Global habitat suitability models of terrestrial mammals

Combining camera trap surveys and IUCN range maps to improve knowledge of species distributions

Reliable maps of species distributions are fundamental for biodiversity research and conservation. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) range maps are widely recognized as authoritative representations of species' geographic limits, yet they might not always align with actual occurrence data. In recent area of habitat (AOH) maps, areas that are not habitat have been removed from IUCN ranges to reduce commission errors, but their concordance with actual species occurrence also remains untested. We tested concordance between occurrences recorded in camera trap surveys and predicted occurrences from the IUCN and AOH maps for 510 medium- to large-bodied mammalian species in 80 camera trap sampling areas. Across all areas, cameras detected only 39% of species expected to occur based on IUCN ranges and AOH maps; 85% of the IUCN only mismatches occurred within 200 km of range edges. Only 4% of species occurrences were detected by cameras outside IUCN ranges. The probability of mismatches between cameras and the IUCN range was significantly higher for smaller-bodied mammals and habitat specialists in the Neotropics and Indomalaya and in areas with shorter canopy forests. Our findings suggest that range and AOH maps rarely underrepresent areas where species occur, but they may more often overrepresent ranges by including areas where a species may be absent, particularly at range edges. We suggest that combining range maps with data from ground-based biodiversity sensors, such as camera traps, provides a richer knowledge base for conservation mapping and planning.

Early-stage loss of ecological integrity drives the risk of zoonotic disease emergence

Anthropogenic pressures have increasingly disrupted the integrity of ecosystems worldwide, jeopardizing their capacity to provide essential contributions to human well-being. Recently, the role of natural ecosystems in reducing disease emergence risk has gained prominence in decision-making processes, as scientific evidence indicates that human-driven pressure, such as habitat destruction and deforestation, can trigger the emergence of zoonotic infectious diseases. However, the intricate relationship between biodiversity and emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) remains only partially understood. Here, we updated the most comprehensive zoonotic EID event database with the latest reported events to analyse the relationship between EIDs of wildlife origin (zoonoses) and various facets of ecological integrity. We found EID risk was strongly predicted by structural integrity metrics such as human footprint and ecoregion intactness, in addition to environmental variables such as tropical rainforest density and mammal species richness. EID events were more likely to occur in areas with intermediate levels of compositional and structural integrity, underscoring the risk posed by human encroachment into pristine, undisturbed lands. Our study highlights the need to identify novel indicators and targets that can effectively address EID risk alongside other pressing global challenges in sustainable development, ultimately informing strategies for preserving both human and environmental health.

A cost-effective approach to identify conservation priority for 30 × 30 biodiversity target on the premise of food security

There is a growing consensus on expanding protected and conserved areas for biodiversity conservation. Nevertheless, it remains uncertain where to expand conserved areas as well as what appropriate management modalities to choose. Moreover, conserved areas expansion should be balanced with crop-related food security challenges. We developed a framework to identify cost-effective areas for expanding protected areas and other effective area-based conservation measures (OECMs), and applied it to China. By combining templates for biodiversity conservation priorities at global scale and the priority conservation areas based on 2413 vertebrates' extinction risk in China, we identified areas with high biodiversity conservation value. We then categorized the priority areas according to human impact, indicating the potential cost of management. As a result of combining the two aspects above, we identified the most cost-effective areas for expanding protected areas and OECMs while excluding both the current and predicted croplands that can be used for food security. The results show that China could expand its protected areas to 22.81 % of the country's land area and establish OECMs in areas accounting for 9.82 % and 17.37 % of the country's land area in a cost-effective approach in two scenarios. In the ambitious scenario, protected and conserved areas would account for a maximum of 40.18 % of terrestrial area, with an average 62.67 % coverage of the 2413 species' suitable habitat. To achieve the goals of protected and conserved areas in Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, countries could apply this framework to identify their protected areas and OECM expansion priorities.

Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Biodiversity responses to agricultural practices in cropland and natural habitats

Largely driven by agricultural pressures, biodiversity has experienced great changes globally. Exploring biodiversity responses to agricultural practices associated with agricultural intensification can benefit biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes. However, the effects of agricultural practices may also extend to natural habitats. Moreover, agricultural impacts may also vary with geographical region. We analyze biodiversity responses to landscape cropland coverage, cropping frequency, fertiliser and yield, among different land-use types and across geographical regions. We find that species richness and total abundance generally respond negatively to increased landscape cropland coverage. Biodiversity reductions in human land-use types (pasture, plantation forest and cropland) were stronger in tropical than non-tropical regions, which was also true for biodiversity reductions with increasing yield in both human and natural land-use types. Our results underline substantial biodiversity responses to agricultural practices not only in cropland but also in natural habitats, highlighting the fact that biodiversity conservation demands a greater focus on optimizing agricultural management at the landscape scale.

Over 1/4 of China's terrestrial area significantly contributed both to biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality, requiring protection

Protected areas (PAs) play a crucial role in halting biodiversity loss and mitigating climate change. However, research on the advantages of integrating biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation within PAs remains limited, and there is a deficiency in holistic, scientifically supported management strategies. To address these gaps, we conducted a case study in China, comparing the conservation effectiveness of designating conservation priorities considering either single or multiple objectives, including biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality. The results showed that integrating multiple values could truly increase the effectiveness of PAs compared to a single value considered. Over 1/4 of China's terrestrial area had a significant contribution for both biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality, yet remained unprotected. Expanding PAs in these areas holds tremendous win-win biodiversity conservation and carbon neutrality opportunity. We delineated different conservation priorities for comprehensive management and outlined strategies for different types of areas. The framework presented in this study can serve as a reference for other places with comparable scales or management objectives.

Relocating built-up land for biodiversity conservation in an uncertain future

Land use changes associated with habitat loss, fragmentation, and degradation exert profoundly detrimental impacts on biodiversity conservation. Urban development is one of the prevailing anthropogenic disturbances to wildlife habitat, because these developments are often considered permanent and irreversible. As a result, the potential benefits of built-up land relocation for biodiversity conservation have remained largely unexplored in environmental management practices. Here, we analyze recent built-up land relocation in Shanghai and explore how such restoration programs can affect future land change trajectories with regards to biodiversity conservation. Results show that 187.78 km2 built-up land in Shanghai was restored to natural habitat between 2017 and 2020. Further simulation analysis highlights that relocating built-up land can substantially promote conserve biodiversity. In particular, there would be less habitat loss, better natural habitat quality and more species habitat-suitable range under the scenarios with built-up land relocation. Species extinction assessment suggest that amphibians, mammals, and reptiles will all have an increasingly high extinction risk without built-up land relocation. However, there will even be a marginal decrease in extinction risk over time for mammals and reptiles if the relocation of built-up land is permitted, but still a moderate increase in extinction risk for amphibians. This study highlights the importance of incorporating rigorous conservation planning prior to development activities, thereby underpinning a sustainable approach to environmental management.

Predicting Suitable Areas for African Swine Fever Outbreaks in Wild Boars in South Korea and Their Implications for Managing High-Risk Pig Farms

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease affecting domestic pigs and wild boars, with no effective vaccine or treatment available. In South Korea, extensive measures have been implemented to prevent ASF transmission between wild boars and ASF spillover from wild boars to pig farm sectors, including the search for ASF-infected carcasses in mountainous forests and the installation of fences across wide areas of these forests. To determine the priority search range for infected carcasses and establish pig farm-centered quarantine measures, it is necessary to predict the specific path of ASF outbreaks in wild boars and identify pig farms at high risk of ASF spillover from wild boars. Here, we aimed to predict suitable areas and geographical paths for ASF outbreaks in wild boars using the MaxEnt model and shortest-path betweenness centrality analysis. The analysis identified a high frequency of ASF outbreaks in areas with a suitability value ≥0.4 on the suitability map and in areas within a 1.8 km range from the path on the shortest-path map, indicating these areas were high-risk zones for ASF outbreaks. Among the 5063 pig farms analyzed, 37 were in the high-risk zone on the suitability map, 499 were in the high-risk zone on the shortest-path map, and 9 were in both risk zones. Of the 51 pig farm sectors with a dense distribution of pig farms (kernel density ≥ 8), 25 sectors were in contact with or partially overlapped the high risk zone on the suitability map, 18 sectors were located within the high risk zone on the shortest-path map, and 14 sectors were located within both risk zones. These findings aided in determining the priority range for searches for wild boar carcasses and enabled the establishment of preemptive ASF prevention measures around the pig farming sectors that are at risk of ASF spillover from wild boars.

Land-use change is associated with multi-century loss of elephant ecosystems in Asia

Understanding historic patterns of land use and land cover change across large temporal and spatial scales is critical for developing effective biodiversity conservation management and policy. We quantify the extent and fragmentation of suitable habitat across the continental range of Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) based on present-day occurrence data and land-use variables between 850 and 2015 A.D. We found that following centuries of relative stability, over 64% (3.36 million km²) of suitable elephant habitat across Asia was lost since the year 1700, coincident with colonial-era land-use practices in South Asia and subsequent agricultural intensification in Southeast Asia. Average patch size dropped 83% from approximately 99,000-16,000 km² and the area occupied by the largest patch decreased 83% from ~ 4 million km² (45% of area) to 54,000 km² (~ 7.5% of area). Whereas 100% of the area within 100 km of the current elephant range could have been considered suitable habitat in the year 1700, over half was unsuitable by 2015, driving potential conflict with people. These losses reflect long-term decline of non-forested ecosystems, exceeding estimates of deforestation within this century. Societies must consider ecological histories in addition to proximate threats to develop more just and sustainable land-use and conservation strategies.

The unequal burden of human-wildlife conflict

Human-wildlife conflict is one of the most pressing sustainable development challenges globally. This is particularly the case where ecologically and economically important wildlife impact the livelihoods of humans. Large carnivores are one such group and their co-occurrence with low-income rural communities often results in real or perceived livestock losses that place increased costs on already impoverished households. Here we show the disparities associated with the vulnerability to conflict arising from large carnivores on cattle (Bos taurus) globally. Across the distribution of 18 large carnivores, we find that the economic vulnerability to predation losses (as measured by impacts to annual per capita income) is between two and eight times higher for households in transitioning and developing economies when compared to developed ones. This potential burden is exacerbated further in developing economies because cattle keepers in these areas produce on average 31% less cattle meat per animal than in developed economies. In the lowest-income areas, our estimates suggest that the loss of a single cow or bull equates to nearly a year and a half of lost calories consumed by a child. Finally, our results show that 82% of carnivore range falls outside protected areas, and five threatened carnivores have over one third of their range located in the most economically sensitive conflict areas. This unequal burden of human-carnivore conflict sheds light on the importance of grappling with multiple and conflicting sustainable development goals: protecting life on land and eliminating poverty and hunger.

A framework for identifying bird conservation priority areas in croplands at national level

Global biodiversity is declining at an unprecedented rate, and the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework requires each country to fulfill the conservation targets in biodiversity-inclusive spatial planning. Croplands provide habitat and food for many species, making them crucial for biodiversity conservation in addition to food production. Assessing conservation priorities in cropland is a prerequisite to allocate conservation resources and plan actions for better conservation outcomes. Yet quantitative methods to assess cropland conservation priority for biodiversity conservation at a national scale are still lacking. We proposed a framework for identifying the conservation priority in cropland for bird species at a national scale and applied the framework in China. We calculated the suitable habitat for each species and used a complementarity-based approach to designate the irreplaceable conservation priority areas considering richness, threatened level, and conservation percentage targets. We identified cropland taking up 6.76% of China's land area as a bird conservation priority, partially covering the suitable habitat of all the study species. By analyzing the landscape pattern of the priority areas and species' foraging traits, we provided policy-making suggestions according to area-specific characteristics. This framework can be used to identify priority areas for large-scale biodiversity conservation for different countries.

Area of Habitat maps for the world's terrestrial birds and mammals

Area of Habitat (AOH) is "the habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range". It complements a geographic range map for a species by showing potential occupancy and reducing commission errors. AOH maps are produced by subtracting areas considered unsuitable for the species from their range map, using information on each species' associations with habitat and elevation. We present AOH maps for 5,481 terrestrial mammal and 10,651 terrestrial bird species (including 1,816 migratory bird species for which we present separate maps for the resident, breeding and non-breeding areas). Our maps have a resolution of 100 m. On average, AOH covered 66 ± 28% of the range maps for mammals and 64 ± 27% for birds. The AOH maps were validated independently, following a novel two-step methodology: a modelling approach to identify outliers and a species-level approach based on point localities. We used AOH maps to produce global maps of the species richness of mammals, birds, globally threatened mammals and globally threatened birds.

Human density modulates spatial associations among tropical forest terrestrial mammal species

The spatial aggregation of species pairs often increases with the ecological similarity of the species involved. However, the way in which environmental conditions and anthropogenic activity affect the relationship between spatial aggregation and ecological similarity remains unknown despite the potential for spatial associations to affect species interactions, ecosystem function, and extinction risk. Given that human disturbance has been shown to both increase and decrease spatial associations among species pairs, ecological similarity may have a role in mediating these patterns. Here, we test the influences of habitat diversity, primary productivity, human population density, and species' ecological similarity based on functional traits (i.e., functional trait similarity) on spatial associations among tropical forest mammals. Large mammals are highly sensitive to anthropogenic change and therefore susceptible to changes in interspecific spatial associations. Using two-species occupancy models and camera trap data, we quantified the spatial overlap of 1216 species pairs from 13 tropical forest protected areas around the world. We found that the association between ecological similarity and interspecific species associations depended on surrounding human density. Specifically, aggregation of ecologically similar species was more than an order of magnitude stronger in landscapes with the highest human density compared to those with the lowest human density, even though all populations occurred within protected areas. Human-induced changes in interspecific spatial associations have been shown to alter top-down control by predators, increase disease transmission and increase local extinction rates. Our results indicate that anthropogenic effects on the distribution of wildlife within protected areas are already occurring and that impacts on species interactions, ecosystem functions, and extinction risk warrant further investigation.

Spotting what’s important: Priority areas, connectivity, and conservation of the Northern Tiger Cat (Leopardus tigrinus) in Colombia

Leopardus tigrinus is among the least known carnivore species in the Neotropics, including considerable taxonomic uncertainty. Here we model the distribution, connectivity and overlap with existing conservation areas for the species in Colombia. Using a Species Distribution Modeling approach, we estimated current potential range of the species in Colombia and identified potential habitat blocks remaining in the country. In addition, we designed a connectivity network across the available cores, using a circuit theory approach, to evaluate habitat linkage. Finally, we defined a prioritization scheme for the remaining habitat cores and assessed the level of coverage of protected areas for the country. L. tigrinus is potentially present across the three Andean branches of Colombia, with still considerable continuous habitat cores, mostly located on the eastern and central Andean ranges. Most habitat cores are theoretically connected, but nearly 15% are isolated. Priority areas were located across the eastern and central ranges, but with very significant and promising cores in the northern eastern and western ranges. Current level of protection indicates nearly 30% of the range is “protected”, but only about 25% is under national strict protected areas. Evolution of this coverage showed some periods of significant increase but interestingly the number of cores grew at a faster rate than overall proportion protected, likely indicating numerous discontinuous fragments, and not contiguous functional landscapes. This represents the most updated assessment of the distribution and conservation status for the species in Colombia, and indicates the numerous conservation opportunities, especially in most populated areas of the country. We found unique business environmental passive’s opportunities, including compensation and development potential, which are becoming more available in the country.

Mapping breeding bird species richness at management-relevant resolutions across the United States

Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine-enough resolution to be management-relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life-history-based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992-2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild-specific species richness were best explained at 5-km resolution using ~24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5-km-resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence-based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management-relevant biodiversity products for large areas.

Reconsidering priorities for forest conservation when considering the threats of mining and armed conflict

Many threats to biodiversity can be predicted and are well mapped but others are uncertain in their extent, impact on biodiversity, and ability for conservation efforts to address, making them more difficult to account for in spatial conservation planning efforts, and as a result, they are often ignored. Here, we use a spatial prioritisation analysis to evaluate the consequences of considering only relatively well-mapped threats to biodiversity and compare this with planning scenarios that also account for more uncertain threats (in this case mining and armed conflict) under different management strategies. We evaluate three management strategies to address these more uncertain threats: 1. to ignore them; 2. avoid them; or 3. specifically target actions towards them, first individually and then simultaneously to assess the impact of their inclusion in spatial prioritisations. We apply our approach to the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and identify priority areas for conserving biodiversity and carbon sequestration services. We found that a strategy that avoids addressing threats of mining and armed conflict more often misses important opportunities for biodiversity conservation, compared to a strategy that targets action towards areas under threat (assuming a biodiversity benefit is possible). We found that considering mining and armed conflict threats to biodiversity independently rather than simultaneously results in 13 800-14 800 km² and 15 700-25 100 km² of potential missed conservation opportunities when undertaking threat-avoiding and threat-targeting management strategies, respectively. Our analysis emphasises the importance of considering all threats that can be mapped in spatial conservation prioritisation.

Global importance of Indigenous Peoples, their lands, and knowledge systems for saving the world's primates from extinction

Primates, represented by 521 species, are distributed across 91 countries primarily in the Neotropic, Afrotropic, and Indo-Malayan realms. Primates inhabit a wide range of habitats and play critical roles in sustaining healthy ecosystems that benefit human and nonhuman communities. Approximately 68% of primate species are threatened with extinction because of global pressures to convert their habitats for agricultural production and the extraction of natural resources. Here, we review the scientific literature and conduct a spatial analysis to assess the significance of Indigenous Peoples' lands in safeguarding primate biodiversity. We found that Indigenous Peoples' lands account for 30% of the primate range, and 71% of primate species inhabit these lands. As their range on these lands increases, primate species are less likely to be classified as threatened or have declining populations. Safeguarding Indigenous Peoples' lands, languages, and cultures represents our greatest chance to prevent the extinction of the world's primates.

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Coronaviruses may spill over from bats to humans. This study uses epidemiological data, species distribution models, and probabilistic risk assessment to map overlap among people and SARSr-CoV bat hosts and estimate how many people are infected with bat-origin SARSr-CoVs in Southeast Asia annually.

J. Desbiez A, Díaz‐Muñoz SL, Fennessy J, Fichtel C, Fischer C, Fisher JT, Fischhoff I, Ford AT, Fryxell JM, Gehr B, Goheen JR, Hauptfleisch M, Hewison AJM, Hering R, Heurich M, Isbell LA, Janssen R, Jeltsch F, Kaczensky P, Kappeler PM, Krofel M, LaPoint S, Latham ADM, Linnell JDC, Markham AC, Mattisson J, Medici EP, de Miranda Mourão G, Van Moorter B, Morato RG, Morellet N, Mysterud A, Mwiu S, Odden J, Olson KA, Ornicāns A, Pagon N, Panzacchi M, Persson J, Petroelje T, Rolandsen CM, Roshier D, Rubenstein DI, Saïd S, Salemgareyev AR, Sawyer H, Schmidt NM, Selva N, Sergiel A, Stabach J, Stacy‐Dawes J, Stewart FEC, Stiegler J, Strand O, Sundaresan S, Svoboda NJ, Ullmann W, Voigt U, Wall J, Wikelski M, Wilmers CC, Zięba F, Zwijacz‐Kozica T, Schipper AM, Tucker MA. Evaluating expert-based habitat suitability information of terrestrial mammals with GPS-tracking data

AIM

Macroecological studies that require habitat suitability data for many species often derive this information from expert opinion. However, expert-based information is inherently subjective and thus prone to errors. The increasing availability of GPS tracking data offers opportunities to evaluate and supplement expert-based information with detailed empirical evidence. Here, we compared expert-based habitat suitability information from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) with habitat suitability information derived from GPS-tracking data of 1,498 individuals from 49 mammal species.

LOCATION

Worldwide.

TIME PERIOD

1998-2021.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Forty-nine terrestrial mammal species.

METHODS

Using GPS data, we estimated two measures of habitat suitability for each individual animal: proportional habitat use (proportion of GPS locations within a habitat type), and selection ratio (habitat use relative to its availability). For each individual we then evaluated whether the GPS-based habitat suitability measures were in agreement with the IUCN data. To that end, we calculated the probability that the ranking of empirical habitat suitability measures was in agreement with IUCN's classification into suitable, marginal and unsuitable habitat types.

RESULTS

IUCN habitat suitability data were in accordance with the GPS data (> 95% probability of agreement) for 33 out of 49 species based on proportional habitat use estimates and for 25 out of 49 species based on selection ratios. In addition, 37 and 34 species had a > 50% probability of agreement based on proportional habitat use and selection ratios, respectively.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

We show how GPS-tracking data can be used to evaluate IUCN habitat suitability data. Our findings indicate that for the majority of species included in this study, it is appropriate to use IUCN habitat suitability data in macroecological studies. Furthermore, we show that GPS-tracking data can be used to identify and prioritize species and habitat types for re-evaluation of IUCN habitat suitability data.

Maps of area of habitat for Italian amphibians and reptiles

Planning conservation actions requires detailed information on species’ geographic distribution. Species distribution data are most needed in areas hosting unique or endangered biodiversity. Italy is one of the European countries with the highest levels of herpetological diversity and endemism and is home to several threatened species of amphibians and reptiles. Information on the distribution of species’ habitats can help identify sites where the species is most likely to thrive, as viable populations depend on it. Area of Habitat (AOH) maps reveal the distribution of the habitat available to the species within their geographic range. We produced high resolution, freely accessible global area of habitat maps for 60 species of reptiles and amphibians distributed in Italy, which represent 60% of all Italian amphibian and reptile species. We validated a total of 44 AOH maps through a presence-only based evaluation method, with 86% of these maps showing a performance better than expected by chance. AOH maps can be used as a reference for conservation planning, as well as to investigate macroecological patterns of Italian herpetofauna. Furthermore, AOH maps can help monitoring habitat loss, which is known to be a major threat to many reptile and amphibian species in Europe.

Global protected areas seem insufficient to safeguard half of the world's mammals from human-induced extinction

Protected areas are vital for conserving global biodiversity, but we lack information on the extent to which the current global protected area network is able to prevent local extinctions. Here we investigate this by assessing the potential size of individual populations of nearly 4,000 terrestrial mammals within protected areas. We find that many existing protected areas are too small or too poorly connected to provide robust and resilient protection for almost all mammal species that are threatened with extinction and for over 1,000 species that are not currently threatened. These results highlight that global biodiversity targets must reflect ecological realities by incorporating spatial structure and estimates of population viability, rather than relying simply on the total area of land protected.

Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global conservation and central to international plans to minimize global extinctions. During the coming century, global ecosystem destruction and fragmentation associated with increased human population and economic activity could make the long-term survival of most terrestrial vertebrates even more dependent on PAs. However, the capacity of the current global PA network to sustain species for the long term is unknown. Here, we explore this question for all nonvolant terrestrial mammals for which we found sufficient data, ∼4,000 species. We first estimate the potential population size of each such mammal species in each PA and then use three different criteria to estimate if solely the current global network of PAs might be sufficient for their long-term survival. Our analyses suggest that current PAs may fail to provide robust protection for about half the species analyzed, including most species currently listed as threatened with extinction and a third of species not currently listed as threatened. Hundreds of mammal species appear to have no viable protected populations. Underprotected species were found across all body sizes, taxonomic groups, and geographic regions. Large-bodied mammals, endemic species, and those in high-biodiversity tropical regions were particularly poorly protected by existing PAs. As new international biodiversity targets are formulated, our results suggest that the global network of PAs must be greatly expanded and most importantly that PAs must be located in diverse regions that encompass species not currently protected and must be large enough to ensure that protected species can persist for the long term.

Translating habitat class to land cover to map area of habitat of terrestrial vertebrates

Area of habitat (AOH) is defined as the "habitat available to a species, that is, habitat within its range" and is calculated by subtracting areas of unsuitable land cover and elevation from the range. The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Habitats Classification Scheme provides information on species habitat associations, and typically unvalidated expert opinion is used to match habitat to land-cover classes, which generates a source of uncertainty in AOH maps. We developed a data-driven method to translate IUCN habitat classes to land cover based on point locality data for 6986 species of terrestrial mammals, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. We extracted the land-cover class at each point locality and matched it to the IUCN habitat class or classes assigned to each species occurring there. Then, we modeled each land-cover class as a function of IUCN habitat with (SSG, using) logistic regression models. The resulting odds ratios were used to assess the strength of the association between each habitat and land-cover class. We then compared the performance of our data-driven model with those from a published translation table based on expert knowledge. We calculated the association between habitat classes and land-cover classes as a continuous variable, but to map AOH as binary presence or absence, it was necessary to apply a threshold of association. This threshold can be chosen by the user according to the required balance between omission and commission errors. Some habitats (e.g., forest and desert) were assigned to land-cover classes with more confidence than others (e.g., wetlands and artificial). The data-driven translation model and expert knowledge performed equally well, but the model provided greater standardization, objectivity, and repeatability. Furthermore, our approach allowed greater flexibility in the use of the results and uncertainty to be quantified. Our model can be modified for regional examinations and different taxonomic groups.

Increasing taxonomic diversity and spatial resolution clarifies opportunities for protecting US imperiled species

Continental- and regional-scale assessments of gaps in protected area networks typically use relatively coarse range maps for well documented species groups, creating uncertainty about the fate of unexamined biodiversity and providing insufficient guidance for land managers. By building habitat suitability models for a taxonomically diverse group of 2216 imperiled plants and animals, we revealed comprehensive and detailed protection opportunities in the conterminous United States. Summing protection-weighted range-size rarity (PWRSR, the product of the percent of modeled habitat outside of protected areas and the inverse of modeled habitat extent) uncovered novel patterns of biodiversity importance. Concentrations of unprotected imperiled species in places such as the northern Sierra Nevada, central and northern Arizona, the Rocky Mountains of Utah and Colorado, southeastern Texas, southwestern Arkansas, and Florida's Lake Wales Ridge have rarely if ever been featured in continental- and regional-scale analyses. Inclusion of diverse taxa (vertebrates, freshwater mussels, crayfishes, bumble bees, butterflies, skippers, and vascular plants) partially drove these new patterns. When analyses were restricted to groups typically included in previous studies (birds, mammals, and amphibians), up to 53% of imperiled species in other groups were left out. The finer resolution of modeled inputs (990 m) also resulted in a more geographically dispersed pattern. For example, 90% of the human population of the conterminous United States lives within 50 km of modeled habitat for one or more species with high PWRSR scores. Over one-half of the habitat for 818 species occurs within federally lands managed for biodiversity protection; an additional 360 species have over one-half of their modeled habitat on federal multiple use land. Freshwater animals occur in places with poorer landscape condition but with less exposure to climate change than other groups, suggesting that habitat restoration is an important conservation strategy for these species. The results provide fine-scale, taxonomically diverse inputs for local and regional priority-setting and show that although protection efforts are still widely needed on private lands, notable gains can be achieved by increasing protection status on selected federal lands.

Matrix condition mediates the effects of habitat fragmentation on species extinction risk

Habitat loss is the leading cause of the global decline in biodiversity, but the influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. Here, we measure the relationship between fragmentation (the degree of fragmentation and the degree of patch isolation), matrix condition (measured as the extent of high human footprint levels), and the change in extinction risk of 4,426 terrestrial mammals. We find that the degree of fragmentation is strongly associated with changes in extinction risk, with higher predictive importance than life-history traits and human pressure variables. Importantly, we discover that fragmentation and the matrix condition are stronger predictors of risk than habitat loss and habitat amount. Moreover, the importance of fragmentation increases with an increasing deterioration of the matrix condition. These findings suggest that restoration of the habitat matrix may be an important conservation action for mitigating the negative effects of fragmentation on biodiversity.

The influence of human pressure within the matrix surrounding habitat fragments remains poorly understood. This study measures the relationship between habitat fragmentation, matrix condition and the change in extinction risk of 4,426 terrestrial mammals, finding that fragmentation and matrix condition are stronger predictors of risk than habitat loss and habitat amount.

Humans, megafauna and landscape structure – Rock engravings from Namibia encourage a comparative approach to central Europe and southern Africa

This paper deals with reflections that arose after observing prehistoric rock engravings at different locations in Namibia. These observations stimulated comparative considerations with focus on southern Africa and central Europe. Similar to the Aurignacian rock art of European origin, the most common motifs in the Namibian rock engravings are large animals. While in Europe, the species that served as a blueprint for the illustration of Aurignacian rock art have mostly disappeared, the megafauna illustrated on the rock engravings in Namibia can still be found in the immediate vicinity of the rock art. Against this background, we discuss and further develop a comparative regional approach. We reconstruct and evaluate the suitability of African savannas and still-existing megafauna communities as an appropriate reference-frame for natural European grassland systems and extinct associated warm-adapted megafauna (Eemian Interglacial megafauna). Special attention is laid on the unique situation in Africa in the light of a global extinction wave of megafauna following increasing human activity in the Late Quaternary. This leads us to discuss the use of domesticated ungulates as surrogate taxa to fulfill ecosystem functions in Europe as part of concepts termed “rewilding” or “naturalistic grazing”. After critically examining these concepts, we conclude that using domesticated forms as representatives of extinct or locally disappeared species in Europe has its justification to some extent. If, however, the naturally occurring megaherbivore community still exists (Africa), these naturally occurring species should be given priority due to their organismic abilities and limitations adapted to the harsh conditions in their specific environment. Finally, we discuss the application of (transboundary) protected areas as effective instruments to mitigate human-wildlife conflicts. A holistic approach, including nature conservation and preservation of cultural achievements (domesticated forms, grazing systems), appears promising for the effective protection of the natural African savanna ecosystems with their unique fauna elements, as illustrated in rock engravings that inspired us to write this paper.

Landscape Structure of Woody Cover Patches for Endangered Ocelots in Southern Texas

Few ecological studies have explored landscape suitability using the gradient concept of landscape structure for wildlife species. Identification of conditions influencing the landscape ecology of endangered species allows for development of more robust recovery strategies. Our objectives were to (i) identify the range of landscape metrics (i.e., mean patch area; patch and edge densities; percent land cover; shape, aggregation, and largest patch indices) associated with woody vegetation used by ocelots (Leopardus pardalis), and (ii) quantify the potential distribution of suitable woody cover for ocelots across southern Texas. We used the gradient concept of landscape structure and the theory of slack combined with GPS telemetry data from 10 ocelots. Spatial distribution of high suitable woody cover is comprised of large patches, with low shape-index values (1.07–2.25), patch (27.21–72.50 patches/100 ha), and edge (0–191.50 m/ha) densities. High suitability landscape structure for ocelots occurs in 45.27% of woody cover in southern Texas. Our study demonstrates a new approach for measuring landscape suitability for ocelots in southern Texas. The range of landscape values identified that there are more large woody patches containing the spatial structure used by ocelots than previously suspected, which will aid in evaluating recovery and road planning efforts.

Mammal assemblage composition predicts global patterns in emerging infectious disease risk

As a source of emerging infectious diseases, wildlife assemblages (and related spatial patterns) must be quantitatively assessed to help identify high-risk locations. Previous assessments have largely focussed on the distributions of individual species; however, transmission dynamics are expected to depend on assemblage composition. Moreover, disease-diversity relationships have mainly been studied in the context of species loss, but assemblage composition and disease risk (e.g. infection prevalence in wildlife assemblages) can change without extinction. Based on the predicted distributions and abundances of 4466 mammal species, we estimated global patterns of disease risk through the calculation of the community-level basic reproductive ratio R0, an index of invasion potential, persistence, and maximum prevalence of a pathogen in a wildlife assemblage. For density-dependent diseases, we found that, in addition to tropical areas which are commonly viewed as infectious disease hotspots, northern temperate latitudes included high-risk areas. We also forecasted the effects of climate change and habitat loss from 2015 to 2035. Over this period, many local assemblages showed no net loss of species richness, but the assemblage composition (i.e. the mix of species and their abundances) changed considerably. Simultaneously, most areas experienced a decreased risk of density-dependent diseases but an increased risk of frequency-dependent diseases. We further explored the factors driving these changes in disease risk. Our results suggest that biodiversity and changes therein jointly influence disease risk. Understanding these changes and their drivers and ultimately identifying emerging infectious disease hotspots can help health officials prioritize resource distribution.

Mapping habitat suitability for Asiatic black bear and red panda in Makalu Barun National Park of Nepal from Maxent and GARP models

Habitat evaluation is essential for managing wildlife populations and formulating conservation policies. With the rise of innovative powerful statistical techniques in partnership with Remote Sensing, GIS and GPS techniques, spatially explicit species distribution modeling (SDM) has rapidly grown in conservation biology. These models can help us to study habitat suitability at the scale of the species range, and are particularly useful for examining the overlapping habitat between sympatric species. Species presence points collected through field GPS observations, in conjunction with 13 different topographic, vegetation related, anthropogenic, and bioclimatic variables, as well as a land cover map with seven classification categories created by support vector machine (SVM) were used to implement Maxent and GARP ecological niche models. With the resulting ecological niche models, the suitable habitat for asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) and red panda (Ailurus fulgens) in Nepal Makalu Barun National Park (MBNP) was predicted. All of the predictor variables were extracted from freely available remote sensing and publicly shared government data resources. The modeled results were validated by using an independent dataset. Analysis of the regularized training gain showed that the three most important environmental variables for habitat suitability were distance to settlement, elevation, and mean annual temperature. The habitat suitability modeling accuracy, characterized by the mean area under curve, was moderate for both species when GARP was used (0.791 for black bear and 0.786 for red panda), but was moderate for black bear (0.857), and high for red panda (0.920) when Maxent was used. The suitable habitat estimated by Maxent for black bear and red panda was 716 km2 and 343 km2 respectively, while the suitable area determined by GARP was 1074 km2 and 714 km2 respectively. Maxent predicted that the overlapping area was 83% of the red panda habitat and 40% of the black bear habitat, while GARP estimated 88% of the red panda habitat and 58% of the black bear habitat overlapped. The results of land cover exhibited that barren land covered the highest percentage of area in MBNP (36.0%) followed by forest (32.6%). Of the suitable habitat, both models indicated forest as the most preferred land cover for both species (63.7% for black bear and 61.6% for red panda from Maxent; 59.9% black bear and 58.8% for red panda from GARP). Maxent outperformed GARP in terms of habitat suitability modeling. The black bear showed higher habitat selectivity than red panda. We suggest that proper management should be given to the overlapping habitats in the buffer zone. For remote and inaccessible regions, the proposed methods are promising tools for wildlife management and conservation, deserving further popularization.

The importance of Indigenous Peoples' lands for the conservation of terrestrial mammals

Indigenous Peoples' lands cover over one-quarter of Earth's surface, a significant proportion of which is still free from industrial-level human impacts. As a result, Indigenous Peoples and their lands are crucial for the long-term persistence of Earth's biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, information on species composition on these lands globally remains largely unknown. We conducted the first comprehensive analysis of terrestrial mammal composition across mapped Indigenous lands based on data on area of habitat (AOH) for 4460 mammal species assessed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. We overlaid each species' AOH on a current map of Indigenous lands and found that 2695 species (60% of assessed mammals) had ≥10% of their ranges on Indigenous Peoples' lands and 1009 species (23%) had >50% of their ranges on these lands. For threatened species, 473 (47%) occurred on Indigenous lands with 26% having >50% of their habitat on these lands. We also found that 935 mammal species (131 categorized as threatened) had ≥ 10% of their range on Indigenous Peoples' lands that had low human pressure. Our results show how important Indigenous Peoples' lands are to the successful implementation of conservation and sustainable development agendas worldwide.

Site-Based Conservation of Terrestrial Bird Species in the Caribbean and Central and South America Under Climate Change

Two of the principal responses of species to recent climate change have been changes in range and abundance, leading to a global reshuffling of the geographic distribution of species. Such range changes may cause species to disappear from areas they currently occupy and, given the right conditions, to colonize new sites. This could affect the ability of site networks (such as protected areas) to conserve species. Identifying sites that will continue to provide suitable conditions for focal species under future climate change scenarios and sites that are likely to become unsuitable is important for effective conservation planning. Here we explore the impacts of climate change on terrestrial bird species of conservation concern in the Neotropics, and the consequences for the network of Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) identified to conserve them. We modelled changes in species distributions for 3,798 species across the Caribbean and Central and South America, accounting for species-specific biological traits (natal dispersal ability and generation length), to assess species occurrences within IBAs under different future climate scenarios. Based on the projected changes in species compositions, we identified potential management strategies for the individual sites of the network. We projected that future climate change will have substantial impacts on the distribution of individual species across the IBA network, resulting in very heterogenous impacts on the individual IBAs. Mean turnover of species of conservation concern within IBAs was 17% by 2050. Nonetheless, under a medium-warming scenario, for 73% of the 939 species of conservation concern, more than half of the IBAs in which they currently occur were projected to remain climatically suitable, and for 90% at least a quarter of the sites remain suitable. These results suggest that the IBA network will remain robust under climate change. Nevertheless, 7% of the species of conservation concern are projected to have no suitable climate in the IBAs currently identified for them. Our results highlight the importance of a network-wide perspective when taking management decisions for individual sites under climate change.

Data sharing among protected areas shows advantages in habitat suitability modelling performance

Abstract ContextMost of the effort dedicated to the conservation of biodiversity in the European Union is applied through the establishment and maintenance of the Natura 2000 network, the world’s most extensive network of conservation areas. European Member State must actively manage these sites and report the state of the species listed in the Annexes of the Habitat and Birds Directives. Fulfilling these duties is a challenging task, especially when money available for conservation is limited. Consequently, how to optimise the use of the available economic resources is a primary goal for reserve managers. AimsIn the present study, we focussed on data-sharing, and we analysed whether data-sharing among institutions may boost the performance of habitat suitability models (HSMs). MethodsWe collected presence data about three species of reptiles in three different protected areas of northern Italy. Then, we built HSMs under the following two different data-sharing policies: data-sharing of species’ occurrence among the different managers of the protected areas, and not sharing the occurrence data among the different managers. To evaluate how sharing the occurrence data influences the reliability of HSMs in various situations, we compared model performances under several sampling-effort levels. Key resultsResults show that data-sharing is usually the best strategy. In most cases, models built under the data-sharing (DS) strategy showed better performance than did data-un-sharing (DU) models. The data-sharing strategy showed advantages in model performance, notably at low levels of sampling effort. ConclusionsOvercoming administrative barriers and share data among different managers of protected areas allows obtaining more biologically meaningful results. ImplicationsData-sharing among protected areas could allow improving the reliability of future management actions within the Natura 2000 network.

Combining Deforestation and Species Distribution Models to Improve Measures of Chimpanzee Conservation Impacts of REDD: A Case Study from Ntakata Mountains, Western Tanzania

Projects to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) are designed to reduce carbon emissions through avoided deforestation and degradation, and in many cases, to produce additional community and biodiversity conservation co-benefits. While these co-benefits can be significant, quantifying conservation impacts has been challenging, and most projects use simple species presence to demonstrate positive biodiversity impact. Some of the same tools applied in the quantification of climate mitigation benefits have relevance and potential application to estimating co-benefits for biodiversity conservation. In western Tanzania, most chimpanzees live outside of national park boundaries, and thus face threats from human activity, including competition for suitable habitat. Through a case study of the Ntakata Mountains REDD project in western Tanzania, we demonstrate a combined application of deforestation modelling with species distribution models to assess forest conservation benefits in terms of avoided carbon emissions and improved chimpanzee habitat. The application of such tools is a novel approach that we argue permits the better design of future REDD projects for biodiversity co-benefits. This approach also enables project developers to produce the more manageable, accurate and cost-effective monitoring, reporting and verification of project impacts that are critical to verification under carbon standards.

GalliForm, a database of Galliformes occurrence records from the Indo-Malay and Palaearctic, 1800-2008

Historical as well as current species distribution data are needed to track changes in biodiversity. Species distribution data are found in a variety of sources, each of which has its own distinct bias toward certain taxa, time periods or places. We present GalliForm, a database that comprises 186687 galliform occurrence records linked to 118907 localities in Europe and Asia. Records were derived from museums, peer-reviewed and grey literature, unpublished field notes, diaries and correspondence, banding records, atlas records and online birding trip reports. We describe data collection processes, georeferencing methods and quality-control procedures. This database has underpinned several peer-reviewed studies, investigating spatial and temporal bias in biodiversity data, species' geographic range changes and local extirpation patterns. In our rapidly changing world, an understanding of long-term change in species' distributions is key to predicting future impacts of threatening processes such as land use change, over-exploitation of species and climate change. This database, its historical aspect in particular, provides a valuable source of information for further studies in macroecology and biodiversity conservation.

Extent, intensity and drivers of mammal defaunation: a continental-scale analysis across the Neotropics

Neotropical mammal diversity is currently threatened by several chronic human-induced pressures. We compiled 1,029 contemporary mammal assemblages surveyed across the Neotropics to quantify the continental-scale extent and intensity of defaunation and understand their determinants based on environmental covariates. We calculated a local defaunation index for all assemblages—adjusted by a false-absence ratio—which was examined using structural equation models. We propose a hunting index based on socioenvironmental co-variables that either intensify or inhibit hunting, which we used as an additional predictor of defaunation. Mammal defaunation intensity across the Neotropics on average erased 56.5% of the local source fauna, with ungulates comprising the most ubiquitous losses. The extent of defaunation is widespread, but more incipient in hitherto relatively intact major biomes that are rapidly succumbing to encroaching deforestation frontiers. Assemblage-wide mammal body mass distribution was greatly reduced from a historical 95th-percentile of ~ 14 kg to only ~ 4 kg in modern assemblages. Defaunation and depletion of large-bodied species were primarily driven by hunting pressure and remaining habitat area. Our findings can inform guidelines to design transnational conservation policies to safeguard native vertebrates, and ensure that the “empty ecosystem” syndrome will be deterred from reaching much of the New World tropics.

A global map of terrestrial habitat types

We provide a global, spatially explicit characterization of 47 terrestrial habitat types, as defined in the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) habitat classification scheme, which is widely used in ecological analyses, including for quantifying species' Area of Habitat. We produced this novel habitat map for the year 2015 by creating a global decision tree that intersects the best currently available global data on land cover, climate and land use. We independently validated the map using occurrence data for 828 species of vertebrates (35152 point plus 8181 polygonal occurrences) and 6026 sampling sites. Across datasets and mapped classes we found on average a balanced accuracy of 0.77 ([Formula: see text]0.14 SD) at Level 1 and 0.71 ([Formula: see text]0.15 SD) at Level 2, while noting potential issues of using occurrence records for validation. The maps broaden our understanding of habitats globally, assist in constructing area of habitat refinements and are relevant for broad-scale ecological studies and future IUCN Red List assessments. Periodic updates are planned as better or more recent data becomes available.

Distant regions underpin interregional flows of cultural ecosystem services provided by birds and mammals

Ecosystem service assessments rarely consider flows between distant regions. Hence, telecoupling effects such as conservation burdens in distant ecosystems are ignored. We identified service-providing species for two cultural ecosystem services (existence and bequest, and birdwatching) and two receiving, i.e. benefitting, regions (Germany, the Netherlands). We delineated and analysed sending, i.e. service-providing, regions on a global scale. The proportion of service-providing species with distant habitats was higher for birdwatching (Germany: 58.6%, Netherlands: 59.4%), than for existence and bequest (Germany: 49.3%, Netherlands: 57.1%). Hotspots of sending regions were predominantly situated in tropical and subtropical grasslands, savannas and shrublands and were significantly more threatened and poorer than the global mean. Hotspot protection levels for flows to Germany were higher than the global mean, and lower for the Dutch hotspots. Our findings increase understanding on how distant regions underpin ecosystem services and necessitate interregional assessment as well as conservation efforts.

Global conservation of species' niches

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive¹. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations^1-3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas⁴. Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally^5-8-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots⁹, including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas^1,2.