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Ouyang G, Pan G, Li Q, Li S, Liu T, Yi X, Liu Z. Global burden of acute hepatitis E between 1990 and 2019 and projections until 2030. Liver Int 2024; 44:1329-1342. [PMID: 38426633 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/05/2023] [Revised: 01/17/2024] [Accepted: 02/16/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS Acute hepatitis E (AHE) is still a public health issue worldwide. Here, we report the global burden of AHE in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 by age, sex and socio-demographic index (SDI), and predict the future trends to 2030. METHODS Data on AHE were collected from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and joinpoint analysis were used to determine the burden trend. RESULTS In 2019, there were 19.47 million (95% UI, 16.04 to 23.37 million) incident cases of AHE globally, with a 19% increase since 1990. Age-standardized rate (ASR) of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), prevalent and incident cases declined from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, the ASR of incidence, prevalence and DALYs due to HEV infection were highest in the same regions of South Asia for both sexes. Southern Sub-Saharan Africa presented the highest increases in the ASR for incidence of HEV infection in both males (AAPC = .25) and females (AAPC = .24) from 1990 to 2019. Incident cases are higher in males than females before 55-59 years old. The SDI values were negatively correlated with the age-standardized DALYs. Between 2019 and 2030, the ASR for incidence and prevalence of HEV for both sexes showed an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS Although the overall ASR of AHE decreased, the burden of AHE remains an underappreciated problem for society. The findings may provide useful information for policymakers to develop appropriate strategies aimed at reducing the burden of AHE.
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Affiliation(s)
- Guoqing Ouyang
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Division of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China
| | - Guangdong Pan
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Qiuyun Li
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Shuang Li
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Liuzhou Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Diseases Precision Diagnosis Research Center of Engineering Technology, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department General Surgery, Luzhai People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
| | - Xiaolei Yi
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Changsha Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Changsha, Hunan, China
| | - Zhipeng Liu
- Department of General Surgery, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China
- Division of Hepatobiliary Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China
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Jin W, Huang K, Zhang M, Gao W, Luo Q, Ye X, Yuan Z. Global, regional, and national cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts in 1990-2044: A cross-sectional and age-period-cohort forecast study. Cancer Epidemiol 2024; 91:102583. [PMID: 38815482 DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2024.102583] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/09/2024] [Revised: 04/18/2024] [Accepted: 05/03/2024] [Indexed: 06/01/2024]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding the current status and future trends of cancer burdens by systems provides important information for specialists, policymakers, and specific risk populations. METHODS The aim of this study was to compare the current and future cancer burdens of the gastrointestinal (GI) and respiratory tracts in terms of their magnitude and distribution. Data from a total of eight cancers of the digestive and respiratory tracts in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database were collected. The age-standardized incidence/death rates (ASIR/ASDRs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were analyzed. Future trends were predicted with Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) and NORDPRED models. RESULTS In 2019, there was a significant increase in DALY for both digestive and respiratory tract cancers compared to 1990. Meanwhile, ASIR increased slightly and ASDR decreased notably. In 2019, the global cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts were 38568363.53 and 66912328.72 in DALY, 34.28 and 55.32 in ASIR, and 656.82 and 808.22 in ASDR per 100,000 population with changes of +54.63% and +43.93%, +2.92% and +5.65%, and -17.39% and -26.83% compared to those in 1990, respectively. Significant cross-regional differences in the cancer burdens were observed among the regions. Compared to four representative chronic diseases, the burden of cancers showed less remission and greater global inequalities. The burdens of both digestive and respiratory tract cancers were higher in males than in females in terms of the ASIR, ASDR, and DALY. The incidence and mortality rates of respiratory tract cancers were up to 3-4 times higher in males than in females, whereas the difference between male and female rates of digestive tract cancers was relatively smaller. The main risk factor associated with all kinds of digestive and respiratory tract cancers is tobacco, leading to 18.5 in ASDR and 3.38×107 in DALY for respiratory tract cancers; 8.29 in ASDR and 1.60×107 in DALY for digestive tract cancers, in 2019. Additionally, alcohol use contributes to most digestive and respiratory tract cancers (1.23/1.03 in ASDR and 1.60×106/2.57×106 in DALY for respiratory tract cancers; 4.19/3.82 in ASDR and 4.49×106/8.06×106 in DALY for digestive tract cancers), except for stomach cancer and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer. The cancer burdens of respiratory and digestive tracts are likely to decrease substantially between 2020 and 2044. For most metrics, except for the ASIR and male-to-female ratios of ASDR and ASDALY in digestive tract cancers, the worldwide variances of burden metrics have been decreasing in the past decades and will possibly maintain stable trends in the future. CONCLUSIONS The epidemiology of respiratory and GI tract cancers has common features and individual characteristics that are reflected in geography, age characteristics, and risk factors. Current epidemiological status, future trends, and the globalization of these disease burdens are important factors for making scientific planning of resources to minimize the cancer burden metrics and their cross-regional inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Weiqiu Jin
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Research Institute, School of Medicine, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC), Chengdu 610041, China; Shanghai Lung Cancer Center, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China.
| | - Kaichen Huang
- Department of Cardiovascular Surgery, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
| | - Mengwei Zhang
- Department of Liver Surgery, Renji Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China
| | - Weitong Gao
- Department of Gastroenterology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200025, China
| | - Qingquan Luo
- Shanghai Lung Cancer Center, Shanghai Chest Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200030, China.
| | - Xiaodan Ye
- Department of Radiology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China; Shanghai Institute of Medical Imaging, Shanghai, 200032, China; Department of Cancer Center, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China.
| | - Zheng Yuan
- Department of Radiology, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai 200011, China.
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Chen J, Li C, Bu CLN, Wang Y, Qi M, Fu P, Zeng X. Global burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to kidney dysfunction with projection into 2040. Chin Med J (Engl) 2024:00029330-990000000-01088. [PMID: 38809055 DOI: 10.1097/cm9.0000000000003143] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2023] [Indexed: 05/30/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Spatiotemporal disparities exist in the disease burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) attributable to kidney dysfunction, which has been poorly assessed. The present study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal trends of the global burden of NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction and to predict future trends. METHODS Data on NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction, quantified using deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), were extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) Study in 2019. Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated with linear regression to assess the changing trend. Pearson's correlation analysis was used to determine the association between ASR and Sociodemographic Index (SDI) for 21 GBD regions. A Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was used to predict future trends up to 2040. RESULTS Between 1990 and 2019, the absolute number of deaths and DALYs from NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction increased globally. The death cases increased from 1,571,720 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1,344,420-1,805,598) in 1990 to 3,161,552 (95% UI: 2,723,363-3,623,814) in 2019 for both sexes combined. Both the ASR of death and DALYs increased in Andean Latin America, the Caribbean, Central Latin America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and Southern Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, the age-standardized metrics decreased in the high-income Asia Pacific region. The relationship between SDI and ASR of death and DALYs was negatively correlated. The BAPC model indicated that there would be approximately 5,806,780 death cases and 119,013,659 DALY cases in 2040 that could be attributed to kidney dysfunction. Age-standardized death of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and CKD attributable to kidney dysfunction were predicted to decrease and increase from 2020 to 2040, respectively. CONCLUSION NCDs attributable to kidney dysfunction remain a major public health concern worldwide. Efforts are required to attenuate the death and disability burden, particularly in low and low-to-middle SDI regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jing Chen
- Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
| | - Chunyang Li
- West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
| | - Ci Li Nong Bu
- Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
| | - Yujiao Wang
- Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
| | - Mei Qi
- Division of Nephrology, The Second People's Hospital of Tibet Autonomous Region, Lhasa, Tibet 850030, China
| | - Ping Fu
- Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
- West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
| | - Xiaoxi Zeng
- Division of Nephrology, Kidney Research Institute, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
- West China Biomedical Big Data Center, West China Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan 610041, China
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Yu J, Liu C, Zhang J, Wang X, Song K, Wu P, Liu F. Global, regional, and national burden of pancreatitis in older adults, 1990-2019: A systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2019. Prev Med Rep 2024; 41:102722. [PMID: 38646072 PMCID: PMC11026839 DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102722] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2023] [Revised: 04/07/2024] [Accepted: 04/09/2024] [Indexed: 04/23/2024] Open
Abstract
Background To describe the past, present and future burden of pancreatitis in older adults, and to explore cross-national inequalities across socio-demographic index (SDI). Methods Data on pancreatitis in older adults, including mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates, were collected from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. Temporal trends were measured using joinpoint analyses and predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Additionally, the unequal distribution of the burden of pancreatitis in older adults was quantified. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths and DALYs due to pancreatitis in older adults has been increasing annually. However, in most regions of the world, age-standardized death rates (ASDR) and age-standardized DALYs rates have been declining. The burden of pancreatitis in older adults was highest in low SDI region, primarily affecting the population aged 65-74, with a greater burden on males than females. Furthermore, from 1990 to 2019, absolute and relative cross-national inequalities in pancreatitis among older adults have remained largely unchanged. It is projected that in the next 11 years, the number of deaths in older adults due to pancreatitis will continue to increase, but the ASDR is expected to decline. Conclusion Over the past 30 years, the ASDR and age-standardized DALYs rate of pancreatitis in older adults have shown a decline globally, but the absolute burden continues to increase. Cross-national health inequalities persist. Therefore, it is necessary to develop targeted intervention measures and enhance awareness among this vulnerable population regarding the risk factors associated with pancreatitis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiangtao Yu
- Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Chunlong Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, the Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, Fushun 113001, China
| | - Xiangyu Wang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Bengbu Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Kun Song
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Bengbu Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Panpan Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People's Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang 236000, China
| | - Fubao Liu
- Department of General Surgery, The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230000, China
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Wu B, Li Y, Shi B, Zhang X, Lai Y, Cui F, Bai X, Xiang W, Geng G, Liu B, Jiao M, Wu Q, Yang H, Zhang C, Liu X, Tian Y, Li H. Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. J Adv Res 2024; 59:189-199. [PMID: 37422280 PMCID: PMC11082062 DOI: 10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2023] [Revised: 06/07/2023] [Accepted: 07/05/2023] [Indexed: 07/10/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden. OBJECTIVES To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement. METHODS Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years. RESULTS In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development. CONCLUSIONS The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Wu
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Ye Li
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China.
| | - Baoguo Shi
- Department of Economics, School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China.
| | - Xiyu Zhang
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China; Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Yongqiang Lai
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Fuqiang Cui
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaodan Bai
- Department of Economics, School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Wenjing Xiang
- Department of Economics, School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Guihong Geng
- Department of Economics, School of Economics, Minzu University of China, Beijing, China
| | - Bei Liu
- Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
| | - Mingli Jiao
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Qunhong Wu
- Department of Social Medicine, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Huiying Yang
- The Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Chenxi Zhang
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Xinwei Liu
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Yulu Tian
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
| | - Hongyu Li
- Research Center of Health Policy and Management, School of Health Management, Harbin Medical University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, China
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Lv JJ, Kong XM, Zhao Y, Li XY, Guo ZL, Zhang YJ, Cheng ZH. Global, regional and national epidemiology of allergic disorders in children from 1990 to 2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. BMJ Open 2024; 14:e080612. [PMID: 38589255 PMCID: PMC11015187 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-080612] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2023] [Accepted: 03/25/2024] [Indexed: 04/10/2024] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This modelling study aimed to estimate the burden for allergic diseases in children during a period of 30 years. DESIGN Population-based observational study. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The data on the incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for childhood allergic diseases, such as atopic dermatitis (AD) and asthma, were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 online database. This data set spans various groups, including different regions, ages, genders and Socio-Demographic Indices (SDI), covering the period from 1990 to 2019. RESULTS In 2019, there were approximately 81 million children with asthma and 5.6 million children with AD worldwide. The global incidence of asthma in children was 20 million. Age-standardised incidence rates showed a decrease of 4.17% for asthma, from 1075.14 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI), 724.63 to 1504.93) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 1030.33 (95% UI, 683.66 to 1449.53) in 2019. Similarly, the rates for AD decreased by 5.46%, from 594.05 (95% UI, 547.98 to 642.88) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 561.61 (95% UI, 519.03 to 608.29) in 2019. The incidence of both asthma and AD was highest in children under 5 years of age, gradually decreasing with age. Interestingly, an increase in SDI was associated with a rise in the incidence of both conditions. However, the mortality rate and DALYs for asthma showed a contrasting trend. CONCLUSIONS Over the past three decades, there has been a worldwide increase in new asthma and AD cases, even though mortality rates have significantly declined. However, the prevalence of these allergic diseases among children varies considerably across regions, countries and age groups. This variation highlights the need for precise prevalence assessments. These assessments are vital in formulating effective strategies for prevention and treatment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jia-Jie Lv
- Department of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang-Meng Kong
- Department of Cardiology, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yan Zhao
- Department of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Department of Nursing, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Xin-Yu Li
- Department of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
- Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhi-Lin Guo
- Department of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Yuan-Jie Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
| | - Zhi-Hua Cheng
- Department of Neurosurgery, Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
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Miao X, Yao T, Dong C, Chen Z, Wei W, Shi Z, Xu T, Shao J, Niu Q, Rui D, Hu Y, Yan Y. Global, regional, and national burden of non-communicable diseases attributable to occupational asbestos exposure 1990-2019 and prediction to 2035: worsening or improving? BMC Public Health 2024; 24:832. [PMID: 38500093 PMCID: PMC10946175 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-18099-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/22/2023] [Accepted: 02/14/2024] [Indexed: 03/20/2024] Open
Abstract
Understanding the burden associated with occupational asbestos exposure on a global and regional scale is necessary to implement coordinated prevention and control strategies. By the GBD Study 2019, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of the non-communicable diseases burden attributable to occupational asbestos exposure. In 2019, 239,330 deaths and 4,189,000 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) worldwide due to occupational asbestos exposure occurred. 1990-2019, deaths and DALYs attributed to occupational asbestos exposure increased by 65.65% and 43.66%, respectively. Age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) decreased, with the most rapid declines in high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions, with average annual percent change (AAPC) of - 1.05(95%CI: -1.2, -0.89) and -1.53(95%CI: -1.71, -1.36), respectively. Lung cancer, mesothelioma and ovarian cancer were the top three contributors to the increase in deaths and DALYs, accounting for more than 96%. AAPCs of ASMR and ASDR were positively associated with SDI. Global deaths from occupational asbestos exposure were predicted to increase and ASMR to decrease by 2035, mostly in males. Due consideration should be given to the susceptibility of the elderly, the lag of asbestos onset, and the regional differences, and constantly improve the prevention and control measures of occupational asbestos exposure and related diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xinlu Miao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Teng Yao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Chenxian Dong
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Zuhai Chen
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Wanting Wei
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Zhengyang Shi
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Tongtong Xu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Jianjiang Shao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
| | - Qiang Niu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Crucial Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security of The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Dongsheng Rui
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Crucial Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security of The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Yunhua Hu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China.
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Crucial Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security of The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
| | - Yizhong Yan
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China.
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Crucial Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security of The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China.
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Xu T, Dong C, Shao J, Huo C, Chen Z, Shi Z, Yao T, Gu C, Wei W, Rui D, Li X, Hu Y, Ma J, Niu Q, Yan Y. Global burden of maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2035: worsening or improving? Front Nutr 2024; 11:1343772. [PMID: 38425484 PMCID: PMC10902107 DOI: 10.3389/fnut.2024.1343772] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/24/2023] [Accepted: 01/30/2024] [Indexed: 03/02/2024] Open
Abstract
Background and aims Maternal malnutrition is a major global public health problem that can lead to serious maternal diseases. This study aimed to analyze and predict the spatio-temporal trends in the burden of maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition, and to provide a basis for scientific improvement of maternal malnutrition and targeted prevention of maternal disorders. Methods Data on maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition, including number of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), population attributable fractions (PAFs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDRs) were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to describe their epidemiological characteristics by age, region, year, and type of disease. A log-linear regression model was used to calculate the annual percentage change (AAPC) of ASMR or ASDR to reflect their temporal trends. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates to 2035. Results Global number of deaths and DALYs for maternal disorders attributable to malnutrition declined by 42.35 and 41.61% from 1990 to 2019, with an AAPC of -3.09 (95% CI: -3.31, -2.88) and -2.98 (95% CI: -3.20, -2.77) for ASMR and ASDR, respectively. The burden was higher among younger pregnant women (20-29 years) in low and low-middle socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, whereas it was higher among older pregnant women (30-39 years) in high SDI region. Both ASMR and ASDR showed a significant decreasing trend with increasing SDI. Maternal hemorrhage had the highest burden of all diseases. Global deaths are predicted to decline from 42,350 in 2019 to 38,461 in 2035, with the ASMR declining from 1.08 (95% UI: 0.38, 1.79) to 0.89 (95% UI: 0.47, 1.31). Conclusion Maternal malnutrition is improving globally, but in the context of the global food crisis, attention needs to be paid to malnutrition in low SDI regions, especially among young pregnant women, and corresponding measures need to be taken to effectively reduce the burden of disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tongtong Xu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Chenxian Dong
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Jianjiang Shao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Chaojing Huo
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Zuhai Chen
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Zhengyang Shi
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Teng Yao
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Chenyang Gu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Wanting Wei
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
| | - Dongsheng Rui
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Xinjiang, Shihezi, China
| | - Xiaoju Li
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Xinjiang, Shihezi, China
| | - Yunhua Hu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Xinjiang, Shihezi, China
| | - Jiaolong Ma
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Xinjiang, Shihezi, China
| | - Qiang Niu
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Xinjiang, Shihezi, China
| | - Yizhong Yan
- Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory for Prevention and Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases and Public Health Security, The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, Shihezi University, Shihezi, Xinjiang, China
- Key Laboratory of Xinjiang Endemic and Ethnic Diseases (Ministry of Education), School of Medicine, Shihezi University, Xinjiang, Shihezi, China
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Chen J, Qiu Y, Wu W, Yang R, Li L, Yang Y, Yang X, Xu L. Trends and Projection of the Incidence of Active Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Southwestern China: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis. JMIR Public Health Surveill 2023; 9:e48015. [PMID: 38157236 PMCID: PMC10787335 DOI: 10.2196/48015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/08/2023] [Revised: 06/19/2023] [Accepted: 10/31/2023] [Indexed: 01/03/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The control of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is critical for achieving the vision of World Health Organization's End TB goal. OBJECTIVE This study analyzes the temporal trends in PTB incidence associated with age, period, and birth cohorts from 2006 to 2020 in Yunnan, China; projects the PTB burden till 2030; and explores the drivers of PTB incidence. METHODS The aggregated PTB incidence rates between 2005 and 2020 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System. We used the age-period-cohort model to evaluate the age, period, and cohort effects on PTB incidence. We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project future PTB incidence from 2021 to 2030. We applied the decomposition algorithm to attribute the incidence trends to population aging, population growth, and age-specific changes from 2006 to 2030. RESULTS From 2006 to 2020, the PTB incidence in Yunnan was relatively stable, although the absolute number showed an increase. The net drift was -1.56% (95% CI -2.41% to -0.70%). An M-shaped bimodal local drift and a longitudinal age curve were observed. The overall local drift was below zero for most age groups except for the age groups of 15-19 years (2.37%, 95% CI -0.28% to 5.09%) and 50-54 years (0.41%, 95% CI -1.78% to 2.64%). The highest risk of PTB incidence was observed in the age group of 65-69 years, and another peak was observed in the age group of 20-24 years. Downward trends were observed for both period and cohort effects, but the cohort effect trends were uneven. A higher risk was observed for the birth cohorts of 1961-1970 (rate ratio [RR]1961-1965=1.10, 95% CI 0.88-1.38; RR1966-1970=1.11, 95% CI 0.92-1.37) and 2001-2010 (RR2001-2005=0.92, 95% CI 0.63-1.34; RR2006-2010=0.84, 95% CI 0.45-1.58) than for the adjacent cohorts. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model projected that PTB incidence will continually increase from 2021 to 2030 and that PTB incidence in 2030 will be 2.28 times higher than that in 2006. The age-specific change was the leading cause for the growing PTB disease burden. CONCLUSIONS Although there are several levels and measures for PTB control, the disease burden is likely to increase in the future. To bridge the gap of TB-free vision, our study suggests that public health policies be put in place soon, including large-scale active case-finding, priority prevention policies for high-risk older adult and young adult populations, and reduction of possible grandparent-grandchildren transmission patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jinou Chen
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Yubing Qiu
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Wei Wu
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Rui Yang
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Ling Li
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Yunbin Yang
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Xing Yang
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
| | - Lin Xu
- Division of Tuberculosis Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming, China
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Xu Q, Wang X, Bai Y, Zheng Y, Duan J, Du J, Wu X. Trends of non-melanoma skin cancer incidence in Hong Kong and projection up to 2030 based on changing demographics. Ann Med 2023; 55:146-154. [PMID: 36519234 PMCID: PMC9762823 DOI: 10.1080/07853890.2022.2154382] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVE To assess the trends in non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) incidence in Hong Kong from 1990 to 2019 and the associations of age, calendar period, and birth cohort, to make projections to 2030, and to examine the drivers of NMSC incidence. METHODS We assessed the age, calendar period, and birth cohort effects of NMSC incidence in Hong Kong between 1990 and 2019 using an age-period-cohort model. Using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations, we projected the incidence of NMSC in Hong Kong to 2030. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate of NMSC increased from 6.7 per 100,000 population to 8.6 per 100,000 population in men and from 5.4 per 100,000 to 5.9 per 100,000 population in women, among the 19,568 patients in the study (9812 male patients [50.14%]). The annual net drift was 2.00% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-2.50%) for men and 1.53% (95% CI: 0.95-2.11%) for women. Local drifts increased for both sexes above the 35-39-year age group. The period and cohort risk of developing NMSC tended to rise but slowed gradually in the most recent period and post-1975 birth cohort. From 2019 to 2030, it is projected that the number of newly diagnosed NMSC cases in Hong Kong will increase from 564 to 829 in men and from 517 to 863 in women. Population aging, population growth, and epidemiologic changes contributed to the increase in incident NMSCs, with population aging being the most significant contributor. CONCLUSION The slowing of the period and cohort effects suggests that the rising incidence of NMSC is partly attributable to increased awareness and diagnosis. The increasing prevalence of NMSC among the elderly and an aging population will significantly impact the clinical workload associated with NMSC for the foreseeable future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Qingqiang Xu
- Institute of Dermatology, Shaanxi Institution of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shaanxi Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoyan Wang
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yan Bai
- School of Continuing Education, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yan Zheng
- Department of Dermatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Junbo Duan
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
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Tang X, Peng J, Huang S, Xu H, Wang P, Jiang J, Zhang W, Shi X, Shi L, Zhong X, Lü M. Global burden of early-onset colorectal cancer among people aged 40-49 years from 1990 to 2019 and predictions to 2030. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 2023; 149:16537-16550. [PMID: 37712957 DOI: 10.1007/s00432-023-05395-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 09/02/2023] [Indexed: 09/16/2023]
Abstract
PURPOSE To explore the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals aged 40-49 years and provide baseline evidence for routine recommended age adjustment for CRC screening and other clinical decision-making. METHODS We collected data stratified by sex, risk factors, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. Trends in disease burden were analyzed by estimated annual percentage change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted the burden over the following 10 years. RESULTS In 2019, the global rates of incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of EO-CRC in people aged 40-44 years were 11.48 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.50-12.59), 4.35 (4.01-4.70), 72.63 (66.48-79.52), 209.82 (193.55-226.59) per 100,000 population. For people aged 45-49 years, the rates of these four estimates were 19.63 (17.97-21.54), 7.76 (7.16-8.41), 121.73 (110.99-133.84), and 335.83 (310.14-362.91), respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates for both age groups increased while the mortality and DALY rates remained stable from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, high-income North America had the highest incidence and prevalence rates. A low milk diet accounted for the largest proportion of global DALYs in EO-CRC, and there was a tendency for the DALY rate first to increase and then decrease with increasing SDI. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted to increase in the next 10 years. CONCLUSION The current and future burden of EO-CRC among people aged 40-49 years is heavy. Substantial variation exists in disease burden across regions and countries. Urgent screening actions and policies are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaowei Tang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital, No. 28 Fuxing Road, Haidian District, Beijing, 100853, China.
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China.
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China.
| | - Jieyu Peng
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Shu Huang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui County People' Hospital, Huaian, China
- Department of Gastroenterology, Lianshui People' Hospital of Kangda College Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, China
| | - Huan Xu
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Ping Wang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Jiao Jiang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Wei Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Xiaomin Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Lei Shi
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Xiaolin Zhong
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
| | - Muhan Lü
- Department of Gastroenterology, The Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University, Luzhou, China
- Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Luzhou, China
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Xie C, Huang X, Lin D, Huang X, Lin S, Luo S, Xu X, Weng X. Long-term trend of future Cancer onset: A model-based prediction of Cancer incidence and onset age by region and gender. Prev Med 2023; 177:107775. [PMID: 37951546 DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107775] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/05/2023] [Revised: 10/26/2023] [Accepted: 11/08/2023] [Indexed: 11/14/2023]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES This study provided estimates of cancer incidence rate and onset age by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and gender from 2020 to 2040, aiming to clarify the long-term patterns of future cancer onset. METHOD Based on the incidence data from the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD) 2019 study, we constructed the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) of cancers from 2020 to 2040. Using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) to quantify the trends of ASIR and the onset age. In addition, the incidences in 2019 were fixed to distinguish the age onset changes caused by demographic and incidence from 2020 to 2040. RESULTS Globally, two-thirds of cancers have escalating trends of incidence rate, and the proportion of cancer weighted average onset age above 60 years old will grow from 62% to 76% between 2020 and 2040. In five SDI regions, the proportion of weighted average onset age above 60 years old will rise above 10% in the next 20 years and increase sequentially with the rise of the SDI level. Preclude sex-specific cancers, the onset age is younger in men than in women in 2040. Rule out the influence of changing demographics, half of cancer's morbidity has a youth-oriented tendency globally, which is concentrated in hormone-related and digestive tract cancer. CONCLUSION From 2020 to 2040, the incidence and onset age changes demonstrate marked geographic and gender variations in the cancer spectrum. Cancer incidence and onset age are predicted to continuously increase worldwide in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chen Xie
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Xiaoting Huang
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Dong Lin
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Xiaojia Huang
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Shen Lin
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Shaohong Luo
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China
| | - Xiongwei Xu
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China..
| | - Xiuhua Weng
- Department of Pharmacy, the First Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350005, China.; Department of Pharmacy, National Regional Medical Center, Binhai Campus of the First Affiliated Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350212, China..
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Ren K, Liu C, He Z, Wu P, Zhang J, Yang R, Cui T, Song K, Cheng D, He K, Yu J. Pancreatic Cancer and its Attributable Risk Factors in East Asia, Now and Future. Oncologist 2023; 28:e995-e1004. [PMID: 37265056 PMCID: PMC10628587 DOI: 10.1093/oncolo/oyad147] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/18/2022] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in East Asia is at a high level, but the epidemiological characteristics of pancreatic cancer in the region have not been systematically studied. METHOD Joinpoint analysis was used to identify average annual percentage change (AAPC) and annual percentage change (APC) in mortality. Age-period-cohort models were used to analyze age-period cohort effects across countries. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to project the burden of disease for 2020-2030. RESULTS Pancreatic cancer mortality in males in Japan (2012-2019, APC = -0.97) and Korea (2012-2019, APC = -0.91) has shown a decreasing trend since 2012 (P < .05). However, China (2016-2019, APC = 3.21), Mongolia (2015-2.019, APC = 2.37), and North Korea (2012-2019, APC = 0.47) showed a significant increase in pancreatic cancer in both genders (P < .05). Risk factors for pancreatic cancer in East Asia remained largely stable between 2010 and 2019. Mortality of pancreatic cancer due to smoking began to decline in areas with high socio-demographic index (SDI), and mortality of pancreatic cancer due to high body mass index and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. The age-standardized mortality for pancreatic cancer in Chinese males is expected to exceed that of Japan and South Korea by 2030, but the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Japan and South Korea remains at extremely high levels. CONCLUSION Economically developed countries are beginning to show a decreasing trend in the burden of pancreatic cancer disease, and developing countries are experiencing a rapid increase in the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of pancreatic cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kuiwu Ren
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chunlong Liu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Ziqiang He
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Bengbu Medical College, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Panpan Wu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jian Zhang
- Department of Neurosurgery, Seventh Clinical College of China Medical University, People’s Republic of China
| | - Rui Yang
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Tao Cui
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Kun Song
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Di Cheng
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
| | - Kui He
- Department of Preventive Medicine, Medical School, Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Jiangtao Yu
- Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, Fuyang People’s Hospital, Anhui Medical University, Fuyang, People’s Republic of China
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Zhao Y, Zhuang Z, Yang L, He D. Age-period-cohort analysis and projection of cancer mortality in Hong Kong, 1998-2030. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e072751. [PMID: 37821140 PMCID: PMC10583025 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072751] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/13/2023] [Accepted: 09/06/2023] [Indexed: 10/13/2023] Open
Abstract
OBJECTIVES To explore the relationship between immigration groups and cancer mortality, this study aimed to explore age, period, birth cohort effects and effects across genders and immigration groups on mortality rates of lung, pancreatic, colon, liver, prostate and stomach cancers and their projections. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Death registry data in Hong Kong between 1998 and 2021, which were stratified by age, sex and immigration status. Immigration status was classified into three groups: locals born in Hong Kong, long-stay immigrants and short-stay immigrants. METHODS Age-period-cohort (APC) analysis was used to examine age, period, and birth cohort effects for genders and immigration groups from 1998 to 2021. Bayesian APC models were applied to predict the mortality rates from 2022 to 2030. RESULTS Short-stay immigrants revealed pronounced fluctuations of mortality rates by age and of relative risks by cohort and period effects for six types of cancers than those of long-stay immigrants and locals. Immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals. After 2021, decreasing trends (p<0.05) or plateau (p>0.05) of forecasting mortality rates of cancers occur for all immigration groups, except for increasing trends for short-stay male immigrants with colon cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.30 deaths/100 000 per annum from 15.47 to 18.50 deaths/100 000) and long-stay male immigrants with pancreatic cancer (p<0.05, Avg+0.72 deaths/100 000 per annum from 16.30 to 23.49 deaths/100 000). CONCLUSIONS Findings underscore the effect of gender and immigration status in Hong Kong on mortality risks of cancers that immigrants for each type of cancer and gender will be at a higher mortality risk than locals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yanji Zhao
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Zian Zhuang
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Department of Biostatistics, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA
| | - Lin Yang
- School of Nursing, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Daihai He
- Department of Applied Mathematics, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
- Research Institute for Future Food, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
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Ma T, Wei X, Wu X, Du J. Trends and future projections of liver cancer incidence in Hong Kong: a population-based study. Arch Public Health 2023; 81:179. [PMID: 37789405 PMCID: PMC10548600 DOI: 10.1186/s13690-023-01191-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/31/2023] [Accepted: 09/19/2023] [Indexed: 10/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Liver cancer remains a significant burden in Hong Kong. We sought to examine trends in liver cancer incidence using 30 years of cancer registry data in Hong Kong. Additionally, we aimed to assess the impact of age, period and birth cohort on liver cancer incidence, provided projections for liver cancer incidence until 2030, and examined the drivers of liver cancer incidence. METHODS Data on liver cancer incidence were collected from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry (HKCaR). We assessed age, period, and birth cohort effects using age-period-cohort (APC) models. We employed Bayesian APC analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project the future burden of liver cancer in Hong Kong. Furthermore, we attributed the changes in new liver cancer cases to population growth, population ageing, and epidemiological changes. RESULTS The study included a total of 51,333 individuals, of whom 39,287 (76.53%) were male. From 1991 to 2020, the age-standardized liver cancer incidence rate in Hong Kong continued declining, while the number of new cases increased significantly, especially among males. The net drift, representing the overall annual percentage change of the age-adjusted rate, was - 3.06% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.31% to -2.80%) for males and - 3.85% (95% CI: -4.61% to -3.09%) for females. Local drift, which estimates the annual percentage change over time specific to age group, decreased in all age groups for both sexes, with a more pronounced decrease in younger age groups. The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer also showed decreasing trends for both sexes. The study projected a decline in liver cancer cases for males but an increase for females in Hong Kong, with an estimated 1,083 cases in males and 710 cases in females by 2030. Demographic decomposition analysis revealed that while population growth and ageing were the main drivers of increased liver cancer cases, epidemiologic shifts mostly offset these factors. CONCLUSION The period and cohort risk of developing liver cancer in Hong Kong declined due to epidemiological changes. Although the age-standardized incidence rates of liver cancer have also declined, demographic and epidemiological factors have led to lower case expectations in males but a likely increase in females. Further research and epidemiological assessment of the disease are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tianyou Ma
- School of Public Health, Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaohui Wei
- Third Department of Medical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, 710049, Shaanxi, China.
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Niu D, Zhao Y, Wang J, Ye E, Huang J, Liu J, Huang X, Yue S, Hou X, Wu J. Secular trend in disease burden of leukemia and its subtypes in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projection in 25 years. Ann Hematol 2023; 102:2375-2386. [PMID: 37468671 DOI: 10.1007/s00277-023-05372-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/08/2023] [Accepted: 07/13/2023] [Indexed: 07/21/2023]
Abstract
Leukemia and its subtypes impose a major public health challenge in China. Identifying the secular trend of leukemia burden is critical to facilitate optimal healthcare planning and improve the management of leukemia. The incidence rates of leukemia from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 database according to the following: subtype (acute lymphocytic leukemia [ALL], acute myeloid leukemia [AML], chronic lymphocytic leukemia [CLL], chronic myelogenous leukemia [CML], and other leukemia subtypes), sex, and age group. The average annual percentage changes and relative risks were calculated using joinpoint regression and the age-period-cohort model, respectively. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was also applied to predict the future trend of the incidence of leukemia and its subtypes in the next 25 years. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of leukemia slightly declined in males and females, which is similar to the trend of other leukemia subtypes. However, the four major leukemia subtypes, namely, ALL, AML, CLL, and CML, have been on the rise over the past three decades. The incidence rates of leukemia in children and the elderly were considerably higher than those in other age groups in males and females. Age effects were the most influential risk factor for leukemia incidence. Period effects showed that the risks of leukemia and its subtypes incidence increased with time. For cohort effects, the risks of leukemia and its subtypes were higher among the early-born cohorts compared with the late-born cohorts. The ASIRs of leukemia and its subtypes will continue to increase in the next 25 years. The burden of leukemia and its subtypes is expected to continue to increase in the next 25 years in males and females. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of leukemia and its subtypes is needed to formulate timely and effective intervention measures to reduce the leukemia burden in China.
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Affiliation(s)
- Dongdong Niu
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Western Guangdong Medical Union, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Yumei Zhao
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Western Guangdong Medical Union, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Jia Wang
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Enlin Ye
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Jiasheng Huang
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Jie Liu
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Xueying Huang
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Suru Yue
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China
| | - Xuefei Hou
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China.
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Western Guangdong Medical Union, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China.
| | - Jiayuan Wu
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China.
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Western Guangdong Medical Union, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, 524001, Guangdong, China.
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Wang X, Sun H, Li L, Gan Z, Wu X, Du J. Changing patterns of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence in Hong Kong: a 30-year analysis and future projections. BMC Cancer 2023; 23:761. [PMID: 37587425 PMCID: PMC10429092 DOI: 10.1186/s12885-023-11296-1] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2023] [Accepted: 08/13/2023] [Indexed: 08/18/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND This study aims to evaluate the relationship between age, period, and birth cohort with the incidence trends of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) in Hong Kong, make projections through 2030 and parse the drivers of the incidence. METHODS Using data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry, we used an age-period-cohort model to uniquely estimate age, period, and cohort effects on NPC incidence trends and make projections. We further assessed the drivers of NPC incidence using a validated decomposition algorithm. RESULTS From 1991 to 2020, crude and age-standardized incidence rates of NPC decreased significantly. The net drifts showed significant downward trends for both sexes, and local drift declined in all age groups. Period and cohort rate ratios revealed monotonic declining patterns for both sexes. Projections suggested that NPC incidence will continue to decline. Population decomposition showed that while population growth and ageing have led to an increase in NPC cases, epidemiologic changes offset these increases, resulting in an encouraging downward trend in the incidence and new NPC cases in Hong Kong. CONCLUSIONS The period and cohort risk of NPC in Hong Kong decreased, and epidemiologic changes offset the contribution of demographic factors, resulting in a continued decline in NPC incidence and cases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoyan Wang
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
| | - Haifeng Sun
- Third Department of Medical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Linchang Li
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Second Clinical School of Medicine, Shaanxi, University of Chinese Medicine, Xianyang, Shaanxi, China
| | - Zhenhai Gan
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, No.28, Xianning West Road, Xi'an, Shaanxi, 710049, China.
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Qiu HL, Fan S, Zhou K, He Z, Browning MH, Knibbs LD, Zhao T, Luo YN, Liu XX, Hu LX, Li JX, Zhang YD, Xie YT, Heinrich J, Dong GH, Yang BY. Global burden and drivers of hyperglycemia: Estimates and predictions from 1990 to 2050. Innovation (N Y) 2023; 4:100450. [PMID: 37485083 PMCID: PMC10362522 DOI: 10.1016/j.xinn.2023.100450] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Accepted: 05/23/2023] [Indexed: 07/25/2023] Open
Abstract
Hyperglycemia is a key risk factor for death and disability worldwide. To better inform prevention strategies, we aimed to delineate and predict the temporal, spatial, and demographic patterns in mean fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels and their related disease burden globally. Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, we estimated the distributions of mean FPG levels and high FPG-related disease burden by age, sex, year, socioeconomic status (SES), and geographical region from 1990 to 2050. We also investigated the possible associations of demographic, behavioral, dietary, metabolic, and environmental factors with FPG levels and high FPG-related disease burden. In 2019, the global mean FPG level was 5.40 mmol/L (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 4.86-6.00), and high FPG contributed to 83.0 deaths (95% UI, 64.5-107.1) and 2,104.3 DALYs (95% UI: 1,740.7-2,520.7) per 100,000 people. For both historical (1990-2019) and future (2020-2050) periods, the mean FPG levels and the high FPG-related disease burden increased globally, with greater increases among the middle-aged and elderly, and people in low-to-middle SES countries, relative to their counterparts. Aging, unhealthy lifestyles, elevated body mass index, and lower air temperatures were potential risk factors for high FPG levels and the high FPG-related disease burden. This study demonstrates that high FPG continues to contribute to the global disease burden and is expected to do so for at least the next 30 years. Older people and those living in low-to-middle SES countries should receive more attention in glycemic management health interventions. In addition, effective interventions that target identified risk factors should be adopted to handle the increasingly large disease burden of high FPG.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hui-Ling Qiu
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Shujun Fan
- Guangzhou Joint Research Center for Disease Surveillance and Risk Assessment, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
- Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University & Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511436, China
| | - Kaixin Zhou
- College of Life Sciences, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China
| | - Zhini He
- Food Safety and Health Research Center, Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Research, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
| | - Matthew H.E.M. Browning
- Department of Parks, Recreation and Tourism Management, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA
| | - Luke D. Knibbs
- School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW 2006, Australia
| | - Tianyu Zhao
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany
| | - Ya-Na Luo
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Xiao-Xuan Liu
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Li-Xin Hu
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Jia-Xin Li
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Yi-Dan Zhang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Yu-Ting Xie
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Joachim Heinrich
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München-German Research Centre for Environmental Health, 85764 Neuherberg, Germany
- Institute and Clinic for Occupational, Social and Environmental Medicine, University Hospital, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Allergy and Lung Health Unit, Centre for Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC 3010, Australia
| | - Guang-Hui Dong
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
| | - Bo-Yi Yang
- Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
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Lai X, Li C, Yang Y, Niu M, Yang Y, Gu S, Hou W, Chen L, Zhu Y. Global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden in tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2045 based on the global burden of disease study 2019. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1152209. [PMID: 37456232 PMCID: PMC10344363 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1152209] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/06/2023] [Indexed: 07/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The global cancer burden is substantial and spiraling. Although rehabilitation specialists could offer assistance, oncologic rehabilitation is still underutilized and not a routine part of clinical oncology guidelines worldwide. Global investigations of disease prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer are valuable for facilitating clinical practice improvement and health resource management. The objective of this study is to report the global estimates of rehabilitation needs and disease burden of TBL cancers from 1990 to 2019 and provide predictions for 2045. Methods To estimate the need for rehabilitation, the data used from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 to calculate the prevalence, YLDs, and the attributable risk factors of TBL cancer. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model were established to forecast the future health burden. All analyses were done at the global level and then some in the aggregation with the seven World Bank regions. All the data were analyzed by R software (x64 version 4.2.1) and Microsoft Excel (version 2019). Results Globally in 2019, 3,212,307 cases of TBL cancer (95% UI 2,937,037-3,488,346) could have benefitted from rehabilitation, contributing to 544,215 (95% UI 396,134-700,099) YLDs. Over the past 30 years, the age-standardized rate (ASR) of prevalence (EAPC = 0.51) and YLDs (EAPC = 0.03) increased. Throughout this period, the global prevalence and YLDs counts were greater in males than females. The ASR of prevalence and YLDs are projected to show a slight downward trend by 2045 on the global scale, the overall prevalence and YLDs due to TBL cancer are likely to increase further, but all indicators show a growing trend in females. Conclusion TBL cancer remains one of the major public health issues globally. According to the forecasted results, the burden of YLDs due to TBL cancer will continue to rise, and the increment is higher in females than males. A rising number of patients worldwide will benefit from rehabilitation services in the future to achieve precise control and management throughout the TBL cancer patient lifecycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xigui Lai
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- School of Exercise and Health, Shanghai University of Sport, Shanghai, China
| | - Conghui Li
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
| | - Yao Yang
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
| | - Mingyuan Niu
- Department of Computer Science, University of Waikato, Hamilton, New Zealand
| | - Yujie Yang
- School of Rehabilitation Sciences and Engineering, University of Health and Rehabilitation Sciences, Qingdao, Shandong, China
| | - Shanshan Gu
- Department of Physical Therapy, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada
| | - Weiqian Hou
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
- Academy of Medical Sciences, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
| | - Lili Chen
- Department of Rehabilitation Medicine, Hainan Cancer Hospital, Haikou, Hainan, China
| | - Yi Zhu
- Department of Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, China
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Yang F, Sun D, Xia C, Li H, Cao M, Yan X, He S, Zhang S, Chen W. Global trajectories of liver cancer burden from 1990 to 2019 and projection to 2035. Chin Med J (Engl) 2023; 136:1413-1421. [PMID: 37114647 PMCID: PMC10278715 DOI: 10.1097/cm9.0000000000002703] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Indexed: 04/29/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Large disparities exist in liver cancer burden trends across countries but are poorly understood. We aimed to investigate the global trajectories of liver cancer burden, explore the driving forces, and predict future trends. METHODS Data on the liver cancer burden in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trajectories were defined using growth mixture models. Five major risk factors contributing to changes in the ASIR or ASMR and socioeconomic determinants were explored using the identified trajectories. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict future trends through 2035. RESULTS Three trajectories of liver cancer burden were identified: increasing, stable, and decreasing groups. Almost half of the American countries were classified in the decreasing group (48.6% for ASIR and ASMR), and the increasing group was the most common in the European region (ASIR, 49.1%; ASMR, 37.7%). In the decreasing group, the decrease of liver cancer due to hepatitis B contributed 63.4% and 60.4% of the total decreases in ASIR and ASMR, respectively. The increase of liver cancer due to alcohol use, hepatitis C, and hepatitis B contributed the most to the increase in the increasing group (30.8%, 31.1%, and 24.2% for ASIR; 33.7%, 30.2%, and 22.2% for ASMR, respectively). The increasing group was associated with a higher sociodemographic index, gross domestic product per capita, health expenditure per capita, and universal health coverage (all P <0.05). Significant variations in disease burden are predicted to continue through 2035, with a disproportionate burden in the decreasing group. CONCLUSION Global disparities were observed in liver cancer burden trajectories. Hepatitis B, alcohol use, and hepatitis C were identified as driving forces in different regions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Wanqing Chen
- Office of Cancer Screening, National Cancer Center, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100021, China
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Zhu W, Liu S, Shi Y, Tang Q, Sun J, Bai R, Sun Z, Du Z. The epidemic of acute lymphoid leukemia in China: current trends and future prediction. Front Oncol 2023; 13:1195065. [PMID: 37397360 PMCID: PMC10313194 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1195065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background China has experienced one of the fastest increases in the incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL). The aim of this study was to assess the long-term trends of the incidence and mortality of ALL in mainland China between 1990 and 2019 and to project these trends through 2028. Methods Data on ALL were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019; population data were extracted from World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in the analysis. Results The net drift for the incidence of ALL was 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.1%, 7.8%) per year in women and 7.1% (95% CI: 6.7%, 7.6%) in men, and local drift was found to be higher than 0 in every studied age group (p<0.05). The net drift for mortality was 1.2% (95% CI: 1.0%, 1.5%) in women and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.7%, 2.3%) in men. Local drift was lower than 0 in boys aged 0-4 years and girls aged 0-9 years and higher than 0 in men aged 10-84 years and women aged 15-84 years. The estimated period relative risks (RRs) for both incidence and mortality showed increasing trends in the recent period. The cohort RRs for incidence showed increasing trends in both sexes; however, the cohort RR for mortality was decreased in the recent birth cohort (women born after 1988-1992 and men born after 2003-2007). Compared with that in 2019, the incidence of ALL in 2028 is projected to increase by 64.1% in men and 75.0% in women, and the mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.1% in men and 14.3% in women. The proportion of older adult/adults individuals with incident ALL and ALL-related death was projected to increase. Conclusions Over the last three decades, the incidence and mortality rates of ALL have generally increased. It is projected that the incidence rate of ALL in mainland China will continue to increase in the future, but the associated mortality rate will decline. The proportion of older adult/adults individuals with incident ALL and ALL-related death was projected to increase gradually among both sexes. More efforts are needed, especially for older adult/adults individuals.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenxuan Zhu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Shixuan Liu
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ying Shi
- Department of Chronic Disease, Xi'an Weiyang District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Qingyu Tang
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Jianzhong Sun
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Ruhai Bai
- School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China
| | - Zhonghe Sun
- Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhaoqing Du
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People’s Hospital, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China
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22
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Yang L, Sun H, Bai Y, Sun S, Wu X, Gan Z, Du J, Du J. Trends and Projections of Stomach Cancer Incidence in Hong Kong: A Population-Based Study. Cancer Invest 2023; 41:319-329. [PMID: 36416488 DOI: 10.1080/07357907.2022.2126982] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2021] [Revised: 06/01/2022] [Accepted: 09/17/2022] [Indexed: 11/24/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The burden of stomach cancer remains high in Hong Kong. We sought to evaluate the associations of age, period, and birth cohort with the changing trend in the incidence of stomach cancer and to provide projections through 2030. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed an age-period-cohort analysis and projections up to 2030 using data from the Hong Kong Cancer Registry. Additionally, we used a population decomposition algorithm to assess the drivers in the number of incident cases of stomach cancer in Hong Kong. RESULTS Among the 26,813 stomach cancer patients, from 1994 to 2018, the age-standardized incidence rate of stomach cancer decreased for both sexes. The incidence increased with age and was highest for those aged 85 years or older. Period relative risk (RR) showed a monotonic decreasing pattern throughout the study period for both sexes before 2010. Cohort RR for males was monotonically decreasing but changed little after the 1967-1971 birth cohort. In contrast, cohort RR for females declined in the pre-1927-1931 birth cohort but slowed down since. It is projected that there will be 906 male patients and 954 female patients in 2030. Decomposition analysis suggested that population growth and aging were associated with substantial changes in the number of incident cases of stomach cancer in Hong Kong. CONCLUSIONS Both period and cohort risk of developing stomach cancer in Hong Kong have slowed down or plateaued. Our study demonstrates that population aging and growth are the main drivers of the increased number of incident cases of stomach cancer in Hong Kong.
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Affiliation(s)
- Liping Yang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Xi'an People's Hospital, Guangren Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Haifeng Sun
- Third Department of Medical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Yan Bai
- School of Continuing Education, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China
| | - Shengzhi Sun
- School of public health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China
| | - Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Zhenhai Gan
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Jianfei Du
- Department of Oncology, Xi'an Gaoxin Hospital, Xi'an, China
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23
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Wang Y, Wang Z, Zhang Z, Wang H, Peng J, Hong L. Burden of ovarian cancer in China from 1990 to 2030: A systematic analysis and comparison with the global level. Front Public Health 2023; 11:1136596. [PMID: 36860393 PMCID: PMC9969192 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1136596] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2023] [Accepted: 01/26/2023] [Indexed: 02/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Introduction Ovarian cancer (OC) is one of the major diseases threatening women's health and life. Estimating the burden trends and risk factors of OC can help develop effective management and prevention measures. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis concerning the burden and risk factors of OC in China. In this study, we aimed to assess and predict the burden trends of OC in China from 1990 to 2030, and make a comparison with the global level. Methods We extracted prevalence, incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) and characterized OC burden in China by year and age. OC epidemiological characteristics were interpreted by conducting joinpoint and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. We also described risk factors, and predicted OC burden from 2019 to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results In China, there were about 196,000 cases, 45,000 new cases and 29,000 deaths owing to OC in 2019. The age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, incidence and mortality have increased by 105.98%, 79.19%, and 58.93% respectively by 1990. In the next decade, OC burden in China will continue to rise with a higher rate than the global level. The OC burden in women under 20 years of age is slowing down, while the burden in women over 40 years of age is getting more severe, especially in postmenopausal and older women. High fasting plasma glucose is the major factor contributing the most to OC burden in China, and high body-mass index has surpassed occupational exposure to asbestos to be the second risk factor. OC burden from 2016 to 2019 in China has increased faster than ever before, indicates an urgent need to develop effective interventions. Conclusion The burden of OC in China has shown an obvious upward trend in the past 30 years, and the increase rate accelerated significantly in recent 5 years. In the next decade, OC burden in China will continue to rise with a higher rate than the global level. Popularizing screening methods, optimizing the quality of clinical diagnosis and treatment, and promoting healthy lifestyle are critical measures to improve this problem.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ying Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Zhi Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Zihui Zhang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Haoyu Wang
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
| | - Jiaxin Peng
- Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
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Liu Y, Zhang C, Wang Q, Wu K, Sun Z, Tang Z, Zhang B. Temporal Trends in the Disease Burden of Colorectal Cancer with Its Risk Factors at the Global and National Level from 1990 to 2019, and Projections Until 2044. Clin Epidemiol 2023; 15:55-71. [PMID: 36659904 PMCID: PMC9842526 DOI: 10.2147/clep.s388323] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 13.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 01/05/2023] [Indexed: 01/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Background This study aimed to evaluate the global colorectal cancer(CRC) trend and the relevant risk factors from 1990 to 2019 and for better policymaking and resource allocation. Methods Data on CRC, including incidence, mortality and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates, were extracted from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to assess the temporal trend of incidence, mortality and DALYs. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model(BAPC) was used to predict the future burden of CRC. Results In 2019, a total of 2.17 million CRC cases were reported worldwide, a 157% increase from 1990. In high-social demographic index (SDI) regions, the trend of age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR) tended to decrease, while the proportion of people under 50 years of age tended to increase. Although the number of deaths and DALYs increased, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) and age-standardized DALY rate decreased. The CRC burden was growing fastest in middle-SDI regions, especially in East Asia, followed by low SDI regions. In addition, the milk intake, High-BMI and high fasting plasma glucose play a more important role in on CRC. The predicted cases and deaths in global continued to increase to 2044. And there is an upward trend in ASIR for both men and women. Conclusion In developed regions, the CRC burden continues to decrease, while the CRC burden become more and more severe in developing regions. Overall, the burden of CRC will rising in the near future. Therefore, reasonable resource allocation and prevention policies should be implemented. Developing countries needs more attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Liu
- The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Yiwu, Zhejiang, 322000, People’s Republic of China
| | - Chao Zhang
- Center for Evidence-Based Medicine and Clinical Research, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan, Hubei, 442000, People’s Republic of China
| | - Qianwen Wang
- The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Yiwu, Zhejiang, 322000, People’s Republic of China
| | - Kangze Wu
- The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310000, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhouyi Sun
- The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Yiwu, Zhejiang, 322000, People’s Republic of China
| | - Zhe Tang
- The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Yiwu, Zhejiang, 322000, People’s Republic of China
| | - Bo Zhang
- The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310000, People’s Republic of China,Correspondence: Bo Zhang, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 88 Jiefang Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310000, People’s Republic of China, Tel/Fax +86-0571-87783563, Email
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Ba H, Zhang D, Guan S, Zheng J. Global burden of myocarditis and cardiomyopathy in children and prediction for 2035 based on the global burden of disease study 2019. Front Cardiovasc Med 2023; 10:1173015. [PMID: 37200977 PMCID: PMC10185772 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2023.1173015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/24/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/20/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Myocarditis and cardiomyopathy are commonly occurring cardiovascular diseases that seriously threaten children's health. It was urgent to update the global incidence and mortality of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy, and to predict the incidence rate of 2035 by the Global Burden of Disease database. Methods The Global Burden of Disease study data from 1990 to 2019 in 204 countries and territories were used to determine: global incidence and mortality rates of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy from 0 to 19 by five age groups; relationship between sociodemographic index (SDI) and incidence and mortality rates by age group; and, based on an age-period-cohort model, the projected incidence of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy for 2035. Results From 1990 to 2019, global age-standardized incidence rate decreased by 0.1% (95% UI 0.0-0.1) to 7.7% (95% UI 5.1-11.1). Boys had higher age-standardized incidence of childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy than girls [9.12, (95% UI 6.05-13.07) vs. 6.18, (95% UI 4.06-8.92)]. Childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy affected 121,259 (95% UI 80,467-173,790) boys and 77,216 (95% UI 50,684-111,535) girls in 2019. At the regional level, SDI changes in most areas showed no meaningful difference. In East Asia and high-income Asia Pacific, increased SDI was associated with decreased and increased incidence rate, respectively. In 2019, 11,755 (95% UI 9,611-14,509) children died from myocarditis and cardiomyopathy worldwide. Age-standardized mortality rate decreased significantly by 0.4% (95% UI 0.2-0.6)-0.5% (95% UI 0.4-0.6). Number of deaths from childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy in 2019 was highest in the <5-year-old group [7,442 (95% UI 5,834-9,699)]. Myocarditis and cardiomyopathy incidence in 10-14- and 15-19-year-olds is projected to increase by 2035. Conclusion Global data on childhood myocarditis and cardiomyopathy from 1990 to 2019 showed a decreasing trend in incidence and mortality, and an increasing trend in older children, especially in high SDI regions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hongjun Ba
- Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Heart Centre, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China
- Key Laboratory on Assisted Circulation, Ministry of Health, Guangzhou, China
| | - Daoqi Zhang
- Department of Internal Medicine Teaching and Research Section, Xuancheng Vocational and Technical College, Xuanchen, China
| | - Shiyang Guan
- Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China
| | - Jinxin Zheng
- Department of Nephrology, Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China
- Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Chinese Center for Tropical Diseases Research), NHC Key Laboratory of Parasite and Vector Biology, WHO Collaborating Centre for Tropical Diseases, National Center for International Research on Tropical Diseases, National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Shanghai, China
- Correspondence: Jinxin Zheng
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Ma T, Wan M, Liu G, Zuo X, Yang X, Yang X. Temporal Trends of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Burden in China from 1990 to 2030 with Comparisons to Japan, South Korea, the European Union, the United States of America, and the World. Clin Epidemiol 2023; 15:583-599. [PMID: 37187768 PMCID: PMC10178411 DOI: 10.2147/clep.s402718] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2023] [Accepted: 04/22/2023] [Indexed: 05/17/2023] Open
Abstract
Purpose To identify and predict the epidemiological burden and trends of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in China and compare them globally. Methods We collected incidence, prevalence, deaths, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and the age-standardized rates (ASRs) of IBD from 1990 to 2019 in China, four developed countries and the world, from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to evaluate the temporal trends. Results From 1990 to 2019, the numbers of incident and prevalent cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of IBD increased in China, regardless of gender and age; decreased YLLs and increased YLDs caused a stable number of DALYs; the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) decreased. In 2019, the ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, and ASDR were 3.01/100,000 person-years (/100,000) (95% UI: 2.59, 3.50), 47.06/100,000 (95% UI: 40.05, 54.99), 0.30/100,000 (95% UI: 0.24, 0.35), and 13.1/100,000 (95% UI: 10.29, 16.31), respectively; almost all disease burden data were higher in males. In 2017, the ASDR in different socio-demographic index provinces ranged from 24.62/100,000 (95% UI: 16.95, 33.81) to 63.97/100,000 (95% UI: 44.61, 91.48). When compared globally, the ASIR and ASPR in China had opposite trends and the highest AAPCs. In 2019, the ASIR and ASPR in China were in the middle of the world and lower than in some developed countries. The numbers and ASRs of incidence, prevalence, and DALYs were expected to increase by 2030. Conclusion The IBD burden in China significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 and was expected to rise further by 2030. China had the world's opposite and most dramatic trends in ASIR and ASPR from 1990 to 2019. Strategies should be adjusted to adapt to the significantly increased disease burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tian Ma
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Meng Wan
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Guanqun Liu
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiuli Zuo
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
| | - Xiaorong Yang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Correspondence: Xiaorong Yang, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-531-82166951, Fax +86-531-86927544, Email
| | - Xiaoyun Yang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Shandong Provincial Clinical Research Center for Digestive Disease, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, People’s Republic of China
- Xiaoyun Yang, Department of Gastroenterology, Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, Shandong, 250012, People’s Republic of China, Tel +86-531-82169034, Fax +86-531-86927544, Email
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Ning FL, Zhang NN, Zhao ZM, Du WY, Zeng YJ, Abe M, Pei JP, Zhang CD. Global, Regional, and National Burdens with Temporal Trends of Early-, Intermediate-, and Later-Onset Gastric Cancer from 1990 to 2019 and Predictions up to 2035. Cancers (Basel) 2022; 14:cancers14215417. [PMID: 36358835 PMCID: PMC9656932 DOI: 10.3390/cancers14215417] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/11/2022] [Revised: 10/27/2022] [Accepted: 10/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/05/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary Early, intermediate, and late-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, IOGC, LOGC) incidence and death rates differed globally, regionally, and nationally in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, EOGC showed a slower decrease in incidence rate worldwide than IOGC and LOGC, whereas EOGC and LOGC showed slower decreases in mortality than IOGC. The worldwide incidence rate of EOGC was predicted to increase substantially from 2020 to 2035, while that for LOGC was predicted to increase slightly and that for IOGC was predicted to remain stable over the same period. This study revealed significant differences in the burdens and temporal trends of EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC, and highlighted the importance of tailored cancer-control measures in neglected subpopulations, especially in patients with EOGC. Abstract Background: Evidence for estimating and predicting the temporal trends of gastric cancer in different age groups is lacking. Methods: Data of early-, intermediate-, and later-onset gastric cancer (EOGC, IOGC, LOGC) was from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The incidences and deaths due to EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC were analyzed by period, sex, geographic location, and sociodemographic incidence. Temporal trends were evaluated by estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs). The incidences and temporal trends were predicted until 2035. Results: There were substantial differences in the incidence and death rates of the three populations at global, regional and national levels in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, EOGC (EAPC, −0.84) showed a slower decrease in incidence rate worldwide than IOGC (EAPC, −1.77) and LOGC (EAPC, −1.10), whereas EOGC and LOGC showed slower decreases in mortality than IOGC. The worldwide incidence rate of EOGC (EAPC, 1.44) was predicted to increase substantially from 2020 to 2035, while that for LOGC (EAPC, 0.43) was predicted to increase slightly and that for IOGC (EAPC, −0.01) was predicted to remain stable over the same period. Conclusions: This study revealed differences in the burdens and temporal trends of EOGC, IOGC, and LOGC, and highlighted the importance of tailored cancer-control measures in neglected subpopulations, especially in patients with EOGC.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fei-Long Ning
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, China Medical University, Shenyang 110032, China
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Nan-Nan Zhang
- National Clinical Research Center and State key Laboratory of Cancer Biology for Digestive Diseases, Xijing Hospital of Digestive Diseases, Fourth Military Medical University, Xi’an 710000, China
| | - Zhe-Ming Zhao
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, China Medical University, Shenyang 110032, China
| | - Wan-Ying Du
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Yong-Ji Zeng
- Section of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX 77030, USA
| | - Masanobu Abe
- Division for Health Service Promotion, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo 113-8655, Japan
| | - Jun-Peng Pei
- Key Laboratory of Carcinogenesis and Translational Research (Ministry of Education/Beijing), Peking University Cancer Hospital & Institute, Beijing 100142, China
| | - Chun-Dong Zhang
- Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, China Medical University, Shenyang 110032, China
- Correspondence: ; Tel.: +86-189-0091-2404
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Du Z, Zhu W, Zhao Y, Liu S, Chu H, Sun Z, Chu M. The epidemic of stroke mortality attributed to high body mass index in mainland China: Current trends and future prediction. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1021646. [PMID: 36353279 PMCID: PMC9639780 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1021646] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/17/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Background High body mass index (BMI) is an important risk factor for stroke. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term trend of high BMI-attributed stroke mortality and make projections through 2030. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in the analysis. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of high BMI-attributed stroke among females decreased by 15.2%, while among males, it increased by 31.1%. All of the age groups studied showed an increasing pattern over the last 30 years in males, and in female, the age groups encompassing participants who were 25-69 years old showed a decreasing pattern. In the same birth cohort, high BMI-attributable stroke mortality rates increased exponentially with age in both sexes. For females, the period rate ratios (RR) showed a downward trend after 2000-2004, and the cohort RR also showed a downward trend after the birth cohort 1930-1934. For males, the period RR showed an upward trend, but this increase was halted in the most recent period, and the cohort RRs showed a monotonic increasing pattern. It was projected that the ASMR of high BMI-attributed stroke would decrease among females and increase among males in the near future and that the proportion of elderly individuals with death due to high BMI-attributed stroke was projected to increase. Conclusions Over the last three decades, the high BMI-attributed stroke mortality rate decreased among females and increased among males, and these trends are projected to continue in the future. In addition, the proportion of elderly individuals with high BMI-attributed stroke mortality was projected to increase gradually in both men and women. More health-promoting efforts are needed, especially for elderly individuals and males.
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Affiliation(s)
- Zhaoqing Du
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, China
| | - Wenxuan Zhu
- Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Yuqi Zhao
- Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Shenghang Liu
- Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China
| | - Hao Chu
- School of Urban Planning and Municipal Engineering, Xi'an Polytechnic University, Xi'an, China
| | - Zhonghe Sun
- Nanjing First Hospital, Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing, China,*Correspondence: Zhonghe Sun
| | - Meng Chu
- Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, China,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, China,Meng Chu
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Huang J, Li H, Yan H, Li FX, Tang M, Lu DL. The comparative burden of brain and central nervous system cancers from 1990 to 2019 between China and the United States and predicting the future burden. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1018836. [PMID: 36339132 PMCID: PMC9635888 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1018836] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/14/2022] [Accepted: 10/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Brain and central nervous system (CNS) cancers represent a major source of cancer burden in China and the United States. Comparing the two countries' epidemiological features for brain and CNS cancers can help plan interventions and draw lessons. Methods Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease repository. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) and relative risks of cancer burdens were calculated using joinpoint regression analysis and age-period-cohort (APC) models, respectively. Moreover, a Bayesian APC model was employed to predict the disease burden over the next decade. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of incidences, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) increased in China and the US, with a larger increase in China. Age-standardized incidence rates in China and the United States have shown an increasing trend over the past three decades, with AAPCs of 0.84 and 0.16%, respectively. However, the rates of age-standardized mortality and age-standardized DALYs decreased in both countries, with a greater decrease in China. Overall, age trends in cancer burden were similar for males and females, with two peaks in the childhood and elderly groups, respectively. The period and cohort effects on incidence showed an overall increasing trend in China and limited change in the US. However, the period effects for mortality and DALY were decreasing in both countries, while the cohort effects tended to increase and then decrease. Moreover, we predicted that the cancer burdens would continue to rise in China over the next decade. Conclusion The burden of brain and CNS cancers is substantial and will continue to increase in China. Comprehensive policy and control measures need to be implemented to reduce the burden.
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Wu J, Zhao X, Sun J, Cheng C, Yin C, Bai R. The epidemic of thyroid cancer in China: Current trends and future prediction. Front Oncol 2022; 12:932729. [PMID: 36119514 PMCID: PMC9478365 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.932729] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/30/2022] [Accepted: 08/01/2022] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Thyroid cancer (TC) is one of the most common cancers in China. The aim of this study was to identify the potential age, period, and cohort effect under the long-term trends in TC incidence and mortality, making projections up to 2030. Methods Incidence and mortality data on TC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The population predictions were obtained from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2019. An age–period–cohort model was used for the analysis. Results From 1990 to 2019, the net drift (the overall annual percentage change of TC over time adjusted for age groups) of the TC incidence was 5.01% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.72%, 5.29%) for men and 1.48% (95% CI: 1.14%, 1.82%) for women. The net drift of TC mortality was 1.64% (95% CI: 1.38%, 1.91%) for men and –2.51% (95% CI: –2.77%, –2.26%) for women. Regarding the incidence of TC, both the period and the cohort relative risks (RRs) in men and women showed an overall increasing trend. As to the mortality rate of TC, both the period and cohort RRs in women showed a monotonic declining trend. The period RRs for men decreased after 2015, but the cohort RRs revealed a fluctuating upward pattern. From 2019 to 2030, the TC incidence was projected to rise by 32.4% in men and 13.1% in women, the mortality declining by 13.0% in men and 17.3% in women. The elderly was projected to have an increasing proportion of TC occurrence and deaths. Conclusions Over the past 30 years, the incidence rate of TC in China has continually increased, and this trend was projected to continue. Although male mortality has increased in the past, it is expected to decline in the future. The proportion of older people among TC occurrence and death was projected to gradually increase, and the difficulties elderly with TC lrequire more attention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiayuan Wu
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Xiaoyan Zhao
- Medical Innovation Research Department, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital, Beijing, China
| | - Jianzhong Sun
- Health Science Center, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China
| | - Chong Cheng
- Hospital of Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
| | - Chunyu Yin
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
- Department of Outpatient, First Medical Center of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital, Beijing, China
- *Correspondence: Ruhai Bai, ; Chunyu Yin,
| | - Ruhai Bai
- School of Public Affairs, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, China
- *Correspondence: Ruhai Bai, ; Chunyu Yin,
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Burden of Lung Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens from 1990 to 2019 and Projections until 2044 in China. Cancers (Basel) 2022; 14:cancers14163883. [PMID: 36010878 PMCID: PMC9405822 DOI: 10.3390/cancers14163883] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/01/2022] [Revised: 07/28/2022] [Accepted: 08/09/2022] [Indexed: 11/29/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary The disease burden trend of lung cancer that is attributable to occupational carcinogens in China remains unclear. We used the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019 to investigate the related disease burden from 1990 to 2019 and to project the disease burden for the next 25 years. The results indicate that the disease burden of lung cancer that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years. Abstract Background: Little is known about trends in the lung cancer burden from the disease that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China. Methods: Data regarding the lung cancer burden that can be attributed to occupational carcinogens in China were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis were conducted to estimate the trend of lung cancer burden as a result of occupational carcinogens from 1990 to 2019. A Bayesian APC model was used to predict the disease burden until 2044. Results: The average annual percentage changes of age-standardized summary exposure values (SEVs) of occupational lung carcinogens, as well as the age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF) of lung cancer due to occupational carcinogens, were 0.5% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.4–0.5%) and 0.1% (95% CI: 0–0.2%), respectively. In addition, both the joinpoint regression analysis and APC analysis demonstrated significantly increased trends of age-standardized lung cancer mortality (ASMR) and age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR) as a result of occupational carcinogens. Asbestos and silica accounted for the two most important occupational lung carcinogens in China. The absolute burden is expected to increase, mainly due to population aging and the age-specific rate of illness. Conclusions: The lung cancer burden that could be attributed to occupational carcinogens significantly increased from 1990 to 2019 in China, and the absolute burden will continue to increase in the next 25 years.
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Fang Y, Li Z, Chen H, Zhang T, Yin X, Man J, Yang X, Lu M. Burden of lung cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 2022:10.1007/s00432-022-04217-5. [PMID: 35904601 DOI: 10.1007/s00432-022-04217-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2022] [Accepted: 07/15/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVE This study aimed to identify and project the epidemiological trends and the burden of lung cancer in China. METHODS We extracted incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of lung cancer in China, between 1990 and 2019, from the Global Burden of Disease Study (2019). The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was applied to quantify the trends of lung cancer burden. Furthermore, we used the Bayesian age-period-cohort model to project the incidence and mortality in the next decade. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the estimated national number of lung cancer incident cases increased by 224.0% to 832,920, deaths increased by 195.4% to 757,170 and DALYs increased by 146.1% to 17,128,580, respectively. Meanwhile, the ASIR, ASMR and ASDR showed an upward trend (EAPC of 1.33, 0.94 and 0.42, respectively). The ASIR and ASMR among males were about 2 times more than females, but the increase in ASIR in females (EAPC = 2.24) was more obvious than those in males (EAPC = 0.10) from 2020 to 2030. In China, smoking remained responsible for the highest burden of lung cancer, but the contribution of ambient particulate matter pollution to DALYs increased from 10.6% in 1990 to 22.5% in 2019 in total population. Moreover, we predicted that the number of deaths from lung cancer will increase by 42.7% in China by 2030. CONCLUSION In China, the burden of lung cancer has been increasing over the past three decades, which highlights more targeted intervention measures are needed to reduce the burden of lung cancer.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuan Fang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Zhen Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hui Chen
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China
- Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Tongchao Zhang
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China
- Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaolin Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Jinyu Man
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaorong Yang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China.
- Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
| | - Ming Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China.
- Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
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Zhao Y, Niu D, Ye E, Huang J, Wang J, Hou X, Wu J. Secular Trends in the Burden of Multiple Myeloma From 1990 to 2019 and Its Projection Until 2044 in China. Front Public Health 2022; 10:938770. [PMID: 35875035 PMCID: PMC9304978 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.938770] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2022] [Accepted: 06/17/2022] [Indexed: 12/20/2022] Open
Abstract
Objective Multiple myeloma (MM) imposes a heavy burden in China. Understanding the secular trend of MM burden and projecting its future trend could facilitate appropriate public health planning and improve the management of MM. Methods Sex-specific incidence and mortality rates of MM in China from 1990 to 2019 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. The secular trend of MM burden was analyzed by joinpoint regression. Age–period–cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on MM burden and project future trends up to 2044. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM continued to increase in males. For females, the age-standardized rates were stable in MM incidence and decreased in MM mortality. Males had a higher disease burden of MM than females. Age effects were the most significant risk factor for MM incidence and mortality. Moreover, the risk of MM incidence and mortality increased with increasing time period but decreased with birth cohort in males and females. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of MM in China is predicted to be continuously increasing over the next 25 years. Conclusion The burden of MM in China is expected to continue to increase in the future, with significant sex difference. A comprehensive understanding of the risk characteristics and disease pattern of MM could help develop timely intervention measures to effectively reduce its burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yumei Zhao
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation Technology of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong Province, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Dongdong Niu
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Enlin Ye
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Jiasheng Huang
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Jia Wang
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Xuefei Hou
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation Technology of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong Province, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
| | - Jiayuan Wu
- Clinical Research Service Center, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
- Guangdong Engineering Research Center of Collaborative Innovation Technology of Clinical Medical Big Data Cloud Service in Medical Consortium of West Guangdong Province, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang, China
- *Correspondence: Jiayuan Wu
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Li J, Chen C, Nie J, Wang L, Zhang Z, Li Y. Changes in the disease burden of breast cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and its projections: An analysis of the global burden of disease study 2019. Cancer Med 2022; 12:1888-1902. [PMID: 35785526 PMCID: PMC9883426 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.5006] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/15/2022] [Revised: 06/19/2022] [Accepted: 06/23/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND To investigate the secular trends in breast cancer burden with attributable risk factors, and make projections over time, which would contribute to the control and prevention of breast cancer. METHODS We extracted detailed data on breast cancer incident cases and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), deaths and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR), as well as the attributable risk factors in China from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to quantify the changing trends. The national DALYs attributable to Socio-demographic Index (SDI) values were also presented. Projections to 2030 were estimated using the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. RESULTS From 1990 to 2019, the number of breast cancer incident cases increased fourfold to 375,484, with deaths and DALYs over doubling to 96.306 and 2,957,454, respectively. The ASIR (EAPC = 2.84; 95% CI, 2.74-2.95) and ASMR (EAPC = 0.06; 95% CI, 0.00-0.12) increased, while the ASDR decreased with the EAPC of -0.13 (95% CI, -0.19 to -0.06) at the same period. The ASDR varied across provincial regions, which appeared to be in a wave-like upcurve with SDI values increasing. High body mass index became the first contribution to breast cancer DALYs for females in 2019, and alcohol use for males. Breast Cancer incident cases and deaths would increase to 587.7 and 125.6 thousand in 2030, of which there will be 577.1 and 122.7 thousand for females, and 10.6 and 2.9 thousand for males, respectively. CONCLUSION Breast cancer remains a major public health problem in China. The absolute burden has been increasing over time, and varied across sex and regions. To control the potential risk factors and develop specific strategies will help to reduce the disease burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jie Li
- Dongying People's HospitalDongyingPeople's Republic of China
| | - Cui Chen
- Dongying People's HospitalDongyingPeople's Republic of China
| | - Jinjin Nie
- Dongying People's HospitalDongyingPeople's Republic of China
| | - Lili Wang
- Dongying Center for Disease Control and PreventionDongyingPeople's Republic of China
| | - Zhen Zhang
- Dongying Center for Disease Control and PreventionDongyingPeople's Republic of China
| | - Yuli Li
- Dongying People's HospitalDongyingPeople's Republic of China
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Chen J, Chen H, Zhang T, Yin X, Man J, Yang X, Lu M. Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030. Pancreatology 2022; 22:608-618. [PMID: 35513974 DOI: 10.1016/j.pan.2022.04.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/19/2021] [Revised: 03/02/2022] [Accepted: 04/25/2022] [Indexed: 12/11/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES Understanding epidemiology trends and patterns of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicting the burden to 2030 will provide foundations for future policies development. METHODS We collected incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of pancreatic cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) to depict the trends of pancreatic cancer burden and predicted the incidence and mortality in the next decade by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. RESULTS The number of incident cases sharply increased from 26.77 thousand in 1990 to 114.96 thousand in 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) nearly doubled from 3.17 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.78 per 100,000 in 2019, with an EAPC of 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.12, 2.51). The mortality and DALYs presented a similar pattern with incidence. The dominant risk factor for pancreatic cancer was smoking, but the contribution of high body-mass index increased from 1990 to 2019. We projected that the incident cases and deaths of pancreatic cancer would increase to 218.79 thousand and 222.97 thousand, respectively, in 2030 with around 2 times growth. CONCLUSIONS During the past three decades, the incidence, mortality and DALYs of pancreatic cancer gradually increased in China, and the absolute number and rate of pancreatic cancer burden would continue to rise over the next decade. Comprehensive policies and strategies need to be implemented to reduce the incidence and mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jiaqi Chen
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hui Chen
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Tongchao Zhang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaolin Yin
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Jinyu Man
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiaorong Yang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
| | - Ming Lu
- Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China; Clinical Research Center of Shandong University, Qilu Hospital, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
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Ou Y, Long Y, Ji L, Zhan Y, Qiao T, Wang X, Chen H, Cheng Y. Trends in Disease Burden of Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia at the Global, Regional, and National Levels From 1990 to 2019, and Projections Until 2030: A Population-Based Epidemiologic Study. Front Oncol 2022; 12:840616. [PMID: 35359356 PMCID: PMC8961301 DOI: 10.3389/fonc.2022.840616] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2021] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 12/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Background The prognosis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) has been improved dramatically, but there are limited studies focusing on CLL disease burden on a global scale. We aimed to evaluate the accurate assessment of the disease burden of CLL that may provide more detailed epidemiological information for rational policies. Methods The main source of the data was the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019. Incident cases, death cases, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs) from 1990 to 2019 were used to describe the burden of CLL. Data about attributable risk factors were also extracted and analyzed. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to assess and project the incidence and mortality rates till 2030. Results Globally, the incidence of CLL had been increasing. Deaths and DALYs decreased slightly. The burden of death and DALY is affected by socio-demographic index (SDI). The incidence rate, death rate, and DALY rate of CLL increased significantly with age. Male-to-female ratios of incidence rates varied in different SDI quintiles. Smoking, high body mass index, and occupational exposure to benzene or formaldehyde were the potential risk factors related to CLL. Global ASIRs might tend to increase until 2030, while ASDR would decrease until 2030. Conclusion The disease burden of CLL decreased in higher SDI countries but increased in lower ones. Strategies for early detection of asymptomatic CLL, development of novel drugs, and measures against attributable factors should be implemented to combat CLL burden.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yang Ou
- Center for Tumor Diagnosis & Therapy, Jinshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yichen Long
- School of Life Science, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
| | - Lili Ji
- Department of Hematology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yanxia Zhan
- Department of Hematology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Tiankui Qiao
- Center for Tumor Diagnosis & Therapy, Jinshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Xiangdong Wang
- Center for Tumor Diagnosis & Therapy, Jinshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Institute of Clinical Science, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Hao Chen
- Department of Thoracic Surgery, Zhongshan Hospital Xuhui Branch, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Yunfeng Cheng
- Center for Tumor Diagnosis & Therapy, Jinshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Department of Hematology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Institute of Clinical Science, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, China.,Department of Hematology, Zhongshan Hospital Qingpu Branch, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
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Du J, Sun H, Sun Y, Du J, Cao W, Sun S. Assessment of age, period, and cohort effects of lung cancer incidence in Hong Kong and projection up to 2030 based on changing demographics. Am J Cancer Res 2021; 11:5902-5916. [PMID: 35018232 PMCID: PMC8727798] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/02/2021] [Accepted: 10/31/2021] [Indexed: 06/14/2023] Open
Abstract
The burden of lung cancer in Hong Kong continues to rise. We analyzed trends in lung cancer incidence and associations with age, period, and cohort from 1985 to 2019, made projections up to 2030 and examined the drivers of lung cancer incidence. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects on lung cancer incidence rates in Hong Kong between 1985 and 2019. We projected lung cancer incidence in Hong Kong from 2020 to 2030 using Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with an integrated nested Laplace approximation. We decomposed changes in the number of lung cancer cases into population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes. From 1985 to 2019, the number of lung cancer incident cases in Hong Kong continued to rise, yet the age-standardized incidence rates have declined for both sexes while have fluctuated for females over the past two decades. The overall annual percentage change from 1985 to 2019 was -2.29 (95% CI, -2.53 to -2.05) for males and -0.86 (95% CI, -1.06 to -0.65) for females. Age-specific annual percentages for both sexes showed a decreasing trend in all age groups and were more pronounced for females older than 65 years and males younger than 65 years. Period effects for both sexes showed a similar monotonic downward pattern, with the downward trend slowing for females after 2000. The cohort effect declined monotonically for males and started to plateau for females after the 1945 birth cohort. It was projected that the incident cases of lung cancer in Hong Kong would continue to increase, with 4,435 male cases and 3,561 female cases in 2030. Demographic decomposition suggested that population growth and population aging play an important role in the change of lung cancer cases. Much progress has been made in reducing the incidence of lung cancer in Hong Kong, but this has been offset by demographic changes that will continue to increase the incident cases of lung cancer in Hong Kong, especially among females. There is an urgent need for continued public health policies and clinical programs for risk factor control and necessary screening.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710049, Shaanxi, China
| | - Haifeng Sun
- Third Department of Medical Oncology, Shaanxi Provincial Cancer Hospital Affiliated to Medical College of Xi’an Jiaotong UniversityXi’an 710061, Shaanxi, China
| | - Yuying Sun
- School of Public Health, The University of Hong KongHong Kong, China
| | - Jianfei Du
- Department of Oncology, Xi’an Gaoxin HospitalXi’an 710100, Shaanxi, China
| | - Wangnan Cao
- Center for Evidence Synthesis in Health, Brown University School of Public HealthProvidence, RI 02912, USA
| | - Shengzhi Sun
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public HealthBoston, Massachusetts, MA 02118, USA
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Yang X, Zhang T, Zhang H, Sang S, Chen H, Zuo X. Temporal trend of gastric cancer burden along with its risk factors in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections until 2030: comparison with Japan, South Korea, and Mongolia. Biomark Res 2021; 9:84. [PMID: 34784961 PMCID: PMC8597246 DOI: 10.1186/s40364-021-00340-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 36] [Impact Index Per Article: 12.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/19/2021] [Accepted: 10/21/2021] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Identifying and projecting the epidemiological burden of gastric cancer (GC) can optimize the control strategies, especially in high-burden areas. Methods We collected incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of GC from 1990 to 2019 in China, Japan, South Korea, and Mongolia from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was calculated to quantify the temporal trends, and the projection was estimated by applying the Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results In China, the ASIR of GC declined slightly from 37.56/100000 in 1990 to 30.64/100000 in 2019 (AAPC of − 0.41), while the declines of ASMR and ASDR were pronounced (AAPC of − 1.68 and − 1.98, respectively), which were weaker than Japan and South Korea. Although the age-standardized rates of gastric cancer in most countries have declined overall in the past 30 years, the downward trend in the last 4 years has become flattened. Smoking remained one main contributor to DALYs of GC in China, Japan, South Korea, and Mongolia, with more than 24%. The contribution from high-sodium diet was similar between men and women, and kept relatively stable over the three decades. The predicted ASMRs among the four East Asian countries continued to decline until 2030, but the absolute deaths would still increase significantly, especially in South Korea and Mongolia. Conclusions Although the age-standardized rates of GC in most countries have declined, the absolute burden of GC in the world, especially in China and Mongolia, is on the rise gradually. Low socio-demographic index and aging along with Helicobacter pylori infection, smoking, and high-salt diet were the main risk factors of GC occurrence and should be paid more attention. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40364-021-00340-6.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaorong Yang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital, School of Medicine, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China. .,Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China. .,Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.
| | - Tongchao Zhang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hong Zhang
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital, School of Medicine, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China.,Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Shaowei Sang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Hui Chen
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Xiuli Zuo
- Department of Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital, School of Medicine, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, 107 Wenhuaxi Road, Jinan, 250012, Shandong, China. .,Laboratory of Translational Gastroenterology, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China.
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Wu X, Du J, Li L, Cao W, Sun S. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Prediction of Mortality of Type 2 Diabetic Kidney Disease in China: A Modeling Study. Front Endocrinol (Lausanne) 2021; 12:767263. [PMID: 34777260 PMCID: PMC8586507 DOI: 10.3389/fendo.2021.767263] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2021] [Accepted: 10/06/2021] [Indexed: 01/04/2023] Open
Abstract
Background The burden of type 2 diabetic kidney disease (DKD) continues to rise in China. We analyzed time trends in DKD mortality and associations with age, period, and birth cohort from 1990 to 2019, made projections up to 2030, and examined the drivers of deaths from DKD. Methods and Findings The number of DKD deaths in China from 1990 to 2019 was obtained from the GBD 2019. We used age-period-cohort modeling to estimate age, period, and cohort effects in DKD mortality between 1990 and 2019. We calculated net drift (overall annual percentage change), local drift (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rates), period, and cohort relative risks. We used Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis with integrated nested Laplace approximations to project future age-specific DKD death cases from 2020 to 2030. We used a validated decomposition algorithm to attribute changes in DKD deaths to population growth, population aging, and epidemiologic changes from 1990 to 2030. From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate of DKD in China was relatively stable, but the absolute number of DKD deaths showed a noticeable increasing trend. The overall annual percentage change (net drift) was -0.75% (95% confidence interval, CI: -0.93 to -0.57) for males and -1.90% (95% CI, -2.19 to -1.62) for females. The age-specific annual percentage changes (local drifts) were below zero in all age groups from 1990 to 2019 except for males aged above 65 to 69 years, and for females aged above 70 to 74 years. The risk of DKD deaths increased exponentially with age for both sexes after controlling for period deviations. The Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis projects that there would be 88,803 deaths from DKD in 2030, increased by 224.2% from 1990. Despite a decrease in age-specific DKD death rates, the reduction would be entirely offset by population aging. Conclusions Although China has made progress in reducing DKD deaths, demographic changes have entirely offset the progress. The burden of DKD deaths is likely to continue increasing. Our findings suggest that large-scale screening is imperative for DKD control and prevention, particularly for high-risk groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Xiaoming Wu
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China
| | - Jianqiang Du
- The Key Laboratory of Biomedical Information Engineering of Ministry of Education, School of Life Science and Technology, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, China
| | - Linchang Li
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Second Clinical School of Medicine, Shaanxi University of Chinese Medicine, Xianyang, China
| | - Wangnan Cao
- Center for Evidence Synthesis in Health, Brown University School of Public Health, Providence, RI, United States
| | - Shengzhi Sun
- Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States
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Yu J, Yang X, He W, Ye W. Burden of pancreatic cancer along with attributable risk factors in Europe between 1990 and 2019, and projections until 2039. Int J Cancer 2021; 149:993-1001. [PMID: 33937984 DOI: 10.1002/ijc.33617] [Citation(s) in RCA: 59] [Impact Index Per Article: 19.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/23/2021] [Revised: 04/08/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Abstract
Projecting the burden of pancreatic cancer over time provides essential information to effectively plan measures for its management and prevention. Here, we obtained data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study between 1990 and 2019, to model how pancreatic cancer will affect the 27 countries of the European Union (EU) plus the United Kingdom (the pre-Brexit EU-28) until 2039 by conducting the Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis. The number of new pancreatic cancer cases in the EU-28 was 59 000 in 1990, 109 000 in 2019 and projected to be 147 000 in 2039. This corresponded to 60 000, 109 000 and 155 000 for deaths, and a loss of 1.3 million, 2.0 million and 2.7 million for disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), respectively. The most pronounced increase of the crude incidence rate was observed and projected to be in the population older than 80 years. The age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence, however, increased from 8.6 to 10.1 per 100 000 person-years during 1990-2019 but was projected to remain stable during 2019-2039. At the same time, our models only predicted a mild increase in the ASR of mortality until 2039. The fraction of pancreatic cancer mortality attributable to tobacco consumption decreased during 1990-2019, but we found upward trends for the attributable fractions for high fasting plasma glucose and high body mass index. In conclusion, a substantial increase in counts of incidence, mortality and DALYs lost of pancreatic cancer in the EU-28 is projected over the next two decades, which indicates the need for future health policies and interventions.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingru Yu
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Xiaorong Yang
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Qilu Hospital of Shandong University, Jinan, China
| | - Wei He
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.,Chronic Disease Research Institute, the Children's Hospital, National Clinical Research Center for Child Health, School of Public Health, School of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China.,Department of Nutrition and Food Hygiene, School of Public Health, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
| | - Weimin Ye
- Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.,Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Gastrointestinal Cancer, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
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