reconstructed based on ATC-SKT is validated through pixel-based temperature and city-based SUHII accuracy assessments. (2) The selection of the frequency threshold is based on robustness for LST accuracy, approximation to SUHII global average, and mitigation of frequency saturation. (3) The average daytime SUHIF is 214 days/year, with 44 % of cities exhibiting SUHI occurrences for almost every day in summer. The nighttime SUHIF is 175 days/year, with increasing latitudinal variations from equatorial to polar regions. The daytime SUCIF is 41 days/year, with the greatest average frequency of 172 days/year exhibited in arid regions. (4) The average SUHID is 147 days at daytime and 58 days at nighttime, with relatively opposite geographical distributions between day and night. (5) Greater vegetation difference at daytime and greater albedo difference at nighttime result in more occurrences and longer consecutive durations of SUHI, with opposite effects on the temporal indicators of SUCI. Furthermore, the improvements in daily SUHII and impacts from the maximum duration were discussed. This paper aims to identify and highlight the period with significant SUHI and SUCI effects across global cities for further mitigation.

Disorder or a new order: How climate change affects phenological variability

Advancing spring phenology is a well documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year to year. Species' phenological timings reflect the adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g., thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g., predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in interannual variability encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time series representing more than 1000 species across much of the Northern Hemisphere. We show that the timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival were the most sensitive to temperature variation and have advanced at the fastest pace for early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions. We did not find evidence for changing variability in warmer years in any phenophase groups, although leaf-out and flower phenology have become moderately but significantly less variable over time. Our findings suggest that climate change has not to this point fundamentally altered the patterns of interannual phenological variability.

Urban warming increases the temperature sensitivity of spring vegetation phenology at 292 cities across China

Urban spring phenology changes governed by multiple biological and environmental factors significantly impact urban ecosystem functions and services. However, the temporal changes in spring phenology (i.e., the start of the vegetation growing season, SOS) and the magnitude of SOS sensitivity to temperature in urban settings are not well understood compared with natural ecosystems. Therefore, we explored warming impacts on SOS across 292 rural and urban areas from 2001 to 2016. We found that warming occurred in 79.9% of urban areas and 61.3% of rural areas. This warming advanced SOS in 78.3% of the urban settings and 72.8% of the rural areas. The accelerated rate of SOS in urban settings was significantly higher (-0.52 ± 0.86 days/year) than in rural areas (-0.09 ± 0.69 days/year). Moreover, SOS was significantly more sensitive to warming in urban areas (-2.86 ± 3.57 days/°C) than in rural areas (-1.57 ± 3.09 days/°C), driven by urban-rural differences in climatic (precipitation, temperature, and warming speed) and vegetation factors. Precipitation contributed the most had the highest relative importance for controlling SOS, at 45% and 63% for urban and rural areas, respectively. These findings provide a new understanding of the impacts of urbanization and climate change on vegetation phenology. Moreover, our results have implications for urban environment impacts on ecosystems and human health.

Direct and indirect impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth across the world's cities

Urban environments, regarded as "harbingers" of future global change, may exert positive or negative impacts on urban vegetation growth. Because of limited ground-based experiments, the responses of vegetation to urbanization and its associated controlling factors at the global scale remain poorly understood. Here, we use satellite observations from 2001 to 2018 to quantify direct and indirect impacts of urbanization on vegetation growth in 672 worldwide cities. After controlling for the negative direct impact of urbanization on vegetation growth, we find a widespread positive indirect effect that has been increasing over time. These indirect effects depend on urban development intensity, population density, and background climate, with more pronounced positive effects in cities with cold and arid environments. We further show that vegetation responses to urbanization are modulated by a cities' developmental status. Our findings have important implications for understanding urbanization-induced impacts on vegetation and future sustainable urban development.

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Heterogeneity of Vegetation Phenology in the Yangtze River Delta

Vegetation phenology and its spatiotemporal driving factors are essential to reflect global climate change, the surface carbon cycle and regional ecology, and further quantitative studies on spatiotemporal heterogeneity and its two-way driving are needed. Based on MODIS phenology, meteorology, land cover and other data from 2001 to 2019, this paper analyzes the phenology change characteristics of the Yangtze River Delta from three dimensions: time, plane space and elevation. Then, the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of phenology and its driving factors are explored with random forest and geographic detector methods. The results show that (1) the advance of start of season (SOS) is insignificant—with 0.17 days per year; the end of season (EOS) shows a significant delay—0.48 days per year. The preseason temperature has a greater contribution to SOS, while preseason precipitation is main factor in determining EOS. (2) Spatial differences of the phenological index do not strictly obey the change rules of latitude at a provincial scale. The SOS of Jiangsu and Anhui is earlier than that of Zhejiang and Shanghai, and EOS shows an obvious double-clustering phenomenon. In addition, a divergent response of EOS with elevation grades is found; the most significant changes are observed at grades below 100 m. (3) Land cover (LC) type is a major factor of the spatial heterogeneity of phenology, and its change may also be one of the insignificant factors driving the interannual change of phenology. Furthermore, nighttime land surface temperature (NLST) has a relatively larger contribution to the spatial heterogeneity in non-core urban areas, but population density (PD) contributes little. These findings could provide a new perspective on phenology and its complex interactions between natural or anthropogenic factors.

Characterizing Spatial Patterns of the Response Rate of Vegetation Green-Up Dates to Land Surface Temperature in Beijing, China (2001–2019)

The phenology indicator of vegetation green-up dates (GUD) is prone to being affected by changes in temperature. However, the influencing degree of urbanization-induced temperature warming on vegetation GUDs among different vegetation species along the urban-rural gradient remains inadequately described. In this study, based on the long-term (2001–2019) satellite-derived vegetation GUDs and nighttime land surface temperature (LST) of forests, grasslands, and croplands along the urban-rural gradient with Beijing (China) as a case study area, the responses of vegetation GUDs to temperature changes were quantitatively analyzed, taking into account the vegetation types and distances away from the urban domain. The results show that (1) long-term GUDs and LST are significantly negatively correlated, characterized by a weaker significant correlation near the urban area when compared with its surrounding areas, with the greatest absolute linear correlation coefficients (r) happening at rings 32 km (rmax = −0.93, forests), 20 km and 48 km (rmax = −0.83, grasslands), and 34 km (rmax = −0.82, croplands), respectively; (2) the magnitude of change in GUDs over the past 19 year (2001–2019) are significantly positively correlated with these in LST near the urban area, demonstrating a distance-decay trend, with the greatest advance in GUDs occurring at the ring nearest the urban area, by about 20 days (forests), 24.5 days (grasslands), and 15.6 days (croplands), respectively; (3) the spatial pattern of the response rate of GUDs change to LST change (days K−1) also showed a declining trend with distance, with GUD advanced by 6.8 days K−1 (forests), 7.5 days K−1 (grasslands), and 4.9 days K−1 (croplands) at the closest ring to the urban, decreasing to about 2.3 days K−1 (48 km), 4.1 days K−1 (18 km), and 1 day K−1 (18 km), respectively, indicating a notable influence of temperature warming on vegetation GUDs near the urban domains.

Woody species do not differ in dormancy progression: Differences in time to budbreak due to forcing and cold hardiness

Budbreak is one of the most observed and studied phenological phases in perennial plants, but predictions remain a challenge, largely due to our poor understanding of dormancy. Two dimensions of exposure to temperature are generally used to model budbreak: accumulation of time spent at low temperatures (chilling) and accumulation of heat units (forcing). These two effects have a well-established negative correlation; with more chilling, less forcing is required for budbreak. Furthermore, temperate plant species are assumed to vary in chilling requirements for dormancy completion allowing proper budbreak. Here, dormancy is investigated from the cold hardiness standpoint across many species, demonstrating that it should be accounted for to study dormancy and accurately predict budbreak. Most cold hardiness is lost prior to budbreak, but rates of cold hardiness loss (deacclimation) vary among species, leading to different times to budbreak. Within a species, deacclimation rate increases with accumulation of chill. When inherent differences between species in deacclimation rate are accounted for by normalizing rates throughout winter by the maximum rate observed, a standardized deacclimation potential is produced. Deacclimation potential is a quantitative measurement of dormancy progression based on responsiveness to forcing as chill accumulates, which increases similarly for all species, contradicting estimations of dormancy transition based on budbreak assays. This finding indicates that comparisons of physiologic and genetic control of dormancy require an understanding of cold hardiness dynamics. Thus, an updated framework for studying dormancy and its effects on spring phenology is suggested where cold hardiness in lieu of (or in addition to) budbreak is used.

Artificial light at night: an underappreciated effect on phenology of deciduous woody plants

Artificial light at night (ALAN), an increasing anthropogenic driver, is widespread and shows rapid expansion with potential adverse impact on the terrestrial ecosystem. However, whether and to what extent does ALAN affect plant phenology, a critical factor influencing the timing of terrestrial ecosystem processes, remains unexplored due to limited ALAN observation. Here, we used the Black Marble ALAN product and phenology observations from USA National Phenology Network to investigate the impact of ALAN on deciduous woody plants phenology in the conterminous United States. We found that (1) ALAN significantly advanced the date of breaking leaf buds by 8.9 ± 6.9 days (mean ± SD) and delayed the coloring of leaves by 6.0 ± 11.9 days on average; (2) the magnitude of phenological changes was significantly correlated with the intensity of ALAN (P < 0.001); and (3) there was an interaction between ALAN and temperature on the coloring of leaves, but not on breaking leaf buds. We further showed that under future climate warming scenarios, ALAN will accelerate the advance in breaking leaf buds but exert a more complex effect on the coloring of leaves. This study suggests intensified ALAN may have far-reaching but underappreciated consequences in disrupting key ecosystem functions and services, which requires an interdisciplinary approach to investigate. Developing lighting strategies that minimize the impact of ALAN on ecosystems, especially those embedded and surrounding major cities, is challenging but must be pursued.

Urbanization Impact on Regional Climate and Extreme Weather: Current Understanding, Uncertainties, and Future Research Directions

Urban environments lie at the confluence of social, cultural, and economic activities and have unique biophysical characteristics due to continued infrastructure development that generally replaces natural landscapes with built-up structures. The vast majority of studies on urban perturbation of local weather and climate have been centered on the urban heat island (UHI) effect, referring to the higher temperature in cities compared to their natural surroundings. Besides the UHI effect and heat waves, urbanization also impacts atmospheric moisture, wind, boundary layer structure, cloud formation, dispersion of air pollutants, precipitation, and storms. In this review article, we first introduce the datasets and methods used in studying urban areas and their impacts through both observation and modeling and then summarize the scientific insights on the impact of urbanization on various aspects of regional climate and extreme weather based on more than 500 studies. We also highlight the major research gaps and challenges in our understanding of the impacts of urbanization and provide our perspective and recommendations for future research priorities and directions.

The divergent response of vegetation phenology to urbanization: A case study of Beijing city, China

Characterizing the relationship between vegetation phenology and urbanization indicators is essential to understand the impacts of human activities on urban ecosystems. In this study, we explored the response of vegetation phenology to urbanization in Beijing (China) during 2001-2018, using impervious surface area (ISA) and the information of urban-rural gradients (i.e., concentric rings from the urban core to surrounding rural areas) as the urbanization indicators. We found the change rates of vegetation phenology in urban areas are 1.3 and 1.1 days per year for start of season (SOS) and end of season (EOS), respectively, about three times faster than that in forest. Moreover, we found a divergent response of SOS with the increase of ISA, which differs from previous results with advanced SOS in the urban environment than surrounding rural areas. This might be attributed to the mixed land cover types and the thermal environment caused by the urban heat island in the urban environment. Similarly, a divergent pattern of phenological indicators along the urban-rural gradient shows a non-linear response of vegetation phenology to urbanization. These findings provide new insights into the complicated interactions between vegetation phenology and urban environments. High-resolution weather data are required to support process-based vegetation phenology models in the future, particularly under different global urbanization and climate change scenarios.

Impacts of forest loss on local climate across the conterminous United States: Evidence from satellite time-series observations

Forest disturbances alter land biophysics. Their impacts on local climate and land surface temperature (LST) cannot be directly measured by comparing pre- and post-disturbance observations of the same site over time (e.g., due to confounding such as background climate fluctuations); a common remedy is to compare spatially-adjacent undisturbed sites instead. This space-for-time substitution ignores the inherent biases in vegetation between two paired sites, interannual variations, and temporal dynamics of forest recovery. Besides, there is a lack of observation-based analyses at fine spatial resolutions capable of capturing spatial heterogeneity of small-scale forest disturbances. To address these limitations, here we report new satellite analyses on local climate impacts of forest loss at 30 m resolution. Our analyses combined multiple long-term satellite products (e.g., albedo and evapotranspiration [ET]) at 700 sites across major climate zones in the conterminous United States, using time-series trend and changepoint detection methods. Our method helped isolate the biophysical changes attributed to disturbances from those attributed to climate backgrounds and natural growth. On average, forest loss increased surface albedo, decreased ET, and reduced leaf area index (LAI). Net annual warming-an increase in LST-was observed after forest loss in the arid/semiarid, northern, tropical, and temperate regions, dominated by the warming from decreased ET and attenuated by the cooling from increased albedo. The magnitude of post-disturbance warming was related to precipitation; climate zones with greater precipitation showed stronger and longer warming. Reduction in leaf or LAI was larger in evergreen than deciduous forests, but the recovery in LAI did not always synchronize with those of albedo and ET. Overall, this study presents new evidence of biophysical effects of forest loss on LST at finer spatial resolutions; our time-series method can be further leveraged to derive local policy-relevant ecosystem climate regulation metrics or support model-based climate-biosphere studies.

Artificial light pollution inhibits plant phenology advance induced by climate warming

Natural photic regime has been drastically altered by the artificial night sky luminance. Despite evidence of sufficient light brightness inducing plant physiology and affecting phenology, generalization regarding effects of light pollution on plant phenology across species and locations is less clear. Meanwhile, the relative contributions and joint effects of artificial light pollution and climate change or other anthropic stressors still remain unknown. To fill this knowledge gap, we utilized in situ plant phenological observations of seven tree species during 1991-2015 in Europe, night-time light dataset and gridded temperature dataset to investigate the impacts of the artificial light pollution on spatial-temporal shifts of plant phenological phases under climatic warming. We found 70% of the observation sites were exposed to increased light pollution during 1992-2015. Among them, plant phenological phases substantially delayed at 12-39% observation sites of leaf-out, and 6-53% of flowering. We also found plant species appeared to be more sensitive to artificial light pollution, and phenology advancement was hindered more prominently and even delay phenomenon exhibited when the color level showed stronger sky brightness. Linear mixed models indicate that although temperature plays a dominant role in shifts of plant phenological phases at the spatial scale, the inhibitory effect of artificial light pollution is evident considering the interactions. To our knowledge, this study is the first to quantitatively establish the relationship between artificial light pollution and plant phenology across species and locations. Meanwhile, these findings provide a new insight into the ecological responses of plant phenology to the potential but poorly understood environmental stressors under this warmer world and call for light pollution to be accorded the equal status as other global change phenomena.

Green with phenology

[Figure: see text].

How Does Spring Phenology Respond to Climate Change in Ecologically Fragile Grassland? A Case Study from the Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Vegetation phenology is an important indicator of global climate change, and the response of grassland phenology to climate change is particularly sensitive in ecologically fragile areas. To enhance the ecological security of the Tibetan Plateau, it is crucial to determine the relationship between fluctuations in the start of the growing season (SOS) and the response to environmental factors. We investigated the trends of the intra-annual (ten-day) and interannual spatiotemporal dynamics of the SOS on the Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (NQTP) from 2000–2020 with MOD09GA data. We identified the response relationships with environmental factors (climate, terrain) using the maximum value composite method and the Savitzky–Golay filtering and dynamic threshold method. The SOS was concentrated from the 110th to 150th days; the average annual SOS was on the 128th day, with a spatial pattern of “early in the east and late in the west”. The overall trend of the SOS was advanced (45.48%); the regions with the advanced trend were mainly distributed in the eastern part of the NQTP. The regions with a delayed SOS were mainly concentrated in the higher-altitude regions in the southwest (38.31%). The temperature, precipitation and SOS exhibited a reverse fluctuation trend around the midpoint of 2010. Precipitation affected the SOS earlier than temperature. When temperature became a limitation of the SOS, precipitation had a more significant regulatory effect on the SOS. The SOS and aspect, slope and altitude were distributed in axisymmetric, pyramidal and inverted pyramidal shapes, respectively. The SOS on shaded slopes was earlier and more intensive than that on sunny slopes. With increasing slope, the area of the SOS decreased, and it occurred later. The SOS area was largest at 4500–5000 m and decreased at lower and higher altitude intervals. The SOS occurred later as altitude increased.

Limited increase in asynchrony between the onset of spring green-up and the arrival of a long-distance migratory bird

For many migrant bird species around the world, climate change has been shown to induce changes in the timings of arrival and the onset of spring food availability at breeding sites. However, whether such changes enlarged asynchrony between the timings of spring arrival of long-distance migratory birds and onset of vegetation greenness increase remain controversial. We used a 29-year phenological dataset to investigate the temporal changes in spring first-sighting date (FSD) of a long-distance migratory bird (barn swallow, Hirundo rustica), from observations at 160 local breeding sites across northern China, and the vegetation green-up onset date (VGD), determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness. We found that both FSD and VGD trended earlier at over two-thirds of the breeding sites. FSD significantly advanced at 26.9% of the sites, and VGD significantly advanced at 23.8% of the sites. The degree of asynchrony between FSD and VGD changed significantly at one-third of the breeding sites (22.5% with an increase versus 11.3% with a decrease), leading to a limited increase of phenological mismatch. We speculated that climate change did not disrupt the climatic connections between most breeding sites and corresponding non-breeding sites (wintering grounds and migration routes). Our findings suggest that climate change may not greatly increase phenological mismatch between first arrival date of barn swallows and VGD at breeding sites. Importantly, this study should serve as a cue to encourage ecologists and conservation biologists to expand the context under which to explore the ecological consequences of phenological shifts beyond asynchrony, such as individual survival, population demography and ecosystem-level consequences.

A simple explanation for declining temperature sensitivity with warming

Recently, multiple studies have reported declining phenological sensitivities (∆ days per ℃) with higher temperatures. Such observations have been used to suggest climate change is reshaping biological processes, with major implications for forecasts of future change. Here, we show that these results may simply be the outcome of using linear models to estimate nonlinear temperature responses, specifically for events that occur after a cumulative thermal threshold is met-a common model for many biological events. Corrections for the nonlinearity of temperature responses consistently remove the apparent decline. Our results show that rising temperatures combined with linear estimates based on calendar time produce the observations of declining sensitivity-without any shift in the underlying biology. Current methods may thus undermine efforts to identify when and how warming will reshape biological processes.

Response of Vegetation Photosynthetic Phenology to Urbanization in Dongting Lake Basin, China

Urbanization can induce environmental changes such as the urban heat island effect, which in turn influence the terrestrial ecosystem. However, the effect of urbanization on the phenology of subtropical vegetation remains relatively unexplored. This study analyzed the changing trend of vegetation photosynthetic phenology in Dongting Lake basin, China, and its response to urbanization using nighttime light and chlorophyll fluorescence datasets. Our results indicated the start of the growing season (SOS) of vegetation in the study area was significantly advanced by 0.70 days per year, whereas the end of the growing season (EOS) was delayed by 0.24 days per year during 2000–2017. We found that urbanization promoted the SOS advance and EOS delay. With increasing urbanization intensity, the sensitivity of SOS to urbanization firstly increased then decreased, while the sensitivity of EOS to urbanization decreased with urbanization intensity. The climate sensitivity of vegetation phenology varied with urbanization intensity; urbanization induced an earlier SOS by increasing preseason minimum temperatures and a later EOS by increasing preseason precipitation. These findings improve our understanding of the vegetation phenology response to urbanization in subtropical regions and highlight the need to integrate human activities into future vegetation phenology models.

Quantification of Urban Heat Island-Induced Contribution to Advance in Spring Phenology: A Case Study in Hangzhou, China

Plant phenology is one of the key regulators of ecosystem processes, which are sensitive to environmental change. The acceleration of urbanization in recent years has produced substantial impacts on vegetation phenology over urban areas, such as the local warming induced by the urban heat island effect. However, quantitative contributions of the difference of land surface temperature (LST) between urban and rural (ΔLST) and other factors to the difference of spring phenology (i.e., the start of growing season, SOS) between urban and rural (ΔSOS) were rarely reported. Therefore, the objective of this study is to explore impacts of urbanization on SOS and distinguish corresponding contributions. Using Hangzhou, a typical subtropical metropolis, as the study area, vegetation index-based phenology data (MCD12Q2 and MYD13Q1 EVI) and land surface temperature data (MYD11A2 LST) from 2006–2018 were adopted to analyze the urban–rural gradient in phenology characteristics through buffers. Furthermore, we exploratively quantified the contributions of the ΔLST to the ΔSOS based on a temperature contribution separation model. We found that there was a negative coupling between SOS and LST in over 90% of the vegetated areas in Hangzhou. At the sample-point scale, SOS was weakly, but significantly, negatively correlated with LST at the daytime (R2 = 0.2 and p < 0.01 in rural; R2 = 0.14 and p < 0.05 in urban) rather than that at nighttime. Besides, the ΔSOS dominated by the ΔLST contributed more than 70% of the total ΔSOS. We hope this study could help to deepen the understanding of responses of urban ecosystem to intensive human activities.

Urbanization imprint on land surface phenology: The urban-rural gradient analysis for Chinese cities

Rising temperature shifts plant phenology. Chinese cities, experiencing extensive expansion and intensive warming, spanning a wide latitudinal range, might provide ideal experimental opportunities for observing and predicting phenological responses to warming temperature. Using the urban-rural gradient approach, we explored urbanization imprint on land surface phenology across the entire urbanization intensity (UI) gradient ranging from 0% to 100% in 343 Chinese cities using the VIIRS Land Surface Phenology along with MODIS Land Surface Temperature (LST) products. We found prevalent advancing and delaying trends for the start of the growing season (SOS) and the end of the growing season (EOS) with increasing UI across 343 Chinese cities, respectively. Overall, the phenology shifted earlier by 8.6 ± 0.54 days for SOS, later by 1.3 ± 0.51 days for EOS, and lengthened by 9.9 ± 0.77 days for the growing season length (GSL) in urban core areas (UI above 50%) relative to their rural counterparts (UI lower than 1%). The temperature sensitivity of SOS and EOS was 10.5 ± 0.25 days earlier and 2.9 ± 0.16 days later per 1°C LST increase in spring and autumn, respectively. Moreover, the northern cities witnessed higher temperature sensitivity for SOS and EOS than the southern ones. Both spring and autumn temperature sensitivity across these 343 cities would likely decrease with future urban warming, suggesting any projections of future phenological responses to continued warming must be approached with caution.

Photoperiod decelerates the advance of spring phenology of six deciduous tree species under climate warming

Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980-2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod-induced shifts in spring leaf-out across latitudes (up to 1.7 days per latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf-out and advancing late leaf-out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf-out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.

Applications of Local Climate Zone Classification Scheme to Improve Urban Sustainability: A Bibliometric Review

Many of the sustainable urban development issues, such as human heath, energy consumption, carbon emission, are related to the climate of cities. As a result, research insights gained in urban climate study can be applied to improve urban sustainability. Although the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) scheme was originally proposed to provide a standardized classification of landscapes to study urban air temperature, its use was not limited to the study of urban heat islands. This study explores the applications of LCZ scheme in various research domains by conducting a bibliometric analysis in CiteSpace on over 800 articles that cites the original article of LCZ. These articles cover a wide range of research categories including meteorology, atmospheric science, environmental science, remote sensing, building technology, civil engineering, ecology, urban studies, etc. The LCZ scheme facilitates urban climate data collection by refining monitoring network, providing reasonable modelling input, and improving database documentation. In addition to the study of urban heat islands, the LCZ scheme was applied in studies of urban thermal comfort, human health, building energy consumption, and carbon emission. The diffusion of the LCZ scheme to other research domains offers an example that the development of urban climate research advances sustainable urban development. This review provides insights of multidisciplinary studies related to urban climate for policy-makers, urban specialists, architects, ecologists, and others.

Vegetation Phenology Influenced by Rapid Urbanization of The Yangtze Delta Region

Impacts of urbanization and climate change on ecosystems are widely studied, but these drivers of change are often difficult to isolate from each other and interactions are complicated. Ecosystem responses to each of these drivers are perhaps most clearly seen in phenology changes due to global climate change (warming climate) and urbanization (heat island effect). The phenology of vegetation can influence many important ecological processes, including primary production, evapotranspiration, and plant fitness. Therefore, evaluating the interacting effects of urbanization and climate change on vegetation phenology has the potential to provide information about the long-term impact of global change. Using remotely sensed time series of vegetation on the Yangtze River Delta in China, this study evaluated the impacts of rapid urbanization and climate change on vegetation phenology along an urban to rural gradient over time. Phenology markers were extracted annually from an 18-year time series by fitting the asymmetric Gaussian function model. Thermal remote sensing acquired at daytime and nighttime was used to explore the relationship between land surface temperature and vegetation phenology. On average, the spring phenology marker was 9.6 days earlier and the autumn marker was 6.63 days later in urban areas compared with rural areas. The spring phenology of urban areas advanced and the autumn phenology delayed over time. Across space and time, warmer spring daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures were related to earlier spring, while autumn daytime and nighttime land surface temperatures were related to later autumn phenology. These results suggest that urbanization, through surface warming, compounds the effect of climate change on vegetation phenology.