Phenological niches and the future of invaded ecosystems with climate change

Phylogenetic conservation in plant phenological traits varies between temperate and subtropical climates in China

Phenological traits, such as leaf and flowering dates, are proven to be phylogenetically conserved. The relationship between phylogenetic conservation, plant phenology, and climatic factors remains unknown. Here, we assessed phenological features among flowering plants as evidence for phylogenetic conservatism, the tendency for closely related species to share similar ecological and biological attributes. We use spring phenological traits data from 1968-2018 of 65 trees and 49 shrubs in Xi'an (temperate climate) and Guiyang (subtropical climate) to understand plant phenological traits' relationship with phylogeny. Molecular datasets are employed in evolutionary models to test the phylogenetic conservatism in spring phenological characteristics in response to climate-sensitive phenological features. Significant phylogenetic conservation was found in the Xi'an plant's phenological traits, while there was a non-significant conservation in the Guiyang plant species. Phylogenetic generalized least squares (PGLS) models correlate with phenological features significantly in Xi'an while non-significantly in Guiyang. Based on the findings of molecular dating, it was suggested that the Guiyang species split off from their relatives around 46.0 mya during the middle Eocene of the Tertiary Cenozoic Era, while Xi'an species showed a long evolutionary history and diverged from their relatives around 95 mya during the late Cretaceous Mesozoic Era. First leaf dates (FLD) indicative of spring phenology, show that Xi'an adjourned the case later than Guiyang. Unlike FLD, first flower dates (FFD) yield different results as Guiyang flowers appear later than Xi'an's. Our research revealed that various factors, including phylogeny, growth form, and functional features, influenced the diversity of flowering phenology within species in conjunction with local climate circumstances. These results are conducive to understanding evolutionary conservation mechanisms in plant phenology concerning evolutionary processes in different geographical and climate zones.

Species traits related to the invasion of woody plants in Patagonian deciduous forests

The comparison of ecological, phenological, morphological and developmental traits between exotic invasive species and coexisting native species contributes to understand the driving mechanisms of successful invasions. This study aimed to examine which of these traits are related to the invasion of woody plants in the understory of deciduous North Patagonian forests of Argentina. We compared the phenology, shoot growth rate, number of leaves, biomass allocation, leaf herbivory, and recruitment type of two exotic deciduous trees, Crataegus monogyna and Sorbus aucuparia, with those of four coexisting native woody species (one deciduous, one semi-deciduous, and two evergreen species). Spring shoot growth took place several weeks earlier in both exotic species and in the deciduous native species than in the other native species; growth rates were higher in the exotics. Compared to coexisting native species, both exotic species developed shoots that were as long as or longer, had lower biomass allocation to leaves and higher allocation to roots, suffered lower leaf damage by herbivores and exhibited higher seed than vegetative recruitment. This study supports the idea that a combination of phenological, growth rate and mass allocation traits allow exotic species to preempt resources, thus favouring invasion processes.

Enhanced plasticity and reproductive fitness of floral and seed traits facilitate non-native species spread in mountain ecosystems

Floral and seed traits, their relationships, and responses to abiotic constraints are considered the key determinants of the invasion success of non-native plant species. However, studies evaluating the pattern of floral and seed traits of non-native species in mountain ecosystems are lacking. In this study, we determined (a) whether the floral and seed traits of native and non-native species show similarity or dissimilarity across elevations in mountains, and (b) whether the non-native species follow different allometric patterns compared with native species. Functional variations between native and non-native species were assessed through floral and seed traits: flower count, flower display area, flower mass, specific flower area, seed count, and seed mass across an elevational gradient. Permanent plots (20 × 20 m) were laid at each 100 m elevation rise from 2000 to 4000 m a.s.l. for sampling of herbaceous plant species. The mean values of floral and seed traits such as flower display area, specific flower area, and seed count were significantly higher for non-native species compared to native species. A significant difference in trait values (flower display area, flower mass, seed count, and seed mass) between non-native species and native species was observed along the elevational gradient, except for flower count and specific flower area. The bivariate relationship revealed non-native species to exhibit a stronger relationship between flower display area ∼ flower mass, and flower display area ∼ seed mass traits than the native species. Non-native species showed enhanced reproductive ability under varying environmental conditions along an elevational gradient in mountain ecosystems. Greater flower display area and seed mass at lower elevations and a stronger overall trait-trait relationship among non-native species implied resource investment in pollinator visualization, flower mass, and seed quality over seed quantity. The study concludes that enhanced plasticity and reproductive fitness of floral and seed traits would consequently aid non-native species to adapt, become invasive, and displace native species in mountain ecosystems if the climatic barriers acting on non-native species are reduced with climate change.

Characterization of Invasiveness, Thermotolerance and Light Requirement of Nine Invasive Species in China

Understanding responsible functional traits for promoting plant invasiveness could be important to aid in the development of adequate management strategies for invasive species. Seed traits play an important role in the plant life cycle by affecting dispersal ability, formation of the soil seed bank, type and level of dormancy, germination, survival and/or competitive ability. We assessed seed traits and germination strategies of nine invasive species under five temperature regimes and light/dark treatments. Our results showed a considerable level of interspecific variation in germination percentage among the tested species. Both cooler (5/10 °C) and warmer (35/40 °C) temperatures tended to inhibit germination. All study species were considered small-seeded, and seed size did not affect germination in the light. Yet, a slightly negative correlation was found between germination in the dark and seed dimensions. We classified the species into three categories according to their germination strategies: (i) risk-avoiders, mostly displaying dormant seeds with low G%; (ii) risk-takers, reaching a high G% in a broad range of temperatures; (iii) intermediate species, showing moderate G% values, which could be enhanced in specific temperature regimes. Variability in germination requirements could be important to explain species coexistence and invasion ability of plants to colonize different ecosystems.

Evaluating niche changes during invasion with seasonal models in Capsella bursa-pastoris

PREMISE

Researchers often use ecological niche models to predict where species might establish and persist under future or novel climate conditions. However, these predictive methods assume species have stable niches across time and space. Furthermore, ignoring the time of occurrence data can obscure important information about species reproduction and ultimately fitness. Here, we assess compare ecological niche models generated from full-year averages to seasonal models.

METHODS

In this study, we generate full-year and monthly ecological niche models for Capsella bursa-pastoris in Europe and North America to see if we can detect changes in the seasonal niche of the species after long-distance dispersal.

RESULTS

We find full-year ecological niche models have low transferability across continents and there are continental differences in the climate conditions that influence the distribution of C. bursa-pastoris. Monthly models have greater predictive accuracy than full-year models in cooler seasons, but no monthly models can predict North American summer occurrences very well.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative predictive ability of European monthly models compared to North American monthly models suggests a change in the seasonal timing between the native range to the non-native range. These results highlight the utility of ecological niche models at finer temporal scales in predicting species distributions and unmasking subtle patterns of evolution.

Seed Size, Seed Dispersal Traits, and Plant Dispersion Patterns for Native and Introduced Grassland Plants

Most terrestrial plants disperse by seeds, yet the relationship between seed mass, seed dispersal traits, and plant dispersion is poorly understood. We quantified seed traits for 48 species of native and introduced plants from the grasslands of western Montana, USA, to investigate the relationships between seed traits and plant dispersion patterns. Additionally, because the linkage between dispersal traits and dispersion patterns might be stronger for actively dispersing species, we compared these patterns between native and introduced plants. Finally, we evaluated the efficacy of trait databases versus locally collected data for examining these questions. We found that seed mass correlated positively with the presence of dispersal adaptations such as pappi and awns, but only for introduced plants, for which larger-seeded species were four times as likely to exhibit dispersal adaptations as smaller-seeded species. This finding suggests that introduced plants with larger seeds may require dispersal adaptations to overcome seed mass limitations and invasion barriers. Notably, larger-seeded exotics also tended to be more widely distributed than their smaller-seeded counterparts, again a pattern that was not apparent for native taxa. These results suggest that the effects of seed traits on plant distribution patterns for expanding populations may be obscured for long-established species by other ecological filters (e.g., competition). Finally, seed masses from databases differed from locally collected data for 77% of the study species. Yet, database seed masses correlated with local estimates and generated similar results. Nonetheless, average seed masses differed up to 500-fold between data sources, suggesting that local data provides more valid results for community-level questions.

The relationship between Invasive Alien Solanum elaeagnifolium Cav. characters and impacts in different habitats

Invasive alien plants are one of the most serious threats to agriculture. The growth traits of Solanum elaeagnifolium Cav. in crops and their demographics in invaded vs non-invaded communities were examined. The majority of S. elaeagnifolium germination was observed in the spring compared to the summer. Five stages were distinguished, which started with a short time of seedling and juvenile stages, extended flowering, and fruiting stages, and seed dispersion in the winter season. An increase in shoots/roots ratio, leaf area ratio and leaf mass fraction during growth with the varied rate was proved. The accumulation coefficient of dry mass exceeded 0.93 and was significant (P > 0.001) with great variability within plant parts, and stage intervals. While the high growth rate is influenced by the stages and habitats. The recipient communities are affected negatively by S. elaeagnifolium invasion which is associated with lower diversity, richness, and evenness vs non-invaded communities. High similarities were found in the invaded area and communities. Finally, high and varied growth and plasticity of S. elaeagnifolium characterized their invasion behavior via different habitats. There were suitable determinants indices of diversity that can be used in the comparison between invaded and non-invaded communities. This knowledge may be useful for use in agro-environment protection and to improve the management methods of invasive alien species.

Climate Change Helps Polar Invasives Establish and Flourish: Evidence from Long-Term Monitoring of the Blowfly Calliphora vicina

The isolated sub-Antarctic islands are of major ecological interest because of their unique species diversity and long history of limited human disturbance. However, since the presence of Europeans, these islands and their sensitive biota have been under increasing pressure due to human activity and associated biological invasions. In such delicate ecosystems, biological invasions are an exceptional threat that may be further amplified by climate change. We examined the invasion trajectory of the blowfly Calliphora vicina (Robineau-Desvoidy 1830). First introduced in the sub-Antarctic Kerguelen Islands in the 1970s, it is thought to have persisted only in sheltered microclimates for several decades. Here, we show that, in recent decades, C. vicina has been able to establish itself more widely. We combine experimental thermal developmental data with long-term ecological and meteorological monitoring to address whether warming conditions help explain its current success and dynamics in the eastern Kerguelen Islands. We found that warming temperatures and accumulated degree days could explain the species' phenological and long-term invasion dynamics, indicating that climate change has likely assisted its establishment. This study represents a unique long-term view of a polar invader and stresses the rapidly increasing susceptibility of cold regions to invasion under climate change.

Transcriptome profiling, physiological, and biochemical analyses provide new insights towards drought stress response in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) saplings

Sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marshall) is a temperate tree species in the northeastern parts of the United States and is economically important for its hardwood and syrup production. Sugar maple trees are highly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions, especially drought, so understanding the physiological, biochemical, and molecular responses is critical. The sugar maple saplings were subjected to drought stress for 7, 14, and 21 days and physiological data collected at 7, 14, and 21 days after stress (DAS) showed significantly reduced chlorophyll and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index with increasing drought stress time. The drought stress-induced biochemical changes revealed a higher accumulation of malondialdehyde, proline, and peroxidase activity in response to drought stress. Transcriptome analysis identified a total of 14,099 differentially expressed genes (DEGs); 328 were common among all stress periods. Among the DEGs, transcription factors (including NAC, HSF, ZFPs, GRFs, and ERF), chloroplast-related and stress-responsive genes such as peroxidases, membrane transporters, kinases, and protein detoxifiers were predominant. GO enrichment and KEGG pathway analysis revealed significantly enriched processes related to protein phosphorylation, transmembrane transport, nucleic acids, and metabolic, secondary metabolite biosynthesis pathways, circadian rhythm-plant, and carotenoid biosynthesis in response to drought stress. Time-series transcriptomic analysis revealed changes in gene regulation patterns in eight different clusters, and pathway analysis by individual clusters revealed a hub of stress-responsive pathways. In addition, qRT-PCR validation of selected DEGs revealed that the expression patterns were consistent with transcriptome analysis. The results from this study provide insights into the dynamics of physiological, biochemical, and gene responses to progressive drought stress and reveal the important stress-adaptive mechanisms of sugar maple saplings in response to drought stress.

Effects of drought on grassland phenology depend on functional types

Shifts in flowering phenology are important indicators of climate change. However, the role of precipitation in driving phenology is far less understood compared with other environmental cues, such as temperature. We use a precipitation reduction gradient to test the direction and magnitude of effects on reproductive phenology and reproduction across 11 plant species in a temperate grassland, a moisture-limited ecosystem. Our experiment was conducted in a single, relatively wet year. We examine the effects of precipitation for species, functional types, and the community. Our results provide evidence that reduced precipitation shifts phenology, alters flower and fruit production, and that the magnitude and direction of the responses depend on functional type and species. For example, early-blooming species shift toward earlier flowering, whereas later-blooming species shift toward later flowering. Because of opposing species-level shifts, there is no overall shift in community-level phenology. This study provides experimental evidence that changes in rainfall can drive phenological shifts. Our results additionally highlight the importance of understanding how plant functional types govern responses to changing climate conditions, which is relevant for forecasting phenology and community-level changes. Specifically, the implications of divergent phenological shifts between early- and late-flowering species include resource scarcity for pollinators and seed dispersers and new temporal windows for invasion.

Grassland allergenicity increases with urbanisation and plant invasions

Pollen allergies have been on the rise in cities, where anthropogenic disturbances, warmer climate and introduced species are shaping novel urban ecosystems. Yet, the allergenic potential of these urban ecosystems, in particular spontaneous vegetation outside parks and gardens, remains poorly known. We quantified the allergenic properties of 56 dry grasslands along a double gradient of urbanisation and plant invasion in Berlin (Germany). 30% of grassland species were classified as allergenic, most of them being natives. Urbanisation was associated with an increase in abundance and diversity of pollen allergens, mainly driven by an increase in allergenic non-native plants. While not inherently more allergenic than native plants, the pool of non-natives contributed a larger biochemical diversity of allergens and flowered later than natives, creating a broader potential spectrum of allergy. Managing novel risks to urban public health will involve not only targeted action on allergenic non-natives, but also policies at the habitat scale favouring plant community assembly of a diverse, low-allergenicity vegetation. Similar approaches could be easily replicated in other cities to provide a broad quantification and mapping of urban allergy risks and drivers.

Invasive species do not exploit early growing seasons in burned tallgrass prairies

Invasive species management is key to conserving critically threatened native prairie ecosystems. While prescribed burning is widely demonstrated to increase native diversity and suppress invasive species, elucidating the conditions under which burning is most effective remains an ongoing focus of applied prairie ecology research. Understanding how conservation management interacts with climate is increasingly pressing, because climate change is altering weather conditions and seasonal timing around the world. Increasingly early growing seasons due to climate change are shifting the timing and availability of resources and niche space, which may disproportionately advantage invasive species and influence the outcome of burning. We estimated the effects of burning, start time of the growing season, and their interaction on invasive species relative cover and frequency, two metrics for species abundance and dominance. We used 25 observed prairie sites and 853 observations of 267 transects spread throughout Minnesota, USA from 2010 to 2019 to conduct our analysis. Here, we show that burning reduced the abundance of invasive cool-season grasses, leading to reduced abundance of invasive species as a whole. This reduction persisted over time for invasive cover but quickly waned for their frequency of occurrence. Additionally, and contrary to expectations that early growing season starts benefit invasive species, we found evidence that later growing season starts increased the abundance of some invasive species. However, the effects of burning on plant communities were largely unaltered by the timing of the growing season, although earlier growing season starts weakened the effectiveness of burning on Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) and smooth brome (Bromus inermis), two of the most dominant invasive species in the region. Our results suggest that prescribed burning will likely continue to be a useful conservation tool in the context of earlier growing season starts, and that changes to growing season timing will not be a primary mechanism driving increased invasion due to climate change in these ecosystems. We propose that future research seek to better understand abiotic controls on invasive species phenology in managed systems and how burning intensity and timing interact with spring conditions.

Functional traits influence patterns in vegetative and reproductive plant phenology - a multi-botanical garden study

Phenology has emerged as key indicator of the biological impacts of climate change, yet the role of functional traits constraining variation in herbaceous species' phenology has received little attention. Botanical gardens are ideal places in which to investigate large numbers of species growing under common climate conditions. We ask whether interspecific variation in plant phenology is influenced by differences in functional traits. We recorded onset, end, duration and intensity of initial growth, leafing out, leaf senescence, flowering and fruiting for 212 species across five botanical gardens in Germany. We measured functional traits, including plant height, absolute and specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf carbon and nitrogen content and seed mass and accounted for species' relatedness. Closely related species showed greater similarities in timing of phenological events than expected by chance, but species' traits had a high degree of explanatory power, pointing to paramount importance of species' life-history strategies. Taller plants showed later timing of initial growth, and flowered, fruited and underwent leaf senescence later. Large-leaved species had shorter flowering and fruiting durations. Taller, large-leaved species differ in their phenology and are more competitive than smaller, small-leaved species. We assume climate warming will change plant communities' competitive hierarchies with consequences for biodiversity.

Different factors limit early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch development

Seasonal windows of opportunity are intervals within a year that provide improved prospects for growth, survival, or reproduction. However, few studies have sufficient temporal resolution to examine how multiple factors combine to constrain the seasonal timing and extent of developmental opportunities. Here, we document seasonal changes in milkweed (Asclepias fascicularis)-monarch (Danaus plexippus) interactions with high resolution throughout the last three breeding seasons prior to a precipitous single-year decline in the western monarch population. Our results show early- and late-season windows of opportunity for monarch recruitment that were constrained by different combinations of factors. Early-season windows of opportunity were characterized by high egg densities and low survival on a select subset of host plants, consistent with the hypothesis that early-spring migrant female monarchs select earlier-emerging plants to balance a seasonal trade-off between increasing host plant quantity and decreasing host plant quality. Late-season windows of opportunity were coincident with the initiation of host plant senescence, and caterpillar success was negatively correlated with heatwave exposure, consistent with the hypothesis that late-season windows were constrained by plant defense traits and thermal stress. Throughout this study, climatic and microclimatic variations played a foundational role in the timing and success of monarch developmental windows by affecting bottom-up, top-down, and abiotic limitations. More exposed microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during cooler conditions, and more shaded microclimates were associated with higher developmental success during warmer conditions, suggesting that habitat heterogeneity could buffer the effects of climatic variation. Together, these findings show an important dimension of seasonal change in milkweed-monarch interactions and illustrate how different biotic and abiotic factors can limit the developmental success of monarchs across the breeding season. These results also suggest the potential for seasonal sequences of favorable or unfavorable conditions across the breeding range to strongly affect monarch population dynamics.

Phenological displacement is uncommon among sympatric angiosperms

Interactions between species can influence successful reproduction, resulting in reproductive character displacement, where the similarity of reproductive traits - such as flowering time - among close relatives growing together differ from when growing apart. Evidence for the overall prevalence and direction of this phenomenon, and its stability under environmental change, remains untested across large scales. Using the power of crowdsourcing, we gathered phenological information from over 40 000 herbarium specimens, and investigated displacement in flowering time across 110 animal-pollinated species in the eastern USA. Overall, flowering time displacement is not common across large scales. However, displacement is generally greater among species pairs that flower close in time, regardless of direction. Furthermore, with climate change, the flowering times of closely related species are predicted, on average, to shift further apart by the mid-21^st century. We demonstrate that the degree and direction of phenological displacement among co-occurring closely related species pairs varies tremendously. However, future climate change may alter the differences in reproductive timing among many of these species pairs, which may have significant consequences for species interactions and gene flow. Our study provides one promising path towards understanding how the phenological landscape is structured and may respond to future environmental change.

A Mechanistic Framework for Understanding the Effects of Climate Change on the Link Between Flowering and Fruiting Phenology

Phenological shifts are a widely studied consequence of climate change. Little is known, however, about certain critical phenological events, nor about mechanistic links between shifts in different life-history stages of the same organism. Among angiosperms, flowering times have been observed to advance with climate change, but, whether fruiting times shift as a direct consequence of shifting flowering times, or respond differently or not at all to climate change, is poorly understood. Yet, shifts in fruiting could alter species interactions, including by disrupting seed dispersal mutualisms. In the absence of long-term data on fruiting phenology, but given extensive data on flowering, we argue that an understanding of whether flowering and fruiting are tightly linked or respond independently to environmental change can significantly advance our understanding of how fruiting phenologies will respond to warming climates. Through a case study of biotically and abiotically dispersed plants, we present evidence for a potential functional link between the timing of flowering and fruiting. We then propose general mechanisms for how flowering and fruiting life history stages could be functionally linked or independently driven by external factors, and we use our case study species and phenological responses to distinguish among proposed mechanisms in a real-world framework. Finally, we identify research directions that could elucidate which of these mechanisms drive the timing between subsequent life stages. Understanding how fruiting phenology is altered by climate change is essential for all plant species but is particularly critical to sustaining the large numbers of plant species that rely on animal-mediated dispersal, as well as the animals that rely on fruit for sustenance.

Macrophenology: insights into the broad-scale patterns, drivers, and consequences of phenology

Plant phenology research has surged in recent decades, in part due to interest in phenological sensitivity to climate change and the vital role phenology plays in ecology. Many local-scale studies have generated important findings regarding the physiology, responses, and risks associated with shifts in plant phenology. By comparison, our understanding of regional- and global-scale phenology has been largely limited to remote sensing of green-up without the ability to differentiate among plant species. However, a new generation of analytical tools and data sources-including enhanced remote sensing products, digitized herbarium specimen data, and public participation in science-now permits investigating patterns and drivers of phenology across extensive taxonomic, temporal, and spatial scales, in an emerging field that we call macrophenology. Recent studies have highlighted how phenology affects dynamics at broad scales, including species interactions and ranges, carbon fluxes, and climate. At the cusp of this developing field of study, we review the theoretical and practical advances in four primary areas of plant macrophenology: (1) global patterns and shifts in plant phenology, (2) within-species changes in phenology as they mediate species' range limits and invasions at the regional scale, (3) broad-scale variation in phenology among species leading to ecological mismatches, and (4) interactions between phenology and global ecosystem processes. To stimulate future research, we describe opportunities for macrophenology to address grand challenges in each of these research areas, as well as recently available data sources that enhance and enable macrophenology research.

Plant phenological responses to experimental warming-A synthesis

Although there is abundant evidence that plant phenology is shifting with climatic warming, the magnitude and direction of these shifts can depend on the environmental context, plant species, and even the specific phenophase of study. These disparities have resulted in difficulties predicting future phenological shifts, detecting phenological mismatches and identifying other ecological consequences. Experimental warming studies are uniquely poised to help us understand how climate warming will impact plant phenology, and meta-analyses allow us to expose broader trends from individual studies. Here, we review 70 studies comprised 1226 observations of plant phenology under experimental warming. We find that plants are advancing their early-season phenophases (bud break, leaf-out, and flowering) in response to warming while marginally delaying their late-season phenophases (leaf coloration, leaf fall, and senescence). We find consistency in the magnitude of phenological shifts across latitude, elevation, and habitat types, whereas the effect of warming on nonnative annual plants is two times larger than the effect of warming on native perennial plants. Encouragingly for researchers, plant phenological responses were generally consistent across a variety of experimental warming methods. However, we found numerous gaps in the experimental warming literature, limiting our ability to predict the effects of warming on phenological shifts. In particular, studies outside of temperate ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere, or those that focused on late-season phenophases, annual plants, nonnative plants, or woody plants and grasses, were underrepresented in our data set. Future experimental warming studies could further refine our understanding of phenological responses to warming by setting up experiments outside of traditionally studied biogeographic zones and measuring multiple plant phenophases (especially late-season phenophases) across species of varying origin, growth form, and life cycle.

Phylogenetic restriction of plant invasion in drought-stressed environments: Implications for insect-pollinated plant communities in water-limited ecosystems

BACKGROUND

Plant-pollinator community diversity has been found to decrease under conditions of drought stress; however, research into the temporal dimensions of this phenomenon remains limited. In this study, we investigated the effect of seasonal drought on the temporal niche dynamics of entomophilous flowering plants in a water-limited ecosystem. We hypothesized that closely related native and exotic plants would tend to share similar life history and that peak flowering events would therefore coincide with phylogenetic clustering in plant communities based on expected phenological responses of plant functional types to limitations in soil moisture availability.

LOCATION

Galiano Island, British Columbia, Canada.

METHODS

Combining methods from pollinator research and phylogenetic community ecology, we tested the influence of environmental filtering over plant community phenology across gradients of landscape disturbance and soil moisture. Floral resource availability and community structure were quantified by counts of flowering shoots. We constructed a robust phylogeny to analyze spatial and temporal variation in phylogenetic patterns across the landscape, testing the significance of the observed patterns against a randomly generated community phylogeny. Phylogenetic metrics were then regressed against factors of disturbance and soil moisture availability.

RESULTS

Critical seasonal fluctuations in floral resources coincided with significant phylogenetic clustering in plant communities, with decreasing plant diversity observed under conditions of increasing drought stress. Exotic plant species in the Asteraceae became increasingly pervasive across the landscape, occupying a late season temporal niche in drought-stressed environments.

MAIN CONCLUSION

Results suggest that environmental filtering is the dominant assembly process structuring the temporal niche of plant communities in this water-limited ecosystem. Based on these results, and trends seen elsewhere, the overall diversity of plant-pollinator communities may be expected to decline with the increasing drought stress predicted under future climate scenarios.

Functional traits predict resident plant response to Reynoutria japonica invasion in riparian and fallow communities in southern Poland

Reynoutria japonica is one of the most harmful invasive species in the world, dramatically reducing the diversity of resident vegetation. To mitigate the impact of R. japonica on ecosystems and properly manage affected areas, understanding the mechanisms behind this plant's invasive success is imperative. This study aimed to comprehensively analyse plant communities invaded by R. japonica, taking into account species traits, habitat conditions and seasonal variability, and to determine the ecological profile of species that withstand the invader's pressure. The study was performed in fallow and riparian areas in southern Poland. Pairs of adjacent plots were established at 25 sites with no obvious signs of recent human disturbance. One plot contained R. japonica, and the other contained only resident vegetation. For each plot, botanical data were collected and soil physicochemical properties were determined. Twelve sites were surveyed four times, in two springs and two summers, to capture seasonal variability. The presence of R. japonica was strongly associated with reduced resident plant species diversity and/or abundance. In addition to the ability to quickly grow and form a dense canopy that shades the ground, the success of the invader likely resulted from the production of large amounts of hard-to-decompose litter. The indirect impact of R. japonica by controlling the availability of nutrients in the soil might also play a role. A few species coexisted with R. japonica. They can be classified into three groups: (i) spring ephemerals - geophytic forbs with a mixed life history strategy, (ii) lianas with a competitive strategy and (iii) hemicryptophytic forbs with a competitive strategy. Species from the first two groups likely avoided competition for light by temporal or spatial niche separation (they grew earlier than or above the invasive plant), whereas the high competitive abilities of species from the third group likely enabled them to survive in R. japonica patches.

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically - how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment - is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.

Elevated Temperature Induced Adaptive Responses of Two Lupine Species at Early Seedling Phase

This study aimed to investigate the impact of climate warming on hormonal traits of invasive and non-invasive plants at the early developmental stage. Two different lupine species—invasive Lupinus polyphyllus Lindl. and non-invasive Lupinus luteus L.—were used in this study. Plants were grown in climate chambers under optimal (25 °C) and simulated climate warming conditions (30 °C). The content of phytohormone indole-3-acetic acid (IAA), ethylene production and the adaptive growth of both species were studied in four-day-old seedlings. A higher content of total IAA, especially of IAA-amides and transportable IAA, as well as higher ethylene emission, was determined to be characteristic for invasive lupine both under optimal and simulated warming conditions. It should be noted that IAA-L-alanine was detected entirely in the invasive plants under both growth temperatures. Further, the ethylene emission values increased significantly in invasive lupine hypocotyls under 30 °C. Invasive plants showed plasticity in their response by reducing growth in a timely manner and adapting to the rise in temperature. Based on the data of the current study, it can be suggested that the invasiveness of both species may be altered under climate warming conditions.

Diversity of plant assemblages dampens the variability of the growing season phenology in wetland landscapes

Background

The functioning of ecosystems is highly variable through space and time. Climatic and edaphic factors are forcing ecological communities to converge, whereas the diversity of plant assemblages dampens these effects by allowing communities’ dynamics to diverge. This study evaluated whether the growing season phenology of wetland plant communities within landscapes is determined by the climatic/edaphic factors of contrasted regions, by the species richness of plant communities, or by the diversity of plant assemblages. From 2013 to 2016, we monitored the phenology and floristic composition of 118 wetland plant communities across five landscapes distributed along a gradient of edaphic and climatic conditions in the Province of Québec, Canada.

Results

The growing season phenology of wetlands was driven by differences among plant assemblage within landscapes, and not by the species richness of each individual community (< 1% of the explained variation). Variation in the growing season length of wetlands reflected the destabilizing effect of climatic and edaphic factors on green-up dates, which is opposed to the dampening effect of plant assemblage diversity on green-down dates.

Conclusions

The latter dampening effect may be particularly important in the context of increasing anthropogenic activities, which are predicted to impair the ability of wetlands to adapt to fluctuating environmental conditions. Our findings suggest that stakeholders should not necessarily consider local species-poor plant communities of lower conservation value to the global functioning of wetland ecosystems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01817-6.

Epigenetic responses of hare barley (Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum) to climate change: an experimental, trait-based approach

The impact of reduced rainfall and increased temperatures forecasted by climate change models on plant communities will depend on the capacity of plant species to acclimate and adapt to new environmental conditions. The acclimation process is mainly driven by epigenetic regulation, including structural and chemical modifications on the genome that do not affect the nucleotide sequence. In plants, one of the best-known epigenetic mechanisms is cytosine-methylation. We evaluated the impact of 30% reduced rainfall (hereafter "drought" treatment; D), 3 °C increased air temperature ("warming"; W), and the combination of D and W (WD) on the phenotypic and epigenetic variability of Hordeum murinum subsp. leporinum L., a grass species of high relevance in Mediterranean agroforestry systems. A full factorial experiment was set up in a savannah-like ecosystem located in southwestern Spain. H. murinum exhibited a large phenotypic plasticity in response to climatic conditions. Plants subjected to warmer conditions (i.e., W and WD treatments) flowered earlier, and those subjected to combined stress (WD) showed a higher investment in leaf area per unit of leaf mass (i.e., higher SLA) and produced heavier seeds. Our results also indicated that both the level and patterns of methylation varied substantially with the climatic treatments, with the combination of D and W inducing a clearly different epigenetic response compared to that promoted by D and W separately. The main conclusion achieved in this work suggests a potential role of epigenetic regulation of gene expression for the maintenance of homoeostasis and functional stability under future climate change scenarios.

Plasticity and selection drive hump-shaped latitudinal patterns of flowering phenology in an invasive intertidal plant

Patterns of flowering phenology can affect the success of plant invasions, especially when introduced species spread across a wide range of latitude into different climatic conditions. We combined a 4-yr field survey and a 3-yr common garden experiment with the invasive grass Spartina alterniflora that is now widespread along the coast of China to document the latitudinal pattern of flowering phenology, determine if phenology was related to climate or oceanographic variables, and determine whether phenology patterns were fixed versus plastic. In the field, first flowering day displayed a hump-shaped relationship with latitude, with low- and high-latitude plants flowering 100 d and 10 d earlier than plants at middle latitudes, respectively. Peak flowering day showed a similar hump-shaped relationship with latitude, with the interval between first and peak flowering day decreasing with increasing latitude. First flowering day had a hump-shaped relationship with annual growing degree days but a linear positive relationship with tidal range. In the common garden, first flowering day decreased linearly with increasing latitude of origin, as did peak flowering day, and the interval between first and peak flowering day increased with increasing latitude. First flowering day in the common garden had weak or no relationships with abiotic variables at the sites of origin. In both the field and common garden, first flowering day was later in site years for which plants were taller. These results indicate a high degree of plasticity in flowering phenology, with plants flowering later in the field at sites with intermediate temperatures and high tide ranges. Common garden results indicate some selection for earlier flowering at sites with low temperatures, consistent with a shorter growing season. Consistent with life-history theory, plants flowered later under conditions favoring vigorous growth. Earlier flowering and smaller size of plants at high and low latitudes suggests that S. alterniflora has already occupied much of the geographic range favorable for it on the East Coast of Asia.

Corner's rules pass the test of time: little effect of phenology on leaf-shoot and other scaling relationships

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Twig cross-sectional area and the surface area of leaves borne on it are expected to be isometrically correlated across species (Corner's rules). However, how stable this relationship remains in time is not known. We studied inter- and intraspecific twig leaf area-cross-sectional area (la-cs) and other scaling relationships, including the leaf-shoot mass (lm-sm) scaling relationship, across a complete growing season. We also examined the influence of plant height, deciduousness and the inclusion of reproductive buds on the stability of the scaling relationships, and we discuss results from a functional perspective.

METHODS

We collected weekly current-year twigs of six Patagonian woody species that differed in growth form and foliar habit. We also used prominent inflorescences from Embothrium coccineum (Proteaceae) to assess whether reproductive buds alter the la-cs isometric relationship. Mixed effects models were fitted to obtain parameter estimates and to test whether interaction terms were non-significant (invariant) for the scaling relationships.

KEY RESULTS

The slope of the la-cs scaling relationship remained invariant across the growing season. Two species showed contrasting and disproportional (allometric) la-cs scaling relationships (slope ≠ 1). Scaling relationships varied significantly across growth form and foliar habit. The lm-sm scaling relationship differed between reproductive- and vegetative-origin twigs in E. coccineum, which was explained by a significantly lower leaf mass per area in the former.

CONCLUSIONS

Although phenology during the growing season appeared not to change leaf-shoot scaling relationships across species, we show that scaling relationships departed from the general trend of isometry as a result of within-species variation, growth form, foliar habit and the type of twig. The identification of these functional factors helps to understand variation in the general trend of Corner's rules.

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum's phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments' legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

Shifts in timing and duration of breeding for 73 boreal bird species over four decades

The changing climate is causing shifts in the timing of species activity. We use data on over 820,000 nesting records to quantify changes in the beginning, end, and duration of breeding among boreal birds. In addition to a general advance of breeding, we find an overall contraction of the breeding period. This pattern was most common among resident and short-distance migrating species. Overall, we detect a shift in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction, involving the start and end of reproduction and how concentrated the breeding period is. From a methodological perspective, our study illustrates that a focus on quantifying phenological advances alone may mask important patterns of phenology change across the season.

Breeding timed to match optimal resource abundance is vital for the successful reproduction of species, and breeding is therefore sensitive to environmental cues. As the timing of breeding shifts with a changing climate, this may not only affect the onset of breeding but also its termination, and thus the length of the breeding period. We use an extensive dataset of over 820K nesting records of 73 bird species across the boreal region in Finland to probe for changes in the beginning, end, and duration of the breeding period over four decades (1975 to 2017). We uncover a general advance of breeding with a strong phylogenetic signal but no systematic variation over space. Additionally, 31% of species contracted their breeding period in at least one bioclimatic zone, as the end of the breeding period advanced more than the beginning. We did not detect a statistical difference in phenological responses of species with combinations of different migratory strategy or number of broods. Nonetheless, we find systematic differences in species responses, as the contraction in the breeding period was found almost exclusively in resident and short-distance migrating species, which generally breed early in the season. Overall, changes in the timing and duration of reproduction may potentially lead to more broods co-occurring in the early breeding season—a critical time for species’ reproductive success. Our findings highlight the importance of quantifying phenological change across species and over the entire season to reveal shifts in the community-level distribution of bird reproduction.

Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change-which will make most springs relatively "early"-could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change

Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~ 3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species' flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species' cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species' phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.

Identification of suites of traits that explains drought resistance and phenological patterns of plants in a semi-arid grassland community

Grassland ecosystems are comprised of plants that occupy a wide array of phenological niches and vary considerably in their ability to resist the stress of seasonal soil-water deficits. Yet, the link between plant drought resistance and phenology remains unclear in perennial grassland ecosystems. To evaluate the role of soil water availability and plant drought tolerance in driving phenology, we measured leaf hydraulic conductance (K_sat), resistance to hydraulic failure (P₅₀), leaf gas exchange, plant and soil water stable isotope ratios (δ¹⁸O), and several phenology metrics on ten perennial herbaceous species in mixed-grass prairie. The interaction between P₅₀ and δ¹⁸O of xylem water explained 67% of differences in phenology, with lower P₅₀ values associated with later season activity, but only among shallow-rooted species. In addition, stomatal control and high water-use efficiency also contributed to the late flowering and late senescence strategies of plants that had low P₅₀ values and relied upon shallow soil water. Alternatively, plants with deeper roots did not possess drought-tolerant leaves, but had high hydraulic efficiency, contributing to their ability to efficiently move water longer distances while maintaining leaf water potential at relatively high values. The suites of traits that characterize these contrasting strategies provide a mechanistic link between phenology and plant-water relations; thus, these traits could help predict grassland community responses to changes in water availability, both temporally and vertically within the soil profile.

Reproductive phenology as a dimension of the phenotypic space in 139 plant species from the Mediterranean

Phenology, the study of seasonal timing of events in nature, plays a key role in the matching between organisms and their environment. Yet, it has been poorly integrated in trait-based descriptions of the plant phenotype. Here, we focus on three phases of reproductive phenology - time of flowering, time of seed dispersal and duration of seed maturation - to test how these traits relate to other recognized dimensions of plant functioning. Traits describing reproductive phenology, together with reproductive plant height, seed mass, area of a leaf, and traits involved in leaf economics, were compiled for 139 species growing under Mediterranean climate conditions. Across all species, flowering time was positively related to reproductive height, while the duration of seed maturation was related to leaf economics. Relationships differed among growth forms, however: flowering time and reproductive height were related both in annuals and in herbaceous perennials, whereas the duration of seed maturation was related to seed mass only in annuals; no correlations were found for woody species. Phenology relates to other dimensions of plant functioning in a complex manner, suggesting that it should be considered as an independent dimension in the context of plant strategies.

Divergent Responses of Community Reproductive and Vegetative Phenology to Warming and Cooling: Asymmetry Versus Symmetry

Few studies have focused on the response of plant community phenology to temperature change using manipulative experiments. A lack of understanding of whether responses of community reproductive and vegetative phenological sequences to warming and cooling are asymmetrical or symmetrical limits our capacity to predict responses under warming and cooling. A reciprocal transplant experiment was conducted for 3 years to evaluate response patterns of the temperature sensitivities of community phenological sequences to warming (transferred downward) and cooling (transferred upward) along four elevations on the Tibetan Plateau. We found that the temperature sensitivities of flowering stages had asymmetric responses to warming and cooling, whereas symmetric responses to warming and cooling were observed for the vegetative phenological sequences. Our findings showed that coverage changes of flowering functional groups (FFGs; i.e., early-spring FFG, mid-summer FFG, and late-autumn FFG) and their compensation effects combined with required accumulated soil temperatureto codetermined the asymmetric and symmetric responses of community phenological sequences to warming and cooling. These results suggest that coverage change in FFGs on warming and cooling processes can be a primary driver of community phenological variation and may lead to inaccurate phenlogical estimation at large scale, such as based on remote sensing.

Differences in root phenology and water depletion by an invasive grass explains persistence in a Mediterranean ecosystem

PREMISE

Flexible phenological responses of invasive plants under climate change may increase their ability to establish and persist. A key aspect of plant phenology is the timing of root production, how it coincides with canopy development and subsequent water-use. The timing of these events within species and across communities could influence the invasion process. We examined above- and belowground phenology of two species in southern California, the native shrub, Adenostoma fasciculatum, and the invasive perennial grass, Ehrharta calycina to investigate relative differences in phenology and water use.

METHODS

We used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to track whole-canopy activity across the landscape and sap flux sensors on individual chaparral shrubs to assess differences in aboveground phenology of both species. To determine differences in belowground activity, we used soil moisture sensors, minirhizotron imagery, and stable isotopes.

RESULTS

The invasive grass depleted soil moisture earlier in the spring and produced longer roots at multiple depths earlier in the growing season than the native shrub. However, Adenostoma fasciculatum produced longer roots in the top 10 cm of soil profile in May. Aboveground activity of the two species peaked at the same time.

CONCLUSIONS

The fact that Ehrharta calycina possessed longer roots earlier in the season suggests that invasive plants may gain a competitive edge over native plants through early activity, while also depleting soil moisture earlier in the season. Depletion of soil moisture earlier by E. calycina suggests that invasive grasses could accelerate the onset of the summer drought in chaparral systems, assuring their persistence following invasion.

Does phenology play a role in the feedbacks underlying shrub encroachment?

Shrub encroachment has emerged as a global phenomenon over the past century. Multiple drivers have been put forward to explain the increased shrub dominance in various ecosystems around the world. However, the potential role of phenology in regulating shrub encroachment is not well understood. We address this issue using 3-year continuous monitoring of the phenology of coexisting shrubs and grasses combined with observations of ecohydrological processes (water uptake) and soil conditions (root zone soil moisture, soil texture, and soil temperature) at four study sites in Inner Mongolia, China, with shrub coverage of Caragana microphylla ranging from 0%, to 6.8%, 26.8% and 34.2%. Along such an encroachment gradient, shrubs exhibited progressively earlier onsets and later ends of the growing season, with an overall extension in growing season length by 15 days to 22 days in the later stages of shrub encroachment. Conversely, the coexisting grasses showed earlier occurrences both in spring and autumn phenological phases, which resulted in a phenological gap between shrubs and grasses. Thus, a positive feedback could exist between these phenological changes and shrub encroachment. In shrub patches, soils were wetter, with finer texture, and with more suitable temperatures for plant survival and development, which favored the lengthening of growing season of shrubs. The longer growing seasons are associated with longer periods of water use and photosynthesis for shrubs, and better opportunities for water uptake, with the overall effect of facilitating shrub growth and further expansion.

A decade of flowering phenology of the keystone saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea)

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Phenology is the study of biological life cycle events, such as flowering and migration. Climate patterns can alter these life history events, having ecosystem-wide ramifications. For example, warmer springs are associated with earlier leaf-out for many species, impacting species interactions and growing-season carbon dynamics. While phenological research has been conducted extensively in temperate regions, relatively little is known about the phenological responses in arid and semi-arid regions.

METHODS

In this study we looked at the flowering phenology of a keystone species in the Sonoran Desert, the saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea). The timing and abundance of flowering was observed on 151 individuals for 10 years at a site near Tucson, Arizona, USA. Using six phenological traits, we explored the relationship between saguaro size and flowering and the climatic drivers of flowering.

KEY RESULTS

Our analyses demonstrated how the calculation of phenological traits at the individual versus the population level can yield differing responses to climate variability, suggesting that not all studies examining the same trait (e.g., first day of bloom) are directly comparable. We found that larger cacti began flowering earlier, flowered for longer, and produced more flowers. Warmer temperatures were correlated with advanced onset and higher bloom yields, while increased precipitation appeared to delay onset and reduce bloom yields.

CONCLUSIONS

Given that climate models predict that the Southwestern USA will become increasingly warmer with more variable precipitation, saguaros may begin flowering earlier in the season and flower more intensely, which could impact pollen availability and population dynamics.

Phenological sequences: how early-season events define those that follow

PREMISE OF THE STUDY

Plant phenology is a critical trait, as the timings of phenophases such as budburst, leafout, flowering, and fruiting, are important to plant fitness. Despite much study about when individual phenophases occur and how they may shift with climate change, little is known about how multiple phenophases relate to one another across an entire growing season. We test the extent to which early phenological stages constrain later ones, throughout a growing season, across 25 angiosperm tree species.

METHODS

We observed phenology (budburst, leafout, flowering, fruiting, and senescence) of 118 individual trees across 25 species, from April through December 2015.

KEY RESULTS

We found that early phenological events weakly constrain most later events, with the strongest constraints seen between consecutive stages. In contrast, interphase duration was a much stronger predictor of phenology, especially for reproductive events, suggesting that the development time of flowers and fruits may constrain the phenology of these events.

CONCLUSIONS

Much of the variation in later phenological events can be explained by the timing of earlier events and by interphase durations. This highlights that a shift in one phenophase may often have cascading effects on later phases. Accurate forecasts of climate change impacts should therefore include multiple phenophases within and across years.

Rapid alignment of functional trait variation with locality across the invaded range of Sahara mustard (Brassica tournefortii)

PREMISE OF STUDY

Mechanisms by which invasive species succeed across multiple novel environmental contexts are poorly understood. Functional traits show promise for identifying such mechanisms, yet we lack knowledge of which functional traits are critical for success and how they vary across invaded ranges and with environmental features. We evaluated the widespread recent invasion of Sahara mustard (Brassica tournefortii) in the southwestern United States to understand the extent of functional trait variation across the invaded range and how such variation is related to spatial and climatic gradients.

METHODS

We used a common garden approach, growing two generations of plants in controlled conditions sourced from 10 locations across the invaded range. We measured variation within and among populations in phenological, morphological, and physiological traits, as well as performance.

KEY RESULTS

We found nine key traits that varied among populations. These traits were related to phenology and early growth strategies, such as the timing of germination and flowering, as well as relative allocation of biomass to reproduction and individual seed mass. Trait variation was related most strongly to variation in winter precipitation patterns across localities, though variations in temperature and latitude also had significant contributions.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results identify key functional traits of this invasive species that showed significant variation among introduced populations across a broad geographic and climatic range. Further, trait variation among populations was strongly related to key climatic variables, which suggests that population divergence in these traits may explain the successful colonization of Sahara mustard across its invaded US range.

Genetic adaptation as a biological buffer against climate change: Potential and limitations

Climate change profoundly impacts ecosystems and their biota, resulting in range shifts, novel interactions, food web alterations, changed intensities of host-parasite interactions, and extinctions. An increasing number of studies have documented evolutionary changes in traits such as phenology and thermal tolerance. In this opinion paper, we argue that, while evolutionary responses have the potential to provide a buffer against extinctions or range shifts, a number of constraints and complexities blur this simple prediction. First, there are limits to evolutionary potential both in terms of genetic variation and demographic effects, and these limits differ strongly among taxa and populations. Second, there can be costs associated with genetic adaptation, such as a reduced evolutionary potential towards other (human-induced) environmental stressors or direct fitness costs due to tradeoffs. Third, the differential capacity of taxa to genetically respond to climate change results in novel interactions because different organism groups respond to a different degree with local compared to regional (dispersal and range shift) responses. These complexities result in additional changes in the selection pressures on populations. We conclude that evolution can provide an initial buffer against climate change for some taxa and populations but does not guarantee their survival. It does not necessarily result in reduced extinction risks across the range of taxa in a region or continent. Yet, considering evolution is crucial, as it is likely to strongly change how biota will respond to climate change and will impact which taxa will be the winners or losers at the local, metacommunity and regional scales.