Malaria in Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Venezuela: current challenges in malaria control and elimination

Natural genetic diversity of the DBL domain of a novel member of the Plasmodium vivax erythrocyte binding-like proteins (EBP2) in the Amazon rainforest

In malaria parasites, the erythrocyte binding-like proteins (EBL) are a family of invasion proteins that are attractive vaccine targets. In the case of Plasmodium vivax, the widespread malaria parasite, blood-stage vaccines have been largely focused on a single EBL candidate, the Duffy binding-like domain (DBL) of the Duffy binding protein (DBPII), due to its well-characterized role in the reticulocyte invasion. A novel P. vivax EBL family member, the Erythrocyte binding protein (EBP2, also named EBP or DBP2), binds preferentially to reticulocytes and may mediate an alternative P. vivax invasion pathway. To gain insight into the natural genetic diversity of the DBL domain of EBP2 (region II; EBP2-II), we analyzed ebp2-II gene sequences of 71 P. vivax isolates collected in different endemic settings of the Brazilian Amazon rainforest, where P. vivax is the predominant malaria-associated species. Although most of the substitutions in the ebp2-II gene were non-synonymous and suggested positive selection, the results showed that the DBL domain of the EBP2 was much less polymorphic than that of DBPII. The predominant EBP2 haplotype in the Amazon region corresponded to the C127 reference sequence first described in Cambodia (25% C127-like haplotype). An overview of ebp2-II gene sequences available at GenBank (n = 352) from seven countries (Cambodia, Madagascar, Myanmar, PNG, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam) confirmed the C127-like haplotype as highly prevalent worldwide. Two out of 43 haplotypes (5 to 20 inferred per country) showed a global frequency of 60%. The results presented here open new avenues of research pursuit while suggesting that a vaccine based on the DBL domain of EBP2 should target a few haplotypes for broad coverage.

Close Proximity to Mining Is Associated with Increased Prevalence of the Drug Resistance-Associated Mutation dhps540E in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

Increasing sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) resistance in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has threatened its use for prevention of malaria in one of the most malarious countries in the world. Using geographic information on mining operations in the DRC and genetic data on SP drug resistance markers from the 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Surveys, we evaluated associations between close residence to mining and the presence of mutations conferring resistance to sulfadoxine. Close residential proximity to mining was associated with increased prevalence odds ratio (POR) of the dhps540E mutation (POR: 2.11, 95% uncertainty interval: 1.15-3.96) with adjustments for confounding variables and space. Our findings indicate that exposure to mining is associated with increased presence of an antimalarial drug resistance haplotype that threatens effective use of SP for vulnerable populations. Areas actively engaged in mining could be considered for interventions to reduce the spread of emerging drug resistance in the DRC.

Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases

Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.

A snapshot of a representative Brazilian state of illegal mining in indigenous areas during the era of malaria elimination

Malaria is a public health problem and the cases diagnosed in the capital of Roraima, Brazil, show potential to characterize the burden of the disease in the state. This study aimed to describe the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory aspects of malaria cases diagnosed in Boa Vista. For this purpose, a descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted in two health units in the city, with individuals diagnosed and who agreed to respond the questionnaire. Of the total of 206 participants, characterized as men, mixed-race, and young, 96% (198) reported participating in illegal mining activity. Among the group of miners, 66% (131) came from other states of Brazil or other countries. The mines were mainly located in the Yanomami territory in Roraima. Plasmodium vivax infection occurred in 74% (153) of participants. In the miner's group, hospitalizations for severe malaria, previous malaria attacks, and delays in treatment after the onset of symptoms were reported. Although 73% (145) of miners reported knowing how malaria was transmitted, only 54% (107) used mosquito nets or repellents. The use of Artecom and chloroquine by miners is not for the complete treatment but only to relieve symptoms for returning to gold mines, highlighting the importance of molecular surveillance to antimalarial resistance. Indigenous peoples are considered vulnerable to malaria and miners promotes the increase of malaria in Roraima Indigenous Lands. Therefore, access to diagnosis and treatment in Indigenous areas invaded by miners is imperative to confront this disease that ravages Indigenous communities and threatens public health on a large scale to achieve the goal of eliminating malaria in the state.

Detection through the use of RT-MqPCR of asymptomatic reservoirs of malaria in samples of patients from the indigenous Comarca of Guna Yala, Panama: Essential method to achieve the elimination of malaria

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium vivax is the main causative agent of malaria in Panama. However, the prevalence of asymptomatic infections in the different endemic regions remains unknown. Understanding the epidemiological behavior of asymptomatic infections is essential for the elimination of malaria. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of asymptomatic malarial infections in one of the main endemic regions of Panama using multiplex real-time reverse transcription RT-MqPCR.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted in three communities in the Guna Yala Comarca. A total of 551 thick blood smears and their respective samples on filter paper were collected from volunteers of different ages and sexes from June 20 to 25, 2016. Infections by the Plasmodium spp. were diagnosed using microscopy and RT-MqPCR. All statistical analyses were performed using the R software.

RESULTS

The average prevalence of asymptomatic infections by P. vivax in the three communities detected by RT-MqPCR was 9.3%, with Ukupa having the highest prevalence (13.4%), followed by Aidirgandi (11.1%) and Irgandi (3.3%). A total of 74 samples were diagnosed as asymptomatic infections using RT-MqPCR. Light microscopy (LM) detected that 17.6% (13/74) of the asymptomatic samples and 82.4% (61/74) were diagnosed as false negatives. A 100% correlation was observed between samples diagnosed using LM and RT-MqPCR. A total of 52.7% (39/74) of the asymptomatic patients were female and 85.1% (63/74) were registered between the ages of 1 and 21 years. Factors associated with asymptomatic infection were community (aOR = 0.38 (95% CI 0.17-0.83), p < 0.001) and age aOR = 0.98 (95% CI 0.97-1.00), p < 0.05); F = 5.38; p < 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides novel evidence of the considerable prevalence of asymptomatic P. vivax infections in the endemic region of Kuna Yala, representing a new challenge that requires immediate attention from the National Malaria Program. The results of this study provide essential information for the health authorities responsible for developing new policies. Furthermore, it will allow program administrators to reorient and design effective malaria control strategies that consider asymptomatic infections as a fundamental part of malaria control and move towards fulfilling their commitment to eliminate it.

Bioactivity of synthetic peptides from Ecuadorian frog skin secretions against Leishmania mexicana, Plasmodium falciparum, and Trypanosoma cruzi

Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and malaria are major parasitic diseases disproportionately affecting the underprivileged population in developing nations. Finding new, alternative anti-parasitic compounds to treat these diseases is crucial because of the limited number of options currently available, the side effects they cause, the need for long treatment courses, and the emergence of drug-resistant parasites. Anti-microbial peptides (AMPs) derived from amphibian skin secretions are small bioactive molecules capable of lysing the cell membrane of pathogens while having low toxicity against human cells. Here, we report the anti-parasitic activity of five AMPs derived from skin secretions of three Ecuadorian frogs: cruzioseptin-1, cruzioseptin-4 (CZS-4), and cruzioseptin-16 from Cruziohyla calcarifer; dermaseptin-SP2 from Agalychnis spurrelli; and pictuseptin-1 from Boana picturata. These five AMPs were chemically synthesized. Initially, the hemolytic activity of CZS-4 and its minimal inhibitory concentration against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, and Candida albicans were determined. Subsequently, the cytotoxicity of the synthetic AMPs against mammalian cells and their anti-parasitic activity against Leishmania mexicana promastigotes, erythrocytic stages of Plasmodium falciparum and mammalian stages of Trypanosoma cruzi were evaluated in vitro. The five AMPs displayed activity against the pathogens studied, with different levels of cytotoxicity against mammalian cells. In silico molecular docking analysis suggests this bioactivity may occur via pore formation in the plasma membrane, resulting in microbial lysis. CZS-4 displayed anti-bacterial, anti-fungal, and anti-parasitic activities with low cytotoxicity against mammalian cells. Further studies about this promising AMP are required to gain a better understanding of its activity.IMPORTANCEChagas disease, malaria, and leishmaniasis are major tropical diseases that cause extensive morbidity and mortality, for which available treatment options are unsatisfactory because of limited efficacy and side effects. Frog skin secretions contain molecules with anti-microbial properties known as anti-microbial peptides. We synthesized five peptides derived from the skin secretions of different species of tropical frogs and tested them against cultures of the causative agents of these three diseases, parasites known as Trypanosoma cruzi, Plasmodium falciparum, and Leishmania mexicana. All the different synthetic peptides studied showed activity against one of more of the parasites. Peptide cruzioseptin-4 is of special interest since it displayed intense activity against parasites while being innocuous against cultured mammalian cells, which indicates it does not simply hold general toxic properties; rather, its activity is specific against the parasites.

Identification and serological responses to a novel Plasmodium vivax merozoite surface protein 1 (PvMSP-1) derived synthetic peptide: a putative biomarker for malaria exposure

Background

The integration of diagnostic methods holds promise for advancing the surveillance of malaria transmission in both endemic and non-endemic regions. Serological assays emerge as valuable tools to identify and delimit malaria transmission, serving as a complementary method to rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and thick smear microscopy. Here, we evaluate the potential of antibodies directed against peptides encompassing the entire amino acid sequence of the PvMSP-1 Sal-I strain as viable serological biomarkers for P. vivax exposure.

Methods

We screened peptides encompassing the complete amino acid sequence of the Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein 1 (PvMSP-1) Sal-I strain as potential biomarkers for P. vivax exposure. Here, immunodominant peptides specifically recognized by antibodies from individuals infected with P. vivax were identified using the SPOT-synthesis technique followed by immunoblotting. Two 15-mer peptides were selected based on their higher and specific reactivity in immunoblotting assays. Subsequently, peptides p70 and p314 were synthesized in soluble form using SPPS (Solid Phase Peptide Synthesis) and tested by ELISA (IgG, and subclasses).

Results

This study unveils the presence of IgG antibodies against the peptide p314 in most P. vivax-infected individuals from the Brazilian Amazon region. In silico B-cell epitope prediction further supports the utilization of p314 as a potential biomarker for evaluating malaria transmission, strengthened by its amino acid sequence being part of a conserved block of PvMSP-1. Indeed, compared to patients infected with P. falciparum and uninfected individuals never exposed to malaria, P. vivax-infected patients have a notably higher recognition of p314 by IgG1 and IgG3.

Malaria in areas under mining activity in the Amazon: A review

Deforestation and high human mobility due to mining activities have been key to the increase in malaria cases in the Americas. Here, we review the epidemiological and control aspects of malaria in the Amazon mining areas. Epidemiological evidence shows: 1) a positive correlation between illegal mining activity and malaria incidence, mostly in the Amazon region; 2) most Brazilian miners are males aged 15-29 years who move between states and even countries; 3) miners do not fear the disease and rely on medical care, diagnosis, and medication when they become ill; 4) illegal mining has emerged as the most reported anthropogenic activity within indigenous lands and is identified as a major cause of malaria outbreaks among indigenous people in the Amazon; and 5) because mining is largely illegal, most areas are not covered by any healthcare facilities or activities, leading to little assistance in the diagnosis and treatment of malaria. Our review identified five strategies for reducing the malaria incidence in areas with mining activities: 1) reviewing legislation to control deforestation and mining expansion, particularly in indigenous lands; 2) strengthening malaria surveillance by expanding the network of community health agents to support rapid diagnosis and treatment; 3) reinforcing vector control strategies, such as the use of insecticide-treated nets; 4) integrating deforestation alerts into the national malaria control program; and 5) implementing multi-sectoral activities and providing prompt assistance to indigenous populations. With this roadmap, we can expect a decrease in malaria incidence in the Amazonian mining areas in the future.

Perspectives of healthcare professionals on training for quantitative G6PD testing during implementation of tafenoquine in Brazil (QualiTRuST Study)

Effective radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria is essential for malaria elimination in Brazil. P. vivax radical cure requires administration of a schizonticide, such as chloroquine, plus an 8-aminoquinoline. However, 8-aminoquinolines cause hemolysis in individuals with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, requiring prior screening to exclude those at risk. Brazil is pioneering the implementation of tafenoquine, a single-dose 8-aminoquinoline indicated for P. vivax patients with >70% of normal G6PD activity. Tafenoquine implementation in Manaus and Porto Velho, two municipalities located in the western Brazilian Amazon, included comprehensive training of healthcare professionals (HCPs) on point-of-care quantitative G6PD testing and a new treatment algorithm for P. vivax radical cure incorporating tafenoquine. Training was initially provided to higher-level facilities (phase one) and later adapted for primary care units (phase two). This study analyzed HCP experiences during training and implementation and identified barriers and facilitators. In-depth interviews and focus discussion groups were conducted 30 days after each training for a purposive random sample of 115 HCPs. Thematic analysis was employed using MAXQDA software, analyzing data through inductive and deductive coding. Analysis showed that following the initial training for higher-level facilities, some HCPs did not feel confident performing quantitative G6PD testing and prescribing the tafenoquine regimen. Modifications to the training in phase two resulted in an improvement in understanding the implementation process of the G6PD test and tafenoquine, as well as in the knowledge acquired by HCPs. Additionally, knowledge gaps were addressed through in situ training, peer communication via a messaging app, and educational materials. Training supported effective deployment of the new tools in Manaus and Porto Velho and increased awareness of the need for pharmacovigilance. A training approach for nationwide implementation of these tools was devised. Implementing quantitative G6PD testing and tafenoquine represents a significant shift in P. vivax malaria case management. Consistent engagement with HCPs is needed to overcome challenges in fully integrating these tools within the Brazilian health system.

Molecular Surveillance of Artemisinin-Resistant Plasmodium falciparum Parasites in Mining Areas of the Roraima Indigenous Territory in Brazil

Multidrug- and artemisinin-resistant (ART-R) Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) parasites represent a challenge for malaria elimination worldwide. Molecular monitoring in the Kelch domain region (pfk13) gene allows tracking mutations in parasite resistance to artemisinin. The increase in illegal miners in the Roraima Yanomami indigenous land (YIL) could favor ART-R parasites. Thus, this study aimed to investigate ART-R in patients from illegal gold mining areas in the YIL of Roraima, Brazil. A questionnaire was conducted, and blood was collected from 48 patients diagnosed with P. falciparum or mixed malaria (Pf + P. vivax). The DNA was extracted and the pfk13 gene was amplified by PCR. The amplicons were subjected to DNA-Sanger-sequencing and the entire amplified fragment was analyzed. Among the patients, 96% (46) were from illegal mining areas of the YIL. All parasite samples carried the wild-type genotypes/ART-sensitive phenotypes. These data reinforce the continued use of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) in Roraima, as well as the maintenance of systematic monitoring for early detection of parasite populations resistant to ART, mainly in regions with an intense flow of individuals from mining areas, such as the YIL. This is especially true when the achievement of falciparum malaria elimination in Brazil is planned and expected by 2030.

Cooperation for malaria control and elimination in the Guiana Shield

The Guiana Shield, a small region of South America, is currently one of the main hotspots of malaria transmission on the continent. This Amazonian area is characterised by remarkable socioeconomic, cultural, health, and political heterogeneity and a high degree of regional and cross-border population mobility, which has contributed to the increase of malaria in the region in the past few years. In this context, regional cooperation to control malaria represents both a challenge and an indispensable initiative. This Viewpoint advocates for the creation of a regional cooperative mechanism for the elimination of malaria in the Guiana Shield. This strategy would help address operational and political obstacles to successful technical cooperation in the region and could contribute to reversing the regional upsurge in malaria incidence through creating a functional international control and elimination partnership.

Parasites and Viruses in Callithrix in Brazil

PURPOSE

As a result of environmental imbalances of anthropogenic origin, the potential for transmission of parasites and viruses between different primates, including humans, might increase. Thus, parasitic studies have great relevance to primatology, which motivated us to conduct a literature review to synthesize the information available in American primates of the Callithrix genus.

METHODS

We carried out the bibliographic search on the main groups of parasites (protozoa, helminths, arthropods, ectoparasites) and viruses found in Callithrix in Brazil in search platforms and consider all manuscript that appeared in search engines, published between the years 1910 and December 2022. In each selected article, the following information was recorded: the host species; parasite taxa; scientific classification of the parasite; host habitat (free-living, captive); diagnostic technique; state; and bibliographic reference. Data were tabulated and arranged in a parasite-host table.

RESULTS

Some endemic genera, such as Callithrix, are widely distributed geographically across Brazil and have characteristics of adaptation to different habitats due to their flexibility in diet and behavior. These factors can make them subject to a greater diversity of parasites and viruses in the country. Here, we identified 68 parasitic taxa, belonging to the clades protozoa (n = 22), helminths (n = 34), ectoparasites (n = 7), and viruses (n = 5). Out of this total, 19 have zoonotic potential. Of the six existing marmoset species, Callithrix jacchus was the most frequent in studies, and Callithrix flaviceps did not have reports. All regions of the country had occurrences, mainly the Southeast, where 54% of the cases were reported. In 46% of the reported parasites and viruses, it was not possible to identify the corresponding species.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that in part of the works the identification methods are not being specific, which makes it difficult to identify the species that affects Callithrix spp. Furthermore, the studies present geographic disparities, being concentrated in the southeast of the country, making it impossible to have a more uniform analysis of the findings. Thus, it is observed that information about parasites and viruses is incipient in the genus Callithrix in Brazil.

Artesunate-mefloquine therapy for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of efficacy and safety

To provide a continuous update on the safety and efficacy of artesunate-mefloquine (ASMQ) compared with other artemisinin combination therapy (ACT) schemes used in the treatment of uncomplicated malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum, this study updated and expanded the results of the systematic literature review published in 2016. Only randomised controlled clinical trials published from 1 January 2001 to 12 June 2023 from five databases were included in this study. The results related to efficacy, expressed through RR, were summarized in meta-analyses, performed according to the compared ACTs and with the intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses. The results related to safety were synthesized in a descriptive manner. Thirty-two studies were included, of which 24 had been analysed in the 2016 review and eight new ones were added. Although the methodological quality of most studies was considered moderate, the body of evidence gathered indicates that ASMQ continues to be safe and effective for the treatment of uncomplicated infections caused by P. falciparum compared with other ACTs. However, the inclusion of two new studies, which identified failure rates exceeding 10%, suggests a possible reduction in the efficacy of ASMQ in the analysed locations. The incidence of serious adverse effects, such as seizure, encephalopathy and cardiac arrhythmia, was infrequent in both the ASMQ group and the comparison groups. After including new evidence, ASMQ is still recommended as a first-line treatment of uncomplicated malaria caused by P. falciparum, although local aspects need to be considered.

Social determinants of health among people working on informal gold mines in French Guiana: a multicentre cross-sectional survey

INTRODUCTION

Social determinants of health, such as living and working conditions, economical and environmental context and access to care, combine to impact the health of individuals and communities. In French Guiana (FG), the persons working in informal artisanal and small-scale gold mining in the rainforest are a particularly vulnerable population which lives in precarious conditions and far from the health system. Previous studies have demonstrated their high morbidity due to infectious diseases. This study aims to describe the social determinants of health in this specific population.

METHODS

This international multicentre cross-sectional survey included people working on the informal FG gold mines at the crossing points located at both borders with Suriname and Brazil. After collecting written informed consent, a structured questionnaire was administered.

RESULTS

From September to December 2022, 539 gold miners were included. These poorly educated migrants, mainly from Brazil (99.1%) did not have access to drinkable water (95.4%), lived in close contact with wild fauna by hunting, eating bushmeat or being bitten and were exposed to mercury by inhalation (58.8%) or ingestion (80.5%). They report frequent accidents (13.5%) and chronic treatment interruptions (26.6% of the 11.9% reporting chronic treatment). Half of them considered themselves in good health (56.4%).

CONCLUSION

This study shows a singular combination of adverse exposures of gold miners working in FG such as zoonoses, heavy metal poisoning, aggression of wild fauna. For ethical as well as public health reasons, actions towards health equity must be considered at different levels: individual, community, environmental, systemic and global level. As end users of minerals, we must assume our responsibilities for the well-being of the extractors by including health in political decisions to engage together in global health.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05540470.

Etiological characterization of acute undifferentiated febrile illness in Apartadó and Villeta municipalities, Colombia, during COVID-19 pandemic

Background

Acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI) is one of the leading causes of illness in tropical regions. Although malaria is the most important cause, other pathogens such as Dengue (DENV), Leptospira and recently, Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have gained importance. In Colombia, few studies aimed to identify the etiology of AUFI. Most of them performed in Apartadó and Villeta municipalities, identifying the active circulation of several pathogens. Thus, we conducted a cross-sectional study in these municipalities to characterize the etiologies of AUFI during COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

An active surveillance was conducted between September and December 2021 in local hospitals of Apartadó and Villeta municipalities. Febrile patients were enrolled after voluntarily agreeing to participate in the study. Ten different etiologies were evaluated through direct, serological, molecular and rapid diagnostic methods.

Results

In Apartadó a confirmed etiology was found in 60% of subjects, DENV (25%) being the most frequent, followed by leptospirosis (16.7%), malaria (10%), COVID-19 (8.3%), spotted fever group (SFG) rickettsiosis (6.7%) and Chikungunya (1.7%). In Villeta, a specific etiology was confirmed in 55.4% of patients, of which SFG rickettsiosis (39.3%) was the most frequent, followed by leptospirosis (21.4%), DENV (3.6%) and malaria (1.8%). No cases due to Mayaro, Yellow Fever, Oropouche and Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis viruses were detected.

Conclusion

We confirm the relevance of dengue fever, leptospirosis, SFG rickettsiosis, COVID-19 and malaria as causes of AUFI in the municipality of Apartadó, and highlight the great importance of SFG rickettsiosis as the main cause of AUFI in the municipality of Villeta.

Imported cases of malaria in Brazil from South American countries: a retrospective ecological study from 2009 to 2022

The Legal Amazon region serves as a hotspot for imported malaria from other South American countries, with over 75% of cases concentrated in municipalities that cover extensive Indigenous territories. These areas have witnessed substantial escalations in deforestation and illegal mining activities over the years.

Time lag effect on malaria transmission dynamics in an Amazonian Colombian municipality and importance for early warning systems

Malaria remains a significant public health problem worldwide, particularly in low-income regions with limited access to healthcare. Despite the use of antimalarial drugs, transmission remains an issue in Colombia, especially among indigenous populations in remote areas. In this study, we used an SIR Ross MacDonald model that considered land use change, temperature, and precipitation to analyze eco epidemiological parameters and the impact of time lags on malaria transmission in La Pedrera-Amazonas municipality. We found changes in land use between 2007 and 2020, with increases in forested areas, urban infrastructure and water edges resulting in a constant increase in mosquito carrying capacity. Temperature and precipitation variables exhibited a fluctuating pattern that corresponded to rainy and dry seasons, respectively and a marked influence of the El Niño climatic phenomenon. Our findings suggest that elevated precipitation and temperature increase malaria infection risk in the following 2 months. The risk is influenced by the secondary vegetation and urban infrastructure near primary forest formation or water body edges. These results may help public health officials and policymakers develop effective malaria control strategies by monitoring precipitation, temperature, and land use variables to flag high-risk areas and critical periods, considering the time lag effect.

Genetic basis and spatial distribution of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency in ecuadorian ethnic groups: a malaria perspective

BACKGROUND

Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase deficiency (G6PDd) is an X-linked disorder affecting over 400 million people worldwide. Individuals with molecular variants associated with reduced enzymatic activity are susceptible to oxidative stress in red blood cells, thereby increasing the risk of pathophysiological conditions and toxicity to anti-malarial treatments. Globally, the prevalence of G6PDd varies among populations. Accordingly, this study aims to characterize G6PDd distribution within the Ecuadorian population and to describe the spatial distribution of reported malaria cases.

METHODS

Molecular variants associated with G6PDd were genotyped in 581 individuals from Afro-Ecuadorian, Indigenous, Mestizo, and Montubio ethnic groups. Additionally, spatial analysis was conducted to identify significant malaria clusters with high incidence rates across Ecuador, using data collected from 2010 to 2021.

RESULTS

The A- c.202G > A and A- c.968T > C variants underpin the genetic basis of G6PDd in the studied population. The overall prevalence of G6PDd was 4.6% in the entire population. However, this frequency increased to 19.2% among Afro-Ecuadorian people. Spatial analysis revealed 12 malaria clusters, primarily located in the north of the country and its Amazon region, with relative risks of infection of 2.02 to 87.88.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study hold significant implications for public health interventions, treatment strategies, and targeted efforts to mitigate the burden of malaria in Ecuador. The high prevalence of G6PDd among Afro-Ecuadorian groups in the northern endemic areas necessitates the development of comprehensive malaria eradication strategies tailored to this geographical region.

Primaquine and chloroquine nano-sized solid dispersion-loaded dissolving microarray patches for the improved treatment of malaria caused by Plasmodium vivax

Malaria is a global parasitic infection that leads to substantial illness and death. The most commonly-used drugs for treatment of malaria vivax are primaquine and chloroquine, but they have limitations, such as poor adherence due to frequent oral administration and gastrointestinal side effects. To overcome these limitations, we have developed nano-sized solid dispersion-based dissolving microarray patches (MAPs) for the intradermal delivery of these drugs. In vitro testing showed that these systems can deliver to skin and receiver compartment up to ≈60% of the payload for CQ-based dissolving MAPs and a total of ≈42% of drug loading for PQ-based dissolving MAPs. MAPs also displayed acceptable biocompatibility in cell tests. Pharmacokinetic studies in rats showed that dissolving MAPs could deliver sustained plasma levels of both PQ and CQ for over 7 days. Efficacy studies in a murine model for malaria showed that mice treated with PQ-MAPs and CQ-MAPs had reduced parasitaemia by up to 99.2%. This pharmaceutical approach may revolutionise malaria vivax treatment, especially in developing countries where the disease is endemic. The development of these dissolving MAPs may overcome issues associated with current pharmacotherapy and improve patient outcomes.

Natural Infection of Nyssorhynchus darlingi and Nyssorhynchus benarrochi B with Plasmodium during the Dry Season in the Understudied Low-Transmission Setting of Datem del Marañon Province, Amazonian Peru

The persistence of malaria hotspots in Datem del Marañon Province, Peru, prompted vector control units at the Ministry of Health, Loreto Department, to collaborate with the Amazonian International Center of Excellence for Malaria Research to identify the main vectors in several riverine villages that had annual parasite indices > 15 in 2018-2019. Anophelinae were collected indoors and outdoors for two 12-hour nights/community during the dry season in 2019 using human landing catch. We identified four species: Nyssorhynchus benarrochi B, Nyssorhynchus darlingi, Nyssorhynchus triannulatus, and Anopheles mattogrossensis. The most abundant, Ny. benarrochi B, accounted for 96.3% of the total (7,550/7,844), of which 61.5% were captured outdoors (4,641/7,550). Six mosquitoes, one Ny. benarrochi B and five Ny. darlingi, were infected by Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax. Human biting rates ranged from 0.5 to 592.8 bites per person per hour for Ny. benarrochi B and from 0.5 to 32.0 for Ny. darlingi, with entomological inoculation rates as high as 0.50 infective bites per night for Ny. darlingi and 0.25 for Ny. benarrochi B. These data demonstrate the risk of malaria transmission by both species even during the dry season in villages in multiple watersheds in Datem del Marañon province.

Malaria prevalence in Commune 5 in Tumaco (Nariño, Colombia)

Background Urban malaria is a public health problem in Colombia and there is still lack of knowledge about its epidemiological characteristics, which are key to the implementation of control measures. The presence of urban malaria cases and disease diagnosis are some of the challenges faced by malaria elimination programs. The objective of this research was to estimate malaria prevalence, explore associated factors and detect pfhrp 2/3 genes, in the urban area of Tumaco between July and December 2019. Methods A prevalence study was conducted by using a stratified random probability sample. Structured surveys were administered and blood samples were taken and examined through optical microscopy, rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). A logistic regression model was used to explore associated factors. Results 1,504 people living in 526 households were surveyed. The overall prevalence was 2.97% (95% CI: 2.1 - 4.3%). It was higher in males, in the 10-19 age group and in asymptomatic cases. The prevalence of pfhrp2 amplification was 2.16% (95% CI: 1.6 - 2.9%). Households with three or more people had a higher risk of malaria infection (adjusted odds ratio (ORa) 4.05; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.57-10.43). All cases were due to P. falciparum. Conclusions The prevalence of urban malaria was low. Strategies to eliminate malaria in urban areas should be adjusted considering access to early diagnosis, asymptomatic infection, and the RDTs used to detect the presence of the pfhrp2 gene.

Incidence of malaria among indigenous people associated with the presence of artisanal mining

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the incidence of malaria among indigenous people associated with the presence of artisanal miningin the state of Pará.

METHOD

Analytical, cross-sectional study conducted with 20,774 cases of malaria in indigenous people in the state of Pará (2011 to 2020). The data came from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, obtained from the Pará State Department of Public Health. In the analysis, Spearman's correlation coefficient was used, with a significance of 5% (p < 0.05).

RESULTS

Incidence rates were high, especially in the Tapajós River Indigenous Special Health District (372.2/1,000 inhabitants). There was association between the incidence of malaria and the presence of indigenous people in artisanalmining activities on the Tapajós River (p=0.0008).

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of malaria is unequal among the Special Indigenous Health Districts, being more frequent in those with greater mining activity, configuring exposure to the disease. It is necessary to adopt intersectoral measures, especially in areas of vulnerability to illness.

Migrants in transit across Central America and the potential spread of chloroquine resistant malaria-a call for action

Human migration has shaped the distribution and patterns of infectious diseases transmission throughout history. Migration is one of the contributing factors that has played an important role in the dissemination of drug-resistant Plasmodium falciparum. Central America and Mexico are important transit points of an increasing migrant flow originating from countries where chloroquine-resistant P. falciparum and vivax are prevalent. Surveillance systems, as well as detection and diagnostic capacities in the Central American region, are limited. The additional challenges imposed by the increasingly mobile population in the region are creating the perfect scenario for the emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases, such as the introduction of chloroquine-resistant malaria. The development and implementation of transborder, collaborative, and ethical migrant health initiatives in the region are urgently needed. The health of migrant people in transit during their migratory route is of our collective interest and responsibility; their exclusion from health programs based on their legal status contradicts international human rights treaties and is inconsistent with ethical global public health practice.

Malaria Molecular Surveillance in the Peruvian Amazon with a Novel Highly Multiplexed Plasmodium falciparum AmpliSeq Assay

Molecular surveillance for malaria has great potential to support national malaria control programs (NMCPs). To bridge the gap between research and implementation, several applications (use cases) have been identified to align research, technology development, and public health efforts. For implementation at NMCPs, there is an urgent need for feasible and cost-effective tools. We designed a new highly multiplexed deep sequencing assay (Pf AmpliSeq), which is compatible with benchtop sequencers, that allows high-accuracy sequencing with higher coverage and lower cost than whole-genome sequencing (WGS), targeting genomic regions of interest. The novelty of the assay is its high number of targets multiplexed into one easy workflow, combining population genetic markers with 13 nearly full-length resistance genes, which is applicable for many different use cases. We provide the first proof of principle for hrp2 and hrp3 deletion detection using amplicon sequencing. Initial sequence data processing can be performed automatically, and subsequent variant analysis requires minimal bioinformatic skills using any tabulated data analysis program. The assay was validated using a retrospective sample collection (n = 254) from the Peruvian Amazon between 2003 and 2018. By combining phenotypic markers and a within-country 28-single-nucleotide-polymorphism (SNP) barcode, we were able to distinguish different lineages with multiple resistance haplotypes (in dhfr, dhps, crt and mdr1) and hrp2 and hrp3 deletions, which have been increasing in recent years. We found no evidence to suggest the emergence of artemisinin (ART) resistance in Peru. These findings indicate a parasite population that is under drug pressure but is susceptible to current antimalarials and demonstrate the added value of a highly multiplexed molecular tool to inform malaria strategies and surveillance systems. IMPORTANCE While the power of next-generation sequencing technologies to inform and guide malaria control programs has become broadly recognized, the integration of genomic data for operational incorporation into malaria surveillance remains a challenge in most countries where malaria is endemic. The main obstacles include limited infrastructure, limited access to high-throughput sequencing facilities, and the need for local capacity to run an in-country analysis of genomes at a large-enough scale to be informative for surveillance. In addition, there is a lack of standardized laboratory protocols and automated analysis pipelines to generate reproducible and timely results useful for relevant stakeholders. With our standardized laboratory and bioinformatic workflow, malaria genetic surveillance data can be readily generated by surveillance researchers and malaria control programs in countries of endemicity, increasing ownership and ensuring timely results for informed decision- and policy-making.

Notification of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Basin from 2010 to 2020: an analysis of the reporting times

BACKGROUND

As controlling malaria transmission remains a public-health challenge in the Brazilian Amazon basin, the National Surveillance System for Malaria (SIVEP-MALARIA) has registered malaria notifications for over fifteen years helping in the decision-making on control and elimination. As a surveillance database, the system is prone to reporting delays, and knowledge about reporting patterns is essential in decisions.

METHODS

This study contains an analysis of temporal and state trends of reporting times in a total of 1,580,617 individual malaria reports from January 2010 to December 2020, applying procedures for statistical distribution fitting. A nowcasting technique was applied to show an estimation of number of cases using a statistical model of reporting delays.

RESULTS

Reporting delays increased over time for the states of Amazonas, Rondônia, Roraima, and Pará. Amapá has maintained a similar reporting delay pattern, while Acre decreased reporting delay between 2010 and 2020. Predictions were more accurate in states with lower reporting delays. The temporal evolution of reporting delays only showed a decrease in malaria reports in Acre from 2010 to 2020.

CONCLUSION

Malaria notifications may take days or weeks to enter the national surveillance database. The reporting times are likely to impact incidence estimation over periods when data is incomplete, whilst the impact of delays becomes smaller for retrospective analysis. Short-term assessments for the estimation of malaria incidence from the malaria control programme must deal with reporting delays.

Population-based genomic study of Plasmodium vivax malaria in seven Brazilian states and across South America

Background

Brazil is a unique and understudied setting for malaria, with complex foci of transmission associated with human and environmental conditions. An understanding of the population genomic diversity of P. vivax parasites across Brazil can support malaria control strategies.

Methods

Through whole genome sequencing of P. vivax isolates across 7 Brazilian states, we use population genomic approaches to compare genetic diversity within country (n = 123), continent (6 countries, n = 315) and globally (26 countries, n = 885).

Findings

We confirm that South American isolates are distinct, have more ancestral populations than the other global regions, with differentiating mutations in genes under selective pressure linked to antimalarial drugs (pvmdr1, pvdhfr-ts) and mosquito vectors (pvcrmp3, pvP45/48, pvP47). We demonstrate Brazil as a distinct parasite population, with signals of selection including ABC transporter (PvABCI3) and PHIST exported proteins.

Interpretation

Brazil has a complex population structure, with evidence of P. simium infections and Amazonian parasites separating into multiple clusters. Overall, our work provides the first Brazil-wide analysis of P. vivax population structure and identifies important mutations, which can inform future research and control measures.

Funding

AI is funded by an MRC LiD PhD studentship. TGC is funded by the Medical Research Council (Grant no. MR/M01360X/1, MR/N010469/1, MR/R025576/1, MR/R020973/1 and MR/X005895/1). SC is funded by Medical Research Council UK grants (MR/M01360X/1, MR/R025576/1, MR/R020973/1 and MR/X005895/1) and Bloomsbury SET (ref. CCF17-7779). FN is funded by The Shloklo Malaria Research Unit - part of the Mahidol Oxford Research Unit, supported by the Wellcome Trust (Grant no. 220211). ARSB is funded by São Paulo Research Foundation - FAPESP (Grant no. 2002/09546-1). RLDM is funded by Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development - CNPq (Grant no. 302353/2003-8 and 471605/2011-5); CRFM is funded by FAPESP (Grant no. 2020/06747-4) and CNPq (Grant no. 302917/2019-5 and 408636/2018-1); JGD is funded by FAPESP fellowships (2016/13465-0 and 2019/12068-5) and CNPq (Grant no. 409216/2018-6).

Plasmodium vivax in Children: Hidden Burden and Conspicuous Challenges, a Narrative Review

There has been progress towards decreasing malaria prevalence globally; however, Plasmodium vivax has been less responsive to elimination efforts compared with Plasmodium falciparum. P. vivax malaria remains a serious public health concern in regions where it is the dominant species (South and South-East Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean region, and South America) and is increasingly recognized for its contribution to overall morbidity and mortality worldwide. The incidence of P. vivax decreases with increasing age owing to rapidly acquired clinical immunity and there is a disproportionate burden of P. vivax in infants and children, who remain highly vulnerable to severe disease, recurrence, and anemia with associated developmental impacts. Diagnosis is sometimes difficult owing to the sensitivity of diagnostic tests to detect low levels of parasitemia. Additionally, the propensity of P. vivax to relapse following reactivation of dormant hypnozoites in the liver contributes to disease recurrence in infants and children, and potentiates morbidity and transmission. The 8-aminoquinolines, primaquine and tafenoquine, provide radical cure (relapse prevention). However, the risk of hemolysis in patients with glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency necessitates testing prior to administration of 8-aminoquinolines, which has limited their uptake. Additional challenges include lack of availability of pediatric dose formulations and problems with adherence to primaquine owing to the length of treatment recommended. A paucity of data and studies specific to pediatric P. vivax malaria impacts the ability to deliver targeted interventions. It is imperative that P. vivax in infants and children be the focus of future research, control initiatives, and anti-malarial drug development.

Measures of malaria transmission, infection, and disease in an area bordering two districts with and without sustained indoor residual spraying of insecticide in Uganda

Tororo District, in Eastern Uganda, experienced a dramatic decline in malaria burden starting in 2014 following the implementation of indoor residual spraying of insecticide (IRS) in the setting of repeated long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) distribution campaigns. However, in 2020 malaria began to resurge in Tororo following a change in the active ingredient used for IRS. In this study, epidemiological measures of malaria were compared shortly after the resurgence between two parishes in Tororo District (Kayoro and Osukuru) and one contiguous parish in Busia District (Buteba), where IRS has never been implemented. A cohort of 483 residents from 80 randomly selected households were followed from August 2020 to January 2021. Mosquitoes were collected every 2 weeks using CDC light traps in rooms where participants slept; parasitemia and gametoctyemia measured every 4 weeks by microscopy and PCR; and symptomatic malaria measured by passive surveillance. The annual entomological inoculation rate was significantly higher in Buteba (108.2 infective bites/person/year), compared to Osukuru (59.0, p = 0.001) and Kayoro (27.4, p<0.001). Overall, parasite prevalence was 19.5% by microscopy and 50.7% by PCR, with no significant differences between the three parishes. Among infected individuals, gametocyte prevalence by PCR was 45.5% and similar between sites. The incidence of malaria was significantly higher in Osukuru (2.46 episodes PPY) compared to Buteba (1.47, p = 0.005) and Kayoro (1.09, p<0.001). For participants over 15 years of age, the risk of symptomatic malaria if microscopic parasitemia was present was higher in Osukuru (relative risk [RR] = 2.99, p = 0.03) compared to Buteba. These findings highlight the complex relationships between measures of malaria transmission, infection, and disease, and the potential for excess disease burden, possibly due to waning immunity, in areas where vector control interventions begin to fail after a sustained period of highly effective control.

Knowledge, attitudes, and practices about malaria in travelers to risk areas in Peru

BACKGROUND

Travelers from international airports who travel to endemic countries know the knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) about malaria; however, it is still unknown to interprovincial travelers who go to the endemic regions of Peru. The objective is to determine the level of KAP about malaria among Peruvian travelers to risk areas.

METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

This are an analytical cross-sectional study of 277 passengers from a bus station in a low-risk area of malaria in Peru, whose destination was an intermediate/high-risk area during February-March 2018. Absolute and relative frequencies of personal variables associated with the trip and KAP were estimated.

RESULTS

Less than 50% know the main symptoms of malaria and at what time of day there is a greater risk of becoming infected. Five out of ten people knew which practices were preventive against contagion, and four out of ten answered that the treatment can be given in a health establishment, pharmacy, or by some healer.

CONCLUSIONS

Travelers to malaria endemic areas have a low level of knowledge and practice (39.7%) as well as an inadequate preventive attitude (35.4%) against malaria.

Resolving drug selection and migration in an inbred South American Plasmodium falciparum population with identity-by-descent analysis

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum is globally widespread, but its prevalence varies significantly between and even within countries. Most population genetic studies in P. falciparum focus on regions of high transmission where parasite populations are large and genetically diverse, such as sub-Saharan Africa. Understanding population dynamics in low transmission settings, however, is of particular importance as these are often where drug resistance first evolves. Here, we use the Pacific Coast of Colombia and Ecuador as a model for understanding the population structure and evolution of Plasmodium parasites in small populations harboring less genetic diversity. The combination of low transmission and a high proportion of monoclonal infections means there are few outcrossing events and clonal lineages persist for long periods of time. Yet despite this, the population is evolutionarily labile and has successfully adapted to changes in drug regime. Using newly sequenced whole genomes, we measure relatedness between 166 parasites, calculated as identity by descent (IBD), and find 17 distinct but highly related clonal lineages, six of which have persisted in the region for at least a decade. This inbred population structure is captured in more detail with IBD than with other common population structure analyses like PCA, ADMIXTURE, and distance-based trees. We additionally use patterns of intra-chromosomal IBD and an analysis of haplotypic variation to explore past selection events in the region. Two genes associated with chloroquine resistance, crt and aat1, show evidence of hard selective sweeps, while selection appears soft and/or incomplete at three other key resistance loci (dhps, mdr1, and dhfr). Overall, this work highlights the strength of IBD analyses for studying parasite population structure and resistance evolution in regions of low transmission, and emphasizes that drug resistance can evolve and spread in small populations, as will occur in any region nearing malaria elimination.

Gold miners augment malaria transmission in indigenous territories of Roraima state, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Endemic malaria is present in all 15 municipalities of Roraima state, Brazilian Amazonia. Knowledge of epidemiological data of specific populations can guide health policies to formulate effective strategies for integrated control of health-disease care. This study aims to ascertain when, where and who fell ill with malaria in Roraima state from 2010 to 2020.

METHODS

This descriptive study was based on statistical secondary surveillance data through the analysis of relationships underlying numbers of cases, hospitalizations and deaths using the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance Information System, Mortality Information System and Hospitalization Information System.

RESULTS

From 2010 to 2020, there were 138,504 autochthonous cases, 26,158 Venezuelan imported cases, 3765 hospitalizations, and 77 deaths from malaria reported in Roraima. Annual parasitic incidence and the number of hospitalizations showed impressive changes over the period, but without significantly correlating with number of deaths. The proportion of Plasmodium falciparum infections had significant shifts throughout this study. Malaria prevalence in indigenous and mining areas has been increasing since 2014.

CONCLUSION

The presence of miners in indigenous areas is a reality that has been contributing to the increase of malaria cases in Roraima. The need to implement health policies that also meet this contingent is reinforced.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 and 3 deletions in Peru

Peru was the first country where pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions were detected despite the fact that rapid diagnostics tests are not commonly used for confirmatory malaria diagnosis. This context provides a unique scenario to study the dynamics of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions without apparent RDTs selection pressure. In this study we characterized the presence of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 genes on 325 P. falciparum samples collected in Iquitos and surrounding communities between 2011 and 2018 in order to understand the dynamics of gene deletion prevalence, potential associations with clinical symptomatology and parasite genetic background. P. falciparum presence was confirmed by microscopy and PCR of 18 s rRNA, pfmsp1 and pfmsp2. Gene deletions were assessed by amplification of exon1 and exon2 of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 using gene specific PCRs. Confirmation of absence of HRP2 expression was assessed by ELISA of HRP2 and pLDH. Genotyping of 254 samples were performed using a panel of seven neutral microsatellite markers. Overall, pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 dual gene deletions were detected in 67% (217/324) parasite samples. Concordance between pfhrp2 deletion and negligible HRP2 protein levels was observed (Cohen's Kappa = 0.842). Prevalence of gene deletions was heterogeneous across study sites (adjusted p < 0.005) but there is an overall tendency towards increase through time in the prevalence of dual pfhrp2/3-deleted parasites between 2011 (14.3%) and 2016 (88.39%) stabilizing around 65% in 2018. Dual deletions increase was associated with dominance of a single new parasite haplotype (H8) which rapidly spread to all study sites during the 8 study years. Interestingly, participants infected with dual pfhrp2/3-deleted parasites had a significantly lower parasitemias than those without gene deletions in this cohort. Our study showed the increase of pfhrp2/3 deletions in the absence of RDTs pressure and a clonal replacement of circulating lines in the Peruvian Amazon basin. These results suggest that other factors linked to the pfhrp2/3 deletion provide a selective advantage over non-deleted strains and highlight the need for additional studies and continuing surveillance.

Biodefensive Based on Piper nigrum Essential Oil for Controlling of Anopheles aquasalis Larvae: Influence of Temperature (35 °C) and Preservatives

Considerable efforts have been spent on the development of biodefensives based on the encapsulation of essential oils for controlling of urban pests from their larval stage, especially as anopheline controlling agents. The larval source management of Anopheles aquasalis is important for malaria prevention. For this reason, this research proposes larvicidal biodefensives based on polymeric particles loaded with Piper nigrum essential oil, considering the influence of temperature (35 °C) and preservatives on the formulation stability. The biodefensive containing the preservative phenoxyethanol/methylisothiazolinone (PNE) resulted in 5 months of shelf-life storage with an Encapsulation Efficiency (EE%) of essential oil of 70%. The biodefensive PNE (containing 500 µg.mL−1 of encapsulated essential oil) presented a polydisperse particle size distribution, ranging from D10 = (127 ± 10) nm to D90 = (472 ± 78) nm and a particle mean size of (236 ± 34) nm. The AFM images revealed a spherical morphology with an external surface almost regular and smooth. The controlled release of the essential oil was evaluated up to 72 h according to the Korsmeyer-Peppas mathematical model, confirming the anomalous transport (n = 0.64 in pH = 3 and pH = 10, and n = 0.65 in pH = 7). The total larvae mortality on the in loco bioassays was almost reached (92%) after 24 h. However, according to the in vitro bioassays applying the in natura essential oil alone, the concentration of 454 μg.mL−1 resulted on the mortality of 70% of the larvae after 24 h. For this reason, the highest efficiency of the biodefensive PNE may be related to the encapsulation of essential oil, delivering the loaded particles more efficiently inside the larvae. From this perspective, the present study shows that a formulation based on P. nigrum essential oil may be taken into account in the integrated management of disease vector mosquitoes.

Imported malaria definition and minimum data for surveillance

The mobility of malaria-infected individuals poses challenges to elimination campaigns by way of spreading parasite drug resistance, straining country-to-country collaboration, and making routine data collection difficult, especially in resource-poor settings. Nevertheless, no concerted effort has been made to develop a common framework to define the spatial and temporal components of an imported malaria case and recommend the minimum data needed to identify it. We conducted a scoping review of imported malaria literature from 2010 to 2020 which showed that definitions vary widely, and local capabilities of detecting importation are often restricted in low-income countries. Following this, we propose a common definition for imported malaria and the minimum data required to identify a case, depending on the country's capability of conducting an epidemiological investigation. Lastly, we utilize the proposed definition using data from Brazil to demonstrate both the feasibility and the importance of tracking imported cases. The case of Brazil highlights the capabilities of regular surveillance systems to monitor importation, but also the need to regularly use these data for informing local responses. Supporting countries to use regularly collected data and adopt a common definition is paramount to tackling the importation of malaria cases and achieving elimination goals set forth by the World Health Organization.

Malaria in indigenous and non-indigenous patients aged under 15 years between 2007-2018, Amazonas state, Brazil

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a serious problem in children because the immune system is less developed, thus, causing more severe symptoms. This study aimed to identify factors associated with malaria in indigenous and non-indigenous patients aged under 15 years in Amazonas, Brazil, from 2007 to 2018.

METHODS

An epidemiological, quantitative, cross-sectional study was conducted. Cases included patients aged under 15 years, using data from health system notifications between 2007 and 2018 in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. The variables included clinical-epidemiological, laboratory findings, and monitoring of cases. The outcome was ethnicity: indigenous, non-indigenous, and entries for which no ethnicity data were provided. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to compare the indigenous and non-indigenous populations.

RESULTS

Among malaria cases in patients aged under 15 years, there was a greater chance of being indigenous and having the following associated factors: female sex, children aged 0-4 years, passive case surveillance, a high load of parasitemia and the lack of data regarding the level of parasitemia, Plasmodium falciparum infections were more frequent, and timeliness of treatment, i.e., the interval between the onset of symptoms and time of treatment was within 48 hours.

CONCLUSIONS

The factors associated with malaria are more frequent in indigenous populations and highlight differences according to ethnicity, suggesting that the severity of the disease is attributable to the increased number of malarial infections within this population. As a result, malaria has a greater impact on the health of indigenous people.

Malaria Resilience in South America: Epidemiology, Vector Biology, and Immunology Insights from the Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research Network in Peru and Brazil

The 1990s saw the rapid reemergence of malaria in Amazonia, where it remains an important public health priority in South America. The Amazonian International Center of Excellence in Malaria Research (ICEMR) was designed to take a multidisciplinary approach toward identifying novel malaria control and elimination strategies. Based on geographically and epidemiologically distinct sites in the Northeastern Peruvian and Western Brazilian Amazon regions, synergistic projects integrate malaria epidemiology, vector biology, and immunology. The Amazonian ICEMR's overarching goal is to understand how human behavior and other sociodemographic features of human reservoirs of transmission-predominantly asymptomatically parasitemic people-interact with the major Amazonian malaria vector, Nyssorhynchus (formerly Anopheles) darlingi, and with human immune responses to maintain malaria resilience and continued endemicity in a hypoendemic setting. Here, we will review Amazonian ICEMR's achievements on the synergies among malaria epidemiology, Plasmodium-vector interactions, and immune response, and how those provide a roadmap for further research, and, most importantly, point toward how to achieve malaria control and elimination in the Americas.

Drug resistance and population structure of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in the Peruvian Amazon

Malaria is a major health problem in Peru despite substantial progress achieved by the ongoing malaria elimination program. This study explored the population genetics of 63 Plasmodium falciparum and 170 P. vivax cases collected in the Peruvian Amazon Basin between 2015 and 2019. Microscopy and PCR were used for malaria detection and positive samples were genotyped at neutral and drug resistance-associated regions. The P. falciparum population exhibited a low nucleotide diversity (π = 0.02) whereas the P. vivax population presented a higher genetic diversity (π = 0.34). All P. falciparum samples (n = 63) carried chloroquine (CQ) resistant mutations on Pfcrt. Most P. falciparum samples (53 out of 54) carried sulfadoxine (SD) resistant mutations on Pfdhfr and Pfdhps. No evidence was found of artemisinin resistance mutations on kelch13. Population structure showed that a single cluster accounted for 93.4% of the P. falciparum samples whereas three clusters were found for P. vivax. Our study shows a low genetic diversity for both species with significant differences in genetic sub-structuring. The high prevalence of CQ-resistance mutations could be a result of indirect selection pressures driven by the P. vivax treatment scheme. These results could be useful for public health authorities to safeguard the progress that Peru has achieved towards malaria elimination.

Anopheline diversity in urban and peri-urban malaria foci: comparison between alternative traps and seasonal effects in a city in the Western Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Continuous vector surveillance and sustainable interventions are mandatory in order to prevent anopheline proliferation (or spread to new areas) and interrupt malaria transmission. Anopheline abundance and richness were evaluated in urban and peri-urban malaria foci at a medium-sized city in the Brazilian Amazon, comparing the protected human landing catch technique (PHLC) and alternative sampling methods over different seasonal periods. Additional information was assessed for female feeding behaviour and faunal composition.

METHODS

Anophelines were sampled bimonthly in four urban and peri-urban sites in the city of Porto Velho, state of Rondônia, Brazil. The average number of captured mosquitoes was compared between an PHLC (gold standard), a tent trap (Gazetrap), and a barrier screen by means of generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), which also included season and environment (peri-urban/urban) as predictors.

RESULTS

Overall, 2962 Anopheles individuals belonging to 12 species and one complex were caught; Anopheles darlingi represented 86% of the individuals. More mosquitoes were captured in the peri-urban setting, and the urban setting was more diverse. The model estimates that significantly more anophelines were collected by PHLC than by the Screen method, and Gazetrap captured fewer individuals. However, the Screen technique yielded more blood-engorged females. The peak hours of biting activity were from 6 to 7 p.m. in urban areas and from 7 to 8 p.m. in peri-urban areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Although peri-urban settings presented a greater abundance of anophelines, Shannon and Simpson diversities were higher in urban sites. Each technique proved to be useful, depending on the purpose: PHLC was more effective in capturing the highest anopheline densities, Gazetrap caught the greatest number of species, and the barrier screen technique captured more engorged individuals. There was no seasonal effect on Anopheles assemblage structure; however, a more diverse fauna was caught in the transitional season. Biting activity was more intense from 6 to 8 p.m., with a predominance of An. darlingi.

Synergies between environmental degradation and climate variation on malaria re-emergence in southern Venezuela: a spatiotemporal modelling study

BACKGROUND

Environmental degradation facilitates the emergence of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria, through changes in the ecological landscape that increase human-vector contacts and that expand vector habitats. However, the modifying effects of environmental degradation on climate-disease relationships have not been well explored. Here, we investigate the rapid re-emergence of malaria in a transmission hotspot in southern Venezuela and explore the synergistic effects of environmental degradation, specifically gold-mining activity, and climate variation.

METHODS

In this spatiotemporal modelling study of the 46 parishes of the state of Bolívar, southeast Venezuela, we used data from the Venezuelan Ministry of Health including population data and monthly cases of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and Plasmodium vivax malaria between 1996 and 2016. We estimated mean precipitation and temperature using the ERA5-Land dataset and used monthly anomalies in sea-surface temperature as an indicator of El Niño events between 1996 and 2016. The location of suspected mining sites in Bolívar in 2009, 2017, and 2018 were sourced from the Amazon Geo-Referenced Socio-Environmental Information Network. We estimated measures of cumulative forest loss and urban development by km2 using annual land cover maps from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative between 1996 and 2016. We modelled monthly cases of P falciparum and P vivax malaria using a Bayesian hierarchical mixed model framework. We quantified the variation explained by mining activity before exploring the modifying effects of environmental degradation on climate-malaria relationships.

FINDINGS

We observed a 27% reduction in the additional unexplained spatial variation in incidence of P falciparum malaria and a 23% reduction in P vivax malaria when mining was included in our models. The effect of temperature on malaria was greater in high mining areas than low mining areas, and the P falciparum malaria effect size at temperatures of 26·5°C (2·4 cases per 1000 people [95% CI 1·78-3·06]) was twice as high as the effect in low mining areas (1 case per 1000 people [0·68-1·49]).

INTERPRETATION

We show that mining activity in southern Venezuela is associated with hotspots of malaria transmission. Increased temperatures exacerbated malaria transmission in mining areas, highlighting the need to consider how environmental degradation modulates climate effect on disease risk, which is especially important in areas subjected to rapidly rising temperatures and land-use change globally. Our findings have implications for the progress towards malaria elimination in the Latin American region. Our findings are also important for effectively targeting timely treatment programmes and vector-control activities in mining areas with high rates of malaria transmission.

FUNDING

Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Royal Society, US National Institutes of Health, and Global Challenges Research Fund.

TRANSLATION

For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Vectorial capacities for malaria in eastern Amazonian Brazil depend on village, vector species, season, and parasite species

BACKGROUND

The vector species in the Amazon River Basin are regionally and locally diverse, which makes it imperative to understand and compare their roles in malaria transmission to help select appropriate methods of intervention and evaluation. The major aim of this study was to measure the vectorial capacity of five Anopheles species in three neighbouring villages, for two Plasmodium parasite species affecting humans.

METHODS

From 32 consecutive months of sampling in three villages, 1.5-7.0 km apart, on the Matapi River, Amapá State, Brazil, vectorial capacities (C) were estimated as time series for An. darlingi, An. marajoara, An. nuneztovari, An. triannulatus, and An. intermedius. Monthly parity measurements for each vector species were used to estimate daily survivorship and compared to estimates of survivorship from mark-release-recapture experiments. Gonotrophic cycle lengths were estimated through a time-series analysis of parity data, and durations of sporogony at study site temperatures for the two malaria parasite species were estimated from previous literature.

RESULTS

The absolute abundances of five vector species were strongly tracked by the spatial variation in C among villages. Temporally, C varied between wet and dry seasons, with An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. triannulatus exhibiting higher C in the dry season from August to December, and An. nuneztovari its highest C early in the rainy season in January and February. Anopheles intermedius exhibited higher C in the rainy season from April to June than in the dry season. Significant differences in overall survival for each independent variable, and a significant difference in C between wet and dry seasons, among villages, and among vector species for both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax. A generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) analysis by village showed significant effects of vector species on C in only one village, but significant effects of parasite species in all three. Although the GLMM analysis detected no significant parasite x vector species interaction effects on C, effects on C of spline regressions of C dynamics x vector species interactions were significant in all villages.

CONCLUSIONS

These detailed analyses of entomological and parasitological variables revealed hidden complexities of malaria epidemiology at local scales in neighbouring riverine villages of the Amazon Region.

Pandemic of hunger: The severe nutritional deficiency that kills Yanomami ethnic children

Chronic malnutrition is the painful reality that Yanomami children face in Brazil's largest Indigenous Land and is pointed out by specialists as one of the results of the federal government's "anti-indigenous policy". The lack, or scarcity, of medical care, together with the lack of environmental inspection, pushes the Yanomami into a desperate scenario. It is estimated that 20,000 illegal miners operate in the territory. Mining activity contaminates rivers with mercury and has caused deformities and illnesses in women and children. They live on the largest indigenous reserve in Brazil. There are nine million hectares within the Amazon Forest. Malaria has persistently advanced in Yanomami land: there are more than 16,000 cases this year alone. Several children are dying.

Spatial patterns and climate drivers of malaria in three border areas of Brazil, Venezuela and Guyana, 2016-2018

In 2020, 77% of malaria cases in the Americas were concentrated in Venezuela, Brazil, and Colombia. These countries are characterized by a heterogeneous malaria landscape and malaria hotspots. Furthermore, the political unrest in Venezuela has led to significant cross-border population movement. Hence, the aim of this study was to describe spatial patterns and identify significant climatic drivers of malaria transmission along the Venezuela-Brazil-Guyana border, focusing on Bolivar state, Venezuela and Roraima state, Brazil. Malaria case data, stratified by species from 2016 to 2018, were obtained from the Brazilian Malaria Epidemiology Surveillance Information System, the Guyana Vector Borne Diseases Program, the Venezuelan Ministry of Health, and civil society organizations. Spatial autocorrelation in malaria incidence was explored using Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics. A Poisson regression model was developed with a conditional autoregressive prior structure and posterior parameters were estimated using the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation with Gibbs sampling. There were 685,498 malaria cases during the study period. Plasmodium vivax was the predominant species (71.7%, 490,861). Malaria hotspots were located in eight municipalities along the Venezuela and Guyana international borders with Brazil. Plasmodium falciparum increased by 2.6% (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.1%, 2.8%) for one meter increase in altitude, decreased by 1.6% (95% CrI 1.5%, 2.3%) and 0.9% (95% CrI 0.7%, 2.4%) per 1 cm increase in 6-month lagged precipitation and each 1 °C increase of minimum temperature without lag. Each 1 °C increase of 1-month lagged maximum temperature increased P. falciparum by 0.6% (95% CrI 0.4%, 1.9%). P. vivax cases increased by 1.5% (95% CrI 1.3%, 1.6%) for one meter increase in altitude and decreased by  1.1% (95% CrI 1.0%, 1.2%) and 7.3% (95% CrI 6.7%, 9.7%) for each 1 cm increase of precipitation lagged at 6-months and 1 °C increase in minimum temperature lagged at 6-months. Each 1°C increase of two-month lagged maximum temperature increased P. vivax by 1.5% (95% CrI 0.6%, 7.1%). There was no significant residual spatial clustering after accounting for climatic covariates. Malaria hotspots were located along the Venezuela and Guyana international border with Roraima state, Brazil. In addition to population movement, climatic variables were important drivers of malaria transmission in these areas.

Relationship between temperature and Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes' susceptibility to pyrethroids and expression of metabolic enzymes

Background

Malaria remains one of the most devastating diseases globally, and the control of mosquitoes as the vector is mainly dependent on chemical insecticides. Elevated temperatures associated with future warmer climates could affect mosquitoes' metabolic enzyme expression and increase insecticide resistance, making vector control difficult. Understanding how mosquito rearing temperatures influence their susceptibility to insecticide and expression of metabolic enzymes could aid in the development of novel tools and strategies to control mosquitoes in a future warmer climate. This study evaluated the effects of temperature on the susceptibility of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes to pyrethroids and their expression of metabolic enzymes.

Methods

Anopheles gambiae s.l. eggs obtained from laboratory-established colonies were reared under eight temperature regimes (25, 28, 30, 32, 34, 36, 38, and 40 °C). Upon adult emergence, 3- to 5-day-old female non-blood-fed mosquitoes were used for susceptibility tests following the World Health Organization (WHO) bioassay protocol. Batches of 20–25 mosquitoes from each temperature regime (25–34 °C) were exposed to two pyrethroid insecticides (0.75% permethrin and 0.05% deltamethrin). In addition, the levels of four metabolic enzymes (α-esterase, β-esterase, glutathione S-transferase [GST], and mixed-function oxidase [MFO]) were examined in mosquitoes that were not exposed and those that were exposed to pyrethroids.

Results

Mortality in An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes exposed to deltamethrin and permethrin decreased at temperatures above 28 °C. In addition, mosquitoes reared at higher temperatures were more resistant and had more elevated enzyme levels than those raised at low temperatures. Overall, mosquitoes that survived after being exposed to pyrethroids had higher levels of metabolic enzymes than those that were not exposed to pyrethroids.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence that elevated temperatures decreased An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes' susceptibility to pyrethroids and increased the expression of metabolic enzymes. This evidence suggests that elevated temperatures projected in a future warmer climate could increase mosquitoes' resistance to insecticides and complicate malaria vector control measures. This study therefore provides vital information, and suggests useful areas of future research, on the effects of temperature variability on mosquitoes that could guide vector control measures in a future warmer climate.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-022-05273-z.

Malaria diagnostic methods with the elimination goal in view

Malaria control measures have been in use for years but have not completely curbed the spread of infection. Ultimately, global elimination is the goal. A major playmaker in the various approaches to reaching the goal is the issue of proper diagnosis. Various diagnostic techniques were adopted in different regions and geographical locations over the decades, and these have invariably produced diverse outcomes. In this review, we looked at the various approaches used in malaria diagnostics with a focus on methods favorably used during pre-elimination and elimination phases as well as in endemic regions. Microscopy, rapid diagnostic testing (RDT), loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are common methods applied depending on prevailing factors, each with its strengths and limitations. As the drive toward the elimination goal intensifies, the search for ideal, simple, fast, and reliable point-of-care diagnostic tools is needed more than ever before to be used in conjunction with a functional surveillance system supported by the ideal vaccine.

Solar geoengineering could redistribute malaria risk in developing countries

Solar geoengineering is often framed as a stopgap measure to decrease the magnitude, impacts, and injustice of climate change. However, the benefits or costs of geoengineering for human health are largely unknown. We project how geoengineering could impact malaria risk by comparing current transmission suitability and populations-at-risk under moderate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5) with and without geoengineering. We show that if geoengineering deployment cools the tropics, it could help protect high elevation populations in eastern Africa from malaria encroachment, but could increase transmission in lowland sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. Compared to extreme warming, we find that by 2070, geoengineering would nullify a projected reduction of nearly one billion people at risk of malaria. Our results indicate that geoengineering strategies designed to offset warming are not guaranteed to unilaterally improve health outcomes, and could produce regional trade-offs among Global South countries that are often excluded from geoengineering conversations.

Solar geoengineering, an emergency climate intervention, could shift one billion people back into areas of malaria risk. Regional tradeoffs and potential adverse outcomes point to the need for health sector planning with Global South leadership.

Changing transmission dynamics among migrant, indigenous and mining populations in a malaria hotspot in Northern Brazil: 2016 to 2020

Background

Roraima state is the northernmost state in Brazil and the primary border-crossing point between Brazil and Venezuela. The uncontrolled surge of malaria in Venezuela, coupled with mass migration of Venezuelans to neighbouring countries and the upward trend in informal mining in the state, pose a serious threat to the broader region, especially to migrant, indigenous and mining populations, jeopardizing malaria elimination efforts. This study describes changes in the epidemiological profile of malaria in Roraima state related to time, place and populations at risk from 2016 to 2020.

Methods

De-identified malaria surveillance data were obtained from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance System from 2016 to 2020. Pearson’s chi-square tested differences between imported and autochthonous cases. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for imported versus autochthonous cases by demographic characteristics.

Results

Odds of being an imported case were higher for Plasmodium falciparum cases (AOR = 2.08). However, as the number of cases from Venezuela decreased in 2020 following closure of the border, the proportion of P. falciparum cases increased markedly, from 6.24% in 2019 to 18.50% in 2020. Over the 5-year period, the odds of being an imported case among miners were about nine times higher than the general population (AOR = 8.99). The proportion of total malaria cases that were among indigenous people increased from 33.09% in 2016 to 54.83% in 2020. Indigenous children had a higher burden of malaria with over 40% of cases in children 0 to 9 years old, compared to 8% in non-indigenous children 0 to 9 years old. In some municipalities, place of infection differed from place of notification, with a large proportion of cases in these municipalities reporting in Boa Vista.

Conclusions

Malaria remains a serious threat in Roraima state, especially among high-risk populations, such as miners, migrants, and indigenous people. As malaria cases have increased among indigenous people and miners, and the proportion of P. falciparum cases has increased, elimination efforts require understanding of these risk factors to tailor interventions appropriately. Furthermore, cross-border surveillance systems need to be urgently strengthened at formal and unofficial border points, especially since the border with Venezuela reopened in July 2021.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-022-04141-6.

Cross-border malaria drivers and risk factors on the Brazil–Venezuela border between 2016 and 2018

Globally, cross-border importation of malaria has become a challenge to malaria elimination. The border areas between Brazil and Venezuela have experienced high numbers of imported cases due to increased population movement and migration out of Venezuela. This study aimed to identify risk factors for imported malaria and delineate imported malaria hotspots in Roraima, Brazil and Bolivar, Venezuela between 2016 and 2018. Data on malaria surveillance cases from Roraima, Brazil and Bolivar, Venezuela from 2016 to 2018 were obtained from national surveillance systems: the Brazilian Malaria Epidemiology Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Malaria), the Venezuelan Ministry of Health and other non-government organizations. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify the risk factors for imported malaria. Spatial autocorrelation in malaria incidence was explored using Getis-Ord (Gi*) statistics. During the study period, there were 11,270 (24.3%) and 4072 (0.7%) imported malaria cases in Roraima, Brazil and Bolivar, Venezuela, respectively. In the multivariable logistic regression for Roraima, men were 28% less likely to be an imported case compared to women (Adjusted Odds Ratio [AOR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.665, 0.781). Ages 20–29 and 30–39 were 90% (AOR = 1.90; 95% CI 1.649, 2.181) and 54% (AOR = 1.54; 95% CI 1.331, 1.782) more likely to be an imported case compared to the 0–9 year age group, respectively. Imported cases were 197 times (AOR = 197.03; 95% CI 175.094, 221.712) more likely to occur in miners than those working in agriculture and domestic work. In Bolivar, cases aged 10–19 (AOR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.389, 2.192), 20–29 (AOR = 2.48; 95% CI 1.957, 3.144), and 30–39 (AOR = 2.29; 95% CI 1.803, 2.913) were at higher risk of being an imported case than those in the 0–9 year old group, with older age groups having a slightly higher risk compared to Roraima. Compared to agriculture and domestic workers, tourism, timber and fishing workers (AOR = 6.38; 95% CI 4.393, 9.254) and miners (AOR = 7.03; 95% CI 4.903, 10.092) were between six and seven times more likely to be an imported case. Spatial analysis showed the risk was higher along the international border in the municipalities of Roraima, Brazil. To achieve malaria elimination, cross-border populations in the hotspot municipalities will need targeted intervention strategies tailored to occupation, age and mobility status. Furthermore, all stakeholders, including implementers, policymakers, and donors, should support and explore the introduction of novel approaches to address these hard-to-reach populations with the most cost-effective interventions.

Polymerase Chain Reaction-Based Malaria Diagnosis Can Be Increasingly Adopted during Current Phase of Malaria Elimination in India

Despite commendable progress in control of malaria in India and other countries, there are hidden reservoirs of parasites in human hosts that continually feed malaria transmission. Submicroscopic infections are a significant proportion in low-endemic settings like India, and these infections possess transmission potential. Hence, these reservoirs of infection add to the existing roadblocks for malaria elimination. It is crucial that this submerged burden of malaria is detected and treated to curtail further transmission. The currently used diagnostic tools, including the so-called "gold standard" microscopy, are incapable of detecting these submicroscopic infections and thus are suboptimal. It is an opportune time to usher in more sensitive molecular tools like polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for routine diagnosis at all levels of healthcare as an additional diagnostic tool in routine settings. PCR assays have been developed into user-friendly formats for field diagnostics and are near-point-of-collection. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic in India, these are being used rampantly across the country. The facilities created for COVID-19 diagnosis can easily be co-opted and harnessed for malaria diagnosis to augment surveillance by the inclusion of molecular techniques like PCR in the routine national malaria control program.

Reaching the malaria elimination goal in Brazil: a spatial analysis and time-series study

Background

Since 2015, the Global Technical Strategy (GTS) for Malaria 2016–2030 has been adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO) as a comprehensive framework to accelerate progress for malaria elimination in endemic countries. This strategy sets the target of reducing global malaria incidence and mortality rates by 90% in 2030. Here it is sought to evaluate Brazil’s achievements towards reaching the WHO GTS milestone in 2030. Considering the total number of new malaria cases in 2015, the main research question is: will Brazil reach the malaria elimination goal in 2030?

Methods

Analytical strategies were undertaken using the SIVEP-malaria official databases of the Brazilian Malaria Control Programme for the Brazilian Amazon region from 2009 to 2020. Spatial and time-series analyses were applied for identifying municipalities that support the highest numbers of malaria cases over the years. Forecast analysis was used for predicting the estimated number of new cases in Brazil in 2025–2050.

Results

Brazil has significantly reduced the number of new malaria cases in 2020 in comparison with 2015 in the states of Acre (− 56%), Amapá (− 75%), and Amazonas (− 21%); however, they increased in the states of Pará (156%), Rondônia (74%), and Roraima (362%). Forecast of the predicted number of new malaria cases in 2030 is 74,764 (95% CI: 41,116–141,160) in the Brazilian Amazon.

Conclusions

It is likely that Brazil will reduce the number of new malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon in 2030 in relation to that in 2015. Herein forecast shows a reduction by 46% (74,754 in 2030 forecast/137,982 in 2015), but this reduction is yet far from the proposed reduction under the WHO GTS 2030 milestone (90%). Stable and unbeatable transmission in the Juruá River Valley, Manaus, and Lábrea still support endemic malaria in the Brazilian Amazon. Today’s cross-border malaria is impacting the state of Roraima unprecedently. If this situation is maintained, the malaria elimination goal (zero cases) may not be reached before 2050. An enhanced political commitment is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs in the post-2030 milestones for malaria elimination.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40249-022-00945-5.