Assessing the burden of COVID-19 in developing countries: systematic review, meta-analysis and public policy implications

Cardiovascular testing recovery in Latin America one year into the COVID-19 pandemic: An analysis of data from an international longitudinal survey

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately impacted Latin America (LATAM), significantly disrupting cardiovascular testing. This study evaluated cardiac procedure recovery in LATAM one year after the outbreak.

Methods

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) surveyed 669 centers in 107 countries worldwide, including 135 facilities in 19 LATAM countries, to assess cardiovascular procedure volumes in March 2019, April 2020, and April 2021, and changes in center practices and staffing conditions one year into the COVID-19 pandemic.

Findings

LATAM centers reported a 21 % decrease in procedure volumes in April 2021 from pre-pandemic-baseline, vs. a 0 % change in the rest of the world (RoW), and greater volume reductions for almost all procedure types. Centers in Central America and Mexico reported the largest procedure reductions (47 % reduction) compared to the Caribbean (15 %), and South America (14 %, p = 0.01), and this LATAM region was a significant predictor of lower procedure recovery in multivariable regression. More LATAM centers reported reduced salaries and increased layoffs of clinical staff compared to RoW, and LATAM respondents estimated that half of physician and non-physician staff experienced excess psychological stress related to the pandemic, compared to 25 % and 30 % in RoW (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

Cardiovascular testing recovery in LATAM trailed behind RoW for most procedure types, with centers in Central America and Mexico reporting the greatest volume reductions. This study found lasting impacts of COVID-19 on cardiovascular care in LATAM and the need for mental health support for LATAM healthcare workers in current and future pandemics.

Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling

We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated to detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, and vaccine breakthrough infections in Florida, USA. We compare the incremental effectiveness for four different distribution strategies at four different levels of vaccine supply, starting in late 2020 through early 2022. Our analysis indicates that the best strategy to reduce severe outcomes would be to actively target high disease-risk individuals. This was true in every scenario, although the advantage was greatest for the intermediate vaccine availability assumptions and relatively modest compared to a simple mass vaccination approach under high vaccine availability. Ring vaccination, while generally the most effective strategy for reducing infections, ultimately proved least effective at preventing deaths. We also consider using age group as a practical surrogate measure for actual disease-risk targeting; this approach also outperforms both simple mass distribution and ring vaccination. We find that quantitative effectiveness of a strategy depends on whether effectiveness is assessed after the alpha, delta, or omicron wave. However, these differences in absolute benefit for the strategies do not change the ranking of their performance at preventing severe outcomes across vaccine availability assumptions.

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND

Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations.

METHODS

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds.

FINDINGS

The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles.

INTERPRETATION

Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A high-throughput response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

Four years after the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to reflect on the events that have occurred during that time and the knowledge that has been gained. The response to the pandemic was rapid and highly resourced; it was also built upon a foundation of decades of federally funded basic and applied research. Laboratories in government, pharmaceutical, academic, and non-profit institutions all played roles in advancing pre-2020 discoveries to produce clinical treatments. This perspective provides a summary of how the development of high-throughput screening methods in a biosafety level 3 (BSL-3) environment at Southern Research Institute (SR) contributed to pandemic response efforts. The challenges encountered are described, including those of a technical nature as well as those of working under the pressures of an unpredictable virus and pandemic.

Health and sociodemographic determinants of excess mortality in Spanish nursing homes during the COVID-19 pandemic: a 2-year prospective longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Age, multimorbidity, immunodeficiency and frailty of older people living in nursing homes make them vulnerable to COVID-19 and overall mortality.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate overall and COVID-19 mortality parameters and analyse their predictive factors in older people living in nursing homes over a 2-year period.

METHOD

Design: A 2-year prospective longitudinal multicentre study was conducted between 2020 and 2022.

SETTING

This study involved five nursing homes in Central Catalonia (Spain).

PARTICIPANTS

Residents aged 65 years or older who lived in the nursing homes on a permanent basis.

MEASUREMENTS

Date and causes of deaths were recorded. In addition, sociodemographic and health data were collected. For the effect on mortality, survival curves were performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate analysis using Cox regression.

RESULTS

The total sample of 125 subjects had a mean age of 85.10 years (standard deviation = 7.3 years). There were 59 (47.2%) deaths at 24 months (95% confidence interval, CI, 38.6-55.9) and 25 (20.0%) were due to COVID-19, mostly in the first 3 months. In multivariate analysis, functional impairment (hazard ratio, HR 2.40; 95% CI 1.33-4.32) was a significant risk factor for mortality independent of age (HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.69-2.00) and risk of sarcopenia (HR 1.40; 95% CI 0.63-3.12).

CONCLUSION

Almost half of this sample of nursing home residents died in the 2‑year period, and one fifth were attributed to COVID-19. Functional impairment was a risk factor for overall mortality and COVID-19 mortality, independent of age and risk of sarcopenia.

Bacterial co-infections, secondary infections and antimicrobial use among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the sixth wave in Pakistan: findings and implications

INTRODUCTION

Previous studies in Pakistan have shown considerable over prescribing of antibiotics in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 despite very low prevalence of bacterial infections. Irrational use of antibiotics will worsen antimicrobial resistance (AMR).

METHODS

Retrospective analysis of medical records of patients in the COVID-19 wards of three tertiary care hospitals to assess antibiotic use during the sixth COVID-19 wave.

RESULTS

A total of 284 patients were included, most were male (66.9%), aged 30-50 years (50.7%) with diabetes mellitus the most common comorbidity. The most common symptoms at presentation were cough (47.9%) and arthralgia-myalgia (41.5%). Around 3% were asymptomatic, 34.9% had mild, 30.3% moderate, and 23.6% had severe disease, with 8.1% critical. Chest X-ray abnormalities were seen in 43.3% of patients and 37% had elevated white cell counts, with 35.2% having elevated C-reactive protein levels. Around 91% COVID-19 patients were prescribed antibiotics during their hospital stay, with only a few with proven bacterial co-infections or secondary bacterial infections. Most antibiotics were from the 'Watch' category (90.8%) followed by the 'Reserve' category (4.8%), similar to previous COVID-19 waves.

CONCLUSION

There continued to be excessive antibiotics use among hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Pakistan. Urgent measures are needed to address inappropriate prescribing including greater prescribing of Access antibiotics where pertinent.

Flatten the curve. On a new covid-19 (hit) severity

BACKGROUND

During the health crisis of the COVID-19 pandemic, the adagium was to 'flatten the curve'. We investigate how well countries succeeded in this aim by constructing an appropriate severity measure. It is able to distinguish between countries that, e.g., experienced identical overall (excess) mortality rates or attained equal case load peaks over a certain period of time. Concretely, this implies that an identical total number of infections or deaths over a certain period is considered relatively worse if there is a higher and/or more peaks. More classical measures (like the total number or the maximum of cases/deaths) neglect this and are therefore inappropriate to assess the resilience of a health care system nor pandemic policy ex post performance.

METHODS & RESULTS

We applied our new (hit) severity to a set of 32 countries, and found that the flattening didn't go equally well. The difference in severity is large, with Norway being consistently the least severely hit by the pandemic (using deaths as indicator) during the whole observation period, while Hungary comes out as eventually being hit the hardest in our sample.

CONCLUSIONS

Having constructed a (hit) severity measure that enables to differentiate between countries' performances in a sound way, further research should now relate these observed differences to the pre-pandemic health care status and the sanitary measures or restrictions imposed during the pandemic; in order to reveal what measures help the most in what type of health care system and society.

Progress towards health equity in Vietnam: evidence from nationwide official health statistics, 2010-2020

INTRODUCTION

One of the ultimate goals of strengthening the health system is to achieve health equity. Vietnam is considered one of the 'fast-track countries' to achieve the health-related Millennium Development Goals, but research on its equity strategies remains inadequate.

METHODS

Using Vietnamese official health statistics, we investigated inequity in four dimensions including health resources, service delivery, service utilisation and residents' health status from the perspectives of income levels, poverty rates and subnational regions. The Slope Index of Inequality, concentration curve/Concentration Index, absolute difference and Theil Index were used.

RESULTS

Four indicators showed 'pro-poor' inequality in health resources, including the per capita health budget, per capita health personnel, per capita health personnel at the community level and per capita hospital beds at the community level, while provincial hospital beds showed 'pro-rich' inequality. Two health service delivery indicators (delivery of antenatal care ≥3 times and proportion of community health service centres with medical doctors) show 'pro-rich' inequality, although two health status indicators, mortality and malnutrition rates for children under five, showed 'pro-poor' inequality. The Northern Midlands and Mountain Areas, and the Central Highlands were disadvantaged regarding service delivery and health status. Intraregional differences were the main factors contributing to the inequalities in delivery of antenatal care ≥3 times, provincial hospital beds and percentage of community health centres with medical doctors, with the Red River Delta and the South East region experiencing the greatest inequalities.

CONCLUSION

The overall level of health equity in Vietnam has increased over the past decade, although inequality in health service delivery has hindered progress towards health equity based on income, poverty and subnational regions. Targeted policies need to be introduced to reduce inequities relating to the health workforce and service delivery capacity.

Can evidence drive health equity in the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond?

Using scoping review methods, we systematically searched multiple online databases for publications in the first year of the pandemic that proposed pragmatic population or health system-level solutions to health inequities. We found 77 publications with proposed solutions to pandemic-related health inequities. Most were commentaries, letters, or editorials from the USA, offering untested solutions, and no robust evidence on effectiveness. Some of the proposed solutions could unintentionally exacerbate health inequities. We call on health policymakers to co-create, co-design, and co-produce equity-focussed, evidence-based interventions with communities, focussing on those most at risk to protect the population as a whole. Epidemiologists collaborating with people from other relevant disciplines may provide methodological expertise for these processes. As epidemiologists, we must interrogate our own methods to avoid propagating any unscientific biases we may hold. Epidemiology must be used to address, and never exacerbate, health inequities-in the pandemic and beyond.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and conspiracy beliefs in Togo: Findings from two cross-sectional surveys

Togo is a low-income country in West Africa. Estimates from Our World in Data suggest that only 25% of the Togolese population have received at least one dose of any COVID-19 vaccine by June 2023. Whilst the early phase of the pandemic vaccine rollout across 2021 was dominated by higher-income countries taking much of the available supply, there have long been sufficient supplies for all nations. Thus, there remains a need to understand reasons for low uptake in countries such as Togo, here focusing on population confidence and trust, essentially characteristics that could potentially be addressed within health promotion strategies. Two cross-sectional telephone surveys of Togo residents were conducted in December 2020 and January 2022. These surveys asked questions around perceptions of COVID-19, trust in public health messaging, belief in conspiracy theories, and hesitancy around COVID-19 vaccination. Analyses here focus on unvaccinated respondents. Across Survey 1 (N = 1430) and Survey 2 (N = 212), 65% of respondents were men, and 47% lived in Lomé (capital city of Togo). Between Surveys 1 and 2, overall hesitancy (33.0% to 58.0% respectively) and beliefs in conspiracy theories (29% to 65%) significantly increased. Using logistics regression, governmental mistrust was the strongest significant predictor of hesitancy (OR: 2.90). Participants who indicated agreement or uncertainty with at least one conspiracy belief also predicted greater vaccine hesitancy (OR: 1.36). Proactive approaches to public health messaging, that better understand reasons for hesitancy across different demographics, can support uptake of COVID-19 vaccinations within Togo. This includes health promotion campaigns that use locally and nationally trusted knowledge providers (e.g. the health service or religious leaders) for greatest effectiveness at reducing impact of misinformation. Key future research should focus around knowledge gaps and areas of mistrust created by the pandemic, such as the impact of misinformation upon routine immunisation uptake.

Estimating cutoff values for diagnostic tests to achieve target specificity using extreme value theory

BACKGROUND

Rapidly developing tests for emerging diseases is critical for early disease monitoring. In the early stages of an epidemic, when low prevalences are expected, high specificity tests are desired to avoid numerous false positives. Selecting a cutoff to classify positive and negative test results that has the desired operating characteristics, such as specificity, is challenging for new tests because of limited validation data with known disease status. While there is ample statistical literature on estimating quantiles of a distribution, there is limited evidence on estimating extreme quantiles from limited validation data and the resulting test characteristics in the disease testing context.

METHODS

We propose using extreme value theory to select a cutoff with predetermined specificity by fitting a Pareto distribution to the upper tail of the negative controls. We compared this method to five previously proposed cutoff selection methods in a data analysis and simulation study. We analyzed COVID-19 enzyme linked immunosorbent assay antibody test results from long-term care facilities and skilled nursing staff in Colorado between May and December of 2020.

RESULTS

We found the extreme value approach had minimal bias when targeting a specificity of 0.995. Using the empirical quantile of the negative controls performed well when targeting a specificity of 0.95. The higher target specificity is preferred for overall test accuracy when prevalence is low, whereas the lower target specificity is preferred when prevalence is higher and resulted in less variable prevalence estimation.

DISCUSSION

While commonly used, the normal based methods showed considerable bias compared to the empirical and extreme value theory-based methods.

CONCLUSIONS

When determining disease testing cutoffs from small training data samples, we recommend using the extreme value based-methods when targeting a high specificity and the empirical quantile when targeting a lower specificity.

Risk factors for recognized and unrecognized SARS-CoV-2 infection: a seroepidemiologic analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study

There are limited data on individual risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 infection (including unrecognized infection). In this seroepidemiologic substudy of an ongoing prospective cohort study of community-dwelling adults, participants were thoroughly characterized pre-pandemic. The SARS-CoV-2 infection was ascertained by serology. Among 8,719 participants from 11 high-, middle-, and low-income countries, 3,009 (35%) were seropositive for SARS-CoV-2. Characteristics independently associated with seropositivity were younger age (odds ratio, OR; 95% confidence interval, CI, per five-year increase: 0.95; 0.91-0.98) and body mass index >25 kg/m2 (OR, 95% CI: 1.16, 1.01-1.34). Smoking (as compared with never smoking, OR, 95% CI: 0.83, 0.70-0.97) and COVID-19 vaccination (OR, 95% CI: 0.70, 0.60-0.82) were associated with a reduced risk of seropositivity. Among seropositive participants, 83% were unaware of having been infected with SARS-CoV-2. Seropositivity and a lack of awareness of infection were more common in lower-income countries. The COVID-19 vaccination reduces the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (including recognized and unrecognized infections). Overweight or obesity is an independent risk factor for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Infection and lack of infection awareness are more common in lower-income countries.IMPORTANCEIn this large, international study, evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection was obtained by testing blood specimens from 8,719 community-dwelling adults from 11 countries. The key findings are that (i) the large majority (83%) of community-dwelling adults from several high-, middle-, and low-income countries with blood test evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection were unaware of this infection-especially in lower-income countries; and (ii) overweight/obesity predisposes to SARS-CoV-2 infection, while COVID-19 vaccination is associated with a reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These observations are not attributable to other individual characteristics, highlighting the importance of the COVID-19 vaccination to prevent not only severe infection but possibly any infection. Further research is needed to understand the mechanisms by which overweight/obesity might increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Descriptive analysis to assess seasonal patterns of COVID-19 and influenza in low-income and middle-income countries in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America

OBJECTIVES

Understanding disease seasonality can help predict the occurrence of outbreaks and inform public health planning. Respiratory diseases typically follow seasonal patterns; however, knowledge regarding the seasonality of COVID-19 and its impact on the seasonality of influenza remains limited. The objective of this study was to provide more evidence to understand the circulation of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19, in an endemic scenario to guide potential preventive strategies.

DESIGN

In this study, a descriptive analysis was undertaken to describe seasonality trends and/or overlap between COVID-19 and influenza in 12 low-income and middle-income countries using Our World in Data and FluMart data sources. Plots of COVID-19 and influenza cases were analysed.

SETTING

Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, Morocco, Bahrain, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

OUTCOME MEASURES

COVID-19 cases and influenza cases.

RESULTS

No seasonal patterns of SARS-CoV-2 or SARS-CoV-2/influenza cocirculation were observed in most countries, even when considering the avian influenza pandemic period.

CONCLUSIONS

These results can inform public health strategies. The lack of observed seasonal behaviour highlights the importance of maintaining year-round vaccination rather than implementing seasonal campaigns. Further research investigating the influence of climate conditions, social behaviour and year-round preventive measures could be fundamental for shaping appropriate policies related to COVID-19 and respiratory viral disease control in low-income and middle-income countries as COVID-19 variant data and epidemiologic patterns accrue over time.

Augmenting Antimicrobial Resistance Surveillance: Rapid Detection of β-Lactamase-Expressing Drug-Resistant Bacteria through Sensitized Luminescence on a Paper-Supported Hydrogel

The emergence of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in pathogenic bacteria, expedited by the overuse and misuse of antibiotics, necessitates the development of a rapid and pan-territorially accessible diagnostic protocol for resistant bacterial infections, which would not only enable judicious prescription of drugs, leading to infection control but also augment AMR surveillance. In this study, we introduce for the first time a "turn-on" terbium (Tb3+) photoluminescence assay supported on a paper-based platform for rapid point-of-care (POC) detection of β-lactamase (BL)-producing bacteria. We strategically conjugated biphenyl-4-carboxylic acid (BCA), a potent Tb3+ sensitizer, with cephalosporin to engineer a BL substrate CCS, where the energy transfer to terbium is arrested. However, BL, a major resistance element produced by bacteria resistant to β-lactam antibiotics, triggers a spontaneous release of BCA, empowering terbium sensitization within a supramolecular scaffold supported on paper. The remarkable optical response facilitates quick assessment with a binary answer, and the time-gated signal acquisition ensues improved sensitivity with a detection limit as low as 0.1 mU/mL. Furthermore, to ensure accessibility, particularly in resource-limited areas, we have developed an in loco imaging device as an affordable alternative to high-end instruments. The integration of the assay with the device readily identified the BL-associated drug-resistant strains in the mimic urinary tract infection samples within 2 h, demonstrating its excellent potential for in-field translation. We believe that this rapid paper-based POC assay, coupled with the in loco device, can be deployed anywhere, especially in developing regions, and will enable extensive surveillance on antibiotic-resistant infections.

Essential healthcare services during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional study of community needs and perspectives in West Java, Indonesia

OBJECTIVES

While issues in healthcare facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, little is known about health service issues from community (demand) sides. This study aimed to identify community needs in the utilisation of health services and highlight the key roles and barriers that community health workers (CHWs) face in delivering community-based services during the pandemic.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

38 randomly selected villages covered by 21 preidentified community health centres in 3 districts in West Java, Indonesia. The survey was conducted from 22 January 2022 to 7 February 2022 (2 years after the pandemic began).

PARTICIPANTS

118 respondents, consisting of community leaders, vulnerable group representatives and CHWs.

RESULTS

Laboratory examination (55.1%), emergency care (52.5%), non-communicable disease screening (50%) and routine treatment (49.2%) were perceived as the highest unmet needs of essential healthcare services. Fear of infection (90.3%) became one main barrier to access healthcare services. Vulnerable populations including lower socioeconomic groups (61.2%), households with elderly (25.4%), persons with disabilities (25.4%), pregnant women, people with mental illness and people with lower education (26.9%) were reported facing difficulties in accessing healthcare services. Further, the pandemic was deemed to have significantly impacted the community economic situation (91.5%). CHWs were actively engaged in community-based services and were mentioned as the first contact when the community needed help (57.6%). CHWs reported essential needs on financial support (45.2%), logistics (54.8%) and protective equipment (22.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Essential health services for the community, including those belonging to vulnerable groups, were highly impacted during the pandemic. CHWs appear to have significant roles in delivering health services during this health crisis, hence, adequate support is needed to equip them in strengthening pandemic response.

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: assessing the prevalence, predictors, and effectiveness of a community pharmacy based counseling intervention

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) vaccine hesitancy is a global challenge. In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the problem has persisted despite vaccine availability and decreasing infections. In Uganda, there is still limited information on the extent and predictors of vaccine hesitancy. This study sought to assess the prevalence and predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, and the effectiveness of an intervention that involved community pharmacy counseling in combating COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

METHODS

A total of 394 participants were enrolled in a 4-week prospective cohort interventional study. The study was conducted across eight community pharmacies in Mbarara City, between 9:00 AM and 5:00 PM daily. The study personnel ascertained the vaccination status of all clients seeking community pharmacy services. All unvaccinated clients were consecutively assessed for eligibility, and eligible clients were systematically enrolled after receiving the community pharmacy services for which they requested. The study intervention involved structured participant counseling (within the pharmacy premise), follow-up short message service (weekly), and telephone calls (bi-weekly). Only participants who did not accept to receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite counseling were followed up for four weeks, or until they accepted to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. The effectiveness of the community pharmacy counseling intervention was determined as an increase in COVID-19 vaccine acceptance, and desirable attitudinal change towards COVID-19 disease, vaccination exercise, and vaccines. Descriptive analysis was used to summarize data, and multivariate analysis was used to determine the predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. A p-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

Out of 394 participants, 221 (56%) were hesitant to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Participants expressed several reasons (mean 2±1) for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, mostly concerning vaccine safety (N=160, 47.3%). The overall COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rate increased by 25.4 percent points (43.9 - 69.3 percent points) after the study intervention. Age, religion, level of education, distance from the nearest public health facility, having a friend/family diagnosed with COVID-19, and personal suspicion of contracting COVID-19 were significant predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy.

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is a big challenge in Uganda. A mix of sociodemographic and COVID-19 vaccine perceptions are the key predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy. Although COVID-19 vaccines were not available at the time of the study, this study found that structured counseling interventions can improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance rates. Larger prospective studies should evaluate the effectiveness of similar interventions in community pharmacies and other healthcare settings.

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-income and lower middle-income countries: protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has been marked by a massive death toll. However, the overall effect of the pandemic, including potential unintended negative impacts of some control measures, on mortality remains poorly understood in low-income and lower middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review aims to summarise the available literature on excess mortality in LLMICs, focusing on the methods and data sources used in estimating excess mortality and the drivers of excess mortality.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will review the available literature and report results in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Searches will be conducted in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar and Scopus. All published studies that report on the estimates of excess mortality in populations of LLMICs will be included. This will include those with a publication date from 2019 onwards and those with at least a 1-year non-COVID-19 period as the comparator in the estimation of excess mortality during the pandemic. There will be no language restrictions on the search. The meta-analysis will include studies with extractable data on excess mortality, methods, population size, and observed and expected deaths. We will use the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% CIs.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

As there is no primary data collection, there is no requirement for ethical review. The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed journal publication and conference presentations.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42022378267.

Causes and costs of global COVID-19 vaccine inequity

Despite the rapid development of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines and the widely recognized health and economic benefits of vaccination, there exist stark differences in vaccination rates across country income groups. While more than 70% of the population is fully vaccinated in high-income countries, vaccination rates in low-income countries are only around 30%. The paper reviews the factors behind global COVID-19 vaccine inequity and the health, social, and economic costs triggered by this inequity. The main contributors to vaccine inequity include vaccine nationalism, intellectual property rights, constraints in manufacturing capacity, poor resilience of healthcare systems, and vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine inequity has high costs, including preventable deaths and cases of illnesses in low-income countries, slow economic recovery, and large learning losses among children. Increasing vaccination rates in low-income countries is in the self-interest of higher-income countries as it may prevent the emergence of new variants and continuous disruptions to global supply chains.

Perceptions of the seriousness of major public health problems during the COVID-19 pandemic in seven middle-income countries

INTRODUCTION

Public perception of the seriousness of the COVID-19 pandemic compared to six other major public health problems (alcoholism and drug use, HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, lung cancer and respiratory diseases caused by air pollution and smoking, and water-borne diseases like diarrhea) is unclear. We designed a survey to examine this issue using YouGov's internet panels in seven middle-income countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America in early 2022.

METHODS

Respondents rank ordered the seriousness of the seven health problems using a repeated best-worst question format. Rank-ordered logit models allow comparisons within and across countries and assessment of covariates.

RESULTS

In six of the seven countries, respondents perceived other respiratory illnesses to be a more serious problem than COVID-19. Only in Vietnam was COVID-19 ranked above other respiratory illnesses. Alcoholism and drug use was ranked the second most serious problem in the African countries. HIV/AIDS ranked relatively high in all countries. Covariates, particularly a COVID-19 knowledge scale, explained differences within countries; statistics about the pandemic were highly correlated with differences in COVID-19's perceived seriousness.

CONCLUSIONS

People in the seven middle-income countries perceived COVID-19 to be serious (on par with HIV/AIDS) but not as serious as other respiratory illnesses. In the African countries, respondents perceived alcoholism and drug use as more serious than COVID-19. Our survey-based approach can be used to quickly understand how the threat of a newly emergent disease, like COVID-19, fits into the larger context of public perceptions of the seriousness of health problems.

COVAX - Time to reconsider the strategy and its target

COVAX, the international initiative supporting COVID-19 vaccination campaigns globally, is budgeted to be the costliest public health initiative in low- and middle-income countries, with over 16 billion US dollars already committed. While some claim that the target of vaccinating 70% of people worldwide is justified on equity grounds, we argue that this rationale is wrong for two reasons. First, mass COVID-19 vaccination campaigns do not meet standard public health requirements for clear expected benefit, based on costs, disease burden and intervention effectiveness. Second, it constitutes a diversion of resources from more cost-effective and impactful public health programmes, thus reducing health equity. We conclude that the COVAX initiative warrants urgent review.

Correlates of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy in Rural Communities in Western Kenya

Vaccine hesitancy is a significant global public health concern. This study sought to determine the correlates of acceptance and hesitancy regarding COVID-19 vaccines in rural populations of selected counties in Western Kenya and assess the strategies that can be used to improve COVID-19 vaccine acceptance in Kenya. The study used a quantitative research strategy with a sample of 806 individuals in the Kisumu, Vihiga, and Kakamega counties. Descriptive statistics, correlations and regression analyses were used. Of the 806 study participants, 55% were males and 45% females. Vaccine acceptance was significantly associated with being a male (AOR: 1.46, 95% CI: 1.24-1.59, p < 0.031), having no formal education (AOR: 2.25, 95% CI: 1.16-4.40, p < 0.02), working in the private sector (AOR: 5.78, 95% CI: 3.28-10.88 p < 0.02), and have low income (KES 0-999 (USD 0-9.16)), (AOR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.13-3.47, p < 0.02). Conclusions: The current study suggests that male gender, no formal education, working in the private sector, and low income KES 0-999 (USD 0-9.6) are significant factors influencing awareness of and possible acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination.

Key Considerations during the Transition from the Acute Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Review

The COVID-19 pandemic has been met with an unprecedented response from the scientific community, leading to the development, investigation, and authorization of vaccines and antivirals, ultimately reducing the impact of SARS-CoV-2 on global public health. However, SARS-CoV-2 is far from being eradicated, continues to evolve, and causes substantial health and economic burdens. In this narrative review, we posit essential points on SARS-CoV-2 and its responsible management during the transition from the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. As discussed, despite Omicron (sub)variant(s) causing clinically milder infections, SARS-CoV-2 is far from being a negligible pathogen. It requires continued genomic surveillance, particularly if one considers that its future (sub)lineages do not necessarily have to be milder. Antivirals and vaccines remain the essential elements in COVID-19 management. However, the former could benefit from further development and improvements in dosing, while the seasonal administration of the latter requires simplification to increase interest and tackle vaccine hesitancy. It is also essential to ensure the accessibility of COVID-19 pharmaceuticals and vaccines in low-income countries and improve the understanding of their use in the context of the long-term goals of SARS-CoV-2 management. Regardless of location, the primary role of COVID-19 awareness and education must be played by healthcare workers, who directly communicate with patients and serve as role models for healthy behaviors.

Prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in people attending the two main Goma markets in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) officially reports low coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) prevalence. This cross-sectional study, conducted between September and November 2021, assessed the COVID-19 seroprevalence in people attending Goma's two largest markets, Kituku and Virunga. A similar study in a slum of Bukavu overlapped for 1 month using identical methods. COVID-19-unvaccinated participants (n = 796 including 454 vendors and 342 customers, 60% of whom were women) were surveyed. The median age of vendors and customers was 34.2 and 30.1 years, respectively. The crude and adjusted anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody seroprevalence rates were 70.2% (95% CI 66.9-73.4%) and 98.8% (95% CI 94.1-100%), respectively, with no difference between vendors and customers. COVID-19 symptoms reported by survey participants in the previous 6 months were mild or absent in 58.9% and 41.1% of participants with anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, respectively. No COVID-19-seropositive participants reported hospitalisation in the last 6 months. These findings are consistent with those reported in Bukavu. They confirm that SARS-CoV-2 spread without causing severe symptoms in densely populated settlements and markets and suggest that many COVID-19 cases went unreported. Based on these results, the relevance of an untargeted hypothetical vaccination programme in these communities should be questioned.

Socio-demographic factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake and refusal among Ugandan women

BACKGROUND

This paper analyzes associations of socio-demographic factors with the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines, the refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19, and various reasons stated for refusing vaccination against COVID-19 among a representative sample of Ugandan women.

METHODS

This paper utilizes a representative cross-sectional survey collected among women aged 15-49 years in Uganda between September and November 2021. Regression analyses are used to study the associations of a broad range of socio-demographic characteristics with COVID-19 vaccine uptake, refusal of vaccination, and reasons for refusal among the respondents.

RESULTS

4211 women were included in the analysis. 11% of them were vaccinated against COVID-19, 76% were willing to get vaccinated, 13% were unwilling to get vaccinated. Fear of side effects was the most commonly stated reason for refusing vaccination (69%). Factors significantly and positively associated with being vaccinated against COVID-19 were age, higher education, urban residency, having savings, partial instead of complete income loss during the pandemic, and usage of modern contraceptives. Factors significantly and positively associated with refusing vaccination against COVID-19 were urban residency and current pregnancy, while age, having savings, and using modern contraceptives were factors associated with a lower likelihood of refusing vaccination, albeit with varying statistical significance. Few factors were strongly related to the stated reasons for refusing the vaccines; the fear of side effects significantly increased with age, while having received negative information on the vaccines was significantly less common among women with higher education.

CONCLUSIONS

This study documents a low COVID-19 vaccination rate and a high willingness to get vaccinated among Ugandan women. Positive age and education gradients in vaccine uptake point to inequity in access to vaccination, potentially resulting from prioritizations of groups at particularly high risk. Refusal to be vaccinated was relatively low and systematic factors behind vaccine refusal were hardly to be found, even less so for particular reasons given for refusal.

Global inequities in access to COVID-19 health products and technologies: A political economy analysis

This paper presents a political economy analysis of global inequities in access to COVID-19 vaccines, treatments, and diagnostic tests. We adapt a conceptual model used for analysing the political economy of global extraction and health to examine the politico-economic factors affecting access to COVID-19 health products and technologies in four interconnected layers: the social, political, and historical context; politics, institutions, and policies; pathways to ill-health; and health consequences. Our analysis finds that battles over access to COVID-19 products occur in a profoundly unequal playing field, and that efforts to improve access that do not shift the fundamental power imbalances are bound to fail. Inequitable access has both direct effects on health (preventable illness and death) and indirect effects through exacerbation of poverty and inequality. We highlight how the case of COVID-19 products reflects broader patterns of structural violence, in which the political economy is structured to improve and lengthen the lives of those in the Global North while neglecting and shortening the lives of those in the Global South. We conclude that achieving equitable access to pandemic response products requires shifting longstanding power imbalances and the institutions and processes that entrench and enable them.

Transparency in Infectious Disease Research: Meta-research Survey of Specialty Journals

BACKGROUND

Infectious diseases carry large global burdens and have implications for society at large. Therefore, reproducible, transparent research is extremely important.

METHODS

We evaluated transparency indicators (code and data sharing, registration, and conflict and funding disclosures) in the 5340 PubMed Central Open Access articles published in 2019 or 2021 in the 9 most cited specialty journals in infectious diseases using the text-mining R package, rtransparent.

RESULTS

A total of 5340 articles were evaluated (1860 published in 2019 and 3480 in 2021 [of which 1828 were on coronavirus disease 2019, or COVID-19]). Text mining identified code sharing in 98 (2%) articles, data sharing in 498 (9%), registration in 446 (8%), conflict of interest disclosures in 4209 (79%), and funding disclosures in 4866 (91%). There were substantial differences across the 9 journals: 1%-9% for code sharing, 5%-25% for data sharing, 1%-31% for registration, 7%-100% for conflicts of interest, and 65%-100% for funding disclosures. Validation-corrected imputed estimates were 3%, 11%, 8%, 79%, and 92%, respectively. There were no major differences between articles published in 2019 and non-COVID-19 articles in 2021. In 2021, non-COVID-19 articles had more data sharing (12%) than COVID-19 articles (4%).

CONCLUSIONS

Data sharing, code sharing, and registration are very uncommon in infectious disease specialty journals. Increased transparency is required.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance and Hesitancy among Healthcare Workers in Lusaka, Zambia; Findings and Implications for the Future

The uptake of COVID-19 vaccines is critical to address the severe consequences of the disease. Previous studies have suggested that many healthcare workers (HCWs) are hesitant to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, further enhancing hesitancy rates within countries. COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy levels are currently unknown among HCWs in Zambia, which is a concern given the burden of infectious diseases in the country. Consequently, this study assessed COVID-19 vaccine acceptance and hesitancy among HCWs in Lusaka, Zambia. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 240 HCWs between August and September 2022, using a semi-structured questionnaire. Multivariable analysis was used to determine the key factors associated with vaccine hesitancy among HCWs. Of the 240 HCWs who participated, 54.2% were females. A total of 72.1% of the HCWs would accept being vaccinated, while 27.9% were hesitant. Moreover, 93.3% of HCWs had positive attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines, with medical doctors having the highest mean attitude score (82%). Encouragingly, HCWs with positive attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccines had reduced odds of being hesitant (AOR = 0.02, 95% CI: 0.01-0.11, p < 0.001). Overall, acceptance of the COVID-19 vaccine among HCWs in Lusaka, Zambia, was high, especially by those with positive attitudes. However, the current hesitancy among some HCWs is a concern. Consequently, there is a need to address this and encourage HCWs to fully promote vaccination programs going forward.

Nationwide analysis of the impact of COVID-19 in patients with a cardiovascular, oncological or chronic pulmonary disease in the context of an Eastern European country with a low vaccination rate, Bulgaria: March 2020-April 2022

OBJECTIVE

This study focused on Bulgarian patient cohorts harbouring a single documented chronic comorbidity-cardiovascular pathology, an oncological disease or a chronic pulmonary diseases (CPD) comparing the outcomes in fully vaccinated and non-vaccinated populations classified by sex and age groups in ambulatory, hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) settings at the national level.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis SETTINGS, PARTICIPANTS AND OUTCOME MEASURES: In total, 1 126 946 patients with confirmed COVID-19, on a national level, were retrospectively analysed between March 2020 and April 2022, using data from the Ministry of Health's United Information Portal, launched in March 2020.

RESULTS

Of all the confirmed 247 441 hospitalised cases of COVID-19, 67 723 (27.3%) had documented cardiovascular disease (CVD), 2140 (0.9%) had confirmed solid malignancy (regardless of stage) and 3243 (1.3%) had established CPD as their only chronic pathology. The number of cumulative deaths in each subgroup was 10 165 (in-hospital=5812 and ICU=4353); 4.0% vaccinated (410/10 165, p<0.001), 344 (in-hospital=196 and ICU=148), 4.9% vaccinated (17/344, p<0.001), 494 (in-hospital=287 and ICU=207) and 5.2% vaccinated (26/494, p<0.001), respectively. Statistical significance (p<0.001) was obtained in favour of reduced ambulatory, hospitalisation and both in-hospital and ICU-related mortality in the vaccinated cohorts, and BNT162b2 was the most effective at preventing mortality in all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

This retrospective analysis shows that patients vaccinated against COVID-19 demonstrated trends of reduced hospitalisations and premature mortality in patients with CVD, solid malignancy or CPD as a single comorbidity.

Burnout and its associated factors among healthcare workers in COVID-19 isolation centres in Khartoum, Sudan: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Burnout prevalence and its consequences on healthcare workers during the Omicron wave are not well investigated in Sudan. This study aims to assess the prevalence of burnout and its associated factors among doctors and nurses during the omicron wave in COVID-19 isolation centres in Khartoum, Sudan.

METHOD

This cross-sectional survey study was conducted at multiple COVID-19 isolation centres in Khartoum state during the omicron wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 between 20th February 2022 and 10th April 2022. A total of 306 doctors and nurses filled out the questionnaire, with a response rate of 64.8℅. They were recruited from 5 isolation centers scattered in the three cities of Khartoum Metropolis. The level of burnout was assessed using an online semi-structured questionnaire based on the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were used for continuous variables and frequencies with percentages for categorical variables. The Chi-square test and Fisher exact test were used to identify variables associated with burnout. Logistic regression was used to determine the factors associated with burnout, and the p-value of ≤ .05 is considered statistically significant.

RESULTS

The prevalence of burnout was 45.7%. Doctors were more likely to have burnout than nurses (OR: 2.01, CI 95% 1.24-3.27; p = 0.005). Also, married healthcare workers were more likely to suffer burnout than single healthcare workers (OR: 3.89, CI 95% 1.41-12.5; P = 0.013). The number of household members (p = 0.035) was associated with burnout among participants.

CONCLUSION

There is a high prevalence of burnout among healthcare workers in Khartoum Isolation Centers, which is more apparent among doctors.

The prevalence of and factors related to reinfection with COVID-19 in Ahvaz, Iran: A comparative cross-sectional study

Background and Aims

Reinfection with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) virus may be as serious as the first infection, exposing people to risks such as admission to hospital or even death. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of and the factors related to reinfection in Ahvaz, Iran.

Methods

This was a comparative cross-sectional study that was conducted on 200 reinfected individuals and 200 people who had once been infected with COVID-19. Infection with COVID-19 was confirmed using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, and those with reinfection had to have a negative PCR test after recovery from the first infection and a positive PCR test for COVID-19 > 90 days after the first infection. Data was collected using a questionnaire and a checklist. Data were analyzed using the Chi-square test, independent t-test, and logistic regression test.

Results

Around 7000 reinfections were observed in this study, and the prevalence of reinfection was 0.59% in Ahvaz City. A large proportion of the participants in the control group, 133 (66.5%) received two doses of COVID-19 vaccines compared with 110 (55%) in the reinfected group (p = 0.003), and 43 (21.5%) of reinfected participants did not receive any vaccine. Older people were 0.982 times more likely to get reinfected with COVID-19 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.966-0.997). Also, those receiving vaccination once or twice were 2.311 and 2.498 times less likely to get reinfected with COVID-19, respectively (95% CI: 1.093-4.887 and 1.281-4.872, respectively).

Conclusion

The findings of this study showed that the prevalence of reinfection among people in Ahvaz City was 0.59%. Older individuals, those without vaccination or with suboptimal vaccination, and people with comorbidities were at a higher risk for reinfection. Health policymakers should pay more attention to factors related to reinfection with COVID-19.

Alternative epidemic indicators for COVID-19 in three settings with incomplete death registration systems

Not all COVID-19 deaths are officially reported, and particularly in low-income and humanitarian settings, the magnitude of reporting gaps remains sparsely characterized. Alternative data sources, including burial site worker reports, satellite imagery of cemeteries, and social media-conducted surveys of infection may offer solutions. By merging these data with independently conducted, representative serological studies within a mathematical modeling framework, we aim to better understand the range of underreporting using examples from three major cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Aden (Yemen), and Khartoum (Sudan) during 2020. We estimate that 69 to 100%, 0.8 to 8.0%, and 3.0 to 6.0% of COVID-19 deaths were reported in each setting, respectively. In future epidemics, and in settings where vital registration systems are limited, using multiple alternative data sources could provide critically needed, improved estimates of epidemic impact. However, ultimately, these systems are needed to ensure that, in contrast to COVID-19, the impact of future pandemics or other drivers of mortality is reported and understood worldwide.

Age-based spatial disparities of COVID-19 incidence rates in the United States counties

COVID-19 incidence disparities have been documented in the literature, but the different driving factors among age groups have yet to be explicitly explained. This study proposes a community-based COVID-19 spatial disparity model, considering different levels of geographic units (individual and community), various contextual variables, multiple COVID-19 outcomes, and different geographic contextual elements. The model assumes the existence of age nonstationarity effects on health determinants, suggesting that health effects of contextual variables vary among place and age groups. Based on this conceptual model and theory, the study selected 62 county-level variables for 1,748 U.S. counties during the pandemic, and created an Adjustable COVID-19 Potential Exposure Index (ACOVIDPEI) using principal component analysis (PCA). The validation was done with 71,521,009 COVID-19 patients in the U.S. from January 2020 through June 2022, with high incidence rates shifting from the Midwest, South Carolina, North Carolina, Arizona, and Tennessee to the West and East coasts. This study corroborates the age nonstationarity effect of health determinants on COVID-19 exposures. These results empirically identify the geographic disparities of COVID-19 incidence rates among age groups and provide the evidentiary guide for targeting pandemic recovery, mitigation, and preparedness in communities.

Association of Country Income Level With the Characteristics and Outcomes of Critically Ill Patients Hospitalized With Acute Kidney Injury and COVID-19

Introduction

Acute kidney injury (AKI) has been identified as one of the most common and significant problems in hospitalized patients with COVID-19. However, studies examining the relationship between COVID-19 and AKI in low- and low-middle income countries (LLMIC) are lacking. Given that AKI is known to carry a higher mortality rate in these countries, it is important to understand differences in this population.

Methods

This prospective, observational study examines the AKI incidence and characteristics of 32,210 patients with COVID-19 from 49 countries across all income levels who were admitted to an intensive care unit during their hospital stay.

Results

Among patients with COVID-19 admitted to the intensive care unit, AKI incidence was highest in patients in LLMIC, followed by patients in upper-middle income countries (UMIC) and high-income countries (HIC) (53%, 38%, and 30%, respectively), whereas dialysis rates were lowest among patients with AKI from LLMIC and highest among those from HIC (27% vs. 45%). Patients with AKI in LLMIC had the largest proportion of community-acquired AKI (CA-AKI) and highest rate of in-hospital death (79% vs. 54% in HIC and 66% in UMIC). The association between AKI, being from LLMIC and in-hospital death persisted even after adjusting for disease severity.

Conclusions

AKI is a particularly devastating complication of COVID-19 among patients from poorer nations where the gaps in accessibility and quality of healthcare delivery have a major impact on patient outcomes.

Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 seroassay sensitivity: a systematic review and modelling study

BackgroundSerological surveys have been the gold standard to estimate numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dynamics of the epidemic, and disease severity. Serological assays have decaying sensitivity with time that can bias their results, but there is a lack of guidelines to account for this phenomenon for SARS-CoV-2.AimOur goal was to assess the sensitivity decay of seroassays for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dependence of this decay on assay characteristics, and to provide a simple method to correct for this phenomenon.MethodsWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 serology studies. We included studies testing previously diagnosed, unvaccinated individuals, and excluded studies of cohorts highly unrepresentative of the general population (e.g. hospitalised patients).ResultsOf the 488 screened studies, 76 studies reporting on 50 different seroassays were included in the analysis. Sensitivity decay depended strongly on the antigen and the analytic technique used by the assay, with average sensitivities ranging between 26% and 98% at 6 months after infection, depending on assay characteristics. We found that a third of the included assays departed considerably from manufacturer specifications after 6 months.ConclusionsSeroassay sensitivity decay depends on assay characteristics, and for some types of assays, it can make manufacturer specifications highly unreliable. We provide a tool to correct for this phenomenon and to assess the risk of decay for a given assay. Our analysis can guide the design and interpretation of serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens and quantify systematic biases in the existing serology literature.

Communication transforms the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children with cancer and their families

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic altered healthcare systems globally, causing delays in care delivery and increased anxiety among patients and families. This study examined how hospital stakeholders and clinicians perceived the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children with cancer and their families.

METHODS

This secondary analysis examined data from a qualitative study consisting of 19 focus groups conducted in 8 languages throughout 16 countries. A codebook was developed with novel codes derived inductively from transcript review. In-depth analysis focused on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on children with cancer and their families.

RESULTS

Eight themes describing the impact of the pandemic on patients and their families were identified and classified into three domains: contributing factors (COVID-19 Policies, Cancer Treatment Modifications, COVID-19 Symptoms, Beliefs), patient-related impacts (Quality of Care, Psychosocial impacts, Treatment Reluctance), and the central transformer (Communication). Participants described the ability of communication to transform the effect of contributing factors on patient-related impacts. The valence of impacts depended on the quality and quantity of communication among clinicians and between clinicians and patients and families.

CONCLUSIONS

Communication served as the central factor impacting whether the COVID-19 pandemic positively or negatively affected children with cancer and families. These findings emphasize the key role communication plays in delivering patient-centered care and can guide future development of communication-centered interventions globally.

Terrorist Attacks in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1970 through 2020: Analysis and Impact from a Counter-Terrorism Medicine Perspective

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has become a hotspot for global terrorism, with nearly 50% of global terror-related deaths occurring in SSA in 2021. With a large population and complex geopolitical and social climate, terrorist activity further burdens an already strained medical system. This study provides a retrospective descriptive analysis of terrorist-related activity in SSA from 1970-2020.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) was performed for the region of SSA from 1970-2020. Data were filtered using the internal database search function for all events in the following countries: Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Comoros, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Lesotho, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mozambique, Namibia, Niger, Nigeria, People's Republic of the Congo, Republic of the Congo, Rhodesia, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda, Zaire, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. Number of attacks, deaths, and injuries, as well as primary weapons types, country where attacks occurred, and primary target types, were collated and analyzed.

RESULTS

A total 19,320 attacks were recorded, resulting in 77,565 deaths and 52,986 injuries. Firearms were the most frequent weapons used (8,745), followed by explosives (6,031), unknown (2,615), and incendiary (1,246), with all others making up the remainder (683.) Private citizens and property were the most frequently targeted entities (8,031), followed by general government facilities (2,582), police (1,854), business (1,446), military (805), diplomatic government facilities (741), and religious figures/institution (678), with all other targets making up the remainder (3,183).

CONCLUSION

The majority of deaths from terrorism in SSA are the result of firearm attacks and explosions. Nigeria, Somalia, South Africa, The Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Sudan have had the largest number of attacks since 1970, and Nigeria has the largest number of people killed and injured. The health implications of terrorist attacks are often compounded by violence and pose unique challenges to governments, populations, and aid organizations. By understanding the impact and scope of terrorist activity in SSA, Counter-Terrorism Medicine (CTM) initiatives can be employed to improve health care outcomes.

Clinical predictors of Covid-19 mortality in a tertiary hospital in Lagos, Nigeria: A retrospective cohort study

Background

The predictors of mortality among patients presenting with severe to critical disease in Nigeria are presently unknown.

Aim

The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19 presenting for admission in a tertiary referral hospital in Lagos, Nigeria.

Patients and Methods

The study was a retrospective study. Patients' sociodemographics, clinical characteristics, comorbidities, complications, treatment outcomes, and hospital duration were documented. Pearson's Chi-square, Fischer's Exact test, or Student's t-test were used to assess the relationship between the variables and mortality. To compare the survival experience across medical comorbidities, Kaplan Meir plots and life tables were used. Univariable and multivariable Cox-proportional hazard analyses were conducted.

Results

A total of 734 patients were recruited. Participants' age ranged from five months to 92 years, with a mean ± SD of 47.4 ± 17.2 years, and a male preponderance (58.5% vs. 41.5%). The mortality rate was 9.07 per thousand person-days. About 73.9% (n = 51/69) of the deceased had one or more co-morbidities, compared to 41.6% (252/606) of those discharged. Patients who were older than 50 years, with diabetes mellitus, hypertension, chronic renal illness, and cancer had a statistically significant relationship with mortality.

Conclusion

These findings call for a more comprehensive approach to the control of non-communicable diseases, the allocation of sufficient resources for ICU care during outbreaks, an improvement in the quality of health care available to Nigerians, and further research into the relationship between obesity and COVID-19 in Nigerians.

Arabic language version of the obsession with COVID-19 scale adaptation and validity evaluation in Saudi sample

Background

The obsession with COVID-19 scale is a reliable and validated scale developed to assess obsessions related to coronavirus infection (COVID-2019) and because of its usefulness, this paper is aiming to develop an Arabic version of the obsession with COVID-19 scale and evaluate its validity. Firstly, scale translated to Arabic through the guidelines of Sousa and Rojjanasriratw for scale translation and adaptation. Then we distributed the final version with some sociodemographic questions and an Arabic version of the COVID-19 fear scale to a convenient sample of college students. Internal consistency, factor analysis, average variable extraction, composite reliability, Pearson correlation, and mean differences has been measured.

Results

Out of 253 students, 233 responded to the survey, where 44.6% of them were female. Calculated Cronbach’s alpha was 0.82, item-total correlations were 0.891–0.905, and inter-item correlations were 0.722–0.805. Factor analysis identified one factor which reflects 80.76% of the cumulative variances. The average variance extracted was 0.80, and the composite reliability was 0.95. The correlation coefficient between the two scales was 0.472.

Conclusions

The Arabic version of obsession with COVID-19 scale has high values of internal consistency, and convergent validity, and has a unidimensional factor that reflects its reliability and validity.

What, how and who: Cost-effectiveness analyses of COVID-19 vaccination to inform key policies in Nigeria

While safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines have achieved high coverage in high-income settings, roll-out remains slow in sub-Saharan Africa. By April 2022, Nigeria, a country of over 200 million people, had only distributed 34 million doses. To ensure the optimal use of health resources, cost-effectiveness analyses can inform key policy questions in the health technology assessment process. We carried out several cost-effectiveness analyses exploring different COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Nigeria. In consultation with Nigerian stakeholders, we addressed three key questions: what vaccines to buy, how to deliver them and what age groups to target. We combined an epidemiological model of virus transmission parameterised with Nigeria specific data with a costing model that incorporated local resource use assumptions and prices, both for vaccine delivery as well as costs associated with care and treatment of COVID-19. Scenarios of vaccination were compared with no vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated in terms of costs per disability-adjusted life years averted and compared to commonly used cost-effectiveness ratios. Viral vector vaccines are cost-effective (or cost saving), particularly when targeting older adults. Despite higher efficacy, vaccines employing mRNA technologies are less cost-effective due to high current dose prices. The method of delivery of vaccines makes little difference to the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. COVID-19 vaccines can be highly effective and cost-effective (as well as cost-saving), although an important determinant of the latter is the price per dose and the age groups prioritised for vaccination. From a health system perspective, viral vector vaccines may represent most cost-effective choices for Nigeria, although this may change with price negotiation.

COVID-19 morbidity in lower versus higher income populations underscores the need to restore lost biodiversity of eukaryotic symbionts

The avoidance of infectious disease by widespread use of 'systems hygiene', defined by hygiene-enhancing technology such as sewage systems, water treatment facilities, and secure food storage containers, has led to a dramatic decrease in symbiotic helminths and protists in high-income human populations. Over a half-century of research has revealed that this 'biota alteration' leads to altered immune function and a propensity for chronic inflammatory diseases, including allergic, autoimmune and neuropsychiatric disorders. A recent Ethiopian study (EClinicalMedicine 39: 101054), validating predictions made by several laboratories, found that symbiotic helminths and protists were associated with a reduced risk of severe COVID-19 (adjusted odds ratio = 0.35; p<0.0001). Thus, it is now apparent that 'biome reconstitution', defined as the artificial re-introduction of benign, symbiotic helminths or protists into the ecosystem of the human body, is important not only for alleviation of chronic immune disease, but likely also for pandemic preparedness.

Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling

We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated to detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, and vaccine breakthrough infections in Florida, USA. We compare the incremental effectiveness for four different distribution strategies at four different levels of vaccine availability, reflecting different income settings' historical COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Our analysis indicates that the best strategy to reduce severe outcomes is to actively target high disease-risk individuals. This was true in every scenario, although the advantage was greatest for the middle-income-country availability assumptions, and relatively modest compared to a simple mass vaccination approach for rapid, high levels of vaccine availability. Ring vaccination, while generally the most effective strategy for reducing infections, ultimately proved least effective at preventing deaths. We also consider using age group as a practical, surrogate measure for actual disease-risk targeting; this approach still outperforms both simple mass distribution and ring vaccination. We also find that the magnitude of strategy effectiveness depends on when assessment occurs (e.g., after delta vs. after omicron variants). However, these differences in absolute benefit for the strategies do not change the ranking of their performance at preventing severe outcomes across vaccine availability assumptions.

Resolving the enigma of Iquitos and Manaus: A modeling analysis of multiple COVID-19 epidemic waves in two Amazonian cities

The two nearby Amazonian cities of Iquitos and Manaus endured explosive COVID-19 epidemics and may well have suffered the world's highest infection and death rates over 2020, the first year of the pandemic. State-of-the-art epidemiological and modeling studies estimated that the populations of both cities came close to attaining herd immunity (>70% infected) at the termination of the first wave and were thus protected. This makes it difficult to explain the more deadly second wave of COVID-19 that struck again in Manaus just months later, simultaneous with the appearance of a new P.1 variant of concern, creating a catastrophe for the unprepared population. It was suggested that the second wave was driven by reinfections, but the episode has become controversial and an enigma in the history of the pandemic. We present a data-driven model of epidemic dynamics in Iquitos, which we also use to explain and model events in Manaus. By reverse engineering the multiple epidemic waves over 2 y in these two cities, the partially observed Markov process model inferred that the first wave left Manaus with a highly susceptible and vulnerable population (≈40% infected) open to invasion by P.1, in contrast to Iquitos (≈72% infected). The model reconstructed the full epidemic outbreak dynamics from mortality data by fitting a flexible time-varying reproductive number [Formula: see text] while estimating reinfection and impulsive immune evasion. The approach is currently highly relevant given the lack of tools available to assess these factors as new SARS-CoV-2 virus variants appear with different degrees of immune evasion.

Treating COVID-19: Targeting the Host Response, Not the Virus

In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), inexpensive generic drugs like statins, ACE inhibitors, and ARBs, especially if used in combination, might be the only practical way to save the lives of patients with severe COVID-19. These drugs will already be available in all countries on the first pandemic day. Because they target the host response to infection instead of the virus, they could be used to save lives during any pandemic. Observational studies show that inpatient statin treatment reduces 28–30-day mortality but randomized controlled trials have failed to show this benefit. Combination treatment has been tested for antivirals and dexamethasone but, with the exception of one observational study in Belgium, not for inexpensive generic drugs. Future pandemic research must include testing combination generic drug treatments that could be used in LMICs.

Health system adaptions to improve care for people living with non-communicable diseases during COVID-19 in low-middle income countries: A scoping review

Background

During the COVID-19 pandemic, access to health care for people living with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) has been significantly disrupted. Calls have been made to adapt health systems and innovate service delivery models to improve access to care. We identified and summarized the health systems adaptions and interventions implemented to improve NCD care and their potential impact on low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

We comprehensively searched Medline/PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, Global Health, PsycINFO, Global Literature on coronavirus disease, and Web of Science for relevant literature published between January 2020 and December 2021. While we targeted articles written in English, we also included papers published in French with abstracts written in English.

Results

After screening 1313 records, we included 14 papers from six countries. We identified four unique health systems adaptations/interventions for restoring, maintaining, and ensuring continuity of care for people living with NCDs: telemedicine or teleconsultation strategies, NCD medicine drop-off points, decentralization of hypertension follow-up services and provision of free medication to peripheral health centers, and diabetic retinopathy screening with a handheld smartphone-based retinal camera. We found that the adaptations/interventions enhanced continuity of NCD care during the pandemic and helped bring health care closer to patients using technology and easing access to medicines and routine visits. Telephonic aftercare services appear to have saved a significant amount of patients' time and funds. Hypertensive patients recorded better blood pressure controls over the follow-up period.

Conclusions

Although the identified measures and interventions for adapting health systems resulted in potential improvements in access to NCD care and better clinical outcomes, further exploration is needed to establish the feasibility of these adaptations/interventions in different settings given the importance of context in their successful implementation. Insights from such implementation studies are critical for ongoing health systems strengthening efforts to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 and future global health security threats for people living with NCDs.

COVID-19 vaccination in children: a public health priority

OBJECTIVE

Covid-19 had a direct impact on children's health. The aim of this review was to analyze epidemiological and clinical data, the consequences of the pandemic, and vaccination aspects in this group.

SOURCES OF DATA

The searches were carried out from January 2020 to November 2022, in the MEDLINE databases (PubMed) and publications of the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Brazilian Society of Pediatrics.

SUMMARY OF FINDINGS

Covid-19 has a mild presentation in most children; however, the infection can progress to the severe form and, in some cases, to MIS-C. The prevalence of the so-called long Covid in children was 25.24%. Moreover, several indirect impacts occurred on the health of children and adolescents. Vaccination played a crucial role in enabling the reduction of severe disease and mortality rates. Children and adolescents, as a special population, were excluded from the initial clinical trials and, therefore, vaccination was introduced later in this group. Despite its importance, there have been difficulties in the efficient implementation of vaccination in the pediatric population. The CoronaVac vaccines are authorized in Brazil for children over three years of age and the pediatric presentations of the Pfizer vaccine have shown significant effectiveness and safety.

CONCLUSIONS

Covid-19 in the pediatric age group was responsible for the illness and deaths of a significant number of children. For successful immunization, major barriers have to be overcome. Real-world data on the safety and efficacy of several pediatric vaccines is emphasized, and the authors need a uniform message about the importance of immunization for all children.

Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVES

The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers.

METHODS

The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors.

RESULTS

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The "zero-COVID" countries experienced the greatest decline.

CONCLUSION

Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.

COVID-19 vaccines and a perspective on Africa

Vaccines have dramatically changed the COVID-19 pandemic. Over 30 vaccines that were developed on four main platforms are currently being used globally, but a deep dissection of the immunological mechanisms by which they operate is limited to only a few of them. Here, we review the evidence describing specific aspects of the modes of action of COVID-19 vaccines; these include innate immunity, trained innate immunity, and mucosal responses. We also discuss the use of COVID-19 vaccines in the African continent which is ridden with inequality in its access to vaccines and vaccine-related immunological research. We argue that strengthening immunology research in Africa should inform on fundamental aspects of vaccination, including the relevance of genetics, trained innate immunity, and microbiome diversity.

High anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among unvaccinated mother-child pairs from a rural setting in north-eastern Tanzania during the second wave of COVID-19

Background

The reported infection rates and burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in low- and middle-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa, are relatively low compared to the rates and burden in Europe and America, partly due to limited testing capability. Unlike many countries, Tanzania has implemented neither mass screening nor restrictive measures such as lockdowns to date. The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in rural mainland Tanzania is largely unknown.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted between April and October 2021 to assess the anti-SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence among mother-child pairs (n = 634 children, n = 518 mothers) in a rural setting in north-eastern Tanzania.

Results

A very high prevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody titres was found, with seroprevalence rates ranging from 29% among mothers and 40% among children, with a dynamic peak in seropositivity incidence at the end of July/early August being revealed. Significant differences in age, socioeconomic status, and body composition were associated with seropositivity in mothers and children. No significant associations were observed between seropositivity and comorbidities, including anaemia, diabetes, malaria, and HIV.

Conclusions

The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a rural region of Tanzania during 2021 was high, indicating a much higher infection rate in rural Tanzania compared to that reported in the UK and USA during the same period. Ongoing immune surveillance may be vital to monitoring the burden of viral infection in rural settings without access to molecular genotyping, where the load of communicable diseases may mask COVID-19. Surveillance could be implemented in tandem with the intensification of vaccination strategies.

Civil society and medical product access in Africa: Lessons from COVID-19

Understanding health as a human right creates a legal obligation on countries to ensure access to timely, acceptable, and affordable health care. We highlight the importance of a meaningful role for civil society in improving access to well-regulated quality medical products in Africa; to support and be part of a regional social contract approach following the access issues that have been particularly evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. We argue that African communities have a clear participatory role as important stakeholders in the regulatory lifecycle. Solidarity is important for a cohesive approach as formal government healthcare infrastructure may be minimal for some countries, with little training of communities available for disease management and insufficient money to fund people to organise and deliver health care. Some of the issues for civil society engagement with multi-stakeholders, and possible mitigating strategies, are tabulated to initiate discussion on facilitators and concerns of governments and other stakeholders for meaningful participation by patients, communities and civil society within a regional regulatory lifecycle approach. Solidarity is called for to address issues of equity, ethics and morality, stigmatisation and mutual empowerment - to sustainably support the region and national governments to develop greater self-sufficiency throughout the regulatory lifecycle. By creating a participatory space, patients, communities and civil society can be invited in with clear missions and supported by well-defined guidance to create a true sense of solidarity and social cohesion. Strong leadership coupled with the political will to share responsibilities in all aspects of this work is key.