Feasibility of controlling hookworm infection through preventive chemotherapy: a simulation study using the individual-based WORMSIM modelling framework

Cost and budget impact of mass drug administration compared to expanded school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for soil-transmitted helminth control in Zamboanga Peninsula, the Philippines

Background

School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the primary strategy for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control, typically focusing on primary schoolchildren, was expanded to secondary school students in the Philippines in 2016. This program still excludes adults, who may also suffer from considerable morbidity and can be a significant reservoir of infection. Mass drug administration (MDA), where the entire population is treated, would bring additional health benefits but will also increase implementation costs. The incremental cost of implementing MDA for STH control compared to expanded school-based targeted PC, however, is unknown.

Methods

A cost survey was conducted in Zamboanga Peninsula region in 2021 to estimate the economic and financial cost of implementing MDA compared to the expanded school-based targeted PC from a government payer perspective. A budget impact analysis was conducted to estimate the financial cost to the government of implementing MDA over a five-year timeframe. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. Costs were reported in 2021 United States Dollars ($).

Findings

The economic cost of MDA was $809,000 per year (95% CI: $679,000-$950,000) or $0.22 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.19-$0.26), while the expanded school-based targeted PC would cost $625,000 (95% CI: $549,000-$706,000) or $0.57 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.50-$0.64). Over five years, the financial cost to the government for MDA would be $3,113,000 (95% CI: $2,475,000-$3,810,000); $740,000 (95% CI: $486,000-$1,019,000) higher than expanded school-based targeted PC.

Interpretation

Implementing MDA in the region will increase the economic and financial costs by 29% and 31%, respectively, when compared to expanded school-based targeted PC. Implementing MDA would require the Department of Health to increase their total expenditure for STH control by 0.2% and could be key in addressing the ongoing STH burden.

Funding

The project was funded by the Australian Centre for the Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NHMRC GA19028), and JPCDT was supported by a UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship. SVN is funded by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP 2018220).

Vaccine value profile for Hookworm

Hookworm, a parasitic infection, retains a considerable burden of disease, affecting the most underprivileged segments of the general population in endemic countries and remains one of the leading causes of mild to severe anemia in Low and Middle Income Countries (LMICs), particularly in pregnancy and children under 5. Despite repeated large scale Preventive Chemotherapy (PC) interventions since more than 3 decades, there is broad consensus among scholars that elimination targets set in the newly launched NTD roadmap will require additional tools and interventions. Development of a vaccine could constitute a promising expansion of the existing arsenal against hookworm. Therefore, we have evaluated the biological and implementation feasibility of the vaccine development as well as the added value of such a novel tool. Based on pipeline landscaping and the current knowledge on key biological aspects of the pathogen and its interactions with the host, we found biological feasibility of development of a hookworm vaccine to be moderate. Also, our analysis on manufacturing and regulatory issues as well as potential uptake yielded moderate implementation feasibility. Modelling studies suggest a that introduction of a vaccine in parallel with ongoing integrated interventions (PC, WASH, shoe campaigns), could substantially reduce burden of disease in a cost - saving mode. Finally a set of actions are recommended that might impact positively the likelihood of timely development and introduction of a hookworm vaccine.

A Comparison of Markov and Mechanistic Models for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Prevalence Projections in the Context of Survey Design

Globally, there are over 1 billion people infected with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs), mostly living in marginalized settings with inadequate sanitation in sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia. The World Health Organization recommends an integrated approach to STH morbidity control through improved access to sanitation and hygiene education and the delivery of preventive chemotherapy (PC) to school-age children delivered through schools. Progress of STH control programs is currently estimated using a baseline (pre-PC) school-based prevalence survey and then monitored using periodical school-based prevalence surveys, known as Impact Assessment Surveys (IAS). We investigated whether integrating geostatistical methods with a Markov model or a mechanistic transmission model for projecting prevalence forward in time from baseline can improve IAS design strategies. To do this, we applied these 2 methods to prevalence data collected in Kenya, before evaluating and comparing their performance in accurately informing optimal survey design for a range of IAS sampling designs. We found that, although both approaches performed well, the mechanistic method more accurately projected prevalence over time and provided more accurate information for guiding survey design. Both methods performed less well in areas with persistent STH hotspots where prevalence did not decrease despite multiple rounds of PC. Our findings show that these methods can be useful tools for more efficient and accurate targeting of PC. The general framework built in this paper can also be used for projecting prevalence and informing survey design for other neglected tropical diseases.

Effectiveness of ivermectin mass drug administration in the control of soil-transmitted helminth infections in endemic populations: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Current soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control guidelines endorse the use of albendazole or mebendazole for school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), yet their reduced efficacy against Strongyloides stercoralis and Trichuris trichiura presents significant limitations. Emerging evidence indicates that community-wide PC [or mass drug administration (MDA)] using ivermectin, commonly used in other neglected tropical disease (NTD) control programs, may play an important role in controlling these parasites. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of ivermectin PC in reducing STH prevalence in endemic populations.

METHODS

We searched Pubmed, EMBASE, and Web of Science on February 14, 2023, for studies that investigated the effectiveness of ivermectin PC, either alone or in combination with other anthelmintic drugs, on STH infections, and provided a measure of STH prevalence before and after PC. We calculated pooled prevalence reductions for each STH using random-effects meta-analyses. Our protocol is available on PROSPERO (registration number CRD42023401219).

RESULTS

A total of 21 were eligible for the systematic review, of which 15 were eligible for meta-analysis. All studies delivered ivermectin through MDA. The pooled prevalence reduction of S. stercoralis following MDA with ivermectin alone was 84.49% (95% CI 54.96-94.66) across five studies and 81.37% (95% CI 61.62-90.96) across seven studies with or without albendazole. The prevalence reduction of T. trichiura was 49.93% (95% CI 18.23-69.34) across five studies with ivermectin alone, and 89.40% (95% CI 73.66-95.73) across three studies with the addition of albendazole. There was high heterogeneity for all syntheses (I2 > 65%).

CONCLUSIONS

This study underscores the key role of ivermectin-based MDA in addressing limitations in current global STH guidelines in terms of limited efficacy against S. stercoralis and T. trichiura. Based on these findings, revising international STH guidelines to include ivermectin is a promising option to progress the control and eventual elimination of STHs and other NTDs.

Predicting the risk and speed of drug resistance emerging in soil-transmitted helminths during preventive chemotherapy

Control of soil-transmitted helminths relies heavily on regular large-scale deworming of high-risk groups (e.g., children) with benzimidazole derivatives. Although drug resistance has not yet been documented in human soil-transmitted helminths, regular deworming of cattle and sheep has led to widespread benzimidazole resistance in veterinary helminths. Here we predict the population dynamics of human soil-transmitted helminth infections and drug resistance during 20 years of regular preventive chemotherapy, using an individual-based model. With the current preventive chemotherapy strategy of mainly targeting children in schools, drug resistance may evolve in soil-transmitted helminths within a decade. More intense preventive chemotherapy strategies increase the prospects of soil-transmitted helminths elimination, but also increase the speed at which drug efficacy declines, especially when implementing community-based preventive chemotherapy (population-wide deworming). If during the last decade, preventive chemotherapy against soil-transmitted helminths has led to resistance, we may not have detected it as drug efficacy has not been structurally monitored, or incorrectly so. These findings highlight the need to develop and implement strategies to monitor and mitigate the evolution of benzimidazole resistance.

Community-wide versus school-based targeted deworming for soil-transmitted helminth control in school-aged children in Vietnam: the CoDe-STH cluster-randomised controlled trial

Background

Soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infection control programs typically consist of school-based preventive chemotherapy (PC) targeted to school-aged children. STH reservoirs in untreated community members contribute to ongoing transmission in children. The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial, conducted in Dak Lak province, Vietnam, between October 2019 and November 2020, aimed to determine whether community-wide mass drug administration (MDA) is more effective than school-based targeted PC in reducing STH prevalence and intensity in children.

Methods

In this two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial, 64 primary schools were randomly assigned 1:1 to receive either school-based targeted PC ("school arm") or community-wide MDA ("community arm"). A single dose of albendazole 400 mg was used for deworming. The primary outcome was hookworm prevalence in schoolchildren, measured using quantitative real-time PCR. We also measured infection intensity for Necator americanus only, using qPCR cycle threshold (Ct) values converted into eggs per gram of faeces (EPG). Analysis was by intention to treat. The trial was registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12619000309189).

Findings

The analysis included 4955 children in the school arm and 5093 children in the community arm. N. americanus was the dominant STH species. The relative reduction in hookworm prevalence was not significantly different between the school arm (30.1%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 20.5-36.9) and the community arm (34.6%, 95% CI 19.9-49.4). Due to lower baseline prevalence than expected, the study was underpowered to detect a difference in prevalence reduction between the study arms. The community arm showed significantly greater relative reduction in N. americanus infection intensity (56.0%, 95% CI 39.9-72.1) compared to the school arm (3.4%, 95% CI -24.7 to 31.4). The community arm also showed greater relative reduction in prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity (≥2000 EPG) N. americanus infections (81.1%; 95% CI 69.7-92.6) compared to the school arm (39.0%, 95% CI 13.7-64.2).

Interpretation

Although no impact was seen on overall prevalence, community-wide MDA was more effective in lowering N. americanus infection intensity in schoolchildren compared to school-based targeted PC, measured 12 months after one round of albendazole deworming with high coverage.

Funding

National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia (APP1139561).

Cost and cost-effectiveness analysis of mass drug administration compared to school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for hookworm control in Dak Lak province, Vietnam

Background

School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the main strategy for soil-transmitted helminths (STH) control, excludes other at-risk populations including adults and preschool children. Mass drug administration (MDA), covering all age groups, would bring additional health benefits but also requires greater investment. This cost survey and cost-effectiveness analysis compared MDA with school-based targeted PC for STH control in Dak Lak, Vietnam, where STH are endemic.

Methods

A cost survey was conducted in 2020 to estimate the total and per person economic and financial cost of each strategy. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. The primary effectiveness measure was hookworm-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and secondary measures were hookworm infection-years averted and moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years averted. A Markov model was used to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of MDA compared to school-based targeted PC using a government payer perspective and a ten-year time horizon. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were performed. Costs are reported in 2020 USD ($).

Findings

The economic cost per person was $0.27 for MDA and $0.43 for school-based targeted PC. MDA in Dak Lak will cost $472,000 per year, while school-based targeted PC will cost $117,000. Over 10 years, MDA is estimated to avert an additional 121,465 DALYs; 4,019,262 hookworm infection-years, and 765,844 moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years compared to school-based targeted PC. The ICER was $28.55 per DALY averted; $0.87 per hookworm infection-years averted, and $4.54 per moderate-to-heavy intensity hookworm infection-years averted. MDA was cost-effective in all PSA iterations.

Interpretation

In areas where hookworm predominates and adults suffer a significant burden of infection, MDA is cost effective compared to school based targeted PC and is the best strategy to achieve global targets.

Funding

The project was funded by the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) of Australia (Project Grant APP1139561) and JPCDT was supported by a UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship.

How correlations between treatment access and surveillance inclusion impact neglected tropical disease monitoring and evaluation-A simulated study

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) largely impact marginalised communities living in tropical and subtropical regions. Mass drug administration is the leading intervention method for five NTDs; however, it is known that there is lack of access to treatment for some populations and demographic groups. It is also likely that those individuals without access to treatment are excluded from surveillance. It is important to consider the impacts of this on the overall success, and monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of intervention programmes. We use a detailed individual-based model of the infection dynamics of lymphatic filariasis to investigate the impact of excluded, untreated, and therefore unobserved groups on the true versus observed infection dynamics and subsequent intervention success. We simulate surveillance in four groups-the whole population eligible to receive treatment, the whole eligible population with access to treatment, the TAS focus of six- and seven-year-olds, and finally in >20-year-olds. We show that the surveillance group under observation has a significant impact on perceived dynamics. Exclusion to treatment and surveillance negatively impacts the probability of reaching public health goals, though in populations that do reach these goals there are no signals to indicate excluded groups. Increasingly restricted surveillance groups over-estimate the efficacy of MDA. The presence of non-treated groups cannot be inferred when surveillance is only occurring in the group receiving treatment.

Modeling the effectiveness of One Health interventions against the zoonotic hookworm Ancylostoma ceylanicum

Hookworm disease is a major global public health concern, annually affecting 500-700 million of the world's poorest people. The World Health Organization is targeting the elimination of hookworm as a public health problem by 2030 using a strategy of mass drug administration (MDA) to at-risk human populations. However, in Southeast Asia and the Pacific the zoonotic hookworm species, Ancylostoma ceylanicum, is endemic in dogs and commonly infects people. This presents a potential impediment to the effectiveness of MDA that targets only humans. Here, we develop a novel multi-host (dog and human) transmission model of A. ceylanicum and compare the effectiveness of human-only and "One Health" (human plus dog) MDA strategies under a range of eco-epidemiological assumptions. We show that One Health interventions-targeting both dogs and humans-could suppress prevalence in humans to ≤ 1% by the end of 2030, even with only modest coverage (25-50%) of the animal reservoir. With increasing coverage, One Health interventions may even interrupt transmission. We discuss key unresolved questions on the eco-epidemiology of A. ceylanicum, the challenges of delivering MDA to animal reservoirs, and the growing importance of One Health interventions to human public health.

Challenges of using modelling evidence in the visceral leishmaniasis elimination programme in India

As India comes closer to the elimination of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) as a public health problem, surveillance efforts and elimination targets must be continuously revised and strengthened. Mathematical modelling is a compelling research discipline for informing policy and programme design in its capacity to project incidence across space and time, the likelihood of achieving benchmarks, and the impact of different interventions. To gauge the extent to which modelling informs policy in India, this qualitative analysis explores how and whether policy makers understand, value, and reference recently produced VL modelling research. Sixteen semi-structured interviews were carried out with both users- and producers- of VL modelling research, guided by a knowledge utilisation framework grounded in knowledge translation theory. Participants reported that barriers to knowledge utilisation include 1) scepticism that models accurately reflect transmission dynamics, 2) failure of modellers to apply their analyses to specific programme operations, and 3) lack of accountability in the process of translating knowledge to policy. Political trust and support are needed to translate knowledge into programme activities, and employment of a communication intermediary may be a necessary approach to improve this process.

Evaluating and mitigating the potential indirect effect of COVID-19 on control programmes for seven neglected tropical diseases: a modelling study

Background

In line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect.

Methods

For seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets.

Findings

We show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2–3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding.

Interpretation

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Appropriateness of the current parasitological control target for hookworm morbidity: A statistical analysis of individual-level data

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminths affect almost 2 billion people globally. Hookworm species contribute to most of the related morbidity. Hookworms mainly cause anaemia, due to blood loss at the site of the attachment of the adult worms to the human intestinal mucosa. The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to eliminate hookworm morbidity by 2030 through achieving a prevalence of moderate and heavy intensity (M&HI) infections below 2%. In this paper, we aim to assess the suitability of this threshold to reflect hookworm-attributable morbidity.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed a hierarchical statistical model to simulate individual haemoglobin concentrations in association with hookworm burdens, accounting for low haemoglobin values attributable to other causes. The model was fitted to individual-level data within a Bayesian framework. Then, we generated different endemicity settings corresponding to infection prevalence ranging from 10% to 90% (0% to 55% M&HI prevalence), using 1, 2 or 4 Kato-Katz slides. For each scenario, we estimated the prevalence of anaemia due to hookworm. Our results showed that on average, haemoglobin falls below the WHO threshold for anaemia when intensities are above 2000 eggs per gram of faeces. For the different simulated scenarios, the estimated prevalence of anaemia attributable to hookworm ranges from 0% to 30% (95%-PI: 24% - 36%) being mainly associated to the prevalence of M&HI infections. Simulations show that a 2% prevalence of M&HI infections in adults corresponds to a prevalence of hookworm-attributable anaemia lower than 1%.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Our results support the use of the current WHO thresholds of 2% prevalence of M&HI as a proxy for hookworm morbidity. A single Kato-Katz slide may be sufficient to assess the achievement of the morbidity target. Further studies are needed to elucidate haemoglobin dynamics pre- and post- control, ideally using longitudinal data in adults and children.

Prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis before and after preventive chemotherapy initiation in the Philippines: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective

To estimate the impact of preventive chemotherapy on the prevalence and intensity of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis in the Philippines, using systematic review and meta-analysis.

Methods

We included reports reporting prevalence of STH infections, schistosomiasis, or lymphatic filariasis in the Philippines published until 31 March 2021. Peer-reviewed studies were identified in electronic databases. Grey literature reports by the University of the Philippines and the Department of Health were also included. Pooled infection prevalence, before and after the initiation of preventive chemotherapy, stratified by age group, was calculated using the inverse variance heterogeneity model.

Findings

A total of 109 reports were included in the review and meta-analysis. Overall prevalence of moderate-heavy intensity Ascaris lumbricoides (6.6%) and Trichuris trichiura (2.7%) infection after initiation of preventive chemotherapy were significantly lower than the prevalence prior to initiation (23.6% for A. lumbricoides and 12.2% for T. trichiura). Prevalence reductions were also found in school and preschool-age children for A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura. Studies conducted after preventive chemotherapy initiation had significantly lower overall prevalence of moderate-heavy intensity schistosomiasis (3.1% vs 0.2%) and of schistosomiasis in school-age children (30.5% vs 1%). Pooled prevalence of lymphatic filariasis prior to preventive chemotherapy initiation was 3.2% across 12 provinces, while currently only two provinces still have prevalence of more than 1%. There were no published studies reporting prevalence of lymphatic filariasis after initiation of preventive chemotherapy. Heterogeneity was high with I² mostly above 90%.

Conclusion

The burden of STH infections and schistosomiasis in children were significantly lower in studies conducted following the initiation of preventive chemotherapy. Eliminating morbidity and interrupting transmission, however, may require expanded control initiatives including community-wide treatment, and improved water, sanitation, and hygiene. Lymphatic filariasis burden has decreased since the implementation of preventive chemotherapy, with all but two provinces having reached the elimination of lymphatic filariasis as a public health problem.

Mass treatment with anti-parasitic medications is a key control and elimination strategy for several helminth infections, namely intestinal worm infections, schistosomiasis, and lymphatic filariasis, which are common in the Philippines and other endemic countries. To gain insight into the impact of such a strategy that has been in place for more than 14 years, we used systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the prevalence of each of these helminth infections in the Philippines before and after the initiation of mass treatment. The review included 109 reports, composed of peer-reviewed studies and grey literature. The pooled overall prevalence of heavy intensity and the prevalence in children of intestinal worm infection and schistosomiasis were significantly lower in studies conducted after initiation of mass treatment. The studies included are highly heterogenous reflecting variability in sampling procedures, diagnostic tests, study sites, and years of data collection. Eliminating morbidity and interrupting transmission may require expanded control initiatives including community-wide treatment, and improved water, sanitation, and hygiene. The same significantly lower prevalence after initiation of mass treatment was observed for lymphatic filariasis where only two out of the initial 12 endemic provinces still require mass treatment due to prevalence above 1%.

Risk profiling and efficacy of albendazole against the hookworms Necator americanus and Ancylostoma ceylanicum in Cambodia to support control programs in Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific

Background: Hookworm disease is endemic throughout many parts of the Asia Pacific, despite targeted control programs of at-risk populations. The success of these programs has been hindered by the limited efficacy of widely-used mebendazole, rapid re-infection rates linked to persistent reservoirs of untreated people and dogs, and the low sensitivity of conventional coprodiagnostic techniques employed. Methods: Here, we used standard faecal flotation (SFF) and a multiplex qPCR (mqPCR) assay to calculate and compare species-specific cure and egg reduction rates of single dose albendazole (400 mg) against hookworm infections at community level. Data from a cross-sectional survey in 1,232 people from Cambodia were used to inform a generalised linear mixed model to identify risk factors linked to hookworm infection(s) at baseline. Furthermore, we calculated risk factors associated to the probability of being cured after albendazole administration. Findings: Overall, 13·5% of all 1,232 people tested by SFF were positive for hookworm infection(s). Most (80·1%) infected people were >12 years of age, hence above the age targeted by the WHO control program. We estimate that as age increases, the odds of being infected increases at a faster rate for females than for males. We revealed a substantial difference in cure rate of hookworm infection(s) following albendazole treatment using the SFF (81·5%) and mqPCR (46·4%) assays, and provide the first data on the efficacy of this drug against the zoonotic hookworm Ancylostoma ceylanicum. We estimated that as age increases by one year, the odds of being cured decreases by 0·4%-3·7%. Similarly, the odds of being cured for people who boiled drinking water was estimated to be between 1·02 and 6·82. Interpretation: These findings show that the adoption of refined diagnostic techniques is central to monitoring hookworm infection(s) and the success of control strategies, which can ultimately aid in reducing associated morbidity in human populations. The approach taken is likely to be directly applicable to other parts of Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific, where specific epidemiological conditions might hamper the success of targeted treatment programs. Funding: Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences Strategic Research Funds, The University of Melbourne.

High burden of soil-transmitted helminth infections, schistosomiasis, undernutrition, and poor sanitation in two Typhoon Haiyan-stricken provinces in Eastern Philippines

This study aimed to describe: 1) soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and schistosomiasis prevalence and intensity in preschool-age children (PSAC) and school-age children (SAC), 2) schistosomiasis seroprevalence in SAC, 3) undernutrition prevalence in SAC, 4) sanitary toilet coverage in households, and 5) association between STH, Schistosoma japonicum exposure, nutritional status, and sanitation. PSAC and SAC in two Haiyan-stricken provinces were examined using Kato-Katz technique and ELISA Antibody test. Anthropometric and hemoglobin measurements were also obtained. The reported sanitary toilet coverage was validated in a survey. The prevalence of any STH in PSAC and SAC was 50.2% and 41.3%, respectively. Moderate-heavy intensity (MHI) STH prevalence in PSAC and SAC was 20.8% and 5.9%, respectively. The prevalence of any STH, MHI STH, ascariasis, MHI ascariasis, and MHI trichuriasis was significantly higher in PSAC. Stunting, underweight, wasting, overweight/obesity, and anemia prevalence was 38.4%, 24.5%, 4.8%, 2.7%, and 34.7% in PSAC, while the prevalence was 34.3%, 21.6%, 8.7%, 3.0%, and 19.2% in SAC, respectively. Anemia and wasting prevalence were significantly higher in PSAC and SAC, respectively. There were five schistosomiasis cases found (0.8% prevalence), while schistosomiasis seroprevalence was 60.1%. Validated and reported sanitary toilet coverage was significantly different in eight out of 13 barangays. Stunting and anemia were associated with STH. STH and anemia prevalence were significantly higher in non-ZOD barangays. High STH burden in PSAC and SAC persists. A more coordinated response addressing STH, undernutrition, and WASH in disaster-stricken areas will require strengthening local health systems and promoting intersectoral collaboration.

Impact of Key Assumptions About the Population Biology of Soil-Transmitted Helminths on the Sustainable Control of Morbidity

The design and evaluation of control programs for soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) is based on surveillance data recording measurements of egg counts in the stool of infected individuals, which underpin estimates of the prevalence and average intensity of infection. There is considerable uncertainty around these measurements and their interpretation. The uncertainty is composed of several sources of measurement error and the limit of detection of fecal smear tests on the one hand, and key assumptions on STH biology on the other hand, including assumptions on the aggregation of worms within hosts and on the impact of density-dependent influences on worm reproduction. Using 2 independently developed models of STH transmission we show how different aspects of STH biology and human behavior impact on STH surveillance and control programs and how accounting for uncertainty can help to develop optimal and sustainable control strategies to meet the World Health Organization (WHO) morbidity target for STHs.

Deworming women of reproductive age during adolescence and pregnancy: what is the impact on morbidity from soil-transmitted helminths infection?

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a major cause of poor health in low- and middle-income countries. In particular, hookworm is known to cause anaemia in children and women of reproductive age (WRA). One goal of the World Health Organization's (WHO) 2030 roadmap for neglected tropical diseases is to reduce STH-related morbidity in WRA. As a minimal intervention, the WHO recommends deworming adolescent girls annually during human papilloma virus vaccination programmes and WRA during pregnancy and lactation. These routine interventions are low cost and can be implemented even by the most basic health services in endemic countries. In this study we use a cohort model to investigate the potential impact on STH-related morbidity in WRA.

RESULTS

Annual deworming treatment of adolescent girls reduces the prevalence of moderate- and heavy-intensity infections in this age group by up to 60% in moderate transmission settings and by 12-27% in high transmission settings. Treatment of WRA during pregnancy and lactation on its own has a small (< 20%) but significant effect on morbidity although it does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target (< 2% moderate- to high-intensity infections) in this age group. However, depending on the age-intensity profile of infection, which may vary geographically, and assumptions on the density-dependence of egg production by fertilised female worms, continued school-based treatment may be able to reduce the force of infection acting on WRA, both through an indirect effect on the overall population-based force of infection and via reducing the burden of infection as children age and move into the WRA age classes. As a result, morbidity in WRA may be eliminated.

CONCLUSION

While deworming during pregnancy and lactation does not lead to the achievement of the morbidity target in WRA and its efficacy may vary by setting, it is still expected to be beneficial for maternity and child health. Monitoring of any WRA-based intervention is recommended to evaluate its effectiveness.

Modelling the impact of COVID-19-related control programme interruptions on progress towards the WHO 2030 target for soil-transmitted helminths

Background

On 1 April 2020, the WHO recommended an interruption of all activities for the control of neglected tropical diseases, including soil-transmitted helminths (STH), in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper investigates the impact of this disruption on the progress towards the WHO 2030 target for STH.

Methods

We used two stochastic individual-based models to simulate the impact of missing one or more preventive chemotherapy (PC) rounds in different endemicity settings. We also investigated the extent to which this impact can be lessened by mitigation strategies, such as semiannual or community-wide PC.

Results

Both models show that without a mitigation strategy, control programmes will catch up by 2030, assuming that coverage is maintained. The catch-up time can be up to 4.5 y after the start of the interruption. Mitigation strategies may reduce this time by up to 2 y and increase the probability of achieving the 2030 target.

Conclusions

Although a PC interruption will only temporarily impact the progress towards the WHO 2030 target, programmes are encouraged to restart as soon as possible to minimise the impact on morbidity. The implementation of suitable mitigation strategies can turn the interruption into an opportunity to accelerate progress towards reaching the target.

Impact of Different Sampling Schemes for Decision Making in Soil-Transmitted Helminthiasis Control Programs

Starting and stopping preventive chemotherapy (PC) for soil-transmitted helminthiasis is typically based on the prevalence of infection as measured by Kato-Katz (KK) fecal smears. Kato-Katz-based egg counts can vary highly over repeated stool samples and smears. Consequentially, the sensitivity of KK-based surveys depends on the number of stool samples per person and the number of smears per sample. Given finite resources, collecting multiple samples and/or smears means screening fewer individuals, thereby lowering the statistical precision of prevalence estimates. Using population-level data from various epidemiological settings, we assessed the performance of different sampling schemes executed within the confines of the same budget. We recommend the use of single-slide KK for determining prevalence of moderate-to-heavy intensity infection and policy decisions for starting and continuing PC; more sensitive sampling schemes may be required for policy decisions involving stopping PC. Our findings highlight that guidelines should include specific guidance on sampling schemes.

Individual adherence to mass drug administration in neglected tropical disease control: A probability model conditional on past behaviour

We present a general framework which describes the systematic (binary) scenario of individuals either taking treatment or not for any reason, over the course of mass drug administration (MDA)-which we refer to as 'adherence' and 'non-adherence'. The probability models developed can be informed by observed adherence behaviour as well as employed to explore how different patterns influence the impact of MDA programmes, by the use of mathematical models of transmission and control. We demonstrate the interpretative value of the developed probability model employing a dataset collected in the TUMIKIA project, a randomised trial of deworming strategies to control soil-transmitted helminths (STH) by MDA conducted in coastal Kenya. We stratify our analysis by age and sex, although the framework which we introduce here may be readily adapted to accommodate other stratifications. Our findings include the detection of specific patterns of non-adherence in all age groups to varying extents. This is particularly apparent in men of ages 30+. We then demonstrate the use of the probability model in stochastic individual-based simulations by running two example forecasts for the elimination of STH transmission employing MDA within the TUMIKIA trial setting with different adherence patterns. This suggested a substantial reduction in the probability of elimination (between 23-43%) when comparing observed adherence patterns with an assumption of independence, with important implications for programmes. The results here demonstrate the considerable impact and utility of considering non-adherence on the success of MDA programmes to control neglected tropical diseases (NTDs).

Patterns of individual non-treatment during multiple rounds of mass drug administration for control of soil-transmitted helminths in the TUMIKIA trial, Kenya: a secondary longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

Few studies have been done of patterns of treatment during mass drug administration (MDA) to control neglected tropical diseases. We used routinely collected individual-level treatment records that had been collated for the Tuangamize Minyoo Kenya Imarisha Afya (Swahili for Eradicate Worms in Kenya for Better Health [TUMIKIA]) trial, done in coastal Kenya from 2015 to 2017. In this analysis we estimate the extent of and factors associated with the same individuals not being treated over multiple rounds of MDA, which we term systematic non-treatment.

METHODS

We linked the baseline population of the TUMIKIA trial randomly assigned to receive biannual community-wide MDA for soil-transmitted helminthiasis to longitudinal records on receipt of treatment in any of the four treatment rounds of the study. We fitted logistic regression models to estimate the association of non-treatment in a given round with non-treatment in the previous round, controlling for identified predictors of non-treatment. We also used multinomial logistic regression to identify factors associated with part or no treatment versus complete treatment.

FINDINGS

36 327 participants were included in our analysis: 16 236 children aged 2-14 years and 20 091 adults aged 15 years or older. The odds of having no treatment recorded was higher if a participant was not treated during the previous round of MDA (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3·60, 95% CI 3·08-4·20 for children and 5·58, 5·01-6·21 for adults). For children, school attendance and rural residence reduced the odds of receiving part or no treatment, whereas odds were increased by least poor socioeconomic status and living in an urban or periurban household. Women had higher odds than men of receiving part or no treatment. However, when those with pregnancy or childbirth in the previous 2 weeks were excluded, women became more likely to receive complete treatment. Adults aged 20-25 years were the age group with the highest odds of receiving part (OR 1·41, 95% CI 1·22-1·63) or no treatment (OR 1·81, 95% CI 1·53-2·14).

INTERPRETATION

Non-treatment was associated with specific sociodemographic groups and characteristics and did not occcur at random. This finding has important implications for MDA programme effectiveness, the relevance of which will intensify as disease prevalence decreases and infections become increasingly clustered.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Joint Global Health Trials Scheme of the Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, Children's Investment Fund Foundation, and London Centre for Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Genotypic profile of benzimidazole resistance associated with SNP F167Y in the beta-tubulin gene of Necator americanus helminths obtained from Brazilian populations

Necator americanus is a worm that parasites the small intestine of humans and is highly prevalent in regions with poor sanitary conditions. The main strategy to control this helminth is by mass benzimidazole administration, however, periodic use of these drugs can select strains of parasites resistant to treatment. Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the beta-tubulin isotype 1 gene located at codons 167, 198 and 200 have been associated with benzimidazole resistance in some nematodes. Previously, our group detected the presence of some of these SNPs in populations of soil-transmitted helminths collected in different locations in Brazil. Here, we evaluated the SNP at codon 167, which has recently been shown to be associated with failure of benzimidazoles to treat N. americanus. Our ARMS-PCR analyses were performed using 524 single N. americanus eggs from 48 patients' feces collected in six Brazilian states; however, we did not detect any mutated samples at codon 167. This study builds on previous work, helping us monitor the presence of resistance-related genotypes in Brazilian helminth populations. The data presented here can assist in the implementation of future control strategies.

Efficacy of Anthelminthic Drugs and Drug Combinations Against Soil-transmitted Helminths: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis

Background

Periodic mass distribution of benzimidazole anthelminthic drugs is the key strategy to control soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) globally. However, benzimidazoles have low efficacy against Trichuris trichiura, and there are concerns about benzimidazole resistance potentially emerging in humans. Therefore, identifying alternative drug regimens is a pressing priority. We present a systematic review and network meta-analysis comparing the efficacy of 21 different anthelminthic drug regimens, including standard, novel, and combination treatments.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases and identified studies comparing anthelminthic treatments to each other or placebo. The outcomes calculated were relative risk (RR) of cure and difference in egg reduction rates (dERR). We used an automated generalized pairwise modeling framework to generate mixed treatment effects against a common comparator, the current standard treatment (single-dose albendazole).

Results

Our search identified 4876 studies, of which 114 were included in the meta-analysis. Results identified several drug combinations with higher efficacy than single-dose albendazole for T. trichiura, including albendazole-ivermectin (RR of cure, 3.22 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.84-5.63]; dERR, 0.97 [95% CI, .21-1.74]), albendazole-oxantel pamoate (RR, 5.07 [95% CI, 1.65-15.59]; dERR, 0.51 [95% CI, .50-.52]), mebendazole-ivermectin (RR, 3.37 [95% CI, 2.20-5.16]), and tribendimidine-oxantel pamoate (RR, 4.06 [95% CI, 1.30-12.64]).

Conclusions

There are several promising drug combinations that may enhance the impact of STH control programs on T. trichiura, without compromising efficacy against Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm. We suggest further, large-scale trials of these drug combinations and consideration of their use in STH control programs where T. trichiura is present.

International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews Registration

CRD42016050739.

Zoonotic transmission of intestinal helminths in southeast Asia: Implications for control and elimination

Intestinal helminths are extremely widespread and highly prevalent infections of humans, particularly in rural and poor urban areas of low and middle-income countries. These parasites have chronic and often insidious effects on human health and child development including abdominal problems, anaemia, stunting and wasting. Certain animals play a fundamental role in the transmission of many intestinal helminths to humans. However, the contribution of zoonotic transmission to the overall burden of human intestinal helminth infection and the relative importance of different animal reservoirs remains incomplete. Moreover, control programmes and transmission models for intestinal helminths often do not consider the role of zoonotic reservoirs of infection. Such reservoirs will become increasingly important as control is scaled up and there is a move towards interruption and even elimination of parasite transmission. With a focus on southeast Asia, and the Philippines in particular, this review summarises the major zoonotic intestinal helminths, risk factors for infection and highlights knowledge gaps related to their epidemiology and transmission. Various methodologies are discussed, including parasite genomics, mathematical modelling and socio-economic analysis, that could be employed to improve understanding of intestinal helminth spread, reservoir attribution and the burden associated with infection, as well as assess effectiveness of interventions. For sustainable control and ultimately elimination of intestinal helminths, there is a need to move beyond scheduled mass deworming and to consider animal and environmental reservoirs. A One Health approach to control of intestinal helminths is proposed, integrating interventions targeting humans, animals and the environment, including improved access to water, hygiene and sanitation. This will require coordination and collaboration across different sectors to achieve best health outcomes for all.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm ( Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

Prediction of hookworm prevalence in southern India using environmental parameters derived from Landsat 8 remotely sensed data

Soil-transmitted helminth infections propagate poverty and slow economic growth in low-income countries. As with many other neglected tropical diseases, environmental conditions are important determinants of soil-transmitted helminth transmission. Hence, remotely sensed data are commonly utilised in spatial risk models intended to inform control strategies. In the present study, we build upon the existing modelling approaches by utilising fine spatial resolution Landsat 8 remotely sensed data in combination with topographic variables to predict hookworm prevalence in a hilly tribal area in southern India. Hookworm prevalence data collected from two field surveys were used in a random forest model to investigate the predictive capacity of 15 environmental variables derived from two remotely sensed images acquired during dry and rainy seasons. A variable buffer radius (100-1000 m) was applied to the point-prevalence locations in order to integrate environmental conditions around the village centroids into the modelling approach and understand where transmission is more likely. Elevation and slope were the most important variables in the models, with lower elevation and higher slope correlating with higher transmission risk. A modified normalised difference water index was among other recurring important variables, likely responsible for some seasonal differences in model performance. The 300 m buffer distance produced the best model performance in this setting, with another spike at 700 m, and a marked drop-off in R² values at 1000 m. In addition to assessing a large number of environmental correlates with hookworm transmission, the study contributes to the development of standardised methods of spatial linkage of continuous environmental data with point-based disease prevalence measures for the purpose of spatially explicit risk profiling.

Investigating the Effectiveness of Current and Modified World Health Organization Guidelines for the Control of Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infections

Background

Considerable efforts have been made to better understand the effectiveness of large-scale preventive chemotherapy therapy for the control of morbidity caused by infection with soil-transmitted helminths (STHs): Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura, and the 2 hookworm species, Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale. Current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines for STH control include mass drug administration (MDA) programs based on prevalence measurements, aiming at reducing morbidity in pre–school-aged children (pre-SAC) and school-aged children (SAC) by lowering the prevalence of moderate- to heavy-intensity infections to <1%.

Methods

We project the likely impact of following the current WHO guidelines and assess whether the WHO morbidity goals will be achieved across a range of transmission settings. We also investigate modifications that could be made to the current WHO treatment guidelines, and project their potential impacts in achieving morbidity and transmission control.

Results

While the standard guidelines are sufficient at low transmission levels, community-wide treatment (ie, involving pre-SAC, SAC, and adults) is essential if WHO morbidity goals are to be met in moderate- to high-transmission settings. Moreover, removing the recommendation of decreasing the treatment frequency at midline (5–6 years after the start of MDA) further improves the likelihood of achieving morbidity control in SAC.

Conclusions

We meld analyses based on 2 mathematical models of parasite transmission and control by MDA for the dominant STH species, to generate a unified treatment approach applicable across all settings, regardless of which STH infection is most common. We recommend clearly defined changes to the current WHO guidelines.

Preventive chemotherapy and anthelmintic resistance of soil-transmitted helminths - Can we learn nothing from veterinary medicine?

Current parasite control programs in veterinary species have moved away from mass anthelmintic treatment approaches due to the emergence of significant anthelmintic resistance (AR), and the availability of few classes of anthelmintics. A number of parallels between livestock and human helminths exist that warn of the risk of AR in human soil-transmitted helminthiases, yet current public health interventions continue to prioritize mass treatment strategies, a known risk factor for AR. This review discusses the existing parallels between human and animal helminth biology and management, along with current public health recommendations and strategies for helminth control in humans. The effectiveness of current recommendations and alternative management strategies are considered.

Insights from quantitative analysis and mathematical modelling on the proposed WHO 2030 goals for soil-transmitted helminths

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) are a group of parasitic worms that infect humans, causing a wide spectrum of disease, notably anaemia, growth retardation, and delayed cognitive development. The three main STHs are Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). Approximately 1.5 billion people are infected with STHs worldwide. The World Health Organization goal for 2030 is morbidity control, defined as reaching <2% prevalence of medium-to-high intensity infections in preschool-age children and school-age children (SAC). Treatment guidelines for achieving this goal have been recommended. The Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium has developed mathematical and statistical models to quantify, predict, and evaluate the impact of control measures on STHs. These models show that the morbidity target can be achieved following current guidelines in moderate prevalence settings (20-50% in SAC). In high prevalence settings, semi-annual preventive chemotherapy (PC) ideally including adults, or at least women of reproductive age, is required. For T. trichiura, dual therapy with albendazole and ivermectin is required. In general, stopping PC is not possible without infection resurgence, unless effective measures for improved access to water, hygiene, and sanitation have been implemented, or elimination of transmission has been achieved. Current diagnostic methods are based on egg counts in stool samples, but these are known to have poor sensitivity at low prevalence levels. A target threshold for novel, more sensitive diagnostics should be defined relative to currently preferred diagnostics (Kato-Katz). Our analyses identify the extent of systematic non-access to treatment and the individual patterns of compliance over multiple rounds of treatment as the biggest unknowns and the main impediment to reaching the target. Moreover, the link between morbidity and infection intensity has not been fully elucidated. By providing more insights on all the above, we aim to inform discussions on the goals and treatment guidelines for STHs.

A cluster-randomised controlled trial comparing school and community-based deworming for soil transmitted helminth control in school-age children: the CoDe-STH trial protocol

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines and targets for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control focus on school-based deworming for school-age children, given the high risk of associated morbidity in this age group. However, expanding deworming to all age groups may achieve improved STH control among both the community in general and school-age children, by reducing their risk of reinfection. This trial aims to compare school-based targeted deworming with community-wide mass deworming in terms of impact on STH infections among school-age children.

METHODS

The CoDe-STH (Community Deworming against STH) trial is a cluster-randomised controlled trial (RCT) in 64 primary schools in Dak Lak province, Vietnam. The control arm will receive one round of school-based targeted deworming with albendazole, while in the intervention arm, community-wide mass deworming with albendazole will be implemented alongside school-based deworming. Prevalence of STH infections will be measured in school-age children at baseline and 12 months following deworming. The primary outcome is hookworm prevalence in school-age children at 12 months, by quantitative PCR. Analysis will be intention-to-treat, with outcomes compared between study arms using generalised linear and non-linear mixed models. Additionally, cost-effectiveness of mass and targeted deworming will be calculated and compared, and focus group discussions and interviews will be used to assess acceptability and feasibility of deworming approaches. Individual based stochastic models will be used to predict the impact of mass and targeted deworming strategies beyond the RCT timeframe to assess the likelihood of parasite population 'bounce-back' if deworming is ceased due to low STH prevalence.

DISCUSSION

The first large-scale trial comparing mass and targeted deworming for STH control in South East Asia will provide key information for policy makers regarding the optimal design of STH control programs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ACTRN12619000309189 .

Sampling strategies for monitoring and evaluation of morbidity targets for soil-transmitted helminths

Background

The current World Health Organization (WHO) target for the three major soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections is to reduce prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections to below 1% by 2020. In terms of monitoring and evaluation (M&E), the current WHO guidelines for control of STHs recommend evaluation of infection levels in school-age children (SAC) after five to six years of preventive chemotherapy (PC), using the standard Kato-Katz faecal smear. Here, we assess the predictive performance of various sampling designs for the evaluation of the morbidity target.

Methodology/Principal findings

Using two mathematical models for STH transmission and control, we simulate how the number of villages and SAC sampled affect the ability of survey results in sentinel villages to predict the achievement of the morbidity target in PC implementation units (e.g. districts). As PC is stopped when the prevalence of infection in SAC in sentinel villages is less than 1%, we estimate the positive predictive value (PPV) of this indicator for meeting the morbidity target in the whole district. The PPV varies by species and PC strategy, and it is generally higher in areas with lower pre-control prevalence. Sampling a fixed number of SAC spread out over 10 instead of 5 sentinel villages may increase the PPV by up to 20 percentage points. If every SAC in a village is tested, a higher number of villages may increase the PPV by up to 80 percentage points. Increasing the proportion of SAC tested per village does not result in a relevant increase of PPV.

Conclusions/Significance

Although the WHO guidelines provide a combined strategy to control the three STH species, the efficacy of PC strategies clearly differs by species. There is added value in considering more villages within implementation units for M&E of morbidity targets, the extent varying by STH species. A better understanding of pre- and post-control local STH prevalence levels is essential for an adequate M&E strategy including the definition of morbidity targets at the appropriate geographical scale.

Soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) affect approximately 1.5 billion people worldwide. The World Health Organization target for STHs is to achieve <1% prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections among school-age children (SAC) through preventive chemotherapy (PC) with albendazole or mebendazole. For monitoring and evaluation (M&E) of STH infections, it is recommended to assess the infection levels in SAC after five to six years of treatment and to stop PC if the prevalence of infection is <1%. In this study, we use two mathematical models to assess the predictive performance of different sampling designs for the evaluation of the morbidity target. We find that the efficacy of PC strategies differs significantly by species and pre-control infection levels. Achieving 1% prevalence of infection in sentinel villages may still imply a prevalence of moderate-to-heavy infections >1% in the entire PC implementation unit. Evaluating the prevalence of any infection over a higher number of sentinel villages improves the accuracy in assessing the morbidity target at the implementation unit level, even when a lower proportion of SAC per village is tested. A better understanding of pre- and post-control local STH prevalence levels through large scale data collection is essential for the definition of an adequate M&E strategy for STH control.

Risk factors for infection with soil-transmitted helminths during an integrated community level water, sanitation, and hygiene and deworming intervention in Timor-Leste

Water, sanitation and hygiene interventions have been advocated as important complements to deworming programs to improve soil-transmitted helminth control. Evidence for the impact of water, sanitation and hygiene on soil-transmitted helminth infections is mixed, and based mainly on cross-sectional studies. In this study, we assessed associations between individual- and household-level water, sanitation and hygiene variables and soil-transmitted helminth infections, using data collected during the 2 year follow-up study period of the WASH for WORMS randomised controlled trial in Timor-Leste. Data were collected across four surveys, conducted at 6 monthly intervals in 23 communities. We analysed water, sanitation and hygiene and sociodemographic variables as risk factors for infection with Necator americanus, Ascaris spp., and undifferentiated soil-transmitted helminth infection, using generalised linear mixed models to account for clustering at community, household and participant levels. Water, sanitation and hygiene risk factors were examined both concurrently and with a 6 month lag period that coincided with the most recent deworming. The analysis included 2333 participants. Factors associated with N. americanus infection included age group, male sex (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 3.1, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4-4.2), working as a farmer (aOR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4), and completing secondary school or higher (aOR 0.29, 95% CI 0.16-0.53). Risk factors for Ascaris spp. infection included age group, living in a dwelling with more than six people (aOR 1.6, 95% CI 1.1-2.3), having a tube well or borehole as the household water source (aOR 3.7, 95% CI 1.3-10.8), and using a latrine shared between households 6 months previously (aOR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.3). Handwashing before eating was protective against infection with any soil-transmitted helminth (aOR 0.79, 95% CI 0.65-0.95). In the context of regular deworming, few water, sanitation and hygiene-related factors were associated with soil-transmitted helminth infections. Future research examining the role of water, sanitation and hygiene in soil-transmitted helminth transmission is required, particularly in low transmission settings after cessation of deworming. Identifying improved indicators for measuring water, sanitation and hygiene behaviours is also a key priority.

Predicted short and long-term impact of deworming and water, hygiene, and sanitation on transmission of soil-transmitted helminths

Background

Regular preventive chemotherapy (PCT) targeting high-risk populations is an effective way to control STH in the short term, but sustainable long-term STH control is expected to require improved access to water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). However, experimental studies have not been able to conclusively demonstrate the benefit of WASH in preventing STH (re-)infections. We investigated the impact of WASH on STH infections during and after PCT using mathematical modelling.

Methods and findings

We use the individual-based transmission model WORMSIM to predict the short and long-term impact of WASH on STH transmission in contexts with and without PCT. We distinguish two WASH modalities: sanitation, which reduces individuals’ contributions to environmental contamination; and hygiene, which reduces individuals’ exposure to infection. We simulate the impact of varying levels of uptake and effectiveness of each WASH modality, as well as their combined impact. Clearly, sanitation and hygiene interventions have little observable short-term impact on STH infections levels in the context of PCT. However, in the long term, both are pivotal to sustain control or eliminate infection levels after scaling down or stopping PCT. The impact of hygiene is determined more by the effectiveness of the intervention than its overall uptake, whereas the impact of sanitation depends more directly on the product of uptake and the effectiveness.

Interpretation

The impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, and uptake and effectiveness of the intervention. Also, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure in the context of ongoing PCT programmes. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated.

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH), which are transmitted via faecal contamination of the environment, still infect over 1 billion people in developing countries because of absence or poor access to improved sources of water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH). In this study, we use a mathematical model for transmission and control of STH to investigate to what extent and on what time scale we can expect improved access to WASH to impact STH infection levels. Our predictions confirm findings from experimental studies that in the context of deworming campaigns, the impact of WASH is difficult to measure, which is due the strong and quick impact of deworming masking the slower, more long-term impact of WASH. We further show that the impact of WASH interventions on STH transmission highly depends on the worm species, WASH modality, uptake, effectiveness, and pre-control endemicity. Still, we show a clear added benefit of WASH to sustain the gains made by PCT in the long term, such that PCT may be scaled down or even stopped altogether. To safely stop or scale down PCT, policy for WASH and PCT should be integrated.

The effect of assortative mixing on stability of low helminth transmission levels and on the impact of mass drug administration: Model explorations for onchocerciasis

Background

Stable low pre-control prevalences of helminth infection are not uncommon in field settings, yet it is poorly understood how such low levels can be sustained, thereby challenging efforts to model them. Disentangling possible facilitating mechanisms is important, since these may differently affect intervention impact. Here we explore the role of assortative (i.e. non-homogenous) mixing and exposure heterogeneity in helminth transmission, using onchocerciasis as an example.

Methodology/Principal findings

We extended the established individual-based model ONCHOSIM to allow for assortative mixing, assuming that individuals who are relatively more exposed to fly bites are more connected to each other than other individuals in the population as a result of differential exposure to a sub-population of blackflies. We used the model to investigate how transmission stability, equilibrium microfilarial (mf) prevalence and intensity, and impact of mass drug administration depend on the assumed degree of assortative mixing and exposure heterogeneity, for a typical rural population of about 400 individuals. The model clearly demonstrated that with homogeneous mixing and moderate levels of exposure heterogeneity, onchocerciasis could not be sustained below 35% mf prevalence. In contrast, assortative mixing stabilised onchocerciasis prevalence at levels as low as 8% mf prevalence. Increasing levels of assortative mixing significantly reduced the probability of interrupting transmission, given the same duration and coverage of mass drug administration.

Conclusions/Significance

Assortative mixing patterns are an important factor to explain stable low prevalence situations and are highly relevant for prospects of elimination. Their effect on the pre-control distribution of mf intensities in human populations is only detectable in settings with mf prevalences <30%, where high skin mf density in mf-positive people may be an indication of assortative mixing. Local spatial variation in larval infection intensity in the blackfly intermediate host may also be an indicator of assortative mixing.

Most mathematical models for parasitic worm infections predict that at low prevalences transmission will fade out spontaneously because of the low mating probability of male and female worms. However, sustained low prevalence situations do exist in reality. Low prevalence areas have become of particular interest now that several worm infections are being targeted for elimination and the question arises whether transmission in such areas is driven locally and should be targeted with interventions. We hypothesise that an explanation for the existence of low prevalence areas is assortative mixing, which is the preferential mixing of high-risk groups among themselves and which has been shown to play an important role in transmission of other infectious diseases. For onchocerciasis, assortative mixing would mean that transmission is sustained by a sub-group of people and a connected sub-population of the blackfly intermediate host that mix preferentially with each other. Using a mathematical model, we study how assortative mixing allows for sustained low prevalences and show that it decreases the probability of interrupting transmission by means of mass drug administration. We further identify data sources that may be used to quantify the degree of assortative mixing in field settings.

Comparison and validation of two mathematical models for the impact of mass drug administration on Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection

The predictions of two mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of Ascaris lumbricoides and hookworm infection and the impact of mass drug administration (MDA) are compared, using data from India. One model has an age structured partial differential equation (PDE) deterministic framework for the distribution of parasite numbers per host and sexual mating. The second model is an individual-based stochastic model. Baseline data acquired prior to treatment are used to estimate key transmission parameters, and forward projections are made, given the known MDA population coverage. Predictions are compared with observed post-treatment epidemiological patterns. The two models could equally well predict the short-term impact of deworming on A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection levels, despite being fitted to different subsets and/or summary statistics of the data. As such, the outcomes give confidence in their use as aids to policy formulation for the use of PCT to control A. lumbricoides and hookworm infection. The models further largely agree in a qualitative sense on the added benefit of semi-annual vs. annual deworming and targeting of the entire population vs. only children, as well as the potential for interruption of transmission. Further, this study also illustrates that long-term predictions are sensitive to modelling assumptions about which age groups contribute most to transmission, which depends on human demography and age-patterns in exposure and contribution to the environmental reservoir of infection, the latter being notoriously difficult to empirically quantify.

100 Years of Mass Deworming Programmes: A Policy Perspective From the World Bank's Disease Control Priorities Analyses

For more than 100 years, countries have used mass drug administration as a public health response to soil-transmitted helminth infection. The series of analyses published as Disease Control Priorities is the World Bank's vehicle for exploring the cost-effectiveness and value for money of public health interventions. The first edition was published in 1993 as a technical supplement to the World Bank's World Development Report Investing in Health where deworming was used as an illustrative example of value for money in treating diseases with relatively low morbidity but high prevalence. Over the second (2006) and now third (2017) editions deworming has been an increasingly persuasive example to use for this argument. The latest analyses recognize the negative impact of intestinal worm infection on human capital in poor communities and document a continuing decline in worm infection as a result of the combination of high levels of mass treatment and ongoing economic development trends in poor communities.

Estimation of the number of women of reproductive age in need of preventive chemotherapy for soil-transmitted helminth infections

Background

Soil-transmitted helminth infections are among the most common infections in developing countries. Globally, as many as 2 billion people are considered to be at risk for soil-transmitted-helminth (STH) infections. Preschool children (PSAC), school-age children (SAC) and women of reproductive age (WRA) are at high risk of STH-attributable morbidity and preventive chemotherapy (PC) for STH is recommended by the World health Organization (WHO).

Methodology/Principal findings

Over the last five years, PC coverage in PSAC and SAC has gradually increased, while coverage in WRA has lagged. Estimating the numbers of WRA in each endemic country would inform scale-up in this group. A two-step process was used: 1) total numbers of girls and women between 15 and 49 years of age were obtained from the United Nations World Population Prospects 2015 database; and 2) the proportion in need of PC was obtained primarily from extrapolation from the WHO PC Databank. WRA were divided into four sub-groups reflecting different reproductive life stages, each having a potentially different interface with the health care system and, consequently, presenting different opportunities for intervention strategies.

Worldwide, we estimated that 688 million WRA in 102 countries were in need of PC for STH in 2015. The South-East Asia (49%) and Africa regions (26%) had the highest numbers. Adolescent girls accounted for 16%, while pregnant and lactating women each represented 10%. Over 25 million pregnant women alone were estimated living in areas where the prevalence of hookworm and T. trichiura infection was ≥ 20%. Approximately 20% of at-risk WRA had received deworming with albendazole through the Global Programme to Eliminate Filariasis.

Conclusions/Significance

To close current gaps in coverage, numbers of WRA in need of PC for STH are essential for operational strategies to control STH infection.

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are intestinal worms that cause morbidity in many people worldwide; children and women of reproductive-age (WRA) are the group most at risk of these infections. The primary control strategy is the periodic anthelminthic treatment of people at risk of STH. Over the last five years, the numbers of children receiving deworming have increased but coverage in WRA has remained low. We compiled data on the number of WRA in STH-endemic countries and estimated the number of WRA in need of PC. This will enable us to develop the necessary operational strategies to control STH infection in WRA.

Combined effectiveness of anthelmintic chemotherapy and WASH among HIV-infected adults

Introduction

Current global helminth control guidelines focus on regular deworming of targeted populations for morbidity control. However, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) interventions may also be important for reducing helminth transmission. We evaluated the impact of different potential helminth protective packages on infection prevalence, including repeated treatment with albendazole and praziquantel with and without WASH access.

Methodology/Principal findings

We conducted a cohort study nested within a randomized trial of empiric deworming of HIV-infected adults in Kenya. Helminth infections and infection intensity were diagnosed using semi-quantitative real-time PCR. We conducted a manual forward stepwise model building approach to identify if there are packages of interventions that may be protective against an STH infection of any species (combined outcome) and each helminth species individually. We conducted secondary analyses using the same approach only amongst individuals with no anthelmintis exposure. We used interaction terms to test for potential intervention synergy. Approximately 22% of the 701 stool samples provided were helminth-infected, most of which were of low to moderate intensity. The odds of infection with any STH species were lower for individuals who were treated with albendazole (aOR:0.11, 95%CI: 0.05, 0.20, p<0.001), adjusting for age and sex. Although most WASH conditions demonstrated minimal additional benefit in reducing the probability of infection with any STH species, access to safe flooring did appear to offer some additional protection (aOR:0.34, 95%CI: 0.20, 0.56, p<0.001). For schistosomiasis, only treatment with praziquantel was protective (aOR:0.30 95%CI: 0.14, 0.60, p = 0.001). Amongst individuals who were not treated with albendazole or praziquantel, the most protective intervention package to reduce probability of STH infections included safe flooring (aOR:0.34, 95%CI: 0.20, 0.59, p<0.001) and latrine access (aOR:0.59, 95%CI: 0.35, 0.99, p = 0.05). Across all species, there was no evidence of synergy or antagonism between anthelmintic chemotherapy with albendazole or praziquantel and WASH resources.

Conclusions/Significance

Deworming is effective in reducing the probability of helminth infections amongst HIV-infected adults. With the exception of safe flooring, WASH offers minimal additional benefit. However, WASH does appear to significantly reduce infection prevalence in adults who are not treated with chemotherapy.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00507221.

More than 2 billion people are infected with soil transmitted helminthiasis (STH) and schistosomiasis globally. In addition to deworming with albendazole and praziquantel, water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) may be needed to reduce the risk of helminth reinfection and ultimately to break transmission. However evidence on the effectiveness of integrated deworming and WASH programs are mixed. Using data from a randomized controlled trial of deworming among HIV-infected adults in Kenya, we evaluated the associations between different potential packages of deworming and WASH interventions with helminth prevalence. We also aimed to understand if there was a benefit to accessing both WASH and deworming (i.e. synergy). Our findings indicate that deworming treatments were effective in reducing the probability of infection with most helminth species. Of the WASH conditions assessed, safe flooring and latrine access significantly reduced the probability of helminth infections among adults with access to treatment. However WASH may play a more prominent protective role among individuals without access to deworming treatments. These findings also suggest minimal synergistic benefit of coordinated anthelmintic chemotherapy and WASH in this population. These findings have important implications for adult populations who are currently not targeted by deworming campaigns.

Testing for soil-transmitted helminth transmission elimination: Analysing the impact of the sensitivity of different diagnostic tools

In recent years, an increased focus has been placed upon the possibility of the elimination of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) transmission using various interventions including mass drug administration. The primary diagnostic tool recommended by the WHO is the detection of STH eggs in stool using the Kato-Katz (KK) method. However, detecting infected individuals using this method becomes increasingly difficult as the intensity of infection decreases. Newer techniques, such as qPCR, have been shown to have greater sensitivity than KK, especially at low prevalence. However, the impact of using qPCR on elimination thresholds is yet to be investigated. In this paper, we aim to quantify how the sensitivity of these two diagnostic tools affects the optimal prevalence threshold at which to declare the interruption of transmission with a defined level of confidence. A stochastic, individual-based STH transmission model was used in this study to simulate the transmission dynamics of Ascaris and hookworm. Data from a Kenyan deworming study were used to parameterize the diagnostic model which was based on egg detection probabilities. The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were calculated to assess the quality of any given threshold, with the optimal threshold value taken to be that at which both were maximised. The threshold prevalence of infection values for declaring elimination of Ascaris transmission were 6% and 12% for KK and qPCR respectively. For hookworm, these threshold values are lower at 0.5% and 2% respectively. Diagnostic tests with greater sensitivity are becoming increasingly important as we approach the elimination of STH transmission in some regions of the world. For declaring the elimination of transmission, using qPCR to diagnose STH infection results in the definition of a higher prevalence, than when KK is used.

Prospects for elimination of soil-transmitted helminths

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are endemic in 120 countries and are associated with substantial morbidity and loss of economic productivity. Although current WHO guidelines focus on morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA), there is global interest in whether a strategy targeting disease elimination might be feasible in some settings. This review summarizes the prospects for switching from control to an elimination strategy.

RECENT FINDINGS

STH control efforts have reduced the intensity of infections in targeted populations with associated reductions in morbidity. However, adults are not frequently targeted and remain important reservoirs for reinfection of treated children. Recent modeling suggests that transmission interruption may be possible through expanded community-wide delivery of MDA, the feasibility of which has been demonstrated by other programs. However, these models suggest that high levels of coverage and compliance must be achieved. Potential challenges include the risk of prematurely dismantling STH programs and the potential increased risk of antihelminthic resistance.

SUMMARY

Elimination of STH may offer an opportunity to eliminate substantial STH-related morbidity while reducing resource needs of neglected tropical disease programs. Evidence from large community trials is needed to determine the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH in some geographic settings.

Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351). This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

Differential effect of mass deworming and targeted deworming for soil-transmitted helminth control in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Soil-transmitted helminth infections are a major global health issue, causing substantial morbidity in the world's poorest populations. Regular delivery of anthelmintic drugs is the mainstay for global soil-transmitted helminth control. Deworming campaigns are often targeted to school-aged children, who are at high risk of soil-transmitted-helminth-associated morbidity. However, findings from modelling studies suggest that deworming campaigns should be expanded community-wide for effective control of soil-transmitted helminth transmission. We aimed to do a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the effect of mass (community-wide) and targeted (children only) anthelmintic delivery strategies on soil-transmitted helminth prevalence in school-aged children.

METHODS

In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Web of Science for articles published on or before Nov 5, 2015, reporting soil-transmitted helminth prevalence before and after distribution of albendazole or mebendazole, either targeted to children or delivered to the whole community. We excluded studies in which drug delivery was restricted to infected individuals or to a subset of the community or school, or if follow-up time was less than 3 months or greater than 18 months after drug delivery. We extracted data on study year, country, drug administration strategy, drug dose, number of deworming rounds, treatment coverage, diagnostic method, follow-up interval, and soil-transmitted helminth prevalence before and after treatment. We used inverse variance weighted generalised linear models, with prevalence reduction as the outcome variable, to examine the effect of mass versus targeted drug administration, as well as baseline prevalence, number of drug doses, and follow-up time. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016026929.

FINDINGS

Of 10 538 studies identified, 56 studies were eligible for the systematic review and 38 of these were included in meta-analysis. Results of the regression models showed that mass deworming led to a significantly greater reduction in prevalence in children than targeted deworming, for both hookworm (odds ratio 4·6, 95% CI 1·8-11·6; p=0·0020) and Ascaris lumbricoides (16·4, 2·1-125·8; p=0·0092), with no effect seen for Trichuris trichiura. There was significant heterogeneity across studies; for targeted studies I² was 97% for A lumbricoides and hookworm, and 96% for T trichiura, and for mass studies, I² was 89% for A lumbricoides, 49% for hookworm, and 66% for T trichiura.

INTERPRETATION

The results of this meta-analysis suggest that expanding deworming programmes community-wide is likely to reduce the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths in the high-risk group of school-aged children, which could lead to improved morbidity outcomes. These findings are in support of recent calls for re-evaluation of global soil-transmitted helminth control guidelines.

FUNDING

None.

Hookworm infection

Hookworms are soil-transmitted nematode parasites that can reside for many years in the small intestine of their human hosts; Necator americanus is the predominant infecting species. Adult worms feed on the blood of a host and can cause iron deficiency anaemia, especially in high-risk populations (children and women of childbearing age). Almost 500 million people in developing tropical countries are infected, and simulation models estimate that hookworm infection is responsible for >4 million disability-adjusted life years lost annually. Humans mount an immune response to hookworms, but it is mostly unsuccessful at removing adult worms from the bowel. Accordingly, the host switches to an immune-tolerant state that enables hookworms to reside in the gut for many years. Although anthelmintic drugs are available and widely used, their efficacy varies and the drugs do not prevent reinfection. Thus, other control strategies aimed at improving water quality, sanitation and hygiene are needed. In addition, efforts are underway to develop a human hookworm vaccine through public-private partnerships. However, hookworms could also be a resource; as hookworms have the capability to regulate the host's inflammation, researchers are experimentally infecting patients to treat some inflammatory diseases as an approach to discover new anti-inflammatory molecules. This area of endeavour might well yield new biotherapeutics for autoimmune and allergic diseases.

Compliance with anthelmintic treatment in the neglected tropical diseases control programmes: a systematic review

Preventive chemotherapy (PCT) programmes are used to control five of the highest burden neglected tropical diseases (NTDs): soil-transmitted helminth infections (hookworm, ascariasis, and trichuriasis), lymphatic filariasis, schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and trachoma. Over the past decade, new resource commitments for the NTDs have enabled such programmes to intensify their control efforts, and for some diseases, to shift from goals of morbidity control to the interruption of transmission and elimination. To successfully eliminate the parasite reservoir, these programmes will undoubtedly require prolonged, high treatment coverage. However, it is important to consider that even when coverage levels reach an acceptable proportion of the target population, there may be a considerable gap between coverage (those who receive the drug) and compliance (those who actually consume the drug)—a topic of fundamental and perhaps underestimated importance. We conducted a systematic review of published literature that investigated compliance to PCT programmes for NTD control and elimination. Databases searched included PubMed/Medline, Web of Knowledge (including Web of Science), OVID, and Scopus. Data were collected on compliance rates, reasons for non-compliance, as well as the heterogeneity of compliance definitions and calculations across programmes and studies. A total of 112 studies were selected for inclusion. The findings of the review revealed substantial heterogeneity across compliance terms and definitions; an imbalance of available studies for particular disease areas and countries; and finally, a lack of longitudinal compliance studies to properly investigate the role of systematic non-compliance. The lack of consistency among reporting of compliance data can result in under- or over-estimating compliance in a population, and therefore has serious implications for setting and reaching elimination targets. Reframing of the guidelines on compliance definitions coupled with an urgent call for longitudinal research in systematic non-compliance should be essential elements in the programmatic shift from control to elimination.

Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

Quantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an overview of a collection of novel model-based analyses which aim to address key questions on the dynamics of transmission and control of nine NTDs: Chagas disease, visceral leishmaniasis, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis and trachoma. Several common themes resonate throughout these analyses, including: the importance of epidemiological setting on the success of interventions; targeting groups who are at highest risk of infection or re-infection; and reaching populations who are not accessing interventions and may act as a reservoir for infection,. The results also highlight the challenge of maintaining elimination 'as a public health problem' when true elimination is not reached. The models elucidate the factors that may be contributing most to persistence of disease and discuss the requirements for eventually achieving true elimination, if that is possible. Overall this collection presents new analyses to inform current control initiatives. These papers form a base from which further development of the models and more rigorous validation against a variety of datasets can help to give more detailed advice. At the moment, the models' predictions are being considered as the world prepares for a final push towards control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases by 2020.

What impact will the achievement of the current World Health Organisation targets for anthelmintic treatment coverage in children have on the intensity of soil transmitted helminth infections?

BACKGROUND

It is the aim of the World Health Organisation to eliminate soil-transmitted helminths (STH) as a health problem in children. To this end, the goal is to increase anthelmintic treatment coverage for soil transmitted helminths to reach 75 % in pre-school aged and school aged children by 2020 in endemic countries. In this paper, we use mathematical models to investigate the impact of achieving this goal on the burdens of Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichuria and hookworm.

METHODS

We employ a deterministic fully age-structured model of STH transmission and mass drug administration to examine the changes in worm burden in response to the known and projected coverage trends in children up to 2020 and beyond. Parameters are estimated from worm expulsion data and age intensity profiles before treatment using maximum likelihood methods. Model validation is performed using reinfection studies for Ascaris and analyses are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the predicted outcomes to variation in parameter estimates including transmission intensity (R0), children's contributions to the pool of infective stages and drug coverage levels.

RESULTS

The impact of the required increase in coverage trends are quite different across the three species. Ascaris burdens are reduced dramatically by 2020 with elimination predicted within studied the setting a further 10 years. For Trichuris and hookworm, however, impact is more limited, due to issues of drug efficacy (Trichuris) and distribution of worms in the population (hookworm). Sensitivity analysis indicates that results are largely robust. However, validation against Ascaris data indicates that assumptions concerning re-infection among children may have to be revised.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2020 coverage target is predicted to have a major impact on Ascaris levels by 2020. However, there is evidence from model validation that Ascaris in children is more resilient to treatment than currently assumed in the model. Broader coverage across all age classes is required to break transmission for hookworm and alternative dual drug treatment approaches are needed for Trichuris.

Required duration of mass ivermectin treatment for onchocerciasis elimination in Africa: a comparative modelling analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious targets for the elimination of onchocerciasis by 2020–2025 through mass ivermectin treatment. Two different mathematical models have assessed the feasibility of reaching this goal for different settings and treatment scenarios, namely the individual-based microsimulation model ONCHOSIM and the population-based deterministic model EPIONCHO. In this study, we harmonize some crucial assumptions and compare model predictions on common outputs.

Methods

Using a range of initial endemicity levels and treatment scenarios, we compared the models with respect to the following outcomes: 1) model-predicted trends in microfilarial (mf) prevalence and mean mf intensity during 25 years of (annual or biannual) mass ivermectin treatment; 2) treatment duration needed to bring mf prevalence below a provisional operational threshold for treatment interruption (pOTTIS, i.e. 1.4 %), and 3) treatment duration needed to drive the parasite population to local elimination, even in the absence of further interventions. Local elimination was judged by stochastic fade-out in ONCHOSIM and by reaching transmission breakpoints in EPIONCHO.

Results

ONCHOSIM and EPIONCHO both predicted that in mesoendemic areas the pOTTIS can be reached with annual treatment, but that this strategy may be insufficient in very highly hyperendemic areas or would require prolonged continuation of treatment. For the lower endemicity levels explored, ONCHOSIM predicted that the time needed to reach the pOTTIS is longer than that needed to drive the parasite population to elimination, whereas for the higher endemicity levels the opposite was true. In EPIONCHO, the pOTTIS was reached consistently sooner than the breakpoint.

Conclusions

The operational thresholds proposed by APOC may have to be adjusted to adequately reflect differences in pre-control endemicities. Further comparative modelling work will be conducted to better understand the main causes of differences in model-predicted trends. This is a pre-requisite for guiding elimination programmes in Africa and refining operational criteria for stopping mass treatment.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-015-1159-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.