Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands; the results of a consensus model

The Economic Value of Rotavirus Vaccination When Optimally Implemented in a High-Income Country

Rotavirus vaccination was introduced in high-income countries starting in 2006, with no recommendation for optimal implementation. Economic evaluations were presented before launch projecting potential impacts. Few economic reassessments have been reported following reimbursement. This study compares the short- to long-term economic value of rotavirus vaccination between pre-launch predictions and real-world evidence collected over 15 years, proposing recommendations for optimal vaccine launch. A cost-impact analysis compared rotavirus hospitalisation data after the introduction of vaccination between pre-launch modelled projections and observed data collected in the RotaBIS study in Belgium. A best model fit of the observed data was used to simulate launch scenarios to identify the optimal strategy. Data from other countries in Europe were used to confirm the potential optimal launch assessment. The Belgian analysis in the short term (first 8 years) indicated a more favourable impact for the observed data than predicted pre-launch model results. The long-term assessment (15 years) showed bigger economic disparities in favour of the model-predicted scenario. A simulated optimal vaccine launch, initiating the vaccination at least 6 months prior the next seasonal disease peak with an immediate very high vaccine coverage, indicated important additional potential gains, which would make vaccination very cost impactful. Finland and the UK are on such a route leading to long-term vaccination success, whereas Spain and Belgium have difficulties in achieving optimum vaccine benefits. An optimal launch of rotavirus vaccination may generate substantial economic gains over time. For high-income countries that are considering implementing rotavirus vaccination, achieving an optimal launch is a critical factor for long-term economic success.

The performance of licensed rotavirus vaccines and the development of a new generation of rotavirus vaccines: a review

Rotavirus, which causes acute gastroenteritis and severe diarrhea, has posed a great threat to children worldwide over the last 30 y. Since no specific drugs and therapies against rotavirus are available, vaccination is considered the most effective method of decreasing the morbidity and mortality related to rotavirus-associated gastroenteritis. To date, six rotavirus vaccines have been developed and licensed by local governments. Notably, Rotarix™ and RotaTeq™ have been recommended as universal agents against rotavirus infection by the World Health Organization; however, lower efficacies were found in less-developed and developing regions with medium and high child mortality than well-developed ones with low child mortality. For now, two promising novel vaccines, Rotavac™ and RotaSiil™ were pre-qualified by the World Health Organization in 2018. Other rotavirus vaccines in the pipeline including neonatal strain (RV3-BB) and several non-replicating rotavirus vaccines with a parenteral delivery strategy are currently undergoing investigation, with the potential to improve the performance of, and eliminate the safety concerns associated with, previous live oral rotavirus vaccines. This paper reviews the important developments in rotavirus vaccines in the last 20 y and discusses problems and challenges that require investigation in the future.

Rotavirus Vaccination of Infants Delayed and Limited within the National Immunization Programme in the Netherlands: An Opportunity Lost

In this study, we estimated the benefits of rotavirus vaccination for infants had the rotavirus vaccine been introduced in the Netherlands as of its market authorization in 2006. An age-structured, deterministic cohort model was developed to simulate different birth cohorts over a period of 15 years from 2006 until 2021, comparing both universal and targeted high-risk group vaccination to no vaccination. Different scenarios for the duration of protection (5 or 7 years) and herd immunity (only for universal vaccination) were analyzed. All birth cohorts together included 2.6 million infants, of which 7.9% were high-risk individuals, and an additional 13.2 million children between 1-15 years born prior to the first cohort in 2006. The costs and health outcomes associated with rotavirus vaccination were calculated per model scenario and discounted at 4% and 1.5%, respectively. Our analysis reveals that, had rotavirus vaccination been implemented in 2006, it would have prevented 356,800 (51% decrease) and 32,200 (5% decrease) cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis after universal and targeted vaccination, respectively. Over the last 15 years, this would have led to significant avoided costs and quality-adjusted life year losses for either vaccination strategy with the most favorable outcomes for universal vaccination. Clearly, an opportunity has been lost.

Comparing the Analysis and Results of a Modified Social Accounting Matrix Framework with Conventional Methods of Reporting Indirect Non-Medical Costs

BACKGROUND

Assessing the societal perspective in economic evaluations of new interventions requires estimates of indirect non-medical costs caused by the disease. Different methods exist for measuring the labor input function as a surrogate for these costs. They rarely specify the effect of health on labor and who gains and who loses money. Social accounting matrix (SAM) is an established framework that evaluates public policies with multiple perspectives that could help.

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated the use of a modified SAM to assess money flows between different economic agents resulting in economic transactions following policy changes of medical interventions.

METHODS

We compared conventional methods of measuring indirect non-medical costs related to rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands with a modified SAM framework. To compare the outcome of each method, we calculated returns on investment (ROI) as the net amount of money per euro invested in the vaccine. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were carried out for each method, focusing on critical variables with the largest impact on indirect cost estimates.

RESULTS

The ROI was higher for the modified SAM (1.33) than for the conventional methods assessing income calculations (range - 0.178 to 1.22). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed wide distributions in the ROI estimates, with variation in the variable impact on the indirect cost results per method selected.

CONCLUSIONS

In contrast to conventional methods, the SAM approach provides detailed and comprehensive assessments of the impact of new interventions on the indirect non-medical costs and the financial interactions between agents, disclosing useful information for different stakeholders.

Cost-utility Analysis of Rotavirus Vaccines Including the Latest Evidence and Data as of June 2020 in Japan

BACKGROUND

In several health economic analyses of rotavirus vaccines in Japan, all were not cost-effective from the healthcare payer perspective (HPP) but generally cost-effective from the societal perspective (SP). However, few studies have incorporated clinically significant factors of vaccine herd immunity, convulsions with gastroenteritis, encephalopathies, nosocomial infections, death, and intussusception as a vaccine side effect. A cost-utility analysis incorporating these were conducted.

METHODS

We used Bakir's decision-tree model and data in Japan with 94% coverage rate, 5-year time horizon, and 2% discount. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) with a willingness-to-pay of Japanese Yen (JPY) 5 million from HPP and SP. Scenario 1 examined items based on existing research; scenario 2 additionally examined the above-mentioned items. In scenario 2, break-even prices were determined, and one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

In scenario 1, the ICER was JPY 6,057,281 from the HPP and dominant from the SP. In scenario 2, it was JPY 3,713,488 from the HPP. From the HPP in scenario 2, break-even prices were JPY 34,227 for an ICER of JPY 5 million and JPY 17,798 for cost-saving. One-way sensitivity analysis showed ICERs fluctuated widely with ambulatory visits and vaccination costs. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ICERs of 54.8% were less than the willingness-to-pay. In scenario 2, from the SP, vaccines were dominant.

CONCLUSION

From the HPP in scenario 2, the vaccines were cost-effective. In the sensitivity analyses, ICERs also improved from the HPP over previous studies. Herd immunity for ambulatory visits contributed most to the decline.

Economic evaluation of the introduction of rotavirus vaccine in Hong Kong

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus is a common cause of severe gastroenteritis in young children in Hong Kong (HK) with a high economic burden. This study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing rotavirus vaccination into the HK Government's Childhood Immunisation Programme (CIP) and to include the potential protective effect of the vaccine against seizures.

METHODS

A decision-support model was customised to estimate the potential impact, cost-effectiveness and benefit-risk of rotavirus vaccination in children below 5 years over the period 2020-2029 in HK. Two doses of Rotarix® and three doses of RotaTeq® were each compared to no vaccination. Rotavirus treatment costs were calculated from a governmental health sector perspective (i.e., costs of public sector treatment) and an overall health sector perspective (both governmental and patient, i.e., costs of public sector treatment, private sector treatment, transport and diapers). We ran probabilistic and deterministic uncertainty analyses.

RESULTS

Introduction of rotavirus vaccination in HK could prevent 49,000 (95% uncertainty interval: ~44,000-54,000) hospitalisations of rotavirus gastroenteritis and seizures and result in ~50 (95% uncertainty interval: ~25-85) intussusception hospitalisations, over the period 2020-2029 (a benefit-risk ratio of ~1000:1), compared to a scenario with no public or private sector vaccine use. The discounted vaccination cost would be US$51-57 million over the period 2020-2029 based on per-course prices of US$72 (Rotarix®) or US$78 (RotaTeq®), but this would be offset by discounted treatment cost savings of US$70 million (government) and US$127 million (governmental and patient health sector). There was a greater than 94% probability that the vaccine could be cost-saving irrespective of the vaccine product or perspective considered. All deterministic 'what-if' scenarios were cost-saving from an overall health sector perspective (governmental and patient).

CONCLUSIONS

Rotavirus vaccination is likely to be cost-saving and have a favourable benefit-risk profile in HK. Based on the assumptions made, our analysis supports its introduction into CIP.

Family Spillover Effects in Pediatric Cost-Utility Analyses

BACKGROUND

Childhood illness can impose significant costs and health strains on family members, but these are not routinely captured by pediatric economic evaluations. This review investigated how family "spillover effects" related to costs and health outcomes are considered in pediatric cost-utility analyses (CUAs).

METHODS

We reviewed pediatric CUAs published between 2000 and 2015 using the Tufts Medical Center Cost-effectiveness Analysis (CEA) Registry and the Pediatric Economic Database Evaluation (PEDE) Registry. We selected studies conducted from the societal perspective and included in both registries. We investigated how frequently family spillover was incorporated into analyses, and how the inclusion of spillover health effects and costs changed CUA results.

RESULTS

We found 142 pediatric CUAs meeting inclusion criteria. Of those, 105 (72%) considered either family spillover costs (n = 98 time costs, n = 33 out-of-pocket costs, n = 2 caregiver healthcare costs) or health outcomes (n = 15). Twenty-four studies included 43 pairs of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with and without spillover. In 19 pairs of ICERs, adding spillover changed the ICER enough to cross a common cost-effectiveness threshold (i.e., $50,000/QALY, $100,000/QALY, $150,000/QALY; values are in 2016 US$). Incorporating spillover generally made interventions more cost-effective (n = 18; 42%), or did not change CUA results enough to cross a threshold (n = 24; 56%). Including family spillover reduced ICERs by 31% ($40,000/QALY) on average.

CONCLUSION

Most pediatric CUAs conducted from a societal perspective include family costs but fewer include family health effects. Inclusion of family spillover effects tends to make CUA results more favorable. Future pediatric CUAs should aim to more fully incorporate the family burden of illness.

Updated cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit analysis of two infant rotavirus vaccination strategies in a high-income, low-endemic setting

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Since 2013, a biennial rotavirus pattern has emerged in the Netherlands with alternating high and low endemic years and a nearly 50% reduction in rotavirus hospitalization rates overall, while infant rotavirus vaccination has remained below 1% throughout. As the rotavirus vaccination cost-effectiveness and risk-benefit ratio in high-income settings is highly influenced by the total rotavirus disease burden, we re-evaluated two infant vaccination strategies, taking into account this recent change in rotavirus epidemiology.

METHODS

We used updated rotavirus disease burden estimates derived from (active) surveillance to evaluate (1) a targeted strategy with selective vaccination of infants with medical risk conditions (prematurity, low birth weight, or congenital conditions) and (2) universal vaccination including all infants. In addition, we added herd protection as well as vaccine-induced intussusception risk to our previous cost-effectiveness model. An age- and risk-group structured, discrete-time event, stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch pediatric population was used to estimate the costs and effects of each vaccination strategy.

RESULTS

The targeted vaccination was cost-saving under all scenarios tested from both the healthcare payer and societal perspective at rotavirus vaccine market prices (€135/child). The cost-effectiveness ratio for universal vaccination was €51,277 at the assumed vaccine price of €75/child, using a societal perspective and 3% discount rates. Universal vaccination became cost-neutral at €32/child. At an assumed vaccine-induced intussusception rate of 1/50,000, an estimated 1707 hospitalizations and 21 fatal rotavirus cases were averted by targeted vaccination per vaccine-induced intussusception case. Applying universal vaccination, an additional 571 hospitalizations and <  1 additional rotavirus death were averted in healthy children per vaccine-induced intussusception case.

CONCLUSION

While universal infant rotavirus vaccination results in the highest reductions in the population burden of rotavirus, targeted vaccination should be considered as a cost-saving alternative with a favorable risk-benefit ratio for high-income settings where universal implementation is unfeasible because of budget restrictions, low rotavirus endemicity, and/or public acceptance.

Multiplex tests to identify gastrointestinal bacteria, viruses and parasites in people with suspected infectious gastroenteritis: a systematic review and economic analysis

BACKGROUND

Gastroenteritis is a common, transient disorder usually caused by infection and characterised by the acute onset of diarrhoea. Multiplex gastrointestinal pathogen panel (GPP) tests simultaneously identify common bacterial, viral and parasitic pathogens using molecular testing. By providing test results more rapidly than conventional testing methods, GPP tests might positively influence the treatment and management of patients presenting in hospital or in the community.

OBJECTIVE

To systematically review the evidence for GPP tests [xTAG^® (Luminex, Toronto, ON, Canada), FilmArray (BioFire Diagnostics, Salt Lake City, UT, USA) and Faecal Pathogens B (AusDiagnostics, Beaconsfield, NSW, Australia)] and to develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of GPP tests with conventional testing in England and Wales.

DATA SOURCES

Multiple electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and the Cochrane Database were searched from inception to January 2016 (with supplementary searches of other online resources).

REVIEW METHODS

Eligible studies included patients with acute diarrhoea; comparing GPP tests with standard microbiology techniques; and patient, management, test accuracy or cost-effectiveness outcomes. Quality assessment of eligible studies used tailored Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2, Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards and Philips checklists. The meta-analysis included positive and negative agreement estimated for each pathogen. A de novo decision tree model compared patients managed with GPP testing or comparable coverage with patients managed using conventional tests, within the Public Health England pathway. Economic models included hospital and community management of patients with suspected gastroenteritis. The model estimated costs (in 2014/15 prices) and quality-adjusted life-year losses from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective.

RESULTS

Twenty-three studies informed the review of clinical evidence (17 xTAG, four FilmArray, two xTAG and FilmArray, 0 Faecal Pathogens B). No study provided an adequate reference standard with which to compare the test accuracy of GPP with conventional tests. A meta-analysis (of 10 studies) found considerable heterogeneity; however, GPP testing produces a greater number of pathogen-positive findings than conventional testing. It is unclear whether or not these additional 'positives' are clinically important. The review identified no robust evidence to inform consequent clinical management of patients. There is considerable uncertainty about the cost-effectiveness of GPP panels used to test for suspected infectious gastroenteritis in hospital and community settings. Uncertainties in the model include length of stay, assumptions about false-positive findings and the costs of tests. Although there is potential for cost-effectiveness in both settings, key modelling assumptions need to be verified and model findings remain tentative.

LIMITATIONS

No test-treat trials were retrieved. The economic model reflects one pattern of care, which will vary across the NHS.

CONCLUSIONS

The systematic review and cost-effectiveness model identify uncertainties about the adoption of GPP tests within the NHS. GPP testing will generally correctly identify pathogens identified by conventional testing; however, these tests also generate considerable additional positive results of uncertain clinical importance.

FUTURE WORK

An independent reference standard may not exist to evaluate alternative approaches to testing. A test-treat trial might ascertain whether or not additional GPP 'positives' are clinically important or result in overdiagnoses, whether or not earlier diagnosis leads to earlier discharge in patients and what the health consequences of earlier intervention are. Future work might also consider the public health impact of different testing treatments, as test results form the basis for public health surveillance.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD2016033320.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Inclusion of the value of herd immunity in economic evaluations of vaccines. A systematic review of methods used

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this review were to identify vaccine economic evaluations that include herd immunity and describe the methodological approaches used.

METHODS

We used Kim and Goldie's search strategy from a systematic review (1976-2007) of modelling approaches used in vaccine economic evaluations and additionally searched PubMed/MEDLINE and Embase for 2007-2015. Studies were classified according to modelling approach used. Methods for estimating herd immunity effects were described, in particular for the static models.

RESULTS

We identified 625 economic evaluations of vaccines against human-transmissible diseases from 1976 to 2015. Of these, 172 (28%) included herd immunity. While 4% of studies included herd immunity in 2001, 53% of those published in 2015 did this. Pneumococcal, human papilloma and rotavirus vaccines represented the majority of studies (63%) considering herd immunity. Ninety-five of the 172 studies utilised a static model, 59 applied a dynamic model, eight a hybrid model and ten did not clearly state which method was used. Relatively crude methods and assumptions were used in the majority of the static model studies.

CONCLUSION

The proportion of economic evaluations using a dynamic model has increased in recent years. However, 55% of the included studies used a static model for estimating herd immunity. Values from a static model can only be considered reliable if high quality surveillance data are incorporated into the analysis. Without this, the results are questionable and they should only be included in sensitivity analysis.

Impact of vaccine herd-protection effects in cost-effectiveness analyses of childhood vaccinations. A quantitative comparative analysis

BACKGROUND

Inclusion of vaccine herd-protection effects in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) can impact the CEAs-conclusions. However, empirical epidemiologic data on the size of herd-protection effects from original studies are limited.

METHODS

We performed a quantitative comparative analysis of the impact of herd-protection effects in CEAs for four childhood vaccinations (pneumococcal, meningococcal, rotavirus and influenza). We considered CEAs reporting incremental-cost-effectiveness-ratios (ICERs) (per quality-adjusted-life-years [QALY] gained; per life-years [LY] gained or per disability-adjusted-life-years [DALY] avoided), both with and without herd protection, while keeping all other model parameters stable. We calculated the size of the ICER-differences without vs with-herd-protection and estimated how often inclusion of herd-protection led to crossing of the cost-effectiveness threshold (of an assumed societal-willingness-to-pay) of $50,000 for more-developed countries or X3GDP/capita (WHO-threshold) for less-developed countries.

RESULTS

We identified 35 CEA studies (20 pneumococcal, 4 meningococcal, 8 rotavirus and 3 influenza vaccines) with 99 ICER-analyses (55 per-QALY, 27 per-LY and 17 per-DALY). The median ICER-absolute differences per QALY, LY and DALY (without minus with herd-protection) were $15,620 (IQR: $877 to $48,376); $54,871 (IQR: $787 to $115,026) and $49 (IQR: $15 to $1,636) respectively. When the target-vaccination strategy was not cost-saving without herd-protection, inclusion of herd-protection always resulted in more favorable results. In CEAs that had ICERs above the cost-effectiveness threshold without herd-protection, inclusion of herd-protection led to crossing of that threshold in 45% of the cases. This impacted only CEAs for more developed countries, as all but one CEAs for less developed countries had ICERs below the WHO-cost-effectiveness threshold even without herd-protection. In several analyses, recommendation for the adoption of the target vaccination strategy depended on the inclusion of the herd protection effect.

CONCLUSIONS

Inclusion of herd-protection effects in CEAs had a substantial impact in the estimated ICERs and made target-vaccination strategies more attractive options in almost half of the cases where ICERs were above the societal-willingness to pay threshold without herd-protection. More empirical epidemiologic data are needed to determine the size of herd-protection effects across diverse settings and also the size of negative vaccine effects, e.g. from serotype substitution.

Economic evaluation of routine infant rotavirus immunisation program in Japan

Two rotavirus vaccines are currently available in Japan. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of routine infant rotavirus immunisation program without defining which vaccine to be evaluated, which reflects the current deliberation at the Health Science Council in charge of Immunisation and Vaccine established by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare of Japan. Three ICERs were estimated, one from payers' perspective and 2 from societal perspective depending on the scenarios to uptake vaccines. The health statuses following the birth cohort were as follows: not infected by rotavirus, asymptomatic infection, outpatients after infection, hospitalised after infection, developing encephalitis/encephalopathy followed by recovery, sequelae, and death. Costs of per course of vaccination was ¥30,000 (US$283; US$1 = ¥106). The model runs for 60 months with one month cycle. From payers' perspective, estimated ICERs were ¥6,877,000 (US$64,877) per QALY. From societal perspective, immunisation program turns out to be cost-saving for 75% simultaneous vaccination scenario, while it is at ¥337,000 (US$3,179) per QALY gained with vaccine alone scenario. The probability of rotavirus immunisation program to be under ¥5,000,000 (US$47,170) per QALY was at 19.8%, 40.7%, and 75.6% when costs per course of vaccination were set at ¥30,000 (US$283), ¥25,000 (US$236), and ¥20,000 (US$189), respectively. Rotavirus immunisation program has a potential to be cost-effective from payers' perspective and even cost-saving from societal perspective in Japan, however, caution should be taken with regard to the interpretation of the results as cost-effectiveness is critically dependent on vaccination costs.

Sources and Characteristics of Utility Weights for Economic Evaluation of Pediatric Vaccines: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analysis of pediatric vaccines for infectious diseases often requires quality-of-life (utility) weights.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how utility weights have been elicited and used in this context.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted of studies published between January 1990 and July 2013 that elicited or used utility weights in cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccines for pediatric populations. The review focused on vaccines for 17 infectious diseases and is presented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology.

RESULTS

A total of 6410 titles and abstracts and 225 full-text articles were reviewed. Of those selected for inclusion (n = 101), 15 articles described the elicitation of utility weights and 86 described economic modeling studies using utilities. Various methods were used to generate utilities, including time trade-off, contingent valuation, and willingness to pay, as well as a preference-based measure with associated value sets, such as the EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire or the Health Utilities Index. In modeling studies, the source of utilities used was often unclear, poorly reported, or based on weak underlying evidence. We found no articles that reported on the elicitation or use of utilities in diphtheria, polio, or tetanus.

CONCLUSIONS

The scarcity of appropriate utility weights for vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in children and a lack of standardization in their use in economic assessments limit the ability to accurately assess the benefits associated with interventions to prevent infectious diseases. This is an issue that should be of concern to those making decisions regarding the prevention and treatment of infectious childhood illnesses.

Dissecting the indirect effects caused by vaccines into the basic elements

Vaccination directly protects vaccinated individuals, but it also has the potential for indirectly protecting the unvaccinated in a population (herd protection). Unintended negative consequences such as the re-manifestation of infection, mainly expressed as age shifts, result from vaccination programs as well. We discuss the necessary conditions for achieving optimal herd protection (i.e., high quality vaccine-induced immunity, substantial effect on the force of infection, and appropriate vaccine coverage and distribution), as well as the conditions under which age shifts are likely to occur. We show examples to illustrate these effects. Substantial ambiguity in observing and quantifying these indirect vaccine effects makes accurate evaluation troublesome even though the nature of these outcomes may be critical for accurate assessment of the economic value when decision makers are evaluating a novel vaccine for introduction into a particular region or population group. More investigation is needed to identify and develop successful assessment methodologies for precisely analyzing these outcomes.

Rotavirus vaccination in Europe: drivers and barriers

Rotavirus gastroenteritis is a vaccine-preventable disease that confers a high medical and economic burden in more developed countries and can be fatal in less developed countries. Two vaccines with high efficacy and good safety profiles were approved and made available in Europe in 2006. We present an overview of the status of rotavirus vaccination in Europe. We discuss the drivers (including high effectiveness and effect of universal rotavirus vaccination) and barriers (including low awareness of disease burden, perception of unfavourable cost-effectiveness, and potential safety concerns) to the implementation of universal rotavirus vaccination in Europe. By February, 2014, national universal rotavirus vaccination had been implemented in Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Finland, Greece, Luxembourg, Norway, and the UK. Four other German states have issued recommendations and reimbursement is provided by sickness funds. Other countries were at various stages of recommending or implementing universal rotavirus vaccination.

Systematic review of the economic value of diarrheal vaccines

Diarrheal disease is a leading cause of child mortality in low-income settings and morbidity across a range of settings. A growing number of studies have addressed the economic value of new and emerging vaccines to reduce this threat. We conducted a systematic review to assess the economic value of diarrheal vaccines targeting a range of pathogens in different settings. The majority of studies focused on the economic value of rotavirus vaccines in different settings, with most of these concluding that vaccination would provide significant economic benefits across a range of vaccine prices. There is also evidence of the economic benefits of cholera vaccines in specific contexts. For other potential diarrheal vaccines data are limited and often hypothetical. Across all target pathogens and contexts, the evidence of economic value focuses the short-term health and economic gains. Additional information is needed on the broader social and long-term economic value of diarrhea vaccines.

Economic and psychosocial impact of rotavirus infection in Spain: a literature review

Severe rotavirus gastroenteritis is common in children under 5 years of age. A literature review was performed to investigate the economic and psychosocial impact of rotavirus infection in children in this age group. We retrieved 56 articles on the economic burden of the disease in Europe, 18 of them reported data from Spain; 8 articles were retrieved analysing its psychosocial impact. In Spain, rotavirus is responsible for 14% to 30% of all cases of gastroenteritis, and a quarter of these require hospitalisation. It is also associated with high use of health care resources (emergency and primary care visits). Rotavirus gastroenteritis costs the Spanish national health system EUR 28 million a year and causes productivity loss in two-thirds of parents (mean of 4 days). Taking into account these costs, it was estimated that implementing universal vaccination could prevent 76% to 95% of hospital admissions due to rotavirus gastroenteritis, as well as reduce emergency and paediatric visits, nosocomial infections, and days missed from work (77% reduction). Rotavirus gastroenteritis also has a considerable psychosocial impact on the family, although it is difficult to compare results due to the diversity of study designs and the low specificity of the measurement tools used. It also causes high stress among parents, adding to their workload and adversely affecting their quality of life.

Budget impact and cost-utility analysis of universal infant rotavirus vaccination in Spain

Rotavirus is not included in the Spanish mass infant vaccination schedule but has also not been economically evaluated for its inclusion. We analysed cost-utility of the universal infant rotavirus vaccination using RotaTeq® versus no vaccination in Spain. We also carried out a budget impact analysis and determined the effect on results of different variables introduced in the model. A deterministic Markov model was built considering loss of quality of life for children and their parents, and introducing direct and indirect costs updated to 2011. The introduction of the vaccination using RotaTeq® as a universal infant vaccination would increase the annual health care budget in 10.43 million euro and would result in a gain of an additional Quality Adjusted Life Year at a cost of 280,338€ from the healthcare system perspective and 210,167€ from the societal perspective. The model was stable to variable modifications. To sum up, according to our model and estimates, the introduction of a universal infant rotavirus vaccination with RotaTeq® in Spain would cause a large impact on the health care budget and would not be efficient unless significant variations in vaccine price, vaccine efficacy and/or utilities took place.

Effect of breastfeeding promotion interventions on cost-effectiveness of rotavirus immunization in Indonesia

BACKGROUND

Rotavirus infection has been reported to be responsible for the majority of severe diarrhea in children under-5-years-old in Indonesia. Breast milk is considered to give protection against rotavirus infection. Increasing breastfeeding promotion programs could be an alternative target to reduce the incidence of rotavirus diarrhea. This study aims to investigate the effect of breastfeeding promotion interventions on cost-effectiveness of rotavirus immunization in Indonesia, focusing on breastfeeding education and support interventions.

METHODS

An age-structured cohort model was developed for the 2011 Indonesia birth cohort. We compared four interventions in scenarios: (i) base-case (I₀) reflecting the current situation for the population of under-5-years-old, (ii) with an additional breastfeeding education intervention (I₁), (iii) with a support intervention on initiation and duration (I₂) and (iv) with both of these two interventions combined (I₃). The model applied a 5-years time horizon, with 1 month analytical cycles for children less than 1 year of age and annually thereafter. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine the economic acceptability and affordability of rotavirus vaccination.

RESULTS

Rotavirus immunization would effectively reduce severe cases of rotavirus during the first 5 years of a child's life even assuming various breastfeeding promotion interventions. The total yearly vaccine cost would amount to US$ 64 million under the market vaccine price. Cost-effectiveness would increase to US$ 153 per quality-adjusted-life-year (societal perspective) with an optimal breastfeeding promotion intervention. Obviously, this is much lower than the 2011 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of US$ 3,495. Affordability results showed that at the market vaccine price, rotavirus vaccination could be affordable for the Indonesian health system.

CONCLUSIONS

Rotavirus immunization would be a highly cost-effective public health intervention for Indonesia even under various breastfeeding promotion interventions based on the WHO's criteria for cost-effectiveness in universal immunization.

Economic evaluation of vaccines: specificities and future challenges illustrated by recent European examples

This study reviews the current challenges in the economic evaluation of vaccines with a focus on European countries. In particular, the type of clinical evidence generally available, the impact of discounting for time preference and the use of modeling to derive valid cost-effectiveness assessments are considered. First, the characteristics of evidence for vaccines are discussed, as well as potential difficulties faced when using evidence-based medicine applied to curative drugs to interpret vaccine evidence. Then, discounting is considered and specific examples illustrating issues with different types of discounting are described, taking HPV as the example. Finally, the need for sometimes complex dynamic models for vaccines is explored, and specific types of models are reviewed, keeping into consideration the adage "complex when needed, straightforward if allowed."

Cost-effectiveness of targeted vaccination to protect new-borns against pertussis: comparing neonatal, maternal, and cocooning vaccination strategies

Pertussis (whooping cough) is a severe infectious disease in infants less than 6 months old. Mass vaccination programmes have been unable to halt transmission effectively. Strategies to protect new-borns against infection include vaccination of the neonate or the mother directly after birth (cocooning), or the mother during pregnancy (maternal). Here we investigate the cost-effectiveness of these three strategies in the Netherlands. Costs for health care utilization and productivity losses, as well as impact on quality of life were calculated for a 10-year vaccination programme, assuming that vaccine-induced immunity lasts 5 years. Cocooning was the most attractive option from a cost-effectiveness viewpoint (€89,000/QALY). However, both cocooning and maternal vaccination would reduce the disease burden in infants and mothers vaccinated (about 17-20 QALY/year). Specifically, with a persistent epidemic as seen in 2012, there is need for reconsidering the vaccination schedules against pertussis in order to increase protection of the vulnerable new-borns.

Nosocomial rotavirus gastroenterocolitis in a large tertiary paediatric hospital in Warsaw, 2006-2010

INTRODUCTION

Rotaviruses are the leading cause of community-acquired and nosocomial gastroenterocolitis in children. There are limited data concerning the epidemiology of nosocomial rotavirus gastroenterocolitis (NRVG) in Central European countries, including Poland. The aim of our study was to analyse the epidemiology of NRVG in a large tertiary hospital in Warsaw.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

We analysed retrospectively data of 63 173 patients aged 0-18 years hospitalized in the period 2006-2010. Nosocomial rotavirus gastroenterocolitis was defined as acute gastroenterocolitis (> 3 loose, or looser than normal, stools in 24 h and/or vomiting), confirmed with rapid immunochromatographic test (BioMaxima, Poland), if symptoms developed > 48 h after admission.

RESULTS

In total 575 cases of NRVG were diagnosed. The cumulative attack rate of NRVG was calculated as 0.91% (95% CI: 0.85-0.98%). The incidence density was 2.05/1000 bed-days (95% CI: 0.19-0.22/1000 bed-days). The mean proportion of NRVG among all rotavirus infections was 24%. The highest rates of NRVG were noted at wards where the mean duration of hospital stay was longer than 5 days (General Paediatrics and Neonatal Pathology). Seventy-one percent of children with NRVG were younger than 2 years. The mean duration of hospital stay of children with NRVG was longer than the average duration of hospitalization (11.6 days vs. 4.6 days, p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed a relevant incidence of NRVG, which can prolong the children's hospital stay. Limiting the number of NRVG is important to improve patients' safety and to avoid additional costs. Routine vaccination against rotavirus diseases could reduce the number of NRVG.

Targeted rotavirus vaccination of high-risk infants; a low cost and highly cost-effective alternative to universal vaccination

BACKGROUND

The cost-effectiveness of universal rotavirus (RV) vaccination is controversial in developed countries. As a result, RV vaccination programs do not currently exist in most European countries. Hospitalization is the main driver of RV disease costs, and prematurity, low birth weight (LBW) and underlying medical conditions have been associated with RV hospitalization and complications. We investigated the cost-effectiveness of targeted RV vaccination of high-risk infants and universal RV vaccination versus no vaccination.

METHODS

Disease burden, mortality and healthcare costs of RV hospitalization for children with and without prematurity, LBW and congenital pathology were quantified in two hospital-based observational studies in the Netherlands. Cost-effectiveness analysis was based on an age-structured stochastic multi-cohort model of the Dutch population comparing universal RV vaccination and targeted vaccination of high-risk infants to no vaccination. The primary endpoint was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), with a threshold of €35,000/quality-adjusted life year (QALY) from the healthcare provider perspective. Sensitivity analyses included vaccine price and coverage, herd-immunity and QALY losses.

RESULTS

A total of 936 children with RV infection were included. Prematurity, LBW and congenital pathology were associated with increased risks of RV hospitalization (relative risks (RR) ranging from 1.6 to 4.4), ICU admission (RR ranging from 4.2 to 7.9), prolonged hospital stay (1.5 to 3.0 excess days) and higher healthcare costs (€648 to €1,533 excess costs). Seven children succumbed due to RV complications, all belonging to the high-risk population. Targeted RV vaccination was highly cost-effective and potentially cost-saving from the healthcare provider perspective with ICERs below €20,000/QALY in all scenarios with total (undiscounted) annual healthcare costs between -€0.1 and €0.5 million/year. Results were most sensitive to mortality rates, but targeted vaccination remained highly cost-effective up to reductions of 90% compared to observed mortality. Universal RV vaccination was not considered cost-effective (mean ICER: €60,200/QALY) unless herd-immunity and caretaker QALY losses were included and vaccine prices were €60 at most (mean ICER: €21,309/QALY).

CONCLUSION

We recommend targeted RV vaccination for high-risk infants in developed countries.

A critical literature review of health economic evaluations of rotavirus vaccination

Two licensed vaccines are available to prevent RVGE in infants. A worldwide critical review of economic evaluations of these vaccines was conducted. The objective was to describe differences in methodologies, assumptions and inputs and determine the key factors driving differences in conclusions. 68 economic evaluations were reviewed. RV vaccination was found to be cost-effective in developing countries, while conclusions varied between studies in developed countries. Many studies found that vaccination was likely to be cost-effective under some scenarios, such as lower prices scenarios, inclusion of herd protection, and/or adoption of a societal perspective. Other reasons for variability included uncertainty around healthcare visits incidence and lack of consensus on quality of life (QoL) valuation for infants and caregivers. New evidence on the vaccination effectiveness in real-world, new ways of modeling herd protection and assessments of QoL in children could help more precisely define the conditions under which RV vaccination would be cost-effective in developed countries.

Economics of vaccines revisited

Performing a total health economic analysis of a vaccine newly introduced into the market today is a challenge when using the conventional cost-effectiveness analysis we normally apply on pharmaceutical products. There are many reasons for that, such as: the uncertainty in the total benefit (direct and indirect) to be measured in a population when using a cohort model; (1) appropriate rules about discounting the long-term impact of vaccines are absent jeopardizing therefore their value at the initial investment; (2) the presence of opposite contexts when introducing the vaccine in developed vs. the developing world with high benefits, low initial health care investment for the latter vs. marginal benefit and high cost for the former; with a corresponding paradox for the vaccine becoming very cost-effective in low income countries but rather medium in middle low to high middle income countries; (3) and the type of trial assessment for the newer vaccines is now often performed with immunogenicity reaction instead of clinical endpoints which still leaves questions on their real impact and their head-to-head comparison. (4.)

An update of "Cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands: the results of a Consensus Rotavirus Vaccine model"

BACKGROUND

To update a cost-effectiveness analysis of rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands previously published in 2011.

METHODS

The rotavirus burden of disease and the indirect protection of older children and young adults (herd protection) were updated.

RESULTS

When updated data was used, routine infant rotavirus vaccination in the Netherlands would potentially become an even more cost-effective strategy than previously estimated with the incremental cost per QALY at only €3,000-4,000. Break-even total vaccination costs were indicated at €92-122, depending on the applied threshold.

CONCLUSIONS

We concluded that the results on potentially favourable cost-effectiveness in the previous study remained valid, however, the new data suggested that previous results might represent an underestimation of the economic attractiveness of rotavirus vaccination.

Impact of rotavirus vaccination on hospitalisations in Belgium: comparing model predictions with observed data

Background

Published economic assessments of rotavirus vaccination typically use modelling, mainly static Markov cohort models with birth cohorts followed up to the age of 5 years. Rotavirus vaccination has now been available for several years in some countries, and data have been collected to evaluate the real-world impact of vaccination on rotavirus hospitalisations. This study compared the economic impact of vaccination between model estimates and observed data on disease-specific hospitalisation reductions in a country for which both modelled and observed datasets exist (Belgium).

Methods

A previously published Markov cohort model estimated the impact of rotavirus vaccination on the number of rotavirus hospitalisations in children aged <5 years in Belgium using vaccine efficacy data from clinical development trials. Data on the number of rotavirus-positive gastroenteritis hospitalisations in children aged <5 years between 1 June 2004 and 31 May 2006 (pre-vaccination study period) or 1 June 2007 to 31 May 2010 (post-vaccination study period) were analysed from nine hospitals in Belgium and compared with the modelled estimates.

Results

The model predicted a smaller decrease in hospitalisations over time, mainly explained by two factors. First, the observed data indicated indirect vaccine protection in children too old or too young for vaccination. This herd effect is difficult to capture in static Markov cohort models and therefore was not included in the model. Second, the model included a ‘waning’ effect, i.e. reduced vaccine effectiveness over time. The observed data suggested this waning effect did not occur during that period, and so the model systematically underestimated vaccine effectiveness during the first 4 years after vaccine implementation.

Conclusions

Model predictions underestimated the direct medical economic value of rotavirus vaccination during the first 4 years of vaccination by approximately 10% when assessing hospitalisation rates as compared with observed data in Belgium.

Rotavirus-related hospitalizations are responsible for high seasonal peaks in all-cause pediatric hospitalizations

BACKGROUND

Seasonal rotavirus (RV) epidemics partly overlap with those of other common childhood infections, thereby generating enormous, but poorly quantified, pressure on hospital resources during winter and spring. We assessed RV contribution to seasonal excess in all-cause pediatric hospitalizations and RV hospitalization incidence rate in an observational study.

METHODS

The study was conducted among pediatric wards in 3 general hospitals and 1 pediatric tertiary care center. Numbers of RV hospitalizations were determined from 5-year data on confirmed RV hospitalizations and adjusted for RV underreporting, assessed through active surveillance for acute gastroenteritis during the 2011 RV season. Incidence rate and RV contribution to all-cause hospitalizations were determined on hospital administrative data and population statistics.

RESULTS

RV accounted for 6.2% (95% confidence interval: 5.3-7.1) of all-cause pediatric hospitalizations among general hospitals and 3.1% (95% confidence interval: 2.9-3.3) at the tertiary care center, adjusted for the proportion RV underreporting among gastroenteritis patients (33%) as observed during active surveillance. Among general hospitals, there was a 30% increase in all-cause hospitalizations during the active season of common childhood infections compared with summer months. RV contributed 31% to seasonal excess in all-cause pediatric hospitalizations, representing 12.9% of hospitalizations between January and May. RV hospitalizations incidence rate in the population was 510/100,000 child-years <5 years (95% confidence interval: 420-600).

CONCLUSION

RV is one of the main causes of seasonal peaks in pediatric hospitalizations, and as such contributes significantly to periodic high bed capacity pressures and associated adverse effects. RV vaccination benefits in this respect should be considered in decision-making processes.

Nosocomial rotavirus infections: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Nosocomial rotavirus (nRV) infections represent an important part of rotavirus (RV)-associated morbidity. The incidence of nRV influences the estimated total RV disease burden, an important determinant of cost-effectiveness of RV vaccination programs. Our aim is to summarize the existing evidence and produce reliable estimates of nRV incidence, in pediatric settings in Europe and North America.

METHODS

We searched electronic databases for studies on nRV incidence among pediatric inpatients. To ascertain complete case reporting, only studies describing active nRV surveillance in their methodology were included. Random effects meta-analysis was performed. Meta-regression was used to obtain results adjusted for important study characteristics.

RESULTS

Twenty surveillance studies met the quality criteria for inclusion. The pooled unadjusted nRV incidence was 2.9 per 100 hospitalizations (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6-4.4). Incidence was significantly influenced by studies' seasonality-months (RV epidemic season only or year-round) and the age range of included patients. Highest nRV incidence was found for children <2 years of age, hospitalized during the epidemic months (8.1/100 hospitalizations; 95% CI: 6.4-9.9). The adjusted year-round nRV incidence estimate without age restriction was 0.4/100 hospitalizations (95% CI: 0.1-2.1) and 0.7 (95% CI: 0.0-1.8) for children <5 years of age.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first meta-analysis to summarize results of surveillance studies on nRV incidence. nRV is an important problem among hospitalized infants during the winter months. The lower season and age-adjusted nRV incidence estimate seems more appropriate for application in population-based burden of disease analysis.

Health economics of rotavirus immunization in Vietnam: potentials for favorable cost-effectiveness in developing countries

INTRODUCTION

Rotavirus is the most common cause of severe diarrhoea worldwide. Vietnam is situated in the region of high rotavirus infection incidence and eligible for financial support to introduce rotavirus vaccines into the Expanded Program of Immunization (EPI) from the GAVI. This study was designed to assess the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus immunization in Vietnam, explicitly the use of Rotateq(®) and to assess the affordability of implementing universal rotavirus immunization based on GAVI-subsidized vaccine price in the context of Vietnamese healthcare system for the next 5 years.

METHODOLOGY

An age-structured cohort model was developed for the 2009 birth cohort in Vietnam. Two strategies were compared: one being the current situation without vaccination, and the other being mass universal rotavirus vaccination. The time horizon of the model was 5 years with time cycles of 1 month for children less than 1 year of age and annual analysis thereafter. Outcomes included mild, moderate, severe cases and death. Multiple outcomes per rotavirus infection are possible in the model. Monte Carlo simulations were used to examine the acceptability and affordability of the rotavirus vaccination. All costs were expressed in 2009 US$.

RESULTS

Rotavirus vaccination would not completely protect young children against rotavirus infection due to partial nature of vaccine immunity, however, would effectively reduce severe cases of rotavirus by roughly 55% during the first 5 years of life. Under GAVI-subsidized vaccine price (US$ 0.3/dose), the vaccine cost would amount to US$ 5.5 million per annum for 3-dose of the Rotateq(®) vaccine. In the base-case, the incremental cost per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) was US$ 665 from the health system perspective, much lower than per-capita GDP of ∼US$ 1150 in 2009. Affordability results showed that at the GAVI-subsidized vaccine price, rotavirus vaccination could be affordable for Vietnamese health system.

CONCLUSION

Rotavirus vaccination in Vietnam would be a cost-effective health intervention. Vaccination only becomes affordable if the country receives GAVI's financial support due to the current high market vaccine price. Given the high mortality rate of under-five-year children, the results showed that rotavirus immunization is the "best hope" for prevention of rotavirus-related diarrhoeal disease in Vietnam. In the next five years, Vietnam is definitely in debt to financial support from international organizations in implementing rotavirus immunization. It is recommended that new rotavirus vaccine candidates be developed at cheaper price to speed up the introduction of rotavirus immunization in the developing world in general.

Comparative review of three cost-effectiveness models for rotavirus vaccines in national immunization programs; a generic approach applied to various regions in the world

BACKGROUND

This study aims to critically review available cost-effectiveness models for rotavirus vaccination, compare their designs using a standardized approach and compare similarities and differences in cost-effectiveness outcomes using a uniform set of input parameters.

METHODS

We identified various models used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination. From these, results using a standardized dataset for four regions in the world could be obtained for three specific applications.

RESULTS

Despite differences in the approaches and individual constituting elements including costs, QALYs Quality Adjusted Life Years and deaths, cost-effectiveness results of the models were quite similar. Differences between the models on the individual components of cost-effectiveness could be related to some specific features of the respective models. Sensitivity analysis revealed that cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination is highly sensitive to vaccine prices, rotavirus-associated mortality and discount rates, in particular that for QALYs.

CONCLUSIONS

The comparative approach followed here is helpful in understanding the various models selected and will thus benefit (low-income) countries in designing their own cost-effectiveness analyses using new or adapted existing models. Potential users of the models in low and middle income countries need to consider results from existing studies and reviews. There will be a need for contextualization including the use of country specific data inputs. However, given that the underlying biological and epidemiological mechanisms do not change between countries, users are likely to be able to adapt existing model designs rather than developing completely new approaches. Also, the communication established between the individual researchers involved in the three models is helpful in the further development of these individual models. Therefore, we recommend that this kind of comparative study be extended to other areas of vaccination and even other infectious disease interventions.