Cancer prevalence estimates based on tumour registry data in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program

Bench-to-bedside imaging in brain metastases: a road to precision oncology

Radiology has seen tremendous evolution in the last few decades. At the same time, oncology has made great strides in diagnosing and treating cancer. Distant metastases of neoplasms are being encountered more often in light of longer patient survival due to better therapeutic strategies and diagnostic methods. Brain metastasis (BM) is a dismal manifestation of systemic cancer. In the present scenario, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT) and positron emission tomography (PET) are playing a big role in providing molecular information about cancer. Lately, molecular imaging has emerged as a stirring arena of dynamic imaging techniques that have enabled clinicians and scientists to noninvasively visualize and understand biological processes at the cellular and molecular levels. This knowledge has impacted etiopathogenesis, detection, personalized treatment, drug development, and our understanding of carcinogenesis. This article offers insight into the molecular biology underlying brain metastasis, its pathogenesis, imaging protocols, and algorithms. It also discusses disease-specific molecular imaging features, focusing on common tumors that spread to the brain, such as lung, breast, colorectal cancer, melanoma, and renal cell carcinoma. Additionally, it covers various targeted treatment options, criteria for assessing treatment response, and the role of artificial intelligence in diagnosing, managing, and predicting prognosis for patients with brain metastases.

Complete cancer prevalence in Europe in 2020 by disease duration and country (EUROCARE-6): a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Cancer survivors-people living with and beyond cancer-are a growing population with different health needs depending on prognosis and time since diagnosis. Despite being increasingly necessary, complete information on cancer prevalence is not systematically available in all European countries. We aimed to fill this gap by analysing population-based cancer registry data from the EUROCARE-6 study.

METHODS

In this population-based study, using incidence and follow-up data up to Jan 1, 2013, from 61 cancer registries, complete and limited-duration prevalence by cancer type, sex, and age were estimated for 29 European countries and the 27 countries in the EU (EU27; represented by 22 member states that contributed registry data) using the completeness index method. We focused on 32 malignant cancers defined according to the third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology, and only the first primary tumour was considered when estimating the prevalence. Prevalence measures are expressed in terms of absolute number of prevalent cases, crude prevalence proportion (reported as percentage or cases per 100 000 resident people), and age-standardised prevalence proportion based on the European Standard Population 2013. We made projections of cancer prevalence proportions up to Jan 1, 2020, using linear regression.

FINDINGS

In 2020, 23 711 thousand (95% CI 23 565-23 857) people (5·0% of the population) were estimated to be alive after a cancer diagnosis in Europe, and 22 347 thousand (95% CI 22 210-22 483) in EU27. Cancer survivors were more frequently female (12 818 thousand [95% CI 12 720-12 917]) than male (10 892 thousand [10 785-11 000]). The five leading tumours in female survivors were breast cancer, colorectal cancer, corpus uterine cancer, skin melanoma, and thyroid cancer (crude prevalence proportion from 2270 [95%CI 2248-2292] per 100 000 to 301 [297-305] per 100 000). Prostate cancer, colorectal cancer, urinary bladder cancer, skin melanoma, and kidney cancer were the most common tumours in male survivors (from 1714 [95% CI 1686-1741] per 100 000 to 255 [249-260] per 100 000). The differences in prevalence between countries were large (from 2 to 10 times depending on cancer type), in line with the demographic structure, incidence, and survival patterns. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of prevalent cases increased by 3·5% per year (41% overall), partly due to an ageing population. In 2020, 14 850 thousand (95% CI 14 681-15 018) people were estimated to be alive more than 5 years after diagnosis and 9099 thousand (8909-9288) people were estimated to be alive more than 10 years after diagnosis, representing an increasing proportion of the cancer survivor population.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings are useful at the country level in Europe to support evidence-based policies to improve the quality of life, care, and rehabilitation of patients with cancer throughout the disease pathway. Future work includes estimating time to cure by stage at diagnosis in prevalent cases.

FUNDING

European Commission.

New findings in prognostic factor assessment for adenocarcinoma of transverse colon: a comparison study between competing-risk and COX regression analysis

Purpose

Competing-risk analysis was used to accurately assess prognostic factors for cancer-specific death in patients with adenocarcinoma of transverse colon (ATC), and the results were compared with those from a conventional Cox regression analysis.

Materials and Methods

Patients diagnosed with ATC between 2000 and 2019 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The crude mortality rates of patients with ATC were calculated and their differences were tested using the Gray's test, respectively. In performing multivariate analysis, the Cox regression model and the subdistribution hazard function (SD) in competing risk analysis were utilized, respectively.

Results

This study included 21,477 eligible patients. The SD model indicated that age, etc. are actual independent prognostic factors. In contrast to previous recognition, the results of the Cox regression showed false-positives for sex and Carcinoembryonic antigen, and underestimated point-estimates in the stage and American Joint Committee on Cancer stage due to competing events. A detailed comparison of treatment revealed that the larger surgical scopes were prognostic risk factors compared with the smaller scope of local tumor excision, partial colectomy, or segmental resection. Patients treated with external proton beam radiotherapy had an increased risk compared with those with no radiotherapy and internal radiotherapy.

Conclusions

After comparing the results of the two methods and mitigating the significant bias introduced by Cox regression, we found independent factors that really affect the prognosis of ATC. On the other hand, in terms of ATC, a larger surgical scope and external proton beam radiotherapy may not improve the long-term survival of patients. Therefore, when faced with ATC patients, these differences should be noted and treated differently from common colorectal cancer patients. Thus, clinicians are able to give more targeted treatment plans and prognostic assessments.

Projecting cancer prevalence by phase of care: a methodological approach for health service planning

Background

In most developed countries, the number of cancer survivors is expected to increase in the coming decades because of rising incidence and survival rates and an aging population. These patients are heterogeneous in terms of health service demands: from recently diagnosed patients requiring first-course therapy to patients with extensive care needs and severe disabilities to long-term survivors who only need minimal care. Therefore, in terms of providing healthcare planners and policymakers with useful indicators for addressing policies according to health service demands, it is worth supplying updated measures of prevalence for groups of patients based on the level of care they require. The aim of this paper is to illustrate a new method for estimating short-term projections of cancer prevalence by phase of care that applies to areas covered by cancer registration.

Methods

The proposed method combines linear regression models to project limited duration prevalence derived from cancer registry data and a session of the freely available software COMPREV to estimate the projected complete prevalence into three distinct clinically relevant phases of care: initial, continuing, and final. The method is illustrated and validated using data from the Veneto region in Italy for breast, colorectal, and lung cancers.

Results

Prevalence is expected to increase in 2015-2026 for all considered cancer sites and sexes, with average annual variations spanning from 2.6% for women with lung cancer to 0.5% for men with colorectal cancer. The only exception is lung cancer prevalence in men, which shows an average annual decrease of 1.9%. The majority of patients are in the continuing phase of care, followed by the initial and final phases, except for lung cancer, where the final phase of care prevails over the initial one.

Discussion

The paper proposes a method for estimating (short-term) future cancer healthcare needs that is based on user-friendly and freely available software and linear regression models. Validation results confirm the applicability of our method to the most frequent cancer types, provided that cancer registry data with at least 15 years of registration are available. Evidence from this method is addressed to policymakers for planning future cancer care, thus improving the cancer survivorship experience for patients and caregivers.

Complete prevalence and indicators of cancer cure: enhanced methods and validation in Italian population-based cancer registries

Objectives

To describe the procedures to derive complete prevalence and several indicators of cancer cure from population-based cancer registries.

Materials and methods

Cancer registry data (47% of the Italian population) were used to calculate limited duration prevalence for 62 cancer types by sex and registry. The incidence and survival models, needed to calculate the completeness index (R) and complete prevalence, were evaluated by likelihood ratio tests and by visual comparison. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore the effect on the complete prevalence of using different R indexes. Mixture cure models were used to estimate net survival (NS); life expectancy of fatal (LEF) cases; cure fraction (CF); time to cure (TTC); cure prevalence, prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer; and already cured patients, those living longer than TTC at a specific point in time. CF was also compared with long-term NS since, for patients diagnosed after a certain age, CF (representing asymptotical values of NS) is reached far beyond the patient's life expectancy.

Results

For the most frequent cancer types, the Weibull survival model stratified by sex and age showed a very good fit with observed survival. For men diagnosed with any cancer type at age 65-74 years, CF was 41%, while the NS was 49% until age 100 and 50% until age 90. In women, similar differences emerged for patients with any cancer type or with breast cancer. Among patients alive in 2018 with colorectal cancer at age 55-64 years, 48% were already cured (had reached their specific TTC), while the cure prevalence (lifelong probability to be cured from cancer) was 89%. Cure prevalence became 97.5% (2.5% will die because of their neoplasm) for patients alive >5 years after diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study represents an addition to the current knowledge on the topic providing a detailed description of available indicators of prevalence and cancer cure, highlighting the links among them, and illustrating their interpretation. Indicators may be relevant for patients and clinical practice; they are unambiguously defined, measurable, and reproducible in different countries where population-based cancer registries are active.

Estimating the Number of Men Living with Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States

BACKGROUND

Metastatic prostate cancer (MPC) includes metastases detected at diagnosis (de novo) and those occurring after diagnosis with early-stage disease (recurrent). Cancer registries collect data only on de novo MPC, providing a partial picture of the burden of MPC. We use cancer registry data to estimate the number of men living with MPC in the United States including both de novo and recurrent cases.

METHODS

We apply a back-calculation method to estimate MPC incidence and prevalence from U.S. prostate cancer mortality and de novo MPC relative survival for cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2017 in 18 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registries. We hold overall prostate cancer mortality and MPC survival constant for future prevalence projections.

RESULTS

On January 1, 2018, we estimated 120,400 U.S. men living with MPC (45% de novo, 55% recurrent). The age-adjusted prevalence in 2018 for Black men was over double that of White men (137.1 vs. 62.2 per 100,000 men). By 2030, 192,500 men are expected to be living with MPC, with the increase being driven by population growth projections.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of men living with MPC in the United States exceeds 100,000 and represents a small fraction of the >3 million men living with a prior diagnosis of prostate cancer.

IMPACT

Relatively similar fractions of de novo and recurrent MPC among prevalent cases highlight opportunities for management of localized disease in reducing the MPC burden. Changes in diagnostic technologies could lead to greater growth in MPC cases in the United States than projected. See related commentary by Stopsack et al., p. 585.

Estimating complete cancer prevalence in Europe: validity of alternative vs standard completeness indexes

Introduction

Comparable indicators on complete cancer prevalence are increasingly needed in Europe to support survivorship care planning. Direct measures can be biased by limited registration time and estimates are needed to recover long term survivors. The completeness index method, based on incidence and survival modelling, is the standard most validated approach.

Methods

Within this framework, we consider two alternative approaches that do not require any direct modelling activity: i) empirical indices derived from long established European registries; ii) pre-calculated indices derived from US-SEER cancer registries. Relying on the EUROCARE-6 study dataset we compare standard vs alternative complete prevalence estimates using data from 62 registries in 27 countries by sex, cancer type and registration time.

Results

For tumours mostly diagnosed in the elderly the empirical estimates differ little from standard estimates (on average less than 5% after 10-15 years of registration), especially for low prognosis cancers. For early-onset cancers (bone, brain, cervix uteri, testis, Hodgkin disease, soft tissues) the empirical method may produce substantial underestimations of complete prevalence (up to 20%) even when based on 35-year observations. SEER estimates are comparable to the standard ones for most cancers, including many early-onset tumours, even when derived from short time series (10-15 years). Longer observations are however needed when cancer-specific incidence and prognosis differ remarkably between US and European populations (endometrium, thyroid or stomach).

Discussion

These results may facilitate the dissemination of complete prevalence estimates across Europe and help bridge the current information gaps.

Cancer prevalence by phase of care: an indicator for assessing health service needs

INTRODUCTION

Cancer prevalence (people alive on a certain date in a population who previously had a cancer diagnosis) is expected to increase in the United States and Europe due to improvements in survival and population aging. Examination of prevalence by phase of care allows us to identify subgroups of patients according to their care trajectories, thus allowing us to improve health care planning, resource allocation, and calculation of costs.

METHODS

A new method to estimate prevalence by phase of care using grouped data is illustrated. Prevalence is divided into 3 mutually exclusive phases: initial, continuing, and end-of-life. An application to US and Italian data is applied to prevalent cases diagnosed with colon-rectum, stomach, lung, or breast cancer.

RESULTS

The distribution of phase of care prevalence estimated by cancer type and sex and results from the two datasets are very similar. Most survivors are in the continuing phase; the end-of-life phase is larger for cancers with worse prognosis. All phases prevalence is generally higher in the Italian than in the US dataset, except for lung cancer in women, where prevalence proportion in the Italian dataset is 30% lower than in the United States.

DISCUSSION

Incidence, survival, and population age structure are the main determinants of prevalence and they can affect differences in all phases of prevalence, as well as in discrete phases. Incidence is the most influential determinant. Ours is the first study that compares prevalence by phase of care between two populations in Italy and the United States. Despite great differences in health care management in the two countries, we found extremely similar distribution of survivors by phase of care for most cancer sites under study.

Antiproliferative Systemic Therapies for Metastatic Small Bowel Neuroendocrine Tumours

OPINION STATEMENT

Neuroendocrine neoplasms (NENs) are a heterogeneous group of malignancies with rising incidence and prevalence. Outcome and therapy of small bowel neuroendocrine tumours (SBNETs) is variable, depending on the grade, differentiation, tumour burden, as well as the site of the tumour origin. Because of this, multidisciplinary approach is essential. Large randomized clinical trials, with somatostatin analogues (PROMID, CLARINET) or with peptide receptor radionuclide therapy (PRRT) with 177-lutetium (NETTER-1 trial) as well as the mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitor (mTOR) everolimus (RADIANT trials), represent milestones for the medical management of unresectable grade 1 and 2 SBNETS over the last decade. Novel therapies, such as tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI), are on the cutting edge. However, multiple unsolved questions remain. This review provides a comprehensive review of the main systemic therapeutic options for advanced SBNETs and discusses the latest guideline recommendations for palliative treatment.

Extent of resection, molecular signature, and survival in 1p19q-codeleted gliomas

OBJECTIVE

Genomic analysis in neurooncology has underscored the importance of understanding the patterns of survival in different molecular subtypes within gliomas and their responses to treatment. In particular, diffuse gliomas are now principally characterized by their mutation status (IDH1 and 1p/19q codeletion), yet there remains a paucity of information regarding the prognostic value of molecular markers and extent of resection (EOR) on survival. Furthermore, given the modern emphasis on molecular rather than histological diagnosis, it is important to examine the effect of maximal resection on survival in all gliomas with 1p/q19 codeletions, as these will now be classified as oligodendrogliomas under the new WHO guidelines. The objectives of the present study were twofold: 1) to assess the association between EOR and survival for patients with oligodendrogliomas in the National Cancer Database (NCDB), which includes information on mutation status, and 2) to demonstrate the same effect for all patients with 1p/19q codeleted gliomas in the NCDB.

METHODS

The NCDB was queried for all cases of oligodendroglioma between 2004 and 2014, with follow-up dates through 2016. The authors found 2514 cases of histologically confirmed oligodendrogliomas for the final analysis of the effect of EOR on survival. Upon further query, 1067 1p/19q-codeleted tumors were identified in the NCDB. Patients who received subtotal resection (STR) or gross-total resection (GTR) were compared to those who received no tumor debulking surgery. Univariable and multivariable analyses of both overall survival and cause-specific survival were performed.

RESULTS

EOR was associated with increased overall survival for both histologically confirmed oligodendrogliomas and all 1p/19q-codeleted-defined tumors (p < 0.001 and p = 0.002, respectively). Tumor grade, location, and size covaried predictably with EOR. When evaluating tumors by each classification system for predictors of overall survival, facility setting, age, comorbidity index, grade, location, chemotherapy, and radiation therapy were all shown to be significantly associated with overall survival. STR and GTR were independent predictors of improved survival in historically classified oligodendrogliomas (HR 0.83, p = 0.18; HR 0.69, p = 0.01, respectively) and in 1p/19q-codeleted tumors (HR 0.49, p < 0.01; HR 0.43, p < 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

By using the NCDB, the authors have demonstrated a side-by-side comparison of the survival benefits of greater EOR in 1p/19q-codeleted gliomas.

Brachytherapy vs external beam therapy among NSCLC patients undergoing limited surgical resection

PURPOSE

To compare brachytherapy to external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) with respect to overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) among NSCLC patients undergoing limited surgical resection.

METHODS

All cases of T1-4 N0 M0 NSCLC undergoing limited resection and either brachytherapy or EBRT diagnosed between 2004 and 2014 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Chi-square test and Fisher's exact analysis were used to analyze categorical variables while Student's t-test was used to analyze continuous variables. Univariate analysis to assess for differences in survival with respect to covariates was performed with the log-rank test. Multivariable analysis was performed with Cox proportional hazards regression models among the entire cohort and after sub-stratification by T stage.

RESULTS

Among 543 patients, 471 underwent EBRT and 72 underwent brachytherapy. Brachytherapy demonstrated improved OS and DSS on univariate analysis as compared to EBRT (p < 0.05). Cox regression also demonstrated improved OS and DSS with brachytherapy (HR 0.604; 95% CI [0.380; 0.961] and HR 0.524; 95% CI [0.303; 0.908], respectively). Sub-cohort analysis demonstrated significant improvement in survival only among patients with T1 disease with similar survival between brachytherapy and EBRT among higher stage disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients undergoing brachytherapy for T1-T4, N0, M0 NSCLC demonstrated at least similar survival as compared to those undergoing EBRT among patients undergoing limited resection. Improved survival was demonstrated among patients with T1 disease.

A modified Prevalence Incidence Analysis Model method may improve disease prevalence prediction

OBJECTIVES

The Prevalence Incidence Analysis Model method is used for predicting disease prevalence, using past data on incidence and relative survival. Our objective was to propose and evaluate a modified approach for choosing the Prevalence Incidence Analysis Model.

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

Instead of the standard approach using the likelihood ratio statistic, we find the model that predicts most successfully the prevalence in the last available Y years using data up to but not including those Y years and then use that model to predict future prevalence another Y years ahead using all the data. We also make an "alignment" adjustment using the last known prevalence level. We evaluate the relative performance of the modified and standard methods using data on cancer from Israel in 1983-2013.

RESULTS

In this example, the modified approach gave as good or better predictions than the standard. Using the modified approach, we forecast cancer prevalence in Israel for 2014-2024 to increase at a gradually accelerating rate from the current 10,000 per year to 12,000 per year by 2020, reaching a total of 380,000 by 2024.

CONCLUSION

The modified approach may offer improved forecasting, but further methodological work on forecasting cancer prevalence is needed.

The effect of post mastectomy radiation therapy on survival in breast cancer patients with N1mic disease

Background

The role of post mastectomy radiation therapy (PMRT) in patients with N1mic breast cancer has not been well defined. A retrospective analysis was performed using the SEER database to evaluate the impact of PMRT on survival in patients with N1mic breast cancer.

Materials and methods

Women with T1-T2, N1mic, M0 breast cancer who had undergone mastectomy were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were calculated for all variables. Univariate analysis to assess for differences in survival with respect to covariates was performed using the log rank test while multivariate analysis was performed with Cox proportional hazards regression. Sub-cohort analysis with propensity score matching was used to assess differences in survival among patients undergoing PMRT vs no PMRT. Comparisons were considered statistically significant at P < 0.05.

Results

Among 5878 patients, 1202 (20%) underwent PMRT. On univariate analysis, PMRT was a significant predictor of CSS, but not OS. There was no difference in either OS or CSS between the PMRT vs no PMRT groups on multivariate Cox regression analysis and after propensity score matching.

Conclusions

Among patients with T1-T2, N1mic, M0 breast IDC from the SEER database, there was no difference in either OS or CSS among patients who underwent PMRT vs no PMRT. These results suggest that PMRT does not impact survival among breast cancer patients with N1mic disease. However, additional prospective studies with longer follow up are necessary for further evaluation.

•

In women with N1mic breast cancer, there was no difference in overall survival with or without adjuvant radiation.

•

CSS was worse among women undergoing adjuvant radiation on univariate analysis, but not on multivariate analysis.

•

After propensity score matching, no significant difference was observed in survival between women undergoing PMRT vs no PMRT.

Surgery plus adjuvant radiotherapy for primary central nervous system lymphoma

Objective: Recent studies of primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) have found a positive association between cytoreductive surgery and survival, challenging the traditional notion that surgery is not beneficial and potentially harmful. However, no studies have examined the potential added benefits of adjuvant treatment in the post-operative setting. Here, we investigate survival in PCNSL patients treated with surgery plus radiation therapy (RT).Methods: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results Program was used to identify patients with PCNSL from 1995-2013. We retrospectively analyzed the relationship between treatment, prognostic factors, and survival using case-control design. Treatment categories were compared to biopsy alone.Results: We identified 5417 cases. Median survival times for biopsy alone (n = 1824, 34%), biopsy + RT (n = 1460, 27%), surgery alone (n = 1222, 27%), and surgery + RT (n = 911, 17%) were 7, 8, 20, and 27 months, respectively. On multivariable analysis, surgery + RT was associated with improved survival over surgery alone (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.58 [95% confidence interval = 0.53-0.64] vs. HR = 0.71 [0.65-0.77]). Adjuvant RT was associated with improved survival, regardless of the extent of resection. HR's for subtotal resection, gross-total resection, subtotal resection + RT, and gross-total resection + RT were 0.77 (0.66-0.89), 0.66 (0.57-0.76), 0.62 (0.52-0.72), and 0.54 (0.46-0.63), respectively. Survival improved after adjuvant RT in patients under and over 60 years old. All findings were confirmed by multivariable analysis of cause-specific survival.Conclusion: Adjuvant RT was associated with improved survival in PCNSL patients who underwent surgery. Although these data are hypothesis-generating, additional information on neurotoxicity, dosing, and concurrent chemotherapy will be necessary to validate these findings. Cytoreductive surgery for PCNSL is common in the general population, and more studies are needed to assess optimal treatment in the post-operative setting.

Management of Congenital Melanocytic Nevus on Face Using Multiple Re-expansion Method: Aesthetic and Psychosocial Results

BACKGROUND

Congenital giant melanocytic nevus on the face is a challenging condition, especially in the pediatric population. It can produce significant cosmetic deformity with negative psychosocial effects in pediatric patients even after treatment. The objective of this study was to report aesthetic and psychosocial results in the management of congenital melanocytic nevus on the face using multiple reexpansion.

METHODS

Data of 6 patients with congenital melanocytic nevus on the face who underwent excision and multiple reexpansion at our center from September 2004 to August 2017, were retrospectively reviewed. To evaluate aesthetic outcomes, preoperative and final photographs of each patient were reviewed by 3 other plastic surgeons and 4 laypersons. For comparison, 6 other patients who were treated with conventional surgery during the same period were reviewed. After final reconstruction surgery, the authors surveyed patients' satisfaction via telephone.

RESULTS

Six patients were followed up for an average of 87.66 months (range, 55-123 months). The mean number of tissue expander insertions was 3.33 and the mean number of total expanders inserted was 4.83. Complication associated with expander exposure occurred in 1 patient during the fifth expansion. The average score of aesthetic outcome in the multiple reexpansion group was superior to that of the conventional group (2.60 versus 2.10, P = 0.03). During the telephone survey, patients did not rate their appearance as positive, although they were comparatively satisfied with the surgical procedure.

CONCLUSION

Considering the low rate of malignancy involving congenital melanocytic nevus in childhood, multiple reexpansion is an attractive option to obtain better results compared with other reconstructive methods.

Extent of resection and survival for oligodendroglioma: a U.S. population-based study

BACKGROUND

National guidelines recommend maximal safe resection of low-grade and high-grade oligodendrogliomas. However, there is no level 1 evidence to support these guidelines, and recent retrospective studies on the topic have yielded mixed results.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association between extent of resection (EOR) and survival for oligodendrogliomas in the general U.S.

POPULATION

METHODS

Cases diagnosed between 2004 and 2013 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results (SEER) Program and retrospectively analyzed for treatment, prognostic factors, and survival times. Cases that did not undergo tumor de-bulking surgery (e.g. no surgery or biopsy alone) were compared to subtotal resection (resection) and gross-total resection (GTR). The primary end-points were overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS). An external validation cohort with 1p/19q-codeleted tumors was creating using the TCGA and GSE16011 datasets.

RESULTS

3135 Cases were included in the final analysis. The 75% survival time (75ST) and 5-year survival rates were 47 months and 70.8%, respectively. Subtotal resection (STR, 75ST = 50 months) and GTR (75ST = 61 months) were associated with improved survival times compared to cases that did not undergo surgical debulking (75ST = 20 months, P < 0.001 for both), with reduced hazard ratios (HRs) after controlling for other factors (HR 0.81 [0.68-0.97] and HR 0.65 [0.54-0.79], respectively). GTR was associated with improved OS in both low-grade and anaplastic oligodendroglioma subgroups (HR 0.74 [0.58-0.95], HR 0.60 [0.44-0.82], respectively) while STR fell short of significance in the subgroup analysis. All findings were corroborated by multivariable analysis of CSS and externally validated in a cohort of patients with 1p19q-codeleted tumors.

CONCLUSION

Greater EOR is associated with improved survival in oligodendrogliomas. Our findings in this U.S. population-based cohort support national guidelines.

Prognosis and cure of long-term cancer survivors: A population-based estimation

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence of cure for some neoplasms has emerged in recent years. The study aimed to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure.

METHODS

Information on more than half a million cancer patients aged 15-74 years collected by population-based Italian cancer registries and mixture cure models were used to estimate the life expectancy of fatal tumors (LEFT), proportions of patients with similar death rates of the general population (cure fraction), and time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS) >90% or 95% (time to cure).

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2000, the median LEFT increased >1 year for breast (from 8.1 to 9.4 years) and prostate cancers (from 5.2 to 7.4 years). Median LEFT in 1990 was >5 years for testicular cancers (5.8) and Hodgkin lymphoma (6.3) below 45 years of age. In both sexes, it was ≤0.5 years for pancreatic cancers and NHL in 1990 and in 2000. The cure fraction showed a 10% increase between 1990 and 2000. It was 95% for thyroid cancer in women, 94% for testis, 75% for prostate, 67% for breast cancers, and <20% for liver, lung, and pancreatic cancers. Time to 5-year CRS >95% was <10 years for testis, thyroid, colon cancers, and melanoma. For breast and prostate cancers, the 5-year CRS >90% was reached in <10 years but a small excess remained for >15 years.

CONCLUSIONS

The study findings confirmed that several cancer types are curable. Became aware of the possibility of cancer cure has relevant clinical and social impacts.

The Impact of Epidemiological Factors and Treatment Interventions on Survival in Patients With Signet Ring Cell Carcinoma of the Pancreas

OBJECTIVES

Primary pancreatic signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) is a rare histologic variant of pancreatic carcinoma. A population-based analysis of pancreatic SRCC was performed to determine the predictive effects of epidemiological factors and treatment interventions on overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry was searched for pancreatic SRCC cases diagnosed between January 1, 1973 and December 31, 2013. Statistical analysis was performed using the Fisher exact test, χ(2) analysis, Kaplan-Meier method, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

The mean age among 497 patients was 66.6 years (SD, 11.9). Most patients were white (82.7%) and male (54.5%). The 1-, 2-, and 5-year OS rates were 17%, 9%, and 4%, respectively, while the corresponding 1-, 2-, and 5-year rates for DSS were 18%, 10%, and 5%, respectively. On univariable analysis; age, site, grade, stage, and treatment were predictive of OS and DSS (P<0.05). On multivariable analysis; radiation improved OS and DSS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.592 and 0.589, respectively), pancreatectomy improved OS and DSS (aHR, 0.360 and 0.355, respectively), and combination therapy improved OS and DSS (aHR, 0.295 and 0.286, respectively). Age, site, and stage were also independent predictors of OS and DSS. Subgroup analysis demonstrated treatment to be an independent predictor of OS and DSS in localized/regional disease, in distant disease, and in patients diagnosed between 2000 and 2013.

CONCLUSIONS

Age, site, stage, and treatment independently predict OS and DSS in pancreatic SRCC.

Spinal location is prognostic of survival for solitary-fibrous tumor/hemangiopericytoma of the central nervous system

BACKGROUND

Prior studies have highlighted infratentorial tumor location as a prognostic factor for solitary fibrous tumor (SFT) and hemangiopericytoma (HPC) of the central nervous system (CNS), and spinal location is considered a positive prognostic factor for other tumors of the CNS. While SFT/HPC of the CNS is known to frequently arise from the spinal meninges, there are no case series that report outcomes for spinally located CNS tumors, and their prognosis in relation to intracranial and other CNS-located tumors is unknown.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate outcomes for patients with SFT/HPC of the spinal meninges.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End-Results Program was used to identify patients with SFT/HPC within the CNS from 1993-2015. We retrospectively analyzed the relationship between tumor location (spinal vs. Brain and other CNS) and survival.

RESULTS

We identified 551 cases of CNS SFT/HPC, 64 (11.6%) of which were primary tumors of the spinal meninges. Spinal tumors were more likely than brain and other CNS tumors to be SFT vs. HPC (37.5 vs. 12%, p < 0.001), benign (42.2 vs. 20.3%, p < 0.001), and less than 5 cm (53.1 vs. 35.7%, p < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates for spinal and brain/other CNS tumors were 85 and 58%, respectively. Median survival time was significantly longer for spinal tumors (median survival not reached vs. 138 months, p = 0.03, HR = 0.41 [95% CI 0.18-0.94]). On multivariable analysis, spinal tumor location was associated with improved survival over tumors located in the brain and other CNS (HR = 0.36 [95% CI 0.15-0.89], p = 0.03).

CONCLUSION

Spinal tumor location is associated with improved survival in patients with SFT/HPC of the CNS. Larger institutional studies are necessary to characterize the relationship between tumor location and other relevant factors such as presentation and amenability to gross-total resection and adjuvant radiotherapy. Future studies exploring optimal management of spinally located tumors are also needed.

Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020

BACKGROUND

Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis.

METHODS

Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software.

RESULTS

In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis.

CONCLUSIONS

The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

Age and stage specific prevalence estimate of cancer from population based Cancer Registry using inhomogeneous Poisson process

A multi stage model is described for estimating the age and two stage specific prevalence of cancer. The disease evolution is considered as an inhomogeneous Poisson process in the Lexis diagram. Prevalences are estimated from the basic epidemiological measures (stage specific incidences and survivals). A piecewise constant hazard model is used to estimate the transition rates constructing a finite partition of age and, where it is the case, of duration. Moreover, variance calculations are described. An application to breast cancer in the Hérault (France) population is presented.

Estimating the variance of cancer prevalence from population-based registries

Cancer prevalence is the proportion of people in a population diagnosed with cancer in the past and still alive. One way to estimate prevalence is via population-based registries, where data on diagnosis and life status of all incidence cases occurring in the covered population are collected. In this paper, a method to estimate the complete prevalence and its variance from population-based registries is presented. In order to obtain unbiased estimates of the complete prevalence, its calculation can be thought as made by three steps. Step 1 counts the incidence cases diagnosed during the period of registration and still alive. Step 2 estimates the expected number of survivors among cases lost to follow-up. Step 3 estimates the complete prevalence by taking into account cases diagnosed before the start of registration. The combination of steps 1+2 is defined as the counting method, to estimate the limited duration prevalence; step 3 is the completeness index method, to estimate the complete prevalence. For early established registries, steps 1+2 are more important than step 3, because observation time is long enough to include all past diagnosed cases still alive in the prevalence data. For more recently established registries, step 3 is by far the most critical because a large part of prevalence might have been diagnosed before the period of registration (Corazziari I, Mariotto A, Capocaccia R. Correcting the completeness bias of observed prevalence. Tumori 1999; 85: 370-81). The work by Clegg LX, Gail MH, Feuer EJ. Estimating the variance of disease-prevalence estimates from population-based registries. Biometrics 2002; 55: 1137-44. considers the problem of the variability of the estimated prevalence up to step 2. To our knowledge, no other work has considered the variability induced by correcting for the unobserved cases diagnosed before the period of registration, crucial to estimate the prevalence in recent registries. An analytic approach is considered to calculate the variance of step 3. A unified expression for the variance of the prevalence allowing for steps 1 through 3 is obtained. Some applications to cancer data are presented.

Estimating the prevalence of hematological malignancies and precursor conditions using data from Haematological Malignancy Research Network (HMRN)

Objective

Well-established cancer registries that routinely link to death registrations can estimate prevalence directly by counting patients alive at a particular point in time (observed prevalence). Such direct methods can only provide prevalence for the years over which the registry has been operational. Time-defined estimates, including 5- and 10-year prevalence, may however underestimate the total cancer burden, and compared with other cancers, there is a lack of accurate information on the total prevalence of hematological malignancy subtypes. Accordingly, we aimed to estimate prevalence (observed and total prevalence) of hematological malignancies and precursor conditions by clinically meaningful subtypes using data from the UK’s specialist population-based register, the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org).

Methods

Observed and total prevalences were estimated from 15,810 new diagnoses of hematological malignancies from 2004 to 2011 and followed up to the 31 August 2011 (index data). Observed prevalence was calculated by the counting method, and a method based on modelling incidence and survival was used to estimate total prevalence. Estimates were made according to current disease classification for the HMRN region and for the UK.

Results

The overall observed and total prevalence rates were 281.9 and 548.8 per 100,000, respectively; the total number of observed and total prevalent cases in the UK was estimated as 165,841 and 327,818 cases, as expected variation existed by disease subtype reflecting the heterogeneity in underlying disease incidence, survival and age distribution of hematological cancers.

Conclusions

This study demonstrates the importance of estimating ‘total’ prevalence rather than ‘observed’ prevalence by current disease classification (ICD-O-3), particularly for subtypes that have a more indolent nature and for those that are curable. Importantly, these analyses demonstrate that relying on observed prevalence alone would result in a significant underestimation of the relative burden of some subtypes. While many of these cases may be considered cured and no longer being actively treated, people in this survivorship phase may have long-term medical needs and accordingly, it is important to provide accurate counts to allow for healthcare planning.

Significance of Tumor Stage in Sinonasal Undifferentiated Carcinoma Survival

Objective

To describe the incidence and determinants of survival of patients with sinonasal undifferentiated carcinoma (SNUC) from 1973 to 2011 using the SEER database (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results), with consideration of tumor stage based on the Kadish system.

Study Design

Retrospective database analysis.

Setting

Academic medical center.

Subjects and Methods

The SEER registry was utilized to calculate survival trends for 328 patients with SNUC between 1973 and 2011. Patient data were then analyzed with respect to histopathology, age, sex, race, subsite, modified Kadish stage, tumor size, and treatments rendered.

Results

The cohort was composed of 61.9% males with median age of 60 years. The median overall survival (OS) was 1.9 years. Most tumors presented in the nasal cavity, maxillary sinus, and ethmoid sinus (29.3%, 27.4%, 21%, respectively); 43.7% of patients received both surgical and radiation therapy. OS at 2, 5, and 10 years was 43%, 30%, and 25%, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, Kadish stage, and tumor size were associated with worse OS and disease-specific survival (DSS), while surgery and radiation therapy were associated with improved OS and DSS (all P < .05). On multivariate analysis, radiation therapy and lower Kadish stage were associated with improved OS and DSS, while younger age was additionally associated with improved OS (all P < .05).

Conclusion

SNUC is a rare but aggressive sinonasal malignancy. Tumor stage as determined by the Kadish system is associated with worse survival, with radiation therapy appearing to play a key role in therapeutic management.

The significantly lower risk of cervical cancer at and after the recommended age to begin and end screening compared to breast and colorectal cancer

OBJECTIVE

We compare risk of cervical, colorectal, and breast cancer (and two pre-cancers: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 2-3 and colorectal adenomas) at and after the recommended ages to begin and end screening in the United States.

METHODS

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used with Monte Carlo simulations to estimate risk at and after the ages to screen.

RESULTS

At the age to begin screening, absolute risk of breast and colorectal cancer was 381 and 53 times higher, respectively, than cervical cancer (0.0122, 95% CI: 0.0089-0.0162 and 0.0017, 95% CI: 0.0012-0.0023 vs. 3.2e(-5), 95% CI: 2.3e(-5)-4.3e(-5)). Risk of colorectal adenomas and breast cancer was 45 and 2.4 times higher than CIN 2-3 (0.2319, 95% CI: 0.1287-0.3624 and 0.0122, 95% CI: 0.0089-0.0017 vs. 0.0051, 95% CI: 0.0029-0.0081). After the age to end screening, breast and colorectal cancer risk was 17 and 11 times higher, respectively, than cervical cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of cervical cancer at and after the recommended ages for screening is significantly lower than that of breast and colorectal cancer. Differences may become more pronounced in the era of HPV vaccines. Comparison of risk between cancers provides a novel perspective to inform future guideline development.

Prevalence of molecular subtypes of invasive breast cancer: A retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Classification of breast cancers into different molecular subtypes using immunohistochemistry as a surrogate tool to DNA microarray technology has been identified. Aim of this study was to find the precise prevalence of molecular subtypes of invasive breast carcinoma using immunohistochemistry and to correlate it with histological and clinical prognostic factors.

METHODS

A descriptive study design wherein 56 breast carcinoma cases diagnosed between May 2012 and Apr 2014 were reviewed and molecular subtyped using relevant immunohistochemical markers. Age, histological type, tumor size, tumor grade, lymphovascular emboli (LVE), nodal status and basal marker expressions were analyzed for all cases. Correlations between molecular subtypes and clinico-pathological characteristics were evaluated statistically.

RESULTS

In our study group, average age of patients was 50.5 years and most of patients were diagnosed in stage II (54%). Luminal A subtype was most prevalent 34%, followed by Basal like/Triple negative subtype 25%. Luminal B and Her2/neu subtypes had same prevalence i.e. 18% each and Breast Tissue like/Unclassified subtype/Penta Negative subtype was 5%. All cases demonstrated positivity for the luminal cytokeratins 8/18. Histological grade and ER negative status showed strong correlations with basal markers.

CONCLUSION

On the basis of hormone receptor, Her2 neu, EGFR and CK 5/6 expressions, breast carcinoma cases were classified into five distinct molecular subtypes which show significant differences in regards to morphological features, prognostic markers and there by predicting possible clinical outcome.

Breast cancer in Morocco: a literature review

In Morocco, breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer in women and a major public health problem. Several Moroccan studies have focused on studying this disease, but more are needed, especially at the genetic and molecular levels. It is therefore interesting to establish the genetic and molecular profile of Moroccan patients with breast cancer. In this paper, we will highlight some pertinent hypotheses that may enhance breast cancer care in Moroccan patients. This review will give a precise description of breast cancer in Morocco and propose some new markers for detection and prediction of breast cancer prognosis.

Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

Original, population-based estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure in cancer patients are provided. More than a quarter of cancer patients in Italy have reached death rates similar to those of the general population. Nearly three quarters of them will not die as a result of cancer. These estimates are potentially helpful to health-care planners, clinicians, and patients.

Background

Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking.

Patients and methods

Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds.

Results

The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%.

Conclusions

A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.

The shifting paradigm in the management of giant congenital melanocytic nevi: review and clinical applications

SUMMARY

Congenital melanocytic nevi remain a subject of controversy with respect to risk of malignant transformation and recommended management. Recent studies indicate a lower malignant risk (0.7 to 2.9 percent) than had previously been estimated. Surgery has not been proven to reduce malignant risk or improve quality of life, and may result in undesirable aesthetic and functional outcomes. In this article, the authors review key controversial issues in the management of congenital melanocytic nevi and re-evaluate indications for surgical treatment. An updated review of controversial topics in the management of congenital melanocytic nevi is presented, and clinical applications are demonstrated through clinical cases. Updates regarding the risks and outcomes of congenital melanocytic nevi patients open a renewed debate with respect to the indications for surgery as well as the extent of surgery that may be suitable. Treatment should be tailored to achieve optimal aesthetic results whereby complete nevus excision is not the goal. As such, nonsurgical management and incomplete nevus excision should be integrated as legitimate parts of any treatment algorithm.

Determining disease prevalence from incidence and survival using simulation techniques

OBJECTIVES

We present a new method for determining prevalence estimates together with estimates of their precision, from incidence and survival data using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques. The algorithm also provides for the incidence process to be marked with the values of subject level covariates, facilitating calculation of the distribution of these variables in prevalent cases.

METHODS

Disease incidence is modelled as a marked stochastic process and simulations are made from this process. For each simulated incident case, the probability of remaining in the prevalent sub-population is calculated from bootstrapped survival curves. This algorithm is used to determine the distribution of prevalence estimates and of the ancillary data associated with the marks of the incidence process. This is then used to determine prevalence estimates and estimates of the precision of these estimates, together with estimates of the distribution of ancillary variables in the prevalent sub-population. This technique is illustrated by determining the prevalence of acute myeloid leukaemia from data held in the Haematological Malignancy Research Network (HMRN). In addition, the precision of these estimates is determined and the age distribution of prevalent cases diagnosed within twenty years of the prevalence index date is calculated.

CONCLUSION

Determining prevalence estimates by using Monte-Carlo simulation techniques provides a means of calculation more flexible that traditional techniques. In addition to automatically providing precision estimates for the prevalence estimates, the distribution of any measured subject level variables can be calculated for the prevalent sub-population. Temporal changes in incidence and in survival offer no difficulties for the method.

Methodological aspects of estimating rare cancer prevalence in Europe: the experience of the RARECARE project

This paper describes the usage and the performance evaluation of the completeness index method in the 'Surveillance of Rare Cancers in Europe project' (RARECARE) for estimating rare cancer prevalence in Europe. The 15-year prevalence at 1st January 2003 for 255 cancers is obtained from a pool of 22 RARECARE cancer registries (CRs). Incidence and survival models are applied to the RARECARE database to estimate the parameters from which the completeness indices are calculated. Complete prevalence is obtained adjusting the observed 15-year prevalence by the completeness index, to account for those cancer survivors diagnosed before the CR activity started. Main factors influencing the performance of the completeness index method for rare cancers are the same as for common cancers: age distribution of incidence and lethality of the cancer. For cancers occurring in the elderly, with low survival rates and consequently a restricted number of long-term survivors we obtained completeness indices higher than 0.9. Values lower than 0.7 correspond to those cancers with good prognosis and/or incidence more concentrated at the younger ages, indicating that 15 years of follow up are insufficient to detect all prevalent cases. Validation analysis shows that for a restricted subgroup of rare cancers with very low incidence and low survival, the completeness indices were not able to adequately correct the observed prevalence even considering a registration period of 20 years. On average, sensitivity analyses show a slight overestimation of complete prevalence for rare and common cancers whose increasing incidence is known in literature. RARECARE is the largest project on rare cancers conducted to date. Improving health care programs for cancer survivors is a public health priority and prevalence data which provides important information in this field should be regularly asked to Member States and included in the EU health statistics.

Fertility preservation in gynecological cancers

For cancers of reproductive system in women, fertility preservation is complex. Fertility is also affected by therapies, however prevention is possible. Radiotherapy affects gonads, uterus, and subsequent pregnancy outcomes in all ages. However, degree and damage depend on dose, irradiation field, and age at the time of exposure. Ovarian transposition is considered if ovarian involvement is unlikely. Gonadotoxic effects of chemotherapy are related to agent's type, cumulative doses, age, and ovarian reserve. Some agents are highly toxic. Rendering follicular development quiescent by suppression of gonadotropins does reduce the ovarian damage. Simple or radical trachelectomy can be used in early cervical cancer. Fertility saving surgery is possible only in early stage low grade epithelial cancers of the ovary, however, in germ cell tumors even in advanced stages it may be possible to preserve fertility. There are no standard recommendations for endometrial cancer. Embryo, oocyte, and ovarian tissue cryopreservation are possible. The human embryo is very resistant to damage. In view of these possibilities, it is advocated that attention to long term health and quality of life in gonadotoxic therapy must be incorporated into plans as early as possible.

Current knowledge and future direction of research on soy isoflavones as a therapeutic agents

Isoflavones, the most abundant phytoestrogens in Soy beans, are structurally similar to 17beta-estradiol. The antioxidant property of the soy isoflavones, namely, genistein and daidzein is well established in different experimental models and also in clinical studies. The compounds have been found effective in the management of diabetes by acting on peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors. It reduces the risk of coronary heart disease by reducing the level of low-density lipoprotein and triglycerides. Soy isoflavones have the potential in the treatment of osteoporosis to act on osteoclasts further to inhibit tyrosine kinase. Among the soy isoflavones, genistein is the potential compound found effective in the treatment of cancer by acting on androgen receptor further to inhibit tyrosine kinases. In this article, various aspects of the diverse biological activities of soy isoflavones and their potential clinical implications with mechanism of action, especially in the treatment and prevention of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancer, osteoporosis, neuroprotection, and also future area of research on soy isoflavones are reviewed and discussed.

Prevalence of molecular subtypes and prognosis of invasive breast cancer in north-east of Morocco: retrospective study

Background

Breast carcinoma is known as a heterogeneous disease because gene expression analyses identify several subtypes and the molecular profiles are prognostic and predictive for patients. Our aim, in this study, is to estimate the prevalence of breast cancer subtypes and to determine the relationship between clinico-pathological characteristics, overall survival (OS) and disease free survival (DFS) for patients coming from north-east of Morocco.

Methods

We reviewed 366 cases of breast cancer diagnosed between January 2007 to June 2010 at the Department of pathology. Age, size tumor, metastatic profile, node involvement profile, OS and DFS were analyzed on 181 patients. These last parameters were estimated by Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test to estimate outcome differences among subgroups.

Results

The average age was 45 years, our patients were diagnosed late (57% stage III, 17.5% stage IV) with a high average tumor size. Luminal A subtype was more prevalent (53.6%) associated with favorable clinic-pathological characteristics, followed by luminal B (16.4%), Her2-overexpressing (12.6%), basal-like (12.6%) and unclassified subtype (4.9%).

Survival analysis showed a significant difference between subtypes. The triple negative tumors were associated with poor prognosis (49% OS, 39% DFS), whereas the luminal A were associated with a better prognosis (88% OS, 59% DFS). The luminal B and the Her2-overexpressing subtypes were associated with an intermediate prognosis (77% and 75% OS, and 41% and 38% DFS respectively).

Conclusion

This study showed that molecular classification by immunohistochemistry was necessary for therapeutic decision and prognosis of breast carcinoma. The luminal A subtype was associated with favorable biological characteristics and a better prognosis than triple negative tumors that were associated with a poor prognosis and unfavorable clinic-pathological characteristics.

Global estimates of cancer prevalence for 27 sites in the adult population in 2008

Recent estimates of global cancer incidence and survival were used to update previous figures of limited duration prevalence to the year 2008. The number of patients with cancer diagnosed between 2004 and 2008 who were still alive at the end of 2008 in the adult population is described by world region, country and the human development index. The 5-year global cancer prevalence is estimated to be 28.8 million in 2008. Close to half of the prevalence burden is in areas of very high human development that comprise only one-sixth of the world's population. Breast cancer continues to be the most prevalent cancer in the vast majority of countries globally; cervix cancer is the most prevalent cancer in much of Sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia and prostate cancer dominates in North America, Oceania and Northern and Western Europe. Stomach cancer is the most prevalent cancer in Eastern Asia (including China); oral cancer ranks as the most prevalent cancer in Indian men and Kaposi sarcoma has the highest 5-year prevalence among men in 11 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The methods used to estimate point prevalence appears to give reasonable results at the global level. The figures highlight the need for long-term care targeted at managing patients with certain very frequently diagnosed cancer forms. To be of greater relevance to cancer planning, the estimation of other time-based measures of global prevalence is warranted.

Cancer prevalence in Italy: an analysis of geographic variability

PURPOSE

Statistics on cancer prevalence are scanty. The objectives of this study were to describe the cancer prevalence in Italy and to explore determinants of geographic heterogeneity.

METHODS

The study included data from 23 population-based cancer registries, including one-third of the Italian population. Five-year cancer prevalence was observed, and complete prevalence (i.e., all patients living after a cancer diagnosis) was estimated through sex-, age-, cancer site-, and observation period length-specific completeness indices by means of regression models.

RESULTS

In 2006, 3.8 % of men and 4.6 % of women in Italy were alive after a cancer diagnosis, with a 5-year prevalence of 1.9 % and 1.7 % in men and women, respectively. A relevant geographic variability emerged for all major cancer sites. When compared to national pooled estimates, crude cancer prevalence proportions were 10 % higher in the north and 30 % lower in the south of Italy. However, these variations were consistently reduced after age adjustment and, in both sexes, largely overlapped those of incidence rates, with correlations >0.90 between variations of prevalence and incidence for all cancer sites and areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Magnitude of the cancer prevalence and the geographic heterogeneity herein outlined in Italy will help in meeting the needs of specific population of survivor patients.

Improved population-based probability of developing cancer when direct estimates of the cancer-free population are available

Age-conditional probabilities of developing a first cancer represent the transition from being cancer-free to developing a first cancer. Natural inputs into their calculation are rates of first cancer per person-years alive and cancer-free. However these rates are not readily available because they require information on the cancer-free population. Instead rates of first cancer per person-years alive, calculated using as denominator the mid-year populations, available from census data, can be easily calculated from cancer registry data. Methods have been developed to estimate age-conditional probabilities of developing cancer based on these easily available rates per person-years alive that do not directly account for the cancer-free population. In the last few years models (Merrill et al., Int J Epidemiol 29(2):197-207, 2000; Mariotto et al., SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 2002; Clegg et al., Biometrics 58(3):684-688, 2002; Gigli et al., Stat Methods Med Res 15(3):235-253, 2006, and software (ComPrev:Complete Prevalence Software, Version 1.0, 2005) have been developed that allow estimation of cancer prevalence (DevCan: Probability of Developing or Dying of Cancer Software, Version 6.0, 2005). Estimates of population-based cancer prevalence allows for the estimation of the cancer-free population and consequently of rates per person-years alive and cancer-free. In this paper we present a method that directly estimates the age-conditional probabilities of developing a first cancer using rates per person-years alive and cancer-free obtained from prevalence estimates. We explore conditions when the previous and the new estimators give similar or different values using real data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program.

Should breast cancer survivors be excluded from, or invited to, organised mammography screening programmes?

BACKGROUND

The prevalence of breast cancer in developed countries has steadily risen over recent decades. Immediate and long-term health needs of patients, including preventive care and screening services, are receiving increasing attention. A question still unresolved is whether breast cancer survivors should receive mammographic surveillance in the clinical or screening setting and, thus, whether they should be excluded from, or invited to, organised mammography screening programmes. The objective of this article is to discuss the many contradictory aspects of this matter.

DISCUSSION

Problems with mammographic surveillance of breast cancer survivors include: weak evidence of a reduction in mortality; lack of evidence in favour of one setting or the other; lack of evidence-based guidelines for the frequency and duration of surveillance; disproportionate emphasis placed on the first few years post-treatment, probably dictated by surgical and oncological priorities; a variety of screening policies, as these women are permanently or temporarily or partially excluded from many - but not all - organised screening programmes worldwide; an even greater disparity in follow-up protocols used in the clinical setting; a paucity of data on compliance to mammographic surveillance in both settings; and a difficulty in coordinating the roles of health care providers. In the future, the use of mammography in breast cancer survivors will be influenced by the inclusion of women aged > 69 years in organised screening programmes and the implementation of multidisciplinary breast units, and will probably be investigated by research activities on individual risk assessment and risk-tailored screening. In the interim, current problems can be partially alleviated with some technical solutions in screening data recording, patient flows, and care coordination.

SUMMARY

Mammographic surveillance of breast cancer survivors is situated at the crossroads of numerous different specialist areas of breast cancer control and management. The solutions for current problems probably lie in some important modifications in the conventional screening procedure that are underway or under study. These developments appear to be directed towards a partial modification of the screening rationale, with an adaptation to meet the diversified breast care needs of women. The complexity of the matter constitutes a call to action for several entities to eliminate the barriers to effective research in this field.

Getting cancer prevalence right: using state cancer registry data to estimate cancer survivors

OBJECTIVE

Cancer incidence and mortality statistics provide limited insight regarding the cancer survivor population and its needs. Cancer prevalence statistics enumerate cancer survivors--those currently living with cancer. Commonly used limited-duration prevalence (LDP) methods yield biased estimates of the number of survivors. National estimates may not allow sufficient granularity to inform local survivorship programs. In this study, complete prevalence (CP) methods are applied to actual North Carolina Central Cancer Registry (NCCCR) data to generate better, more informative prevalence estimates than previous methods.

METHODS

Data included all incident cases for 1995-2007 from the NCCCR and US Census population data. SEER*Stat software was used to calculate 13-year LDP. ComPrev software was used to estimate CP for each cancer site, gender, and race combination.

RESULTS

CP methods estimated 362,810 survivors in North Carolina on January 1, 2008, 40% more than LDP estimates of 258,556, with substantial racial, regional, and gender differences in prevalence rankings of several cancers.

CONCLUSION

CP estimates are substantially higher than previous prevalence estimates. This study found previously unrecognized racial, regional, and gender differences. State and local programs may apply these methods using their own data to develop better, more detailed estimates to improve planning for their specific survivor populations' needs.

Prevalence of breast cancer in the city of Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil, between 1988 and 2002

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE

Studies have shown increased prevalence rates for breast cancer, relating to higher incidence, longer survival and breast cancer prevention programs among populations. The aim here was to analyze the annual prevalence of breast cancer in Goiânia over a 15-year period.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a cross-sectional study on women with breast cancer diagnosed in Goiânia, Goiás, Brazil, from 1988 to 2002.

METHODS

The breast cancer cases were identified in the database of the Population-Based Cancer Registry of Goiânia. The 15-year period was stratified into three five-year periods. The cases were followed up for five years, and the mortality database was used to exclude deaths. The population of the official census was used as the denominator for rate calculations.

RESULTS

The coefficient of breast cancer prevalence in Goiania was 22.87/100,000 in 1988 and 220.22/100,000 women in 2002. The analyses for periods showed that in the first period, the rate was 19.39/100,000 and that it was 44.79/100,000 in the last period. For the fifteen years analyzed, the prevalence rate for breast cancer was 127.24/100,000 women. The annual percentage change was 27.07 (P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, CI: 20.79-33.67) from 1988 to 1992 and 9.39 (P < 0.001; 95% CI: 8.52-10.25) from 1992 to 2002.

CONCLUSION

There was an increase in the breast cancer prevalence rate in the city of Goiânia between 1988 and 2002, possibly relating to the improvement in the screening and treatment of breast cancer.

Breast cancer in moroccan young women: a retrospective study

Background

Breast cancer is uncommon in young women and induces more aggressive biologic characteristics. Survival in young women has been widely studied in developed countries. Less favorable prognosis and low survival were found.

In Morocco, this study is the first investigation of clinical features, treatment and prognosis associated with breast cancer in young women.

Findings

Four hundred and nine women aged 35 years or less were included in this study. All these women were diagnosed as having breast cancer at the National Institute of Oncology in Rabat, Morocco between 2003 and 2007. The relation between clinical and therapeutic characteristics and event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS) were assessed by Cox regression analysis.

The median age of the patients was 32 years. Fifty three patients (13%) have metastatic disease at diagnosis and 356 patients (87%) had localised disease. In 57.9% of the cases, the estrogen receptors status was positive. The median follow-up was 32.2 months. After 3 years the survival rate was 80.6%. In the case of localised disease, OS and EFS at 3 years were 83.2% and 62.5%, respectively. OS and EFS at 3 years was higher in patients with stage I than patients with stage II and stage III (p = 0.001). Positive estrogen receptors was significantly associated to OS and EFS at 3 years compared to negative estrogen receptors (p = 0.001). Adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant radiotherapy and adjuvant hormone therapy were associated with net benefit in OS and EFS at 3 years. Cox regression analysis showed that negative ER was significantly associated with poorer OS (HR = 2.42, 95% CI = 1.25 - 4.66, p < 0.009) and poorer EFS (HR = 1.73, 95%CI = 1.05 - 2.86, p = 0.03). Stage III disease were associated to poorer EFS (HR = 5.35, 95%CI = 1.60 -17.84, p = 0.006).

Conclusions

In Morocco, young women with breast cancer had less favorable prognosis. Multivariate analysis showed that negative hormone receptor status was associated with lower EFS and OS. Clinical trials should be launched to improve the survival of these young women with breast cancer.

Prevalence of previous extracranial malignancies in a series of 1228 patients presenting with meningioma

OBJECT

The study of patients with multiple neoplasms can yield valuable insight into the common pathogenesis of both diseases, as well as identify more subtle risk factors that might not be as readily apparent otherwise. The authors present an analysis of the prevalence of previously diagnosed extracranial malignancies at the time of meningioma diagnosis in 1228 patients evaluated at a single institution.

METHODS

All patients who underwent evaluation and/or treatment for meningioma between 1991 and 2007 at the authors' institution were identified. The intake history and physical were assessed for any history of extracranial malignancy. Using the National Cancer Institute data, the authors calculated an expected cancer prevalence for their meningioma patient population, and compared this derived value to the observed rate of these cancers in this population.

RESULTS

There were 1228 patients included in this study. A total of 50 patients (4.1%) with newly diagnosed meningioma had a history of an extracranial malignant tumor at the time of their initial meningioma diagnosis. In general, most malignancies did not differ in prevalence from their expected frequency in the population in the present study. Notable exceptions were acute leukemia (p < 0.0001), and papillary thyroid carcinoma, which had a prevalence 2.5 times that expected in this population (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The data support a growing body of evidence suggesting an epidemiological link between papillary carcinoma of the thyroid and meningioma. Although the link between these tumors is not immediately apparent, it is possible that further exploration will yield interesting insight into the pathogenesis of both diseases.

Prevalence estimates for primary brain tumors in the United States by age, gender, behavior, and histology

Prevalence is the best indicator of cancer survivorship in the population, but few studies have focused on brain tumor prevalence because of previous data limitations. Hence, the full impact of primary brain tumors on the healthcare system in the United States is not completely described. The present study provides an estimate of the prevalence of disease in the United States, updating an earlier prevalence study. Incidence data for 2004 and survival data for 1985-2005 were obtained by the Central Brain Tumor Registry of the United States from selected regions, modeled under 2 different survival assumptions, to estimate prevalence rates for the year 2004 and projected estimates for 2010. The overall incidence rate for primary brain tumors was 18.1 per 100 000 person-years with 2-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year observed survival rates of 62%, 54%, 45%, and 30%, respectively. On the basis of the sum of nonmalignant and averaged malignant estimates, the overall prevalence rate of individuals with a brain tumor was estimated to be 209.0 per 100 000 in 2004 and 221.8 per 100 000 in 2010. The female prevalence rate (264.8 per 100 000) was higher than that in males (158.7 per 100 000). The averaged prevalence rate for malignant tumors (42.5 per 100 000) was lower than the prevalence for nonmalignant tumors (166.5 per 100 000). This study provides estimates of the 2004 (n = 612 770) and 2010 (n = 688 096) expected number of individuals living with primary brain tumor diagnoses in the United States, providing more current and robust estimates for aiding healthcare planning and patient advocacy for an aging US population.