Clarifying misconceptions of extinction risk assessment with the IUCN Red List

Is the long-tailed macaque at risk of extinction?

We review the evidence that long-tailed macaques are at risk of extinction and find that papers supporting this argument present no data supporting a hypothesized decline in abundance. These papers contain numerous misrepresentations of the published literature. Long-tailed macaques thrive in human-altered habitats, are listed by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature as an invasive species of concern, and have shown the ability to increase by 7%-10% per year from low numbers, making the probability of extinction very low.

Eco-physiological trait variation in widely occurring species of Western Himalaya along elevational gradients reveals their high adaptive potential in stressful conditions

Species distributed across a wide elevation range have broad environmental tolerance and adopt specific adaptation strategies to cope with varying climatic conditions. The aim of this study is to understand the patterns of variation in leaf eco-physiological traits that are related to the adaptation of species with a wide distribution in different climatic conditions. We studied the variability in eco-physiological traits of two co-occurring species of Western Himalaya (Rumex nepalensis and Taraxacum officinale), along elevational gradients. We conducted our study in elevations ranging from 1000 to 4000 m a.s.l. in three transects separated in an eco-region spanning 2.5° latitudes and 2.3° longitudes in the Western Himalaya. We hypothesized substantial variation in eco-physiological traits, especially increased net rate of photosynthesis (PN), Rubisco specific activity (RSA), and biochemicals at higher elevations, enabling species to adapt to varying environmental conditions. Therefore, the photosynthetic measurements along with leaf sampling were carried out during the months of June-August and the variations in photosynthetic performance and other leaf traits were assessed. Data was analyzed using a linear mixed effect model with 'species,' 'elevation' as fixed and 'transect' as random factor. Elevation had a significant effect on majority of traits. It was found that PN and maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) have unimodal or declining trend along increasing elevations. High RSA was observed at higher elevations in all the three transects. Trends for biochemical traits such as total soluble sugars, total soluble proteins, proline, and total phenolics content suggested an increase in these traits for the survival of plants in harsh environments of higher elevations. Our study reveals that although there is considerable variation in the eco-physiological traits of the two species across elevational gradients of different transects, there are certain similarities in the patterns that depict their high adaptive potential in varying climatic conditions.

New data on the distribution and diversity of the Tonkin limestone rat (Tonkinomysdaovantieni, Rodentia, Muridae)

The paper presented novel findings of little-known species of rodents the Tonkin limestone rat Tonkinomysdaovantieni in Cao Bang Province, Vietnam with its morphological and genetic characterisation. The study summarises data on the distribution of this data-deficient species, available museum collections, genetic samples, information on its taxonomy and ecology, important to establish the proper conservation status of the species. An exhaustive map of the findings is provided. It is shown that, based on the data currently available, the species does not require taxonomic revision and also, apparently, does not need a special conservation measure; its status may be established to date as Near Threatened B1a+2a and the current population trend - Stable, IUCN.

The Present and Future of Insect Biodiversity Conservation in the Neotropics: Policy Gaps and Recommendations

Emerging evidence suggests that insect populations may be declining at local and global scales, threatening the sustainability of the ecosystem services that insects provide. Insect declines are of particular concern in the Neotropics, which holds several of the world's hotspots of insect endemism and diversity. Conservation policies are one way to prevent and mitigate insect declines, yet these policies are usually biased toward vertebrate species. Here, we outline some key policy instruments for biodiversity conservation in the Neotropics and discuss their potential contribution and shortcomings for insect biodiversity conservation. These include species-specific action policies, protected areas and Indigenous and Community Conserved Areas (ICCAs), sectoral policies, biodiversity offsetting, market-based mechanisms, and the international policy instruments that underpin these efforts. We highlight that although these policies can potentially benefit insect biodiversity indirectly, there are avenues in which we could better incorporate the specific needs of insects into policy to mitigate the declines mentioned above. We propose several areas of improvement. Firstly, evaluating the extinction risk of more Neotropical insects to better target at-risk species with species-specific policies and conserve their habitats within area-based interventions. Secondly, alternative pest control methods and enhanced monitoring of insects in a range of land-based production sectors. Thirdly, incorporating measurable and achievable insect conservation targets into international policies and conventions. Finally, we emphasise the important roles of community engagement and enhanced public awareness in achieving these improvements to insect conservation policies.

Biodiversity conservation: Looking over the horizon

In an age of planetary changes, conservation efforts are essential to protect biodiversity and nature's benefits to people. Large-scale quantitative analyses forecasting major threats to biodiversity can provide insights into which species and areas should be prioritised for conservation.

Scale of population synchrony confirms macroecological estimates of minimum viable range size

Global ecosystems are facing a deepening biodiversity crisis, necessitating robust approaches to quantifying species extinction risk. The lower limit of the macroecological relationship between species range and body size has long been hypothesized as an estimate of the relationship between the minimum viable range size (MVRS) needed for species persistence and the organismal traits that affect space and resource requirements. Here, we perform the first explicit test of this assumption by confronting the MVRS predicted by the range-body size relationship with an independent estimate based on the scale of synchrony in abundance among spatially separated populations of riverine fish. We provide clear evidence of a positive relationship between the scale of synchrony and species body size, and strong support for the MVRS set by the lower limit of the range-body size macroecological relationship. This MVRS may help prioritize first evaluations for unassessed or data-deficient taxa in global conservation assessments.

The EDGE2 protocol: Advancing the prioritisation of Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered species for practical conservation action

The conservation of evolutionary history has been linked to increased benefits for humanity and can be captured by phylogenetic diversity (PD). The Evolutionarily Distinct and Globally Endangered (EDGE) metric has, since 2007, been used to prioritise threatened species for practical conservation that embody large amounts of evolutionary history. While there have been important research advances since 2007, they have not been adopted in practice because of a lack of consensus in the conservation community. Here, building from an interdisciplinary workshop to update the existing EDGE approach, we present an "EDGE2" protocol that draws on a decade of research and innovation to develop an improved, consistent methodology for prioritising species conservation efforts. Key advances include methods for dealing with uncertainty and accounting for the extinction risk of closely related species. We describe EDGE2 in terms of distinct components to facilitate future revisions to its constituent parts without needing to reconsider the whole. We illustrate EDGE2 by applying it to the world's mammals. As we approach a crossroads for global biodiversity policy, this Consensus View shows how collaboration between academic and applied conservation biologists can guide effective and practical priority-setting to conserve biodiversity.

Implications for conservation assessment from flux in the botanical record over 20 years in southwest Ghana

At best, conservation decisions can only be made using the data available at the time. For plants and especially in the tropics, natural history collections remain the best available baseline information upon which to base conservation assessments, in spite of well-documented limitations in their taxonomic, geographic, and temporal coverage. We explore the extent to which changes to the plant biological record over 20 years have changed our conception of the conservation importance of 931 plant taxa, and 114 vegetation samples, recorded in forest reserves of the southwest Ghana biodiversity hotspot. 36% of species-level assessments changed as a result of new distribution data. 12% of species accepted in 2016 had no assessment in 1996: of those, 20% are new species publications, 60% are new records for SW Ghana, and 20% are taxonomic resolutions. Apparent species ranges have increased over time as new records are made, but new species publications are overwhelmingly of globally rare species, keeping the balance of perceived rarity in the flora constant over 20 years. Thus, in spite of considerable flux at the species record level, range size rarity scores calculated for 114 vegetation samples of the reserves in 1996 and 2016 are highly correlated with each other: r(112) = 0.84, p < .0005, and showed no difference in mean score over 20 years: paired t(113) = -0.482, p = .631. This consistency in results at the area level allows for worthwhile conservation priority setting over time, and we argue is the better course of action than taking no action at all.

The IUCN Green Status of Species: A Call for Mediterranean Botanists to Contribute to This New Ambitious Effort

In the Mediterranean Basin, a critical focal point for the conservation of plant diversity, there has been a large increase in practical conservation actions for many plant species to prevent extinction and to improve their conservation status; quantifying the effectiveness of these initiatives in reversing species declines is urgently important. In 2021, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) launched a new tool that allows the impact of conservation actions on plant species to be assessed. The Green Status of Species is a new set of metrics under the Red List of Threatened Species that assigns species to recovery categories, complementary to the classic extinction risk categories. Crucially, the Green Status of Species provides methods to evaluate the impact of past conservation, and the potential for future conservation impact, on species status and recovery in a standardized way. Considering the efforts made so far for the conservation of Mediterranean threatened plants, using the Green Status of Species would be highly useful to direct future conservation policies. We, therefore, encourage botanists and practitioners working on threatened plants in the Mediterranean area to use this new assessment tool to inform conservation and recovery programs.

Genomic erosion in a demographically recovered bird species during conservation rescue

The pink pigeon (Nesoenas mayeri) is an endemic species of Mauritius that has made a remarkable recovery after a severe population bottleneck in the 1970s to early 1990s. Prior to this bottleneck, an ex situ population was established from which captive-bred individuals were released into free-living subpopulations to increase population size and genetic variation. This conservation rescue led to rapid population recovery to 400-480 individuals, and the species was twice downlisted on the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List. We analyzed the impacts of the bottleneck and genetic rescue on neutral genetic variation during and after population recovery (1993-2008) with restriction site-associated sequencing, microsatellite analyses, and quantitative genetic analysis of studbook data of 1112 birds from zoos in Europe and the United States. We used computer simulations to study the predicted changes in genetic variation and population viability from the past into the future. Genetic variation declined rapidly, despite the population rebound, and the effective population size was approximately an order of magnitude smaller than census size. The species carried a high genetic load of circa 15 lethal equivalents for longevity. Our computer simulations predicted continued inbreeding will likely result in increased expression of deleterious mutations (i.e., a high realized load) and severe inbreeding depression. Without continued conservation actions, it is likely that the pink pigeon will go extinct in the wild within 100 years. Conservation rescue of the pink pigeon has been instrumental in the recovery of the free-living population. However, further genetic rescue with captive-bred birds from zoos is required to recover lost variation, reduce expression of harmful deleterious variation, and prevent extinction. The use of genomics and modeling data can inform IUCN assessments of the viability and extinction risk of species, and it helps in assessments of the conservation dependency of populations.

Assessing conservation status with extensive but low-resolution data: Application of frequentist and Bayesian models to endangered Athabasca River rainbow trout

Use of extensive but low-resolution abundance data is common in the assessment of species at-risk status based on quantitative decline criteria under International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) and national endangered species legislation. Such data can be problematic for 3 reasons. First, statistical power to reject the null hypothesis of no change is often low because of small sample size and high sampling uncertainty leading to a high frequency of type II errors. Second, range-wide assessments composed of multiple site-specific observations do not effectively weight site-specific trends into global trends. Third, uncertainty in site-specific temporal trends and relative abundance are not propagated at the appropriate spatial scale. A common result is the propensity to underestimate the magnitude of declines and therefore fail to identify the appropriate at-risk status for a species. We used 3 statistical approaches, from simple to more complex, to estimate temporal decline rates for a designatable unit (DU) of rainbow trout in the Athabasca River watershed in western Canada. This DU is considered a native species for purposes of listing because of its genetic composition characterized as >0.95 indigenous origin in the face of continuing introgressive hybridization with introduced populations in the watershed. Analysis of abundance trends from 57 time series with a fixed-effects model identified 33 sites with negative trends, but only 2 were statistically significant. By contrast, a hierarchical linear mixed model weighted by site-specific abundance provided a DU-wide decline estimate of 16.4% per year and a 3-generation decline of 93.2%. A hierarchical Bayesian mixed model yielded a similar 3-generation decline trend of 91.3% and the posterior distribution showed that the estimate had a >99% probability of exceeding thresholds for an endangered listing. We conclude that the Bayesian approach was the most useful because it provided a probabilistic statement of threshold exceedance in support of an at-risk status recommendation.

Assessing the extinction risk of insular, understudied marine species

Hydrothermal vents are rare deep-sea oases that house faunal assemblages with a similar density of life as coral reefs. Only approximately 600 of these hotspots are known worldwide, most only one-third of a football field in size. With advancing development of the deep-sea mining industry, there is an urgent need to protect these unique, insular ecosystems and their specialist endemic faunas. We applied the IUCN (International Union for the Conservation of Nature) Red List criteria to assess the extinction risk of vent-endemic molluscs with varying exposure to potential deep-sea mining. We assessed 31 species from three key areas under different regulatory frameworks in the Indian, West Pacific, and Southern Oceans. Three vent mollusc species were also examined as case studies of different threat contexts (protected or not from potential mining) to explore the interaction of local regulatory frameworks and IUCN Red List category assignment. We found that these assessments were robust even when there was some uncertainty in the total range of individual species, allowing assessment of species that have only recently been named and described. For vent-endemic species, regulatory changes to area-based management can have a greater impact on IUCN Red List assessment outcomes than incorporating additional data about species distributions. Our approach revealed the most useful IUCN Red List criteria for vent-endemic species: criteria B and D2. This approach, combining regulatory framework and distribution, has the potential to rapidly gauge assessment outcomes for species in insular systems worldwide.

Prevalence of sustainable and unsustainable use of wild species inferred from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species

Unsustainable exploitation of wild species represents a serious threat to biodiversity and to the livelihoods of local communities and Indigenous peoples. However, managed, sustainable use has the potential to forestall extinctions, aid recovery, and meet human needs. We analyzed species-level data for 30,923 species from 13 taxonomic groups on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species to investigate patterns of intentional biological resource use. Forty percent of species (10,098 of 25,009 species from 10 data-sufficient taxonomic groups) were used. The main purposes of use were pets, display animals, horticulture, and human consumption. Intentional use is currently contributing to elevated extinction risk for 28-29% of threatened or near threatened (NT) species (2752-2848 of 9753 species). Intentional use also affected 16% of all species used (1597-1631 of 10,098). However, 72% of used species (7291 of 10,098) were least concern, of which nearly half (3469) also had stable or improving population trends. The remainder were not documented as threatened by biological resource use, including at least 172 threatened or NT species with stable or improving populations. About one-third of species that had use documented as a threat had no targeted species management actions to directly address this threat. To improve use-related red-list data, we suggest small amendments to the relevant classification schemes and required supporting documentation. Our findings on the prevalence of sustainable and unsustainable use, and variation across taxa, can inform international policy making, including the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species.

The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation?

There have been five Mass Extinction events in the history of Earth's biodiversity, all caused by dramatic but natural phenomena. It has been claimed that the Sixth Mass Extinction may be underway, this time caused entirely by humans. Although considerable evidence indicates that there is a biodiversity crisis of increasing extinctions and plummeting abundances, some do not accept that this amounts to a Sixth Mass Extinction. Often, they use the IUCN Red List to support their stance, arguing that the rate of species loss does not differ from the background rate. However, the Red List is heavily biased: almost all birds and mammals but only a minute fraction of invertebrates have been evaluated against conservation criteria. Incorporating estimates of the true number of invertebrate extinctions leads to the conclusion that the rate vastly exceeds the background rate and that we may indeed be witnessing the start of the Sixth Mass Extinction. As an example, we focus on molluscs, the second largest phylum in numbers of known species, and, extrapolating boldly, estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5-13% (150,000-260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List. We review differences in extinction rates according to realms: marine species face significant threats but, although previous mass extinctions were largely defined by marine invertebrates, there is no evidence that the marine biota has reached the same crisis as the non-marine biota. Island species have suffered far greater rates than continental ones. Plants face similar conservation biases as do invertebrates, although there are hints they may have suffered lower extinction rates. There are also those who do not deny an extinction crisis but accept it as a new trajectory of evolution, because humans are part of the natural world; some even embrace it, with a desire to manipulate it for human benefit. We take issue with these stances. Humans are the only species able to manipulate the Earth on a grand scale, and they have allowed the current crisis to happen. Despite multiple conservation initiatives at various levels, most are not species oriented (certain charismatic vertebrates excepted) and specific actions to protect every living species individually are simply unfeasible because of the tyranny of numbers. As systematic biologists, we encourage the nurturing of the innate human appreciation of biodiversity, but we reaffirm the message that the biodiversity that makes our world so fascinating, beautiful and functional is vanishing unnoticed at an unprecedented rate. In the face of a mounting crisis, scientists must adopt the practices of preventive archaeology, and collect and document as many species as possible before they disappear. All this depends on reviving the venerable study of natural history and taxonomy. Denying the crisis, simply accepting it and doing nothing, or even embracing it for the ostensible benefit of humanity, are not appropriate options and pave the way for the Earth to continue on its sad trajectory towards a Sixth Mass Extinction.

Conservation-Status Gaps for Marine Top-Fished Commercial Species

Biodiversity loss is a global problem, accelerated by human-induced pressures. In the marine realm, one of the major threats to species conservation, together with climate change, is overfishing. In this context, having information on the conservation status of target commercial marine fish species becomes crucial for assuring safe standards. We put together fisheries statistics from the FAO, the IUCN Red List, FishBase, and RAM Legacy databases to understand to what extent top commercial species’ conservation status has been assessed. Levels of assessment for top-fished species were higher than those for general commercial or highly commercial species, but almost half of the species have outdated assessments. We found no relation between IUCN Red List traits and FishBase Vulnerability Index, depreciating the latter value as a guidance for extinction threat. The RAM database suggests good management of more-threatened species in recent decades, but more data are required to assess whether the trend has reverted in recent years. Outdated IUCN Red List assessments can benefit from reputed stock assessments for new reassessments. The future of IUCN Red List evaluations for commercial fish species relies on integrating new parameters from fisheries sources and improved collaboration with fisheries stakeholders and managers.

Testing a global standard for quantifying species recovery and assessing conservation impact

Recognizing the imperative to evaluate species recovery and conservation impact, in 2012 the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) called for development of a "Green List of Species" (now the IUCN Green Status of Species). A draft Green Status framework for assessing species' progress toward recovery, published in 2018, proposed 2 separate but interlinked components: a standardized method (i.e., measurement against benchmarks of species' viability, functionality, and preimpact distribution) to determine current species recovery status (herein species recovery score) and application of that method to estimate past and potential future impacts of conservation based on 4 metrics (conservation legacy, conservation dependence, conservation gain, and recovery potential). We tested the framework with 181 species representing diverse taxa, life histories, biomes, and IUCN Red List categories (extinction risk). Based on the observed distribution of species' recovery scores, we propose the following species recovery categories: fully recovered, slightly depleted, moderately depleted, largely depleted, critically depleted, extinct in the wild, and indeterminate. Fifty-nine percent of tested species were considered largely or critically depleted. Although there was a negative relationship between extinction risk and species recovery score, variation was considerable. Some species in lower risk categories were assessed as farther from recovery than those at higher risk. This emphasizes that species recovery is conceptually different from extinction risk and reinforces the utility of the IUCN Green Status of Species to more fully understand species conservation status. Although extinction risk did not predict conservation legacy, conservation dependence, or conservation gain, it was positively correlated with recovery potential. Only 1.7% of tested species were categorized as zero across all 4 of these conservation impact metrics, indicating that conservation has, or will, play a role in improving or maintaining species status for the vast majority of these species. Based on our results, we devised an updated assessment framework that introduces the option of using a dynamic baseline to assess future impacts of conservation over the short term to avoid misleading results which were generated in a small number of cases, and redefines short term as 10 years to better align with conservation planning. These changes are reflected in the IUCN Green Status of Species Standard.

Identifying the possibilities and pitfalls of conducting IUCN Red List assessments from remotely sensed habitat information based on insights from poorly known Cuban mammals

The International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Threatened Species (RLS) is the key global tool for objective, repeatable assessment of species' extinction risk status, and plays an essential role in tracking biodiversity loss and guiding conservation action. Satellite remote sensing (SRS) data sets on global ecosystem distributions and functioning show exciting potential for informing range-based RLS assessment, but their incorporation has been restricted by low temporal resolution and coverage of data sets, lack of incorporation of degradation-driven habitat loss, and noninclusion of assumptions related to identification of changing habitat distributions for taxa with varying habitat dependency and ecologies. For poorly known mangrove-associated Cuban hutias (Mesocapromys spp.), we tested the impact of possible assumptions regarding these issues on range-based RLS assessment outcomes. Specifically, we used annual (1985-2018) Landsat data and land-cover classification and habitat degradation analyses across different internal time series slices to simulate range-based RLS assessments for our case study taxa to explore potential assessment uncertainty arising from temporal SRS data set coverage, incorporating proxies of (change in) habitat quality, and assumptions on spatial scaling of habitat extent for RLS parameter generation. We found extensive variation in simulated species-specific range-based RLS assessments, and this variation was mostly associated with the time series over which parameters were estimated. However, results of some species-specific assessments differed by up to 3 categories (near threatened to critically endangered) within the same time series, due to the effects of incorporating habitat quality and the spatial scaling used in RLS parameter estimation. Our results showed that a one-size-fits-all approach to incorporating SRS information in RLS assessment is inappropriate, and we urge caution in conducting range-based assessments with SRS for species for which habitat dependence on specific ecosystem types is incompletely understood. We propose novel revisions to parameter spatial scaling guidelines to improve integration of existing time series data on ecosystem change into the RLS assessment process.

The demographic history of Madagascan micro-endemics: have rare species always been rare?

Extinction has increased as human activities impact ecosystems, yet relatively few species have conservation assessments. Novel approaches are needed to highlight threatened species that are currently data-deficient. Many Madagascan plant species have extremely narrow ranges, but this may not have always been the case-it is unclear how the island's diverse flora evolved. To assess this, we generated restriction-site associated DNA sequence data for 10 Madagascan plant species, estimated effective population size (Ne) for each species and compared this to census (Nc) sizes. In each case, Ne was an order of magnitude larger than Nc-signifying rapid, recent population decline. We then estimated species' demographic history, tracking changes in Ne over time. We show that it is possible to predict extinction risk, particularly in the most threatened species. Furthermore, simulations showed that our approach has the power to detect population decline during the Anthropocene. Our analyses reveal that Madagascar's micro-endemics were not always rare, having experienced a rapid decline in their recent history. This casts further uncertainty over the processes that generated Madagascar's exceptional biodiversity. Our approach targets data-deficient species in need of conservation assessment, particularly in regions where human modification of the environment has been rapid.

Knowledge Gaps in the Definition of Threats for the Red List Assessment of European Freshwater-Dependent Fish Species

Simple Summary

This study aims to understand if the threats to freshwater-dependent species identified by The International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species are correctly supported by valid literature. The results show that 99% of threats are not supported by validated published scientific knowledge. This may lead to ineffective conservation and management plans. Funding to study and fill baseline knowledge gaps about threats should be a priority.

Abstract

Freshwater ecosystems are disproportionally important for biodiversity conservation, as they support more than 9% of known animal species while representing less than 1% of the Earth’s surface. However, the vast majority of the threats (99%, or 826 out of 837) identified by the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List of Threatened Species known to affect the 434 known freshwater-dependent fish and lampreys of Europe are not supported by validated published scientific knowledge. This general lack of information about freshwater-dependent fish and lamprey species may have deleterious effects on species conservation, and additional funding is required to fill baseline knowledge gaps.

Automated conservation assessment of the orchid family with deep learning

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments are essential for prioritizing conservation needs but are resource intensive and therefore available only for a fraction of global species richness. Automated conservation assessments based on digitally available geographic occurrence records can be a rapid alternative, but it is unclear how reliable these assessments are. We conducted automated conservation assessments for 13,910 species (47.3% of the known species in the family) of the diverse and globally distributed orchid family (Orchidaceae), for which most species (13,049) were previously unassessed by IUCN. We used a novel method based on a deep neural network (IUC-NN). We identified 4,342 orchid species (31.2% of the evaluated species) as possibly threatened with extinction (equivalent to IUCN categories critically endangered [CR], endangered [EN], or vulnerable [VU]) and Madagascar, East Africa, Southeast Asia, and several oceanic islands as priority areas for orchid conservation. Orchidaceae provided a model with which to test the sensitivity of automated assessment methods to problems with data availability, data quality, and geographic sampling bias. The IUC-NN identified possibly threatened species with an accuracy of 84.3%, with significantly lower geographic evaluation bias relative to the IUCN Red List and was robust even when data availability was low and there were geographic errors in the input data. Overall, our results demonstrate that automated assessments have an important role to play in identifying species at the greatest risk of extinction.

Red List assessment of amphibian species of Ecuador: A multidimensional approach for their conservation

Ecuador is one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, but faces severe pressures and threats to its natural ecosystems. Numerous species have declined and require to be objectively evaluated and quantified, as a step towards the development of conservation strategies. Herein, we present an updated National Red List Assessment for amphibian species of Ecuador, with one of the most detailed and complete coverages for any Ecuadorian taxonomic group to date. Based on standardized methodologies that integrate taxonomic work, spatial analyses, and ecological niche modeling, we assessed the extinction risk and identified the main threats for all Ecuadorian native amphibians (635 species), using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Our evaluation reveals that 57% (363 species) are categorized as Threatened, 12% (78 species) as Near Threatened, 4% (26 species) as Data Deficient, and 27% (168 species) as Least Concern. Our assessment almost doubles the number of threatened species in comparison with previous evaluations. In addition to habitat loss, the expansion of the agricultural/cattle raising frontier and other anthropogenic threats (roads, human settlements, and mining/oil activities) amplify the incidence of other pressures as relevant predictors of ecological integrity. Potential synergic effects with climate change and emergent diseases (apparently responsible for the sudden declines), had particular importance amongst the threats sustained by Ecuadorian amphibians. Most threatened species are distributed in montane forests and paramo habitats of the Andes, with nearly 10% of them occurring outside the National System of Protected Areas of the Ecuadorian government. Based on our results, we recommend the following actions: (i) An increase of the National System of Protected Areas to include threatened species. (ii) Supporting the ex/in-situ conservation programs to protect species considered like Critically Endangered and Endangered. (iii) Focalizing research efforts towards the description of new species, as well as species currently categorized as Data Deficient (DD) that may turn out to be threatened. The implementation of the described actions is challenging, but urgent, given the current conservation crisis faced by amphibians.

Extinction Risk Assessment of the Greek Endemic Flora

Simple Summary

This study assesses for the first time all the vascular endemic plant taxa of Greece, according to their decline and rarity. Phylogenetic analysis and its spatial overview highlight areas for conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen of them need to be prioritized, due to their evolutionary distinctiveness. This assessment could act as the baseline and supporting tool for conservation actions, decision- and policy-making for biodiversity, while highlighting the need for a new Red Data Book for the Greek flora.

Abstract

Human-induced biodiversity decline has been on the rise for the past 250 years, due to various causes. What is equally troubling, is that we are unaware which plants are threatened and where they occur. Thus, we are far from reaching Aichi Biodiversity Target 2, i.e., assessing the extinction risk of most species. To that end, based on an extensive occurrence dataset, we performed an extinction risk assessment according to the IUCN Criteria A and B for all the endemic plant taxa occurring in Greece, one of the most biodiverse countries in Europe, in a phylogenetically-informed framework and identified the areas needing conservation prioritization. Several of the Greek endemics are threatened with extinction and fourteen endemics need to be prioritized, as they are evolutionary distinct and globally endangered. Mt. Gramos is identified as the most important conservation hotspot in Greece. However, a significant portion of the identified conservation hotspots is not included in any designated Greek protected area, meaning that the Greek protected areas network might need to be at least partially redesigned. In the Anthropocene era, where climate and land-use change are projected to alter biodiversity patterns and may force many species to extinction, our assessment provides the baseline for future conservation research, ecosystem services maintenance, and might prove crucial for the timely, systematic and effective aversion of plant extinctions in Greece.

Status and consolidated list of threatened medicinal plants of India

A wide array of medicinal plants in India, primarily used by locals for health care, have found wide acceptance and adoption globally (either directly or processed) due to distinct advantages of good results, low or no side-effects and ease of access to general public. Indigenous and traditional systems of medicine in practice since historical times have shown potential (direct or indirect as immune-boosters) against many dreaded ailments including the recent global pandemic of COVID-19. With prediction of sixth mass extinction, there is worldwide concern as majority of these plants, collected from natural stands, are also facing threat of extinction. Since 1990s concerted efforts have been directed towards assessment of threat status, the basic requirement for prioritizing conservation activity to various species of plants and animals. In literature there is staggered information regarding list of threatened plants, including medicinal plants of India, compiled at either state level or national or international level. Analysis of these publications led to collation of a consolidated list of 84 species and the same is presented here. A brief account of conservation efforts in India at national level and supportive policy framework is also included. This compilation is aimed to serve as a comprehensive reference especially for beginners, researchers, conservationists, foresters, pharmaceutical professionals as well as policy makers.

Effects of land-use change and related pressures on alien and native subsets of island communities

Island species and habitats are particularly vulnerable to human disturbances, and anthropogenic changes are increasingly overwriting natural island biogeographic patterns. However, quantitative comparisons of how native and alien assemblages respond to human disturbances are scarce. Using data from 6,242 species of vertebrates, invertebrates and plants, from 7,718 sites on 81 islands, we model how land-use change, human population density and distance to the nearest road affect local assemblages of alien and native species on islands. We found that land-use change reduces both richness and abundance of native species, whereas the number and abundance of alien species are high in plantation forests and agricultural or urban sites. In contrast to the long-established pattern for native species (i.e., decline in species number with island isolation), more isolated islands have more alien species across most land uses than do less isolated islands. We show that alien species play a major role in the turnover of island assemblages: our models show that aliens outnumber natives among the species present at disturbed sites but absent from minimally-disturbed primary vegetation. Finally, we found a homogenization pattern for both native and alien assemblages across sites within most land uses. The declines of native species on islands in the face of human pressures, and the particular proneness to invasions of the more remote islands, highlight the need to reduce the intensity of human pressures on islands and to prevent the introduction and establishment of alien species.

Assessing ecological function in the context of species recovery

Species interactions matter to conservation. Setting an ambitious recovery target for a species requires considering the size, density, and demographic structure of its populations such that they fulfill the interactions, roles, and functions of the species in the ecosystems in which they are embedded. A recently proposed framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature Green List of Species formalizes this requirement by defining a fully recovered species in terms of representation, viability, and functionality. Defining and quantifying ecological function from the viewpoint of species recovery is challenging in concept and application, but also an opportunity to insert ecological theory into conservation practice. We propose 2 complementary approaches to assessing a species' ecological functions: confirmation (listing interactions of the species, identifying ecological processes and other species involved in these interactions, and quantifying the extent to which the species contributes to the identified ecological process) and elimination (inferring functionality by ruling out symptoms of reduced functionality, analogous to the red-list approach that focuses on symptoms of reduced viability). Despite the challenges, incorporation of functionality into species recovery planning is possible in most cases and it is essential to a conservation vision that goes beyond preventing extinctions and aims to restore a species to levels beyond what is required for its viability. This vision focuses on conservation and recovery at the species level and sees species as embedded in ecosystems, influencing and being influenced by the processes in those ecosystems. Thus, it connects and integrates conservation at the species and ecosystem levels.

On impact and volcanism across the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary

The cause of the end-Cretaceous mass extinction is vigorously debated, owing to the occurrence of a very large bolide impact and flood basalt volcanism near the boundary. Disentangling their relative importance is complicated by uncertainty regarding kill mechanisms and the relative timing of volcanogenic outgassing, impact, and extinction. We used carbon cycle modeling and paleotemperature records to constrain the timing of volcanogenic outgassing. We found support for major outgassing beginning and ending distinctly before the impact, with only the impact coinciding with mass extinction and biologically amplified carbon cycle change. Our models show that these extinction-related carbon cycle changes would have allowed the ocean to absorb massive amounts of carbon dioxide, thus limiting the global warming otherwise expected from postextinction volcanism.

A Preliminary Evaluation of The Karst Flora of Brazil Using Collections Data

Karst is defined as landscapes that are underlain by soluble rock in which there is appreciable water movement arising from a combination of high rock solubility and well-developed secondary (fracture) porosity. Karsts occupy approximately 20% of the planet’s dry ice-free land and are of great socioeconomic importance, as they supply water to up to 25% of the world’s population and represent landscapes of cultural and touristic importance. In Southeast Asia karst is associated with high species-richness and endemism in plants and seen as priority areas for the conservation of biodiversity. There has been little research into the floras associated with karst in South America, most of which occurs in Brazil. We therefore sought to evaluate the importance of Brazilian karst with respect to its species-richness and endemism. We sought to do so using curated plant specimen data in the Botanical Information and Ecology Network (BIEN) dataset. We show that, except for Amazonia, the BIEN dataset is representative of the Brazilian flora with respect to the total number of species and overall patterns of species richness. We found that karst is under-sampled, as is the case for much of Brazil. We also found that whilst karst represent an important source of plant diversity for Brazil, including populations of approximately 1/3 of the Brazilian flora, it is not significantly more species-rich or richer in small-range and endemic species than surrounding landscapes. Similarly, whilst important for conservation, comprising populations of 26.5–37.4% of all Brazilian species evaluated as of conservation concern by International Union for Nature Conservation (IUCN), karst is no more so than the surrounding areas. Whilst experimental error, including map resolution and the precision and accuracy of point data may have under-estimated the species-richness of Brazilian karst, it likely represents an important biodiversity resource for Brazil and one that can play a valuable role in conservation. Our findings are in sharp contrast to those for Southeast Asia where karst represents a more important source of species-richness and endemism. We also show that although BIEN represents a comprehensive and curated source of point data, discrepancies in the application of names compared to current more comprehensive taxonomic backbones, can have profound impacts on estimates of species-richness, distribution ranges and estimates of endemism.

Assessing the global conservation status of the rock rose Helianthemum caput-felis

The assessment of the conservation status of a species is the first step in developing a conservation strategy. IUCN Red Lists assessments are an important starting point for conservation actions and the most commonly applied method for assessing the extinction risk of a species. In this study, the global conservation status of the rock rose Helianthemum caput-felis Boiss. (Cistaceae), a perennial Mediterranean plant, was evaluated using the Red List criteria. The distribution of the species was determined by monitoring historical localities and all other suitable sites along the western Mediterranean coasts for 6 years. For each confirmed locality, the ecological and population parameters and the main threats were recorded; these data were used in a quantitative analysis of the species' extinction risk. Our findings indicate there have been several recent extinctions, and there is a continuing decline in the species' area of occurrence, habitat quality and number of reproductive plants. The main threats are related to human activities. Extinction models indicate a probability of quasi-extinction risk of c. 30% in five generations or c. 45% in three generations, with the species likely to become extinct in seven currently known localities within the next 10 years. Application of the Red List criteria indicates H. caput-felis should be categorized as Endangered. This study confirms that legal protection and passive conservation measures are insufficient to guarantee the persistence of a plant species. Active conservation and management actions are needed to protect this and other threatened species of the Mediterranean Basin.

Ecological and Conservation Correlates of Rarity in New World Pitvipers

Rare species tend to be especially sensitive to habitat disturbance, making them important conservation targets. Thus, rarity patterns might be an important guide to conservation efforts. Rabinowitz’s approach defines rarity using a combination of geographical range, habitat specificity, and local abundance, and is frequently used in conservation prioritization. Herein, we use Rabinowitz’s approach to classify the New World (NW) pitvipers (family Viperidae) regarding rarity. We tested whether body size and latitude could predict rarity, and we compared rarity patterns with extinction risk assessments and other prioritization methods in order to detect rare species not classified as threatened or prioritized. Most NW pitvipers have large geographical ranges, high local abundances, and narrow habitat breadths. There are 11.8% of NW pitviper species in the rarest category and they occur along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in southern Central America, in the Andean region of Ecuador, and in eastern Brazil. Rarity in NW pitvipers is inversely related to latitude but is not related to body size. Our results indicate that additional species of NW pitvipers are threatened and/or should be prioritized for conservation. Combining complementary approaches to detect rare and threatened species may substantially improve our knowledge on the conservation needs of NW pitvipers.

Measuring Terrestrial Area of Habitat (AOH) and Its Utility for the IUCN Red List

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species includes assessment of extinction risk for 98 512 species, plus documentation of their range, habitat, elevation, and other factors. These range, habitat and elevation data can be matched with terrestrial land cover and elevation datasets to map the species' area of habitat (AOH; also known as extent of suitable habitat; ESH). This differs from the two spatial metrics used for assessing extinction risk in the IUCN Red List criteria: extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). AOH can guide conservation, for example, through targeting areas for field surveys, assessing proportions of species' habitat within protected areas, and monitoring habitat loss and fragmentation. We recommend that IUCN Red List assessments document AOH wherever practical.

Climate and land-use change homogenise terrestrial biodiversity, with consequences for ecosystem functioning and human well-being

Biodiversity continues to decline under the effect of multiple human pressures. We give a brief overview of the main pressures on biodiversity, before focusing on the two that have a predominant effect: land-use and climate change. We discuss how interactions between land-use and climate change in terrestrial systems are likely to have greater impacts than expected when only considering these pressures in isolation. Understanding biodiversity changes is complicated by the fact that such changes are likely to be uneven among different geographic regions and species. We review the evidence for variation in terrestrial biodiversity changes, relating differences among species to key ecological characteristics, and explaining how disproportionate impacts on certain species are leading to a spatial homogenisation of ecological communities. Finally, we explain how the overall losses and homogenisation of biodiversity, and the larger impacts upon certain types of species, are likely to lead to strong negative consequences for the functioning of ecosystems, and consequently for human well-being.

The macroecology and macroevolution of plant species at risk

Contents Summary 708 I. Introduction 708 II. Fossils and phylogenies: learning from our past 708 III. Threatened species and Red Lists 710 IV. The geography of threat 710 V. The taxonomy of threat 710 VI. Predicting species at risk 711 VII. Conclusion 711 Acknowledgements 712 References 712 SUMMARY: Current rates of extinction are unprecedented in human history. The fossil record and newer molecular phylogenies illuminate historical patterns of speciation and extinction. They reveal both spectacular radiations and the characteristic features of mass extinction events in our geological past. The IUCN Red List provides insight into present-day species declines. There is emerging synthesis that species at risk are nonrandomly distributed across space and phylogeny. This pattern may be explained by geographical variation in driver intensity and species differential sensitivities. However, traits that confer resistance to one global change driver may increase susceptibility to a different driver. A complete understanding of extinction risk requires consideration of the interaction between extinction drivers, ecological traits, and species' evolutionary histories.

Widespread winners and narrow-ranged losers: Land use homogenizes biodiversity in local assemblages worldwide

Human use of the land (for agriculture and settlements) has a substantial negative effect on biodiversity globally. However, not all species are adversely affected by land use, and indeed, some benefit from the creation of novel habitat. Geographically rare species may be more negatively affected by land use than widespread species, but data limitations have so far prevented global multi-clade assessments of land-use effects on narrow-ranged and widespread species. We analyse a large, global database to show consistent differences in assemblage composition. Compared with natural habitat, assemblages in disturbed habitats have more widespread species on average, especially in urban areas and the tropics. All else being equal, this result means that human land use is homogenizing assemblage composition across space. Disturbed habitats show both reduced abundances of narrow-ranged species and increased abundances of widespread species. Our results are very important for biodiversity conservation because narrow-ranged species are typically at higher risk of extinction than widespread species. Furthermore, the shift to more widespread species may also affect ecosystem functioning by reducing both the contribution of rare species and the diversity of species’ responses to environmental changes among local assemblages.

Previous studies have shown that human use of the land, mainly for agriculture and settlements, causes a detectable but relatively small net loss of biodiversity. However, not all species are affected equally, and some species even benefit from the new habitats we create. One group of species of particular concern for biodiversity conservation are those that inhabit only a small area. These narrow-ranged species are at higher risk of extinction because it is more likely that any threats to the species (including human land use) will affect their entire range. Such species can also play a unique role in the healthy functioning of ecosystems. Here, we show that the observed small declines in biodiversity in human-disturbed land can be broken down into large declines in narrow-ranged species, offset by increases in wide-ranged species. All else being equal, this finding means that ecological communities are losing their distinctive, narrow-ranged species and are becoming dominated by the same species everywhere, leading to a reduction in global biodiversity. The divergent effects of human land use on narrow-ranged and widespread species are important for the conservation of already threatened, narrow-ranged species and may lead to a negative effect on the functioning of ecosystems.

Refining area of occupancy to address the modifiable areal unit problem in ecology and conservation

The modifiable areal unit problem is prevalent across many aspects of spatial analysis within ecology and conservation. The problem is particularly manifested when calculating metrics for extinction risk estimation, for example, area of occupancy (AOO). Although embedded in the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria, AOO is often not used or is poorly applied. We evaluated new and existing methods for calculating AOO from occurrence records and devised a method for determining the minimum AOO with a uniform grid. We evaluated the grid cell shape, origin, and rotation with real-world and simulated data and reviewed the effects on AOO values and possible impacts for species already assessed on the IUCN Red List. The AOO varied by up to 80%, and a ratio of cells to points of 1:1.21 yielded the maximum variation in the number of occupied cells. These findings potentially impact 3% of existing species on the IUCN Red List and species not yet assessed. Our new method combined grid rotation and moving grid origin and gave fast, robust, and reproducible results and, in the majority of cases, achieved the minimum AOO. As well as determining minimum AOO, our method yielded a confidence interval that should be incorporated into existing tools that support species risk assessment. We recommend when recording AOO and other areal measurements that the methods; summary statistics across multiple iterations; angle and origin of the minimum grid; map projection; and datum be recorded, this will lead to more robust species risk assessments.

Brazilian efforts towards achieving a comprehensive extinction risk assessment for its known flora

Abstract Brazil houses nearly 36,400 native terrestrial plant species. The country is a signatory of the Global Strategy for Plant Conservation (GSPC) and has to develop tools to achieve GSPC targets. Target 2 states that countries must undertake risk assessments of its entire known plant species by 2020. Here, we offer a panorama on how far has Brazil gone towards achieving this target. We compiled data on all risk assessments for plant species ever made in the country and produced the first synthesis of results with respect to these assessments. We found that the Brazilian Red List Authority for plants has assessed the extinction risk of 5,646 species so far, which corresponds to 15.5% of all known flora in Brazil. Among these species, 2,738 (48%) are currently threatened. Those species are distributed across all Brazilian Biomes and states. Families with the highest number of threatened species are Asteraceae and Bromeliaceae. We conclude that Brazil is far from achieving GSPC target 2 by 2020. However, given the enormous flora of the country and the huge amount of effort and resources put into this particular task, Brazil is following a good path towards a reliable assessment of it entire flora.

The use and misuse of herbarium specimens in evaluating plant extinction risks

Herbarium specimens provide verifiable and citable evidence of the occurrence of particular plants at particular points in space and time, and are vital resources for assessing extinction risk in the tropics, where plant diversity and threats to plants are greatest. We reviewed approaches to assessing extinction risk in response to the Convention on Biological Diversity's Global Strategy for Plant Conservation Target 2: an assessment of the conservation status of all known plant species by 2020. We tested five alternative approaches, using herbarium-derived data for trees, shrubs and herbs in five different plant groups from temperate and tropical regions. All species were previously fully assessed for the IUCN Red List. We found significant variation in the accuracy with which different approaches classified species as threatened or not threatened. Accuracy was highest for the machine learning model (90%) but the least data-intensive approach also performed well (82%). Despite concerns about spatial, temporal and taxonomic biases and uncertainties in herbarium data, when specimens represent the best available evidence for particular species, their use as a basis for extinction risk assessment is appropriate, necessary and urgent. Resourcing herbaria to maintain, increase and disseminate their specimen data is essential to guide and focus conservation action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.

A reassessment of the extinction risk of the Critically Endangered Oxapampa poison frog Ameerega planipaleae (Dendrobatidae)

Assessments of extinction risk are required to inform conservation action, but the usefulness of assessments is undermined if they are not current. Ameerega planipaleae, a poison frog endemic to the cloud forests of central Peru, was last assessed in 2004. We therefore sought to provide updated data to inform the reassessment of this species. Based on our findings, we recommend that this frog remain categorized as Critically Endangered, but under modified criteria, and that conservation actions are taken to reduce the pressures of local threats, especially the overuse of agrochemicals.

A process for assessing and prioritizing species conservation needs: going beyond the Red List

Conservation resources are limited, yet an increasing number of species are under threat. Assessing species for their conservation needs is, therefore, a vital first step in identifying and prioritizing species for both ex situ and in situ conservation actions. Using a transparent, logical and objective method, the Conservation Needs Assessment process developed by Amphibian Ark uses current knowledge of species in the wild to determine those with the most pressing conservation needs, and provides a foundation for the development of holistic conservation action plans that combine in situ and ex situ actions as appropriate. These assessments allow us to maximize the impact of limited conservation resources by identifying which measures could best serve those species requiring help. The Conservation Needs Assessment complements the IUCN Red List assessment, and together they provide a more holistic guide to conservation priorities and actions. Conservation Needs Assessments generate national prioritized lists of species recommended for conservation action. These can subsequently be used to assist in the development of species recovery plans and national action plans, or to inform national conservation priorities better. Additional tools that will evaluate the recommendations for ex situ rescues, to determine the best candidates for conservation breeding programmes, are currently under development.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats).

Pattern, process, inference and prediction in extinction biology

Extinction is a key feature of the evolutionary history of life, and assessments of extinction risk are essential for the effective protection of biodiversity. The goal in assembling this special issue of Biology Letters was to highlight problems and questions at the research frontier of extinction biology, with an emphasis on recent developments in the methodology of inferring the patterns and processes of extinction from a background of often noisy and sparse data. In selecting topics, we sought to illustrate how extinction is not simply a self-evident phenomenon, but the subject of a dynamic and quantitatively rigorous field of natural science, with practical applications to conservation.