Radiation-induced leukemia at doses relevant to radiation therapy: modeling mechanisms and estimating risks

Super-competition as a Novel Mechanism of the Dose-rate Effect in Radiation Carcinogenesis: A Mathematical Model Study

Data from animal experiments show that the radiation-related risk of cancer decreases if the dose rate is reduced, even though the cumulative dose is unchanged (i.e., a dose-rate effect); however, the underlying mechanism is not well understood. To explore factors underlying the dose-rate effect observed in experimental rat mammary carcinogenesis, we developed a mathematical model that accounts for cellular dynamics during carcinogenesis, and then examined whether the model predicts cancer incidence. A mathematical model of multistage carcinogenesis involving radiation-induced cell death and mutagenesis was constructed using differential equations. The mutation rate was changed depending on the dose rate. The model also considered competition among cells with various mutation levels. The main parameters of the model were determined using previous experimental data. The parameters of the model were consistent with experimental observations. A dose-rate effect on carcinogenesis became apparent when the relationship between dose rate and mutation rate was linear quadratic or quadratic. The dose-rate effect became prominent when cells with more mutations preferentially compensated for the radiation-induced death of cells with fewer mutations. The phenomenon by which mutated cells gain a competitive advantage over normal cells is known as super-competition. Here, we identified super-competition as a novel mechanism underlying the dose-rate effects on carcinogenesis. The data also confirmed the relevance of the shape of the relationship between dose rate and the mutation rate. Thus, this study provides new evidence for the mechanism underlying the dose-rate effect, which is important for predicting the cancer-related risks of low-dose-rate irradiation.

Mechanisms Underlying the Development of Murine T-Cell Lymphoblastic Lymphoma/Leukemia Induced by Total-Body Irradiation

Exposure to ionizing radiation is associated with an increased risk of hematologic malignancies in myeloid and lymphoid lineages in humans and experimental mice. Given that substantial evidence links radiation exposure with the risk of hematologic malignancies, it is imperative to deeply understand the mechanisms underlying cellular and molecular changes during the latency period between radiation exposure and the emergence of fully transformed malignant cells. One experimental model widely used in the field of radiation and cancer biology to study hematologic malignancies induced by radiation exposure is mouse models of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma. Murine radiation-induced thymic lymphoma is primarily driven by aberrant activation of Notch signaling, which occurs frequently in human precursor T-cell lymphoblastic lymphoma (T-LBL) and T-cell lymphoblastic leukemia (T-ALL). Here, we summarize the literature elucidating cell-autonomous and non-cell-autonomous mechanisms underlying cancer initiation, progression, and malignant transformation in the thymus following total-body irradiation (TBI) in mice.

A novel method for rapid estimation of active bone marrow dose for radiotherapy patients in epidemiological studies

BACKGROUND

In a dedicated effort to improve the assessment of clonal hematopoiesis (CH) and study leukemia risk following radiotherapy, we are developing a large-scale cohort study among cancer patients who received radiation. To that end, it will be critical to analyze dosimetric parameters of red bone marrow (ABM) exposure in relation to CH and its progression to myeloid neoplasms, requiring reconstruction method for ABM doses of a large-scale patients rapidly and accurately.

PURPOSE

To support a large-scale cohort study on the assessment of clonal hematopoiesis and leukemia risk following radiotherapy, we present a new method for the rapid reconstruction of ABM doses of radiotherapy among cancer patients.

METHODS

The key idea of the presented method is to segment patient bones rapidly and automatically by matching a whole-body computational human phantom, in which the skeletal system is divided into 34 bone sites, to patient CT images via 3D skeletal registration. The automatic approach was used to segment site-specific bones for 40 radiotherapy patients. Also, we segmented the bones manually. The bones segmented both manually and automatically were then combined with the patient dose matrix calculated by the treatment planning system (TPS) to derive patient ABM dose. We evaluated the performance of the automatic method in geometric and dosimetric accuracy by comparison with the manual approach.

RESULTS

The pelvis showed the best geometric performance [volume overlap fraction (VOF): 52% (mean) with 23% (σ) and average distance (AD): 0.8 cm (mean) with 0.5 cm (σ)]. The pelvis also showed the best dosimetry performance [absorbed dose difference (ADD): 0.7 Gy (mean) with 1.0 Gy (σ)]. Some bones showed unsatisfactory performances such as the cervical vertebrae [ADD: 5.2 Gy (mean) with 10.8 Gy (σ)]. This impact on the total ABM dose, however, was not significant. An excellent agreement for the total ABM dose was indeed observed [ADD: 0.4 Gy (mean) with 0.4 Gy (σ)]. The computation time required for dose calculation using our method was robust (about one minute per patient).

CONCLUSIONS

We confirmed that our method estimates ABM doses across treatment sites accurately, while providing high computational efficiency. The method will be used to reconstruct patient-specific ABM doses for dose-response assessment in a large cohort study. The method can also be applied to prospective dose calculation within a clinical TPS to support clinical decision making at the point of care.

The risk of cancer following high, and very high, doses of ionising radiation

It is established that moderate-to-high doses of ionising radiation increase the risk of subsequent cancer in the exposed individual, but the question arises as to the risk of cancer from higher doses, such as those delivered during radiotherapy, accidents, or deliberate acts of malice. In general, the cumulative dose received during a course of radiation treatment is sufficiently high that it would kill a person if delivered as a single dose to the whole body, but therapeutic doses are carefully fractionated and high/very high doses are generally limited to a small tissue volume under controlled conditions. The very high cumulative doses delivered as fractions during radiation treatment are designed to inactivate diseased cells, but inevitably some healthy cells will also receive high/very high doses. How the doses (ranging from <1 Gy to tens of Gy) received by healthy tissues during radiotherapy affect the risk of second primary cancer is an increasingly important issue to address as more cancer patients survive the disease. Studies show that, except for a turndown for thyroid cancer, a linear dose-response for second primary solid cancers seems to exist over a cumulative gamma radiation dose range of tens of gray, but with a gradient of excess relative risk per Gy that varies with the type of second cancer, and which is notably shallower than that found in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors receiving a single moderate-to-high acute dose. The risk of second primary cancer consequent to high/very high doses of radiation is likely to be due to repopulation of heavily irradiated tissues by surviving stem cells, some of which will have been malignantly transformed by radiation exposure, although the exact mechanism is not known, and various models have been proposed. It is important to understand the mechanisms that lead to the raised risk of second primary cancers consequent to the receipt of high/very high doses, in particular so that the risks associated with novel radiation treatment regimens-for example, intensity modulated radiotherapy and volumetric modulated arc therapy that deliver high doses to the target volume while exposing relatively large volumes of healthy tissue to low/moderate doses, and treatments using protons or heavy ions rather than photons-may be properly assessed.

Therapy-related myeloid neoplasms with normal karyotype show distinct genomic and clinical characteristics compared to their counterparts with abnormal karyotype

Therapy-related myeloid neoplasms (t-MNs) are a complication of treatment with cytotoxic chemotherapy and/or radiation therapy. The majority of t-MNs show chromosomal abnormalities associated with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) or KMT2A rearrangements and are characterized by poor clinical outcomes. A small but substantial subset of patients have normal karyotype (NK) and their clinical characteristics and mutational profiles are not well studied. We retrospectively studied patients diagnosed with t-MN at three institutions and compared the mutational profile and survival data between t-MNs with NK and t-MNs with abnormal karyotype (AK). A total of 204 patients with t-MN were identified including 158 with AK and 46 with NK. NK t-MNs, compared to AK, were enriched for mutations in TET2 (p < 0.0001), NPM1 (p < 0.0001), ASXL1 (p = 0.0003), SRSF2 (p < 0.0001), RUNX1 (p = 0.0336) and STAG2 (p = 0.0099) and showed a significantly lower frequency of TP53 mutations (p < 0.0001). Overall survival (OS) was significantly lower in AK t-MNs as compared to NK cases (p = 0.0094). In our study, NK t-MNs showed a significantly better OS, a higher prevalence of MN-associated mutations and a lower frequency of TP53 mutations compared to their AK counterparts. The distinct clinical and mutational profile of NK t-MNs merits a separate classification.

Estimating the risk of developing secondary hematologic malignancies in patients with T1/T2 prostate cancer undergoing diverse treatment modalities: A large population-based study

Background

Patients with prostate cancer (PC) are at a high risk of developing secondary hematologic malignancies (SHMs) after radiation therapy (RT), while no study has assessed the relationship of different treatment modalities with the occurrence of SHMs after PC at early stage. This study aimed to investigate the risks of developing SHMs in patients with T1/T2 PC undergoing different treatment modalities.

Methods

Patients with T1/T2 PC were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Competing risk regression (CRR) model was performed to evaluate the hazard ratios (HRs) of developing SHMs. As SHMs scarcely occur, the relative risk (RR) analysis was employed to compare the risks of different treatment modalities associating with the development of SHMs.

Results

The CRR analysis showed that undergoing RT was associated with a higher risk of developing SHMs (external beam radiation therapy [EBRT]: HR = 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.10–1.34; radioactive implant [RI]: HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.06–1.36). As for different types of SHMs, EBRT, and RI were correlated with decreased risks of developing CLL (RR = 0.67, 0.72; 95% CI: 0.53–0.85, 0.54–0.96, respectively), but with the increased risks of developing NHL (RR = 1.18, 1.23; 95% CI: 1.02–1.35, 1.05–1.44, respectively); EBRT also showed increased risks of developing acute/ chronic myeloid leukemia (AML/CML, RR = 1.54, 1.56; 95% CI: 1.16–2.03,1.05–2.33, respectively); No increased risk of developing SHMs was detected in patients who only underwent prostatectomy.

Conclusions

Although RT was found to be associated with the increased risks of developing SHMs in patients with T1/T2 PC, this finding cannot be extended to diverse types of SHMs. RT was correlated with the increased risks of the development of NHL, AML, and CML, but with the decreased risk of developing CLL. Prostatectomy did not increase the risk of developing SHMs.

Whole-Exome Sequencing of Radiation-Induced Thymic Lymphoma in Mouse Models Identifies Notch1 Activation as a Driver of p53 Wild-Type Lymphoma

Mouse models of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma are widely used to study the development of radiation-induced blood cancers and to gain insights into the biology of human T-cell lymphoblastic leukemia/lymphoma. Here we aimed to identify key oncogenic drivers for the development of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma by performing whole-exome sequencing using tumors and paired normal tissues from mice with and without irradiation. Thymic lymphomas from irradiated wild-type (WT), p53^+/-, and Kras^LA1 mice were not observed to harbor significantly higher numbers of nonsynonymous somatic mutations compared with thymic lymphomas from unirradiated p53^-/- mice. However, distinct patterns of recurrent mutations arose in genes that control the Notch1 signaling pathway based on the mutational status of p53. Preferential activation of Notch1 signaling in p53 WT lymphomas was also observed at the RNA and protein level. Reporter mice for activation of Notch1 signaling revealed that total-body irradiation (TBI) enriched Notch1^hi CD44⁺ thymocytes that could propagate in vivo after thymocyte transplantation. Mechanistically, genetic inhibition of Notch1 signaling in immature thymocytes prevented formation of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma in p53 WT mice. Taken together, these results demonstrate a critical role of activated Notch1 signaling in driving multistep carcinogenesis of thymic lymphoma following TBI in p53 WT mice. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings reveal the mutational landscape and key drivers in murine radiation-induced thymic lymphoma, a classic animal model that has been used to study radiation carcinogenesis for over 70 years.

Transplantation of Unirradiated Bone Marrow Cells after Total-Body Irradiation Prevents the Development of Thymic Lymphoma in Mice through Niche Competition

Mouse models of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma are commonly used to study the biological effects of total-body irradiation (TBI) on the formation of hematologic malignancies. It is well documented that radiation-induced thymic lymphoma can be inhibited by protecting the bone marrow (BM) from irradiation; however, the mechanisms underlying this phenomenon are poorly understood. Here, we aimed to address this question by performing transplantation of BM cells from genetically engineered mice that have defects in tumor immunosurveillance or occupying different thymic niches. We found that BM cells from mice that have impaired tumor immunosurveillance, by deleting tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), interferon gamma (IFNγ) or perforin-1 (PRF1), remained sufficient to suppress the formation of radiation-induced thymic lymphoma. On the other hand, BM cells from Rag2-/-; γc-/- mice and Rag2-/- mice, which have defects in occupying thymic niches beyond double negative (DN2) and DN3, respectively, failed to inhibit radiation-induced lymphomagenesis in the thymus. Taken together, based on our findings, we propose a model where unirradiated BM cells suppress radiation-induced lymphomagenesis in the thymus by competing with tumor-initiating cells for thymic niches beyond the DN3 stage.

[Myelodysplastic syndromes]

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS)-previously called "preleukemias"-are clonal diseases of the pluripotent hematopoietic stem cell. Their hallmark is peripheral cytopenias. Early forms are characterized by dysplasia of mature cells in the peripheral blood or erythropoiesis, granulopoiesis or megakaryocytes in the bone marrow, and later stages tend to accumulate blasts. About 30% transform into acute myeloid leukemia. MDS are diseases of the elderly and are prognostically divided into lower and higher risk diseases. Median survival times vary accordingly between 6 months and 10 years. Chromosomal abnormalities are identified in 50% of patients, and single or multiple gene mutations occur in 80%. They are the driving force leading to abnormalities in differentiation and to the accumulation of blasts in the bone marrow. Therapeutic options include supportive care, erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, demethylating agents, and allogeneic stem cell transplantation.

Volume effects of radiotherapy on the risk of second primary cancers: A systematic review of clinical and epidemiological studies

As modern radiotherapy, including intensity-modulated techniques, is associated with high dose gradients to normal tissues and large low-to-moderate dose volumes, the assessment of second primary cancer (SPC) risks requires quantification of dose-volume effects. We conducted a systematic review of clinical and epidemiological studies investigating the effect of the irradiated volume or dose-volume distribution to the remaining volume at risk (RVR) on SPC incidence. We identified eighteen studies comparing SPC risks according to the irradiated volume (i.e., in most studies, the size or number of fields used), and four studies reporting risk estimates according to the dose distribution to the RVR (after whole-body dose reconstruction). An increased risk of SPCs (mainly breast and lung cancers) with extended radiotherapy was observed among patients treated for Hodgkin lymphoma or childhood cancers. However, normal tissue dose distribution was not estimated, limiting the interpretation of those results in terms of volume effects on organs at risk. Studies considering whole-body exposures quantified dose-response relationships for point dose estimates, without accounting for dose-volume distributions. Therefore, they disregarded possible tissue effects (e.g. bystander and abscopal effects, stem cell repopulation) which may play a role in the induction of SPCs. Currently, there is no clinical or epidemiological information about a possible role of high dose gradients in surrounding organs, or increasing volumes of distant tissues exposed to low doses, in the risk of SPCs. Opportunities for future research nevertheless now exist, since methods and tools for estimating individual whole-body dose-volume distributions in large patient populations have been developed.

Low- and middle-income countries can reduce risks of subsequent neoplasms by referring pediatric craniospinal cases to centralized proton treatment centers

Few children with cancer in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) have access to proton therapy. Evidence exists to support replacing photon therapy with proton therapy to reduce the incidence of secondary malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in childhood cancer survivors. The purpose of this study was to estimate the potential reduction in SMN incidence and in SMN mortality for pediatric medulloblastoma patients in LMICs if proton therapy were made available to them. For nine children of ages 2 to 14 years, we calculated the equivalent dose in organs or tissues at risk for radiogenic SMNs from therapeutic and stray radiation for photon craniospinal irradiation (CSI) in a LMIC and proton CSI in a high-income country. We projected the lifetime risks of SMN incidence and SMN mortality for every SMN site with a widely-used model from the literature. We found that the average total lifetime attributable risks of incidence and mortality were very high for both photon CSI (168% and 41%, respectively) and proton CSI (88% and 26%, respectively). SMNs having the highest risk of mortality were lung cancer (16%), non-site-specific solid tumors (16%), colon cancer (5.9%), leukemia (5.4%), and for girls breast cancer (5.0%) after photon CSI and non-site-specific solid tumors (12%), lung cancer (11%), and leukemia (4.8%) after proton CSI. The risks were higher for younger children than for older children and higher for girls than for boys. The ratios of proton CSI to photon CSI of total risks of SMN incidence and mortality were 0.56 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.75) and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.45 to 0.82), respectively, averaged over this sample group. In conclusion, proton therapy has the potential to lessen markedly subsequent SMNs and SMN fatalities in survivors of childhood medulloblastoma in LMICs, for example, through regional centralized care. Additional methods should be explored urgently to reduce therapeutic-field doses in organs and tissues at risk for SMN, especially in the lungs, colon, and breast tissues.

Smoking and subsequent risk of leukemia in Japan: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Cigarette smoking has been reported to be associated with an increased risk of leukemia. Most epidemiological evidence on the association between cigarette smoking and leukemia risk is from studies conducted in Western populations, however, and evidence from Asian populations is scarce.

METHODS

We conducted a large-scale population-based cohort study of 96,992 Japanese subjects (46,493 men and 50,499 women; age 40-69 years at baseline) with an average 18.3 years of follow-up, during which we identified 90 cases of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), 19 of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and 28 of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox regression model adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

When we adjusted for age, sex, and study area, our findings showed no significant association or increasing dose-response relationship between risk of AML and cigarette smoking overall. However, after further adjustment for body mass index and occupation, current smokers with more than 30 pack-years of cigarette smoking had a significantly increased risk of AML compared to never smokers among men (HR 2.21; 95% CI, 1.01-4.83). This increased risk was not clear among women.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that cigarette smoking increases the risk of AML in Japanese men. The associations of smoking with AML among women, and with CML and ALL among men and women, should be assessed in future studies.

Evolved Cellular Mechanisms to Respond to Genotoxic Insults: Implications for Radiation-Induced Hematologic Malignancies

Human exposure to ionizing radiation is highly associated with adverse health effects, including reduced hematopoietic cell function and increased risk of carcinogenesis. The hematopoietic deficits manifest across blood cell types and persist for years after radiation exposure, suggesting a long-lived and multi-potent cellular reservoir for radiation-induced effects. As such, research has focused on identifying both the immediate and latent hematopoietic stem cell responses to radiation exposure. Radiation-associated effects on hematopoietic function and malignancy development have generally been attributed to the direct induction of mutations resulting from radiation-induced DNA damage. Other studies have illuminated the role of cellular programs that both limit and enhance radiation-induced tissue phenotypes and carcinogenesis. In this review, distinct but collaborative cellular responses to genotoxic insults are highlighted, with an emphasis on how these programmed responses impact hematopoietic cellular fitness and competition. These radiation-induced cellular programs include apoptosis, senescence and impaired self-renewal within the hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) pool. In the context of sporadic DNA damage to a cell, these cellular responses act in concert to restore tissue function and prevent selection for adaptive oncogenic mutations. But in the contexts of whole-tissue exposure or whole-body exposure to genotoxins, such as radiotherapy or chemotherapy, we propose that these programs can contribute to long-lasting tissue impairment and increased carcinogenesis.

Development of a robust DNA damage model including persistent telomere-associated damage with application to secondary cancer risk assessment

Mathematical modelling has been instrumental to understand kinetics of radiation-induced DNA damage repair and associated secondary cancer risk. The widely accepted two-lesion kinetic (TLK) model assumes two kinds of double strand breaks, simple and complex ones, with different repair rates. Recently, persistent DNA damage associated with telomeres was reported as a new kind of DNA damage. We therefore extended existing versions of the TLK model by new categories of DNA damage and re-evaluated those models using extensive data. We subjected different versions of the TLK model to a rigorous model discrimination approach. This enabled us to robustly select a best approximating parsimonious model that can both recapitulate and predict transient and persistent DNA damage after ionizing radiation. Models and data argue for i) nonlinear dose-damage relationships, and ii) negligible saturation of repair kinetics even for high doses. Additionally, we show that simulated radiation-induced persistent telomere-associated DNA damage foci (TAF) can be used to predict excess relative risk (ERR) of developing secondary leukemia after fractionated radiotherapy. We suggest that TAF may serve as an additional measure to predict cancer risk after radiotherapy using high dose rates. This may improve predicting risk-dose dependency of ionizing radiation especially for long-term therapies.

Concepts and challenges in cancer risk prediction for the space radiation environment

Cancer is an important long-term risk for astronauts exposed to protons and high-energy charged particles during travel and residence on asteroids, the moon, and other planets. NASA's Biomedical Critical Path Roadmap defines the carcinogenic risks of radiation exposure as one of four type I risks. A type I risk represents a demonstrated, serious problem with no countermeasure concepts, and may be a potential "show-stopper" for long duration spaceflight. Estimating the carcinogenic risks for humans who will be exposed to heavy ions during deep space exploration has very large uncertainties at present. There are no human data that address risk from extended exposure to complex radiation fields. The overarching goal in this area to improve risk modeling is to provide biological insight and mechanistic analysis of radiation quality effects on carcinogenesis. Understanding mechanisms will provide routes to modeling and predicting risk and designing countermeasures. This white paper reviews broad issues related to experimental models and concepts in space radiation carcinogenesis as well as the current state of the field to place into context recent findings and concepts derived from the NASA Space Radiation Program.

Minimizing second cancer risk following radiotherapy: current perspectives

Secondary cancer risk following radiotherapy is an increasingly important topic in clinical oncology with impact on treatment decision making and on patient management. Much of the evidence that underlies our understanding of secondary cancer risks and our risk estimates are derived from large epidemiologic studies and predictive models of earlier decades with large uncertainties. The modern era is characterized by more conformal radiotherapy technologies, molecular and genetic marker approaches, genome-wide studies and risk stratifications, and sophisticated biologically based predictive models of the carcinogenesis process. Four key areas that have strong evidence toward affecting secondary cancer risks are 1) the patient age at time of radiation treatment, 2) genetic risk factors, 3) the organ and tissue site receiving radiation, and 4) the dose and volume of tissue being irradiated by a particular radiation technology. This review attempts to summarize our current understanding on the impact on secondary cancer risks for each of these known risk factors. We review the recent advances in genetic studies and carcinogenesis models that are providing insight into the biologic processes that occur from tissue irradiation to the development of a secondary malignancy. Finally, we discuss current approaches toward minimizing the risk of radiation-associated secondary malignancies, an important goal of clinical radiation oncology.

Risk for developing myelodysplastic syndromes in prostate cancer patients definitively treated with radiation

BACKGROUND

Exposure to ionizing radiation has been linked to myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS); it is not clear whether therapeutic radiation doses used for prostate cancer pose an increased MDS risk.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective cohort study of prostate cancer patients diagnosed between 1986 and 2011 at Cleveland Clinic, comparing those who underwent definitive treatment with radical prostatectomy (RP) to radiotherapy either external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) or prostate interstitial brachytherapy (PI) and to population-based registries. Competing risk regression analyses were used to determine the cumulative risk of developing MDS. All statistical tests were two-sided.

RESULTS

Of 10924 patients, 5119 (47%) received radiation (n = 2183 [43%] in EBRT group and n = 2936 [57%] in PI group) and 5805 (53%) were treated with RP. Overall, 31 cases of MDS were observed, with age-adjusted incidence rates no higher than in population-based registries. In univariate analyses, advancing age (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.14; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.09 to 1.20; P < .001) and radiotherapy exposure (HR = 3.44; 95% CI = 1.41 to 8.37; P = .007) were statistically significantly associated with development of MDS. In multivariable analyses, although advanced age (HR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.19; P < .001) remained statistically associated with MDS, radiation did not, although a small non-statistically significant trend existed for PI-treated patients. MDS rates were no higher than in population-based registries.

CONCLUSIONS

With relatively short follow-up, prostate cancer patients definitively treated with radiation did not appear to have a statistically increased risk of subsequent MDS.

Second solid cancers after radiation therapy: a systematic review of the epidemiologic studies of the radiation dose-response relationship

Rapid innovations in radiation therapy techniques have resulted in an urgent need for risk projection models for second cancer risks from high-dose radiation exposure, because direct observation of the late effects of newer treatments will require patient follow-up for a decade or more. However, the patterns of cancer risk after fractionated high-dose radiation are much less well understood than those after lower-dose exposures (0.1-5 Gy). In particular, there is uncertainty about the shape of the dose-response curve at high doses and about the magnitude of the second cancer risk per unit dose. We reviewed the available evidence from epidemiologic studies of second solid cancers in organs that received high-dose exposure (>5 Gy) from radiation therapy where dose-response curves were estimated from individual organ-specific doses. We included 28 eligible studies with 3434 second cancer patients across 11 second solid cancers. Overall, there was little evidence that the dose-response curve was nonlinear in the direction of a downturn in risk, even at organ doses of ≥60 Gy. Thyroid cancer was the only exception, with evidence of a downturn after 20 Gy. Generally the excess relative risk per Gray, taking account of age and sex, was 5 to 10 times lower than the risk from acute exposures of <2 Gy among the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. However, the magnitude of the reduction in risk varied according to the second cancer. The results of our review provide insights into radiation carcinogenesis from fractionated high-dose exposures and are generally consistent with current theoretical models. The results can be used to refine the development of second solid cancer risk projection models for novel radiation therapy techniques.

Anthracycline dose intensification in young adults with acute myeloid leukemia

The initial treatment for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) has remained largely unchanged for nearly 40 years. Our growing understanding of the molecular pathology of AML has resulted in improved measures to risk stratify patients by recurrent cytogenetic and molecular abnormalities without marked advancement in its initial treatment. The most common regimen consists of a 3-day course of an anthracycline and a 7-day infusion of cytarabine. This regimen has been employed across the globe in various iterations for many years with modest improvements in results yet this remains the first choice for the treatment of younger adults with AML. Despite this, the chemotherapeutic agents in this regimen are only now being fully understood. Recent evidence has suggested that dose intensification of anthracycline in young adults has a significant survival benefit. In this paper we review the evidence behind the use of anthracyclines in the initial induction of AML in younger adults focusing on the choice and dose of this long used drug combination.

A reanalysis of curvature in the dose response for cancer and modifications by age at exposure following radiation therapy for benign disease

PURPOSE

To assess the shape of the dose response for various cancer endpoints and modifiers by age and time.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

Reanalysis of the US peptic ulcer data testing for heterogeneity of radiogenic risk by cancer endpoint (stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia, all other).

RESULTS

There are statistically significant (P<.05) excess risks for all cancer and for lung cancer and borderline statistically significant risks for stomach cancer (P=.07), and leukemia (P=.06), with excess relative risks Gy(-1) of 0.024 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.011, 0.039), 0.559 (95% CI 0.221, 1.021), 0.042 (95% CI -0.002, 0.119), and 1.087 (95% CI -0.018, 4.925), respectively. There is statistically significant (P=.007) excess risk of pancreatic cancer when adjusted for dose-response curvature. General downward curvature is apparent in the dose response, statistically significant (P<.05) for all cancers, pancreatic cancer, and all other cancers (ie, other than stomach, pancreas, lung, leukemia). There are indications of reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure (for all cancers, pancreatic cancer), but no evidence for quadratic variations in relative risk with age at exposure. If a linear-exponential dose response is used, there is no significant heterogeneity in the dose response among the 5 endpoints considered or in the speed of variation of relative risk with age at exposure. The risks are generally consistent with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers.

CONCLUSIONS

There are excess risks for various malignancies in this data set. Generally there is a marked downward curvature in the dose response and significant reduction in relative risk with increasing age at exposure. The consistency of risks with those observed in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in groups of nuclear workers implies that there may be little sparing effect of fractionation of dose or low-dose-rate exposure.

Irradiation induced foci (IRIF) as a biomarker for radiosensitivity

It has long been known that the level of radiosensitivity between individuals covers a considerable range. This range is reflected in analysis of patient cell lines with some cell lines showing significantly reduced sensitivity to in vitro radiation exposure. Our increased exposure to radiation from diagnostic medical procedures and other life style changes has raised concerns that there may be individuals who are at an elevated risk from the harmful impact of acute or chronic low dose radiation exposure. Additionally, a subset of patients show an enhanced normal tissue response following radiotherapy, which can cause significant discomfort and, at the extreme, be life threatening. It has long been realised that the ability to identify sensitive individuals and to understand the mechanistic basis underlying the range of sensitivity within the population is important. A reduced ability to efficiently repair DNA double strand breaks (DSB) and/or activate the DSB damage response underlies some, although not necessarily all, of this sensitivity. In this article, we consider the utility of the recently developed γH2AX foci analysis to provide insight into radiation sensitivity within the population. We consider the nature of sensitivity including the impact of radiation on cell survival, tissue responses and carcinogenesis and the range of responses within the population. We overview the current utility of the γH2AX assay for assessing the efficacy of the DNA damage response to low and high dose radiation and its potential future exploitation.

Chromosomal aberrations in the bone marrow cells of mice induced by accelerated (12)C(6+) ions

The whole bodies of 6-week-old male Kun-Ming mice were exposed to different doses of (12)C(6+) ions or X-rays. Chromosomal aberrations of the bone marrow (gaps, terminal deletions and breaks, fragments, inter-chromosomal fusions and sister-chromatid union) were scored in metaphase 9h after exposure, corresponding to cells exposed in the G(2)-phase of the first mitosis cycle. Dose-response relationships for the frequency of chromosomal aberrations were plotted both by linear and linear-quadratic equations. The data showed that there was a dose-related increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in all treated groups compared to controls. Linear-quadratic equations were a good fit for both radiation types. The compound theory of dual radiation action was applied to decipher the bigger curvature (D(2)) of the dose-response curves of X-rays compared to those of (12)C(6+) ions. Different distributions of the five types of aberrations and different degrees of homogeneity were found between (12)C(6+) ion and X-ray irradiation and the possible underlying mechanism for these phenomena were analyzed according to the differences in the spatial energy deposition of both types of radiation.

The effect of 6 and 15 MV on intensity-modulated radiation therapy prostate cancer treatment: plan evaluation, tumour control probability and normal tissue complication probability analysis, and the theoretical risk of secondary induced malignancies

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of 6 and 15-MV photon energies on intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) prostate cancer treatment plan outcome and to compare the theoretical risks of secondary induced malignancies.

METHODS

Separate prostate cancer IMRT plans were prepared for 6 and 15-MV beams. Organ-equivalent doses were obtained through thermoluminescent dosemeter measurements in an anthropomorphic Aldersen radiation therapy human phantom. The neutron dose contribution at 15 MV was measured using polyallyl-diglycol-carbonate neutron track etch detectors. Risk coefficients from the International Commission on Radiological Protection Report 103 were used to compare the risk of fatal secondary induced malignancies in out-of-field organs and tissues for 6 and 15 MV. For the bladder and the rectum, a comparative evaluation of the risk using three separate models was carried out. Dose-volume parameters for the rectum, bladder and prostate planning target volume were evaluated, as well as normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) and tumour control probability calculations.

RESULTS

There is a small increased theoretical risk of developing a fatal cancer from 6 MV compared with 15 MV, taking into account all the organs. Dose-volume parameters for the rectum and bladder show that 15 MV results in better volume sparing in the regions below 70 Gy, but the volume exposed increases slightly beyond this in comparison with 6 MV, resulting in a higher NTCP for the rectum of 3.6% vs 3.0% (p=0.166).

CONCLUSION

The choice to treat using IMRT at 15 MV should not be excluded, but should be based on risk vs benefit while considering the age and life expectancy of the patient together with the relative risk of radiation-induced cancer and NTCPs.

Stem cell niches and other factors that influence the sensitivity of bone marrow to radiation-induced bone cancer and leukaemia in children and adults

PURPOSE

This paper reviews and reassesses the internationally accepted niches or 'targets' in bone marrow that are sensitive to the induction of leukaemia and primary bone cancer by radiation.

CONCLUSIONS

The hypoxic conditions of the 10 μm thick endosteal/osteoblastic niche where preleukemic stem cells and hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) reside provides a radioprotective microenvironment that is 2- to 3-fold less radiosensitive than vascular niches. This supports partitioning the whole marrow target between the low haematological cancer risk of irradiating HSC in the endosteum and the vascular niches within central marrow. There is a greater risk of induced bone cancer when irradiating a 50 μm thick peripheral marrow adjacent to the remodelling/reforming portion of the trabecular bone surface, rather than marrow next to the quiescent bone surface. This choice of partitioned bone cancer target is substantiated by the greater radiosensitivity of: (i) Bone with high remodelling rates, (ii) the young, (iii) individuals with hypermetabolic benign diseases of bone, and (iv) the epidemiology of alpha-emitting exposures. Evidence is given to show that the absence of excess bone-cancer in atomic-bomb survivors may be partially related to the extremely low prevalence among Japanese of Paget's disease of bone. Radiation-induced fibrosis and the wound healing response may be implicated in not only radiogenic bone cancers but also leukaemia. A novel biological mechanism for adaptive response, and possibility of dynamic targets, is advocated whereby stem cells migrate from vascular niches to stress-mitigated, hypoxic niches.

A new view of radiation-induced cancer

Biologically motivated mathematical models are important for understanding the mechanisms of radiation-induced carcinogenesis. Existing models fall into two categories: (1) short-term formalisms, which focus on the processes taking place during and shortly after irradiation (effects of dose, radiation quality, dose rate and fractionation), and (2) long-term formalisms, which track background cancer risks throughout the entire lifetime (effects of age at exposure and time since exposure) but make relatively simplistic assumptions about radiation effects. Grafting long-term mechanisms on to short-term models is badly needed for modelling radiogenic cancer. A combined formalism was developed and applied to cancer risk data in atomic bomb survivors and radiotherapy patients and to background cancer incidence. The data for nine cancer types were described adequately with a set of biologically meaningful parameters for each cancer. These results suggest that the combined short-long-term approach is a potentially promising method for predicting radiogenic cancer risks and interpreting the underlying biological mechanisms.

The balance between initiation and promotion in radiation-induced murine carcinogenesis

Studies of radiation carcinogenesis in animals allow detailed investigation of how the risk depends on age at exposure and time since exposure and of the mechanisms that determine this risk, e.g., induction of new pre-malignant cells (initiation) and enhanced proliferation of already existing pre-malignant cells (promotion). To assist the interpretation of these patterns, we apply a newly developed biologically based mathematical model to data on several types of solid tumors induced by acute whole-body radiation in mice. The model includes both initiation and promotion and analyzes pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: comparatively short-term during irradiation and long-term during the entire life span. Our results suggest general mechanistic similarities between radiation carcinogenesis in mice and in human atomic bomb survivors. The excess relative risk (ERR) in mice decreases with age at exposure up to an exposure age of 1 year, which corresponds to mid-adulthood in humans; the pattern for older ages at exposure, for which there is some evidence of increasing ERRs in atomic bomb survivors, cannot be evaluated using the data set analyzed here. Also similar to findings in humans, initiation dominates the ERR at young ages in mice, when there are few background pre-malignant cells, and promotion becomes important at older ages.

Pelvic radiotherapy and the risk of secondary leukemia and multiple myeloma

BACKGROUND

Although several studies had examined secondary malignancies in patients with specific primary tumor types, to the authors' knowledge there are very few data examining the long-term sequelae of pelvic radiation as a whole. The goal of the current study was to examine the risk of treatment-associated leukemia and multiple myeloma in patients treated with pelvic radiotherapy.

METHODS

Patients with invasive tumors of the vulva, cervix, uterus, anus, and rectosigmoid treated from 1973 to 2005 and recorded in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database were analyzed. Patients were stratified based on receipt of pelvic radiotherapy. The incidence of secondary leukemia (except chronic lymphocytic leukemia) and multiple myeloma were examined. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed to examine the association between pelvic radiation and the development of subsequent hematologic malignancies.

RESULTS

A total of 199,268 individuals, including 66,896 (34%) who received pelvic radiotherapy and 132,372 (66%) not treated with radiation, were identified. In a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for other risk factors, post-treatment leukemia was increased by 72% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.72; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.37-2.15) in the patients who received pelvic radiotherapy. The risk of secondary leukemia peaked at 5 to 10 years after primary treatment (HR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.40-2.44) and remained elevated even 10 to 15 years after initial treatment (HR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.03-2.18). There was no significant association between radiation and the development of multiple myeloma (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 0.81-1.44).

CONCLUSIONS

Pelvic radiation was associated with an increased risk of secondary leukemia but did not appear to increase the risk of multiple myeloma.

A new view of radiation-induced cancer: integrating short- and long-term processes. Part II: second cancer risk estimation

As the number of cancer survivors grows, prediction of radiotherapy-induced second cancer risks becomes increasingly important. Because the latency period for solid tumors is long, the risks of recently introduced radiotherapy protocols are not yet directly measurable. In the accompanying article, we presented a new biologically based mathematical model, which, in principle, can estimate second cancer risks for any protocol. The novelty of the model is that it integrates, into a single formalism, mechanistic analyses of pre-malignant cell dynamics on two different time scales: short-term during radiotherapy and recovery; long-term during the entire life span. Here, we apply the model to nine solid cancer types (stomach, lung, colon, rectal, pancreatic, bladder, breast, central nervous system, and thyroid) using data on radiotherapy-induced second malignancies, on Japanese atomic bomb survivors, and on background US cancer incidence. Potentially, the model can be incorporated into radiotherapy treatment planning algorithms, adding second cancer risk as an optimization criterion.

A new view of radiation-induced cancer: integrating short- and long-term processes. Part I: approach

Mathematical models of radiation carcinogenesis are important for understanding mechanisms and for interpreting or extrapolating risk. There are two classes of such models: (1) long-term formalisms that track pre-malignant cell numbers throughout an entire lifetime but treat initial radiation dose-response simplistically and (2) short-term formalisms that provide a detailed initial dose-response even for complicated radiation protocols, but address its modulation during the subsequent cancer latency period only indirectly. We argue that integrating short- and long-term models is needed. As an example of this novel approach, we integrate a stochastic short-term initiation/inactivation/repopulation model with a deterministic two-stage long-term model. Within this new formalism, the following assumptions are implemented: radiation initiates, promotes, or kills pre-malignant cells; a pre-malignant cell generates a clone, which, if it survives, quickly reaches a size limitation; the clone subsequently grows more slowly and can eventually generate a malignant cell; the carcinogenic potential of pre-malignant cells decreases with age.

New models for evaluation of radiation-induced lifetime cancer risk and its uncertainty employed in the UNSCEAR 2006 report

Generalized relative and absolute risk models are fitted to the latest Japanese atomic bomb survivor solid cancer and leukemia mortality data (through 2000), with the latest (DS02) dosimetry, by classical (regression calibration) and Bayesian techniques, taking account of errors in dose estimates and other uncertainties. Linear-quadratic and linear-quadratic-exponential models are fitted and used to assess risks for contemporary populations of China, Japan, Puerto Rico, the U.S. and the UK. Many of these models are the same as or very similar to models used in the UNSCEAR 2006 report. For a test dose of 0.1 Sv, the solid cancer mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 5.4% Sv(-1) [90% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 3.1, 8.0]. At 0.1 Sv, leukemia mortality for a UK population using the generalized linear-quadratic relative risk model is estimated as 0.50% Sv(-1) (90% BCI 0.11, 0.97). Risk estimates varied little between populations; at 0.1 Sv the central estimates ranged from 3.7 to 5.4% Sv(-1) for solid cancers and from 0.4 to 0.6% Sv(-1) for leukemia. Analyses using regression calibration techniques yield central estimates of risk very similar to those for the Bayesian approach. The central estimates of population risk were similar for the generalized absolute risk model and the relative risk model. Linear-quadratic-exponential models predict lower risks (at least at low test doses) and appear to fit as well, although for other (theoretical) reasons we favor the simpler linear-quadratic models.

Cross-scale sensitivity analysis of a non-small cell lung cancer model: linking molecular signaling properties to cellular behavior

Sensitivity analysis is an effective tool for systematically identifying specific perturbations in parameters that have significant effects on the behavior of a given biosystem, at the scale investigated. In this work, using a two-dimensional, multiscale non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) model, we examine the effects of perturbations in system parameters which span both molecular and cellular levels, i.e. across scales of interest. This is achieved by first linking molecular and cellular activities and then assessing the influence of parameters at the molecular level on the tumor's spatio-temporal expansion rate, which serves as the output behavior at the cellular level. Overall, the algorithm operated reliably over relatively large variations of most parameters, hence confirming the robustness of the model. However, three pathway components (proteins PKC, MEK, and ERK) and eleven reaction steps were determined to be of critical importance by employing a sensitivity coefficient as an evaluation index. Each of these sensitive parameters exhibited a similar changing pattern in that a relatively larger increase or decrease in its value resulted in a lesser influence on the system's cellular performance. This study provides a novel cross-scaled approach to analyzing sensitivities of computational model parameters and proposes its application to interdisciplinary biomarker studies.

Individualized estimates of second cancer risks after contemporary radiation therapy for Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND

Estimates of radiation-related second cancer risk among Hodgkin lymphoma survivors are largely based on radiation therapy (RT) fields and doses no longer in use, and these estimates do not account for differences in normal tissue dose among individual patients. This study gives individualized estimates for the risks of lung and female breast cancer expected with contemporary involved-field RT and low-dose (20 Gy) RT for mediastinal Hodgkin lymphoma.

METHODS

Three RT plans were constructed for 37 consecutive patients with mediastinal Hodgkin lymphoma: 35 Gy mantle RT, 35 Gy involved-field RT (IFRT), and 20 Gy IFRT. For each of the 111 RT plans, individual-level dosimetry data were incorporated into a cell initiation/inactivation/proliferation model to estimate the excess relative risk (ERR) and cumulative incidence of radiation-induced second cancer.

RESULTS

ERR estimates were compatible with results of epidemiological studies. Compared with 35 Gy mantle radiation therapy, 35 Gy IFRT was predicted to reduce the 20-year ERRs of breast and lung cancer by 63% and 21%, respectively, primarily because of lower normal tissue doses with the omission of axillary RT. Low-dose (20 Gy) IFRT was associated with a 77% and 57% decrease in these ERRs. Patient-specific differences in normal tissue dose with IFRT led to 11-fold and 3.6-fold variations among individual's estimates of breast and lung cancer ERR, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Contemporary IFRT is predicted to substantially reduce risk of secondary breast and lung cancer compared with mantle RT, with considerable variation in risk among individuals. Individualized prospective risk estimates could facilitate patient-specific counseling and the development of more effective RT techniques.

Leukaemia following childhood radiation exposure in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and in medically exposed groups

Incidence and mortality risks of radiation-associated leukaemia are surveyed in the Japanese atomic bomb (A-bomb) survivors exposed in early childhood and in utero. Leukaemia incidence and mortality risks are also surveyed in 16 other studies of persons who received appreciable doses of ionizing radiation in the course of treatment in childhood and for whom there is adequate dosimetry and cancer incidence or mortality follow-up. Relative risks tend to be lower in the medical series than in the Japanese A-bomb survivors. The relative risks in the medical studies tend to diminish with increasing average therapy dose. After taking account of cell sterilisation and dose fractionation, the apparent differences between the relative risks for leukaemia in the Japanese A-bomb survivors and in the medical series largely disappear. This suggests that cell sterilisation largely accounts for the discrepancy between the relative risks in the Japanese data and the medical studies. Excess absolute risk has also been assessed in four studies, and there is found to be more variability in this measure than in excess relative risk. In particular, there is a substantial difference between the absolute risk in the Japanese atomic bomb survivor data and those in three other (European) populations. In summary, the relative risks of leukaemia in studies of persons exposed to appreciable doses of ionizing radiation in the course of treatment for a variety of malignant and non-malignant conditions in childhood are generally less than those in the Japanese A-bomb survivor data. The effects of cell sterilisation can largely explain the discrepancy between the Japanese and the medical series.

Second cancers after fractionated radiotherapy: stochastic population dynamics effects

When ionizing radiation is used in cancer therapy it can induce second cancers in nearby organs. Mainly due to longer patient survival times, these second cancers have become of increasing concern. Estimating the risk of solid second cancers involves modeling: because of long latency times, available data is usually for older, obsolescent treatment regimens. Moreover, modeling second cancers gives unique insights into human carcinogenesis, since the therapy involves administering well-characterized doses of a well-studied carcinogen, followed by long-term monitoring. In addition to putative radiation initiation that produces pre-malignant cells, inactivation (i.e. cell killing), and subsequent cell repopulation by proliferation, can be important at the doses relevant to second cancer situations. A recent initiation/inactivation/proliferation (IIP) model characterized quantitatively the observed occurrence of second breast and lung cancers, using a deterministic cell population dynamics approach. To analyze if radiation-initiated pre-malignant clones become extinct before full repopulation can occur, we here give a stochastic version of this IIP model. Combining Monte-Carlo simulations with standard solutions for time-inhomogeneous birth-death equations, we show that repeated cycles of inactivation and repopulation, as occur during fractionated radiation therapy, can lead to distributions of pre-malignant cells per patient with variance>>mean, even when pre-malignant clones are Poisson-distributed. Thus fewer patients would be affected, but with a higher probability, than a deterministic model, tracking average pre-malignant cell numbers, would predict. Our results are applied to data on breast cancers after radiotherapy for Hodgkin disease. The stochastic IIP analysis, unlike the deterministic one, indicates: (a) initiated, pre-malignant cells can have a growth advantage during repopulation, not just during the longer tumor latency period that follows; (b) weekend treatment gaps during radiotherapy, apart from decreasing the probability of eradicating the primary cancer, substantially increase the risk of later second cancers.

Local radiotherapy induces homing of hematopoietic stem cells to the irradiated bone marrow

Local breast radiation therapy (RT) is associated with a 3-fold increased risk of secondary acute myeloid leukemia. As a first step in determining the mechanism(s) underlying this observation, we investigated the role of RT in mediating the active recruitment of hematopoietic stem cells (HSC) to the site of RT. Our results show in a mouse model that local RT delivered to the left leg causes preferential accumulation of bone marrow mononuclear cells to the irradiated site, with maximum signal intensity observed at 7 days post-RT. This is associated with a 4-fold higher number of donor-derived HSC present in the left leg, demonstrating recruitment of HSC to the site of RT. SDF-1, matrix metalloproteinase 2 (MMP-2), and MMP-9 expression is significantly increased in the irradiated bone marrow, and their inhibition significantly reduced HSC recruitment to the irradiated bone marrow. Our data show that local RT has significant systemic effects by recruiting HSC to the irradiated bone marrow site, a process mediated by SDF-1, MMP-2, and MMP-9. These results raise the possibility that the exposure of increased numbers of HSC at a local site to fractionated irradiation may increase the risk of leukemogenesis. Our data also suggest some opportunities for leukemia prevention in breast cancer patients undergoing RT.

A multi-compartment cell repopulation model allowing for inter-compartmental migration following radiation exposure, applied to leukaemia

There is much uncertainty about cancer risks at the high radiation doses used in radiotherapy (RT). It has generally been assumed that cancer induction decreases rapidly at high doses due to cell killing. However, this is not seen in all RT groups, and a model recently developed by Sachs and Brenner [2005. Solid tumor risks after high doses of ionizing radiation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 102, 13040-13045] proposed a mechanism for repopulation of cells after radiation exposure that explained why this might happen, at least for solid tumours. In this paper, this model is generalized to allow for heterogeneity in the dose received, and various alternate patterns of repopulation are also considered. The model is fitted to the Japanese atomic bomb survivor leukaemia incidence data, and data for various therapeutically irradiated groups. Two sets of parameters from these model fits are used to assess the sensitivity of model predictions. It is shown that in general allowing for heterogeneity in dose distribution and haematopoietic stem cell migration results in lower risks than the same average dose administered uniformly and without such migration, although this does not hold in the limiting case of complete stem cell repopulation between radiation dose fractions. We also investigate the difference made by assuming a compartmental repopulation signal, and a global repopulation signal. In general we show that in the absence of stochastic extinction, compartmental repopulation always predicts a larger number of mutated cells than global repopulation. However, in certain dose regimes stochastic extinction cannot be ignored, and in these cases the numbers of mutated cells predicted with global repopulation can exceed that for compartmental repopulation. In general, mutant cell numbers are highly overdispersed, with variance much greater than the mean.