Low potential for evolutionary rescue from climate change in a tropical fish

A Long-Lived Alpine Perennial Advances Flowering under Warmer Conditions but Not Enough to Maintain Reproductive Success

AbstractAssessing whether phenological shifts in response to climate change confer a fitness advantage requires investigating the relationships among phenology, fitness, and environmental drivers of selection. Despite widely documented advancements in phenology with warming climate, we lack empirical estimates of how selection on phenology varies in response to continuous climate drivers or how phenological shifts in response to warming conditions affect fitness. We leverage an unusual long-term dataset with repeated, individual measurements of phenology and reproduction in a long-lived alpine plant. We analyze phenotypic plasticity in flowering phenology in relation to two climate drivers, snowmelt timing and growing degree days (GDDs). Plants flower earlier with increased GDDs and earlier snowmelt, and directional selection also favors earlier flowering under these conditions. However, reproduction still declines with warming and early snowmelt, even when flowering is early. Furthermore, the steepness of this reproductive decline increases dramatically with warming conditions, resulting in very little fruit production regardless of flowering time once GDDs exceed approximately 225 degree days or snowmelt occurs before May 15. Even though advancing phenology confers a fitness advantage relative to stasis, these shifts are insufficient to maintain reproduction under warming, highlighting limits to the potential benefits of phenological plasticity under climate change.

Hypoxia alters the upper thermal limits and blood physiology in zebrafish, Danio rerio

Hypoxic aquatic environments occur more frequently as a result of climate change, thereby exerting challenges on the physiological and metabolic functions of aquatic animals. In this study, a model fish, zebrafish (Danio rerio) was used to observe the climate-induced hypoxic effect on the upper thermal limit (critical thermal maximum; CTmax), hemoglobin, and blood glucose levels, and abnormalities of erythrocytes at cellular and nuclear level. The value of CTmax decreased significantly under hypoxia (39.10 ± 0.96 °C) compared to normoxia (43.70 ± 0.91 °C). At CTmax, hemoglobin levels were much lower (9.33 ± 0.60 g/dL) and blood glucose levels were significantly higher (194.20 ± 11.33 mg/L) under hypoxia than they were under normoxia and at the beginning of the experiment. Increased frequencies of abnormalities in the erythrocytes at both cellular (fusion, twin, elongated, spindle and tear drop shaped) and nuclear (micronucleus, karyopyknosis, binuclei, nuclear degeneration and notched nuclei) levels were also found under hypoxia compared to normoxia. These results suggest that hypoxic conditions significantly alter the temperature tolerance and subsequent physiology in zebrafish. Our findings will aid in the development of effective management techniques for aquatic environments with minimum oxygen availability.

High temperature delays and low temperature accelerates evolution of a new protein phenotype

Since the origin of life, temperatures on earth have fluctuated both on short and long time scales. How such changes affect the rate at which Darwinian evolution can bring forth new phenotypes remains unclear. On the one hand, high temperature may accelerate phenotypic evolution because it accelerates most biological processes. On the other hand, it may slow phenotypic evolution, because proteins are usually less stable at high temperatures and therefore less evolvable. Here, to test these hypotheses experimentally, we evolved a green fluorescent protein in E. coli towards the new phenotype of yellow fluorescence at different temperatures. Yellow fluorescence evolved most slowly at high temperature and most rapidly at low temperature, in contradiction to the first hypothesis. Using high-throughput population sequencing, protein engineering, and biochemical assays, we determined that this is due to the protein-destabilizing effect of neofunctionalizing mutations. Destabilization is highly detrimental at high temperature, where neofunctionalizing mutations cannot be tolerated. Their detrimental effects can be mitigated through excess stability at low temperature, leading to accelerated adaptive evolution. By modifying protein folding stability, temperature alters the accessibility of mutational paths towards high-fitness genotypes. Our observations have broad implications for our understanding of how temperature changes affect evolutionary adaptations and innovations.

Incorporating climate-readiness into fisheries management strategies

Tropical oceans are among the first places to exhibit climate change signals, affecting the habitat distribution and abundance of marine fish. These changes to stocks, and subsequent impacts on fisheries production, may have considerable implications for coastal communities dependent on fisheries for food security and livelihoods. Understanding the impacts of climate change on tropical marine fisheries is therefore an important step towards developing sustainable, climate-ready fisheries management measures. We apply an established method of spatial meta-analysis to assess species distribution modelling datasets for key species targeted by the Philippines capture fisheries. We analysed datasets under two global emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and varying degrees of fishing pressure to quantify potential climate vulnerability of the target community. We found widespread responses to climate change in pelagic species in particular, with abundances projected to decline across much of the case study area, highlighting the challenges of maintaining food security in the face of a rapidly changing climate. We argue that sustainable fisheries management in the Philippines in the face of climate change can only be achieved through management strategies that allow for the mitigation of, and adaptation to, pressures already locked into the climate system for the near term. Our analysis may support this, providing fisheries managers with the means to identify potential climate change hotspots, bright spots and refugia, thereby supporting the development of climate-ready management plans.

Breeding and Selecting Corals Resilient to Global Warming

Selective breeding of resilient organisms is an emerging topic in marine conservation. It can help us predict how species will adapt in the future and how we can help restore struggling populations effectively in the present. Scleractinian corals represent a potential tractable model system given their widescale phenotypic plasticity across fitness-related traits and a reproductive life history based on mass synchronized spawning. Here, I explore the justification for breeding in corals, identify underutilized pathways of acclimation, and highlight avenues for quantitative targeted breeding from the coral host and symbiont perspective. Specifically, the facilitation of enhanced heat tolerance by targeted breeding of plasticity mechanisms is underutilized. Evidence from theoretical genetics identifies potential pitfalls, including inattention to physical and genetic characteristics of the receiving environment. Three criteria for breeding emerge from this synthesis: selection from warm, variable reefs that have survived disturbance. This information will be essential to protect what we have and restore what we can.

Are fish immunocompetent enough to face climate change?

Ongoing climate change has already been associated with increased disease outbreaks in wild and farmed fish. Here, we evaluate the current knowledge of climate change-related ecoimmunology in teleosts with a focus on temperature, hypoxia, salinity and acidification before exploring interactive effects of multiple stressors. Our literature review reveals that acute and chronic changes in temperature and dissolved oxygen can compromise fish immunity which can lead to increased disease susceptibility. Moreover, temperature and hypoxia have already been shown to enhance the infectivity of certain pathogens/parasites and to accelerate disease progression. Too few studies exist that have focussed on acidification, but direct immune effects seem to be limited while salinity studies have led to contrasting results. Likewise, multi-stressor experiments essential for unravelling the interactions of simultaneously changing environmental factors are still scarce. This ultimately impedes our ability to estimate to what extent climate change will hamper fish immunity. Our review about epigenetic regulation mechanisms highlights the acclimation potential of the fish immune response to changing environments. However, due to the limited number of epigenetic studies, overarching conclusions cannot be drawn. Finally, we provide an outlook on how to better estimate the effects of realistic climate change scenarios in future immune studies in fish.

Heat stress reveals a fertility debt owing to postcopulatory sexual selection

Climates are changing rapidly, demanding equally rapid adaptation of natural populations. Whether sexual selection can aid such adaptation is under debate; while sexual selection should promote adaptation when individuals with high mating success are also best adapted to their local surroundings, the expression of sexually selected traits can incur costs. Here we asked what the demographic consequences of such costs may be once climates change to become harsher and the strength of natural selection increases. We first adopted a classic life history theory framework, incorporating a trade-off between reproduction and maintenance, and applied it to the male germline to generate formalized predictions for how an evolutionary history of strong postcopulatory sexual selection (sperm competition) may affect male fertility under acute adult heat stress. We then tested these predictions by assessing the thermal sensitivity of fertility (TSF) in replicated lineages of seed beetles maintained for 68 generations under three alternative mating regimes manipulating the opportunity for sexual and natural selection. In line with the theoretical predictions, we find that males evolving under strong sexual selection suffer from increased TSF. Interestingly, females from the regime under strong sexual selection, who experienced relaxed selection on their own reproductive effort, had high fertility in benign settings but suffered increased TSF, like their brothers. This implies that female fertility and TSF evolved through genetic correlation with reproductive traits sexually selected in males. Paternal but not maternal heat stress reduced offspring fertility with no evidence for adaptive transgenerational plasticity among heat-exposed offspring, indicating that the observed effects may compound over generations. Our results suggest that trade-offs between fertility and traits increasing success in postcopulatory sexual selection can be revealed in harsh environments. This can put polyandrous species under immediate risk during extreme heat waves expected under future climate change.

Resetting thermal limits: 10-year-old white sturgeon display pronounced but reversible thermal plasticity

While many ectotherms improve thermal tolerance in response to prolonged thermal stress, little is known about the lasting effects of warm acclimation after returning to cooler temperatures. Furthermore, thermal stress may disproportionately impact threatened and endangered species. To address this, we repeatedly measured critical thermal maxima (CTmax; °C) and associated stress responses (hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, plasma cortisol) of endangered subadult white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) in response to control temperature (pre-acclimation; 14°C), after 1 month at either control or warm temperature (acclimation; 14°C or 20°C), and after one smonth following return to control temperature (post-acclimation; 14°C). While control fish demonstrated fairly repeatable thermal tolerance (interclass correlation coefficient = 0.479), warm-acclimated fish experienced a ∼3.1°C increase in thermal tolerance and when re-acclimated to control temperature, decreased thermal tolerance ∼1.9°C. Hematocrit, hemoglobin concentration, and final splenic somatic index (spleen mass relative to whole body mass, collected after post-acclimation CTmax) were not significantly different between control and treatment fish, suggesting no effects of warm acclimation on aerobic capacity. Plasma cortisol was significantly higher in control fish after pre-acclimation and post-acclimation CTmax trials, but importantly, acclimation temperature did not affect this response. Strikingly, final hepatosomatic index (relative liver size) was 45% lower in treatment fish, indicating warm acclimation may have lasting effects on energy usage and metabolism, even after reacclimating to control temperature. To our knowledge, these 10-year-old subadult sturgeon are the oldest sturgeon experimentally tested with regards to thermal plasticity and demonstrate incredible capacity for thermal acclimation relative to other fishes. However, more research is needed to determine whether the ability to acclimate to warm temperature may come with a persistent cost.

Adaptation of sea turtles to climate warming: Will phenological responses be sufficient to counteract changes in reproductive output?

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.

Geography and developmental plasticity shape post-larval thermal tolerance in the golden star tunicate, Botryllus schlosseri

Local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity play key roles in mediating organisms' ability to respond to spatiotemporal variation in temperature. These two processes often act together to generate latitudinal or elevational clines in acute temperature tolerance. Phenotypic plasticity is also subject to local adaptation, with the expectation that populations inhabiting more variable environments should exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity of thermal tolerance. Here we examine the potential for local adaptation and developmental plasticity of thermal tolerance in the widespread invasive tunicate Botryllus schlosseri. By comparing five populations across a thermal gradient spanning 4.4° of latitude in the northwest Atlantic, we demonstrate that warmer populations south of the Gulf of Maine exhibit significantly increased (∼0.2 °C) post-larval temperature tolerance relative to the colder populations within it. We also show that B. schlosseri post-larvae possess a high degree of developmental plasticity for this trait, shifting their median temperature of survival (LT50) upwards by as much as 0.18 °C per 1 °C increase in environmental temperature. Lastly, we found that populations vary in their degrees of developmental plasticity, with populations that experience more pronounced short-term temperature variability exhibiting greater developmental plasticity, suggesting the local adaptation of developmental plasticity. By comparing the thermal tolerance of populations across space and through time, we demonstrate how geography and developmental plasticity have shaped thermal tolerance in B. schlosseri. These results help inform our understanding of how species are able to adjust their thermal physiology in new environments, including those encountered during invasion and under increasingly novel climate conditions.

Thermal sensitivity of field metabolic rate predicts differential futures for bluefin tuna juveniles across the Atlantic Ocean

Changing environmental temperatures impact the physiological performance of fishes, and consequently their distributions. A mechanistic understanding of the linkages between experienced temperature and the physiological response expressed within complex natural environments is often lacking, hampering efforts to project impacts especially when future conditions exceed previous experience. In this study, we use natural chemical tracers to determine the individual experienced temperatures and expressed field metabolic rates of Atlantic bluefin tuna (Thunnus thynnus) during their first year of life. Our findings reveal that the tuna exhibit a preference for temperatures 2-4 °C lower than those that maximise field metabolic rates, thereby avoiding temperatures warm enough to limit metabolic performance. Based on current IPCC projections, our results indicate that historically-important spawning and nursery grounds for bluefin tuna will become thermally limiting due to warming within the next 50 years. However, limiting global warming to below 2 °C would preserve habitat conditions in the Mediterranean Sea for this species. Our approach, which is based on field observations, provides predictions of animal performance and behaviour that are not constrained by laboratory conditions, and can be extended to any marine teleost species for which otoliths are available.

Proteostasis governs differential temperature sensitivity across embryonic cell types

Embryonic development is remarkably robust, but temperature stress can degrade its ability to generate animals with invariant anatomy. Phenotypes associated with environmental stress suggest that some cell types are more sensitive to stress than others, but the basis of this sensitivity is unknown. Here, we characterize hundreds of individual zebrafish embryos under temperature stress using whole-animal single-cell RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) to identify cell types and molecular programs driving phenotypic variability. We find that temperature perturbs the normal proportions and gene expression programs of numerous cell types and also introduces asynchrony in developmental timing. The notochord is particularly sensitive to temperature, which we map to a specialized cell type: sheath cells. These cells accumulate misfolded protein at elevated temperature, leading to a cascading structural failure of the notochord and anatomic defects. Our study demonstrates that whole-animal single-cell RNA-seq can identify mechanisms for developmental robustness and pinpoint cell types that constitute key failure points.

"Bet hedging" against climate change in developing and adult animals: roles for stochastic gene expression, phenotypic plasticity, epigenetic inheritance and adaptation

Animals from embryos to adults experiencing stress from climate change have numerous mechanisms available for enhancing their long-term survival. In this review we consider these options, and how viable they are in a world increasingly experiencing extreme weather associated with climate change. A deeply understood mechanism involves natural selection, leading to evolution of new adaptations that help cope with extreme and stochastic weather events associated with climate change. While potentially effective at staving off environmental challenges, such adaptations typically occur very slowly and incrementally over evolutionary time. Consequently, adaptation through natural selection is in most instances regarded as too slow to aid survival in rapidly changing environments, especially when considering the stochastic nature of extreme weather events associated with climate change. Alternative mechanisms operating in a much shorter time frame than adaptation involve the rapid creation of alternate phenotypes within a life cycle or a few generations. Stochastic gene expression creates multiple phenotypes from the same genotype even in the absence of environmental cues. In contrast, other mechanisms for phenotype change that are externally driven by environmental clues include well-understood developmental phenotypic plasticity (variation, flexibility), which can enable rapid, within-generation changes. Increasingly appreciated are epigenetic influences during development leading to rapid phenotypic changes that can also immediately be very widespread throughout a population, rather than confined to a few individuals as in the case of favorable gene mutations. Such epigenetically-induced phenotypic plasticity can arise rapidly in response to stressors within a generation or across a few generations and just as rapidly be "sunsetted" when the stressor dissipates, providing some capability to withstand environmental stressors emerging from climate change. Importantly, survival mechanisms resulting from adaptations and developmental phenotypic plasticity are not necessarily mutually exclusive, allowing for classic "bet hedging". Thus, the appearance of multiple phenotypes within a single population provides for a phenotype potentially optimal for some future environment. This enhances survival during stochastic extreme weather events associated with climate change. Finally, we end with recommendations for future physiological experiments, recommending in particular that experiments investigating phenotypic flexibility adopt more realistic protocols that reflect the stochastic nature of weather.

Differential effects of parental and developmental temperatures on larval thermal adaptation in oviparous and viviparous model fish species

Phenotypic plasticity has been identified as a major mechanism of response to changing temperatures. Parental effects are potentially important drivers of ecological and evolutionary dynamics, while developmental plasticity also plays a key role in generating phenotypic variation. However, little is known of the interaction between parental effects and developmental plasticity on the thermal phenotypes of fishes with different reproductive modes (i.e. oviparous vs. viviparous). To understand the contributions of inter- and intra-generational plasticity of thermal phenotypes (preferred temperature, avoidance temperatures, critical thermal thresholds) in fishes with different reproductive modes, we carried out a factorial experiment in which both breeding parents and offspring were exposed to lower (22 °C) or higher (28 °C) temperatures, using zebrafish (Danio rerio) and guppies (Poecilia reticulata) as representative oviparous and viviparous species. We found that offspring thermal preference and avoidance of both species were significantly influenced by parental effects and developmental plasticity, with higher thermal preference and avoidance consistent with higher background (parental) temperature treatments. However, parental effects were only found to impose significant effect on the thermal tolerances of guppies. The findings suggest that phenotypic plasticity, both within and across generations, may be an important mechanism to adapt to rapid climate changes, and that future temperature fluctuations may impose more profound effects on viviparous fish species in general.

Shifts in survival and reproduction after chronic warming enhance the potential of a marine copepod to persist under extreme heat events

The study of a species' thermal tolerance and vital rates responses provides useful metrics to characterize its vulnerability to ocean warming. Under prolonged thermal stress, plastic and adaptive processes can adjust the physiology of organisms. Yet it is uncertain whether the species can expand their upper thermal limits to cope with rapid and extreme changes in environmental temperature. In this study, we reared the marine copepod Paracartia grani at control (19°C) and warmer conditions (25°C) for >18 generations and assessed their survival and fecundity under short-term exposure to a range of temperatures (11-34°C). After multigenerational warming, the upper tolerance to acute exposure (24 h) increased by 1-1.3°C, although this enhancement decreased to 0.3-0.8°C after longer thermal stress (7 days). Warm-reared copepods were smaller and produced significantly fewer offspring at the optimum temperature. No shift in the thermal breadth of the reproductive response was observed. Yet the fecundity rates of the warm-reared copepods in the upper thermal range were up to 21-fold higher than the control. Our results show that chronic warming improved tolerance to stress temperatures and fecundity of P. grani, therefore, enhancing its chances to persist under extreme heat events.

Genetic architecture of acute hyperthermia resistance in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and genetic correlations with production traits

BACKGROUND

Selective breeding is a promising solution to reduce the vulnerability of fish farms to heat waves, which are predicted to increase in intensity and frequency. However, limited information about the genetic architecture of acute hyperthermia resistance in fish is available. Two batches of sibs from a rainbow trout commercial line were produced: the first (N = 1382) was phenotyped for acute hyperthermia resistance at nine months of age and the second (N = 1506) was phenotyped for main production traits (growth, body length, muscle fat content and carcass yield) at 20 months of age. Fish were genotyped on a 57 K single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array and their genotypes were imputed to high-density based on the parent's genotypes from a 665 K SNP array.

RESULTS

The heritability estimate of resistance to acute hyperthermia was 0.29 ± 0.05, confirming the potential of selective breeding for this trait. Since genetic correlations of acute hyperthermia resistance with the main production traits near harvest age were all close to zero, selecting for acute hyperthermia resistance should not impact the main production traits, and vice-versa. A genome-wide association study revealed that resistance to acute hyperthermia is a highly polygenic trait, with six quantitative trait loci (QTL) detected, but explaining less than 5% of the genetic variance. Two of these QTL, including the most significant one, may explain differences in acute hyperthermia resistance across INRAE isogenic lines of rainbow trout. Differences in mean acute hyperthermia resistance phenotypes between homozygotes at the most significant SNP was 69% of the phenotypic standard deviation, showing promising potential for marker-assisted selection. We identified 89 candidate genes within the QTL regions, among which the most convincing functional candidates are dnajc7, hsp70b, nkiras2, cdk12, phb, fkbp10, ddx5, cygb1, enpp7, pdhx and acly.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides valuable insight into the genetic architecture of acute hyperthermia resistance in juvenile rainbow trout. We show that the selection potential for this trait is substantial and selection for this trait should not be too detrimental to improvement of other traits of interest. Identified functional candidate genes provide new knowledge on the physiological mechanisms involved in acute hyperthermia resistance, such as protein chaperoning, oxidative stress response, homeostasis maintenance and cell survival.

Identification of upper thermal thresholds during development in the endangered Nechako white sturgeon with management implications for a regulated river

Climate change-induced warming effects are already evident in river ecosystems, and projected increases in temperature will continue to amplify stress on fish communities. In addition, many rivers globally are impacted by dams, which have many negative effects on fishes by altering flow, blocking fish passage, and changing sediment composition. However, in some systems, dams present an opportunity to manage river temperature through regulated releases of cooler water. For example, there is a government mandate for Kenney dam operators in the Nechako river, British Columbia, Canada, to maintain river temperature <20°C in July and August to protect migrating sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka). However, there is another endangered fish species inhabiting the same river, Nechako white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus), and it is unclear if these current temperature regulations, or timing of the regulations, are suitable for spawning and developing sturgeon. In this study, we aimed to identify upper thermal thresholds in white sturgeon embryos and larvae to investigate if exposure to current river temperatures are playing a role in recruitment failure. We incubated embryos and yolk-sac larvae in three environmentally relevant temperatures (14, 18 and 21°C) throughout development to identify thermal thresholds across different levels of biological organization. Our results demonstrate upper thermal thresholds at 21°C across physiological measurements in embryo and yolk-sac larvae white sturgeon. Before hatch, both embryo survival and metabolic rate were reduced at 21°C. After hatch, sublethal consequences continued at 21°C because larval sturgeon had decreased thermal plasticity and a dampened transcriptional response during development. In recent years, the Nechako river has reached 21°C by the end of June, and at this temperature, a decrease in sturgeon performance is evident in most of the traits measured. As such, the thermal thresholds identified here suggest current temperature regulations may not be suitable for developing white sturgeon and future recruitment.

The ecological relevance of critical thermal maxima methodology for fishes

Critical thermal maxima methodology (CTM) has been used to infer acute upper thermal tolerance in fishes since the 1950s, yet its ecological relevance remains debated. In this study, the authors synthesize evidence to identify methodological concerns and common misconceptions that have limited the interpretation of critical thermal maximum (CT_max ; value for an individual fish during one trial) in ecological and evolutionary studies of fishes. They identified limitations of, and opportunities for, using CT_max as a metric in experiments, focusing on rates of thermal ramping, acclimation regimes, thermal safety margins, methodological endpoints, links to performance traits and repeatability. Care must be taken when interpreting CTM in ecological contexts, because the protocol was originally designed for ecotoxicological research with standardized methods to facilitate comparisons within study individuals, across species and contexts. CTM can, however, be used in ecological contexts to predict impacts of environmental warming, but only if parameters influencing thermal limits, such as acclimation temperature or rate of thermal ramping, are taken into account. Applications can include mitigating the effects of climate change, informing infrastructure planning or modelling species distribution, adaptation and/or performance in response to climate-related temperature change. The authors' synthesis points to several key directions for future research that will further aid the application and interpretation of CTM data in ecological contexts.

Effects of Hudson River Stressors on Atlantic Tomcod: Contaminants and a Warming Environment

The Hudson River (HR) Estuary has a long history of pollution with a variety of contaminants including PCBs, and dioxins. In fact, 200 miles of the mainstem HR is designated a U.S. federal Superfund site, the largest in the nation, because of PCB contamination. The tidal HR hosts the southernmost spawning population of Atlantic tomcod, and studies revealed a correlation between exposure of juveniles to warm water temperature during summer to abundance of spawning adults of the same cohort in the following winter. Further, a battery of mechanistically linked biomarkers, ranging from the molecular to the population levels, were significantly impacted from contaminant exposures of the HR tomcod population. In response to xenobiotic insult, the HR tomcod population developed resistance to PCB sand TCDD toxicity resulting from a deletion in the aryl hydrocarbon receptor2 (AHR2) gene. Furthermore, RNA-Seq analysis of global gene expression demonstrated that effects of the AHR2 polymorphism were far more pervasive than anticipated. The most highly PCB-contaminated sediments in the upper HR were dredged between 2009 and 2015 with the objective of lowering PCB concentrations in fishes in the lower HR. Success of the remediation project has been controversial. These observations suggest that tomcod provides an informative model to evaluate the efficacy of HR PCB remediation efforts on downriver fish populations and possible interactive effects between contaminant exposure and a warming environment.

Reducing bias in experimental ecology through directed acyclic graphs

Ecologists often rely on randomized control trials (RCTs) to quantify causal relationships in nature. Many of our foundational insights of ecological phenomena can be traced back to well‐designed experiments, and RCTs continue to provide valuable insights today. Although RCTs are often regarded as the “gold standard” for causal inference, it is important to recognize that they too rely on a set of causal assumptions that must be justified and met by the researcher to draw valid causal conclusions. We use key ecological examples to show how biases such as confounding, overcontrol, and collider bias can occur in experimental setups. In tandem, we highlight how such biases can be removed through the application of the structural causal model (SCM) framework. The SCM framework visualizes the causal structure of a system or process under study using directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and subsequently applies a set of graphical rules to remove bias from both observational and experimental data. We show how DAGs can be applied across ecological experimental studies to ensure proper study design and statistical analysis, leading to more accurate causal estimates drawn from experimental data. Although causal conclusions drawn from RCTs are often taken at face value, ecologists are increasingly becoming aware that experimental approaches must be carefully designed and analyzed to avoid potential biases. By applying DAGs as a visual and conceptual tool, experimental ecologists can increasingly meet the causal assumptions required for valid causal inference.

Invited review - the effects of anthropogenic abiotic stressors on the sensory systems of fishes

Climate change is a growing global issue with many countries and institutions declaring a climate state of emergency. Excess CO₂ from anthropogenic sources and changes in land use practices are contributing to many detrimental changes, including increased global temperatures, ocean acidification and hypoxic zones along coastal habitats. All senses are important for aquatic animals, as it is how they can perceive and respond to their environment. Some of these environmental challenges have been shown to impair their sensory systems, including the olfactory, visual, and auditory systems. While most of the research is focused on how ocean acidification affects olfaction, there is also evidence that it negatively affects vision and hearing. The effects that temperature and hypoxia have on the senses have also been investigated, but to a much lesser extent in comparison to ocean acidification. This review assembles the known information on how these anthropogenic challenges affect the sensory systems of fishes, but also highlights what gaps in knowledge remain with suggestions for immediate action. Olfaction, vision, otolith, pH, freshwater, seawater, marine, central nervous system, electrophysiology, mechanism.

Spatial variation in the evolutionary potential and constraints of basal metabolic rate and body mass in a wild bird

An organism's energy budget is strongly related to resource consumption, performance, and fitness. Hence, understanding the evolution of key energetic traits, such as basal metabolic rate (BMR), in natural populations is central for understanding life-history evolution and ecological processes. Here we used quantitative genetic analyses to study evolutionary potential of BMR in two insular populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We obtained measurements of BMR and body mass (M_b ) from 911 house sparrows on the islands of Leka and Vega along the coast of Norway. These two populations were the source populations for translocations to create an additional third, admixed 'common garden' population in 2012. With the use of a novel genetic group animal model concomitant with a genetically determined pedigree, we differentiate genetic and environmental sources of variation, thereby providing insight into the effects of spatial population structure on evolutionary potential. We found that the evolutionary potential of BMR was similar in the two source populations, whereas the Vega population had a somewhat higher evolutionary potential of M_b than the Leka population. BMR was genetically correlated with M_b in both populations, and the conditional evolutionary potential of BMR (independent of body mass) was 41% (Leka) and 53% (Vega) lower than unconditional estimates. Overall, our results show that there is potential for BMR to evolve independently of M_b , but that selection on BMR and/or M_b may have different evolutionary consequences in different populations of the same species.

Behavioural thermoregulation in cold-water freshwater fish: Innate resilience to climate warming?

Behavioural thermoregulation enables ectotherms to access habitats providing conditions within their temperature optima, especially in periods of extreme thermal conditions, through adjustments to their behaviours that provide a "whole-body" response to temperature changes. Although freshwater fish have been detected as moving in response to temperature changes to access habitats that provide their thermal optima, there is a lack of integrative studies synthesising the extent to which this is driven by behaviour across different species and spatial scales. A quantitative global synthesis of behavioural thermoregulation in freshwater fish revealed that across 77 studies, behavioural thermoregulatory movements by fish were detected both vertically and horizontally, and from warm to cool waters and, occasionally, the converse. When fish moved from warm to cooler habitats, the extent of the temperature difference between these habitats decreased with increasing latitude, with juvenile and non-migratory fishes tolerating greater temperature differences than adult and anadromous individuals. With most studies focused on assessing movements of cold-water salmonids during summer periods, there remains an outstanding need for work on climatically vulnerable, non-salmonid fishes to understand how these innate thermoregulatory behaviours could facilitate population persistence in warming conditions.

Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Acute, diel, and annual temperature variability and the thermal biology of ectotherms

Global warming is increasing mean temperatures and altering temperature variability at multiple temporal scales. To better understand the consequences of changes in thermal variability for ectotherms it is necessary to consider thermal variation at different time scales (i.e., acute, diel, and annual) and the responses of organisms within and across generations. Thermodynamics constrain acute responses to temperature, but within these constraints and over longer time periods, organisms have the scope to adaptively acclimate or evolve. Yet, hypotheses and predictions about responses to future warming tend not to explicitly consider the temporal scale at which temperature varies. Here, focusing on multicellular ectothermic animals, we argue that consideration of multiple processes and constraints associated with various timescales is necessary to better understand how altered thermal variability because of climate change will affect ectotherms.

A comprehensive database of amphibian heat tolerance

Rising temperatures represent a significant threat to the survival of ectothermic animals. As such, upper thermal limits represent an important trait to assess the vulnerability of ectotherms to changing temperatures. For instance, one may use upper thermal limits to estimate current and future thermal safety margins (i.e., the proximity of upper thermal limits to experienced temperatures), use this trait together with other physiological traits in species distribution models, or investigate the plasticity and evolvability of these limits for buffering the impacts of changing temperatures. While datasets on thermal tolerance limits have been previously compiled, they sometimes report single estimates for a given species, do not present measures of data dispersion, and are biased towards certain parts of the globe. To overcome these limitations, we systematically searched the literature in seven languages to produce the most comprehensive dataset to date on amphibian upper thermal limits, spanning 3,095 estimates across 616 species. This resource will represent a useful tool to evaluate the vulnerability of amphibians, and ectotherms more generally, to changing temperatures.

Impacts of Low Oxygen on Marine Life: Neglected, but a Crucial Priority for Research

AbstractGlobal ocean O₂ content has varied significantly across the eons, both shaping and being shaped by the evolutionary history of life on planet Earth. Indeed, past O₂ fluctuations have been associated with major extinctions and the reorganization of marine biota. Moreover, its most recent iteration-now anthropogenically driven-represents one of the most prominent challenges for both marine ecosystems and human societies, with ocean deoxygenation being regarded as one of the main drivers of global biodiversity loss. Yet ocean deoxygenation has received far less attention than concurrent environmental variables of marine climate change, namely, ocean warming and acidification, particularly in the field of experimental marine ecology. Together with the lack of consistent criteria defining gradual and acute changes in O₂ content, a general lack of multifactorial studies featuring all three drivers and their interactions prevents an adequate interpretation of the potential effects of extreme and gradual deoxygenation. We present a comprehensive overview of the interplay between O₂ and marine life across space and time and discuss the current knowledge gaps and future steps for deoxygenation research. This work may also contribute to the ongoing call for an integrative perspective on the combined effects of these three drivers of change for marine organisms and ecosystems worldwide.

Too Hot to Eat: Wild and Lab-Bred Lymnaea stagnalis Differ in Feeding Response Following Repeated Heat Exposure

AbstractAcute extreme heat events are increasing in frequency and intensity. Understanding their effects on ectothermic organisms' homeostasis is both important and urgent. In this study we found that the exposure to an acute heat shock (30 °C for 1 hour) repeated for a seven-day period severely suppressed the feeding behavior of laboratory-inbred (W-strain) Lymnaea stagnalis, whereas the first-generation offspring of freshly collected wild (F₁ D-strain) snails raised and maintained under similar laboratory conditions did not show any alterations. The W-strain snails might have inadvertently been selected against heat tolerance since they were first brought into the laboratory many (∼70) years ago. We also posit that the F₁ D-strain snails do not perceive the heat shock as a sufficient stressor to alter their feeding response because their parental populations in wild environments have repeatedly experienced temperature fluctuations, thus becoming more tolerant and resilient to heat. The different responses exhibited by two strains of the same species highlight the importance of selecting the most appropriate strain for addressing questions about the impacts of global warming on organisms' physiology and behavior.

Temperature-dependent plasticity mediates heart morphology and thermal performance of cardiac function in juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

In many fishes, upper thermal tolerance is thought to be limited in part by the heart's ability to meet increased oxygen demands during periods of high temperature. Temperature-dependent plasticity within the cardiovascular system may help fishes cope with the thermal stress imposed by increasing water temperatures. In this study, we examined plasticity in heart morphology and function in juvenile Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) reared under control (+0°C) or elevated (+4°C) temperatures. Using noninvasive Doppler echocardiography, we measured the effect of acute warming on maximum heart rate, stroke distance, and derived cardiac output. A 4°C increase in average developmental temperature resulted in a>5°C increase in the Arrhenius breakpoint temperature for maximum heart rate and enabled the hearts of these fish to continue beating rhythmically to temperatures approximately 2°C higher than control fish. However, these differences in thermal performance were not associated with plasticity in maximum cardiovascular capacity, as peak measures of heart rate, stroke distance, and derived cardiac output did not differ between temperature treatments. Histological analysis of the heart revealed that while ventricular roundness and relative ventricle size did not differ between treatments, the proportion of compact myocardium in the ventricular wall was significantly greater in fish raised at elevated temperatures. Our findings contribute to the growing understanding of how the thermal environment can affect phenotypes later in life and identifies a morphological strategy that may help fishes cope with acute thermal stress.

A limit on the evolutionary rescue of an Antarctic bacterium from rising temperatures

Climate change is gradual, but it can also cause brief extreme heat waves that can exceed the upper thermal limit of any one organism. To study the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance, we evolved the cold-adapted Antarctic bacterium Pseudoalteromonas haloplanktis to survive at 30°C, beyond its ancestral thermal limit. This high-temperature adaptation occurred rapidly and in multiple populations. It involved genomic changes that occurred in a highly parallel fashion and mitigated the effects of protein misfolding. However, it also confronted a physiological limit, because populations failed to grow beyond 30°C. Our experiments aimed to facilitate evolutionary rescue by using a small organism with large populations living at temperatures several degrees below their upper thermal limit. Larger organisms with smaller populations and living at temperatures closer to their upper thermal tolerances are even more likely to go extinct during extreme heat waves.

Reduced physiological plasticity in a fish adapted to stable temperatures

Significance Plastic individuals can buffer environmental changes, maintaining a stable performance across gradients. Plasticity is therefore thought to be particularly beneficial for the survival of wild populations that experience large environmental fluctuations, such as diel and seasonal temperature changes. Maintaining plasticity is widely assumed to be costly; however, empirical evidence demonstrating this cost is scarce. Here, we predict that if plasticity is costly, it would be readily lost in a stable environment, such as a laboratory. To test this, we measured a diverse range of phenotypic traits, spanning gene expression, physiology, and behavior, in wild and laboratory zebrafish acclimated to 15 temperatures. We show that laboratory fish have lost plasticity in many traits, demonstrating that maintaining plasticity carries a cost.

Evolutionary trade-offs between heat and cold tolerance limit responses to fluctuating climates

The evolutionary potential of species to cope with short-term temperature fluctuations during reproduction is critical to predicting responses to future climate change. Despite this, vertebrate research has focused on reproduction under high or low temperatures in relatively stable temperate climates. Here, we characterize the genetic basis of reproductive thermal tolerance to temperature fluctuations in the ostrich, which lives in variable environments in tropical and subtropical Africa. Both heat and cold tolerance were under selection and heritable, indicating the potential for evolutionary responses to mean temperature change. However, we found evidence for a negative, genetic correlation between heat and cold tolerance that should limit the potential for adaptation to fluctuating temperatures. Genetic constraints between heat and cold tolerance appear a crucial, yet underappreciated, factor influencing responses to climate change.

Multigenerational exposure to increased temperature reduces metabolic rate but increases boldness in Gambusia affinis

Acute exposure to warming temperatures increases minimum energetic requirements in ectotherms. However, over and within multiple generations, increased temperatures may cause plastic and evolved changes that modify the temperature sensitivity of energy demand and alter individual behaviors. Here, we aimed to test whether populations recently exposed to geothermally elevated temperatures express an altered temperature sensitivity of metabolism and behavior. We expected that long‐term exposure to warming would moderate metabolic rate, reducing the temperature sensitivity of metabolism, with concomitant reductions in boldness and activity. We compared the temperature sensitivity of metabolic rate (acclimation at 20 vs. 30°C) and allometric slopes of routine, standard, and maximum metabolic rates, in addition to boldness and activity behaviors, across eight recently divergent populations of a widespread fish species (Gambusia affinis). Our data reveal that warm‐source populations express a reduced temperature sensitivity of metabolism, with relatively high metabolic rates at cool acclimation temperatures and relatively low metabolic rates at warm acclimation temperatures compared to ambient‐source populations. Allometric scaling of metabolism did not differ with thermal history. Across individuals from all populations combined, higher metabolic rates were associated with higher activity rates at 20°C and bolder behavior at 30°C. However, warm‐source populations displayed relatively bolder behavior at both acclimation temperatures compared to ambient‐source populations, despite their relatively low metabolic rates at warm acclimation temperatures. Overall, our data suggest that in response to warming, multigenerational exposure (e.g., plasticity, adaptation) may not result in trait change directed along a simple “pace‐of‐life syndrome” axis, instead causing relative decreases in metabolism and increases in boldness. Ultimately, our data suggest that multigenerational warming may produce a novel combination of physiological and behavioral traits, with consequences for animal performance in a warming world.

Evolution of thermal physiology alters the projected range of threespine stickleback under climate change

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict range shifts but could be unreliable under climate change scenarios because they do not account for evolution. The thermal physiology of a species is a key determinant of its range and thus incorporating thermal trait evolution into SDMs might be expected to alter projected ranges. We identified a genetic basis for physiological and behavioural traits that evolve in response to temperature change in natural populations of threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Using these data, we created geographical range projections using a mechanistic niche area approach under two climate change scenarios. Under both scenarios, trait data were either static ("no evolution" models), allowed to evolve at observed evolutionary rates ("evolution" models) or allowed to evolve at a rate of evolution scaled by the trait variance that is explained by quantitative trait loci (QTL; "scaled evolution" models). We show that incorporating these traits and their evolution substantially altered the projected ranges for a widespread panmictic marine population, with over 7-fold increases in area under climate change projections when traits are allowed to evolve. Evolution-informed SDMs should improve the precision of forecasting range dynamics under climate change, and aid in their application to management and the protection of biodiversity.

Evolvability: A Quantitative-Genetics Perspective

The concept of evolvability emerged in the early 1990s and soon became fashionable as a label for different streams of research in evolutionary biology. In evolutionary quantitative genetics, evolvability is defined as the ability of a population to respond to directional selection. This differs from other fields by treating evolvability as a property of populations rather than organisms or lineages and in being focused on quantification and short-term prediction rather than on macroevolution. While the term evolvability is new to quantitative genetics, many of the associated ideas and research questions have been with the field from its inception as biometry. Recent research on evolvability is more than a relabeling of old questions, however. New operational measures of evolvability have opened possibilities for understanding adaptation to rapid environmental change, assessing genetic constraints, and linking micro- and macroevolution.

Genetic variation for upper thermal tolerance diminishes within and between populations with increasing acclimation temperature in Atlantic salmon

Populations may counteract lasting temperature changes or recurrent extremes through plasticity or adaptation. However, it remains underexplored how outbreeding, either naturally, unintentionally, or facilitated, may modify a local response potential and whether genotype-by-environment interactions or between-trait correlations can restrict this potential. We quantified population differences and outbreeding effects, within-population genetic variation, and plasticity of these, for thermal performance proxy traits using 32 pedigreed wild, domesticated, and wild-domesticated Atlantic salmon families reared under common-garden conditions. Following exposure to ambient cold (11.6 °C) or ~4° and ~8° warmer summer temperatures, populations differed notably for body length and critical thermal maximum (CT_max) and for thermal plasticity of length, condition, and CT_max, but not for haematocrit. Line-cross analysis suggested mostly additive and some dominant outbreeding effects on means and solely additive outbreeding effects on plasticity. Heritability was detected for all traits. However, with increasing acclimation temperature, differences in CT_max between populations and CT_max heritability diminished, and CT_max breeding values re-ranked. Furthermore, CT_max and body size were negatively correlated at the genetic and phenotypic levels, and there was indirect evidence for a positive correlation between growth potential and thermal performance breadth for growth. Thus, population differences (including those between wild and domesticated populations) in thermal performance and plasticity may present a genetic resource in addition to the within-population genetic variance to facilitate, or impede, thermal adaptation. However, unfavourable genotype-by-environment interactions and negative between-trait correlations may generally hamper joint evolution in response to an increase in average temperature and temporary extremes.

Intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance differs between tropical and temperate fishes

How ectothermic animals will cope with global warming is a critical determinant of the ecological impacts of climate change. There has been extensive study of upper thermal tolerance limits among fish species but how intraspecific variation in tolerance may be affected by habitat characteristics and evolutionary history has not been considered. Intraspecific variation is a primary determinant of species vulnerability to climate change, with implications for global patterns of impacts of ongoing warming. Using published critical thermal maximum (CT_max) data on 203 fish species, we found that intraspecific variation in upper thermal tolerance varies according to a species’ latitude and evolutionary history. Overall, tropical species show a lower intraspecific variation in thermal tolerance than temperate species. Notably, freshwater tropical species have a lower variation in tolerance than freshwater temperate species, which implies increased vulnerability to impacts of thermal stress. The extent of variation in CT_max among fish species has a strong phylogenetic signal, which may indicate a constraint on evolvability to rising temperatures in tropical fishes. That is, in addition to living closer to their upper thermal limits, tropical species may have higher sensitivity and lower adaptability to global warming compared to temperate counterparts. This is evidence that freshwater tropical fish communities, worldwide, are especially vulnerable to ongoing climate change.

Predicting responses to marine heatwaves using functional traits

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), discrete but prolonged periods of anomalously warm seawater, can fundamentally restructure marine communities and ecosystems. Although our understanding of these events has improved in recent years, key knowledge gaps hinder our ability to predict how MHWs will affect patterns of biodiversity. Here, we outline a functional trait approach that enables a better understanding of which species and communities will be most vulnerable to MHWs, and how the distribution of species and composition of communities are likely to shift through time. Our perspective allows progress toward unifying extreme events and longer term environmental trends as co-drivers of ecological change, with the incorporation of species traits into our predictions allowing for a greater capacity to make management decisions.

Negative relationship between thermal tolerance and plasticity in tolerance emerges during experimental evolution in a widespread marine invertebrate

Whether populations can adapt to predicted climate change conditions, and how rapidly, are critical questions for the management of natural systems. Experimental evolution has become an important tool to answer these questions. In order to provide useful, realistic insights into the adaptive response of populations to climate change, there needs to be careful consideration of how genetic differentiation and phenotypic plasticity interact to generate observed phenotypic changes. We exposed three populations of the widespread copepod Acartia tonsa (Crustacea) to chronic, sublethal temperature selection for 15 generations. We generated thermal survivorship curves at regular intervals both during and after this period of selection to track the evolution of thermal tolerance. Using reciprocal transplants between ambient and warming conditions, we also tracked changes in the strength of phenotypic plasticity in thermal tolerance. We observed significant increases in thermal tolerance in the Warming lineages, while plasticity in thermal tolerance was strongly reduced. We suggest these changes are driven by a negative relationship between thermal tolerance and plasticity in thermal tolerance. Our results indicate that adaptation to warming through an increase in thermal tolerance might not reduce vulnerability to climate change if the increase comes at the expense of tolerance plasticity. These results illustrate the importance of considering changes in both a trait of interest and the trait plasticity during experimental evolution.

Sex-specific ornament evolution is a consistent feature of climatic adaptation across space and time in dragonflies

Adaptation to different climates fuels the origins and maintenance of biodiversity. Detailing how organisms optimize fitness for their local climates is therefore an essential goal in biology. Although we increasingly understand how survival-related traits evolve as organisms adapt to climatic conditions, it is unclear whether organisms also optimize traits that coordinate mating between the sexes. Here, we show that dragonflies consistently adapt to warmer climates across space and time by evolving less male melanin ornamentation-a mating-related trait that also absorbs solar radiation and heats individuals above ambient temperatures. Continent-wide macroevolutionary analyses reveal that species inhabiting warmer climates evolve less male ornamentation. Community-science observations across 10 species indicate that populations adapt to warmer parts of species' ranges through microevolution of smaller male ornaments. Observations from 2005 to 2019 detail that contemporary selective pressures oppose male ornaments in warmer years; and our climate-warming projections predict further decreases by 2070. Conversely, our analyses show that female ornamentation responds idiosyncratically to temperature across space and time, indicating the sexes evolve in different ways to meet the demands of the local climate. Overall, these macro- and microevolutionary findings demonstrate that organisms predictably optimize their mating-related traits for the climate just as they do their survival-related traits.

Interindividual plasticity in metabolic and thermal tolerance traits from populations subjected to recent anthropogenic heating

To better understand temperature's role in the interaction between local evolutionary adaptation and physiological plasticity, we investigated acclimation effects on metabolic performance and thermal tolerance among natural Fundulus heteroclitus (small estuarine fish) populations from different thermal environments. Fundulus heteroclitus populations experience large daily and seasonal temperature variations, as well as local mean temperature differences across their large geographical cline. In this study, we use three populations: one locally heated (32°C) by thermal effluence (TE) from the Oyster Creek Nuclear Generating Station, NJ, and two nearby reference populations that do not experience local heating (28°C). After acclimation to 12 or 28°C, we quantified whole-animal metabolic (WAM) rate, critical thermal maximum (CTmax) and substrate-specific cardiac metabolic rate (CaM, substrates: glucose, fatty acids, lactate plus ketones plus ethanol, and endogenous (i.e. no added substrates)) in approximately 160 individuals from these three populations. Populations showed few significant differences due to large interindividual variation within populations. In general, for WAM and CTmax, the interindividual variation in acclimation response (log2 ratio 28/12°C) was a function of performance at 12°C and order of acclimation (12-28°C versus 28-12°C). CTmax and WAM were greater at 28°C than 12°C, although WAM had a small change (2.32-fold) compared with the expectation for a 16°C increase in temperature (expect 3- to 4.4-fold). By contrast, for CaM, the rates when acclimatized and assayed at 12 or 28°C were nearly identical. The small differences in CaM between 12 and 28°C temperature were partially explained by cardiac remodeling where individuals acclimatized to 12°C had larger hearts than individuals acclimatized to 28°C. Correlation among physiological traits was dependent on acclimation temperature. For example, WAM was negatively correlated with CTmax at 12°C but positively correlated at 28°C. Additionally, glucose substrate supported higher CaM than fatty acid, and fatty acid supported higher CaM than lactate, ketones and alcohol (LKA) or endogenous. However, these responses were highly variable with some individuals using much more FA than glucose. These findings suggest interindividual variation in physiological responses to temperature acclimation and indicate that additional research investigating interindividual may be relevant for global climate change responses in many species.

Quantitative assessment of observed versus predicted responses to selection

Although artificial-selection experiments seem well suited to testing our ability to predict evolution, the correspondence between predicted and observed responses is often ambiguous due to the lack of uncertainty estimates. We present equations for assessing prediction error in direct and indirect responses to selection that integrate uncertainty in genetic parameters used for prediction and sampling effects during selection. Using these, we analyzed a selection experiment on floral traits replicated in two taxa of the Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) species complex for which G-matrices were obtained from a diallel breeding design. After four episodes of bidirectional selection, direct and indirect responses remained within wide prediction intervals, but appeared different from the predictions. Combined analyses with structural-equation models confirmed that responses were asymmetrical and lower than predicted in both species. We show that genetic drift is likely to be a dominant source of uncertainty in typically-dimensioned selection experiments in plants and a major obstacle to predicting short-term evolutionary trajectories.

The sensory impacts of climate change: bathymetric shifts and visually mediated interactions in aquatic species

Visual perception is, in part, a function of the ambient illumination spectrum. In aquatic environments, illumination depends upon the water's optical properties and depth, both of which can change due to anthropogenic impacts: turbidity is increasing in many aquatic habitats, and many species have shifted deeper in response to warming surface waters (known as bathymetric shifts). Although increasing turbidity and bathymetric shifts can result in similarly large changes to a species' optical environment, no studies have yet examined the impact of the latter on visually mediated interactions. Here, we examine a potential link between climate change and visual perception, with a focus on colour. We discuss (i) what is known about bathymetric shifts; (ii) how the impacts of bathymetric shifts on visual interactions may be distributed across species; (iii) which interactions might be affected; and (iv) the ways that animals have to respond to these changes. As warming continues and temperature fluctuations grow more extreme, many species may move into even deeper waters. There is thus a need for studies that examine how such shifts can affect an organism's visual world, interfere with behaviour, and impact fitness, population dynamics, and community structure.

Multigenerational exposure to warming and fishing causes recruitment collapse, but size diversity and periodic cooling can aid recovery

Global warming and fisheries harvest are significantly impacting wild fish stocks, yet their interactive influence on population resilience to stress remains unclear. We explored these interactive effects on early-life development and survival by experimentally manipulating the thermal and harvest regimes in 18 zebrafish (Danio rerio) populations over six consecutive generations. Warming advanced development rates across generations, but after three generations, it caused a sudden and large (30-50%) decline in recruitment. This warming impact was most severe in populations where size-selective harvesting reduced the average size of spawners. We then explored whether our observed recruitment decline could be explained by changes in egg size, early egg and larval survival, population sex ratio, and developmental costs. We found that it was most likely driven by temperature-induced shifts in embryonic development rate and fishing-induced male-biased sex ratios. Importantly, once harvest and warming were relaxed, recruitment rates rapidly recovered. Our study suggests that the effects of warming and fishing could have strong impacts on wild stock recruitment, but this may take several generations to manifest. However, resilience of wild populations may be higher if fishing preserves sufficient body size diversity, and windows of suitable temperature periodically occur.

Low potential for evolutionary rescue from climate change in a tropical fish

Climate change is increasing global temperatures and intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme heat waves. How organisms will cope with these changes depends on their inherent thermal tolerance, acclimation capacity, and ability for evolutionary adaptation. Yet, the potential for adaptation of upper thermal tolerance in vertebrates is largely unknown. We artificially selected offspring from wild-caught zebrafish (Danio rerio) to increase (Up-selected) or decrease (Down-selected) upper thermal tolerance over six generations. Selection to increase upper thermal tolerance was also performed on warm-acclimated fish to test whether plasticity in the form of inducible warm tolerance also evolved. Upper thermal tolerance responded to selection in the predicted directions. However, compared to the control lines, the response was stronger in the Down-selected than in the Up-selected lines in which evolution toward higher upper thermal tolerance was slow (0.04 ± 0.008 °C per generation). Furthermore, the scope for plasticity resulting from warm acclimation decreased in the Up-selected lines. These results suggest the existence of a hard limit in upper thermal tolerance. Considering the rate at which global temperatures are increasing, the observed rates of adaptation and the possible hard limit in upper thermal tolerance suggest a low potential for evolutionary rescue in tropical fish living at the edge of their thermal limits.